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Speaker 1: For what it's worth. You know, there's a lot of

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pressure from the administration for them to go bigger. My

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guess would be they would go twenty five basis points.

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There's this, you know, dual tensions between what's happening in

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the jobs market, which is soft and getting more soft,

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which is one thing they monitor.

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Speaker 2: But on the other.

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Speaker 1: Side of the equation, you know, they're also monitoring inflation,

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which has basically been sticky and has not continued to

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decline since they started cutting rates last year when they

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made three rate cuts. And I think they went too

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far last year, which is why we've seen inflation stay

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in these upper two point seven percent two point eight

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percent kind of range where it's been here recently.

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Speaker 3: You were listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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00:00:55,320 --> 00:00:59,799
Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survival

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Edward dot com and get your free newsletter in gift

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Financial Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 2: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Lutz with us today

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is a new guest, Todd Sheets, Todd fellow newsletter writer.

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You find him on YouTube at on Wealth and Progress,

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as well as his site, which is toddsheetswriter dot com. Tod,

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it's great to have you on the show. So hey,

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it's Monday, September fifteenth. The world is anxiously awaiting the

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upcoming Federal reserve interest rate cut and is it too little,

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too late? What's the game here?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, a couple of different perspectives, Carrie. I mean, first

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of all, I'm in the camp that, you know, after

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two hundred years of learning that central planning doesn't work,

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it does not make sense for us to continue to

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have you know, we can either a small body of

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people of twelve people, or more practically, one person deciding

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what the cost of short term borrowing should be for

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a nation of three hundred and forty million people. We

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would be far better off if those short term interest

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rates were set in the marketplace without government interference. But

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that's not the world we're in. So that raises the question,

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you know, what are they going to do? What should

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they be doing? It seems pretty clear that they're going

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to cut at least twenty five basis points for what

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it's worth. My guess would twenty five to fifty is

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kind of the range for what it's worth. You know,

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there's a lot of pressure from the administration for them

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to go bigger. My guess would be they would go

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twenty five basis points. There's this, you know, dual tensions

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between what's happening in the jobs market, which is soft

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and getting more soft, which is one thing they monitor.

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But on the other side of the equation, you know,

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they're also monitoring inflation, which has basically been sticky and

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has not continued to decline since they started cutting rates

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last year when they made three rate cuts, And I

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think they went too far last year, which is why

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we've seen inflation stay in these upper two point seven

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percent two point eight percent kind of range where it's

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been here recently. My personal view on this, you know,

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aside from not having a small group of people setting

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interest rates, is the bigger risks for the economy are

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on the inflationary side of things. If if inflation gets

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back out of the bottle again and the FED is

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running monetary policies that are too weak, that is I

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think the most potentially disrupting thing that could happen to

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the agenda of the administration and to the economic recovery

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that we'd like to see. You know, then they've got

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to push rates back up meaningfully, and you know, we're

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going to look at issues in the marketplace with housing

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prices and all those kinds of things. So i'd i'd

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air on the side of caution at this point in time.

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Like I said, I think they they were too aggressive

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and easing last year before they really got the inflation

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rate back down to where it should be or lower,

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which is two percent or lower.

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Speaker 2: All right. So one of the ways that we kind

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of see the public's reaction is precious metals prices, and

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today we're hitting new highs yet again. You know, silver,

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which is the one that I'm following closer than gold

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right now. It's forty two thirty eight, up twenty nine cents.

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Gold is up twenty two ninety to thirty six sixty

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four according to kit Goo. So the market's kind of

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speaking now, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And you know, I think the biggest fear out

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there has to be when we are running these chronic

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budget deficits of six percent or higher. The fear is

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is that the Fed is going to monetize those deficits

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by holding rates too low and or also buying a

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federal debt, and that that is an inherently inflationary stance

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for the Fed to be in, and that's a very

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highly justified fear. I mean, this has been the problem

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for central banks going back centuries. If we go back

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to the seventeen hundreds, you know this was happening repeatedly

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in Europe. As one country would go to a war

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with another one, they would start to borrow money. The

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central bank, whether it was England or France or Germany

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or whomever, would print money to help monetize those debts.

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The currencies would devalue, and it got to the point

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where lenders were refusing to loan money to these European

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governments because this was a repeating cycle. And that's finally

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what drove Great Britain onto what became known as the

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classical gold standard. Isaac Newton was actually involved in that

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as Master of the Mint in the late seventeen hundreds,

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and the classical gold standard basically lasted throughout all of

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the eighteen hundreds and into the early nineteen hundreds, and

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it helped fuel the greatest economic boom in the history

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of the world, you know, to better than anything before

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then and anything since then. Was this classical gold standard,

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and the US was effectively on it for most of

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that period of time other than during the Civil War,

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and you know, we benefited more than anybody else. So,

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you know, in terms of the fear in the marketplace,

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I think the reason that you've seen longer term rate

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stays stubbornly high, and you're seeing these issues with precious

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metal is because you know, everybody's worried that these chronic

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deficits are going to end up pushing the FED to

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do the same things central banks have done throughout history.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, It's like, no matter what the problem, no matter

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what the perceived ill, the solution to the FED is

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always the same, print money. Right, even when they're raising rates,

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they're still printing money.

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Speaker 4: Right, Yes, I mean in certain periods, Yes, And this

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has been an especially you know, difficult or egregious problem

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for the last twenty to thirty years. They played a

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big role in created the housing bubble, and then in

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the after the bubble, when the Great financial Crisis came,

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they went back to the same playbook throughout the twenty tens,

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which started pushing housing crisis back up. It's pushed stock

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prices to PE multiples that are all time highs.

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Speaker 1: Other than in a bubble. Kind of in a non

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bubble environment, we've seen higher PE multiples the peak of

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a bubble, but other than that, and so it's been

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a very dangerous playbook for a long time here, and

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for a while through the twenty tens, they got away

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with it for a couple of different reasons which have

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now you know changed. One was all the offshoring to

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China and the low wage labor over there and going

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hand in hand with that and the Great Financial Crisis,

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we had very high rates of unemployment that persisted and

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started coming down gradually later in the decade. But all

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those things weighed against inflation, and so, you know, they

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kind of were able to get away with it without

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triggering consumer price inflation. But through this whole period of time,

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that money has to go somewhere, and it was going

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into housing, which is why we have a huge affordability

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crisis right now because housing prices went up so much

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faster than incomes were going up, which was not the

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historical norm in the past. And then we've had this

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run up in stock prices and in these precious metals,

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in that kind of thing. So, yeah, this has been

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a recurring problem throughout history, and an especially big problem

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over the last twenty plus years.

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Speaker 2: Could not agree with you more here, And so what's

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the solution, abolished to FED?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, well, yeah, I think that would be the solution

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is abolish to FED. Get back to a situation where

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we have short term interest rates being set in the

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marketplace like most other prices in the system, you know,

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and that is the place where you have millions and

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millions of daily transactions taking place between borrowers and lenders,

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and all of those transactions are determining where short term

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rates should be, what lenders are willing to lend at

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given their concerns about inflation, what borrowers are willing to

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borrow at based on what makes sense for their business.

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And instead of letting the marketplace discover the right interest

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rate like we ideally do with most other I is

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in the system, we've got this intervention where the FED

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is trying to either pump up or restrain or hold

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the perfect rate. It just makes no sense, I mean,

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and it hasn't worked. If we had gone down this

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path and we had, you know, sixty seventy years of

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you know, great results. That'd be one thing, but we don't.

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We have sixty seventy years of runaway inflation in the

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nineteen seventies, which they finally got under control in the

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late nineteen eighties. You know, they started working on it

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in the early eighties. It finally got things back down

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in line. In the late eighties. Things were relatively good

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for about a ten year period of time there, but

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then they went back to the same playbook, and you know,

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that gave us the housing bubble and then it gave

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us the affordability crisis.

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Speaker 2: So true spoken like a true Austrian economis there.

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Speaker 1: It's yeah. I'm a big fan of those guys.

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Speaker 2: Actually were our friends over at mysis dot org and

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Tom Dealer, Lorenzo good friends of the show here and

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the really stand up people. They're also being suppressed by

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a certain digital platform who will go nameless, but suffice

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it to say, you are watching this or listening to

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this video on that very platform now, so that should

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tell you everything you need to know. Hey, so we're

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not gonna we're not really going to see any of

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this take place until there's an out and out disaster,

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are we Yeah.

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Speaker 4: You know.

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Speaker 1: The sad thing is we've had disasters. I mean, the

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housing bubble was an enormous disaster, and you know, the

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inflation of the nineteen seventies. But unfortunately, it's like this.

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The fed's role as this interventionist in this entity trying

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to manipulate the economy evolved so slowly, and it basically

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evolved out of their failure during the Great Depression. You know,

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the was originally formed, like we were talking about earlier

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in the early nineteen tens, with the purpose of providing

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liquidity to the system to help avoid isolated bank failures

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from turning into panics. And that was their objective and

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then their primary purpose, and we got to the Great

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Depression and they failed to fulfill that mission. This was

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Milton Friedman and Anna Schwarz, Yeah, which showed that the

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fed's failure to do the job it had been created

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for was what turned the Great Depression into probably the

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worst downturn in the history of the country. So, in

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part because of the fed's failure, FDR comes in and

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with the brain Trust, they start experimenting with these massive

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interventions one of which was to do the job that

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intended to do the job that the FED had failed,

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which was deposit insurance. So they said, okay, well we're

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going to put deposit insurance on anything, and that effectively

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I mean to some extent. I mean, the truth of

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the matter is, by all measures, the number of bank

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turns were probably at their nator in early nineteen thirty

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three and had probably already bottomed out at that point

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in time, and so it was probably over anyway. But

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they put this deposit insurance in well, that effectively negated

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the role that the FED had been created for. Because

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deposit insurance, you know, that was going to stop runs.

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People had confidence. Now it was a bigger blanket. So

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the FED had to reinvent itself effectively after that, which

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it did, and it reinvented itself, you know. I think

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the key point was when William mackenzie Martin defined the

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Fed's job as taking the punch bowl away before the

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party overheats. And this was in the nineteen fifties, and

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it was like, the idea was, well, if the economy

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starts overheating, we'll prevent us from going into another depression

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because we'll start raising interest rates, and we'll monitor this well.

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You know, they then create the opposite problem when lbj's spending,

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you know, the guns and butter spending of the nineteen sixties,

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starts to click up in the late sixties and we

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start running chronic deficits. What happens, the FED prints the

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money to monetize those deficits, and that pushes us into

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the inflationary nineteen seventies. And so then later in the

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decade we get this Federal Reserve, new Federal Reserve Act,

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which gives them the mandate of controlling both watching inflation

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and watching unemployment. And so it's like this evolved so

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gradually under the surface over time that everybody just accepts

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the fact that we have them playing this enormous role

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in manipulating the economy in spite of, you know, the

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inherent theoretical fallacies of the idea to begin with, and

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then on top of that, this long track record of

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disastrous results that has come from this institution.

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Speaker 2: So I couldn't agree with you more. I couldn't have

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said it better myself. It's so true that this experiment

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it's going to come to a bad end. One of

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the other things that the Federal Reserve took on since

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the Great Financial Collapse was basically that they're not going

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to let the stock market go down either, and they've

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been very effective at that. So I guess if you're

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holding a lot of stocks a lot of assets, you're

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a beneficiary of asset inflation. You think the Fed's doing

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a great job. But when you go to buy groceries

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or buy a house, you don't think so much. Todd,

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it's great having you on. You find him at toddsheetswriter

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dot com. Links in the show notes to this interview

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on Financial Survival Network dot com. We've now switched totally

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to substack. I'll be sending out a little message explaining

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the decision to give up the traditional website. Todd really

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appreciate you coming on. We'll talk to you again soon.

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Speaker 1: I'm delightful to be with you.

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Speaker 3: Thanks Kerry, thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network.

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Your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go

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to Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more

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than ever