WEBVTT 1 00:00:10.759 --> 00:00:14.000 Hey, everybody, welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics. 2 00:00:14.000 --> 00:00:16.600 It's been it's felt like a few years this past 3 00:00:16.640 --> 00:00:18.280 week with the amount of news that's been going on. 4 00:00:18.679 --> 00:00:23.000 We have Jack Murphy, Andy Milburn, and Jonathan Hackett. Here 5 00:00:23.440 --> 00:00:25.920 a little bit of house cleaning. Check out Jonathan's new 6 00:00:25.920 --> 00:00:30.719 book about Irani and covert operations. It's incredible. The link 7 00:00:30.879 --> 00:00:33.000 is in the description. He was also on the Team 8 00:00:33.000 --> 00:00:36.759 House about a week ago. Maybe less. Check out that 9 00:00:36.759 --> 00:00:40.600 that episode as well. Encyclopedic knowledge of what goes on 10 00:00:40.640 --> 00:00:45.240 in Iran. Of course, our dear leader Jack Murphy's joining 11 00:00:45.280 --> 00:00:51.159 us today. Jack. Ye, I dragoon Jack late late in 12 00:00:51.159 --> 00:00:54.079 the game to come on. I'm surprised, he said, Yes, Yeah. 13 00:00:53.880 --> 00:00:56.320 I just set up my whole audio and video system. 14 00:00:56.359 --> 00:00:58.159 This is a new computer, so I had to like 15 00:00:58.240 --> 00:01:00.159 rush to set it up in the last thirty minutes. 16 00:01:00.960 --> 00:01:01.920 It's working good though. 17 00:01:02.159 --> 00:01:03.119 It's very impressive. 18 00:01:03.600 --> 00:01:08.159 Hey, anything for you guys, man and Andy Milburn shut 19 00:01:08.239 --> 00:01:09.120 some star quality. 20 00:01:09.560 --> 00:01:12.519 Yeah, Andy Milburn looking felt as possible. Who cuts your 21 00:01:12.519 --> 00:01:13.239 hair in do you do? 22 00:01:14.480 --> 00:01:15.239 No? 23 00:01:15.359 --> 00:01:17.040 You have you have a barber that. 24 00:01:17.079 --> 00:01:21.840 Is absolutely the retired marine colonel haircut right there, Like 25 00:01:21.879 --> 00:01:23.879 that guy is exactly what you think he is. 26 00:01:24.319 --> 00:01:26.239 It's actually shorter than I had it when I was 27 00:01:26.280 --> 00:01:27.159 an active duty. 28 00:01:28.680 --> 00:01:30.599 You just need like a cigar stub in the corner 29 00:01:30.599 --> 00:01:31.319 of your mouth. 30 00:01:32.640 --> 00:01:37.480 Just chewing on one. Not even all right, So we've 31 00:01:37.480 --> 00:01:40.400 had mayhem going on in the world over the last week. 32 00:01:40.680 --> 00:01:45.680 We're gonna start off with Israel bombing Cutter, targeting Hamas 33 00:01:45.680 --> 00:01:49.480 political leadership and the negotiation team who was supposedly negotiating 34 00:01:49.519 --> 00:01:53.480 the piece or the ceasefire. It seems there was a 35 00:01:53.480 --> 00:01:57.120 bit of like, uh, you know, the Mussad chief and 36 00:01:57.280 --> 00:02:00.400 IDF chief people were not down for this, and bb 37 00:02:00.480 --> 00:02:04.680 Net and Yahoo went ahead and did it. Tar just 38 00:02:04.760 --> 00:02:08.159 came out today and like strongly condemned Israel and stuff 39 00:02:08.199 --> 00:02:11.159 like that. Where you guys at, what do you guys 40 00:02:11.199 --> 00:02:13.360 track in Who's going to go first? I'm gonna pick 41 00:02:13.400 --> 00:02:15.960 John Hackett to go first. Our guest goes first. 42 00:02:16.680 --> 00:02:18.960 Yeah, I thinks so to me, this represents kind of 43 00:02:19.039 --> 00:02:21.080 what has already been going on, where we see there's 44 00:02:21.120 --> 00:02:23.360 the larger Israeli government and then there's a smaller component 45 00:02:23.400 --> 00:02:25.960 of that government making certain decisions kind of on their 46 00:02:25.960 --> 00:02:28.840 own or at least against the greater interest of the 47 00:02:28.919 --> 00:02:32.879 larger apparatus, and to me it represents a shift in 48 00:02:33.879 --> 00:02:35.560 what Israel has been doing in the Middle East, where 49 00:02:35.680 --> 00:02:37.599 they've been relying on the United States for backing and 50 00:02:37.639 --> 00:02:39.560 things like that. And I think as each little bite 51 00:02:39.599 --> 00:02:41.960 at the apple has been taken, they realize that they 52 00:02:41.960 --> 00:02:45.319 can take bigger bites with very little consequence or no consequence. 53 00:02:47.039 --> 00:02:50.039 There's a big difference between making statements and condemnation and 54 00:02:50.080 --> 00:02:52.919 then doing something. And there's a lot of statements in 55 00:02:52.960 --> 00:02:56.599 condemnation and very little of doing something to prevent future 56 00:02:56.680 --> 00:02:59.520 acts from happening, or to even do something to moderate 57 00:02:59.560 --> 00:03:02.840 current actions, like in Qatar, but not just Qatar, same 58 00:03:02.879 --> 00:03:05.759 things happening in southwest Syria right now in Durra where 59 00:03:05.840 --> 00:03:09.240 Israel sent a ground force into Dura across the nineteen 60 00:03:09.280 --> 00:03:14.120 seventy four ceasefire line. Again taking little bites at the 61 00:03:14.159 --> 00:03:16.639 apple to see how far can we nibble before we 62 00:03:16.639 --> 00:03:17.680 can make a bigger bite. 63 00:03:18.080 --> 00:03:19.840 And this is not a new technique. 64 00:03:19.879 --> 00:03:22.800 We saw this also with the assassination of Hesbala leaders, 65 00:03:22.840 --> 00:03:25.280 then moving up the chain killing Nocerola, seeing what was 66 00:03:25.280 --> 00:03:28.400 the reaction to that, then killing Hania and Iran, seeing 67 00:03:28.400 --> 00:03:31.439 what was the reaction to that. Further back killing Mossen 68 00:03:31.479 --> 00:03:35.439 Fachriza day the nuclear scientists almost ten years ago, seeing 69 00:03:35.479 --> 00:03:37.120 what was the reaction to that, and then killing six 70 00:03:37.159 --> 00:03:39.599 more scientists after that. You know, so this is probably 71 00:03:39.599 --> 00:03:42.039 not an isolated strategic move. 72 00:03:42.080 --> 00:03:43.000 It's probably an. 73 00:03:42.879 --> 00:03:46.000 Early move in a longer term plan for some further 74 00:03:46.080 --> 00:03:48.759 end state that we as observers think like, oh my gosh, 75 00:03:48.800 --> 00:03:52.159 they just hit Katar. That's crazy. That's not what they're 76 00:03:52.159 --> 00:03:54.080 all about. What they're doing is testing to see what 77 00:03:54.120 --> 00:03:57.039 happens in Qatar with what we are trying to achieve, 78 00:03:57.639 --> 00:03:59.960 and of course there's a longer term game plan to that. 79 00:04:00.759 --> 00:04:04.080 Hitting the negotiators is pretty provocative, but there are further 80 00:04:04.479 --> 00:04:06.680 provocative acts that could do, especially where we have our 81 00:04:06.719 --> 00:04:10.759 own Ascent and soccapp forces stationed there. And that's the 82 00:04:10.800 --> 00:04:14.000 only golf country that Trump has recently visited. In fact, 83 00:04:14.039 --> 00:04:15.960 it was the first time a US president ever visited 84 00:04:16.000 --> 00:04:19.000 Katar very recently, and to do that is a huge provocation, 85 00:04:19.079 --> 00:04:21.120 not just to the golf countries but also to the 86 00:04:21.240 --> 00:04:24.639 United States to say this part of the Israeli government 87 00:04:24.680 --> 00:04:27.560 that's making these decisions can do it without even US 88 00:04:27.680 --> 00:04:29.720 support or knowledge. Because as far as I know, the 89 00:04:29.800 --> 00:04:31.680 US was not informed until the bombs are either in 90 00:04:31.720 --> 00:04:33.199 the air or already had struck. 91 00:04:35.639 --> 00:04:36.160 Melbourne. 92 00:04:37.439 --> 00:04:38.560 Yeah, I am I. 93 00:04:40.160 --> 00:04:40.399 John. 94 00:04:40.439 --> 00:04:42.800 By the way, welcome, good to think, good to have 95 00:04:42.920 --> 00:04:47.720 you on. I agree with I agree with John what Sjohn 96 00:04:47.839 --> 00:04:51.319 said with I think one caveat though. So normally when 97 00:04:51.439 --> 00:04:55.399 Israel kind of pushes a limit, tests the waters, there 98 00:04:55.480 --> 00:04:58.879 is something that they consider of great national interest to 99 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:01.519 them at state, right, you know when they were going 100 00:05:01.560 --> 00:05:05.399 after the nuclear scientists, you know, and you can trace 101 00:05:05.439 --> 00:05:11.279 this all back to I mean, they've jeopardized US relations 102 00:05:11.360 --> 00:05:15.480 before in a big way, even back in the time 103 00:05:15.519 --> 00:05:17.759 of the Soviet era. Do you remember when they were 104 00:05:17.759 --> 00:05:21.160 trying to get they were trying to negotiate with the 105 00:05:21.199 --> 00:05:26.639 Soviet government to get to enable Jews to emigrate to Israel. 106 00:05:27.439 --> 00:05:34.000 And part of that deal was allegedly espionage information from 107 00:05:34.000 --> 00:05:37.240 the United States about our sources and methods against the 108 00:05:37.279 --> 00:05:41.680 Soviet Union. And that's what Pollard was apparently involved in. 109 00:05:41.759 --> 00:05:44.399 And so that was a big risk, remember back then, 110 00:05:44.600 --> 00:05:49.120 using an agent against US an ally. But they took 111 00:05:49.160 --> 00:05:50.920 that risk. It was worth it to them, and they 112 00:05:50.920 --> 00:05:53.519 got away with it, right, I mean Pollard went to jail, 113 00:05:53.600 --> 00:05:57.959 but that was it. There were no more repercussions. I 114 00:05:58.000 --> 00:06:03.160 would say that this is different in that it's not clear. Well, 115 00:06:03.240 --> 00:06:06.319 let me put word of this a different way. Furthering 116 00:06:06.439 --> 00:06:09.319 is really national interest by doing this? It's not. There 117 00:06:09.399 --> 00:06:11.319 was There's not a clear line, and I think that's 118 00:06:11.319 --> 00:06:14.079 why Mossad and the IDF were against the strike. There 119 00:06:14.160 --> 00:06:20.319 was a lot of risk involved jeopardizing negotiations in Doha 120 00:06:20.560 --> 00:06:25.480 with her Mass by breaking that that unkind of unspoken 121 00:06:25.560 --> 00:06:28.079 rule that not to strike in Doha and doing that. 122 00:06:28.480 --> 00:06:30.920 It's not clear that they gained anything by it. That 123 00:06:30.959 --> 00:06:35.079 they removed her Ma anyone really effective within her maas 124 00:06:35.160 --> 00:06:37.879 with the strike. And what they have done is they've 125 00:06:38.040 --> 00:06:40.439 thumbed their nose at the United States. I don't think 126 00:06:40.480 --> 00:06:42.639 that's been made clear in the media how much they 127 00:06:42.680 --> 00:06:45.639 did that because either they informed the United States in 128 00:06:45.680 --> 00:06:51.600 which case we enabled or allowed a strike on a 129 00:06:51.800 --> 00:06:55.360 on a Middle Eastern partner who is allowing us, you know, 130 00:06:55.439 --> 00:06:59.360 to keep keep our troops on their territory in a base, 131 00:06:59.680 --> 00:07:02.920 in other words, implicitly providing our protection to that country, 132 00:07:02.920 --> 00:07:05.240 and we've allowed it out to strike. I don't I 133 00:07:05.279 --> 00:07:07.759 agree with you. John I don't think that happened that way. 134 00:07:08.240 --> 00:07:10.519 I think we found out at the last minute, but 135 00:07:10.600 --> 00:07:15.800 we didn't. We haven't objected vaciferously. Again, you know, whether 136 00:07:15.839 --> 00:07:19.639 we whatever you think of Kada, we have a base 137 00:07:19.759 --> 00:07:23.160 there that is important to us national interests. And by 138 00:07:23.160 --> 00:07:25.439 the way, we don't pay anything for that base. We 139 00:07:25.560 --> 00:07:29.360 pay very little for that base. So and yes, those 140 00:07:29.439 --> 00:07:31.279 of us who've been there for an extended time will 141 00:07:31.319 --> 00:07:33.519 tell you it's a shith hole, but it is a 142 00:07:33.600 --> 00:07:39.120 strategically placed shithle. And and so you know, I just feel, 143 00:07:39.240 --> 00:07:40.839 regardless of the way you look at this, whether we 144 00:07:40.879 --> 00:07:43.160 knew about it beforehand, whether we found out the last minute, 145 00:07:43.240 --> 00:07:46.519 didn't object, we've we've lost a massive amount of credibility 146 00:07:46.720 --> 00:07:50.839 again in the Middle East. And you know, of course 147 00:07:50.879 --> 00:07:54.120 that leaves a le vacuum. And Netania thumb his nose 148 00:07:54.160 --> 00:07:58.399 at us. He thumbed his nose at a large segment 149 00:07:58.399 --> 00:08:02.160 of his own government and his own advisors. And why 150 00:08:02.199 --> 00:08:06.560 did he do it? The only possible answer that I 151 00:08:06.600 --> 00:08:10.639 can come up with isn't that this was in pursuit 152 00:08:10.680 --> 00:08:14.399 of Israeli's interests. These were in pursuit of Netanyahu's interest 153 00:08:14.519 --> 00:08:18.199 because he stands to gain by letting the war in Gaza. 154 00:08:18.279 --> 00:08:20.959 Drag On and his own generals are telling him that 155 00:08:21.000 --> 00:08:26.000 continued military operations will gain little, they will damage the economy, 156 00:08:26.319 --> 00:08:28.959 and of course they will continue to have catastrophic effects 157 00:08:28.959 --> 00:08:32.200 on the Palestinian population in Gaza, about whom no one 158 00:08:32.399 --> 00:08:38.480 really seems to care that much. So I think as there, Yeah, sorry, go. 159 00:08:38.440 --> 00:08:41.440 On if I could, Yeah, just to help understand the 160 00:08:41.440 --> 00:08:44.279 geopolitics here, Israel received six billion dollars a year of 161 00:08:44.320 --> 00:08:47.200 security assistance from the US that was granted after the 162 00:08:47.720 --> 00:08:51.799 Agreement on Marsadat back in seventy nine. And there's of 163 00:08:51.840 --> 00:08:54.480 course Jordan and Egypt also receive lesser amounts that are 164 00:08:54.480 --> 00:08:56.960 part of that agreement. But if you look, as you mentioned, 165 00:08:56.960 --> 00:09:01.960 with Katar pays for our presence there, They pay us 166 00:09:02.320 --> 00:09:04.919 to be there, and similar with the Emirates, the Emirates 167 00:09:04.960 --> 00:09:07.639 pays US to do foreg military sales. 168 00:09:07.639 --> 00:09:09.120 There's a form military sales case. 169 00:09:09.000 --> 00:09:12.200 For the US Marine Corps to train the Presidential Guard 170 00:09:12.240 --> 00:09:15.559 and the Emirates, and the emirateis actually pay the US 171 00:09:15.559 --> 00:09:18.919 forces salaries to defact to the Defense Financing Accounting Service, 172 00:09:19.320 --> 00:09:22.360 while those US forces are partnered with those emirateis So 173 00:09:22.399 --> 00:09:24.840 it's just very interesting to see the disparity where these 174 00:09:24.840 --> 00:09:28.320 golf partners are paying their way to work with us, 175 00:09:28.600 --> 00:09:32.360 whereas on the Israel side, we are paying Israel to 176 00:09:32.480 --> 00:09:36.440 not listen to us. Essentially, it's an interesting chasm between 177 00:09:36.440 --> 00:09:38.679 these two because I think many Westerners might think that 178 00:09:39.039 --> 00:09:42.120 we're just supporting all these nations the same way, and 179 00:09:42.159 --> 00:09:44.440 that's not true. Some of the nations are pulling all 180 00:09:44.440 --> 00:09:47.080 of their own weight and they're there making sacrifices like 181 00:09:47.159 --> 00:09:49.879 Qatar and the Emirates or Saudi Arabia to have us there, 182 00:09:50.440 --> 00:09:53.480 sacrificing some of their sovereignty and some of their resources 183 00:09:53.519 --> 00:09:56.039 for us to be there, and the opposite is true 184 00:09:56.039 --> 00:09:56.559 in Israel. 185 00:09:58.399 --> 00:10:01.039 Yeah, that's a great point. I mean, it's just another 186 00:10:01.200 --> 00:10:04.840 sad indication of the bigger picture, the fact. 187 00:10:04.559 --> 00:10:10.000 That we are any criticism of this ral is vboten 188 00:10:10.840 --> 00:10:14.440 are our own ambassador there seems to be subservient to 189 00:10:14.519 --> 00:10:15.559 their foreign policy. 190 00:10:16.200 --> 00:10:18.639 And you know, another point about this strike, It did 191 00:10:18.639 --> 00:10:22.320 the Abraham Accords no good, you know, I mean, yes, 192 00:10:22.440 --> 00:10:27.240 Qatar is not a signatory, but UAE and Saudi Arabia, uh, well, 193 00:10:27.320 --> 00:10:32.000 Saudi Rai potentially, and this is just driven a further 194 00:10:32.039 --> 00:10:36.919 witch and that in in and that that Abraham accords 195 00:10:37.000 --> 00:10:41.080 were we're driven by US foreign policy and we just 196 00:10:41.120 --> 00:10:43.000 seem to have turned our back on all of this. 197 00:10:43.240 --> 00:10:48.279 And yeah, and the reasoning that who said he gave 198 00:10:48.320 --> 00:10:51.120 the reasoning about hitting the Qatar in the Hamas delegation 199 00:10:51.240 --> 00:10:54.320 was because there was a terrorist attack in Israel a 200 00:10:54.360 --> 00:10:56.519 few days before that. I think in the West Bank. 201 00:10:56.559 --> 00:10:58.759 I might be wrong, I could be totally off on it, 202 00:10:58.799 --> 00:11:01.039 but there wasn't like a shooting there that killed I 203 00:11:01.080 --> 00:11:08.120 think six Israeli's Jerusalem, right Jerusalem, there you go, Yeah. 204 00:11:07.000 --> 00:11:12.279 And that's the population there. I've heard more than missile strikes. 205 00:11:13.080 --> 00:11:16.039 But again, I you know, who knows. I doubt that 206 00:11:16.240 --> 00:11:19.279 that was front and center net and yao, who's motivation for? 207 00:11:20.240 --> 00:11:22.960 Because there was no direct correlation between the people he 208 00:11:23.080 --> 00:11:26.399 was going after, certainly not between the people who were killed, 209 00:11:26.440 --> 00:11:28.639 because it still hasn't be verified that they were even 210 00:11:29.399 --> 00:11:33.320 members of a mask alone mass leaders. And notice, normally 211 00:11:34.200 --> 00:11:37.039 the Israelis trumpet this and come out with names and 212 00:11:37.480 --> 00:11:40.440 all this. They've been remarkably silent about it this time, 213 00:11:40.480 --> 00:11:43.120 which suggests maybe that they weren't didn't get the people 214 00:11:43.159 --> 00:11:43.960 that they were after. 215 00:11:45.519 --> 00:11:47.360 Hey, guys, it's Jack. I just want to talk to 216 00:11:47.399 --> 00:11:49.600 you for a moment about how you can support the show. 217 00:11:49.720 --> 00:11:50.320 If you've been. 218 00:11:50.240 --> 00:11:52.720 Watching it, enjoying it, but you'd like to get a 219 00:11:52.759 --> 00:11:55.120 little bit more involved and help us continue to do this, 220 00:11:55.679 --> 00:11:58.759 you can check out our Patreon It is patreon dot 221 00:11:58.759 --> 00:12:02.639 com slash the Team House, and for five dollars a 222 00:12:02.639 --> 00:12:05.440 month you can get access to all of these episodes 223 00:12:05.480 --> 00:12:08.799 of The Team House ad free. The same goes with 224 00:12:08.879 --> 00:12:12.679 our affiliated podcast eyes On with Andy Milburn, Jason Lyons 225 00:12:12.759 --> 00:12:16.000 mcmulroy that one you will also get all of those 226 00:12:16.000 --> 00:12:20.799 episodes add free. 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But they're also for sale 242 00:13:05.639 --> 00:13:09.240 on the merch shop and additionally, they got t shirts 243 00:13:09.320 --> 00:13:14.039 up there, water bottles, a tote bag, coffee mugs, all 244 00:13:14.080 --> 00:13:16.840 that good stuff. So please go and check them out 245 00:13:16.840 --> 00:13:19.600 and support the show. We really appreciate it, guys. 246 00:13:19.679 --> 00:13:20.000 Thank you. 247 00:13:21.919 --> 00:13:25.759 Yeah, Jackie, you say something, go ahead, brother, No, not really. 248 00:13:25.840 --> 00:13:28.879 I mean the only kind of thing that you know, 249 00:13:28.960 --> 00:13:31.600 I'd like to tease out of you guys, if it's possible, 250 00:13:31.879 --> 00:13:35.440 is you know, the question that's unavoidable is how does 251 00:13:35.480 --> 00:13:39.519 this end. You've both kind of mentioned how Israel is 252 00:13:39.519 --> 00:13:43.639 making this strategic gambit, but it seems to be a 253 00:13:44.000 --> 00:13:47.080 incoherent foreign policy and that there are different factions within 254 00:13:47.200 --> 00:13:51.519 Israel that have different motivations and maybe one faction thinks 255 00:13:51.600 --> 00:13:54.000 longer than the other, right, you know, one of them 256 00:13:54.039 --> 00:13:57.240 might be for short term political gain. How do you 257 00:13:57.320 --> 00:13:59.799 see this playing out for Israel over the next ten 258 00:13:59.879 --> 00:14:04.360 or twenty years. This sort of a total breach of 259 00:14:04.440 --> 00:14:06.879 you know what we would have called the Westphalian system, 260 00:14:07.000 --> 00:14:10.639 right that they can cross these international boundaries and strike 261 00:14:10.639 --> 00:14:13.360 whoever they want, wherever they want with and sometimes it 262 00:14:13.399 --> 00:14:16.240 seems without a lot of rhyme or reason. 263 00:14:17.440 --> 00:14:19.480 I'll just say real briefly then Andy, you can be 264 00:14:19.720 --> 00:14:22.919 longer on this, But the West Vhalian sovereignty is just 265 00:14:22.919 --> 00:14:27.000 a social contract. As long as everybody agrees and follows 266 00:14:27.000 --> 00:14:30.399 their agreement, it's great. If certain actors are not following it, 267 00:14:30.639 --> 00:14:33.360 then other groups have to either choose to sanction or 268 00:14:33.360 --> 00:14:34.759 not sanction those bad behaviors. 269 00:14:34.759 --> 00:14:36.200 And right now, the US, that's. 270 00:14:36.080 --> 00:14:38.879 The only superpower that can sanction those behaviors, is not 271 00:14:38.919 --> 00:14:44.000 sanctioning them. And until those conditions changed, there's one trajectory 272 00:14:44.039 --> 00:14:46.600 that this could go down. If those conditions do change, 273 00:14:46.639 --> 00:14:49.519 there's the opportunity for a new trajectory to a different outcome. 274 00:14:49.960 --> 00:14:52.240 And right now I think the Israeli government, or at 275 00:14:52.279 --> 00:14:55.919 least the Netnyagu cabinet, is taking a very opportunistic approach 276 00:14:56.279 --> 00:14:58.440 to this moment, which they did during the first Trump 277 00:14:58.480 --> 00:15:00.399 presidency as well, where they tried to ge as much 278 00:15:00.399 --> 00:15:02.320 as they could out of these four years. It squeezed 279 00:15:02.320 --> 00:15:06.120 the most benefit without a clear probably idea about five 280 00:15:06.120 --> 00:15:08.360 to ten years from now. Rather, they were looking at 281 00:15:08.480 --> 00:15:11.960 the US domestic politics and trying to use US domestic 282 00:15:11.960 --> 00:15:15.200 politics to increase their own outcomes. But I'll hand it 283 00:15:15.200 --> 00:15:17.519 over to you Andy to be more in depth on that. 284 00:15:19.519 --> 00:15:21.240 So no, it can be more in depth. But I 285 00:15:21.240 --> 00:15:25.759 would say that I think by the way we say Westphili, 286 00:15:25.799 --> 00:15:28.840 it's the Treaty of Westphalia from sixteen forty eight that 287 00:15:29.399 --> 00:15:33.200 basically established the concept of the nation state, a sovereign 288 00:15:33.279 --> 00:15:37.960 nation state with inviolable borders, right. And it was at 289 00:15:37.960 --> 00:15:41.279 a time obviously when democracy was not alive and well, 290 00:15:41.320 --> 00:15:45.519 but it was based anyway on regardless of the good 291 00:15:45.639 --> 00:15:48.840 or bad of the It was literally sorry, at the 292 00:15:48.840 --> 00:15:53.440 time they were sovereign states, they were kingdoms. And then 293 00:15:53.720 --> 00:15:57.039 I mean, I would say that that concept is in 294 00:15:57.159 --> 00:15:59.799 atrophy to say the least. I mean, we violated it. 295 00:16:00.559 --> 00:16:04.320 We robustly a couple of times, right, most notably of 296 00:16:04.360 --> 00:16:10.279 course in in Iraq. And we use then the concept 297 00:16:10.360 --> 00:16:14.840 of you know, the right to protect and and the 298 00:16:15.559 --> 00:16:18.720 concept that you have you abdicate your right to sovereignty 299 00:16:18.759 --> 00:16:22.639 if you're doing certain things and preemptive a great Uh, 300 00:16:24.639 --> 00:16:28.679 the preemptive defense, I guess is the term and you 301 00:16:28.720 --> 00:16:31.679 know that that we used at the time, but nevertheless 302 00:16:31.759 --> 00:16:34.320 we we we can the concept then and since then 303 00:16:34.360 --> 00:16:37.519 we've turned our back on it, most recently, I think 304 00:16:37.559 --> 00:16:42.519 with Ukraine and all this, all these these verbal gyrations 305 00:16:42.519 --> 00:16:45.000 to try and show that somehow as Ukraine's fault for 306 00:16:45.039 --> 00:16:49.200 getting invaded in the first place. But back to back 307 00:16:49.240 --> 00:16:53.080 to the discussion about Jack, what you're saying about Israel. 308 00:16:53.080 --> 00:16:55.200 I think it's really I think it's really interesting. Mean, 309 00:16:55.240 --> 00:16:58.639 first of all, we're all aware that since seven October 310 00:16:58.720 --> 00:17:03.120 we've seen a giant moved to the right within Israeli society. 311 00:17:03.159 --> 00:17:08.039 I mean, that's been taking place since the assassination of 312 00:17:08.559 --> 00:17:12.359 Rabine back in when was that nineteen ninety was it 313 00:17:12.480 --> 00:17:13.079 ninety five? 314 00:17:13.240 --> 00:17:13.480 Was it? 315 00:17:14.240 --> 00:17:16.000 I think it's ninety six, right after Oslo two. 316 00:17:16.440 --> 00:17:20.119 Yeah, But since then there's been a study shift and 317 00:17:20.160 --> 00:17:26.599 then it's accelerated, and so you've got now within Israel 318 00:17:28.400 --> 00:17:34.519 actions that previously it would be attacked by the Israeli public, 319 00:17:34.559 --> 00:17:37.319 of a percentage of the Israeli public now being condoned. 320 00:17:38.039 --> 00:17:40.079 And I'm talking about what's happening in Gaza the only 321 00:17:40.119 --> 00:17:43.720 time you hear opposition, and you hear significant opposition of 322 00:17:43.720 --> 00:17:46.759 the government. It's not based on what's happening to the Palestinians. 323 00:17:46.799 --> 00:17:49.799 It's based on what potentially is happening to the hostages. 324 00:17:49.839 --> 00:17:53.400 And that again was largely the basis for the opposition 325 00:17:53.519 --> 00:17:58.400 against the Doha strike. And you have sometimes in the 326 00:17:58.519 --> 00:18:00.880 United States. I think we get in this view because 327 00:18:00.920 --> 00:18:04.880 we see our own government kind of following along in 328 00:18:05.079 --> 00:18:09.839 path of the Israelis just almost obsequiously agreeing to everything 329 00:18:09.880 --> 00:18:13.279 that they do. But elsewhere in the world, Israel is 330 00:18:13.319 --> 00:18:17.359 becoming a pariah, you know, among European governments. And may 331 00:18:17.519 --> 00:18:20.279 that may not matter to Israel, but down the line 332 00:18:20.359 --> 00:18:23.759 when the US administration changes, that may matter a great deal. 333 00:18:23.799 --> 00:18:26.359 I'm not talking purely in financial terms, but you can't. 334 00:18:26.920 --> 00:18:30.000 You can't without consequence make yourself a prior for long 335 00:18:30.039 --> 00:18:32.640 periods of time. And I think there are Israelis so 336 00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:35.920 concerned about that. And I think too, when you're talking 337 00:18:35.960 --> 00:18:40.279 about direct threats to Israel, this feeling that, hey, all 338 00:18:40.319 --> 00:18:43.359 we need to do is flatten Guaza and kill all 339 00:18:43.400 --> 00:18:45.839 the Palestinians we can and the problems will go away. 340 00:18:46.640 --> 00:18:52.440 And likewise, in Lebanon, of course that's that's not going 341 00:18:52.519 --> 00:18:56.680 to happen. I mean, his Bolla is down for the 342 00:18:56.920 --> 00:18:59.759 for the time being. But can you imagine, you know, 343 00:18:59.799 --> 00:19:04.359 we we are familiar with counterinsurgency. The Israelis don't understand counterinsurgency. 344 00:19:04.359 --> 00:19:06.440 I mean, that's the bottom line. And they don't understand 345 00:19:06.759 --> 00:19:11.000 that you generate, you generate recruits for the cause by 346 00:19:11.039 --> 00:19:14.519 doing the things that you were doing that and that 347 00:19:14.599 --> 00:19:16.440 again is just going to build up a pressure of 348 00:19:16.480 --> 00:19:18.960 steam that sooner or later is going to burst again. 349 00:19:20.279 --> 00:19:22.319 You know, you can't clamp down one hundred percent time 350 00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:28.599 on all these territories. Israel's economy is suffering, and that's 351 00:19:28.640 --> 00:19:32.880 another reason why NETNA is indefinite extension of the war 352 00:19:32.960 --> 00:19:37.799 and Gaza is unpopular because it's affecting individual Israelis across 353 00:19:37.839 --> 00:19:46.400 the board. They've mobilized three hundred thousand reserves, which is 354 00:19:46.440 --> 00:19:50.839 a reservists over and over again, which is a huge 355 00:19:50.880 --> 00:19:55.359 percentage of a ten million person population, and the economy 356 00:19:55.640 --> 00:19:59.920 has suffered severely. I mean, I've been Disrael three or 357 00:20:00.000 --> 00:20:03.400 all times since seven October, and the tourist industry is 358 00:20:03.440 --> 00:20:06.440 down the toilet, and you know, unfortunately it's the same 359 00:20:06.480 --> 00:20:10.240 in Jordan. It's the same in neighboring countries. The long 360 00:20:10.319 --> 00:20:15.400 term economic impact of these continued wars is there is 361 00:20:15.440 --> 00:20:15.960 something that. 362 00:20:15.960 --> 00:20:21.240 Israel is also having, like these really interesting and maybe 363 00:20:21.519 --> 00:20:26.519 potentially catastrophic internal demographic issues. We see the stuff going 364 00:20:26.559 --> 00:20:29.119 on with the ultra Orthodox, and recently I think there 365 00:20:29.200 --> 00:20:33.319 was a move to cut welfare to this population. Partly 366 00:20:33.680 --> 00:20:35.680 or at least it's tied into the fact that they 367 00:20:35.680 --> 00:20:39.079 won't serve in the IDF, they won't comply with conscription. 368 00:20:39.759 --> 00:20:42.279 And do you see that as having like some pretty 369 00:20:42.359 --> 00:20:47.559 drastic internal effects on Israel in the coming years. 370 00:20:48.359 --> 00:20:50.640 That's a really good that's a really good point about 371 00:20:50.680 --> 00:20:56.640 the Hasidic Jews. Bottom line is I don't I don't 372 00:20:56.640 --> 00:20:59.559 see that as being such a rift that so the 373 00:21:00.160 --> 00:21:05.279 move to the move to to enforce the fact that 374 00:21:05.319 --> 00:21:07.640 they have to join the military, to conscript them, it's 375 00:21:07.720 --> 00:21:11.319 genuinely very popular in Israel because there's been building tension 376 00:21:11.359 --> 00:21:14.839 and resentment against that community and just a little bit 377 00:21:14.880 --> 00:21:19.799 of a background. They were, you know, in the in 378 00:21:19.839 --> 00:21:24.359 the post war years, at the birth of birth of Israel, 379 00:21:25.599 --> 00:21:29.279 they were the civic Jews were brought in and given 380 00:21:29.359 --> 00:21:35.119 these protections in a purposeful policy to rebuild them as 381 00:21:35.480 --> 00:21:40.000 part of Jewish and Israeli culture after you know, the Holocaust, 382 00:21:40.640 --> 00:21:44.200 and like a lot of preservation programs, though it has 383 00:21:44.279 --> 00:21:47.039 got it's got out of control. Right, It's like the 384 00:21:47.839 --> 00:21:50.480 I mean, you name it. I'm trying to without being 385 00:21:50.480 --> 00:21:54.799 too facetious and thinking of you know, wildlife. They don't 386 00:21:54.799 --> 00:21:57.839 have a predator, you know. But the point is that 387 00:21:57.880 --> 00:22:00.519 they build and build. They don't contribute to the economy, 388 00:22:00.559 --> 00:22:03.880 they don't work. They just you know, they learn about 389 00:22:03.880 --> 00:22:09.119 the Torah and they thought the Jewish religion, which has 390 00:22:09.200 --> 00:22:12.599 always been considered an important aspect of Israeli culture. But 391 00:22:12.839 --> 00:22:16.400 they don't work in you know, they don't work in 392 00:22:16.440 --> 00:22:19.480 it or in companies, and they don't serve in the military. 393 00:22:19.720 --> 00:22:23.160 And that in particular has caused resentment because they tend 394 00:22:23.200 --> 00:22:26.680 to be you know, they tend to be vociferous too 395 00:22:27.119 --> 00:22:31.480 in the support of Zionism, and they tend to you know, 396 00:22:31.559 --> 00:22:34.599 they represent a disproportion number of the settlers on the 397 00:22:34.599 --> 00:22:36.920 West Bank, et cetera, et cetera. So there is a feeling, 398 00:22:37.200 --> 00:22:39.319 at least there was before seven October, and it has 399 00:22:39.359 --> 00:22:43.279 continued within Israeli society that they contribute to a lot 400 00:22:43.319 --> 00:22:45.160 of the problems and a lot of tensions, but they 401 00:22:45.240 --> 00:22:48.119