Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we do always start this show
by being transparent. We didn't do any shows over the weekend,
and you know there's been New Year's all that good stuff,
so not a whole lot going on. But it is
good to be back here. My here didn't start off
so great. It's two and three so far, but we
can clean that up easy, being no good to be
back with you. How you doing today?
Speaker 2: I'm doing good ski NBA. I took the day off yesterday.
It was all NFL slight NFL even because it was
a weird week Week eighteen, and a couple of college basketballs.
College basketball continues to be good. I think I'm number
two over at wager Talk since December one. So we'll
look to get back into the NBA groove here tonight.
Fairly decent sized boards, some weird start times Philly in
an eight forty game, a little weird at home but TV,
I guess does that.
Speaker 1: Eight twenty? Is that what you say?
Speaker 3: I saw?
Speaker 2: Eight forty?
Speaker 1: Mm? Well, I guess yeah. For you guys, time that
is late for a game. You know, we have games
all night over here on the West coast. I know,
all right, let's get to it. First game up, we
have Knicks and Pistons. Opened up minus one and a
half for the Knicks. Looks like it's all over the place.
I see Detroit won some places, pick on some places,
plus one some places. So just line shot depending on
which side you like their the total open two thirty
six down to about two thirty two and a half everywhere.
We have Cade, Duncan Robinson both probable, looks like Levert's
questionable during and Tobias Harris look like they're both out.
For the Knicks. Josh Hart and Shammon are both out.
The first thing that comes to MI mind in this
game is I think I would trust more defense than anything.
I would agree with the market pushing his game down
on the total and yeah, I mean that's really the
only way I feel about this game. I don't like
New York on the road. You know they've been much
better at home. But yeah, just a lower scoring game
for me is what I'm thinking here of you know
anything from you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, had a slight lean to the Knicks.
Speaker 2: I thought the situation Detroit back to backs, Nicks rested
ready for this game. No Jalen Duran always bothers me
for Detroit. I just feel like he does so much
work inside that the Knicks may be able to do
some damage in there. So there was a slight lean
for me towards New York. And obviously the road hasn't
been as good as the.
Speaker 3: Home, but.
Speaker 2: Standings wise, at this point in time, everybody chasing Detroit
would be a nice win for the Knicks to get
a game closer. Detroit holding onto that number one spot,
so whenever they're without Jay during that does bother me.
Speaker 3: We see.
Speaker 2: Detroit now getting money. I'm seeing the screen pop to
pick'em's now and even Detroit minus one in some spots.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a back to back for this Pistons team.
Business just played who was it last night? They played
the Calves. Yeah, yeah, they got a w in that
one last night. So the next do have a rest advantage.
It is still the third game in four for them.
We'll see how this one shakes out. Next game. You know,
take a look at Chicago and Boston opened up minus
nine for Boston. That's how it's eleven and a half
now total. Not a whole lot of movement. I just
see Tatum out for Boston. For the Chicago side, Kobe
White has been upgraded to probable. No Collins, Flowers, Giddy
or Smith taking a look, Oh my bad here taking
a look at the Celtics. They did who did play
last game? I know they won. I can't remember who
they played for the Clippers. Okay, Yeah, they blew them
out like one one fifteen for the Bulls coming off
for lost as a favorite, so transfer them to bounce back.
Third game, four nights for them. I just I don't
trust the Bulls at all. I don't. It's crazy. You're
getting double digits here and I still can't trust them.
The Celtics, the big margins don't really bother me because
the way they play, they're gonna shoot a lot of threes.
They're gonna do the things you need them to do
to win by big margins. So I just would continue
to fade the Bulls and the Celtics have been playing
good basketball, so some way, shape or form, I don't
want to be down the Celtics here. You know, what
do you think about it?
Speaker 2: Yeah? What bothered me about Boston here laying this price
ski was five game road trip, first game back home
be their third game in the New year. Already, it
seems like we just had New Year's Day, but it'll
be Boston's third game since New Year's Day came, and
again it was a West Coast road trip. They're playing
really well, so it's hard to bet against them. I'm
showing six and two against the points. Last eight games,
they've been scoring well. I just think that that first
game back always seems to come into playoff of the
extended road trip, So maybe the plus eleven and a
half look a little better to me than they do
to you. But to the point about Chicago not being trustworthy,
that's true too. I just feel like Boston's probably a
little bit a little fatigue factor maybe shows up here tonight.
They've really closed the gap inside the division. I looked
up this morning and saw Boston right on the knicks heels,
and I'm like, how did that even happen? Boston was
nowhere to be found a little while back, but they've
been playing really well as of late.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think I'm gonna get involved on this game.
This next game pretty interesting to me. I've kind of
gone back and forth and I've seen different openers, you know,
one side. I saw say opener was four and a half.
Another one I saw say it was minus one. So
I'm uncertain what the opener was here. But right now
we have Toronto minus two and a half and the
total of two thirty four two thirty four and a
half for Atlanta. No Trey Young, Luke Canard is questionable
for the Raptors, don't have everybody except for Yaka Perle
for this Hawks team. It is the third game, and
for nice for them, this Hawks team they win without
Trey Young. They lose when he's in. They play over
games when he's in, the under games when he's out.
It seems pretty straightforward with the with the Hawks, this
Raptors team, they do get at RJ. Barry back in
the lineup, and they need him because they were playing
absolutely terrible without them. Ats y straight up wise, however
you want to look at it, but I still just
don't like the lack of Yaka Pertle down there in
the pain. So this one is it's tough for me
if I look at last five games that they tell
me Toronto has been a better offense, defense and rebounding team.
They're at home. Why don't we take Toronto here.
Speaker 2: Raven and they just mauled Atlanta. It's like a back
to back here with a day in between. But one
thirty four one seventeen Toronto with I think you mentioned
this last time RJ Barrett back a little bit different
and without Trey Young, and those splits are crazy Ski
No Trey Young.
Speaker 3: You can bet Atlanta with Trey Young.
Speaker 2: Very difficult to bet Atlanta. I could see, you know,
from a situational standpoint, from a spot standpoint where you
might get lanted a bounce back after being beat by
seventeen by this team. But Toronto's got a little bit
of ground to make up for as poorly as they
played while RJ.
Speaker 3: Barrett was out.
Speaker 2: Purdle's a difference maker for sure, because Toronto doesn't really
have a lot to back that position up in the
form of.
Speaker 3: Being equal to like Purdles.
Speaker 2: So a couple fundamental things I could see here that
favorite Atlanta. I think that at this point in time
Toronto could go on another little bit of a streak here.
Speaker 3: So I didn't play, didn't like either way.
Speaker 2: Game did hit two fifty one a couple of days ago,
So maybe you want to look total here these Atlanta
totals seemed to go crazy a little bit.
Speaker 1: We'll keep going down the list Sons and Rockets. Sons
are on a back to back. They just beat Okay,
see they opened up eight and a half. Quite underdog,
still sitting right there. Totals come down from two twenty
four and a half to twenty two and a half.
Adams is questionable, Shan Gun is out. I mean that
could be big missing you know, two of those. I mean,
that's kind of Houston's identity being big, you know, lengthy.
I don't know. Grayson Allen questionable, Jayden Green out. I
want to say the Rockets Rockets at home with the
rest advantage opponent on the back to back. Rockets have
been really good with the rest advantage so far this season.
They've covered six out of seven games. You know, you
always could see somebody added to this injury report for
the Suns team throughout the day. I like to think
the Rockets are the right side here, Ravino, how do
you view it?
Speaker 3: Yeah? I kind of think so too.
Speaker 2: Ski and I paid a little more attention to their
team total here one fifteen and a half, simply because
Phoenix on back to back played okay, see yesterday. Any
time you play okayc you have to work to play
then because they're relentless.
Speaker 3: So it could be a bit of.
Speaker 2: A fatigue league with travel here for Phoenix Rockets without
Steven Adams certainly not as good on the boards when
he's in the game. Shanoon brings a lot of points
with him, But I just feel like Houston's got enough
offense to compensate.
Speaker 3: Without Shangoon short term.
Speaker 2: So I looked at Houston team total over I think
they'll get to one sixteen against Phoenix again. I'm a
lot of the stuff I went through today SKI really
depended upon, like these scheduling situations and these travel situations.
I just find a few teams in bad spots, and
I think Phoenix is one of them.
Speaker 1: I agree guys in the chat thinking this is one
you can get in early with the Rockets, I think
that's good as well. Next we have Hornets and Thunder
under the other side of that. They lost to Phoenix
last night. Opened up fifteen looks like fifteen and a
half open two thirty three? How is two thirty five
depending where you're looking at or Okay, see Hardenstein is questionable.
Jalen Williams is doubtful. Not Jada for the Hornets. I
mean the usual sinners or bigs are out in this game. Yeah, Salowan,
Brandon Miller, Knepo, and Diabate all probable. I like to think.
I mean, if okay See won the game last night,
you know, I could feel a little bit better at
trying to think about the Hornets. But okay See, off
the loss, I just don't want to step in front
of that train. So I know they haven't been playing
the best lately, but I do know they'll be focused
after losing that game yesterday. So this is when I
think I'm on the sideline here. Anything from you, yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean I'm one hundred percent with you on side
there with the thought process that Okase can do damage here.
They're used to winning by that type of margin and Charlotte,
we know, can lose by that type of margin without
Charlotte having bigs. I mean, okay See is a team
that attacks the ram. It probably leads to point production
here out of Oklahoma City. They're one of those that
can get to the high one twenties fairly easily.
Speaker 3: I think some form of that.
Speaker 2: You know, either Oka See first half Oka see full
game Oka see team total over. Just don't know that
Charlotte's gonna have enough here. The only reason I probably
could trust full game total ski over if I wanted
to include both. However, if Oklahoma City is a little
bit irritated by the loss yesterday, we know they can
d up and that would spell a little bit of
trouble for Charlotte.
Speaker 3: So I'd rather isolate.
Speaker 2: Maybe look at the OKAC side where total is concerned,
and if you're playing side, I don't think he could
go wrong with a number of options on Oklahoma City
here half game quarter, I don't think it matters.
Speaker 1: Right next game we have Denver and Philly. There was
big moves on this game, and it opened up minus
nine for Philly all the way out to fourteen and
a half for fifteen Total sitting around where it opened though, everybody,
I mean, do I really gotta lest everybody's out for
the Nuggets. Everybody you can name and the starting lineup
is out. Peyton Watson is playing. I'll say that Bruce
Brown is out there, Spencer Jones. It's gonna be tough.
They don't have a lot of bodies out there for
the Nuggets tonight.
Speaker 2: And be as.
Speaker 1: Probable or Breads out, Whaffer's out. I mean, I don't
like the thought of laying this big of a number
with the Sixers at all, but just it's hard for
me to back Hug Guess too. I mean, you do
know those guys who step in are gonna play hard
at the very least. I think if you like the Sixers,
they've been pretty good first half. I don't know if
you know. I think if you like the Sixers, you
take them early. Other than that, Denver might fight all
the way to the end. You know, these guys finally
getting playing time are going to want to show up.
We see this time and time again. Six or perst
half or Nuggets pull game. That's what I'm thinking, you know,
one of the two. What do you think?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's really hard to lay that price with Philadelphia,
and you just don't know what their mindset would be
coming in here playing a bunch of reserves. I mean,
like you say, we see this in the NBA all
the time, maybe not to this extent where you've got
basically a brand new starting five, Like your reserves are
your starters now and they probably only go about seven
deep quality wise. Here tonight, so they're gonna have to
play a lot of minutes. These guys haven't played a
lot of minutes, so I don't know that it'll bother them.
I looked at Phillies team total because I just don't
see a lot of deepense, especially at the rim for
the Nuggets. So it could be a huge night for
Joel Embiid. It could be a huge night for the
rim attackers like MAXI like Edgecombe. That was the way
I initially looked here. I just thought, I don't want
to lay the points. I don't trust Philly enough to
win by sixteen, but I think to get to one
twenty two here Denver was giving it up with their
starting unit.
Speaker 3: Just don't know that they won't give.
Speaker 2: It up here without a lot of size on the
floor here against Philadelphia tonight. So maybe a Philly team total.
Speaker 1: Look, I can see that. I wonder what that number is.
Let me just take a look here. Phill eighteen total
looks like one twenty one and a half. I think
that is doable. All right. Next game we're gonna go
Utah and Portland opened up minus seven for the Blazers,
down to six. Pretty much everywhere total open two forty six,
down as low as two forty one and a half.
As far as the injury report, A's Bailey Nurkic both questionable,
k Love me Ain't both out for the Blazers, Robert
Williams questionable, Jeremy Grant, School Henderson, Drew Latise, tyble Wesley.
They're all out for that Blazers team. You know a
couple of things here, Rob, You know, the Jazz are
another team who've been pretty straightforward. I mean, at home,
they play very high scoring games. On the road not
so much. All right, That's pretty much how it's been
for them for this Blazers team. If I trust him
to do anything lately, I want to say, I trust
him to play a little bit of defense. Let me
pull up these numbers. Yeah, number seven defensive raded team
last five games. Neither team really playing with too much pace.
If the Blazers are going to cover this game, I
don't think it's by you know, just lighting it up.
I think is by offensive outbursts. I think it's because
they're playing better defense. Granted, Jazz defense has been terrible,
but I just don't think you'll need that many points
to win this game for the Blazers. You just need
to lock in defensively, So I do lean towards the
hunderd and I guess a slight lane towards the Blazers.
Anything from you here, you know on Portland and Utah.
Speaker 2: Well as straightforward as the Jazz have been at home,
Portland sidewise has been that straightforward, right. You can't play
them as a favorite. You could play them as a dog.
The home record, the home splits are pretty much in
favor of Portland when they're a home dog, not so
much when they're a favorite.
Speaker 3: But to your earlier point about under, you.
Speaker 2: Know, the last nine games Portland has played, eight of
those have stayed under this total. Because this is a
ridiculously high to forty two and a half because of
Utah being placed in there. But I mean the Blazers
haven't played in nine straight games. They've only played one
that approached this number against Dallas they got to forty seven.
Otherwise they're not just under, they're like ten or more
points under to forty two. So under could be a
good look here for the Blazers, if you just want
to use that a blanket statement. Under they're eight and
one to the under not just this number, eight and
one to the under overall last nine games, so pretty
big signal sign toward.
Speaker 3: The Portland team playing unders here. I couldn't play them
as a favorite, though, so maybe less than two forty
two is a way to go there.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, I'm just thinking about There was a
game versus Mavericks not that long ago where I was
thinking about the same thing. I went to back Portland's
defense and ended up covering the minus two and a
half and let the Mavericks go over their team total.
So that's giving me a little bit of hesitation right now.
But yeah, I'm looking at it. And of the last
ten games under for the Blazers, Jazz are four and
oh to the I mean four and oh to the
under as a road dog the last four, but the
Blazers on the other side two and oh to the
over as a home favorite. So I don't know a
lot of different ways to look at it. I just
think it'll be slower paced, more defensive, at least for
the Blazers side, and less than two forty two. All right,
last game on the slate for today. You know we
have Warriors and Clippers. This one opened up minus one
and a half for Golden State. It looks like it's
still right there at one and a half total opened
up two twenty four. I see two twenty five and
a half. As far as the injuries, you have Deeth
Curry and l J. Cryer out for the Warriors. For
the Clippers, Dereck Jones, Junior Bogdanovich and neither Houser. I'm
sorry those two are both out. Hawsers questionable. Clippers have
been playing good basketball lately, rob you know, and then well,
I think they won six in a row after Tyerle Lowis,
you know, pretty much calling out the team, and also
Zubaka went down, there was more brook Lopez, a little
bit more floor spacing. Brook Lopez did come back in
their most recent game, and they lost. I don't know
if that's coincidence or what they lost to the Celtics
and blowout fashion. It could have been just the Celtics
shooting lights out, you know, and Zubac was on a
minut's limit and the Clippers couldn't get a rebound. It
could have been a lot of different things in that game.
We'll see if they can get back on track here
versus the Warriors at the house the Warriors. I feel
like they've been playing solid lately, but I don't think
they've been playing really any competition. And the Warriors haven't
been good so far on the road. They've won eight
out of twenty games so far on the road this season.
I think I like and truest more of what I've
seen from the Clippers lately, and I'm just uncertain what
you're gonna get from the Warriors, and I just know
that they haven't been good on the road. So in
this game, i'd prefer to Clippers. Aret. Are you viewing it?
You know?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm included in that group ski Clippers siding. I
was trying to get to it here while you were talking,
but I couldn't. I just want to, if you have
a shot there, look up last five last ten games
and see where Clippers pace or tempo has been.
Speaker 3: Because I saw an interview with Kawhi.
Speaker 1: It's dead last last five games.
Speaker 2: I know that, and Kawhi had said that with Zubots down,
he credited some of their good play to playing quicker.
So that's why I was asking about what their pace
was the last five games. He seemed to think they
were playing a little bit quicker, and I could be
one of those Jalen Brown situations because well, I mean,
when you just put your mind to it, you think
to yourself, you hear a guys say that, but you
think having brook Lopez in for Zubos, brook Lopez is
no quicker. But your point about floor spacing probably helps.
I'd more trust this quote from Chris Dunn, who actually
said everybody's urgency went up as a group as we
looked at the calendar, We're understanding that it was starting
to get not too late into the season, but we're
getting into the thick of the season and.
Speaker 3: We wanted to turn things around. It seems like it's a.
Speaker 2: Little bit of a rejuvenated ball club here for the Clippers,
and they have been scoring a little bit better than
what they were previously. Obviously, oh god, Walker's and tennis ball,
so still last in pace by the numbers, but they
seem to think it's going a little bit better. And
I also saw Jeff Van Gundy credited for some differences
in defensive schemes that have helped over the course of
the last two weeks. So I see the Clippers making
the necessary adjustments. I see that showing up in the results.
Feel like asking them to win straight up at home,
probably not too much to ask.
Speaker 1: For, all right, you know that's the NBA card. We
got through all a games in about twenty three to
twenty four minutes. I think we did a pretty solid
job here. So before we move it over the best bets,
you know, I didn't pull up anything football on the screen,
and I haven't double check was still up. I'll do
that today, So that's my bad on that, but I
guess I'll just pass it to you. I ask you
if there's anything you would like to promote, and if
you have a best bet for the show, we love
to hear it. If you don't, it's all good.
Speaker 3: Promotion wise.
Speaker 2: I'll just really quick ski say that the FCS Cowe
Football Championship game is tonight. I've been six and two
in the FCS playoffs and have a best bet on
that game tonight. So you can check that out over
at wager talk dot com. Like you, I don't think
there's a lot of active active packages site wide for
wager Talk. Maybe they'll come out with those tonight. I
know there's a New Year's Day special, but for anything
package wise, go ahead and check wagertalk dot com. Best
bet for the show, though, I bet the Knicks, and
I like the Knicks tonight. I just thought the scheduling
was tough on Detroit, the back to backs, having to
go play Cleveland now come back play without Jalen during
two nights in a row, just a personal thing for
me where I don't like Detroit without during even though
they won last night in that game. So I like
the Knicks. I'm showing that my bouncing back. Now we've
been on the show less than a half hour and
that line's gone from Nicks one and a half to
pick them Detroit maybe one and out back to Knicks
minus one. So I'll take that number for purposes of
this show. Best bet Nicks at Detroit tonight.
Speaker 1: All right? For myself, Yeah, I'm gonna apologize, but I'm
not making a bet this early today. I'm going to
wait a little bit. There are a few that I
do like, but I just want to put them in
a little bit closer to you know, knowing who all
is gonna play, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So
I'll be making my plays probably about between two and
three pm. So I've you know told you guys throughout
the show who I'm liking, what I'm looking at. Just
don't want to push the button yet and I don't
like giving best bets I don't have in my pocket,
so that would be it for today, Veno. I do
always appreciate you taking the time to break the games
down with me. Definitely helps my process. I'm sure you
help everybody else out there, and we appreciate everybody out
there for tuning into the show. We'll be back again tomorrow.
I'm pretty sure we'll have a nice slate, A best
to luck everybody on all your actions to night, and
we will catch you then.