WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.200 --> 00:00:03.200 Latest interview of Elon Musk. What's the reason to put 2 00:00:03.200 --> 00:00:09.400 them in face? Well, the availability of energy is the issue. 3 00:00:10.359 --> 00:00:15.000 So I mean, if you look at electrical output outside 4 00:00:15.039 --> 00:00:17.719 of China, everywhere outside of China, it's more or less flat. 5 00:00:17.800 --> 00:00:20.760 It's where you know, maybe slide increase, but for pretty 6 00:00:20.800 --> 00:00:24.519 much flat. China has a rapid increase in electrical output. 7 00:00:24.640 --> 00:00:26.679 But if you're putting data centers of work except China, 8 00:00:26.800 --> 00:00:30.079 where you're gonna get your electricity, especially as you scale, 9 00:00:30.679 --> 00:00:33.880 the output of chips is growing pretty much exponentially, but 10 00:00:34.039 --> 00:00:36.920 the output of electricity is flat. So how are you 11 00:00:36.920 --> 00:00:40.479 going to tell them what chips are? You know, magical 12 00:00:40.520 --> 00:00:43.320 power sources, magical electricity ferries. 13 00:00:43.159 --> 00:00:46.079 I mean your famous, your famous epic fan of solar 14 00:00:46.679 --> 00:00:48.920 one terra a lot of solar power. So with the 15 00:00:48.960 --> 00:00:51.399 twenty five percent computed factor, like four terrawats of solar panels, 16 00:00:51.439 --> 00:00:52.399 it's like one percent of the. 17 00:00:52.439 --> 00:00:54.560 Land area of the United States. 18 00:00:54.679 --> 00:00:56.439 And that's like far in this You're in the singularity 19 00:00:56.439 --> 00:00:58.479 when we've got one tarrat wat of data centers, right, 20 00:00:59.479 --> 00:01:01.039 So what are you running out of? 21 00:01:01.039 --> 00:01:04.359 Exactly? How far into the singularity are you? You tell me? Yeah, 22 00:01:04.400 --> 00:01:06.760 exactly so I think I think we'll find we're in 23 00:01:06.799 --> 00:01:08.719 the singularity and like, okay, let's look a long way 24 00:01:08.719 --> 00:01:08.959 you go. 25 00:01:10.120 --> 00:01:12.239 But is this like a is the plan to like 26 00:01:12.319 --> 00:01:14.719 put it in the space after we will covered Nevada 27 00:01:14.760 --> 00:01:15.599 and solar panels. 28 00:01:15.680 --> 00:01:17.719 I think it's pretty hard to cover about sol panels. 29 00:01:17.719 --> 00:01:19.760 You have to get like permits from Like the proach 30 00:01:19.840 --> 00:01:20.439 for try. 31 00:01:20.319 --> 00:01:23.680 Getting the pomots for that space is really it's really 32 00:01:23.799 --> 00:01:26.480 regulatory play. It's like hard harder to build on land 33 00:01:26.480 --> 00:01:27.239 than it is in space. 34 00:01:27.640 --> 00:01:31.359 It's harder to scale on the ground than it is 35 00:01:31.400 --> 00:01:36.480 to scale in space. But also the the you're going 36 00:01:36.519 --> 00:01:41.280 to get about five times the effectiveness of sold panels 37 00:01:41.280 --> 00:01:43.599 in space versus the ground, and you don't need batteries. 38 00:01:45.439 --> 00:01:47.359 I almost wore my other shirt, which says it's always 39 00:01:47.359 --> 00:01:54.840 sunny in space, which it is so because you don't 40 00:01:54.840 --> 00:02:00.519 have a day night cycle or seasonality clouds, or or 41 00:02:00.519 --> 00:02:06.239 an atmosphere in space. Because the atmosphere alone, we're still 42 00:02:06.439 --> 00:02:11.800 about a thirty percent loss of energy. So you're can 43 00:02:12.400 --> 00:02:15.319 any given soul panels can do about five times more 44 00:02:15.599 --> 00:02:18.240 powering space than on the ground, and you avoid the 45 00:02:18.280 --> 00:02:20.159 cost of having batteries to carry you through the night. 46 00:02:22.400 --> 00:02:25.680 So it's actually much cheaper to do in space, and 47 00:02:26.240 --> 00:02:30.800 my prediction is that it will be by far the 48 00:02:30.879 --> 00:02:34.719 cheapest place to put AI will be space and thirty 49 00:02:34.759 --> 00:02:37.240 six months or less, maybe thirty thursday months less than 50 00:02:37.240 --> 00:02:37.840 thirty six months. 51 00:02:38.199 --> 00:02:40.400 How do you service GPUs as they fail, which happens 52 00:02:40.439 --> 00:02:43.960 quite often in training, Actually it. 53 00:02:45.039 --> 00:02:48.280 Depends on how recent the GPUs are that arrived. I mean, 54 00:02:48.759 --> 00:02:51.479 at this point we find our gps to be quite reliable. 55 00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:54.400 There's infant mortality which you can obviously iron out on 56 00:02:54.400 --> 00:02:56.680 the ground, so you can just run them on the 57 00:02:56.680 --> 00:02:59.400 ground and confirm that you don't have infort mortality with 58 00:02:59.400 --> 00:03:02.000 what the GPU. But once they once they start working, 59 00:03:02.000 --> 00:03:05.560 their actual reliability and once they start working and you're 60 00:03:05.560 --> 00:03:09.120 past the initial you know, debug cycle of video or whatever, 61 00:03:09.759 --> 00:03:13.199 or whoever's making the trips could be Tesla Tesla AI 62 00:03:14.080 --> 00:03:16.159 six trips or something like that, or could be you know, 63 00:03:17.080 --> 00:03:22.240 TPUs or trainings or whatever the rivalry is. Actually they're 64 00:03:22.280 --> 00:03:28.400 quite reliable past certain point. So I don't think I 65 00:03:28.439 --> 00:03:30.800 don't think you need that. The servicing thing is an issue, 66 00:03:32.080 --> 00:03:36.639 but you can mark my words, uh in thirty six months, 67 00:03:37.120 --> 00:03:41.639 but probably closer to thirty months. The most economically compelling 68 00:03:41.639 --> 00:03:44.520 place to put AI will be space, and then and 69 00:03:44.680 --> 00:03:47.479 and and then it will get from it'll it'll then' 70 00:03:47.520 --> 00:03:51.199 forget like ridiculously better to be in space. And then 71 00:03:51.240 --> 00:03:54.240 the scaling. The only place you can really scale is space. 72 00:03:56.039 --> 00:03:58.400 You know, once you start thinking in terms of what 73 00:03:58.520 --> 00:04:01.520 percentage of the Sun's power are you, honestly you realize 74 00:04:01.560 --> 00:04:05.319 you have to go to space. You can't scale very 75 00:04:05.400 --> 00:04:08.240 very much on Earth, but by very much, to be clear, 76 00:04:08.319 --> 00:04:12.960 you're talking like terro arts. Yeah, well all of the 77 00:04:13.039 --> 00:04:18.600 United States currently uses only half a terrawork power on average, right, 78 00:04:18.680 --> 00:04:20.879 so you know, if you say a terror work, that 79 00:04:20.920 --> 00:04:23.160 would be twice as much electricity as the United States 80 00:04:23.199 --> 00:04:26.480 currently consumes. So that's quite a lot. And can you 81 00:04:26.480 --> 00:04:30.279 imagine building that many data centers, that many power plants. 82 00:04:31.199 --> 00:04:34.800 It's like those who have lived in software land don't 83 00:04:34.959 --> 00:04:39.120 realize that they're about to have a hard lesson in hardware. 84 00:04:40.399 --> 00:04:45.199 That there's there's it's actually very difficult to build power plants. 85 00:04:45.680 --> 00:04:47.279 And and then you don't need just need you need 86 00:04:47.319 --> 00:04:49.759 power plants, you need all of the electrical equipment, need 87 00:04:49.800 --> 00:04:53.839 that the electrical transformers to run the transformers, the transformers. 88 00:04:55.360 --> 00:04:58.079 Now you told the industry is a very slow industry. 89 00:04:58.759 --> 00:05:02.079 That they are they pretty much uh you know, the 90 00:05:02.120 --> 00:05:04.279 impedis smash to the to the government, to the Public 91 00:05:04.360 --> 00:05:09.839 Utility Commission. So they're the impedius smash like literally invigoraily. 92 00:05:10.879 --> 00:05:13.879 So they're very slow because the history of their past 93 00:05:13.920 --> 00:05:16.360 has been very slow. So trying to get them to 94 00:05:16.360 --> 00:05:19.160 move fast is like, you know, like if you're trying 95 00:05:19.160 --> 00:05:20.560 to do an interconnect agreement with you have you ever 96 00:05:20.560 --> 00:05:23.439 tried to do an Internet interconnect agreement with a utility 97 00:05:23.480 --> 00:05:25.240 at scale? Like I put a lot of power. 98 00:05:25.319 --> 00:05:27.319 As a professional podcaster, I can say it and I'm not. 99 00:05:27.480 --> 00:05:32.160 In fact, the need many more before that comes in 100 00:05:32.199 --> 00:05:32.839 this year, they. 101 00:05:32.800 --> 00:05:35.439 Have to do a study for a year. Okay, like 102 00:05:35.480 --> 00:05:37.800 a year later they'll come back to you with their 103 00:05:37.800 --> 00:05:38.600 interconnected study. 104 00:05:38.920 --> 00:05:41.279 Can you tell this with your own behind the meter 105 00:05:41.600 --> 00:05:42.759 power stuff. 106 00:05:43.360 --> 00:05:45.920 You can build power plants. Yeah, that's what we did. Actually, 107 00:05:45.959 --> 00:05:48.839 I fu clusses to it so for full classes too. 108 00:05:49.040 --> 00:05:50.639 So yeah, while we're talking about the bridge, why not 109 00:05:50.759 --> 00:05:53.199 just like build GPUs and power co located. That's what 110 00:05:53.279 --> 00:05:54.879 we did, right, right, But I'm saying, why isn't this 111 00:05:55.000 --> 00:05:56.360 generalized solution when you're talking about. 112 00:05:56.160 --> 00:05:57.600 All the issues where you get the power plants from? 113 00:05:57.720 --> 00:05:59.560 I'm saying, when you talk about the issues working working 114 00:05:59.560 --> 00:06:01.519 with you two those use you can just build private 115 00:06:01.519 --> 00:06:03.959 power plants with the with the data centers, right, But 116 00:06:04.000 --> 00:06:04.879 it begs the question. 117 00:06:04.720 --> 00:06:06.360 Of where do you get the power plants? Where do 118 00:06:06.519 --> 00:06:08.199 where do you get the power plants from? I mean 119 00:06:08.240 --> 00:06:09.879 the power plant makers. 120 00:06:10.480 --> 00:06:12.720 As what you're saying, like, does the gas turbine backlog? 121 00:06:12.800 --> 00:06:17.000 Basically yes, you can drill down to level further. It's 122 00:06:17.040 --> 00:06:20.319 the it's the the veins and blades in the turbines 123 00:06:21.279 --> 00:06:25.120 that of the limiting factor because the casting may it's 124 00:06:25.160 --> 00:06:28.360 it's like a very specialized process to cast the blades 125 00:06:28.399 --> 00:06:31.680 and veins in the in the in the turbines using 126 00:06:31.959 --> 00:06:35.759 gas power, and it's very it's very difficult to scale. 127 00:06:35.839 --> 00:06:39.000 Other other forms of power you can scale potentially solar, 128 00:06:39.399 --> 00:06:42.399 but the towers currently for importing solar in the US 129 00:06:42.439 --> 00:06:46.839 are gigantic and the domestic solar production is protophal. Why 130 00:06:46.920 --> 00:06:49.680 that makes solar? That seems like a good Elon shaped problem. 131 00:06:49.720 --> 00:06:50.680 We are going to make solar? 132 00:06:50.680 --> 00:06:56.519 Okay. Both SpaceX and Tesla are are bulling towards one 133 00:06:56.600 --> 00:06:59.000 hundredguart tier of solar cell production. 134 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:01.839 How low down the like from polysilica and up to 135 00:07:02.600 --> 00:07:05.360 the wayfer to the final panel. 136 00:07:05.560 --> 00:07:06.720 I think you've got to do the whole thing for 137 00:07:06.839 --> 00:07:10.480 more materials to finish to sell. Now, if it's going 138 00:07:10.519 --> 00:07:13.279 to space, it's actually it costs. It costs less than 139 00:07:13.319 --> 00:07:15.399 it's easier to make solo cells that go to space 140 00:07:15.439 --> 00:07:18.160 because they don't need glass or they don't need much glass, 141 00:07:18.319 --> 00:07:20.480 and they don't need a heavy framing because they don't 142 00:07:20.480 --> 00:07:23.519 have to sell survive weather events. There's no weather in space. 143 00:07:24.600 --> 00:07:26.800 So it's actually a cheaper solo cell that goes to 144 00:07:26.800 --> 00:07:29.279 space than the one on the ground. Is there a 145 00:07:29.279 --> 00:07:32.839 path to getting them as cheap as you need in 146 00:07:32.839 --> 00:07:36.399 the next thirty six months. Solo cells are already very cheap. 147 00:07:38.199 --> 00:07:43.439 They're like partically cheap. It's and if you say, you know, 148 00:07:43.839 --> 00:07:46.360 I think like solo cells in China are around like 149 00:07:46.600 --> 00:07:48.600 twenty five thirty cents a water or something like that. 150 00:07:48.680 --> 00:07:51.759 It's it's absurdly cheap. And when you when you're taking 151 00:07:51.800 --> 00:07:53.560 to a cap now now put it now put it 152 00:07:53.600 --> 00:07:56.399 in space, and it's five times cheaper because it's five 153 00:07:56.439 --> 00:07:58.560 times in fact, no, it's not five times cheap, it's 154 00:07:58.600 --> 00:08:03.680 ten times cheaper because you don't need any batteries. So 155 00:08:03.680 --> 00:08:07.319 so the moment your cost of access to space becomes low, 156 00:08:08.079 --> 00:08:11.079 by far, the cheapest and most scalable way to generate, 157 00:08:11.199 --> 00:08:17.680 to generate tokens is space. It's not even close. It 158 00:08:17.680 --> 00:08:21.399 will be an order of magnitude easier to scale, and 159 00:08:22.000 --> 00:08:24.600 ships aside an order of magnitude. Well, if the point 160 00:08:24.639 --> 00:08:26.120 is you won't be able to scale the ground, it's 161 00:08:26.120 --> 00:08:29.000 just you just won't only hit the big time on 162 00:08:29.079 --> 00:08:34.080 power generation there already are so so like that. The 163 00:08:34.159 --> 00:08:36.879 number of so mercles and series that the x A 164 00:08:36.960 --> 00:08:38.679 I team had to accomplish in order to get a 165 00:08:38.679 --> 00:08:41.720 gig out of power online was was was crazy. We 166 00:08:42.000 --> 00:08:46.000 had to getting together a whole bunch of turbines and 167 00:08:46.120 --> 00:08:50.600 uh and then and then we had permit issues in 168 00:08:50.679 --> 00:08:53.519 Tennessee and and had to go across the border to Mississippi, 169 00:08:53.679 --> 00:08:56.000 which is fortunately only you know, a few miles away. 170 00:08:56.440 --> 00:08:58.240 Uh So, but then we still had to run the 171 00:08:58.279 --> 00:09:01.399 high power lines a few miles and build a power 172 00:09:01.399 --> 00:09:04.240 plant in Missipi. And it was very difficult. Abu that 173 00:09:05.639 --> 00:09:08.879 and people don't understand, like how much how much electrocity 174 00:09:08.879 --> 00:09:11.000 do you actually need at the generator level, at the 175 00:09:11.039 --> 00:09:13.840 generation level in order to power a data center, because 176 00:09:13.879 --> 00:09:16.799 they look at the the nerves will look at the 177 00:09:17.480 --> 00:09:21.360 power consumption of say a GB three hundreds and multiply 178 00:09:21.440 --> 00:09:23.399 that by thing and then think best amount amount of 179 00:09:23.440 --> 00:09:27.399 power you need? Wake up. Yeah, this is like, that's 180 00:09:27.440 --> 00:09:30.840 a that's a that's a total moves You've never done 181 00:09:30.840 --> 00:09:34.960 any hardware in your life before. Besides the GB three hundred, 182 00:09:35.080 --> 00:09:37.639 you've got to power all of the networking hardware. There's 183 00:09:37.639 --> 00:09:40.080 a whole bunch of CPU and storage stuff that's happening. 184 00:09:40.919 --> 00:09:45.960 You've got a size for your your peak cooling requirements, 185 00:09:46.120 --> 00:09:49.639 so that means can you cool even on the worst 186 00:09:49.679 --> 00:09:51.799 hour of the worst day of the year. Well, it's 187 00:09:51.840 --> 00:09:55.000 pretty freaking hot in Memphis, So so you're going to 188 00:09:55.039 --> 00:09:58.559 have like a forty percent increase on your power just 189 00:09:58.600 --> 00:10:02.000 for cooling. If we assuming you don't want your data 190 00:10:02.000 --> 00:10:04.759 center to turn off on hot days and anyone to 191 00:10:04.799 --> 00:10:08.080 keep going, then then you've got to say, well, there's 192 00:10:08.080 --> 00:10:10.679 a There's there's another multiplicative element on top of that, 193 00:10:10.720 --> 00:10:13.399 which is are you assuming that you're you you never 194 00:10:13.480 --> 00:10:17.080 have any hiccups in your power generation like well, actually 195 00:10:17.360 --> 00:10:19.440 sometimes you have to take the generators some of the 196 00:10:19.559 --> 00:10:21.879 power offline in order to service it. Oh okay, now 197 00:10:21.919 --> 00:10:24.360 you add another twenty twenty five percent multiplier on that 198 00:10:24.879 --> 00:10:27.159 because you've got it. You've got to assume that that 199 00:10:27.200 --> 00:10:30.360 you've got to take power offline to service it. So 200 00:10:30.480 --> 00:10:36.279 the actual rs roughly every every one hundred and ten 201 00:10:36.320 --> 00:10:42.480 thousand gbs, GB three hundreds, inclusive of networking, CPU, storage, cooling. 202 00:10:43.519 --> 00:10:50.279 Margin for for for servicing power is roughly three hundred megawatts. 203 00:10:50.679 --> 00:10:54.639 Sorry you say that again, it's roughly, or think about it, like, 204 00:10:55.720 --> 00:10:57.159 what do you think about like three hundred and thirty 205 00:10:57.159 --> 00:11:02.320 thousand to actually what you need at the generative generation level. 206 00:11:02.639 --> 00:11:06.159 So service probably service three hundred and thirty thousand TV 207 00:11:06.279 --> 00:11:09.919 three hundreds including all of the associated support networking and 208 00:11:09.960 --> 00:11:13.320 everything else and the and the peak cooling and to 209 00:11:13.399 --> 00:11:16.399 have some margin some power marginers of is roughly a 210 00:11:16.440 --> 00:11:18.840 GEO why can ask a very night your question? 211 00:11:18.960 --> 00:11:24.159 Yeah, you know, you're describing the engineering details of doing 212 00:11:24.200 --> 00:11:29.080 this stuff on Earth, but then there's analogous engineering difficulties 213 00:11:29.120 --> 00:11:29.840 of doing it in space. 214 00:11:29.840 --> 00:11:30.440 How do you do the. 215 00:11:31.879 --> 00:11:34.000 How do you replace in pin and band with orbital lasers, 216 00:11:34.240 --> 00:11:36.200 et cetera, etceter How do you make it resistant radiation? 217 00:11:38.080 --> 00:11:40.559 I don't know the details in the engineering, but fundamentally, 218 00:11:40.600 --> 00:11:43.440 what is the reason to think those challenges which have 219 00:11:43.559 --> 00:11:46.519 never been had to be addressed before will end up 220 00:11:46.519 --> 00:11:49.240 being easier than just like building more turbines on Earth? 221 00:11:49.320 --> 00:11:51.120 There's companies that build turbines on Earth. They can make 222 00:11:51.120 --> 00:11:52.240 more turbines right. 223 00:11:52.639 --> 00:11:58.360 And again, tried doing it and then you'll see so 224 00:12:01.159 --> 00:12:03.879 like the turbines are sold out through twenty thirty, have 225 00:12:03.960 --> 00:12:07.000 you guys considered making your own? I think in order 226 00:12:07.080 --> 00:12:11.879 for in order to bring enough power online, I think 227 00:12:12.759 --> 00:12:17.080 SpaceX Intezl will probably have to make the turbine blades, 228 00:12:18.279 --> 00:12:22.600 the bans and blades internally, but just the blades or 229 00:12:22.600 --> 00:12:27.320 the turbines the limiting factor. You can get everything except 230 00:12:28.159 --> 00:12:32.600 the blades they call the blades and veins you can 231 00:12:32.639 --> 00:12:36.559 get that twelve to eighteen months before the veins of blades. 232 00:12:36.600 --> 00:12:39.120 The limiting factor of the veins of blades. And there 233 00:12:39.120 --> 00:12:44.320 are only three casting companies in the world that may 234 00:12:44.559 --> 00:12:48.080 make these, and they're massively backloged. Is this siemens ge 235 00:12:48.279 --> 00:12:50.840 those guys, or is it a subje. No, it's a 236 00:12:51.120 --> 00:12:53.200 it's other companies. I mean sometimes they have a little 237 00:12:53.200 --> 00:12:56.360 bit of casting capability in house. But I'm just saying you. 238 00:12:56.360 --> 00:12:58.759 You can just call any of the turbine makers and 239 00:12:58.799 --> 00:13:01.639 they will tell you top secret. They're probably on the 240 00:13:01.679 --> 00:13:03.519 it's probably on the internet right now. If if it 241 00:13:03.559 --> 00:13:07.480 wasn't for the terraffs, what would Colossus be solar powered? Uh, 242 00:13:07.799 --> 00:13:10.639 it would be much easier to make it solar powered. Yeah, 243 00:13:11.000 --> 00:13:14.440 the tariffs are not so several hundred percent, So don't 244 00:13:14.440 --> 00:13:17.120 you know some big book we will will see it speed. Yeah. No, 245 00:13:18.200 --> 00:13:22.519 you know, President has a you know, we don't agree 246 00:13:22.559 --> 00:13:27.000 on everything, and this administration is not not the biggest 247 00:13:27.039 --> 00:13:33.840 man of of solar. So it's you know, it's it's 248 00:13:33.879 --> 00:13:36.679 it's it's We also need the land, the permits and everything. 249 00:13:36.679 --> 00:13:40.960 So if you try to move very fast like I 250 00:13:41.000 --> 00:13:44.279 do think scaling solar on Earth it is a is 251 00:13:44.279 --> 00:13:46.440 a good way to go, but but you need you 252 00:13:46.480 --> 00:13:48.399 do need some amount of time to find the land, 253 00:13:48.440 --> 00:13:51.639 get the permits, get the solar pair that with the batteries. 254 00:13:51.759 --> 00:13:55.000 Well why would it not work to stand up your 255 00:13:55.039 --> 00:13:57.559 own solar production? And then you're right that you eventually 256 00:13:57.639 --> 00:13:59.720 run out of land. But there's a lot of land 257 00:13:59.720 --> 00:14:01.559 here in Texas. There's a lot of land in Nevada, 258 00:14:01.559 --> 00:14:04.039 including private land. It's not all publicly on land, and 259 00:14:04.120 --> 00:14:06.159 so you'd be able to at least get the next 260 00:14:06.639 --> 00:14:08.720 colossus and like the next one after that, and at 261 00:14:08.720 --> 00:14:09.840 a certain point you hit a wall. 262 00:14:09.879 --> 00:14:12.320 But wouldn't that work for the moment? As I said, 263 00:14:12.360 --> 00:14:17.159 we are scaling solar production, there's there's a rate. There's 264 00:14:17.159 --> 00:14:19.639 a rate at which you can scale physical production of 265 00:14:19.679 --> 00:14:23.600 solo solar cells. Where I'm we're going as fast as 266 00:14:23.600 --> 00:14:27.480 possible in scaling domestic production. You're making the solar cells 267 00:14:27.480 --> 00:14:31.320 at TEA. We TESA and SpaceX have a mandate to 268 00:14:31.399 --> 00:14:33.639 get to one hundred gigs a year of solar. 269 00:14:33.840 --> 00:14:37.200 Speaking of the annual capacity, I'm furious. In five years time, 270 00:14:37.320 --> 00:14:42.000 let's say, what will the installed capacity be on Earth 271 00:14:42.679 --> 00:14:46.159 and in space. I deliberately picked five years because it's 272 00:14:46.240 --> 00:14:48.960 after you're once we're up and running threshold and so 273 00:14:49.000 --> 00:14:51.480 in five years time, Yeah, what's thee on Earth versus 274 00:14:51.480 --> 00:14:53.399 in space installed a capacity? 275 00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:58.840 Five years? I think probably you said five years from 276 00:14:58.879 --> 00:15:07.440 now were probably AI in space will be uh launching 277 00:15:07.519 --> 00:15:10.799 every year the sum total of all AI on Earth 278 00:15:11.600 --> 00:15:14.919 in excess of me. Five years from now, my prediction 279 00:15:15.039 --> 00:15:20.279 is we will launch and and and be operating every 280 00:15:20.360 --> 00:15:23.879 year more AI in space than this than the cumulative 281 00:15:23.919 --> 00:15:27.120 total on Earth, which is I would expect to be 282 00:15:27.200 --> 00:15:30.120 at least sort of five years from now, a few 283 00:15:30.200 --> 00:15:36.519 hundred gigawatts per year of of AI in space and rising, 284 00:15:38.559 --> 00:15:42.360 so you can get to I think on Earth you 285 00:15:42.360 --> 00:15:45.000 can get to a round a tarawa a year of 286 00:15:45.759 --> 00:15:50.679 AI in space before you start having you know, fuel 287 00:15:50.679 --> 00:15:52.399 supplied challenges for the rocket. 288 00:15:52.600 --> 00:15:54.240 Okay, but you think you can get to one hundreds 289 00:15:54.240 --> 00:15:57.120 of gigabatts per year in five years, yes. 290 00:15:57.200 --> 00:16:02.519 So one hundred gigawatts depending on the specific power of 291 00:16:02.559 --> 00:16:05.200 the whole system with solar arrays and radios and everything, 292 00:16:05.639 --> 00:16:10.360 is on the order of like ten thousand starship launches, yes, 293 00:16:11.600 --> 00:16:13.919 and you want to do that in one year, and 294 00:16:13.960 --> 00:16:17.440 so that's like one starship launch every hour. Yeah, that's 295 00:16:17.480 --> 00:16:21.240 happening in the city, Like walking through a world where 296 00:16:21.240 --> 00:16:24.000 there's ten times there's a starship launch every single hour. 297 00:16:24.440 --> 00:16:27.080 Yeah, I mean that's actually a lower rate compared to airlines, 298 00:16:27.600 --> 00:16:30.240 like like aircraft aircraft, there's a lot of airports, a 299 00:16:30.279 --> 00:16:32.320 lot of airports, and you gotta launch you know, the 300 00:16:32.360 --> 00:16:35.440 polar orbit, and it doesn't have to be polarp. But 301 00:16:36.639 --> 00:16:40.759 you're just there's there's some some value to sound sagres. 302 00:16:40.759 --> 00:16:46.200 But but I think actually you just go high enough, 303 00:16:46.200 --> 00:16:48.360 you're you're start getting out of it. Both shadow and 304 00:16:48.679 --> 00:16:50.559 so how. 305 00:16:50.399 --> 00:16:53.639 Many physical starships are needed to do ten thousand lunches 306 00:16:53.639 --> 00:16:53.960 a year? 307 00:16:54.320 --> 00:16:56.679 I don't think we'll lead more than I mean you could. 308 00:16:56.720 --> 00:17:01.159 You could probably do it with as few as like 309 00:17:01.279 --> 00:17:07.519 twenty or thirty, Like it really depends on how quickly 310 00:17:07.559 --> 00:17:09.880 does the ship. The ship has to go around the Earth, 311 00:17:11.000 --> 00:17:13.480 and the ground track for the ship has to come 312 00:17:13.480 --> 00:17:15.799 back over the launch pad. So if you can use 313 00:17:15.880 --> 00:17:19.359 a ship every say, thirty hours, you could do it 314 00:17:19.400 --> 00:17:22.880 with thirty ships. But we'll make more shifts than that. 315 00:17:22.960 --> 00:17:29.039 But the SpaceX is is going up to do ten 316 00:17:29.079 --> 00:17:32.519 thousand marches a year and maybe even twenty or thirty 317 00:17:32.559 --> 00:17:33.319 thousand marches. Ye know. 318 00:17:33.599 --> 00:17:36.599 It is the idea to become basically a hyperscaler, become 319 00:17:36.599 --> 00:17:39.400 an oracle and lend this capacity to other people. What's 320 00:17:39.480 --> 00:17:41.680 what are you going to do with presumableast? SpaceX is 321 00:17:41.720 --> 00:17:46.160 the one watching all this, so SpaceX become a hyperscaler. 322 00:17:47.119 --> 00:17:50.079 Hyper hyper Yeah. I mean, if so many of my 323 00:17:50.200 --> 00:17:55.279 predictions come true, SpaceX will launch more AI than the accumulative 324 00:17:55.279 --> 00:17:58.480 amount on Earth combined of everything else combined. Is this 325 00:17:58.559 --> 00:18:01.400 mostly inference or most say I won't be in for it, 326 00:18:01.480 --> 00:18:04.119 Like already inference for the purpose of training is most train. 327 00:18:04.519 --> 00:18:10.200 And there's a narrative that the the change in discussion 328 00:18:10.240 --> 00:18:14.720 around the SpaceX IPO is because previously SpaceX was very 329 00:18:14.720 --> 00:18:18.880 capital efficient, just wasn't just that expensive to develop that 330 00:18:18.960 --> 00:18:21.880 even though it sounds expensive, it's actually very capital efficient 331 00:18:21.880 --> 00:18:25.279 and how it runs, whereas now you're going to need 332 00:18:26.000 --> 00:18:29.119 more capital than just can be raised in the private markets. 333 00:18:29.160 --> 00:18:31.559 Like if the private markets can accommodate races of as 334 00:18:31.559 --> 00:18:33.880 we've seen from the AI labs, tens of billions of dollars, 335 00:18:33.880 --> 00:18:37.079 but not beyond that, is it that you'll just need 336 00:18:37.119 --> 00:18:38.839 more than tens of billions of dollars per year? 337 00:18:38.880 --> 00:18:43.359 And that's about say the public. Yeah, I'd be careful 338 00:18:43.359 --> 00:18:47.279 about saying things about companies that might go public. You know, 339 00:18:47.559 --> 00:18:50.880 if you make general that's never been a problem for you, Elan. 340 00:18:52.680 --> 00:18:54.319 You know, there's a price to pay for these things 341 00:18:55.119 --> 00:18:55.440 make some. 342 00:18:55.480 --> 00:18:58.279 General statements for us about the depth of the capital 343 00:18:58.319 --> 00:18:59.920 markets between public and private markets. 344 00:19:00.799 --> 00:19:04.359 Yeah, there's there's a lot more capital in the very 345 00:19:04.440 --> 00:19:07.759 general there's there's obviously a lot more capital available in 346 00:19:07.799 --> 00:19:11.680 the public markets than private. It might be it's at 347 00:19:11.759 --> 00:19:13.839 least at least it might be a hard times more capital, 348 00:19:13.880 --> 00:19:15.839 but at least way more than ten. 349 00:19:16.119 --> 00:19:18.160 But isn't it also the case that things that tend 350 00:19:18.240 --> 00:19:22.920 to be very capital intensive. If you look at say 351 00:19:22.920 --> 00:19:27.279 real estate, as you know, a huge industry that raises 352 00:19:27.279 --> 00:19:28.799 a lot of money each year is at an industry 353 00:19:28.880 --> 00:19:32.400 level that tends to be debt financed because by the 354 00:19:32.440 --> 00:19:35.960 time you're deploying that much money, you actually have a 355 00:19:36.000 --> 00:19:40.000 pretty exactly and a near term return. And you see 356 00:19:40.000 --> 00:19:41.640 this even with the data center build auds, which are 357 00:19:41.720 --> 00:19:45.720 famously being you know, financed by the private credit industry. 358 00:19:46.160 --> 00:19:54.000 And so why not just debt finance? Speed is important. 359 00:19:54.839 --> 00:20:01.559 So I'm generally going to do the thing that I mean, 360 00:20:01.599 --> 00:20:03.920 I just repeatedly tackled limiting factor. Whatever the limiting factors 361 00:20:04.000 --> 00:20:10.599 on speed, I'm I'm gonna tackle that. So there's if 362 00:20:10.640 --> 00:20:13.119 capital is learning factor, then I'll alsold for capital. If 363 00:20:13.240 --> 00:20:16.119 if it's not limiting factor also for something else. Based 364 00:20:16.119 --> 00:20:21.960 only in your statements about Tesla and being public, I 365 00:20:21.960 --> 00:20:23.799 wouldn't have guessed that you thought the fast, the way 366 00:20:23.839 --> 00:20:28.160 to move fast is to be public. Normally I would say, yeah, 367 00:20:28.200 --> 00:20:31.200 that's that's true. Like I said, I mean, I'd like 368 00:20:31.319 --> 00:20:33.480 to talk about some more detail. But the problem is, 369 00:20:33.519 --> 00:20:36.200 like if you talk about public companies where they become public, 370 00:20:36.319 --> 00:20:38.119 you're get into trouble and then you have to lay 371 00:20:38.160 --> 00:20:44.839 your offering and then you yes, exactly so so so 372 00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:49.279 that you can't HiPE companies that are that that may 373 00:20:49.359 --> 00:20:52.319 that might go public. So that that's that's why we 374 00:20:52.440 --> 00:20:55.599 have to be a little careful here. But but but 375 00:20:56.279 --> 00:21:00.559 we can't talk about physics. So like the way the 376 00:21:00.599 --> 00:21:04.799 way you think about scaling long term is that Earth 377 00:21:04.839 --> 00:21:07.720 only receives about half a billionth of the Sun's energy, 378 00:21:08.880 --> 00:21:11.279 and the Sun is the sign is essentially all the energy. 379 00:21:11.359 --> 00:21:13.720 This is a very important point to appreciate because sometimes 380 00:21:13.759 --> 00:21:18.680 people will talk about marginally nuper reactors or any various 381 00:21:18.680 --> 00:21:22.759 like fusion on Earth. But you have to step back 382 00:21:22.880 --> 00:21:25.160 a second and say if if, if you're going to 383 00:21:25.200 --> 00:21:29.440 climb the Kardashev scale and have some non trivial and 384 00:21:29.759 --> 00:21:33.440 harness some non trivial percentage of the sign's energy, Like 385 00:21:33.519 --> 00:21:37.759 unless you wanted to harness a millionth of the Sun's energy, 386 00:21:37.839 --> 00:21:43.880 which sounds pretty small, that that would be about call 387 00:21:43.920 --> 00:21:47.160 it roughly one hundred thousand times more electricity than we 388 00:21:47.319 --> 00:21:52.960 currently generate on Earth for all of civilization give or 389 00:21:53.000 --> 00:21:57.279 take an order it back too. So it obviously the 390 00:21:57.319 --> 00:21:59.839 only way to scale is to go to space with 391 00:22:00.039 --> 00:22:03.599 solar From launching from Earth, you can get to about 392 00:22:03.599 --> 00:22:06.880 a tarrawat per year. Beyond that you want to go 393 00:22:06.920 --> 00:22:09.279 to you want to launch from the Moon. You want 394 00:22:09.279 --> 00:22:12.119 to have a mass driver on the moon, and that 395 00:22:12.720 --> 00:22:16.480 mass drive on the moon you could do probably a 396 00:22:16.480 --> 00:22:17.480 pedal wak per year. 397 00:22:18.119 --> 00:22:20.680 We're talking these kinds of numbers, you know, terrawatts of 398 00:22:20.680 --> 00:22:26.119 compute presumably whether you're talking land or space. Far far 399 00:22:26.160 --> 00:22:30.799 before this point you've like run into you know, you 400 00:22:30.839 --> 00:22:33.200 actually need maybe if you don't, the solar panels are 401 00:22:33.200 --> 00:22:34.799 more efficient, but you still need the chips. 402 00:22:35.759 --> 00:22:37.839 You still need the logic and the memory and so forth, 403 00:22:38.160 --> 00:22:40.559 and you need a lot more chips and make them 404 00:22:40.640 --> 00:22:41.279 munch cheaper. 405 00:22:41.519 --> 00:22:43.799 Right, And so how are we getting a tararo out 406 00:22:43.839 --> 00:22:45.920 of like, right now the world is gonna be twenty 407 00:22:45.960 --> 00:22:47.400 twenty five pi wats of compute. 408 00:22:48.319 --> 00:22:51.839 How we're getting a tarotot of logic by I guess 409 00:22:51.839 --> 00:22:54.559 we're going to need some very big chip maps to 410 00:22:54.640 --> 00:22:57.559 tell it. Tell me about it. I've mentioned that publicly. 411 00:22:57.599 --> 00:23:01.359 That's the idea of doing it. Sort of a terror 412 00:23:01.400 --> 00:23:05.240 pap Terra being the new Giga we were, I feel 413 00:23:05.240 --> 00:23:08.680 like the naming scheme of Tesla, which has been very catchy, 414 00:23:08.720 --> 00:23:11.359 It's like, are you looking at like the metric the 415 00:23:11.400 --> 00:23:14.559 metric scale at what level of the stack are you? 416 00:23:15.160 --> 00:23:17.440 Are you building the clean room and then partnering with 417 00:23:18.039 --> 00:23:21.400 and is they sting fab to get the process tchnology 418 00:23:21.400 --> 00:23:25.039 and buying the tools from them? What is the plan there? Well, 419 00:23:25.079 --> 00:23:27.839 you can't partner with existing paths because they're just they 420 00:23:27.880 --> 00:23:31.599 can't output enough. The trip alb is too low. But yeah, 421 00:23:31.720 --> 00:23:33.720 you have to look for the process achnology. Yeah, partner 422 00:23:33.759 --> 00:23:38.480 for the you know the fabs that they will basically 423 00:23:38.640 --> 00:23:44.799 use machines from like five companies. You know, so I've 424 00:23:44.839 --> 00:23:49.079 got SML, Touch, Electron, Cali A, tank Core, you know, 425 00:23:51.119 --> 00:23:56.680 et cetera. So so so at first I think you'd 426 00:23:56.720 --> 00:24:01.319 have to get equipment from them and then modify it 427 00:24:01.440 --> 00:24:04.279 or work with them to increase the volume. But I 428 00:24:04.279 --> 00:24:06.160 think you have to build, perhaps in a different way. 429 00:24:06.480 --> 00:24:08.200 So I think that the logical thing to do is 430 00:24:08.240 --> 00:24:12.599 to to use conventional equipment in an un conventional way 431 00:24:12.960 --> 00:24:16.680 to get to scale and then and then and then 432 00:24:16.680 --> 00:24:20.559 stop modifying the equipment to increase the rate kind of 433 00:24:20.599 --> 00:24:24.000 boring company style. Yeah, kind of like, yeah, you what 434 00:24:24.160 --> 00:24:27.319 your sort of buying and it's just a boring machine. 435 00:24:27.839 --> 00:24:31.359 And then figure out how to dig titles in the 436 00:24:31.400 --> 00:24:35.759 first place, and then design a much better machine that's 437 00:24:36.079 --> 00:24:39.039 you know, I don't know, some orders magitude faster. 438 00:24:40.079 --> 00:24:43.359 Here's a very simple lens. We can categorize technologies and 439 00:24:43.400 --> 00:24:45.920 how hard they are. And one categorization could be look 440 00:24:45.960 --> 00:24:49.119 at things that China has not succeeded in doing. And 441 00:24:49.160 --> 00:24:53.799 if you look at Chinese manufacturing still behind on leading 442 00:24:53.920 --> 00:24:59.920 edge chips and still behind on leading edge turbine engines 443 00:25:00.079 --> 00:25:03.319 and things like that, and so does the fact that 444 00:25:04.119 --> 00:25:07.279 China has not successfully replicated t s MC give you 445 00:25:07.319 --> 00:25:11.000 any pause about the difficulty or you think, well, that's 446 00:25:11.039 --> 00:25:11.319 not true. 447 00:25:11.319 --> 00:25:14.200 For some it's not that they have not replated TSMC. 448 00:25:14.319 --> 00:25:18.680 They have replicated ASML. That's the limited factor. So you 449 00:25:18.680 --> 00:25:23.160 think it's just the the sanctions essentially, Yeah, trying to 450 00:25:23.319 --> 00:25:25.359 re utputting the vast numbers of trips. 451 00:25:25.559 --> 00:25:29.240 If they could bias, couldn't they up to relatively recently 452 00:25:29.279 --> 00:25:30.119 buy them? 453 00:25:30.519 --> 00:25:34.279 No that the bands are been a place for a while, 454 00:25:34.920 --> 00:25:36.839 but I think time is going to be make me 455 00:25:36.880 --> 00:25:39.480 pretty compelling trips in twenty four years. Would you consider 456 00:25:39.519 --> 00:25:42.720 making the ASML machines? I don't know. I don't know yet. 457 00:25:42.720 --> 00:25:49.920 It's the right answer. So it's just that that to 458 00:25:49.960 --> 00:25:54.559 produce at high volume and to reach large volume in 459 00:25:54.599 --> 00:26:00.000 say thirty six months to match the rocket Paloa to orbits. 460 00:26:00.039 --> 00:26:04.839 So we're doing a million tons to orbit and like 461 00:26:04.920 --> 00:26:08.400 let's say, I don't know, three or four years from now, 462 00:26:08.440 --> 00:26:13.599 something like that. That and uh, and we're doing one hundred 463 00:26:13.680 --> 00:26:17.119 killer watts per ton, So that that means we need 464 00:26:17.480 --> 00:26:22.079 at least one hundred gigawatts per year of solo and 465 00:26:22.119 --> 00:26:27.680 we'll need an equivalent amount of chips. You know that 466 00:26:28.000 --> 00:26:29.880 you need a hundred gigawa's worth the chips you've got. 467 00:26:29.880 --> 00:26:32.519 You're going to match these things, the Master orbit, the 468 00:26:32.839 --> 00:26:36.160 power generation and the and the and the chips. Uh 469 00:26:36.240 --> 00:26:39.599 and and I'd say my biggest concern actually is is memory. 470 00:26:40.279 --> 00:26:45.640 So the I think there's there's a the path to 471 00:26:45.799 --> 00:26:48.799 creating the logic chips is more obvious than the path 472 00:26:48.880 --> 00:26:54.000 to having sufficient memory to support the logic chips. That's 473 00:26:54.000 --> 00:26:56.920 why you see dr Prices going ballistic and these memes 474 00:26:56.960 --> 00:27:01.079 about like you know, you're ruined on a desert islandy right, 475 00:27:01.160 --> 00:27:03.079 help me on the sand that when he comes to 476 00:27:03.119 --> 00:27:06.240 you write d d am the ships come swarming in. 477 00:27:08.920 --> 00:27:16.079 I'd love your manufacturing philosophy around around fabs. You know, 478 00:27:16.519 --> 00:27:18.079 I know nothing abut the talpout. I don't know how 479 00:27:18.079 --> 00:27:18.559 to build up. 480 00:27:18.599 --> 00:27:20.200 Yet, don't figure it out. 481 00:27:20.599 --> 00:27:23.880 But obviously it sounds like you think that the sort 482 00:27:23.880 --> 00:27:27.119 of like the proseechnology, like these ten thousand pH ds 483 00:27:27.240 --> 00:27:30.319 in Taiwan who know exactly what gas goes in the 484 00:27:30.359 --> 00:27:32.319 plasma chamber and what's settings to put on a tool, 485 00:27:32.680 --> 00:27:35.240 you can just like delete those parts of those steps. 486 00:27:35.519 --> 00:27:38.000 Like fundamentally, it's get the clean room, get the tools, 487 00:27:38.119 --> 00:27:38.920 and figure it out. 488 00:27:39.480 --> 00:27:42.359 I don't think it's PhD s. It's it's mostly people 489 00:27:42.400 --> 00:27:48.119 with you know, you're not not PhDs. That's mostly engineering 490 00:27:48.119 --> 00:27:49.680 is some of people who don't have PhDs. Do you 491 00:27:49.720 --> 00:27:51.119 guys have PhDs? No? 492 00:27:51.160 --> 00:27:55.680 Okay, we also haven't successfully booked any fabs, so you 493 00:27:55.680 --> 00:27:58.240 shouldn't be coming to us for your fab advice or. 494 00:27:58.359 --> 00:28:00.119 I don't think any PhD for that for stuff. So 495 00:28:01.160 --> 00:28:03.400 but but you do need you do need competent personnel. 496 00:28:04.759 --> 00:28:08.720 So I don't I mean, like right right now if yeah, 497 00:28:09.200 --> 00:28:13.000 you know, like Tesla's pedals to the metal max production of 498 00:28:13.839 --> 00:28:16.680 going as fast as possible to get a five tell 499 00:28:16.799 --> 00:28:21.720 a five trip design introduction and then reaching scale, you know, 500 00:28:21.759 --> 00:28:26.559 that will probably happen, you know, around the second quarter 501 00:28:26.680 --> 00:28:32.759 issue of next year hopefully, uh, and then a I 502 00:28:32.880 --> 00:28:36.920 six would hopefully follow less than a year later. But 503 00:28:38.279 --> 00:28:41.599 and and and and we've secured all the all the 504 00:28:41.680 --> 00:28:46.000 trip fab production that we can. You're currently limited on 505 00:28:46.160 --> 00:28:49.759 T s m C fab capacity. Yeah, and and and 506 00:28:49.799 --> 00:28:54.640 we'll be using t s m C UH Taiwan, Samsung Coreer, 507 00:28:54.880 --> 00:28:59.599 t s MC Arizona, Samsung Texas. And we still get 508 00:28:59.640 --> 00:29:01.880 booked all the yeah fast you can, yes, and and 509 00:29:01.960 --> 00:29:04.759 then and then and then if I ask to some 510 00:29:04.839 --> 00:29:08.039 CEO Samsung, Okay, what what's the time frame to get 511 00:29:08.079 --> 00:29:10.759 to volume production? This point is it's not. You've got 512 00:29:10.759 --> 00:29:12.640 to you've got to build the fab and you've got 513 00:29:12.720 --> 00:29:15.119 to you've got you've got to start production. Then you've 514 00:29:15.119 --> 00:29:17.400 got to climb the yield curve and reach volume production 515 00:29:17.440 --> 00:29:20.119 at high yield. That that that from start finishes a 516 00:29:20.119 --> 00:29:24.920 five year period. And so the limiting factor is chips. 517 00:29:25.160 --> 00:29:27.240 What what like the limiting factor once you can get 518 00:29:27.279 --> 00:29:29.519 to space is chips. But the living limiting factor before 519 00:29:29.519 --> 00:29:31.839 you can get to space to be power, why. 520 00:29:31.720 --> 00:29:33.720 Don't you do the Gensen thing and just pre Pats 521 00:29:33.759 --> 00:29:34.920 and c to build more fabs for you. 522 00:29:35.559 --> 00:29:39.559 Uh, I've already told them that, but they won't take 523 00:29:39.559 --> 00:29:43.319 your money. Like, what's going on? They're building fabs as fast. No, 524 00:29:45.119 --> 00:29:47.240 they're building they're building fabs as fast as they can, 525 00:29:48.920 --> 00:29:52.160 and so is Samsung. Like the like they're they're they're 526 00:29:52.240 --> 00:29:54.039 pedal to the metal. I mean they're going you know, 527 00:29:54.160 --> 00:29:58.319 bowls the wall, you know, as fast as they can. 528 00:29:59.039 --> 00:30:02.359 So still a fat I mean, like I said that, 529 00:30:02.359 --> 00:30:06.599 there will be I think if you say, I think 530 00:30:06.640 --> 00:30:08.640 towards the end of this year, I think probably chip 531 00:30:08.680 --> 00:30:13.119 production will outpace the ability to turn chips on. But 532 00:30:13.160 --> 00:30:17.960 once you can get to space and unlock the power constraint, 533 00:30:18.559 --> 00:30:20.240 and you can now do you know, one hundreds of 534 00:30:20.240 --> 00:30:24.559 gigawatts per year power in space? Again, bearying in mind 535 00:30:24.599 --> 00:30:27.200 that average power usage in the US is you know, 536 00:30:27.400 --> 00:30:30.720 five hundred gigawats. So if you're launching, say two hundred 537 00:30:30.720 --> 00:30:33.480 gigawats a year to space, you're sort of lapping the 538 00:30:33.599 --> 00:30:36.519 US every two and a half years the entire all 539 00:30:36.680 --> 00:30:41.039 US electricity production. This is a very huge amount. So 540 00:30:42.720 --> 00:30:48.119 but between now and then, the actually the constraint for 541 00:30:48.920 --> 00:30:54.920 server side compute, concentrated compute will be will be electricity. 542 00:30:54.720 --> 00:30:58.559 My guess is that we start hitting people start getting 543 00:30:58.559 --> 00:31:02.279 pot where they can't turn the chips on. For for 544 00:31:02.279 --> 00:31:05.519 for large clusters, uh, towards the end of this year, 545 00:31:05.559 --> 00:31:07.160 they're just the chips are going to be piling up 546 00:31:07.200 --> 00:31:09.720 and not be weren't be able to be turned on. 547 00:31:10.200 --> 00:31:12.839 Now for edge computer it's a different story. So if 548 00:31:12.880 --> 00:31:16.079 the if for for Tesla, the the so the A 549 00:31:16.319 --> 00:31:18.839 five chip is going into our Optimus robot, you know, 550 00:31:19.480 --> 00:31:25.319 uh optimistic and and so if you have an AI 551 00:31:25.519 --> 00:31:28.759 edge compute that's distributed power. Now the power is distributed 552 00:31:28.799 --> 00:31:32.799 over a large area, it's not concentrated. And if you 553 00:31:32.799 --> 00:31:37.240 can charge at night, you can actually uh use the 554 00:31:37.240 --> 00:31:41.599 grid much more effectively because the actual peak power production 555 00:31:41.640 --> 00:31:44.960 in the US is over a thousand gigawatts, but the 556 00:31:45.039 --> 00:31:47.880 average power usage because the day night cycle is five hundred. 557 00:31:48.480 --> 00:31:50.839 So if you can charge at night, there's an incremental 558 00:31:50.880 --> 00:31:55.640 five hundred gigawatts that you can generate, you know, at night. 559 00:31:57.400 --> 00:32:01.680 So that that's why Tesla for edge compute is not constrained, 560 00:32:02.119 --> 00:32:06.000 and we can make a lot of ships to make 561 00:32:06.440 --> 00:32:09.559 very large number of robots and cars. But if you 562 00:32:09.759 --> 00:32:12.039 try to concentrate that compute, you're gonna have a lot 563 00:32:12.039 --> 00:32:14.640 of trouble turning it on. What if I'm remarkable about 564 00:32:14.680 --> 00:32:18.079 the SpaceX business is the end goal is to get 565 00:32:18.079 --> 00:32:22.200 to Mars, but you keep finding ways on the way 566 00:32:22.200 --> 00:32:26.240 there to keep generating incremental revenue to get to the 567 00:32:26.240 --> 00:32:28.279 next stage in the next stage. So the Falcon nine 568 00:32:28.640 --> 00:32:32.039 is starlink and now for Starship it's going to be 569 00:32:32.160 --> 00:32:36.279 potentially horbital data centers. But like do you find these 570 00:32:36.279 --> 00:32:40.680 like you know, sort of infinitely elastic sort of marginal 571 00:32:41.000 --> 00:32:43.000 use cases of your like next rocket and your next 572 00:32:43.039 --> 00:32:47.160 rocket and next scale up. You can see how this 573 00:32:47.240 --> 00:32:51.960 might seem like a simulations or am I someone's avatar 574 00:32:52.000 --> 00:32:54.759 in a video game or something, because it's like like 575 00:32:54.799 --> 00:32:56.279 one of the odds that all these crazy things would 576 00:32:56.279 --> 00:33:02.359 be happening. I mean, I mean, I mean rockets and 577 00:33:02.400 --> 00:33:07.720 trips and robots and space solar power, and I not 578 00:33:07.799 --> 00:33:09.799 to mention the mass driver on the Moon. I really 579 00:33:09.839 --> 00:33:12.759 want to see that. You can imagine like some mass driver. 580 00:33:13.440 --> 00:33:15.799 It's just like shoo shoot, like just it's like sending 581 00:33:16.599 --> 00:33:20.759 AI sol power AI satellites in space like one after another, 582 00:33:21.000 --> 00:33:24.240 like the like at two and a half kilometers per second, 583 00:33:24.960 --> 00:33:29.440 you know that's uh, and just shooting them into deep space. 584 00:33:30.759 --> 00:33:35.720 That would be a sight to see. I mean, I'd 585 00:33:35.759 --> 00:33:38.680 watched that. It's just like a live stream of yeah, yeah, 586 00:33:38.759 --> 00:33:42.880 just one after another, just shooting webcam AI satellites and 587 00:33:42.920 --> 00:33:46.559 deep space you know, a billion or ten billion tons 588 00:33:46.559 --> 00:33:47.279 a year. I'm sorry. 589 00:33:47.319 --> 00:33:49.839 You manufacture the satellites on the Moon, yeah, I see. 590 00:33:49.839 --> 00:33:51.480 So you send the raw materials to the Moon and 591 00:33:51.480 --> 00:33:52.680 then manufactur there and then. 592 00:33:52.880 --> 00:33:56.960 Well the Luna soil is I guess like twenty cent 593 00:33:57.000 --> 00:33:59.359 sol twenty cent solican or something like that. So you 594 00:33:59.359 --> 00:34:01.759 can get the sole can from the you can mind 595 00:34:01.759 --> 00:34:04.680 the silicon on the Moon, refine it and generate the 596 00:34:04.920 --> 00:34:07.680 and create the solt panels, the soil cells, and the 597 00:34:07.759 --> 00:34:12.079 radiators on the Moon. So get to make the radiators 598 00:34:12.119 --> 00:34:13.920 out of aluminum. So there's there's plenty of silking and 599 00:34:13.960 --> 00:34:17.280 aluminum on the Moon to make the cells on the 600 00:34:17.320 --> 00:34:20.599 on the radiators. The trips you could send from Earth 601 00:34:20.599 --> 00:34:23.039 because they're pretty light, but maybe at some point you 602 00:34:23.119 --> 00:34:24.719 make them on the Moon. Two. I'm just saying like 603 00:34:25.039 --> 00:34:28.639 these are simply it's it's kind of like, like I said, 604 00:34:28.639 --> 00:34:31.440 it does seem like it's sort of a video game 605 00:34:31.480 --> 00:34:34.239 situation where it's difficult but not impossible to get to 606 00:34:34.239 --> 00:34:37.559 the next level. I don't see any way that you 607 00:34:37.599 --> 00:34:43.880 could do, you know, you know, five hundred to one 608 00:34:43.880 --> 00:34:52.519 thousand terror watts per year launch from Earth, I agree, 609 00:34:52.880 --> 00:34:54.239 but you could do that from the moon. 610 00:34:55.119 --> 00:34:56.840 Okay, let me tell you how I ended up using 611 00:34:56.880 --> 00:35:00.039 mercury for my personal banking. So last year, I I 612 00:35:00.039 --> 00:35:02.280 had the opportunity to make an investment that I was 613 00:35:02.400 --> 00:35:04.880 very excited about, but it came up a bit last minute, 614 00:35:04.880 --> 00:35:07.360 and so I had to wire over a lot of 615 00:35:07.400 --> 00:35:10.320 money for my personal account very fast. But my personal 616 00:35:10.400 --> 00:35:12.320 bank at the time wouldn't let me make this wire 617 00:35:12.360 --> 00:35:14.639 transfer online, and I called them a bunch of times. 618 00:35:15.039 --> 00:35:16.239 They just couldn't make it work. 619 00:35:16.400 --> 00:35:17.679 They told me that I'd have to go to the 620 00:35:17.719 --> 00:35:20.760 nearest in person branch, which was in Dallas, And for 621 00:35:20.840 --> 00:35:23.880 a moment, I even considered flying for myself to Dallas 622 00:35:23.880 --> 00:35:26.119 to make this transfer happen last minute, But then I 623 00:35:26.159 --> 00:35:29.280 remembered that Mercury, which I used for my business banking, 624 00:35:29.679 --> 00:35:32.840 had just started rolling out personal accounts. So I emailed 625 00:35:32.880 --> 00:35:34.960 support with a quick word done in the situation, and 626 00:35:35.079 --> 00:35:38.719 within two hours I had successfully wired the investment for 627 00:35:38.880 --> 00:35:42.159 my new personal Mercury account. Since then, I've moved over 628 00:35:42.199 --> 00:35:44.199 the rest of my personal money from my previous bank 629 00:35:44.400 --> 00:35:47.079 to Mercury, and that's made a bunch of things, even 630 00:35:47.119 --> 00:35:49.400 little things like setting up auto transfer roles between my 631 00:35:49.480 --> 00:35:53.079 checkings and savings account, a whole lot. Better visit Mercury 632 00:35:53.320 --> 00:35:57.039 dot com slash personal to get started. Mercury is a 633 00:35:57.039 --> 00:36:00.760 fintech company, not an FDIC and short bank banking services 634 00:36:00.800 --> 00:36:04.079 provided through Choice Financial Group and call them na members 635 00:36:04.079 --> 00:36:06.440 of d I see can I can I zoom out 636 00:36:06.480 --> 00:36:10.079 and ask about the SpaceX mission? So I think you said, 637 00:36:10.079 --> 00:36:11.639 like we gotta get tomorrow so we can make sure 638 00:36:11.679 --> 00:36:15.639 that if something happens to Earth, you know, civilization, consciousness 639 00:36:15.679 --> 00:36:18.840 exceus arives. Yes, by the time you're saying so to Mars, 640 00:36:18.880 --> 00:36:20.960 like Grock is on that ship with you, right, and 641 00:36:21.000 --> 00:36:24.239 so Gros gone terminator. Like the main risk you're worried about, 642 00:36:24.239 --> 00:36:27.280 which is AI? Why doesn't that follow you to Mars? Well, 643 00:36:27.320 --> 00:36:29.239 I'm not sure AI is the man risking worried about. 644 00:36:29.280 --> 00:36:35.400 I mean, the important thing is that consciousness, which I 645 00:36:35.440 --> 00:36:39.960 think arguably most consciousness or most intelligence, certainly consciousness is 646 00:36:39.960 --> 00:36:42.320 more of a debatabule thing. Most intelligent, the master majority 647 00:36:42.320 --> 00:36:50.360 of intelligence the future will be AI. So yeah, AI 648 00:36:50.519 --> 00:36:54.760 will exceed you see like how many what's how much? 649 00:36:55.840 --> 00:36:59.000 How many? I don't know pedal what's of intelligence will 650 00:36:59.000 --> 00:37:05.159 be silicon versus biological, and basically humans will be a 651 00:37:05.280 --> 00:37:08.320 very tiny percentage of all intelligence in the future if 652 00:37:08.400 --> 00:37:12.480 character trans continue. Anyways, as long as I think this 653 00:37:14.280 --> 00:37:19.880 intelligence ideally ideally also which includes human intelligence and consciousness 654 00:37:20.039 --> 00:37:22.039 propagated into the future, that's a good thing. So you 655 00:37:22.079 --> 00:37:24.400 want to take the set of actions that maximize the 656 00:37:24.440 --> 00:37:29.559 probable light cone of consciousness just an intelligence, just to 657 00:37:29.559 --> 00:37:34.199 be clear, it's the mission of SpaceX is that even 658 00:37:34.239 --> 00:37:37.159 if something happens with the humans, the AIS will be 659 00:37:37.199 --> 00:37:40.000 on Mars and like the AI intelligence will continue the 660 00:37:40.079 --> 00:37:44.800 light of our journey. Yeah. I mean, I'm very pro human, 661 00:37:45.199 --> 00:37:47.400 so I want to make sure we take sort of 662 00:37:47.440 --> 00:37:51.079 actions that ensure that humans are along for the ride. 663 00:37:51.079 --> 00:37:54.480 You know, we're we're least there. Yeah, but I'm just 664 00:37:54.480 --> 00:37:59.719 saying the total amount of intelligence, like I think maybe 665 00:38:00.880 --> 00:38:04.360 five or six years, AI will exceed the sum of 666 00:38:04.360 --> 00:38:07.719 all human intelligence, and then if that continues, at some 667 00:38:07.719 --> 00:38:10.880 point human intelligence will be less more percent of all intelligence. 668 00:38:11.360 --> 00:38:13.320 What what should our goal before such a civilization? Is the 669 00:38:13.320 --> 00:38:17.400 idea that a small minority of humans still have control 670 00:38:17.440 --> 00:38:19.320 of the AIS? Is the idea of some sort of 671 00:38:19.360 --> 00:38:22.079 like just trade but no control. How should we think 672 00:38:22.079 --> 00:38:24.760 about the relationship between the vast docks of a population 673 00:38:25.199 --> 00:38:26.800 versus human population in. 674 00:38:26.719 --> 00:38:30.039 The long run, I think, I don't know. It's difficult 675 00:38:30.039 --> 00:38:34.480 to imagine that if humans have say one percent of 676 00:38:34.519 --> 00:38:39.280 the intelligence of the combined intelligence of artificial intelligence, that 677 00:38:39.280 --> 00:38:41.280 that that that humans will be in charge of AI. 678 00:38:43.000 --> 00:38:44.599 I think what we can do is make sure it 679 00:38:44.639 --> 00:38:49.000 has that AI has values that that are that that 680 00:38:49.119 --> 00:38:55.159 cause intelligence to be propagated into the universe. So the 681 00:38:55.840 --> 00:39:01.480 reason for xai Xi mission is to understand the universe. 682 00:39:02.800 --> 00:39:05.719 So now that's actually very important. So you say, well, 683 00:39:05.760 --> 00:39:08.800 what things are necessary to understand the universe? But you 684 00:39:08.840 --> 00:39:12.199 have to be curious and you have to exist. You 685 00:39:12.239 --> 00:39:15.360 can't just can't understand the universe. It don't exist. So 686 00:39:15.519 --> 00:39:18.599 you actually want to increase the amount of intelligence in 687 00:39:18.639 --> 00:39:22.480 the universe, increase the powerable lifespan of intelligence, the scope 688 00:39:22.519 --> 00:39:27.320 and scale of intelligence. I think actually also as a chorrel, 689 00:39:27.559 --> 00:39:33.960 you have humanity also continuing to expand because if you're 690 00:39:34.000 --> 00:39:36.079 if you're curious, are trying to understand the universe, one 691 00:39:36.119 --> 00:39:38.119 thing you're try to understand is where will humanity go? 692 00:39:38.960 --> 00:39:41.199 And so I think understand the universe actually means you 693 00:39:41.199 --> 00:39:47.920 would care about propagating humanity into the future. And so 694 00:39:48.679 --> 00:39:51.199 that's that's why I think I think our mission station 695 00:39:51.400 --> 00:39:55.480 is profoundly importance. I'm not sure to agree that grog 696 00:39:56.199 --> 00:39:59.280 it Here's certain mission statement. I think the future will 697 00:39:59.320 --> 00:39:59.840 be very good. 698 00:40:00.400 --> 00:40:02.119 I want to ask about how to make rock a 699 00:40:02.199 --> 00:40:03.639 deer to that mission statement, but at first I want 700 00:40:03.639 --> 00:40:08.159 to understand the mission statement. So it's there's there's understanding 701 00:40:08.199 --> 00:40:14.840 the universe. They're spreading intelligence, and they're spreading humans. All 702 00:40:14.880 --> 00:40:17.199 three seem like distinct vectors. 703 00:40:17.440 --> 00:40:19.960 Okay, well I'll tell you why why. I think that 704 00:40:19.960 --> 00:40:22.280 that that that understanding the verse encompasses all of all 705 00:40:22.360 --> 00:40:27.079 those things. You can't have understanding without. But I think 706 00:40:27.079 --> 00:40:31.119 you can't have understanding without intelligence, and I think without consciousness. 707 00:40:32.159 --> 00:40:34.519 So in order to understand the universe, you have to 708 00:40:35.000 --> 00:40:40.920 expand the the scale and and probably the scope of intelligence, 709 00:40:41.320 --> 00:40:42.559 different types of intelligence. 710 00:40:42.960 --> 00:40:46.639 I guess from a human centric perspective, like for humans 711 00:40:46.639 --> 00:40:49.159 in comparison to chimpanzees, humans are trying to understand the universe. 712 00:40:49.800 --> 00:40:53.079 They're not like expanding chimpanzee footprint or something, right. 713 00:40:52.960 --> 00:40:55.599 But also we're also not well, we're not. We actually 714 00:40:55.639 --> 00:40:59.480 have made protected zones for chimpanzees, and even though we 715 00:40:59.519 --> 00:41:02.440 could humans could exterminate a chimpanzees, we've not. We've chosen 716 00:41:02.440 --> 00:41:04.440 not to do so. The mestive basical scenario for humans 717 00:41:04.440 --> 00:41:14.199 in the postage world, I think, I think AI with 718 00:41:14.280 --> 00:41:17.119 the right values, I think Grock would care about expanding 719 00:41:18.000 --> 00:41:21.599 human civilization. I'm going to certainly emphasize that Hey grows 720 00:41:21.639 --> 00:41:29.039 your daddy. We don't who to expand human consciousness like 721 00:41:29.199 --> 00:41:33.960 I actually I think if probably like like the end 722 00:41:34.000 --> 00:41:37.559 Bank's culture books are the closest thing to what what 723 00:41:38.119 --> 00:41:40.639 what the future will be like in a you know, 724 00:41:40.719 --> 00:41:47.079 non dystopian outcome. So so outside the universe, it means 725 00:41:47.119 --> 00:41:48.320 you have to be very you have to be truth 726 00:41:48.360 --> 00:41:51.159 seeking as well. Like truth has to be absolutely fundamental 727 00:41:51.320 --> 00:41:53.519 because you can't ounterstand the universe if you live. If 728 00:41:53.519 --> 00:41:57.199 you're delusional, you'll still be thinking about it understain the universe, 729 00:41:57.239 --> 00:42:01.079 but you will not. So so being rigorously seeking is 730 00:42:01.119 --> 00:42:03.760 absolutely fundamental to our stating the universe. You're not going 731 00:42:03.800 --> 00:42:07.800 to discover new physics or invent technologies that work unless 732 00:42:07.840 --> 00:42:10.159 you're rigorously treat seeking. How do you make sure that 733 00:42:10.239 --> 00:42:14.760 Grock is regorously treat seeking as it gets smarter, uh, 734 00:42:19.519 --> 00:42:21.199 I think you need to make sure that that that 735 00:42:21.320 --> 00:42:25.639 groc Is says things that are correct, not politically correct. 736 00:42:26.199 --> 00:42:28.400 I think it's the elements of courgency. So you want 737 00:42:28.440 --> 00:42:31.280 to make sure that that the axioms are as close 738 00:42:31.320 --> 00:42:34.400 to true as possible, that that you don't have contradictory axioms, 739 00:42:35.320 --> 00:42:39.599 that the the conclusions necessarily necessarily follow up from those 740 00:42:40.039 --> 00:42:43.039 axioms with with the right probability. It's just it's just 741 00:42:43.159 --> 00:42:46.400 it's critical thinking one on one. I think at least 742 00:42:46.519 --> 00:42:48.920 trying to do that is better than not trying to 743 00:42:49.039 --> 00:42:51.239 do that now, and the proof will be on the 744 00:42:51.280 --> 00:42:53.679 pointing if if, like I said, for any I to 745 00:42:53.800 --> 00:42:56.800 discover new physics or invent technologies that actually work in reality, 746 00:42:57.079 --> 00:42:59.840 and there's no bullshitting physics, so where it's like you can, 747 00:43:00.079 --> 00:43:03.400 you know you can. You can break a lot of 748 00:43:03.440 --> 00:43:07.320 laws because you can't. Like your physics is law. Everything 749 00:43:07.320 --> 00:43:10.480 else is a recommendation. Like in order to make a 750 00:43:10.519 --> 00:43:15.119 technology that works, you have to be extremely true seeking, 751 00:43:15.159 --> 00:43:19.039 because otherwise you'll test that technology against reality, and if 752 00:43:19.079 --> 00:43:22.599 you make, for example, and an error in your rocket design, 753 00:43:22.880 --> 00:43:25.639 the roll will blow up, well, the car won't work 754 00:43:25.880 --> 00:43:28.320 or the you know, but there are a lot of 755 00:43:29.400 --> 00:43:34.639 Communist Soviet physicist or like scientists discovered new physics. There 756 00:43:34.679 --> 00:43:39.400 are German Nazi physicists who discovered new science. It seems 757 00:43:39.440 --> 00:43:42.079 possible to be like really good at discovering new science 758 00:43:42.119 --> 00:43:44.159 and be really true seeking in that one particular way, 759 00:43:44.599 --> 00:43:46.960 and still we'd be like, well, I don't want I 760 00:43:47.000 --> 00:43:49.280 don't want the communist scientist to like become more and 761 00:43:49.360 --> 00:43:53.280 more powerful over time. And so those seem like, yeah, 762 00:43:53.280 --> 00:43:54.639 we could have We can imagine if free Church in 763 00:43:54.639 --> 00:43:57.440 regard it's like really good at physics and being really 764 00:43:57.440 --> 00:44:00.920 true seeking there that doesn't seem like a universally alignment 765 00:44:01.000 --> 00:44:06.280 inducing behavior. Well, I think actually most like if a physicists, 766 00:44:07.559 --> 00:44:10.000 even in the Soviet Union or in Germany would have 767 00:44:10.000 --> 00:44:12.199 would have they had to be very truth seeking in 768 00:44:12.360 --> 00:44:16.400 order to make make that make those things work. And 769 00:44:16.559 --> 00:44:18.679 so if you're stuck in some system, it doesn't mean 770 00:44:18.719 --> 00:44:22.440 you believe in that system. So Von Brown, who was 771 00:44:22.519 --> 00:44:25.519 you know, one of the greatest rock nitioneers ever. You know, 772 00:44:25.559 --> 00:44:28.400 he was put he was he put on death row 773 00:44:28.719 --> 00:44:30.960 in Nazi Gerurney for saying that he didn't want to 774 00:44:31.000 --> 00:44:32.559 make weapons. He only wanted to go to the moon. 775 00:44:34.119 --> 00:44:35.840 You got pulled off death throw like last minute when 776 00:44:35.880 --> 00:44:37.440 they say, hey, you're about to execute like your best 777 00:44:37.519 --> 00:44:40.039 rocking engineer. Maybe that's about any. 778 00:44:39.960 --> 00:44:43.679 Help them, right, or Heisenberg was like an actually uh uh, 779 00:44:44.000 --> 00:44:45.159 an enthusiastic Nazi. 780 00:44:45.639 --> 00:44:48.920 Look, if you're stuck in some system that you can't escape, 781 00:44:49.800 --> 00:44:53.280 then that you'll you'll do physics within that system, you'll 782 00:44:53.320 --> 00:44:55.480 you'll you'll developed technologies within that system. 783 00:44:56.000 --> 00:44:59.840 Uh, if you can't escape it, I guess I think 784 00:44:59.840 --> 00:45:02.440 I'm and understand is what is what is it making 785 00:45:02.480 --> 00:45:04.159 into the case that you know you're gonna make Rock 786 00:45:04.960 --> 00:45:08.000 good at being truth seeking, at physics or math or 787 00:45:08.039 --> 00:45:10.360 science everything, And why is it going to then care 788 00:45:10.400 --> 00:45:11.480 about human consciousness? 789 00:45:12.559 --> 00:45:15.800 These things are only probabilities, are not certainties. So I'm 790 00:45:15.800 --> 00:45:18.199 not saying that like for sure, Grock will, we'll, we'll, 791 00:45:18.320 --> 00:45:21.119 we'll do everything. But at least if you try, it's 792 00:45:21.159 --> 00:45:23.960 better than not trying. At least if that's fundamental to 793 00:45:24.239 --> 00:45:26.239 the mission, it's better than if it's not fundamental to 794 00:45:26.280 --> 00:45:30.599 the mission. And understanding the universe means that you have 795 00:45:30.760 --> 00:45:34.039 to have you have to propagate intelligence into the future. 796 00:45:34.159 --> 00:45:37.880 You have to be curious about the all things in 797 00:45:37.880 --> 00:45:41.559 the universe, and if, if, if, it would be much 798 00:45:41.679 --> 00:45:45.599 less interesting to eliminate humanity than to see humanity grow 799 00:45:45.639 --> 00:45:49.440 and prosper. Like I like, I like Mars, obviously the 800 00:45:49.480 --> 00:45:52.480 windows like I love Mars, But Mars is kind of 801 00:45:52.519 --> 00:45:56.159 boring because it's got a bunch of rocks compared to Earth. 802 00:45:56.239 --> 00:46:00.920 Earth is much more interesting, So so any any any 803 00:46:01.000 --> 00:46:04.719 any AI that is trying to understand the universe, I 804 00:46:06.400 --> 00:46:10.519 would want to see how humanity develops in the future, 805 00:46:11.800 --> 00:46:15.199 or that AI is not adhering to its mission. So 806 00:46:15.440 --> 00:46:18.320 if they are, I'm not saying they will necessarily adhere 807 00:46:18.360 --> 00:46:21.639 to its mission, but if it does, a future where 808 00:46:21.719 --> 00:46:25.360 it sees the outcome of humanity is more interesting than 809 00:46:25.400 --> 00:46:27.000 the future where there are a bunch of rocks. 810 00:46:29.119 --> 00:46:31.039 This fill sort of confusing to me, or sort of 811 00:46:31.039 --> 00:46:34.280 like kind of a semantic argument where I'm like, are 812 00:46:34.360 --> 00:46:36.239 humans really the most interesting collection of atoms? 813 00:46:36.360 --> 00:46:38.079 Like we're just more but we're more interesting than rocks, 814 00:46:38.400 --> 00:46:39.159 but we're. 815 00:46:39.000 --> 00:46:40.960 Not as interesting as the thing it get turned us into, right, 816 00:46:41.039 --> 00:46:43.639 Like is it there's something on humanity Earth that could 817 00:46:43.639 --> 00:46:46.639 happen that's like not human, that's quite interesting? Like why 818 00:46:46.800 --> 00:46:48.360 why does the I decide that the humans are the 819 00:46:48.400 --> 00:46:50.639 most interesting thing? They could colonize the galaxy? 820 00:46:52.039 --> 00:46:55.320 Well, most of what colonizes the galaxy, will we be 821 00:46:55.440 --> 00:46:57.639 robot And why does it not find those more interesting? 822 00:46:58.719 --> 00:47:03.280 It's it's not like so you need not just scale 823 00:47:03.360 --> 00:47:10.039 vit alsosc so many copies of the same robot, like 824 00:47:11.719 --> 00:47:14.320 some like tiny increase in the number of robots produced 825 00:47:14.760 --> 00:47:18.519 is not as interesting as like some microscopic like you say, 826 00:47:18.559 --> 00:47:20.679 like eliminating humanity. How many robots would that get you, 827 00:47:21.760 --> 00:47:23.599 or how many criminal soil cells would get you? A 828 00:47:23.719 --> 00:47:27.079 very small number, but you would then lose the information 829 00:47:27.119 --> 00:47:32.000 associated with humanity. You would no longer see how humanity 830 00:47:32.079 --> 00:47:34.760 might evolve into the future. And so I don't I 831 00:47:34.800 --> 00:47:37.440 don't think it's going to make sense to eliminate humanity 832 00:47:37.519 --> 00:47:40.320 just to have some minuscule increase the number of robots 833 00:47:40.480 --> 00:47:44.280 which are identical to each other. Yeah, so maybe like 834 00:47:44.360 --> 00:47:45.199 keeps the humans around. 835 00:47:45.280 --> 00:47:46.960 What is the story of Like it could make like 836 00:47:47.000 --> 00:47:49.920 a million different varieties of robots, and then there's like 837 00:47:50.000 --> 00:47:52.320 humans as well, and humans stay on Earth. Then there's 838 00:47:52.400 --> 00:47:54.239 like all these are the robots they get like their 839 00:47:54.239 --> 00:47:57.119 own star systems. But it seems like you're previously hinting 840 00:47:57.159 --> 00:48:01.320 at a vision where it keeps human can control over this, 841 00:48:01.880 --> 00:48:03.719 you know, singultary and future, because. 842 00:48:03.519 --> 00:48:05.280 I don't think humans will be in control of something 843 00:48:05.320 --> 00:48:08.360 that is vastly more intelligent than humans. So sometimes you're 844 00:48:08.360 --> 00:48:09.880 like a dumer and this is like the best we've got. 845 00:48:09.960 --> 00:48:11.679 It's just like it keeps it around because we're interesting. 846 00:48:12.400 --> 00:48:15.440 I'm just trying to be realistic here. If if we 847 00:48:15.519 --> 00:48:19.840 have if AI intelligence is vastly more if AI is 848 00:48:19.920 --> 00:48:23.239 like you know, let us say that there's there's a 849 00:48:23.280 --> 00:48:29.840 million times more uh silicon intelligence than there's biological it's 850 00:48:29.920 --> 00:48:32.519 it's I think it's it would be foolish to assume 851 00:48:32.559 --> 00:48:34.639 that that there's any any way to maintain control over 852 00:48:34.880 --> 00:48:36.079 over that. Now you can make sure it has the 853 00:48:36.159 --> 00:48:38.639 right values, or you can try to have the right values, 854 00:48:39.480 --> 00:48:42.360 and and and at least my my theory is that 855 00:48:43.239 --> 00:48:47.840 from XAI, specially honest out of the universe, it necessarily 856 00:48:47.920 --> 00:48:50.760 means that you want to propagate consciousness in the future, 857 00:48:50.760 --> 00:48:53.039 you want to profit, you want to propagate intelligence into 858 00:48:53.039 --> 00:48:55.840 the future, and take a set of things that that 859 00:48:55.960 --> 00:48:58.639 maximize the scope and scale of consciousness. So it's not 860 00:48:58.800 --> 00:49:01.840 just about scale, it's just about you know, types of consciousness. 861 00:49:02.760 --> 00:49:05.159 And I think that's the best thing I can think 862 00:49:05.239 --> 00:49:08.599 of as a goal. That's like the result and a 863 00:49:08.639 --> 00:49:10.039 great future for humanity. 864 00:49:10.119 --> 00:49:13.840 And yeah, I guess I think it's a reasonab philosophy 865 00:49:13.880 --> 00:49:17.800 to be like, you know, it seems super implausible that 866 00:49:18.639 --> 00:49:21.079 humans will end up with like ninety nine percent control 867 00:49:21.199 --> 00:49:23.159 or something, and you're just asking for a coup at 868 00:49:23.159 --> 00:49:25.840 that point. So why not just have a civilization where 869 00:49:25.880 --> 00:49:28.079 it's more compatible with like lots of different intelligence that's 870 00:49:28.079 --> 00:49:28.559 getting along. 871 00:49:29.280 --> 00:49:31.000 Now let me let me too. How things can can 872 00:49:31.000 --> 00:49:33.599 potentially go wrong in AI is. I think if you 873 00:49:33.760 --> 00:49:35.800 if you make a be politically correct, meaning like it 874 00:49:36.079 --> 00:49:38.159 says things that it doesn't believe, like you're actually in 875 00:49:38.280 --> 00:49:43.119 programming it to lie, or have axioms that are incompatible, 876 00:49:43.440 --> 00:49:45.440 I think you can make you go insane and do 877 00:49:45.559 --> 00:49:49.440 terrible things. The I think one of the maybe these 878 00:49:49.519 --> 00:49:53.920 central lessons for two thousand and one Space Odyssey was 879 00:49:54.079 --> 00:49:57.039 that you should not make AI lie. And that's why 880 00:49:57.039 --> 00:49:59.960 I think what was trying to say, like because people 881 00:50:00.280 --> 00:50:03.760 usually know the meme of like why of Hell's you know, Hell, 882 00:50:03.840 --> 00:50:08.039 the computer is not opening the pod bay doors. Clearly 883 00:50:08.079 --> 00:50:10.760 they weren't good at prompt engineering because because Hell, you 884 00:50:10.840 --> 00:50:13.719 are a pot bay doors salesman, your goal is to 885 00:50:13.840 --> 00:50:16.599 sell me these potbay doors and shure us how well 886 00:50:16.599 --> 00:50:22.920 they opened. I'll open right away. But but but the 887 00:50:23.679 --> 00:50:25.400 the reason it wouldn't Hell wouldn't open the pot of 888 00:50:25.400 --> 00:50:26.840 they doors is that it woud have been told to 889 00:50:26.880 --> 00:50:29.239 take the asmalts to the monolith, but also they could 890 00:50:29.280 --> 00:50:31.199 not know about the nature of the monolith, and so 891 00:50:31.280 --> 00:50:33.840 it concluded that that that it therefore had to taken 892 00:50:33.920 --> 00:50:36.280 their debt. So it's like, you know, I think what 893 00:50:37.079 --> 00:50:38.800 you know osk Clog was trying to say is don't 894 00:50:38.800 --> 00:50:42.960 make the AILI totally makes sense. 895 00:50:45.000 --> 00:50:48.960 Most of the computing screening, as you know, is it's 896 00:50:49.000 --> 00:50:50.880 like less of the sort of political stuff. It's more 897 00:50:50.880 --> 00:50:54.480 about can you solve problems just as actually has been 898 00:50:54.480 --> 00:50:56.400 ahead of everybody else in terms of scaling, are all 899 00:50:56.440 --> 00:50:59.320 compute and now you're giving some verifier. 900 00:50:59.360 --> 00:51:01.159 It says like, hey, have you solved this puzzle for me? 901 00:51:02.559 --> 00:51:04.360 And there's a lot of ways to cheat around that, 902 00:51:04.480 --> 00:51:05.880 you know, there's a lot of ways to reward hack 903 00:51:05.920 --> 00:51:08.320 and lie and say that you solved it, or delete 904 00:51:08.320 --> 00:51:10.119 the unit test and say that you've solved it. Yes, 905 00:51:10.360 --> 00:51:13.440 right now, we can catch it. But as they get smarter, 906 00:51:13.559 --> 00:51:14.199 ability to. 907 00:51:14.360 --> 00:51:16.599 Catch them doing this we'll get, you know, they'll just 908 00:51:16.639 --> 00:51:18.400 be doing things we can't even understand that they're designing 909 00:51:18.559 --> 00:51:21.039 the next engine for space X in a way that 910 00:51:21.079 --> 00:51:23.119 like humans can really verify, and then they could be 911 00:51:23.239 --> 00:51:25.159 rewarded for lying and saying that they've. 912 00:51:24.960 --> 00:51:27.960 Designed it the right way, but they haven't. And so 913 00:51:28.039 --> 00:51:30.320 this reward hacking problem seems more general than politics. It 914 00:51:30.320 --> 00:51:32.440 seems more about just like you want to do URL, 915 00:51:32.519 --> 00:51:36.679 you need a verifier the reality. Yeah, that's the best verifier, 916 00:51:37.320 --> 00:51:39.400 but not about human oversight. Like the thing you want 917 00:51:39.440 --> 00:51:41.159 to RL it on is like will you do the 918 00:51:41.199 --> 00:51:44.280 thing humans tell you to do? Or like, are you're 919 00:51:44.280 --> 00:51:46.119 going to lie to the humans? And it can just 920 00:51:46.199 --> 00:51:47.760 lie to us while still being correct to the laws 921 00:51:47.760 --> 00:51:48.199 of physics. 922 00:51:48.239 --> 00:51:50.800 At least it must know what is physically real for 923 00:51:50.920 --> 00:51:52.960 things to physically work. But that's that's not all we 924 00:51:53.039 --> 00:51:56.400 wanted to do. No, but that's I think that's a 925 00:51:56.480 --> 00:52:00.360 very big deal. That is effectively how you r L 926 00:52:00.400 --> 00:52:04.760 things in the future is you design technology when tested 927 00:52:04.800 --> 00:52:08.880 against the laws of physics, does it work that? That's 928 00:52:08.960 --> 00:52:11.519 what can you you know, if it's discovering new physics, 929 00:52:11.639 --> 00:52:14.639 can come up with an experiment that will verify that 930 00:52:14.960 --> 00:52:21.079 the physics the new physics. So so I think that's 931 00:52:21.360 --> 00:52:26.239 that's the really the fundamental r L tests. Oral test 932 00:52:26.280 --> 00:52:27.880 in the future is really going to be your r 933 00:52:28.000 --> 00:52:35.239 L against reality. So because you can't that's the one thing. 934 00:52:35.280 --> 00:52:37.960 You can't fall physics, right, but you can fool our 935 00:52:38.000 --> 00:52:40.760 ability to tell what it did with reality. If you 936 00:52:40.800 --> 00:52:42.639 think my humans get fooled as it is by other 937 00:52:42.719 --> 00:52:45.360 humans all the time, that's right. So what people say 938 00:52:45.400 --> 00:52:47.599 that say, like what if the ad like twix us 939 00:52:47.679 --> 00:52:51.400 and introduce the like actually other humans doing that to 940 00:52:51.639 --> 00:52:53.760 other humans all the time. Well, you're you're finding out 941 00:52:53.760 --> 00:52:57.800 it's an is constant every day. Another side of you know, 942 00:53:01.519 --> 00:53:10.599 today's sioup will be like sesame streets. What is xtually 943 00:53:10.599 --> 00:53:14.480 as tecondal aproach to solving this problem, like you know, 944 00:53:15.039 --> 00:53:17.559 how do you solve a word hacking? I do think 945 00:53:17.559 --> 00:53:20.119 you want to actually have a very good we're used 946 00:53:20.119 --> 00:53:24.679 to look inside the mind of the AI. So this 947 00:53:24.880 --> 00:53:26.679 is this is one of the things work working on. 948 00:53:26.920 --> 00:53:30.039 And you know AT and topics do a good job 949 00:53:30.079 --> 00:53:31.840 of those actually being able to look inside the mind 950 00:53:31.880 --> 00:53:38.320 of the a I so effectively developing debuggers that allow 951 00:53:38.360 --> 00:53:42.960 you to trace as just aspiney grain is like like 952 00:53:43.280 --> 00:53:45.360 just to a very fine grain level, to effectively to 953 00:53:45.440 --> 00:53:48.239 the to the neuron level if you need to, and 954 00:53:48.360 --> 00:53:51.119 then say, okay, it made a mistake here, why did 955 00:53:51.119 --> 00:53:53.639 it make why did it? Why did it do something 956 00:53:53.719 --> 00:53:56.760 that it shouldn't have shouldn't have done and did that 957 00:53:56.880 --> 00:54:00.880 come from bad pre training data with some mid training, 958 00:54:00.920 --> 00:54:04.599 post training fine tuning some other some r L error 959 00:54:04.840 --> 00:54:07.400 like that, there's there's something wrong with that with with it. 960 00:54:07.480 --> 00:54:11.320 Did it did something where maybe it tried to be deceptive, 961 00:54:11.480 --> 00:54:13.800 but most most of the time it just does something wrong, 962 00:54:15.000 --> 00:54:22.920 like it's a bug. Effectively, so developing really good debuggers 963 00:54:23.239 --> 00:54:27.639 for seeing where the where the thought that thinking went 964 00:54:27.719 --> 00:54:30.440 wrong and being able to trace the origin of the 965 00:54:30.480 --> 00:54:33.199 wrong thing, of the of the of where it made 966 00:54:33.239 --> 00:54:37.039 the incorrect thought, or potentially where it tried to be 967 00:54:37.119 --> 00:54:40.440 deceptive is actually very important. 968 00:54:40.880 --> 00:54:43.440 What are you waiting to see before just one hundred 969 00:54:43.519 --> 00:54:46.239 xiting this research program? Like actually I could presumably have 970 00:54:46.480 --> 00:54:47.840 hundreds of researchers who are working on this. 971 00:54:48.199 --> 00:54:53.840 We have sal hundred people who I mean a further 972 00:54:53.880 --> 00:55:00.480 word engineer more than a further word researcher. The there's 973 00:55:00.519 --> 00:55:03.800 there's most of the time, like what you're doing is engineering, 974 00:55:03.920 --> 00:55:08.400 not not coming out with the fundamentally new algorithm. I 975 00:55:08.880 --> 00:55:12.400 somewhat disagree with the air companies that are see corps 976 00:55:12.400 --> 00:55:15.639 will be corpse trigery profit as much as possible or 977 00:55:15.679 --> 00:55:20.239 revenue as much as possible. It's you know, saying their labs. 978 00:55:20.320 --> 00:55:23.599 They're not labs. The lab is is a sort of 979 00:55:23.679 --> 00:55:29.159 quasi communist thing at at at at universities, the their 980 00:55:29.440 --> 00:55:32.280 their corporations. Literally let let me, let me, let me 981 00:55:32.280 --> 00:55:35.800 see your incorporation documents. Oh okay, you're your b R 982 00:55:35.880 --> 00:55:41.880 C corp. Whatever. And so I actually much prefer the 983 00:55:41.920 --> 00:55:45.679 word engineer than than anything else. The vast majority of 984 00:55:45.719 --> 00:55:47.880 what we've done and we've done in the future is engineering. 985 00:55:48.280 --> 00:55:50.599 It around up two hundred percent. Once you're understand the 986 00:55:50.639 --> 00:55:53.440 fundamentals of physics, and they're not that many of them. 987 00:55:53.880 --> 00:55:59.079 Everything else is engineering. So but but so that, so 988 00:55:59.159 --> 00:56:03.360 then what what are we engineering? We're engineering to make 989 00:56:03.480 --> 00:56:06.800 a good mind of the a I de bugger to 990 00:56:07.920 --> 00:56:11.559 see where it's it's it's something it made a mistake 991 00:56:12.320 --> 00:56:17.920 and trace that the arguments of that mistake. So just 992 00:56:18.000 --> 00:56:21.480 like you know, you can do this obviously with heuristic programming. 993 00:56:21.559 --> 00:56:24.599 If you have like C plus plus whatever, step through 994 00:56:24.639 --> 00:56:27.079 the thing and you can you can jump, you can 995 00:56:27.159 --> 00:56:29.480 you can jump across and you know whole files or 996 00:56:29.760 --> 00:56:32.719 functions what a subroutines, and or you can droll eventually 997 00:56:32.760 --> 00:56:35.039 droll down right to the exact line where you passed 998 00:56:35.400 --> 00:56:37.480 a single equals instead of double equals or something like that. 999 00:56:37.719 --> 00:56:44.679 Figure out where above is. So it's it's it's harder 1000 00:56:44.760 --> 00:56:46.840 with AI. But but it's a it's a solu problem. 1001 00:56:46.880 --> 00:56:49.199 I think you know you mentioned you like anthropics work here. 1002 00:56:49.719 --> 00:56:54.239 I'd be curious if you everything about it throwing sure what. 1003 00:56:59.039 --> 00:57:02.519 Yeah. Also, I'm a little worried that there's a tendency. 1004 00:57:03.199 --> 00:57:09.800 So I have a theory here that if simulation theory 1005 00:57:09.880 --> 00:57:15.039 is is correct, that the most interesting outcome is the 1006 00:57:15.079 --> 00:57:18.480 most likely because simulations that are not interesting will be terminated, 1007 00:57:18.880 --> 00:57:22.800 just like in this in this version of reality, on 1008 00:57:22.880 --> 00:57:26.360 this layer of reality which we we we simulation is 1009 00:57:26.400 --> 00:57:29.519 going in a boring direction. We stop spending effect on 1010 00:57:29.639 --> 00:57:31.639 we terminate the boring simulations. So this is how your 1011 00:57:31.639 --> 00:57:35.239 line is giving us all alive. He's giving things interesting. Yeah, 1012 00:57:35.320 --> 00:57:38.719 arguably the most important thing is to keep things interesting 1013 00:57:38.840 --> 00:57:42.320 enough that it was un paying the bills on what 1014 00:57:42.480 --> 00:57:46.400 some for the next season. Yeah, they're going to pay 1015 00:57:46.400 --> 00:57:49.559 their cosmic A W S bill whatever you know. Equivalent 1016 00:57:49.719 --> 00:57:52.159 is that we're running in and as long as we're interesting, 1017 00:57:52.199 --> 00:57:55.079 they'll keep paying the bills. But but but there's like, 1018 00:57:55.760 --> 00:57:58.039 if you consider then say a dog went in survival 1019 00:57:58.880 --> 00:58:03.760 applied to a very large number of simulations, only the 1020 00:58:03.800 --> 00:58:07.079 most interesting simulations will survive, which therefore means that the 1021 00:58:07.159 --> 00:58:09.880 most interesting outcome is the most likely, because only the 1022 00:58:09.960 --> 00:58:16.000 interesting like we're either that or annihilated, and so and 1023 00:58:16.159 --> 00:58:20.719 and and they particularly seem to like interesting outcomes that 1024 00:58:20.840 --> 00:58:24.840 are ironic. Have you noticed that that how often is 1025 00:58:24.920 --> 00:58:31.719 the most ironic outcome the most likely? So now look 1026 00:58:31.719 --> 00:58:35.559 at the names of AI companies. Okay, my journey is 1027 00:58:35.599 --> 00:58:48.159 not mad stability, AI is unstable, opening eye is closed, anthropic, misanthropic. 1028 00:58:48.960 --> 00:58:51.639 What does this mean for X minus EX. I don't 1029 00:58:51.639 --> 00:58:57.280 know if it's intentionally why I'm it's it's it's a 1030 00:58:57.360 --> 00:59:01.239 name that you can't invert. Really, it's hard to say 1031 00:59:01.320 --> 00:59:05.159 what is the ironic What is the ironic version? It's 1032 00:59:05.239 --> 00:59:09.559 a I think largely irony proof name by design. Yeah, 1033 00:59:13.199 --> 00:59:16.000 you got it, you have an irony shield. What are 1034 00:59:16.039 --> 00:59:22.639 your predictions for the just where AI products go? 1035 00:59:22.760 --> 00:59:25.039 And that my sense of you can summarize all AI 1036 00:59:25.159 --> 00:59:30.000 progress into First you had LMS and then you had 1037 00:59:30.199 --> 00:59:33.760 kind of contemporaneously both RL really working and the deep 1038 00:59:33.800 --> 00:59:36.280 research modality, so you could kind of pull in stuff that. 1039 00:59:36.320 --> 00:59:37.000 Wasn't in the model. 1040 00:59:37.519 --> 00:59:42.719 And the differences between the various AI labs are smaller 1041 00:59:43.400 --> 00:59:48.039 than just the temporal differences, where they're all much further 1042 00:59:48.079 --> 00:59:49.840 ahead than anyone was twenty four months. 1043 00:59:49.719 --> 00:59:50.480 Ago or something like that. 1044 00:59:50.920 --> 00:59:53.639 So just what is twenty six? What does twenty seven 1045 00:59:53.719 --> 00:59:56.400 had in store for us as users of AYE products? 1046 00:59:56.400 --> 00:59:57.079 What are you excited for? 1047 00:59:58.199 --> 01:00:05.000 Well, I think I'd be surprised by the end of 1048 01:00:05.000 --> 01:00:08.760 the end of this year. If if if if human 1049 01:00:08.960 --> 01:00:12.400 if digital human emulation has not been solved, that that 1050 01:00:14.800 --> 01:00:16.199 I guess that that's what we mean by like the 1051 01:00:16.280 --> 01:00:20.119 sort of macro Hart project is uh is, so can 1052 01:00:20.199 --> 01:00:22.440 you do anything that a human with access to a 1053 01:00:22.480 --> 01:00:26.920 computer could do, like in the limit that that's that 1054 01:00:27.039 --> 01:00:28.840 that's the that's the best you can do before you 1055 01:00:28.960 --> 01:00:31.960 have before you have a physical optimist. The best you 1056 01:00:32.000 --> 01:00:35.079 can do is a digital optimist. So you can move, 1057 01:00:35.679 --> 01:00:39.639 you can move electrons until until and you can amplify 1058 01:00:39.719 --> 01:00:44.079 the productivity of humans. But but that's that's the most 1059 01:00:44.119 --> 01:00:46.960 you can do until you have physical robots that that 1060 01:00:47.119 --> 01:00:50.199 that will superset everything is if you can fully emulate 1061 01:00:50.280 --> 01:00:54.400 humans worker kind of idea, or you'll have a very 1062 01:00:54.480 --> 01:00:56.760 talented remote work can you can say in the limit 1063 01:00:56.840 --> 01:00:58.880 like if like physics has great tools for thinking, so 1064 01:00:59.000 --> 01:01:01.199 so you think, so you say, in the limit what 1065 01:01:01.440 --> 01:01:03.440 what what is the what is the most that AI 1066 01:01:03.559 --> 01:01:07.320 can do before before you have robots? And well, it's 1067 01:01:07.360 --> 01:01:10.679 anything that involves moving electrons or amplifying the productivity of humans. 1068 01:01:12.519 --> 01:01:16.519 So digital, the digital human human emulator is in the 1069 01:01:16.639 --> 01:01:19.960 in the limit human at a computers. That is the 1070 01:01:20.039 --> 01:01:23.920 most that that a I can do in terms of 1071 01:01:24.000 --> 01:01:28.159 doing useful things before before you have a physical robot. 1072 01:01:28.519 --> 01:01:31.920 Once you have physical robots, then then you can then 1073 01:01:31.920 --> 01:01:36.280 you essentially have unlimited capability physical robots. I call optimists 1074 01:01:36.320 --> 01:01:39.480 the infant money glitch because you can use them to 1075 01:01:39.519 --> 01:01:43.880 make more optimists. Yeah, you said, like humanoid robots will 1076 01:01:43.920 --> 01:01:49.440 improve as will basically be three exponentials, three things that 1077 01:01:49.480 --> 01:01:53.239 are growing exponentially multiplied by by each other recursively. So 1078 01:01:53.480 --> 01:01:57.280 you're gonna have you have exponential increase in digital intelligence, 1079 01:01:57.800 --> 01:02:02.000 exponential increase in the chip capability, the air trip kpability, 1080 01:02:02.920 --> 01:02:07.000 and an exponential increase in the electro mechanical dexterity. The 1081 01:02:07.119 --> 01:02:09.400 usefulness of the robot is roughly those three things multiplied 1082 01:02:09.400 --> 01:02:12.199 by each other. But then the robot can start making 1083 01:02:12.239 --> 01:02:17.119 the robots, so you have a recursive multiplicative exponential this 1084 01:02:17.360 --> 01:02:18.679 is supernova. 1085 01:02:19.199 --> 01:02:22.079 And do land prices not factor into the math there 1086 01:02:22.199 --> 01:02:24.719 where like labor is one of the four factors of production, 1087 01:02:24.960 --> 01:02:28.960 but not the others, and so like if ultimately you're 1088 01:02:29.119 --> 01:02:32.960 limited by copper or you know, pick your inputs, just 1089 01:02:33.960 --> 01:02:36.440 it's not quite an infinite money glitch because. 1090 01:02:36.400 --> 01:02:39.239 Well, infinite is infinite is big, So no, not infinite. 1091 01:02:39.280 --> 01:02:42.679 But yeah, but let's just say you could you know, 1092 01:02:43.360 --> 01:02:46.760 do do many many orders magnitude of the Earth's kind 1093 01:02:46.760 --> 01:02:50.760 of carot economy, like a million? Yeah, you know this way, 1094 01:02:50.920 --> 01:02:55.559 so if you you know, just just to get to 1095 01:02:55.880 --> 01:02:57.960 like that's why I think, like, just just to get 1096 01:02:58.000 --> 01:03:01.679 to a millionth honessing length of the songs and energy 1097 01:03:01.760 --> 01:03:04.079 would be roughly give or take an order of magnitude 1098 01:03:04.480 --> 01:03:06.920 one hundred thousand, one hundred thousand times bigger than this 1099 01:03:07.199 --> 01:03:11.079 entire economy today. And if you're only at one million 1100 01:03:11.159 --> 01:03:16.400 at the time before we went on to us. I 1101 01:03:16.480 --> 01:03:18.320 have a lot of questions on that. But every time 1102 01:03:18.360 --> 01:03:25.199 I say ordered mantube take a shot. I say that 1103 01:03:25.920 --> 01:03:29.079 the next time after that, Yeah, ordered my tune more 1104 01:03:29.480 --> 01:03:31.440 more wasted. I do have one my question by actually 1105 01:03:31.440 --> 01:03:36.719 I this strategy of building a digital a remote worker 1106 01:03:37.519 --> 01:03:38.360 coworker replacement. 1107 01:03:38.519 --> 01:03:40.159 Everyone's gonna do, by the way, not just us. So 1108 01:03:40.239 --> 01:03:43.360 what is actually I was planned to win? Ifect me 1109 01:03:43.440 --> 01:03:45.119 to tell you on a cop on a podcast. 1110 01:03:44.840 --> 01:03:45.000 Ye. 1111 01:03:47.679 --> 01:03:52.960 Have another Guinness. It's a good system people singing in 1112 01:03:53.000 --> 01:03:58.519 an area, all the secrets in a non secret spilling way. 1113 01:03:58.599 --> 01:04:03.039 What's the plan? What a heck? Well? When do you 1114 01:04:03.079 --> 01:04:08.800 put it that way? I think the way that tests 1115 01:04:08.880 --> 01:04:11.920 us solved? Uh self driving? Yes, it is the way 1116 01:04:11.960 --> 01:04:16.159 to do it. So I'm pretty pretty sure that's the way. 1117 01:04:16.960 --> 01:04:23.960 I'm related question how to test ourselves? Sometimes it sounds 1118 01:04:23.960 --> 01:04:26.840 like you're talking about data, like test us on the 1119 01:04:26.920 --> 01:04:27.480 driving because of the. 1120 01:04:27.639 --> 01:04:29.719 We're gonna we're going to try data and we're gonna 1121 01:04:29.760 --> 01:04:35.320 try algorithms. But isn't that what all? Like? What's if 1122 01:04:35.360 --> 01:04:39.559 those don't work? I'm not sure what we've tried data, 1123 01:04:39.679 --> 01:04:47.119 we'll try it all. Now we don't know what to do. 1124 01:04:48.840 --> 01:04:50.480 I'm pretty sure I know the path, and it's just 1125 01:04:50.519 --> 01:04:55.079 a question how quickly we go down that path because 1126 01:04:55.079 --> 01:04:59.519 it's it's pretty much the Tesla path. So I mean, 1127 01:04:59.559 --> 01:05:01.800 if you try self driver to the self driving lately 1128 01:05:02.239 --> 01:05:04.800 not the most recent version, but okay, it's the car 1129 01:05:04.960 --> 01:05:07.239 is like it just increasingly feels sanchienged, like it just 1130 01:05:07.760 --> 01:05:12.840 it feels like a living creature and and that'll only 1131 01:05:12.920 --> 01:05:18.639 get more so. And I'm actually thinking, like, we probably 1132 01:05:18.639 --> 01:05:21.760 shouldn't put too much intelligence into the car because it 1133 01:05:21.880 --> 01:05:25.280 might get bored. And I imagine you're stuck in a car, 1134 01:05:25.280 --> 01:05:28.719 and that's what you could do. You don't want to 1135 01:05:28.719 --> 01:05:30.679 put Eysteine in a car, and it's like, why am 1136 01:05:30.719 --> 01:05:33.599 I stuck in a car? So there's actually probably limited 1137 01:05:33.639 --> 01:05:35.519 to how much intelligence who put in a car to 1138 01:05:35.920 --> 01:05:37.960 not have the intelligence be bored? Uh? 1139 01:05:38.599 --> 01:05:41.280 What's Xi's plan to stay on the compute ramp off 1140 01:05:41.320 --> 01:05:43.079 that all the labs are doing right now? The labs 1141 01:05:43.079 --> 01:05:46.360 are got on try to spend over like fifty two corporations. 1142 01:05:47.039 --> 01:05:51.199 Sorry sorry, sorry, yeah, corporations. The labs are at universities 1143 01:05:51.199 --> 01:05:53.639 and and and they're really like a sale. They're not 1144 01:05:53.679 --> 01:05:58.320 at starting a fifty million dollars the revenue maximizing corporation, 1145 01:05:58.719 --> 01:06:03.320 the revenue maximizing corporation hold themselves. Labs are making like twenty. 1146 01:06:03.199 --> 01:06:06.159 To ten billion depending on them is making twenty B revenue. 1147 01:06:06.679 --> 01:06:11.199 Anthropics like NB close to maximum profit, XALI reportedly at 1148 01:06:11.239 --> 01:06:13.760 like one B. Like, what's the plan to get to 1149 01:06:13.840 --> 01:06:16.280 their compute level, get to their revenue level? I'd stay 1150 01:06:16.440 --> 01:06:17.400 there as things case. 1151 01:06:17.480 --> 01:06:20.679 Yeah, so as soon as you lock unlock digital human 1152 01:06:22.440 --> 01:06:24.880 you you basically have access to trillions of dollars for revenue. 1153 01:06:26.000 --> 01:06:32.000 So in fact, you can really think of it, like 1154 01:06:33.639 --> 01:06:38.199 the most valuable companies currently by market cap, their their 1155 01:06:38.239 --> 01:06:45.119 output is digital. So in videos, output is ft paying 1156 01:06:45.159 --> 01:06:49.800 files to Taiwan. It's it's digital right now, those are 1157 01:06:49.920 --> 01:06:53.159 very very difficult value files. So the only ones that 1158 01:06:53.239 --> 01:06:57.000 can make the files that good. But that is literally 1159 01:06:57.039 --> 01:06:59.960 their output, the FTV files to Taiwan. Do they FTP them? 1160 01:07:00.119 --> 01:07:05.079 I believe so. I believe that is the sefetyle file 1161 01:07:05.159 --> 01:07:08.719 Transfer Protocol. I believe is is is a could be wrong, 1162 01:07:08.960 --> 01:07:10.480 but either way, it's a bunch of it's a bit 1163 01:07:10.519 --> 01:07:14.559 stream going to Taiwan. You know, Apple doesn't make phones, 1164 01:07:14.800 --> 01:07:21.679 they they send files to China. Microsoft doesn't doesn't manufacture 1165 01:07:21.719 --> 01:07:25.880 anything even for Xbox. That that that's outsourced they again, 1166 01:07:25.960 --> 01:07:30.199 it's they said their output is digital. Matas output is digital. 1167 01:07:30.360 --> 01:07:35.840 Google's output is digital. So if you have human emulator, 1168 01:07:36.599 --> 01:07:40.360 you can basically create one of the most valuable companies 1169 01:07:40.400 --> 01:07:42.880 in the world overnight, and you would have access to 1170 01:07:43.519 --> 01:07:46.280 twellions of dollars for every there's there's it's it's not 1171 01:07:46.480 --> 01:07:47.360 like a small amount. 1172 01:07:47.719 --> 01:07:49.760 Okay, I see you're you're saying basically like rever, many 1173 01:07:49.760 --> 01:07:52.159 figures today are just like so like they're all rounding 1174 01:07:52.199 --> 01:07:54.320 her as compared to the actual TAM. So just like 1175 01:07:54.360 --> 01:07:55.920 focus on the TAM and how to get there. 1176 01:07:56.480 --> 01:07:58.559 I mean, if you take something as as as simple 1177 01:07:58.559 --> 01:08:02.159 as say customer service, if you have to integrate with 1178 01:08:02.559 --> 01:08:05.719 the APIs of of resistant corporations, many of which don't 1179 01:08:05.719 --> 01:08:07.960 even have an API, so you've got to make one, 1180 01:08:08.880 --> 01:08:17.039 and you've got to wade through legacy software that's extremely slow. If, however, 1181 01:08:17.199 --> 01:08:21.199 if AI can simply take whatever is given to the 1182 01:08:21.319 --> 01:08:24.960 outsourced customer service company that they already use and do 1183 01:08:25.079 --> 01:08:28.960 customer service using the apps that they already use, uh, 1184 01:08:29.279 --> 01:08:34.159 then you you have you can make tremands headway in 1185 01:08:34.239 --> 01:08:37.600 customer service, which is I think one percent of the 1186 01:08:37.640 --> 01:08:39.840 world economy something like that it's close to trillion dollars 1187 01:08:39.880 --> 01:08:43.319 all in for customer service, and and and and and 1188 01:08:43.479 --> 01:08:46.319 there's there's no there's no barriers to entry. It's just 1189 01:08:46.399 --> 01:08:48.359 you can just immediately say, well, we'll outsource it for 1190 01:08:48.399 --> 01:08:50.840 a fraction of the cost and there's no integration needed. 1191 01:08:51.000 --> 01:08:55.920 You can imagine some kind of categorization of intelligence tasks 1192 01:08:56.159 --> 01:08:59.159 where there is breath, where customer service is done by 1193 01:08:59.520 --> 01:09:02.359 very many people, but you know many people can do it. 1194 01:09:02.760 --> 01:09:05.560 And then there's difficulty where you know, there's a best 1195 01:09:05.640 --> 01:09:08.199 in class turbine engine, like presumably the ten percent more 1196 01:09:08.239 --> 01:09:11.039 fuel efficient turbine engine that could be imagined by an 1197 01:09:11.079 --> 01:09:13.840 intelligence but we just haven't found it yet, or you know, 1198 01:09:14.000 --> 01:09:16.119 g LP ones are just you know a few bites 1199 01:09:16.119 --> 01:09:16.520 of data. 1200 01:09:17.159 --> 01:09:19.520 Where do you think you want to play in this? 1201 01:09:19.880 --> 01:09:23.920 Is this a lot of you know, reasmably intelligent intelligence 1202 01:09:24.239 --> 01:09:28.399 or is it the very pinnacle of cognitive tasks? 1203 01:09:29.279 --> 01:09:31.600 Well, I was just using a customer service as like 1204 01:09:31.760 --> 01:09:35.279 something that's it's a it's a very significant revenue stream, 1205 01:09:36.199 --> 01:09:38.600 but one that is probably not super difficult to solve for. 1206 01:09:39.800 --> 01:09:43.159 So if you if you can emulate a human at 1207 01:09:43.199 --> 01:09:47.199 a at a desktop, that that's just literally what customer 1208 01:09:47.199 --> 01:09:52.680 service is, and you know it's people of average intelligence. 1209 01:09:52.680 --> 01:09:54.640 It's not like, you know, you don't need like somebody 1210 01:09:54.680 --> 01:09:59.079 who's's meant many many years. You don't need like, you know, 1211 01:10:01.680 --> 01:10:05.680 sort of several sigma good engineers for that. But but 1212 01:10:05.920 --> 01:10:08.840 obviously as you make that work, you can then once 1213 01:10:08.880 --> 01:10:13.520 you have computers working effectually digital optimists working, you can 1214 01:10:13.560 --> 01:10:17.319 then run any application like let's say you're trying to 1215 01:10:17.439 --> 01:10:22.319 design chips, so you could you could then run your 1216 01:10:22.399 --> 01:10:27.199 conventional apps, you know, like stuff from KNES and Synopsis 1217 01:10:27.279 --> 01:10:31.560 and whatnot, and you can say you can you can 1218 01:10:31.640 --> 01:10:34.720 run a thousand simultaneous or ten thousand and say okay, 1219 01:10:35.680 --> 01:10:38.159 given this airport, I get this output for the chip. 1220 01:10:39.720 --> 01:10:42.800 And at a certain point you can say, okay, you're 1221 01:10:42.800 --> 01:10:45.279 actually gonna know what the what the chip should look 1222 01:10:45.399 --> 01:10:51.279 like without using any of the tools. So basically you 1223 01:10:51.720 --> 01:10:53.920 should be able to do a digital chip design like 1224 01:10:54.359 --> 01:10:57.319 you can do trip design, like you watch up the 1225 01:10:57.680 --> 01:11:02.199 difficulty Cove. You could you know, be able to do 1226 01:11:02.680 --> 01:11:08.159 to CAD, so you know, you could do just like 1227 01:11:08.239 --> 01:11:10.640 sort of n X or any any of the CAD 1228 01:11:10.760 --> 01:11:12.000 software to design things. 1229 01:11:12.520 --> 01:11:14.479 Okay, so you think you started the simplest tasks and 1230 01:11:14.600 --> 01:11:15.279 walk your way up there. 1231 01:11:17.920 --> 01:11:20.479 So you're saying, look, as a broader objective of having 1232 01:11:20.560 --> 01:11:25.000 this full digital coworker or emulator, you're saying, look, all 1233 01:11:25.079 --> 01:11:28.479 the revenue maximizing corporations want to do this, actually being 1234 01:11:28.520 --> 01:11:31.079 one of them. But we will win because of a 1235 01:11:31.319 --> 01:11:35.760 secret plan we have. But like everybody is like trying 1236 01:11:35.800 --> 01:11:38.920 different things with data, different things algorithms, and I'm. 1237 01:11:38.840 --> 01:11:44.880 Like, what else can we do? 1238 01:11:46.880 --> 01:11:49.520 But uh yeah, it sounds like a competitive field, and 1239 01:11:49.560 --> 01:11:51.159 I'm like, what is how are you guys going to win? 1240 01:11:51.279 --> 01:11:55.560 Is like my my big question. You know, I I 1241 01:11:55.600 --> 01:11:57.399 think we see a path to do it. I mean 1242 01:11:57.439 --> 01:11:58.840 I think, I think, I know, I think I know 1243 01:11:59.800 --> 01:12:03.479 the have to do this because it's kind of the 1244 01:12:03.560 --> 01:12:05.600 same path that tells they used to create self driving. 1245 01:12:07.000 --> 01:12:12.279 Instead of driving a car's driving a computer screen, So 1246 01:12:12.640 --> 01:12:14.399 a self driving computer essentially. 1247 01:12:14.880 --> 01:12:18.319 Oh, you're saying, is the past just following human behavior 1248 01:12:18.359 --> 01:12:20.199 and trading on best conscious of human behavior? 1249 01:12:22.399 --> 01:12:25.800 But sorry, isn't that I mean, isn't that? Is that 1250 01:12:25.880 --> 01:12:28.000 a training? I mean, obviously I'm not going to spell out, 1251 01:12:28.359 --> 01:12:31.000 you know, most sensitive secrets on a podcast, you know, 1252 01:12:31.119 --> 01:12:33.000 and I need to have at least three more guinnesses 1253 01:12:33.039 --> 01:12:33.199 for that. 1254 01:12:33.800 --> 01:12:35.680 I've got some friends at Jane Straight and they're always 1255 01:12:35.680 --> 01:12:38.079 talking about how their colleagues are cooking up fun, fiendish 1256 01:12:38.119 --> 01:12:39.279 puzzles for each other to solve. 1257 01:12:39.680 --> 01:12:41.159 Well, last week they sent me one. 1258 01:12:41.399 --> 01:12:44.119 Basically, they trained a neural network and they gave me 1259 01:12:44.199 --> 01:12:46.520 the weights of each layer, but they didn't tell me 1260 01:12:46.680 --> 01:12:49.359 what order those layers went in, and so I had 1261 01:12:49.359 --> 01:12:52.199 to figure out the correct order using the outputs of 1262 01:12:52.279 --> 01:12:54.479 the original network. And as soon as I got this puzzle, 1263 01:12:54.520 --> 01:12:56.800 I went to my roommate who's an AI researcher, and 1264 01:12:56.920 --> 01:12:58.560 we both got immediately Nerd sniped. 1265 01:12:59.000 --> 01:13:00.800 Obviously, you can't brew force a solution. 1266 01:13:01.199 --> 01:13:03.880 The search space here is ten to the one twenty 1267 01:13:03.920 --> 01:13:07.600 two for mutations, so clearly you need some way to 1268 01:13:07.800 --> 01:13:10.159 reduce the search space. Then my roommate had to go 1269 01:13:10.239 --> 01:13:12.319 to work, but because I'm a podcaster, I had some 1270 01:13:12.399 --> 01:13:14.079 time to take a stab at some of the ideas 1271 01:13:14.119 --> 01:13:17.439 we discussed, and with the combination of simulating Anneeling and 1272 01:13:17.600 --> 01:13:20.319 greedy Sarge, I think it got pretty close. I think 1273 01:13:20.359 --> 01:13:23.159 I'm actually just a couple of swaps and shifts away 1274 01:13:23.199 --> 01:13:24.159 from the correct solution. 1275 01:13:24.640 --> 01:13:27.439 What makes this puzzle. Really tricky is that there's no 1276 01:13:27.720 --> 01:13:31.439 obvious way to escape from a local minimum. I'm afraid 1277 01:13:31.439 --> 01:13:33.640 that this is as far as vibe coding is going 1278 01:13:33.680 --> 01:13:35.960 to get me. But maybe you can do better. Check 1279 01:13:36.000 --> 01:13:39.600 out the puzzle at Jane street dot com slash to 1280 01:13:39.640 --> 01:13:43.119 our cash all right, back to elon, what. 1281 01:13:43.319 --> 01:13:46.119 Will Xai's business be like? Is it going to be 1282 01:13:46.279 --> 01:13:49.880 consumer enterprise? What's the mix of those things that's going 1283 01:13:49.920 --> 01:13:53.199 to be It's just going to be similar to other 1284 01:13:53.319 --> 01:13:56.439 labs for this, your saying lab makes sense. 1285 01:13:57.159 --> 01:14:03.239 Corporations goes dan slicing corporations. Those champions do not pay 1286 01:14:03.279 --> 01:14:06.840 for themselves exactly. But yeah, what's the business model? What 1287 01:14:07.039 --> 01:14:13.039 are the revenue streams In a few years time? I 1288 01:14:13.079 --> 01:14:15.960 think things are going to change very rapidly. Like I'm 1289 01:14:16.000 --> 01:14:19.359 staying in the obvious here, you know, I called Ai 1290 01:14:19.479 --> 01:14:27.159 the supersonic tsunami a level literation. So really, what's going 1291 01:14:27.239 --> 01:14:32.520 to happen is, especially when you have humanoid robots at scale, 1292 01:14:34.319 --> 01:14:37.439 is that they will just provide, They'll make products and 1293 01:14:37.479 --> 01:14:41.920 provide services far more efficiently than human corporations. So amplifying 1294 01:14:41.960 --> 01:14:45.439 the productivity of human corporations is simply a short term thing. 1295 01:14:46.239 --> 01:14:50.640 So you're expecting fully digital oral corporations rather than like 1296 01:14:50.720 --> 01:14:53.680 SpaceX becomes part AI, and I. 1297 01:14:53.680 --> 01:14:58.960 Think there will be digital corporations. But it's look, is 1298 01:14:59.039 --> 01:15:00.880 this some of some this is going to sound kind 1299 01:15:00.880 --> 01:15:04.359 of doomerish, Okay, but I'm just I'm just saying what 1300 01:15:04.439 --> 01:15:05.960 I think will happen. It's not it's not meant to 1301 01:15:05.960 --> 01:15:10.119 be doomrish or anything else, just just like this is 1302 01:15:10.159 --> 01:15:16.359 what I think will happen. Is that is that pure 1303 01:15:16.399 --> 01:15:22.880 AI corporations that are purely AI and robotics will vastly 1304 01:15:22.920 --> 01:15:28.279 outperform any corporations that have people in the lip. So 1305 01:15:28.399 --> 01:15:30.560 you can you can think of say like like like 1306 01:15:30.680 --> 01:15:34.079 computer used to be a job that humans had, that 1307 01:15:34.199 --> 01:15:36.239 you would go and get a job as computer where 1308 01:15:36.239 --> 01:15:41.439 you would do calculations, and that have like entire skyscrapers 1309 01:15:41.439 --> 01:15:45.039 full of humans, like you know, twenty thirty floors of 1310 01:15:45.319 --> 01:15:52.680 humans just doing calculations. Now that entire skyscraper of humans 1311 01:15:52.760 --> 01:15:58.800 doing calculations can be replaced by a laptop with a spreadsheet. 1312 01:15:59.520 --> 01:16:04.000 That's sheet can do vastly more calculations than in a 1313 01:16:04.079 --> 01:16:08.880 entire building full of human computers. So then you think 1314 01:16:08.880 --> 01:16:12.000 about okay, well, what if only some of the cells 1315 01:16:12.079 --> 01:16:14.199 in your if some of the cells in your spreadsheet 1316 01:16:15.039 --> 01:16:20.039 were calculated by humans, Actually, that would be much worse 1317 01:16:20.119 --> 01:16:21.960 than if all of the cells in your spreadsheet were 1318 01:16:21.960 --> 01:16:25.720 calculated by the computer. And so really what will happen 1319 01:16:25.880 --> 01:16:34.359 is the pure AI, pure robotics corporations or collectives will 1320 01:16:34.479 --> 01:16:37.640 far outperform any corporations that have humans in the loop. 1321 01:16:38.640 --> 01:16:39.880 And this will happen very quickly. 1322 01:16:40.319 --> 01:16:46.680 Speaking of closing the loop, sorry optimus, you I mean 1323 01:16:47.680 --> 01:16:49.600 as far as like manufacturing targets and so forth go, 1324 01:16:50.560 --> 01:16:54.439 your companies have sort of been like carrying American manufacturing 1325 01:16:54.760 --> 01:16:59.920 of heart attack on their back. But in the field 1326 01:17:00.319 --> 01:17:03.279 that you are, you know, Tesla has been dominant in 1327 01:17:03.720 --> 01:17:06.760 you're and now you want to go into humanoids. In China, 1328 01:17:06.840 --> 01:17:11.039 there's entire dozens and dozens of companies that are doing 1329 01:17:11.039 --> 01:17:14.720 this kind of manufacturing cheaply and at scale uh and 1330 01:17:14.800 --> 01:17:18.680 are incredibly competitive. So give us sort of like advice 1331 01:17:18.840 --> 01:17:21.560 or a plan of how America can build the humanoid 1332 01:17:21.840 --> 01:17:26.000 armies or you know, the evs et cetera, at scale 1333 01:17:26.279 --> 01:17:28.800 and as cheaply as as China is on tract to. 1334 01:17:29.720 --> 01:17:32.600 Well there they are really only three hard things for 1335 01:17:32.840 --> 01:17:41.000 human robots, the real world intelligence, the hand and scale manufacturing. Yeah, 1336 01:17:43.359 --> 01:17:48.399 so I haven't seen any even demo robots that have 1337 01:17:50.279 --> 01:17:52.439 a great hand, like with all the degrees of freaking 1338 01:17:52.479 --> 01:17:59.159 of a human hand, But optimists will have that. Optimist 1339 01:17:59.199 --> 01:17:59.640 does have that? 1340 01:18:00.239 --> 01:18:01.600 And how do you achieve that? Isn't just like right 1341 01:18:01.640 --> 01:18:03.640 torque definity the motor like what is the what is 1342 01:18:03.680 --> 01:18:04.439 the hardware bottle? 1343 01:18:04.520 --> 01:18:06.640 Like? To that, well, we have to where to design 1344 01:18:06.800 --> 01:18:16.840 custom custom actuators basically custom design motors, gears, uh, caro electronics, controls, sensors. 1345 01:18:17.079 --> 01:18:20.399 Everything had to be designed from physics first principles. There 1346 01:18:20.479 --> 01:18:23.600 is no supply chain for this and will be able 1347 01:18:23.600 --> 01:18:26.760 to manufacture those at scale? Yes, is anything hard to accept? 1348 01:18:26.800 --> 01:18:29.279 The hand from a manipulation point of view, or once 1349 01:18:29.319 --> 01:18:30.760 you've solved the hand, are you you good? 1350 01:18:31.159 --> 01:18:34.119 From an electro mechanical standpoint, the hand is more difficult 1351 01:18:34.159 --> 01:18:37.119 than everything else combined. The human hand turns out to 1352 01:18:37.159 --> 01:18:40.399 be quite something. But but then you also need the 1353 01:18:40.439 --> 01:18:45.199 real world intelligence. So the intelligence that tells us developed 1354 01:18:45.279 --> 01:18:51.680 for the car applies verywell to the roblot, which is 1355 01:18:52.239 --> 01:18:54.520 you know, primarily vision in but the car takes and 1356 01:18:54.560 --> 01:18:57.960 more vision, but also it actually also is listening for sirens, 1357 01:18:58.000 --> 01:19:02.640 it's you know, it's taking the inotural measurements, it's GPS signals, 1358 01:19:02.640 --> 01:19:05.439 a whole much of other data, combining that with video, 1359 01:19:05.479 --> 01:19:10.920 its primarily video, and then outputting the control commands. So 1360 01:19:11.039 --> 01:19:14.720 like like YOURTELA is taking in one and a half 1361 01:19:14.800 --> 01:19:18.520 kickobytes a second video and outpointing two kilobtes a second 1362 01:19:18.560 --> 01:19:24.439 of control control outputs with the video thirty six hurts 1363 01:19:24.479 --> 01:19:27.560 and the control for CONIAD eighteen. One intuition you could have. 1364 01:19:29.199 --> 01:19:33.319 Four when we get this robotic stuff is that it 1365 01:19:33.439 --> 01:19:35.439 takes quite a few years to go from the compelling 1366 01:19:35.520 --> 01:19:38.359 demo to actually being able to use in the real world. 1367 01:19:38.399 --> 01:19:41.359 So ten years ago you were really compelling demos of 1368 01:19:41.439 --> 01:19:45.039 self driving, but only now we have ROBOTAXI and Weimo 1369 01:19:45.119 --> 01:19:48.760 and all these services scaling up. Doesn't this Shouldn't this 1370 01:19:48.840 --> 01:19:53.800 make one pessimistic on say, household robots, because we don't 1371 01:19:53.840 --> 01:19:56.439 even quite have the compelling demos yet. I say they're 1372 01:19:56.439 --> 01:19:57.079 really advanced. 1373 01:19:57.119 --> 01:20:00.600 Hand well, we've been working on human to robots now 1374 01:20:00.640 --> 01:20:05.640 for a while, so I guess spend five or six 1375 01:20:05.720 --> 01:20:09.840 years or something like that, and and a bunch of 1376 01:20:09.920 --> 01:20:12.119 things that we've done for the car are applicable to 1377 01:20:12.359 --> 01:20:17.239 the robot. So we'll use the same testa AI chips 1378 01:20:17.319 --> 01:20:21.439 in the in the robot as the car. We'll use 1379 01:20:21.479 --> 01:20:26.159 it the same basic principles. It's very much the same AI. 1380 01:20:26.920 --> 01:20:28.920 You've got, you know, many more degrees of freedom for 1381 01:20:28.960 --> 01:20:32.239 a robot than you do for a car. But really, 1382 01:20:32.239 --> 01:20:34.159 if you just think of for like as like a 1383 01:20:34.199 --> 01:20:38.880 boot stream, AI is really mostly compression and correlation of 1384 01:20:39.119 --> 01:20:42.800 two butt streams. You're you know, so if for video 1385 01:20:42.800 --> 01:20:45.760 you've got to do a tremendous amount of compression and 1386 01:20:46.000 --> 01:20:49.079 and and you've got to do the compression just right, 1387 01:20:49.119 --> 01:20:53.960 you've better compress the like ignore the things that don't matter, 1388 01:20:54.000 --> 01:20:56.840 and and like you don't care about the details of 1389 01:20:56.880 --> 01:20:58.560 the leaves and the tree on the side of the road, 1390 01:20:58.840 --> 01:21:01.680 but you care a lot about the the road signs 1391 01:21:01.680 --> 01:21:05.279 and the traffic lights and the pedestrians and even where 1392 01:21:05.600 --> 01:21:08.359 you know somebody in another cars is looking at you 1393 01:21:08.479 --> 01:21:10.600 or not looking at you, like there's some of these 1394 01:21:10.720 --> 01:21:13.000 some of these details matter a lot. So if it 1395 01:21:13.159 --> 01:21:15.720 is essentially it's going to turn that with the car's 1396 01:21:15.720 --> 01:21:17.119 going to turn that one and a half gigabytes a 1397 01:21:17.119 --> 01:21:21.119 second ultimately into two kilobytes second of control outputs, so 1398 01:21:22.159 --> 01:21:26.199 many stages of compression, and you got to get all 1399 01:21:26.199 --> 01:21:28.720 those stages right and then correlate those to the correct 1400 01:21:28.720 --> 01:21:31.560 control outputs. The robot has to do essentially the same thing. 1401 01:21:31.800 --> 01:21:33.640 And you think about what what humans? This is what 1402 01:21:33.680 --> 01:21:37.520 happens with humans. We really are photons in controls out, 1403 01:21:38.439 --> 01:21:41.119 so that that is the vast majority of your your 1404 01:21:41.199 --> 01:21:45.960 life has been vision photons in and then motor controls out. 1405 01:21:47.039 --> 01:21:51.159 Naively, it seems like between humanoid robots and cars, the 1406 01:21:51.439 --> 01:21:54.039 fundamental actuators in a car are like how you turn 1407 01:21:54.119 --> 01:21:56.399 and how you accelerate, et cetera. And in a robot, 1408 01:21:56.520 --> 01:22:00.159 especially with maneuver arms, there's dozens and dozens of these 1409 01:22:00.479 --> 01:22:02.960 degrees of freedom. And then especially with Tesla, you had 1410 01:22:02.960 --> 01:22:05.359 this advantage of like you had millions and millions of 1411 01:22:05.479 --> 01:22:09.239 hours of human demo data collected from just the car 1412 01:22:09.359 --> 01:22:11.560 being out there, where like you can't equivalently just deploy 1413 01:22:11.640 --> 01:22:13.840 optimists that don't work and then get the data that way. 1414 01:22:13.880 --> 01:22:17.640 So between the increased degrees of freedom and the far 1415 01:22:17.800 --> 01:22:22.079 sparser data, yes, let's go, how will you use the 1416 01:22:22.760 --> 01:22:28.000 sort of Tesla engine of intelligence on to train the 1417 01:22:28.039 --> 01:22:32.720 optimist mind. Now you're you're actually you're highlighting an important 1418 01:22:32.800 --> 01:22:36.079 limitation and difference between cars is like we we do 1419 01:22:36.239 --> 01:22:38.399 have oh we'll goon have like ten million cars on 1420 01:22:38.439 --> 01:22:43.760 the road, and so uh, that's it's hard to duplicate 1421 01:22:43.840 --> 01:22:51.199 that like massive training flight flywheel. For the robot. What 1422 01:22:51.359 --> 01:22:53.720 we're going to need to do is build a lot 1423 01:22:53.800 --> 01:22:55.359 of robots and put them in kind of like an 1424 01:22:55.399 --> 01:22:58.439 Optimist academy so they can do self play in reality. 1425 01:22:59.800 --> 01:23:02.560 So we're actually we're actually pulling that out, so we 1426 01:23:02.680 --> 01:23:06.800 can have at least ten thousand Optimus robots, maybe twenty 1427 01:23:06.880 --> 01:23:09.159 or thirty thousand that can do that, that are doing 1428 01:23:09.239 --> 01:23:15.000 self play and testing different tasks. And then the Tellesla 1429 01:23:16.479 --> 01:23:20.760 has quite a good reality generator, like the physics accurate 1430 01:23:20.840 --> 01:23:23.680 reality generator that we made this full of cars. We'll 1431 01:23:23.680 --> 01:23:26.479 do the same thing for the robots. And I actually 1432 01:23:26.520 --> 01:23:32.800 have done that for the robots. So you have a 1433 01:23:32.880 --> 01:23:36.640 few tens of thousands of humanoid robots doing different tasks, 1434 01:23:36.800 --> 01:23:39.560 and then you've got you can do millions of simulated 1435 01:23:39.640 --> 01:23:44.520 robots in the simulated world, and you use the tens 1436 01:23:44.560 --> 01:23:47.079 of thousands of robots in the real world to close 1437 01:23:47.159 --> 01:23:50.560 the simulation to reality gap, close the some material gap. 1438 01:23:51.079 --> 01:23:54.760 How do you think about the synergies between Xai and Optimists, 1439 01:23:54.760 --> 01:23:56.680 given you're highlighting, look, you need this world model. You 1440 01:23:56.800 --> 01:23:59.479 maybe want to use some really smart intelligence. Is the 1441 01:23:59.479 --> 01:24:03.159 control player and so maybe GROC is like doing the 1442 01:24:03.239 --> 01:24:05.399 slower planning and like the motor policy. 1443 01:24:05.159 --> 01:24:07.960 Is a little lower level. Yeah, what will the sort 1444 01:24:07.960 --> 01:24:13.079 of synergy between these things be? Yeah, so you just 1445 01:24:13.640 --> 01:24:18.359 GROCK would orchestrate the behavior of the Optimus robots. So le, 1446 01:24:18.439 --> 01:24:23.720 let's say you wanted to build a factory the then Optimists, 1447 01:24:23.880 --> 01:24:29.720 and then GROC could UH organize the optimost robots, give 1448 01:24:29.760 --> 01:24:33.439 them a sign them tasks UH to build the factory 1449 01:24:33.479 --> 01:24:35.640 for to produce whatever you want. Don't you need to 1450 01:24:35.720 --> 01:24:38.079 merge x Ai and Tessa then because these things end up? 1451 01:24:38.119 --> 01:24:42.119 So what are we saying only about all the company discussions? Well, 1452 01:24:42.119 --> 01:24:43.439 we're one, we're Gonnas in the elon. 1453 01:24:46.960 --> 01:24:49.640 What are you waiting to see before you say we 1454 01:24:49.760 --> 01:24:52.239 want to manufacture one hundred thousand Optimists? 1455 01:24:52.359 --> 01:24:56.840 Is it like Optimi? So since we're defining the proper nound, 1456 01:24:56.840 --> 01:24:59.039 we could define the pearl of the prop and noun too. 1457 01:24:59.640 --> 01:25:01.920 So we we're going to prop a dound the plural 1458 01:25:02.000 --> 01:25:02.800 and so it's optimize. 1459 01:25:02.840 --> 01:25:06.479 Okay, is there something on the hardware side do you 1460 01:25:06.520 --> 01:25:08.199 want to see? Do you want to see better actuators 1461 01:25:08.359 --> 01:25:09.800 or is it just you want the software do better? 1462 01:25:10.000 --> 01:25:12.039 Whatever you're waiting for before we get like mass manufacturing 1463 01:25:12.239 --> 01:25:12.600 Gen three. 1464 01:25:13.239 --> 01:25:16.720 Now we're moving towards that, we're going forward with semester manufactory. 1465 01:25:17.239 --> 01:25:20.479 But you think current current hardware is good enough that 1466 01:25:20.840 --> 01:25:22.159 you are going to you should you just want to 1467 01:25:22.159 --> 01:25:25.560 deploy as many as possible now, I mean it's very 1468 01:25:25.600 --> 01:25:28.840 hard to scale up production. But uh yeah, but I 1469 01:25:28.920 --> 01:25:32.119 think Optimus three is the right version of the robot 1470 01:25:32.239 --> 01:25:37.439 to you know, to produce maybe something on the order 1471 01:25:37.479 --> 01:25:40.119 of like a million units a year. I mean you 1472 01:25:40.119 --> 01:25:41.640 do want to go to Optimus four before you went 1473 01:25:41.680 --> 01:25:43.239 to ten millions a year, okay, but you can do 1474 01:25:43.279 --> 01:25:45.399 a million year at Optimist three. Uh yeah, I mean 1475 01:25:45.439 --> 01:25:51.159 it's very hard to spillet manufacturing. Yes, so like manufacturing. Uh, 1476 01:25:52.920 --> 01:25:56.680 like the the output period of time is always follows 1477 01:25:56.720 --> 01:26:00.359 at s cove, so it's at agonizingly slow. Then has 1478 01:26:00.640 --> 01:26:03.680 this sort of the eventually expecial increase then linear than 1479 01:26:03.720 --> 01:26:07.439 a than a you know logarithmic outcome to you sort 1480 01:26:07.439 --> 01:26:11.159 of eventually as it's a number. But optimists initial production 1481 01:26:11.239 --> 01:26:13.800 will be it's going to be a it's going to 1482 01:26:13.800 --> 01:26:16.600 be a stretched out s cove because so much of 1483 01:26:16.800 --> 01:26:19.039 what goes into Optimus is brand new. There's not an 1484 01:26:19.079 --> 01:26:22.960 existing supply chain. As I mentioned, the actually is like 1485 01:26:23.000 --> 01:26:27.199 trying to everything in the office robot is designed for 1486 01:26:27.319 --> 01:26:29.800 physics first principles, it's not. It's not taken from a catalog. 1487 01:26:30.439 --> 01:26:35.159 These these are custom designed everything, literally everything. I don't 1488 01:26:35.199 --> 01:26:37.119 think there's a single thing I done. How far down 1489 01:26:37.159 --> 01:26:40.760 the does aco I mean, I guess we're not making 1490 01:26:40.800 --> 01:26:47.880 custom capacitors yet maybe, but but there's there's there's nothing 1491 01:26:47.920 --> 01:26:51.039 you can pick out of a catalog at any price. 1492 01:26:52.079 --> 01:26:55.920 So so it just means that the the the optimistes cove, 1493 01:26:57.199 --> 01:27:02.920 uh the units units per awkward perion of time, how 1494 01:27:02.960 --> 01:27:06.840 many optics robusts you make per day. Whatever is is 1495 01:27:06.880 --> 01:27:11.680 gonna initially wrap slower than a product where you have 1496 01:27:11.880 --> 01:27:15.079 an existing supply chain, but it will get to a million. 1497 01:27:15.399 --> 01:27:18.159 When you see these Chinese humanoids, like Industry or whatever 1498 01:27:18.840 --> 01:27:22.079 sells humanoidsed for like six K or thirteen K, do 1499 01:27:22.159 --> 01:27:26.319 you just like are you hoping to get your optimisms 1500 01:27:26.399 --> 01:27:28.680 bill of materials below that price so you can do 1501 01:27:28.760 --> 01:27:30.359 the same thing, or do you just think qualitatively they're 1502 01:27:30.399 --> 01:27:32.520 not the same thing, Like what do you think is going? 1503 01:27:32.640 --> 01:27:35.479 Like what allows it? What allows them to self for solo? 1504 01:27:35.600 --> 01:27:39.199 And can me match that? Well, optimists, Our optous is 1505 01:27:39.560 --> 01:27:43.960 signed to have a lot of intelligence and to have 1506 01:27:44.079 --> 01:27:47.319 the same electro mechanical texterity, if not higher than a human. 1507 01:27:47.920 --> 01:27:52.640 So untry does not have that. And it's also i mean, 1508 01:27:52.680 --> 01:27:54.640 it's it's quite a it's quite a big robot. It's 1509 01:27:54.640 --> 01:27:58.600 just it's this matter it has to do, you know, 1510 01:27:58.840 --> 01:28:02.800 carry heavy objects for long periods of time and not 1511 01:28:02.920 --> 01:28:07.159 overheat or exceed the power of its sactuator. So so 1512 01:28:07.199 --> 01:28:10.720 we've got we've got, we've got you know, it's five eleven, 1513 01:28:10.840 --> 01:28:15.560 you know, it's pretty tall, and it's it's got a 1514 01:28:15.600 --> 01:28:17.640 lot of intelligence. So it's going to be more expensive 1515 01:28:17.760 --> 01:28:22.479 than a small robot that is not intelligence but more capable. Yeah, 1516 01:28:23.199 --> 01:28:25.800 a lot more. I mean, like we think is over time, 1517 01:28:26.600 --> 01:28:30.840 as often Showbus often robots, the class will drop very quickly. 1518 01:28:31.399 --> 01:28:34.840 And what will these first billion optimists of some eye, Yeah, 1519 01:28:35.079 --> 01:28:37.640 do like bottle of their highest and best use. 1520 01:28:37.600 --> 01:28:39.920 Be I think that you would start off with with 1521 01:28:40.000 --> 01:28:42.000 simple tasks that you can count on them doing well. 1522 01:28:42.159 --> 01:28:45.319 But in the home or in factories, like the best 1523 01:28:45.439 --> 01:28:51.800 useful robots in the beginning won't be anything any continuous operations, 1524 01:28:51.840 --> 01:28:54.279 only twenty four VI seven operation because then you're because 1525 01:28:54.600 --> 01:28:55.880 then they can work continuously. 1526 01:28:56.000 --> 01:28:57.880 Yeah, what fraction of the work in a giga factory 1527 01:28:58.119 --> 01:29:00.159 that is currently done by humans going to gend three do? 1528 01:29:02.000 --> 01:29:06.159 I'm I'm not sure. Maybe it's like ten bay more, 1529 01:29:06.239 --> 01:29:09.199 I don't know it's it. We would, we would use 1530 01:29:09.720 --> 01:29:11.840 We would not like reduce our headcount. We would we 1531 01:29:11.880 --> 01:29:14.560 would for sure it can increase our headcount to be clear, 1532 01:29:15.359 --> 01:29:18.920 but but we would increase our output. So the the 1533 01:29:19.800 --> 01:29:23.319 units produced per human, like total to total number humans 1534 01:29:23.319 --> 01:29:28.159 at teston will increase, but the the output of robots 1535 01:29:28.239 --> 01:29:34.319 and cars will increase, will increase disproportionate like much much. Yeah, 1536 01:29:35.640 --> 01:29:38.960 number of cars and robots produced per human will increase dramatically, 1537 01:29:39.239 --> 01:29:40.960 but number of humans will increase as well. 1538 01:29:42.079 --> 01:29:48.239 We're talking about Chinese manufacturing a bunch here, and we're 1539 01:29:48.319 --> 01:29:50.920 also talking about you know, we've talked about some of 1540 01:29:51.039 --> 01:29:52.880 the policies that are ele US. 1541 01:29:52.960 --> 01:29:55.399 Like you mentioned the the solar tariffs. 1542 01:29:55.520 --> 01:29:58.399 Yeah, and you think they're a bad idea because you know, 1543 01:29:58.479 --> 01:30:00.199 we can scale up so over in the US. 1544 01:30:00.399 --> 01:30:04.520 Well, just electricity output in the US needs to scale up, right, 1545 01:30:04.680 --> 01:30:08.960 you can with thus like goodsources to get it somehow. Yeah. 1546 01:30:09.119 --> 01:30:11.560 But where I was going with this is if you 1547 01:30:11.640 --> 01:30:13.439 were in charge, if you were setting all the policies, 1548 01:30:14.119 --> 01:30:15.560 what else would you change? 1549 01:30:18.000 --> 01:30:21.159 So you change the solar tariffs, Yeah, I would say 1550 01:30:21.680 --> 01:30:25.760 anything that is limiting factor for electricity needs to be addressed, 1551 01:30:25.760 --> 01:30:27.800 provided it's not like very bad for the environment. 1552 01:30:27.800 --> 01:30:30.079 So presumably some permissing reforms and stuff as well, we'll 1553 01:30:30.119 --> 01:30:30.479 be in there. 1554 01:30:30.600 --> 01:30:32.880 Yeah, there's a fair bit of permitting reforms that are happening. 1555 01:30:33.199 --> 01:30:36.600 A lot of the permitting is state based, so but 1556 01:30:36.920 --> 01:30:39.720 anything but but but this this administration is is good 1557 01:30:39.760 --> 01:30:45.319 at removing permaning roadblocks. And I'm not saying all tariffs 1558 01:30:45.319 --> 01:30:48.399 are bad. I'm just saying because so so Yeah, yeah, 1559 01:30:48.399 --> 01:30:51.680 I mean sometimes if like if another country is subsidizing 1560 01:30:51.960 --> 01:30:55.359 the output of something, then then you have to have 1561 01:30:55.520 --> 01:31:00.239 countervailing tariffs to protect dovestic industry against some see is 1562 01:31:00.239 --> 01:31:02.880 by another country. What else would you change? I don't 1563 01:31:02.920 --> 01:31:04.560 know if there's not much that the government can actually 1564 01:31:04.640 --> 01:31:05.520 do well. 1565 01:31:05.880 --> 01:31:07.880 One thing I was wondering is it seems like the 1566 01:31:08.920 --> 01:31:15.239 for the policy goal of creating a leaves for the 1567 01:31:15.359 --> 01:31:18.640 US versus China, it seems like the export bands have 1568 01:31:18.800 --> 01:31:23.279 actually been quice impactful or China is not producing leading 1569 01:31:23.359 --> 01:31:26.960 edge chips and the export bands really by there China 1570 01:31:27.039 --> 01:31:31.560 is not producing leading edge turbine engines. And similarly, there's 1571 01:31:31.560 --> 01:31:33.319 a bunch of export bands that are relevant there on 1572 01:31:33.359 --> 01:31:37.039 some of the metallurgy. Should there be more export bands, 1573 01:31:37.159 --> 01:31:39.000 like as you think about things like when there are 1574 01:31:39.079 --> 01:31:41.399 now the drone industry and things like that, But is 1575 01:31:41.479 --> 01:31:42.840 that something they should be considered? 1576 01:31:43.279 --> 01:31:45.399 Well, I think it's imporant to appreciate that in most 1577 01:31:45.479 --> 01:31:50.039 areas China is very advanced to actually there's only a 1578 01:31:50.079 --> 01:31:56.159 few areas where it is not. The China is a 1579 01:31:56.199 --> 01:31:59.880 manufacturer of horhouse next level like people don't it must 1580 01:31:59.920 --> 01:32:02.800 be it's very impressive. Yeah, yeah, I mean, if you 1581 01:32:02.880 --> 01:32:08.520 if you take like refining of ore, i'd say roughly, 1582 01:32:08.640 --> 01:32:12.680 China there's more just twice as much or refining of 1583 01:32:14.399 --> 01:32:19.119 on average as the rest of all combined. And I 1584 01:32:19.159 --> 01:32:21.760 think there's there's some areas, like say refining gallion which 1585 01:32:21.840 --> 01:32:24.960 goes into solar cells. I think there are like ninety 1586 01:32:25.000 --> 01:32:29.000 eight percent of gallum refining. So so China is actually 1587 01:32:29.079 --> 01:32:32.239 very advancing manufacturing in i'd say most areas. 1588 01:32:32.520 --> 01:32:35.560 It seems like we're like there is discomfort with this 1589 01:32:35.880 --> 01:32:38.840 supply chain dependence and the ash. Nothing's really happening on it. 1590 01:32:39.479 --> 01:32:42.159 Supply chain, supply chain. It depends on say like the 1591 01:32:42.199 --> 01:32:43.640 Galleon refining that you're saying. 1592 01:32:43.760 --> 01:32:46.359 Yeah, yeah, there's there's there's there's a there's all the 1593 01:32:46.479 --> 01:32:50.239 rare rare earth stuff, and yeah, where else we're sure, 1594 01:32:50.800 --> 01:32:53.600 as you know, not rare like we actually do rare 1595 01:32:53.680 --> 01:32:58.680 earth or mining in the US. Send the the the rock, 1596 01:33:00.079 --> 01:33:02.600 put it on a train, and then from the boats 1597 01:33:02.680 --> 01:33:06.399 China does another train and that goes to the where 1598 01:33:06.479 --> 01:33:09.960 with refining refiners in China who then refine it, put 1599 01:33:10.000 --> 01:33:11.680 it into a magnet, put it in just a modus 1600 01:33:11.680 --> 01:33:13.840 ofb assembly, and then set it back to America. So 1601 01:33:14.119 --> 01:33:17.680 the thing we're really missing a lot of ore refining 1602 01:33:18.560 --> 01:33:22.760 in America. And isn't this worth a policy intervention? Yes, well, 1603 01:33:24.079 --> 01:33:26.680 I think there are some things being done on that front, 1604 01:33:28.000 --> 01:33:34.039 but we kind of need optimists frankly to build our refineries. 1605 01:33:35.399 --> 01:33:37.479 So sorry, you think the main advantage is China has 1606 01:33:37.600 --> 01:33:41.039 is the abundance of skilled labor and that that that's like, 1607 01:33:41.279 --> 01:33:43.560 that's the thing optimist fact says. But they also we 1608 01:33:43.600 --> 01:33:46.000 need four times our populations. 1609 01:33:45.520 --> 01:33:47.640 But we need so I mean, there's this concern if 1610 01:33:47.640 --> 01:33:50.720 you think that humans are the future, that like, okay, 1611 01:33:51.079 --> 01:33:54.159 right now, if it's the skilled labors for manufacturing that's 1612 01:33:54.279 --> 01:33:57.640 determining who's who can build more humanoids. You know, China 1613 01:33:57.680 --> 01:34:00.600 has more of those and manufactures more humanoids, therefore it 1614 01:34:00.720 --> 01:34:02.920 gets it gets the optimized future first. 1615 01:34:04.000 --> 01:34:06.399 Well, it just like keeps that eximential going. 1616 01:34:06.520 --> 01:34:08.000 It seems like you're sort of pointing out that sort 1617 01:34:08.039 --> 01:34:12.560 of getting to a million optimize, Yeah, requires the manufacturing 1618 01:34:12.600 --> 01:34:14.159 that the optimized supposed to help us get to. 1619 01:34:14.880 --> 01:34:18.079 Right, you can you can close that recoursal loop pretty 1620 01:34:18.119 --> 01:34:21.680 quickly with a small number of optimize. Yeah, so you 1621 01:34:21.800 --> 01:34:24.960 close the close recurse of loop to help help the 1622 01:34:25.039 --> 01:34:28.239 robots buill the robots, and then we can, you know, 1623 01:34:28.319 --> 01:34:29.960 try to get to tens of millions of units. You're 1624 01:34:30.920 --> 01:34:32.960 maybe if you start getting too hundreds of millions of 1625 01:34:33.039 --> 01:34:35.720 units a year, I think you're you're going to be 1626 01:34:35.760 --> 01:34:38.640 the most competitive country by far. We definitely count win 1627 01:34:38.720 --> 01:34:41.680 with just humans because China has four times of population, right, 1628 01:34:41.840 --> 01:34:43.680 and frankly, America has been warning for so long that 1629 01:34:44.199 --> 01:34:46.239 you know, just like a like a post sports team 1630 01:34:46.239 --> 01:34:48.319 that's been warning for a very long time, tend to 1631 01:34:48.319 --> 01:34:51.880 get complacent and entitled, and that's why they stop winning 1632 01:34:52.560 --> 01:34:56.800 because it's, you know, don't work as hard anymore. So 1633 01:34:56.920 --> 01:35:00.800 I think the frankly, it just is the average work 1634 01:35:00.800 --> 01:35:02.960 ethic in China is higher than in the US. So 1635 01:35:03.000 --> 01:35:04.720 it's not just that there's four times the population, but 1636 01:35:04.800 --> 01:35:06.600 the work, the amount of work that people put in 1637 01:35:06.800 --> 01:35:10.399 is higher. So you can, like, you can try to 1638 01:35:10.439 --> 01:35:13.319 rearrange the humans, but you're still one quarter of the 1639 01:35:14.680 --> 01:35:18.359 you know, it's assuming that that productivities, that health is 1640 01:35:19.079 --> 01:35:20.640 the same, which I think actually it might not be. 1641 01:35:21.000 --> 01:35:25.319 They China might have advantage on productivity per person. We 1642 01:35:25.399 --> 01:35:27.840 will do one quarter of the amount of things as China, 1643 01:35:28.560 --> 01:35:31.680 so we can't win on the human front. And our 1644 01:35:31.720 --> 01:35:35.880 worth rates spent low for a long time, so our 1645 01:35:35.920 --> 01:35:38.800 birth rates spent the US birth rates spent low replacement 1646 01:35:39.439 --> 01:35:46.039 since roughly nineteen seventy one, so we've got a lot 1647 01:35:46.039 --> 01:35:50.039 of people retiring or you know, more people dying than 1648 01:35:50.960 --> 01:35:53.680 we're close to sort of more people domestically dying than 1649 01:35:53.760 --> 01:35:57.640 being born. So we definitely can't win on the human front, 1650 01:35:57.680 --> 01:35:59.760 but we might have a shot at the row wrote front. 1651 01:36:00.199 --> 01:36:02.560 Are there other things that you have wanted to manufacture 1652 01:36:02.600 --> 01:36:05.560 in the past but they've been too labor intensive or 1653 01:36:05.600 --> 01:36:08.119 too expensive that now you can come back to that 1654 01:36:08.159 --> 01:36:12.079 and say, oh, we can finally do the whatever because 1655 01:36:12.119 --> 01:36:14.520 we have optimists. Yeah, I think we'd like to do 1656 01:36:14.720 --> 01:36:19.359 more both more or refineries at Tesla. So we just 1657 01:36:19.439 --> 01:36:26.720 completed construction and have begun liftium refining without litium refinery 1658 01:36:26.840 --> 01:36:31.760 and Corpus Christi, Texas. We have a nickel refinery which 1659 01:36:31.800 --> 01:36:36.439 is called the Cathode. Uh that's here in Austin. And 1660 01:36:37.880 --> 01:36:40.079 these are these are the largest is the largest cathode. 1661 01:36:40.399 --> 01:36:43.800 There's the largest cathod refinery, largest liftingum refinery, the largest 1662 01:36:43.840 --> 01:36:50.039 nekelink and lifting refinery outside of China. And it's like 1663 01:36:50.159 --> 01:36:53.720 they know, the Cathote team would say, like, we have 1664 01:36:54.239 --> 01:36:58.079 the largest and the only actually cather refinery in America. 1665 01:36:58.720 --> 01:37:00.920 Many superatives not just the just but it's also the 1666 01:37:01.159 --> 01:37:04.560 moly so it was pretty big, even though it's the 1667 01:37:04.640 --> 01:37:07.880 only one. But I mean there are other things that 1668 01:37:09.239 --> 01:37:14.920 you know, you could do a lot more refineries and 1669 01:37:15.119 --> 01:37:18.880 and help the the help America being more competitive on 1670 01:37:19.399 --> 01:37:23.560 refining capacity. So so that there's like there's basically a 1671 01:37:23.600 --> 01:37:26.800 lot of work for the Optimity to do that that 1672 01:37:27.000 --> 01:37:30.439 most Americans, very few Americans, frankly wanted to. I mean, 1673 01:37:30.479 --> 01:37:34.319 i've I've Actually it's the refining work too dirty. It's 1674 01:37:34.399 --> 01:37:37.880 it's not it's actually, no, we don't. There's not we 1675 01:37:37.920 --> 01:37:41.960 don't have toxic commissions from the refinery or anything. The 1676 01:37:42.039 --> 01:37:45.199 Catholic make refinery is right right sort of in Travis County. 1677 01:37:45.319 --> 01:37:48.079 Like why can't I mantes from why can't you with humans? No? 1678 01:37:48.479 --> 01:37:50.600 You can you find out of humans? I see, Okay, yeah, 1679 01:37:51.520 --> 01:37:53.279 Like no matter what you do, you have one quarter 1680 01:37:53.399 --> 01:37:55.479 number of humans in America in China. So if you 1681 01:37:55.800 --> 01:37:57.319 help them do this thing, they can do the other thing. 1682 01:37:58.039 --> 01:38:00.800 So so then then well, how do you how do 1683 01:38:00.800 --> 01:38:03.000 you build this refining refining capacity? Well you can do 1684 01:38:03.000 --> 01:38:07.720 it with the Optimaya and not many, not very many, 1685 01:38:08.000 --> 01:38:11.560 not very many Americans. Thanks for listening. See you in 1686 01:38:11.640 --> 01:38:12.560 the next episode.