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<v Speaker 1>With a round segle and from London and Gerard read

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<v Speaker 1>from Berlin. This is redefining energy today on ref Energy. Chiard,

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to Brazil.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I've been there a long while, so looking forward

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<v Speaker 2>to going there again.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, except we're not at COP thirty in Belem. But

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<v Speaker 1>we have a special guest who's there is in the

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<v Speaker 1>thick of the action, and that's Bruce Douglass. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>good to have Bruce on.

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<v Speaker 2>He's the CEO of the Global Renewables Alliance and he's

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<v Speaker 2>a great guy and a friend we've known for a

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<v Speaker 2>long while.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, and he's been named Time one hundred Climate Leader,

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<v Speaker 1>so it's really a voice. He's been advocating for tripling

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<v Speaker 1>on wabbels. But at the same time, we all know

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<v Speaker 1>how difficult that UN processes. We've seen last month the

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<v Speaker 1>UN Industional Might Team organization, you know, they had a

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<v Speaker 1>big plan to the carbonized and everything has been destroyed

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<v Speaker 1>by the US. So is there a future in any

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<v Speaker 1>UN process? And on your hand, can we do without

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<v Speaker 1>it even if it's toothless. So you know, this is

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<v Speaker 1>the questions ask ourself every year when couple arrives exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>So that's why it's really good to actually have a

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<v Speaker 1>live update from what's going on. Okay, let's go live

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<v Speaker 1>to Belem and we're live from bellm COP thirty and

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<v Speaker 1>we are with us our good old friend Bruce Douglass,

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<v Speaker 1>who is a CEO of the gr A. So what's

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<v Speaker 1>the g RA. What are you doing there?

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<v Speaker 2>Hello?

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<v Speaker 3>Great to teach you again as always. So the GRA

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<v Speaker 3>is the Global Renewables Alliance where the single voice for

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<v Speaker 3>the private sector renewables industry internationally. So we represent when

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<v Speaker 3>solo thermal hydrofile on the generation side, but also green

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<v Speaker 3>hydrogen batteries, long duration storage grids, so basically the whole

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<v Speaker 3>power system on the private sector side.

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<v Speaker 2>So tens of thousands of.

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<v Speaker 3>Companies who are all in on the energy transition.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't way copies organize you founders and well you've got

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<v Speaker 1>a green zone and a blue zone, so maybe probably

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<v Speaker 1>explain what is it and where you are right now?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, So the GRA we're always present at cop Climate

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<v Speaker 3>Change conference. Indeed there's like, well there's more than two zones.

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<v Speaker 3>There's multiple zones as negotiators of the parties, which is

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<v Speaker 3>the countries, and then they have an area called the

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<v Speaker 3>blue zone, which is restricted access for many for the

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<v Speaker 3>countries and observers, so we are treated an official observer,

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<v Speaker 3>and so the private sector companies, NGOs and civil society

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<v Speaker 3>have access there. But then also there's a green zone

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<v Speaker 3>which is then full public access which allows exhibitions and

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<v Speaker 3>a great format for interaction with the community and with

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<v Speaker 3>other actors in the Amazon. And located in Belen, which

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<v Speaker 3>is actually a huge city. It's a couple of million people.

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<v Speaker 3>And I've been walking around the last couple of days

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<v Speaker 3>before the event started and I'd say, you lot, it's

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<v Speaker 3>really exciting to be I do understand why they brought

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<v Speaker 3>it here.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, logistically it's a nightmare. I have to say.

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<v Speaker 3>It's thirty thirty five degrees and high humidity. The organization

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<v Speaker 3>is not great, but just being here in the Amazon,

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<v Speaker 3>you can see the impact that humans are having in

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<v Speaker 3>the urgent need to address climate change. You know, this

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<v Speaker 3>is where the impacts are felt and then will be

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<v Speaker 3>felt over the coming decades, more than anywhere else.

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<v Speaker 1>You were last year in Baku, So how would you

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<v Speaker 1>compare in terms of size, in terms of zeitgeist? What

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<v Speaker 1>do you see what you hear in terms.

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<v Speaker 3>A size About same as Baku's sim number people the

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<v Speaker 3>vibe this year.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a really important.

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<v Speaker 3>Cop this year because of the climate plans. So the

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<v Speaker 3>UN said a deadline of September for the country to

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<v Speaker 3>submit their climate plans. What we're seeing over the last

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<v Speaker 3>week or so is the heads of state we're here

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<v Speaker 3>at the end of last week announcing their climate plans,

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<v Speaker 3>and although being covered quite extensively that the plans are

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<v Speaker 3>not ambitious enough to meet at one point five degrees

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<v Speaker 3>or even the tripling goal of renewables, there's some good news,

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<v Speaker 3>and the good news is that Paris is working. So

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<v Speaker 3>countries are announcing their plans on climate, so they all

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<v Speaker 3>believe that climate is a thing. Those who are submitting

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<v Speaker 3>their plans there's one hundred and ninety four countries here,

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<v Speaker 3>so again the multilateralism is still a thing, and the

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<v Speaker 3>markets are moving. Seventy eight percent of the climate plans

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<v Speaker 3>we've seen include a reference to renewables. That's a huge

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<v Speaker 3>increase on previous statements from countries. Again, what we're hearing

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<v Speaker 3>from the leaders, so this is not us speaking, this

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<v Speaker 3>is the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guitarez, in his

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<v Speaker 3>speech on Friday, said that clean energy is winning on price,

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<v Speaker 3>performance and potential. Couldn't agree more. President Lula himself is

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<v Speaker 3>pushing for an agreement or a work program to end

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<v Speaker 3>dependence on fossil fuels. I think the translation of the

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<v Speaker 3>is something like get rid of fossil fuels. It's calling

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<v Speaker 3>at the cop of truth, the cop of implementation. Truth

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<v Speaker 3>is an interesting concept is you know, low scients and

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<v Speaker 3>facts don't seem to cut it anymore, But the focus

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<v Speaker 3>on truth theory is important. More important is to focus

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<v Speaker 3>on implementation. You know, we don't need any more negotiations,

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<v Speaker 3>we don't need any more targets.

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<v Speaker 2>We need action. We need Okay, how.

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<v Speaker 3>Can we deploy this technology as fast as possible to

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<v Speaker 3>phase out fossil fuels.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Brazila oil production is up thirty three percent pastena

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<v Speaker 1>or so. Yeah. Is there a bit of a double

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<v Speaker 1>language here.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, you know there's a polarization in Brazil for sure.

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<v Speaker 3>That domestic politics and the international positioning is quite different.

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<v Speaker 3>As you've seen a couple of weeks ago, they authorized

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<v Speaker 3>the license with exploration of new oil and gas in

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<v Speaker 3>the Amazon. We'll see if there is actually enough oil

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<v Speaker 3>and gas there. But at the same time, the government

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<v Speaker 3>is i say, pushing very strongly on renewables, grids and

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<v Speaker 3>the phase out of fossil fuels. The President of and

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<v Speaker 3>the President of Brazil are two different people, and so

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<v Speaker 3>that the polarization you see, it's important to have this

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<v Speaker 3>climate conference here in Brazil. They have over ninety percent

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<v Speaker 3>renewable penetration, so that grid is ninety percent renewables. They

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<v Speaker 3>have ninety nine point nine percent connectivity, so you know,

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<v Speaker 3>there's ninety nine percent of the population is connected to electricity.

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<v Speaker 3>So it's incredibly impressive development that Brazil has seen over

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<v Speaker 3>the past few years, and they're all in to continue that.

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<v Speaker 3>They're facing different challenges now, which is like almost too

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<v Speaker 3>much renewables in certain areas the northeast of Brazil. The

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<v Speaker 3>members that we have they're operating see curtailment at average

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<v Speaker 3>twenty five percent, some projects up to eighty percent.

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<v Speaker 2>So they're not in the money.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean very few people there, yeah ouch indeed, so

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<v Speaker 3>business models don work. Very few companies actually making money

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<v Speaker 3>on renewables in Brazil. So there's some reforms going on

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<v Speaker 3>there to adapt that. Of course, we need everything We've

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<v Speaker 3>always been saying law, you need anticipatory investments and grids

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<v Speaker 3>storage development and of course increased command off take so

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<v Speaker 3>industrial electrification, electrification in general build that demand for these

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<v Speaker 3>abundant streen electrons.

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<v Speaker 1>Between Barris and Belem, there was Glasgow, and in Glasgow

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much the old financial sector gathered in new acronyms,

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<v Speaker 1>chief funds, the net zero banking and everything seems to

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<v Speaker 1>have like vanished to steal see bankers around, or they've

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<v Speaker 1>become extremely shy.

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<v Speaker 2>You don't often see that many bankers in cop itself.

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<v Speaker 3>Last week I was in South Paolo at the Business

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<v Speaker 3>and Finance Forum with Bloomberg and others. There we met

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<v Speaker 3>a lot of bankers. I mean I won't name names,

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<v Speaker 3>but you know, we had a lot of discussions with them.

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<v Speaker 3>My take is it on where they can get returns.

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<v Speaker 3>They're all in, but you know better than me, Lah,

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<v Speaker 3>in the finance world, it's pretty brutal. They will capital

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<v Speaker 3>will flowed to where the returns are best. Fossil fuels

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<v Speaker 3>still have double digit returns. Renewables still struggle to get

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<v Speaker 3>single digit returns, So that capex conundrum, the irony of

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<v Speaker 3>the fact that renewables are cheap, So that's the l

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<v Speaker 3>theory of renewables is low wants to build them, but

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<v Speaker 3>high capex at the beginning and low margins. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>this is the challenge in our face. We need to

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<v Speaker 3>de risk renewables as fast as possible, so public money,

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<v Speaker 3>concession finance, and accelerate the build out of renewables in

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<v Speaker 3>those emerging markets, those places where interest rates are high.

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<v Speaker 1>Excuse me, that's for me, that's an old way of thinking.

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<v Speaker 1>If I look at the investment in clintech, so we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to put solar, wind batteries, evs and so on.

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<v Speaker 1>This is two trillion a year right now. And if

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<v Speaker 1>I look at the capex of oil and gas seven

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<v Speaker 1>hundred billion, and if I agree with the IA, eighty

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<v Speaker 1>percent of it is just to maintain the production. And

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<v Speaker 1>this is industree going from one hundred million barier level

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<v Speaker 1>oil the day to maybe one hundred and one. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this industry has really plateaued, whatever they say. Whereas we

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<v Speaker 1>as renewable, as we are growing batteries of forty percent

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<v Speaker 1>evs plus twenty five percent. So question is do we

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<v Speaker 1>really need a bit of a top down world bank

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<v Speaker 1>cup organization or is it just organice And we're kind

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<v Speaker 1>of spectators of what's going on what's your take.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I like those two options. I think there's more

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<v Speaker 3>options than that, but I definitely agree with him.

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<v Speaker 2>Is Michael Barnard.

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<v Speaker 3>You're a colleague and friend who said the energy system

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<v Speaker 3>doesn't obey our ideology, it obeys economics, and the economics

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<v Speaker 3>are clear, So we don't offer renewables. You don't need

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<v Speaker 3>this top down approach anymore. The market are working over

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<v Speaker 3>ninety percent of power additions last year with renewable energy,

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<v Speaker 3>and of those more than ninety percent of those projects

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<v Speaker 3>and now generating power cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives, saving

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<v Speaker 3>something like four hundred and ten billion dollars per year

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<v Speaker 3>in volatile fossil fuel imports. So it's done. This is

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<v Speaker 3>definitely a transition, it's not an addition. And the markets

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<v Speaker 3>are moving very fast. Renewable energy is growing at six

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<v Speaker 3>percent per year. Fossil fuel is still increasing importunate, but

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<v Speaker 3>only by like one one point two percent a year

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<v Speaker 3>and slowing down. So the trajectory is absolutely clear. This

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<v Speaker 3>is a revolution, electro and renewable revolution.

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<v Speaker 2>I just put an opinion.

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<v Speaker 3>Piece in the Financial Times with Kingsmill Bond for member,

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<v Speaker 3>saying exactly that at the end of the petro state

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<v Speaker 3>and the start of this electro tech revolution. So that's

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<v Speaker 3>what we're seeing. But what I will say is on

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<v Speaker 3>the other side you mentioned, do you need that into

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<v Speaker 3>government interventions? Absolutely in those technologies that are not seeing it,

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<v Speaker 3>So grids for example, difficult business models, large cappex, long

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<v Speaker 3>operation times thirty forty years. Who do need public money

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<v Speaker 3>there to do risk and incentivize build out of grids?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know. If you speak a lot about the

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<v Speaker 1>eight hundred pound gorilla the US, do you see any

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<v Speaker 1>US guys around or not? No?

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<v Speaker 3>And there's no senior US delegates here, so the negotiations

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<v Speaker 3>are going on without them. As you know, he's pulled

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<v Speaker 3>out of the Paris Agreement. I mean legally they're still

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<v Speaker 3>in the unf Triple C. So they could come, and

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<v Speaker 3>I don't anticipate they'll come. And they've seen what they

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<v Speaker 3>did with the plastics treaty, with the IMO, the International

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<v Speaker 3>Maritime Organization, So the interference there, and it's political interference,

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<v Speaker 3>it's not negotiational diplomacy, and so we anticipate they might

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<v Speaker 3>do something like that here.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's see.

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<v Speaker 3>Going back to my point, the positive is that one

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<v Speaker 3>hundred and ninety four other countries are all here and

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<v Speaker 3>mostly all in all the countries that.

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<v Speaker 2>We meet, and I don't know how.

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<v Speaker 3>Many ministerial meetings we've got lined up these weeks, but

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<v Speaker 3>dozens of countries. And this is emerging markets, not developed countries.

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<v Speaker 3>These emerging markets saying how do we do this? It's

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<v Speaker 3>not why, it's how do we do it? What should

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<v Speaker 3>we do? And a private sextor companies that I represent

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<v Speaker 3>are here en mass in force, saying let's get this done.

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<v Speaker 3>And just over the last twenty four hours, I've had

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<v Speaker 3>meetings with Ultipurse, with best US, with cip and many

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<v Speaker 3>others who are here representing the industry, speaking to the governments,

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<v Speaker 3>working together with investors to get it done.

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<v Speaker 2>So we do talk.

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<v Speaker 3>About the elephant in the room, of course, but for us,

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<v Speaker 3>it's a distraction, it's noise. US is six percent of

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<v Speaker 3>six to eight percent of renewables investment in the world.

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<v Speaker 3>There's a lot more excitingly going elsewhere. Growth markets are

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<v Speaker 3>elsewhere now, And the latest BNF numbers show that you

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<v Speaker 3>and your investments in the US are down thirty six

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<v Speaker 3>percent and they're up in Europe thirty six percent. So

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<v Speaker 3>capital moves as soon as it gets uncertainty somewhere it

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<v Speaker 3>they'll move very fast to somewhere else. The other interesting

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<v Speaker 3>fact for you laugh and this will annoy the US,

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<v Speaker 3>is the US anticipate to have a record growth this

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<v Speaker 3>year of renewables again and that will continue to twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty seven. Now that's pipeline projects. You know, record renewable

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<v Speaker 3>growth in the US out of twenty seven is not

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<v Speaker 3>something that maybe that administration would want. But that's economics.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the state level investment, corporate private sector investment, and

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<v Speaker 3>the financial institutions. Let's focus on the signal and not

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<v Speaker 3>the noise.

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<v Speaker 2>It's happening and happening fast.

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<v Speaker 1>Are there a lot of conversation around AI data centers

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<v Speaker 1>or not really?

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<v Speaker 3>Last week in South Pari it's focused an event with

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<v Speaker 3>the Ministry of Fine and so Minister hadad Here and

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<v Speaker 3>vis Abad that they're actually bringing out a new law

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<v Speaker 3>called the REDATA that they're proposing, which is about centivizing

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<v Speaker 3>and almost obliging new data centers to use renewable energy.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we're calling it no dirty AI.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you have to go down the AI route

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<v Speaker 3>to build data centers, then it should be clean we're

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<v Speaker 3>open about what clean means. But you know, obviously renewable

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<v Speaker 3>energy for us is the cheapest, fastest way. And the

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<v Speaker 3>data center hyperscalers that we talked to used to be

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<v Speaker 3>five years ago is you know, not used to be

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<v Speaker 3>give us affordable and clean power. Okay, then firm, then fast.

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<v Speaker 3>Now it's give us fast, firm, affordable, and then clean.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean no, I mean, come on, when you put ocgts,

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<v Speaker 1>when you put fuel cellers, when you put whatever rid

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<v Speaker 1>decent generators, it's not clean, and it's not even affordable.

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<v Speaker 2>No, it's not fast either.

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<v Speaker 3>So what what I was saying is the answer to

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<v Speaker 3>those questions is still renewable. I mean, renewal is the fastest,

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<v Speaker 3>cheap brist power for those off takers.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course one of the great point of excitement

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<v Speaker 1>around the UN negotiation is all that question about Article

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<v Speaker 1>six carbon market. Do we see any procasts there because

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<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of talk but not a lot of action.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, there's been a lot of talking that for a

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<v Speaker 3>long time, and the Article six was supposed to success coming.

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<v Speaker 2>Out of Top twenty nine last year.

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<v Speaker 3>I haven't heard much about it. It is on the

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<v Speaker 3>table again. It was discussed last week a bit in

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<v Speaker 3>TA power, but I've to say I haven't been keeping

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<v Speaker 3>track of that one.

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<v Speaker 1>I have a question for you, Saudi Arabia. How much

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<v Speaker 1>money do they put in climate efforts outside the region

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<v Speaker 1>versus how much money do they put in organizing boxing matches.

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<v Speaker 3>That's not a statistic I have at top of mind level,

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<v Speaker 3>but it's a great question. I mean, what I will

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<v Speaker 3>say is they invest a lot in energy transition in

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<v Speaker 3>their country. I mean, their target is sixty percent renewable

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<v Speaker 3>by twenty thirty, and although they're not quite on track

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<v Speaker 3>for it, they are developing renewables, wind and so scale.

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<v Speaker 3>They're doing it so that they can then export the

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<v Speaker 3>oil instead of burning oil for power generation. But listen,

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<v Speaker 3>that's my opered this morning, and you FC was basically

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<v Speaker 3>saying the end of the petro state. All countries, all markets,

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<v Speaker 3>even those with huge oil and gas deposits, are now

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<v Speaker 3>investing in renewable energy in electrotech, either for their own

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<v Speaker 3>domestic use, for the purposes for manufacturing and export.

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<v Speaker 2>China is a great example.

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<v Speaker 3>So you know, this shift is unstoppable and happening in

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<v Speaker 3>countries you'd never expect.

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<v Speaker 1>You're on a very POLITITIONI do you not reply to

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<v Speaker 1>my question?

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<v Speaker 3>I don't know the stats on the boxing matches in Saudi.

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<v Speaker 1>It's all times more, four times more in boxing than

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<v Speaker 1>in helping the climate negotiation. So we have the US

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<v Speaker 1>doing MMA at the IMO and the Saudi organizing boxing matches. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>of course Kopp loves acronym and alphabet soup. So I

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<v Speaker 1>heard that one of the great innovation was something called

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<v Speaker 1>the t F f F, which I probably would rename

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<v Speaker 1>the wt F f F. Is it for real or

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<v Speaker 1>just a few guys with a few bit of budget

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<v Speaker 1>trying to reinvent something.

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<v Speaker 3>The Brazilian government, when they successfully getting the cop wanted

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<v Speaker 3>three things they want. The forest Amazon is absolutely critical here.

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<v Speaker 3>You know, being in the Amazon you can see it,

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<v Speaker 3>and so.

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<v Speaker 2>Their focus is on that.

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<v Speaker 3>The t FFF is about that forests, and you know,

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<v Speaker 3>luders looking for billions to basically monetize valorize tropical rainforests

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<v Speaker 3>so that they survive.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think it's a great thing.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not our personal mission, but you know, they are

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<v Speaker 3>essential for the survival of the planet. The second thing

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<v Speaker 3>is sustainable fuels, which is a rebrand of biofuels. They've

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<v Speaker 3>got a four times pledge on that, again not our thing,

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<v Speaker 3>and the final pieces on the financing there will be

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<v Speaker 3>a cover decision out of COP. So that that's what

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<v Speaker 3>we anticipate, which is good cover text, which should summarize everything.

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<v Speaker 3>What we want to see in there is of course

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<v Speaker 3>the continuation the implementation of the tripling renewables. Do not

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<v Speaker 3>take the put off accelerator on that. That's the quickest, fastest,

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<v Speaker 3>cheapest way to decarbonize. And the second thing we're looking

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<v Speaker 3>for is the grids and storage. Really some action on

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<v Speaker 3>that to follow up with what's been discussed before.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Bruce, you're in the thick of it. So at

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<v Speaker 1>every coup there's the same question, cop off, flop, Amazon

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<v Speaker 1>or Iceberg? How do you see the result of that cup?

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<v Speaker 2>The cops are not the be all and end all

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<v Speaker 2>for us.

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<v Speaker 3>At a moment in time where a multilaterism comes together

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<v Speaker 3>and they countries have to talk about this, the peer

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<v Speaker 3>pressure it works. I genuinely think it works this particular cop.

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<v Speaker 3>Let's see if it is a flop. I think the

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<v Speaker 3>Brazilians are doing a good job trying to navigate and

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<v Speaker 3>steer this towards success. And again, as I's say, success

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<v Speaker 3>for us looks like continued action on renewables and most

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<v Speaker 3>importantly on grids and storage. You know, we're delivering jobs

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<v Speaker 3>and one stat for you before I leave the job

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<v Speaker 3>increase of renewables. We're adding eight thousand jobs a day

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<v Speaker 3>now and thirty So this is for the politicians that

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<v Speaker 3>say to us, what's in it for me? Are those

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<v Speaker 3>jobs inward investment, growth, security, independence, and affordable clean power.

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<v Speaker 3>You can't argue against that. I don't think it's a

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<v Speaker 3>bad word to be said about renewables anymore. We're winning

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<v Speaker 3>that argument with the policy makers. My concern is been

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<v Speaker 3>wider narrative. The disinformation out of this cop could well be, oh,

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<v Speaker 3>it's a flow, climbings are carn and renewables are scam.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not true. That's what I would think.

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<v Speaker 1>What you're saying is whatever the sign or they agree

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<v Speaker 1>on to phasing, phase out, phase down is irrelevant. We

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<v Speaker 1>are now reach a point of technological maturity and pure

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<v Speaker 1>economics that our side is winning, and the question is

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<v Speaker 1>how fast can we scale? And it's never decided that

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<v Speaker 1>cup is decided that government or oh, investor.

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<v Speaker 3>Level absolutely totally agree with you. The private sex of

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<v Speaker 3>investors and you know, let us do it. I wouldn't

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<v Speaker 3>say it completely unconstrained renewable growth, but let us do

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<v Speaker 3>what we need to do remove some of the barriers.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean the denial, delay, the distraction, and it's really

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<v Speaker 3>that that's the main issue right now.

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<v Speaker 1>Bruce, thank you so much for your action in relation

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<v Speaker 1>to promoting renovableles, and thank you for your report from

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<v Speaker 1>the Cup and we'll talk again next year.

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<v Speaker 3>Treasure Law and preachings from a very hot and sweaty Balain.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Thank you for listening to Redefining Energy.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't forget to rate the show and subscribe on Apple, Podcast, Spotify,

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<v Speaker 2>or the platform of your choice.