Speaker 1: And here we continue to see them climb up even
Speaker 1: though prices were going down. So this looked like a
Speaker 1: good bullish divergence, but insiders call it what you will.
Speaker 1: They knew something was up because they immediately started to
Speaker 1: dump as prices were dumping, maybe due to the fact
Speaker 1: that these tariffs were going to go forward in a
Speaker 1: couple of months or a month and a half.
Speaker 2: Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. Joining me
Speaker 2: today is Brian from Sentiment, and as you all know,
Speaker 2: we're going to go into the data and look at
Speaker 2: what's happening with Bitcoin and the top all coins and
Speaker 2: how things are playing out for this market. Brian, good
Speaker 2: to see it, but wish the market was better, of course.
Speaker 1: Yeah, good to see you too, Tony. The very very
Speaker 1: small minority of people who've been shorting this tariff madness
Speaker 1: are pretty happy. But for the vast majority of people,
Speaker 1: we are certainly in a time that is pretty unprecedented.
Speaker 2: It's a very.
Speaker 1: Man made retrace that we're seeing right now. Obviously, with
Speaker 1: voluntary choices contributing to.
Speaker 2: Where we are right now.
Speaker 1: And even though neither of us really are political experts,
Speaker 1: I think that's fair to say we can say that
Speaker 1: this does appear to be a very global economic type
Speaker 1: of retrace that has We really haven't seen anything like
Speaker 1: it other than Black Thursday from March of twenty twenty,
Speaker 1: which was in a very different realm related to COVID.
Speaker 2: So crazy stuff right now. Yeah, you know, Brian, some
Speaker 2: people were asking me, is this a black Swan event?
Speaker 2: And I'm like, well, it's kind of a pseudo black
Speaker 2: Swan event because we had some idea from Trump as
Speaker 2: a campaigning that they would approach or have tariffs, but
Speaker 2: I don't think anyone knew that this was a way
Speaker 2: he was going to go about it, whether right or wrong. Right,
Speaker 2: and not to get into the politics of it, but
Speaker 2: the fact of the matter is it's having a big
Speaker 2: effect on the global markets and we are seeing pullbacks
Speaker 2: on the stock market, crypto gold, even even though gold
Speaker 2: was pumping the other day. So this is like some
Speaker 2: sort of pseudo black Swan we want to call it that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I think that's fair to say. It's it's
Speaker 1: kind of a game of chicken right now. It appears
Speaker 1: that people are sort of waking up to that as
Speaker 1: the realistic situation we're in right now. And you know,
Speaker 1: Trump made these tariff announcements last Wednesday, the second he
Speaker 1: was talking about them even before he was elected. For
Speaker 1: those who who were following along, and people kind of said,
Speaker 1: we're going to vote for him anyways. We know this
Speaker 1: is a possibility. We'll see how it goes when we
Speaker 1: get there. Well, we're now there. In fact, tomorrow is
Speaker 1: the official day where most of these rifts are actually
Speaker 1: going to be implemented. A lot of people think it's
Speaker 1: kind of already happened, but the announcement was last week,
Speaker 1: and there's a lot of negotiations right now. We had
Speaker 1: talks yesterday about him putting a ninety day pause on
Speaker 1: all these tariffs. Turned out to be a false rumor
Speaker 1: that CNBC and readers apologized for, I believe, but that
Speaker 1: caused chaos in the markets. It's an ultra sensitive time
Speaker 1: where every piece of news that comes out right now
Speaker 1: is contributing to like two three four percent rise or
Speaker 1: fall in the S and P five hundred, and with
Speaker 1: crypto being correlated to it, it's going along for the
Speaker 1: ride right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's wild man, and I've been trying to
Speaker 2: not be or keep up with it because there's so
Speaker 2: much back and forth, red light, green light confusion. You
Speaker 2: mentioned what happened yesterday. It's just wild. So Brian, let's
Speaker 2: look at the charts, and let's start with bitcoin, because
Speaker 2: we use bitcoin as the measuring stick for the entire
Speaker 2: crypto market. What are you seeing from a sentiment standpoint,
Speaker 2: what are people saying around the tariffs? You know, is
Speaker 2: there a lot of fear around that?
Speaker 1: Yeah, as you would expect, there is a lot of fear.
Speaker 1: I can briefly show how the correlation has kind of
Speaker 1: stayed intact. It's interesting because we had this moment right
Speaker 1: about here on April fourth. This was Friday, right before
Speaker 1: we kicked into the weekend last week, where crypto was
Speaker 1: actually going up and everyone was saying, Okay, there must
Speaker 1: be a decoupling going on because the S and P
Speaker 1: is going this way. Here in Teel, bitcoin was bouncing
Speaker 1: back up above eighty four k at the time, so
Speaker 1: people were quite optimistic. Turned out that it we just
Speaker 1: needed a couple of days for crypto to catch up
Speaker 1: to the downside of what the stock markets were doing,
Speaker 1: and it saw about a ten thousand dollars market cap
Speaker 1: drop just over those next you know, not even two
Speaker 1: days about a day and a half and then it
Speaker 1: bounced and we kind of ended up.
Speaker 2: Back around the eighty k level.
Speaker 1: As of this morning, about three hours ago seven thirty
Speaker 1: am my time, things were looking pretty good, but it
Speaker 1: was happening almost like a regression to the mean, you know,
Speaker 1: kind of a dead cat bounce.
Speaker 2: If you will.
Speaker 1: It appeared based on the news that Trump is really
Speaker 1: ramping it up against China, the other largest economy in
Speaker 1: the world, and China is showing strength themselves and explaining
Speaker 1: that they aren't going aren't going to cater to what
Speaker 1: Trump is asking for. So all this talk was going
Speaker 1: on as markets were rising just a few hours ago,
Speaker 1: and then the inevitable happened and we started to see
Speaker 1: the effects of the increased likelihood of a trade war
Speaker 1: really starting to blast off. And now we're back in
Speaker 1: the negative for the day for a fourth straight day.
Speaker 1: So the sentiment is all over the place. The sentiment
Speaker 1: is full of TA traders saying, oh, here's the support
Speaker 1: and resistance level. But in my opinion, this kind of
Speaker 1: goes beyond a normal analysis of usual support and resistances
Speaker 1: because we're comparing times in which bitcoin tends to top
Speaker 1: or bottom versus here when we didn't have, at least
Speaker 1: to this extent, tariff fears because Trump hadn't made his
Speaker 1: announcement yet. So it's kind of like doing TA analysis
Speaker 1: during COVID five years ago.
Speaker 2: You can't compare.
Speaker 1: Twenty nineteen to March and April of twenty twenty, because
Speaker 1: March and April of twenty twenty we're in this whole
Speaker 1: new world of fear and a new kind of world order,
Speaker 1: if you will. So it's the sentiment is kind of
Speaker 1: just has anybody heard any news? Does anyone know what
Speaker 1: China's going to do? Did Trump say anything? That's that's
Speaker 1: pretty much what we're limited to it this at this moment.
Speaker 2: Yeah, great points, it's unprecedented or even if you want
Speaker 2: to use that word, it's just on a global scale.
Speaker 2: It's macro. So your TA is not going to hold
Speaker 2: up that great here because this thing changes from minute
Speaker 2: to minute, hour to hour sometimes and day to day,
Speaker 2: of course, and it involves almost all the countries in
Speaker 2: the world, So it's like, how do you chart or
Speaker 2: do analysis on that. To your point, we need the resolution,
Speaker 2: some sort of conclusion to all of this stuff before
Speaker 2: we can get back to normalcy.
Speaker 1: Exactly, And it's a combination of people who are taking
Speaker 1: it really seriously and then people who are kind of
Speaker 1: rolling their eyes because the whole.
Speaker 2: Like chat GPT.
Speaker 1: Allegations that appear to be true, as though the administration
Speaker 1: was using some sort of AI technology to come up
Speaker 1: with their percentage terrors for each country. So it's it
Speaker 1: almost feels surreal, like this is a very real thing
Speaker 1: impacting four oh one k's and rots and various investment
Speaker 1: accounts all over the world, yet it's being controlled by
Speaker 1: an administration that people aren't sure what to make of
Speaker 1: right now, whether this is all just manipulation and a
Speaker 1: big initiated game of chicken. Basically, it's so strange. We've
Speaker 1: never seen anything like it.
Speaker 2: Let's take a look at what bitcoin whales are doing,
Speaker 2: the guys who move the market right Are they accumulating?
Speaker 2: Are they dumping? Because this has been very telling over
Speaker 2: the years, we've been watching these statistics totally, so it's
Speaker 2: kind of twofold.
Speaker 1: The overall amounts of bitcoin held by all wallets that
Speaker 1: hold ten or more BTC, that's actually climbing quite healthily
Speaker 1: right now. It's looking very good. There is an asterisk
Speaker 1: to this line because you're including all the big exchange
Speaker 1: addresses out there and liquidity providers. That's why we also
Speaker 1: include this one. And this one aims more at the
Speaker 1: reasonably sized shark and whale while it's holding between ten
Speaker 1: to ten thousand btc, and this one seems to have
Speaker 1: a bit more correlation with Bitcoin's price as of late.
Speaker 1: You can go back to you know, right after Trump
Speaker 1: was elected here on November fifth, both lines climb in unison.
Speaker 1: That's a very good sign. And then you see the
Speaker 1: ten to ten k line going down the smart money
Speaker 1: if you will, that don't include as many exchange addresses,
Speaker 1: and then prices go down with it. That's what these
Speaker 1: big green bars are. Then you can see it starts
Speaker 1: to go back up. Prices go up. We hit that
Speaker 1: all time high on January nineteenth or twentieth, depending on
Speaker 1: where you are in the world, and that's the day
Speaker 1: Trump is inaugurated.
Speaker 2: And here we.
Speaker 1: Continue to see them climb up even though prices were
Speaker 1: going down. So this look like a good bullish divergence.
Speaker 1: But insiders call it what you will. They knew something
Speaker 1: was up because they immediately started to dump as prices
Speaker 1: were dumping, maybe due to the fact that these tariffs
Speaker 1: were going to go forward in a couple months or
Speaker 1: a month and a half. And this is where you
Speaker 1: see the split where even though the ten plus BTC
Speaker 1: wallets are all getting richer, when you get more precise
Speaker 1: with the ten to ten k BTC wallets, they're going
Speaker 1: down for a while, do manage to go up. We
Speaker 1: see a slight rebound as they do go up, and
Speaker 1: then they started dropping again, and they've kind of wavered
Speaker 1: throughout April so far as we get to our lowest
Speaker 1: price essentially since Trump was elected back in November. So
Speaker 1: right now, moral of the story is it's a little split. Overall.
Speaker 1: The massive wallets are getting richer, but the shark in
Speaker 1: whale smaller whale addresses are actually shrinking just a tiny bit.
Speaker 1: So it's kind of a wash at the moment.
Speaker 2: Yeah. The one good thing I was happy to see
Speaker 2: is that coming out of the January to February down
Speaker 2: trend that was starting, we kind of plateaued and then
Speaker 2: you saw to pick up a now a bit of
Speaker 2: a slowing right now. I'm just glad the down trend
Speaker 2: that you know, that slope had me worried a bit
Speaker 2: there in February. Yeah, when both of these lines are
Speaker 2: going down together, It's it's pretty bad news. So this
Speaker 2: this was definitely the signal to take some profit. And
Speaker 2: then this rebound was kind of a relief rally. But
Speaker 2: right around two weeks ago is when things started to
Speaker 2: look a little concerning again. So obviously this goes beyond
Speaker 2: what the smart money's doing. I actually think this paints
Speaker 2: a pretty positive picture that crypto. Crypto's key stakeholders.
Speaker 1: Are hanging on tight and they're not dumping into this
Speaker 1: rally the way that you know, institutional investors are in
Speaker 1: the global stock markets, and for good reason. You know,
Speaker 1: crypto is not an imported or exported commodity or product.
Speaker 1: Therefore it it should have some insulation. But because it's
Speaker 1: so correlated with the S and P five hundred and
Speaker 1: other stock markets, there's always going to be a negative
Speaker 1: impact when you see stock markets have the biggest implosion
Speaker 1: in five years.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and look, if you remove this tariff scenario, right,
Speaker 2: let's say it never happened. There are so many bullish
Speaker 2: things setting up for bitcoin and crypto. I mean, you
Speaker 2: have the most pro crypto government, you have the sec
Speaker 2: dropping cases, you've got a bitcoin reserve in play, you've
Speaker 2: got crypto legislation being worked on by Congress. It's just
Speaker 2: the terrorists put this massive macro uncertainty and fear out there.
Speaker 2: But otherwise, if you're just looking at crypto, it's like,
Speaker 2: oh my god, this setup is bullish for the price appreciation,
Speaker 2: whether it be months or years exactly.
Speaker 1: And let's take a look at what that setup looks
Speaker 1: like in terms of just some fundamental charts here. Because
Speaker 1: I agree with you, I've actually been a little more
Speaker 1: bullish than a lot of other analysis channels out there.
Speaker 1: I didn't think we were about to rebound to a
Speaker 1: quick all time high, but I at least thought that
Speaker 1: bitcoin would be on the road back to the ninety
Speaker 1: k's pretty soon, had this tariff situation not just thrown
Speaker 1: a huge wrench into everything. And one of the main
Speaker 1: reasons why is because the average holding returns, so people
Speaker 1: that have been active over the past thirty days, they
Speaker 1: went way into the negative at the end of March,
Speaker 1: and they kind of have spent most of March in
Speaker 1: the negative and finally kind of went positive a little
Speaker 1: bit briefly right before the tariffs happened. But when you
Speaker 1: see both the short term and long term MVRV lines
Speaker 1: here significantly in the negative territory. It's usually a signal
Speaker 1: that we're gonna get some sort of relief rally, because
Speaker 1: this is a zero sum game, just like any other
Speaker 1: sector out there, and there needs to be enough profiters
Speaker 1: along with losers to justify all the buys and cells
Speaker 1: that are going on on a given day.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. I was talking to someone about this that
Speaker 2: after a strong Q four run up, incredible performance, right,
Speaker 2: it gains on crypto and the stock market, a natural,
Speaker 2: healthy correction and pull back, whatever you want to call it,
Speaker 2: was due, and I think a lot of people anticipated
Speaker 2: in January, but like you said, the monkey wrench of
Speaker 2: the taros took us way further down and then anybody
Speaker 2: was expecting, obviously, and it's gonna probably We're probably gonna
Speaker 2: be stuck here until we get some sort of clarity
Speaker 2: from the governments because this is a global thing that's happening.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and people have different opinions about the timing of
Speaker 1: that healthy retrace you referred to, because it obviously happened
Speaker 1: right as Trump was inaugurated, so people are like, look
Speaker 1: at Trump, what's he doing. He's caused stock markets to
Speaker 1: crash and crypto to crash. Well, he inherited the country
Speaker 1: essentially after about a two year bull run. Right, twenty
Speaker 1: three and twenty four were objectively amazing years for the
Speaker 1: majority of those months for stocks and crypto. So he's
Speaker 1: coming in to office when you've already got you know,
Speaker 1: the long term MVRV for MVRV for bitcoin excuse me,
Speaker 1: at plus thirty one percent. So he's he's inheriting the
Speaker 1: presidency of the United States when the average traders are
Speaker 1: way up in the long term and way up in
Speaker 1: the short term more than they should be, Meaning there's
Speaker 1: supposed to be a mathematical retrace anyways, no matter who
Speaker 1: comes in as president, and I think gradually both due
Speaker 1: to just raw math and due to fears of how
Speaker 1: much these tariffs are going to impact the world for
Speaker 1: the indefinite future. It's been a combination of both that
Speaker 1: pushed crypto down quicker than it otherwise probably would have
Speaker 1: gone down.
Speaker 2: Anyways, what are you seeing on the stable coin side,
Speaker 2: you know, as far as tether and supply and exchanges.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so on dry powder for tether and USDC, they're
Speaker 1: both kind of moving down. Keep in mind, this is
Speaker 1: the top exchange addresses, So we're just looking at the
Speaker 1: top ten right now, which of course holds a significant
Speaker 1: percentage of all the stable coins on exchanges. But I
Speaker 1: can update this chart if you don't mind waiting for
Speaker 1: ten to fifteen seconds, and then I'll add supply and exchanges.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 1: Take off these two for a moment, and then we'll
Speaker 1: do the same for USDC. Okay, So these are the
Speaker 1: new up to date overall ratios of Tether and usd
Speaker 1: coin on exchanges, and they're both going down pretty significantly.
Speaker 1: February third, you know, we saw the overall amount of
Speaker 1: Tether in terms of percentage of overall supply at about
Speaker 1: fifty six point one percent. Usd coin was at sixteen
Speaker 1: point four percent if I hold down shift to drag
Speaker 1: to the right here, So about four point four percent
Speaker 1: less Tether is now in exchanges of the overall supply,
Speaker 1: and about six and a half percent of usd coin
Speaker 1: has declined in terms of percentage of exchange. So the
Speaker 1: two top stable coins are seeing significantly less on exchanges
Speaker 1: at the moment, while Bitcoin actually looks continuously very low.
Speaker 1: We have had a little bit of an uptick since
Speaker 1: the tariffs really spoot traders but this is hardly a
Speaker 1: rise compared to how much we've fallen over the last
Speaker 1: six months.
Speaker 2: Interesting. Yeah, I mean, my my takeaway, and it may
Speaker 2: not be the full thesis on everything that's happening here,
Speaker 2: but it seems like overall a lot of people slowing
Speaker 2: down here on accumulation. Maybe you know, whales who usually
Speaker 2: use tether stable coins to buy their coins on different exchanges,
Speaker 2: maybe slowing down here. Not as much minting because everybody's
Speaker 2: watching the macro uncertainty waiting for something to come to
Speaker 2: a resolution. Right.
Speaker 1: It's all kind of supply and demand, and if there's
Speaker 1: less demand for stable coins on exchanges, they're going to
Speaker 1: be tucked away for safe keeping until the demand picks up.
Speaker 1: So I think because we've seen such a decline and
Speaker 1: less and less enthusiasm for buying the dip as this
Speaker 1: three month retrace has gone on, it's natural for stable
Speaker 1: coins to not be as available on exchanges. They basically
Speaker 1: just hold a kind of a moving goalpost of stable
Speaker 1: coins to be available to traders, and when there's just
Speaker 1: less demand, they'll tuck them away somewhere else.
Speaker 2: And I think that's essentially all that's happening here. Interesting
Speaker 2: let's take a look at the top all coins. Maybe
Speaker 2: we can start with Etherorem. It may be the same
Speaker 2: story for all of them, but you know, there's any
Speaker 2: interesting statistics around each. We'll talk Etherorem XRPCE to Lono.
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely. In fact, before we go to those same
Speaker 1: on chain metrics, we can also check out the positive
Speaker 1: versus negative sentiment for the top four non stable coins.
Speaker 1: And what really sticks out here Solana a couple weeks ago,
Speaker 1: before we really started to fall, they had this absurd
Speaker 1: level of positive commentary going on. I'm I'm ninety five
Speaker 1: percent sure that this was bot driven. So it's it's
Speaker 1: like this strange anomaly, and that's that's the problem with
Speaker 1: the current state of social media. Until they really start
Speaker 1: to clean things up, we're at the bit of the
Speaker 1: bit of mercy of like how these these different social
Speaker 1: media accounts, how authentic they are. So Solana had this weird,
Speaker 1: weird anomaly, they're still showing way more positive sentiment than
Speaker 1: the others, even though there's no clear reason why it's
Speaker 1: suddenly getting so much bullishness. I'm just going to remove
Speaker 1: it for the time being so we can focus on
Speaker 1: the other three.
Speaker 2: And by the way, just and some color that does
Speaker 2: look manipulating, because there was actually some negative news that
Speaker 2: came out the other day where the staking unlocks and
Speaker 2: whales Alana wheels were dumping.
Speaker 1: I heard about that, and there was a lot of
Speaker 1: talk about the network stability too, as maybe once or
Speaker 1: twice a month we get something potentially going wrong with
Speaker 1: Solana's network and it causing even if it's for like
Speaker 1: a minute, you know, if transactions aren't working or going
Speaker 1: through at the speed they normally do, it becomes a
Speaker 1: talking point. So the fact that we saw a positive
Speaker 1: sentiment just going nuts to levels we hadn't seen before
Speaker 1: was highly unusual, and I agree with you. But as
Speaker 1: far as Bitcoin, so it's sitting a little under average
Speaker 1: right now. There's a slight bearish bias, as there probably
Speaker 1: should be when you see you know, the top asset
Speaker 1: and crypto dropping to the extent it was. Ethereum is
Speaker 1: way down there as well. Ethereum's a little below where
Speaker 1: Bitcoin is only getting about one point one positive comment
Speaker 1: comments for every one a negative comment, So that's essentially
Speaker 1: like net neutral, which is unusual. Usually it's more like
Speaker 1: one and a half to one for each of the
Speaker 1: top assets, and then XRP is actually way way high,
Speaker 1: which is interesting to me. If I switched the price
Speaker 1: over really quick. It hasn't done anything too special, but
Speaker 1: you know, there might be some news I'm unaware of
Speaker 1: either way.
Speaker 2: This yeah, go ahead. There was actually news Ah shit,
Speaker 2: what was it? Yeah? Oh, today, I think the first
Speaker 2: XRP ETF goes live. It's a two x long ETF,
Speaker 2: but it also rippled it a massive acquisition for like
Speaker 2: one point twenty five billion. I just saw that news
Speaker 2: this morning, honestly and thought I was like, wait, whoa,
Speaker 2: this is huge. It's like the biggest acquisition in the
Speaker 2: crypto market or industry, you know, since its inception. So
Speaker 2: I think that might be driving some of it.
Speaker 1: What an interesting day to launch an ETF and announce
Speaker 1: an acquisition. It's probably getting fairly swept under the rug,
Speaker 1: except for the XRP community that's of course tracking this stuff.
Speaker 1: So that makes total sense because this is the highest
Speaker 1: positive point we've seen for XRP since November twenty eighth,
Speaker 1: almost a yeah, a little over a four month high,
Speaker 1: So there's a lot of bullishness there. I don't think
Speaker 1: that's necessarily going to push xrp's prices down. But the
Speaker 1: general rule of thumb, folks is when you see super
Speaker 1: high positive sentiment, it marks tops. When you see super
Speaker 1: low sentiment, it marks bottoms, because prices always go the
Speaker 1: opposite direction of the crowds expectations.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, eight. How is it looking? Because I know
Speaker 2: eth is men. I'm an ETH holder, so I'm feeling
Speaker 2: the pain that you know. It's it's been rough and
Speaker 2: the charts and the eighth BETC chart is brutal.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you took the word out of my mouth. Rough
Speaker 1: is the best way to describe it. It's been by
Speaker 1: far the most disappointing top ten, top twenty non stable
Speaker 1: coin out there for about the last year, almost two
Speaker 1: years now. It's had its moments, very short bursts, but overall,
Speaker 1: Ethereum has gotten hammered. Since the top on December fifteenth,
Speaker 1: we've seen the price drop about sixty three percent. Just
Speaker 1: to give some perspective of how painful this has been.
Speaker 1: It's kind of been dabbling in the low to high
Speaker 1: fourteen hundreds lately, and we haven't seen that price since
Speaker 1: late twenty twenty two, when the actually yeah, right before
Speaker 1: the FTX collapse.
Speaker 2: No, my mistake.
Speaker 1: This is it's very close. But October twenty twenty three
Speaker 1: we saw similar prices. It was a little after the
Speaker 1: FTX collapse, if you want to say January. It was
Speaker 1: technically the last time we saw it, but huge, huge
Speaker 1: drops in market cap and mostly drops in utility following that.
Speaker 1: So we did see a big transact action volume spike yesterday.
Speaker 1: This was about a four week high, and that sort
Speaker 1: of reflects in daily active addresses, circulation, and network growth,
Speaker 1: which are all plotted here. In short, they're all kind
Speaker 1: of declining because demand is drying up. But if we
Speaker 1: add on fees, just to give one upside to all
Speaker 1: of this madness, the fees are almost nothing right now.
Speaker 1: It's per transaction. You're paying about twenty one and a
Speaker 1: half cents forever each transaction. Compared that to the spike
Speaker 1: of seven dollars twenty three cents on November twelfth. I've
Speaker 1: seen times when it was twenty five dollars plus back
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, twenty twenty one, so this usually is
Speaker 1: a good sign of a bottom occurring. You can see
Speaker 1: it kind of happened here in early to mid September,
Speaker 1: when fees get low and demand is at its lowest.
Speaker 1: You're essentially getting invited to start using the Ethereum network
Speaker 1: a lot more, because one of the critiques about ethereum
Speaker 1: is how expensive it often can get for making transfers,
Speaker 1: and right now it's not, so that's a good sign. Also,
Speaker 1: the average returns are just absolutely ridiculously low at the moment,
Speaker 1: negative twenty percent for while it's active in the past
Speaker 1: thirty days, negative forty eight percent for those active in
Speaker 1: the past year, and especially that last number. We haven't
Speaker 1: seen it that low since the FTX collapse, when we
Speaker 1: saw ethereum getting as low as one thousand to eleven
Speaker 1: hundred or so.
Speaker 2: So that's a very good sign to me.
Speaker 1: What I'd like to see still is more shorting going on.
Speaker 1: That's usually a clear sign of a body. You do
Speaker 1: see this little tiny red sliver right here indicating that
Speaker 1: traders on binance are beginning to bet against the asset,
Speaker 1: and usually that's an indication that we can see a
Speaker 1: turnaround soon with those short liquidations adding as rocket fuel
Speaker 1: to prices bouncing back up. But this all just has
Speaker 1: to be taken with a grain of salt, considering the
Speaker 1: unique global economic circumstances we're in right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And one of the things I'm hoping
Speaker 2: for and what we've seen with other assets, that if
Speaker 2: the herd is thinking Etheroreum is dead, oh it's horrible,
Speaker 2: it's never going to recover. I think we saw this
Speaker 2: with XRP. I think it was that the market does
Speaker 2: the opposite, right because there's so much negative sentiment and
Speaker 2: it's kind of like this that it forces the crowd
Speaker 2: to buy back in because they're like, oh my god,
Speaker 2: etherorem is moving again. We all thought it was dead exactly. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The ideal set up is when you've got every other
Speaker 1: person on your timeline telling you to stay away from
Speaker 1: an asset because it's no longer relevant.
Speaker 2: You shouldn't trust it. It's dead, like you said.
Speaker 1: And time and time again we've seen that be the
Speaker 1: catalyst for a huge breakout. So, Brian, any other you
Speaker 1: know data sets for XRP, Salona or eth I know,
Speaker 1: it's like.
Speaker 2: It's all everything's down right now. We're waiting for this
Speaker 2: macro uncertainty to be lifted. But anything else to call out,
Speaker 2: you think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just to give a quick update on Solana since
Speaker 1: we didn't really talk about it other than the bought manipulation.
Speaker 1: It's not being talked about much at all. In fact,
Speaker 1: this is some of the lowest levels of discussions related
Speaker 1: to Solona since well at least since mid mid to
Speaker 1: late March. But I would anticipate it's going to start
Speaker 1: dipping even lower than that as it kind of just
Speaker 1: blends it into the other top caps for the time being.
Speaker 2: So there might be some upside because it's.
Speaker 1: Under the radar at the moment, you know, completely independent
Speaker 1: from what the body accounts are doing right now. I
Speaker 1: think it's it's really starting to see some negative sentiment
Speaker 1: similar to Ethereum. If we were to remove all of
Speaker 1: those bots, they seem to be kind of in similar spots.
Speaker 1: So you know, if let's say the tariff situation gets
Speaker 1: solved an hour after this recording between us Tony, I
Speaker 1: think the first assets you want to look at are
Speaker 1: the ones that are getting you know, poo pooed on
Speaker 1: the most, if you will, and that starts with Ethereum
Speaker 1: and Solana. To me, I even prepared this chart, long
Speaker 1: story short. When these bars are over this dash line,
Speaker 1: it indicates that all of the average trading returns of
Speaker 1: people in the midterm, like thirty sixty or ninety days.
Speaker 1: There they're in severe pain, making the asset under bought
Speaker 1: or slightly undervalued. It doesn't mean tomorrow we're going to
Speaker 1: start seeing a huge bounce because it's so based on
Speaker 1: this unique economic circumstance. But if and when that unique
Speaker 1: and strange circumstance goes away, all of these are candidates
Speaker 1: for big bounces, especially the ones. Coincidentally, this one named
Speaker 1: Bounce is seeing one of the most underbought signals we've
Speaker 1: got linear powerpool REEF. Most of these are pretty obscure assets.
Speaker 1: Most of you aren't tracking, but there's a reason they're
Speaker 1: in like the most pain, and they've fallen off the
Speaker 1: map so much that there's probably going to be some
Speaker 1: point in which they begin to catch up. But almost
Speaker 1: every asset on here is showing anywhere between a mild
Speaker 1: semi underbot like Bitcoin to a significant underbot signal like
Speaker 1: some of these.
Speaker 2: Interesting Well, Brian, I'm hoping that maybe by the next
Speaker 2: time we meet in a couple of weeks, that this
Speaker 2: terrort situation is resolved and maybe markets can start to balance.
Speaker 2: Maybe there's some good news from the FET they're cutting rates,
Speaker 2: maybe doing some liquidity injections to help the markets. Who knows,
Speaker 2: and we can put some of this stuff behind us,
Speaker 2: But right now it's still max pain.
Speaker 1: It seems like, yeah, it's I still remember what was
Speaker 1: it yesterday or two days ago when Trump was talking
Speaker 1: about how you don't want to panic, and to me,
Speaker 1: that's not good. You don't want your president telling you
Speaker 1: to not panic because that seems to be a sign
Speaker 1: that there's some manipulation at play, and he's telling people
Speaker 1: what to do with their investments, which normally doesn't happen from.
Speaker 2: The leader of the country.
Speaker 1: So we're just we're kind of at the mercy of
Speaker 1: all the policy shuffling and bluffing and games of chicken
Speaker 1: going on right now. And the best thing you can
Speaker 1: do is not go to extreme in either direction because
Speaker 1: so much is an unknown.
Speaker 2: Yea, you know.
Speaker 1: The last thing you want to do is buy a
Speaker 1: ton and watch things go down way further, or sell
Speaker 1: a ton and watch tomorrow be the day of salvation
Speaker 1: for everybody. So I just recommend being safe right now
Speaker 1: and keeping your mind off of things and waiting for
Speaker 1: that big headline that'll change the markets a bit.
Speaker 2: Yeah, great tips, And that's what I've been doing. I've
Speaker 2: been telling folks, I'm just waiting to see. I'm not
Speaker 2: buying a whole bunch of dips. I'm not selling anything.
Speaker 2: I'm just watching. And also, you know, I look at
Speaker 2: the markets from the macro and I don't I'm not
Speaker 2: putting money that I can't afford to lose or that's
Speaker 2: going to keep me up a night. So even though
Speaker 2: the market's down and my portfolio is down, I'm still
Speaker 2: paying my bills, I'm still living, and I try to,
Speaker 2: you know, tell people be careful, balance it out, don't
Speaker 2: put too much of you can't afford to lose, because
Speaker 2: markets move up and down different points based on different catalysts.
Speaker 2: But from the macro, the markets go up, right, as
Speaker 2: long as they keep debasing currency and printing money, markets
Speaker 2: will go up.
Speaker 1: Great advice, Tony. Hopefully people are staying safe out there.
Speaker 2: For sure, all right, Brian, great stuff, Thank you so much,
Speaker 2: And like I said, hope we were in better conditions
Speaker 2: two weeks from now. Fingers crossed man