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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in everybody. It is time for full

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court Press right here on the Wager Talk YouTube channel,

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and Rob Bino, we have to We always start each

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show with a recap and I'm gonna let you go

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first today because my recap has a segue into our

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first game. But before we get into it, how about

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those Siena College Saints. They're going dancing for the first

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time in sixteen years. I didn't realize as a kid

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and a student how spoiled I was, because, of course,

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when I was a young kid growing up in the

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Albany area in Schenectady, we had Paul Hewitt, had we

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had NCAA tournament teams. With Paul Hewitt. Rob Lanier took

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us to an NCAA tournament as a sixteen seed in

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a year they weren't supposed to go. And then when

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I was in college, my senior year, we go and

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we beat Vanderbilt and then the sub the two years

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after that, a win over Ohio State and another NCAAA

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tournament appearance where we fell short against Purdue, and then

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nothing since then, Rob, it's just been you know, I

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just assumed every couple of years Cianna would go to

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the NCAA tournament, and it has been the longest drought

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for them since becoming a Division one program. But that

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was put to bed last night a phenomenal game plan

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by Jerry McNamara to force Kavert Kennedy to shoot the

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ball and shout out to Gmac and the Saints. I

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know a lot of I have excused Sianna people that

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watch this show, So let's go. I can't I can't

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wait to see where we get seated in that bracket.

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But for for the recap, rob talk to me if

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you if you want to add anything there, go ahead,

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but talk to me about how your night was last night.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, First off, yesterday I commented, I'm not wearing Sienna Green,

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so now that they've won the tied light show up

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in Sienna Green. Big win by them last night against Merramack.

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Good good night. Not great for me though, Adam wrong

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opinions on a couple of games here, Portland's State being

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one of those Montana State. I did notice that inside

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our full court press package, you helped us out by

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playing the other side stronger.

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Speaker 1: So I was gonna say that might be the first

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time we were on opposite sides of a side this year.

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I think that first time that was.

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Speaker 2: A really good showing out of Montana. No question, Portland

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State still could not hit a three in that game,

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and the Gonzaga team total over eighty two and a

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half only make it to the high seventies. Took a

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long while for them to get rolling. I think they

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put up like twenty eight almost thirty points over the

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course of the last ten minutes. But until then, boy,

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Santa Clara, let's give Santa Clara credit. I mean, when

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this tournament started, commented on how much I liked the team.

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I thought the Saint Mary's matchup was bad for them.

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Didn't prove out to be. They figured it out second half,

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and then of course last night played Gonzaga real tough

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to show the committee that they do belong. I'm glad

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they get their seat in there. I'm certainly not glad

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that that I didn't get the eighty three points last night.

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So we look to hit the board a little better today.

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It's not often I have to come on here and

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say I did lousy, but last night it did lousy.

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Speaker 1: Listen, you you have more of it. You're overdue from

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just how well you started the season. It's me that

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can't afford the bad day or two right now because

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I had a bad November in December. I'm I'm I'm

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still in makeup mode from those first two months, whereas

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you kind of padded your bankroll nicely in those first

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two two months of the season. So it's gonna happen.

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And that's going to be my segue into our feature

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game today, Rob, because I gotta be honest. When I

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got off the show, you and I usually chat for

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a minute. I go, you know a lot of times

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with the way that my day works, because I'm prepping

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for this show, cramming to get all the stuff ready,

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I usually, you know, finally eat something for today for

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the day after this show. And so Rob, I get

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off the show, I do our timestamps quick, I go

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eat some lunch. I pull up my odds screen and

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Baylor is a six and a half point favorite, and

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I gave him on the show at three and a half,

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or I gave him to clients at three and a half,

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and I think by the time we got on the

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show it was still four. So I'm feeling pretty good

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about myself in that one, Rob, and Baylor was nowhere

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to be found totally the wrong side. Didn't matter if

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you had three and a half, six and a half,

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ten and a half, whatever, you know, it could have

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been any number that was the wrong side. They just

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did not show up for that game. And credit to

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Arizona State. And this is the segue into our feature game,

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Credit to Arizona State. They had a great game plan,

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they had more energy, and you could pretty much tell

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first ten to fifteen minutes of that game that it

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was going to be a real issue for Baylor to

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come back. And even you know, they made a little

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bit of a run, but ultimately Arizona State got it done.

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Now on a quick turnaround, Robino, it's Iowa State, and

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even as I've criticized i was this year in the

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context of the top ten teams in the league, this

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is a much tougher ask in my opinion, for Arizona State.

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So talk to me, Iowa State, Arizona State. It's another

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early Big twelve tournament tip.

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Speaker 2: Yes, certainly was a tough ask. Not too long ago, Adam,

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I mean four days ago they played Iowa State and

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got run out of the building in aimes eighty six

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sixty five. So that led to which I guess it's

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not yet a signed, sealed and delivered deal that Bobby

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Hurley has fired. I mean, I guess it's like ninety

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five percent sure, but I haven't seen. I guess I

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was reading something that said, you know that soon expected

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to be released head coach, and you know came out

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here yes, saying I an only opinion. Like I always say,

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we're not in the locker rooms. I didn't think that

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Bobby Hurley was the type of coach that the kids

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would rise up for. They did rise up yesterday. Baylor

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really didn't have a chance, like you explained, But again,

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now they play a team that I would say somewhat

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underachieved this season. I think you'd probably agreed that we

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thought better things for Iowa State, not that they were

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a bad team, but that we expected them to be

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more omni in the elite conversation than they are currently.

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That sets up for a tournament like this with Iowa

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State a chance to regroup, a chance to re establish,

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a chance to get their minds right for the NCAA tournament.

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So I would expect they come out here fired up. Now.

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The only question, Adam here is the point spread, which

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I'm not willing to lay eleven and a half with

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Iowa State simply based on the fact that, and I've

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said this before, their scoring is inconsistent. And I've played

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maybe two, maybe three team totals that I thought were

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well within their range given the opponent they were playing,

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and Arizona State would fit that bill again today, soft

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defensive type team Iowa States should score and they just

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don't manage to get to their team total leave me

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a couple of buckets short whatever. So offensively it's been

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sporadic for them, which makes it difficult to lay the

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eleven and a half first time in the building here

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for Iowa State first, you know, first tournament games. So

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do they get adjusted to the rims right away? Do

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you never know the answer to that? Some teams come

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out hot as heck, some teams come out ice cold

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and then proceed to get better as the game goes on.

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Their team total in this one is seventy nine and

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a half, right around the range where I've been playing them.

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I'm so tempted, you know, rather than lay eleven and

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a half to just play Iowa State to get to

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eighty today against this defense and against the team that

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maybe see here's here's the question, right, it's what again

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twenty twenty hindsight is great, But did Arizona play Arizona

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State play their game yesterday and leave it all on

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the floor yesterday and come out and get beat, you know,

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eighty six sixty five like they just did four days

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ago by this team. Totally possible. Not willing to lay

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the eleven and a half, but I do think Io

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State should score here, Adam, I don't see a lot

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of problem with them reaching eighty a game. That's total

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team total right now, it's seventy nine and a half,

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so I would probably look that way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I am tempted to play the eleven and a half.

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I do think the number, you know, is pretty close,

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so I made it twelve point one. So I don't

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see a monster number edge there for me. But just

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you know, go back to that game a few days ago,

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and you want to talk about, Okay, what happens if

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Arizona State comes out hot or if they've got the

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maybe the upper hand in the early going because they've

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had a game on this court. Rob Arizona State in

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that game over the weekend, was up four at halftime,

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forty one to thirty seven in the season finale, they

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led that game, and i Was State still covered the

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sixteen and a half at Hilton on the strength of

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a forty nine to twenty four second half, and that's

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where this game sort of is going to be decided.

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In my opinion. The difference between Baylor and Iowa State

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is Baylor is atrocious defensively, just horrible.

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Speaker 2: They've been.

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Speaker 1: It's been a thing that's been going on for years

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now at Baylor, Like because if you remember, not five

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short years ago, Rob, although it seems like a long

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time ago, Baylor wins a national championship with guards that

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defended as good as anyone in the country, and like,

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it's just the teams that Scott Drew has put together

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the last few years have been really bad defensively, and

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this one is no different. And Arizona State had a

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great game plan and they were able to exploit Baylor's

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very weak defense. My problem, the issue I kind of

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see here with Arizona State is I was I was

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to say, it's still really defensively, Like, even with the

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issues they have putting the ball the basket, their defense

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is so good Rob that on defense alone, here I

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could see Iowa State creating a double digit margin. But

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then you might be in the scenario where, Okay, I'm

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sitting there with a minus eleven and a half, which

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looks like it's pretty open and available out there. You know,

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is I was staate gonna go up fifteen seventeen and

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let them back in or is this a scenario where

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they're just gonna like step on their throat, go for

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the jugular and finish a game. Because remember this game,

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Sleepy twelve thirty start a little bit different than final

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game of the year at Hilton Coliseum, Like that's a

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different environment. So I like Iowa State, I still would

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bet them at eleven and a half if you wanted

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to bet this game. But for me, I just did

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not have a big enough like edge in the number

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to want to lay that many points. And that's just

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that simple. If I was picking this game rob well,

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which we are because we do a show where people

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weren't picked, I'm laying the eleven or the eleven and

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a half with the Cyclones.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it sounds like we could be on the same

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side parlay here, because like I say, if I'm good

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at play, it's gonna be Iowa State team total over

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and thinking they get to eighty. I just you know,

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you said something front part of your analysis where I

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thought back in watching that game Saturday, you jogged my memory.

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There was an insane, an insane second half run in

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that game by Iowa State where all of a sudden,

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I looked up. You know, I've got three monitors on

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at once, and this one didn't have volume, and they're

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losing the game, and I kind of looked up like

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that at the screen and all of a sudden saw

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Iowa State up by double digits, and I'm like, what

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the heck happened there? What happened there for anybody who

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didn't watch, was the opening ten minutes of the second

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half went twenty four to four. Iowa State twenty four

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to four. Defense came in lockdown, offense went crazy, and

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Arizona State is so susceptible to giving up huge point

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totals that you know, I kind of feel this way,

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I'll say it again that I always stink needs to

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re establish themselves as a credible. Remember you and I

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were talking about you had a conversation with somebody who's

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you were talking about Iris State maybe being fraudulent for

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the national.

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Speaker 1: Title right where for where they're ranked.

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Speaker 2: Right right, And they need to correct that because that's

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the perception now and it wasn't the way we talked

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about them prior to January one. Even after January one,

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we're still talking about them as an E lead eight team.

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So I think they've got the talent to do it.

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We'll see how it goes. But if I had to play,

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I'd be playing their team total.

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Speaker 1: Over, Yeah and one. I'll make one final point before

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we move on to a different game. Iowa State force

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twenty three turnovers in that game with Arizona State last week.

244
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That is the main reason for the run, right they.

245
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I mean that's how that is how you go on

246
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a twenty four to four run. Most of the time

247
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you're forcing turnovers and open play and getting easy buckets

248
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off of an offensive Misscuba Arizona State eight. My gut

249
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tells me that we see that happen at some point

250
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in this game where Arizona State they don't take great

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care of the basketball. Baylor wasn't gonna expose him in

252
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that regard, but Iowa State certainly ken and yeah, one

253
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of those kill shot knockout punches. Zeno from Iowa State

254
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and suddenly you could be sitting there down fifteen with

255
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the sun devils trying to battle your way into the

256
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back door. So Iowa State or pass for me on

257
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this one. It seems like you like the team total

258
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and were aligned to start the day. So I think

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we're off to a good start here, Rob. And because

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we're off to such a good start, I'm gonna I'm

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gonna go now for the parlay, and I'm gonna give you, guys,

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one of my client plays. Another reason I'm gonna give

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this client play out is it tips up at eleven

264
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thirty am, so some legitimate breakfast basketball. I'm on the

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East coast, so it is lunch. I ate my lunch

266
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at eleven thirty because I've already been up for most

267
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of the day at this point. But yeah, we've got

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a lunchtime tip here Saint Bonaventure. I've worn my zip

269
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up here, Rob. When Saint Francis leaves D one after

270
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this year, we'll be down to two Franciscan universities left

271
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in Division one. Those two Franciscan university universities are Siena

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and Saint Bonaventure, and they play every year for something

273
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called the Franciscan Cup, so Olian's only a couple hours

274
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For me. I like to see the local teams do well,

275
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and this was not a good year for the local

276
00:14:22,320 --> 00:14:25,360
team Saint Bonaventure. If you know, the real local team

277
00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:28,279
Syracuse Is probably had the worst year of anyone, but

278
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Saint Bonaventure. Rob, we like this team. At one point

279
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in November and December they managed to turn around and

280
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go four and fourteen in Atlantic ten play. Of course,

281
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we know that they're going to move on from Mark Schmidt,

282
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but it's a little to me, it's a little bit

283
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of a different scenario because Mark Schmidt two decades at

284
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olan took a Saint Bonaventure team over that I believe

285
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got like the death penalty or had to cancel their

286
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season if I remember correctly, way back in the early

287
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two thousands, I'm pretty sure the Bonnies had to like

288
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cancel the rest of the A season and then Schmid

289
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took over after that. This is one Rob where you said,

290
00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:08,399
Danny Hurley or Bobby Hurley, you don't know if they

291
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were going to show up for Bobby Hurley. You didn't

292
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You weren't really sure how that dynamic was going.

293
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Speaker 2: To take place.

294
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Speaker 1: I think the bond, I think this Saint Bonaventure team

295
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shows up for March for Schmidt because I just think

296
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he's sort of revered in that area for the turnaround

297
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over the last two decades. And you look at LaSalle

298
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rob they're very banged up, Like, how is LaSalle hanging

299
00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,480
this game? I love the Bonnie here and I'm curious

300
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as to what you you sort of see in this one.

301
00:15:36,639 --> 00:15:39,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been an interesting year for Saint bontovitchadav and

302
00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,679
the one thing that really didn't correlate with a Mark

303
00:15:41,720 --> 00:15:46,799
Schmidt coach team was the defensive output on that side

304
00:15:46,799 --> 00:15:49,679
of the floor for Saint Bonnie. For years, you recognize

305
00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,559
them as kind of a I don't know, sixty to

306
00:15:53,600 --> 00:15:57,200
fifty five type team, sixty five to sixty one type team,

307
00:15:57,720 --> 00:16:01,159
hard nos defense making up shots. Here the exact opposite,

308
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,960
right he Their defense was like a SIEV teams going

309
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through them. However, the South hits that qualification as well,

310
00:16:07,879 --> 00:16:11,559
so you got two rather poor defenses. But the difference

311
00:16:12,279 --> 00:16:15,440
in offensive output here between these two is like night

312
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,399
and day. Saint Bonnie the better offensive team. All that said,

313
00:16:19,159 --> 00:16:23,039
it's been a while since these two have played. LaSalle

314
00:16:23,159 --> 00:16:26,120
did win that game seventy eight to seventy four, well

315
00:16:26,200 --> 00:16:30,240
over the total in this one. The problem for LaSalle again,

316
00:16:30,480 --> 00:16:33,120
like you just stated, there's gonna be some injuries here.

317
00:16:34,399 --> 00:16:37,720
I'm one again. I kind of subscribe to the theory

318
00:16:37,759 --> 00:16:41,480
that friend and colleague Ski Profit always brings up to me.

319
00:16:43,399 --> 00:16:46,399
If I can't trust you to get stops, I can't

320
00:16:46,399 --> 00:16:50,559
trust you to cover numbers. And generally speaking, when we

321
00:16:50,639 --> 00:16:54,000
say that, it's in terms of covering larger numbers. This

322
00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:56,720
number is in a range where I don't know if

323
00:16:56,759 --> 00:17:00,440
that applies. I think that Saint Bonnie probably could score

324
00:17:00,519 --> 00:17:05,559
less out in their current condition by this amount. I

325
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:11,519
understand the move downward in the total. But then again,

326
00:17:11,559 --> 00:17:15,279
that's helpful to Saint Bonaventure in their team total. In

327
00:17:15,279 --> 00:17:19,519
other words, they get penalized in this total move somewhat

328
00:17:19,559 --> 00:17:22,799
for the South having a banged up roster here, so

329
00:17:22,839 --> 00:17:25,359
the number comes down their team total, you have to

330
00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:28,799
equate everything. It goes down seventy four and a half.

331
00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:31,559
I see some seventy fives and halves out there now,

332
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so people playing the side up a little bit. I

333
00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:38,119
could see that happening in this game again, you're in

334
00:17:38,279 --> 00:17:42,359
you know, this Pittsburgh Pints Arena, which is not necessarily

335
00:17:42,359 --> 00:17:48,319
an NBA arena, but still I don't think sightlines should

336
00:17:48,359 --> 00:17:54,319
be very manageable here. It's not a stadium type setting,

337
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:57,319
so I don't know. I guess it's slight leaning here

338
00:17:57,400 --> 00:18:00,960
towards the Saint Bonaventcure team total over because of res

339
00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,839
current conditions in the form full season form of the

340
00:18:04,920 --> 00:18:07,880
LaSalle defense, and on top of that, the seventy eight

341
00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:11,480
to seventy four final in their only meeting, albeit a

342
00:18:11,559 --> 00:18:15,160
while back. I think the same type of you know,

343
00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:17,960
mid to upper seventies total could take place for Saint

344
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:18,519
Bonnie here.

345
00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,039
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I want to go back to that regular

346
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season meeting for a second. Rob. These two teams only

347
00:18:24,440 --> 00:18:27,359
played once during the regular season. The game was in Philly.

348
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,119
LaSalle was the home team, and LASAL won that game

349
00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:34,480
seventy eight seventy four. But when you pull up the

350
00:18:34,519 --> 00:18:38,920
box score, Rob, you have Jerome Brewer went for twenty

351
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:43,400
seven and Jaden Marshall went for twenty three, and neither

352
00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:44,960
of those guys will be on the court today for

353
00:18:45,079 --> 00:18:49,200
Lasal because they're both hurt. So you look at you know,

354
00:18:49,440 --> 00:18:52,839
fifty of Lasal's seventy eight points in that win over

355
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,559
Saint Bonaventure came from two guys that will not play

356
00:18:55,559 --> 00:19:01,119
today neutral floor early Like I get you know, I

357
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:03,599
thought the five and a half number was low. It

358
00:19:03,640 --> 00:19:05,279
looks like it's up to six and a half and

359
00:19:05,319 --> 00:19:09,119
six some places. That doesn't surprise me at all. Yeah,

360
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,839
can the eleven thirty am tip be a little bit sleepy?

361
00:19:12,359 --> 00:19:14,599
It can, But we're talking about over the course of

362
00:19:14,640 --> 00:19:17,480
forty minutes. And Rob Blake, you know, the A ten,

363
00:19:17,599 --> 00:19:20,240
the bottom half of the A ten. If you're Saint Bonaventure,

364
00:19:20,279 --> 00:19:21,880
you've got to be looking at the next two days

365
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,319
and saying, you know, we can, we can get to

366
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:27,960
day three. These are not like, you know, these are

367
00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:30,000
not great teams at the bottom of the A ten.

368
00:19:30,799 --> 00:19:33,079
Where so I think you see, you know, just based

369
00:19:33,079 --> 00:19:36,640
on the schedule and how it played out, like Loyola

370
00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,240
Chicago and Saint Bonaventure are down there at four and

371
00:19:39,319 --> 00:19:42,960
fourteen in league play. For me, Saint Bonaventure is just

372
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:46,920
like a much superior team to Loyola Chicago. Yeah, I

373
00:19:46,920 --> 00:19:50,559
think they sort of got priced as bottom options in

374
00:19:50,599 --> 00:19:54,920
their respective games today. Like, but the Bonnies, in my opinion,

375
00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:59,200
deserve more respect than they're getting relative to the other

376
00:19:59,319 --> 00:20:01,720
bottom teams in the league. And then I looked at

377
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,160
the number five and a half and I said, you know,

378
00:20:03,240 --> 00:20:06,880
I don't think that those two guys are priced in

379
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:10,920
the way they should be Brewer and Marshall, especially based

380
00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:12,960
on what they did in the first meeting. So client

381
00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:19,240
played for me, Saint Bonaventure are our Franciscan brother here

382
00:20:19,279 --> 00:20:22,799
in the state of New York to Sienna minus five

383
00:20:22,839 --> 00:20:25,720
and a half eleven thirty am tip, it's up to

384
00:20:25,799 --> 00:20:27,960
six and a half some places. I see six is

385
00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,240
out there. We're gonna put that in the parlay and

386
00:20:30,519 --> 00:20:32,640
well we'll just take you know, we'll probably have to

387
00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:35,319
add juice. But I agree with that move. I think

388
00:20:35,319 --> 00:20:36,359
the Bonnies roll today.

389
00:20:38,039 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, fifty of seventy eight. Just because I like to

390
00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,720
do mathematics, fifty of the seventy eight points scored by

391
00:20:42,759 --> 00:20:45,440
that duo comes out to around sixty two percent of

392
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,680
the points at which is you know, you need to

393
00:20:49,759 --> 00:20:53,640
account for that in the points spread here and real quick,

394
00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,640
if say Bonnie were to move on, it's George Mason.

395
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,720
Tomorrow played George Mason a couple of times, the most

396
00:20:59,720 --> 00:21:02,240
recent and one got beat up pretty good seventy one

397
00:21:02,279 --> 00:21:04,000
to fifty, so certainly there would be a little bit

398
00:21:04,039 --> 00:21:05,880
of our bene agle. The first game is only three

399
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:10,480
point eight. Like you say that conference in general is

400
00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:16,119
kind of a conglomeration of mid to bad teams, with

401
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:17,680
the exception of the couple at the top.

402
00:21:19,319 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, and Jacob, Jacob says, I wouldn't take Bonnie's minus six.

403
00:21:25,039 --> 00:21:27,880
I actually still think at six that's a very good bet.

404
00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:31,519
As I'm watching the board move, which it always does

405
00:21:31,599 --> 00:21:35,079
during our show, Rob, I would not be surprised if

406
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,240
this gout as high as like Bonnie's minus seven and

407
00:21:37,240 --> 00:21:39,680
a half or seven over the next hour. So I

408
00:21:39,720 --> 00:21:42,880
think you're gonna see some later Bonnie's money here, which

409
00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:44,960
is what we're kind of looking. As I look at

410
00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:47,480
the Odds logic odd screen, I see some of the

411
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,759
Sharper books are going to six and a half. So

412
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:53,680
I'm fine with Bonnie's minus six, And like I said,

413
00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:56,440
that is what I will put into the parlay. We

414
00:21:56,839 --> 00:21:59,839
just may have to juice it depending on where that

415
00:22:00,039 --> 00:22:04,880
number is. When we get off the show. Real quick promo,

416
00:22:05,559 --> 00:22:08,279
it's conference tournament season, I ended up with four. I

417
00:22:08,319 --> 00:22:11,359
don't think I actually got so sort of jazzed up.

418
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,559
During the intro, Rob to complain about Baylor that I

419
00:22:14,599 --> 00:22:17,039
never recapped my night, which was just a two and

420
00:22:17,039 --> 00:22:20,960
two night lost with Baylor, lost with Syracuse early hit Sienna,

421
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,680
hit Montana at night. So pretty much a break even

422
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:27,240
there for me. And then you can get my plays

423
00:22:27,319 --> 00:22:30,279
all of Rob's plays three days or the rest of

424
00:22:30,279 --> 00:22:33,880
the season, all the college basketball we play at wager

425
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:37,680
Talk so www dot wager Talk dot com. We're both

426
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:41,519
on there, and that great special is up. Garth's here

427
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:45,640
in the building. We appreciate you donating every every day, Garth,

428
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,519
and hey, doctor, back, losing days happens to literally everyone.

429
00:22:50,079 --> 00:22:53,160
You've been killing it here in the chat. Fifteen and

430
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,920
seven is awesome, even if you have lost two in

431
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:59,400
a row. That's still awesome. So let's talk about the

432
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,680
game Garth has to talk about, and we're gonna go

433
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:06,200
back to the Big twelve. And he says, Rob, I'm

434
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:08,240
gonna try to get right and get back with Cincy

435
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,920
minus two and a half this afternoon. So I believe

436
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:15,440
this is another early tip that likely goes I gotta

437
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,400
get back to the spot here. I think it like

438
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,839
they're probably right on. Yeah, they're on right after Arizona State,

439
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,319
So that's probably gonna tip off around three pm Eastern.

440
00:23:25,599 --> 00:23:29,599
Cincinnati is a short favor against Central Florida. The resurgence

441
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,160
has been on in Cincinnati over the last maybe month,

442
00:23:33,880 --> 00:23:36,640
five weeks or so. Do you think that? Do you

443
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:40,200
think the Bearcats rob carry that momentum into the Big

444
00:23:40,240 --> 00:23:40,920
twelve tournament?

445
00:23:42,400 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 2: Man, they didn't carry it yesterday. I mean they slept

446
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:48,559
walking through that game against Utah. Maybe that's a good

447
00:23:48,599 --> 00:23:52,000
sign for today that you can go ahead and play

448
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:56,599
as miserably as Cincinnati gid, especially to start that game. Well,

449
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,240
I was watching it, I was thinking of Garth's post

450
00:23:59,319 --> 00:24:02,559
here yesterday about the first half total going over, and

451
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:08,480
in all my brilliance, I suggested I'd rather be Cincinnati

452
00:24:08,559 --> 00:24:11,880
first half team total, thinking that Utah's poor defensively and

453
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,119
they would probably give it up more than thirty six

454
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:17,440
and a half. And Cincinnati proceeds to go out and

455
00:24:18,319 --> 00:24:21,240
be totally dry on the offensive end first ten minutes

456
00:24:21,279 --> 00:24:24,480
of that game, nine points twenty nine first half first

457
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:29,119
half total didn't get there. Cincinnati first half team total

458
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,519
did not get there. So, like I say, it could

459
00:24:31,559 --> 00:24:33,599
set up for you know, that was their first game

460
00:24:33,640 --> 00:24:36,400
out in this turning could have been you know, if

461
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,920
your Cincinnati, I shouldn't say look ahead, Wes Miller and

462
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:42,359
Cincinna shouldn't look ahead of anybody. But Utah was kind

463
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:44,319
of one of those teams, Adam that you and I.

464
00:24:44,759 --> 00:24:48,559
You know, Kelly brought up the discussion on Saturday morning,

465
00:24:48,599 --> 00:24:52,880
and of course, you know in her context she was

466
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:56,759
kind of alluding to do you find other teams across

467
00:24:56,799 --> 00:25:00,400
the country like a Kansas State who she followed close

468
00:25:00,599 --> 00:25:02,440
that you're just like, you know what, they've checked out,

469
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:05,359
And it seemed like Utah was one of those we've

470
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,240
checked out type of teams. But they played hard. Yesterday,

471
00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:11,920
Cincinnati gets by. Now they get to UCF. They played

472
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:15,640
it twice, doesn't happen often in these conferences, but they

473
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,680
did get two. Media gets UCF. UCF wins at home

474
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,720
by one the first time since he straightens it out

475
00:25:21,759 --> 00:25:23,920
in the more recent matchup about a month ago, win

476
00:25:24,039 --> 00:25:29,559
by twenty and absolutely squashed what's a really good Central

477
00:25:29,559 --> 00:25:33,599
Florida offense. And that's probably the difference in this game

478
00:25:33,759 --> 00:25:37,920
is that Cincinnati is way more capable of that type

479
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,599
of defensiveformance. I think Johnny Dawkins squad has done a

480
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,559
really good job this year, but they are relying on

481
00:25:43,599 --> 00:25:48,119
that offense being there what carries them, and Cincinnati's got

482
00:25:48,119 --> 00:25:49,680
the ability to shut it down. I think we said

483
00:25:49,759 --> 00:25:54,680
yesterday Cincinnati sporadic. So you know, in my world, if

484
00:25:54,680 --> 00:25:58,279
they played a lousy offensive game yesterday and they're the

485
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:01,920
kind of team that just kind of of seesaws back

486
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,480
and forth, good offensive performance bast some days, you asch

487
00:26:04,519 --> 00:26:06,680
Gisel James and company, you're like, man, these guys are

488
00:26:06,720 --> 00:26:09,000
really good on offense, and then you watch them take

489
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:12,319
next game and you're like, these guys stink. Maybe a

490
00:26:12,319 --> 00:26:14,720
bounce back effort out of Cincinnati here. I could see

491
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:18,759
where Garth is going with this. I like the fact,

492
00:26:19,279 --> 00:26:22,519
and especially from a coaching standpoint, if you're West Miller,

493
00:26:22,640 --> 00:26:25,400
you kind of like the fact that you survived yesterday

494
00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:28,319
and you get to come back today. But you have

495
00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,480
coaching points because you should have beaten Utah worst and

496
00:26:31,519 --> 00:26:33,920
you didn't wake up and start playing that game from

497
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,559
the get go. I think all that stuff adds up

498
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,880
for Cincinnati here today in a positive way. So I

499
00:26:39,920 --> 00:26:42,440
could agree with where he's looking here. Central Florida is

500
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:45,599
not an easy team to defeat. They've got some real

501
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,319
quality wins in the Big Twelve under their belt. But

502
00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:52,200
I do think in this instance, one game under their

503
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,759
belt and the defensive edge that they have here probably

504
00:26:55,759 --> 00:26:56,839
gets Cincinnati through.

505
00:26:59,079 --> 00:27:04,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a fascinating game because you know Cincinnati, I

506
00:27:04,400 --> 00:27:06,799
think they played kind of odd of their minds in February,

507
00:27:07,519 --> 00:27:09,799
especially shooting the basketball. This is this is not a

508
00:27:09,839 --> 00:27:13,559
great like shooting team, three point shooting team. They've been

509
00:27:13,559 --> 00:27:16,559
outside pretty much the top two fifty most of the year,

510
00:27:16,599 --> 00:27:19,319
top two hundred, and still are even with their their

511
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:22,359
recent sort of good shooting forms. So you know, if

512
00:27:22,359 --> 00:27:24,160
they don't shoot the ball, well, I don't think they're

513
00:27:24,160 --> 00:27:27,640
going to win this game. And then UCF it's you know,

514
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:31,680
they go out to Utah and sweep Utah and BYU

515
00:27:31,839 --> 00:27:34,759
on a road trip, and then they come back home

516
00:27:34,880 --> 00:27:37,599
rob to teams that you gotta like their chances to

517
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:39,799
at least get one of these games home games against

518
00:27:39,839 --> 00:27:44,079
Baylor in Oklahoma State and and just looked gassed and

519
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,960
exhausted in both of those games. Gave up eighty seven

520
00:27:47,039 --> 00:27:49,720
to Baylor, turn around, give up one to eleven to

521
00:27:49,799 --> 00:27:52,640
Oklahoma State. Albeit although I do think there was an

522
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,839
extra period in that game, there was an overtime frame,

523
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:57,559
but still it's a ton of points and then totally

524
00:27:57,599 --> 00:27:59,960
no show your trip on the on the last weekend

525
00:28:00,039 --> 00:28:02,359
to West Virginia. So I kind of look at that

526
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,440
and say, okay, as you see, f gonna like, you know,

527
00:28:06,039 --> 00:28:09,279
have five days to go and regroup, rest and show

528
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,680
up like ready to play here because they just they

529
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,400
haven't looked ready to play since the BYU game. And

530
00:28:17,119 --> 00:28:19,839
that's what makes this so difficult, because, yeah, we gotta

531
00:28:19,839 --> 00:28:22,480
look at Cincinnati yesterday. Thank you for jogging my memory.

532
00:28:22,519 --> 00:28:26,359
I forget that game was so uninteresting to me that

533
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,720
I forgot it even happened, Rob. I had other stuff

534
00:28:29,799 --> 00:28:32,839
going on in that window, and I was like, you know,

535
00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:35,279
so I forgot that that Cincinnati even sort of had

536
00:28:35,279 --> 00:28:39,880
that sleep walk past Utah yesterday. But yeah, it's this

537
00:28:40,039 --> 00:28:42,640
is it's very difficult because are you gonna wave in

538
00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:44,960
the fact like you were saying that Cincinnati has a

539
00:28:44,960 --> 00:28:47,240
game under their belt on this floor, or are you

540
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,759
gonna take that performance yesterday at face value? Because they'll

541
00:28:49,759 --> 00:28:52,000
tell you what, Rob, they play like they did against

542
00:28:52,079 --> 00:28:55,839
Utah today, They're not winning this game. Central Florida will

543
00:28:55,880 --> 00:29:00,000
win this game. So, Man, Garth, I I wish I coul.

544
00:29:00,359 --> 00:29:03,559
I wish I had more confidence here, Mike, I don't

545
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,279
you could make Listen, you could make a pretty good

546
00:29:06,279 --> 00:29:09,759
case for UCF in this one, Robin, I probably, I

547
00:29:09,759 --> 00:29:12,359
think you could convince me either way. To me, I

548
00:29:12,359 --> 00:29:14,920
look at this and there are big time sort of

549
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:19,319
pros and cons for both of these teams. So I

550
00:29:19,319 --> 00:29:21,119
got nothing there, but Garth, if if that is how

551
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,960
you're gonna roll today with Cincinnati, I'll certainly root for you,

552
00:29:24,000 --> 00:29:26,000
because I don't. I don't think I got anything. I

553
00:29:26,039 --> 00:29:28,599
don't think I will have anything in that game for

554
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:32,119
my clients. Okay, did you have anything you want to

555
00:29:32,119 --> 00:29:33,400
add to that one before we move on?

556
00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:36,400
Speaker 2: You know, just the example that you used Adam of

557
00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:40,440
going out for the Utah sweep and then coming back

558
00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:44,400
home and looking lethargic. It could have been the altitude

559
00:29:44,759 --> 00:29:46,720
after they flew back home. You have two games in

560
00:29:46,759 --> 00:29:51,519
altitude fly back home. Not really all there as far

561
00:29:51,559 --> 00:29:54,880
as legs go, but it's still no excuse to lose

562
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:58,079
both of those games. And yeah, it's what makes Cincinnati difficult.

563
00:29:58,119 --> 00:30:00,319
It's what makes Central Florida a little difficul Well, I

564
00:30:00,319 --> 00:30:03,480
think on paper, Central Florida might be my preference as

565
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:05,720
the better team. I think the situation might stick up

566
00:30:05,759 --> 00:30:08,039
for Cincinnati a little bit. Here. We'll see Cincinnati didn't

567
00:30:08,039 --> 00:30:12,039
win by twenty against this squad most recently, and he

568
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,480
could treat that two ways as well, treated as revenge

569
00:30:14,519 --> 00:30:20,000
angle for UCF or treated as positive mindset for Cincinnati.

570
00:30:20,079 --> 00:30:22,440
We crushed these guys last time. Let's go get them again.

571
00:30:22,559 --> 00:30:24,559
We'll see how it goes. It's a difficult game, but

572
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,799
get your get back, Garth. We've all been there where

573
00:30:29,799 --> 00:30:31,039
we want to just you know what, I want to

574
00:30:31,079 --> 00:30:33,440
get it back with this team. We'll see how that

575
00:30:33,519 --> 00:30:33,960
one goes.

576
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:39,279
Speaker 1: All right, Listen, it is still championship Wednesday. There are

577
00:30:39,319 --> 00:30:41,519
still three bids that are going to be handed out

578
00:30:41,519 --> 00:30:43,440
in games today. So I want to talk about at

579
00:30:43,559 --> 00:30:47,279
least one of the conference championship games. I go tonight

580
00:30:47,720 --> 00:30:52,160
and Rob I scrolled through the chat, and the most

581
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:54,880
I've seen from like, at least on my quick scroll here,

582
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:57,359
it looks like people want to talk about the Big

583
00:30:57,400 --> 00:31:00,680
Sky Championship game, the last game on the or the

584
00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:04,079
Drew Martin Betts degenerate special in that eleven thirty Eastern

585
00:31:04,119 --> 00:31:11,680
time slot. Montana. Hats off to Montana. They have come

586
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,359
into this and you know, they've played as good as

587
00:31:14,359 --> 00:31:17,079
they've played pretty much all year. The last couple of games,

588
00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:21,480
Money Williams has been insane, just you know, doing whatever

589
00:31:21,519 --> 00:31:24,720
he wants, gets to the foul line forty points in

590
00:31:24,759 --> 00:31:28,480
the quarterfinal game, and then last night, Rob he came

591
00:31:28,519 --> 00:31:31,640
out with thirty two. I had to you know, I

592
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:33,160
had to just double check that because I know he

593
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:35,920
was getting close to over thirty. Again, he came out

594
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:39,759
with thirty two points to beat Portland State. Now he

595
00:31:39,799 --> 00:31:43,759
takes on Idaho and Rob. This is another team I

596
00:31:43,799 --> 00:31:46,200
think is going to have a hard time defending Money Williams.

597
00:31:46,559 --> 00:31:51,279
They also foul a ton. So talk to you about Idaho, Montana.

598
00:31:51,319 --> 00:31:54,720
This is your big Sky Conference. I've had Montana back

599
00:31:54,759 --> 00:31:56,880
to back days and cash Bowl tickets. Do I just

600
00:31:57,759 --> 00:31:59,960
continue to ride the Grizzlies here? What do you think?

601
00:32:00,799 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: I'll tell you? I should have continued to write Idaho,

602
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,960
talked about how Idaho was a gut feeling play first

603
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:08,440
game in this tournament they win. Should have come back

604
00:32:08,440 --> 00:32:10,279
with them last night. You know, I made a big

605
00:32:10,319 --> 00:32:13,079
deal a couple of weeks ago out maybe two and

606
00:32:13,119 --> 00:32:16,960
a half weeks ago now, when Colton Mitchell was absent

607
00:32:17,119 --> 00:32:19,519
from the team. Their number one point guard they were

608
00:32:19,519 --> 00:32:23,799
playing was Eastern Washington. That night, I bet Eastern Washington

609
00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:27,640
even without Mitchell. Beco Johnson took over as the point guard.

610
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,759
And what you found out in that game and what

611
00:32:30,839 --> 00:32:34,480
I should have just played. I gave too much consideration

612
00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:41,519
to e WU, their hot streak and their maybe mindset

613
00:32:41,599 --> 00:32:45,000
for revenge. So I didn't play Idaho. But you watched

614
00:32:45,039 --> 00:32:47,920
that game again last night, you just see Idaho's got playmakers.

615
00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:53,039
It is Colton Mitchell. Obviously, the big Sky doesn't get

616
00:32:53,039 --> 00:32:58,519
a lot of attention. Think of the kid at Tulane

617
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:04,519
rowing and now I'm missing the kids last name, Yeah,

618
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,000
think of in that but smaller Colton Mitchell was going

619
00:33:09,039 --> 00:33:12,160
past defenders like they were standing still last night, as

620
00:33:12,359 --> 00:33:14,559
was Beco Johnson when he gets a chance to touch

621
00:33:14,599 --> 00:33:17,359
the ball. When Mitchell's on fire, it just doesn't matter.

622
00:33:17,480 --> 00:33:21,680
They got the Freshman of the year power forward, stretch

623
00:33:21,759 --> 00:33:25,559
forward stretch for They've got a lot of offensive tools.

624
00:33:25,599 --> 00:33:27,400
So what I did was last night and of course

625
00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:28,759
you said you've been up most of the day. I

626
00:33:28,839 --> 00:33:30,640
was up till five am and then tried to get

627
00:33:30,680 --> 00:33:32,599
a few hours to sleep in before we did the show.

628
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,079
But I'm scrolling through the box and like, why how

629
00:33:36,119 --> 00:33:39,240
did I Daho do against Montana this year? And what

630
00:33:39,319 --> 00:33:43,960
you find is that Montana beat him twice virtually by

631
00:33:43,960 --> 00:33:48,039
the same scores. Win by five, win by six. Beco

632
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:50,799
Johnson did have a really nice game against him. But

633
00:33:50,839 --> 00:33:54,039
the guy who had two bad games against Montana, Colton Mitchell.

634
00:33:54,799 --> 00:33:57,680
It's surprising to me, but Montana found a way to

635
00:33:57,759 --> 00:34:01,480
defend him. I'm on the other side, Money Williams had

636
00:34:01,519 --> 00:34:04,640
one big game, not so big the second game. They

637
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:09,199
found a way to defend him. But where it all

638
00:34:09,719 --> 00:34:12,599
comes to a head here is Idaho is an offensive

639
00:34:12,639 --> 00:34:15,599
base team. They're not really that good defensively at them.

640
00:34:15,599 --> 00:34:18,639
They can be had on the defensive side, but they

641
00:34:18,679 --> 00:34:22,480
didn't play really good offensively against Montana this year. Somehow

642
00:34:22,519 --> 00:34:25,639
Montana had answers for them. Idaho shoots four of twenty

643
00:34:25,679 --> 00:34:28,960
three from three first time around, second time around, they

644
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,480
averaged less than a point per possession. It wasn't good

645
00:34:32,079 --> 00:34:34,400
for a team that I view as a really really

646
00:34:34,440 --> 00:34:38,159
good offensive team in Big Sky context. I don't know.

647
00:34:38,519 --> 00:34:41,639
My gut feeling is Idaho will show up here tonight

648
00:34:41,679 --> 00:34:45,440
because they just when you have guys in a conference

649
00:34:45,559 --> 00:34:49,480
like this, and I know you pointed out in lower

650
00:34:49,519 --> 00:34:52,480
conference quite a bit, when you have guys and I

651
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,039
think Toosand is a team that you use as an example,

652
00:34:55,679 --> 00:34:57,719
when you have guys that can get to the rim,

653
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:03,079
get past their defenders, that will those teams generally succeed

654
00:35:03,119 --> 00:35:07,239
in these types of conferences. Idaho has two that you

655
00:35:07,519 --> 00:35:10,920
just can't get in front of. Somehow Montana was able

656
00:35:10,920 --> 00:35:12,719
to get in front of them. Can they do it

657
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,079
a third time? I mean, the game plan has been good,

658
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:19,519
it hasn't produced huge wins. They've been nail fighters both times.

659
00:35:19,920 --> 00:35:23,880
And I will say this, the fluctuation in these games,

660
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,719
This was in my notes. I forgot to say this,

661
00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:29,079
but let me just get this out there. The fluctuation

662
00:35:29,239 --> 00:35:32,280
in these games has been crazy. The most recent game,

663
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,119
Idaho took a thirteen point lead at the outset halfway

664
00:35:37,119 --> 00:35:41,159
through their winning by thirteen twenty seven point turnaround. In

665
00:35:41,159 --> 00:35:44,079
that game, Montana outscores them by twenty seven and leads

666
00:35:44,079 --> 00:35:46,599
by fourteen towards the end of the game. But in

667
00:35:46,639 --> 00:35:49,159
the first game you had the same thing. Montana's led

668
00:35:49,199 --> 00:35:53,039
by eighteen in the first half, Idaho comes all the

669
00:35:53,039 --> 00:35:56,400
way back, takes the lead, and then gets outscored eight

670
00:35:56,480 --> 00:36:00,280
nothing in the last ninety seconds to lose. So I

671
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:04,079
don't know, Adam Montana's found a way to win. They've

672
00:36:04,079 --> 00:36:08,039
both flown leads, So I guess that's a great case

673
00:36:08,079 --> 00:36:10,440
for endgame. Wait till somebody gets a lead, and then

674
00:36:10,559 --> 00:36:13,159
just go the other way with these two man, I'm

675
00:36:13,199 --> 00:36:16,559
partial to Idaho here with these playmakers, but I've also

676
00:36:16,599 --> 00:36:20,480
always been partial to money Williams difficult game. I do

677
00:36:20,559 --> 00:36:23,079
think that the totals kind of low here, to tell

678
00:36:23,079 --> 00:36:25,320
you the truth, I'm sitting here talking about all these

679
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,519
guards that can get to the rim and have big

680
00:36:28,559 --> 00:36:32,480
scoring nights. The totals come down and a half to

681
00:36:32,480 --> 00:36:33,920
one forty five and a half. I think that's to

682
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:37,920
be expected in a conference championship game. It's like automatic money, right,

683
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:41,360
conference championship game under these teams have played too many

684
00:36:41,400 --> 00:36:45,320
games and too many days, et cetera, et cetera. Idaho

685
00:36:45,360 --> 00:36:47,199
has been met down a little bit. I was surprised

686
00:36:47,199 --> 00:36:49,119
they were a favorite. To tell you the truth, Adam,

687
00:36:49,519 --> 00:36:51,159
and I'll let you get it, because if you like

688
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:54,559
Montana and you've been on that crusade with Montana, you

689
00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:56,880
have to like the fact that they're getting points here.

690
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,559
I mean, what is Idaho doing? Favorite? But I do

691
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:00,719
like the over in that game.

692
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's kind of the uh, that's the I

693
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,679
guess conundrum mom in here. But you know, I've been

694
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,079
on Montana, so I kind of want to continue to

695
00:37:11,159 --> 00:37:13,840
ride Montana. But I do think the I do think

696
00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:17,400
like this number. So it was to one and a half,

697
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,320
two and a half. It is probably where it's supposed

698
00:37:20,320 --> 00:37:23,679
to be, So I made I make Idaho minus one

699
00:37:23,679 --> 00:37:26,320
and a half. That's my number for this. So obviously

700
00:37:26,800 --> 00:37:28,880
at two and a half, I definitely see a little

701
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:32,159
bit of value in Montana. But I'm just gonna settle

702
00:37:32,199 --> 00:37:34,039
on just for the sake of making a pick in

703
00:37:34,079 --> 00:37:36,039
this game before we go to a different game. Rob.

704
00:37:36,079 --> 00:37:38,280
I like the over as well because I don't want

705
00:37:38,320 --> 00:37:40,039
to gain. I don't want to bet against money Williams

706
00:37:40,119 --> 00:37:42,880
right now, and I know Idaho is prone to fouling.

707
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:46,800
So you know this dude went in the Northern Colorado game.

708
00:37:46,800 --> 00:37:49,400
He went eighteen for nineteen from the free throw line

709
00:37:49,519 --> 00:37:52,280
because they just didn't have an answer for him, and

710
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,880
as soon as they got into the team foul trouble,

711
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:58,280
Montana just kept feeding him the ball. They couldn't they

712
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:01,360
couldn't defend him without fouling. He's he's on the line

713
00:38:01,360 --> 00:38:05,800
for nineteen three throws. Portland State, a much better defensive team,

714
00:38:06,079 --> 00:38:09,239
still had trouble with money Williams. So how does Idaho

715
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,719
defend that? They probably don't. On the flip side, though,

716
00:38:12,480 --> 00:38:14,920
Idaho is probably going to score their points, and they're

717
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:17,360
a team that can get hot and do it in

718
00:38:17,360 --> 00:38:20,079
a hurry. They can hit threes, you know, they will

719
00:38:20,079 --> 00:38:22,079
take a high volume of three pointers when things are

720
00:38:22,079 --> 00:38:24,840
going good and if they're going in. I kind of

721
00:38:24,840 --> 00:38:26,280
think the over might be the way to go in

722
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:30,840
this one, maybe even more so than Montana. Who It's like, listen,

723
00:38:30,880 --> 00:38:33,519
you gotta what did I say yesterday? Sometimes you got

724
00:38:33,519 --> 00:38:36,320
to know when to get off the ride. Rob I

725
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:39,360
was riding for two games winner on Sunday winter on Monday,

726
00:38:39,599 --> 00:38:41,320
my gut tells me to get off the ride and

727
00:38:41,400 --> 00:38:43,880
just just bet the over here. It's probably the better look.

728
00:38:45,199 --> 00:38:47,119
Speaker 2: Yeah, the free throw shooters. On the other side, if

729
00:38:47,199 --> 00:38:49,800
Johnson and Mitchell have the ball, they're just as good

730
00:38:49,840 --> 00:38:51,719
at the free throw. And last thing I'll add here,

731
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:55,599
Adam and I don't remember the numbers exactly, but an

732
00:38:55,599 --> 00:38:59,519
intangible here that could come into play is the broadcast

733
00:38:59,599 --> 00:39:02,119
team was bringing up the fact that the Idaho Vandals

734
00:39:02,119 --> 00:39:05,320
have played X amount of games I think it was

735
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:09,239
sixteen games inside Idaho Central Arena, which is where this

736
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:13,760
tournament has been played, and have had extreme success in

737
00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:18,000
this arena, including a game during the regular season non

738
00:39:18,039 --> 00:39:21,360
conference part I think, and then inside this tournament and

739
00:39:21,440 --> 00:39:24,360
then going back. Idaho is another one of those teams

740
00:39:24,400 --> 00:39:28,039
you talked about Siena not winning for sixteen years. Idaho

741
00:39:28,119 --> 00:39:32,360
I think hasn't won their conference tournament in forever, which

742
00:39:32,440 --> 00:39:35,639
was being brought up a lot, and the venue was

743
00:39:35,679 --> 00:39:39,679
being brought up a lot as pro Idaho could be

744
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:43,840
a deciding factor here and could actually be a reason

745
00:39:43,880 --> 00:39:45,960
why this line you said you made your number one

746
00:39:46,000 --> 00:39:48,199
and a half could be a reason why it was

747
00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:51,800
padded a little bit to minus three on the opener.

748
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:54,960
I know each team gets you know, ticket sales and

749
00:39:55,039 --> 00:39:57,679
Montana's going to travel well, but this arena has been

750
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:58,320
good to Idaho.

751
00:39:59,679 --> 00:40:02,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a really good point and makes it even

752
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:04,920
more that I think i'd play the over instead of

753
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,000
the side in that game. All right, let's go to

754
00:40:07,039 --> 00:40:10,199
Brett Kenney. Thank you Brett for the donation, and we'll

755
00:40:10,239 --> 00:40:13,159
absolutely talk about your game. This is this is conference

756
00:40:13,519 --> 00:40:17,039
title game number two of three of them tonight, he says.

757
00:40:17,079 --> 00:40:20,119
Thoughts on the Southland Conference championship. Does the three to

758
00:40:20,119 --> 00:40:24,480
ot affect McNeese. I didn't have a dime on that

759
00:40:24,559 --> 00:40:26,960
game last night, Rob, But boy was I polling for

760
00:40:27,159 --> 00:40:30,960
ut Rio Grand Valley. I've been high just I've liked

761
00:40:31,000 --> 00:40:33,119
them this year, and it really would have been cool

762
00:40:33,119 --> 00:40:34,599
to see them in the title game. You know who

763
00:40:34,599 --> 00:40:37,559
else would have probably loved to see that, Rob, Steven F.

764
00:40:37,639 --> 00:40:41,239
Austin would have loved to see that, because they were

765
00:40:41,280 --> 00:40:45,840
a shot or two away from getting a Rio Grand

766
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:50,480
Valley team that just played multiple overtimes in the championship game. Instead,

767
00:40:50,639 --> 00:40:53,159
what they get is a true road game because this

768
00:40:53,559 --> 00:40:56,960
conference tournament is being entirely how that mcneese's arenas So

769
00:40:57,199 --> 00:41:01,440
what a difference in opponent right there? Like, because of course,

770
00:41:01,440 --> 00:41:04,159
Steven F. Austin, if they're watching the game last night, Rob,

771
00:41:04,679 --> 00:41:07,559
Once it goes to overtime number one and then overtime

772
00:41:07,639 --> 00:41:10,360
number two, who you know, pretty much a coin flip

773
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:12,480
as to who can win that game. It ends up

774
00:41:12,519 --> 00:41:16,039
being McNeice. And now you're on the road technically if

775
00:41:16,039 --> 00:41:19,239
you're Steven F. Austin to go to the NCAA tournament.

776
00:41:20,039 --> 00:41:22,159
But man, this conversation has come up both of the

777
00:41:22,199 --> 00:41:24,639
times that these two teams played in the regular season,

778
00:41:25,119 --> 00:41:27,920
and both of the times I remember not being able

779
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:31,559
to truly make a case for a side. It felt

780
00:41:31,679 --> 00:41:34,039
very much like a coin flip to me in those

781
00:41:34,079 --> 00:41:38,679
games on the number, and I can't say that I

782
00:41:38,679 --> 00:41:41,920
feel much differently here. But Rob, if I remember correctly,

783
00:41:41,920 --> 00:41:45,119
did you nailed the total when we talked about both

784
00:41:45,159 --> 00:41:47,480
of these on the show earlier this year. I know

785
00:41:47,679 --> 00:41:51,039
specifically there was one where we both looked at each

786
00:41:51,039 --> 00:41:53,079
other and was like, how does this game not go under?

787
00:41:53,280 --> 00:41:56,280
And then it stayed under by a mile? So what

788
00:41:56,360 --> 00:42:01,119
do you got Southland Conference Championship game tonight? McNee Steven F. Austin.

789
00:42:02,079 --> 00:42:04,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, Unfortunately for you and I were not getting a

790
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:07,960
price in that mid one forties range tonight. Otherwise we'd

791
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:10,000
be saying the same thing, what are we missing here?

792
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:13,039
Why aren't we just pounding me under? Both games this

793
00:42:13,119 --> 00:42:16,719
year went under the total, and to Stephen at Austin's defense,

794
00:42:17,599 --> 00:42:20,679
they played in this arena once already this year lost

795
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:24,119
by two points to make me sixty six sixty four.

796
00:42:24,199 --> 00:42:27,320
Second game when Stephen at Austin's wait sixty seven to sixty.

797
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:29,880
The one thing you can take away from both of

798
00:42:29,920 --> 00:42:33,079
those games is the defense reigned supreme. It was difficult

799
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:36,760
to score points in either of those games, which you know,

800
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,960
this total being bet down sometimes and even today I

801
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:45,119
did again come on and just kind of mock the

802
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:50,239
rush to under in conference championship games. This one's justified

803
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:52,000
in my mind. I mean betting it down from one

804
00:42:52,039 --> 00:42:53,519
thirty seven and a half to win thirty four and

805
00:42:53,559 --> 00:42:56,159
a half with one team playing triple overtime last night.

806
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,199
Not only did McNeice have to go triple overtime, they

807
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:03,039
were the late game, and that game didn't end until

808
00:43:03,119 --> 00:43:08,199
really late last night. And you know the difference in

809
00:43:08,280 --> 00:43:11,519
that game last night. Adam Will pointed out Rio Grand

810
00:43:11,559 --> 00:43:16,400
Valley twenty four turnovers. Twenty eight percent of their possessions

811
00:43:16,440 --> 00:43:20,199
wound up in turnovers. Otherwise you go through it statistically,

812
00:43:20,400 --> 00:43:22,519
and they did everything they needed to do to win

813
00:43:23,679 --> 00:43:27,440
mcneice's offense, and real quick on the fatigue factor, the

814
00:43:27,440 --> 00:43:31,199
trio of Duel, Garcia and Johnson, those three guys all

815
00:43:31,199 --> 00:43:34,360
played forty nine, forty eight and forty minutes and have

816
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:38,599
to come right back into another grinder against Steven F. Austin.

817
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:43,119
Steven F. Austin was not very good themselves offensively last night.

818
00:43:43,159 --> 00:43:46,519
Corpus Christie almost got them. I mean it could have

819
00:43:46,519 --> 00:43:49,480
been real Grand Valley and Corpus Christy honestly in this

820
00:43:49,599 --> 00:43:52,440
title game, so both of the favorites. They were the

821
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:56,400
two best teams in the league all year long, both offensively, defensively,

822
00:43:57,480 --> 00:44:01,119
record wise, everything, any categor they were one and two

823
00:44:01,599 --> 00:44:04,280
meet for the third time. There's no secrets. Everybody knows

824
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:11,079
each other's offense, their playsets, et cetera. I would not,

825
00:44:11,239 --> 00:44:14,280
I'd be you know, this game's perked up here one

826
00:44:14,320 --> 00:44:16,199
and a half, all the way up up now at

827
00:44:16,199 --> 00:44:17,400
full point to two and a half, and I was

828
00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:21,199
looking at a couple of threes. Not sure I agree.

829
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,199
I kind of lean toward the thought in the chat

830
00:44:24,280 --> 00:44:28,480
that the three overtimes would affect McNeice just simply based

831
00:44:29,079 --> 00:44:30,800
on the way this game is going to play. We're

832
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:33,960
a playout where both teams just dig in and play

833
00:44:34,119 --> 00:44:37,239
really hard defense, which takes a lot of energy and

834
00:44:37,320 --> 00:44:40,280
a lot of effort. I'm not saying McNeice can't pull

835
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,559
through with the home crowd behind them, Certainly they can.

836
00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:48,679
I'd probably lean Steven at Austin. You know, those who

837
00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:50,599
got in it one thirty seven and a half played

838
00:44:50,679 --> 00:44:53,559
under I think he did the right thing. One thirty

839
00:44:53,599 --> 00:44:56,000
four and a half. It's probably still the right thing,

840
00:44:56,119 --> 00:44:59,760
but I'd be a little more leary at this price

841
00:45:00,880 --> 00:45:04,519
to stay under. Give me really slight leads at HM

842
00:45:04,519 --> 00:45:06,760
WHI should be a great game to Steven at Boston

843
00:45:07,519 --> 00:45:11,400
plus the points and another potential under the first two

844
00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:13,280
if I just add him up real quick here one

845
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:16,960
twenty seven in one thirty. Those both are underneath what

846
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:18,039
they're asking for tonight.

847
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:21,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was just trying to go back and look

848
00:45:21,840 --> 00:45:23,760
at some box scores again from those first couple of

849
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:26,719
meetings that the thing that I'll be the most interested

850
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:30,760
in from a matchup standpoint is key on Thompson, because

851
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:34,000
that's the thing in both of those games, Because of

852
00:45:34,039 --> 00:45:36,599
course they split the regular season meetings. Steven at Boston

853
00:45:36,639 --> 00:45:39,800
I believe won at McNeice won the first one, Steven

854
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:41,920
at Boston won the second one. But even in the

855
00:45:41,960 --> 00:45:46,039
losing effort, rob they were still very very good against

856
00:45:46,119 --> 00:45:49,960
Keon Thompson. They completely shut him down in the first meeting,

857
00:45:50,360 --> 00:45:52,559
you know, the second meeting, at a quick glance, you'll

858
00:45:52,559 --> 00:45:55,000
see that he scored twenty one points, but that was

859
00:45:55,039 --> 00:45:57,440
on like six for seventeen shooting from the field. So

860
00:45:58,559 --> 00:46:01,320
the reason that's so important to this matchup is because

861
00:46:01,960 --> 00:46:04,679
a lot of what Stephen F. Austin is able to

862
00:46:04,719 --> 00:46:07,920
do offensively kind of runs through him. And so you

863
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,400
got to ask yourself if McNeice has had success sort

864
00:46:11,440 --> 00:46:14,079
of taking him out of like the game to an

865
00:46:14,079 --> 00:46:18,920
extent where he's just not totally like destroying you. I

866
00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:21,239
don't know that's I cain't that that would make me

867
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:24,679
like McNeice certainly then knowing that you're also getting them

868
00:46:25,039 --> 00:46:28,840
on their home floor in a conference final, intriguing game.

869
00:46:29,320 --> 00:46:31,280
Another one that I don't know if I'll have a

870
00:46:31,360 --> 00:46:34,440
bet on, but I think we laid out some points

871
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:37,960
that would would help you, you know, bet the game

872
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,159
if you want to bet the game, because that's what

873
00:46:40,159 --> 00:46:42,559
we're here to do as well. But Rob Bino, we

874
00:46:42,599 --> 00:46:45,199
also do give bets out on this show. Contrary to

875
00:46:45,280 --> 00:46:48,440
sometimes what people think. We do give bets out in

876
00:46:48,440 --> 00:46:51,159
the hour on the show, and I will throw it

877
00:46:51,159 --> 00:46:52,719
to you. Do you have any idea where you want

878
00:46:52,719 --> 00:46:54,719
to go with the parlay for the day.

879
00:46:56,039 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to stick to I'm kind of waiting

880
00:46:59,519 --> 00:47:04,079
on this the game first round to happen here. I

881
00:47:04,119 --> 00:47:06,800
said a couple of weeks ago, not even maybe less

882
00:47:06,800 --> 00:47:10,039
than ten days ago, that I thought Sam Houston State

883
00:47:10,119 --> 00:47:14,119
had a really good opportunity to win this Conference USA tournament.

884
00:47:14,199 --> 00:47:17,239
Tonight they get matched up with New Mexico State. Only

885
00:47:17,280 --> 00:47:20,360
played once in league play New Mexico and it was

886
00:47:21,079 --> 00:47:24,239
before Christmas. They had a December twenty first. You can't

887
00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:26,840
really put a lot of stock into anything that happened

888
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:31,039
before Christmas. However, just to run through real quick, New

889
00:47:31,079 --> 00:47:33,480
Mexico State wins that game eighty seven to seventy eight.

890
00:47:33,519 --> 00:47:37,920
Game was played at New Mexico State, so Sam Houston

891
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:39,800
was on the road in that one. What I see

892
00:47:39,840 --> 00:47:42,639
out of this team offensively right now is as good

893
00:47:42,679 --> 00:47:49,199
as any any offensive personnel inside this league. Obviously, Liberty

894
00:47:49,239 --> 00:47:52,199
can shoot the threes, but Liberty doesn't play with any pace.

895
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:56,400
They're more efficiency than they are paced. SIMS Houston is

896
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:57,599
going to play with a lot of pace, and New

897
00:47:57,639 --> 00:48:02,199
Mexico State had to go through the Jacksonville State game

898
00:48:02,320 --> 00:48:06,760
last night in Jacksonville State, as we all know, they're

899
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:12,079
constantly annually just a grinding type team. New Mexico State

900
00:48:12,119 --> 00:48:14,639
gets thrown in front of a different type of opponent tonight.

901
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:18,880
Thought this line was a little short, and also thought

902
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:24,679
the team total here for sam Houston State maybe a

903
00:48:24,719 --> 00:48:27,239
little bit late. I would expect them to get eighty

904
00:48:27,239 --> 00:48:29,760
in this game. You know again, I forget who I

905
00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:33,079
was mentioning earlier. Maybe it was Saint Bonaventure as a

906
00:48:33,119 --> 00:48:37,360
team under Mark Schmith that we constantly think of as

907
00:48:37,440 --> 00:48:40,719
a and perception is everything and for a lot of

908
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:45,760
betters until you make adjustments. But annually we get Saint

909
00:48:45,800 --> 00:48:48,599
Bonaventure as a hard nosed defensive team. We don't get

910
00:48:48,599 --> 00:48:51,559
that this year New Mexico State. For years, all defense,

911
00:48:51,639 --> 00:48:54,239
no offense. Right, have one seven footer in the middle,

912
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:57,679
play a ton of defense, score sixty two points win

913
00:48:57,719 --> 00:49:00,840
a game. Not the case the year don't play a

914
00:49:00,880 --> 00:49:03,199
lot of deep fens. I could see Sam Houston State

915
00:49:03,320 --> 00:49:06,679
running this up into the mid eighties. The deciding factor

916
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:08,480
becomes do you want to play side? Do you want

917
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:10,199
to play total? And I'm just going to stick with

918
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:13,840
side here for purposes of the show. Parley at them,

919
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:16,320
I think New Mexico's or excuse me, sam Houston State

920
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:20,840
at minus five the four and a half so long gone.

921
00:49:21,480 --> 00:49:24,880
It opened at four. I'm seeing five and a half.

922
00:49:25,039 --> 00:49:27,079
But certainly you can get five out there if you

923
00:49:27,199 --> 00:49:30,920
shop well enough. There's places where that's available. So I'm

924
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:34,119
gonna take Sam Houston State minus five to what I

925
00:49:34,159 --> 00:49:36,920
think could be a double digit win here against New

926
00:49:37,000 --> 00:49:39,639
Mexico State in this game, like this team, hopefully they

927
00:49:40,400 --> 00:49:43,480
live up to my expectations and get us home tonight.

928
00:49:43,519 --> 00:49:47,519
Speaker 1: In the parlor, yeah, I can't disagree with it. I

929
00:49:47,840 --> 00:49:50,119
don't have much to add there. So what I'm going

930
00:49:50,199 --> 00:49:52,760
to do is go to well leave it at that.

931
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,599
You said, well, we will use Sam Houston State minus

932
00:49:55,639 --> 00:49:57,679
five in the parlay if I have to add some

933
00:49:57,760 --> 00:50:00,719
extra juice, and I will. But like like we always say,

934
00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:04,960
goes without saying, you know, chop around. I mean, there's

935
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:09,039
usually especially I've noticed when the spreads are in that range, Rob, five,

936
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:12,199
five and a half, six, six and a half, that's

937
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:15,599
where the books almost always have like differ a little

938
00:50:15,599 --> 00:50:17,840
bit in my opinion. So it's almost like, if you

939
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:19,719
shop around on a five and a half somewhere, you'll

940
00:50:19,719 --> 00:50:22,239
find a five. You shop around on a you know,

941
00:50:22,440 --> 00:50:24,719
six and a half somewhere, you'll find a six. So

942
00:50:25,039 --> 00:50:27,039
just keep that in mind. But it'll be five for

943
00:50:27,119 --> 00:50:30,679
the sake of the parlay, all right, Garth, he's in

944
00:50:30,719 --> 00:50:34,719
here with another donation. And this is I mean, this

945
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,719
is actually going to be fascinating sort of discussion. So

946
00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:39,119
we've got Mountain West Tournament.

947
00:50:39,199 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 2: Rob.

948
00:50:40,519 --> 00:50:43,800
Speaker 1: We've talked on this show quite a few times about

949
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:47,559
Air Force games flying over the total despite the fact

950
00:50:47,840 --> 00:50:49,280
that they are one of the worst teams in the

951
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:52,079
country and they really struggle to put the ball in

952
00:50:52,119 --> 00:50:55,800
the basket. Garth says one that caught his eye is

953
00:50:55,840 --> 00:51:01,039
a first half under Air Force Nevada. And I guess

954
00:51:01,039 --> 00:51:04,079
if you now, this goes one of two ways, because

955
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:06,079
I felt like Air Force packed it up for the

956
00:51:06,119 --> 00:51:09,119
season a long time ago. Yep, that also could mean

957
00:51:09,159 --> 00:51:11,760
they've packed up wanting to put any effort in on

958
00:51:11,800 --> 00:51:14,960
the defensive end, So what do you what do you

959
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,000
make of that? And then talk to me about the total.

960
00:51:17,199 --> 00:51:19,880
Garth wants to know first half under Air Force Nevada.

961
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,400
Do you do you want your money on that? Under

962
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:23,920
Rob is what I'm trying to ask.

963
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:28,079
Speaker 2: Well, Nevada is the team that kind of wrecked that

964
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:32,840
overstreak from Air Force. Just the other day, I think you,

965
00:51:32,960 --> 00:51:36,320
me and Kelly talked about this game on Saturday, and

966
00:51:36,639 --> 00:51:39,119
I had said, your time, the one thing you worry

967
00:51:39,159 --> 00:51:45,639
about is Steve Alford's offensive philosophy, where you know, Nevada

968
00:51:45,679 --> 00:51:47,960
has been pretty good team this year. They've beaten a

969
00:51:48,000 --> 00:51:51,000
lot of the Uffer retaurant and they're live to win

970
00:51:51,079 --> 00:51:56,800
this whole thing. The other day, that total got steamed up.

971
00:51:56,920 --> 00:51:59,840
I'm talking from full game right now, Garth, bear with me,

972
00:52:00,159 --> 00:52:03,159
but full game total got steamed up simply because the

973
00:52:03,199 --> 00:52:06,360
streak of Air Force overs was becoming so well known

974
00:52:07,119 --> 00:52:11,280
by everybody that were just almost automatically knee jerk reaction

975
00:52:11,440 --> 00:52:14,679
mechanically going to the window with Air Force games over

976
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:16,679
got bit up to one forty seven and a half.

977
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:19,760
That total got left at the altar if you came

978
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:22,800
too late because it ended won forty seven. Early money

979
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:25,679
got there. But for Nevada in that game, they put

980
00:52:25,760 --> 00:52:28,960
up forty first half points, didn't really take their foot

981
00:52:29,000 --> 00:52:31,679
off the break because it's hard or off the gas.

982
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:33,840
Excuse me, it's hard to take your foot off the

983
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:37,519
gas against air Force because the defense is so non

984
00:52:37,599 --> 00:52:40,960
resistant that you can't help but score against them. Whether

985
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:46,159
you're plotting like Nevada likes to do, or if you're running,

986
00:52:46,559 --> 00:52:48,880
you're gonna score on them. The interesting part at them,

987
00:52:48,960 --> 00:52:51,119
to your point is that air Force is able to

988
00:52:51,159 --> 00:52:53,840
do their part in most of these games. I mean,

989
00:52:54,280 --> 00:52:56,679
I guess it could be a fact where the other

990
00:52:56,800 --> 00:53:00,079
side just you know, it comes so easy that why

991
00:53:00,079 --> 00:53:03,360
bother playing defense against these guys? Why bother killing yourself

992
00:53:03,679 --> 00:53:06,440
when you know you're gonna score six for every three

993
00:53:06,480 --> 00:53:12,400
they score. I'd have a tough time betting under. The

994
00:53:12,440 --> 00:53:15,400
only reason, the one main reason I think I would

995
00:53:15,519 --> 00:53:19,400
like maybe a first half under here. It's in Thomas

996
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:24,280
and Mack right, it's first first opening game for everybody here.

997
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:29,599
Nevada likely in fact, without a doubt, has did larger

998
00:53:29,639 --> 00:53:32,760
portion of the crowd, and I think that the start

999
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:37,440
off and tournament just knowing Steve Alfred's temperament, it's going

1000
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:41,280
to be defensively focused. I mean, he's going to have

1001
00:53:41,400 --> 00:53:44,760
his guys ready from the outset, and if air Force

1002
00:53:44,840 --> 00:53:46,639
is going to have a tough shooting half, I'm going

1003
00:53:46,679 --> 00:53:53,039
to absolutely pin the burden of your total Playguarth on

1004
00:53:53,239 --> 00:53:56,320
air Forces inability first half to score. I think Nevada

1005
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,599
defense would be the reason if that be wins, it'll

1006
00:53:59,599 --> 00:54:03,280
be the defense just shutting air Force down. And that

1007
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,360
would come from the head coach. That would come from

1008
00:54:06,519 --> 00:54:08,880
you know, the kind of ra ra mentality that goes

1009
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:11,320
with the opening tip of a conference tournament that you

1010
00:54:11,360 --> 00:54:13,440
believe you have a chance to win. So I'm not

1011
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,920
going to disagree with it, but air Force overs have

1012
00:54:17,039 --> 00:54:20,159
been a real thing this year and it's just hard

1013
00:54:20,199 --> 00:54:22,360
for me to bid into that, and I you've isolated it.

1014
00:54:22,440 --> 00:54:24,880
Maybe we get a win there for the reasons I described.

1015
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,000
So you know, like I said, I won't talk you

1016
00:54:27,079 --> 00:54:27,719
off for that at all.

1017
00:54:29,559 --> 00:54:31,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, the more I look at this game, the more

1018
00:54:31,559 --> 00:54:34,320
I think the under in any capacity makes sense. So

1019
00:54:34,679 --> 00:54:37,039
you know, Rob, I'm looking at ken Palm right now

1020
00:54:38,679 --> 00:54:41,360
just to find a tempo rating, and air Force is

1021
00:54:41,440 --> 00:54:46,079
up now two forty eighth in tempo. Now that's actually

1022
00:54:47,000 --> 00:54:50,960
significant because air Force the last few years has been way,

1023
00:54:51,000 --> 00:54:54,159
way near the bottom. And I think, to your point,

1024
00:54:54,199 --> 00:54:56,480
and I forget who else made someone else made that point.

1025
00:54:56,719 --> 00:55:00,679
I can't remember who, but it was basically like, okay,

1026
00:55:00,719 --> 00:55:03,639
air Force, you know, they're still coming up as a

1027
00:55:03,679 --> 00:55:07,159
team that when you look at the analytics sites, it

1028
00:55:07,199 --> 00:55:10,920
looks like they play slow, but they just kind of

1029
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:14,639
started like just they tried to go faster because they

1030
00:55:14,800 --> 00:55:18,280
couldn't score anyway. Joe Scott, his thing was always, hey,

1031
00:55:18,440 --> 00:55:21,639
let's let's have as few possessions as possible, because the

1032
00:55:21,960 --> 00:55:24,840
fewer the possessions, the better the chance we have to win.

1033
00:55:25,119 --> 00:55:29,760
Of course Joe Scott takes his leave, air Force starts

1034
00:55:29,760 --> 00:55:33,320
playing faster. That doesn't work either. So I would not

1035
00:55:33,400 --> 00:55:36,199
be at all surprised to see air Force show up

1036
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:39,519
and say, okay, our only chance today is to make

1037
00:55:39,559 --> 00:55:42,920
this game as few possessions as possible and for Nevada

1038
00:55:42,960 --> 00:55:45,199
to be like sure, because that's the type of game

1039
00:55:45,199 --> 00:55:49,079
we'd rather play anyway. Right, Nevada is bordering on being

1040
00:55:49,159 --> 00:55:52,199
top three, you know, outside the top three hundred in

1041
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:56,480
tempo this year, so they're way down there. I think

1042
00:55:56,519 --> 00:55:59,920
I saw them at like two point eighty something, right, So, like,

1043
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:03,320
if you think Nevada can dictate pace in this game,

1044
00:56:04,119 --> 00:56:07,920
I could kind of see air Force being inclined to

1045
00:56:07,960 --> 00:56:10,320
play the slower game and just revert back to, Hey,

1046
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,079
we're a twenty point dog. We're not going to win

1047
00:56:13,079 --> 00:56:15,639
a track meet with this team, so let's just go

1048
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:18,079
back to doing what we did for years, where it

1049
00:56:18,159 --> 00:56:21,119
was like, let's make this as few possessions as possible

1050
00:56:21,440 --> 00:56:23,719
and hope Nevada has an inefficient day in the half

1051
00:56:23,760 --> 00:56:27,440
court and then maybe we sniff having a chance in

1052
00:56:27,480 --> 00:56:29,719
this game, which, of course, last year for air Force

1053
00:56:29,760 --> 00:56:32,159
would have worked because they had Ethan Taylor who could

1054
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:34,800
hit any shot at any time. This year, they don't

1055
00:56:34,800 --> 00:56:37,039
really have that Rob So, hey, you want to talk

1056
00:56:37,039 --> 00:56:39,360
about a full game under this might be a game

1057
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:42,400
where air Force scores forty eight points and loses. Right.

1058
00:56:43,039 --> 00:56:45,760
So I'm with you, Garth, But me personally, I think

1059
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:47,719
I prefer the full game more than the first half,

1060
00:56:48,119 --> 00:56:53,119
because my gut says that air Force plays the game

1061
00:56:53,199 --> 00:56:56,440
Nevada wants to play, and that Nevada being the significant

1062
00:56:56,440 --> 00:56:59,599
team but far significant of these two teams is able

1063
00:56:59,639 --> 00:57:02,280
to dictate tempo, so I'm kind of with you on

1064
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:08,760
a full game under as well. All right, let's see

1065
00:57:09,159 --> 00:57:11,199
we are. We're basically at the end of the show.

1066
00:57:11,360 --> 00:57:15,599
I'll give you one more rapid fire. I am off

1067
00:57:15,639 --> 00:57:19,599
the d L after my little brief trip to the ER.

1068
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:23,719
I am gonna take a ride down to Bethlehem, PA tonight,

1069
00:57:23,840 --> 00:57:27,719
Rob Vino to watch Boston University take on Lee High

1070
00:57:28,159 --> 00:57:31,920
in the Patriot League Final. And the reason I you

1071
00:57:31,960 --> 00:57:34,760
know we can do this in three minutes here. This

1072
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:38,079
is good luck figuring this game out. This is as

1073
00:57:38,159 --> 00:57:41,320
coin flip as it gets for me. These two teams

1074
00:57:41,360 --> 00:57:44,880
could not be more evenly matched. I truly have no

1075
00:57:45,039 --> 00:57:48,199
clue who's gonna win this game, but I'll tell you.

1076
00:57:48,239 --> 00:57:50,039
I'll tell you what it's gonna be. It's gonna be

1077
00:57:50,079 --> 00:57:53,199
fun as hell to watch because I think Stabler Arena,

1078
00:57:53,559 --> 00:57:56,400
which is where Lehigh plays, sixty two hundred Seed Arena,

1079
00:57:56,400 --> 00:57:59,000
which is pretty big for the Patriot League, is just

1080
00:57:59,039 --> 00:58:02,800
about sold out. So I don't know. My sister went

1081
00:58:02,840 --> 00:58:05,320
to undergrad at BU, so maybe I'll root for them.

1082
00:58:05,599 --> 00:58:07,719
Do you have anything in Lehigh BU for the people?

1083
00:58:07,800 --> 00:58:08,039
Speaker 2: Quick?

1084
00:58:08,039 --> 00:58:09,400
Speaker 1: Before we wrap this thing up.

1085
00:58:09,519 --> 00:58:12,239
Speaker 2: It's funny. I've got a good friend who's a Lehigh grad.

1086
00:58:12,239 --> 00:58:14,679
I've got a cousin who's a Lehigh grad, so we

1087
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:18,360
got both ends of the alumni covered here. I'll say

1088
00:58:18,360 --> 00:58:21,280
this really fast. I think Boston you has slight better personnel.

1089
00:58:21,320 --> 00:58:23,280
They've come on. It's the season's going on as they've

1090
00:58:23,280 --> 00:58:25,840
got healthier. I think we've documented that a few times here.

1091
00:58:26,000 --> 00:58:30,760
But Lehigh's hot stretch has been crazy here, so it's

1092
00:58:30,800 --> 00:58:33,159
hard to bet against that when you're betting into a

1093
00:58:33,199 --> 00:58:36,159
home floor as well. Not only is make me said home,

1094
00:58:36,199 --> 00:58:39,000
but Lee I said home, so tough. I think Boston

1095
00:58:39,079 --> 00:58:40,760
used the slightly better team. They're taking a little bit

1096
00:58:40,800 --> 00:58:44,440
of money here. Round it out real fast with something

1097
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:47,239
that I think is really interesting here. Adam SMU Louisville.

1098
00:58:47,360 --> 00:58:50,159
SMU supposedly got off the bubble yesterday because they won

1099
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:51,960
that game. I don't know if they were to get

1100
00:58:51,960 --> 00:58:55,840
blown out by Louisville here today, maybe people change their minds.

1101
00:58:56,159 --> 00:58:59,320
But the injury situation here for both sides. No mckel

1102
00:58:59,440 --> 00:59:03,920
brown for Louisville, no PJ. Edwards still for SMU. Boopy

1103
00:59:03,960 --> 00:59:06,840
Miller came through yesterday. I wanted to play this game

1104
00:59:06,880 --> 00:59:08,840
in the worst way because I've had success with it

1105
00:59:08,920 --> 00:59:12,840
one time. The other time I didn't. There were split results. Man,

1106
00:59:12,960 --> 00:59:16,760
that's such a fun game here. I wish they would

1107
00:59:16,760 --> 00:59:18,960
all be healthy for this one. But I wonder if

1108
00:59:19,119 --> 00:59:21,960
SMU is not a good look here without Brown on

1109
00:59:22,039 --> 00:59:23,400
the floor for Louisville.

1110
00:59:25,079 --> 00:59:28,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I kind of my number is suggesting I should

1111
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,400
play Louisville, but I just couldn't get over not having

1112
00:59:31,559 --> 00:59:35,119
Brown and the fact that I just think that's another

1113
00:59:35,159 --> 00:59:37,440
team that constantly burns me one way or the other

1114
00:59:37,519 --> 00:59:39,880
is Louisville. So I'm not even going to really give

1115
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:41,960
an opinion out there other than the fact that my

1116
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:46,079
number shows a little bit of value toward Louisville. All right,

1117
00:59:46,119 --> 00:59:48,519
let's just two teamer. Let's keep it simple today, Rob,

1118
00:59:48,559 --> 00:59:51,519
we hit a two teamer two days ago. We got

1119
00:59:51,559 --> 00:59:54,280
crazy with a three teamer yesterday. It didn't work out.

1120
00:59:54,639 --> 00:59:58,599
So Saint Bonaventure minus five and a half is a

1121
00:59:58,599 --> 01:00:01,159
client play for me. I'm gonna go minus six in

1122
01:00:01,199 --> 01:00:05,920
the parlay, and Sam Houston state I'm gonna go. We'll

1123
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:08,880
go minus five. That's Rob's leg of the parlay, and

1124
01:00:08,960 --> 01:00:12,000
I will attach juice to both of those legs, so

1125
01:00:12,079 --> 01:00:14,639
you can, so you can, So it comes out roughly

1126
01:00:14,679 --> 01:00:16,400
the same. I'll tell you what, if you want to

1127
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:19,360
take you a step further for yourself, a Saint Bonaventure

1128
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:22,280
to Sam Houston moneyline parlay is probably a pretty good

1129
01:00:22,320 --> 01:00:24,360
bet as well, because I kind of don't see either

1130
01:00:24,360 --> 01:00:27,280
of those two teams losing. So that's the show today.

1131
01:00:27,440 --> 01:00:31,320
We greatly appreciate you turning tuning in. We'll be back tomorrow.

1132
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:34,400
We've got another crazy slate of hoops tomorrow and Friday.

1133
01:00:34,599 --> 01:00:37,199
Saturday we're on with Kelly in Vegas, and then Sunday,

1134
01:00:37,239 --> 01:00:39,840
I believe we have a selection special show with all

1135
01:00:39,880 --> 01:00:42,639
of us, So we're gonna be around all weekend just

1136
01:00:43,079 --> 01:00:46,199
talking ball, and we really appreciate you guys tuning in

1137
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:49,840
on a daily basis. Again, the parlay Saint Bonaventure minus six,

1138
01:00:50,239 --> 01:00:53,599
Sam Houston State minus five. Maybe maybe bet yourself a

1139
01:00:53,639 --> 01:00:55,920
little moneyline parlay to go with it, and Rob and

1140
01:00:55,920 --> 01:00:57,920
I'll be back in the morning for more. Full Court

1141
01:00:57,920 --> 01:01:02,679
Press