Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is time for full
court Press right here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel,
and Rob Bino, we have to We always start each
show with a recap and I'm gonna let you go
first today because my recap has a segue into our
first game. But before we get into it, how about
those Siena College Saints. They're going dancing for the first
time in sixteen years. I didn't realize as a kid
and a student how spoiled I was, because, of course,
when I was a young kid growing up in the
Albany area in Schenectady, we had Paul Hewitt, had we
had NCAA tournament teams. With Paul Hewitt. Rob Lanier took
us to an NCAA tournament as a sixteen seed in
a year they weren't supposed to go. And then when
I was in college, my senior year, we go and
we beat Vanderbilt and then the sub the two years
after that, a win over Ohio State and another NCAAA
tournament appearance where we fell short against Purdue, and then
nothing since then, Rob, it's just been you know, I
just assumed every couple of years Cianna would go to
the NCAA tournament, and it has been the longest drought
for them since becoming a Division one program. But that
was put to bed last night a phenomenal game plan
by Jerry McNamara to force Kavert Kennedy to shoot the
ball and shout out to Gmac and the Saints. I
know a lot of I have excused Sianna people that
watch this show, So let's go. I can't I can't
wait to see where we get seated in that bracket.
But for for the recap, rob talk to me if
you if you want to add anything there, go ahead,
but talk to me about how your night was last night.
Speaker 2: Yeah, First off, yesterday I commented, I'm not wearing Sienna Green,
so now that they've won the tied light show up
in Sienna Green. Big win by them last night against Merramack.
Good good night. Not great for me though, Adam wrong
opinions on a couple of games here, Portland's State being
one of those Montana State. I did notice that inside
our full court press package, you helped us out by
playing the other side stronger.
Speaker 1: So I was gonna say that might be the first
time we were on opposite sides of a side this year.
I think that first time that was.
Speaker 2: A really good showing out of Montana. No question, Portland
State still could not hit a three in that game,
and the Gonzaga team total over eighty two and a
half only make it to the high seventies. Took a
long while for them to get rolling. I think they
put up like twenty eight almost thirty points over the
course of the last ten minutes. But until then, boy,
Santa Clara, let's give Santa Clara credit. I mean, when
this tournament started, commented on how much I liked the team.
I thought the Saint Mary's matchup was bad for them.
Didn't prove out to be. They figured it out second half,
and then of course last night played Gonzaga real tough
to show the committee that they do belong. I'm glad
they get their seat in there. I'm certainly not glad
that that I didn't get the eighty three points last night.
So we look to hit the board a little better today.
It's not often I have to come on here and
say I did lousy, but last night it did lousy.
Speaker 1: Listen, you you have more of it. You're overdue from
just how well you started the season. It's me that
can't afford the bad day or two right now because
I had a bad November in December. I'm I'm I'm
still in makeup mode from those first two months, whereas
you kind of padded your bankroll nicely in those first
two two months of the season. So it's gonna happen.
And that's going to be my segue into our feature
game today, Rob, because I gotta be honest. When I
got off the show, you and I usually chat for
a minute. I go, you know a lot of times
with the way that my day works, because I'm prepping
for this show, cramming to get all the stuff ready,
I usually, you know, finally eat something for today for
the day after this show. And so Rob, I get
off the show, I do our timestamps quick, I go
eat some lunch. I pull up my odds screen and
Baylor is a six and a half point favorite, and
I gave him on the show at three and a half,
or I gave him to clients at three and a half,
and I think by the time we got on the
show it was still four. So I'm feeling pretty good
about myself in that one, Rob, and Baylor was nowhere
to be found totally the wrong side. Didn't matter if
you had three and a half, six and a half,
ten and a half, whatever, you know, it could have
been any number that was the wrong side. They just
did not show up for that game. And credit to
Arizona State. And this is the segue into our feature game,
Credit to Arizona State. They had a great game plan,
they had more energy, and you could pretty much tell
first ten to fifteen minutes of that game that it
was going to be a real issue for Baylor to
come back. And even you know, they made a little
bit of a run, but ultimately Arizona State got it done.
Now on a quick turnaround, Robino, it's Iowa State, and
even as I've criticized i was this year in the
context of the top ten teams in the league, this
is a much tougher ask in my opinion, for Arizona State.
So talk to me, Iowa State, Arizona State. It's another
early Big twelve tournament tip.
Speaker 2: Yes, certainly was a tough ask. Not too long ago, Adam,
I mean four days ago they played Iowa State and
got run out of the building in aimes eighty six
sixty five. So that led to which I guess it's
not yet a signed, sealed and delivered deal that Bobby
Hurley has fired. I mean, I guess it's like ninety
five percent sure, but I haven't seen. I guess I
was reading something that said, you know that soon expected
to be released head coach, and you know came out
here yes, saying I an only opinion. Like I always say,
we're not in the locker rooms. I didn't think that
Bobby Hurley was the type of coach that the kids
would rise up for. They did rise up yesterday. Baylor
really didn't have a chance, like you explained, But again,
now they play a team that I would say somewhat
underachieved this season. I think you'd probably agreed that we
thought better things for Iowa State, not that they were
a bad team, but that we expected them to be
more omni in the elite conversation than they are currently.
That sets up for a tournament like this with Iowa
State a chance to regroup, a chance to re establish,
a chance to get their minds right for the NCAA tournament.
So I would expect they come out here fired up. Now.
The only question, Adam here is the point spread, which
I'm not willing to lay eleven and a half with
Iowa State simply based on the fact that, and I've
said this before, their scoring is inconsistent. And I've played
maybe two, maybe three team totals that I thought were
well within their range given the opponent they were playing,
and Arizona State would fit that bill again today, soft
defensive type team Iowa States should score and they just
don't manage to get to their team total leave me
a couple of buckets short whatever. So offensively it's been
sporadic for them, which makes it difficult to lay the
eleven and a half first time in the building here
for Iowa State first, you know, first tournament games. So
do they get adjusted to the rims right away? Do
you never know the answer to that? Some teams come
out hot as heck, some teams come out ice cold
and then proceed to get better as the game goes on.
Their team total in this one is seventy nine and
a half, right around the range where I've been playing them.
I'm so tempted, you know, rather than lay eleven and
a half to just play Iowa State to get to
eighty today against this defense and against the team that
maybe see here's here's the question, right, it's what again
twenty twenty hindsight is great, But did Arizona play Arizona
State play their game yesterday and leave it all on
the floor yesterday and come out and get beat, you know,
eighty six sixty five like they just did four days
ago by this team. Totally possible. Not willing to lay
the eleven and a half, but I do think Io
State should score here, Adam, I don't see a lot
of problem with them reaching eighty a game. That's total
team total right now, it's seventy nine and a half,
so I would probably look that way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I am tempted to play the eleven and a half.
I do think the number, you know, is pretty close,
so I made it twelve point one. So I don't
see a monster number edge there for me. But just
you know, go back to that game a few days ago,
and you want to talk about, Okay, what happens if
Arizona State comes out hot or if they've got the
maybe the upper hand in the early going because they've
had a game on this court. Rob Arizona State in
that game over the weekend, was up four at halftime,
forty one to thirty seven in the season finale, they
led that game, and i Was State still covered the
sixteen and a half at Hilton on the strength of
a forty nine to twenty four second half, and that's
where this game sort of is going to be decided.
In my opinion. The difference between Baylor and Iowa State
is Baylor is atrocious defensively, just horrible.
Speaker 2: They've been.
Speaker 1: It's been a thing that's been going on for years
now at Baylor, Like because if you remember, not five
short years ago, Rob, although it seems like a long
time ago, Baylor wins a national championship with guards that
defended as good as anyone in the country, and like,
it's just the teams that Scott Drew has put together
the last few years have been really bad defensively, and
this one is no different. And Arizona State had a
great game plan and they were able to exploit Baylor's
very weak defense. My problem, the issue I kind of
see here with Arizona State is I was I was
to say, it's still really defensively, Like, even with the
issues they have putting the ball the basket, their defense
is so good Rob that on defense alone, here I
could see Iowa State creating a double digit margin. But
then you might be in the scenario where, Okay, I'm
sitting there with a minus eleven and a half, which
looks like it's pretty open and available out there. You know,
is I was staate gonna go up fifteen seventeen and
let them back in or is this a scenario where
they're just gonna like step on their throat, go for
the jugular and finish a game. Because remember this game,
Sleepy twelve thirty start a little bit different than final
game of the year at Hilton Coliseum, Like that's a
different environment. So I like Iowa State, I still would
bet them at eleven and a half if you wanted
to bet this game. But for me, I just did
not have a big enough like edge in the number
to want to lay that many points. And that's just
that simple. If I was picking this game rob well,
which we are because we do a show where people
weren't picked, I'm laying the eleven or the eleven and
a half with the Cyclones.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like we could be on the same
side parlay here, because like I say, if I'm good
at play, it's gonna be Iowa State team total over
and thinking they get to eighty. I just you know,
you said something front part of your analysis where I
thought back in watching that game Saturday, you jogged my memory.
There was an insane, an insane second half run in
that game by Iowa State where all of a sudden,
I looked up. You know, I've got three monitors on
at once, and this one didn't have volume, and they're
losing the game, and I kind of looked up like
that at the screen and all of a sudden saw
Iowa State up by double digits, and I'm like, what
the heck happened there? What happened there for anybody who
didn't watch, was the opening ten minutes of the second
half went twenty four to four. Iowa State twenty four
to four. Defense came in lockdown, offense went crazy, and
Arizona State is so susceptible to giving up huge point
totals that you know, I kind of feel this way,
I'll say it again that I always stink needs to
re establish themselves as a credible. Remember you and I
were talking about you had a conversation with somebody who's
you were talking about Iris State maybe being fraudulent for
the national.
Speaker 1: Title right where for where they're ranked.
Speaker 2: Right right, And they need to correct that because that's
the perception now and it wasn't the way we talked
about them prior to January one. Even after January one,
we're still talking about them as an E lead eight team.
So I think they've got the talent to do it.
We'll see how it goes. But if I had to play,
I'd be playing their team total.
Speaker 1: Over, Yeah and one. I'll make one final point before
we move on to a different game. Iowa State force
twenty three turnovers in that game with Arizona State last week.
That is the main reason for the run, right they.
I mean that's how that is how you go on
a twenty four to four run. Most of the time
you're forcing turnovers and open play and getting easy buckets
off of an offensive Misscuba Arizona State eight. My gut
tells me that we see that happen at some point
in this game where Arizona State they don't take great
care of the basketball. Baylor wasn't gonna expose him in
that regard, but Iowa State certainly ken and yeah, one
of those kill shot knockout punches. Zeno from Iowa State
and suddenly you could be sitting there down fifteen with
the sun devils trying to battle your way into the
back door. So Iowa State or pass for me on
this one. It seems like you like the team total
and were aligned to start the day. So I think
we're off to a good start here, Rob. And because
we're off to such a good start, I'm gonna I'm
gonna go now for the parlay, and I'm gonna give you, guys,
one of my client plays. Another reason I'm gonna give
this client play out is it tips up at eleven
thirty am, so some legitimate breakfast basketball. I'm on the
East coast, so it is lunch. I ate my lunch
at eleven thirty because I've already been up for most
of the day at this point. But yeah, we've got
a lunchtime tip here Saint Bonaventure. I've worn my zip
up here, Rob. When Saint Francis leaves D one after
this year, we'll be down to two Franciscan universities left
in Division one. Those two Franciscan university universities are Siena
and Saint Bonaventure, and they play every year for something
called the Franciscan Cup, so Olian's only a couple hours
For me. I like to see the local teams do well,
and this was not a good year for the local
team Saint Bonaventure. If you know, the real local team
Syracuse Is probably had the worst year of anyone, but
Saint Bonaventure. Rob, we like this team. At one point
in November and December they managed to turn around and
go four and fourteen in Atlantic ten play. Of course,
we know that they're going to move on from Mark Schmidt,
but it's a little to me, it's a little bit
of a different scenario because Mark Schmidt two decades at
olan took a Saint Bonaventure team over that I believe
got like the death penalty or had to cancel their
season if I remember correctly, way back in the early
two thousands, I'm pretty sure the Bonnies had to like
cancel the rest of the A season and then Schmid
took over after that. This is one Rob where you said,
Danny Hurley or Bobby Hurley, you don't know if they
were going to show up for Bobby Hurley. You didn't
You weren't really sure how that dynamic was going.
Speaker 2: To take place.
Speaker 1: I think the bond, I think this Saint Bonaventure team
shows up for March for Schmidt because I just think
he's sort of revered in that area for the turnaround
over the last two decades. And you look at LaSalle
rob they're very banged up, Like, how is LaSalle hanging
this game? I love the Bonnie here and I'm curious
as to what you you sort of see in this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been an interesting year for Saint bontovitchadav and
the one thing that really didn't correlate with a Mark
Schmidt coach team was the defensive output on that side
of the floor for Saint Bonnie. For years, you recognize
them as kind of a I don't know, sixty to
fifty five type team, sixty five to sixty one type team,
hard nos defense making up shots. Here the exact opposite,
right he Their defense was like a SIEV teams going
through them. However, the South hits that qualification as well,
so you got two rather poor defenses. But the difference
in offensive output here between these two is like night
and day. Saint Bonnie the better offensive team. All that said,
it's been a while since these two have played. LaSalle
did win that game seventy eight to seventy four, well
over the total in this one. The problem for LaSalle again,
like you just stated, there's gonna be some injuries here.
I'm one again. I kind of subscribe to the theory
that friend and colleague Ski Profit always brings up to me.
If I can't trust you to get stops, I can't
trust you to cover numbers. And generally speaking, when we
say that, it's in terms of covering larger numbers. This
number is in a range where I don't know if
that applies. I think that Saint Bonnie probably could score
less out in their current condition by this amount. I
understand the move downward in the total. But then again,
that's helpful to Saint Bonaventure in their team total. In
other words, they get penalized in this total move somewhat
for the South having a banged up roster here, so
the number comes down their team total, you have to
equate everything. It goes down seventy four and a half.
I see some seventy fives and halves out there now,
so people playing the side up a little bit. I
could see that happening in this game again, you're in
you know, this Pittsburgh Pints Arena, which is not necessarily
an NBA arena, but still I don't think sightlines should
be very manageable here. It's not a stadium type setting,
so I don't know. I guess it's slight leaning here
towards the Saint Bonaventcure team total over because of res
current conditions in the form full season form of the
LaSalle defense, and on top of that, the seventy eight
to seventy four final in their only meeting, albeit a
while back. I think the same type of you know,
mid to upper seventies total could take place for Saint
Bonnie here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I want to go back to that regular
season meeting for a second. Rob. These two teams only
played once during the regular season. The game was in Philly.
LaSalle was the home team, and LASAL won that game
seventy eight seventy four. But when you pull up the
box score, Rob, you have Jerome Brewer went for twenty
seven and Jaden Marshall went for twenty three, and neither
of those guys will be on the court today for
Lasal because they're both hurt. So you look at you know,
fifty of Lasal's seventy eight points in that win over
Saint Bonaventure came from two guys that will not play
today neutral floor early Like I get you know, I
thought the five and a half number was low. It
looks like it's up to six and a half and
six some places. That doesn't surprise me at all. Yeah,
can the eleven thirty am tip be a little bit sleepy?
It can, But we're talking about over the course of
forty minutes. And Rob Blake, you know, the A ten,
the bottom half of the A ten. If you're Saint Bonaventure,
you've got to be looking at the next two days
and saying, you know, we can, we can get to
day three. These are not like, you know, these are
not great teams at the bottom of the A ten.
Where so I think you see, you know, just based
on the schedule and how it played out, like Loyola
Chicago and Saint Bonaventure are down there at four and
fourteen in league play. For me, Saint Bonaventure is just
like a much superior team to Loyola Chicago. Yeah, I
think they sort of got priced as bottom options in
their respective games today. Like, but the Bonnies, in my opinion,
deserve more respect than they're getting relative to the other
bottom teams in the league. And then I looked at
the number five and a half and I said, you know,
I don't think that those two guys are priced in
the way they should be Brewer and Marshall, especially based
on what they did in the first meeting. So client
played for me, Saint Bonaventure are our Franciscan brother here
in the state of New York to Sienna minus five
and a half eleven thirty am tip, it's up to
six and a half some places. I see six is
out there. We're gonna put that in the parlay and
well we'll just take you know, we'll probably have to
add juice. But I agree with that move. I think
the Bonnies roll today.
Speaker 2: Yeah, fifty of seventy eight. Just because I like to
do mathematics, fifty of the seventy eight points scored by
that duo comes out to around sixty two percent of
the points at which is you know, you need to
account for that in the points spread here and real quick,
if say Bonnie were to move on, it's George Mason.
Tomorrow played George Mason a couple of times, the most
recent and one got beat up pretty good seventy one
to fifty, so certainly there would be a little bit
of our bene agle. The first game is only three
point eight. Like you say that conference in general is
kind of a conglomeration of mid to bad teams, with
the exception of the couple at the top.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Jacob, Jacob says, I wouldn't take Bonnie's minus six.
I actually still think at six that's a very good bet.
As I'm watching the board move, which it always does
during our show, Rob, I would not be surprised if
this gout as high as like Bonnie's minus seven and
a half or seven over the next hour. So I
think you're gonna see some later Bonnie's money here, which
is what we're kind of looking. As I look at
the Odds logic odd screen, I see some of the
Sharper books are going to six and a half. So
I'm fine with Bonnie's minus six, And like I said,
that is what I will put into the parlay. We
just may have to juice it depending on where that
number is. When we get off the show. Real quick promo,
it's conference tournament season, I ended up with four. I
don't think I actually got so sort of jazzed up.
During the intro, Rob to complain about Baylor that I
never recapped my night, which was just a two and
two night lost with Baylor, lost with Syracuse early hit Sienna,
hit Montana at night. So pretty much a break even
there for me. And then you can get my plays
all of Rob's plays three days or the rest of
the season, all the college basketball we play at wager
Talk so www dot wager Talk dot com. We're both
on there, and that great special is up. Garth's here
in the building. We appreciate you donating every every day, Garth,
and hey, doctor, back, losing days happens to literally everyone.
You've been killing it here in the chat. Fifteen and
seven is awesome, even if you have lost two in
a row. That's still awesome. So let's talk about the
game Garth has to talk about, and we're gonna go
back to the Big twelve. And he says, Rob, I'm
gonna try to get right and get back with Cincy
minus two and a half this afternoon. So I believe
this is another early tip that likely goes I gotta
get back to the spot here. I think it like
they're probably right on. Yeah, they're on right after Arizona State,
So that's probably gonna tip off around three pm Eastern.
Cincinnati is a short favor against Central Florida. The resurgence
has been on in Cincinnati over the last maybe month,
five weeks or so. Do you think that? Do you
think the Bearcats rob carry that momentum into the Big
twelve tournament?
Speaker 2: Man, they didn't carry it yesterday. I mean they slept
walking through that game against Utah. Maybe that's a good
sign for today that you can go ahead and play
as miserably as Cincinnati gid, especially to start that game. Well,
I was watching it, I was thinking of Garth's post
here yesterday about the first half total going over, and
in all my brilliance, I suggested I'd rather be Cincinnati
first half team total, thinking that Utah's poor defensively and
they would probably give it up more than thirty six
and a half. And Cincinnati proceeds to go out and
be totally dry on the offensive end first ten minutes
of that game, nine points twenty nine first half first
half total didn't get there. Cincinnati first half team total
did not get there. So, like I say, it could
set up for you know, that was their first game
out in this turning could have been you know, if
your Cincinnati, I shouldn't say look ahead, Wes Miller and
Cincinna shouldn't look ahead of anybody. But Utah was kind
of one of those teams, Adam that you and I.
You know, Kelly brought up the discussion on Saturday morning,
and of course, you know in her context she was
kind of alluding to do you find other teams across
the country like a Kansas State who she followed close
that you're just like, you know what, they've checked out,
And it seemed like Utah was one of those we've
checked out type of teams. But they played hard. Yesterday,
Cincinnati gets by. Now they get to UCF. They played
it twice, doesn't happen often in these conferences, but they
did get two. Media gets UCF. UCF wins at home
by one the first time since he straightens it out
in the more recent matchup about a month ago, win
by twenty and absolutely squashed what's a really good Central
Florida offense. And that's probably the difference in this game
is that Cincinnati is way more capable of that type
of defensiveformance. I think Johnny Dawkins squad has done a
really good job this year, but they are relying on
that offense being there what carries them, and Cincinnati's got
the ability to shut it down. I think we said
yesterday Cincinnati sporadic. So you know, in my world, if
they played a lousy offensive game yesterday and they're the
kind of team that just kind of of seesaws back
and forth, good offensive performance bast some days, you asch
Gisel James and company, you're like, man, these guys are
really good on offense, and then you watch them take
next game and you're like, these guys stink. Maybe a
bounce back effort out of Cincinnati here. I could see
where Garth is going with this. I like the fact,
and especially from a coaching standpoint, if you're West Miller,
you kind of like the fact that you survived yesterday
and you get to come back today. But you have
coaching points because you should have beaten Utah worst and
you didn't wake up and start playing that game from
the get go. I think all that stuff adds up
for Cincinnati here today in a positive way. So I
could agree with where he's looking here. Central Florida is
not an easy team to defeat. They've got some real
quality wins in the Big Twelve under their belt. But
I do think in this instance, one game under their
belt and the defensive edge that they have here probably
gets Cincinnati through.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a fascinating game because you know Cincinnati, I
think they played kind of odd of their minds in February,
especially shooting the basketball. This is this is not a
great like shooting team, three point shooting team. They've been
outside pretty much the top two fifty most of the year,
top two hundred, and still are even with their their
recent sort of good shooting forms. So you know, if
they don't shoot the ball, well, I don't think they're
going to win this game. And then UCF it's you know,
they go out to Utah and sweep Utah and BYU
on a road trip, and then they come back home
rob to teams that you gotta like their chances to
at least get one of these games home games against
Baylor in Oklahoma State and and just looked gassed and
exhausted in both of those games. Gave up eighty seven
to Baylor, turn around, give up one to eleven to
Oklahoma State. Albeit although I do think there was an
extra period in that game, there was an overtime frame,
but still it's a ton of points and then totally
no show your trip on the on the last weekend
to West Virginia. So I kind of look at that
and say, okay, as you see, f gonna like, you know,
have five days to go and regroup, rest and show
up like ready to play here because they just they
haven't looked ready to play since the BYU game. And
that's what makes this so difficult, because, yeah, we gotta
look at Cincinnati yesterday. Thank you for jogging my memory.
I forget that game was so uninteresting to me that
I forgot it even happened, Rob. I had other stuff
going on in that window, and I was like, you know,
so I forgot that that Cincinnati even sort of had
that sleep walk past Utah yesterday. But yeah, it's this
is it's very difficult because are you gonna wave in
the fact like you were saying that Cincinnati has a
game under their belt on this floor, or are you
gonna take that performance yesterday at face value? Because they'll
tell you what, Rob, they play like they did against
Utah today, They're not winning this game. Central Florida will
win this game. So, Man, Garth, I I wish I coul.
I wish I had more confidence here, Mike, I don't
you could make Listen, you could make a pretty good
case for UCF in this one, Robin, I probably, I
think you could convince me either way. To me, I
look at this and there are big time sort of
pros and cons for both of these teams. So I
got nothing there, but Garth, if if that is how
you're gonna roll today with Cincinnati, I'll certainly root for you,
because I don't. I don't think I got anything. I
don't think I will have anything in that game for
my clients. Okay, did you have anything you want to
add to that one before we move on?
Speaker 2: You know, just the example that you used Adam of
going out for the Utah sweep and then coming back
home and looking lethargic. It could have been the altitude
after they flew back home. You have two games in
altitude fly back home. Not really all there as far
as legs go, but it's still no excuse to lose
both of those games. And yeah, it's what makes Cincinnati difficult.
It's what makes Central Florida a little difficul Well, I
think on paper, Central Florida might be my preference as
the better team. I think the situation might stick up
for Cincinnati a little bit. Here. We'll see Cincinnati didn't
win by twenty against this squad most recently, and he
could treat that two ways as well, treated as revenge
angle for UCF or treated as positive mindset for Cincinnati.
We crushed these guys last time. Let's go get them again.
We'll see how it goes. It's a difficult game, but
get your get back, Garth. We've all been there where
we want to just you know what, I want to
get it back with this team. We'll see how that
one goes.
Speaker 1: All right, Listen, it is still championship Wednesday. There are
still three bids that are going to be handed out
in games today. So I want to talk about at
least one of the conference championship games. I go tonight
and Rob I scrolled through the chat, and the most
I've seen from like, at least on my quick scroll here,
it looks like people want to talk about the Big
Sky Championship game, the last game on the or the
Drew Martin Betts degenerate special in that eleven thirty Eastern
time slot. Montana. Hats off to Montana. They have come
into this and you know, they've played as good as
they've played pretty much all year. The last couple of games,
Money Williams has been insane, just you know, doing whatever
he wants, gets to the foul line forty points in
the quarterfinal game, and then last night, Rob he came
out with thirty two. I had to you know, I
had to just double check that because I know he
was getting close to over thirty. Again, he came out
with thirty two points to beat Portland State. Now he
takes on Idaho and Rob. This is another team I
think is going to have a hard time defending Money Williams.
They also foul a ton. So talk to you about Idaho, Montana.
This is your big Sky Conference. I've had Montana back
to back days and cash Bowl tickets. Do I just
continue to ride the Grizzlies here? What do you think?
Speaker 2: I'll tell you? I should have continued to write Idaho,
talked about how Idaho was a gut feeling play first
game in this tournament they win. Should have come back
with them last night. You know, I made a big
deal a couple of weeks ago out maybe two and
a half weeks ago now, when Colton Mitchell was absent
from the team. Their number one point guard they were
playing was Eastern Washington. That night, I bet Eastern Washington
even without Mitchell. Beco Johnson took over as the point guard.
And what you found out in that game and what
I should have just played. I gave too much consideration
to e WU, their hot streak and their maybe mindset
for revenge. So I didn't play Idaho. But you watched
that game again last night, you just see Idaho's got playmakers.
It is Colton Mitchell. Obviously, the big Sky doesn't get
a lot of attention. Think of the kid at Tulane
rowing and now I'm missing the kids last name, Yeah,
think of in that but smaller Colton Mitchell was going
past defenders like they were standing still last night, as
was Beco Johnson when he gets a chance to touch
the ball. When Mitchell's on fire, it just doesn't matter.
They got the Freshman of the year power forward, stretch
forward stretch for They've got a lot of offensive tools.
So what I did was last night and of course
you said you've been up most of the day. I
was up till five am and then tried to get
a few hours to sleep in before we did the show.
But I'm scrolling through the box and like, why how
did I Daho do against Montana this year? And what
you find is that Montana beat him twice virtually by
the same scores. Win by five, win by six. Beco
Johnson did have a really nice game against him. But
the guy who had two bad games against Montana, Colton Mitchell.
It's surprising to me, but Montana found a way to
defend him. I'm on the other side, Money Williams had
one big game, not so big the second game. They
found a way to defend him. But where it all
comes to a head here is Idaho is an offensive
base team. They're not really that good defensively at them.
They can be had on the defensive side, but they
didn't play really good offensively against Montana this year. Somehow
Montana had answers for them. Idaho shoots four of twenty
three from three first time around, second time around, they
averaged less than a point per possession. It wasn't good
for a team that I view as a really really
good offensive team in Big Sky context. I don't know.
My gut feeling is Idaho will show up here tonight
because they just when you have guys in a conference
like this, and I know you pointed out in lower
conference quite a bit, when you have guys and I
think Toosand is a team that you use as an example,
when you have guys that can get to the rim,
get past their defenders, that will those teams generally succeed
in these types of conferences. Idaho has two that you
just can't get in front of. Somehow Montana was able
to get in front of them. Can they do it
a third time? I mean, the game plan has been good,
it hasn't produced huge wins. They've been nail fighters both times.
And I will say this, the fluctuation in these games,
This was in my notes. I forgot to say this,
but let me just get this out there. The fluctuation
in these games has been crazy. The most recent game,
Idaho took a thirteen point lead at the outset halfway
through their winning by thirteen twenty seven point turnaround. In
that game, Montana outscores them by twenty seven and leads
by fourteen towards the end of the game. But in
the first game you had the same thing. Montana's led
by eighteen in the first half, Idaho comes all the
way back, takes the lead, and then gets outscored eight
nothing in the last ninety seconds to lose. So I
don't know, Adam Montana's found a way to win. They've
both flown leads, So I guess that's a great case
for endgame. Wait till somebody gets a lead, and then
just go the other way with these two man, I'm
partial to Idaho here with these playmakers, but I've also
always been partial to money Williams difficult game. I do
think that the totals kind of low here, to tell
you the truth, I'm sitting here talking about all these
guards that can get to the rim and have big
scoring nights. The totals come down and a half to
one forty five and a half. I think that's to
be expected in a conference championship game. It's like automatic money, right,
conference championship game under these teams have played too many
games and too many days, et cetera, et cetera. Idaho
has been met down a little bit. I was surprised
they were a favorite. To tell you the truth, Adam,
and I'll let you get it, because if you like
Montana and you've been on that crusade with Montana, you
have to like the fact that they're getting points here.
I mean, what is Idaho doing? Favorite? But I do
like the over in that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's kind of the uh, that's the I
guess conundrum mom in here. But you know, I've been
on Montana, so I kind of want to continue to
ride Montana. But I do think the I do think
like this number. So it was to one and a half,
two and a half. It is probably where it's supposed
to be, So I made I make Idaho minus one
and a half. That's my number for this. So obviously
at two and a half, I definitely see a little
bit of value in Montana. But I'm just gonna settle
on just for the sake of making a pick in
this game before we go to a different game. Rob.
I like the over as well because I don't want
to gain. I don't want to bet against money Williams
right now, and I know Idaho is prone to fouling.
So you know this dude went in the Northern Colorado game.
He went eighteen for nineteen from the free throw line
because they just didn't have an answer for him, and
as soon as they got into the team foul trouble,
Montana just kept feeding him the ball. They couldn't they
couldn't defend him without fouling. He's he's on the line
for nineteen three throws. Portland State, a much better defensive team,
still had trouble with money Williams. So how does Idaho
defend that? They probably don't. On the flip side, though,
Idaho is probably going to score their points, and they're
a team that can get hot and do it in
a hurry. They can hit threes, you know, they will
take a high volume of three pointers when things are
going good and if they're going in. I kind of
think the over might be the way to go in
this one, maybe even more so than Montana. Who It's like, listen,
you gotta what did I say yesterday? Sometimes you got
to know when to get off the ride. Rob I
was riding for two games winner on Sunday winter on Monday,
my gut tells me to get off the ride and
just just bet the over here. It's probably the better look.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the free throw shooters. On the other side, if
Johnson and Mitchell have the ball, they're just as good
at the free throw. And last thing I'll add here,
Adam and I don't remember the numbers exactly, but an
intangible here that could come into play is the broadcast
team was bringing up the fact that the Idaho Vandals
have played X amount of games I think it was
sixteen games inside Idaho Central Arena, which is where this
tournament has been played, and have had extreme success in
this arena, including a game during the regular season non
conference part I think, and then inside this tournament and
then going back. Idaho is another one of those teams
you talked about Siena not winning for sixteen years. Idaho
I think hasn't won their conference tournament in forever, which
was being brought up a lot, and the venue was
being brought up a lot as pro Idaho could be
a deciding factor here and could actually be a reason
why this line you said you made your number one
and a half could be a reason why it was
padded a little bit to minus three on the opener.
I know each team gets you know, ticket sales and
Montana's going to travel well, but this arena has been
good to Idaho.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a really good point and makes it even
more that I think i'd play the over instead of
the side in that game. All right, let's go to
Brett Kenney. Thank you Brett for the donation, and we'll
absolutely talk about your game. This is this is conference
title game number two of three of them tonight, he says.
Thoughts on the Southland Conference championship. Does the three to
ot affect McNeese. I didn't have a dime on that
game last night, Rob, But boy was I polling for
ut Rio Grand Valley. I've been high just I've liked
them this year, and it really would have been cool
to see them in the title game. You know who
else would have probably loved to see that, Rob, Steven F.
Austin would have loved to see that, because they were
a shot or two away from getting a Rio Grand
Valley team that just played multiple overtimes in the championship game. Instead,
what they get is a true road game because this
conference tournament is being entirely how that mcneese's arenas So
what a difference in opponent right there? Like, because of course,
Steven F. Austin, if they're watching the game last night, Rob,
Once it goes to overtime number one and then overtime
number two, who you know, pretty much a coin flip
as to who can win that game. It ends up
being McNeice. And now you're on the road technically if
you're Steven F. Austin to go to the NCAA tournament.
But man, this conversation has come up both of the
times that these two teams played in the regular season,
and both of the times I remember not being able
to truly make a case for a side. It felt
very much like a coin flip to me in those
games on the number, and I can't say that I
feel much differently here. But Rob, if I remember correctly,
did you nailed the total when we talked about both
of these on the show earlier this year. I know
specifically there was one where we both looked at each
other and was like, how does this game not go under?
And then it stayed under by a mile? So what
do you got Southland Conference Championship game tonight? McNee Steven F. Austin.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Unfortunately for you and I were not getting a
price in that mid one forties range tonight. Otherwise we'd
be saying the same thing, what are we missing here?
Why aren't we just pounding me under? Both games this
year went under the total, and to Stephen at Austin's defense,
they played in this arena once already this year lost
by two points to make me sixty six sixty four.
Second game when Stephen at Austin's wait sixty seven to sixty.
The one thing you can take away from both of
those games is the defense reigned supreme. It was difficult
to score points in either of those games, which you know,
this total being bet down sometimes and even today I
did again come on and just kind of mock the
rush to under in conference championship games. This one's justified
in my mind. I mean betting it down from one
thirty seven and a half to win thirty four and
a half with one team playing triple overtime last night.
Not only did McNeice have to go triple overtime, they
were the late game, and that game didn't end until
really late last night. And you know the difference in
that game last night. Adam Will pointed out Rio Grand
Valley twenty four turnovers. Twenty eight percent of their possessions
wound up in turnovers. Otherwise you go through it statistically,
and they did everything they needed to do to win
mcneice's offense, and real quick on the fatigue factor, the
trio of Duel, Garcia and Johnson, those three guys all
played forty nine, forty eight and forty minutes and have
to come right back into another grinder against Steven F. Austin.
Steven F. Austin was not very good themselves offensively last night.
Corpus Christie almost got them. I mean it could have
been real Grand Valley and Corpus Christy honestly in this
title game, so both of the favorites. They were the
two best teams in the league all year long, both offensively, defensively,
record wise, everything, any categor they were one and two
meet for the third time. There's no secrets. Everybody knows
each other's offense, their playsets, et cetera. I would not,
I'd be you know, this game's perked up here one
and a half, all the way up up now at
full point to two and a half, and I was
looking at a couple of threes. Not sure I agree.
I kind of lean toward the thought in the chat
that the three overtimes would affect McNeice just simply based
on the way this game is going to play. We're
a playout where both teams just dig in and play
really hard defense, which takes a lot of energy and
a lot of effort. I'm not saying McNeice can't pull
through with the home crowd behind them, Certainly they can.
I'd probably lean Steven at Austin. You know, those who
got in it one thirty seven and a half played
under I think he did the right thing. One thirty
four and a half. It's probably still the right thing,
but I'd be a little more leary at this price
to stay under. Give me really slight leads at HM
WHI should be a great game to Steven at Boston
plus the points and another potential under the first two
if I just add him up real quick here one
twenty seven in one thirty. Those both are underneath what
they're asking for tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was just trying to go back and look
at some box scores again from those first couple of
meetings that the thing that I'll be the most interested
in from a matchup standpoint is key on Thompson, because
that's the thing in both of those games, Because of
course they split the regular season meetings. Steven at Boston
I believe won at McNeice won the first one, Steven
at Boston won the second one. But even in the
losing effort, rob they were still very very good against
Keon Thompson. They completely shut him down in the first meeting,
you know, the second meeting, at a quick glance, you'll
see that he scored twenty one points, but that was
on like six for seventeen shooting from the field. So
the reason that's so important to this matchup is because
a lot of what Stephen F. Austin is able to
do offensively kind of runs through him. And so you
got to ask yourself if McNeice has had success sort
of taking him out of like the game to an
extent where he's just not totally like destroying you. I
don't know that's I cain't that that would make me
like McNeice certainly then knowing that you're also getting them
on their home floor in a conference final, intriguing game.
Another one that I don't know if I'll have a
bet on, but I think we laid out some points
that would would help you, you know, bet the game
if you want to bet the game, because that's what
we're here to do as well. But Rob Bino, we
also do give bets out on this show. Contrary to
sometimes what people think. We do give bets out in
the hour on the show, and I will throw it
to you. Do you have any idea where you want
to go with the parlay for the day.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to stick to I'm kind of waiting
on this the game first round to happen here. I
said a couple of weeks ago, not even maybe less
than ten days ago, that I thought Sam Houston State
had a really good opportunity to win this Conference USA tournament.
Tonight they get matched up with New Mexico State. Only
played once in league play New Mexico and it was
before Christmas. They had a December twenty first. You can't
really put a lot of stock into anything that happened
before Christmas. However, just to run through real quick, New
Mexico State wins that game eighty seven to seventy eight.
Game was played at New Mexico State, so Sam Houston
was on the road in that one. What I see
out of this team offensively right now is as good
as any any offensive personnel inside this league. Obviously, Liberty
can shoot the threes, but Liberty doesn't play with any pace.
They're more efficiency than they are paced. SIMS Houston is
going to play with a lot of pace, and New
Mexico State had to go through the Jacksonville State game
last night in Jacksonville State, as we all know, they're
constantly annually just a grinding type team. New Mexico State
gets thrown in front of a different type of opponent tonight.
Thought this line was a little short, and also thought
the team total here for sam Houston State maybe a
little bit late. I would expect them to get eighty
in this game. You know again, I forget who I
was mentioning earlier. Maybe it was Saint Bonaventure as a
team under Mark Schmith that we constantly think of as
a and perception is everything and for a lot of
betters until you make adjustments. But annually we get Saint
Bonaventure as a hard nosed defensive team. We don't get
that this year New Mexico State. For years, all defense,
no offense. Right, have one seven footer in the middle,
play a ton of defense, score sixty two points win
a game. Not the case the year don't play a
lot of deep fens. I could see Sam Houston State
running this up into the mid eighties. The deciding factor
becomes do you want to play side? Do you want
to play total? And I'm just going to stick with
side here for purposes of the show. Parley at them,
I think New Mexico's or excuse me, sam Houston State
at minus five the four and a half so long gone.
It opened at four. I'm seeing five and a half.
But certainly you can get five out there if you
shop well enough. There's places where that's available. So I'm
gonna take Sam Houston State minus five to what I
think could be a double digit win here against New
Mexico State in this game, like this team, hopefully they
live up to my expectations and get us home tonight.
Speaker 1: In the parlor, yeah, I can't disagree with it. I
don't have much to add there. So what I'm going
to do is go to well leave it at that.
You said, well, we will use Sam Houston State minus
five in the parlay if I have to add some
extra juice, and I will. But like like we always say,
goes without saying, you know, chop around. I mean, there's
usually especially I've noticed when the spreads are in that range, Rob, five,
five and a half, six, six and a half, that's
where the books almost always have like differ a little
bit in my opinion. So it's almost like, if you
shop around on a five and a half somewhere, you'll
find a five. You shop around on a you know,
six and a half somewhere, you'll find a six. So
just keep that in mind. But it'll be five for
the sake of the parlay, all right, Garth, he's in
here with another donation. And this is I mean, this
is actually going to be fascinating sort of discussion. So
we've got Mountain West Tournament.
Speaker 2: Rob.
Speaker 1: We've talked on this show quite a few times about
Air Force games flying over the total despite the fact
that they are one of the worst teams in the
country and they really struggle to put the ball in
the basket. Garth says one that caught his eye is
a first half under Air Force Nevada. And I guess
if you now, this goes one of two ways, because
I felt like Air Force packed it up for the
season a long time ago. Yep, that also could mean
they've packed up wanting to put any effort in on
the defensive end, So what do you what do you
make of that? And then talk to me about the total.
Garth wants to know first half under Air Force Nevada.
Do you do you want your money on that? Under
Rob is what I'm trying to ask.
Speaker 2: Well, Nevada is the team that kind of wrecked that
overstreak from Air Force. Just the other day, I think you,
me and Kelly talked about this game on Saturday, and
I had said, your time, the one thing you worry
about is Steve Alford's offensive philosophy, where you know, Nevada
has been pretty good team this year. They've beaten a
lot of the Uffer retaurant and they're live to win
this whole thing. The other day, that total got steamed up.
I'm talking from full game right now, Garth, bear with me,
but full game total got steamed up simply because the
streak of Air Force overs was becoming so well known
by everybody that were just almost automatically knee jerk reaction
mechanically going to the window with Air Force games over
got bit up to one forty seven and a half.
That total got left at the altar if you came
too late because it ended won forty seven. Early money
got there. But for Nevada in that game, they put
up forty first half points, didn't really take their foot
off the break because it's hard or off the gas.
Excuse me, it's hard to take your foot off the
gas against air Force because the defense is so non
resistant that you can't help but score against them. Whether
you're plotting like Nevada likes to do, or if you're running,
you're gonna score on them. The interesting part at them,
to your point is that air Force is able to
do their part in most of these games. I mean,
I guess it could be a fact where the other
side just you know, it comes so easy that why
bother playing defense against these guys? Why bother killing yourself
when you know you're gonna score six for every three
they score. I'd have a tough time betting under. The
only reason, the one main reason I think I would
like maybe a first half under here. It's in Thomas
and Mack right, it's first first opening game for everybody here.
Nevada likely in fact, without a doubt, has did larger
portion of the crowd, and I think that the start
off and tournament just knowing Steve Alfred's temperament, it's going
to be defensively focused. I mean, he's going to have
his guys ready from the outset, and if air Force
is going to have a tough shooting half, I'm going
to absolutely pin the burden of your total Playguarth on
air Forces inability first half to score. I think Nevada
defense would be the reason if that be wins, it'll
be the defense just shutting air Force down. And that
would come from the head coach. That would come from
you know, the kind of ra ra mentality that goes
with the opening tip of a conference tournament that you
believe you have a chance to win. So I'm not
going to disagree with it, but air Force overs have
been a real thing this year and it's just hard
for me to bid into that, and I you've isolated it.
Maybe we get a win there for the reasons I described.
So you know, like I said, I won't talk you
off for that at all.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the more I look at this game, the more
I think the under in any capacity makes sense. So
you know, Rob, I'm looking at ken Palm right now
just to find a tempo rating, and air Force is
up now two forty eighth in tempo. Now that's actually
significant because air Force the last few years has been way,
way near the bottom. And I think, to your point,
and I forget who else made someone else made that point.
I can't remember who, but it was basically like, okay,
air Force, you know, they're still coming up as a
team that when you look at the analytics sites, it
looks like they play slow, but they just kind of
started like just they tried to go faster because they
couldn't score anyway. Joe Scott, his thing was always, hey,
let's let's have as few possessions as possible, because the
fewer the possessions, the better the chance we have to win.
Of course Joe Scott takes his leave, air Force starts
playing faster. That doesn't work either. So I would not
be at all surprised to see air Force show up
and say, okay, our only chance today is to make
this game as few possessions as possible and for Nevada
to be like sure, because that's the type of game
we'd rather play anyway. Right, Nevada is bordering on being
top three, you know, outside the top three hundred in
tempo this year, so they're way down there. I think
I saw them at like two point eighty something, right, So, like,
if you think Nevada can dictate pace in this game,
I could kind of see air Force being inclined to
play the slower game and just revert back to, Hey,
we're a twenty point dog. We're not going to win
a track meet with this team, so let's just go
back to doing what we did for years, where it
was like, let's make this as few possessions as possible
and hope Nevada has an inefficient day in the half
court and then maybe we sniff having a chance in
this game, which, of course, last year for air Force
would have worked because they had Ethan Taylor who could
hit any shot at any time. This year, they don't
really have that Rob So, hey, you want to talk
about a full game under this might be a game
where air Force scores forty eight points and loses. Right.
So I'm with you, Garth, But me personally, I think
I prefer the full game more than the first half,
because my gut says that air Force plays the game
Nevada wants to play, and that Nevada being the significant
team but far significant of these two teams is able
to dictate tempo, so I'm kind of with you on
a full game under as well. All right, let's see
we are. We're basically at the end of the show.
I'll give you one more rapid fire. I am off
the d L after my little brief trip to the ER.
I am gonna take a ride down to Bethlehem, PA tonight,
Rob Vino to watch Boston University take on Lee High
in the Patriot League Final. And the reason I you
know we can do this in three minutes here. This
is good luck figuring this game out. This is as
coin flip as it gets for me. These two teams
could not be more evenly matched. I truly have no
clue who's gonna win this game, but I'll tell you.
I'll tell you what it's gonna be. It's gonna be
fun as hell to watch because I think Stabler Arena,
which is where Lehigh plays, sixty two hundred Seed Arena,
which is pretty big for the Patriot League, is just
about sold out. So I don't know. My sister went
to undergrad at BU, so maybe I'll root for them.
Do you have anything in Lehigh BU for the people?
Speaker 2: Quick?
Speaker 1: Before we wrap this thing up.
Speaker 2: It's funny. I've got a good friend who's a Lehigh grad.
I've got a cousin who's a Lehigh grad, so we
got both ends of the alumni covered here. I'll say
this really fast. I think Boston you has slight better personnel.
They've come on. It's the season's going on as they've
got healthier. I think we've documented that a few times here.
But Lehigh's hot stretch has been crazy here, so it's
hard to bet against that when you're betting into a
home floor as well. Not only is make me said home,
but Lee I said home, so tough. I think Boston
used the slightly better team. They're taking a little bit
of money here. Round it out real fast with something
that I think is really interesting here. Adam SMU Louisville.
SMU supposedly got off the bubble yesterday because they won
that game. I don't know if they were to get
blown out by Louisville here today, maybe people change their minds.
But the injury situation here for both sides. No mckel
brown for Louisville, no PJ. Edwards still for SMU. Boopy
Miller came through yesterday. I wanted to play this game
in the worst way because I've had success with it
one time. The other time I didn't. There were split results. Man,
that's such a fun game here. I wish they would
all be healthy for this one. But I wonder if
SMU is not a good look here without Brown on
the floor for Louisville.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of my number is suggesting I should
play Louisville, but I just couldn't get over not having
Brown and the fact that I just think that's another
team that constantly burns me one way or the other
is Louisville. So I'm not even going to really give
an opinion out there other than the fact that my
number shows a little bit of value toward Louisville. All right,
let's just two teamer. Let's keep it simple today, Rob,
we hit a two teamer two days ago. We got
crazy with a three teamer yesterday. It didn't work out.
So Saint Bonaventure minus five and a half is a
client play for me. I'm gonna go minus six in
the parlay, and Sam Houston state I'm gonna go. We'll
go minus five. That's Rob's leg of the parlay, and
I will attach juice to both of those legs, so
you can, so you can, So it comes out roughly
the same. I'll tell you what, if you want to
take you a step further for yourself, a Saint Bonaventure
to Sam Houston moneyline parlay is probably a pretty good
bet as well, because I kind of don't see either
of those two teams losing. So that's the show today.
We greatly appreciate you turning tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow.
We've got another crazy slate of hoops tomorrow and Friday.
Saturday we're on with Kelly in Vegas, and then Sunday,
I believe we have a selection special show with all
of us, So we're gonna be around all weekend just
talking ball, and we really appreciate you guys tuning in
on a daily basis. Again, the parlay Saint Bonaventure minus six,
Sam Houston State minus five. Maybe maybe bet yourself a
little moneyline parlay to go with it, and Rob and
I'll be back in the morning for more. Full Court
Press