Speaker 1: CFL Betting Bru Blueprint. This is week eight.
Speaker 2: Andrew and Bobby with you to break things down, talk
about the line move and talk about the current numbers,
and update you on some spots that we think will
be best to get on now or to wait until
later in the week. Of course, guys, before we jump
into the show, we want to remind you if you've
been enjoying the content, win or lose with us, please
hit the like button and comment below. Let us know
who you are betting in the CFL, and I'll tell
you what. Guys, first and foremost, when you start hearing
about NFL training camps and you start hearing about college
football betting lines, this is the time you make the
most money in the CFL. I know a lot of
us would love to make the most money possible in
the CFL when there's nothing else going on.
Speaker 1: But the fact is, right now.
Speaker 2: We're entering probably what I would describe as one of
the best periods to bet CFL out there in the
full entire season. Updated numbers for me minus zero point
seven units year to date on the season, it's either
been a really good season or good week or a
pretty bad week. We haven't really had that many average weeks,
so we're in bounce back mode. I had a big
play on Winnipeg, tried to fade Calgary that didn't go
too well.
Speaker 1: A couple other losses in there.
Speaker 2: Got the pct team total, but other than that, we're
in bounce back mode.
Speaker 1: Let's bring in Bobby.
Speaker 2: How are you, Bobby Good?
Speaker 3: I'm coming in the middle of nowhere here, So if
I bounce out, I'm just gonna kick to my phone
and rejoin. But just spend the afternoon of a deck
saw Alexander Graham Bell's museum there, developed the telephone, developed
the airplane. Everything people take for granted now, and I
feel like we're kind of similar as everybody started coming
take for granted that the Red Blacks are boneheads and
Trey Ford shouldn't be starting in the CFL.
Speaker 2: Somehow we're tying it Alexander Graham Bell and the Red Blacks.
Speaker 1: He love to see it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, look, I don't want to stay because
you know how I get when I'm pissed off and
I'm angry and I'm motivated for the next week.
Speaker 1: But you could say this, I mean, it was a
good week.
Speaker 2: People that were betting the obvious, like, hey, Calgary's covered
every time as an underdog, and they do it again.
Hamilton beat Ottawa last week and then they did it
again this week. I mean, those were two spots that
you know, you could probably look at it, especially the
one with Hamilton in Ottawa.
Speaker 1: But Drew Brown getting absolutely smacked once again. He got
I think his helmet knocked up.
Speaker 2: Not really a good look once again for the offensive
line of the Auto Red Blacks. So you hate to
see that. But hopefully he can be okay and get
healthy again. But when it comes down to it, we
definitely should have been just faiding the crap out of
this Red Blacks team all throughout this season. Bobby, let's
take a look at these odds here. We got to
use odds Logic. Guys, make sure you check out odds Logic.
You can go to oddslogic dot com slash am get
a good seven day free trial. But we proudly support
them here at wager Talk. Looking at the numbers here,
we've got minus five and a half open number. We're
calling an open number in Calgary. Move now to six
and a half. Pretty much across the board. Edmonton, Saskatchewan
opener nine and a half. Well, we saw some tens
now back to nine and a half, Winnipeg open minus
two and a half, now at three and a half,
mostly across the board, some threes are there, and Hamilton
BC steadily at minus three. Now here's guys, what I'm
gonna say is again, we would love to be able
to say that the early part of the CFL season
is where we can make the most money. And look,
I was on a seven and three run until last
this past weekend where it all it didn't go very well.
But this is a spot where I think that, you know,
you start making money because the numbers aren't going to
change as much.
Speaker 1: The numbers aren't going to move as much.
Speaker 2: People are actually concerned right now about NFL preseason lines
more than they are going to be concerned about lines
in you know, week eight of the CFL.
Speaker 1: That's just how it goes.
Speaker 2: So when I look at this here, I want to
talk about some of these numbers and some of these
kind of spots that we're going to see in the CFL. Now,
let's take a look at CFL ats records and take
a look at some of these updated numbers. Here, guys,
so right now. Calgary did it to me again. They
did it again. They covered once again as an underdog.
This Calgary team five n o ats as an underdog
five and one ATS overall, and they are five and
one on the season. Saskatchewan five and one record five
and one eight, Winnipeg three and two record three and
two ATS, BC three and four record three and four ATS.
Speaker 1: Same goes for Edmonton.
Speaker 2: Looking at Montreal four and two record three and three ATS,
Hamilton four and two record three and three ATS, Toronto
record one in five straight up two and four ATS,
and Ottawa one and six record two and five ATS.
Looking at some of the under over numbers the best
over team in the league, which is a bit shocking
because we know how great the offense or defense can
be for them, Winnipeg four and one over under on
the season, and looking at some of the other teams
that maybe are doing better as far as the unders, well,
Toronto two three and one, and I think if you
look at most books, you could say two and four,
so they might be actually one of the more under teams.
But we can tell you they've had one game that
was a big time over against Hamilton, but other than that,
they have seen quite a few unders due to the
lack of their offense. We are going to have a
very quick show this week. We got Bobby coming back
here in a second. We're going to give our opinions
and then we'll, you know, make sure we're tweeting some
stuff out later on in the week on our Twitter
handles as you guys can always find those as well.
But let's get Bobby back up here with us.
Speaker 1: And let's talk about some of these lines.
Speaker 2: So Bobby, you're back with us, let's not waste the
time here. Montreal and Calgary, what do you think about
that one?
Speaker 3: So that stam Peters game, like they did, laid a
pretty good beat down on him, and people are going
to say it's because of Zach Klaros getting injured, But
I think if Klaros stayed in that game, Calgary was
still going to run away with it, right, So Calgary
was the right side. We've been on Calgary plenty of
times and it was definitely the other experience for us,
at least for me last week, Like the was no
real chance, so I was sweating that three and a
half Winnipeg right from the start. So I just don't
want to write off MBT just yet. Like you said,
Alexander's out for six weeks. Confidence in Calgary's at an
all time high. But like if David Alexander was playing, Like,
wouldn't this line be like pretty close to a pick,
especially on a neutral. Maybe Calgary is one point better.
They have the worst, one of the worst home fields
in the CFL. Like, it's not the McMahon Stadium, it
was five six years ago. I just don't know if
it's that much of a drop off from Alexander to
MBT to warrants, like, or what's the line right now?
We're getting close to a touchdown? I think it was
six last time I checked. I think I'm just going
to wait for the right number and be on the
Alouettes here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, DraftKings is showing seven FanDuel six and a half,
Westgate six and a half, bet Online six and a half,
Penny six and a half, Circa six.
Speaker 1: And a half.
Speaker 2: Bobby, I gotta say I did a show, a full
show on my phone. I was at the in laws
cottage last week and didn't bring my laptop. Yeah, I'll
tell you what, you sound way better right now than
you did about five minutes ago. So we'll take that
all the time. Sometimes the phones can be just as good.
So here's the deal is that you know that a
big struggle that I have is like being pissed off
at a team and then like be like, you don't
want to be stubborn, right, Like I've made some money
on Calgary, but obviously I just lost a big one.
And for anybody that follows wager talk and you know
how it is, Bobby, the five percent plays mean a
lot to me. You know, you could have a one
in one day, but if I hit that five percent er,
it's huge, and that was a tough one to lose.
Speaker 1: And you know, but here's the funny thing.
Speaker 2: All you're hearing now, Oh Winnipeg, they're going in the
wrong direction, Winnipeg. Maybe this is the downfall of them.
You know, a little early to say that. But here's
one thing I'm going to say, even though Calgary has
one every game straight up that they were an underdog,
so they're undefeated ats. But also in those situations they've
always they've also won straight up. This is a hell
of a lot different than being plus three and a half,
plus four and a half, plus five and a half
plus seven and a half whatever they might win. Now
they're being asked to lay a number. And I know
we got a quick show here. We don't want to
spend too much time on each game. But this is
the thing, Bobby, is that I said to myself last week, Okay,
you know, if Calgi wins this game and VA puts
on a show, I'm gonna have to give some respect
to Calgary, right And I definitely have to with based
on how they played, especially in Winnipeg. But at the
same time, now they're not just being asked to win
this game. They're being asked to win, as you mentioned,
by a touchdown plus the extra point.
Speaker 1: That's not easy. I know Montreal hasn't.
Speaker 2: Looked great without Davis Alexander out there, but they're still
a pretty good football team.
Speaker 1: In the NFL.
Speaker 2: We look at look ahead numbers all the time. I mean,
to your point, what would the look ahead number be
in this one, like Montreal short, you know, road shock,
if it was Alexander or now we got you know, backup,
so maybe it would be a pick like is this
six and a half just extremely based on the number
that we've seen this season or the play we've seen
this season? Like, to me, I can only go one way,
and it's got to be the road dog here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, especially if it's creeped up to a touchdown. Like
I we were talking before and I said, if this
is at like five, I'm trying to talk my way
out of not taking the five. And I guess just
waiting for the number was my only excuse. So, like,
I like Calgary either, like I've got them as the
top team, but Montreal is still legitimate and and all
MBT has to do is be not terrible and they
should be able to hold it within a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so it should be a good one, guys.
Speaker 2: So we're going to look towards this number on Montreal
that has gone from five and a half to six
and a half. As mentioned DraftKings hanging a seven.
Speaker 1: Look.
Speaker 2: Last week was the week that we were like, okay,
let's see a Winnipeg can do off the bye. But
based on this number, this isn't a plus price anymore.
This is like, hey, this is the sports books, any
of the ones that really do care about CFL betting
saying okay, let's see how much all of you guys
really like Calgary, because you know a lot of people.
If you like Calgary, if you've made money on Calgary
this year, you're gonna probably.
Speaker 1: Be on them this week. So we'll see what happens
in that one.
Speaker 2: Again, this is another one that I like the dog here, Bobby,
and if I can get a ten, I like it
even that much more. But we have seen the numbers
circulate back to nine and a half the Elks. One
thing I saw which is kind of interesting is the
only game they've covered is the game they won.
Speaker 1: Is that? Were you here with the nine and a half?
Speaker 2: I mean, this is kind of the point spread range
that I'm only comfortable taking this Elks team in. Obviously,
I know what you're going to update us. Your thoughts
on the quarterback situation does worry me a bit. The
only time they've covered a point spread is that the
game that they won. But this time it's not only
like four and a half, five and a half, this
is nine and a half points. I'm interested once again
in backing the dog here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're getting we're getting into the Taylor Cornelius type numbers,
like the tens, the twelves, the thirteen's, And the interesting
thing that's developed this week is that they're they're splitting
reps at at quarterback in Edmonton. So, like I thought
Mark Killham, the new head coach in Edmonton, might have
been a condition of his employment that he has to
start trey Ford. But eventually, like you just got to
kind of think, like do it. Am I gonna have
a job if I keep starting in tray Ford? How
long are we going to let the better QB sit
on the bench? Right? So, this is the first time
that we've entered a week where trey Ford isn't taking
all of the first team snaps. There's plenty of coach speak.
If you listened to the Edmonton radio, they like, I
like to act all smart, saying, oh, don't know, I've
got a real plan here, and then on game day
they can't even figure out whether to tell their player
to run it out of the end zone or not. So, uh,
this is their chance to act smart right in when
they're sputting the wraps. Oh, well, we don't know who's starting.
We kind of have a good idea and we have
to go on that. And he said, wait for that.
The thing he said that was interesting. He said, everybody
who's the best at what they do will be starting,
and that's Cody Fajardo in terms of being a quarterback.
So I like Edmonton. I even like Edmonton at that
ten with Trey Ford, So this is almost a free role.
If it's Cody Fajardo. Edmonton always looks different against BC.
You need you need to kind of erase those from
your memory if you're going to handicap the Elks going forward.
And it's probably gonna be useless information now because it's
not going to be tray Ford playing next time they
play BC. So Edmonton's looking as bad as they as
bad as they possibly could coming into this. The sketch
ones still one of the better teams in the league.
But yeah, ten ten points, nine points, I'd like this
all the way down to like seven, seven, six and
a half if it's Cody Fajardo. So I think it's
free money right now. It's a free bet. If you
got trade Ford, then you've got an actual number. If
you got Cody Fajardo, then you're laughing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And you know, obviously Winnipeg proved to us last week.
Not every team's gonna look good off a bye, but
they were playing Calgary. However, you know, I think what's
gonna happen. Bobby is, We're probably gonna get both. I
think that even if Fajardo ends up being the guy,
they're going to use FOURD as a running back. We
see our guy Darsha always talking about it. Use this
guy for what he's good at. Use some of these guys.
I mean the fact they're not really drawing up schemes.
I've seen some Edmonton games this season where he ran
the ball like three or four times, and you know,
the first three quarters, it's like, dude, that's like your
one asset is your legs. And then two weeks ago
when when Fajardo came in through an absolute dart in
garbage time to the ends zone, I had the whole
fan base wondering, what the hell is this guy doing
on the bench for the whole season. So we'll see
what happens there. I my moderate and conservative take is
going to be there's a world where both those players
get used in a game. I think that could definitely happen.
I think that Ford could be like the Streveler for
the Blue Bombers, except for a Streveler is more so
bulky and strong and not fast as much like like
Trey Ford is. But like you said, getting the nine
and a half is a good number. With Ford, I'd say,
but this number might be the plight the place that
it is because first of all, they felt like they
had to hang a number. But we also know how
it is because if Fajardo goes in there, then this
number should be seven and a half or much lower.
So we're both looking at the dog here. Keep in
mind that Edmonton is getting up a ton of points,
so maybe if you do like Edmonton, maybe you just
want to look towards the team total as well. Maybe
a half bet team total, half bet to spread. This
is one of those ones where you got to think
that Edmonton's gonna look a little different in Saskatchewan. Big
win for them last week as well. Guys, Once again,
if you're with us here watching on x on YouTube,
especially on YouTube the wager Talk channel, subscribe to our
ever going channel here two hundred and five thousand subscribers.
I think close to that number two home six. Maybe
hit the like button if you're watching this. We had
one point five thousand viewers fifteen hundred of you guys
last week, and the unfortunate part is that was our
best one yet and it's probably my worst week of
the season, So we're in bounce back mode.
Speaker 1: For you guys.
Speaker 2: We got to have a good week for you. But
hit the like button and comment what you are betting.
Comment your thoughts so far on the season. Shout out
to Kevin here with us right now, using both would
be terrible dot dot, so it will probably happen. I
know you like that one, Bobby. I wouldn't be shocked
to see them use both quarterbacks. There any thoughts on
that comment? And then why don't you dive right into
Winnipeg in Toronto for us?
Speaker 3: Well, I think they should use both. They should use
them like a straveler, maybe a little more. But like
there's some sort of thing in the CFL where coaches
think having two quarterbacks is a good idea, And you
saw Callum do that a few weeks ago. Trey Ford
was actually playing decent and he was yanked for an
entire series. You had believe I Mitchell lose his job.
Believe I Mitchell lose his job? Was this the first time? Noe? Yeah,
this was the first time he lost his job In
the last two years. He ended up splitting with Matthew Schiltz.
So it always ends in disaster. It's a terrible idea,
but like these coaches just like to try anything and
think they look smart, and they really look ridiculous. So
tray Ford, there's a good use for him. He's a
talented athlete. He shouldn't be the main starting quarterback, especially
with Cody Fajardo on the bench. If he wasn't, then
maybe just there's no there no reason not to go
with trade Ford. But there's a great reason to go
with trey Ford. You can save your season with Cody.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: Well, we haven't talked totals yet, but a fifty to
one game, fifty four in the fifty one in the next,
and fifty five fifty one is a consensus total in
the Winnipeg and Toronto game. As I mentioned, Toronto had
that one game that flew over the total against Hamilton.
Other than that, they've kind of struggled to put points
on the board. So any game that's gone under for them, Bobby,
has been because of them, not as much because.
Speaker 1: Of their opponent.
Speaker 2: If you liked Winnipeg laying three and a half against Calgary,
well how do you like them laying three and a
half against the Argos?
Speaker 1: Is the big question.
Speaker 2: Of course, this time they're on the road and it's
almost like we're on Chad Kelly watch, because well, this guy,
I correct me if I'm wrong here, Bobby, I believe
he has two Great Cup rings. He's barely played in
the Great Cup, he has barely played in the CFL,
but yet he's got a pretty good resume as a
Toronto Argonaut member. When will we see Chad Kelly? What's
the Chad Kelly update right now?
Speaker 3: Well, of course as Toronto, So the latest update comes
from the national reporters because they're the only people that
even care about the Argonauts. Dave Naylor said this was
the week they'd be deciding on him, and then today
far And said it's back to Nick Arbuckle taking all
the reps. So I thought we'd be talking about Winnipeg's
quarterback or no, I thought we'd be talking about about
the Argonauts. I didn't think we'd be talking about Winnipeg's
quarterback because I thought for sure it would be Chris Treveler.
Zach Claros took a huge hit, didn't come back in
the game, and I don't know if there's a reason
to rush him back to face Toronto here, but it
seems like he was taking the first team rep. So
I gave out Toronto last night thinking given Nick Arbuckle,
I like that number at three for the Argos, but
I thought they'd be facing Chris Treveler. So now I'm
kind of in a sticky situation. I'm probably gonna maneuver
my way out of it and take a little bit
of a loss because if it's Klaros, this number should
be closer to a touchdown, so especially if it's against
Nick Garbuckle. So I got it just doesn't make sense
to me. They've been so careful with them every time
he's been injured. Chris Streveler somebody that Mike o'she isoks
incredibly loyal to, so it was very surprising to see that.
And then this Chad Kelly thing is is just getting
kind of weird. Now. You thought he'd be out for
six games coming back after a bye. He's not. He's
in Buffalo now he's I don't know, the guy broke
his leg right, so maybe we shouldn't be so surprised.
But they I don't know if it's time to panic
yet for the Argonauts because they have a team called
Ottawa of red blocks in their division and they can
back door their way into any playoff spot they want.
But yeah, definitely interesting. I like Toronto thinking it was Traveler,
but if it's Kolaros, I think this number is gonna
jump up. I think this was a streveler line they
opened with, and it'll jump up closer to a touchdown.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's the thing. Like you mentioned, they've
been so safe with him. But I guess maybe they've
been safe with him throughout the years because they've been dominant.
Maybe they're like, man, we need this guy, we need
him here to uh to get the wins.
Speaker 1: So we'll see.
Speaker 2: Let's see what Kevin has for us here with this one.
Are we thinking this line is a setup for a
move back below three later this week? Toronto should have
one as ten point road dogs last week. Winnipeg has
looked sort of average lately. Edmonton held them close till
the fourth quarter and they got blasted twice by Calgary.
Are we thinking this line has set up moved back below.
Speaker 1: Three later this week?
Speaker 2: I think it's interesting, Bobbly, because when you look at
this number right now, you know which which Toronto team
are you gonna get. I mean, this is the thing.
I feel like they've played kind of a mixed bag
of teams. Like they played the Alouettes twice, they've played
the Stamps, they played the Riders. So like, if we're
being honest, the only two shit teams the Argos have
played are the Red Blacks and the tie Cats. And
the Tiecats don't even look that shitty right now. Yeah,
it's a nine man league, but I feel like this
Argo's team maybe doesn't look as shitty as they've looked,
you know what I mean, Like if you take away
the fifty one to thirty eight game, Like even look
at the Riders game, it was thirty nine thirty two.
Speaker 1: You know, their their.
Speaker 2: Loss against the against the Stamps is twenty nine to nineteen.
Speaker 1: Obviously, the the.
Speaker 2: Alouettes and Argos game just you know, twenty six twenty five.
Speaker 1: People were shocked.
Speaker 2: I mean, Montreal outscored them twelve nothing in the fourth quarter.
But at the end of the day, that's kind of
one of those ones where it's like, do you look
at it as a good game for Toronto or do
you look at it as something that they like get
away from them? What do you think about that? Comment
there from Kevin.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, well, Toronto was running away with that game.
I thought we had a rocking chair five to one
underdog paying out last weekend. Then I checked the score
and Montreal's come back and won the game down twenty
five to seven in the end of the third. So
like this, the defense is definitely playing better. It just
depends if Nick Garbuckle is going to be the game
manager or its cliche, but he doesn't seem to be
as volatile as he was in previous seasons. So there's
a lot to like about Toronto. Still, Like I don't know,
like you got your kind of hoping if you got Klaraos,
you got a Bombers team that's upset, and the Bombers
team when they're upset, they tend to play pretty well.
So I don't I don't know if it's it's definitely
not going to come back, if Kolaros is going to
continue taking the reps.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that.
Speaker 2: I think that Winnipeg can get to twenty eight, is
what I'm going to say here. I think Toronto's defense
has look okay, but I also think this game could
have some points for it for both teams.
Speaker 1: I'm going to focus it on Winnipeg. Calgary looked good.
Speaker 2: Calgary brought it every possession, But I think Winnipeg will
have some swag coming into this one, playing a bit
of a bit of a different style opponent. We'll see
what they're running here in this game, but I feel
like they can mark the field put some points up.
Over twenty seven and half minus one oh eight is
the bet at fan duels, So that's what we'll rock
with so far.
Speaker 1: We'll see what happens.
Speaker 2: The fact that the Argos lost that game, I don't
think they can get confidence from it. I feel like
if they won the game, I mean, that's just like
who cares about the cover teams and the CFL aren't
caring about covering point spreads.
Speaker 1: We care about it. But they lost the game.
Speaker 2: You know, they proved that their defense did not help
them out in the fourth quarter. And you know, if anything,
that gives me confidence for a team total.
Speaker 1: Right, if we're gonna bet team.
Speaker 2: Totals, what are the Argos proved to us that, Hey,
maybe they're gonna cover some point spreads, but maybe they're
gonna still give up points late in the game. So
all right, last one here, This is the one I
probably have the least on here. Your thoughts, Bobby on
the last game and concerning your BC Lions minus three
consensus number against the hamblon tired Cats. They're playing at
home here, This BC team.
Speaker 3: Yeah, BC, like they were never in that game against
Saskatchewan and it was clear they they shouldn't have been
favored in that game. I think they went were three
point well I got them. I got the Riders at three,
So they were favored because they look at it good
against Edmonton and then Hamilton had that same opportunity against Ottawa.
Right like you play the Red Blacks, you get the
show vote a bit. All Hamilton did was put up
twenty points and getting the ball spotted at their own
forty a bunch of times from these stupid field goals. Right,
So Hamilton had their chance to play well, like they
almost lost the crumb. So I think this line is
pretty much where it's at. If it goes any higher,
maybe I'll grab the tight Cats. But no action for
me here. I think BC should be a short favorite,
especially at home. It's a long trip for all these
Eastern teams to come out and they usually don't play
very well.
Speaker 2: Yeah, We mentioned last week that it was three straight
road games for BC and then the last one was
their first game back at home, kind of an angle
I usually fade in the NHL. Didn't really think about
it last week. Got lucky as hell. I mean, as
much as it was a bad week for me, you
could have been a disaster, I got lucky at that
backdoor team total, Bobby. So I can't really be bitching
too much because that was like the best win I'm
gonna have all year. Uh.
Speaker 1: And it's kind of funny. It's it reminds you of golf.
Speaker 2: It's like you usually hit your best putt on the
day when you're putting for like double bode, and you
can't hit that way. That's kind of how I felt
with that win. It was like the day after I
lose the five percenter, I end up, you know, getting
this back door three percent team total.
Speaker 1: So I'll take it.
Speaker 2: But yeah, you know, they lose that one last week
and maybe they'll bounce back this week. And you know,
Hamilton's looked great. They've looked great. They're putting points on
the board. Back to back wins against Ottawa. Sometimes we
say that when a team plays against the bad team
and looks fantastic. Let's not really, you know, write too
much into that, although they have beat some good teams
as well. Maybe after two good performances against Ottawa, Hamilton
goes ahead and puts up a stinker on the road
in BC.
Speaker 1: So we'll see what happens.
Speaker 2: Uh, guys, makes you fallo Bobby at Mississuri, Jack myself
at McGuinness picks before you get out of here he
do as a favor, smash that like button like. The
Elks usually get smashed every week. Hopefully not this week though,
because we're probably gonna be on them plus nine and
a half. Have a good week, guys, best of luck,
and we'll both see you next time.
Speaker 1: Right here on the betting blueprint