WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin gets rejected off the two hundred day moving average,

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<v Speaker 1>showing some signs of weakness. Is it time to panic?

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<v Speaker 1>As bitcoin, crypto, and the stock market continued their down trend.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll give you the details and some charts and where

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<v Speaker 1>I think things are going to go next. Let's get

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<v Speaker 1>into it. Hey, everybody, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcasts.

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<v Speaker 1>You're home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host,

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<v Speaker 1>Tony Edward. On your way in. Please let that subscribe

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<v Speaker 1>button as well as a thumbsup button and leave a

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<v Speaker 1>comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such

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<v Speaker 1>as Spotify or Apple, please leave a five star rating

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<v Speaker 1>and review. Folks, we of course have to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and the markets because right now Bitcoin is trading

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<v Speaker 1>at eighty and fifty eight dollars. It has rejected off

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<v Speaker 1>the two hundred day moving average, which we thought had

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<v Speaker 1>been reclaimed. But this is along the lines of the

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<v Speaker 1>caution that I gave when the rally started and Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>went above the two hundred day moving average. I said,

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<v Speaker 1>this could be simply a dead cat bounce, just a

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<v Speaker 1>small relief rally, and we go back and test the lows.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems like that's what we're doing. However, bitcoin does

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<v Speaker 1>not hold key support levels here, we could be in

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<v Speaker 1>trouble because when you look at what's happening overall with

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<v Speaker 1>the stock market, like the SMP five hundred, the Dow Jones,

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<v Speaker 1>even in NASDAC, they are also doing the same thing here.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is not a good sign. And hopefully the

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<v Speaker 1>bottom is around the corner. Different analysts are saying, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we could possibly go down to the seventies and that

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<v Speaker 1>is like seventy five K, find the bottom there and

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<v Speaker 1>then bounce. Some people are saying, maybe comes after April second,

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<v Speaker 1>when some of the tariff news which is causing the

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<v Speaker 1>macro uncertainty is behind us, So that could be a

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<v Speaker 1>thesis there, but we have to wait and see, and

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<v Speaker 1>we have to watch the charts very closely. Now. Some

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<v Speaker 1>folks are saying, what bitcoin is forming here is a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of a wike off accumulation and to drop below

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<v Speaker 1>eighty five K is a bit of trying to shake

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<v Speaker 1>people out because the narrative is out there of the tariffs,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we'll find the bottom and start moving ourselves

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<v Speaker 1>back up. But we got to be carefully here, guys. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>do I believe we are in a bear market. Do

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<v Speaker 1>I believe the bull market's over? No, But that doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean that if bitcoin continues on the trend it's on

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<v Speaker 1>and it doesn't find the bottom soon, that we can't

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<v Speaker 1>enter a bear market. So right now, the signals and

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<v Speaker 1>the data is showing me just a retest, right I

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<v Speaker 1>look at the RSI, these are things we've seen before,

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<v Speaker 1>and even in bull markets, we've seen bitcoin go below

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<v Speaker 1>to two hundred day moving average. Just look at what

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<v Speaker 1>happened last summer. I mean that was really rough, right

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<v Speaker 1>because it stayed under there for a while, and it

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<v Speaker 1>actually had a false breakout, went back down to the Japanese

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<v Speaker 1>yen carry trade. It stayed down there for a while

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<v Speaker 1>through August September until October when we started to break out,

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<v Speaker 1>and then we had a very strong run up in

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<v Speaker 1>Q four. So my hope is that it doesn't last

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<v Speaker 1>as long as what took place last summer, guys, because

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<v Speaker 1>that was pre brutal. But hopefully this is the final

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<v Speaker 1>retest of the lows. Then we have the true breakout

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<v Speaker 1>and once again, with the macro factor of April second

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<v Speaker 1>and the tariffs that Trump has been talking about, they

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<v Speaker 1>finally get to some sort of conclusion there and there

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<v Speaker 1>is not as much uncertainty in the markets and we

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<v Speaker 1>can start moving up. But the other factors which are

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<v Speaker 1>very good and look bullish is that the DXY continues

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<v Speaker 1>to break down. This is very good for risk assets.

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<v Speaker 1>In addition, global liquidity it continues to rise. So these

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<v Speaker 1>are factors that are very good in a bull market

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<v Speaker 1>because it means it's still risk on and that assets

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<v Speaker 1>will find your bottom and keep moving up. In addition,

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<v Speaker 1>I always like to look at what the whales are doing,

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<v Speaker 1>the guys who really move the market right, And we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing a big, strong uptick here the data some sentiment

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<v Speaker 1>of bitcoin being accumulated. There was a bit of a

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<v Speaker 1>slowdown over the past month, in fact, a bit of

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<v Speaker 1>a decline coming out of Q four twenty twenty four.

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<v Speaker 1>Now look at this big uptick. That's a very good

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<v Speaker 1>signed the whales. They are buying up the dip and

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<v Speaker 1>they are anticipating higher prices. In addition, other signals that

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<v Speaker 1>have called the top, like the bigcoin pic cycle top indicator,

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<v Speaker 1>nowhere close to signaling the top. And then you have

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<v Speaker 1>this CBBI indicator, which uses a variety of metrics and

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<v Speaker 1>aggregates them and formulates a score. It is not showing

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<v Speaker 1>the top end. So I still believe we are in

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<v Speaker 1>a bullmarket, not my emotions. Based on the data. There's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a lot of people coming out and

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<v Speaker 1>saying it's over, this thing is done, look at what's happening, right.

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<v Speaker 1>They're very emotional. There's also people shorting the market, so

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<v Speaker 1>you've got to make sure you filter out the results

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<v Speaker 1>people who just say it's over and they try to

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<v Speaker 1>put fear out there because they want you to sell

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<v Speaker 1>because they're shorting. Right, But we are still in a

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<v Speaker 1>bull market based on the data. So I am not panicking,

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<v Speaker 1>but I am concerned that I'll leave it at that.

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<v Speaker 1>I am concerned, right, guys, because I want to see

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<v Speaker 1>bigco find a bottom soon and get out of this zone.

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<v Speaker 1>This is not a good thing to be below the

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred day moving average. Nothing good happens below the

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred day moving average. As I've been saying, right

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<v Speaker 1>when the times when we are in a bullmarket, we

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<v Speaker 1>are above it. If you look at when the bear

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<v Speaker 1>market happens, we are in an extended down trend below it.

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<v Speaker 1>So Bitcoin fingers crossed it finds the bottom. As always,

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<v Speaker 1>the market moves a bitcoin and you'll see the all

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<v Speaker 1>coins follow, because right now the all coins are just

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<v Speaker 1>gonna bleed out and follow bitcoins lead. So ETHEREUM, XRP,

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<v Speaker 1>whatever it is, are not going to show signs of

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<v Speaker 1>strength right now until the macro uncertainty of tariffs are

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<v Speaker 1>out of the way, and then we can continue to

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<v Speaker 1>bullmarket because the stock market is also seeing just a

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<v Speaker 1>ton of SELT pressure here. So that's where I'm att guys, concerned,

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<v Speaker 1>not panicking. Bull Market's not over, but if we see

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<v Speaker 1>in a week's time that this thing is still going down,

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<v Speaker 1>bigcoin's going out to sixty K. I'm gonna say, guys,

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<v Speaker 1>I am a bit worried now, right, but not there yet,

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<v Speaker 1>all right, guys. Some other news that we got coming

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<v Speaker 1>out is that the Say Foundation SEI explores takeover of

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<v Speaker 1>bankrupt twenty three and meters in the boldest DCI bet yet.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is fascinating. I can't think of, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>any major crypto company or token project like Say that

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<v Speaker 1>has gone out and bought a traditional company and looking

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<v Speaker 1>to start a new aspect of crypto where you're you know,

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<v Speaker 1>putting blockchain into a specific industry like what twenty three

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<v Speaker 1>and me does, So let me give you some details.

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<v Speaker 1>One day after twenty three and meter received clearance from

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<v Speaker 1>a judge to put itself up for sale, the SAY

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<v Speaker 1>Foundation said it is in the process of placing its

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<v Speaker 1>boldest DCID bet yet by exploring the acquisition of the

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<v Speaker 1>genetic testing company. Here's a quote. We believe user data

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<v Speaker 1>sovereignty is a matter of national security, the Safe Foundation said,

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<v Speaker 1>which supports the Layer one blockchain, SAY wrote Thursday in

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<v Speaker 1>an expost. When an American biotech pioneer faces bankruptcy, personal

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<v Speaker 1>geonomic data of millions become vulnerable to parties that may

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<v Speaker 1>not share the same values of transparency and open access.

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<v Speaker 1>These SAY Foundation says, this is to defend the genetic

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<v Speaker 1>privacy of fifteen million Americans and ensure their data is

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<v Speaker 1>protected for generations to come. So this is fascinating and

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<v Speaker 1>could be the start of a trend where we see

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of crypto companies buy up a dyeing or

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<v Speaker 1>bankrupt companies in different industries and an inject blockchain and

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<v Speaker 1>help renew them, bring life back, and even change your

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<v Speaker 1>business model a bit. So this could be another way

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<v Speaker 1>that a blockchain in crypto tech is used in different

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<v Speaker 1>industries and it just creates another boom. So I often

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<v Speaker 1>talk about my sponsor Propy, which is disrupting the real

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<v Speaker 1>estate market, and you have other folks who are doing

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<v Speaker 1>depen and now you have DSi. This could be really interesting,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, disrupting the healthcare science, medical industry in introducing

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<v Speaker 1>blockchain in different ways. So this is fascinating something to

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<v Speaker 1>keep an eye on. I'm going to watch this closely

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<v Speaker 1>because I don't hold to say token, but if they're

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<v Speaker 1>making moves like this and they're looking to open up

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<v Speaker 1>different utility and things like that, I may have to

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<v Speaker 1>look at adding it to my portfolio. Now, we got

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<v Speaker 1>news here that hashkey both Sarah to launch tokenized money

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<v Speaker 1>market ETFs as part of Hong Kong's project and Symbol initiative.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're seeing globally the race for tokenization, guys, tokenized

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<v Speaker 1>assets RWA, and Hong Kong, which is controlled by China,

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<v Speaker 1>I believe is the testing ground for a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>crypto and web three projects. They have their own ETFs,

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<v Speaker 1>and I believe China is going to open up crypto

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<v Speaker 1>ETF investing to their citizens in the mainland very soon.

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<v Speaker 1>And that could be the catalyst that comes for the

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<v Speaker 1>next run up. We'll have to wait and see. But guys,

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<v Speaker 1>I am just seeing adoption globally and that makes me

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<v Speaker 1>very bullish. So Hashkei Group, an Asia based crypto financial

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<v Speaker 1>services firm, is collaborating with Bosara Asset Management to launch

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<v Speaker 1>what they claim to be the world's first money market

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<v Speaker 1>exchange traded funds next month. In a statement released Friday,

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<v Speaker 1>the duo said they plan to launch tokenized shares for

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<v Speaker 1>two existing money market ETFs, the both Sarah HKD Money

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<v Speaker 1>Market ETF and the Bossera USD Money Market ETF. The

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved the two

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<v Speaker 1>tokenized ETFs. Such tokenized ETFs are part of a larger

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<v Speaker 1>project Ensemble Sandbox initiated by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority

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<v Speaker 1>the de facto Central Bank, to explore tokenization of real

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<v Speaker 1>world assets. So the Central Bank is saying, hey, you

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<v Speaker 1>got the green light, guys, I hope you see what's

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<v Speaker 1>happening here. It's not just the United States. This thing

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<v Speaker 1>is happening globally and a lot of the world superpowers

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<v Speaker 1>are getting involved. So hashke Exchange will serve as the

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<v Speaker 1>primary distribution channel for the tokenized ETFs, enabling investors to

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<v Speaker 1>gain exposure or direct exposure to high quality money market

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<v Speaker 1>instruments by tokens, the company said. DeFi investors will then

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<v Speaker 1>have another tool to balance their yields to mitigate market risk.

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<v Speaker 1>The company said, So notice how this opens up DeFi.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you recall just this past week, Fidelity they

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<v Speaker 1>are looking to tokenize a money market fund as well.

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<v Speaker 1>That news was announced. They're looking to do it on

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<v Speaker 1>etherorem so they're following Blackrock. Black Rock was the leader here.

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<v Speaker 1>So the competitions on game theory is playing out here.

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<v Speaker 1>Here's a quote. Bringing money market ETFs on chain through

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<v Speaker 1>blockchain technology is a crucial step for traditional finance to

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<v Speaker 1>embrace web three, Zao Feng, chairman and CEO of Hashke

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<v Speaker 1>Group said in this statement. Last month, OSL, another regulated

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<v Speaker 1>crypto exchange operated in Hong Kong, launched a tokenized mutual

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<v Speaker 1>fund China am see HKD digital money market fund. Wow,

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<v Speaker 1>that's a mouthful. We don't have details on which blockchain

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<v Speaker 1>you're using, so that's something I'm going to research and

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<v Speaker 1>see if we get the details there. But guys. The

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<v Speaker 1>global race towards blockchain and cryptos here and as I've

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<v Speaker 1>been saying, the economies, the markets, in the governments will

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<v Speaker 1>be running on blockchain. Guys. This is the future. So

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<v Speaker 1>this is why we're here taking our bets. This is

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<v Speaker 1>why we're stummaching through the volatility, the roller coaster ride.

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<v Speaker 1>This is part of it, right with investing, as you

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<v Speaker 1>all know, it requires a lot of patience and you've

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<v Speaker 1>got to do your research. This is not playing the lottery,

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<v Speaker 1>This is not going to the casino. This you have

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<v Speaker 1>to put some effort in. You have to educate yourself

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<v Speaker 1>and pay attention to what's happening. And obviously that's why

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<v Speaker 1>you watch and listen to this podcast and not only

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<v Speaker 1>this one, but others, and you make sure you're reading

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<v Speaker 1>up and you're paying attention to what's happening, because this

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<v Speaker 1>is an opportunity of a lifetime. But as with the

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<v Speaker 1>nature of markets, they are affected by external factors as well,

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<v Speaker 1>like macro factors like terrorists and all this stuff that's

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<v Speaker 1>going on. But I think these are just short term things.

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<v Speaker 1>This is not some thing that's going to linger and

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<v Speaker 1>hold back all markets. I mean, people often forget like,

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<v Speaker 1>look what happened in March twenty twenty, right, that was

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<v Speaker 1>a reason to panic because we didn't know what was

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<v Speaker 1>going on. It was a pandemic global Go back to

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<v Speaker 1>two thousand and eight that crash. Sure you panic, but

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<v Speaker 1>the smart money bought the blood in the streets. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>You listen to Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, these guys who've

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<v Speaker 1>been doing it for a long time, they say the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing. Right, you got to bypass your emotions. You

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<v Speaker 1>have to make sure you're patient, and you have to

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<v Speaker 1>have a macro outlook, and you got to buy the

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<v Speaker 1>fear the blood in the streets. So right now, if

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<v Speaker 1>you're feeling fearful where you can't even fathom buying the dip,

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<v Speaker 1>you're not there yet. As far as understanding the concept

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<v Speaker 1>of investing right now. Obviously you don't invest money you

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<v Speaker 1>can't afford to lose, or you don't put your life

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<v Speaker 1>savings into assets. That's not a smart thing to do.

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<v Speaker 1>But you want to look for opportunities. So we'll I

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<v Speaker 1>personally be looking to buy up some all coins. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'll let you guys know when I do take

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<v Speaker 1>positions in certain all coins. But as stated the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of the podcast, Guys, we're still in the bull market.

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<v Speaker 1>No invalidation yet. However, if bitcoin does not find a

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<v Speaker 1>bottom soon and it keeps going down, guys, that's going

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<v Speaker 1>to be a bad sign. We want to get it

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<v Speaker 1>above that two hundred day moving average, so we'll have

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<v Speaker 1>to watch as closely. Guys. That's the news. Be sure

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<v Speaker 1>to check out our sponsor bitgo, which is one of

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<v Speaker 1>the top tier crypto custodians in the market. They also

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<v Speaker 1>have a retail platform where you can buy cell trades.

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<v Speaker 1>Stay crypto. Bitco works with many big brands and exchanges

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<v Speaker 1>and companies in the industry. They have over one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>billion dollars of assets on their platform. They service Bitstamp,

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<v Speaker 1>Exchange Suite, a token project, Pana Capital, that's Dan Moorehead's

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<v Speaker 1>a hedge one twenty one shares which has launched a

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and etheroreum ETFs. So they're one of the most

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<v Speaker 1>trusted platforms out there, headed up by Mike Belshee's So

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<v Speaker 1>if you would like to learn more, go to bitgo

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<v Speaker 1>dot com linkle beating this decryption. Also, be sure to

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<v Speaker 1>sign up for my free email newsletter. It's one hundred

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<v Speaker 1>percent free. Check out my book on Amazon. It's available

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<v Speaker 1>in paperback, in digital. And if you want to expand

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<v Speaker 1>your crypto knowledge and get expert commentary teaching you crypto,

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<v Speaker 1>check out my new course at mycrypto course dot com. Guys,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you for watching and listening. I appreciate you all,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'll talk to you all later