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Speaker 1: You know Warren Buffett, you know he has three hundred

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and forty seven billion dollars in cash. It's almost thirty

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percent of his portfolio. Prior to the selloff in two

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and two thousand and two he had about twenty percent.

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Before two thousand and seven and eight nine he had

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about twenty five percent. So his cash position is the

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highest it's ever been as a percent of his portfolio.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network where you

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get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else to

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thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork dot

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com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival

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Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Letz and with us

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today is Jim Welsh macrotides dot com. And where you

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out there who are watching and listening. There's a link

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in the show notes that will give you Jim's latest

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to August missive and.

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Speaker 4: Will will and be enlightening.

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Speaker 3: You know, I've gone through it, and you know, like

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it's a weird thing like if you don't like the

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numbers that the system's putting out, rather than changing the system,

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you just fire the person who's responsible for the numbers. Now, look,

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those numbers are useless from month to month. They're kind

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of useless because they're always being revised up or down,

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and they're deceptive. Right, The employment numbers are completely deceptive

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because if they wanted to the government really wanted to

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give the true numbers, they've got the information in real

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time in terms of withholding taxes and taxes being paid

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from salaries, and then they could make adjustments for number

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of self employed people and number of people in the

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so called gig economy. Those people are supposed to be

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paying quarterly self employment tax. So they can revamp this

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system to make it much more accurate, and yet.

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Speaker 4: They choose not to.

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Speaker 1: What's your take on this, Well, you're touching in all

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key points. What they don't do. The BLS Bureau Labor statistics,

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they hadn't gotten to the twenty first century yet really,

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because the survey they sent out to businesses is done

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by mail, and so the net result carry is they're

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surveying about twenty five percent of all jobs.

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Speaker 4: If you're will that are right.

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Speaker 1: Back in time for any given month, so they're only

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getting about fifteen percent of the picture. So automatic you

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have a built in problem where you're going to invite

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revisions as opposed to using technology and getting the information

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all the information very quickly. In addition, the birth death

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model has been I think the biggest problem area. Back

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in two thousand, the BLS said, you know what, we

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can't keep track of all the companies that are starting

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up and a lot of small companies that are disappearing,

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and so we're going to come up with an estimate

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of how many new companies are being formed each month,

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how many are going away? And in recent years, in

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twenty fifteen, I believe the number is the birth death

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model created twenty eight percent.

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Speaker 4: Of all the jobs.

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Speaker 1: Last year it was forty nine percent. So you have

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this one input, Carrie that I think is kind of,

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you know, going crazy and creating a bunch of jobs

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that don't exist. As the BLS gets subsequent surveys back

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in and quarterly information, they then revise the numbers down marketly.

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In addition to the muffing numbers that get revised, so

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you one hundred percent right, There are ways that the

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BLS can do this to make these data points more accurate,

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more timely, because the bottom line is when a number

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gets announced, well, you know, you created two hundred thousand

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jobs or lost two hundred thousand jobs, financial markets move

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on that data point. Sixty days later, six months later,

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they get revised. Oh no, it wasn't two hundred thousand

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plus or minus, it was only eighty four. So it's

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integral that they get this stuff tied up. And my

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guess is there will be an honest effort to do

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that in the next you know, year or two.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Well, it seems to me they're about as efficient as

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the FAA. You know, if you put the as in

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charge of air traffic, we would have estimated airplanes landing

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airports and we wouldn't know what the heck was going

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on there. So maybe we should be grateful that a

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person wasn't running the FAA.

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Speaker 1: They're only doing the labor market.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they could do a lot less damage there than

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managing metal in the sky. But yes, seriously, this is

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a big problem because it's just like GDP. GDP includes debt,

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so it's not really measuring true economic growth, and then

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GDP is subject to error because the inflation rate really

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is impossible to actually calculate under our presence system.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Now, basically you get nominal GDP, which is how

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much the economy grew minus the inflation rate to get

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the GDP number that they're reporting. So obviously, if you

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report that inflation is less, that's going to boost GDP growth.

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And conversely, if inflation's bigger, it subtracts from GDP growth.

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So the other issue, and a lot of people I

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don't think understand it, including a lot of people in

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the business, is that inventories and trade are huge swing

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factors within that report every month. So in the first

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part of this year, we saw an enormous amount of

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companies buy stuff ahead of the tariffs. Well, because that

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production came from overseas, the Census Bureau subtracted i think

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close to five percent or maybe it was four percent

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from GDP because it's gross domestic production, so they subtract imports.

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In the second quarter, imports dropped significantly and added more

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than two percent to GDP. And inventories are the same way.

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You know, a big boost inventories, oh, we're going to

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add that to GDP. And so you had this year

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especially Carrie. These swing factors are huge in terms of

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these numbers, and there's not much you can do about that.

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The methodology, to me is logical. We're measuring gross domestic product.

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At the same time, a lot of people don't fully

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comprehend that. I don't know that the media does a

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good job of educating people to be aware, especially in

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this environment that we've been in that to get the

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true measure of GDP or growth, look at final sales.

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To me, that's the number that gives you a better

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indication of what's happening as opposed to the GDP number.

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Speaker 3: Hey, well, I have an idea, And instead of celebrating

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the job's numbers and the GDP numbers when they're released,

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how about we don't even bother covering those numbers and

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we only cover the revisions.

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Speaker 4: Why not?

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Speaker 1: You know, no bottom line does have to have to

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be improved. Now, President Trump fired the BLSA BLS commissioner

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because of these revisions, and he said it was all political.

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But as I pointed out in my letter that in

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August of last year, the BLS announced a big negative revision.

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Over eight hundred thousand jobs disappeared, and that was about

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two months before the election. So if you're going to

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play fair, is fair. The reality is the BLS did

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something two months before the election that made Biden look

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his economy look a little less strong. So I think

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the charge that is totally driven by politics and so forth.

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You know, I don't buy it. The need to increase

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better data, that's a legitimate criticism and needs to be addressed.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, here's what the chat GPT said about that.

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Ignore the first print, watch the revisions, and the benchmark

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July seventy three k is within the statistical fog. Household

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employment fell, participation slipped, and the last big benchmark took

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eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs off the books. The

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birthday death plug likely overestimated. At the turn netnet, the

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real job market is flat to slightly negative right now,

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stall speed, not expansion. And that brings us to something.

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I don't want to call it disturbing, because truth is

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truth and truth doesn't care whether you're disturbed or not.

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But you've got a secular bear market warning out there.

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You're convinced most investors are unprepared buying hold will be

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buy and lose. And in your special report, the theme

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is the coming secular bear market.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, basically, you know what I'm saying is, if you

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look at from the thirty thousand foot level, you can

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see sentiment is wildly bullish. You have rampant speculation. This

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is hard to believe, Kerrie, but sixty percent of all

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the options traded on individual stocks and indices are on

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the instruments that expire in twenty four hours.

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Speaker 3: That's nuts. Can only pros can make money that way,

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and only the people writing them are making money.

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Speaker 4: Why is it in the short term?

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Speaker 1: Obviously, right now, on the short term, that strategy has

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been working because if you're buying calls on Nvidia and

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other AI related type stocks and so forth, you know,

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the tailwind has been pretty strong. My point, though, is

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that when someone buys a call option ten to fifteen

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percent out of the money the dealer sells them that call.

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Now the dealer is theoretically short that that stock and

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have to take positions to hedge it. And so to

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a certain extent, what's happening with this? Sixty million shares

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or sixty million options have been trading a day, and

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sixty percent of them are for twenty four hours or less.

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So and it says you had the tail wagging the dog.

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But from the bigger picture standpoint, these are all symptoms

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of a lot of speculation. From the valuation standpoint. You know,

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Warren Buffett, you know he has three hundred and forty

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seven billion dollars in cash. It's almost thirty percent of

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his portfolio. Prior to the selloff in two thousand and

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two thousand and two, he had about twenty percent. Before

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two thousand and seven and eight and nine he had

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about twenty five percent. So his cash position is the

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highest it's ever been as a percent of his portfolio.

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And it's not a timing tool, but it's another one

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of these symptoms carried that, oh, is the market at

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a place where you want to be buy and holding

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long term? And so my point and that special report

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for those who request it, and the information will be

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on your website. You know, looks at prior secular bear

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markets like nineteen sixty six to nineteen eighty two, two

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thousand to two thousand and nine, where the SMP goes

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through corrections of thirty forty fifty percent and its stretched

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over a decade in the case of sixty six eighty two,

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sixteen years. So I think we're nearing that point where

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we're likely to see one of these extended bear markets,

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and most investors are oblivious to it. Understand, that's the

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way markets work. At tops, everyone knows all the good

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reasons why the market's in great shape and is just

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going to keep going on up forever. And that's when

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you need to pay more attention and be aware that

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at you know there's danger at your door.

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Speaker 4: If you think life is you know, the market's easy street.

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We're not there yet.

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Speaker 1: Things like the Advanced Decline Line continue to make higher

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highs historically, that's a good guide post. In feber I

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noted that the AD line was not making higher highs

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relative to the high it had made in November of

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last year, which suggested we were set up for a

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pretty good correction. So I'm waiting for things like that

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to more pinpoint the timing of when I think we're

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going to see a much more significant correction and you

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know it lasting longer. We're not there yet, but it's

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always better to be prepared and be on the lookout.

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And that's all I'm trying to do is just say, folks,

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there are a lot of reasons why caution needs to

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be exercised at this stage of the game.

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Speaker 3: There's one indicator that I really like a lot. There's

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been numerous indicators that predict recessions at every corner, every turn.

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Occupancy rates in Las Vegas. Because Las Vegas, they should

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call it the discretionary income parting, right grabaganza, Yeah, the

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Lost Vegas right, yeah, yeah, yeah, you're you know, outside

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of compulsive gamblers, which are a big problem, let's face it,

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but Vegas isn't really built upon compulsive gamblers. I would

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say they're the profit and the casual visitors pay the bills.

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The problem is they're down double digits.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 3: There are reasons for it, like it's become a ripoff,

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extracted enterprise that doesn't provide value for the money that

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you're paying, like thirty dollars bottles of water. And I

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love it there, but I like the people watching in

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the food I don't and the shows. But it's become

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prohibitive to the point where you know, like the fast

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food joints are mobbed and the really great restaurants are

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fairly empty. So the fact that it's declining is really

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an alarm bell, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: Well again, it's you know, if you look at the

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delinquencies on auto loans and credit cards, they're reaching like

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ten and fifteen year highs. So one of the things

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I've had is that the bifurcation in the economy. You

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have the bottom fifty percent of wage runners who have

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been getting squeezed by inflation. And some of those are

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the people you're talking about who would maybe in the

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past taking trip out to Vegas, but they look at

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the prices and they can't afford to do that. As

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a counterbalance though this, you know, over the fourth of

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July weekend, I think you had three million people going

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through TSA checkpoints. Something similar like that is going to

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happen this weekend, and so you have this bifurcation. And

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carry with those who have assets like stock portfolios on

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their own home, they're feeling a pretty significant wealth effect

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and have and that's one of the things that I

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think is continuing in helping them to continue to keep spending.

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But if you're a renter and your rent has gone

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up forty percent but your rages haven't, you're really under

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the gun. And so there's crack showing up. And what

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you're citing in terms of Vegas is one of those cracks.

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As I said, delinquencies on credit cards, auto loans, they're

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up ten to fifteen year highs. So underneath the surface

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there's weakness building. The number of corporate bankruptcies has moved

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up pretty aggressively this year, so the signs are there.

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So to me, this plays into what we just talked

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about in terms of a secular bear market, where what's

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feeding the beast is asset values. Well, if we see

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a significant client in the equity market that lasts more

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than two months, home prices coming down. I got to

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report a couple months ago laying the groundwork of why

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I think home prices are going to drop fifteen to

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thirty percent over the next five years. So if you

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see those hits to wealth, then those who have been

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spending will become much more cautious. And so again, these

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are the storm clouds out there in the future. In

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the near term, you know, the market's technically in decent shape.

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So I'm not saying, oh my god, this guy's about

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to fall. I'm just saying that right now things are okay,

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but there are some storm clouds out there that are

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suggesting that the underpinnings of the economy may not be

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quite as strong and rosy as a lot of people

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like to think.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and you know, visitor volume in Vegas, just getting

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back to that theme, is down the eleven percent year

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over year in June and a year to date in

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the I think as of July was down seven point

279
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three percent, So you know, that's definitely an issue. Air traffic.

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The only good thing to come in the air traffic

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segment now is that you no longer have to take

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your shoes off when you're going through TSA.

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Speaker 4: I mean that's a big that's a mile, So that

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act is.

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Speaker 1: Right versus twenty five years ago, where you know, it

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was very very much different. So, yeah, not having to

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take your shoes off, thank you very much. Yeah, especially

288
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you have high shoes and you're going to try to

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make a plane pretty soon.

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Speaker 3: They won't be confiscating your toothpaste and suntan lotion and

291
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my contact lens solution which costs twenty bucks a.

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Speaker 4: Bottle for two bottles.

293
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Speaker 3: And denver Tsa thought that this was a threat, a

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global threat to air transport, certainly in America, but perhaps

295
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around the world. Because it's liquid, man, I could I

296
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could be mixing it into all sorts of dastardly things.

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Speaker 1: Right, Well, they took one look at you and they said,

298
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we better check his bag really carefully.

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Speaker 3: So you know, oh, man like why this is crazy systems,

300
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But it's just indicative of a dysfunctional government that no

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longer can accomplish its basic functions or has great difficulty

302
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and expense in even attempting.

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Speaker 4: To do that.

304
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Speaker 3: So looking at what we talked about here, you know, buffets, cash, hoard, inflation,

305
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and the fed secular bear market, a gold look at

306
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gold and silver. Now's we got to talk about silver, copper,

307
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potash just added or will be added shortly to the

308
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government's official critical mineral list. This means a boom in

309
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my opinion for the mining sector because because it's an

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emergency and it's critical now, a lot of the environmental

311
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reviews and the legal reviews that would take place ordinarily

312
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are going to be basically cost.

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Speaker 1: Right or expedited, you know, significantly faster than what they

314
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have been in the past or whatever have been obviously

315
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in the last administration. A couple of things that will

316
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point out the chart pattern of gold. For instance, my

317
00:20:29,039 --> 00:20:31,720
take has been since we hit that high in April,

318
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you know, the markets correct.

319
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Speaker 4: Either two ways.

320
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Speaker 1: Either you get a decent size decline and a lot

321
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of people are bush, or you get a sideways chop

322
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where you just wear people out. And gold has been

323
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doing the sideways chop. I think getting above thirty four

324
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to oh three, which it did today, is the signal

325
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that gold is on its way to a new all

326
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time high. So my take has been the last few months, hey,

327
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we're going through this correction. When it's over, we're going

328
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about thirty four ninety six, My guess is thirty six

329
00:21:05,240 --> 00:21:08,920
hundred and thirty seven hundred, And there's a lot of

330
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,559
things coming into it, Carrie, you know, perception about the

331
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FED and all likely the hood the FED will cut

332
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the fund rate at the September meeting. But you know,

333
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inflation is at about three percent, so that.

334
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Speaker 4: Data is not good.

335
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Speaker 1: Look stated you know, President Trump, I'm sorry dated inflation.

336
00:21:30,039 --> 00:21:35,200
Yeah well yeah, So I think those are the things

337
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:40,240
that psychologically feed into you know, and is a tailwind

338
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for gold and silver, and so I think in the

339
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near term to me, my analysis of the gold chart

340
00:21:48,359 --> 00:21:52,279
suggests it's about to pop to the upside. We're going

341
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to see silver obviously follow and probably as it has

342
00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,640
been doing the last couple of months or so. I'll

343
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perform gold to the upside. So near term, I think

344
00:22:03,039 --> 00:22:07,480
finally we're getting indications that gold is ready finally to

345
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make a move to the upside, and to it, you know,

346
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a new all time high.

347
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Speaker 3: Forty dollars silver right now as we speak, looking at

348
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kit Goes ticker, which I don't really appreciate. But for

349
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:22,119
spot thirty nine two, we just broke thirty nine. That

350
00:22:22,319 --> 00:22:26,640
is a huge technical spot. It's bounced back and forth

351
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over it. But once we hit forty forty is like

352
00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,319
the better circle the wagons, because those short positions there

353
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:40,119
are in real jeopardy and you can't just.

354
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Speaker 4: At some point, you can't just up up your.

355
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Speaker 3: Your price limit, you know, you just can't keep getting

356
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run over, like resetting your options prices.

357
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Speaker 1: I'm old enough to remember the spring of nineteen eighty

358
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when the Hunt Brothers attempted to corner silver. It traded

359
00:23:00,759 --> 00:23:03,279
up fifty maybe fifty one.

360
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Speaker 3: Fifty might have tra it traded over fifty for a day,

361
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but I think it closed fifty.

362
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Speaker 1: Yeah, and then it dropped the ten bucks very quickly.

363
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I mean, they basically screwed the Hunt Brothers as a

364
00:23:14,839 --> 00:23:17,119
story there. We don't need to bother to cover it.

365
00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,279
But my point is, you know, you get above something

366
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like a forty, you have to start beginning to look

367
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at well, that fifty from forty plus years ago is

368
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out there and is a test of that coming. And

369
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I would say there's a good shot that is going

370
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to make a run at that fifty dollars mark at

371
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some point in time, and maybe it could happen very

372
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quickly given the setup that we have. There's another inflation

373
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report that comes out tomorrow. I think the PCE it's

374
00:23:48,160 --> 00:23:53,079
not going to be good news the next CPI. The

375
00:23:53,079 --> 00:23:56,839
PPI report that came out for July was ugly, So

376
00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,319
again my point is, you have a backdrop that inflation

377
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,799
is all already at three percent and the tariffs are

378
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:06,519
going to bleed through and cause more inflation on the

379
00:24:06,559 --> 00:24:10,279
good side. The thing that I find interesting is that

380
00:24:10,319 --> 00:24:14,559
in his Jackson Whole speech, Chair Paul acknowledged the good

381
00:24:14,680 --> 00:24:19,359
side inflation but didn't reference services and both the ISM

382
00:24:19,559 --> 00:24:24,400
service indicator was up to sixty nine percent. Historically, there's

383
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:29,559
a nice correlation between moves in that index and the CPI.

384
00:24:30,319 --> 00:24:33,640
So my point, Carrie is that the inflation news is

385
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:38,599
going to get worse in the near term, and I

386
00:24:38,680 --> 00:24:41,400
can't imagine that that won't be a tailwind for the metals.

387
00:24:41,759 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 3: Okay, and I am in complete agreement with you. There

388
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:49,079
one interesting note going back to the eighties.

389
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Speaker 4: You know, the.

390
00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: Last time silver hit fifty, it's the only commodity to

391
00:24:55,519 --> 00:25:01,079
have not established a new high in over forty years. Yeah,

392
00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:06,200
and that that alone makes you think. And then you

393
00:25:06,240 --> 00:25:09,440
look at the price action. It's a coiled spring, it's

394
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,240
a jack in the box, and when it pops, especially now,

395
00:25:13,599 --> 00:25:17,079
the fact that Uncle Sam has said it's a vital

396
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:22,440
critical mineral or metal, if you will, could.

397
00:25:22,319 --> 00:25:23,759
Speaker 4: Just give it the impetus.

398
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:28,559
Speaker 3: And I don't think the government's going to nationalize silver mines,

399
00:25:28,839 --> 00:25:33,480
but I think they will do exclusive supply contracts with

400
00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,079
the big producers. There's only a few of them that

401
00:25:36,079 --> 00:25:39,400
they have to bother with, and the US and Canada

402
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,799
and those companies can't exactly say no, but what they

403
00:25:44,839 --> 00:25:49,880
can do is buy some futures to protect their margins

404
00:25:50,279 --> 00:25:53,519
because the price of silver will once that gets out gent,

405
00:25:53,759 --> 00:25:55,039
it's going to explode.

406
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:55,839
Speaker 4: Yeah.

407
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:57,599
Speaker 1: Well, and the other thing the point you made is

408
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,400
that silver hasn't made a new high where probably every

409
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:04,559
other commodity on the planet has in the last forty years.

410
00:26:05,759 --> 00:26:08,119
You know, start to attract money. You know, you look

411
00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:10,440
at gold, you say, wow, this made a big move already,

412
00:26:10,759 --> 00:26:13,000
and I look at silver has kind of and now

413
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,000
it looks like it's coming to life. So that alone

414
00:26:15,079 --> 00:26:18,599
starts to attract some money for the catch up trade.

415
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:21,079
Now I'm not talking to ketchup that you put on

416
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:21,680
your hot dog.

417
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, the catch up trade, well, we have wars over ketchup,

418
00:26:25,559 --> 00:26:28,960
so I not have trades over it, you know, just

419
00:26:29,079 --> 00:26:32,319
looking at it. The buffet warning, I mean that kind

420
00:26:32,319 --> 00:26:35,279
of says it all. I'm surprised, but I'm not surprised

421
00:26:35,319 --> 00:26:39,319
that Buffett isn't buying silver. The last time he tried

422
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:46,079
that little trick, Martin Armstrong exposed him and exposed the system,

423
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:50,400
and you know it took ten years to get over that,

424
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:57,279
even though nobody remembers it now. So so metals, you

425
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,799
got any feelings about bitcoin crypto? I mean I saw

426
00:27:00,799 --> 00:27:03,160
it hit one hundred and nine thousand the other day,

427
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,400
back up to one eighteen now, which tells me another

428
00:27:07,480 --> 00:27:14,359
coiled spring, another another potential short squeeze. Position because they're

429
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:20,440
gobbling up a bitcoin like they can't get enough these institutions.

430
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 1: And you know, the allocation has been you know, very

431
00:27:22,839 --> 00:27:29,160
very small. The Trump administration has kind of ordained bitcoin

432
00:27:29,279 --> 00:27:32,680
or legitimize it, and so that is helping as well.

433
00:27:34,119 --> 00:27:38,880
What I have observed, though, Carrie, is between the dollar, Bitcoin,

434
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,200
and gold, what has often happened is one of the

435
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:44,920
three will be running while the other two are either

436
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,240
going sideways or down. And if we're right that in

437
00:27:48,279 --> 00:27:50,400
the near term, the metals are about to have the

438
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:55,119
light shine on them. Maybe Bitcoin, you know, it's head

439
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:58,119
heck of a move, Maybe it goes into a sideways

440
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:00,880
chop for a period of time. In terms of the dollar,

441
00:28:02,000 --> 00:28:05,039
I think the dollar is nearing a very important low,

442
00:28:05,799 --> 00:28:08,079
but near term it looks like it's going to go

443
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:10,880
down again and take out the low from a couple

444
00:28:10,960 --> 00:28:14,119
months ago. So that will be another tailwind for gold.

445
00:28:14,759 --> 00:28:17,720
But if I'm right, because positioning on the dollar is

446
00:28:17,920 --> 00:28:23,119
very negative, a lot of shorts sentiments very negative. I've

447
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,319
seen more articles in the last couple of months. Well,

448
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,200
maybe the dollar status as a reserve currency will get

449
00:28:28,279 --> 00:28:31,519
challenged and so forth goes to me, are all symptoms

450
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:35,960
from a contrary opinion perspective that all right, it's a

451
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:38,599
little late to be really negative the dollar. It's already

452
00:28:38,599 --> 00:28:43,720
down eleven percent this year. From a price pattern standpoint,

453
00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:47,039
I think the dollar will be completing the correction that

454
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:50,440
started after a peaked in October of twenty twenty two

455
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:53,640
at one hundred and fourteen to seventy five. So my

456
00:28:53,799 --> 00:28:56,440
point is, I think there's a window for the medals

457
00:28:56,519 --> 00:28:59,559
to have a pretty good run here the dollar goes

458
00:28:59,599 --> 00:29:02,240
to a low or low. But if I'm right and

459
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:06,920
the dollar makes an fairly significant low, then the metals

460
00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,759
will probably have a fairly good sized correction. And the

461
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:12,880
rally in gold that I'm talking about, I've been saying

462
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,200
we've got a wave five rally coming here to new highs.

463
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:19,480
So my point is, if all these pieces fall into

464
00:29:19,559 --> 00:29:22,880
place near term, the metals have a great run. The

465
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,559
dollar makes a low over the next one to three months,

466
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,400
and if that unfolds, then that'll bring the backdrop of

467
00:29:29,759 --> 00:29:33,160
why there'll be maybe six months to nine months from

468
00:29:33,160 --> 00:29:36,680
now the beginnings of a significant correction in the metals,

469
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,079
So you know, near terms, some of these things are coming.

470
00:29:40,079 --> 00:29:41,960
In the other thing, I'm going to point out is

471
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:45,400
treasure yields. I believe the long term trend in treasure

472
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,680
yields is up, and so we near trim, we might

473
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,119
see a little bit more relief. The tenure might get

474
00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:55,000
down to about four oh seven, but after that, I

475
00:29:55,039 --> 00:29:59,920
think it's going above five. A lot of supply continues

476
00:30:00,079 --> 00:30:03,200
to come. President Trump has not really narrowed the deficit,

477
00:30:04,359 --> 00:30:08,039
and if we see the economy slowing meaningfully at any

478
00:30:08,079 --> 00:30:11,039
point in time in the next couple of years, the

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deficit is going to jump to three trillion, that's a

480
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lot of paper. At the same time, the Japanese thirty

481
00:30:17,079 --> 00:30:20,200
year yield has made a new all time high. Germany

482
00:30:20,359 --> 00:30:22,839
Great Britain yields are going up. So we're in an

483
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:27,920
environment carry where these other governments in Europe especially, they're

484
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:32,119
increasing defense spending from under two to five percent, so

485
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:37,039
that the world is going to be competing for investment

486
00:30:37,119 --> 00:30:41,359
dollars as governments sell bonds, using out and tipically, if

487
00:30:41,400 --> 00:30:44,720
you don't have enough demand, you got to raise rates,

488
00:30:44,839 --> 00:30:48,480
rates go up to attract buyers. And I think that's

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00:30:48,519 --> 00:30:51,960
the world we're going to be in over the next

490
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:53,039
handful of years.

491
00:30:53,799 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 4: And so.

492
00:30:55,599 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 1: You know, that's another reason why I think the equity

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00:30:59,039 --> 00:31:03,920
market is going to experience a secular bear market. I

494
00:31:04,039 --> 00:31:07,599
believe a secular bear market has already begun in the

495
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,359
bond market. Now, when I say secular in the bond market,

496
00:31:10,359 --> 00:31:13,599
we're talking thirty five plus years. So this isn't something

497
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:16,559
oh yeah, four years now, it's going to be over now.

498
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:19,400
Three years from now will be where it becomes more obvious.

499
00:31:19,759 --> 00:31:22,480
And on the tenure, I think the tenure goes to

500
00:31:22,559 --> 00:31:23,640
seven and a half percent.

501
00:31:23,799 --> 00:31:24,839
Speaker 4: All right, reason.

502
00:31:24,559 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 1: Why it got over fifteen and a half in eighty

503
00:31:28,279 --> 00:31:31,799
one down to fifty five basis points in twenty twenty.

504
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,279
The fifty percent retlacement of that move is about seven

505
00:31:35,279 --> 00:31:38,359
and a half. So I'm not even talking about, oh

506
00:31:38,359 --> 00:31:40,240
my god, treasure yields are going to take out there

507
00:31:40,359 --> 00:31:42,640
nineteen eighty one highs. I'm just saying they're going to

508
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,079
retrace fifty percent. And as you noted, with all the

509
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,759
debt that we have out there, anything meaning for move

510
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,799
like that in treasure yields is going to be really

511
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,039
challenging for both the government and the economy.

512
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:02,079
Speaker 3: All right, Jim, that was exhaustive and I really appreciate it.

513
00:32:02,839 --> 00:32:07,880
Anybody interested macrotides dot com. The link is in the

514
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,759
show notes so you can download the latest edition where

515
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,920
all of this is discussed and a lot more. If

516
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:18,400
you got a question for Jim myself, shoot me an email,

517
00:32:18,799 --> 00:32:22,920
klatcarriets dot com. What do you think are we headed

518
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,920
for a secular bear market? Our interest rates going higher?

519
00:32:27,000 --> 00:32:29,559
Are precious metals prices going higher?

520
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,200
Speaker 4: Why don't you put it in the.

521
00:32:32,839 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 3: Q and a section on YouTube if you're watching it there,

522
00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,319
or shoot me an email let me know your thoughts.

523
00:32:40,599 --> 00:32:45,680
Obviously it's perception, but there's also reality behind that perception.

524
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,920
That's what you need to be thinking about. Jim always

525
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:50,640
a pleasure. Thanks for coming on.

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00:32:51,119 --> 00:32:54,279
Speaker 1: My pleasure as well. Carrie take West, stay well.

527
00:32:54,319 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Letz's Financial Survival Network, your

528
00:32:58,559 --> 00:33:02,359
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to

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00:33:02,519 --> 00:33:08,440
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than

530
00:33:08,519 --> 00:33:08,759
ever

