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<v Speaker 1>Let's say good morning now to the host of How

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<v Speaker 1>to Money on KFI. It's our very own Joel Larsgard,

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<v Speaker 1>who stood us up yesterday because he wanted to go

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<v Speaker 1>to an awards show.

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<v Speaker 2>I know, I'm sorry about that, Amy, That's okay.

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<v Speaker 3>Was it fun you were at the the iHeart Podcast

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<v Speaker 3>Awards show.

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<v Speaker 4>That's right, it was so much fun. I didn't win,

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<v Speaker 4>but I enjoyed being there. It was so much fun

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<v Speaker 4>just to meet all the interesting podcasters doing cool stuff

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<v Speaker 4>in the industry.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, okay, so back to money.

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<v Speaker 1>Everybody's getting very nervous because of the tariffs in the

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<v Speaker 1>back and forth with all that, and that has people

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<v Speaker 1>talking recession.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, yeah, for sure. In recession.

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<v Speaker 4>There's like this like Goofield saying that economists have predicted

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<v Speaker 4>nine out of the last five recessions, like they're just

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<v Speaker 4>always predicting recessions. And I remember, maybe like eighteen months ago,

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<v Speaker 4>Bloomberg had this like fabled article where they said, our

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<v Speaker 4>recession indicator is telling us that there's one hundred percent

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<v Speaker 4>chance of a recession, and then that recession didn't materialize.

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<v Speaker 4>And so sometimes people get fatigued at hearing these predictions

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<v Speaker 4>over and over and they're like, all right, come on,

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<v Speaker 4>when is it actually gonna happen or we actually gonna

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<v Speaker 4>experience this recession. It's certainly looking a lot more real

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<v Speaker 4>uh these days, and it's looking a lot more likely.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think that's largely that's not because the economy

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<v Speaker 4>was on the rock, so that there was even this uh,

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<v Speaker 4>there was something happening kind of uh that there was

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<v Speaker 4>that there was an underlying weakness or something in in

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<v Speaker 4>the marketplace. It's literally just economic policy from our elected

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<v Speaker 4>officials right now. And so what's happening with tariffs is

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<v Speaker 4>creating so much uncertainty, so much unnecessary uncertainty in the marketplace,

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<v Speaker 4>and for a lot of businesses that and it's and

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<v Speaker 4>it's also causing a lot of investors to pull back

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<v Speaker 4>and saying, I don't know, is this is this the

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<v Speaker 4>best place for me to be putting my money right now,

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<v Speaker 4>which just leads to a lot of uncertainty for consumers

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<v Speaker 4>too on the back end.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so, Joel, you know, we all hear session and

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<v Speaker 1>everybody goes, oh, no, a recession.

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<v Speaker 3>But what I mean practically, what does that mean for you?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? And mean so yeah, so that's a good question.

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, there's like the technical definition of a recession,

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<v Speaker 4>right right, so that's like two quarters of down growth,

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<v Speaker 4>and and like that is something that that's like, that's

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<v Speaker 4>the nerdy economist side of things, But what it typically

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<v Speaker 4>means we're talking about a recession and some people actually

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<v Speaker 4>I hear some people rooting for a recession. But the

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<v Speaker 4>truth is there's a lot of pain involved in a recession.

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<v Speaker 4>And some people are saying, well, a recession, maybe that'll

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<v Speaker 4>mean home price is going down. Maybe that'll mean lower

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<v Speaker 4>stock prices so I can get in on the action

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<v Speaker 4>at a discount rate. And that might be true, and

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<v Speaker 4>there might be some fringe benefits for some people, but

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<v Speaker 4>that's given hopefully that you keep your job right, that

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<v Speaker 4>income continues to abound for you in the midst of

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<v Speaker 4>tough economic times, which certainly isn't guaranteed. So you know,

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<v Speaker 4>we could see an uptick in in layoffs. Feels like

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<v Speaker 4>we're already kind of seeing the front end of that

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<v Speaker 4>a little bit. But the more uncertainty there is for businesses,

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<v Speaker 4>the less likely they are to hire people, the less

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<v Speaker 4>likely they are to hand out generous raises, and so

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<v Speaker 4>a recession really could be we don't know how long

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<v Speaker 4>a recession could last. We don't know how deep a

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<v Speaker 4>recession could be. And again, so much of that depends

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<v Speaker 4>on whether we pivot from some of the kind of

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<v Speaker 4>tariff insanity that we're headed towards, and if we can

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<v Speaker 4>kind of back down on some of that and maybe

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<v Speaker 4>use it as more of a negotiating tactic like it

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<v Speaker 4>was early on, instead of actually implementing these tariffs which

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<v Speaker 4>are going to harm consumers. It could mean higher prices.

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<v Speaker 4>Even if you keep your job and things are okay

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<v Speaker 4>in your world, well, it's just likely going to mean

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<v Speaker 4>higher prices for everyone too. So it's really hard to

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<v Speaker 4>say how this shakes out. But there's a lot of possibilities.

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<v Speaker 4>And for me, when I'm talking to people, I want

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<v Speaker 4>them to do two things. I want them to make

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<v Speaker 4>sure that they have cash on hand, like liquid cash

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<v Speaker 4>in a high heeled savings account is more crucial in

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<v Speaker 4>a time of economic turbulence and an uncertainty. And then

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<v Speaker 4>the other thing is as an investor, don't do anything different.

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<v Speaker 4>And it sounds weird to say that, I think people

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<v Speaker 4>are like, well, I don't know, man. We can see

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<v Speaker 4>the stock market drop another ten fifteen to twenty percent

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<v Speaker 4>if you are in the wealth building phase of your life,

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<v Speaker 4>in particular, if you have a decade plus to go

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<v Speaker 4>before you're tapping those funds, I still just don't want

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<v Speaker 4>people touching it. I want you to have a you know,

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<v Speaker 4>an investment policy kind of a strategy that doesn't say

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<v Speaker 4>I'm going to change on a whim based on who's

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<v Speaker 4>in the oval office. I want people to have the

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<v Speaker 4>same investing approach through thick and through thin.

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<v Speaker 3>Because when you're in the stock market, you're in for

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<v Speaker 3>the long run.

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<v Speaker 4>That's right, That's exactly right. And so yeah, the short run,

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<v Speaker 4>it's it's not been great. We're basically in correction territory here,

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<v Speaker 4>and that you know, ten percent draw down, but also

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<v Speaker 4>know that that's not abnormal in a given year. So

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<v Speaker 4>what we're seeing in some ways is a little abnormal

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<v Speaker 4>as far from a policy perspective. But what we're seeing

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<v Speaker 4>from a stock market drop, this happens most years. In fact,

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<v Speaker 4>that the stock market seeds to drop like this, I

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<v Speaker 4>think when it's combined so with the politics and emotion,

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<v Speaker 4>it just makes it.

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<v Speaker 2>Feel a lot worse.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, so don't panic.

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly, Yeah, where's panicking going to get.

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<v Speaker 3>You exactly, exactly.

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<v Speaker 1>This is where things are going to get you when

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<v Speaker 1>you listen to Joel lars Guard every weekend, He's going

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<v Speaker 1>to help get you in, get you your money house

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<v Speaker 1>in order. We'll say that. Lots of great advice, lots

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<v Speaker 1>of great tips. It's the host of how to Money

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<v Speaker 1>on KFI. You can hear it every Sunday from noon

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<v Speaker 1>to too right here on KFI. You can also follow

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<v Speaker 1>Joel at how to Money. Joel, Thank you, Joel.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Amy