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<v Speaker 1>Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of Eyes on Geopolitics.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm here with Nick mulroy, Jason Lyons, and I'm Dmitri

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<v Speaker 1>con Tacos. Happy Easter to everybody who celebrates a lot

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<v Speaker 1>cooking as usual, world falling apart at the scenes. It

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<v Speaker 1>seems like, let's kick off with the Iran negotiations. We're

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<v Speaker 1>shooting this on Saturday at eleven am, and they just

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<v Speaker 1>wrapped up maybe an hour an hour and a half ago,

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<v Speaker 1>and instantly on Iranian state TV that said that the

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<v Speaker 1>talks were constructive. It was happening in Rome. There was

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<v Speaker 1>some confusion last week about like is it happening again?

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<v Speaker 1>Is it in Rome or is it happening in uh

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<v Speaker 1>oman h. As long as they're happening, I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a good, good thing. I mean, you have seen over

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<v Speaker 1>the last week or so since like the it's come

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<v Speaker 1>out where like they're talking about a Jack poet number

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<v Speaker 1>two point zero, like that's what I see a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of people talking about it as that it's just crazy,

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<v Speaker 1>like we shouldn't do this and stuff. And I get it.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of my ran hawks are I randhawks, and they're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna do what they need to do. But Mick, I

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<v Speaker 1>wanted to ask you because I'm sure you've been in

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<v Speaker 1>like meetings like this, or at least like seeing this

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<v Speaker 1>go down, like how these talks go. Because they're saying

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<v Speaker 1>that there's two the two parties are in separate rooms,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's a mediator running between them both and stuff

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<v Speaker 1>like that, and it seems to me like very odd,

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<v Speaker 1>like these guys just can't sit in a room together,

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<v Speaker 1>you know what I mean, Like it just seems like

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<v Speaker 1>a weird buffer at least.

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<v Speaker 2>Anyway, Yes, I can see how that would be the

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<v Speaker 2>case looking at it, and I think it really stems

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<v Speaker 2>from when the US assassinated cost some s the money

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<v Speaker 2>right in Baghdad. The I told her said that they

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<v Speaker 2>would never sit down with the Americans again, So that's

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<v Speaker 2>probably a factor in this, got it, I would say,

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<v Speaker 2>although it makes sense, I guess in the beginning stages

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<v Speaker 2>of this negotiation to have the Omani's going back and forth.

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<v Speaker 2>And this is in the Oman embassy in Rome, and

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<v Speaker 2>Oman has traditionally played this mediator role between the United

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<v Speaker 2>States and Iran. But if they really want to get

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<v Speaker 2>into the weeds of this is a very complicated, very

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<v Speaker 2>technical type of negotiation. They're going to have to not

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<v Speaker 2>only be face to face, but they're going to have

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<v Speaker 2>to bring in experts as well. They can't just I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think I have some guy running back and forth

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<v Speaker 2>talking about, you know, how many central futures are going

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<v Speaker 2>to allow, or you know, what's the device that's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be on the Iraq with the ar Ak heavy

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<v Speaker 2>water treatment plant. I mean, there's all sorts of and

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's important you to go back to the

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<v Speaker 2>twenty fifteen so people understand what that was and then

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<v Speaker 2>we can see how this is shaping up to either

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<v Speaker 2>be a two point zero version, be an improvement, or

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<v Speaker 2>essentially going back into the same agreement. But so that

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<v Speaker 2>was a P five plus one, so US UK, France, Russia, China, Germany.

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<v Speaker 2>In the agreement, basically it capped uranium enrichment at three

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<v Speaker 2>point six something sixty seven, I think, so far less

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<v Speaker 2>than it was now. Where right now we're at sixty.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean the Uranians are at sixty and that's easy

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<v Speaker 2>easier to get to obviously ninety apparently exponentially easier to

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<v Speaker 2>get to ninety, which is weapons grade. The twenty fifteen

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<v Speaker 2>agreement capped how many centerfuges they could have where they

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<v Speaker 2>could have those henterfuges, which was that non tons, so

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<v Speaker 2>that when it came to the IAEA inspecting they anywhere

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<v Speaker 2>to go, they had to send out the spent fuel

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<v Speaker 2>from you know, civilian energy to I think it was Russia.

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<v Speaker 2>So they didn't have it around the water treatment plant

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<v Speaker 2>or not treatment, but the heavy water plant at Iraq

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<v Speaker 2>had this device on it, so they couldn't make plutonium,

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<v Speaker 2>which is another material you can use to make a

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear bomb. It had a lot of it, so it's

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<v Speaker 2>very technical, very there's other there was other oh snapback saying,

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<v Speaker 2>for example, so if Iran violated the twenty fifteen that

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<v Speaker 2>sanctions would be automatic that Russia and China couln't veto.

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<v Speaker 2>There was a specific part of the twenty fifteen. So

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<v Speaker 2>that is kind of the framework, if you will. We

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<v Speaker 2>elected to get out of it twenty eighteen. Now we're

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<v Speaker 2>looking to get back into some version of it. Hopefully

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<v Speaker 2>it is improved. But the criticism back in twenty eighteen

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<v Speaker 2>was it didn't address proxy forces, which Iran apparently is

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<v Speaker 2>not even talking about now, so it looks like it

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<v Speaker 2>won't again. And I think to a certain extent, people

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<v Speaker 2>were concerned that it wasn't transparent enough. So I hope

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<v Speaker 2>we get a better agreement. But quite frankly, even if

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<v Speaker 2>we end up back in the similar agreement, it won't

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<v Speaker 2>be bad for the US national security interest in the

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<v Speaker 2>region because it'll prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

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<v Speaker 2>So I hope that's the case. I think it's headed

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<v Speaker 2>that way, although Iran has put at least in reports,

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<v Speaker 2>put out specifics like they won't dismantle their nuclear anything

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<v Speaker 2>they've done so far, which is unacceptable. It's way above

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<v Speaker 2>where it was in twenty fifteen, So hopefully the US

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't accept that they have to dismantle it back. Everything

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<v Speaker 2>should go at least back down to twenty fifteen. Everything

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<v Speaker 2>in place, then there's one quick step from being able

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<v Speaker 2>to be a nuclear weapon. And I think the US

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<v Speaker 2>in this area of foreign policy is on the right track.

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<v Speaker 2>We're using the threat of legitimate military options as a

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<v Speaker 2>pushing point for them, and it looks like we're headed

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<v Speaker 2>toward an agreement that would be beneficial. But last point

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<v Speaker 2>i'll turn over adjacent to your point, Israel is not

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<v Speaker 2>going to like it. They just did. They didn't like

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty fifteen, they pushed hard get out of twenty eighteen.

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<v Speaker 2>I'd get it. I am very concerned about Israel's security

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<v Speaker 2>and pro Israeli, but ultimately the concern is if we

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<v Speaker 2>do the military option, it will be a continuous thing,

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<v Speaker 2>so we'll be essentially at war militarily, and Roan has

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<v Speaker 2>options to retaliate which will not be good to include

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<v Speaker 2>shutting down the straits of overmoveth, attacking partners in the area,

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<v Speaker 2>going you know, grey zone, killing diplomats. I mean, there's

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<v Speaker 2>issues that we have to at least acknowledge. And again

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not against the military option. I think it's a

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<v Speaker 2>viable option, but it's not just to pull the trigger

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<v Speaker 2>and this thing's over. It could trigger much broader conflict

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<v Speaker 2>and that's something we have to take into account, including Israel.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I agree. I mean, there's not much for me

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<v Speaker 3>to add to it. The only thing I would add,

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<v Speaker 3>and you touched on it, is I'm not one of

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<v Speaker 3>those bomba back into the Stone Age so there's nothing left.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm also not one of those let him have

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<v Speaker 3>whatever they want. We have a nuclear you know, we

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<v Speaker 3>have nuclear weapons. One of those people I don't believe

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<v Speaker 3>that they should have it, and I hope they don't

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<v Speaker 3>get it. But I also don't believe that we should

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<v Speaker 3>completely dismantle their program. If when I say program, what

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<v Speaker 3>I'm saying is their civilian program to be able to

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<v Speaker 3>generate energy, because there are people are suffering. And even

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<v Speaker 3>I believe, if I heard it correctly, President Trump during

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<v Speaker 3>a ceremony for doctor Oz, I don't even know what

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<v Speaker 3>the hell he was doing for him, but I feel

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<v Speaker 3>weird even saying doctor Oz, but for him said he

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<v Speaker 3>mentioned I ran, and he said, I want them to thrive.

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<v Speaker 3>I want them to do well. So I'm hoping that

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<v Speaker 3>that includes leaving the apparatus in place for them to

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<v Speaker 3>be able to safely produce electricity for their people, but

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<v Speaker 3>take away dismantle the ability for them and the mechanism

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<v Speaker 3>for them to have a weapons grade material. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>we'll see. And as far as Israel's concerned, I wholeheartedly agree.

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<v Speaker 3>I think I would assume that they're going to give

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<v Speaker 3>us a Hey, your guys are pushing it, and we're

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<v Speaker 3>going to do this on our own. But I don't

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<v Speaker 3>put it past them just doing it. And like you said,

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<v Speaker 3>I think if that happens, it's going to be a

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<v Speaker 3>continuous thing because one strike, especially without verification that it

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<v Speaker 3>took out the intended targets, is not going to be enough.

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<v Speaker 3>So and and there's also, like you said, we could

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<v Speaker 3>actually bda that we took out the you know, the

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<v Speaker 3>intended targets, but like you said, they have other tools

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<v Speaker 3>in the toolbox. You know, they could go grade zone

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<v Speaker 3>and they can do other things. So you know, hopefully

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<v Speaker 3>it won't get to that point.

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<v Speaker 2>Good point. The other issue is if Israel does take

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<v Speaker 2>a strike, then the negotiations will probably be could put

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<v Speaker 2>because the way the Iranians will view it is US

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<v Speaker 2>and Israel are essentially one, so they'll view it as

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<v Speaker 2>a US trying to get disagreement. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 2>given that you can not to strike, Yeah, I think

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<v Speaker 2>you're right. They might do it without our approval. That'd

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<v Speaker 2>be a big step for them. But ultimately I think

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<v Speaker 2>the goal should be preventing Israel from I mean, excuse me,

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<v Speaker 2>Aron from getting a newclear weapon and if they do

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<v Speaker 2>comply with the with and I think the Secretary of

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<v Speaker 2>Rubio and Mike Walts are right on this. They have

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<v Speaker 2>to be like hardline, especially going into the negotiations and

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<v Speaker 2>then it gives them some wiggle room to come back

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<v Speaker 2>closer to the middle and hopefully it's hopefully it's a

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<v Speaker 2>better agreement than twenty fifteen, but quite frankly, if it's

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<v Speaker 2>the same, we'd still be in a better place. And

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<v Speaker 2>to your point, Jay, they the Iranian people will benefit, right,

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<v Speaker 2>So the sanctions will come off, and they are very innovative,

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<v Speaker 2>very educated society. I think they'll do really well in

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<v Speaker 2>the global economy. The only thing that's hindering them is

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<v Speaker 2>is the regime because of the sanctions, and they're you know,

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<v Speaker 2>seemingly analyst desire to destabilize a region of a region

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<v Speaker 2>of which they could prosper in. If they would just

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<v Speaker 2>you know, stop that and let the Iranian people compete

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<v Speaker 2>on a fair playing field, I think they'll do very well.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, I think it's good that like, yeah, we're willing,

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<v Speaker 1>like we're saying we're willing to hit Iran for now.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you gotta do that to bring them to

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<v Speaker 1>the negotiation table.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>The wild card, like you mentioned, is Israel. Also, there's

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<v Speaker 1>nobody else involved in these negotiations, right, Like the last

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<v Speaker 1>one was a multilateral kind of deal. This one's pretty

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<v Speaker 1>pretty bilateral and like our proxy, for lack of a

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<v Speaker 1>better term, Israel, which is not our proxy. But you

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<v Speaker 1>know what I'm saying, can literally destroy it with one

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<v Speaker 1>with one go of it, right, and if Israel did

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<v Speaker 1>do that unilaterally, they're probably not destroying it. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we couldn't word is We're not going to be able

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<v Speaker 1>to destroy it ourselves. They'll be able to bring it

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<v Speaker 1>back in three to six months.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>We've spoken about this, so I don't know where it

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<v Speaker 1>goes besides making a deal of some kind. It's funny though,

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<v Speaker 1>because like we you know, the whole Trump agenda early

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<v Speaker 1>on was how the first agreement was bs and we're

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<v Speaker 1>getting out of it, and like we're back here in

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<v Speaker 1>the same place where it's probably gonna look, if we're lucky,

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<v Speaker 1>probably gonna look like the same exact agreement or like

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<v Speaker 1>very similar wild same place, same region, Houthi's. We've been

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<v Speaker 1>bombing the Wothi's for like what seems like an eternity.

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<v Speaker 1>It's been over thirty days. They're still obviously capable. They

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<v Speaker 1>shot down another m Q nine drone, fifth since March

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<v Speaker 1>fifteenth and twentieth since October twenty twenty three, which is

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<v Speaker 1>kind of a wild that's a lot. It seems like

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<v Speaker 1>a lot. They obviously seem to still be capable after

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<v Speaker 1>thirty plus days of US continuously bombing them. What needs

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<v Speaker 1>to happen? Is it just gonna be an ongoing thing? Like,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't what happens now?

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<v Speaker 2>Mick, Yeah, so yeah, this I agreed with the need

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<v Speaker 2>to escalate. I'll start there. I also think it's fair

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<v Speaker 2>to say that you gotta be realistic about what you

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<v Speaker 2>can actually do from the air, right. Heir's a major

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<v Speaker 2>component in any conflict. It has been for many decades,

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<v Speaker 2>but it's one of those continuously debated, although I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know why that it can't essentially win a war without

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<v Speaker 2>any kind of ground component. So again, I think hats

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<v Speaker 2>off to all the servicemen and women that are out

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<v Speaker 2>there carrying this out. It was the right move to escalate,

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<v Speaker 2>but it is not having the desired effect, at least

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<v Speaker 2>completely the desired effect, which is removing the Huthi's capacity

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<v Speaker 2>to attack commercial vessels and military, our military assets and

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<v Speaker 2>our partner countries if they chose to do so. They'll

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<v Speaker 2>never stop the desire, But the only thing we can

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<v Speaker 2>do is keep them from getting the weapons and basically

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<v Speaker 2>just dismantling them like the Israelis did to Hesbla. But

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<v Speaker 2>they also used the ground component, right, so they send

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<v Speaker 2>in Israeli troops. So then the question becomes what's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be the ground component. And I don't think anybody

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<v Speaker 2>has a desire politically to send you know, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>the Marines or confessional army forces in on the ground

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<v Speaker 2>to be that ground component, because we're going to fight

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<v Speaker 2>people who are heavily entrenched in their territory in the mountains,

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<v Speaker 2>and we all know where that's going to go. Even

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<v Speaker 2>though we're we are the most effective military in the world,

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<v Speaker 2>we will lose a lot of soldiers of Marines. So

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think that's even in the cards, thank goodness.

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<v Speaker 2>But there is a sizable Yemeny capability that we've worked

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<v Speaker 2>with before. There is a legitimate government of Yemen that

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<v Speaker 2>is not, of course, the Huthi's once ur lah it is.

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<v Speaker 2>It is a recognized by the UN, the US. They're

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<v Speaker 2>they're headquartered out of Aden. There has been a plan

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<v Speaker 2>for their forces to take who data going all the

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<v Speaker 2>way back to twenty fifteen. We're the ones that kind

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<v Speaker 2>of pushed them out to do it. We were concerned

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<v Speaker 2>about kind of the humanitarian issition. You rightfully concerned. But

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<v Speaker 2>essentially if the coalition forces took WHO data, they would

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<v Speaker 2>cut off so and on right and that's where the

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<v Speaker 2>Houthis are. So there could be a combination where we

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<v Speaker 2>have you know, soft forces from both the military and

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<v Speaker 2>the agency working with this partner force in conjunction with

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<v Speaker 2>of course intel and air and it would be it

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<v Speaker 2>would make them very effective, and I think they could

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<v Speaker 2>actually take the port and that would change the tide.

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<v Speaker 2>It would cut off the Hoothis. And on the humanitarian front,

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<v Speaker 2>the World Food Program just cut off aid going to

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<v Speaker 2>the Hoothy controlled areas because all the age is being

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<v Speaker 2>taken by the Hoothis for their fighters, so it's not

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<v Speaker 2>even going to the people. So that kind of took

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<v Speaker 2>away that one component of the WHO data operation. So

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<v Speaker 2>I don't know exactly what they're looking at, but that's

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<v Speaker 2>what's in the media, and I think it's very doable

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<v Speaker 2>and it would it would have a big impact on it.

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<v Speaker 4>Talk to you for a moment about how you can

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<v Speaker 4>It is patreon dot com slash the Teamhouse, and for

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<v Speaker 4>five dollars a month you can get access to all

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<v Speaker 4>Jason Lyons mcmulroy that one, you will also get all

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<v Speaker 4>of those episodes ad free, and you support the channel

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<v Speaker 4>and the show, and we really appreciate it. The Patreon

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<v Speaker 4>members are literally what has helped this company, this small

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<v Speaker 4>business survive, especially during our early years, and you are

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<v Speaker 4>what continues to help this thing going even as we

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<v Speaker 4>navigate the turbulent world of YouTube advertising.

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<v Speaker 1>So we really appreciate all of you guys.

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<v Speaker 4>There's going to be a link down in the description

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<v Speaker 4>to that Patreon, and there is also going to be

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<v Speaker 4>a link to our new merch shop, so if you

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<v Speaker 4>guys want to go and get some Teamhouse merchandise, we

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<v Speaker 4>got stickers and we also have patches, and I should

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<v Speaker 4>mention if you sign up for Patreon at ten dollars

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<v Speaker 4>a month, we will mail you this patch as well,

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<v Speaker 4>so we really appreciate that. But they're also for sale.

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<v Speaker 4>On the merch shop and additionally they got t shirts

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<v Speaker 4>and support the show. We really appreciate it, guys.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, agreed from that.

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<v Speaker 3>I was thinking about as you were talking about air

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<v Speaker 3>can't do it all From the time that I was

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<v Speaker 3>a baby grunt at School of Infantry down at La Zune.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, we were always taught, hey, it's about you guys.

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<v Speaker 3>Everything else is supporting arms. You know, you support the

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<v Speaker 3>war fighters, so you can bomb all you want. And

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<v Speaker 3>I think we prove that in in Gulf War one

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<v Speaker 3>that you know, you can have a one hundred day

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<v Speaker 3>air campaign all you want, you know, your little the

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<v Speaker 3>Highway of Death all that stuff, but until you put

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<v Speaker 3>boots on the ground to hold that, it's kind of

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<v Speaker 3>a moot point. So I agree. But I also I

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<v Speaker 3>also think too on the far end of that, if

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<v Speaker 3>you cut off the supply from uh Iran, which I

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<v Speaker 3>don't think is coming anytime soon, when that well dries up,

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<v Speaker 3>that might have an effect, you know, a positive effect

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<v Speaker 3>as well. So I know we it's not probably not

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<v Speaker 3>in the cards for the negotiations, but at some point

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<v Speaker 3>I think that should be addressed.

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<v Speaker 2>Good point. Hopefully it's some kind of sidebar to this.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, they won't Iron won't put anything like that

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<v Speaker 2>into an agreement because they view them as their allies. Right,

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<v Speaker 2>They'll they'll say, well, why don't you cut off support

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<v Speaker 2>to Israel? Then? But I agree with you, Jason, it

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<v Speaker 2>could be a side thing. It's like, we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>have this agreement, but we're also going to see weapons

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<v Speaker 2>flow stop from or on to the Hoothy's and Yemen,

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<v Speaker 2>and we and our intel will know that, or or

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<v Speaker 2>you don't even have to have intel if there's a

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<v Speaker 2>web Ranian weapon that's getting shot at you know, the USS,

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<v Speaker 2>Carl Vincent, there you go. So I hopefully they do

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<v Speaker 2>include that as kind of subrows or you know, maybe

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<v Speaker 2>an untalked about portion of that agreement. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, So where Saudi Arabian all this, because Saudi Arabia

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<v Speaker 1>for a long time is going at the Hoothy's and

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<v Speaker 1>stuff like that. I know they've had a ceasefire and

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<v Speaker 1>stuff like that. Where do they do they come in?

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<v Speaker 1>What intelligence wise? I mean, clearly we're probably going to

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<v Speaker 1>be flying stuff out of there, but so.

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<v Speaker 2>They have excellent intelligence and you're right when I was

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<v Speaker 2>referring to the twenty fifteen discussion on WHO data, it

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<v Speaker 2>was a Saudi led coalition that was the air component

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<v Speaker 2>of the effort against the hoo'sies. Yeah, so we just

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<v Speaker 2>replaced them, but it was Saudi Arabia UAE was on

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<v Speaker 2>the ground. They have really effective special operation forces and

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<v Speaker 2>they're probably the ones that would be fully embedded with

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<v Speaker 2>perhaps I don't know, but certainly was at the time

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<v Speaker 2>the Emen forces that would take CRE data. So I

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<v Speaker 2>think I think they will be involved, certainly on the

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<v Speaker 2>intel side and uh and they have a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>you know capacity there, especially UAE, So I think it

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<v Speaker 2>would be a combined effort against the Houthis. But it's

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<v Speaker 2>much needed and it's it's past time they have I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>think about it. Every shot that they take at a

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<v Speaker 2>commercial vessel is the International Terrorist Act Terrorism Act, right.

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<v Speaker 2>These are civilian, unarmed commercial vessels that have nothing to

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<v Speaker 2>do with nothing when it comes to you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>war and GOZ, which of course the Houthis were doing

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<v Speaker 2>this before the war and Goz even started, So they're

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<v Speaker 2>just using it as a as a rally and cry now,

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<v Speaker 2>but it was done far. It's time for them not

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<v Speaker 2>to be able to take the world hostage in essentially

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<v Speaker 2>target commercial vessels and international waterways, and everybody should be

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<v Speaker 2>for This shouldn't just be a US thing. This should

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<v Speaker 2>be like where's China this The energy goes of the

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<v Speaker 2>world comes out of this area and mostly a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of it goes to China. We don't even need it, right,

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<v Speaker 2>so yeah, we should get a lot more support. If

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<v Speaker 2>not military support, it should be political support to do

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<v Speaker 2>or do it.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, is there any talk like from US talking

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<v Speaker 1>to China about like, hey, you guys want to help

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<v Speaker 1>here or as like that doesn't work. We can't talk

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<v Speaker 1>to China because they're the enemy when it comes down to.

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<v Speaker 2>Talk to them. But right now, you know, we're in

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<v Speaker 2>a trade war with them over the pages, uh, And

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<v Speaker 2>I know we're going to get to the topic. But

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<v Speaker 2>now there's Chinese soldiers showing up on the battlefield in Ukraine.

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<v Speaker 2>So I mean, we think we can split this group,

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<v Speaker 2>but we have not proven that to be the case,

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<v Speaker 2>and every step that we see they come closer together.

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<v Speaker 2>Whether it's you know what I'm talking about, of course

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<v Speaker 2>it is China Russia or Iran, North Korea. They're becoming

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<v Speaker 2>more intertwined, and their relationships seem to be more and

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<v Speaker 2>obviously are more important to them than any kind of

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<v Speaker 2>dayton with the West, especially when the West is separated

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<v Speaker 2>like we are now, you know, talking about share Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>O, God, why don't I never feel better about these conversations,

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<v Speaker 1>guys Jesus. So moving to Ukraine just happened just now

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<v Speaker 1>as well? Putin put out a thing where there's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>be an Eastern truce, I think for I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>what it was thirty six hours from the nineteenth, that's

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<v Speaker 1>seven to the twenty first, and then Zelensi came out

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<v Speaker 1>maybe forty or so minutes later, saying that the Russians

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<v Speaker 1>are still targeting areas in Kursk and the Belagrad region.

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<v Speaker 1>So who knows what's gonna happen with this truce. There

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<v Speaker 1>have been a number of like some offensives that the

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<v Speaker 1>Russians have been taken in the last few days that

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<v Speaker 1>have failed. Maybe that's the move, like to replenish their

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<v Speaker 1>their lines or whatever. Also in terms of like talking

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire and some kind of like stop orn't like stop

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<v Speaker 1>to the fighting. The US came out a couple of

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<v Speaker 1>days ago UH saying that they were possibly okay with

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<v Speaker 1>acknowledging CRIMEA as part of Russia, and UH, help help me,

401
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<v Speaker 1>help me figure this out. When you negotiate in public

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<v Speaker 1>by just giving the other side more and more shit,

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't that make I mean, I'm not a business guy,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean I've owned businesses. But doesn't that make your

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<v Speaker 1>position of negotiation weaker?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes? Especially yes, absolutely, especially with one of the parties

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<v Speaker 2>not being an honest broker when it comes to negotiations

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<v Speaker 2>at all. I think it's clear that Russia is not

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<v Speaker 2>interested in a ceasefire. Last month March in Saudi Arabia,

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<v Speaker 2>the US offered a ceasefire thirty days Ukraine accepted. Russia

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<v Speaker 2>did not. Russia continued not only to attack Ukraine, but

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<v Speaker 2>attack civilian infrastructure and civilians in Ukraine. They are not

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<v Speaker 2>accepting this because they do not see what's in it

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<v Speaker 2>for them. Because the US hasn't put more pressure on

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<v Speaker 2>Russia to get to that point, we could have secondary sanctions,

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<v Speaker 2>which means sanctions against China and India for buying Russian oil.

417
00:24:41.200 --> 00:24:44.759
<v Speaker 2>That's how they feed their war machine. We could increase

418
00:24:44.920 --> 00:24:49.519
<v Speaker 2>our support for Ukraine, so that Russia sees no realistic

419
00:24:50.279 --> 00:24:54.240
<v Speaker 2>in state coming to fruition because the support to Ukraine

420
00:24:54.359 --> 00:24:57.680
<v Speaker 2>keeps growing, not subsiding. If we don't do that, Russia

421
00:24:57.759 --> 00:25:00.839
<v Speaker 2>is just going to keep nodding, winking, take the compliments

422
00:25:01.920 --> 00:25:05.400
<v Speaker 2>and continuing their war. And if they're successful in Ukraine,

423
00:25:05.759 --> 00:25:08.680
<v Speaker 2>the chances of them going into another country, particularly European

424
00:25:08.680 --> 00:25:12.720
<v Speaker 2>country that is not NATO goes way up because you know,

425
00:25:13.079 --> 00:25:16.079
<v Speaker 2>one of the old Russian adages is going back to

426
00:25:16.079 --> 00:25:20.039
<v Speaker 2>the Soviet times, when you proceed with bayonets, if you

427
00:25:20.119 --> 00:25:23.640
<v Speaker 2>strike steel withdraw, if you strike mush, as they call it,

428
00:25:24.000 --> 00:25:27.759
<v Speaker 2>you proceed, And that's what they're seeing mush. So if

429
00:25:27.799 --> 00:25:32.440
<v Speaker 2>we're not going to increase our capacity to arm and

430
00:25:32.480 --> 00:25:40.200
<v Speaker 2>supply Ukraine, and apparently we rejected them purchasing patriots, patriots

431
00:25:40.240 --> 00:25:44.240
<v Speaker 2>are a defensive weapon, like think about that that is

432
00:25:44.279 --> 00:25:46.839
<v Speaker 2>only used to defend yourself against missiles that are flying

433
00:25:46.880 --> 00:25:50.599
<v Speaker 2>at your cities. So it might be and I think

434
00:25:51.400 --> 00:25:54.200
<v Speaker 2>the US should stay involved. Obviously, I think we should

435
00:25:54.400 --> 00:25:56.279
<v Speaker 2>increase our support. But if the US isn't going to

436
00:25:56.319 --> 00:26:00.440
<v Speaker 2>do anything to push Russia into a position where they

437
00:26:00.559 --> 00:26:06.039
<v Speaker 2>want to negotiate and support Ukraine and punish Russia the aggressors,

438
00:26:06.440 --> 00:26:08.720
<v Speaker 2>that perhaps we don't need to be involved in the

439
00:26:08.720 --> 00:26:14.480
<v Speaker 2>ceasefire negotiations because we're not even a neutral party in this,

440
00:26:14.759 --> 00:26:17.400
<v Speaker 2>and maybe Europe needs to step up, which is probably

441
00:26:17.440 --> 00:26:20.519
<v Speaker 2>going to happen if this keeps going like this, And

442
00:26:20.880 --> 00:26:23.680
<v Speaker 2>I mean Secretary of Rubio I think should be leading

443
00:26:24.079 --> 00:26:28.160
<v Speaker 2>the effort, not a Special envoy. But if he's saying

444
00:26:28.200 --> 00:26:30.240
<v Speaker 2>that they're going to withdraw, I think the people in

445
00:26:30.359 --> 00:26:34.039
<v Speaker 2>Ukraine and Europe are like, fine, I mean, you're doing

446
00:26:34.119 --> 00:26:39.640
<v Speaker 2>nothing to actually hold Russia accountable. They claimed they took

447
00:26:39.720 --> 00:26:42.319
<v Speaker 2>the ceasefire and did it, and then the next day,

448
00:26:43.480 --> 00:26:47.079
<v Speaker 2>before the Special Envoy even left Russia, they were attacking.

449
00:26:47.839 --> 00:26:49.759
<v Speaker 2>So they're making a mockery out of US. So as

450
00:26:49.839 --> 00:26:51.400
<v Speaker 2>much as I think the US is on the right

451
00:26:51.440 --> 00:26:54.559
<v Speaker 2>track on the Uranian thing, I don't understand how we

452
00:26:54.640 --> 00:26:58.240
<v Speaker 2>think this is an effective way to negotiate with Russia

453
00:26:58.319 --> 00:27:00.839
<v Speaker 2>and try to get to a ceasfire. We have to

454
00:27:01.200 --> 00:27:04.599
<v Speaker 2>we have to actually show Russia consequences to their continuation

455
00:27:05.039 --> 00:27:08.319
<v Speaker 2>of their unlawful, unprovoked attack on Ukraine.

456
00:27:09.839 --> 00:27:12.079
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think I think you're gonna step up, like

457
00:27:12.119 --> 00:27:14.759
<v Speaker 3>you said, I really think they they don't have a

458
00:27:14.839 --> 00:27:18.359
<v Speaker 3>choice at this point. And I think Ukraine is gonna

459
00:27:19.720 --> 00:27:22.559
<v Speaker 3>not necessarily turn its back on us for support, but

460
00:27:22.680 --> 00:27:25.720
<v Speaker 3>it's going to blade away from us and be like,

461
00:27:25.799 --> 00:27:27.559
<v Speaker 3>you're you know, what can you guys do for us?

462
00:27:27.559 --> 00:27:30.559
<v Speaker 3>Because as it stands right now, even if we stepped

463
00:27:30.599 --> 00:27:32.519
<v Speaker 3>out right now for there's breaking news and we said

464
00:27:32.559 --> 00:27:35.400
<v Speaker 3>we're done with the negotiation, we have left Russia in

465
00:27:35.440 --> 00:27:38.119
<v Speaker 3>a position of power just by our words, you know,

466
00:27:38.279 --> 00:27:44.359
<v Speaker 3>just even even saying we could we consider you know, uh,

467
00:27:44.559 --> 00:27:47.759
<v Speaker 3>recognizing this territory as Russia's that's enough, you know.

468
00:27:48.359 --> 00:27:49.039
<v Speaker 2>In that.

469
00:27:50.640 --> 00:27:53.720
<v Speaker 3>In that aspect, all that is just sticks and stones,

470
00:27:53.880 --> 00:27:56.880
<v Speaker 3>All that doesn't account because words do count in this,

471
00:27:57.119 --> 00:28:02.319
<v Speaker 3>uh in this in this instance, and uh yeah, I

472
00:28:02.319 --> 00:28:05.279
<v Speaker 3>think Europe is going to step up. And I just

473
00:28:05.319 --> 00:28:08.960
<v Speaker 3>think we're we're digging ourselves into a really bad hole

474
00:28:09.359 --> 00:28:12.119
<v Speaker 3>with this, the things that we're saying and doing, as

475
00:28:12.200 --> 00:28:14.839
<v Speaker 3>far as Ukraine is concerned, I think as far as

476
00:28:14.839 --> 00:28:18.559
<v Speaker 3>Iran is concerned, we're wombing in the right direction basically,

477
00:28:18.880 --> 00:28:22.440
<v Speaker 3>But with Ukraine, we're we're digging ourselves in a bad.

478
00:28:22.319 --> 00:28:29.400
<v Speaker 2>Hole worldwide, So yes, absolutely, and it's just to recognize

479
00:28:29.720 --> 00:28:34.960
<v Speaker 2>crimea as Russian territory essentially just promotes the idea, if

480
00:28:35.000 --> 00:28:38.039
<v Speaker 2>you're strong, you can take territory. Period. I mean it's yeah,

481
00:28:38.640 --> 00:28:41.559
<v Speaker 2>of course nobody else will except for Russia. Uh and

482
00:28:41.640 --> 00:28:43.799
<v Speaker 2>then uh and then of course in the United States

483
00:28:43.799 --> 00:28:46.039
<v Speaker 2>there's always a shift in you know, who's the president

484
00:28:46.079 --> 00:28:47.920
<v Speaker 2>who's not, and they'll go back to not recognize it.

485
00:28:47.960 --> 00:28:50.960
<v Speaker 2>So it's it's it all not only show a bizarre

486
00:28:51.599 --> 00:28:55.480
<v Speaker 2>deference to Russia, one of our most significant adversaries. It's

487
00:28:55.519 --> 00:28:58.480
<v Speaker 2>not gonna last as long. It's not gonna last. It's

488
00:28:58.519 --> 00:29:02.599
<v Speaker 2>gonna just uh. And Ukraine's gonna keep fighting and Russia

489
00:29:02.640 --> 00:29:05.480
<v Speaker 2>is not gonna be successful in taking over Ukraine. And

490
00:29:05.960 --> 00:29:09.000
<v Speaker 2>to Jason's point, the Europeans are definitely going to step up.

491
00:29:09.000 --> 00:29:12.359
<v Speaker 2>They are stepping up. They realize like they have to,

492
00:29:13.559 --> 00:29:15.599
<v Speaker 2>they have to spend a lot to ensure that Russia

493
00:29:15.640 --> 00:29:17.720
<v Speaker 2>loses Ukraine. And I think they're willing to do it,

494
00:29:18.079 --> 00:29:20.680
<v Speaker 2>and they have the economies to do it. Yeah.

495
00:29:20.920 --> 00:29:25.960
<v Speaker 1>The interesting thing is like we're we've like bled Russia

496
00:29:27.079 --> 00:29:29.039
<v Speaker 1>big time over the last three eight.

497
00:29:29.039 --> 00:29:33.960
<v Speaker 2>Hundred thousand casualties, eight thousand, probably around three hundred thousand dead.

498
00:29:34.240 --> 00:29:38.000
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Yeah, that's like incredible because like I imagine, imagine a

499
00:29:38.000 --> 00:29:40.119
<v Speaker 1>war the US was involved in and we had that

500
00:29:40.200 --> 00:29:43.440
<v Speaker 1>kind of casualty count. Yeah, they would be riots in

501
00:29:43.480 --> 00:29:45.559
<v Speaker 1>the street. Oh yeah, it would be like this.

502
00:29:45.440 --> 00:29:51.359
<v Speaker 2>Is eight thousand Vietnam, all of Vietnam, fifty eight thousand deaths. Yeah, yeah,

503
00:29:51.640 --> 00:29:52.720
<v Speaker 2>over three hundred thousand.

504
00:29:52.839 --> 00:29:56.640
<v Speaker 1>So, and just the blatant dist reguard of Putin and

505
00:29:56.680 --> 00:30:03.319
<v Speaker 1>his regime for like Russian people is kind of unfucking believable.

506
00:30:03.839 --> 00:30:06.680
<v Speaker 1>It's like biblical. It's World War two number stuff.

507
00:30:07.279 --> 00:30:10.720
<v Speaker 2>Annihilation of a whole generation of young Yeah.

508
00:30:10.559 --> 00:30:11.960
<v Speaker 3>I think I read something of it was like one

509
00:30:12.720 --> 00:30:15.720
<v Speaker 3>percent of their male population or something like that has

510
00:30:15.799 --> 00:30:16.839
<v Speaker 3>been wiped out.

511
00:30:17.359 --> 00:30:20.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and a lot and a lot more. It's fled.

512
00:30:22.480 --> 00:30:24.680
<v Speaker 1>Who's gonna get who's in the clip Putin? Bro, Let's

513
00:30:24.759 --> 00:30:27.119
<v Speaker 1>let's make up, let's do it, Let's let's devise it

514
00:30:27.200 --> 00:30:29.759
<v Speaker 1>right now. There's got to be something in the works,

515
00:30:29.799 --> 00:30:33.480
<v Speaker 1>like Ukrainian or some kind of like S SBU or

516
00:30:33.839 --> 00:30:36.359
<v Speaker 1>whatever trying to figure it out, or the polls. I'm

517
00:30:36.359 --> 00:30:40.799
<v Speaker 1>sure they're they're involved heavily. The scary thing is, I

518
00:30:40.799 --> 00:30:43.880
<v Speaker 1>know it's like more speculating, like if that were to happen,

519
00:30:43.960 --> 00:30:47.200
<v Speaker 1>like who takes over after pot and is it more

520
00:30:47.240 --> 00:30:51.279
<v Speaker 1>of a lunatic which is hard to believe, right, or

521
00:30:51.319 --> 00:30:54.640
<v Speaker 1>somebody who would be looking to looking for the off

522
00:30:54.720 --> 00:30:59.960
<v Speaker 1>ramp here. I mean, I don't know. It's just unbelievable.

523
00:31:00.200 --> 00:31:03.119
<v Speaker 2>It's a transition for just from the normal you know,

524
00:31:03.240 --> 00:31:06.519
<v Speaker 2>life cycle of a leader. And Putin gets to pick him,

525
00:31:06.559 --> 00:31:09.039
<v Speaker 2>then it's imagine it's going to be somebody aligned with

526
00:31:09.119 --> 00:31:13.720
<v Speaker 2>him or potentially even more fervent if it's a if

527
00:31:13.759 --> 00:31:18.839
<v Speaker 2>it's an organic overthrow of the government. Ohs right, who knows,

528
00:31:19.640 --> 00:31:22.240
<v Speaker 2>total crap show. I mean, he stayed in power in

529
00:31:22.279 --> 00:31:26.240
<v Speaker 2>this long. He's a former KGB colonel, he knows security,

530
00:31:26.559 --> 00:31:28.839
<v Speaker 2>he I mean, he knows how to keep his regime

531
00:31:29.279 --> 00:31:33.720
<v Speaker 2>in place. So it's, uh, we can't count on change

532
00:31:33.720 --> 00:31:34.279
<v Speaker 2>in leadership.

533
00:31:34.519 --> 00:31:38.440
<v Speaker 1>Sure, and I'm sure like probably scared the ship out

534
00:31:38.440 --> 00:31:43.640
<v Speaker 1>of him, went down with uh pregosion, right, I'm sure

535
00:31:43.759 --> 00:31:52.279
<v Speaker 1>like after that he probably clamped clamped down times ten. Yeah,

536
00:31:52.440 --> 00:31:55.119
<v Speaker 1>there seems to be a real schis him in the

537
00:31:55.160 --> 00:32:00.759
<v Speaker 1>Trump administration of you know, the wick Coughs, the Rubios,

538
00:32:00.960 --> 00:32:05.519
<v Speaker 1>the Rubio's catalogs and the wick Coughs and everybody else. Basically,

539
00:32:07.839 --> 00:32:11.799
<v Speaker 1>I honestly don't know how Rubio's doing this, how he

540
00:32:11.880 --> 00:32:12.599
<v Speaker 1>wants to do it.

541
00:32:13.640 --> 00:32:17.200
<v Speaker 2>I mean, I would say that there's a traditional Republican view,

542
00:32:18.200 --> 00:32:21.839
<v Speaker 2>which of course is Russia is our adversary, the US

543
00:32:21.880 --> 00:32:23.960
<v Speaker 2>should lead the free world, you know, kind of the

544
00:32:24.000 --> 00:32:27.599
<v Speaker 2>Reagan view, and I think Rubio kind of represents that

545
00:32:27.680 --> 00:32:30.240
<v Speaker 2>in the current administration, and so does Mike Wells to

546
00:32:30.279 --> 00:32:33.240
<v Speaker 2>a certain extent. So I hope they stick around because

547
00:32:33.240 --> 00:32:35.200
<v Speaker 2>it's important, you know, from a person who kind of

548
00:32:35.279 --> 00:32:38.559
<v Speaker 2>views them the world that way, that that is represented.

549
00:32:39.079 --> 00:32:42.400
<v Speaker 2>The idea that you can go kowtow as some have

550
00:32:42.720 --> 00:32:46.279
<v Speaker 2>to President Putin and somehow that's going to work out

551
00:32:46.279 --> 00:32:48.839
<v Speaker 2>well for you. It's just lost on me. It just

552
00:32:48.960 --> 00:32:54.039
<v Speaker 2>ignores essentially all of human history, so that especially when

553
00:32:54.079 --> 00:32:58.720
<v Speaker 2>dealing with an autocrat, right, they never go, Wow, this

554
00:32:58.759 --> 00:33:02.240
<v Speaker 2>guy's really nice. I won't take advantage of them. They go, wow,

555
00:33:02.279 --> 00:33:04.880
<v Speaker 2>this guy's really nice. I am definitely gonna take it.

556
00:33:04.880 --> 00:33:07.440
<v Speaker 1>To him, right, yeah, right.

557
00:33:08.599 --> 00:33:13.960
<v Speaker 2>Right, it's I'm sure the Russians are baffled. There's even

558
00:33:14.000 --> 00:33:17.240
<v Speaker 2>reporting that they're like it's they're confused, you.

559
00:33:17.200 --> 00:33:19.680
<v Speaker 1>Know, yeah, like, is this a move like what's going on?

560
00:33:20.240 --> 00:33:21.200
<v Speaker 1>It's too easy.

561
00:33:21.799 --> 00:33:28.279
<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I mean listen you you hear Steve Waykoff speak

562
00:33:28.559 --> 00:33:30.759
<v Speaker 5>and he's a he's a point guy right for this

563
00:33:31.119 --> 00:33:33.880
<v Speaker 5>at this point, at this point in time, and it

564
00:33:34.119 --> 00:33:38.480
<v Speaker 5>literally like you listen to it and you're like, what

565
00:33:38.880 --> 00:33:39.480
<v Speaker 5>is going on?

566
00:33:39.559 --> 00:33:41.640
<v Speaker 1>Like this isn't a real estate deal. This isn't a

567
00:33:41.720 --> 00:33:43.799
<v Speaker 1>deal where like everyone could kiss each other's ask because

568
00:33:43.799 --> 00:33:48.240
<v Speaker 1>everyone's gonna get rich. This is like real life people

569
00:33:48.400 --> 00:33:53.359
<v Speaker 1>living and dying. Uh, Civilians dying like in both Ukrainians

570
00:33:53.400 --> 00:33:57.400
<v Speaker 1>and Russians fucking dying too, like and just like the

571
00:33:57.519 --> 00:34:00.279
<v Speaker 1>flip it kind of like, yeah, we're all buds. Here

572
00:34:01.000 --> 00:34:03.160
<v Speaker 1>is head scratching.

573
00:34:04.839 --> 00:34:06.799
<v Speaker 2>It's head scratching for a lot of reasons. But I

574
00:34:07.240 --> 00:34:09.880
<v Speaker 2>can tell you and anybody's ever dealt with Russia knows

575
00:34:10.119 --> 00:34:13.320
<v Speaker 2>they don't view us as a friend. They never will.

576
00:34:14.000 --> 00:34:15.559
<v Speaker 2>They never will. You could say all that stuff and

577
00:34:15.599 --> 00:34:17.400
<v Speaker 2>they'll be like, yeah, yeah, yeah, stud just left the room.

578
00:34:17.440 --> 00:34:20.840
<v Speaker 2>They're like at that guy. Yeah, I mean they they

579
00:34:21.159 --> 00:34:23.159
<v Speaker 2>they're like part of their existence is to be counter

580
00:34:23.199 --> 00:34:26.960
<v Speaker 2>to whatever the US is. Just it's just how they

581
00:34:27.119 --> 00:34:30.199
<v Speaker 2>It's how a lot of autocrats, the autocracies work, right,

582
00:34:30.599 --> 00:34:34.599
<v Speaker 2>They build up nationalists sentiment by having an enemy, right, well,

583
00:34:34.599 --> 00:34:39.360
<v Speaker 2>were the enemy. They're not not going to change. They'll

584
00:34:39.400 --> 00:34:41.480
<v Speaker 2>say things and the piece things and you know, not

585
00:34:41.599 --> 00:34:45.039
<v Speaker 2>peace but the conciliatory, but they don't mean it and

586
00:34:45.079 --> 00:34:47.840
<v Speaker 2>they never will. And you know, we've had other presidents

587
00:34:47.840 --> 00:34:51.440
<v Speaker 2>that you know, have thought this and proven wrong, and

588
00:34:51.480 --> 00:34:53.599
<v Speaker 2>they even acknowledge it. You know, President Bush, what he

589
00:34:53.679 --> 00:34:57.119
<v Speaker 2>looked into the eyes, you know, and it's just not

590
00:34:57.239 --> 00:34:59.480
<v Speaker 2>the case. It's time to be realistic. Doesn't mean we

591
00:34:59.519 --> 00:35:02.199
<v Speaker 2>can't deal with We should deal with everybody world right,

592
00:35:02.239 --> 00:35:05.119
<v Speaker 2>we should do everything we can to mitigate another world war,

593
00:35:05.960 --> 00:35:09.159
<v Speaker 2>because I think people have forgot just how horrendous a

594
00:35:09.199 --> 00:35:12.960
<v Speaker 2>world war is. So I'm certainly not saying that we

595
00:35:12.960 --> 00:35:16.639
<v Speaker 2>should be at fisticuffs with Russia at all times. And

596
00:35:16.760 --> 00:35:18.760
<v Speaker 2>we also ought to be smart enough to realize that

597
00:35:19.039 --> 00:35:21.880
<v Speaker 2>they have no interest in being conciliatory to the United

598
00:35:21.880 --> 00:35:23.440
<v Speaker 2>States in actuality.

599
00:35:24.960 --> 00:35:27.079
<v Speaker 1>And the interesting thing is too, they've done some polling

600
00:35:27.119 --> 00:35:29.039
<v Speaker 1>on this too, and like almost sixty percent of the

601
00:35:29.119 --> 00:35:31.639
<v Speaker 1>United of American people are like, yeah, we should continue

602
00:35:31.679 --> 00:35:36.119
<v Speaker 1>to continue to support Ukraine. Yes, So like the polling's there, obviously,

603
00:35:36.159 --> 00:35:38.079
<v Speaker 1>it's number twelve on the list or of whatever. If

604
00:35:38.119 --> 00:35:40.320
<v Speaker 1>people things can't care about. But at the same time,

605
00:35:40.360 --> 00:35:43.440
<v Speaker 1>there is sentiment in the United States where people are like, yeah,

606
00:35:43.480 --> 00:35:44.960
<v Speaker 1>we should continue to help them out.

607
00:35:45.719 --> 00:35:48.360
<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Absolutely, it is in our own interests. It's in

608
00:35:48.360 --> 00:35:52.039
<v Speaker 2>our own national security interest. It's not charity, and it's

609
00:35:52.079 --> 00:35:56.079
<v Speaker 2>important that we stay as a main leader in the world.

610
00:35:56.320 --> 00:35:59.000
<v Speaker 2>This is it. If we pull out of it, that

611
00:35:59.119 --> 00:36:01.159
<v Speaker 2>people view it what it is. The US is was

612
00:36:01.280 --> 00:36:03.599
<v Speaker 2>drawn for being the leader of the free world.

613
00:36:05.159 --> 00:36:06.079
<v Speaker 1>And who takes over.

614
00:36:07.079 --> 00:36:09.719
<v Speaker 2>Who takes over probably be some European or probably europe

615
00:36:09.960 --> 00:36:10.480
<v Speaker 2>in general.

616
00:36:11.639 --> 00:36:14.559
<v Speaker 1>You talk in terms of like in general generality as

617
00:36:14.559 --> 00:36:16.960
<v Speaker 1>the leader of the free world, or like the guy

618
00:36:17.119 --> 00:36:19.280
<v Speaker 1>a person who takes over the country that takes over,

619
00:36:19.400 --> 00:36:23.239
<v Speaker 1>like fills the vacuum there. I think it's China obviously

620
00:36:23.280 --> 00:36:25.880
<v Speaker 1>not having it. I think China, even though there have

621
00:36:26.000 --> 00:36:30.000
<v Speaker 1>been reports of Chinese fighters on the ground in Ukraine,

622
00:36:30.360 --> 00:36:32.199
<v Speaker 1>and there has been a report too of some Chinese

623
00:36:32.239 --> 00:36:34.920
<v Speaker 1>officials going over to Ukraine to like observe what's going

624
00:36:34.960 --> 00:36:36.840
<v Speaker 1>on or Russia to observe what's going on.

625
00:36:39.079 --> 00:36:40.639
<v Speaker 2>Well, China will try to take it over as the

626
00:36:40.639 --> 00:36:43.800
<v Speaker 2>world superpower, right correct, world because they're not even a

627
00:36:43.840 --> 00:36:47.480
<v Speaker 2>part of it. But the US is the one who's

628
00:36:47.519 --> 00:36:50.920
<v Speaker 2>set up the current system worldwide after World War Two,

629
00:36:51.320 --> 00:36:53.920
<v Speaker 2>with US essentially at the helm, which is a good

630
00:36:53.920 --> 00:36:58.960
<v Speaker 2>place to be security wise, economic wise, and everything. We

631
00:36:59.039 --> 00:37:02.079
<v Speaker 2>don't want that even just looking at if you want

632
00:37:02.079 --> 00:37:05.199
<v Speaker 2>to use the term America first. America first would be

633
00:37:05.320 --> 00:37:08.039
<v Speaker 2>to maintain our leadership of the free world. It's in

634
00:37:08.079 --> 00:37:17.519
<v Speaker 2>our own interest financially, security, everything, So we don't want

635
00:37:17.519 --> 00:37:21.360
<v Speaker 2>to be replaced. But we have to actually do more

636
00:37:21.400 --> 00:37:24.440
<v Speaker 2>than just talk. We have to actually act, and we have,

637
00:37:25.639 --> 00:37:28.920
<v Speaker 2>but we just need to continue to do so. Humble opinion.

638
00:37:30.039 --> 00:37:33.719
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we'll see what goes down. Another bit of news

639
00:37:33.920 --> 00:37:39.119
<v Speaker 1>coming out from Nicky shared this with us yesterday. Do

640
00:37:39.159 --> 00:37:41.239
<v Speaker 1>you want to give a rundown of what went down?

641
00:37:41.280 --> 00:37:45.719
<v Speaker 1>It looks like the program to help the folks that

642
00:37:45.800 --> 00:37:49.719
<v Speaker 1>helped us in Afghanistan is getting its funding revoked and

643
00:37:49.760 --> 00:37:51.519
<v Speaker 1>make if you want to give us some more specifics

644
00:37:51.519 --> 00:37:51.719
<v Speaker 1>on that.

645
00:37:52.320 --> 00:37:59.159
<v Speaker 2>So, of course, going back to the horrendous withdrawal of Afghanistan,

646
00:37:59.199 --> 00:38:03.599
<v Speaker 2>obviously a lot of people, but certainly veterans, became involved

647
00:38:03.639 --> 00:38:07.719
<v Speaker 2>in the evacuation of our partner who fought alongside us

648
00:38:07.719 --> 00:38:11.599
<v Speaker 2>for twenty years. It was quite frankly an embarrassment the

649
00:38:11.639 --> 00:38:14.079
<v Speaker 2>way we left it, but a lot of things were

650
00:38:14.079 --> 00:38:17.480
<v Speaker 2>put into place to help those that were left behind

651
00:38:17.719 --> 00:38:21.079
<v Speaker 2>since it was such a precipitous withdraw Even people with SIVs,

652
00:38:21.840 --> 00:38:24.760
<v Speaker 2>which is special immigrant vices to come to the United

653
00:38:24.760 --> 00:38:27.960
<v Speaker 2>States weren't didn't come because they didn't get a half

654
00:38:28.000 --> 00:38:29.760
<v Speaker 2>a way out, and they've been trying to ever since.

655
00:38:30.360 --> 00:38:34.440
<v Speaker 2>So it looks like the coordinator for the Afghan relocation efforts,

656
00:38:34.719 --> 00:38:37.800
<v Speaker 2>which is CARE the acronym for the office, is going

657
00:38:37.840 --> 00:38:42.480
<v Speaker 2>to be closed down this month, which would leave people

658
00:38:42.559 --> 00:38:47.679
<v Speaker 2>essentially stranded. People who fought alongside US, who met the

659
00:38:47.760 --> 00:38:51.280
<v Speaker 2>qualifications for SIV or were very close. Of course, the

660
00:38:51.320 --> 00:38:54.079
<v Speaker 2>Taliban doesn't care if you met it or were very close.

661
00:38:54.119 --> 00:38:56.719
<v Speaker 2>They're still going to kill you and they have no

662
00:38:56.800 --> 00:39:00.920
<v Speaker 2>place else to go. And would point out that this

663
00:39:01.039 --> 00:39:05.920
<v Speaker 2>is one of the most heavily screened populations of any

664
00:39:05.960 --> 00:39:09.440
<v Speaker 2>person coming to the United States. They went through extensive

665
00:39:09.480 --> 00:39:12.519
<v Speaker 2>background and of course many of them, if not most

666
00:39:12.519 --> 00:39:17.639
<v Speaker 2>of them, supported directly US military in the fight against

667
00:39:17.639 --> 00:39:21.960
<v Speaker 2>the Talbot. So it would be a horrendous change, in

668
00:39:22.000 --> 00:39:28.960
<v Speaker 2>my opinion, and it would be essentially abandoning our promise

669
00:39:29.199 --> 00:39:33.159
<v Speaker 2>to these folks. There's a lot of other veterans and

670
00:39:33.199 --> 00:39:37.039
<v Speaker 2>I was involved in a group called the Dunkirk, but

671
00:39:37.079 --> 00:39:39.800
<v Speaker 2>a lot of other veteran groups that have stayed and

672
00:39:39.960 --> 00:39:45.119
<v Speaker 2>really done a lot to continue this effort. Sean van

673
00:39:45.159 --> 00:39:50.280
<v Speaker 2>der Bert was well, I think it's Afghan eMac. Hopefully

674
00:39:50.280 --> 00:39:51.880
<v Speaker 2>we can get them on the show and you guys

675
00:39:51.880 --> 00:39:55.880
<v Speaker 2>can interview them, but that are still very much attracting.

676
00:39:55.920 --> 00:40:00.239
<v Speaker 2>This can go into much more detail, but essentially this

677
00:40:00.360 --> 00:40:03.039
<v Speaker 2>needs to happen. There's a lot of vets left right

678
00:40:03.039 --> 00:40:06.360
<v Speaker 2>and center who who think this should happen and are

679
00:40:06.400 --> 00:40:08.360
<v Speaker 2>going to be pushing for this and talking to their

680
00:40:08.400 --> 00:40:11.679
<v Speaker 2>congress men and women about making sure we don't abandon

681
00:40:11.719 --> 00:40:13.519
<v Speaker 2>these partners.

682
00:40:14.079 --> 00:40:17.400
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and just to note, this was funded through twenty

683
00:40:17.440 --> 00:40:21.079
<v Speaker 1>twenty seven. Are supposedly supposed to be funded to through

684
00:40:21.079 --> 00:40:23.679
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty seven, and it's checked my time. It's not

685
00:40:23.840 --> 00:40:28.360
<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty seven. Congress funded it, which is how the

686
00:40:28.360 --> 00:40:31.039
<v Speaker 1>constitution works, which maybe we should you know, do that,

687
00:40:32.360 --> 00:40:35.280
<v Speaker 1>and I think it, you know, the blowback in terms

688
00:40:35.280 --> 00:40:37.840
<v Speaker 1>of like what are other allies going to think if

689
00:40:37.840 --> 00:40:40.119
<v Speaker 1>we're trying to use a partner force and stuff like that.

690
00:40:41.480 --> 00:40:43.440
<v Speaker 1>They're not going to believe a fucking word we say.

691
00:40:43.599 --> 00:40:46.679
<v Speaker 1>I wouldn't, right if I have some CIA guy coming

692
00:40:46.719 --> 00:40:49.480
<v Speaker 1>to me like you're gonna fucking abandon me too the minute,

693
00:40:49.519 --> 00:40:51.000
<v Speaker 1>like the political will is gone.

694
00:40:51.679 --> 00:40:54.199
<v Speaker 2>Yep. Yeah. And as a guy who spend a lot

695
00:40:54.239 --> 00:40:56.960
<v Speaker 2>of my time with partner forces, yeah, it's a big problem.

696
00:40:57.360 --> 00:40:58.679
<v Speaker 1>I mean, at the same time, I'd be like, I'm

697
00:40:58.679 --> 00:41:00.920
<v Speaker 1>going to take your money and stuff, but you know,

698
00:41:01.000 --> 00:41:03.719
<v Speaker 1>I'm not expecting that much from you guys, if I'm

699
00:41:03.719 --> 00:41:04.559
<v Speaker 1>completely honest.

700
00:41:04.679 --> 00:41:08.719
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, pass this prologue. Man, That's what I would

701
00:41:08.880 --> 00:41:10.519
<v Speaker 2>I would be asking the same question if I was

702
00:41:10.519 --> 00:41:14.599
<v Speaker 2>in their shoes. Yeah, we're remember the earlier part of

703
00:41:14.599 --> 00:41:16.519
<v Speaker 2>this discussion, not that we're going to promise all these

704
00:41:16.559 --> 00:41:19.079
<v Speaker 2>Gemini fighters. Uh, you know, s I v S. But

705
00:41:19.360 --> 00:41:22.360
<v Speaker 2>we're talking about using a partner force right now, right exactly,

706
00:41:23.159 --> 00:41:25.519
<v Speaker 2>and it's gonna that's that's the way of modern warfare.

707
00:41:25.639 --> 00:41:29.199
<v Speaker 2>Regular warfare. Partner force operations are a key component for

708
00:41:29.239 --> 00:41:31.440
<v Speaker 2>a reason. We don't like to. Uh, it's a big

709
00:41:31.480 --> 00:41:35.199
<v Speaker 2>political decision to put conventional US forces on the ground

710
00:41:35.320 --> 00:41:38.480
<v Speaker 2>and arms way again. And after twenty years of fight

711
00:41:38.480 --> 00:41:39.760
<v Speaker 2>in Afghanistan.

712
00:41:39.199 --> 00:41:40.519
<v Speaker 1>In the Middle East.

713
00:41:40.880 --> 00:41:43.440
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's very unlikely to happen again, or at least

714
00:41:43.480 --> 00:41:46.719
<v Speaker 2>it's it's it's less likely. So Parker forces are going

715
00:41:46.760 --> 00:41:49.440
<v Speaker 2>to be key going ahead. And if we don't keep

716
00:41:49.480 --> 00:41:55.400
<v Speaker 2>our word, it's gonna it's gonna change the the attitude

717
00:41:55.440 --> 00:41:56.199
<v Speaker 2>they have towards us.

718
00:41:57.599 --> 00:41:59.599
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and listen to me as being like a regular

719
00:41:59.679 --> 00:42:01.760
<v Speaker 1>hit is that doesn't hasn't done anything, that's just been

720
00:42:01.800 --> 00:42:04.719
<v Speaker 1>experiencing the last twenty years and stuff like that, I

721
00:42:04.760 --> 00:42:07.800
<v Speaker 1>can kind of get behind, you know, a handful of odas,

722
00:42:07.840 --> 00:42:09.599
<v Speaker 1>some a little piece of the rage of regiments and

723
00:42:09.719 --> 00:42:16.400
<v Speaker 1>Jaysuck and CIA, you know, facilitating the Yemeny Army into

724
00:42:16.440 --> 00:42:18.480
<v Speaker 1>going after the Houthis and stuff like that, Like that

725
00:42:18.559 --> 00:42:21.320
<v Speaker 1>I can buy, but not you know, one hundred and

726
00:42:21.320 --> 00:42:25.079
<v Speaker 1>fifty thousand, one hundred first airborne guys or marines and

727
00:42:25.079 --> 00:42:27.920
<v Speaker 1>stuff like that going in Like that's that's it. It

728
00:42:28.440 --> 00:42:30.840
<v Speaker 1>is a political no go in this country.

729
00:42:31.159 --> 00:42:31.960
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it should be.

730
00:42:32.199 --> 00:42:35.519
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, exactly, Yeah, I agree one hundred percent.

731
00:42:37.360 --> 00:42:41.559
<v Speaker 2>Not just because my son's an unders right, but I mean,

732
00:42:41.639 --> 00:42:43.960
<v Speaker 2>I mean seriously, and when it comes to committing US

733
00:42:44.039 --> 00:42:46.599
<v Speaker 2>force on the ground, it has to be an absolute

734
00:42:46.719 --> 00:42:51.280
<v Speaker 2>direct US national security interest and no other option. That's

735
00:42:51.280 --> 00:42:54.840
<v Speaker 2>what I would that would be my policy until then. Yes,

736
00:42:55.320 --> 00:42:59.480
<v Speaker 2>Partner Force Operations, Special Operations, Intel for sure.

737
00:42:59.760 --> 00:43:02.039
<v Speaker 1>Yeah yeah, I mean that's the name of the game.

738
00:43:02.079 --> 00:43:04.639
<v Speaker 1>That's that's what they that's what they do best, right,

739
00:43:04.760 --> 00:43:09.280
<v Speaker 1>So I'm down with that, you know what I mean.

740
00:43:09.280 --> 00:43:11.440
<v Speaker 1>But I don't want it to be another quagmire in

741
00:43:11.599 --> 00:43:16.119
<v Speaker 1>Yemen uh where when it's like there's no coalition, really

742
00:43:16.360 --> 00:43:19.920
<v Speaker 1>like international coalition, especially what you would think though, an

743
00:43:19.960 --> 00:43:23.280
<v Speaker 1>issue like what's going on in the Red Sea with

744
00:43:23.679 --> 00:43:27.039
<v Speaker 1>navigation and freedom and navigation should be more likely to

745
00:43:27.280 --> 00:43:30.960
<v Speaker 1>induce a coalition to get together to do something like this. Yeah,

746
00:43:31.239 --> 00:43:35.239
<v Speaker 1>because everyone's economically involved and affected by this stuff.

747
00:43:35.800 --> 00:43:38.639
<v Speaker 2>It's a good point because there is a coalition. I

748
00:43:38.639 --> 00:43:44.880
<v Speaker 2>don't remember how many countries, but it's it's Operation Prosperity Guardian.

749
00:43:45.199 --> 00:43:48.159
<v Speaker 1>I think make you're an expert. You're an expert, and

750
00:43:48.199 --> 00:43:51.360
<v Speaker 1>you couldn't remember because like, what's this fucking coalition actually doing?

751
00:43:51.519 --> 00:43:54.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah right, sorry, I'm getting I'm getting why I'm getting

752
00:43:54.360 --> 00:43:54.760
<v Speaker 1>red hot.

753
00:43:55.239 --> 00:43:58.559
<v Speaker 2>And we had that, we had the International Maritime Security

754
00:43:58.559 --> 00:44:01.159
<v Speaker 2>Construct when I was at the Pentagon, So it's the

755
00:44:01.159 --> 00:44:04.920
<v Speaker 2>same thing. Basically because there's especially it comes a naval power,

756
00:44:05.960 --> 00:44:08.199
<v Speaker 2>there's political like hey, we're with you guys, But then

757
00:44:08.199 --> 00:44:12.840
<v Speaker 2>there's actually capacity, right, and very very very few countries

758
00:44:12.880 --> 00:44:19.199
<v Speaker 2>actually have naval, maritime air capacity, and it's basically the US,

759
00:44:19.760 --> 00:44:20.880
<v Speaker 2>the UK, and France.

760
00:44:21.320 --> 00:44:21.519
<v Speaker 1>Right.

761
00:44:21.599 --> 00:44:24.079
<v Speaker 2>So this coalition of I don't know, say, thirty five

762
00:44:24.119 --> 00:44:29.559
<v Speaker 2>countries boils down to like three, yeah, and nobody holds

763
00:44:29.599 --> 00:44:33.199
<v Speaker 2>the candle to us. So I hope, especially with their

764
00:44:33.199 --> 00:44:36.079
<v Speaker 2>European partners, they start realizing that they have to do more.

765
00:44:36.440 --> 00:44:38.760
<v Speaker 2>They have to bring more to the game than just

766
00:44:38.920 --> 00:44:42.039
<v Speaker 2>you know, what they're doing. And I think you're seeing

767
00:44:42.039 --> 00:44:45.480
<v Speaker 2>that because they're concerned about Russia. But that's why these

768
00:44:45.480 --> 00:44:48.599
<v Speaker 2>coalitions sound huge, but you can't remember who's in it

769
00:44:48.679 --> 00:44:51.000
<v Speaker 2>because you never see any of them actually doing anything.

770
00:44:51.119 --> 00:44:56.480
<v Speaker 2>They'll send staff folks to our jock, right, and that's

771
00:44:56.519 --> 00:44:57.440
<v Speaker 2>them participating.

772
00:44:57.519 --> 00:45:00.320
<v Speaker 1>But now you stand there with like a clipboar.

773
00:45:01.719 --> 00:45:06.280
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, and what everybody does. But yeah, and I'm not

774
00:45:06.320 --> 00:45:09.599
<v Speaker 2>diminishing it. We need politically, we need other countries. So

775
00:45:09.639 --> 00:45:12.679
<v Speaker 2>it's not the US, But when it comes to naval capability,

776
00:45:12.719 --> 00:45:14.400
<v Speaker 2>it's there's not a whole lot of countries out there.

777
00:45:14.440 --> 00:45:17.119
<v Speaker 2>They can even participate at this level.

778
00:45:19.880 --> 00:45:24.159
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, all right, is there anywhere somebody could go to

779
00:45:24.360 --> 00:45:27.079
<v Speaker 1>help out with like maybe putting the screws to the

780
00:45:27.119 --> 00:45:33.480
<v Speaker 1>administration about not pulling this funding from Congress.

781
00:45:33.519 --> 00:45:37.159
<v Speaker 2>You already said it. Call your congressman, And there's plenty

782
00:45:37.199 --> 00:45:40.440
<v Speaker 2>of veteran congressmen on both sides of the aisle who

783
00:45:40.440 --> 00:45:44.960
<v Speaker 2>are and have been very big, staunch advocates of this program.

784
00:45:45.239 --> 00:45:47.800
<v Speaker 2>So I think this is this is that is where

785
00:45:48.159 --> 00:45:52.000
<v Speaker 2>people should go and have them explain why we're abandoned

786
00:45:52.000 --> 00:45:56.320
<v Speaker 2>in our partners after not only promising them then, but

787
00:45:56.400 --> 00:45:59.400
<v Speaker 2>promising them after we withdrew and left them. If not,

788
00:45:59.480 --> 00:46:03.239
<v Speaker 2>there's gonna be there could be a lot of them

789
00:46:03.239 --> 00:46:05.599
<v Speaker 2>are in other countries. I think I read ninety different

790
00:46:05.599 --> 00:46:10.000
<v Speaker 2>countries or and they're on their way here. Again, they

791
00:46:10.000 --> 00:46:13.159
<v Speaker 2>are completely vetted, and if they're not vetted, they shouldn't come.

792
00:46:13.519 --> 00:46:16.920
<v Speaker 2>But if they are vetted and we're you know, we're

793
00:46:16.960 --> 00:46:19.360
<v Speaker 2>confident they are who they said they were, They fought

794
00:46:19.360 --> 00:46:21.360
<v Speaker 2>alongside of us, and they're not a threat. Those are

795
00:46:21.360 --> 00:46:22.320
<v Speaker 2>the kind of people who want to.

796
00:46:22.280 --> 00:46:25.599
<v Speaker 1>Be American, right, you would think, yeah, I mean.

797
00:46:26.320 --> 00:46:28.000
<v Speaker 2>They already fought for America.

798
00:46:27.800 --> 00:46:30.599
<v Speaker 1>Right, Yeah, they've done more than most most people were

799
00:46:30.599 --> 00:46:32.800
<v Speaker 1>citizens of America, so myself included.

800
00:46:32.840 --> 00:46:36.239
<v Speaker 2>So it's like, and I know a lot of them,

801
00:46:36.280 --> 00:46:39.760
<v Speaker 2>not that I mean anecdotally. They come and man, they're

802
00:46:39.800 --> 00:46:41.800
<v Speaker 2>like a lot of immigrants to the United States. They come,

803
00:46:41.840 --> 00:46:44.559
<v Speaker 2>they're driving an uber in the first generation and second generation.

804
00:46:44.679 --> 00:46:46.079
<v Speaker 2>They're you know, they.

805
00:46:46.039 --> 00:46:49.159
<v Speaker 3>Own own business or business.

806
00:46:49.000 --> 00:46:52.280
<v Speaker 2>Right, going to fancy paid schools. I mean, they are

807
00:46:52.360 --> 00:46:56.039
<v Speaker 2>here to They're not here to mooch. Nope, right, they do.

808
00:46:56.360 --> 00:46:59.480
<v Speaker 2>They do really well. They have a very tight knit community.

809
00:47:00.280 --> 00:47:02.320
<v Speaker 2>We're tied into him just because people are knew in

810
00:47:02.320 --> 00:47:04.920
<v Speaker 2>Afghanistan and they and they look at for each other

811
00:47:04.960 --> 00:47:08.039
<v Speaker 2>and they do really well. They are very productive members

812
00:47:08.039 --> 00:47:11.239
<v Speaker 2>of society in general. I think everybody knows that.

813
00:47:13.639 --> 00:47:17.320
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, very well said anything else, guys.

814
00:47:19.159 --> 00:47:20.039
<v Speaker 2>We covered a lot.

815
00:47:20.400 --> 00:47:23.960
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, do us a favor. Go and check out the

816
00:47:24.000 --> 00:47:26.440
<v Speaker 1>links down in the description. If you want to find

817
00:47:26.519 --> 00:47:31.760
<v Speaker 1>Mick on LinkedIn or fog bow Lobo, any of his publications.

818
00:47:31.840 --> 00:47:34.119
<v Speaker 1>The links are in the description Jason Lyones. His links

819
00:47:34.119 --> 00:47:37.199
<v Speaker 1>are in the description. Andy Millburn great book, When the

820
00:47:37.199 --> 00:47:39.559
<v Speaker 1>Tempest Gathers. Sorry he couldn't make it today. He's in

821
00:47:39.599 --> 00:47:43.559
<v Speaker 1>the gym. Link is in the description as well. And

822
00:47:43.559 --> 00:47:45.159
<v Speaker 1>if you want to help support the show and get

823
00:47:45.159 --> 00:47:49.400
<v Speaker 1>the Teamhouse ad free in early access is on Geopolitics.

824
00:47:49.440 --> 00:47:52.880
<v Speaker 1>AD free and early access go to our patreon Patreon

825
00:47:52.920 --> 00:47:55.760
<v Speaker 1>dot com slash the Teamhouse, buy some merch you saw

826
00:47:55.840 --> 00:47:58.159
<v Speaker 1>make drinking that of the eyes on mug. It looks incredible.

827
00:47:59.320 --> 00:48:00.679
<v Speaker 1>And yeah, guys, happy Easter.

828
00:48:00.880 --> 00:48:09.119
<v Speaker 2>Whoever celeb happy, best place to celebrate greeced it out

829
00:48:09.159 --> 00:48:12.360
<v Speaker 2>to you man. You ever getting to be there and

830
00:48:12.440 --> 00:48:16.960
<v Speaker 2>on Easter, that's the place to be. Yeah, yeah, you'll

831
00:48:16.960 --> 00:48:18.480
<v Speaker 2>know what I'm saying once you go there.

832
00:48:18.519 --> 00:48:24.639
<v Speaker 1>And uh, Jason sent me an Instagram story yesterday stereotyping

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<v Speaker 1>us Greeks, and you know what it was, what goes

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<v Speaker 1>on during Easter and stuff like that. It was pinpoint perfect.

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<v Speaker 1>That's literally what's going to be happening tomorrow my aunt's house. Awesome,

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks guys, Yeah, thank you.

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<v Speaker 2>Great rest of your weekend, all right too, Happy Eastern