Speaker 1: Welcome, Last Call, Wager Talk, Last Call, Saturday, eleven am
Eastern Live, and we got college football starting here at
noon Eastern exactly one hour. So this is truly last
call before the start of the college football season twenty
twenty five. I am Steve Merril, fillinon for Aeriel Epstein
and Kelly Stewart as well. She's over in Ireland watching
her beloved Kansas State Wildcats play. We're gonna talk a
lot about college football Week zero is here. Also a
little baseball along the way, Hey, maybe some WNBA golf
whatever else? The steam report off the top here, Yanni
the Greek.
Speaker 2: Let's get right to it.
Speaker 1: It's a busy Saturday, to say the least, and we
got our first official college football game of the season.
And we're gonna bring the Greek here in a moment
when he is ready. I'm not seeing it now he's back.
We're gonna start with Jesse Schule. Oh, by the way,
Louis is in for Dan Alexander, so we're gonna have
a little bit of a switcheroo here, Jesse Schole. Let's
make it difficult on Louie's first show. Jesse, we'll switch
up the order live on wager Talk TV. Hey, hey,
talk to you though, because look, you've got a take
on this Kansas State Iowa State game.
Speaker 2: I've got a free play video.
Speaker 1: Don't want people leaving the show here to watch it,
but if they want some inside, they can dabble at
it real quick. I did saw it until earlier this
week on wager Talk Today. So very curious Jessey to
get your thoughts. You know, I joke about week zero.
It's a hell of a matchup. Not only is the
Top twenty matchup to the front runners in the Big twelve,
the loser is gonna be on the outside looking in,
to say the least, because this is a conference game
to start with the college football season.
Speaker 3: Yes, Steve, it's unfortunate they move a rivalry game like
Farmageddon overseas.
Speaker 4: I love the Ireland game.
Speaker 3: Last year's game with Georgia Tech and Florida State was awesome,
but a rivalry game like this should probably stay stateside.
But it's gonna be a great game to watch. I'm
really looking forward to it. I'm not sure this is
one that you want to mortgage the house on, though,
especially now with the line movement. I covered all these games.
The Week zero games. I had them covered well over
a month ago on Talk TV and at the time
it was three and a hook, and my take on
it was, listen, this is a rivalry game. These two
teams have played close games in the past. We've seen
a lot of close games in this Ireland game. And
with Iowa State, you know, they were the better team
last year. I kind of figured they played over their
heads while Kansas State underachieved. I think Kansas State might
have the better roster, the higher upside, but Iowa State's
got the veteran quarterback and rock opect They've got a
really solid defense.
Speaker 4: I like the coach.
Speaker 3: They're a team that they're a tough out Iowa State,
and I know they had lost two receivers to the
NFL last year.
Speaker 4: You know, people making a lot of that.
Speaker 3: I think people might be making too much of that,
you know, receivers. I don't know, can they grab a
couple receivers that can fit into the offense. I don't
think that's that tough of an ask. I think it's
probably more about the quarter back than it is about
the receivers. And Kansas State they didn't have it all
locked down on defense last season. We'll see if they've improved.
I liked Iowa State getting three in the hook. Now
that it's three, I'm not seeing a ton of value
on this. If you could still get three in a hook,
I'd say take Iowa State.
Speaker 2: Obviously, three is a key number.
Speaker 1: We talk about this all the time with football, and
if you're new to sports betting, I know we do
have a lot of new viewers probably this football season.
Unlike basketball, where every one or two points is kind
of random, football three and seven are the key numbers.
There's about a nine to ten percent chance case State
could win by exactly three points today, So that half
point is Jesse's talking about, is extremely important. Obviously seven
is very important, ten, fourteen, twenty one. In college football,
we see sometimes key numbers, and that's why it's so
important to shop around. Hey, if you want to try
on odds Logic, oddslogic dot com slash SM a free
seven day trial for premium live odds real time scores
might be a good time to do it now with
the football season. Here Oddslogic dot com slash sm for
that free trial, and Jesse we'll move on maybe to
week one, but any other thoughts in these week zero games,
anything else jump out to you today.
Speaker 3: Hi, there's one game that I am kind of interested in.
It's Western Kentucky and Sam Houston and Steve. You're about
the same age as me, so you probably remember in
the late eighties and early nineties, maybe the two coolest
guys on TV were named Maverick and mcgiver. And they've
got a quarterback named Maverick mcguiver, the two coolest guys.
Speaker 4: You combine that to make one name.
Speaker 3: They brought him over from Abilene Christian. They also brought
his offensive coordinator over to Western Kentucky. And this is
a Western Kentucky team that's known for having decent quarterbacks
and high flying offenses. The chap might remember Bailey z
Appy a couple of years ago throwing for over six
thousand yards at Western Kentucky. You know, write that name down,
Maverick mcgiver, because I think by the end of the year,
everybody's going to know that name.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Western's taking some money. They opened seven and a
half earlier. This summer. It's now up to that key
number of ten, another number I talked about, and as
you said, Case States dropped from three and a half
to three. We look at the next game on the board,
Fresno State Kansas fourteen and a half to fourteen, and
then Stanford Hawaii. It's gone from plus two and a
half to minus two and a half Hawaii. They're staying
under that key number of three. Even UNLV game thirty
and a half thirty one. I mean, these are all
key numbers today in college football. Would not be surprised,
folks to see one of these first five week zero
games land exactly on the closing line. Just shows the
importance once again to shopping around for line by The
lines nowadays are sharper than they've ever been.
Speaker 2: Welcome to everybody in the live chat.
Speaker 1: By the way, if you have a specific game you'd
like to ask about while we have jesse for college football,
especially week zero here, or even a look ahead game
to the next week, drop it in the chat. We
got a lot of new viewers in here as well,
new members Danko, Hawkins, richer Adu welcome new members and
don't forget you become a member here on waitter Talk
TV as well.
Speaker 2: Of course, it's free to subscribe, make sure you've done so.
Speaker 1: And also got some people in the chad and a
ball pepin asking will Yanni be here? He is, He's
waiting in the wings. He had to jump off, but
he jumped right back in and we'll get to the
steam report here in about five minutes, Jesse, some other
college football games, even looking at a Week one, you've
got your Colorado jersey on. What's another game you'd like
to talk about? Know the Buffalo's are on your radar.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a bit of a love hate relationship
with the Colorado fans. You know, last couple of years,
since Dion arrived in town. You know, the Colorado has
been an entertaining team. They've been a pretty good team. Unfortunately,
some of their fans think they're like a bona fide
national title contender every year, and I'm not sure that
I believe that. I think they're going to take a
step back this year. Losing Shadur and Travis Hunter, I mean,
maybe the two best players in the Big twelve last year,
and Shader dropping in the draft.
Speaker 4: I still think.
Speaker 3: Shadar was a pretty awesome quarterback when you consider the
offensive line he was playing behind and the fact that
he was getting sacked that much, and he still you know,
they still had success. He's still through for a ton
of yards. So yeah, do I think they're gonna miss
Shure and Travis Hunter? Absolutely, a lot of new pieces
on that team. Deon missed time all summer in all
camp with health problems and prayers up for Dion. I
hope he's going to be okay. But Georgia Tech is
just a well oiled machine. They're bringing back their starting quarterback,
They're bringing back their leading rusher.
Speaker 4: It's year three under Brent Key.
Speaker 3: Remember the last time you probably saw this Georgia Tech team,
they were taking Georgia to like eight overtimes in a marathon.
Could you've imagine Colorado taking Georgia to eight and overtimes?
Speaker 4: I can't.
Speaker 3: This is a difference of magnitude here. Georgia Tech is
the continuity, the coaching. They're ready to go. I don't
think Colorado is going to be ready to go. So
I feel pretty comfortable laying four points with Georgia Tech
at Colorado.
Speaker 1: Yeah, of course we're talking about the Dublin game, which
kicks off here in about fifty minutes. Georgia Tech played
Florida State in that game last year, pulled the big upset. Obviously,
Florida State became It was a very overrated team all
year long.
Speaker 3: But that was my third last year, Steve and I
gave out Georgia Tech on the money line. That's how
I kicked off my first year of college football videos
at Wayger Talk TV.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean so we'll see once again they carry
that momentum into Week one this year. Again it's another
big name program.
Speaker 2: A couple of minutes left here with Jesse Schule.
Speaker 1: Of course, Jesse does a great job with the daily
free play videos like he's talking about, he did all
the Week zero games. Make sure you subscribe and click
that bell as well here on Wayter Talk TV. You'll
know when Jesse posts free play videos throughout the week.
I'll also have a ton of college and pro football
videos this season, just like both of us did last year.
There's some great free content here on wager Talk TV
on a daily basis all football season long. Also some
free preseason videos up for today, and this is the
last Saturday of NFL preseason action and it's a huge Saturday.
In fact, I've got all three NFL Network games free
for you in a three for one triple play video
here on the channel, So check that out right after
this show for all three of your national TV games
in the NFL here on Saturday on Way to Talk
TV and Jesse on the way out. Let me get
your thoughts in another game. Looking ahead a little bit
to Week one, Auburn Baylor. What are you doing with
this one?
Speaker 3: I was a little shocked to see that Phil Steele
has Baylor winning the Big Twelve. And I know I've
heard him explain it. He says they've got a favorable schedule. Well,
their schedule isn't favorable in Week one. Auburn a bona
fide contender in the SEC. You know, Auburn didn't win
a lot of games last year, but a lot of
their losses were decided on the last play. They lost
a lot of games in unfortunate circumstances. They might be
one of the better teams with a losing record that
you'll see. And they went out and they got Georgia
Tech's wide receiver Singleton. They've got one of the best
wide receiving corps in the SEC. They've got a top
notch SEC offensive line, they got a lights out defense.
The problem with this Auburn team last year was Peyton
Thorn at quarterback was absolutely dreadful. So they go out
and get former five star recruit Jackson Arnold, who was
equally as terrible at Oklahoma last year.
Speaker 4: But Oklahoma was a train wreck.
Speaker 3: I mean, they had an inexperienced offensive line, They're a
decimated receiving corps. Their offensive coordinator had his head up
as you know what. So it was a chaotic situation
and he didn't look good. Does that mean you're going
to see the same Jackson Arnold here at Auburn? Not
necessarily the guy that I just spoke about, Haines King
for Georgia Tech. If you guys remember him at Texas
A and M with Jimbo Fisher, he looked like a bust.
Speaker 4: He goes to Georgia Tech. He's a gamer these days.
Speaker 3: And if Jackson Arnold can be even mediocre, Auburn's going
to be a force to be reckoned with this year.
And I just don't see Baylor competing with that kind
of talent. You know, a lot of people are high
on Taylor after they won six straight and last season,
but those wins came against lower tier Big twelve teams.
I'm not impressed. I think Sawyer Robertson could suffer a
bit of a sophomore jinx at quarterback for Baylor, and
I'm just not as high on Baylor as a lot
of people are.
Speaker 1: Jesse Schuil breaking down college hopefully he's been doing it
all summer long. Tons of free play videos up already
and more to come this season. And Jesse, you've got
a three for one week zero package. We talked a
little bit about the game's about to kick off, but
I've a feeling in your strongest place have yet to
come today in week zero? Tell us about that and
what else you got going on at wager Talk. Also
a free play everybody Dodgers padres. Jesse does baseball as well.
Free play Dodgers padres on your page.
Speaker 3: Also, Yeah, well, the three for one week zero package. Actually,
the most exciting part of that is probably the CFL play.
I hit a five percent CFL last night. I'm hitting
almost eighty percent for the season with CFL. Just been
slaying the CFL for over a dec now, number one
at wager Talk since I've arrived on the site number one. Obviously,
hitting eighty percent, I'd be number one this year. So
the CFL with a week zero pick in college football
and a baseball play, so you could grab that on
my page, But I want to answer CT Titan CT
any thoughts on UNLV under And I've seen there's been
a lot of steam going on money on the over.
That one opened at sixty two and a half. I
saw sixty seven and a half and I'm just not
sold that Dan Mullen's going to have that offense humming
in week zero. You know, no continuity on that team.
It's a team full of new players, new roster. There
could be a few hiccups, and sixty seven and a
half is a big number. I'm certainly leaning under in
that game.
Speaker 2: Sounds good.
Speaker 1: It's Jesse Schule, college Football Expert, Major League Baseball CFL,
three sports for one price. He's got a three for
one Saturday special right now at wager talk dot com.
We've got Teddy Covers coming up in a little bit.
Speaker 2: He's gonna break down football and baseball as well. Once gain.
Speaker 1: Any games you want to talk about for this Saturday,
drop them in the live chat right now as you're
watching here at eleven am Eastern Live on Saturdays, Last Call,
each and every weekend. We will keep this going through
the football season, but normally doing at the top of
the show. We buried it a little bit deeper here.
But let's bring on Yannie the Greek for the Steam Report.
And Yannie, it's a huge Saturday, to say the least.
I know you've been extra busy. Run with it here.
We got first college football game in about forty five minutes.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, sorry, brother, I've just been firing man. That
package that I have off for college football. Just got
two player prompts that I added to it for Kansas
State game, and just got another added game total. We're
just firing man, crushing so far these lines. Football's been
good over the last like two weeks, think number one
in pre season. So really really excited for the college
football season. Don't forget check the free plays. There's a
free plays pick pack page.
Speaker 4: Ups I've given.
Speaker 5: The last twenty free plays I've given are sixteen to
three and one. They're premium plays that I'm giving the subscribers.
I don't just throw out a free play. When I
have a you know, premium plays and I have some volume,
I'll just click to add it to the free picks page.
So it's something that's premium and sent to subscribers. But yeah,
just really really busy today. College football steep preseason WNBA
and Major League Baseball. Baseball in WNBA is really light
but heavy on college football in preseason.
Speaker 1: And ye, I mean I'm looking at your free picks
right now. You've got one in the Iowa State Kansas
State games. I guess we can make people go to
your page or if you want to throw out some
thoughts on that real quick.
Speaker 2: That goes about forty five minutes.
Speaker 5: I'm on the Kansas State side now. I know there's
sharp money on both ends of this. Like they were
looking for Iowa State at plus three and a half,
but I got down.
Speaker 4: On Kansas State early.
Speaker 5: I thought Kansas State's undervalued where Iowa State was my
over value team coming into the season. I talked about
it before. They won eleven games for the first time
ever in school history. I think they got a little
bit lucky. They just don't have anyone really to throw
the ball to yet, at least that I haven't seen
on paper. I just think they're going to regress a
little bit off of that, and I like Kansas State
in this first spot. I also think there's gonna be
some points scored because that Kansas State offense, I think
they're going to be able to score on on Iowa
State and that defense for Kansas State supposed to be improved,
but I think they'll probably give up a couple points themselves.
So take a look at the over also, that was
sharp got that over fifty one to fifty one and
a half. That's why you're looking at fifty two's there.
But there's also some public money on the over as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've been talking about, you know, key numbers with
point spreads for the new viewers. Three seven fifty one
is the most key total in this price range. There's
probably a two to three percent chance it lands exactly
on fifty one. And I did this game earlier this
week on Wait for Talk Today, and I'm also with you,
I'd like Kansas State in the over. Did a free
play video and I mentioned now that it's down to
minus three, I think there's some value with kse State.
It's also a quick revenge spot they played in late
November last year. They lost at Iowa State, but they
actually out gained it by a couple of yards per play.
They had a two to nothing turnover deficit. That was
the difference in that game. Otherwise, Iowa States not playing
in Arizona State in the Big twelve title game last year,
and then the total was forty eight and a half
forty nine. Even this week when I did the video
and did the show on Tuesday, as you said, it
has crossed that key number of fifty one. It's now
fifty one and a half. So there's no question the
sharpest money appears to be on the over in this
early kickoff in about forty minutes in Dublin, Ireland. Yanni,
y'all also have a free play on the game tonight
at seven thirty eastern Stanford, Hawaii. That's actually an early
afternoon game in Hawaii. That'd be one thirty Hawaiian time,
but it's seven thirty eastern, four to thirty year time,
and this will be a heavily bet game. It's the
latest game tonight. It's the Bailout special at seven thirty
eastern instead of midnight Eastern. Like we normally see Stanford
open to two and a half point road favorite. Now
they're a two and a half point dog, and we
do see money coming into Hawaii.
Speaker 2: I even see a.
Speaker 1: Bet online at minus one eleven now, so I would say,
if you like Hawaii, you probably play minus two and
a half before it hits three, or do you play
the money line here? What are your thoughts in this one?
Speaker 5: Well, I gave out. This was one of those bets
that we placed earlier in the summer, you know, like
a month out and I was on Hawaii. I released
the subscribers Hawaii money Line at minus one fifteen, so
we got a good number. And when you bet from
a position to strength, you have a lot of options.
That's why I always urge betters to pass when the
number moves significantly, because you're ultimately betting from a position
of weakness. You don't have much maneuvering that you can do.
But when you get out ahead of the market, then
you have all the power. Like right now I have
Hawaii money Line minus one fifteen, I can eat. Now
take Stanford on the money line at plus money to
limit my risk. I could take Stanford plus two and
a half. I could wait and see if I could
get Stanford plus three. So when you bet early and
you're able to get out ahead of the market, that
leaves you a lot of opportunities if later information changes.
And here's what I'm worried about the Hawaii a little bit.
That I know multiple betting syndicates are on the Hawaii side.
I see in the back end that we're getting one
sided Hawaii money from recreational betters already on Hawaii, and
yet we're not seeing that key number of three across
the board. I saw a couple credit shops pop three
and immediately it was bought up, like they immediately took
up the three on Stanford.
Speaker 4: That's what worries me a little bit.
Speaker 5: Again, we got a good number, We're going to get
closing line value and ultimately, you know, that's the secret
sauce to be profitable long term. But on this particular game,
that does worry me. Just following markets the way I do,
I should be looking at three with.
Speaker 1: Hawaii and Yahn. You know, I talk a lot about
book making theory. I've always said, especially nowadays, that people
are used to seeing, you know, all these ridiculous lines
minus one eighteen, minus one, eleven, minus one. You know,
it's like back of the day everything was minus one ten.
It probably would have confused people to move it. But
if I'm a sports book, especially in college or pro football,
Why would you ever move off at two and a half. Now,
why not just make this minus one twenty minus one
twenty five instead of giving a plus three, which you
know is going to get one sided. Like you said,
why not make Stanford plus two and a half plus
one oh five plus one ten if necessary to prevent
getting incided in this game on that key number.
Speaker 5: And that's exactly why I think some books will do that,
just not enough do because they copy the board. They're
not really back there thinking like you are.
Speaker 4: Next level.
Speaker 5: They're looking at the board and they see the sharper
outs at three, They're just going to paint their line
three as well, even if they haven't booked a bet.
But that is the approach they should take. And I
remember back when I w a runner and we were
burying them on totals so badly, on like NBA totals,
college basketball totals. That's exactly what they did because we
started middling them. They were moving so significantly they were
becoming easy middles. So then what they started doing was
instead of adjusting MGM mirage properties, they started adding vague
to the totals. If you remember that, So you'd look
at an NBA Game two eleven with the over minus
one forty while everyone else had two fifteen and a
half as their total, you know, because they just didn't
want they got tired of getting middled. So as a bookmaker,
I would take that exact approach, like you say, rather
than get middled, do that. But I think that's the
problem right now. There's too few books that have an opinion.
Instead they're just copying the screen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's so funny, said MGM.
Speaker 1: Because I was like, it was either Caesars or MGM
that did that, because ever the screen, it was a
black and gold book. It was one of the black
and gold books. There's either Caesars or MGM, and it
would just stay out because you would see a two
or three point different NBA totals, yes, and then you
dig deeper and you realize it's minus one forty. I've
always thought that's the smart way to do it. And
even if you're not getting action and you move to
three or you can get one sided, right, so you're
still hurting yourself. Very interesting bookmaking theory. One on one
discussion here with Yannie the Greek. Any action in baseball, WNBA.
Speaker 2: Any of the off sports today.
Speaker 5: Sure, I'll share that real quickly and real fast. When
I was typing right here, I'll just give it to
you guys. Now it's an off board added game over
forty nine and a half in Mercer. U see Davis
over fifty Mercer. You see Davis. The screen probably lit up.
I was betting as that's where I was sideways going on.
Speaker 1: But so hey, hey, Yannie, real quick on that. It
opened fifty one and a half. It's now fifty and
a half across the board. Here's what the sharp books
are doing. South point fifty and a half flat very
public book Pinnacle fifty and a half over minus one
forty two. Right now, whoa book maker? Fifty two over
minus one twenty.
Speaker 5: Oh my god, I swear to you I was typing it.
That's what was betting it. And we went over forty
nine and a half. And I even wrote the subscribers
fifty because I was like, I sold, like this is
going the fifty at least. But good lord man, those
extra board games, that's why I like the steam room
for them, because it's actionable information, you know what I mean,
like you gotta bet it at I mean time sensitive
information that you kind of got to bet quickly, but
I don't want to get out of here without giving
you guys some more information real quickly.
Speaker 2: WNBA.
Speaker 5: One side got steamed. That was it was Atlanta six
owaight Atlanta at minus three and a half that moved significantly.
MLB only two bets that stuck out. There's a lot
of manipulation, a lot of two way action, but I
try to narrow down as strong of confirmations as I
can up until eight am on Pacific time. And the
two that stuck out was Atlanta at plus one ten
and then the under eight and a half Colorado Pittsburgh.
So under eight and a half Colorado Pittsburgh nine fifty
eight Atlanta plus one ten. A couple of the NFL games,
I don't have to tell you things like Miami one
twenty six. You know they were minus three. Now they're
whatever they are. Those you could see yourself lines that were,
you know, plus one and there now minus six. You
know they got steened. But here's a couple that are
within like a half a point where the line is
now that I think some may have a problem reading
the board. One fifteen under thirty seven and a half
Indianapolis Cincinnati one seventeen all the way up to thirty eight,
over Denver, New Orleans one twenty under, thirty seven and
a half, Rams, Cleveland one twenty four, Green Bay minus
one all the way to two and a half, one
twenty under, thirty eight, Buffalo, Tampa, and then Vegas from
plus one to minus one. So those are some of
the later stuff that I saw later in the week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we have some lot today.
Speaker 5: We're getting out football throughout the entire.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a lot of early NFL preseason. I mean, the
Ravens are not my Washington Commanders play here in about
thirty minutes at noon Eastern, and we've seen some buyback
just coming on the Commanders that had gone from two
and a half to three and a half. Now they're
back down to plus three. That's probably a lot of
buy back on a key number there. And then you
mentioned that the Miami game. I did a triple play
video for the three NFL Network games, and of the three,
I kind of like Miami the best. They were minus
six yesterday when I did the video. They're now six
and a half. They're gonna play their starters for a
good chunk of the first half Jacksonville sitting everyone joint
practices this week. Apparently the aggressive Dolphin defense was wreaking
havoc on the Jags. I like the under thirty eight
and a half, and that's up to thirty nine and
a half now, so I think there's a little bit
of value with the under in that game. Also, the
other game, the early game at one Eastern NFL Network
at Cleveland Browns. They briefly opened as a two and
a half point favorite this week. They were eight and
a half yesterday when I did the video. They're playing
their guys the whole first half. The Rams aren't expected
to do much. It's now minus ten, which might be
the biggest preseason line I've seen in recent years. Do
you remember, I mean, maybe we have seen a double
digit preseason line. Pretty crazy.
Speaker 5: I don't remember that.
Speaker 2: I don't, I really don't.
Speaker 5: Again, we've seen so many games, it's hard to remember,
but I think I would remember a.
Speaker 4: Double digit favorite in preseason. That's just unheard of.
Speaker 2: And it's hard.
Speaker 5: This is what they're taking it seriously, and the other
wasn't taking it seriously. It was usually like a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Right, And that's what's tricky here is like you can't
make a case for the Rams and McVeigh by the way,
he's played alright this preseason, but coming in this year
he had one of the worst point spread records of
any head coach in the preseason. It's also the Browns
only home game. They're two and zero on the road
and this is their only home game, which I think
it's a sneaky angle going forward with this three week format,
is that you can make an argument teams and only
have the one home game. Probably put a little more
effort into it, but you have very one sided with Cleveland.
You know, at eight and a half, I was like,
not much value. They got to win by ten or more.
Now they got to win by like fourteen or more probably,
or at least eleven or more to have a chance.
The other National TV game, by the way, at four
Eastern is green Bay Seattle. Seahawks went from minus one
to plus three. Green Bay's a three point favorite. Seattle
sitting everybody, no starters. Milroe, the rookie from Alabama's going
to play the entire game at quarterback, so that might
be fun to watch. Also today, but Jannie the Creek
on the way out find him at wager talk dot
com and you can also get the Steam Room and
he is hust today with the Steam Report. Check him
out for more information on this page at wager talk
dot com.
Speaker 2: And Yanni's also.
Speaker 1: On live every weekday at noon eastern right here Monday
through Friday on wager Talk TV on wager Talk Today.
So you get him at eleven am Eastern here on
Saturday's noon eastern live Monday through Friday doing the Steam Report,
where he lets you know where the money's coming, where
the syndicates are going, and how you should attack the
board on a daily basis. All right, let's keep it
rolling here, and speaking of the NFL preseason, let's bring
in Teddy Covers. Teddy does as well as the NFL
as anybody on his season Wins Report, of course, is
still on his page. Not too late to get that
a couple of weeks away from the start of the NFL. Teddy,
we'll stick with the NFL. We've gotch you. We haven't
talked a lot about it today. I'm sure you would
remember better than any of us. But Cleveland's now ten
minus a dollar twenty at some spots, looks like it
might hit ten and a half. That's as about as
big of a preseason favorite as I can remember seeing
what about you?
Speaker 6: So I moved to Vegas in nineteen ninety eight, and
I don't think I've ever seen a double.
Speaker 1: As your favorite, even double digits, because I don't remember either.
Speaker 6: That's why there is that comes to mind, and that's
the kind of thing that you you probably remember. But
that said, we all know McVeigh doesn't care. All right,
I don't even care a little bit. That being said,
the Rams are they five?
Speaker 2: And oh last five? Yeah? They've played well this year,
that's for sure. Last year was just as good.
Speaker 6: Yeah, you know it's TETs and Benet's made other people
a whole lot of money.
Speaker 2: I got the numbers right here, and I know I
can't find it. And while you pull this up to
I'll chime.
Speaker 1: And you know, everyone thinks, you know, other than Harbal
McDermott was the second best preseason coach. He hasn't done
much the last couple of years. Just got embarrassed by
Chicago and National TV Sunday Night. I didn't care about
that game. These coaches trends, as you know, were such
a small sample. I don't Sometimes maybe there's just some
random variants built in there. There's one years different than
the next as well.
Speaker 2: So when you.
Speaker 6: Find a coach that doesn't care, and there's one that
stands out other than McVeigh, and that's dan Quinn for Washington,
you know and previously right, Uh yeah, rahee, Marris doesn't
care a whole lot either, exactly know.
Speaker 2: About say, when Quinn was at Atlanta. That's when that
all started though, But that.
Speaker 6: Hasn't changed in Washington, correct, Rahe, Marris hasn't hasn't carried
a whole lot either with the with the Falcons. You know,
I'm gonna date myself. But the original bet against Marle Vegas.
You bet against marve Lee.
Speaker 1: There we go a man another William of Mary man,
dan Quinn and Marv Levy both William and Mary coaches,
so I know them well. McDermott a William and Mary guy.
How crazy is that?
Speaker 2: That's odd?
Speaker 6: Maybe it's something about William and Mary because I haven't
seen you really try hard for any preseason games.
Speaker 2: No, yeah, it's true. I've got the Marv Levy mindset.
Speaker 6: Marv Levy was the ultimate bet against in August. He
didn't care at all. Dan Quinn follows in that mcfaye
follows him.
Speaker 2: That as well.
Speaker 6: But what's happened in the betting marketplace now, Number one,
there's no buyback.
Speaker 2: That's why we're seeing the Lions gets seemed to ten.
You know.
Speaker 6: Sometimes you'll see the buy back when it gets to
three and a half, go buy it back to three
and lock in across the key number. But for a
lot of these games, there's just one sided action, you know,
and then when the one side of the action, the Lions.
Speaker 2: Go through the roof.
Speaker 6: But a lot of the bet ons, and this is
a key point, we have the the Harball is a
good preseason coach, uh and uh McDermott a good preseason coach,
and then the quarterback rotations change and the backup quarterback
position isn't as good and then all of a sudden,
well harbors not as much of a bet on.
Speaker 2: Mcdermoth's not as much of a bet on.
Speaker 6: So at this late stage of my you know, NFL
preseason handicapping career, I'm starting to think that the coaches
matter less. The coaches, or this is the betta gone
coach matters less than because if the quarterback rotation works,
if if someone can come in a thirst tree, you
can come come in and run the offense. You'll get
a team like the Giants this year that, you know,
not like the ball had any kind of reputation for
covering points breads or track record recovering points breads. In August,
you get the right court rotation, you got veterans and
going in the second half with something to prove against
third and fourth string defenders, and all of a sudden
you got a preseason juggernaut.
Speaker 2: So like all that.
Speaker 6: Success from the Bills came and they had a great backups.
Same thing with Baltimore. They had great backups and third
string quarterbacks veteran guys. And that's not a sart of
the case in twenty twenty five, not this year.
Speaker 1: I totally agree with you. I think if you really,
I know you big into quotes and whatnot. I mean,
if you look at all these coaches, very few of
them say we're coming out here trying to win. You know,
there might be guys that say we're sitting our starters
or we're playing our starters. And also maybe if you're
coming off a really bad showing or you're back at home,
maybe they want to win a little bit more. But
you're exactly right. These games are decided mostly in the
second half with third stringers and some of its random variants.
But when you have a Tommy Devita going seventeen for
twenty like you did on Thursday night last night, you know.
Speaker 6: We're counting Kansas City dominated in Chicago in that bag,
but not in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and that's really what makes the difference. So
even once again has a pretty good quarterback rotation and
they are playing their starters longer.
Speaker 2: But ten is crazy.
Speaker 1: Does remind me though, that Patriot Giant game the other night,
because I did a video for that. New England was
six and a half and I said, Giants have the edge,
but you know, does New England if they get to seven,
are they worth a look? They got blown out by
over thirty points, so we could see that happen again.
But you're definitely laying a premium now. By the way,
that line up to ten minus a dollar nineteen at
Pinnacle and it looks like it might hit a ten
and a half year history being made on the final
NFL preseason Saturday this summer, Teddy, any other things in
the NFL will jump over to some college football, some baseball,
with anything else jump out to you. It's a huge
car today. A lot of these games start early.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So I mean obviously that the Baltimore Washington is interesting.
I mean I had a big bet against Baltimore last week,
going hardball's preseason track record is not and from years
past is not the modern era. And then Dallas went
out and laid a big egg Jeah.
Speaker 2: I was surprised.
Speaker 1: I did a video on that, Teddy, I thought Dallas.
I kind of started liking Dallas as well at home
with the rookie coach.
Speaker 2: Surprised by that as well. Milton played much better yesterday.
Speaker 6: But you know, Baltimore is not a team uncomfortable laying
a field goal with in the preseason, and Washington's is
better against as it gets so, but we're seeing money
for Baltimore right now. Houston Detroit's an interesting game. That's
another one that starts here in what about ninety minutes. Yep,
the joint practices. A lot of times when you have success,
you dominated the joint practic session. You're the most physical team.
You end up that ends up hurting you for the game.
The coach is like, all right, you guys have already
proven everything. The other team that got embarrassed on the
practice field comes in with a little bit of chip
on their shoulder. The other coach whose team got embarrassed
on the practice field says, you know, I want to
see my guys do something. So Detroit and Houston played
a really tough practice the other day, a couple of them,
and the reports coming out of those practices were boys,
the defense were really good. We've getting a lot of
under money in that game so far, and a preseason
that's been filled with overs.
Speaker 2: So I think that's telling us something as well. Yeah,
I love where you're going with that.
Speaker 1: It seems to me like a lot of these preseason
games this year they've been joint practices that week, And
I mentioned that earlier when Yanni was on with the
Jacksonville Miami game. So that worries me a little bit
about my Dolphins side, because.
Speaker 2: I do lean Miami.
Speaker 1: They're going to play their starters Jacksonville sitting everybody, and
the reports are that the Dolphins were pretty aggressive in
those practices and gave the Jags some problems, and now
the Jags backups are going to be in I still
like the under there. Actually that's gone from thirty eight
and a half up to thirty nine and a half.
I thought there's a little bit of value your take
on the totals here. As we kind of round on
in the NFL. We talked a couple of weeks ago,
when you are on after week one about what was
it a fourteen and two start, the first Hall of
Fame through week one on the overs, your thoughts and
over unders going forward with this three week format the
last couple of weeks now.
Speaker 6: So I talked about it right at the top of
the NFL Opening line report.
Speaker 2: You know that's live. Of course every Monday we go
through the open.
Speaker 6: For the week, game by game, talk about what just happened,
where the money you expect the money to move?
Speaker 2: It's much watch TV.
Speaker 6: It's the best show I do, but every live every Monday,
eight am Pacific, eleven am on the East Coast. But
I talked about how the fourteen and two to the
overs and week one wasn't likely to continue and I
expected week two to be much closer to fifty to fifty,
and it was Week two was you know, eight and seven,
And then how there was one game that landed right
in the middle, so it could have been seven and eight, eight, seven,
whatever it was. It was not a scenario where the
overs went nuts. And preseason total I'm not gonna say
total of the prese totals of random, but red zone
efficiency is not something we tend to see in August,
and the red zone efficiency this year has been surprisingly good.
Speaker 2: We've also seen in preseason. You see it every year.
Speaker 6: You know you're gonna get and I'll tell you what
you're gonna see a handful of these Week one where
a non offensive score makes a big difference side or total.
We've seen a ton of non offensive scores in the preseason,
where it's a punt return touchdown, a kick return touchdown,
interce after a return touchdown.
Speaker 2: We've seen all of them. We see a bunch of
them in August.
Speaker 6: Those can be points spread killers, those can be total
killers when you have honders. You know, it's hard to
give in a in a league where the lines are
tight like they are in the NFL, like the aren
all leagues, but you know when you win all of
a sudden you get a cheap non offensive TD, you
know it can put a crimp in your plans in
a hurry, so be aware that the non offsive non
offensive touchdowns, the special teams, and the special team is
setting up touchdowns. You'll see much more of that in August.
In week one, week two in college football, you see
a bunch at the beginning and much less as the
season progresses. That tends to help deflate some of the scoring.
But you could seem a favorite of that early on.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the NFL preseason winds down today. There are
no more games after this setter. We got ten of
them and then the NFL preseason is finite. Before we
get to some baseball, we're gonna talk Dodgers Padres. If
you have any other baseball games in the live chat,
please drop him now. Teddy will get to him in
a moment. Any thoughts here on Week zero college football
obviously a huge game kicking off in about twenty five minutes,
and a few other games on the board as well.
Your UNLV running Rebels, I believe is one of them.
Speaker 6: Yeah, so I've got one playoff for the clients right
now on my page of Dot Buzz Backslash TC. And
there wasn't a whole lot else I was close with.
I missed the move on Hawaii. All right, if I'd
had Hawaii at any kind of plus price, I'd have
been interested. Hawaii laying two and a half, I was
no longer interested, so I didn't get there. So that
was a lean, but the line got me out of there.
That's for you and U and LV is a really
interesting team because you know, they lost a ton from
our the best Last year was the best Rebels team
I've seen in my time in Las Vegas. They got
I moved here in ninety eight and last year's team
was was that good? And obviously new head coach, a
bunch of transfers coming in, lots of questions about the
Rebels under Land thirty in the opener against you know
SDS Idaho states the reports I'm reading, Yes, the continuity
is necessarily there, but the talent is still there. Malin
hit the transfer portal pretty hard. And there's a chance
this Rebels team, maybe everybody is good, if not better
than last year's squad. I'm not looking to step in
front of them.
Speaker 2: I'm really not.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's been pretty one side of that opened as
lows twenty four and a half twenty five, it's up
to thirty and a half now, thirty one, and then
we've also seen money coming on the total sixty four
and a half up to sixty six juiced over and
now some of the sharper books.
Speaker 6: And definitely like the reason, you're gonna see bigger moves
on extra board games and added board games. The limits
are lower and there's no take back. You know, you
see the line start to go and they go. You know,
when you talk about regular games, it takes a lot
more to move the number, and there's a much bigger
marketplace and the added or an extra game marketplace, there's
there's not a whole lot of variance.
Speaker 1: Right, And that's what we see in the NFL preseason.
It's it's a softer market, it's a thinner market. The
volume is less, the limits are lower. So it's the
added board today is the equivalent of the NFL preseason basically,
you know what, we're getting the same thing with the
line moves there. Titan CT, one of our loyal longtime
viewers on the way out here real quick is asking
if you see anything in that Seattle Green Bay game
or tonight's game Chargers Niners. I touched on the Packers earlier.
They are a three point favorite, Seattle sitting all their
starters and Milroae, the third round draft pick out of Alabama,
play the entire game. But he's a Mobiles quarterback, Teddy,
And this is something you and I have talked about
over the years. They can recavoc in the second half
as well. That's kind of lean green Bay. But that
gives me some concern in that one. Or see let
me know if you see think Chargers Niners as well.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and it's like the Packer, Like the Packers are saying,
but we're bet on this week. I don't there's anything
positive about green Bay. The markets moved, the markets knee jerk, oh,
Seattle sitting starters, roads.
Speaker 2: Going the whole way. Boom. Let's make green Bay three.
Speaker 6: But for me to lay more than two in a
preseason game, it's one of my.
Speaker 2: Rules for August.
Speaker 6: I need bet on and bet against, and they don't
have bet on Foray.
Speaker 2: I really don't when it comes to the Chargers Niners.
Speaker 6: The Niners have had a bad August all right, injury wise.
I don't know that I've read that there's another team
that's more banged up already, and this is the team
who's last you know, last year was an injury riddle disaster.
Speaker 2: The injury bug hasn't gone away for san fran.
Speaker 6: That's why the charges are laying because as long as
the Chargers have this great QB rotation is I like
Harbo cares all that much about this win or loss.
But san fran is In has been in a world
of hurt injury wise, and and you know they're they're
not playing anybody that's front line. That's why not a
game I got involved. Not a game I was close
getting involved. Who's seen under money in that game? And
I wouldn't disagree conceptually.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean realistically, a lot of the coaches are
not playing guys today and they're trying to figure out
their their third string roster spots for the final cuts.
So there's a lot of randomness here. This is truly
the final week of the preseason, Final day for good reason.
Speaker 2: The NFL pepin. Yeah, what's that? I said, I only
bet one today.
Speaker 6: You know, I got one for the clients, and and
I put it out last night. I think the line
was going to move one way, and the line moved.
Speaker 2: The other way this morning, so I actually got a
little bit the worst of the.
Speaker 1: Good we still value with Hey's got an NFL preseason
and a Week zero college football best bet.
Speaker 2: Both at Wait for Talk dot Com.
Speaker 1: Annabel Peppin's like Steve, please don't leave out MLB predictions,
We're not, Annabel. We're finishing off the show here with
some MLB. Let's talk Dodgers, Padres, Teddy, We've talked about
these teams a few weeks ago when I last saw you.
You know, Yankees have been in a role for several
months to the negative. Everyone's waiting for them to kind
of turn things around. If they do, maybe not. But
the Dodgers still just five and five their last ten.
They've been a very mediucre team over the past month.
What is your take on this one, Dodgers, Padres.
Speaker 6: So, handicappers are not politicians, plat out. I've been pumping
up the we can flip flop, and there are times
we're supposed to flip flop. Your politiciany flip flop.
Speaker 2: They yell at you.
Speaker 6: You know you're a handicapper. You flip flop, your flip
flopping based on current info, and you don't like to
flip flop and be wrong. But this slump for the
Dodgers is not a short term thing.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 6: It's been a couple of months and when you look
at the fundamental structural issues with the team with the
highest payroll in baseball, you don't expect to see those,
and they're all over the place. For the Dodgers, all right,
lineup is top heavy, right the bottom half of the
order isn't doing anything right now, and of course that
has a lot to do with some of the injury
problems that they've had. Certainly next months, he being hurt
as matters. It's not like, you know, Enrique Hernandez is hurting,
Tommy Edmund's hurt, and Kim is hurt and Betts isn't
hitting particularly well. So the lineup, you know, you got
Freeman and Otani and then oh, you know another issue
for the Dodgers that can is ongoing again. We look
at their bullpen and you know, Tanner Scott's on the IL,
and Kirby Yates is on the island, Michael Cole pitch
is on the island, Brock Stewart's on the IL, and
the late innings have been a problem for Dave Robertson company.
So the Dodgers certainly have a starting pitching edge today.
You know Glass Now, since coming off the aisle, he's
been good. You know, the guy's ace level, and Cortes
is not. Cortez faced his team last week and give
up three first inning home runs.
Speaker 2: And then he pitched okay after that. But from a
starting pitching standpoint, I understand why the Dodgers are favored.
But Padres have gotten great production from you know, the trade.
Speaker 6: The guy who got the trade, Jed Loreano, and arn
and Furman, you know, are all hitting all right. The
pitchers and the bullpen that they were able to put together.
This is the best bullpen in baseball right now, and
that matters in tight games, in late innings, which is
exactly what we expect.
Speaker 2: This game to be.
Speaker 6: So, you know, last night's game one run decision. Two
of the three games last weekend one run decision. Dodgers
swept San Diego last week. I wouldn't be surprised if
the Podres get the second of a potential sweep. Went
under our price tonight. The San Diego were passed for
this better. I've been pumping the Dodgers all year. I'm
concerned about the dog This is not short term anymore.
This is longer term for the Dodger. There's been months
that they've played subpar baseball, and podres are certainly trending
in the right direction.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's probably the biggest National League match up today
on Saturday.
Speaker 2: The biggest one the American League is Red Sox and Yankees.
Speaker 1: We got Brian Jordan also Tessey Betts both asking about
that game. And boy does this transition nicely to that one, right,
because the Yankees are the American League version of the
Dodgers fast start below five hundred of the past month. Also,
so I'm very curious to take not only this game,
but the Yankees as well going forward.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I was debating yesterday's side total side total Red
Sox and Yankees ended up taking the total over in
a one nothing game, oops, instead of the side at
the nice plus price for Boston. I should have played
them both, I guess, or I should have only played
the water what I was I was really surprised that
I will. But but when you got you have two
pitchers who hadn't been pitching well who once they started,
once they started mowing down batters, it was all of
a sudden, the ace against ace and in a playoff,
you know, atmosphere and uh once, the once.
Speaker 2: About the fourth inning was nothing. Nothing. I'm like, this
is pretty well dead. And it was obviously that being said,
you know, you got crotch It on the mound. You know,
I've heard to call him crotch It. It's just a
better name. Uh uh.
Speaker 6: But and Warren's pitched well at home, all right, and certainly,
but right now I think the Red Sox are the
better team right now. So I can only look at
the Boston side. They've already won the two in this series.
And I know, Yankee, you're supposed to bounce back today.
Speaker 2: It's a Boston or passer me.
Speaker 1: What jumps out to me about both the Yankees and
the Dodgers. Yankees ten games above five hundred, so for
the season, they're two games below against winning teams. You
look at the Dodgers over all this season, the Dodgers
are now seventeen games up over five hundred. They're twenty
nine and twenty nine against winning teams. So you know,
that's something else that jumps out to me a little
bit part of the reason they might not be the
real deal come postseason.
Speaker 2: What was LA two to one and a lot of
spots when.
Speaker 1: The season began, could tie your money up for like
nine months to get a two to one return if
they win. The whole thing just shows why you can't
make those type of future bets, Teddy, anything else catch
your eye or just big picture, I mean, who do
you think are some play on teams maybe going into
September and let betters know how you attack baseball over
this final month and a half of the regular season.
The least I've always said that, you know, I take
a little bit of a contrarian approach in September. Some
teams that are early out of the race, they don't
just toss the towel, are calling up young guys who
are making a really hard effort, you know, to try
to make the roster next year. It's a different type
of handicap coming up.
Speaker 6: Yes, September's about current form, you know, really from here
once you get to call it. But even now, you
know you'll find elite teams that are not playing great baseball.
And what I love, I mean, if everything's a month
to ride streaks again, football sucks all the oxygen out
of the baseball betty marketplace, all right, So if you're
paying attention to MLB and riding some of these streaks.
You know, you find teams go on slumps when their
favorites every day, and you find teams go on winning
streaks when they're dogs every day. And if you're paying attention,
you can make money. I like September baseball. I know
that there's a ton of other stuff going on and
it often gets overlooked, but I found late season MLB
can sometimes be a real profit center or for my
clients and I and I'm hoping this year will be
more of the same.
Speaker 1: I think it makes a lot of sense because you know,
streaks later in the year makes sense as well because
the betting the market are still setting every thing based
one hundred and thirty hundred and forty games. Dodgers and
Yankees a perfect example, right, Like if you'd say, hey, look,
you know New York is three four games below five
hundred the last month, You're like, guy, they're a mediocre team.
But then you see they're up ten for the season.
Still the Dodgers are seventeen above five hundred. They've been
a below five hundred team over the past month or so,
so I think that's another reason it works. It makes
a lot of sense. And then also be careful with teams.
You know that a perennial good that are out of
the race maybe and they start to have a little
bit of a losing streak in September.
Speaker 2: They might toss the towel.
Speaker 1: So that's why momentum makes a lot of sense, good
and bad in the month of September. And Teddy is
a very good late season baseball capper. Last year, I
think I was fifty seven and twenty eight to finish
the past final few months of baseball. So I'm with
you baseball as you kind of you know, one play
a day, boom boom, we find those spots of the
month of September and into the playoffs. Just because football's
here doesn't mean baseball isn't very profitable as well. Teddy,
you've got your season wins reports still up. You've got
a fantastic special. Tell us about it? What is it
all for? Seven to seven seven Lucky Seven's Sure.
Speaker 6: Season Win Report. Part one came out in July. Part
two comes out this coming Wednesday, specific time. So we're
gonna have at least one additional release, potentially two, but
we're definitely gonna have one and potentially a second one.
But you can get the entire package right now on
my page WT buzz backslast TC. The best value right
now is clearly the seven seven seven. Look, if you
guys want to partner up, I understand buying picks is
not for everyone. I get it, But for some people
it's a very reasonable and potentially profitable thing to consider.
And if you guys want to partner up this football season,
me and you all right, we're talking MLB every play
every day through the end of the World Series. We're
talking NBA every play every day, College hoops every play
every day, College football every play every day, and of
course the NFL is the betting king. This is all
five percent pick tickets included. There's nothing more to buy.
There's no bait and switch nonsense on hundred and seventy seven bucks.
It's a commitment, but I expect to make money. Check
it out WTT, buzz backslash TC. Let's partner up for
the next couple of months and see.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, that's almost an instant fifty percent discount I
would have normally cost to get the rest of twenty
twenty five from Teddy just seven to seventy seven for
the next four plus months. Fantastic golfer, every play, every
day from a veteran handicapper like me, started back in
the nineteen nineties. Doing this four decades that sounds even
more impressive, makes it sound even older. That's Teddy Covers
and don't forget Opening Line Report eleven am Eastern eight
am Pacific, Live, Monday. I want to check it out
here on Wait to Talk TV, Right, Teddy, it's a
muscle watch.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I just want to say this Monday is the only
show between now and Super Bowl where we're not going
to go through every game on the board because there's
no games this coming week. So I'm gonna do eight
divisional previus Bang Bang Bang, raphid fire and then answer
all your questions.
Speaker 2: So please join us live.
Speaker 1: On Monday, and once again he takes live questions. That's you,
yet another reason to watch these shows live whenever possible,
because if you ask a question, we will try to
answer it.
Speaker 2: But hey, if you're catchers on the replay.
Speaker 1: Opening Line Report is archive twenty four to seven afterwards
Last Call Wager Talk Today as well, and you also
can comment below because we do truly read the comments
and reply back here on wager Talk TV. Teddy, have
a great weekend and we will see you on Monday
at eleven am Eastern on Opening Line report here on
wager Talk TV.
Speaker 2: Hey, that'll do it.
Speaker 1: Nice show today, Jesse Schule, Janni the Greek Teddy covers
on once again. Steve Merrill fill it in for Aerial
left scene. She'll be back next week. I believe r.
Kelly Stewart will be here as the football season approaches.
Week zero is here, Week one next week with Labor
Day weekend, and then the NFL regular season the week
after that. Don't forget we also have another special offer
going this weekend. Right now, it's not too late to
get the rest of August for free. When you sign
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There is no promo code required. Every day you get
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Why not buy it now and get the rest of
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Speaker 2: Good luck this weekend.