Speaker 1: All right, welcome in to Full Court Press. It is Thursday.
Sorry we were getting on the correct link, but we've
figured it out. Two man show for a little bit today,
but I have a special treat for you guys. So
BP will be back tomorrow. He's got a lot of
football content to do today, and he said, you know,
can I skip today. We've got a lot of football
stuff to do. I looked at the schedule and I said,
no problem. I'm gonna go to the bullpen. I'm gonna
call him my guy, Jordan Alexander, who is a Big
West guru. So he'll be on fifteen twenty minutes from
now to talk Big West basketball, Rob, which makes up
half of the slate today nine games, but the Big
West has decided to take center stage and play a
full slate of conference games tonight. So that's gonna be
great to talk about Jordan with. But before he gets here,
I gotta welcome you in. Auburn gets it done and
we hit the parlay last night, Rob, so coratulations to us.
Speaker 2: The pressure was immense at once. I'm watching that Auburd
game and the lead goes from eighty to sixty eight
to eighty to seventy three with a minute and a
half left. I'm like, don't tell me this is going
to happen to us again, But no, it didn't. The
parlay gods were with us. We cash probably puts us
in a very good position here on the plus side,
and you know, we were long overdue to have one
of those go our way.
Speaker 1: We absolutely were, And if you missed it earlier, the
parlay gods were with us. At the end of the
Seaton Hall Central Connecticut State game where Central Connecticut State
hit a three, like pretty much with no time left
to really to cover a game that they probably should
not have had to be in that position to cover.
I felt like it was the right bet, like if
you watched over the course of the game. So justice
was served, Rob We got the back door there. Auburn
held on BP State within in the number and yes,
you're right, four we are back in the plus plus
four point two two. I call them units, but it's
really like, if you were to play all these equally
the same dollar amount, for every one dollar, you would
be up four dollars and twenty two cents. And hey,
that's not that bad. We're a month in and we're
still plus in the parlays. So yeah, we're gonna try
to do it again today. By the end of the show,
we'll have another three team or myself, you, and then
we will have what I'm assuming will be a play
in the Big West from Jordan, but we're going to
start in Campa, Florida. And Rob, you know, I've thought
about this a couple of times. You said something on
this show a couple of weeks ago that I've kind
of thought about, well, that you were one hundred percent
right about, and I've thought about multiple times since when
we talked about Oklahoma State. We talked about Oklahoma State
ahead of their game with South Florida, and you said
something along the lines of, man, like this, they look
like professionals, like this looks like a pro team at times.
And the reason I bring that up here is that
very much played out that way when they played South Florida,
dropped one hundred and three points, kind of looked like
men versus boys at times. I was unfortunately on South
Florida plus the points in that game and it was
the wrong side. The reason I bring all of that
up here is South Florida hasn't covered a spread since
and I was pretty disappointed with the Bulls in their
mte over the weekend, really just on two occasions. I
only bet them once. I bet them against Colorado State.
Lost that one too, So I guess what I'm trying
to say here is I've been wrong about the Bulls.
Really underwhelming. Lost VCU, was never in it, totally run
out in the second half by Colorado State, barely beat
Western Kentucky. We're very fortunate to get to overtime and
win that game. I was once very high on this
Brian Hodgson Bulls team. Now I don't really know what
to do with them. So talk to me a little bit.
Utah State, South Florida. What do you make this team?
What do you make of this matchup?
Speaker 2: The matchup's pretty intriguing, Adam, And let me just start by.
You know, I'm going to credit my buddy Derek. I
know we all have certain sources that we can lean
on for individual teams. But my guy Derek, I've been
friendly with for like thirty years now, and he is
a Stillwater guy who pushed me toward Oklahoma State, and
he actually had to take back what he originally thought
about Steve Lutz and I think I read that lengthy
text here on air just to describe what he felt.
And Oklahoma State has been good ever since. But they're
not on the board today. It's it's South Florida that
we're talking about a couple of things here, Adam. First
of all, true home game right for South Florida, so
they've only had two against very meager opponents. What I
saw here what caught my eye. First, they have a
strength of schedule advantage and the home floor, so immediately
you might tilt your lean towards South Florida. However, there's
a cop game here with VCU, and when you go
through it, both were played on neutrals. Utah State gets
some in Frisco, Texas. They win the game eighty to
seventy seven over VCU shoot forty six percent from three
limited number of attempts thirteen attempts, but they shot forty
six percent. They committed eighteen turnovers, but they forced nineteen.
The reason why I bring up VCU is because Phil
Martelli's team is style wise comparable to Brian Hodgson's team.
They're gonna try and do the same thing. South Florida
plays VCU in Atlantis and gets whax seventy eight to
sixty six, only shoot two to fourteen from three fourteen percent,
only committed nine turnovers, but they only forced to eleven
all of a sudden, they couldn't force turnovers against a
better team. So right there, I see an edge four
Utah State, and then I'm gonna throw this in there.
We'll get a little technical here for half a second.
South Florida wants up and down, they want quick pace,
they want broken floor. I will say this about them.
The only three times this season where they've gone crazy
scoring points was against like teams. Against GW they scored
ninety five. GW is a fast paced team. Against Oklahoma State,
they score ninety five. Oklahoma State's a extreme tempo team.
Against WKU Western Kentucky ninety one points, extreme tempo team.
You take that away from them as an opponent, and
their numbers dip down. Now, even against VCU, who's a
quick team, they didn't get there. It only got the
sixty six points. So Utah State has that going for them.
And then to the technical part. Jared Calhoun is known
for this crazy two to three matchup zone, which you
can throw in there and muck things up a little
bit against a team like South Florida. It's kind of
a reason why I brought up their three point shooting
against VCU. They're not a good three point shooting team.
And there's a chain here that Utah State, which is
not a horrendous defensive rebounding team by any stretch, grab
some defensive rebounds, get out on offense, come back on defense,
and set up a zone and maybe throw South Florida
out of whack. I was a little surprised. I guess
I shouldn't be surprised because the first thing I said
here generally will tilt the scales where bets are concerned
South Florida at home, strength of schedule edge. Everybody will
point to that, But I think when you get down
to the basics the fundamentals of this game, Utah State's
the better team. Maybe they haven't been you know, maybe
their quality of opponent hasn't been as good, but they've
beaten everybody. They're seven to zero and the one team
that both teams have played so far, Utah State was
able to win on a neutral and the other side wasn't.
So for me, I like the Utah State side. They
score inside, they score outside, their veteran, Like I say,
they've got two flamethrowers that can shoot it from three
I don't know. I just think South Florida is maybe
more of a work in progress Utahs States, maybe more
of a finished product here. I don't know that the
road bothers UTAs State as much, and I certainly don't
know if South Florida has yet created an environment that
intimidates opponents coming in. So for me, it would probably
be UTA's state here. Adam total wise one sixty two
and a half. I guess, you know, first inclination is
to look over. But when I go through those results
of what South Florida has been able to do against
moderate tempo teams, I'm not so sure that they can
keep up with UTA State here. Yeah.
Speaker 1: You know, you talked about shot selection for a second,
and that's that's been I guess my sort of biggest
concern watching South Florida. Like you talk about Brian Hodgson
being a NATOATES disciple, like Naoates two point zero and
something Natoates has done. I mean, he'll go if you
take a bat, if you take the shot that he
doesn't want, like, he'll lose his night he's probably like
Bobby Knight locking kids in closets or something. You know,
he freaks out like he's got like if you play
for NATO's, it's got to be like they've got the
freedom to like get to the rim and shoot whenever
they want to shoot, but it has to be the
shot that he wants. It's got to be a three,
or it's got to be like something like pretty much
at the rim. And what I really noticed with South Florida,
especially in that MTE and the Bahamas, I felt like
a a lot of just like very difficult. They're just
not getting the open looks. Even the stuff at the
rim seems to be contested in a lot of cases.
And then you know that three point percentage. Listen, if
you're gonna play that style and you are going to
take a lot of threes, you got to make some
of them or that's not a great style to play.
And you alluded to it. Two hundred and seventy fourth
nationally in three point shooting is just not going to
cut it with this style of play. The big thing
for me, I mean, the thing that made me really
sort of kind of go back to the drawing board
on South Florida was that Colorado State game should have
been a layup, cupcake win for them, because if you
think of this was third game in three days for
Colorado State, as it was for South Florida, but the
way that South Florida plays, they should have had a
huge edge playing third game in three days against a
team that was a little bit worn down. What happened
in that game, rob was they lost the kid from
Marist that transa Pascarelli. There was two guys on the
perimeter that they just lost and just absolutely eviscerated them
from three. He was open every single time he touched
the ball. He made every single shot he took, and
suddenly they were just down twenty. It was like in
the blink of an eye, they didn't know what happened.
They were down twenty. Utah State can do that to teams.
That's actually I would almost say when Utah State is
at their best, that's what they are doing the teams
right like they It seems like every time I watch
Utah State play, they have a stretch where they hit
five threes in a row on like five straight possessions,
and the gate the two lane game comes to mind.
They played two lane in an MTE like maybe the
week before Feast week early game, and it was like
they struggled for twenty minutes and then they had seven
straight possessions where they scored on all seven possessions and
hit a three on every one, and suddenly it was
a fifteen point game, twenty three in the country. Three
point shooting. This Utah State team. That is my fear
here and ultimately why I don't think. I think I'm
gonna not be stubborn for a change. Like as bad
as I feel like pot committed to South Florida, having
played them a couple of times and lost with them,
I'm trying to be realistic and say to myself, you
know what, maybe I was just a little bit off
on this team. This might not be the best matchup
for them. So I see some of the chats saying, hey,
like you kind of feels like a bargain on Utah State.
My number suggests that a pick that might be the case.
You know that Utah States just a better team that
can attack South Florida, and Rob, you talked about a
home game. Now, one thing South Florida does have is
a great arena DJ, So give them a point on
the home court handicapped. They've got a great arena DJ
up on a perch. I love when the schools have
like an arena DJ hype guy that they like. You know,
some of the newer arenas actually set up a DJ
stand for them. They've got that down there in Tampa.
Who knows. Maybe the difference in the game. I don't
know if I'll get to the window with this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think a good point do you make, Adam
and And just to simplify it, is that the things
that South Florida, the things that Brian Hodgson wants them
to do well, they're just not doing well at this
point in time when the competition gets elevated. So a
little bit of a work in progress on that side.
Utah State generally doesn't flinch even in road games. And
it's interesting you brought up Colorado State too, because it's
another Mountain West that's you know, with with good coaching.
So we'll see. But the flamethrowers are there for Utah State. MJ.
Collins I think is like forty seven from three, so
they can hit them. All right.
Speaker 1: We're gonna move along to another one of the seven
PM seven pm tips. Doug, thank you for the donation,
very much appreciated. He says, thank you for the parla
w Thank you, Doug. We needed that one and we
got it done. Hopefully we get it done again today.
Doug wants to go over to the Horizon. He wants
to talk about He says, appreciate the in depth analysis
you bring every single day. Any insights on Robert Morris
at Green Bay, Well, Doug, I happen to have a
couple here and so we'll you know, I want to
talk about Doug Gottlieb for a second, because Doug Gottlieb
got a lot of heat for how year one went,
and rightfully so Rob. It was a sort of an
unmitigated disaster for Gottlieb in Green Bay in his first year.
I think that he bit off a little bit more
than he could chew, sort of like just being thrust
into the head coaching ranks, having to build a team
sort of from scratch and thinking, and then of course
the expectations, not even the expectations, but like the vast
majority of people wanting you to fail, because I think
there's a lot of folks that don't really care for Gottlieb.
I think that just turned into a very tough year
zero type scenario for him. But I think Gottlieb learned
a lot from year one. I think this particular Green
Bay team, I've said it a couple of times, is
better than last year's And like, listen, like players get
the benefit of the doubt in their first year, being
able to develop from year one to year two, sometimes
you got to give a coach that benefit of the doubt, right, Like,
I think he learned from his mistakes last year and
he's starting to fix them this year.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: On the other side of the coin, here, Robert Morris
goes to the NCAA tournament. They lose most of that
tournament team. Of course, Vulgaris was one of the best
players in this conference last year. He's now Iowa. But
you know who's a really really good coach. That's Andy Toole,
who I almost think like doesn't even really matter what
compliment of players he gets. Like last year's Robert Morris
team was not supposed to be an good and he
had them playing great ball. I kind of feel like
they were undervalued in the market as well this year
again for that reason. It's like He got that Robert
Morris team to play so good that they went to
the NCAA tournament hung with Alabama for forty minutes. So
why would he not be able to do the same
this year in a Horizon league that has no clear favorite,
very intriguing matchup. I gotta be honest. My number was
Morris minus one. It looks like it's minus one and
a half minus won some places open pick tough, tough
handicap for me here, talk to me about Robert Morris
Green Bay. Can you give any insight to Doug.
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 2: I think it depends what side of the fence you
want to stand on. Right do you consider the wins
against Frank Martin's UMass team and a good IONA team.
Do you think that's a sign of turning the corner
for UWGB. If you do, then you probably want to
be on them here against Robert Morris, both teams are
kind of similar at him in style of play. It's
not going to be an up and down game. It's
going to be a lower scoring game, defensive minded. I
think when you go through the numbers, the analytics, etc. Etc.
You'll come out with Robert Morris being the slightly better team.
Neither team is lighting it up as of now, but
I you know, to boil it down to its simplest form,
it really is a question of whether or not. And
you said you think Gottlieb has learned some things in
year two. All of a sudden, they've scored some points.
They really weren't scoring any points early on, but seventy
nine against UMass, eighty against Iona, and again the IONA
win is impressive. I mean, for where Wisconsin Green Bay
was and Robert Morris, I would not consider a better
team than IONA. You go to a nutrient, you beat Iona,
so it's I don't know. Again, I would say, if
you're going to play this game on an overall statistical basis,
the analytics basis, you're probably coming up with Robert Morris,
if you're projecting ahead and you're trying to beat the
curve here with UWGB. Because of their last couple results,
which again you know, for the way they were playing
a pretty presson and let's not sell them short, Adam,
because I'm only talking about their wins, right, but they
pushed Minnesota to ot We saw Minnesota beat Indiana last night.
They played Yale to six points, Yale's as good as
it gets in the IVY, and that's kind of like
four consecutive really really good performances out of this team.
I guess as I talk through this thing myself with
my notes here, I think I would probably lean that
way green Bay at home. It does look like something's
been found, and some of this has been done without
Marcus Hall, right, who might be their best player. I
don't know the status. I tried to look up the
status for tonight. I could not find it. Maybe we
can update folks watching here as we go on through
the show, But I do think Green Bay, you know,
when you're doing this without your best guy, that's a
pretty good sign right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, just for the sake of giving a
play here, I think I have to lean green Bay
because I don't think I don't think their priors are
as much of an accurate representation of what they are
this year as Robert Morris's, which I think it's like, yes,
Andy Toole is a great coach, but it is very
possible that he doesn't overachieve back to back years. I mean,
you look at a couple of you know, like Vulgarris
ended up being like a All Conference. I mean, he
ended up with one of the best players in the
league who's now at Iowa. There's no there's nothing that
says he catches a guy like that again this year
and sort of like way over achieves again. You know,
you talk about good results that didn't turn into wins
for green Bay. How about the Buffalo game. Green Bay
was right in that one too. Buffalo's hating up the Bulls.
I may have to I don't know if Mallory will
allow it, but if I can get out of the house,
I may go down to I may have to get
to Alumni Arena this weekend for Saint Bonaventure Buffalo, probably
the biggest home game they've had in four or five years,
on the heels of me being out very late after
the Syracuse game on Tuesday, and I don't know if
that's gonna happen, but if you can get there, that's
a good one on Saturday. The point is one more
point I'll make about home court here, and one thing
I love that Gottlee did. He moved all the home
games to campus. So Green Bay for a long time
played at the Resh Center, which is like their big
sort of downtown arena. Probably ten thousand seed Arena, and
Gottlee last year was like, we don't fill this place.
Maybe maybe down the road, like we'll be back to
the point where we can justify playing like a game here.
But he's like, right now, we're just we're rebuilding. There's
not enough fan interest. He's like, the one thing that
his players said last year, more games on campus, more
games at Cress Event Center, which is a small camp
facility they have, which is where this game will be tonight.
So I think that bumps green Bay's sort of home
court edge up as well. Now you're talking about I
think they're catching a point and a half here as well. Listen,
I think if this gets to two, I think green
Bay is a pretty reasonable bet at two. Don't know
if it'll make my card, but I could. I couldn't
really fault you for for taking green Bay at two.
Right here, Okay, I want to go to rob. I
don't know if you caught this, but the the Maac,
the Mac, my Mac, Sianna's Mac has hired a marketing
consultant to change the name of the conference. They finally
decided that after forty years they were sick of people saying.
Speaker 2: Mac or the other MAC or like.
Speaker 1: So they literally have hired they have hired someone to
come up with a rebrand of the conference. It only
took forty years. It's only been going on since the
late eighties, I think was the inception of the Metro
Atlantic Athletic Conference. And finally in twenty twenty five they said,
you know what, We're sick of being clowned every time
we get on sports on our top ten and one
of the anchors makes a joke about it, So we
are going to change the name of the league. As
of right now, it is still the MAC the MAAC
and we've got some conference play tonight up in I
think Merrimack is somewhere in the north shore of northern
part of Massachusetts. They're new to the league. That's the
one that's one of the only MAC venues I've yet
to get to in my lifetime because they just came
into the league last year and they've taken some money today,
not really surprising to me riders in a world of
just I believe the university is one hundred and thirty
million in debt right now. You know it's I'm wearing
the Saint Francis University ZIP upright here that I grabbed
when I was Actually this was a gift from them
one of the only places I've been they were really
nice to me. They actually gave this to me as
a gift. And the reason I bring them up is
they are in their final year of Division one, and
if you were to press me for the team that
might be next to have to drop out of D one,
it would probably be Rider because I believe they are
in significant debt as a university, and I got to
imagine that if they're losing money on athletics, that that
sports might be the next thing to go. They're kind
of a disaster. I think this might be the worst
team in the MAC this year. They have a couple
of good guards that can play, but outside of that,
they don't have much of Joe Gallo Merrimack very good coach.
He's gonna you know, he might not have the horses
he had last year, but that guy knows had a
game plan for a backcourt. So do you agree with
that move Merrimack up from seven and a half to
nine and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think you have to add him on a
couple of bass. I mean, you talked a little bit
about Riders in aptitude. Now, I don't think we can
hold against them. The blowout losses that they've suffered because
they took on really good competition. I don't know if
those are you know, probably paydays in one way, shape
or form to try and get some money. But getting
blown out by Auburn, getting blown out by Florida, et cetera,
et cetera, not that big of a deal. But or
excuse me, getting blown out by Houston and Texas. The
problem with them is they can't score. And Merrimack's a
pretty good defensive team by max standards, and so you
wonder how Riders going to score points. You go up
and down the results this year, they haven't really been
able to score. Beat straight up by Coppin State. That's
not good either. What you run into here with Merrimack
is they're not this high scoring team either. So it's
the dilemma in any type of team sport handicapping, when
you have good defense against poor offense and you want
to play the good defense, can they score enough to
get you the cover? Can and they create enough separation.
There's no real proof of that with Merrimack yet, but
there is proof of Rider having that we're gonna get
blown out potential because they've done it so often now,
I would think you have to play Merrimack here. They
just look like they're the team that's in better shape
at this point in time. Until we see a little
more scoring out of Rider, it really wouldn't matter where
the game is played. At a Gallo to your point,
I kind of like Gallo tell you the truth. I mean,
he took this team from Grasshoots, you know what I mean.
It's you walk in. Merrimack's a new program and they've
they've been honestly, they've been relevant in their league for
a couple of years now. So I can understand the
line move. It's not on my card because I just
don't you have to win by ten here. It's not
that they can't, And I think it's more more toward
Rider can lose by ten, you know what I mean,
You're playing a favorite because you know the underdog's k
of losing by this number. Merrimcks capable of shutting them down.
Maybe a Rider team total under in this particular case,
slow paced game, good defense, bad offense. That could be
a way to look at it as well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you want to talk about Ryder not being able
to score they have. They have a couple of guards
that are pretty talented individual players. Zion Cruz Flashburton are
both pretty good individual players. I think if you took
them off of this team and put them somewhere else
that they're probably pretty good. But they have not been
able to do it with no help this year, and
that's essentially what they've been asked to do. Cruz shooting
thirty three point three percent from the field, for In
thirty seven point five percent from the field. Both are
under thirty. You've got twenty seven point three percent and
twenty four point one percent respectively from three. That's not
very good. No one, no one else scores. And you
want to talk about some of the points per game,
sixty one point two that's three hundred and sixtieth nationally.
Field goal percentage thirty five percent. They get nothing, they
get nothing easy. There's no easy points for Rider, and
you know what, there's no easy points against Joe Gallo.
Usually to your point, like he is, he tends to
have defenses that are very tough to score on. Three
hundred and sixty fifth, that's dead last in the country.
Field goal percentage three hundred and sixty fifth from three
that's dead last in the country. Three hundred and sixty
fourth in assists. That's the I don't know who's worse,
someone's worse, but you know it's it's just to turnover
ratio three hundred and sixty second. They turn the ball
over fourteen to seven point seven point times a game.
That's one of the worst marks in the country. Now,
you could make the argument, well, those numbers are gonna
get a little bit better at some point because they
played Texas, Houston, Rutgers, and Virginia. Yeah, you're probably right
about that. Those will likely improve as we go through MacPlay.
Doesn't mean they're still not going to be the worst
in the MAC League. Even if they do improve on that,
they're probably still the worst team in this league. I
think if you had meror Mack at minus seven and
a half, you probably feel pretty good Right now. At nine,
I like it less, but you would not catch me
with a cent on rider here. Just I think they
might be like it might be the worst team they've
had in the history of this school, and like the
coach is like trying to take some of his own
money to pay people in the department, so he doesn't
lose Jay. It's a mess, like an absolute mess right
now for that school. And we see could see that
play out on the court this season, all right, Rob Jordan's.
Speaker 2: For those who are maybe interested, that team total on
Ryder is sixty two and a half. Sixty two and
a half. They've only gotten there a couple of times
this season. I know they've played really good competition in
certain instances, but it's a lot of points in a
game where the pace is going to be really really slow.
It's a conference opener, you know. Writer, a team total
under could be a way to look here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you want to talk about like that if
you think that's low, Like those are the types of
games that Merrimunt typically plays, like you want to you
want to look at like Merrimack this year, I mean
in competitive type games seventy two to sixty five against Maine,
sixty six sixty against Lesal, seventy seven to sixty five
against Penn, which is actually kind of low scoring on
for pen terms, right like they you know, so that's
like the type of games that they typically want to play.
Opening they you know, I believe they opened with say
South Dakota State seventy five sixty six, like they want
to play in the sixties. So you talk about like
if they can dictate tempo and Ryder can't score very well,
might be like first to sixty what you could see
a sixty three fifty one type game here, right and
and not come close to that team total. It's a
great point on that one, Rob. We will have Jordan
joining us in a couple of minutes. What I will
say is heading over to site, check out the specials
full full court package that we have up. I'll get
you all of the plays for your chosen handicap for
I think three days. We'll have the weekend package. It's
live right now. I believe that's Friday, Saturday, Sunday, So
does it help you for today? But that will be
up for the weekend and then you know, as always
great deals on the wager Talk site. I may play.
I will likely have football up throughout the day today.
Haven't played any college hoop yet, but there's a couple
I have my eye on this short slate, So one
more non Big West game to get to and then
we're gonna get Jordan Alexander in here to rattle off
the five Big West games that are on the slate tonight,
this one, I have very little interesting. All I'll say
about this one is I said at some point earlier
this season that I think the Citadel is going to
be one of the worst teams. If not, well, they'll
be the worst team in their conference. I went as
far as to say they're a bottom ten team in
college basketball this year, and I'm not going to retract
that statement. I know they have two wins, both non board,
but when you talk about like you can't even be
competitive with Presbyterian, like you know you're you're getting crushed
by Bellerman, You're giving up one hundred points to West Georgia.
Speaker 2: Not good.
Speaker 1: Gonna be a long season in my opinion for the Citadel.
They go on the road here rob to Davidson, big
number in my opinion that kind of came out on
the number, but Davidson played in that MT. I believe
they played Boston College. Utah State sort of a little
bit of a get right spot for them last time
out against North Carolina A and T. One thing Davidson
will do is make shots. And if they're making shots,
I don't know if I'd want to be against them here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and because the other team can't stop you from
making shots. Right, you just rattled up some hideous numbers
for Riyer, and you could do the same with the
defensive numbers posted by Citadels so far three hundred and
sixty five in the nation in defensive efficiency adjust a
defensive efficiency that's the worst in the country, guys, and
Davidson can shoot it a little to your point, Adam
Good from three, Good from two. They're the seventeenth best
percentage shooting team from beyond the arc. They're the fiftieth
best percentage shooting team from inside the arc. It's why
they're a twenty point favorite here. The problem with Davidson
is there's no real tempo to them. They're very methodical.
In fact, they're probably below methodical in their pace. And
to create twenty two points worth of separation when the
possessions are limited, it makes you think twice. Not that
they can't get there with a cover, but it does
make you think twice about whether or not they can
get to that type of separation here. You have to
be really good on the defensive end if you're Davidson,
in order to cover this number against Citadel, which you
not only don't they stop anybody from making shots at them,
but they don't necessarily make shots either. The one good
thing when you go up and down their analytics that
you can say about the Citadel is they don't necessarily
turn it over, so they're not going to cost themselves possessions,
especially in a slow game where it's played in the
half court. But you know, it's one thing to pass
it around five times and get a good shot. It's
another thing to pass it around five times and miss
the shot. Let the other team go out and make
a shot. So it's the dilemma you're up against here.
Davidson's clearly the better side in this game. Are they
twenty two points better? We always refer to the to
the number as being the great equalizer. I think the
folks who got in on under one forty three as
the opener were the smart people here. It's hard to
see Citadel getting beyond the sixty mark. And if Davidson
were to cut, you know, for Davidson to get to
eighty it maybe a little rough here too, but eighty
to sixty would have won that bet, would win that
bet for you. Now the number is down to one
thirty nine and a half, it no longer wins that
bet for you. There still may be wiggle room into
total going under, But as much as Davidson is better
than this side, and as much as the matchup fits
them hand in glove, it's hard to lay that type
of number with a team that's just not going to
create excess possessions. So I probably leave it alone and congratulate,
you know, the folks holding the closing line value right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely agree with the move toward the under
for you know, by us in the chat saying Citadel's
also three hundred and fifty fifth nationally, which is one
of the bottom ten mark possessions per game, so small pace,
lack of scoring and assuming it gets ugly, which is
what a twenty point spread would would suggest, zero extension
at the end of the game most likely, Yeah, it would.
I mean it would take probably take Davidson just going
totally crazy to put this one over. Now. They've done
it at points in time this year. But they were
also a team I kind of had circled for a
little bit of shooting regression which started to sort of
come in the MT. I got a little fortunate I
cashed with them against Boston College, but they didn't shoot
it particularly well. And then I want to say the
next night they couldn't hit anything against Utah State. So
I mean, if Davidson's a little bit off shooting the ball,
like even even after that move, you're probably golden on
the under right there, probably gonna hit that easily. As
far as the spread, my number here was twenty one
and a half, so not enough, not enough wiggle room
to get me to Davidson and just no shot. I'm
touching Citadel kind of a kind of a rider esque
team where I'd rather just pass.
Speaker 2: And sometimes, Adam, the way to talk about the way
to look at these games, and we don't talk about
it quite quite enough, but is to just cut the
game in half, shorten it and play Davidson first half.
But the odds maker is right there taking it away
from you, right, twelve and a half for the first half,
twenty and a half for the game, or twenty one
for the game. So could I see thirty seven twenty
four Davidson at halftime and Davidson cashing a ticket absolutely
that would also land you on under sixty six and
a half for the first half as far as total
is concerned. But they've definitely made you. You know, there's
not a lot of I like to use the phrase
wiggle room. There's not a lot of wiggle room in
lane twelve and a half in first half.
Speaker 1: All right, we should have Jordan up here in a second.
We'll start without him though, and he can jump in
what I will throw it to you, Rob, Do you
have anything to promote for today or for the upcoming weekend?
Speaker 2: Yeah, let me go ahead and promote here real quick.
And the NFL season has been tremendous to me amongst
the wager talk candycappers. I think I rank either second
or third right now on the season, so it's been
really good. We have a Thursday night football play tonight.
It'll be up and available this morning after we've conclude
this show here. And then as far as the look
ahead to Friday Saturday, the college football Championship game is
gonna have three to four plays there as well in
college football, so you want to be on the lookout
for that. However, this is a college hoop show, so
let me just promote the comeback last night, which was
a three and oh spotless board and the gods were
with me too, Adam. Last night, LSU team total over
seventy seven and a half. Not only did I need overtime,
but I needed and they made free throws. I mean
ls you walked up to the line and knocked them
all down to seventy eight for the cover there, so
that was good. We'll have College Hoop NBA as well.
Also just a shameless plug here for those who watched
wager Talk TV, A bunch of shows all day long.
We started off at ten am. But also you can
catch me with Ski Profit. We do an NBA show
and mixing some NFL when appropriate. Thursday Friday, I think
we do that, but it's one forty five Eastern time,
ten forty five ONUE Pacific. Coach. You can catch me
on profit picks with Ski Profits. So yeah, a lot
of stuff going on at wager tim as we overlap
seasons here.
Speaker 1: Sadly, I'm well aware of what happened in the LSU
Boston College game. I had Boston College plus seven and
a half, so that'll go into the pile of horrific
beats for the season. Maybe are arguably the worst. I'll
die on the Hill, Rob that I feel like I
should be paid for that, Like that should be a win.
There is no scenario where like if you have a
seven and a half point dog and that game goes
into overtime, that should not be a loss. I'm sorry,
Like that's crazy. Need to change that rule, I don't know,
I wish. Unfortunately Rob Manfred is not in charge of
like betting sports, because you know, we'd probably get the
rule change at this point. But yeah, that's that's craziness.
I still went two and two, so a split for me,
but ruined what would have been what should have been,
in my opinion, a winning game.
Speaker 2: You no real quick, adam. You know how in baseball
you can bet action or listed starter. I think to
your point, maybe there could be a bet addition to
the betting board where you bet regulation or full game,
and this way regulation if you have the dog, the
underdog can't go to overtime and die, you can cash
that ticket.
Speaker 1: Yeah right, like in a lot of cases, like I
may even take the slightly worse line, you know what
I mean, Like the it's just it's crazy. I don't
even know what I'm not going to like go off
on like a total rant about it. It's It's just crazy.
It is absolute craziness that my Boston College plus uh
plus seven and a half did not win. I'm sorry,
I need that that's rant over, but that's that cost me,
the that that turned three and one uh into two
and two for me. Uh. Jordan's actually logging in right now.
But I'll I'll kick we'll, we'll hit him on the
way back from this one, because I want to go
to you first for this one. Anyway, Rob, this is
a team I want to start Big West Thursday conversation
off with with you. See Santa Barbara.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: They are at home against Long Beach State. Here. They
are laying a healthy twelve and a half. That's up
from I think open at eleven and a half. And Rob,
this was a team that you were very, very excited
about coming into the season. Rightfully, So the roster is insane.
The talent on this team is ridiculous for this conference,
and they have not looked great so far this year.
And I've kind of gone back and I may be
being a little bit harsh here, but I'm almost getting
to the point where I'm willing to say that, like
Passernak might just not be a great coach. Because this
wouldn't be the first time that he has squandered some talent.
So uh but before we before we go to Rob
on this, I want to introduce our friend Jordan Alexander.
Can you Jordan, can you hear us right now? Are
you logged in? Okay?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Can you hear me?
Speaker 1: We can, Yeah, we can, we can hear you. Great,
Thank you so much for joining us. So let me
introduce Jordan. He is a he's out on the West coast.
Last week when I said, you know, there was a
guy that had me on to you see San Diego
way way ahead of the curve last year, that was Jordan.
And so the fact that we can bring him in
here to talk Big West two, which is which I
refer to as your conference, that's your league, is awesome.
So thanks for taking the time to jump on with us.
I'm gonna let Rob say his piece on a you
See Santa Barbara team that he really liked coming into
this season, and then we'll go to you, Jordan. That's
the game we're talking about, Long Beach State, you see
Santa Barbara, Big West Conference? Play Rob, what are we
looking at here?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: You know?
Speaker 2: And it's funny Adam because you see Santa Barbara I like,
but I didn't start the handicap with them. I start
the handicap with the negatives. I feel about Long Beach
State nowadays. It's just a different persona with this team
since they've changed head coaches. It's not the up and
down basketball that we're used to with Long Beach State
and try to outscore you. It's a totally different, totally
different style. I give them a little bit of credit
for the late rally against San Diego the other day,
because they really San Diego had that team wired, and
then at the end of the game, Long Beach State
came from nowhere to win that contest seventy six to
seventy two. But their list of results this season just
aren't good whatsoever out of Long Beach So, you know,
a lot of times it's hard to tell. And I
was watching the broadcasts last night. I forget which one
it was conference game. Maybe it was Indiana Minnesota because
Nico medbed came up with a win, right Nico medveed
and Minnesota had done nothing impressive all season long, and
then they go out at home in conference playing beat Indiana.
Some of these coaches and maybe Pastornick falls in this
category this season, are just using the seven eight games
prior six to eight games prior to get the team
around them in the shape for conference season. We'll find
out tonight, because I would think that they're certainly better
than what the points spread indicates over Long Beach State
here in this one, so I'll hold back and see
the result. But I think if I was going to
play UCSB, it would be totally and not totally, but
it would be mostly on a fade of Long Beach
because I don't see anything out of them that I
like in particular at this point in time. And as
you mentioned, the UCSB roster is loaded and just on paper,
you would think that if they come to play, they're
supposed to be the right side here. It's the way
I would look if I had to play it. I
haven't played as of yet. Still early morning here. We
may see some numbers move in this one. But for me, again,
I'll just repeat that I think it's more fade of
Long Beach State than it is a total cell job
on UCSB at this point in time, But they may
have been just working some kinks out heading into conference season.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jordan, go ahead, Long Beach State, Santa Barbara, You
and I kind of texted back and forth about Pasternak
maybe not maybe not being the best coach, and I
kind of went and looked at his Ken Pom coaching rating.
Seems to underachieve in that regard. So do you think
that's the them here?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, like I agree with Rob. Like coming
into the year, Uh, you know, UCSB, in my opinion,
was the most talented team in the Big West, top
bottom on paper. Right, But every single year, you see
Santa Barbara tends to have the best roster on paper
with Joe Pasternak always achieved, you know, except for a
couple of years.
Speaker 1: And this year he's got a lot of last year too.
Speaker 3: He has a lot of talented guards, a lot of veterors, right,
same thing with this year. They get it off to
a very slow start. They still don't play very much defense.
They really rely on teams just missing. Uh you know,
that's how it happened in the Seattle game. Seattle just
didn't shoot well. You know, they had a lot of
good looks, didn't shoot well. Then you see Santa Barbara,
they do shoot well. They're always gonna shoot well. That's
one thing you can count on what you see Santa Barbara.
They're gonna score points. The one thing with with Long
Beach State here, you know Chris Acker, you know he
comes under Brian Dutcher. He likes to play slow, defensive basketball.
He obviously doesn't really have the talent that San Diego
State has where he'll never have it at Long Beach State.
One thing Dan Monson did really well at Long Beach
State is he really recruited Southern California kids that really
under the radar, and there's a lot of basketball players
out there that he could that he needs to tap
into in my opinion, but you know, Long Beach State,
they're gonn try and slow the game. They're gonna my possessions.
I think twelve and a half's a lot of points
for a team that doesn't play defense in my opinion.
But this is a player for me because I agree
with Rob like I do think I could see a
scenario where Long Oh sorry, I don't know if I
can test, but I do see a scenario where you
see barbage out of water because Long Beach can't score,
they can't score very well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean so my numbers probably off based on
like how I was like pretty far in one direction
on Santa Barbara coming into the season. I probly that's
probably one I really need to assess a little bit
more because my brain is telling me, bet Long Beach
State at the peak of whatever this number might be,
like see if the market will move it a little bit,
and then play back at the market because my number
is pretty out of whack. I think I made Santa
Barbara something like fifteen and a half or you know,
something like fifteen and a half I think, And I said, well,
that's that's too much biased from like what I expected
them to be coming into this season. What they are,
what my eyeballs have showed me has said that that's
not the case. And so but oftentimes, like the market
may bet it in that direction. We've already seen it
go up from eleven and a half to twelve and
a half. You know, if this got to like thirteen
thirteen and a half, I may have to consider Long
Beach State, what I will say, And I'm going to
go to thank so let's think Garth here for the donation,
much appreciated. I do feel like one of these two
games is probably a blowout whether it's Santa Barbara or Irvine,
it feels like one of those these two teams is
going to smash their opponent tonight. I don't It's not
a not a great handicap, but like, just both of
these teams have underachieved. I guess the reason I say that,
and I'll go to Jordan first here and then we'll
bring Robin is this is another one where my number
suggests that Irvine minus eleven and a half at the
Open was a little bit light. This one's now up
to twelve and a half. Guarth specifically wants to know
about the Riverside team total over, but just general thoughts
on this one. Irvine Riverside is Irvine a team Jordan
that you think is going to get right in like
a big way at some point, you.
Speaker 3: Know, texting back and forth, and you know, I expected
Irvine to get off kind of to a slow start,
considering they lost like their top four players from last year. However,
Russell Turner is the best coach in this conference, you know,
so he's gonna get it right at some point, and
got the DS right already. Like they're an incredible defensive team.
They're like one of the top fifty defensive teams in
the country already.
Speaker 1: Now it's just about getting scoring, right.
Speaker 3: You obviously lose your top three scores from last year,
so how are you going to get productive points? You know,
we were talking yesterday. I was like, you know, they're
really gonna have to up games and they're gonna they're
gonna play ugly basketball. But they are figuring out.
Speaker 1: Darren Saran is.
Speaker 3: Their best player. He's their best offensive option. Think in
the first couple of games that were really trying to
run their offense through what's his name, Jerry and Dixon
Dreen Dixon is an incredibly athletic player. He just doesn't
really have a good outside shot. He has to be said,
and he's good going downhill, so he's good at opening
things up offensively for kick and shoot. Right. They don't
really have a lot of shooters, which is a problem.
But they need to get out in transition, man. They
need to force turnovers, get out in transition and kill
on the offensive glass. And that's what they that's what
they've been doing lately, and that's how they need to
win onto games. They got two really good bigs and
Troll and Evans. Evans is just a monster protecting the rim.
I mean, Riverside's not gonna get many bucks around the
run night. They're really gonna have to shoot it over
the top, and they don't really have a lot of
good players to do that. You know, I think Irvine
smokes him the night. Dude, I wouldn't be I wouldn't
be shocked if this is a thirty point win for
Irvine to night. I actually I love Irvine tonight. And
you're buying low on Irvine too, because that when you
know they have the opinion where oh, well they looked bad.
They look terrible, you know.
Speaker 1: So Jordan will before we go to Rob, I want
to tell you. So we'll let Rob say, you know,
say what he wants to say on this game, but
I will tell you that part of the show. We
do lock in a three team parlay for the show,
and so we will be asking you for a leg
of the parlay. So you can wait till the end.
But if you want it to be Irvine, you just
have to let us know if that's like, if that's
your best bet, you just let us know.
Speaker 3: You could lock me in for Irvine right now.
Speaker 1: I agree with that, and we're going to go to
Rob and see if he if he can curse.
Speaker 2: Yeah. The first thing I'll say where Garth is concerned
is I see that team total at sixty six and
a half, not sixty three and a half. Makes a
world of difference. Again, to Jordan's point, you know death taxes,
and you see Irvine defense right, and you see Irvine
big men. It seems like every year there's somebody standing
at the rim protecting the rim for that team, and
it's generally always a question of can they score enough
to cover monster numbers. I don't see this year as
being any different. Although the shooting numbers are ridiculously low
so far this season, you would have to expect some
positive progression rather than saying regression. I always feel like
regression is a negative phrase. But I would think that
they do progress upward where field goal percentages are concerned
as they get into Big West place. So they're the
better team for Riverside. It's a slower type game. And
again when you get into these defensive minded, slower type games,
limiting possessions, We've talked about two or three of them
already today. It's just hard. You have to shoot a
really good percentage against a really good defensive team to
get to sixty seven in this instance, and I don't
know that they can sixty three and a half, would it?
You know, in basketball that does make a difference. You're
talking about the difference between a a three pointer or
not a three pointer. So I would think they stay
under sixty six points here the money is betted that way.
From sixty seven down to sixty six doesn't necessarily mean
it's a win. But I have a hard time seeing
Riverside climb that ladder tonight in you know, conference play
where you would expect the intensity, the focus level and
all of that to pick.
Speaker 1: Up a little bit. Yeah, I mean, you know, one
thing I'll say about kind of having watched rivers you
see Irvine this year is like they definitely seem like
they lack that player that bails them out on the
offensive end like they've had the last couple of years.
Maybe it'll be, you know they I mean, there are
guys that it could could potentially be, but they like
Siam might be that guy at some point, but like
they don't know what was it Luchin Last year it
was just like any time they needed something, it was like,
you know, he's got you like, you know, shot clocks
at one. We are desperate for three. He's nine feet tall. Yeah,
no problem. Oh they fouled him. He goes to the line,
he hits both. That was Irvine, especially every time I
faded them last year. This year they don't really have that.
But in this matchup, they should abuse Riverside on the glass.
They should get every rebound in this game. Riverside's gonna
have a tough time getting shots off. It could get ugly,
and I think, I think, well, for our sake, I
hope it does, since we've got Jordan's like in the
parlay being Irvine, I very much agree with. This was
one where I had this was a number. Yeah, I
had this one. Sixteenth is what I made the number
in this one, And I think I might lean toward that,
maybe more than Santa Barbara, where I feel like, okay,
like maybe there's something to being that far off market
because I'm still more of I think, a believer in
this team because of Russ Turner than I am Santa
Barbara at this point. So I think that's a good
call of Jordan to me the feature I mean the
feature game of the Big West, without question, you're staying
up late tonight if you're on the East coast like
Rob and I that that's out in Hawaii, Honolulu. You see, Davis,
Hawaii should be a great game, Jordan, I'll let you start.
You know, you put me onto U see San Diego
very very early on last year. I know this year,
coming into the season, before the season even started, you said,
don't be surprised if Hawaii wins this league this year.
And I kind of was like, well, Irvine's really good,
Santa Barbara's got all these good players. Can't forget about
San Diego. That was kind of a crazy take to me.
But now that I continue to watch these teams, see
some of the flaws from some of the other teams,
Hawaii is starting to look like maybe they're not the
worst choice. Talk to me about you see Davis out
on the island tonight playing the boats.
Speaker 3: Yes, you know, UC Davis has really surprised me earlier
this year too, like they've looked pretty good. But you know,
Aroan Gno. You know, we were talking last night. I
was like, you know, the Big West has a lot
of good coaches, man, like, they really do. And I'm
gonna know one of them. You know, last year was
a down year. I don't think he hit the right
I think he kind of constructed his team kind of weird,
Like he really constructed towards defense, defense, and not enough
towards offense. He went hit the portal and he got
a lot of offensive players. Obviously, losing the kid from
Evansville for the year like really hurts him because he
was supposed to be their point But they do have
Hunking Clayter. And the one thing about Hunting Clayter is
like the true natural point guard, Like he's not going
to score the ball, He's gonna look the pass first.
Speaker 1: He is young.
Speaker 3: He did basically go handedly lose them the Arizona State game.
They should have won that game. They were the better
team on the floor that night. But uh yeah, and
this is a good Hawaii team did They got a
lot of good talent this year. Isaac john the Utah
State transfer, having an incredible season. I don't know how
Utah State let that kid walk man. Imagine toss State
this year with him on that team, I would be
they would be really good. And then obviously Nimishka, he's
a hell of the trains three. He's been at Hawaii
for a couple of years from Ulania. Incredible player. But
on the flip side, like you see, Davis has been
very surprising. Les Miles is obviously a really good coach.
Or Jim Less, I'm sorry, is obviously a really good
coach in his own right. They lost one of their
best players in program history this year and they still
haven't missed a beat. You know, Noll's Cooper look really good,
Nico Rochek looks really good.
Speaker 2: Sabella.
Speaker 3: This team, though, you see Davis, They're gonna have to
win games pounding the glass at them, and they're gonna
have to win games on the defensive end. They don't
have a ton of scoring power, they don't have a
ton of athleticism, but you know, less teams always find
ways to win. And here they are five and two
going to Hawaii, and Hawaii hasn't really been tested outside
of that Arizona State game, so this one could be
a battle. I lean Hawaii in this game. I make
the number more around ten ten and a half, so
I would lean Hawaii here in this spot.
Speaker 2: But this could be a battle.
Speaker 3: Man, it's really good night.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll hop in real quick. Adam and then I'll
give you the parlay leg here. Just it surprised me
how the total skyrocketed upward. I know er Er Eric
Gano and Hawaii are playing at a quicker pace this year,
but the defensive numbers seem to be what stands out
on both sides here. Not necessarily the shooting, not necessarily
the ball handing. You go through analytics and you find
it both teams turn it over quite a bit, don't
shoot it really well from beyond the arc. But they
both played pretty good defense, especially Hawaii's defensive numbers are
really good. And you play Oregon to one point, and
like Jordan said, you play Arizona State the way you
played them, those are good losses, if there is such
a thing, those are really good losses heading at the
Big West play. So I thought under might have been
a better look. But obviously the market thinks this game
is going to go up and over, pushing it all
the way to forty six and a half. And maybe
it's time for pushback on that total, and uh, look
toward the under real quick here, because I know we're
pushing our limit here. I'm just going to go back
to the beginning of the broadcast and use Utah State
as the parlay leg for me. We laid it out
pretty well. We took about ten minutes on that game.
But I think they do all the little things and
they just never get rattled. Guys, they just never get
rattled at the venue. I know the DJ at South
Florida that you mentioned at them, maybe they play some
music that you know, the Aggies don't like so much.
But they're just so good in so many facets.
Speaker 1: And the comp game for VCU with VCU is the.
Speaker 2: One that really pushes it over the edge. Utah State
has faced this in Martelli's style defense. They you know
Hodgson and the NATO's disciple as we discussed, and they
did well against it, shot it well from three, beat
that team out right. South Florida didn't handle it as
well both games run and neutral. I like Utah State
min it's going to happen real quick. We've made a
little point about talking about line moves the other day.
This game pushed all the way to three early and
now was come back to one and a half where
it originated. And so you got one group on one
side take back on the other. I think we're getting
the best of the number Utah State minus one and
a half.
Speaker 1: I like, I said, I think where I'm at now
after ye on USF after the last few games they've played,
I would agree with that. I'll go back to the
game that we were talking about real quick. I know
we've got to wrap up in like five minutes or so,
but I'll go back to the game we were talking
about real quick, you know, Jordan, I like, I know,
you're getting forced to pay attax to back Hawaii on
the island.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: It's been going on since the beginning of time. Whenever
they're good, you're gonna have to, you know, pay a
little bit of a tax to back them at home.
So my number here was, like you see, Davis plus seven.
I was very very close to punching in the nine
and a half. In my head, I said, Man, I
really would prefer ten and a half or eleven. I
think eleven in my head was kind of like the
point that I would probably bought in. It doesn't surprise
me that you see Davis has taking money. But like
I got you know, I've I got burned over the
weekend thinking I could just take the big number against
Hawaii with North Dakota that Hawaii ran them out wasn't
even close. You know, I've had some success fading Hawaii
at home. I played in Arizona State that was a win.
Played Utah Tech that was a win. But like, the
more I sort of watch this Hawaii team play, the
more I am a believer in like what they're doing
this year. So even though I kind of wish I
had a bet in pocket at nine and a half,
right now, I'm not like devastated I missed this. If
Hawaii takes money and pushes this back to ten ten
and a half, you may see me coming on U
see Davis. If not, I'm sort of comfortable, like you know,
kind of leaving it alone and just thinking that, hey,
you may have a good bet with UC Davis. From
a numbers standpoint, it doesn't mean Hawaii doesn't go out
and just win the game by double digits.
Speaker 3: The one thing that worries me from taking UC Davis
is that, you know I was talking about it with
you last night, is like the one thing that offset
to bat three point shooting team is negative free throw line,
and Hawaii does that exceptionally well this year. Like they
got a tony to just get to the free throw
line and they knock them down, so like Hawaii could
easily shoot like thirty five to forty three free throws
in this game, you know what I mean? And that's
you know, that's devastating.
Speaker 2: Yep.
Speaker 1: Yeah, they I think one of their players had like
thirty in a row or something. Yeah, that's a great point.
They very very competent free throw shooting team.
Speaker 2: Let's do this.
Speaker 1: So there's only two games that we haven't talked about
on this show. We've only got a couple of minutes left,
so quick hitters. If you have anything you're you're welcome
to pass. We got Bakersfield north Ridge, cal Poly Fullerton.
I'll go to Jordan first. Anything sticking out about either
of those two games to you.
Speaker 2: Man, the line on cal Pauly is is strange.
Speaker 3: I know Fullerton's playing a little better this year, but man,
the fighting Mike George is a cal Pauly. They played
an incredible style of basketball and I'm just wondering how
fully is gonna start enough points to keep this within
a possession and it's it's one and a half, which
is which is really strange. So that right there is
a I would probably stay away from that uh season.
Speaker 1: High scoring team.
Speaker 2: Bakersfield.
Speaker 3: Obviously they lost a ton, lost two coaches. There's a lot,
there's a it's a mess over there. There's a lot
on how they're still four and four. I'm kind of
staying away from Bakersfield here though, because I just, especially
early on, I really don't know what we're gonna get,
what kind of team this is gonna be, So I'm
leaning Seasun there too. It's a tough night, man, It's
a tough night in the Big West opening conference play,
especially because a lot of these they beat up on
good competition or they didn't really play a ton of competitions.
So to find out a lot in conference play for
the Big West here in the first couple of weeks,
I think.
Speaker 1: Rob, what about you anything just quick hitter on those
two games, if you've got anything that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, real quick. If I had my choice, Adam, I
would probably play the north Ridge team total over seventy
nine and a half. I know they haven't shot well,
but the pace is gonna be insane. It's what they
do and if you get enough opportunities in this game,
you probably get to up and over seventy nine and
a half with them Bakersfield. It seems like, I don't know,
I want to measure their travel miles. It just seems
to me like they've been all over the globe to
start the season in what they were calling like the
Rod Barnes Victory Lap or whatever when they went down
the Mississippi and whatnot. But I would lean there. And
just to further Jordan's point real quick about Hawaii and
maybe getting to the free throw line excessively tonight where
point distribution is concerned, their free throws, they rank thirteenth
in the nation. They get the thirteenth most points out
of free throws of any team in the nation. So
point well taken there with Hawaii possibly getting to the
free throw line and scoring easily from that charity stripe tonight.
Speaker 1: Yeah, by you, that's in the chat. That's our Keith
landrewhis a Keith. He says north Ridge Merrimack money line
parlay pays minus one fifteen. That's not a I wouldn't
hate that. Like I definitely i'ven't been higher than the
market on north Ridge all year. Didn't really want to
lay four and a half or five, But like, certainly
the way I would probably look there Fullerton. Cal Polly
is like Jordan said, that's a that's an odd game.
My brain says cal Poly. But the market is like, oh,
like it's telling me that, like maybe there's something I
don't know about that game, and there's money coming in
on Fullerton. So that's when I'll have to do a
little bit more digging on for my parlay. Like I'm
gonna go back to one of the games we talked
about earlier. I'll throw a Green Bay pick into the parlay.
I just think that game being on campus. I don't
know that the market is caught up to then yet.
This year Robert fighting Doug gott Leaves. I've I before
you were on the show, Jordan, I kind of defended
him a little bit, said, you know, I think he
learned a little bit from year one to year two,
and I'm willing to get him to give him the
benefit of doubt at home here he moved games back
to Cress and I think that it was a good
move for them. So we've reached the end of the show.
Huge thank you for Jordan. To Jordan for coming on
giving us a little this time and his big West expertise,
his leg of the Parley, and his best bet is
going to be cal Irvine minus twelve and a half.
And then we've got two early ones, so hopefully Rob
and I can take care of business early so we
can get to Jordan's leg and cash this parlay. If not,
I would probably you could just bet the Irvine game straight.
Rob's gonna go with Utah State minus one and a half.
I'm gonna take Green Bay pick, which actually might be
minus won some places now, but we'll call it green
Bay pick. Jordan's on UC Irvine minus twelve and a half.
That is your three teamer for today. Hopefully we can
hit him back to back days, and again, thank you
to Jordan, Thank you to Rob. As always, we hope
you guys cash all your tickets and we will be
back in the morning for more full court press. See
you guys then,