Speaker 1: Let's say good morning now to the host of How
Speaker 1: to Money on KFI. It's our very own Joel Larsgard,
Speaker 1: who stood us up yesterday because he wanted to go
Speaker 1: to an awards show.
Speaker 2: I know, I'm sorry about that, Amy, That's okay.
Speaker 3: Was it fun you were at the the iHeart Podcast
Speaker 3: Awards show.
Speaker 4: That's right, it was so much fun. I didn't win,
Speaker 4: but I enjoyed being there. It was so much fun
Speaker 4: just to meet all the interesting podcasters doing cool stuff
Speaker 4: in the industry.
Speaker 3: All right, okay, so back to money.
Speaker 1: Everybody's getting very nervous because of the tariffs in the
Speaker 1: back and forth with all that, and that has people
Speaker 1: talking recession.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, for sure. In recession.
Speaker 4: There's like this like Goofield saying that economists have predicted
Speaker 4: nine out of the last five recessions, like they're just
Speaker 4: always predicting recessions. And I remember, maybe like eighteen months ago,
Speaker 4: Bloomberg had this like fabled article where they said, our
Speaker 4: recession indicator is telling us that there's one hundred percent
Speaker 4: chance of a recession, and then that recession didn't materialize.
Speaker 4: And so sometimes people get fatigued at hearing these predictions
Speaker 4: over and over and they're like, all right, come on,
Speaker 4: when is it actually gonna happen or we actually gonna
Speaker 4: experience this recession. It's certainly looking a lot more real
Speaker 4: uh these days, and it's looking a lot more likely.
Speaker 4: And I think that's largely that's not because the economy
Speaker 4: was on the rock, so that there was even this uh,
Speaker 4: there was something happening kind of uh that there was
Speaker 4: that there was an underlying weakness or something in in
Speaker 4: the marketplace. It's literally just economic policy from our elected
Speaker 4: officials right now. And so what's happening with tariffs is
Speaker 4: creating so much uncertainty, so much unnecessary uncertainty in the marketplace,
Speaker 4: and for a lot of businesses that and it's and
Speaker 4: it's also causing a lot of investors to pull back
Speaker 4: and saying, I don't know, is this is this the
Speaker 4: best place for me to be putting my money right now,
Speaker 4: which just leads to a lot of uncertainty for consumers
Speaker 4: too on the back end.
Speaker 1: Okay, so, Joel, you know, we all hear session and
Speaker 1: everybody goes, oh, no, a recession.
Speaker 3: But what I mean practically, what does that mean for you?
Speaker 2: Yeah? And mean so yeah, so that's a good question.
Speaker 4: I mean, there's like the technical definition of a recession,
Speaker 4: right right, so that's like two quarters of down growth,
Speaker 4: and and like that is something that that's like, that's
Speaker 4: the nerdy economist side of things, But what it typically
Speaker 4: means we're talking about a recession and some people actually
Speaker 4: I hear some people rooting for a recession. But the
Speaker 4: truth is there's a lot of pain involved in a recession.
Speaker 4: And some people are saying, well, a recession, maybe that'll
Speaker 4: mean home price is going down. Maybe that'll mean lower
Speaker 4: stock prices so I can get in on the action
Speaker 4: at a discount rate. And that might be true, and
Speaker 4: there might be some fringe benefits for some people, but
Speaker 4: that's given hopefully that you keep your job right, that
Speaker 4: income continues to abound for you in the midst of
Speaker 4: tough economic times, which certainly isn't guaranteed. So you know,
Speaker 4: we could see an uptick in in layoffs. Feels like
Speaker 4: we're already kind of seeing the front end of that
Speaker 4: a little bit. But the more uncertainty there is for businesses,
Speaker 4: the less likely they are to hire people, the less
Speaker 4: likely they are to hand out generous raises, and so
Speaker 4: a recession really could be we don't know how long
Speaker 4: a recession could last. We don't know how deep a
Speaker 4: recession could be. And again, so much of that depends
Speaker 4: on whether we pivot from some of the kind of
Speaker 4: tariff insanity that we're headed towards, and if we can
Speaker 4: kind of back down on some of that and maybe
Speaker 4: use it as more of a negotiating tactic like it
Speaker 4: was early on, instead of actually implementing these tariffs which
Speaker 4: are going to harm consumers. It could mean higher prices.
Speaker 4: Even if you keep your job and things are okay
Speaker 4: in your world, well, it's just likely going to mean
Speaker 4: higher prices for everyone too. So it's really hard to
Speaker 4: say how this shakes out. But there's a lot of possibilities.
Speaker 4: And for me, when I'm talking to people, I want
Speaker 4: them to do two things. I want them to make
Speaker 4: sure that they have cash on hand, like liquid cash
Speaker 4: in a high heeled savings account is more crucial in
Speaker 4: a time of economic turbulence and an uncertainty. And then
Speaker 4: the other thing is as an investor, don't do anything different.
Speaker 4: And it sounds weird to say that, I think people
Speaker 4: are like, well, I don't know, man. We can see
Speaker 4: the stock market drop another ten fifteen to twenty percent
Speaker 4: if you are in the wealth building phase of your life,
Speaker 4: in particular, if you have a decade plus to go
Speaker 4: before you're tapping those funds, I still just don't want
Speaker 4: people touching it. I want you to have a you know,
Speaker 4: an investment policy kind of a strategy that doesn't say
Speaker 4: I'm going to change on a whim based on who's
Speaker 4: in the oval office. I want people to have the
Speaker 4: same investing approach through thick and through thin.
Speaker 3: Because when you're in the stock market, you're in for
Speaker 3: the long run.
Speaker 4: That's right, That's exactly right. And so yeah, the short run,
Speaker 4: it's it's not been great. We're basically in correction territory here,
Speaker 4: and that you know, ten percent draw down, but also
Speaker 4: know that that's not abnormal in a given year. So
Speaker 4: what we're seeing in some ways is a little abnormal
Speaker 4: as far from a policy perspective. But what we're seeing
Speaker 4: from a stock market drop, this happens most years. In fact,
Speaker 4: that the stock market seeds to drop like this, I
Speaker 4: think when it's combined so with the politics and emotion,
Speaker 4: it just makes it.
Speaker 2: Feel a lot worse.
Speaker 3: Okay, so don't panic.
Speaker 2: Exactly, Yeah, where's panicking going to get.
Speaker 3: You exactly, exactly.
Speaker 1: This is where things are going to get you when
Speaker 1: you listen to Joel lars Guard every weekend, He's going
Speaker 1: to help get you in, get you your money house
Speaker 1: in order. We'll say that. Lots of great advice, lots
Speaker 1: of great tips. It's the host of how to Money
Speaker 1: on KFI. You can hear it every Sunday from noon
Speaker 1: to too right here on KFI. You can also follow
Speaker 1: Joel at how to Money. Joel, Thank you, Joel.
Speaker 2: Thanks Amy