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Speaker 1: Frankly, I'm just loving watching this from the theater of

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having an alpha male just kind of stomp around the

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world doing whatever he feels like, and everybody else just

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get in line. Is It's hilarious. You know, I'm really

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having fun watching Trump because he is totally in his element.

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Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where

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you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else

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to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever. Go to Financial Survivalnetwork

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dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial

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Survival Network now more than ever.

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Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to and watching the Financial

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Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie Leutz where with John Rabino.

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It's been a while, John, Like, I don't even know

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where to pick up with you that so much has

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happened in a few short weeks since we last spoke.

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You know, it's just one of those things. So we

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got to start someplace. I guess interest rates, because everything

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goes from interest rates, right hey, Cary.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, there's a lot happening. We're kind of in the

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middle of a revolution right now. On several different levels,

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financial and political, geopolitical, and the indust rate thing is

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normally that's kind of a dry topic, but at the

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extremes of financial cycles, interest rates become really important. And

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what might be happening now is that, well, we had

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interest rates spike because we had inflation in twenty twenty two,

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and now higher interest rates are draining a lot of

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indebted entities, like governments went from having zero interest rates

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on their bonds in a lot of cases two three, four,

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five percent. Now that they've got to pay that spiking

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interest expense is spiking deficits, which means the debt goes

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up year after year at an accelerating rate, and so

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you enter kind of a death spiral. And the US,

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big chunks of Europe and Japan have all kind of

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entered that period now where the central banks are kind

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of either thinking about cutting interest rates or trying to

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cut interest rates, but it's not working. The bond markets

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are demanding higher and higher interest rates from governments that

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are falling more and more deeply into debt. And if

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that turns out to be the case, in other words,

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if governments lose control of interest rates, then we are

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in a death spiral. You know, that's the end of

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this financial system because interest rates will keep going up

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and that'll scare bond investors even more, and in rates

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will go up even further, and we won't have any

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tools for stopping that. So let's, you know, pay attention to,

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for instance, Japan's thirty and forty year bonds. Who would

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lend money to a government for forty years or fifty years?

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That's crazy, but they do that, and the interest rates

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on those bonds are going straight up. They're just spiking.

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And in the US, what is it our thirty year

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that's our longest term bond, and that's above five percent now,

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and five percent is a deadly interest rate for a

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lot of sectors of the economy. So big deal, Let's

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pay attention and see where it goes. But it's potentially

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a black Swan event.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. We also had a recent bond rating cut in

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the US.

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Speaker 1: Yeah that in normal times wouldn't make any difference because

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Fitch and Standard and Ports have already cut the US

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credit rating from perfect to one notch below perfect, and

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now Moodies came along did the same thing, which since

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the other two rating agencies had already done that shouldn't

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have been an earthquake. But when things start to turn,

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you know, when the psychology of the market goes from

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lass to anxious, then things that wouldn't have been a

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big deal in the past become a big deal. And

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that might be the case with this. But you know,

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the real question is isn't why are they cutting the

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credit rating for the US? It's why was the US

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a triple A credit when the government has debt equal

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to one hundred and twenty five percent of GDP and

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that just scratches the surface of its actual indebtedness. You know,

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we're a banana republic mathematically right now, So you wouldn't

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expect the US to have a perfect credit rating, and

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the markets are starting to recognize that now. So it

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could be that the latest credit rating cut for the

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US is just the beginning of a long series that

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take us down to our intrinsic credit rating, which would

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be somewhere in the BS I think, you know, not

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ceas yet, but somewhere in the BEES.

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Speaker 3: So you know, interesting thing about credit ratings I realize,

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other than when I lived in New York City, every

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place I ever lived in have triple A bond rating

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and triple A credit rating, So there's definitely something to it.

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Bond ratings. They're not important, right until they are important,

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one of those things, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Yeah, I mean it facilitates borrowing very cheaply, which

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is kind of kind of the problem as well as

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the benefit, because if you're incentive to borrow a lot

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of money because money is so cheap, like I feel

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that way, you know, back when mortgages were like two

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and a half percent, I really thought about just going

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out and buying a house because I felt almost morally

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obligated to take that cheap money that they were offering.

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But it's the same thing for governments. I mean, if

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you let them borrow very cheaply, then there's this whole

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of things they can do to steal elections and otherwise,

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you know, spend money on things that matter to them,

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and so they'll go out and do it, and then

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that leads them over and debted and near bankruptcy. New

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York City has been near bankruptcy a couple of times.

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And yeah, yeah, and so Florida, where you are now,

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is phenomenally well run and in good shape financially, but

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that won't last if people in Florida are overconfident and

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start borrowing a lot of money. There's a saying attached

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to this, something like low interest rates are the cause

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of high interest rates or something like that. In other words,

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if you borrow a lot of money, your financial viability

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deteriorates and then your interest rate goes way up, and

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it was the result really of those low interest rates

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to begin with. So we're there a lot of big

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entities out there, sovereign governments, sovereign bond markets are looking

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like they're on the verge of a crisis. So we

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got to see how that plays out. And we also

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have to think about how how you invest for something

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like that, because spiking interest rates are, for instance, not

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good for gold and silver because they compete with bonds,

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and if bonds yield seven percent and gold yields nothing,

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then it's tough competition. But if there's a bond crisis

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that leads central banks to really aggressively ease somehow, then

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that's good for gold and silver because all that extra

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money sloshing around has to go somewhere, and it partially

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goes into precious metals. So I don't know from a

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gold bugs perspective what I think about what's happening right now,

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whether it's good news, whether it's a sign to go

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out and buy gold and silver, or whether it's a

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sign to pull back and wait for the second stage

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of the process. So we're gonna have to see it,

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and I don't know what to do exactly right.

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Speaker 3: Now, all right, So we have to update an old

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financial truism here which says the best cure for for

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high price the best cure juice. Now my age is

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kicking in here, but the best the best thing for

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high prices is to bring low prices. You know, I

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know what.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know that's saying exactly I tried to do

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a version of it just now. But it's a it's

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a hard one because as you as you start saying it,

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you realize you might not have it exactly right. And

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when you finish what you think you're going to say,

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it's not the right thing. And it's one of those sayings.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, best cure for low prices is low prices.

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The best cure for low rates is low rates because

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you get so much act there into the system and

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then and then the rates go up because the defaults

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go up, the risk gets higher, and the nest cure

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for high rates is high.

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Speaker 1: Rates, right, Yeah, yes, the higher the better eventually. Yeah,

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but it's it's that the valley you might have to

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go through on the way to gold Bug Paradise. You know,

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I'm just not sure because you know, stocks are historically overvalued.

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Real estate is crazy overvalued in a lot of markets.

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You know, house prices are just forty percent higher than

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they should be based on people's incomes. So if you

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raise interest rates, you crash a lot of overvalued assets.

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And the question is what's the number, you know, what's

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the ten year treasury yield that crashes the stock market?

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And we don't really know, but I suspect five percent

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would have a lot of people speculating about it. So

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we're not far from that. We we could have one

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bad week in the bond market and we're at five

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percent for the ten year treasury. So so this is

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possibly one of the a short term thing. Normally we

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talk about long term trends, Harry, you know, but this

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might be a next week kind of thing.

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Speaker 3: It could happen any moment here. Let's face it, and

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let's tie that in with Trump. Uh, we've had I

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guess we're jeez, we're at one hundred what is that

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for one hundred and twenty days since he was inaugurated,

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almost to the day. I don't know if things have

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gotten better or worse, but they sure as heck have

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gotten a lot more interesting, haven't they.

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Speaker 1: John Frankly, I'm just loving watching this from the theater

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of having an alpha male just kind of stomp around

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the world doing whatever he feels like and everybody else

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just get in line. Is It's hilarious? You know, I'm

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really having fun watching Trump because he is totally in

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his element. You saw the Middle East trip just.

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Speaker 3: Later here, oh man reba art bit. They rolled up

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the camels, the horse emials.

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Speaker 1: That's right, they had a camel, paid for it.

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Speaker 3: Why didn't they put it in one of those carriers

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like an emperor and just carry him across.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's probably saving that for some other visit

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to another country, but it's it's probably something that might happen.

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And they gave him a four hundred million dollar yet

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for yeah, and and and and so he gets back

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here and the press is like, well, isn't that corrupt

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that you're accepting these giant presents from people and He's like,

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they offered it to me. What am I supposed to

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say except thank you?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's an insult, right insult to them.

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Speaker 1: And so he and he and he totally skates.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 1: The press is like, well, you know, there's nothing we

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could do about it, So okay, let's move on to

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the next thing. Are you really gonna run again in

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twenty twenty eight, you know? But yeah, it's fun to watch.

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He's accomplishing a lot in these visits. He's he's because

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everybody he visits is obligated to invest in the United

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States in some way. That's sort of the price of admission.

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They have to, yeah, send three hundred billion dollars or

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a new car factory or something like that back to

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the US. And that's good, that's very that's very good

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for us here. So so yeah, he's he's accomplishing a

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lot of stuff. He's closed down the border. He's uh,

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he's ripping DEI out of big institutions by the roots.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so he will one other thing, Uh, you know,

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we're talking about the border and all that. The deficit

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has actually decreased, you know, as a result of more

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tariff revenue coming in and less theft, because why don't

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they just say Doge is there to get rid of theft,

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because it's theft. I mean, why do we have to

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call it fraud abuse, whatever, it's theft? Call it for

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what it is. I mean, I'm a grand scale.

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Speaker 1: DOGE found out that a big chunk of the political

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class is participating in a gigantic money laundering scheme now

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involving NGOs and and quasi governmental agencies that aren't really

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part of the government, but they kind of are at

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the same time, and they're they're providing all these sinecures

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for out of work political class people, swamp creatures, you know,

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and they're all making huge amounts of money because the

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initial capital comes from the government, comes from taxpayers, and

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then it just gets spread out. You know, the Clinton Foundation,

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for instance, it was either the Clinton Foundation or USAID

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gave Chelsea Clinton something like thirty million dollars. Yeah, how

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could that happen?

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Speaker 3: You know, and and for her wedding, right, yeah, yes, yeah.

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Speaker 1: And so that you know, take that and then multiply

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it by thousand, and you get the graft that is

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now going on out there. So if DOGE doesn't do

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anything else, never cuts any spending at actual departments or anything.

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The fact that they identified this criminal activity, this wandering

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that's going on, is very good, you know. And if

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if we start purp walking some of these people into courthouses,

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that's gonna helpait phenomenal.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: But at the same time, it looks like the deep

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state has gotten to a lot of Trump's people, So

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we're gonna have to see. So did you see Dan

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Bongino and Cash Ptel speaking together. They were interviewed together

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just in the.

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Speaker 3: Last get that already, right?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, they said Epstein killed himself, and there was something else.

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There was another thing that was that they all along

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have been saying something different and now they started saying

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the thing that the deep state wants them to say.

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So the question is who got to them and how?

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And yeah, well, I mean which of their children did

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they see Ia threatened to till or something like that. Oh,

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they will totally do that, you know, because if if

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you're in government and your kid gets into a car wreck,

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there's no way to trace that back to the CIA

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or or any number of other horrible things happening to him.

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So I mean they could just what is it, Kilberden.

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Speaker 3: The Tesla is it driving right into a into an embankment.

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Speaker 1: And you know, the CIA has the capability of hacking

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into self driving cars. I'm taking over right that that

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capability exists out there somewhere and somebody bad has it.

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So we're just seeing the beginning of that as a

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control threat. So so anyhow, Yeah, there's just so much

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going on right now.

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Speaker 3: Or what Tavy Let's say, maybe they didn't really mean

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it and they're just playing the script until they turn

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the script on the players could be.

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Speaker 1: Here's hoping, you know, because we still got We've got

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the Epstein files out there. We've got all kinds of

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things that Kennedy was supposed to do as far as

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vaccines go, and food additives and stuff like that, and

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he had to compromise a lot of his goals in

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order to get through the Senate, you know, to be

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actually approved by the Senate. So we don't know how

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much is just promises he had to make if he

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doesn't do the things he says he's going to do,

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so we'll see. I mean, so much still has to happen,

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but so much has happened. So from a political theater standpoint,

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this is hilarious. From a good governance standpoint, there are

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positive things to point to. So I'd give Trump his

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first hundred days, one hundred and twenty days. And as

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you know, because there's chaos, a lot of bad things

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are happening, but he's accomplishing some really big things.

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Speaker 3: Well.

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Speaker 1: The biggest, of course, is that if he keeps war

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from breaking out in Ukraine or the Middle East, that

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alone is that alone makes himigrant president. You know, if

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he gets us through the next few years without a

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nuclear war with Russia, China or Iran, big deal. And

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he seems to be trying that, although it looks like

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Israel is trying to get a green light to bomb

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Iran's nuclear plants, and that would be a black swan.

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If something like that happens, I would be bad.

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Speaker 3: But yes, but let's talk about China, because so Trump

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is pushing for a resolution to the Ukraine Russia war.

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When push comes to show, Zelenski will have to toe

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the line or we'll do what we did in Vietnam.

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Bao Dao remember him. It just yes, we.

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Speaker 1: Assassinated the head of South Vietnam because we didn't like him, That's.

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Speaker 3: Right, And that was a bill from there.

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Speaker 1: That was actually John Kennedy, who was generally seen as

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a pro peace president. You know, that's what got him killed.

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That he didn't want to fight all the wars that

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the deep state wanted to.

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Speaker 3: Play it, so certainly one of the reasons.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, but so even he is capable of

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doing something like that. So you know, if Kennedy's capable

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of assassinating somebody, somebody that they don't like, Trump is

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truly that.

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Speaker 3: These guys are like this Gordon Coke on the train, John,

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that's so great. Yeah, the bag is there, and then

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Macron gently hides it and the other guy hides the spoon,

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and it's like, no wonder, no wonder. If the world's

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such a mess, everybody's high, you know.

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Speaker 1: And and it's not a surprise at all. These guys,

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the people running Europe are just flat out degenerates, with

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the exception of the lady in Italy. I like her.

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Yeah she's a guy in Hungary too, Oh Victor Orburn Sorry,

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but see he's not really running Europe. He's he's standing

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on the sideline saying Nope, we're not going to do that. Nope,

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we're not going to do that. And they're they're telling

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the world destroy you if you don't do that, and

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so I you know, I hope he survives and becomes

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the template for European leaders with a little bit less authoritarianism.

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But but there guy's running the big countries, you know,

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and the UK and France. It's not a surprise at

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all to see them hanging out doing coke on the

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train while they're trying to supposedly keep us from out

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of World War three. You know, they're coke is probably

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actually good if you're a warmonger, right, because that would

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that would fire you up to ship those long range

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missiles to Ukraine.

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Speaker 3: What the hell? Yeah, and so that's psychosis.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, So so it's not a surprise given how

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they are most times. You know, these guys basically actively

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want to start World War three. Oh yeah, probably because

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they want to distract their populace from the mistakes they've

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made in running the country. I mean, you can't have

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open borders for a decade and then get reelected. You

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just can't do that if you're honest. So you have

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to steal the election post ten years of open borders,

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and you do that in a couple of ways. You

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make your political opponents illegal, which they've done in France,

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they're trying to do in Germany about Romania.

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Speaker 3: Romania, they did that to the guy then.

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Speaker 1: They yeah, but then they let a populist run. He

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looked like he was going to win, and then he lost,

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So they probably just stole that election.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well they removed him from the ballot, I thought,

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or declared No, they declared the election invalid.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but then he won and then they yeah, they

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had a new election. They let an ally of the

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guy that they banned run as a populist, as a

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you know, a maga Republican kind of guy, and they

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let the election happen. And that guy was winning big

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going into election day, and then he lost by a

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pretty sizable margin when the actual votes were counted. So

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that sounds an awful lot like twenty twenty in the US.

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Speaker 3: You know, this is a template around the world, Bolsonaro.

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Anyone you don't like who appears to be a populist

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who might actually want the best for his country immediately

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gets or not immediately, but over he's removed by with

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extreme prejudice or law fair in their corrupt court system.

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You know, the US is beginning. The court system is

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beginning to look a lot like every other country's. One

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thing I wanted to go over though, So you know

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that if China withdrew its backing from Russia, the war

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would be over in three months because they wouldn't be

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able to sell their oil and it would be over

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for Russia. They would have to seriously think about ending

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the whole ploy. I think that's what's happening behind the

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scenes with the China US trade negotiations, because if the

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US embargoes all Chinese te whether it's through a tariff

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or they just say no more, the US will find

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a way to find get most of the other stuff.

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You know, the rare earths are hard because not because

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they're rare, but because the production. We've allowed China to

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monopolize it. But that can be resolved. They probably have

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a stockpile of all that stuff, all the unobtainium right

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that we don't even know about. So the question is

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those negotiations. China is behind the eight ball, their economies imploding,

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both the economy and their infrastructure from all the tofu

382
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drag construction, and we see signs that they're closing down

383
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the fentanyl labs and the precursor companies they're doing. It

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was a deal really made, and effectively we gave China

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ninety days to prove that they're going to live by it.

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Speaker 1: Well, no doubt the US is trying to separate China

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and Russia because that's a scary alliance. The US nightmare alliance,

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of course is Germany, Russia and China. And you know,

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we were kind of heading in that direction before we

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blew up the nord Stream tube pipeline. But yeah, I'm

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not sure what you would have to give China and

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Russia though, to to you know, break the diplomatic bonds

393
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that they've created, because they're doing a lot of financial,

394
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diplomatic and trade stuff together and that's really good for them.

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And how far will they trust the US, Like if

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they blow each other off and and you know kind

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of sort of alie with the US, how long can

398
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they trust us to keep that promise? So I don't know.

399
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I think the US would have to offer those guys

400
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a lot to make it both while because we're not trustworthy.

401
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Speaker 3: You have to understand that China and Russia really aren't

402
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natural allies. They flowed a war against each other China

403
00:24:00,079 --> 00:24:05,079
would ideally like to colonize Siberia to Siberia is a

404
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:09,680
land without people, and China is a people without land,

405
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:14,799
and there's resources there. All this and there's a lot

406
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of historic because China views Siberia as one of their

407
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lost provinces from some ancient thing when probably a couple

408
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of guys went there and made you know, Chinese food,

409
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and they claimed it for their own. But they're not

410
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really natural allies. We pushed them together, so separating them.

411
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If we bring Russia back into swift, bring it back

412
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into the world you know of you know, the World

413
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Community of Nations, I think that's enough to pull them apart.

414
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Agreeing not to put NATO in Ukraine and allowing them

415
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to keep what they have and basically removing Zelenski one

416
00:25:00,440 --> 00:25:04,640
means or another. Russia would be happy because they really

417
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:08,039
don't like China. There's no love between these two countries

418
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since since when it was in the sixties when they

419
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had their break because they didn't like each other's form

420
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of communism. So it's going to be really interesting to

421
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see if my theory's correct. I think it is, because

422
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I think there was a lot more that took place

423
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in those negotiations in Switzerland between the US and China,

424
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:34,079
than they're talking about the rampant ip theft. And you

425
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:38,119
haven't heard China making many threats against Taiwan lately either,

426
00:25:38,319 --> 00:25:41,839
the last one with some military maneuver around the island

427
00:25:42,200 --> 00:25:46,000
and planes buzzing it like I think it's closed two

428
00:25:46,079 --> 00:25:48,200
months ago. That was the last thing you heard about

429
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:50,519
in the papers. But you have seen a lot if

430
00:25:50,559 --> 00:25:55,799
you watch those YouTube channels of basically China's industrial economy

431
00:25:56,039 --> 00:26:03,480
shutting down literally factories, unpaid workers, civil unrest. It's not

432
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something they can afford. It's not something she can afford.

433
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,119
I think we're going to see a change in leadership

434
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in China in the near future, John, we'll see that.

435
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Speaker 1: Okay, what you're describing would be really good, But this

436
00:26:19,720 --> 00:26:23,279
sounds like a big ask because you know that the

437
00:26:23,319 --> 00:26:26,720
recent history, I mean, NATO has poisoned so many wells

438
00:26:26,759 --> 00:26:32,960
and everything. But the other thing with dictatorships is that

439
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:37,119
the guy in charge usually tries to stay for too

440
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,960
long and then there's chaos when he leaves. Finally, and

441
00:26:42,559 --> 00:26:45,279
you know, both g and Putin have been in power

442
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for a long time and there's no obvious successor so

443
00:26:49,079 --> 00:26:51,640
you get the potential for a civil war when either

444
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one of them leaves or is deposed or whatever, and

445
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so you can't really you can't necessarily trust them. I mean,

446
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you might be able to trust promise from Putin, but

447
00:27:01,759 --> 00:27:04,680
how long will Putin be there? And so you can't

448
00:27:04,839 --> 00:27:08,799
know who's going to come next, and so so there's

449
00:27:08,839 --> 00:27:10,519
more chaos no matter what kind of a deal we

450
00:27:10,519 --> 00:27:15,319
cut right now, there is more turmoil coming, I think,

451
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,680
just because you know, the world has so many dictators

452
00:27:21,079 --> 00:27:25,759
in powerful places that aren't going to go easily, and

453
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,920
so when it happens, yeah, so so in other words,

454
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,359
the end of history is not anywhere near, but there's

455
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:34,960
still going to be a lot of crazy stuff going

456
00:27:35,000 --> 00:27:37,200
on out there. But I would I'd be happy if

457
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,319
we just don't knew each other for the next ten years.

458
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:41,759
You know, if we avoid a nuclear war for ten years,

459
00:27:42,079 --> 00:27:45,079
that would be a pretty big win considering where we

460
00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:46,519
started three years ago.

461
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:52,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, interesting times. May we live in interesting times

462
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:56,039
and that we definitely are. So if you want to

463
00:27:56,880 --> 00:28:00,400
check it out, go to John Substack orbino dots stack

464
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,759
dot com. I actually set up a substack recently, but

465
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:05,920
don't worry about that the links are all in the

466
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,920
show notes and book meant to tell you John. The

467
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:14,039
book the world, according to Martin Armstrong conversations with the

468
00:28:14,079 --> 00:28:19,640
master forecast are passing one thousand copies probably tomorrow sold

469
00:28:20,079 --> 00:28:23,079
with no giveaways, no discounts, no nothing that people just

470
00:28:23,200 --> 00:28:27,400
buying the book, great reviews, links in the show notes.

471
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:30,839
You can find it in Amazon or wherever fine books

472
00:28:30,920 --> 00:28:34,759
used to be sold. And John, we'll catch up with

473
00:28:34,799 --> 00:28:36,200
you in a few weeks. Be well.

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00:28:36,319 --> 00:28:38,039
Speaker 1: Thanks Gerry, take care, thanks.

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to today's trying times. For the latest, go to Financial

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