Speaker 1: And we are live.
Speaker 2: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
It is five dollars Tuesday.
Speaker 3: We are breaking down NFL Thursday Night football. We're gonna
break down some college football.
Speaker 2: MLB.
Speaker 3: Ralph Michaels is gonna join us and give us some
charts for NFL Week one. Paid attention to that. That
should help us out with some of our bets. Steamail
is gonna join us. We gotta talk Cowboys and Eagles,
and we're gonna talk a little bit of Yankees and Astros.
Let's do a quick little steam report. Johnny is recording
for a contender series and I will do Contender Series
at the end of the show, so stay tuned for that.
Let's do this quick little steam report. I'm looking at
college football, not a ton that looks like believe it
or not, the line has moved against Penn State. They
were minus forty two now they're forty.
Speaker 2: One and a half.
Speaker 3: So if you're itching to bet on Florida International, you
can do that now NC State, that line has moved
off the key number of three. That's how two and
a half half on NC State a couple of other
line moves Syracuse and Connecticut. This is a big line move.
This opened to eight and a half Syracuse as a favorite.
This has been bent down to six and a half,
so you're now getting through that key number of seven.
Money has come in on Indiana, no surprise there, over
Kennesaw State, who looked absolutely terrible. And money is coming
in on Clemson big over Troy. They're already up to
thirty four and a half. So if you want to
lay the wood with Clemson, you're gonna have to do
that pretty soon before that gets to thirty five. Other
than that, nothing too much I see. Arkansas is taking
a little bit of money. They've crossed through twenty one.
There now twenty three and a half. And due to
popular demand, let's take a look at baseball.
Speaker 2: I am not.
Speaker 3: Seeing much big line movement in baseball. Pittsburgh is taking
some money against the Dodgers. Nothing too huge on that one.
San Francisco is taking some money against Colorado, no surprise there.
We'll talk about the Giants here in a bit. Boston
has taken a little bit of money against Cleveland, but
that thing's already up to like minus two seventy five
at one of the books, and the line has flipped
in Tampa Bay Seattle, Tampa Bay open is a favorite.
Looks like Seattle is now the favorite minus one fifteen
pretty close there. Other than that, not too much of.
Speaker 2: Anything really really noteworthy.
Speaker 3: Athletics are taking a little bit of money on Saint
Louis and San Diego with you. Darvish is taking just
a bit of money. So nothing too major though, guys,
nothing nothing super super huge. And w NBA under in
New York Golden State and Phoenix has moved about a point.
They're up to minus seven and a half against in
the end of fever. So there you go for the
Steam report. All right, guys, hit the like button. You
guys know what to do. Subscribe to the Way to
Talk To YouTube channel, and let's bring in the great
Ralph Michaels and Ralph, you're famous for talking about these charts.
Speaker 2: One thing we want to do. We want to look
at these charts, we want to explain it, and then
we really want.
Speaker 3: To talk about how how do we digest it, how
do we learn from it, what can we take away
and how does it help the handicapping this week?
Speaker 2: So first off happy Tuesday. How are you, my friend,
doing great?
Speaker 4: Andy? I've got a question for you. When you stay
five dollars Tuesday, do you just want to sing the
foot long the subway foot.
Speaker 2: Long five dollar Tuesday?
Speaker 3: Yes, everyone has a five dollars Planet's up? I do,
Ralph does. We'll talk about that in just a second. Ralph,
let's get into it.
Speaker 4: Man.
Speaker 3: You're famous for charts. I want to start with the
NFL and then we'll get to college football.
Speaker 2: So say a look at these the sexy sexy charts here.
Speaker 4: You know what, Andy, as I talked to you before,
these are probably my two favorite charts. I probably have
done five hundred charts, and because of the longevity, they
make sense and they're even better percentages more recently. You
need to pay attention to them. First, we're gonna talk
about NFL Week one sides. Are their favorites or are
their dogs that are advantageous. The other thing I like
about this chart is we break down the general record.
It gets better as we get more specific, even better
with a second parameter, and even better with a third parameter.
So let's go through those. You see the middle boxes
since two thousand and nine, the right boxes since twenty twelve.
So Andy, this is blindly playing every NFL Week one
dog since two thousand and nine, you are fifty four
percent and fifty five percent since twenty twelve. If you
have a Division Week one dog sixty five percent since
nine sixty six since twenty twelve, a division home dog
seventy seven percent and eighty two percent since twenty twelve.
And take a look at the bottom division home dogs
of one and a half or more seventy nine percent
since two thousand and nine, eighty five percent since twenty twelve.
So you have better recent results, and the more parameters
you add and they make complete sense and the records
get better. Those are the kind of charts that not
only can you not ignore, you have to make sure
they're part of your NFL Week one handicapping repertoire.
Speaker 3: All right, well, we already have questioned the chatjave wanting
to know about the Panthers.
Speaker 2: So let's, uh, let's take a look at the Panthers.
Speaker 3: You're okay and see if that happens to uh to
fall into Well, it's Jacksonville.
Speaker 2: Uh so they're not playing it. We're off. I'm trying
to find some games here.
Speaker 3: So we're looking for divisional games, so the Cowboys and
the Eagles would fall.
Speaker 2: Into that category.
Speaker 3: You got the Giants in Washington that would fall into
the categories. So when we're looking at these games, this
is where this chart is applicable.
Speaker 2: Correct.
Speaker 4: The two highest percentage games are the two nfcast dogs. Correct.
But again, you know you're still talking division All division
dogs are sixty six percent. So you know, while you're
may not looking at those home dogs or the higher percentage,
it's just something that you have to add in.
Speaker 2: All right, I like it. I love these charts, Ralph there,
they're just the best.
Speaker 3: You want to say, a look at some totals here,
let's take a look at the totals chart.
Speaker 4: Well, you've heard me say this many times, Andy. Low
totals are low for a reason. High totals are high
for a reason. And this chart shows you just how
much value there is. Now, remember this, bookmakers do not
place the line on where there is equal value. Bookmakers
place the line to get equal money on both sides.
So because Joe public likes Spetding favorites and like Spetding overs,
when we have very low totals, they don't need to
make them as low as they actually should be because
they're getting equal money on both sides. The same with totals.
When they get very high, many people back off those totals.
So the chart has two sides. The left hand side
are the lowest totals forty five and under since twenty
thirteen and forty one percent and under since twenty thirteen.
The right hand side are totals forty five and a
half are higher, or forty eight and a half or higher.
But take a look especially the low totals. Andy, blindly
betting every NFL Week one total of forty five or less,
you have won sixty four point four percent of those games.
And if you blindly bet every NFL Week one total
of forty one and a half for lower, you have
won seventy one percent. That's not too shabby over a
twelve year period. So don't be afraid to bet those
low totals if you do like the under. The high
side not nearly as much fifty five and fifty seven percent,
but it still shows you value on the low totals
value on the high totals, especially week one of the season.
Speaker 3: All right, so I'm looking at the lines here the
lowest total looks like the Steelers and Jets.
Speaker 2: Thirty eight and a half does speak well for those offenses. Here.
I don't see a total that is over that forty eight.
I see a couple forty seven and.
Speaker 4: A half in Buffalo, Buffalo and Baltimore is fifty.
Speaker 2: I believe Buffalo and Baltimore. Okay, that's the Yeah, you're right,
that's the night game.
Speaker 3: I see forty seven and a half on Miami and Indianapolis.
I see forty seven and a half Cleveland and Cincinnati.
I know people are already talking about how bad Cleveland
or Cincinnati's defense is. I would have to agree with
that one as well. So, oh, Detroit Green Bay has
also moved up to forty seven and a half.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're looking at some of these. The forty
one and a half.
Speaker 3: Is the interesting one, Ralph, That is a that is
a stunning amount of games.
Speaker 2: That winning percentage is amazing.
Speaker 4: Well, again, going back to twenty thirteen, so you got
to remember we're pre COVID, it was a little bit different.
We you know, we had four preseason games instead of three,
so the game has changed, but the body of work
is still pretty consistent. Even though years I took a look.
The forty one and a half is an under I
have done very well of late.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it.
Speaker 3: Let's move to college football here real quick. We asked
you to look into the James Madison Louisville game. I
believe that it is this Friday we got. Louisville is
a pretty big favorite here, fourteen over under, fifty seven
and a half. Louisville was actually kind of sloppy in
Week one. I would expect them to clean some of
that stuff up. I get why this line is so high.
What's your take on this game?
Speaker 4: Mi Andy. I'm glad you brought that up, because when
we look at these teams, they both had FCS opponents.
Louisville was a thirty eight and a half point favorite,
James Madison was a twenty seven point favorite. And you
can say, oh, look, Louisville did not cover last week
and James Madison covered. Therefore, I'm gonna like James Madison.
But when you're playing an FCSFO, especially week one, it's
so very important to see how the game broke down. Now,
Louisville led that game forty one nothing halftime. They scored
the first five possessions and they scored a special team's touchdown.
What did brom do? He said, we played a great
first half. I'm going to empty my bench and let
all the backups play. So forty one to nothing with
starters completely clean, backups struggled. You look at James Madison.
While they did cover, it was only thirty one to
ten into the fourth quarter and they needed to score
fourteen points in the fourth quarter to cover that game.
So final results do not tell you how the game
was played. If your coach is resting starters, I will
say this. I am a James Madison fan. You know,
Bob Chesney took over from a James Madison team that
went eleven and two, and Signetti went to Indiana with
I think what forty players from James Madison, so he
basically had to restart fresh he was at Holy Cross.
He brings in the rush attack. They rushed for one
ninety two to four point eight last year. They lust
for three hundred and thirty one yards and seven yards
per ki in Week one. They have a returning quarterback
who's excellent and he is mobile, so that does play
into the run game. Now they're gonna run the ball
but that does concern me against Louisville. You look at
Louisville's front seven, five returning starters. One of the starters
that did not start last year started thirteen games the
year before. When it's hurt, I count that as a
returning starter. Make it six. And another starter is a
five game starter from Coastal Carolina last year. One of
the best front sevens in the conference. And I think
they can slow that rush attack. My numbers actually have
this at thirteen. Again, my power ratings the first few
weeks of the year, I don't really use them. I
do them and monitor and see what happens. This one
surprise me though, Andy Friday games in week two. The
road team is actually eleven and five sixty nine percent
since twenty and eleven. And why does that's a prize me?
Because you would think early in the year, you have
a short week, you have less practice going, less practice time,
going on the road, a day less, you're out of
their routine. But again, away teams have done well. And
I do want to point this out. When both teams
won their opener by twenty plus games, the over under
is fifty eight percent to the under. The offenses were
not tested, and they certainly will be tested this week
as well as the defenses. With all that said, the
James Madison rush attack the Louisville front seven, I'm gonna
go under first half James Madison team total. Now, James
Madison team total is twenty one and a half for
the game, so it's gonna be slightly less the numbers
out now yet, But as long as you get over ten,
if you're getting under ten and a half or under eleven,
I do like this as a best bet. If the
James Madison first half total comes out under ten, I
want no part of it, but I'm ninety nine percent
sure it's going to be over that number. Those numbers
will start getting posted on Wednesday. You guys know what
to do if the number is correct. Team total James
Madison first half. As long as it's ten or more,
we're going to go under first half.
Speaker 2: I like that breakdown. That's that's a sneaky way to
look at that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of times we forget about the halves
and the team totals, and the team totals and the halves.
It's so nice to have all these sports books that
we have at our disposal. Now to give us those lines.
So great breakdown, Ralph, I really really like that one.
Speaker 2: It's five dollars Tuesday. What do you have up?
Speaker 4: Well, Andy, I don't have a baseball play today. I've
been doing no run first innings and there was not
value today, so I'm not going to force the play
and pass. But i have a very special five dollars
NFL play. NFL plays rated four percent or five percent,
football plays, college football NFL four percent and five percent,
nineteen and three eighty five percent, my teasers rated four
percent or five percent, seven and oh one percent and
fourteen and one ninety one percent. Get that play five
dollars and remember, even though the play does not go today,
the price goes back the full price at Wednesday. So
any football packages you want to wager talk that are
five dollars, make sure you grab them before midnight.
Speaker 2: Love it, love it five dollars football play.
Speaker 3: Incredible record there, Ralph, thank you so much for joining us,
Good luck continued success, and thank you for sharing about
the No one first inning. You're You're absolutely right, no
need to force anything, especially when the when the line
isn't there.
Speaker 2: So Ralph Michaels, everyone take care of Ralph. Have a
great day, my friend. All right, guys, it.
Speaker 3: Is five dollars Tuesday, best value in the industry. Every
capper at wager talk has a top play up for
just five bucks. That's the same bets I'm betting myself.
We have our Contender Series best bet that is up.
For example, we hit our last two on Contender Series.
I've told you guys, every Tuesday, my Contender Series best
bet is going to be five bucks. You can stack
as many handicappers as you want. Again, bet responsibly. Don't
have too much of your bankroll in play, but it's
a great way to try out a new handicapper or
your favorite handicapper. Five dollars Tuesday, best deal in the industry.
No reason, not no reason not get some five dollar plays.
What a great Tuesday. Amazing Tuesday. Five dollars over at
wages doal dot com. Let's go to all around the world.
Let's talk about some games and some free plays. Here
we mentioned the Giants and the Rockies. The Giants might
just want to have. Several Haiti cappers have this listed
as a free play, and it makes sense. The Giants
won eight out of their last nine games, six of
those wins.
Speaker 2: Were by the run line.
Speaker 3: They beat Colorado eight to two yesterday, and Freeland is
pitching for the Rockies.
Speaker 2: Six point three six r a at home.
Speaker 3: Yikes, I see team totals are pretty popular on the Giants.
Speaker 2: Their bats have been read. How I get it.
Speaker 3: We're gonna go to the fever at the Mercury. Lexi
Hall over three and a half rebounds. She's went over
in eight out of the last ten games. In the
last two games against Phoenix, she has six and five rebounds. Chris,
can we see the picture of Lexi Hall. Yeah, that's
what Lexie Hall looks like these days. She got a
massive collision in a game, she fought through it. She's
still playing with those two big black guys. That's the
girl I want to take over rebounds. She's gonna get
in there and fight Lexi Hall and her two black guys.
Speaker 2: Let's catch that three and a half over rebounds.
Speaker 3: Amazing, amazing, and she's a great follow on social media too.
By the way, Cowboys at the Eagles, let's do a
proper Jalen Hurts no interception. This thing is juicy, but
it makes total sense. He's thrown two interceptions in the
last sixteen games. This is just one of these rinse
and repeat plays. There's several quarterbacks that just don't throw interceptions,
and Hurts is one of them. He has not thrown
an interception at home against Dallas in his career. So
we're gonna lay the juice and we're gonna take Jalen
Hurts no interception, all right. See my buddy Steve Merrill
is here. Of course, Steve has not one R, two
RS and one L in his name.
Speaker 2: Happy five dollars Tuesday, Steve, How are.
Speaker 1: You get on the chapa? I don't know if you
could hear this. Right as we started, there's like a
heavy military chop for going over, so hopefully the he's
not back.
Speaker 2: Wow, I can't hear. That's amazing right.
Speaker 1: Here, and otherwise I look silly saying the tapaday abe
get in the chapa. Pro from military helping me out
here on the East Coast. Got Steve Merril live live
from Fort ben U, live from a bunker somewhere near you.
Speaker 2: Steve.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna get as you know, and I'm always
trying to get canceled. I'm saying redskins here, I got
redskins stuff everywhere. But there's a great two black eye
joke I heard years ago that I won't stay With's
probably rubbing a lot of people wrong way, but it's.
Speaker 2: I know, I know this joke, and you know I'm
trying to I know this joke.
Speaker 1: Like sports orient Like, what do you tell likes to
but she doesn't get two rebounds in the game. Not
you've already reound?
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, yeah, yes, you.
Speaker 1: Can do it that way. Is that okay? I'd like
to know that joke. Yeah, yeah, I'll never tell that joke.
It's awful.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 3: Let's uh, well, let's talk Cowboys and Eagles. I know
you're gonna break down Yankees and Astros for it, but uh,
NFL kicks off. We got the Cowboys, got the Eagles.
Eagles big favorite.
Speaker 2: Over under sitting at a pretty vanilla forty seven and
a half.
Speaker 3: I love the Eagles this year. I think they're under
the radar. I've never heard I've never seen a Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Team the radar. Yes, nobody likes them.
Speaker 3: It just feels it feels like everyone's out on the Eagles,
and I don't get it. I mean, they're big favorite
starts of the books obviously, like them.
Speaker 2: I love the Eagles. What do you think of this game?
Speaker 1: Fascinating game to talk about for so many reasons. Lots
of angles. I'm gonna give you a free play in
this Eagles Cowboys Thursday night game, but also some big
picture stuff with survivor pools and just ways if you
do want to play one side or the other, how
I think you should attack it. So this is a
great kickoff game to start the NFL regular season this
Thursday night at eight twenty eastern Dallas at Philadelphia. And
as our good friend Ralph Michaels will tell you, divisional
dogs do well in Week one in the NFL, and
it makes a lot of sense for several reasons. I've
always said that Week one of the NFL is kind
of Week five of the preseason. I can't say that
anymore because we only have three weeks of the preseason,
but you can make an argument it's even more preseason
is since there's only three preseason games and not four.
We do see some bizarre results in Week one across
the board that don't always translate to the rest of
the season. So it makes sense that divisional dogs, teams
that know each other well taking the points is probably
the way to go now. As Ralph Michaels also tell you,
the divisional home dogs have been the sweet spot, not
as much road dogs. And we also know that Thursday
night favorites Thursday night home teams in general have been
to play. If you just play the better team on
Thursday night games, you normally do well. And there's a
couple of reasons why that works. First of alltight game,
and whenever you're getting two teams in a focused spot,
the better team normally has the edge. But the reason
it really works, in my opinion, during the regular season
is because of the short turnaround. It's normally just three
days of rest and then travel. It's just two days
of prep for the road team. That's not the case
obviously here in this week one opener. So I am
more inclined to give Dallas a little bit more of
a chance in this game, and I'll take the contrarian
call here with the Cowboys at plus eight. Also, it's
ring night. I assume it's ring night when they always
give the championship rings. That could be a little bit
of a distraction, and I think Dallas could be a
little bit better than people expect this season. Everyone's big
on the Commanders, no one's big on the Giants, But
I think Dallas is a team nobody's talking about in
the division that could maybe sneak up and give the
Eagles a run. And we'll find out on Thursday night.
But something else I want to point out about this
game as well, as if you do play the Eagles,
you're probably better off taking them down to minus two.
It does set up as a pretty good teaser selection.
Giving them is a straight up win situation, defending Super
Bowl champs on that strong home field. So I like
Dallas plus eight eight. But if you do play the Eagles,
you might want to consider the teaser option down to
minus two. But I will say Week one NFL teasers
probably aren't the best long term investment. We don't tease
preseason games because of the randomness, the softer lines, and
once again, if I think Week one of the NFL
is semi preseason still as far as the results, teasers
probably aren't a huge advantage play this week either. But
if you do like Philly, you're probably better off getting
it down to minus two. Tie that up with one
of the Sunday games. I'm looking at the board now
you could take the Jets two and a half three
up to eight eight and a half nine. You've also
got another eight point favorite of the Broncos. You can
get them down to two minus tennessee at home. And
by the way, speaking of the Broncos being minus eight
and the Eagles being minus eight, this will be one
of the biggest Survivor picks this week, I would assume,
because they're the biggest favorite on the board. And this
is something else I want to talk about here, very
unique situation. Since most Survivor contests allow you to enter
I would assume up until kickoff on Sunday at one
o'clock Eastern, lots of ways you can play this. If
the Cowboys do pull the outright upset as an eight
point dollar, that's going to lock a good amount of
people out of their Survivor pools. Now, will they re up? Perhaps,
But if you've been on the fence about entering some
Survivor pools, I want to wait to see if Dallas
pulls the upset, because you're gonna probably have about twenty
to thirty percent of your competition already eliminate. It might
be a good reason to re up or even get
some more entries in your Survivor pool. Maybe just stay
away from Philly in this game Thursday. I hope that
Dallas pulls that big upset and then maybe sneak in
and get some overlay value in Survivor pools on Sunday morning.
Speaker 3: I love playing in NFL Survivors, and I don't know
why I've never won one, and I always get mad
and every year I'm like, I'm never doing this again,
and then of course I'm entering a bit more so.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Colin says he.
Speaker 3: Likes the Cardinals for the Survivor pick. I'm guessing that
fading the Saints, that Titans Broncos game, Cowboys Eagles.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's got disaster written all over it. One of
those teams is going to lose and knock. Like you said,
thirty percent of the people out.
Speaker 1: So well that thing. And I mean, the Saints are
supposed to be the worst team right there, six and
a half point home dog to Arizona. But like I said,
if week one is random compared to the other weeks,
this is where you get some great I think, a
really good strategy. By the way, I ask some people
have been asking me to do a Survivor pick video.
I'm playing with the idea. It's tricky obviously, because you know,
once you get eliminated or whatnot, and a lot of
people are out. But I think a good rule of
thumb is maybe just kind of always never take the
number one pick and you can kind of figure out
what it is every week. And we saw that work
so well last year. The Bengals were one of them.
What was it the Lions lost? Was it to the
Niners in Week three? Whenever the Lions lost in Week three,
By that point, like seventy to eighty percent of people
were out of their contest, and then it was nothing
but chalk, And as you know from as a better
it was like the most chalk heavy run we've seen
an NFL history for like the next six weeks through October.
But so few people were so alive in their contests
that those that were just went on massive runs. You
got it. Like I said earlier, you don't necessarily take
the Cowboys, but you also maybe don't play the Eagles.
You just hope the Dallas wins out. I did not,
you know, a third of year competition out before the weekend.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's one of the ways that you almost have
to play Survivors. You can't play the one that everyone
else plays, because even if they win, you don't knock
anybody out.
Speaker 2: You're just moving.
Speaker 1: Along with the crowd, like right, even if you win,
you're gonna chop it with one hundred other people.
Speaker 2: So it's like that's exactly right.
Speaker 1: Yeah, game theory. We call that game theory. I love it.
Speaker 3: Speaking of lack of game theory, did Bell Belichick have
the worst week?
Speaker 1: So, you know, I was thinking about the free play
videos did really well this week. I had a hot
My simulation, by the way, had to Ohio State by eight
and a half points, and even I thought that was crazy.
I kicked the computer a couple of times and then
realized why am I kicking computer? It costs a lot
of money. But you know, they won by seven and
when people in the comments are start saying there's no
way they can win by more than a touchdown, I
started realizing how public Texas was on Saturday, so a
nice free play video play there fading the number one Longhorns. Oh,
by the way, Booger McFarlane, whatever his name is, I'm
watching the games on Saturday and they're showing the highlights
of that Saturday night. He goes and they're showing the
Penn State highlights. They're romping whoever it was, Marshall, whoever
they played, and they go He's like the likely new
number one with Texas going down Penn State. I'm like,
how would you put them ahead of Ohio State, who
was two in the coaches poll with twenty first plays vote.
I don't know, and I haven't seen the polls. I
guess they haven't come out yet, but like, that was insane,
I mean, just personally. But my point is, we had
South Carolina Sunday, we had Miami Florida in the free
play video. I'd really have done well with the free
play videos. And I had TCU last night. I had
him by six and a half in my simulation, and
I didn't let the three and a half scare me.
They've gone from a one and a half point dog
to a three and a half point favorite, and Belichick
was probably getting some public love, but he's not out
there playing the games. And something I told one of
the people in my comments was that, you know, don't
forget he didn't have a very good start in the NFL.
With his hit coaching career exactly thirty four years ago
to the date, on September first, nineteen ninety one, he
was with the Browns. So you know, again you had
Tom Brady best quarterback ever. Perhaps I don't think he
has that at U and see it. He was exposed
last night though. We'll see what the lines look like
going forward, though, but you know, we'll probably get an
overreaction now the other way.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, Oh, at Penn State played Nevada, I did
I think I didnt Novata?
Speaker 1: I know somebody somebody there.
Speaker 3: I took Novada over six and a half on the
team total cash it baby, they got to a lot.
Speaker 1: Of teams get to seven by the way. I lost. Hey, hey,
look true full transparency. I know you love it. The
free play videos did really well in the top twenty
five games and whatnot. The best bets could have done
extremely well. I had three losses this week in which
and the opponents scored seven points or zero points. Three losses. Now,
if you hold your opponent to seven or zero, what
do you think your long term win? Probably like eighty
or ninety percent, even with big favorites. I don't care.
Like just insane, how sharp some of these big numbers
were this week and just some backdoor covers. Statistically felt
like we had the right side and almost all those games,
but it was pretty wild.
Speaker 2: Well, let's moved to.
Speaker 3: Major League Baseball here, Steve Yankees and Astros, big two
big names here. Pretty close to a pick them Yankee
slight favorite, Freed going for Yankees, Valdez for the Astros.
Over under sitting at eight feels kind of low, but
then again, you look at these pitchers. Freed was kind
of slump a little bit. He's pitching the last time out,
had much better stuff there. What do you make of
this Yankees Astros matchup today?
Speaker 1: Yeah, a huge game tonight on Tuesday, National TV. This
is your TBS National TV game and True TV. They're
putting it on both networks at eight o'clock Eastern Tuesday night.
So this is the spotlight game for Tuesday Baseball. Yankees
at Astros, and some high scoring games yesterday on Monday,
on Labor Day. These teams were working on Labor Day.
In fact, I had an under best bet, My one
best bet in baseball last night was the Oriols game
under and that stayed under. But you look at some
of these other scores Mets Tigers eighteen runs, eleven runs
in the White Sox game, fourteen runs in the Athletics game,
thirteen in the Cubs game. We had twelve in the
Texas game. I'll come those dig go to exter innings.
I'm aware of that. But still a lot of double
digit results. So the teams in general are hitting the
ball pretty good right now. Even though September is here,
baseball is still in full top throttle, full effect. And
I do like the over in this game tonight as
well on Tuesday, for a few reasons. First of all,
line value, it is a low total here. I think
it's too low for two very capable offenses. And the
reason we get an eight here is because we got
a pair of lefties on the mound, Freed and Valdez,
two the better pitchers in baseball to veteran strong pitchers.
But one thing I like to look at in September
is guys that maybe are fading a little bit, And
now both these guys can go the distance free through
one hundred and seventy seventy four innings last year in
the regular season, He's at one hundred and sixty two
this year. But it does look like he's wearing down.
He has a three point one ERA overall this year,
but over his last seven starts since late July a
five point zero ERA, and he's coming off back to
back good outings. He was horrendous before that. He's given
up just one run, one er and run of the
last thirteen innings and two starts he stills in the
era BOM five is last seven, So I still think
he's a little dicey and Franbur Valdez. We always joke
he gets weaker as the season goes on because he
can't cheat as much. But this is an era of
a three point two on the season, four point four
going back to late July over his last seven starts
as well, and both these guys are only about a
game or two from hitting their innings pitch total last year.
I think even if just one of them is off tonight,
we can get over this fairly low total of over eight.
And I'm willing to bet one of them probably doesn't
have a great outing, especially since they both are coming
off strong showings and their last start, but Valdez did
it at home against the Rockies. Not going to read
too much into that. And I know, yeah, that last
great start by Fried was at home against not my
Washington Nationals to the worst offensive teams in baseball. Big
turnaround here tonight. We've seen this total go from seven
and a half up to eight. I still like the value,
and we're actually getting at eight over minus one zho five.
Now take a look at the Yankees and Astros over
the total eight o'clock Eastern on TBS National TV tonight
on Tuesday.
Speaker 2: Boys shots fired at Valdez man.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's just too much. That's just too He actually
is a pretty good picture. He might be one of
the fear that don't need to change in the morning
on that Gastros team. But still just it's easy pickings.
It's like shooting fish in a barrel.
Speaker 2: I know, I know, sometimes a low hanging fruit does
taste the bit it.
Speaker 1: Was so would I don't think we can say shooting
fish in a barrel either. Maybe that don't get me canceled.
I'm trying so hard making fun of Valdez.
Speaker 2: Trying professional professional comedian Steve Merrill bringing all this.
Speaker 1: Trying to get some I actually had a good one.
I saw. This isn't an original. I think I saw
it on Instagram like the three four Days. I gotta
go back and find it. I should have like screenshoted it,
but I meant to come on to Day Andy, but
the whole like other thing threw me off and say,
like breaking NFL news in Week one, Travis Kelcey is pregnant.
I saw that meme the other day and I was dying.
The way they did it was just like the picture
of him from the side and oh my goodness, I
don't know. It was pretty good.
Speaker 3: Again, poor Travis Kelcey doing nothing wrong, minding his own beds.
Speaker 1: My question is, could you played the first couple months
and then he asked to sit out? Like, how does
this work? We've never had an NFL guy pregnant in season.
Speaker 2: It's five dollars Tuesday, Steve, what do you have of
a wage? You talk?
Speaker 1: So actually two five dollars Tuesday specials. We still have
my top NFL Future's best bet up for just five dollars. Now,
it's been up all summer. I know many of you
have already gotten this play. The line value is still there.
It's my top NFL over under season wins best bet,
and it's available for just five dollars, and also I
will a top Baseball best bet for five dollars Tuesday
tonight as well, and don't forget about the free play.
I'm very selective, one to three best bets on average,
which means that last cut just a bit outside from
making the card. The best bet card goes up as
a bonus free play, and I do have a free
play opinion tonight in the National League for you in
your late night game between the Giants and Rocky, So
get that Giants Rockies free play right now, and then
check out the five dollars best bet Steve Merrill waittertalk
dot com and get there quicker with shortcut wt dot
buzz slash sm and don't forget to like the videos
thumbs up comment below, subscribe and click that bell for
an instant alert here on wager Talk TV, because I
will have a ton of free play college and pro
football videos this week, including my Top twenty five college
video on Fridays and also my NFL Faith the Public
debut for Week one this weekend Saturday here on wager
Talk TV.
Speaker 2: Great work, Steve, Did you catch you in the NASCAR race?
Speaker 1: I saw the highlights, I did see the final lap
this time, and I was like, man, this has passed
me by. We got guys winning in the playoffs. He
never would have made the playoffs in years past.
Speaker 3: It's wild, man, It's the setting up for someone very,
very bizarre to win this champion.
Speaker 1: Do you have any futures out there, Andy, Do you
ever play NASCAR futures?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: We had Michael McDowell to not win a race in
the regular season, Kyle Busch under one and a half wins.
Speaker 1: I don't that was solid. He might not There was
a chance he might not race two races all year
the way things are going at the Star true.
Speaker 2: True, I was stunned. We got that one.
Speaker 3: So the sneaky one was and Gisbergen. They only had
him at one and a half wins. I think you
won all four road.
Speaker 2: Courses, so that's he won all of them. They won all.
It was the best road course. Oh yeah, yeah, he's crushing.
Speaker 1: He's crushing Vi Lang's NASCAR futures.
Speaker 2: Steve Merrill, good luck today. Uh and uh yeah. Steve
is gonna be pumping out a ton of content now
that we're we're neck deep.
Speaker 3: In the NFL and college football. So and he's right
subscribe to the channel. That way you get notified when
all of these videos are released. All right, before we
close out, let's take a look at Contender Series. The
full breakdown Contender Series video is up on the wager
Talk YouTube page here, So if you want to check
out the more in depth uh more in depth write
ups and breakdowns, you can go do that. But let's
pull up the odds here and I got these from
fan duel uh.
Speaker 2: I'll start at top.
Speaker 3: I think Theo Haig can pull the upset against ol Check.
It's a bad matchup for Check. He's a striker. Haig
is a wrestler and appler. I think he's an absolute
live dog. And all the favorites won last week. It's
not gonna happen, So you gotta be looking at some
of these underdogs. So THEO Hague is a big underdog
that I think will do pretty well. Silva, I don't
trust him as a favorite. Horrible striking defense. That's kind
of a coin flip. Eduardo Chopeline. I love this guy.
He's super aggressive. He's fighting Anton Hoe, who's been on
Contender Series before. Last time on OH got knocked out
in the first round by Lander. Kavanaugh Aileen Choppoline in
that one, but both guys can hit really, really hard.
Mc millan is kind of funny and he's fighting a
guy who's only twenty one. That's Arman Serrukians protege David Imgyan,
So I do like Imgyan in that one.
Speaker 2: So my five dollars play is on Contender Series. This
is week four.
Speaker 3: We've hit our last two Contender Series plays and we're
on four fight win streak in all of MMA, So
go grab that five dollars play. And of course we
will be doing our live show take Down live over
the Winning in the Shadows YouTube channel. We will be
watching all the fights on Contenders, so come on.
Speaker 2: Over, follow along.
Speaker 3: We got live bets in Fight Predictions, write up all
that good stuff. So all right, thank you very much
everyone for joining it. Great day in the chat. Thank
you Ralph, thank you Steve. Don't forget to hit that light.
But leave us a comment below, tell us what your
best bet is going to be today. We're going to
be back tomorrow, same time, same place. Good luck on
all your best todays. Have a great five dollars Tuesday.
Take care