WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.120 --> 00:00:03.480 And here we continue to see them climb up even 2 00:00:03.520 --> 00:00:06.480 though prices were going down. So this looked like a 3 00:00:06.519 --> 00:00:11.240 good bullish divergence, but insiders call it what you will. 4 00:00:11.599 --> 00:00:14.800 They knew something was up because they immediately started to 5 00:00:14.880 --> 00:00:19.120 dump as prices were dumping, maybe due to the fact 6 00:00:19.120 --> 00:00:21.640 that these tariffs were going to go forward in a 7 00:00:21.679 --> 00:00:23.120 couple of months or a month and a half. 8 00:00:27.760 --> 00:00:31.280 Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto podcast. Joining me 9 00:00:31.320 --> 00:00:34.200 today is Brian from Sentiment, and as you all know, 10 00:00:34.240 --> 00:00:36.320 we're going to go into the data and look at 11 00:00:36.640 --> 00:00:39.000 what's happening with Bitcoin and the top all coins and 12 00:00:39.640 --> 00:00:42.600 how things are playing out for this market. Brian, good 13 00:00:42.600 --> 00:00:44.880 to see it, but wish the market was better, of course. 14 00:00:45.479 --> 00:00:48.320 Yeah, good to see you too, Tony. The very very 15 00:00:48.359 --> 00:00:52.119 small minority of people who've been shorting this tariff madness 16 00:00:52.399 --> 00:00:55.280 are pretty happy. But for the vast majority of people, 17 00:00:55.359 --> 00:00:58.960 we are certainly in a time that is pretty unprecedented. 18 00:00:59.439 --> 00:01:00.039 It's a very. 19 00:01:01.479 --> 00:01:04.159 Man made retrace that we're seeing right now. Obviously, with 20 00:01:05.120 --> 00:01:07.280 voluntary choices contributing to. 21 00:01:07.439 --> 00:01:08.560 Where we are right now. 22 00:01:08.599 --> 00:01:12.519 And even though neither of us really are political experts, 23 00:01:12.680 --> 00:01:16.200 I think that's fair to say we can say that 24 00:01:16.280 --> 00:01:20.159 this does appear to be a very global economic type 25 00:01:20.159 --> 00:01:24.640 of retrace that has We really haven't seen anything like 26 00:01:24.680 --> 00:01:28.680 it other than Black Thursday from March of twenty twenty, 27 00:01:28.719 --> 00:01:32.079 which was in a very different realm related to COVID. 28 00:01:32.200 --> 00:01:36.079 So crazy stuff right now. Yeah, you know, Brian, some 29 00:01:36.120 --> 00:01:38.280 people were asking me, is this a black Swan event? 30 00:01:38.359 --> 00:01:40.760 And I'm like, well, it's kind of a pseudo black 31 00:01:40.760 --> 00:01:44.319 Swan event because we had some idea from Trump as 32 00:01:44.359 --> 00:01:49.079 a campaigning that they would approach or have tariffs, but 33 00:01:49.079 --> 00:01:51.719 I don't think anyone knew that this was a way 34 00:01:51.920 --> 00:01:54.359 he was going to go about it, whether right or wrong. Right, 35 00:01:55.719 --> 00:01:57.319 and not to get into the politics of it, but 36 00:01:57.719 --> 00:02:00.000 the fact of the matter is it's having a big 37 00:02:00.079 --> 00:02:03.560 effect on the global markets and we are seeing pullbacks 38 00:02:03.560 --> 00:02:06.760 on the stock market, crypto gold, even even though gold 39 00:02:06.840 --> 00:02:11.039 was pumping the other day. So this is like some 40 00:02:11.080 --> 00:02:13.439 sort of pseudo black Swan we want to call it that. 41 00:02:14.039 --> 00:02:16.319 Yeah, No, I think that's fair to say. It's it's 42 00:02:16.400 --> 00:02:19.759 kind of a game of chicken right now. It appears 43 00:02:19.800 --> 00:02:22.719 that people are sort of waking up to that as 44 00:02:22.759 --> 00:02:27.599 the realistic situation we're in right now. And you know, 45 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:33.680 Trump made these tariff announcements last Wednesday, the second he 46 00:02:33.960 --> 00:02:36.360 was talking about them even before he was elected. For 47 00:02:36.439 --> 00:02:39.680 those who who were following along, and people kind of said, 48 00:02:40.439 --> 00:02:42.319 we're going to vote for him anyways. We know this 49 00:02:42.360 --> 00:02:44.120 is a possibility. We'll see how it goes when we 50 00:02:44.159 --> 00:02:47.840 get there. Well, we're now there. In fact, tomorrow is 51 00:02:47.879 --> 00:02:51.680 the official day where most of these rifts are actually 52 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:53.439 going to be implemented. A lot of people think it's 53 00:02:53.560 --> 00:02:57.159 kind of already happened, but the announcement was last week, 54 00:02:57.240 --> 00:03:00.360 and there's a lot of negotiations right now. We had 55 00:03:00.520 --> 00:03:04.000 talks yesterday about him putting a ninety day pause on 56 00:03:04.120 --> 00:03:06.680 all these tariffs. Turned out to be a false rumor 57 00:03:06.919 --> 00:03:11.680 that CNBC and readers apologized for, I believe, but that 58 00:03:11.879 --> 00:03:15.360 caused chaos in the markets. It's an ultra sensitive time 59 00:03:15.360 --> 00:03:17.840 where every piece of news that comes out right now 60 00:03:18.599 --> 00:03:22.879 is contributing to like two three four percent rise or 61 00:03:22.960 --> 00:03:25.560 fall in the S and P five hundred, and with 62 00:03:25.719 --> 00:03:30.199 crypto being correlated to it, it's going along for the 63 00:03:30.280 --> 00:03:30.919 ride right now. 64 00:03:32.039 --> 00:03:35.560 Yeah, it's it's wild man, and I've been trying to 65 00:03:35.639 --> 00:03:39.280 not be or keep up with it because there's so 66 00:03:39.360 --> 00:03:43.120 much back and forth, red light, green light confusion. You 67 00:03:43.199 --> 00:03:47.400 mentioned what happened yesterday. It's just wild. So Brian, let's 68 00:03:47.400 --> 00:03:50.000 look at the charts, and let's start with bitcoin, because 69 00:03:50.000 --> 00:03:52.039 we use bitcoin as the measuring stick for the entire 70 00:03:52.080 --> 00:03:55.280 crypto market. What are you seeing from a sentiment standpoint, 71 00:03:55.319 --> 00:03:57.560 what are people saying around the tariffs? You know, is 72 00:03:57.599 --> 00:03:59.400 there a lot of fear around that? 73 00:03:59.680 --> 00:04:02.319 Yeah, as you would expect, there is a lot of fear. 74 00:04:02.919 --> 00:04:07.039 I can briefly show how the correlation has kind of 75 00:04:07.039 --> 00:04:12.680 stayed intact. It's interesting because we had this moment right 76 00:04:12.719 --> 00:04:17.680 about here on April fourth. This was Friday, right before 77 00:04:17.680 --> 00:04:20.720 we kicked into the weekend last week, where crypto was 78 00:04:20.759 --> 00:04:24.199 actually going up and everyone was saying, Okay, there must 79 00:04:24.240 --> 00:04:26.519 be a decoupling going on because the S and P 80 00:04:26.680 --> 00:04:30.120 is going this way. Here in Teel, bitcoin was bouncing 81 00:04:30.279 --> 00:04:33.040 back up above eighty four k at the time, so 82 00:04:33.600 --> 00:04:38.120 people were quite optimistic. Turned out that it we just 83 00:04:38.199 --> 00:04:40.360 needed a couple of days for crypto to catch up 84 00:04:41.160 --> 00:04:44.079 to the downside of what the stock markets were doing, 85 00:04:44.120 --> 00:04:47.720 and it saw about a ten thousand dollars market cap 86 00:04:47.839 --> 00:04:51.560 drop just over those next you know, not even two 87 00:04:51.639 --> 00:04:53.839 days about a day and a half and then it 88 00:04:53.920 --> 00:04:56.279 bounced and we kind of ended up. 89 00:04:56.319 --> 00:04:58.519 Back around the eighty k level. 90 00:04:58.680 --> 00:05:03.279 As of this morning, about three hours ago seven thirty 91 00:05:03.319 --> 00:05:07.040 am my time, things were looking pretty good, but it 92 00:05:07.199 --> 00:05:12.560 was happening almost like a regression to the mean, you know, 93 00:05:12.680 --> 00:05:14.279 kind of a dead cat bounce. 94 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:14.519 If you will. 95 00:05:14.639 --> 00:05:19.480 It appeared based on the news that Trump is really 96 00:05:19.600 --> 00:05:23.759 ramping it up against China, the other largest economy in 97 00:05:23.800 --> 00:05:30.480 the world, and China is showing strength themselves and explaining 98 00:05:30.519 --> 00:05:35.040 that they aren't going aren't going to cater to what 99 00:05:35.079 --> 00:05:37.519 Trump is asking for. So all this talk was going 100 00:05:37.519 --> 00:05:41.480 on as markets were rising just a few hours ago, 101 00:05:41.560 --> 00:05:44.519 and then the inevitable happened and we started to see 102 00:05:44.600 --> 00:05:49.800 the effects of the increased likelihood of a trade war 103 00:05:50.639 --> 00:05:52.959 really starting to blast off. And now we're back in 104 00:05:53.000 --> 00:05:55.920 the negative for the day for a fourth straight day. 105 00:05:56.240 --> 00:06:00.720 So the sentiment is all over the place. The sentiment 106 00:06:00.839 --> 00:06:03.319 is full of TA traders saying, oh, here's the support 107 00:06:03.319 --> 00:06:06.560 and resistance level. But in my opinion, this kind of 108 00:06:06.600 --> 00:06:12.720 goes beyond a normal analysis of usual support and resistances 109 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:17.079 because we're comparing times in which bitcoin tends to top 110 00:06:17.160 --> 00:06:22.920 or bottom versus here when we didn't have, at least 111 00:06:23.000 --> 00:06:26.600 to this extent, tariff fears because Trump hadn't made his 112 00:06:26.600 --> 00:06:31.439 announcement yet. So it's kind of like doing TA analysis 113 00:06:31.519 --> 00:06:32.759 during COVID five years ago. 114 00:06:33.319 --> 00:06:34.439 You can't compare. 115 00:06:34.120 --> 00:06:37.839 Twenty nineteen to March and April of twenty twenty, because 116 00:06:38.279 --> 00:06:40.279 March and April of twenty twenty we're in this whole 117 00:06:40.279 --> 00:06:45.680 new world of fear and a new kind of world order, 118 00:06:45.720 --> 00:06:49.000 if you will. So it's the sentiment is kind of 119 00:06:49.079 --> 00:06:52.879 just has anybody heard any news? Does anyone know what 120 00:06:53.000 --> 00:06:55.800 China's going to do? Did Trump say anything? That's that's 121 00:06:55.839 --> 00:06:58.480 pretty much what we're limited to it this at this moment. 122 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:03.839 Yeah, great points, it's unprecedented or even if you want 123 00:07:03.839 --> 00:07:07.319 to use that word, it's just on a global scale. 124 00:07:07.319 --> 00:07:09.839 It's macro. So your TA is not going to hold 125 00:07:09.920 --> 00:07:12.879 up that great here because this thing changes from minute 126 00:07:12.879 --> 00:07:15.240 to minute, hour to hour sometimes and day to day, 127 00:07:15.240 --> 00:07:19.279 of course, and it involves almost all the countries in 128 00:07:19.319 --> 00:07:23.120 the world, So it's like, how do you chart or 129 00:07:23.160 --> 00:07:26.319 do analysis on that. To your point, we need the resolution, 130 00:07:26.639 --> 00:07:29.240 some sort of conclusion to all of this stuff before 131 00:07:29.279 --> 00:07:31.480 we can get back to normalcy. 132 00:07:31.759 --> 00:07:34.879 Exactly, And it's a combination of people who are taking 133 00:07:34.920 --> 00:07:37.720 it really seriously and then people who are kind of 134 00:07:37.800 --> 00:07:39.439 rolling their eyes because the whole. 135 00:07:39.240 --> 00:07:42.240 Like chat GPT. 136 00:07:43.040 --> 00:07:46.879 Allegations that appear to be true, as though the administration 137 00:07:48.000 --> 00:07:50.560 was using some sort of AI technology to come up 138 00:07:50.600 --> 00:07:53.399 with their percentage terrors for each country. So it's it 139 00:07:53.480 --> 00:07:56.360 almost feels surreal, like this is a very real thing 140 00:07:56.560 --> 00:08:01.279 impacting four oh one k's and rots and various investment 141 00:08:01.279 --> 00:08:08.360 accounts all over the world, yet it's being controlled by 142 00:08:08.439 --> 00:08:13.079 an administration that people aren't sure what to make of 143 00:08:13.199 --> 00:08:16.040 right now, whether this is all just manipulation and a 144 00:08:16.160 --> 00:08:24.240 big initiated game of chicken. Basically, it's so strange. We've 145 00:08:24.279 --> 00:08:25.360 never seen anything like it. 146 00:08:27.279 --> 00:08:29.480 Let's take a look at what bitcoin whales are doing, 147 00:08:29.720 --> 00:08:33.279 the guys who move the market right Are they accumulating? 148 00:08:33.480 --> 00:08:38.120 Are they dumping? Because this has been very telling over 149 00:08:38.120 --> 00:08:42.000 the years, we've been watching these statistics totally, so it's 150 00:08:42.080 --> 00:08:42.840 kind of twofold. 151 00:08:43.480 --> 00:08:48.200 The overall amounts of bitcoin held by all wallets that 152 00:08:48.279 --> 00:08:53.080 hold ten or more BTC, that's actually climbing quite healthily 153 00:08:53.200 --> 00:08:57.639 right now. It's looking very good. There is an asterisk 154 00:08:57.759 --> 00:09:01.440 to this line because you're including all the big exchange 155 00:09:01.440 --> 00:09:05.960 addresses out there and liquidity providers. That's why we also 156 00:09:06.000 --> 00:09:09.679 include this one. And this one aims more at the 157 00:09:09.919 --> 00:09:14.399 reasonably sized shark and whale while it's holding between ten 158 00:09:14.919 --> 00:09:19.960 to ten thousand btc, and this one seems to have 159 00:09:20.039 --> 00:09:23.000 a bit more correlation with Bitcoin's price as of late. 160 00:09:23.519 --> 00:09:25.600 You can go back to you know, right after Trump 161 00:09:25.679 --> 00:09:30.200 was elected here on November fifth, both lines climb in unison. 162 00:09:30.240 --> 00:09:32.559 That's a very good sign. And then you see the 163 00:09:33.200 --> 00:09:36.120 ten to ten k line going down the smart money 164 00:09:36.120 --> 00:09:39.120 if you will, that don't include as many exchange addresses, 165 00:09:39.559 --> 00:09:41.679 and then prices go down with it. That's what these 166 00:09:41.879 --> 00:09:44.399 big green bars are. Then you can see it starts 167 00:09:44.440 --> 00:09:46.519 to go back up. Prices go up. We hit that 168 00:09:46.840 --> 00:09:50.000 all time high on January nineteenth or twentieth, depending on 169 00:09:50.000 --> 00:09:52.480 where you are in the world, and that's the day 170 00:09:52.600 --> 00:09:53.679 Trump is inaugurated. 171 00:09:54.159 --> 00:09:55.320 And here we. 172 00:09:55.240 --> 00:09:58.679 Continue to see them climb up even though prices were 173 00:09:58.679 --> 00:10:01.840 going down. So this look like a good bullish divergence. 174 00:10:01.919 --> 00:10:06.480 But insiders call it what you will. They knew something 175 00:10:06.559 --> 00:10:10.159 was up because they immediately started to dump as prices 176 00:10:10.200 --> 00:10:13.919 were dumping, maybe due to the fact that these tariffs 177 00:10:13.960 --> 00:10:16.440 were going to go forward in a couple months or 178 00:10:16.440 --> 00:10:19.240 a month and a half. And this is where you 179 00:10:19.279 --> 00:10:22.440 see the split where even though the ten plus BTC 180 00:10:22.519 --> 00:10:25.120 wallets are all getting richer, when you get more precise 181 00:10:25.159 --> 00:10:28.279 with the ten to ten k BTC wallets, they're going 182 00:10:28.320 --> 00:10:31.159 down for a while, do manage to go up. We 183 00:10:31.200 --> 00:10:34.840 see a slight rebound as they do go up, and 184 00:10:34.879 --> 00:10:37.759 then they started dropping again, and they've kind of wavered 185 00:10:37.799 --> 00:10:41.000 throughout April so far as we get to our lowest 186 00:10:41.080 --> 00:10:45.679 price essentially since Trump was elected back in November. So 187 00:10:45.879 --> 00:10:51.480 right now, moral of the story is it's a little split. Overall. 188 00:10:51.559 --> 00:10:56.240 The massive wallets are getting richer, but the shark in 189 00:10:56.360 --> 00:11:01.080 whale smaller whale addresses are actually shrinking just a tiny bit. 190 00:11:01.200 --> 00:11:02.759 So it's kind of a wash at the moment. 191 00:11:04.240 --> 00:11:06.440 Yeah. The one good thing I was happy to see 192 00:11:06.480 --> 00:11:11.440 is that coming out of the January to February down 193 00:11:11.480 --> 00:11:15.279 trend that was starting, we kind of plateaued and then 194 00:11:15.440 --> 00:11:16.960 you saw to pick up a now a bit of 195 00:11:17.000 --> 00:11:20.000 a slowing right now. I'm just glad the down trend 196 00:11:20.000 --> 00:11:22.679 that you know, that slope had me worried a bit 197 00:11:22.720 --> 00:11:26.519 there in February. Yeah, when both of these lines are 198 00:11:26.519 --> 00:11:29.759 going down together, It's it's pretty bad news. So this 199 00:11:29.759 --> 00:11:34.399 this was definitely the signal to take some profit. And 200 00:11:34.440 --> 00:11:36.759 then this rebound was kind of a relief rally. But 201 00:11:37.519 --> 00:11:40.840 right around two weeks ago is when things started to 202 00:11:40.840 --> 00:11:44.320 look a little concerning again. So obviously this goes beyond 203 00:11:44.320 --> 00:11:47.159 what the smart money's doing. I actually think this paints 204 00:11:47.159 --> 00:11:52.519 a pretty positive picture that crypto. Crypto's key stakeholders. 205 00:11:51.799 --> 00:11:54.440 Are hanging on tight and they're not dumping into this 206 00:11:54.519 --> 00:11:58.360 rally the way that you know, institutional investors are in 207 00:11:58.399 --> 00:12:02.120 the global stock markets, and for good reason. You know, 208 00:12:02.279 --> 00:12:08.440 crypto is not an imported or exported commodity or product. 209 00:12:08.600 --> 00:12:12.159 Therefore it it should have some insulation. But because it's 210 00:12:12.159 --> 00:12:14.960 so correlated with the S and P five hundred and 211 00:12:15.039 --> 00:12:18.960 other stock markets, there's always going to be a negative 212 00:12:19.000 --> 00:12:22.919 impact when you see stock markets have the biggest implosion 213 00:12:23.000 --> 00:12:23.720 in five years. 214 00:12:24.919 --> 00:12:29.159 Yeah, and look, if you remove this tariff scenario, right, 215 00:12:29.240 --> 00:12:33.039 let's say it never happened. There are so many bullish 216 00:12:33.039 --> 00:12:35.600 things setting up for bitcoin and crypto. I mean, you 217 00:12:35.600 --> 00:12:38.600 have the most pro crypto government, you have the sec 218 00:12:38.759 --> 00:12:43.200 dropping cases, you've got a bitcoin reserve in play, you've 219 00:12:43.240 --> 00:12:46.200 got crypto legislation being worked on by Congress. It's just 220 00:12:46.639 --> 00:12:50.200 the terrorists put this massive macro uncertainty and fear out there. 221 00:12:50.559 --> 00:12:53.279 But otherwise, if you're just looking at crypto, it's like, 222 00:12:53.320 --> 00:12:57.879 oh my god, this setup is bullish for the price appreciation, 223 00:12:58.159 --> 00:13:01.320 whether it be months or years exactly. 224 00:13:01.360 --> 00:13:03.879 And let's take a look at what that setup looks 225 00:13:03.919 --> 00:13:07.159 like in terms of just some fundamental charts here. Because 226 00:13:07.879 --> 00:13:09.919 I agree with you, I've actually been a little more 227 00:13:09.960 --> 00:13:15.080 bullish than a lot of other analysis channels out there. 228 00:13:15.600 --> 00:13:17.440 I didn't think we were about to rebound to a 229 00:13:17.519 --> 00:13:19.639 quick all time high, but I at least thought that 230 00:13:19.679 --> 00:13:22.639 bitcoin would be on the road back to the ninety 231 00:13:22.720 --> 00:13:27.039 k's pretty soon, had this tariff situation not just thrown 232 00:13:27.080 --> 00:13:31.360 a huge wrench into everything. And one of the main 233 00:13:31.399 --> 00:13:38.039 reasons why is because the average holding returns, so people 234 00:13:38.080 --> 00:13:40.840 that have been active over the past thirty days, they 235 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:45.240 went way into the negative at the end of March, 236 00:13:45.879 --> 00:13:49.159 and they kind of have spent most of March in 237 00:13:49.240 --> 00:13:52.440 the negative and finally kind of went positive a little 238 00:13:52.440 --> 00:13:56.879 bit briefly right before the tariffs happened. But when you 239 00:13:56.919 --> 00:14:01.480 see both the short term and long term MVRV lines 240 00:14:01.519 --> 00:14:05.720 here significantly in the negative territory. It's usually a signal 241 00:14:05.759 --> 00:14:08.000 that we're gonna get some sort of relief rally, because 242 00:14:08.039 --> 00:14:10.279 this is a zero sum game, just like any other 243 00:14:10.360 --> 00:14:14.679 sector out there, and there needs to be enough profiters 244 00:14:14.840 --> 00:14:19.480 along with losers to justify all the buys and cells 245 00:14:19.480 --> 00:14:20.840 that are going on on a given day. 246 00:14:22.960 --> 00:14:25.879 Yeah. Absolutely. I was talking to someone about this that 247 00:14:26.080 --> 00:14:29.320 after a strong Q four run up, incredible performance, right, 248 00:14:29.360 --> 00:14:32.399 it gains on crypto and the stock market, a natural, 249 00:14:32.480 --> 00:14:35.440 healthy correction and pull back, whatever you want to call it, 250 00:14:35.600 --> 00:14:38.200 was due, and I think a lot of people anticipated 251 00:14:38.240 --> 00:14:40.799 in January, but like you said, the monkey wrench of 252 00:14:40.840 --> 00:14:44.480 the taros took us way further down and then anybody 253 00:14:44.639 --> 00:14:48.519 was expecting, obviously, and it's gonna probably We're probably gonna 254 00:14:48.519 --> 00:14:50.879 be stuck here until we get some sort of clarity 255 00:14:52.159 --> 00:14:55.399 from the governments because this is a global thing that's happening. 256 00:14:56.000 --> 00:14:58.960 Yeah, and people have different opinions about the timing of 257 00:14:59.000 --> 00:15:03.279 that healthy retrace you referred to, because it obviously happened 258 00:15:03.720 --> 00:15:06.559 right as Trump was inaugurated, so people are like, look 259 00:15:06.600 --> 00:15:10.200 at Trump, what's he doing. He's caused stock markets to 260 00:15:10.240 --> 00:15:14.600 crash and crypto to crash. Well, he inherited the country 261 00:15:14.919 --> 00:15:19.159 essentially after about a two year bull run. Right, twenty 262 00:15:19.200 --> 00:15:22.720 three and twenty four were objectively amazing years for the 263 00:15:23.399 --> 00:15:27.039 majority of those months for stocks and crypto. So he's 264 00:15:27.080 --> 00:15:30.679 coming in to office when you've already got you know, 265 00:15:30.759 --> 00:15:34.759 the long term MVRV for MVRV for bitcoin excuse me, 266 00:15:34.799 --> 00:15:39.559 at plus thirty one percent. So he's he's inheriting the 267 00:15:39.600 --> 00:15:44.240 presidency of the United States when the average traders are 268 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:46.440 way up in the long term and way up in 269 00:15:46.480 --> 00:15:49.399 the short term more than they should be, Meaning there's 270 00:15:49.399 --> 00:15:53.200 supposed to be a mathematical retrace anyways, no matter who 271 00:15:53.279 --> 00:15:58.480 comes in as president, and I think gradually both due 272 00:15:58.480 --> 00:16:01.360 to just raw math and due to fears of how 273 00:16:01.440 --> 00:16:04.240 much these tariffs are going to impact the world for 274 00:16:04.320 --> 00:16:07.960 the indefinite future. It's been a combination of both that 275 00:16:08.120 --> 00:16:12.879 pushed crypto down quicker than it otherwise probably would have 276 00:16:12.919 --> 00:16:13.279 gone down. 277 00:16:13.320 --> 00:16:17.799 Anyways, what are you seeing on the stable coin side, 278 00:16:18.519 --> 00:16:21.399 you know, as far as tether and supply and exchanges. 279 00:16:21.799 --> 00:16:28.240 Yeah, so on dry powder for tether and USDC, they're 280 00:16:28.240 --> 00:16:31.159 both kind of moving down. Keep in mind, this is 281 00:16:31.200 --> 00:16:33.840 the top exchange addresses, So we're just looking at the 282 00:16:33.879 --> 00:16:37.120 top ten right now, which of course holds a significant 283 00:16:37.159 --> 00:16:40.679 percentage of all the stable coins on exchanges. But I 284 00:16:40.720 --> 00:16:45.000 can update this chart if you don't mind waiting for 285 00:16:45.879 --> 00:16:51.279 ten to fifteen seconds, and then I'll add supply and exchanges. 286 00:16:52.919 --> 00:16:53.120 Here. 287 00:16:54.480 --> 00:16:57.159 Take off these two for a moment, and then we'll 288 00:16:57.200 --> 00:17:04.440 do the same for USDC. Okay, So these are the 289 00:17:04.480 --> 00:17:08.680 new up to date overall ratios of Tether and usd 290 00:17:08.799 --> 00:17:12.160 coin on exchanges, and they're both going down pretty significantly. 291 00:17:13.640 --> 00:17:17.000 February third, you know, we saw the overall amount of 292 00:17:17.000 --> 00:17:20.359 Tether in terms of percentage of overall supply at about 293 00:17:20.400 --> 00:17:23.759 fifty six point one percent. Usd coin was at sixteen 294 00:17:23.799 --> 00:17:26.960 point four percent if I hold down shift to drag 295 00:17:27.000 --> 00:17:33.759 to the right here, So about four point four percent 296 00:17:34.000 --> 00:17:37.640 less Tether is now in exchanges of the overall supply, 297 00:17:38.000 --> 00:17:41.440 and about six and a half percent of usd coin 298 00:17:43.039 --> 00:17:48.039 has declined in terms of percentage of exchange. So the 299 00:17:48.079 --> 00:17:52.160 two top stable coins are seeing significantly less on exchanges 300 00:17:52.160 --> 00:17:58.640 at the moment, while Bitcoin actually looks continuously very low. 301 00:17:58.920 --> 00:18:00.640 We have had a little bit of an uptick since 302 00:18:00.680 --> 00:18:05.559 the tariffs really spoot traders but this is hardly a 303 00:18:05.680 --> 00:18:07.880 rise compared to how much we've fallen over the last 304 00:18:07.920 --> 00:18:09.519 six months. 305 00:18:09.559 --> 00:18:15.960 Interesting. Yeah, I mean, my my takeaway, and it may 306 00:18:16.039 --> 00:18:20.279 not be the full thesis on everything that's happening here, 307 00:18:20.319 --> 00:18:24.359 but it seems like overall a lot of people slowing 308 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:29.359 down here on accumulation. Maybe you know, whales who usually 309 00:18:29.440 --> 00:18:34.079 use tether stable coins to buy their coins on different exchanges, 310 00:18:34.799 --> 00:18:37.920 maybe slowing down here. Not as much minting because everybody's 311 00:18:38.279 --> 00:18:41.160 watching the macro uncertainty waiting for something to come to 312 00:18:41.200 --> 00:18:42.799 a resolution. Right. 313 00:18:42.839 --> 00:18:44.839 It's all kind of supply and demand, and if there's 314 00:18:45.039 --> 00:18:48.799 less demand for stable coins on exchanges, they're going to 315 00:18:48.839 --> 00:18:52.720 be tucked away for safe keeping until the demand picks up. 316 00:18:52.839 --> 00:18:55.440 So I think because we've seen such a decline and 317 00:18:57.480 --> 00:19:00.880 less and less enthusiasm for buying the dip as this 318 00:19:01.000 --> 00:19:04.839 three month retrace has gone on, it's natural for stable 319 00:19:04.920 --> 00:19:11.200 coins to not be as available on exchanges. They basically 320 00:19:11.279 --> 00:19:17.160 just hold a kind of a moving goalpost of stable 321 00:19:17.200 --> 00:19:22.000 coins to be available to traders, and when there's just 322 00:19:22.119 --> 00:19:24.599 less demand, they'll tuck them away somewhere else. 323 00:19:24.640 --> 00:19:28.119 And I think that's essentially all that's happening here. Interesting 324 00:19:28.920 --> 00:19:31.160 let's take a look at the top all coins. Maybe 325 00:19:31.200 --> 00:19:34.880 we can start with Etherorem. It may be the same 326 00:19:34.920 --> 00:19:37.519 story for all of them, but you know, there's any 327 00:19:37.559 --> 00:19:42.759 interesting statistics around each. We'll talk Etherorem XRPCE to Lono. 328 00:19:43.400 --> 00:19:46.039 Yeah, definitely. In fact, before we go to those same 329 00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:49.880 on chain metrics, we can also check out the positive 330 00:19:49.960 --> 00:19:53.160 versus negative sentiment for the top four non stable coins. 331 00:19:53.519 --> 00:19:57.640 And what really sticks out here Solana a couple weeks ago, 332 00:19:57.759 --> 00:20:01.640 before we really started to fall, they had this absurd 333 00:20:01.839 --> 00:20:07.160 level of positive commentary going on. I'm I'm ninety five 334 00:20:07.240 --> 00:20:10.880 percent sure that this was bot driven. So it's it's 335 00:20:10.960 --> 00:20:13.839 like this strange anomaly, and that's that's the problem with 336 00:20:15.319 --> 00:20:18.119 the current state of social media. Until they really start 337 00:20:18.160 --> 00:20:20.440 to clean things up, we're at the bit of the 338 00:20:21.000 --> 00:20:26.039 bit of mercy of like how these these different social 339 00:20:26.079 --> 00:20:31.000 media accounts, how authentic they are. So Solana had this weird, 340 00:20:31.039 --> 00:20:34.799 weird anomaly, they're still showing way more positive sentiment than 341 00:20:34.839 --> 00:20:39.160 the others, even though there's no clear reason why it's 342 00:20:39.359 --> 00:20:42.519 suddenly getting so much bullishness. I'm just going to remove 343 00:20:42.519 --> 00:20:44.480 it for the time being so we can focus on 344 00:20:44.519 --> 00:20:46.640 the other three. 345 00:20:45.880 --> 00:20:48.440 And by the way, just and some color that does 346 00:20:48.480 --> 00:20:52.440 look manipulating, because there was actually some negative news that 347 00:20:52.480 --> 00:20:56.279 came out the other day where the staking unlocks and 348 00:20:56.400 --> 00:20:57.920 whales Alana wheels were dumping. 349 00:20:59.000 --> 00:21:01.279 I heard about that, and there was a lot of 350 00:21:01.319 --> 00:21:04.839 talk about the network stability too, as maybe once or 351 00:21:04.880 --> 00:21:09.720 twice a month we get something potentially going wrong with 352 00:21:09.880 --> 00:21:13.480 Solana's network and it causing even if it's for like 353 00:21:13.519 --> 00:21:16.799 a minute, you know, if transactions aren't working or going 354 00:21:16.839 --> 00:21:19.799 through at the speed they normally do, it becomes a 355 00:21:19.839 --> 00:21:23.160 talking point. So the fact that we saw a positive 356 00:21:23.160 --> 00:21:26.720 sentiment just going nuts to levels we hadn't seen before 357 00:21:26.920 --> 00:21:31.160 was highly unusual, and I agree with you. But as 358 00:21:31.200 --> 00:21:35.519 far as Bitcoin, so it's sitting a little under average 359 00:21:35.599 --> 00:21:38.640 right now. There's a slight bearish bias, as there probably 360 00:21:38.680 --> 00:21:41.599 should be when you see you know, the top asset 361 00:21:41.640 --> 00:21:47.319 and crypto dropping to the extent it was. Ethereum is 362 00:21:47.480 --> 00:21:49.960 way down there as well. Ethereum's a little below where 363 00:21:49.960 --> 00:21:54.319 Bitcoin is only getting about one point one positive comment 364 00:21:55.079 --> 00:21:59.400 comments for every one a negative comment, So that's essentially 365 00:21:59.440 --> 00:22:03.119 like net neutral, which is unusual. Usually it's more like 366 00:22:03.119 --> 00:22:05.640 one and a half to one for each of the 367 00:22:05.680 --> 00:22:09.920 top assets, and then XRP is actually way way high, 368 00:22:10.359 --> 00:22:12.720 which is interesting to me. If I switched the price 369 00:22:12.759 --> 00:22:17.279 over really quick. It hasn't done anything too special, but 370 00:22:18.079 --> 00:22:20.160 you know, there might be some news I'm unaware of 371 00:22:20.559 --> 00:22:21.000 either way. 372 00:22:21.119 --> 00:22:24.079 This yeah, go ahead. There was actually news Ah shit, 373 00:22:24.160 --> 00:22:28.720 what was it? Yeah? Oh, today, I think the first 374 00:22:29.160 --> 00:22:33.200 XRP ETF goes live. It's a two x long ETF, 375 00:22:33.240 --> 00:22:35.759 but it also rippled it a massive acquisition for like 376 00:22:35.799 --> 00:22:38.519 one point twenty five billion. I just saw that news 377 00:22:38.519 --> 00:22:40.400 this morning, honestly and thought I was like, wait, whoa, 378 00:22:40.440 --> 00:22:42.480 this is huge. It's like the biggest acquisition in the 379 00:22:42.519 --> 00:22:46.359 crypto market or industry, you know, since its inception. So 380 00:22:46.440 --> 00:22:48.680 I think that might be driving some of it. 381 00:22:48.720 --> 00:22:54.319 What an interesting day to launch an ETF and announce 382 00:22:54.359 --> 00:22:57.960 an acquisition. It's probably getting fairly swept under the rug, 383 00:22:58.000 --> 00:23:01.279 except for the XRP community that's of course tracking this stuff. 384 00:23:02.000 --> 00:23:04.200 So that makes total sense because this is the highest 385 00:23:04.240 --> 00:23:10.359 positive point we've seen for XRP since November twenty eighth, 386 00:23:10.680 --> 00:23:14.519 almost a yeah, a little over a four month high, 387 00:23:14.559 --> 00:23:16.960 So there's a lot of bullishness there. I don't think 388 00:23:16.960 --> 00:23:21.000 that's necessarily going to push xrp's prices down. But the 389 00:23:21.079 --> 00:23:24.599 general rule of thumb, folks is when you see super 390 00:23:24.680 --> 00:23:28.200 high positive sentiment, it marks tops. When you see super 391 00:23:28.240 --> 00:23:31.799 low sentiment, it marks bottoms, because prices always go the 392 00:23:31.799 --> 00:23:34.400 opposite direction of the crowds expectations. 393 00:23:34.960 --> 00:23:39.960 Yeah. Absolutely, eight. How is it looking? Because I know 394 00:23:40.039 --> 00:23:43.200 eth is men. I'm an ETH holder, so I'm feeling 395 00:23:43.200 --> 00:23:45.160 the pain that you know. It's it's been rough and 396 00:23:45.240 --> 00:23:48.319 the charts and the eighth BETC chart is brutal. 397 00:23:48.799 --> 00:23:50.680 Yeah, you took the word out of my mouth. Rough 398 00:23:50.759 --> 00:23:54.440 is the best way to describe it. It's been by 399 00:23:54.519 --> 00:23:58.880 far the most disappointing top ten, top twenty non stable 400 00:23:58.880 --> 00:24:01.799 coin out there for about the last year, almost two 401 00:24:01.920 --> 00:24:07.160