1
00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:02,120
Speaker 1: And we are live.

2
00:00:03,439 --> 00:00:05,360
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.

3
00:00:05,400 --> 00:00:08,199
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.

4
00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:09,960
It is five dollars Tuesday.

5
00:00:09,960 --> 00:00:13,599
Speaker 3: We are breaking down NFL Thursday Night football. We're gonna

6
00:00:13,599 --> 00:00:14,839
break down some college football.

7
00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:15,480
Speaker 2: MLB.

8
00:00:16,359 --> 00:00:18,440
Speaker 3: Ralph Michaels is gonna join us and give us some

9
00:00:18,600 --> 00:00:21,120
charts for NFL Week one. Paid attention to that. That

10
00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:23,039
should help us out with some of our bets. Steamail

11
00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:25,559
is gonna join us. We gotta talk Cowboys and Eagles,

12
00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:28,679
and we're gonna talk a little bit of Yankees and Astros.

13
00:00:29,519 --> 00:00:32,799
Let's do a quick little steam report. Johnny is recording

14
00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:35,240
for a contender series and I will do Contender Series

15
00:00:35,280 --> 00:00:38,240
at the end of the show, so stay tuned for that.

16
00:00:38,359 --> 00:00:42,520
Let's do this quick little steam report. I'm looking at

17
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:45,240
college football, not a ton that looks like believe it

18
00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:48,280
or not, the line has moved against Penn State. They

19
00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:50,600
were minus forty two now they're forty.

20
00:00:50,399 --> 00:00:50,880
Speaker 2: One and a half.

21
00:00:50,960 --> 00:00:55,119
Speaker 3: So if you're itching to bet on Florida International, you

22
00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:57,759
can do that now NC State, that line has moved

23
00:00:57,759 --> 00:00:59,799
off the key number of three. That's how two and

24
00:00:59,799 --> 00:01:02,679
a half half on NC State a couple of other

25
00:01:02,759 --> 00:01:05,840
line moves Syracuse and Connecticut. This is a big line move.

26
00:01:05,879 --> 00:01:08,480
This opened to eight and a half Syracuse as a favorite.

27
00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:10,560
This has been bent down to six and a half,

28
00:01:10,680 --> 00:01:14,079
so you're now getting through that key number of seven.

29
00:01:14,599 --> 00:01:17,439
Money has come in on Indiana, no surprise there, over

30
00:01:17,719 --> 00:01:22,560
Kennesaw State, who looked absolutely terrible. And money is coming

31
00:01:22,599 --> 00:01:25,239
in on Clemson big over Troy. They're already up to

32
00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:27,359
thirty four and a half. So if you want to

33
00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,079
lay the wood with Clemson, you're gonna have to do

34
00:01:29,120 --> 00:01:32,519
that pretty soon before that gets to thirty five. Other

35
00:01:32,519 --> 00:01:34,719
than that, nothing too much I see. Arkansas is taking

36
00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,879
a little bit of money. They've crossed through twenty one.

37
00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,879
There now twenty three and a half. And due to

38
00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,159
popular demand, let's take a look at baseball.

39
00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:43,840
Speaker 2: I am not.

40
00:01:44,200 --> 00:01:49,959
Speaker 3: Seeing much big line movement in baseball. Pittsburgh is taking

41
00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:54,519
some money against the Dodgers. Nothing too huge on that one.

42
00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,200
San Francisco is taking some money against Colorado, no surprise there.

43
00:01:59,319 --> 00:02:01,920
We'll talk about the Giants here in a bit. Boston

44
00:02:01,959 --> 00:02:03,640
has taken a little bit of money against Cleveland, but

45
00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:05,920
that thing's already up to like minus two seventy five

46
00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:08,919
at one of the books, and the line has flipped

47
00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:11,280
in Tampa Bay Seattle, Tampa Bay open is a favorite.

48
00:02:11,520 --> 00:02:14,159
Looks like Seattle is now the favorite minus one fifteen

49
00:02:14,199 --> 00:02:17,319
pretty close there. Other than that, not too much of.

50
00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:19,439
Speaker 2: Anything really really noteworthy.

51
00:02:19,599 --> 00:02:22,080
Speaker 3: Athletics are taking a little bit of money on Saint

52
00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,960
Louis and San Diego with you. Darvish is taking just

53
00:02:25,039 --> 00:02:27,280
a bit of money. So nothing too major though, guys,

54
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:33,719
nothing nothing super super huge. And w NBA under in

55
00:02:34,039 --> 00:02:37,120
New York Golden State and Phoenix has moved about a point.

56
00:02:37,159 --> 00:02:39,000
They're up to minus seven and a half against in

57
00:02:39,039 --> 00:02:42,080
the end of fever. So there you go for the

58
00:02:42,080 --> 00:02:43,800
Steam report. All right, guys, hit the like button. You

59
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,639
guys know what to do. Subscribe to the Way to

60
00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:47,919
Talk To YouTube channel, and let's bring in the great

61
00:02:48,159 --> 00:02:53,159
Ralph Michaels and Ralph, you're famous for talking about these charts.

62
00:02:53,199 --> 00:02:55,000
Speaker 2: One thing we want to do. We want to look

63
00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:56,639
at these charts, we want to explain it, and then

64
00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:57,479
we really want.

65
00:02:57,360 --> 00:02:59,159
Speaker 3: To talk about how how do we digest it, how

66
00:02:59,159 --> 00:03:01,080
do we learn from it, what can we take away

67
00:03:01,080 --> 00:03:02,719
and how does it help the handicapping this week?

68
00:03:02,759 --> 00:03:05,120
Speaker 2: So first off happy Tuesday. How are you, my friend,

69
00:03:05,479 --> 00:03:05,960
doing great?

70
00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,000
Speaker 4: Andy? I've got a question for you. When you stay

71
00:03:08,039 --> 00:03:10,360
five dollars Tuesday, do you just want to sing the

72
00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,639
foot long the subway foot.

73
00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:14,479
Speaker 2: Long five dollar Tuesday?

74
00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,599
Speaker 3: Yes, everyone has a five dollars Planet's up? I do,

75
00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:22,240
Ralph does. We'll talk about that in just a second. Ralph,

76
00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:22,879
let's get into it.

77
00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:23,000
Speaker 4: Man.

78
00:03:23,039 --> 00:03:24,639
Speaker 3: You're famous for charts. I want to start with the

79
00:03:24,719 --> 00:03:26,439
NFL and then we'll get to college football.

80
00:03:26,439 --> 00:03:29,199
Speaker 2: So say a look at these the sexy sexy charts here.

81
00:03:30,800 --> 00:03:32,719
Speaker 4: You know what, Andy, as I talked to you before,

82
00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:35,159
these are probably my two favorite charts. I probably have

83
00:03:35,199 --> 00:03:40,280
done five hundred charts, and because of the longevity, they

84
00:03:40,319 --> 00:03:45,919
make sense and they're even better percentages more recently. You

85
00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,759
need to pay attention to them. First, we're gonna talk

86
00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:53,360
about NFL Week one sides. Are their favorites or are

87
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:57,439
their dogs that are advantageous. The other thing I like

88
00:03:57,479 --> 00:04:01,840
about this chart is we break down the general record.

89
00:04:02,919 --> 00:04:06,120
It gets better as we get more specific, even better

90
00:04:06,199 --> 00:04:09,800
with a second parameter, and even better with a third parameter.

91
00:04:09,879 --> 00:04:12,719
So let's go through those. You see the middle boxes

92
00:04:12,719 --> 00:04:16,879
since two thousand and nine, the right boxes since twenty twelve.

93
00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:20,680
So Andy, this is blindly playing every NFL Week one

94
00:04:20,759 --> 00:04:24,360
dog since two thousand and nine, you are fifty four

95
00:04:24,439 --> 00:04:29,759
percent and fifty five percent since twenty twelve. If you

96
00:04:29,879 --> 00:04:33,920
have a Division Week one dog sixty five percent since

97
00:04:34,279 --> 00:04:40,920
nine sixty six since twenty twelve, a division home dog

98
00:04:42,040 --> 00:04:47,160
seventy seven percent and eighty two percent since twenty twelve.

99
00:04:47,680 --> 00:04:50,439
And take a look at the bottom division home dogs

100
00:04:50,439 --> 00:04:54,360
of one and a half or more seventy nine percent

101
00:04:54,439 --> 00:04:59,040
since two thousand and nine, eighty five percent since twenty twelve.

102
00:04:59,199 --> 00:05:03,279
So you have better recent results, and the more parameters

103
00:05:03,759 --> 00:05:06,959
you add and they make complete sense and the records

104
00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:09,560
get better. Those are the kind of charts that not

105
00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:13,480
only can you not ignore, you have to make sure

106
00:05:13,560 --> 00:05:17,319
they're part of your NFL Week one handicapping repertoire.

107
00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,920
Speaker 3: All right, well, we already have questioned the chatjave wanting

108
00:05:21,959 --> 00:05:23,120
to know about the Panthers.

109
00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:25,639
Speaker 2: So let's, uh, let's take a look at the Panthers.

110
00:05:25,680 --> 00:05:28,639
Speaker 3: You're okay and see if that happens to uh to

111
00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:31,560
fall into Well, it's Jacksonville.

112
00:05:31,720 --> 00:05:33,839
Speaker 2: Uh so they're not playing it. We're off. I'm trying

113
00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:34,680
to find some games here.

114
00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:39,000
Speaker 3: So we're looking for divisional games, so the Cowboys and

115
00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:40,560
the Eagles would fall.

116
00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:41,279
Speaker 2: Into that category.

117
00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:43,959
Speaker 3: You got the Giants in Washington that would fall into

118
00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:45,639
the categories. So when we're looking at these games, this

119
00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:46,920
is where this chart is applicable.

120
00:05:46,959 --> 00:05:47,240
Speaker 2: Correct.

121
00:05:47,879 --> 00:05:52,279
Speaker 4: The two highest percentage games are the two nfcast dogs. Correct.

122
00:05:52,439 --> 00:05:56,639
But again, you know you're still talking division All division

123
00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,519
dogs are sixty six percent. So you know, while you're

124
00:06:00,560 --> 00:06:03,319
may not looking at those home dogs or the higher percentage,

125
00:06:03,439 --> 00:06:05,240
it's just something that you have to add in.

126
00:06:07,000 --> 00:06:09,959
Speaker 2: All right, I like it. I love these charts, Ralph there,

127
00:06:10,399 --> 00:06:11,360
they're just the best.

128
00:06:11,920 --> 00:06:13,360
Speaker 3: You want to say, a look at some totals here,

129
00:06:13,439 --> 00:06:14,800
let's take a look at the totals chart.

130
00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:20,560
Speaker 4: Well, you've heard me say this many times, Andy. Low

131
00:06:20,639 --> 00:06:23,920
totals are low for a reason. High totals are high

132
00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,720
for a reason. And this chart shows you just how

133
00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:31,600
much value there is. Now, remember this, bookmakers do not

134
00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:37,360
place the line on where there is equal value. Bookmakers

135
00:06:37,399 --> 00:06:40,560
place the line to get equal money on both sides.

136
00:06:40,879 --> 00:06:44,480
So because Joe public likes Spetding favorites and like Spetding overs,

137
00:06:44,759 --> 00:06:48,240
when we have very low totals, they don't need to

138
00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:50,639
make them as low as they actually should be because

139
00:06:50,639 --> 00:06:53,879
they're getting equal money on both sides. The same with totals.

140
00:06:53,879 --> 00:06:57,120
When they get very high, many people back off those totals.

141
00:06:57,439 --> 00:07:00,560
So the chart has two sides. The left hand side

142
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:04,879
are the lowest totals forty five and under since twenty

143
00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:09,560
thirteen and forty one percent and under since twenty thirteen.

144
00:07:10,199 --> 00:07:13,519
The right hand side are totals forty five and a

145
00:07:13,519 --> 00:07:16,360
half are higher, or forty eight and a half or higher.

146
00:07:16,600 --> 00:07:20,480
But take a look especially the low totals. Andy, blindly

147
00:07:20,519 --> 00:07:25,040
betting every NFL Week one total of forty five or less,

148
00:07:25,319 --> 00:07:28,319
you have won sixty four point four percent of those games.

149
00:07:28,959 --> 00:07:32,639
And if you blindly bet every NFL Week one total

150
00:07:32,920 --> 00:07:35,720
of forty one and a half for lower, you have

151
00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,279
won seventy one percent. That's not too shabby over a

152
00:07:39,319 --> 00:07:42,120
twelve year period. So don't be afraid to bet those

153
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,560
low totals if you do like the under. The high

154
00:07:44,639 --> 00:07:48,240
side not nearly as much fifty five and fifty seven percent,

155
00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:51,519
but it still shows you value on the low totals

156
00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,279
value on the high totals, especially week one of the season.

157
00:07:56,399 --> 00:07:58,519
Speaker 3: All right, so I'm looking at the lines here the

158
00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,399
lowest total looks like the Steelers and Jets.

159
00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:06,360
Speaker 2: Thirty eight and a half does speak well for those offenses. Here.

160
00:08:06,560 --> 00:08:09,040
I don't see a total that is over that forty eight.

161
00:08:09,079 --> 00:08:10,240
I see a couple forty seven and.

162
00:08:10,279 --> 00:08:12,560
Speaker 4: A half in Buffalo, Buffalo and Baltimore is fifty.

163
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:15,800
Speaker 2: I believe Buffalo and Baltimore. Okay, that's the Yeah, you're right,

164
00:08:15,839 --> 00:08:16,560
that's the night game.

165
00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:20,680
Speaker 3: I see forty seven and a half on Miami and Indianapolis.

166
00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:24,279
I see forty seven and a half Cleveland and Cincinnati.

167
00:08:24,360 --> 00:08:26,920
I know people are already talking about how bad Cleveland

168
00:08:27,079 --> 00:08:31,240
or Cincinnati's defense is. I would have to agree with

169
00:08:31,279 --> 00:08:33,639
that one as well. So, oh, Detroit Green Bay has

170
00:08:33,639 --> 00:08:35,320
also moved up to forty seven and a half.

171
00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:38,639
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're looking at some of these. The forty

172
00:08:38,679 --> 00:08:39,480
one and a half.

173
00:08:39,279 --> 00:08:42,279
Speaker 3: Is the interesting one, Ralph, That is a that is

174
00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:45,240
a stunning amount of games.

175
00:08:44,759 --> 00:08:46,879
Speaker 2: That winning percentage is amazing.

176
00:08:47,159 --> 00:08:49,480
Speaker 4: Well, again, going back to twenty thirteen, so you got

177
00:08:49,519 --> 00:08:51,720
to remember we're pre COVID, it was a little bit different.

178
00:08:51,759 --> 00:08:54,360
We you know, we had four preseason games instead of three,

179
00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,279
so the game has changed, but the body of work

180
00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:01,159
is still pretty consistent. Even though years I took a look.

181
00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:02,679
The forty one and a half is an under I

182
00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:03,960
have done very well of late.

183
00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:05,799
Speaker 2: Love it, love it.

184
00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,720
Speaker 3: Let's move to college football here real quick. We asked

185
00:09:08,759 --> 00:09:11,159
you to look into the James Madison Louisville game. I

186
00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,919
believe that it is this Friday we got. Louisville is

187
00:09:13,919 --> 00:09:17,519
a pretty big favorite here, fourteen over under, fifty seven

188
00:09:17,519 --> 00:09:20,519
and a half. Louisville was actually kind of sloppy in

189
00:09:20,559 --> 00:09:22,600
Week one. I would expect them to clean some of

190
00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:25,000
that stuff up. I get why this line is so high.

191
00:09:25,039 --> 00:09:26,080
What's your take on this game?

192
00:09:26,879 --> 00:09:29,559
Speaker 4: Mi Andy. I'm glad you brought that up, because when

193
00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:33,559
we look at these teams, they both had FCS opponents.

194
00:09:33,919 --> 00:09:37,159
Louisville was a thirty eight and a half point favorite,

195
00:09:37,320 --> 00:09:40,679
James Madison was a twenty seven point favorite. And you

196
00:09:40,720 --> 00:09:44,759
can say, oh, look, Louisville did not cover last week

197
00:09:44,919 --> 00:09:48,799
and James Madison covered. Therefore, I'm gonna like James Madison.

198
00:09:49,159 --> 00:09:52,480
But when you're playing an FCSFO, especially week one, it's

199
00:09:52,519 --> 00:09:57,240
so very important to see how the game broke down. Now,

200
00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:01,559
Louisville led that game forty one nothing halftime. They scored

201
00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:05,639
the first five possessions and they scored a special team's touchdown.

202
00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,600
What did brom do? He said, we played a great

203
00:10:08,639 --> 00:10:11,600
first half. I'm going to empty my bench and let

204
00:10:11,639 --> 00:10:14,919
all the backups play. So forty one to nothing with

205
00:10:15,039 --> 00:10:19,360
starters completely clean, backups struggled. You look at James Madison.

206
00:10:19,559 --> 00:10:22,519
While they did cover, it was only thirty one to

207
00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,639
ten into the fourth quarter and they needed to score

208
00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:28,960
fourteen points in the fourth quarter to cover that game.

209
00:10:29,320 --> 00:10:31,759
So final results do not tell you how the game

210
00:10:31,840 --> 00:10:34,720
was played. If your coach is resting starters, I will

211
00:10:34,759 --> 00:10:38,080
say this. I am a James Madison fan. You know,

212
00:10:38,200 --> 00:10:42,360
Bob Chesney took over from a James Madison team that

213
00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,759
went eleven and two, and Signetti went to Indiana with

214
00:10:45,879 --> 00:10:49,000
I think what forty players from James Madison, so he

215
00:10:49,080 --> 00:10:52,279
basically had to restart fresh he was at Holy Cross.

216
00:10:52,440 --> 00:10:54,679
He brings in the rush attack. They rushed for one

217
00:10:54,799 --> 00:10:57,440
ninety two to four point eight last year. They lust

218
00:10:57,480 --> 00:10:59,639
for three hundred and thirty one yards and seven yards

219
00:10:59,639 --> 00:11:03,000
per ki in Week one. They have a returning quarterback

220
00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:06,360
who's excellent and he is mobile, so that does play

221
00:11:06,399 --> 00:11:09,360
into the run game. Now they're gonna run the ball

222
00:11:09,399 --> 00:11:12,440
but that does concern me against Louisville. You look at

223
00:11:12,440 --> 00:11:17,480
Louisville's front seven, five returning starters. One of the starters

224
00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:20,799
that did not start last year started thirteen games the

225
00:11:20,879 --> 00:11:23,240
year before. When it's hurt, I count that as a

226
00:11:23,279 --> 00:11:27,240
returning starter. Make it six. And another starter is a

227
00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:30,720
five game starter from Coastal Carolina last year. One of

228
00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:33,840
the best front sevens in the conference. And I think

229
00:11:33,919 --> 00:11:38,600
they can slow that rush attack. My numbers actually have

230
00:11:38,759 --> 00:11:42,120
this at thirteen. Again, my power ratings the first few

231
00:11:42,159 --> 00:11:44,159
weeks of the year, I don't really use them. I

232
00:11:44,279 --> 00:11:46,759
do them and monitor and see what happens. This one

233
00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:53,559
surprise me though, Andy Friday games in week two. The

234
00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:56,759
road team is actually eleven and five sixty nine percent

235
00:11:57,000 --> 00:12:00,399
since twenty and eleven. And why does that's a prize me?

236
00:12:00,399 --> 00:12:02,399
Because you would think early in the year, you have

237
00:12:02,440 --> 00:12:06,120
a short week, you have less practice going, less practice time,

238
00:12:06,240 --> 00:12:08,720
going on the road, a day less, you're out of

239
00:12:08,759 --> 00:12:12,519
their routine. But again, away teams have done well. And

240
00:12:12,600 --> 00:12:15,600
I do want to point this out. When both teams

241
00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:19,480
won their opener by twenty plus games, the over under

242
00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,799
is fifty eight percent to the under. The offenses were

243
00:12:22,840 --> 00:12:25,960
not tested, and they certainly will be tested this week

244
00:12:26,200 --> 00:12:30,799
as well as the defenses. With all that said, the

245
00:12:30,919 --> 00:12:36,919
James Madison rush attack the Louisville front seven, I'm gonna

246
00:12:36,919 --> 00:12:42,559
go under first half James Madison team total. Now, James

247
00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,159
Madison team total is twenty one and a half for

248
00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:49,120
the game, so it's gonna be slightly less the numbers

249
00:12:49,200 --> 00:12:51,399
out now yet, But as long as you get over ten,

250
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:54,960
if you're getting under ten and a half or under eleven,

251
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,159
I do like this as a best bet. If the

252
00:12:58,279 --> 00:13:02,159
James Madison first half total comes out under ten, I

253
00:13:02,200 --> 00:13:04,559
want no part of it, but I'm ninety nine percent

254
00:13:04,639 --> 00:13:07,039
sure it's going to be over that number. Those numbers

255
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,840
will start getting posted on Wednesday. You guys know what

256
00:13:09,879 --> 00:13:13,080
to do if the number is correct. Team total James

257
00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:17,200
Madison first half. As long as it's ten or more,

258
00:13:17,519 --> 00:13:19,240
we're going to go under first half.

259
00:13:20,440 --> 00:13:23,559
Speaker 2: I like that breakdown. That's that's a sneaky way to

260
00:13:23,600 --> 00:13:23,960
look at that.

261
00:13:24,039 --> 00:13:26,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of times we forget about the halves

262
00:13:26,879 --> 00:13:29,000
and the team totals, and the team totals and the halves.

263
00:13:29,039 --> 00:13:30,919
It's so nice to have all these sports books that

264
00:13:30,919 --> 00:13:33,200
we have at our disposal. Now to give us those lines.

265
00:13:33,200 --> 00:13:35,759
So great breakdown, Ralph, I really really like that one.

266
00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:37,840
Speaker 2: It's five dollars Tuesday. What do you have up?

267
00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:41,039
Speaker 4: Well, Andy, I don't have a baseball play today. I've

268
00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:43,240
been doing no run first innings and there was not

269
00:13:43,399 --> 00:13:45,240
value today, so I'm not going to force the play

270
00:13:45,279 --> 00:13:48,240
and pass. But i have a very special five dollars

271
00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:53,679
NFL play. NFL plays rated four percent or five percent,

272
00:13:53,720 --> 00:13:57,200
football plays, college football NFL four percent and five percent,

273
00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:02,039
nineteen and three eighty five percent, my teasers rated four

274
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:06,159
percent or five percent, seven and oh one percent and

275
00:14:06,360 --> 00:14:11,720
fourteen and one ninety one percent. Get that play five

276
00:14:11,799 --> 00:14:15,279
dollars and remember, even though the play does not go today,

277
00:14:15,639 --> 00:14:18,519
the price goes back the full price at Wednesday. So

278
00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,279
any football packages you want to wager talk that are

279
00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,039
five dollars, make sure you grab them before midnight.

280
00:14:25,639 --> 00:14:28,279
Speaker 2: Love it, love it five dollars football play.

281
00:14:28,720 --> 00:14:31,960
Speaker 3: Incredible record there, Ralph, thank you so much for joining us,

282
00:14:32,159 --> 00:14:35,679
Good luck continued success, and thank you for sharing about

283
00:14:35,679 --> 00:14:38,039
the No one first inning. You're You're absolutely right, no

284
00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,960
need to force anything, especially when the when the line

285
00:14:41,000 --> 00:14:41,360
isn't there.

286
00:14:41,399 --> 00:14:43,759
Speaker 2: So Ralph Michaels, everyone take care of Ralph. Have a

287
00:14:43,759 --> 00:14:48,240
great day, my friend. All right, guys, it.

288
00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:52,679
Speaker 3: Is five dollars Tuesday, best value in the industry. Every

289
00:14:52,720 --> 00:14:55,360
capper at wager talk has a top play up for

290
00:14:55,480 --> 00:14:58,759
just five bucks. That's the same bets I'm betting myself.

291
00:14:59,200 --> 00:15:01,200
We have our Contender Series best bet that is up.

292
00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,480
For example, we hit our last two on Contender Series.

293
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,639
I've told you guys, every Tuesday, my Contender Series best

294
00:15:06,639 --> 00:15:08,759
bet is going to be five bucks. You can stack

295
00:15:08,799 --> 00:15:11,919
as many handicappers as you want. Again, bet responsibly. Don't

296
00:15:11,919 --> 00:15:13,879
have too much of your bankroll in play, but it's

297
00:15:13,879 --> 00:15:15,759
a great way to try out a new handicapper or

298
00:15:15,879 --> 00:15:20,519
your favorite handicapper. Five dollars Tuesday, best deal in the industry.

299
00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,120
No reason, not no reason not get some five dollar plays.

300
00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:27,519
What a great Tuesday. Amazing Tuesday. Five dollars over at

301
00:15:27,519 --> 00:15:31,360
wages doal dot com. Let's go to all around the world.

302
00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:35,000
Let's talk about some games and some free plays. Here

303
00:15:36,240 --> 00:15:39,559
we mentioned the Giants and the Rockies. The Giants might

304
00:15:39,600 --> 00:15:42,039
just want to have. Several Haiti cappers have this listed

305
00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,000
as a free play, and it makes sense. The Giants

306
00:15:44,039 --> 00:15:46,080
won eight out of their last nine games, six of

307
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:47,000
those wins.

308
00:15:46,799 --> 00:15:47,720
Speaker 2: Were by the run line.

309
00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:50,240
Speaker 3: They beat Colorado eight to two yesterday, and Freeland is

310
00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:51,480
pitching for the Rockies.

311
00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:54,159
Speaker 2: Six point three six r a at home.

312
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:58,720
Speaker 3: Yikes, I see team totals are pretty popular on the Giants.

313
00:15:58,919 --> 00:16:00,720
Speaker 2: Their bats have been read. How I get it.

314
00:16:01,440 --> 00:16:03,960
Speaker 3: We're gonna go to the fever at the Mercury. Lexi

315
00:16:04,039 --> 00:16:06,639
Hall over three and a half rebounds. She's went over

316
00:16:06,679 --> 00:16:08,960
in eight out of the last ten games. In the

317
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,679
last two games against Phoenix, she has six and five rebounds. Chris,

318
00:16:11,679 --> 00:16:14,840
can we see the picture of Lexi Hall. Yeah, that's

319
00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,240
what Lexie Hall looks like these days. She got a

320
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:20,000
massive collision in a game, she fought through it. She's

321
00:16:20,039 --> 00:16:23,480
still playing with those two big black guys. That's the

322
00:16:23,519 --> 00:16:25,919
girl I want to take over rebounds. She's gonna get

323
00:16:25,919 --> 00:16:28,559
in there and fight Lexi Hall and her two black guys.

324
00:16:28,639 --> 00:16:31,360
Speaker 2: Let's catch that three and a half over rebounds.

325
00:16:31,799 --> 00:16:34,679
Speaker 3: Amazing, amazing, and she's a great follow on social media too.

326
00:16:34,679 --> 00:16:36,879
By the way, Cowboys at the Eagles, let's do a

327
00:16:36,879 --> 00:16:40,000
proper Jalen Hurts no interception. This thing is juicy, but

328
00:16:41,159 --> 00:16:43,879
it makes total sense. He's thrown two interceptions in the

329
00:16:43,919 --> 00:16:46,720
last sixteen games. This is just one of these rinse

330
00:16:46,759 --> 00:16:50,759
and repeat plays. There's several quarterbacks that just don't throw interceptions,

331
00:16:50,759 --> 00:16:53,039
and Hurts is one of them. He has not thrown

332
00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,200
an interception at home against Dallas in his career. So

333
00:16:56,240 --> 00:16:58,120
we're gonna lay the juice and we're gonna take Jalen

334
00:16:58,159 --> 00:17:03,440
Hurts no interception, all right. See my buddy Steve Merrill

335
00:17:03,759 --> 00:17:08,599
is here. Of course, Steve has not one R, two

336
00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:11,039
RS and one L in his name.

337
00:17:11,160 --> 00:17:13,279
Speaker 2: Happy five dollars Tuesday, Steve, How are.

338
00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,559
Speaker 1: You get on the chapa? I don't know if you

339
00:17:15,559 --> 00:17:17,039
could hear this. Right as we started, there's like a

340
00:17:17,079 --> 00:17:20,920
heavy military chop for going over, so hopefully the he's

341
00:17:20,960 --> 00:17:21,319
not back.

342
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:26,359
Speaker 2: Wow, I can't hear. That's amazing right.

343
00:17:26,839 --> 00:17:32,440
Speaker 1: Here, and otherwise I look silly saying the tapaday abe

344
00:17:32,519 --> 00:17:38,119
get in the chapa. Pro from military helping me out

345
00:17:38,119 --> 00:17:40,839
here on the East Coast. Got Steve Merril live live

346
00:17:40,880 --> 00:17:46,160
from Fort ben U, live from a bunker somewhere near you.

347
00:17:47,039 --> 00:17:47,359
Speaker 2: Steve.

348
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,640
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get as you know, and I'm always

349
00:17:50,640 --> 00:17:52,640
trying to get canceled. I'm saying redskins here, I got

350
00:17:52,680 --> 00:17:55,680
redskins stuff everywhere. But there's a great two black eye

351
00:17:55,759 --> 00:17:58,880
joke I heard years ago that I won't stay With's

352
00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:00,880
probably rubbing a lot of people wrong way, but it's.

353
00:18:00,880 --> 00:18:03,359
Speaker 2: I know, I know this joke, and you know I'm

354
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:04,559
trying to I know this joke.

355
00:18:04,759 --> 00:18:06,319
Speaker 1: Like sports orient Like, what do you tell likes to

356
00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:07,920
but she doesn't get two rebounds in the game. Not

357
00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:09,559
you've already reound?

358
00:18:09,880 --> 00:18:11,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, yeah, yes, you.

359
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,519
Speaker 1: Can do it that way. Is that okay? I'd like

360
00:18:14,559 --> 00:18:17,839
to know that joke. Yeah, yeah, I'll never tell that joke.

361
00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:19,039
It's awful.

362
00:18:19,279 --> 00:18:19,680
Speaker 2: All right.

363
00:18:19,799 --> 00:18:23,279
Speaker 3: Let's uh, well, let's talk Cowboys and Eagles. I know

364
00:18:23,279 --> 00:18:26,160
you're gonna break down Yankees and Astros for it, but uh,

365
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,880
NFL kicks off. We got the Cowboys, got the Eagles.

366
00:18:29,759 --> 00:18:31,200
Eagles big favorite.

367
00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 2: Over under sitting at a pretty vanilla forty seven and

368
00:18:33,319 --> 00:18:33,799
a half.

369
00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:36,920
Speaker 3: I love the Eagles this year. I think they're under

370
00:18:36,960 --> 00:18:40,480
the radar. I've never heard I've never seen a Super Bowl.

371
00:18:40,279 --> 00:18:45,559
Speaker 2: Team the radar. Yes, nobody likes them.

372
00:18:45,599 --> 00:18:47,799
Speaker 3: It just feels it feels like everyone's out on the Eagles,

373
00:18:47,839 --> 00:18:50,680
and I don't get it. I mean, they're big favorite

374
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,240
starts of the books obviously, like them.

375
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 2: I love the Eagles. What do you think of this game?

376
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:58,000
Speaker 1: Fascinating game to talk about for so many reasons. Lots

377
00:18:58,039 --> 00:18:59,680
of angles. I'm gonna give you a free play in

378
00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,079
this Eagles Cowboys Thursday night game, but also some big

379
00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,400
picture stuff with survivor pools and just ways if you

380
00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:06,799
do want to play one side or the other, how

381
00:19:06,839 --> 00:19:08,160
I think you should attack it. So this is a

382
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:11,119
great kickoff game to start the NFL regular season this

383
00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:14,680
Thursday night at eight twenty eastern Dallas at Philadelphia. And

384
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,440
as our good friend Ralph Michaels will tell you, divisional

385
00:19:17,440 --> 00:19:19,720
dogs do well in Week one in the NFL, and

386
00:19:19,759 --> 00:19:22,680
it makes a lot of sense for several reasons. I've

387
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:24,440
always said that Week one of the NFL is kind

388
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,599
of Week five of the preseason. I can't say that

389
00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:28,880
anymore because we only have three weeks of the preseason,

390
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:31,519
but you can make an argument it's even more preseason

391
00:19:31,559 --> 00:19:33,960
is since there's only three preseason games and not four.

392
00:19:34,599 --> 00:19:36,720
We do see some bizarre results in Week one across

393
00:19:36,759 --> 00:19:38,440
the board that don't always translate to the rest of

394
00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,359
the season. So it makes sense that divisional dogs, teams

395
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,480
that know each other well taking the points is probably

396
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:45,799
the way to go now. As Ralph Michaels also tell you,

397
00:19:45,839 --> 00:19:48,079
the divisional home dogs have been the sweet spot, not

398
00:19:48,160 --> 00:19:51,200
as much road dogs. And we also know that Thursday

399
00:19:51,279 --> 00:19:53,839
night favorites Thursday night home teams in general have been

400
00:19:53,880 --> 00:19:55,519
to play. If you just play the better team on

401
00:19:55,559 --> 00:19:58,240
Thursday night games, you normally do well. And there's a

402
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:00,759
couple of reasons why that works. First of alltight game,

403
00:20:01,079 --> 00:20:03,480
and whenever you're getting two teams in a focused spot,

404
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:05,759
the better team normally has the edge. But the reason

405
00:20:05,759 --> 00:20:07,880
it really works, in my opinion, during the regular season

406
00:20:07,920 --> 00:20:10,519
is because of the short turnaround. It's normally just three

407
00:20:10,599 --> 00:20:12,880
days of rest and then travel. It's just two days

408
00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:15,359
of prep for the road team. That's not the case

409
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,359
obviously here in this week one opener. So I am

410
00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:20,480
more inclined to give Dallas a little bit more of

411
00:20:20,519 --> 00:20:23,079
a chance in this game, and I'll take the contrarian

412
00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:26,559
call here with the Cowboys at plus eight. Also, it's

413
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:28,680
ring night. I assume it's ring night when they always

414
00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:30,480
give the championship rings. That could be a little bit

415
00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,680
of a distraction, and I think Dallas could be a

416
00:20:32,759 --> 00:20:35,720
little bit better than people expect this season. Everyone's big

417
00:20:35,759 --> 00:20:38,400
on the Commanders, no one's big on the Giants, But

418
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,240
I think Dallas is a team nobody's talking about in

419
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:42,079
the division that could maybe sneak up and give the

420
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:44,960
Eagles a run. And we'll find out on Thursday night.

421
00:20:45,599 --> 00:20:47,200
But something else I want to point out about this

422
00:20:47,279 --> 00:20:49,200
game as well, as if you do play the Eagles,

423
00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:51,440
you're probably better off taking them down to minus two.

424
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:53,720
It does set up as a pretty good teaser selection.

425
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,240
Giving them is a straight up win situation, defending Super

426
00:20:57,240 --> 00:20:59,160
Bowl champs on that strong home field. So I like

427
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,759
Dallas plus eight eight. But if you do play the Eagles,

428
00:21:01,759 --> 00:21:03,640
you might want to consider the teaser option down to

429
00:21:03,680 --> 00:21:06,880
minus two. But I will say Week one NFL teasers

430
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,400
probably aren't the best long term investment. We don't tease

431
00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:13,160
preseason games because of the randomness, the softer lines, and

432
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:14,839
once again, if I think Week one of the NFL

433
00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:17,920
is semi preseason still as far as the results, teasers

434
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,839
probably aren't a huge advantage play this week either. But

435
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,720
if you do like Philly, you're probably better off getting

436
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:24,240
it down to minus two. Tie that up with one

437
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:26,759
of the Sunday games. I'm looking at the board now

438
00:21:26,799 --> 00:21:28,359
you could take the Jets two and a half three

439
00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:30,559
up to eight eight and a half nine. You've also

440
00:21:30,599 --> 00:21:32,640
got another eight point favorite of the Broncos. You can

441
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,640
get them down to two minus tennessee at home. And

442
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,920
by the way, speaking of the Broncos being minus eight

443
00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:40,400
and the Eagles being minus eight, this will be one

444
00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:43,599
of the biggest Survivor picks this week, I would assume,

445
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,000
because they're the biggest favorite on the board. And this

446
00:21:46,079 --> 00:21:48,359
is something else I want to talk about here, very

447
00:21:48,519 --> 00:21:51,799
unique situation. Since most Survivor contests allow you to enter

448
00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:54,039
I would assume up until kickoff on Sunday at one

449
00:21:54,079 --> 00:21:57,160
o'clock Eastern, lots of ways you can play this. If

450
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,519
the Cowboys do pull the outright upset as an eight

451
00:21:59,559 --> 00:22:02,119
point dollar, that's going to lock a good amount of

452
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:05,039
people out of their Survivor pools. Now, will they re up? Perhaps,

453
00:22:05,519 --> 00:22:07,160
But if you've been on the fence about entering some

454
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:09,880
Survivor pools, I want to wait to see if Dallas

455
00:22:09,880 --> 00:22:12,200
pulls the upset, because you're gonna probably have about twenty

456
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,920
to thirty percent of your competition already eliminate. It might

457
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:16,440
be a good reason to re up or even get

458
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:19,920
some more entries in your Survivor pool. Maybe just stay

459
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:21,799
away from Philly in this game Thursday. I hope that

460
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,680
Dallas pulls that big upset and then maybe sneak in

461
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:28,279
and get some overlay value in Survivor pools on Sunday morning.

462
00:22:29,759 --> 00:22:33,319
Speaker 3: I love playing in NFL Survivors, and I don't know

463
00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,039
why I've never won one, and I always get mad

464
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,160
and every year I'm like, I'm never doing this again,

465
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,960
and then of course I'm entering a bit more so.

466
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, Colin says he.

467
00:22:44,279 --> 00:22:47,559
Speaker 3: Likes the Cardinals for the Survivor pick. I'm guessing that

468
00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:52,440
fading the Saints, that Titans Broncos game, Cowboys Eagles.

469
00:22:52,519 --> 00:22:55,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's got disaster written all over it. One of

470
00:22:55,319 --> 00:22:57,160
those teams is going to lose and knock. Like you said,

471
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:58,839
thirty percent of the people out.

472
00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,920
Speaker 1: So well that thing. And I mean, the Saints are

473
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:02,559
supposed to be the worst team right there, six and

474
00:23:02,599 --> 00:23:05,480
a half point home dog to Arizona. But like I said,

475
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:08,240
if week one is random compared to the other weeks,

476
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:09,960
this is where you get some great I think, a

477
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,599
really good strategy. By the way, I ask some people

478
00:23:11,599 --> 00:23:13,400
have been asking me to do a Survivor pick video.

479
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,920
I'm playing with the idea. It's tricky obviously, because you know,

480
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,079
once you get eliminated or whatnot, and a lot of

481
00:23:19,079 --> 00:23:22,279
people are out. But I think a good rule of

482
00:23:22,319 --> 00:23:24,799
thumb is maybe just kind of always never take the

483
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:26,839
number one pick and you can kind of figure out

484
00:23:26,880 --> 00:23:29,160
what it is every week. And we saw that work

485
00:23:29,279 --> 00:23:32,039
so well last year. The Bengals were one of them.

486
00:23:32,079 --> 00:23:33,960
What was it the Lions lost? Was it to the

487
00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,920
Niners in Week three? Whenever the Lions lost in Week three,

488
00:23:37,519 --> 00:23:40,079
By that point, like seventy to eighty percent of people

489
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:41,839
were out of their contest, and then it was nothing

490
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:43,720
but chalk, And as you know from as a better

491
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:45,839
it was like the most chalk heavy run we've seen

492
00:23:45,880 --> 00:23:48,400
an NFL history for like the next six weeks through October.

493
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,279
But so few people were so alive in their contests

494
00:23:51,279 --> 00:23:54,000
that those that were just went on massive runs. You

495
00:23:54,079 --> 00:23:55,799
got it. Like I said earlier, you don't necessarily take

496
00:23:55,799 --> 00:23:58,480
the Cowboys, but you also maybe don't play the Eagles.

497
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:00,319
You just hope the Dallas wins out. I did not,

498
00:24:00,559 --> 00:24:02,640
you know, a third of year competition out before the weekend.

499
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's one of the ways that you almost have

500
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,480
to play Survivors. You can't play the one that everyone

501
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,640
else plays, because even if they win, you don't knock

502
00:24:11,680 --> 00:24:12,279
anybody out.

503
00:24:12,319 --> 00:24:13,640
Speaker 2: You're just moving.

504
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:15,079
Speaker 1: Along with the crowd, like right, even if you win,

505
00:24:15,079 --> 00:24:16,799
you're gonna chop it with one hundred other people.

506
00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,200
Speaker 2: So it's like that's exactly right.

507
00:24:18,319 --> 00:24:20,839
Speaker 1: Yeah, game theory. We call that game theory. I love it.

508
00:24:21,799 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 3: Speaking of lack of game theory, did Bell Belichick have

509
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:26,640
the worst week?

510
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 1: So, you know, I was thinking about the free play

511
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:31,920
videos did really well this week. I had a hot

512
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:34,119
My simulation, by the way, had to Ohio State by eight

513
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,279
and a half points, and even I thought that was crazy.

514
00:24:36,319 --> 00:24:38,119
I kicked the computer a couple of times and then

515
00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,160
realized why am I kicking computer? It costs a lot

516
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,759
of money. But you know, they won by seven and

517
00:24:43,200 --> 00:24:45,240
when people in the comments are start saying there's no

518
00:24:45,359 --> 00:24:47,680
way they can win by more than a touchdown, I

519
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:51,960
started realizing how public Texas was on Saturday, so a

520
00:24:52,039 --> 00:24:55,599
nice free play video play there fading the number one Longhorns. Oh,

521
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:58,400
by the way, Booger McFarlane, whatever his name is, I'm

522
00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:01,880
watching the games on Saturday and they're showing the highlights

523
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:03,519
of that Saturday night. He goes and they're showing the

524
00:25:03,559 --> 00:25:06,839
Penn State highlights. They're romping whoever it was, Marshall, whoever

525
00:25:06,839 --> 00:25:09,559
they played, and they go He's like the likely new

526
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:12,039
number one with Texas going down Penn State. I'm like,

527
00:25:12,079 --> 00:25:14,960
how would you put them ahead of Ohio State, who

528
00:25:15,039 --> 00:25:18,160
was two in the coaches poll with twenty first plays vote.

529
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:19,640
I don't know, and I haven't seen the polls. I

530
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,519
guess they haven't come out yet, but like, that was insane,

531
00:25:22,599 --> 00:25:25,960
I mean, just personally. But my point is, we had

532
00:25:25,960 --> 00:25:28,559
South Carolina Sunday, we had Miami Florida in the free

533
00:25:28,559 --> 00:25:31,039
play video. I'd really have done well with the free

534
00:25:31,039 --> 00:25:32,799
play videos. And I had TCU last night. I had

535
00:25:32,839 --> 00:25:35,200
him by six and a half in my simulation, and

536
00:25:35,319 --> 00:25:37,039
I didn't let the three and a half scare me.

537
00:25:37,079 --> 00:25:38,759
They've gone from a one and a half point dog

538
00:25:38,799 --> 00:25:41,519
to a three and a half point favorite, and Belichick

539
00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,160
was probably getting some public love, but he's not out

540
00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,960
there playing the games. And something I told one of

541
00:25:46,799 --> 00:25:48,759
the people in my comments was that, you know, don't

542
00:25:48,799 --> 00:25:50,680
forget he didn't have a very good start in the NFL.

543
00:25:50,720 --> 00:25:54,240
With his hit coaching career exactly thirty four years ago

544
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:57,440
to the date, on September first, nineteen ninety one, he

545
00:25:57,519 --> 00:26:00,720
was with the Browns. So you know, again you had

546
00:26:00,759 --> 00:26:03,960
Tom Brady best quarterback ever. Perhaps I don't think he

547
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:05,720
has that at U and see it. He was exposed

548
00:26:05,759 --> 00:26:07,440
last night though. We'll see what the lines look like

549
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:09,200
going forward, though, but you know, we'll probably get an

550
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:10,559
overreaction now the other way.

551
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:14,599
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Oh, at Penn State played Nevada, I did

552
00:26:14,759 --> 00:26:15,680
I think I didnt Novata?

553
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:17,519
Speaker 1: I know somebody somebody there.

554
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:19,440
Speaker 3: I took Novada over six and a half on the

555
00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,359
team total cash it baby, they got to a lot.

556
00:26:22,279 --> 00:26:26,039
Speaker 1: Of teams get to seven by the way. I lost. Hey, hey,

557
00:26:26,079 --> 00:26:28,400
look true full transparency. I know you love it. The

558
00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:30,240
free play videos did really well in the top twenty

559
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,720
five games and whatnot. The best bets could have done

560
00:26:32,759 --> 00:26:36,279
extremely well. I had three losses this week in which

561
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:41,480
and the opponents scored seven points or zero points. Three losses. Now,

562
00:26:41,519 --> 00:26:43,799
if you hold your opponent to seven or zero, what

563
00:26:43,839 --> 00:26:45,759
do you think your long term win? Probably like eighty

564
00:26:45,839 --> 00:26:48,000
or ninety percent, even with big favorites. I don't care.

565
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,599
Like just insane, how sharp some of these big numbers

566
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,440
were this week and just some backdoor covers. Statistically felt

567
00:26:55,440 --> 00:26:57,279
like we had the right side and almost all those games,

568
00:26:57,319 --> 00:26:58,160
but it was pretty wild.

569
00:26:59,599 --> 00:27:00,440
Speaker 2: Well, let's moved to.

570
00:27:00,759 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 3: Major League Baseball here, Steve Yankees and Astros, big two

571
00:27:04,799 --> 00:27:08,200
big names here. Pretty close to a pick them Yankee

572
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,079
slight favorite, Freed going for Yankees, Valdez for the Astros.

573
00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:15,480
Over under sitting at eight feels kind of low, but

574
00:27:15,519 --> 00:27:17,839
then again, you look at these pitchers. Freed was kind

575
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,400
of slump a little bit. He's pitching the last time out,

576
00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:23,039
had much better stuff there. What do you make of

577
00:27:23,039 --> 00:27:24,640
this Yankees Astros matchup today?

578
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:28,079
Speaker 1: Yeah, a huge game tonight on Tuesday, National TV. This

579
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,079
is your TBS National TV game and True TV. They're

580
00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:33,759
putting it on both networks at eight o'clock Eastern Tuesday night.

581
00:27:33,839 --> 00:27:37,000
So this is the spotlight game for Tuesday Baseball. Yankees

582
00:27:37,039 --> 00:27:40,240
at Astros, and some high scoring games yesterday on Monday,

583
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,359
on Labor Day. These teams were working on Labor Day.

584
00:27:43,400 --> 00:27:44,960
In fact, I had an under best bet, My one

585
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,000
best bet in baseball last night was the Oriols game

586
00:27:47,079 --> 00:27:49,480
under and that stayed under. But you look at some

587
00:27:49,559 --> 00:27:53,880
of these other scores Mets Tigers eighteen runs, eleven runs

588
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:56,400
in the White Sox game, fourteen runs in the Athletics game,

589
00:27:56,440 --> 00:27:59,240
thirteen in the Cubs game. We had twelve in the

590
00:27:59,279 --> 00:28:01,119
Texas game. I'll come those dig go to exter innings.

591
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:02,680
I'm aware of that. But still a lot of double

592
00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:05,319
digit results. So the teams in general are hitting the

593
00:28:05,319 --> 00:28:07,599
ball pretty good right now. Even though September is here,

594
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:10,440
baseball is still in full top throttle, full effect. And

595
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,240
I do like the over in this game tonight as

596
00:28:13,319 --> 00:28:16,240
well on Tuesday, for a few reasons. First of all,

597
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,599
line value, it is a low total here. I think

598
00:28:18,599 --> 00:28:21,359
it's too low for two very capable offenses. And the

599
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:23,799
reason we get an eight here is because we got

600
00:28:23,839 --> 00:28:26,039
a pair of lefties on the mound, Freed and Valdez,

601
00:28:26,079 --> 00:28:29,799
two the better pitchers in baseball to veteran strong pitchers.

602
00:28:29,799 --> 00:28:32,119
But one thing I like to look at in September

603
00:28:32,839 --> 00:28:34,599
is guys that maybe are fading a little bit, And

604
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,000
now both these guys can go the distance free through

605
00:28:37,039 --> 00:28:39,680
one hundred and seventy seventy four innings last year in

606
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,279
the regular season, He's at one hundred and sixty two

607
00:28:42,319 --> 00:28:44,079
this year. But it does look like he's wearing down.

608
00:28:44,119 --> 00:28:46,519
He has a three point one ERA overall this year,

609
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:49,759
but over his last seven starts since late July a

610
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:53,160
five point zero ERA, and he's coming off back to

611
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:55,640
back good outings. He was horrendous before that. He's given

612
00:28:55,720 --> 00:28:57,519
up just one run, one er and run of the

613
00:28:57,599 --> 00:28:59,480
last thirteen innings and two starts he stills in the

614
00:28:59,480 --> 00:29:02,440
era BOM five is last seven, So I still think

615
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:05,559
he's a little dicey and Franbur Valdez. We always joke

616
00:29:05,599 --> 00:29:07,319
he gets weaker as the season goes on because he

617
00:29:07,319 --> 00:29:09,799
can't cheat as much. But this is an era of

618
00:29:09,799 --> 00:29:12,279
a three point two on the season, four point four

619
00:29:12,799 --> 00:29:15,240
going back to late July over his last seven starts

620
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,599
as well, and both these guys are only about a

621
00:29:17,599 --> 00:29:20,240
game or two from hitting their innings pitch total last year.

622
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:23,240
I think even if just one of them is off tonight,

623
00:29:23,599 --> 00:29:25,759
we can get over this fairly low total of over eight.

624
00:29:25,759 --> 00:29:27,279
And I'm willing to bet one of them probably doesn't

625
00:29:27,319 --> 00:29:29,279
have a great outing, especially since they both are coming

626
00:29:29,319 --> 00:29:32,279
off strong showings and their last start, but Valdez did

627
00:29:32,319 --> 00:29:34,599
it at home against the Rockies. Not going to read

628
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:36,720
too much into that. And I know, yeah, that last

629
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,200
great start by Fried was at home against not my

630
00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:42,519
Washington Nationals to the worst offensive teams in baseball. Big

631
00:29:42,559 --> 00:29:45,119
turnaround here tonight. We've seen this total go from seven

632
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:47,200
and a half up to eight. I still like the value,

633
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,359
and we're actually getting at eight over minus one zho five.

634
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:52,079
Now take a look at the Yankees and Astros over

635
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,759
the total eight o'clock Eastern on TBS National TV tonight

636
00:29:55,920 --> 00:29:56,599
on Tuesday.

637
00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 2: Boys shots fired at Valdez man.

638
00:30:00,559 --> 00:30:03,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just too much. That's just too He actually

639
00:30:03,920 --> 00:30:05,160
is a pretty good picture. He might be one of

640
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:06,680
the fear that don't need to change in the morning

641
00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:10,759
on that Gastros team. But still just it's easy pickings.

642
00:30:10,839 --> 00:30:12,160
It's like shooting fish in a barrel.

643
00:30:12,839 --> 00:30:15,480
Speaker 2: I know, I know, sometimes a low hanging fruit does

644
00:30:15,519 --> 00:30:16,079
taste the bit it.

645
00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,960
Speaker 1: Was so would I don't think we can say shooting

646
00:30:20,000 --> 00:30:21,880
fish in a barrel either. Maybe that don't get me canceled.

647
00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,720
I'm trying so hard making fun of Valdez.

648
00:30:24,839 --> 00:30:28,359
Speaker 2: Trying professional professional comedian Steve Merrill bringing all this.

649
00:30:28,599 --> 00:30:31,440
Speaker 1: Trying to get some I actually had a good one.

650
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,359
I saw. This isn't an original. I think I saw

651
00:30:33,359 --> 00:30:35,240
it on Instagram like the three four Days. I gotta

652
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:37,319
go back and find it. I should have like screenshoted it,

653
00:30:37,359 --> 00:30:39,599
but I meant to come on to Day Andy, but

654
00:30:39,640 --> 00:30:41,440
the whole like other thing threw me off and say,

655
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:45,440
like breaking NFL news in Week one, Travis Kelcey is pregnant.

656
00:30:45,799 --> 00:30:48,000
I saw that meme the other day and I was dying.

657
00:30:48,559 --> 00:30:50,359
The way they did it was just like the picture

658
00:30:50,359 --> 00:30:53,960
of him from the side and oh my goodness, I

659
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,160
don't know. It was pretty good.

660
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 3: Again, poor Travis Kelcey doing nothing wrong, minding his own beds.

661
00:31:00,240 --> 00:31:02,319
Speaker 1: My question is, could you played the first couple months

662
00:31:02,359 --> 00:31:03,599
and then he asked to sit out? Like, how does

663
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,160
this work? We've never had an NFL guy pregnant in season.

664
00:31:07,799 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 2: It's five dollars Tuesday, Steve, what do you have of

665
00:31:10,039 --> 00:31:10,640
a wage? You talk?

666
00:31:11,359 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: So actually two five dollars Tuesday specials. We still have

667
00:31:14,359 --> 00:31:17,119
my top NFL Future's best bet up for just five dollars. Now,

668
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,680
it's been up all summer. I know many of you

669
00:31:18,759 --> 00:31:21,640
have already gotten this play. The line value is still there.

670
00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,839
It's my top NFL over under season wins best bet,

671
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:28,119
and it's available for just five dollars, and also I

672
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,680
will a top Baseball best bet for five dollars Tuesday

673
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,160
tonight as well, and don't forget about the free play.

674
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:35,599
I'm very selective, one to three best bets on average,

675
00:31:35,599 --> 00:31:38,519
which means that last cut just a bit outside from

676
00:31:38,519 --> 00:31:40,799
making the card. The best bet card goes up as

677
00:31:40,799 --> 00:31:42,960
a bonus free play, and I do have a free

678
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:45,519
play opinion tonight in the National League for you in

679
00:31:45,519 --> 00:31:47,720
your late night game between the Giants and Rocky, So

680
00:31:47,839 --> 00:31:50,400
get that Giants Rockies free play right now, and then

681
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:53,519
check out the five dollars best bet Steve Merrill waittertalk

682
00:31:53,559 --> 00:31:57,200
dot com and get there quicker with shortcut wt dot

683
00:31:57,240 --> 00:32:00,640
buzz slash sm and don't forget to like the videos

684
00:32:00,680 --> 00:32:03,720
thumbs up comment below, subscribe and click that bell for

685
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:05,680
an instant alert here on wager Talk TV, because I

686
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,279
will have a ton of free play college and pro

687
00:32:08,279 --> 00:32:11,200
football videos this week, including my Top twenty five college

688
00:32:11,240 --> 00:32:14,440
video on Fridays and also my NFL Faith the Public

689
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:17,640
debut for Week one this weekend Saturday here on wager

690
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:18,119
Talk TV.

691
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 2: Great work, Steve, Did you catch you in the NASCAR race?

692
00:32:24,039 --> 00:32:26,400
Speaker 1: I saw the highlights, I did see the final lap

693
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,079
this time, and I was like, man, this has passed

694
00:32:29,119 --> 00:32:31,160
me by. We got guys winning in the playoffs. He

695
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:32,960
never would have made the playoffs in years past.

696
00:32:33,759 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 3: It's wild, man, It's the setting up for someone very,

697
00:32:36,519 --> 00:32:38,079
very bizarre to win this champion.

698
00:32:38,119 --> 00:32:39,559
Speaker 1: Do you have any futures out there, Andy, Do you

699
00:32:39,599 --> 00:32:41,200
ever play NASCAR futures?

700
00:32:41,720 --> 00:32:41,920
Speaker 2: Yeah?

701
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:44,319
Speaker 3: We had Michael McDowell to not win a race in

702
00:32:44,359 --> 00:32:48,960
the regular season, Kyle Busch under one and a half wins.

703
00:32:49,079 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 1: I don't that was solid. He might not There was

704
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,079
a chance he might not race two races all year

705
00:32:54,119 --> 00:32:56,519
the way things are going at the Star true.

706
00:32:56,640 --> 00:32:58,359
Speaker 2: True, I was stunned. We got that one.

707
00:32:58,440 --> 00:33:01,279
Speaker 3: So the sneaky one was and Gisbergen. They only had

708
00:33:01,359 --> 00:33:02,559
him at one and a half wins. I think you

709
00:33:02,599 --> 00:33:03,759
won all four road.

710
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:07,559
Speaker 2: Courses, so that's he won all of them. They won all.

711
00:33:07,559 --> 00:33:10,559
It was the best road course. Oh yeah, yeah, he's crushing.

712
00:33:10,559 --> 00:33:13,839
Speaker 1: He's crushing Vi Lang's NASCAR futures.

713
00:33:15,680 --> 00:33:18,799
Speaker 2: Steve Merrill, good luck today. Uh and uh yeah. Steve

714
00:33:18,839 --> 00:33:21,599
is gonna be pumping out a ton of content now

715
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,480
that we're we're neck deep.

716
00:33:23,319 --> 00:33:26,119
Speaker 3: In the NFL and college football. So and he's right

717
00:33:26,160 --> 00:33:28,079
subscribe to the channel. That way you get notified when

718
00:33:28,279 --> 00:33:30,960
all of these videos are released. All right, before we

719
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,680
close out, let's take a look at Contender Series. The

720
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:37,559
full breakdown Contender Series video is up on the wager

721
00:33:37,599 --> 00:33:40,359
Talk YouTube page here, So if you want to check

722
00:33:40,400 --> 00:33:45,039
out the more in depth uh more in depth write

723
00:33:45,079 --> 00:33:47,799
ups and breakdowns, you can go do that. But let's

724
00:33:47,799 --> 00:33:50,279
pull up the odds here and I got these from

725
00:33:50,359 --> 00:33:51,240
fan duel uh.

726
00:33:51,799 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 2: I'll start at top.

727
00:33:52,759 --> 00:33:56,079
Speaker 3: I think Theo Haig can pull the upset against ol Check.

728
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:58,960
It's a bad matchup for Check. He's a striker. Haig

729
00:33:59,119 --> 00:34:02,079
is a wrestler and appler. I think he's an absolute

730
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,759
live dog. And all the favorites won last week. It's

731
00:34:04,799 --> 00:34:06,319
not gonna happen, So you gotta be looking at some

732
00:34:06,319 --> 00:34:09,000
of these underdogs. So THEO Hague is a big underdog

733
00:34:09,039 --> 00:34:11,800
that I think will do pretty well. Silva, I don't

734
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,679
trust him as a favorite. Horrible striking defense. That's kind

735
00:34:14,679 --> 00:34:19,039
of a coin flip. Eduardo Chopeline. I love this guy.

736
00:34:19,119 --> 00:34:22,039
He's super aggressive. He's fighting Anton Hoe, who's been on

737
00:34:22,079 --> 00:34:25,920
Contender Series before. Last time on OH got knocked out

738
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,199
in the first round by Lander. Kavanaugh Aileen Choppoline in

739
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,280
that one, but both guys can hit really, really hard.

740
00:34:32,559 --> 00:34:34,400
Mc millan is kind of funny and he's fighting a

741
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:38,639
guy who's only twenty one. That's Arman Serrukians protege David Imgyan,

742
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,119
So I do like Imgyan in that one.

743
00:34:41,199 --> 00:34:45,119
Speaker 2: So my five dollars play is on Contender Series. This

744
00:34:45,199 --> 00:34:45,760
is week four.

745
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,199
Speaker 3: We've hit our last two Contender Series plays and we're

746
00:34:48,199 --> 00:34:51,800
on four fight win streak in all of MMA, So

747
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,760
go grab that five dollars play. And of course we

748
00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:56,639
will be doing our live show take Down live over

749
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:58,400
the Winning in the Shadows YouTube channel. We will be

750
00:34:58,440 --> 00:35:00,800
watching all the fights on Contenders, so come on.

751
00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:01,960
Speaker 2: Over, follow along.

752
00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 3: We got live bets in Fight Predictions, write up all

753
00:35:04,880 --> 00:35:07,800
that good stuff. So all right, thank you very much

754
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,119
everyone for joining it. Great day in the chat. Thank

755
00:35:10,159 --> 00:35:12,760
you Ralph, thank you Steve. Don't forget to hit that light.

756
00:35:12,840 --> 00:35:14,800
But leave us a comment below, tell us what your

757
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,239
best bet is going to be today. We're going to

758
00:35:17,280 --> 00:35:19,800
be back tomorrow, same time, same place. Good luck on

759
00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:21,800
all your best todays. Have a great five dollars Tuesday.

760
00:35:22,079 --> 00:35:22,480
Take care