Speaker 1: All right, welcome in.
Speaker 2: It's time for Total Basis on Tuesday, on five dollars.
Tuesday at wager Talk every Tuesday. Well, it plays up
for five dollars and I'm I'm glad we get a
chance to redo for me, at least for myself. I
was talking to the guys behind the scenes here before
we get the show started. The last couple of days,
I feel like I haven't got a single MLB opinion
correct some of the some of the stuff I'm watching
is baffling.
Speaker 1: That's where I'm gonna start in a minute.
Speaker 2: But I guess, Brian, I'm happy that I've only made
two MLB bets since Friday because I saved money in
that regard, and hopefully we can take that and go forward.
Speaker 1: So listen, sometimes a bet you don't make that.
Speaker 2: Loses is just as good as a win, right because
if you lose it, you're gonna have to win it
back at some point. So we need to lock in.
It's Tuesday. We've got the full slate back, but I
need a vent for a minute. I got to talk
about the Royals. So let's let's start where we did yesterday.
Royals Guardians. I had the Royals yesterday. It was my
only play never in a million years that I expect
them to be just da no chance, lifeless, just zero shot,
two games out of a playoff spot against sladees Cony
on the mound.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know Bobby with Junior didn't play.
Speaker 2: I even wrote that up that I thought he probably wouldn't,
or if he wouldn't.
Speaker 1: If he didn't, I handicapped the game with him out
of it.
Speaker 2: But Brian was That was as lifeless of a performance
top to bottom, coaching staff, pitching every at that was terrible.
Speaker 1: That's a team two games out of a playoff spot.
Speaker 2: I don't even know what to make of it, And
now I don't really know where to go with the
rest of this series. I do hope, for your sake
as a fan, that the Guardians let them bleed out.
I want to see them step on the throat, watch
the Royals bleed out the next three days because that
team just doesn't deserve it. After that, that was awful.
That was awful, totally not ready to play. Where does
this series go from here? Do you like the Guardian chances?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: If anyone wanted to hear what Adam sounds like when
he's pissed, good.
Speaker 2: Just pissed at the lack of effort TV. This is
a this is a that was a playoff game.
Speaker 5: That was a playoffs for sure, listless.
Speaker 3: Yeah, you weren't the only one that struggled yesterday. I've
been riding high and yesterday I had the Washington team
total over and I didn't need eleven of those runs,
could use some of my Arizona had a three nothing
to lead early on and blew it. Yeah, not a
good day for me. Uh, not a good day overall.
I was supposed to meet somebody down on the strip.
I want drove all the way down the strip, and
then I realized I'm supposed to meet him today, not yesterday.
So my entire day was a waste yesterday. Hopefully we
can get it back for you today. Cameron going against
Castillo here, both lefties. We got Cleveland about a one
twenty five favorite total seven a half in the over.
I talked about that yesterday with the total, Like you know,
I know the winds blowing in. It's very similar today
yesterday about eleven miles per hour blowing in. But these
two starters are a whole lot better than the guys
they had yesterday and we're still getting the same number
yesterday I said was too low. Now you know, I
understand why it's where it is, and it makes a
lot more sense we've got going in this game. As
I mentioned Kansas City, you pointed it out, they did
not show. They did not look good at all and
really blows me away how they could have done that.
But that's why they're not making the playoffs. Cleveland's not
making the playoffs either, so don't get too excited if
you're a Cleveland fan. I said this all along that
none of these teams are behind are going to make it,
and so far there has been no really moves in
the in the records going over all, the teams out
of the playoffs are still a lot of the playoffs.
Cameron seven and six record, but a three point oh
three ERA three point sixty seven expected one point one
to three whip good at barrel percentage, hard hit rate,
average Eaxson velocity. But he does struggle a little bit.
He's not beating anybody with his fastball. He's in the
twenty percent of fastball velocity and he still throws that
most out of all his five pitches. But all of
them are anywhere from fifteen to twenty eight, which is
something I like. Cleveland, on the other hand, will go
with Joey Tantillo three point seven three ERA, three point
seven seven expected one point four. Oh whip, And that's
been his problem. It's it's the walk rate twelve point
one percent this year. Last year was nine point two
major League Baseball averages eight point four. So he is wild,
and when he does get wild, the other team does
not have to stand around and then just wait for
something in the middle. And you could tell show that
by looking at a chase percentage in the first percentile,
walk right in the fifth percentl fastball velocity in the twelfth.
So he's got great extension ninety nine percent tle and
his whift right eighty fifth and strike out right eighty third.
But you can just stand up there and I could
throw all pitches. Eventually he's gonna walk you, and so
there's no real reason for them to swing early in
the count. That always concerns me here, But I like
these two guys better than yesterday, so I can understand
the total a little bit more. But I don't want
to get involved here, guys.
Speaker 5: It's five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 4: I don't have a play up yet, but I will,
and I'm sure my colleagues here will as well. If
they don't already, we will probably be putting free plays
up to So go to wager talk dot com and
click the free plays page and see what we got there.
Speaker 5: It only takes ten seconds. Uh yeah.
Speaker 4: I won my third five percent play this week yesterday
on Seattle Mariners minus one. And I want to address
someone in the comments yesterday when I said, don't overthink it,
just take the fourth best pitcher, crochet and the better team.
Someone said, TV, you're such a lazy capper. Who was
that yesterday?
Speaker 5: Do you guys remember? Raise your hand? Who was that?
Speaker 4: Anyways, I'm not at all, so no, you didn't, Brian,
I'm not petty at all. So regarding this, I loved
Noah Cameron to start the season, but man as he
tailed off recently. And I liked the Royals but they've
tailed off as well. A listless, I think is the
best word to describe their performance recently, including yesterday. My
numbers have Cleveland favored in almost every category here, but
just favored by like two points in each category, So
it's not enough to make a play on, but it's
overwhelmingly in favor of them. Neither team's really batting that well.
Both bullpens performing extremely well. And here's something about mister
Hawaii Joey Cantillo. He's only allowed one earn run in
each of his last three starts, so that's pretty good.
I think I would like to take a Royals team
total under here if I'm going to bet this game.
I haven't looked at see what it is yet. I'm
a little late. I got tied up in a bunch
of stuff today, so I haven't actually put a play
out and done all my numbers yet today. But a
Royals under looks kind of delish here or the full
game under. I'm considering that's how I would go if
I'm gonna bet this game. Who was that yesterday that
told me I'm a lazy caper, raise your hand, go
ahead at him.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that was a good call in the Red Sox, I,
you know, kind of it kind of as I did.
I did a free pick video for that one where
I kind of, you know, gave my handicap for the
a's but also like kind of talk myself off of
it at the same time. It felt weird to go
against Crochet after he got blown up, But I don't
think it was lazy at all. I just think you
know it's and obviously you were right, so no problem there.
Speaker 4: I'm not thumping my chest against you guys. I'm just
mad at the one guy who made that comment in
the comments, so I'm not I'm not trying to show
up you guys, because I lose just as much as
the next.
Speaker 2: I think I think Brian kind of leaned toward the
Red Sox there too.
Speaker 3: You Red so just side in my press range. I
didn't think we're getting value, and I'm in all all
in value. That's if you don't like playing ugly teams,
you don't want my plays, I mean I'm gonna get
you see it in the parlay all the time. I've
always got plus money out underdogs in the parlor for
the most part. So that's just the way I handicap TV.
Speaker 2: I'm I'm with you on looking at a Royals team
total under So I was pissed last night, like I
couldn't believe.
Speaker 1: Normally, I don't turn the game off.
Speaker 2: I stop watching, especially if I bet it like I
I typically am. I'm a big like, let's let the
nine innings play out, see where it ends up. And
I shut that game off after the fifth inning. I
was so disgusted, turned on Money Night Football and sat
there and like scoured like I just sat there and
scoured Royals Twitter to see how like if the fan
base was as upset as I was. And one of
the things that the one of the beat writers was
talking about is Bobby Wood Junior hasn't swung up that yet.
That's you know, they made it seem like he was
probably gonna go yesterday. Now if I if you read
by right up, I talked about him likely you know,
I thought that the line had him priced out. So
I was fine with it because I figured out, well,
well they're gonna play there, it's Slade Secny.
Speaker 1: We're gonna get some runs off this guy anyway.
Speaker 2: So not only do they not score off him, and
and you know, he's a guy that's essentially a VP
pitcher just throwing it over the plate here, it is
see what you can do?
Speaker 1: Not only could they not hit him?
Speaker 2: Now you talk about Joey Cantillo coming in here, the
Royals don't hit left handed pitching well, And guess who's
the one guy that actually hits lefties very consistently in
that lineup.
Speaker 1: His name's Bobby went Junior. And he has yet to
pick up a baseball bat, per the Royals beat.
Speaker 2: Writer that was on Twitter, which I could probably find him, like,
he hasn't touched a bat yet, so he's he's run.
Quataro said, he's done. He's run, He's done all his
baseball activities. He has not swung a bat yet. That
is like beyond concerning to me. And and that effort
yesterday makes me think that maybe internally they know he's
not going to be around for a little bit, like
this might be one of those things where they're they're
just trying to keep it close to the vest, but
that I think that team knows they can't win without him,
And that effort last night looked like a team that
knows that maybe he's gonna be out for a few
days and they have no shot because I have no
there's no other way to explain, just the lack of focus,
the lack of effort, and then the management basically letting
up was a burget just go out there and get
bombed because they had Daniel Lynch, they had Bowlin and
they had their couple top like top relievers. That was
like a two three nothing game in the fourth inning.
They didn't need to get that out of control. So
I'm wondering if that means that they don't that they
maybe think Wit is gone till later in the week,
and maybe they just decided that maybe they made a
business decision, Brian, let him just get pummeled and hope
they have their their top dogs for when he comes back.
Speaker 1: But that's discouraging. And I'll go back to what TV said.
Speaker 2: If you get Wit out of the lineup, I think
that Royals team total under probably moves. And my gut
tells me he's probably not today if.
Speaker 1: He hasn't swung of that yet.
Speaker 3: So if he doesn't come back in four days, they're
gonna be out of the playoffs, while I bring him
back to the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
Speaker 2: Well, this is one of those things where do you
think this is like we get to Friday, they've lost
three or four to the Guardians, and now he's like
retroactively on the I l probably done for the season.
I just when I read that he has yet to
swing of that, that is so concerning because like I,
I mean one, if he feels discovered on one swing,
he's not gonna play tonight. And and the Royals, the
Guardians will go to minus one forty and the Royals
team total under will no longer be playable.
Speaker 1: So if you like either of those things, I think
you got to get in now. All right, we're off.
Speaker 2: We're off to a flying start here. As TV said,
I came in angry today.
Speaker 1: I am angry. I don't like to lose, so I'm
pissed off. I want to find some winners snickers by.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not hungry, I just ate.
Speaker 1: I'm just pissed.
Speaker 2: I don't like losing so and I don't like when
a team I bet on just straight up no shows.
Speaker 1: And that's what happened to me yesterday. All right.
Speaker 2: I got into a little back and forth Aaron Pauling
on Twitter asked about this game, and I felt bad
because I didn't have much of an opinion. But it
ended up turning into a kind of the shit show
that I expected. This is going to be NAT's Marlin.
So p SI in the chat says, Nats, NAT's Nats. Well,
that's certainly what it turned into yesterday. That was a
fifteen to seven Nationals win on the heels of the
Nationals pulling off one of the crazier comebacks on Sunday.
I don't know if you know everyone well everyone was
watching football. You basically had Daniel Palnsi a blow a
game and then pretty much like end his career all
in one outing that the Nats managed to like come
out and win. So hey, maybe the Nationals have a
little juice. Now it's going to be the Nats on
the road. Adam Mazer, it looks like for the Marlins,
all right, Leonard, this is this just just looks like
another game where it kind of looks like a mess.
Like what, I don't know, do you just back runs
here again? Are either of these pitchers holding the other
team down at this point? Does anyone have any bullpen?
How are you seeing? Nats Marlins?
Speaker 3: Well, Nationals gone six and four their last ten, Marlins
three and seven, Marlins yesterday. I think this team, they
have a lot of good young players on this team,
but they're just they're getting worn out. This is all
you know. I got to keep in mind, this is
a really long season and in the minor leagues they
they're still playing other than I believe A and double
A or A and ALA advanced day are out. But
they're still playing, and it's a long season. They've been
up and down to the minors a lot of these guys.
Maybe they're just warning out at this point. They over
performed up until a few weeks ago and now start
to catch up to them. The problem is, I don't
want Parker. I don't want anything to do with Parker
right now. He's he's one of the worst pitchers in
Major League Baseball. He's a lefty going against Miami, Maser
going for the Marlins. We're looking at Maser about a
maybe a one twenty favorite total eight and a half
here to the over. That would be That would be
the way I would always look at this with the over.
But after scoring all those runs, how many times do
we see a team do it again?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 3: Usually it did balances out the next day. Mitchell Parker
good extension eighty seventh percentile. Everything else is terrible. Expected
DRA second pertentle, expected Banny average second average, exon velocity,
first strike l ray fourth, hard hit rate first five
point eight seven ERA, and it's legit is expected as
five point nine to seven terrible way up one point
four eight. It's not from walking people, it's from just
giving up too many hits. Want no part of Mitchell Parker.
Adam Maser comes in five point seven to four ERA,
four point nine two expected one point five to three whip.
His whip has been terrible too, but he's only thrown
forty nine Major league innings in two seasons one to
five records, six point nine to three year a one
point seven to two on the whip there is the
only thing you could take a look at. He's got
limited innings, but his bags of velossity has been very good.
Heart hit reake's been very good and he doesn't walk
a out a guys six point eighty percent walks after
thirteen point nine last year in five hundred and eighty
four pitches. Maybe it's just a small sample size this year,
but overall I think he's better than Parker and uh
with a line of one twenty here they're basically saying
he's slightly better. But it's anybody really trusted that one
of these teams at this point. I don't like the pitchers.
It would be over nothing for me, and luckily I
don't have to bet that so I'll likely be passing
on this.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Parker's just a terrible but looking at Missour's last
few starts, he's been rocked pretty well too. My numbers,
neither one of them have pitched enough innings in the
last thirty days to register, so I don't really have
a ranking for them. But I do know that Miami's
bullpen right now is RINGD twenty eight in current form
out of thirty teams in their lineup is ranked twenty
eight out of thirty in current form. Washington's lineup RING
twenty two, So we got two teams that just can't
hit right now. Washington has a slight bullpen advantage, but
neither bullpen is above average and neither starting pitcher is
above average. If the lineups were ranked at least average
or better, I would like to take an over here,
But just given the flaccid state of both of these lineups,
I don't even have confidence enough to bet an over here,
even though the pitching is awful, So I'm gonna stay
away from this. This is a This looks like a
mud bath or something. This is a crap show. Not
gonna bet it it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know how the Marlins could possibly be favored.
Speaker 1: Kyle Stowers had a set back. He will not be back.
Speaker 2: He's probably I wouldn't be surprised if he's won that
they just hanging up for the year. He played at
Jacksonville last week, got scratched. I think on Saturday or Sunday.
I initially thought, oh, they took him out because they're
gonna call him back up. He's ready to go.
Speaker 1: Looks like he had a setback, and now you're sitting
here on September ninth. He's had a great season.
Speaker 2: There's no point in having him play meaningless baseball for
three weeks, so they won't be getting him back. The Marlins,
like Brian said, this is a team that they had
a lot of their young guys up early. So you know,
a lot of their youngsters were making their way up
in April and May, and they played well, and I
think they've just run out of gas. It's a long
season for some of these guys. It's the longest season
that they'll have played, being as it's the first year
in the BIGS. And then Adam Mazer is someone that
just he just has not really I thought this was
gonna be a really nice year for him. He comes
from the Padres organization. He got a taste to the
big league level last year. They decided to start him
at Triple A, where he looked really good earlier this
year and he just hasn't really been able to sort
of figure it out. Five point three to two ERA
in the month of April, most of which was at
Triple A, gets the call last time out against this
Nationals team ten hits over six innings. Does Maser have
it in him to make an adjustment?
Speaker 1: Probably not.
Speaker 2: Guys like that are just recently called up, like a
Triple A type guy that's new and early in his career.
I don't know that he's been around long enough to
figure out, in what was that six or seven days, like,
how to do something differently than he's done it to
this point. That's an off season thing for a guy
like Mazer. Probably not start to start. So the other thing,
I went to this series when it was in Rochester,
Rochester Jacksonville. So so these guys not only do they
play all the time at the big league level, their
Triple A teams played this year, which isn't always the case.
I think they played at least six games against each
other a lot of these guys have been up and down,
so you're at the point of the year where you've
had two pitchers. Both these teams have had lots of
exposure to very average pitching. Neither team has any bullpen.
So the only way I could play this would be
over nine. I still think you're getting about a half
run of value, being that that over nine is like
a key number, Like the difference between nine and nine
and a half on an over is a big deal.
And so here you get the over nine. Yeah, maybe
you don't get twenty two runs like yesterday, but certainly
each team getting four is reasonable. And then you've got
the Nationals. Just shouldn't be an Underdome. I mean, these
two teams are so bad. I don't know how you
really have a great handicap here. But the Marlins being
minus one twenty doesn't make a ton of sense to me.
Like so value on the Nats.
Speaker 1: I like the over. And that's where I'm gonna leave
this one, all right.
Speaker 2: I want to touch that game because we had people
ask about it yesterday, we didn't talk about it. So
titan CT says, can we discuss Brewers Rangers? So let's
get back to the meaningful baseball, I suppose, Brian. The
Rangers are another team that I've left for dead probably
four different times this year. Yet here they are right
in the mix that al no one wants to put
that last spot away apparently, And the Texas Rangers are
another team hanging right around on the fringe. They're gonna
have to beat the Brewers to stay in it. But
we've talked about this for weeks. The Brewers are kind.
Speaker 1: Of in the sort of go through the motions range
right now. They don't.
Speaker 2: They're not really playing quote unquote meaningful ball the last
couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: It's really about getting to the playoffs.
Speaker 2: Healthy Texas Rangers one and a half games out of
that last.
Speaker 1: Spot, chasing the Mariners. Do you have any interest in
the Rangers today?
Speaker 3: Right now, we've got Patrick's supposed to Jack Patrick supposed
to be back up to pitch for Milwaukee. I think
I read that yesterday and he's on the chart. The
thing is stat Cast does not have him listed and
they don't have me away for me to click on him,
so it'll be a short one for me. But yeah,
we've got Milwaukee against the Texas Lighter going for Texas.
Texas won about one ten home favorite eight and a
half to the under. I thought Lighters pitched pretty well lately,
and Milwaukee, as you said, as I was mentioned, they
don't have to win any games right now. They're just
trying to stay healthy. I kind of like Texas off
off the number. I thought it was going to be
a little bit more on Lighter. He comes in three
point seven four ERA four point five one expected one
point twenty nine whip. His extension is very good, fastball
velocity is very good, but he does have a lot
of blue on his stack cast page. I think he's
better than what his number show. He's I've followed him
for many years, obviously because of the last name. Yeah,
he's finally starting to show that he could pitch at
this level. Still dealing with inconsistency, and that's what you're
going to have a lot of these young pitchers. So
slightly prefer Texas here. I think it's a cheap number.
I think that she probably should be about in a
one twenty range, but I don't think it's enough to
get me involved here.
Speaker 5: Guys, it's five dollars.
Speaker 4: Tuesday, go to waygotalk dot com and see what we
have up with free plays as well. Also go to
the replay of this and leave a comment. We read
them all and we answer most of them, and we
appreciate you guys watching and commenting and giving us some
of your insight as well. It's actually quite eye opening.
So I think we have the most educated audience of
all Way To talk shows. So regarding this one, this
is the tightest contest I have. My numbers have this
the tightest contest. Not even a point separates these two
teams in this matchup.
Speaker 5: Today.
Speaker 4: I got Patrick ranked about seven points higher than Lighter,
but I got Texas's bullpen about seven points higher than
Milwaukee's in current form, and then I got the lineups
almost even. Milwaukee maybe a slight edge, but very negligible.
So I'm not going to bet a side, that's for sure.
Lighter used to be one of my chronic walkers, but
he's actually got the walks down now. He's only walking
two point two per nine now.
Speaker 5: Per game.
Speaker 4: It's pretty good. Milwaukee does have very disciplined batters. They're
walking almost three point five per game, but I've only
projected two point eight, and so I'm not going to
bet Lighter's walks here, so there's really no way I.
Speaker 5: Can go here. I'm kind of stuck. So I'm not
going to bet this one. It's too tight.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I see Queen Rocks in the chat says
like Metts do not bet that list for me, here's
a problem like that. There's and I don't think the
Mets is a great example of this, but I do
think there's some teams right now, especially in the National League,
Brewers Cubs, like where they're kind of locked in Phillies,
where they're kind of locked into their spot and then
in the next three weeks are going to be very experimental.
I think the Mets hope that that would be the
case for them, but suddenly the Giants are like, you know, hey,
you might have to win a few games. Reason I
bring that up now is like the Brewers are probably
the team that that's most in that spot. I mean,
this is a team that's eighty nine and fifty six.
The next best team in the National League is the
Phillies with eighty four wins. So not only have they
completely won their division already, but like even the Phillies
would need to like win a bunch of games just
to put some pressure on them.
Speaker 1: So, yeah, it is going to be Chad Patrick.
Speaker 2: They're really just sort of and when I say going
through the motions, I don't think the players so much
are going through the motions as much as it's like
the coaching staff just spreading the innings around. Hey, let's
get Chad Patrick a star. Maybe maybe we get this
guy some innings. We're not gonna tax our bullpen. It's
gonna be every other day, maybe every third day. And
what that means is you're not gonna get like at
the end of a game. You might not get like
leverage arms in their normal spots. You're gonna it's really
just about getting an inning or two here. And they're
staying fresh because we're a playoff team now. The Rangers
are an interesting scenario because you've got a team that
I think maybe felt like they were out of it
at some point and suddenly they're very much back in
seven and three their last ten games, back to back wins,
a game and a half out of the out of
the wildcard, and I think if you're the Rangers, you're
looking at the Mariners like we're better than this team.
Rangers run differential this year plus eighty seven Mariners plus
thirty four Rangers have a great pitching top to bottom
all year. And you know what, Jack Lighter is nasty.
And here's and here's the thing about Jack Lighter. The
organization did him no favors. The way they called him up,
put him back down, called him up, put him back down.
They essentially called Jack Lighter up in the emergency star
spot like three different times. You typically don't do that
to prospects. Typically, the guy that gets the twenty seventh
man emergency start, Hey, we need you, but we're probably
gonna send you back down type thing is a journeyman
guy where they don't care if he's a pinat at
the big league level, it's like, come do your job.
Speaker 1: If you get rocked, it's all good, you're going back down.
Speaker 2: You don't do that to kids usually, because you know,
guy like Jack Lighter, he's part of your future. He's
he's you know, they're a little bit more fragile, right,
like they they have confidence issues. As they come up
and get bombed, it messes with their confidence. I truly
believe that was the problem for Lighter. Colin pointed out
in the chat, Look how good he's been to August
two point seventy six ERA for the Rangers, a batting
average against a two oh nine, and then he starts
off September. Last time out, six innings, two runs against
the Diamondbacks. Light there's a play on for me right now.
This is one of the few angles I'm considering today.
So we'll circle back by the end of the show.
But I do like the Rangers. This might be my part.
Speaker 3: Go ahead, Brian, Yeah, I just want to touch on
two things. First of all, when you're looking at injuries
for this Brewer's team, we've got what I lose my spot.
One of the starters earlier in the season that had
a lot of success that's been on the il he's
not playing, and that'll be Trevor McGill. He had a setback.
They thought he was coming back, and I didn't understand
the move. They just sent Yoho back down to the minors.
And he's supposed to be your closure of the future.
You want him in these games. These games are not important.
These are the kind of games you should use them in.
And you know they still they still have Eric Vetti
on the major league roster. Why do you do that?
I don't understand. I don't know, but yeah, it's a
Milwaukee team that you've got to take a look at
every game separately. At the motivation is not going to
be there. But I still like the players on this team.
They've still got a very good manager and they can
win any game they play.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't make any sense. Yoho should be the
guy closing games right now for the Brewers.
Speaker 4: Some teams are actually not trying to win. It's really weird,
but I think they're actually not trying to win some teams.
Speaker 5: I don't know why.
Speaker 2: It's like it's I mean, I think the Brewers look
and say, we've done enough, We're in great position. We
like where we're at, so we're gonna we're gonna like
manage the next three weeks to like put us in
the best possible scenario to go into the playoffs. But like,
I guess what Brian and I are saying is like
Yoho is a guy that I look at and say,
he could probably help you in the playoffs if he's
if he if he can get to if he is
what they expect him to be. So and he's a
younger guy, Like why would you not put him out there?
And give him the chance to fail a little bit
at the big league level because he's been this great.
Speaker 4: Time to do it too, playing against major leaguers when
the game, when you don't have to win the game,
it's the perfect opportunity. It's the perfect time to get
him some major league experience. Yeah, perfect time.
Speaker 1: I will.
Speaker 2: I will say this though, the Brewers are super particular
about how they develop pitchers, and and they must there
must be a good reason.
Speaker 1: That's the one thing I'll say with the Brewers.
Speaker 2: Is they they do it such a good job at
the Fellows pitching, they must have a reason for it.
And yeah, it'll be interesting to watch. I expect him.
What's today the ninth. I expect Yoho to be up
for at least the last two weeks of the season
at closing games, getting big leverage spots for them. It'd
be it'd be irresponsible not to, Brian, go ahead, were
you gonna do?
Speaker 3: That's all?
Speaker 2: All right, let's let's move it along. Markins says, can
we cover Tigers Yankees? Another interesting one here because the
Tigers sort of fall into that spot as well, right
like where their positions kind of set. I talked about
this for you know, the last couple of weeks, I said,
this is going to be very experimental roster in September,
it's going to be a borderline tryout for the playoffs,
because I don't think A. J. Hinch has any clue
who like the last seven guys are on his playoff
roster yet, and he is the type of guy that's
gonna have a really good reason for every person he
brings to the playoffs, because that's how he coaches. So, Brian,
what does that do to the Tigers?
Speaker 1: Now?
Speaker 2: I want to see if I have what have they
done recently? What's their I don't have it off the
top of my head, and my screen is frozen.
Speaker 3: So yeah, yeah, the Yankees are last ten, that's gone
seven to three. They're playing very well, only two games
right now to Tiger's Yankees go ahead, Yeah, right now,
we're looking at mines against Warren. Warren's about a one
fifty five favorite eight and a half to the over.
I'm actually seeing. Yeah, Pinnacle's got eight to the over.
So if you like the over there it's minus one fourteen.
That's pretty good if you're playing outside of the United States. Yeah,
meis and Warren here miss been a guy. He's had
a really nice season. Thirteen to five record, three point
eight seven ERA, three point seven to five expected one
point three our whip. It's the best whip he's had
in his three seasons. It was one point five one
point four to seven, now down to one point three.
Still too high. One point three is still too high.
I prefer anything under one point two if I'm looking
at it. But he's had a pretty good season. But
if you take a look at a strikeout to walk
grace show it's only fourteen point seven, which is lower
than the league average. He's got very good extension. Walk
grade's been pretty good. But everything else he's even though
he's got that thirteen to five record, he's an I
would count as him as an average major league pitcher.
Will Warren very inconsistent here Brandon was talking about the
Delman earlier. It was very inconsistent. Will Warren's been that
way four point two eighty ra point four eight expected
one point three to nine whip another whip that's really
too high. Walk rate last year nine point one this
year nine point seven. Strike out minus walkway fifteen point zero.
Very good extension strikeout a percentage pretty good. But he's
gotten hit hard too. He's despite the eight and six record,
he's got an average eggs of velocity six percent, hel
chase rate six barrel fourteenth, hard hit twent So we've
got two guys here that I don't really believe in
is being very good starting pitchers in Major League Baseball,
and we could get over eight and a half here.
It's a good hitting ballpark. It's New York. It's a
whole lot different than Detroit. Let me take a look
at the park factors for today Yankee Stadium. Okay, here
we go. Yankee Stadium wins blowing in. The park factor
says eleven percent normal than their their normal games. So
that's why we're getting a decent number there. The wind
is blowing in, probably enough to keep me off of
the game. But I'm not a big fan to be
the one of these starters. But we all all set
this one up.
Speaker 4: Uh yeah, Will Warren is pretty inconsistent. But if you
look at his last starts, besides this five earned run
game he had against the Yankees, uh, he's been pretty good.
I mean two earned zero five that's not good. One
two zero one two It was pretty good. And most
of those games he's going, he's finishing five innings.
Speaker 5: Not too bad.
Speaker 4: His ERA at home is three point three, is not
too bad at either, much better than I like him
a lot more than Casey Mice. Mice on the road
as a four to two six ERA against the Yankees
in his career.
Speaker 5: Pretty average stats right.
Speaker 4: On the Mendos line as far as ops and and
batting average. Again, where the Yankees have a big advantage.
Speaker 5: Here is the bullpen.
Speaker 4: I got their bullpen rink eight where I got Detroit's
ranked twenty six in current form. That doesn't mean they're
that bad always, uh and forever. It just means right now,
that's how they're performing. I kind of like the Yankees here.
I haven't played it yet. Man, they're such a good
home team. What are they Forty seven and twenty six
at home or something? Yeah, forty three and twenty nine
at home. Pretty good record. But the Tigers are excellent
road team. It's pretty rare you see a Major League
Baseball team with a winning record on the road, but
the Tigers have it thirty six and thirty three, and
the Tigers have two more wins than the Yankees. So
I'm a little hesitant to play them, but if I
were to play it, it would be the Yankees or nothing.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I far at starting pitching is concerned.
Speaker 2: I have Mize and Warren very similar, so I don't
think I'm gonna like, really, I'm not going to get
much on a handicap here from the starters. I think
they're both in good they can both be hit, There's things,
There's more stuff I don't like about either than I like.
So it wouldn't be about on the starting pitching for me.
But I will double down on something I've been saying
for the past couple of weeks, which will hurt me
personally because I do have some nice prices on different
Blue Jays based futures, one of which being was to
win the division, which I placed back in like May.
These are all small, you know, sort of futures type plays.
I think the Yankees are gonna run this Blue Jays
team down. I said it like two weeks ago. I'm
gonna double down on that here. I just they come
into play two games back. The Jay's mL loss back
to back games. They're five and five over their last ten,
and I think this Yankees team can can smell blood
a little bit. And I think they're just the way
that they've shown up for the past two three weeks
looks like a different team than the one that came
out of the All Star Break and was kicking the
ball all over the field in Miami losing that series
to the Marlins.
Speaker 1: So I like the direction that the Yankees are going Tokyo.
Speaker 2: Brandon brought up the you know, just they feed off
of that home crowd, and that's the one thing Yankee Stadium,
Yankees fans, they they know, like it's just different when
it comes to September even right now, like that'll be
a playoff type atmosphere tonight for the Yankees. Like they
just they're you know. And I'll go back to what
I've been saying about the Tigers. This is developmental time
for the Tigers. They are he aj Hinch is going
to manage the next three weeks as a tryout. He's
trying to build a twenty seven man roster that will
put them in the best position to win in the postseason.
The focus right now is not on like going out
and sweeping the Yankees.
Speaker 1: I mean, they don't want to lose.
Speaker 2: Like, trust me, they're not no and I'll go back
to this point that we've made a million times. No
one is playing to lose. That's not what professional athletes do.
It's not what professional ballplayers do. But I do think
that they will. The Tigers will prioritize seeing, you know,
trying to almost have not like putting guys in position
to fail so they can figure out who's got who
they want come October when they might need to go
back here in October and win and win a game
to advance in the postseason. Whereas the Yankees, I think
they're like all in right now. I think they want
this division.
Speaker 1: I think they can.
Speaker 2: Like I said, they smell blood a little bit. They're
two games back of the J's. Do I want to
lay a dollar fifty? Not sure, but certainly the way
I would bet a Yankees are passed here for me,
I like where they're going, and i'd probably play that
out throughout September.
Speaker 1: If they're going to give you a dollar forty dollars.
Speaker 2: Fifty at home with the Yankees, it's really not a
bad bet in my opinion.
Speaker 4: Just to add one thing to what Adam just said
to the conspiracy theorists who think teams are throwing games.
And so the players never throw games that they have contract.
Speaker 5: This is their living.
Speaker 4: They make a living doing this, and they're not going
to make themselves look ridiculous on national TV. The people
who can actually throw the games, or the coaches, the
managers no matter what sport, football, basketball, the coaches and
managers can throw the game by putting crappy players in.
But the players are always trying, no doubt.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and they could do it like I wouldn't put
it past Hinch to like leave MYZ out there even
if you know, like to see if he can battle
through it stuff like that, because you if you're the Tigers,
the only thing you need to do the next three
weeks is figure out that twenty eight or however many
players they let you take to the postseason. I think
it's twenty seven or twenty eight now, man roster that's
gonna be your ALDS team. And so I think MYZ
needs a test like this, and I wouldn't put it
past Hinch to leave him out there and let him
get bombed. So then AJ Hinch come postseason time could
be like, no, you know what, I'm going to go
with six different relievers in Game three of the series
instead of Casey Mice. That's just how I think with
this one, and that's why I think the Yankees probably
get it done at some point. Okay, Mark Kinson, let's
go back to Markinson.
Speaker 1: If he wanted this game earlier.
Speaker 2: I missed it, But I do want to talk about
this one because I said the same thing when I
saw this number.
Speaker 1: Cubbies.
Speaker 2: Kate Horton phenomenal, having a tremendous season, very well meet
maybe their best pitcher. I was shocked to Brian Leonard,
I had your voice in my head talking about Spencer
Stryder not being the same guy. Cubs were like minus
one oh five earlier. I think they're in the minus
one o five minus one ten range right now. That
seems like decent value for Horton. Are you getting involved
with the Cubs today?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I had the same thought process. Cubs open about
a one fifteen favorite. Excuse me an Atlanta one fifteen favorite.
A thought that was a little high. It's still a
little bit of value I think on Cubs. With Horton
against Strider, we're looking at Atlanta maybe a one oh
five to one ten favorite at home eight and a
half here on the total Kate Horton four point excuse me,
two point seven to eighty RA. But he hasn't pitched
that well. He's really three point nine to nine expected
one point one four whip and if you take a
look at his stackcast page, his barrel rich in the
fourteenth percent tele extension in the twenty fifth. He looks
like a major league an average major league pitcher that
depends too much on his fastball. He throws at fifty
percent of the time at ninety five point seven, which
is point seven faster than a normal right handed pitcher
in Major League baseball starter in Major League Baseball. He
does throw five pitches, but he's starting to forcing her
fifty percent of the time. I'm not a big fan
of that. He's not that much better than the league
averaging his fastball. Spencer Streider. After winning twenty games two
years ago healthy with a three point eight six ARA
one oh nine whip, we thought he was the most
dominant pitcher in baseball, and unfortunately injuries happened. I hope
it doesn't cost him though. I hope he really does
bounce back, because he was really exciting and you hate
to see that happen. His extensions of the ninetieth percentile
with right seventy ninth but barrel right thirteenth average ex
vlassy third percentle. He's getting hit hard four point nine
seven ERA four point nine two expected one point three
to nine on the whip. He's also a guy that
throws this for Samer fifty three percent of the time,
but now as opposed to ninety eight where it was,
it's now down to ninety five point six, still better
than league average, but he was dominant with that start
with that fastball in the past, and he's just not
that way any longer. His for Semer this year has
got an expect to ball by three ninety four last
year four four sixty six, So it's not the same
fastball as it was, and he continues to throw it
until he starts developing more off speed pitches. He's going
to struggle. And the only thing is do I trust
the Cubs hitters? You know, tot was eight and a
half here. I prefer the over here. I think he's
a pretty good hitters ballpark, But I don't get I'm
getting quite the number on the Cubs that I would
want to be on them. I'd like to fade Atlanta here,
but I don't fully trust this Cub's offense, so I'd
probably be sitting out this. As opposed to yesterday, where
I liked a lot of games, today, I'm having a
lot of problem. Luckily, they're all on the evening card,
so I've got more time to study these games. But
I do have a four percent up for five dollars
Tuesdays in college football on Friday, and help you give
that a look. But other than that, it's not a
good day for me in Major League basketball. This is
at this point. We'll see how it goes.
Speaker 4: So on yesterday's show, in this matchup, I told you
that Elder had really good numbers against these Cubs, and
I actually made the Cubs team total under my leg
of the parley under four and a half and the
only one. Despite I'm not trying to like say I'm
great and everything, I'm just saying that I think was
an anomenaly because I still have the Cubs ranked number
four and in MLB in current form despite the fact
that they choked yesterday. So what I'm saying is not
how wonderful I am. What I'm saying is that yesterday
I think it was an anomaly because Elder just dominates
these batters throughout his career. Cubs still have a talented lineup.
So when I first saw this matchup, I was thinking, Wow,
gotta be Cubs, and then I broke it down. Atlanta's
bullpen is ranked twenty six in current form, and their
hitting is ranked twenty.
Speaker 5: Oh, I'm sorry, scratch what I just said.
Speaker 4: I got the Cubs ranked seventeen and hitting my fault.
Speaker 5: My bad.
Speaker 4: It's their bullpen that's ranked number four. So the Cubs
have a huge bullpen and they have a huge pitching
advantage here. They still have an advantage over Atlanta despite
being ranked seventeen, because I have Atlanta rank twenty. But
I think yesterday the reason they were so down was
because they were facing a pitcher who's dominated them throughout
his entire career. So I don't think that'll be the
case today. I would like to play the Cubs here.
I have not done it yet. I saw someone in
the chat saying that they'll take Cubs first five. There's
no need to take them first five in my opinion,
because their bullpen is performing really good right now, really
well right now. I got him rank four. Yeah, I
mistook the column the bullpen column for the hitting column.
So yeah, their hitting is a little lackluster right now,
but Atlanta's is more lackluster. And I think the reason
the Cubs only produced one run yesterday was because they
went up against the pitcher that has dominated him, and
I don't think that's going to happen today. Although Strider
does have decent numbers against these guys, but that's when
he was good, and something's off with him. He's had
one good start where he gave up one earned and seven.
The rest of his starts he's given up like five, seven, eight.
I mean, he's just getting shelled. He's not the same.
Something's wrong with him. I don't know if he's injured
or if it's mental, but something's wrong with him. I
would back the Cubs here. I might actually do it
after the sho.
Speaker 1: So I might two TV.
Speaker 2: I'm very I'm very much long term all in on
Cad Horton and like this is we talk about organizations
that mess up younger guys like that. The Cubs, I think,
have a great track record of identifying young talent and
then sort of like you know, not not like letting
them move along at their own pace, not rushing them,
and you know you see some of the like just
look at someone like natt Shaw who you know they
they they really sort of like let him sort of
mature at his own pace, got him up there wasn't
as good at something at one point, goes back down.
Speaker 1: Next time he comes up, he's great. Horton.
Speaker 2: They had every like if they listened to their fans
or like if they got like influenced by Okay, he
you know, he was a first rounder twenty twenty two,
seventh overall pick twenty twenty two, came out of college,
so they never even put him in the miners in
twenty twenty two. They let him go to the complex
because he had so much, so many innings coming off
of a college season at Oklahoma. Twenty twenty three, never
had him go higher than double A, even though everyone
was like talking like get him up, get him up.
Twenty twenty four, let him pitch most of the year
at triple A. There was people that were calling for
him last year and it was like no, like they
really let him take his time. Didn't even call him
up till May this year, and like after his last
couple starts like I'm all in on him.
Speaker 1: I think he's a big league ace.
Speaker 2: I think, like you know, there's some stuff that he's
gonna probably iron out going into the offseason, but like,
I'm very very confident with where he's at, his ability
to go out throw five or six innings at this point. Yeah,
he's got a couple of blow ups, but he's been
very good. And I just like, right now, if you
can give me Kate Horton with this Cubs team at
minus one oh five, and my alternative is the Braves
who are out of it Strider who hasn't been himself
all year. Like, I'm gonna take the Cubs minus one
oh five minus one ten in that.
Speaker 1: Spot all day.
Speaker 2: So I'm with you TV, I'm like gonna probably, you know,
think about it.
Speaker 1: The lost.
Speaker 2: I'll tell you what though, that'll be my parlay A.
I'm at least gonna get it down in the parlay.
So let's go, Cubbies. What are we looking at for
a price right now?
Speaker 1: Brian? Minus?
Speaker 3: I don't know what it is, minus one to five
each way.
Speaker 2: I think coming off the loss, you know, the Cubs
are like one of those teams they are kind of
in the spot where they're locked into their spot a
little bit. But this is a team that had a
awful blow up on Sunday to the Nationals in a
game that they led in the ninth inning lifeless last night.
I do think that they are going to give an
effort at some point this week. And that's the one thing.
The Cubs are still one of the best teams in
the National League.
Speaker 1: I don't know why.
Speaker 2: I feel like people forget that, Like this is still
a team that, I mean, if it wasn't for the
Brewers in their division, would be a division winner this year.
Speaker 1: So I'll go Cubbies here.
Speaker 5: I like the spot Horton.
Speaker 4: Two of his last starts, he's shut him down for
five innings, so.
Speaker 2: He's got a great mix, great mix ton of upside.
I think we could see him even get better.
Speaker 1: I would. He's going to be starting big.
Speaker 2: Games for them in the playoffs, and I'm I'm just
very much on Kate Horton. I think maturity wise too,
He's twenty four. They gave him the amount of time
he needed in the minors, so I don't mind betting
on him at the big league level. I think what
you've seen so far this year is what you're you're
kind of gonna get out of him. And I think
what that's been is like a one to one four
whip and he's been very good, so I'll expect him
to be very good here. And Robert s says, yeah,
Cubs Bats have been frustrating lately, but it's still a
good lineup and they're gonna break out at some point,
So let's go Cubbies.
Speaker 1: That's what I'm definitely interested in for today. All right.
I had one in the chat.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, this is the Jave wants to know any
opinion on Pirates Orioles Like. I like both of these teams.
I wish they weren't playing each other. These are the
two teams Brian that I said, we're kind of play
ons for me in September. Unfortunately they're they're up against
each other here, so I don't know if I can
get into this one. But it looks like Kyle Bradish
maybe Mike Burrows for the Pirates. Do you have anything
Pirates Orioles here?
Speaker 3: I do. I like both of these pictures going here.
I'm we're looking at Bradish, but the one fifty favorite
total of eight, I'm looking at the first half here,
and we're looking at a total of four and a half.
I like it under I think both these starters are
going to have a pretty good game here. I like
both of them, and you're laying about one twenty five here.
That's going to be my parlay on this game. Burrows
comes in four point oh eighty RA, a four point
three three expected one point two six win. But a
lot of his better numbers have been lately. He's I
like him. He's one of those guys that in this
pirate organization that seems to be overlooked. But he's still
only twenty five years old and he's got you know,
eighty five major league innings and there four point oh
two ERA. I mean, that's serviceable, but I think he's
better than what he's done. Kyle Bradish, when he's healthy,
he's great. Comes in with a three point six oh
ERA two point three seven expected one point zero zero whip.
It's not like throwing ten innings this year, only thirty
nine last year because of ANDREI. So nothing is really
not enough sample size for his savant page. But he's
very good. I like both of these pitchers here, and
both of these teams have been very inconsistent offensively. A
lot of games that they really surprised me well. I
especially Pittsburgh. They'll go three or four games scoring one
or two runs and then come up with sixteen. I
spent one of those years for them Baltimore. I also
like their hitters. I'll go to young hitters. But in
this game, I'm gonna play it under four and a
half for the first half and that'll be my part
of the parland.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have to agree with Brian on this one.
Speaker 5: Guys, is five dollars.
Speaker 4: Tuesday, We're gonna have bets up for five dollars and
we're gonna put free plays out as well. So go
to wagertuk dot com see what we got, and also
go to the replay of this video and please leave
a comment for us. We will respond, share some of
your knowledge with us and tell us what action you
got going on today. So I totally agree with Brian.
We got two lackluster lineups that are not performing well,
two very average bullpens, and two really good starters. I
don't know, I've never been a Bratish fan, but are British.
I don't know how he pronounces his name, but.
Speaker 5: My numbers are in love with this guy.
Speaker 4: I've never been a huge fan of his, but man,
the numbers love him, and numbers love Burrows too. You
got two lackluster lineups, bullpens serviceable and two really good starters.
I can't disagree with Brian's under on that one. I
probably would have done that for my leg if he
had not so good call.
Speaker 1: What's the line and the price you got there again, Brian.
Speaker 3: Under four and a half minus one twenty five?
Speaker 1: Yeah, it makes sense. I mean Kyle Bradish vll O
is up.
Speaker 2: He's looked awesome fifteen strikeouts in ten innings at the
big league level.
Speaker 1: So far since coming back up, and.
Speaker 2: He's the exact type of guy that you want to
back probably the rest of the year. This is a
guy that came off a long term injury in an
organization that knew they were out of it. There was
absolutely no reason to rush him back. He basically had
a full spring, if you will, like it from a
rehab standpoint, made like six rehab starts. So really it's
like May first for Kyle Bradish right now, while all
these other guys are like, you know, dragging innings, are
getting up there trying to get to the finish line,
it might as well be May first.
Speaker 1: For Kyle Bradish, he it's like his season's just starting.
Speaker 2: And like I said, is the Orioles broadcast during his
last start pointed out Vllo is up and his stuff
just looked straight up nasty, Like those really his his
only mistake, if you will. He left a couple of
pitches up that got like ambushed and hit out of
the ballpark. Otherwise, like no one was really stringing hits
to And those are two, you know, like he faced
two very respectable lineups, I mean the Padres and the
Rock The Padres and the Red Sox are both likely
in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: And you know, for.
Speaker 2: Again, over those two starts, eight hits, ten innings, eight hits. Yeah,
he had the four earned runs because he let a
couple of balls get hit out of the ballpark, but
fifteen strikeouts. You know who doesn't hit ball in the
ballpark very often, It's the Pirates. They do it as
little as any team in the league. So yeah, I
don't know that they're gonna really have the crooked number
here against Bradish and Burrows is good in his own respect,
He's another one of these guys in the pirates organization
that gets lost in the shuffle because everyone wants to
talk about schemes, Chandler, Hunter, Barco, Brian, I'm forgetting other ones.
Speaker 1: Like who's the Ashcraft?
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, there's so many good arms that a guy
like Mike Burrows kind of just gets ignored. And in
other organizations, I think they'd be very excited about him.
So I like, where your head's at here on the
under and James Barry the under under first five under,
four and a half. Is Brian's play here and that'll
be his leg for the parlay Tokyo, Brandon, have we
talked about your leg yet?
Speaker 1: Or do you want to throw the last game out here?
Speaker 4: We already talked about it, So we can do one
game and I'll just come at the end and say
what it is.
Speaker 5: But yeah, we covered it already.
Speaker 1: All right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's uh, let's squeeze one more in here. Someone
in the chat wanted to talk Zebbie Matthews. So I
think it's really like, look, we could get that one
done quick. I had a little bit of an opinion there.
It's Twins Angels, not exactly a game that means much.
But Brian, we kind of talked about, you know, thinking
Zebby could could turn a corner at some point. This
looks like a relatively good matchup for him. Are you
Are you liking the Twins and Zebby at all here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, he's pitched pretty well as of late, much more consistent.
He's about a one to fifteen favorite against Kyle Hendrix
a total of nine. Give you two guys that we
talked about last time. They pitched and had some had
some good numbers. Both of them did pretty well. Hendricks
last last month or so, he's been pitching very well.
As as I say, while other it's a long season.
While other people get tired, KYL. Hendricks has been a
guy went out. He's pitched a lot innings for for
the Cubs and now for the Angels. We've got two
teams that I really don't trust the hitters very The
Angels are a lot of like the Yankees, home runs
or nothing, and Minnesota is a team that doesn't really
hit a lot of home runs. They're more like the Pirates.
They keep the ball in play. With these two going,
I kind of like the Ondre a little bit here.
It's it's in nine. Zebbie Matthews comes in four point
seven three e r A four point two to one
expected is which still high. One point four to two barrel.
Ray is in the seventeenth percentile at grand ball rate
in the nineteen But this is it's this situation where
I like him overall, throw six different pitches, doesn't throw
his four seemer a lot only thirty nine percent, but
it is it ninety six point three miles per hour,
So he's got he's got the good fastball if he
needs it. Colein Hendrix. If you take a look at
his numbers, his actupt average ex of velocity this year,
ninety six percentile, chase rate eighty fourth, hard hit rate, ninetieth,
his off speed run value is in the eighty eighth percentile.
That's what he does. He throws junk up there, and
he's only got four pitches, and he only throws his
fastball fifteen percent of the time because it's eight and
a half miles lower, miles per hour lower than an
average right hander. And he knows what he's got and
he finds a way to do it, and I like it.
The number four point eight one e are is that
impressive four point one to nine expect It's a little
bit better whip about one thirty. That's a little bit
higher than what he had earlier in his career. But
he's not going to strike anybody out his web right
fourth percentile, strike out right fourth extension first, basketball velocity first.
He's not a strikeout guy, but he is a guy
that gives you innings and I like that. So yeah,
I kind of like the under in this one here.
Don't trust the Twins on the road to lay it.
I thought I would, but I can't get there. If
it was a pick up game, I might be more
more inclined to go that way, but I don't want
to lay the one fifteen and one twenty years. So
at this point, just an opinion on the Twins, and
I do like the under.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think you can lay one twenty or
more for either one of these starting pitchers or either
one of these teams. Pretty bad teams. We have Zebulon
and ever since a couple of shows ago. I ripped
his parents for giving him that name. He's actually been
pitching pretty well. He had one clunker, but I do
like him more than Hendrix. Putting these two teams together, Yeah,
the Angels many, they just can't hit anything, I got
the Angels ranked twenty fifth or worse in both bullpen
and batting in current form. The problem is the Twins
bullpen is actually worse, but their hitting is about mediocre
around average, and I got Zebie Matthews Zebulon about five
points higher than Hendrix. So if anything, I would go
with the Twins. But with that bullpen, you can't trust them.
Maybe take the first five with the Twins if I
were to bet it, but I'm not going to.
Speaker 2: Yeah, two teams that are kind of hard to trust
at this point of course, both are you know, the
Twins have been out of it since the All Star break.
Speaker 1: The Angels sort of gave that like valiant effort to
hang around.
Speaker 2: Now they're doing what we kind of i think talked
about on the show and expected them to do, which
was fade into obscurity.
Speaker 1: That's what they've done.
Speaker 2: Five and five last ten games, nine games out of
the wild parts that they're out of it minus one
twenty nine run differential is awful, Like that is really bad.
I think the Angels might be a team that you
want to play against down these last couple of weeks,
just because they gave they gave it all. They gave
it their all to stay in this race, and now
I think it's like finally that they're finally done.
Speaker 1: And so I actually like the Twins here.
Speaker 2: As tough as it is to say, because this is
a team that I don't necessarily want to trust their
bullpen or like like sort of bank on them needing
to win a game. I really like Matthews sees. I've
said it on the show like three times. I'll say
it again. He's a guy that you want to circle
going into this offseason and be ready to play on
him next year because I think he's he's very very
close to having it figured out, and who knows, you
may actually see him figure it out now and finish
the year very strong.
Speaker 1: You could argue he is doing that already right.
Speaker 2: Last two starts Padres six innings, two earned runs, three strikeouts,
no walks.
Speaker 1: That's all.
Speaker 2: He's been a big thing for him. He's always in
the zone. He doesn't walk anyone. And I think as
Zebby figures out his command in the zone, because that's
the thing at the big league. You can mow through
the miners throwing a lot of strikes and having a
big fastball like Matthews does in the big league level,
if you don't have the command in the zone, these
guys will hit you. And I think that's what he's
realized early in his career.
Speaker 1: That's what he's.
Speaker 2: Gonna probably work on in the offseason. But I already
think he's starting to figure it out. The White Sox
last time out, they were red hot going into that game.
One run, six innings, one run, five strikeouts, and you know,
the two walks is actually an encouraging sign because it
means that he's starting to pitch to the corners a
little bit more and he's okay with like maybe you know,
giving someone a free pass as opposed to throwing a
fastball right down the middle that gets crushed. So I
really love where Matthews is is trending toward. I would
probably look to bet on him the rest of the way.
It's just it's tough to bet on the Twins, But
in this case, I don't like the Angels at all.
I'd be willing to bet on the Twins. So twins
here for me. And if you don't like the bullpens,
maybe as zeb first five. I think he's gonna pitch
good and and you know what, I'll throw one more
thing out there.
Speaker 1: Hendrix.
Speaker 2: He's a numbers accumulator, but it's not like he's gonna
give up nothing. I don't think he's He's going to
start without giving up at least one earned run since
like early June, so that there's a good chance the
Twins will get something here at some point. Makes me
like that first five angle for the Twins even more.
All right, TV, you want to close this parlay out?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can't believe I'm doing this, but I think
I'm gonna take the Cleveland Guardians over the Royals today.
I really liked Cameron to start the season, but I
just don't anymore. And mister Hawaii Cantillo just pitching really
well in his last few starts, So I'm gonna go
with the Guardians here. Hopefully the Royals continue to be listless.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and in your in your case, hopefully Bobby with
juniors out another game, because I think they would be
really up against it against the Lefty and Cantio if
Wit does not play tonight. And that beat writer saying
he hasn't picked up a bat yet is massively concerning
if you're a Royals fan.
Speaker 1: In my O, Brian, do we have a line there
for that one?
Speaker 3: Yeah? About one eighteen right now?
Speaker 5: Oh that's good.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's all. I'll tell you what TV. That's
a if Bobby Woo Junior is in fact out again today,
that's a great net and I think it'll probably go
up to like minus one third.
Speaker 4: Yeah. I don't think I've taken Cleveland all season, not once, but.
Speaker 2: I think I took them once and they got walked
off in Arizona after leading the whole game.
Speaker 1: That's like literally the only time I took them all year.
Speaker 4: So I'm with you there, right, Yeah, that'll be my leg.
And remember, guys, it's five dollars Tuesday. Uh, we're all
gonna have plays out. I'll tell you what mine is.
For those of you watching, I just put out the
Cubs money line for my five dollars place, so you
don't have to buy mine.
Speaker 5: But take a look at what we got.
Speaker 4: We got lots of great cappers, and Brian and Adam
probably have not given you their play, so go grab theirs.
Speaker 2: I love that TB TV giving out a free client play,
which I very much, very much agree with.
Speaker 1: Who knows I may end up on the Cubbies too.
Speaker 2: That's one that I'm I'm thinking about a lot, and
that is the parlay leg for me. So to recount
the parlay, Cubs money line is my leg. Also a
client play for Tokyo Brandon, So let's go Cubbies. TB
is on the Guardians, which Brian should be happy to hear,
because I know he really, deep down wants the Guardians
to make the playoffs somehow, even.
Speaker 1: Though he doesn't think they're going to.
Speaker 2: And then Brian's on the Pirates, Pirates Orioles under first
five under four and a half.
Speaker 1: So that pays plus five fifty. We need it to
get back in the plus.
Speaker 2: I really want to finish the year in the positive
in the parlays, so we need this one plus five fifty.
You've got Cubs money Line, Guardians money Line, Pirates Orioles
first five under four and a half. That's your three
teamer for today. Another great show, guys. We're not going
anywhere justics football started. We are very much all in
on the basis right through the world series.
Speaker 1: Appreciate you having.
Speaker 2: Appreciate you guys tuning in if you missed any part
of the show. Someone was asking for Brewers Rangers. We
talked about it, so just go back to the replay.
It's up live, it's up on demand on the wager
Talk YouTube channel. And while you're over there, drop us alike,
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try to read them all. Have a good day everyone,
and we'll see you guys back here in the morning
nine am Eastern For more total bases