1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,160 Speaker 1: NFL Week eleven, We're gonna hit on those primetime games. 2 00:00:04,240 --> 00:00:07,639 We gotta see if those dogs are coming alive during 3 00:00:07,679 --> 00:00:09,679 the Barking Dog segment to see who can actually win 4 00:00:09,759 --> 00:00:13,320 out right this week Seam Report with VR the Deli 5 00:00:13,640 --> 00:00:16,719 five no last week thirty two and seventeen on the 6 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,679 season and of course those best bets up next on 7 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:38,960 bet on It. Kelly Stewart here Yonni the Greek Marco 8 00:00:39,200 --> 00:00:43,240 DiAngelo ready to break down NFL Week eleven for you guys. 9 00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:46,560 We're gonna get started. Thursday night football looks to be well, 10 00:00:46,960 --> 00:00:49,240 that's an awful Thursday night football game, but it can't 11 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:52,159 be much worse than what we saw Thursday night last 12 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:54,840 week with my Denver Broncos, who did get it done 13 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:58,359 for me in Survivor. Now this week, VR, I'm kicking 14 00:00:58,399 --> 00:01:01,119 myself for not having New England Availa Survivor because they're 15 00:01:01,119 --> 00:01:03,479 an eleven and a half point home favorite to the 16 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:05,319 New York Jets total forty three. 17 00:01:05,239 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: And a half. 18 00:01:06,120 --> 00:01:08,879 Speaker 3: Indeed, and now high's thirteen and a half right now, 19 00:01:08,959 --> 00:01:12,959 kel so that line's jumping up higher on New England. 20 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:16,439 Speaker 4: The look ahead was like what eleven or ten and 21 00:01:16,480 --> 00:01:16,920 a half? 22 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:21,680 Speaker 3: Even that got hit and no surprise, Listen, I didn't 23 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:23,599 get to the window with New England. Just want to 24 00:01:23,640 --> 00:01:27,120 make that disclaimer. I do think it's the right side. 25 00:01:27,599 --> 00:01:27,879 Speaker 4: Listen. 26 00:01:27,879 --> 00:01:31,200 Speaker 3: New England's done a phenomenal job of not just winning 27 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,319 football games, but completely outperforming the betting market. 28 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:35,959 Speaker 4: That's the bottom line. 29 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 3: It's a very efficient market and this team just continues 30 00:01:39,599 --> 00:01:42,239 to outperform and it's hard to get in front of that. 31 00:01:42,400 --> 00:01:45,640 Like you expected to correct itself. But I don't think 32 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:47,840 this is the game because you're getting the Jets team 33 00:01:48,159 --> 00:01:52,400 that's also coming in back to back winners, back to 34 00:01:52,519 --> 00:01:56,239 back covers. They've covered three of their last four and 35 00:01:56,359 --> 00:01:58,799 I think that's why they brought a little a short 36 00:01:58,959 --> 00:02:05,840 price out on New England kind of Thursday night unsexy game, 37 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:07,920 a low total as well. 38 00:02:07,959 --> 00:02:10,080 Speaker 4: They haven't played each other yet this year. 39 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:13,599 Speaker 3: New England's owned the series one eight of the last ten, 40 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:16,520 covered eight of the last ten, seven of the last ten. 41 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,960 Speaker 4: Again, I don't think that changes. Bottom line. 42 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:23,639 Speaker 3: Jets are worst team in football, second or third as 43 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,400 far as my power ratings go. They've had an easy 44 00:02:26,479 --> 00:02:29,159 strength of schedule. In fact, they've had the twenty sixth 45 00:02:29,240 --> 00:02:32,319 toughest schedule, so only a handful of teams had an 46 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:35,800 easier schedule, and yet they don't even have a top 47 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,400 twenty five offense or a top twenty five defense. 48 00:02:38,439 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 4: They're in the bottom five in both of those. 49 00:02:42,680 --> 00:02:44,599 Speaker 3: It's as bad of a team as you're gonna get 50 00:02:44,680 --> 00:02:47,199 right now, and they're going up against a killer in 51 00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,439 New England that's just doing everything right. Like usually, I 52 00:02:50,439 --> 00:02:54,280 would think I'm looking to fade this team because you 53 00:02:54,319 --> 00:02:57,719 would think they'd be overvalued, but obviously from the move 54 00:02:57,759 --> 00:03:00,240 on this opener, that just isn't the case. And they've 55 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:01,919 had an easy strength of schedule, and I think that's 56 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,000 why wise guys kind of avoided them during this run 57 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,199 and the market hasn't caught up because they've had the 58 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:11,759 easiest out of every team, they've had the easiest strength 59 00:03:11,759 --> 00:03:13,960 of schedule, and yet when you look at them offensive 60 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,800 and defensively, they're barely top fifteen in both categories. 61 00:03:18,240 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 4: So they're getting w's, but they're not lighting up the 62 00:03:22,080 --> 00:03:22,759 box score. 63 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:27,199 Speaker 3: They're outperforming the betting market covering ats, but they're not 64 00:03:27,680 --> 00:03:31,199 again getting it done on the stat sheet except for 65 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,360 a quarterback that's you know, top six now top seven 66 00:03:35,840 --> 00:03:39,919 in passing success rate, which really matters going against a 67 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:42,360 Jets quarterback, which you know is at the bottom of 68 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:46,360 the pack. So for me, it's New England lay. The 69 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:49,439 points market kind of got away from us. I don't 70 00:03:49,479 --> 00:03:51,800 think I'll get to the window with it, but it's 71 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:52,960 New England or pass for me. 72 00:03:53,879 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 1: Much as I complained about the Thursday night football game, 73 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:59,000 I think the Monday night football game might have been worse. 74 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:03,039 But so Philadelphia came out of Lambeau with a win 75 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,360 and a cover, even as a very public underdog. They've 76 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,919 now won and covered three straight and since Week six 77 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:13,280 of last season, Eagles thirteen and one straight up eight 78 00:04:13,319 --> 00:04:16,360 and six against the spread at Lincoln Financial Field. So 79 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:18,639 I'm breaking down this game. I'm trying to look at 80 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:21,439 it and make some sense of it. Right, we know 81 00:04:21,639 --> 00:04:26,879 Dan Campbell underdog eleven and two. He also took over 82 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:29,560 play calling last week, and while that might appear that 83 00:04:29,639 --> 00:04:31,959 was a win, it was against the Commander, so let's 84 00:04:32,000 --> 00:04:34,879 take that with a grain assault. Both teams have major 85 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:37,319 concerns on the offensive line, so look at the injury 86 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,079 reports as of Wednesday morning. 87 00:04:39,399 --> 00:04:40,920 Speaker 2: Tons of offensive linemans not. 88 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,720 Speaker 1: Only on the Lions, but also on the Eagles are 89 00:04:43,759 --> 00:04:46,560 banged up. I'm just gonna take the easy way out here. 90 00:04:46,639 --> 00:04:46,800 Speaker 2: You know. 91 00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:48,480 Speaker 1: Our producer Dan said, Kelly, I can't wait for your 92 00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:51,560 breakdown this game. I'm like, breakdown, I'm gonna. 93 00:04:51,319 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 2: Tease the Lions. What do you mean? How can I not? 94 00:04:54,600 --> 00:04:56,480 Speaker 1: Yes, the total is a little high for your traditional 95 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:58,560 long teaser, but I think I'm just gonna take the 96 00:04:58,560 --> 00:05:03,600 wollo see way out. Eagles performing better than I expected 97 00:05:03,639 --> 00:05:08,439 this season. Lions have had some couple of question marks, right, 98 00:05:08,480 --> 00:05:11,519 but we know that's a team that bounce us back well. 99 00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:14,439 And we saw him bounce back well last week against 100 00:05:14,439 --> 00:05:15,720 the Commander's off a loss. 101 00:05:15,920 --> 00:05:18,000 Speaker 2: Dan Campbell's a dog. I want to take him here, 102 00:05:18,439 --> 00:05:19,680 just on the money line. But why not. 103 00:05:19,759 --> 00:05:22,800 Speaker 1: I'm sit back, relax, get him up over the touchdown 104 00:05:22,959 --> 00:05:25,560 there in Philadelphia, Marco. 105 00:05:25,439 --> 00:05:27,439 Speaker 2: DiAngelo, you get Monday night football. 106 00:05:27,480 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: And I don't know whose idea this one was, but 107 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,040 the Dallas Cowboys already three and a half point road 108 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:33,879 favorite there in Las Vegas. 109 00:05:34,000 --> 00:05:35,279 Speaker 2: Total fifty and a half. 110 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,079 Speaker 5: Yeah, Kelly, you know, and I always talk about bad teams, 111 00:05:39,079 --> 00:05:41,199 and I say that you know when a season, you know, 112 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,879 has been bad. There's two types of games that they're 113 00:05:44,920 --> 00:05:47,600 going to show up for a division game when they 114 00:05:47,600 --> 00:05:51,839 can play spoiler or a national standalone TV game. Well, 115 00:05:51,879 --> 00:05:54,240 for the Raiders last week, they were in both of 116 00:05:54,240 --> 00:05:59,240 those situations on the road at Denver on Thursday Night 117 00:05:59,319 --> 00:06:02,279 Football and almost pulled the upset off. It was as 118 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:06,279 ugly as you could see of a game, obviously with 119 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:11,240 that ten to seven final score. But you know, I 120 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:15,480 don't see them getting up again after playing that game 121 00:06:15,759 --> 00:06:19,120 last week at Denver. Yeah, they're coming back home. It 122 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:22,560 is the Cowboys, They've got that name. But there's so 123 00:06:22,639 --> 00:06:26,040 many problems with this Raider team. I just can't look 124 00:06:26,079 --> 00:06:30,120 at them. And for whatever reason, Pete Carroll will not 125 00:06:30,639 --> 00:06:35,360 take Geno Smith out of the game. He was literally 126 00:06:35,519 --> 00:06:39,519 a statue just standing back there in the pocket at 127 00:06:39,519 --> 00:06:41,360 the end of that game. He was so banged up 128 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:45,319 he couldn't move around. He was taking sacks. I can't 129 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,040 back this team. Now, we look at a Cowboys team. 130 00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:50,959 They're coming off the bye weeks, they've had extra time 131 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,560 to prepare. But there's also you know the situation that 132 00:06:54,879 --> 00:06:57,800 occurred during the bye week. This will be the first 133 00:06:57,800 --> 00:07:00,800 time the team takes the field since you know, the 134 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:09,160 tragedy with the player Marshawn Keenland being you know, passing 135 00:07:09,199 --> 00:07:12,319 away the team. You never know how a team is 136 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,839 going to respond to a situation like that. But we've 137 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:19,199 seen more often than not in the past that these 138 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:22,759 teams kind of use this game. You know, they bring 139 00:07:22,839 --> 00:07:26,439 their best effort, whether it is because they're three and 140 00:07:26,439 --> 00:07:30,959 a half four hours of distraction, whether it's honoring you know, 141 00:07:31,079 --> 00:07:34,920 the person that passed away. Whatever, we see decent efforts, 142 00:07:35,360 --> 00:07:37,279 and I think you're going to see that from the 143 00:07:37,319 --> 00:07:41,759 Cowboys on the national stage on Monday. Yes, the Cowboys 144 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:45,079 defense is horrible, I know that, But if you watch 145 00:07:45,519 --> 00:07:49,480 the Raiders offense, do you really think the Raiders are 146 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:54,240 going to exploit that weakness, Not with Gino Smith banged up, 147 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:57,720 not with the only one playmaker on offense, and at 148 00:07:57,759 --> 00:08:01,079 being rocked by hours, which gets the double team constantly. 149 00:08:01,560 --> 00:08:04,439 I'm gonna go ahead and take the offensive weapons of 150 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:08,680 Dallas and have them score enough points to out do 151 00:08:09,319 --> 00:08:12,519 the Raiders. This is play more against the Raiders than 152 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,759 it is a play with the Cowboys. But I got 153 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:18,560 the Cowboys winning on Monday Night Football twenty eight to seventeen. 154 00:08:18,639 --> 00:08:21,439 Let's go ahead and lay the points with the Cowboys. 155 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the only way I can look at that 156 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,720 one as well, marcov are anything you've ether seeing on 157 00:08:27,759 --> 00:08:31,759 the team side of things for NFL Week eleven. 158 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:35,720 Speaker 3: Indeed, let's dive right into some of those sides that 159 00:08:36,039 --> 00:08:40,279 did get followed through three stuck out that are getting 160 00:08:40,279 --> 00:08:41,799 a lot of public money as well. 161 00:08:42,399 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 4: Start off with Kansas City for seventy three. 162 00:08:45,039 --> 00:08:47,759 Speaker 3: The look ahead was two and a half that got hit, 163 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,840 and then the three opener got hit as well, which 164 00:08:50,840 --> 00:08:54,720 is why you're looking at number above that key. 165 00:08:54,919 --> 00:08:56,080 Speaker 4: For sixty five. 166 00:08:56,120 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 3: Chargers, they were actually a dog on the look ahead 167 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:02,519 that got hit while it was before the games had 168 00:09:02,559 --> 00:09:04,879 even started, so they were at a one point favorite. 169 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:07,080 Brought them out at one and a half that got hit. 170 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:09,799 Two and a half got hit. That's why you're looking 171 00:09:09,799 --> 00:09:13,960 at key number for the Chargers. Dog that got followed 172 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:18,039 through as well. Four fifty seven Cincinnati plus six and 173 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:20,559 a half look ahead and then the sixth opener got 174 00:09:20,639 --> 00:09:25,159 hit also. Now two that look at least on paper 175 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,960 like they got steamed, but only the look ahead. I 176 00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:30,200 have not seen any follow through, and they are two 177 00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:33,879 popular signs. First, Miami four point fifty two, the look 178 00:09:33,919 --> 00:09:36,039 ahead two and a half is what got hit. That's 179 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:39,120 why you're looking at a key number right now. And 180 00:09:39,159 --> 00:09:43,600 then also four fifty five Tampa Bay the six look 181 00:09:43,639 --> 00:09:47,039 ahead got hit, but no follow through on either of 182 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,399 those games, So make sure you pay attention to that 183 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:53,240 on your Odds Logic screen. Click that number, look at 184 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,840 what it was on the Sunday that the week games 185 00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:59,759 that the games are going on, look at that following 186 00:09:59,799 --> 00:10:03,000 win and see then on Monday is their follow through 187 00:10:03,039 --> 00:10:05,519 on somebody's That'll tell you some of the stronger signs 188 00:10:05,519 --> 00:10:05,840 for you. 189 00:10:06,879 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna get right into those barking dogs, 190 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:13,279 a segment that's done very well for this S crew, hopefully. 191 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:16,679 Speaker 2: Continuing that run. I'm gonna let Marco. 192 00:10:16,519 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 1: DiAngelo go first here, mainly because he took my barking dog. 193 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:22,200 Speaker 2: Let's just say it. 194 00:10:25,399 --> 00:10:27,679 Speaker 4: I know he's always first at a window. He's always 195 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:28,440 first at a window. 196 00:10:28,559 --> 00:10:34,039 Speaker 5: Marco, Well, can I say, Kelly yoh, you snooze? You 197 00:10:34,159 --> 00:10:35,840 lose great? 198 00:10:36,639 --> 00:10:41,639 Speaker 4: I ain't got shipped on Marco. 199 00:10:40,759 --> 00:10:43,600 Speaker 5: Uh barking dog. We're looking at Denver plus the four 200 00:10:43,639 --> 00:10:47,279 against Kansas City. This is going to be the public 201 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,519 perception play of the week. I want to tell you 202 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:54,360 something about how high everybody is on Kansas City. Okay, 203 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:58,919 and I talked to two different bookmakers in the past week, 204 00:10:59,320 --> 00:11:02,000 and you know, just you know, jokingly, he said, you know, 205 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:06,600 going into last week, the favorite to win the Super 206 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:11,639 Bowl was the Kansas City Chiefs. Still at the books, Okay, 207 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:15,600 we talked about Westgate, we talked about you know, like stations. 208 00:11:15,639 --> 00:11:20,240 I talked to both of those sports operators, and it's 209 00:11:20,399 --> 00:11:24,120 if this season would have ended last Sunday, do you 210 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:26,039 know the team that's a favorite to win the Super 211 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,840 Bowl wouldn't even be in the playoffs. Kansas City. They've 212 00:11:29,879 --> 00:11:32,600 got them a four point favorite on the road because 213 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,480 basically this is their season. If they don't win this game, 214 00:11:36,519 --> 00:11:41,120 they have basically zero shot of winning the division because 215 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:43,480 Denver will be up three and a half games. I 216 00:11:43,519 --> 00:11:47,759 don't I just don't see this number being this high. 217 00:11:47,919 --> 00:11:52,840 I realize Kansas City is playing better football now than 218 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:54,840 they were at the beginning of the season. I get that. 219 00:11:55,480 --> 00:12:00,559 I also get Denver looked horrible on Thursday Night football. 220 00:12:00,879 --> 00:12:04,360 But we talked about that game. Last week. Denver was 221 00:12:04,440 --> 00:12:08,279 playing their third game in eleven days. They were playing 222 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,279 the Raiders. If you Remember I gave out the under 223 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,639 on the show last week because I said Denver's gonna 224 00:12:13,679 --> 00:12:16,039 just want to get in and get out. I ended 225 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:18,120 up giving my clients the Raiders in that game. I 226 00:12:18,159 --> 00:12:20,759 didn't want any part of Denver last week. It was 227 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:24,279 all about this week, and that's what I'm looking at. 228 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:27,279 You've got a five and four Kansas City team is 229 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:31,919 a four point road favorite to eight and two Denver. Now, ha, 230 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:34,600 Denver over exceeded. Have they won a couple games that 231 00:12:34,639 --> 00:12:38,000 they shouldn't have won. Yeah, I'll admit that, but they're 232 00:12:38,039 --> 00:12:40,159 still eight and two, and they're at home, and they're 233 00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:43,720 an underdog in a division game, not doing it. And 234 00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,840 Kansas City has not been able to run the football. 235 00:12:47,039 --> 00:12:49,120 They're not gonna be able to run the football against 236 00:12:49,159 --> 00:12:51,799 Denver as well. They're gonna have to win this game 237 00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,919 through the air. Yeah, Bo Nicks is taking a step 238 00:12:55,000 --> 00:12:58,000 back from last year. I get that, But I'm gonna 239 00:12:58,039 --> 00:13:01,120 trust the defense. I'm not gonna say that they're necessarily 240 00:13:01,200 --> 00:13:04,480 the better defense because Kansas City's pretty good, but they 241 00:13:04,519 --> 00:13:07,879 ain't bad. I'm gonna take Denver plus the four at 242 00:13:07,879 --> 00:13:10,399 home twenty three to twenty. 243 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:13,679 Speaker 1: Denver, all right, Vierre's got the biggest dog this week 244 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:17,120 and maybe one of the uglier dogs the board. 245 00:13:17,639 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 2: Go ahead and tell us why you like the Cleveland Browns. 246 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:22,279 Speaker 1: You just have to know that you're gonna have to 247 00:13:22,320 --> 00:13:24,000 face the comments section for it later. 248 00:13:24,120 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 3: Bring it, bring it, Bring you bring I was off 249 00:13:26,919 --> 00:13:28,600 last week. I went one and two in the NFL. 250 00:13:28,759 --> 00:13:30,440 Tell you when I win, tell you when I lose. 251 00:13:30,639 --> 00:13:34,720 Here's where I stand. I'm seventeen nine and one in 252 00:13:34,759 --> 00:13:38,039 the NFL, eighteen eleven and one now after the one 253 00:13:38,039 --> 00:13:40,679 and two last week. That's sixty percent I'll take it 254 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:42,840 in the NFL, close to eighty percent. 255 00:13:42,919 --> 00:13:43,759 Speaker 4: In college football. 256 00:13:43,799 --> 00:13:47,559 Speaker 3: Combine those two forty four eighteen and one seventy percent. 257 00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,159 Bed on it Saturday, I mean Saturday's college football, Sunday's 258 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:55,240 NFL combined smash that. Like Bunton, hit those comments up, 259 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:58,320 I love love love reading them. Now we're gonna go 260 00:13:58,399 --> 00:14:02,559 straight to the Cleveland Browns. And here's a spot where 261 00:14:03,120 --> 00:14:06,840 we're not necessarily betting the Cleveland Browns. We are fading 262 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:12,960 the Baltimore Ravens. Who It's about time the market does 263 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:16,120 what it's supposed to do, and that's correct itself against 264 00:14:16,200 --> 00:14:20,279 this red hot Ravens team that's outperforming the betting market. 265 00:14:20,399 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 4: First, let's look at the series. 266 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 3: These two teams have been splitting the season series going 267 00:14:26,240 --> 00:14:27,799 back now four or five years. 268 00:14:28,159 --> 00:14:29,519 Speaker 4: That's just what they do. 269 00:14:29,519 --> 00:14:32,840 Speaker 3: Don't matter who's favored whose dog, they just split that 270 00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:33,840 season series. 271 00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:37,039 Speaker 4: So trend wise, that looks good for Cleveland. 272 00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:41,080 Speaker 3: More importantly, when the one team gets blown out or 273 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:46,080 as a dog wins outright, they end up losing the split. 274 00:14:46,919 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 4: If you look back over the season. 275 00:14:48,679 --> 00:14:52,639 Speaker 3: Series, the last ten games and what's happening here, Baltimore 276 00:14:52,679 --> 00:14:56,960 blew them out back in September forty one, seventeen. Trend 277 00:14:57,039 --> 00:15:01,840 series wise nod to Cleveland. Then I look at Cleveland's quarterback, 278 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:05,480 big downgrade in the betting market, but I don't think 279 00:15:05,519 --> 00:15:09,559 it's warranted with this Daniel Gabriel because played a really 280 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:10,960 good game last week. 281 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:11,840 Speaker 4: I thought so. 282 00:15:11,879 --> 00:15:14,320 Speaker 3: If you look at that box score, he's got a 283 00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:18,320 sixty four point one rating QBR. If you look at 284 00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:22,399 the season, nothing to brag about. But when I look 285 00:15:22,399 --> 00:15:27,000 at Lamore, looking at his season, his last ten games, 286 00:15:27,000 --> 00:15:29,200 going back obviously with last season because of the injury, 287 00:15:29,559 --> 00:15:34,559 it's eighty two point one. Again he's above NFL average 288 00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:37,879 in passing success rate, but not in the top ten 289 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,440 or he's barely just cracked the top ten maybe after 290 00:15:40,519 --> 00:15:41,080 last week. 291 00:15:42,159 --> 00:15:44,399 Speaker 4: So again, Lamar is who he is. 292 00:15:44,480 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 3: But I believe that they're getting just a little bit 293 00:15:48,279 --> 00:15:51,159 too much of an upgrade and Cleveland's getting a little 294 00:15:51,159 --> 00:15:52,919 bit too much of a down grade. 295 00:15:53,279 --> 00:15:53,559 Speaker 4: Now. 296 00:15:54,440 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 3: Baltimore also, like I said, coming in off three straight wins, 297 00:15:57,320 --> 00:16:00,000 three straight covers. They were favored in all those games, 298 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:02,399 so they did what they're supposed to do, win the game. 299 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,879 They also did against the spread, which is why I 300 00:16:06,919 --> 00:16:09,759 think this line came out higher than it should. A 301 00:16:09,759 --> 00:16:13,639 little recency bias, because the other end of that spectrum. 302 00:16:13,279 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 4: Is the perfect storm. 303 00:16:14,120 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 3: You have Cleveland coming off a game where they lost 304 00:16:17,759 --> 00:16:21,519 as favorites. Now remember back to back road games. In fact, 305 00:16:21,519 --> 00:16:26,080 Cleveland's played three of the last four weeks on the road. 306 00:16:26,279 --> 00:16:29,320 For their last four games on the road, now finally 307 00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:33,720 return home where they've played really well. They're two and 308 00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:36,879 two at home. They haven't been blown out by margin. 309 00:16:37,039 --> 00:16:40,200 In fact, they lost the Cincinnati by only one point. 310 00:16:40,399 --> 00:16:43,120 They lost the Minnesota by only four points, so they 311 00:16:43,120 --> 00:16:46,200 have a good strong home field advantage. They're zero to 312 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,639 five at on the road. Remember that's what we're looking at. 313 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,919 All we take accumulative of their last five, last ten years, 314 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:56,240 point the perential to see what the actual home field 315 00:16:56,279 --> 00:16:56,879 advantage is. 316 00:16:57,039 --> 00:16:57,799 Speaker 4: But then you want to. 317 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 3: Look at how about this season? And they blame better 318 00:17:00,559 --> 00:17:03,399 at home than on the road, And this split is 319 00:17:03,399 --> 00:17:05,839 as huge as you get zho and five on the road, 320 00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,680 two and two at home. In fact, their only games 321 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,680 they've won this year are at home. So catching all 322 00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,720 these points, I'll take this team that's had the six 323 00:17:14,839 --> 00:17:20,079 toughest schedule, top fifteen defense inefficiency and let's not forget 324 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:25,279 Baltimore also barely top fifteen. These defenses inefficiency wise are 325 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,559 right next to each other, fifteen and sixteen enough to 326 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,480 keep Cleveland in the game. I get it, Baltimore offense 327 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,599 way ahead. That's fine, that's why we're catching a touchdown. 328 00:17:34,839 --> 00:17:36,279 Speaker 4: Give me Cleveland plus the points. 329 00:17:36,319 --> 00:17:39,720 Speaker 3: Sprinkle that money line, divisional game stranger things. 330 00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 4: Just look at the series. 331 00:17:41,759 --> 00:17:46,079 Speaker 1: I was gonna use Baltimore for survivor and now. 332 00:17:46,079 --> 00:17:48,680 Speaker 3: There are five hundred team on the road. Be careful, 333 00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:50,400 I know, but that was without Lamar. 334 00:17:50,519 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 4: I understand. I understand. 335 00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:55,920 Speaker 2: Oh that does make me a little uneasy. I have 336 00:17:56,039 --> 00:17:57,440 not locked in my Survivor pick yeat. 337 00:17:57,440 --> 00:18:00,599 Speaker 1: Obviously it's only Wednesday, but now I may have to 338 00:18:00,640 --> 00:18:05,920 converse with my teammate. All right, my barking dog could 339 00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:07,920 not have been my best bet. My best bet was 340 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,920 gonna be my barking dog. But I didn't like this 341 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:11,839 game as much as I liked the best bet. So 342 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,079 here we go. We're gonna take the Carolina Panthers here, 343 00:18:15,640 --> 00:18:18,039 and I understand that the talking heads and the rage 344 00:18:18,079 --> 00:18:20,839 is all gonna be. Oh look at that thirty and 345 00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:25,480 oh revenge j angle from earlier in the season. Yeah, 346 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:31,119 that's right when the Panthers destroyed Falcon Survivor betters and 347 00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:36,440 everybody got all upset, And I thought, that's a ridiculous take. Yes, 348 00:18:36,519 --> 00:18:40,279 Carolina off a loss last week by the Saints makes 349 00:18:40,319 --> 00:18:41,680 them a little undesirable. 350 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,599 Speaker 2: But here's something I found in the gold Sheet, and 351 00:18:44,640 --> 00:18:46,880 I thought, man, what an interesting point. 352 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:51,640 Speaker 1: Okay, Falcons just lost in Berlin, so they elected not 353 00:18:51,759 --> 00:18:54,279 to use this bye week after the international game. The 354 00:18:54,319 --> 00:18:57,039 other teams that didn't do that the Browns, the Jets, 355 00:18:57,160 --> 00:19:00,680 and the Broncos. So what happened in those games? In 356 00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,000 the Browns next game, after playing in London, they scored 357 00:19:03,079 --> 00:19:04,799 nine points and the game stayed. 358 00:19:04,559 --> 00:19:05,799 Speaker 2: Under the total by a touchdown. 359 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,680 Speaker 1: The Jets, after playing in London, scored six points and 360 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,319 the game stayed under by twenty one points. And the 361 00:19:12,319 --> 00:19:15,079 Broncos game after playing the Jets in London, Denver was 362 00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:17,920 held scoreless for the first three quarters, and then you guys, 363 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:20,440 remember what happened in the final minutes versus the Giants. 364 00:19:20,680 --> 00:19:23,839 So the Golchi's saying, we've got a sample size of 365 00:19:23,880 --> 00:19:26,519 eleven quarters from teams that elected not to take their 366 00:19:26,519 --> 00:19:29,640 bye week after playing across the pond. We've got an 367 00:19:29,799 --> 00:19:32,799 unrested Atlanta squad here laying points. 368 00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:34,039 Speaker 2: Give me the points here. 369 00:19:34,079 --> 00:19:36,680 Speaker 1: I think this is a great spot for Carolina to 370 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:42,799 bounce back after that Saints loss. Marco D'Angelo, I know 371 00:19:42,839 --> 00:19:45,400 you don't always look at bounce back spots because you're 372 00:19:45,400 --> 00:19:49,079 looking for those sandwiches, and those sandwiches have been paying 373 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:52,119 dividends this year. Please let everybody know where they can 374 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:56,559 watch the extended version of the Deli and who what 375 00:19:56,680 --> 00:19:58,200 sandwich we're cooking up this week? 376 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,240 Speaker 5: Well, Kelly comes out there every Thursday, And if you're 377 00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:05,240 a Wager Talk insider, remember you get a chance to 378 00:20:05,279 --> 00:20:09,400 watch that early is the Insider Members Dupe, but it 379 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:12,240 will be out Thursday night. It's an extended version of 380 00:20:12,279 --> 00:20:14,279 what we do here on the show. We give out 381 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:18,440 five plays and it has been fantastic. We've had seven 382 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:22,039 winning weeks, two losing weeks, one break even week and 383 00:20:22,079 --> 00:20:25,519 that has resulted in a record of thirty two and 384 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:29,839 seventeen after last week's five and sweep on the show. 385 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,039 So look for that on Thursday, and then of course 386 00:20:32,279 --> 00:20:36,359 it'll be included in the mega version of bet on 387 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,000 It the College and Pro where we put everything in 388 00:20:39,039 --> 00:20:43,880 one big show for you this week, Kelly, no sandwich 389 00:20:43,960 --> 00:20:48,640 for you. In the NFL, I'm bringing you and we're 390 00:20:48,680 --> 00:20:53,119 going to take a look at Washington and Miami. And 391 00:20:53,519 --> 00:20:57,319 the most shocking outcome of last week had to be 392 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:02,200 the Miami Dolphins upsetting Buffalo. And I've said it over 393 00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:05,440 and over again. Bad teams are gonna show up for 394 00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,720 division games when they can play spoiler or a national 395 00:21:09,799 --> 00:21:13,960 TV game. Now, that was a division game for Miami. 396 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,920 They were able to beat Buffalo, but let's be honest, 397 00:21:18,039 --> 00:21:21,279 Buffalo was in a bad spot last week. Why well, 398 00:21:21,319 --> 00:21:24,359 they had already beaten Miami at home. Yeah, the game 399 00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:26,599 was closer than it probably should have been that game 400 00:21:26,599 --> 00:21:30,319 at home, but they did beat Miami. But they were 401 00:21:30,359 --> 00:21:34,839 coming off a very satisfying win the week before. Why well, 402 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,680 they played the Kansas City Chiefs playoff revenge and they 403 00:21:38,759 --> 00:21:42,559 kept that streak going. I think it's now ninth straight. 404 00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,799 If you just played Buffalo in the regular season versus KC, 405 00:21:47,319 --> 00:21:51,839 and PLAYKC in the playoffs versus Buffalo. So for them 406 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,000 to be flat last week is not a big shot. 407 00:21:55,599 --> 00:21:59,680 Now they're gonna play a Washington team in again, this 408 00:21:59,839 --> 00:22:02,079 is a team that has lost four in a row. 409 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,599 They've been embarrassed. So why do we want to take 410 00:22:04,599 --> 00:22:08,440 a team like that. Well, this is a standalone game, 411 00:22:08,519 --> 00:22:11,759 So why not take Miami. Well, they're both playing bad, 412 00:22:12,079 --> 00:22:15,599 they're both having bad seasons, and Miami's coming off the 413 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:20,920 win where Washington's coming off another ugly loss. But look 414 00:22:21,039 --> 00:22:24,200 at the last four weeks. Three of those teams were 415 00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:29,960 Kansas City, Seattle, and Detroit. All of those teams, Seattle 416 00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,440 and Detroit are having great seasons. Kansas City, as we 417 00:22:33,559 --> 00:22:36,119 talked about in the other video, are still the favorite 418 00:22:36,160 --> 00:22:39,519 to win the Super Bowl, even with their record right now, 419 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:44,039 so they've had a tough schedule. I think Washington is 420 00:22:44,079 --> 00:22:46,200 a team that's gonna want this one more. I just 421 00:22:46,279 --> 00:22:51,359 can't trust the Miami team with Elaine Duck coach in 422 00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:56,000 my opinion, to travel across the pond, play in Spain 423 00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,680 or sorry, in Spain. This one's not in London, but 424 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,720 situation where I just don't see them showing up. Buffalo 425 00:23:04,039 --> 00:23:07,599 had three turnovers last week. That's the main reason Miami 426 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:11,279 won that game. If Washington doesn't turn the football over 427 00:23:11,319 --> 00:23:14,160 this week, they win this game, and I like them 428 00:23:14,200 --> 00:23:16,799 plus the points. I just do not trust Miami. They 429 00:23:16,839 --> 00:23:20,279 should not be favored over anybody. Let's take Washington twenty 430 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:21,480 seven to twenty. 431 00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,640 Speaker 1: Okay, let's get into those the best bets as we 432 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:28,920 hit the home stretch here of Week eleven in the 433 00:23:29,039 --> 00:23:30,240 NFL VR. 434 00:23:30,319 --> 00:23:31,880 Speaker 2: You're gonna go first, but. 435 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,079 Speaker 1: Please let everybody know what you got going on at 436 00:23:34,079 --> 00:23:36,000 wager talk dot com before you give us your best 437 00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:36,640 bet for this week. 438 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 3: Oh yeah, I just almost change my best bets. So 439 00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:41,839 in other words, subscribers, you're getting another four percent later 440 00:23:41,920 --> 00:23:42,440 on today. 441 00:23:42,559 --> 00:23:42,720 Speaker 4: Yeah. 442 00:23:42,759 --> 00:23:45,039 Speaker 3: If you're betting college football in NFL, you're going to 443 00:23:45,119 --> 00:23:49,160 get my package already. Look at the year we're having 444 00:23:49,200 --> 00:23:54,359 over one hundred units up in college football having another 445 00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,279 big package job. No five percent, just fire and four percent. 446 00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:00,200 Same with the NFL. Put that package off. All the 447 00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:05,440 four percents go in their primetime games. Everything college basketball 448 00:24:05,839 --> 00:24:08,279 UFC card this week with a five percent in it. 449 00:24:08,319 --> 00:24:10,599 That's the only five percent we're firing. The biggest bet 450 00:24:10,599 --> 00:24:13,119 I'm making is in the UFC on Saturday. 451 00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 4: Just a lot of action. Man, Jump on board. Great time. 452 00:24:16,279 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 3: College basketball power ratings are up and running same same, same, 453 00:24:20,559 --> 00:24:24,319 same math guy as the college football So excited about 454 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:26,839 the next few months close out the year with bowl 455 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:27,960 games and playoffs. 456 00:24:28,039 --> 00:24:29,079 Speaker 4: Great time, Great time. 457 00:24:29,119 --> 00:24:31,079 Speaker 3: Head on over to wagetalk dot com and again every 458 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,279 day I try to put out best free premiums. I 459 00:24:34,279 --> 00:24:36,200 think I put up like three tennis plays the other 460 00:24:36,240 --> 00:24:38,480 day that swept the board. So make sure you check 461 00:24:38,519 --> 00:24:41,640 that every day. Now, let me get to my best bet. 462 00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:44,400 Like I said, almost changed it up, but I'm gonna 463 00:24:44,400 --> 00:24:47,240 stick to it because they forced me to get their window. 464 00:24:47,359 --> 00:24:51,799 When the San Francisco line jumped up to three, the 465 00:24:51,799 --> 00:24:52,799 look had made sense. 466 00:24:52,839 --> 00:24:53,839 Speaker 4: Listen, it's a queen flip. 467 00:24:54,839 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 3: Recent sy San Francisco's look better a little bit, so 468 00:24:58,599 --> 00:25:01,079 I get it. But now you're talking about a big number, 469 00:25:01,079 --> 00:25:04,240 a key number of three with an Arizona team that 470 00:25:04,440 --> 00:25:08,759 at home has just played tough like they're only one 471 00:25:08,759 --> 00:25:11,440 in three, but they're not losing by margin. That's the 472 00:25:11,519 --> 00:25:14,599 key when you look at this team that that they're 473 00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:19,400 they're not getting blown out. They're coming in having covered 474 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,160 three or four because of that, even though they've only 475 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,480 won one game. And the reason for that is this 476 00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,960 offensively and defensively. When you look at the efficiency and 477 00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:31,240 compare to to San Francisco, it's not all that much different. 478 00:25:31,440 --> 00:25:34,279 San Francisco is only a couple slots up on the 479 00:25:34,279 --> 00:25:37,000 offensive side of the ball, a couple slots up on 480 00:25:37,079 --> 00:25:40,200 the defensive side of the ball, and a slight advantage 481 00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:44,160 on strength of schedule, But all that is mitigated by 482 00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:48,000 the fact they are on the road playing a divisional rival, 483 00:25:48,720 --> 00:25:53,599 in a team like Arizona that I do expect to 484 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:58,680 get their full effort after getting blown out by Seattle, 485 00:25:58,799 --> 00:26:01,839 I mean, like did yet last week, and let's not 486 00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:04,559 forget they were on the road back to back weeks 487 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:09,480 after covering three straight. I think you're gonna get a 488 00:26:10,039 --> 00:26:13,519 focused Arizona team at home that gives San Francisco a 489 00:26:13,519 --> 00:26:16,319 lot of problems. And you saw what San Francisco last 490 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,400 week against a legit team like the Rams getting blown out. 491 00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:25,839 Arizona definitely has the offense and defense to keep this close. 492 00:26:26,359 --> 00:26:29,839 Take the three key number. I like Arizona best bet. 493 00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:32,920 Speaker 2: All right, Marco, last week you gave out a. 494 00:26:32,839 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 1: Team total, and well, that was just pretty dang easy. 495 00:26:36,039 --> 00:26:39,640 So this week you're going back to the well with 496 00:26:39,759 --> 00:26:43,759 another team total. Which is interesting because we're kind of 497 00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:45,319 head to head here. And I mentioned on the College 498 00:26:45,319 --> 00:26:47,160 Football Show when Marco and I've been head to head, 499 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,359 it has been very bad for Kelly, at least in 500 00:26:49,400 --> 00:26:51,920 college football. So this is gonna make for a fun 501 00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:55,160 last segment. Talk to me about what you got going 502 00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,079 on Wager Talk. I know you have a new special. 503 00:26:57,200 --> 00:26:59,039 Last week's birthday special is no. 504 00:26:59,039 --> 00:27:02,039 Speaker 5: Longer Yeah, And I want to thank everybody for the 505 00:27:02,039 --> 00:27:05,599 birthday wishes last week. Kelly. They got into the comments section. 506 00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,559 I appreciate, tried to answer as many of them as 507 00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:11,680 I could. And you guys, if you jumped on board 508 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:15,480 that birthday bas package, you're happy. We had a nice 509 00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:18,160 week last week. It's been a nice two weeks to 510 00:27:18,200 --> 00:27:21,359 be honest with you. Last thirteen days, Kelly, twenty one 511 00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:24,880 and nine, with all of our selections up over three 512 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:29,599 thousand dollars for our clients, we hit another five percent play. 513 00:27:29,599 --> 00:27:33,799 It was Nebraska outright winners, a small dog, and that 514 00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:37,079 brings the record onto five percent plays thirty six and 515 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,079 sixteen since February of twenty twenty four. Why do I 516 00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,279 bring up the five percent play well, because we're going 517 00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:46,079 to have another one of those this weekend. And the 518 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:48,559 way to go, We've got a new special for you 519 00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,440 at wait or Talk. You can pick up any handicaper 520 00:27:51,519 --> 00:27:54,759 ten days for ninety nine dollars. That's less than ten 521 00:27:54,799 --> 00:27:57,559 dollars a day. You can jump on board that package. 522 00:27:57,640 --> 00:28:00,279 But if you want to jump on yours truly through 523 00:28:00,359 --> 00:28:03,079 the Super Bowl and get every single play I have, 524 00:28:03,559 --> 00:28:06,559 there's thirteen weeks between now and the Super Bowl, and 525 00:28:06,759 --> 00:28:10,920 every sport is rolling right now. You've got obviously college 526 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:15,039 and pro football. You've got the NBA, College basketball is underway, hockey. 527 00:28:15,559 --> 00:28:18,559 We're winning in all of those sports. Give us a 528 00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,880 chance jump on board through the Super Bowl. If you 529 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:24,960 bought ninety nine dollars a week, which is the regular 530 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:29,200 weekly rate thirteen weeks. It would cost you just under 531 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,799 thirteen hundred dollars for that package. You can get it 532 00:28:32,799 --> 00:28:35,680 for seven hundred and forty nine dollars. Head over to 533 00:28:35,720 --> 00:28:42,519 my homepage to check that out. WT Dot Buzz backslash MD. 534 00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:45,200 All right, let's get to that team total, Kelly. Last 535 00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:48,680 week we took the Lions team total over. Why because 536 00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,039 the Lions were coming off as shocking loss with division rival, 537 00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,920 and we know that these teams have a tendency to 538 00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,319 bounce back and bounce back in a big way off 539 00:28:58,359 --> 00:29:01,680 of a loss. And that's exactly what the Lions did. 540 00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,480 And we also know, you know, I pointed out with 541 00:29:04,559 --> 00:29:07,400 the Lions that when they get a lead, Dan Gamble 542 00:29:07,559 --> 00:29:10,519 doesn't like to take his foot off the gas, so 543 00:29:10,559 --> 00:29:12,559 I didn't worry about them having a big lead and 544 00:29:12,599 --> 00:29:17,559 then going into trying just to run the clock out. Well, 545 00:29:17,559 --> 00:29:19,559 I think you're gonna have the same type of situation here. 546 00:29:19,640 --> 00:29:22,480 Buffalo is going to rebound. They had an ugly game 547 00:29:22,559 --> 00:29:26,759 last week. Three turnovers. Josh Allen had an interception and 548 00:29:27,000 --> 00:29:30,000 a fumble last week. They had a total of three 549 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:32,480 turnovers and that's what ended up doing them in they 550 00:29:32,519 --> 00:29:36,279 came out flat as a pancake. Why, well, do you 551 00:29:36,279 --> 00:29:38,440 think maybe they were a little bit fat and sassy 552 00:29:38,519 --> 00:29:42,359 after that playoff revenge against Kansas City the week before. 553 00:29:42,799 --> 00:29:46,200 You're gonna get a fully focused Buffalo team. And Josh Allen, 554 00:29:46,799 --> 00:29:48,920 he's going to be a beast this week. After the 555 00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,359 bad performance last week, he still ended up passing for 556 00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:54,480 a lot of yards in that game, even with all 557 00:29:54,559 --> 00:29:58,400 of the turnovers giving away possessions. And when I talked 558 00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:01,880 about keeping the foot on the game, well, they're playing 559 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:04,519 a Tampa Bay team. This is gonna bode well for you, Kelly. 560 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,240 We know this team's never out of a game, and 561 00:30:07,319 --> 00:30:11,039 Baker Mayfield has brought this team back so many different 562 00:30:11,079 --> 00:30:14,640 times this year that if Buffalo does get that lead 563 00:30:14,720 --> 00:30:18,599 like I expect them to get, Tampa Bay's gonna keep answering. 564 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,640 And if Tampa Bay keeps answering, that means Buffalo's got 565 00:30:22,759 --> 00:30:24,720 to keep their foot on the gas and keep going. 566 00:30:25,119 --> 00:30:27,599 And we're looking at a team total of twenty seven 567 00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,160 and a half. I see Buffalo going over that team total. 568 00:30:31,799 --> 00:30:34,960 They've gone over that team total six of nine games 569 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:38,720 this year, and I see it happening again. Here, let's 570 00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,559 go ahead and take Buffalo team total. I've got him 571 00:30:41,599 --> 00:30:44,799 hitting thirty one or more in this game. Kelly, that's 572 00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:47,720 my team total only asterisk I'm gonna put up on 573 00:30:47,759 --> 00:30:50,720 this one. Be sure to watch the weather on the weekend. 574 00:30:50,759 --> 00:30:55,039 Of course, with Buffalo, anything can happen with weather in Buffalo, 575 00:30:55,319 --> 00:30:57,559 and that would be the only thing that would squelch 576 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,680 this play for me is if we have bad weather 577 00:31:00,799 --> 00:31:03,759 come on weekend. That's not the case at this time. 578 00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,119 Speaker 1: All right, Well, the good news about my best bet 579 00:31:06,160 --> 00:31:09,759 is that Marco and I can actually both win. You 580 00:31:09,759 --> 00:31:12,359 guys know I love five and a half point underdogs. 581 00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,519 It's like my favorite Trappie line in the NFL. And 582 00:31:15,559 --> 00:31:17,440 I also know that the Bucks were my best bet 583 00:31:17,559 --> 00:31:19,759 last week. But that's why we have to go back 584 00:31:19,799 --> 00:31:22,240 to the well with this team. I have been early 585 00:31:22,759 --> 00:31:24,200 so many weeks with some. 586 00:31:24,119 --> 00:31:26,319 Speaker 2: Of these best bets. I think this is one of those. 587 00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,480 Speaker 1: Buffalo oh in three against the spread as a home 588 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,559 favorite this season, and since October twenty twenty three, the 589 00:31:32,599 --> 00:31:35,640 Bills nine and twelve against the spread as a home favorite. 590 00:31:35,799 --> 00:31:38,720 Here is a Bucks team that is number one in 591 00:31:38,839 --> 00:31:42,960 rushing success rate allowed the season. We all know how 592 00:31:43,039 --> 00:31:46,559 much I tated touted Baker Mayfield last week, and we 593 00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:49,359 know that sometimes those risks don't pay off. 594 00:31:50,039 --> 00:31:51,640 Speaker 2: Sometimes they do. And as long as he's not. 595 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,640 Speaker 1: Two careless with the football this weekend, I think the 596 00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:58,839 Bucks can keep this one close. No Dalton Kinkaid, at 597 00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:02,079 least not for this week. You know, Josh Allen losing 598 00:32:02,119 --> 00:32:04,480 one of his favorite weapons is not bode well for 599 00:32:04,519 --> 00:32:05,200 this offense. 600 00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,920 Speaker 2: And besides playing Kansas City, what's going on with this offense? 601 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:10,559 For some reason? 602 00:32:10,599 --> 00:32:13,960 Speaker 1: They're loving running the football this season? Just number two 603 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:18,000 behind Seattle. Why you got Josh Allen as your quarterback? 604 00:32:18,039 --> 00:32:20,559 What are you guys doing? Hoping they don't figure that 605 00:32:20,599 --> 00:32:24,000 out for one more week though, Coach Kelly is gonna 606 00:32:24,079 --> 00:32:26,519 keep that one under wraps and hope that the Tampa 607 00:32:26,519 --> 00:32:29,599 Bay Buccaneers plus five and a half comes through for us. 608 00:32:30,079 --> 00:32:32,880 Am I gonna sprinkle a little bit on that money line, Yeah, 609 00:32:33,000 --> 00:32:36,440 I think I am. Let's get up that recap graphic, 610 00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,039 say bye to the guys, and hope that all of 611 00:32:40,079 --> 00:32:44,960 you guys have a profitable weekend. Alrighty, And if you 612 00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:47,440 guys are looking for that college football edition to bet on, 613 00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:49,400 it is right here. And of course the mega show 614 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,119 College Football NFL and all the specialty segments wrapped up 615 00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:56,119 into one. Hope you guys have a great week. As 616 00:32:56,200 --> 00:32:58,640 Vierre like say, cash them, don't trash him until next week. 617 00:32:58,720 --> 00:32:59,480 Speaker 2: Let's bet on it.