Speaker 1: We are back.
Speaker 2: Puck Time returns. This is an unofficial show, guys, but
thank you guys for tuning in. Uh, we're going to
talk a little. We're not gonna talk about Wednesday's games.
Wednesday we have a full show going. The press will
be on Brian Leonard, I think, and Don Buster we'll
break it down, and a bunch of games that are
going on. But today we're going to talk about how
to bet the NHL for the remainder of the NHL season.
We have Ralph Michaels who's going to go first. We
have Brian Leonard here, and of course we have none
other than Andrew mckinnis as well. To let me bring
in Andrew because he's Uh, Andrew.
Speaker 1: What's up? Brother?
Speaker 3: There?
Speaker 4: There?
Speaker 1: You are?
Speaker 5: There?
Speaker 2: You are? How are you doing? My friend? You were
you were firing off some winners. We are gonna Andrew
because I know our chat is going to be hopping.
I know the comments section is going to be hopping.
If you guys have any questions, we'll try and get
to them at the end of the show if we
have time. And I know you guys wanted us to
talk about the Canada USA game. We're gonna have a
full recap on that on Wednesday's show because the prez
is here and I want the press to show some
accountability on Wednesday's show and talk about it. I did
talk about it on wager Talk Today yesterday with Andy
Lang and Dan Dan Alexander, where they gave me a stuffy.
I'm not sure if you guys saw that. Why give
the players a stuffy? But with that said, I'm looking
forward to a great show today.
Speaker 5: Andrew.
Speaker 2: We're going to have feedback from you on how you're
going to bet the NHL. We're going to go through
different scenarios for different teams whether they'll make or miss
the playoffs. But everyone has different angles and this is
one of the reasons why I want to bring on
and Andrew. You're very good at at this stuff. Here,
let's bring on Ralph Michaels first so he can talk
about there he is Ralph.
Speaker 4: Then, Hey, guys, First, you know what, it's Tuesday. I'm
on wager Talk today. Where the hell is Andy? Oh?
That's in an hour. I'll be on wager Talk today.
Check me out. But I asked Karen before, I don't
think i've been on Punk Time ever, so I asked
Karen if I have to say A a lot and
use hoser in sentences, so I'm not quite sure what
the protocol says.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I definitely have to say A a lot and
a boot about a boot? How do we say about uh?
And then try and use as many letters as possible,
A like favorable you spell it with a uh. There's
a lot of letters that are spelled differently like neighbor
in the US and in Canada. And do you want
to want to know why? Because we still use British
English in Canada.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: The US dropped letters, Ralph. And here's an interesting fact
for you. The reason they dropped those letters was because
you had to pay by letter for newsprint back in
the day when you were putting together articles to print,
so they would drop letters in order to save money
in order to print newspapers. So they would drop the U.
Because it sounds the same for neighbor or neighbor. It
is true. You guys can google that or ask Chad Gpt,
who is also my friend a lot of the times.
But Ralph, we're excited to have you on the show.
You're going to talk about because you have you are
the pen man you have the fantastic stats talking about
teams off of breaks, and this is a unique season.
It is not just taking four or five days off
for the four nations. This was taking twenty days off
for the Olympic break. And congratulations once again to the
US men's team who celebrated in Miami yesterday. Andrew, I'm
not sure if you saw that. Even at the airport
they got the water trucks as the plane drove through,
they got the ringing endorsement from the water trucks that
sprayed the plane down. I thought that was super cool.
Congratulations to them on winning their fifth ever championship in
international tournament. Still thirty two behind Canada's thirty seven. But whatever,
I digress.
Speaker 4: You know me, imagine, imagine the work, the structure they
had to go through, because what the NHL and the
Olympics did. They sent us seven forty seven for the
team USA and Canada fly home together. It was supposed
to go to New York, so they had all those
flights scheduled for all the players to make their teams.
When the storms hit New York, they had to reschedule
the plane to come into Miami and had to reschedule
everybody's flights, so I don't know how many were really
delayed or how many didn't get to where they were
supposed to at the right time. But that's just another
wrinkle we'll throw into this first game.
Speaker 1: Backe.
Speaker 3: I'll just say this, Ralph, like, you know, we're always
getting stats from you before we go on the air,
and you'll throw us a tidbit. So obviously happy to
have you here on the sho you know yourself, to
tell us these great numbers and information as well. And
I think that overall this season has been so condensed
because of the Olympics, and people weren't happy about it.
There were so many injuries for teams and then now
we see at least two or three key injuries at
the Olympics this year, the big one being for the
La Kings player Fiala. But it is so interesting and like,
do you do you think that this is as much
before Carmel t you up for your real second, but
I want to ask you, like, do you think that
as much as the NHL hates, you know, how condensed
this schedule has been and really what it's been like
for them, do you feel like for Betters it's been
an opportunity for us, and it will be an opportunity
with the stuff you're about to mention here.
Speaker 4: Well, yes, yes, and no, let me say this. I'm
going to give you stats on how teams have done
with All Star break rests that's four games or more.
But as Karm said, this is such a unique situation
that you have to remember, these Canadian American players have
basically played the last two, maybe the last three games
with the same pressure as those players that are playing
Game seven of a Stanley Cup. It might even been
more than that. We saw the emotions after the game,
so to bounce back after that intense pressure versus a
traditional All Star break where you're resting having a fun game. Yes,
the NHL All Star games are much more physical and
legitimate compared to the NBA games, but again there's still
not that pressure that they have. So again, take all
of these angles and trends I'm giving you in stride
because this situation is so unique and not the traditional
rest with the database numbers I'm going to share with you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Ralph and Andrew's going to handle a lot
of the tech stuff here, at least as we get started.
But you talk about the pressure on teams, and I
think from a Canadian perspective and Team Canada, they went
through two grueling games, one against Finland where they had
to come back against Finland and obviously the one against
the US where they had to come back as well
too before losing it in overtime. And guys like mccarr, McKinnon, McDavid.
So these are guys that played almost thirty minutes of
ice time, if not more, some of them a lot
more ice time than they would normally get during the
NHL's regular season, especially in games in which they're normally up,
you'll see them drop to like twenty two to twenty
three minutes, but they definitely put in time because John
Cooper was double shifting guys like McDavid McKinnon, so they
weren't just on the first and second lines. They're also
on the third lines and getting shifts there as well too.
So there's got to be some fatigue moving forward, and
obviously the disappointment as well too of being handed as
Stuffy instead of a gold medal. So from there, I'm
going to give you the stage here to talk about
teams and like the top five, bottom five, as far
as that goes, and then you're gonna tweet it out
as well too. I believe the image is well choose
to give people a better look at it in case
they can't see it on the screen.
Speaker 4: Absolutely on ex at cal Sports Lvia. I'll put up
this chart right after the show. I'm going to basically
go through four things the teams that have done the
best and worst with at least two days of rest.
We're going to look at how home teams do when
both teams have at least four days rest, so polst
all Star break. We're going to look how totals do
post All Star Break, and we're going to look how
teams do streaking into the All Star break, both good
and bad. So first chart is basically this, it's just
profitence and records for teams with at least two days
of rest. On the very top, the San Jose Sharks
are number one at eleven and six plus eight point
two units, followed by the Avalanche, Blackhawks, Wild and Blue Jackets.
If you look at the very bottom of the list,
the worst team with playing with at least two days
of rest the Dallas Stars. They're only five and seven,
but with an average line of a favorite, they're down
eight point two units. The Jets, Oilers, Rangers, and Kings
all fill out the bottom five. Now, on the right
hand side of the chart, you see those teams highlighted
in blue. Those are over under records with at least
two days rest. The top over teams the Canadians and
the Bruins both ten and three over under. That's seventy
seven percent, the Mammoth seventy five percent to the over,
the Jets seventy three percent to the over, and the
Panthers sixty nine point two percent to the over. The
teams on the bottom those under teams playing with rest,
the Flyers twenty seven percent, Lightning thirty three percent, Blues, Rangers,
and Capitals all forty percent against the spread. So we
also know that home teams obviously travel a little bit less,
but the All Star break is the home ice edge
still important. We'll take a look at this chart. I
went back to twenty and eighteen. The top line home
favorites of minus one thirty five and higher. Karen, if
we could get the other black chart, that longer black
chart for the home teams with four plus days rest,
or Andrew, thank you. You'll see that the top line
are home favorites minus one thirty five or higher. The
second line is home tweens between the one thirty five,
so you're a small favorite or small dog. And on
the bottom you see home dogs of plus one thirty
five or higher when both teams have at least four
days rest. Well, let's take a look. Home favorites are
fifty five percent, but remember because of the juice, that's
actually a negative thirteen point nine percent our live and
take a look at the puck line record for home
favorites the game after the big break, they are only
twenty and forty minus twenty six point three percent ROI
home between the one thirty fives. You see that's a
negative as well. On the money line they're fifty percent
minus three point four percent ROI, and on the puck
line they're thirty nine percent minus eighteen point nine. So
the takeaway fade home teams after long break. We'll see
if that continues today. Two more things talk go ahead.
Speaker 2: Start ad No, No, go ahead, And I was just
going to talk about you know, we talked a lot
on the previous show about puck lines and how tough
they are to bet in the NHL season this year,
mainly because I think at Andrew, I think it was
I broke it down at around the halfway mark of
the NHL season, where it was something like twenty six
percent of the game have gone to OT. On top
of that, there was a bunch of one goal games.
If you were betting puck lines, you were losing money.
It was a and that shows it there as well too.
After the All Star break, I think people normally think, Ralph, okay,
this team's minus two forty. I don't want to lead
to forty. Let me take the puck line and lay
the one and a half and get plus one point fifteen.
And they turn a winning wager into a losing wager
when that game either wins by a goal in regulation
or a goal in ot.
Speaker 4: Yeah, well absolutely, you know, and you know, does it
make sense? Absolutely? These teams are coming back there. They're rusty,
and to win is great. To win by two goals
is tough when you either your legs are tired, you're
out of sync, you're maybe trying different lines after the break,
you're not in cohesiveness. So to me, it makes total sense.
So I do have two more things I want to
break down. If I may how do hot teams do
and how do cold teams do? I don't have a
for this, but I found this interesting. Post all Star breaks,
so each team has at least four days of rest Kren.
This just follows exactly what we said rust versus rest.
Teams that are on a win streak of at least
three games prior to the All Star Break, like the
Blue Jackets, Stars, Maple Leafs and Lightning straight up guys,
they are only twenty four and thirty seven thirty nine
point three percent. That is minus twenty three percent ROI,
and teams with a win streak of at least three
games post All Star break on the puck line nineteen
and forty two thirty one point one percent and minus
forty three percent ROI. Teams on a losing streak going
into the All Star break, they are actually twenty nine
and twenty two fifty seven percent plus thirteen point one percent.
So take away from this is simple throw away what
happened pre break. We see that the teams on a
win streak are completely overrated minus forty three point one
percent ROI on the puck line and teams that are
on a losing streak into the break are plus thirteen
point one percent ROI, so take away current form and
restart the season like you with at the beginning. And lastly,
let me finish and then I'll get your comments on
that totals. Guys, post All Star Break, just looking doesn't
matter teams are home or away. If you have a
total of five post All Star Break, I didn't even
look if there are any. Those teams have gone eighteen
four and four eighty two percent to the over totals
of five and a half post All Star Break, eighty
eight and seventy eight fifty three percent to the over.
So low totals fifty six point four percent to the over.
Totals of six are only forty four percent over totals
of six and a half are only forty five point
nine percent over, so low totals you bet over totals
of six or more only eighty and ninety eight forty
four point nine percent to the over. So those four
bits of data all I can share with you on
NHL team's post All Star Break.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and there you know. As far as the totals
go for opening night or the reopening night, I guess
there's two five and a halves and six that are
exactly six I believe, so right now the six and
a halves aren't aren't there. But I think it's important
because Andrew has talked about this as well too, is
looking at some of the teams and how many players
they had that were over in Milan playing in this
tournament as well too. Ralph, you know, it's it's it's
interesting because you talked about the breaks of like three
or four days and and how teams faired. And there's
probably no bigger example than a couple of years ago
the Edginton Eulers who ran off sixteen straight wins and
then the All Star break game and then they think
they lost two of the three outside of the All
Star break. It's sometimes the break comes at the wrong
time when you're when your team is playing well, and
then for some teams when you're playing miserable, the All
Star break comes at the right time.
Speaker 4: Absolutely, you know, it's a fresh reset, you know, and
we even see that in all sports. You know, again,
this is this is a unique lengthy you know. I
don't know this and like I said, I watched the
Olympics and I enjoy it and I only do very
minimal NHL Hondy Camping. I look for situations, But Andrew,
just for peace of mind, what team had the most players?
What was the most players that any one team sent
to the Olympics.
Speaker 1: The Florida Panthers had nine.
Speaker 3: So in a little bit, I'm gonna mention every single
team's length, but the Florida Panthers had nine. And then
you look at your Minnesota's, your Tampa Bay's, your Colorado's,
the Vegas Golden Knights. It's near the top. Is kind
of what you'd expect. The teams that are the most
elite teams sent the most Olympic players. Besides obviously the
Florida Panthers this year, they're a little bit lower in
the standings, you know, due to injuries and things like that.
But Florida Panthers had nine players, and then you've got
Colorado and Tampa and a handful of those that had
several players as well. So, Ralph, my biggest takeaway from
what you just said there, though, is I think it's
so key, and to be honest with you, a big
part of it is for US handicappers as well. You know,
you get that clean slate, you kind of get a
little bit of a refresh, and I think there's gonna
be a lot of people today that are going to
be looking back and seeing who was hot going into
the break. You know, who can I look to bet
on to get a goal or to the team to
do well. So what you're saying is kind of it's
a fresh slate here a little bit. And that road
stuff if you could circle back to that the road splits,
because that's one angle I've always looked at as well,
and I think if we can keep it simplistic here,
I think a lot of it is just it's easier
to be in business mode when you're on the road.
Speaker 4: Right again, home favorites of one thirty five or higher
post All Star break minus twenty six point three percent
on the puck line, minus fourteen percent on the money line.
So that and again, hot teams not only not only
losing money, losing significant money, because like you said, people
are looking at last five, last seven games. Throw those out, guys,
start fresh with what you got and make your decisions
and have a great second half to the NHL season.
Speaker 2: All right, Awesome information from Ralph Michaels. Ralph, it is
five dollars Tuesdays over at wager Talk, multiple cappers as
many as you want, you get a play from them
for fight dollars. What do you have up?
Speaker 4: Thank you, and again make sure to tune into wager
Talk today for a couple college basketball a breakdowns. I
will put this chart on x at cal Sports v
number one in college basketball this year, very proud of it.
Off of five percent win I've hit six straight best
bet winners. Those are plays that are rated four percent
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Speaker 3: Great stuff, Ralph, take career and hopefully'll have you on
again as well sometime soon.
Speaker 4: Thanks guys, say hi to Brian for me and appreciate
you having me on.
Speaker 2: All right, I'll take care of so Andrew I before
we bring Brian on and then because I covered this
one on wager Talk today yesterday, but I want to
give people an idea of what has been going on
during the Olympics, because everyone thinks we take a break,
and we don't take a break. We're watching it. We're
handicapping the Olympic Games. But I am handicapping the Olympic schedule,
and I'm going to give you an example of what
I talked about yesterday on wager Talk today in breaking
down teams. So you know, here is one of them
right now. So that's the Anaheim Ducks. You look at
the Anaheim Ducks and I went through all the teams
and their home and away splits, so it's whether they're
going to make the playoffs or not. Twenty six games left,
fifteen at home, eleven away, three back to backs. Two
of them are at home, so there's no travel in
those ones, and the other back to back, as I
mentioned yesterday, is when they are in Ottawa and then Montreal,
and the travel between Ottawa and Montreal is minimal at best,
so it's not a long travel day for them as
well too. Seven game homestand to start to restart this season,
and that is huge because the Anaim Ducks, as I mentioned,
fifteen home games, eleven away, they're going to use up
seven almost half of their home games on this homestand
and you they've they've got to come out of it.
Five and two. They're in a playoff spot right now,
but they have that eighth spot right now, but they're
only five points back in the Vegas Golden Knights for
the number one spot and having played one game fewer,
so they still have an eye on, believe it or not,
with Joel Quenville and the team have an eye on.
Speaker 1: We're losing Karmen. We lost KRM.
Speaker 3: Oh my god, Brian, I hope you're there with me
because we lost karm Let's let's let's.
Speaker 1: Bring it back here.
Speaker 2: I'm here, Let's bring it back, all right, I've always
been here, all right.
Speaker 1: All right, go on back, go on back.
Speaker 2: Thank you? You lost yourself, all right. I don't know.
I looked like I was there the whole time. But
the fourth best road record for this team five points
back to the Vegas Golden Knights for top spot. So uh
and and the Nights start with a five game road trip,
which we're going to talk to Brian Leonard about. Will
the will the Anaheim Ducks make the player? I believe?
So there minus two forty to make the playoffs, and
I get it, that's a big price. But when you
look at the numbers, their strength to schedule is one
of the second best. It's the second best. Actually, Ato
point five to three zero. Only the La Kings at
five point twenty nine have a weaker strength of schedule.
Everyone else is higher as far as that one goes,
as I can see on my chart here, so we
shall see. But you can find them anywhere from two
forty to two eighty. And this is why having multiple
outs is important, because you don't want to play it
at two eighty. You want to play it at two forty.
And it's all about the imply probability and what you're
paying for what you're getting, and minus two forty is
the right price, minus two eighty is the wrong price.
So with that said, I'm done talking about the anaining Ducks.
Let's bring in Brian Leonard.
Speaker 1: Yeah. It's a great point, though, Carmen.
Speaker 3: I'll just say, like there's you know, I talked with
you and the whole chat, and I talk with Brian
about this and buster. One big thing that I want
to do a better job of it, and I'll talk
about it in my segment coming up, is that you
want to find teams to bet on and find teams
to bet against. And that's kind of been one of
those things where you know, when you look at the
second half of the season, because there's been a real
difficult time figuring out which teams are going to be
sellers right now in the NHL, right because the look
at the Eastern Conference race, the wild card race, the
Maple Leafs are having a horrible year.
Speaker 1: If they have a good start to this post.
Speaker 3: Olympic Breakkarm, all of a sudden, you know what's going
to happen in the Toronto media.
Speaker 1: Oh my god, it's possible they can make the playoffs.
Speaker 3: But the second the teams start to do bad, like
the Anaheim Ducks or like other teams, then you can
start betting against them. And so I think that your
bet is a great bet, and I also think it's
gonna only the price will only get worse. So make
sure you, guys, if you want to get in Tailcarm
right away.
Speaker 1: But Brian, let's bring you in here.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna make a bold prediction as we bring in
Brian Leonard, I'm gonna make a bold prediction this And
let's bring Brian in as well too, because I want
to see the reaction in this game.
Speaker 4: He wou.
Speaker 3: He wouldn't let me see. I'm sorry, I can't bring
you in. Apparently, I'm not allowed.
Speaker 2: Sorry, sorry, not sorry. I'm Canadian. We say sorry all
the time. If we had won the gold medal, we
probably would have said sorry to the guys as we
were shaking hands at the end of the game. Sorry guys. Sorry,
but uh we're supposed to be polite, but not with
each other, Andrews. So screw you anyways. With with that,
listen with with h See now I lost my whole
train of thought. Okay, here's my bold prediction on on
the on the Leafs. Leafs need to I said this before,
they need to tank the season, and I and people
are like, how do you tank a season? It doesn't
mean that that you go out there purposely looking to lose.
But this is a team that has a ten percent
chance of making the playoffs. Uh, if if they want
to protect their first round pick in the draft, they
need to finish the bottom five. So, Andrew, what is
the scenario where one of these other five teams, okay,
or one of these other bottom four teams. And I'll
bring you in Andrew for this one, because I need
to see your reaction on this one as well too,
so you can go full screen. What are the chances
that the Leafs could ever convince Austin Matthews to leave
because he signed that contract and have a team with
cap space pick him up. But one of the bottom
five teams, what's the best scenario for Austin Matthews to leave,
because let me tell you, you want to get another
team's first round pick. So if Chicago, if Columbus, if
one of those teams can get an Austin Matthews, and
it's probably like, I don't know, Badart and Badart and
Austin Matthews will look pretty good together in Chicago. Yet
one of these teams with cap space and Matthews agrees
to wave his no trade clause and you get that
number one pick and you get McKenna in two years time.
Speaker 1: Okay, I gotta jump in here. I got no in.
Speaker 2: Two years time. Wait, wait, in two years time. Do
you know who's going to be wearing a Toronto he
believes uniform. Let me tell you wo's gonna be wearing.
Speaker 1: It's not going to be Connor McDavid.
Speaker 2: Connor McDavid, it's not.
Speaker 4: Absolutely.
Speaker 2: I met him at an airport about a year ago
and I said, you coming to Toronto?
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, right. I didn't ask him if he.
Speaker 2: Was coming to play. He just saw you coming to Toronto.
Speaker 1: He's done enough losing. He's done enough losing. I don't think.
Speaker 5: He is.
Speaker 2: He only signed a two year contract in Edmonton. He
is gone. He is leaving. He gave the team two
years to make something happen, and then he is leaving.
He has put in his time, as as Matthew to
Chuck says, always a bride made never.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, okay, Bryan.
Speaker 3: As much as we love having your face on screen,
I think it's time to hear your voice a little
bit here.
Speaker 1: How are you?
Speaker 5: I'm never going to get those three minutes back in
my life. He's so excited to get back on the show.
He's just going off on rants. He probably spend too
much time a press is what it is, thinking, thinking
about things that make no difference.
Speaker 3: I'm never going to get read that three minutes back
in my life again. How many how many people have
heard that in the world over and over the time.
Speaker 5: That's right, and by the way, I agree with your
Anaheim situation. They're already in the playoffs. I've got the
AC right now. They are three points up on LA
so of course it's going to be a favorite with
that schedule. Yeah, that's a good bet.
Speaker 2: Now even more interesting, Brian, before uh we we tackle
or we ask you how you're going to tackle the
rest of the NHL season, I am going to put
you to the test on quite possibly the easiest slam
dunk yes or no you've ever had. Let's bring this up, Andrew.
Can we bring up the Vegas Golden Knights and just Brian,
maybe there you go, Brian. The Vegas Golden Knights to
make the playoffs. They are in first place in the
Pacific twenty five games left strength to schedule of five
point fifty nine, only two back to backs left, five
game road trip to start the season to start to
restart the season, a terrible home record at fourteen and fifteen,
and they only have like four maybe five slam dunk
games the rest of the season, where they play Vancouver twice,
Calgary a couple of times, and the Chicago Blackhawks. Every
other game is against a pretty good team, including some
against Dallas, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Colorado. They are minus four thousand
to make the playoffs, but they are also plus twenty
two hundred to miss the playoffs if they go one
in four they start with a five game road trip.
If they go one in four, those odds have to drop.
Is this just a three minutes of your life You're
never going to get back again.
Speaker 3: No.
Speaker 5: I think if I'm forced to play that I play.
They do not make the playoffs. Keep in mind they're
terrible and overtimes shootouts. If they've got fourteen losses on
the season and those those aren't going to be there
when the playoffs come. This is a team nobody's gonna
want to play in the playoffs because for some reason
they've been terrible in overtime. But you had mentioned they're
fourteen to fifteen at home, Well they're thirteen and fifteen
on the road. They've all scored the opposition by twelve goals.
They have the ability to blow people out, but they
have not done it. And you talked about the schedule,
and one of the things I'm going to look at
is veteran teams when they've got this schedule coming up,
especially in March. Florida obviously a better team that doesn't
have a lot of depth. They're a team I'm looking
to fade right now. I think Florida is a better
team than what the record is sure, but this isn't
their year. We just got back for Florida. I actually
was on visiting were all and a lot of Florida
fans are not happy with Vegas. They hey, Vegas, everybody
that's Vegas. But Vegas is just They've got still got injuries.
Their goalies have not been great all season long. They've
struggled with that. The defense has not been good. And
now you've got seven guys who are coming back that
played and played in the in the plast five of
them in the championship games. So it's going to take
them a while to get going. And what is it
very important to me is taking a look at the schedule.
We're all kind of talked about this a little bit.
Talked about teams going into the break and out of
the break and all. It's common sense. If you go
into the break and you're winning, everything's good, You're fine.
You know, then you're still feeling that way. Teams that
went on the break in winning and then they went
to the gold medal and they played for the US.
Those are teams I'm looking to fade coming out. So
it's a situation for myself where I'm always looking to
play underdogs most of the time anyway, but I think
this is a great spot to play underdogs the rest
of the way. And you were talking about Vegas. Vegas
is gonna be favored. They're not favored in LA. They're
a slight underdog in that one, but they're gonna be
favored a lot, and they don't have a lot of depth,
and they're basically a one to two, you know, second
or third line to get out as much as possible.
So Vegas is gonna be a team. They may win
these games and they may make the playoff. Chances are
obviously they will, but they're gonna be a team that's
going to lose money the rest.
Speaker 2: Of the year.
Speaker 5: If you pay Vegas the rest of the year, I
think it would be a pretty good shap.
Speaker 4: Yeah, Bri.
Speaker 2: You talk about the La Kings in their first game out,
and the Lle Kings are on the outside looking in
right now. They are, I believe, eight points behind the
Vegas Golden Knights, but only like three or four points
I think behind or maybe five points behind a team
that one of the wild card spots at the moment.
So obviously this is a huge four to four point
game for them. On Wednesday or Thursday night, the first
game out for them. What if you're the Elie Kings,
and Andrew, this is for you as well too. Obviously,
if you're the Elie Kings, what do you do after
the obviously the Fiala injury where he has done for
the season, that that creates ken Holland has to do
something before the trade dead dawn. Now, he brought in panerin,
so the whole idea of having panerin there and Fiala
there was a good one. The problem now is that
Fiala is not there. You so you're gonna get an
extra almost eight million dollars worth of capspace and seventy
five thousand dollars worth the cap space, which gives I
think Haland something close to twenty three million dollars worth
of cap space. Do you go out and and do
you spread that around or do you look for one guy?
Speaker 5: You're asking me this.
Speaker 2: Question both of you, so i'll you first. Yeah.
Speaker 5: Well, if I'm the Kings, I don't think anybody they
pick up is going to have them winning the championship.
They can go deeper into the playoffs possibly, but I
look more to the future. Out of those teams. So
if I'm the Kings, I'll do something looking towards the future,
maybe break somebody out there they could get a cheaper
contract to sign them. But I wouldn't go crazy on
trying to bring in superstars or anything because they'll probably
end up leaving. But yeah, at this point of the season,
we've seen enough out of them. They've had some bad
luck obviously on season with some injuries and all, but
they've been not scored by fifteen goals on the season.
They're not what I would consider one of the best
teams in there, and I don't see they can bring
in anybody there's going to change much of that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the tough part is, like what you're
saying there, Brian, is so true. Like you look at
the other teams in the West that are great, like
you know Minnesota and Dallas and Colorado, that division is
just stacked in alone. Like some people have argued that
the East is the more competitive division, but the West
has the better teams. And when you look at it, though,
this LA team, can they stack up against them? To
your point, if they pick up one guy right, one superstar,
could that one player take them over the edge Carl,
I'll throw it back to you with this. I just
think that every team has their spot that they're in,
right Like you guys know how at the beginning of
every season, the management do their interviews and they kind
of talk about goals going into the season. So it's like,
this team, their goal is to be close to the playoffs.
This team is to make the playoffs to win around,
you know, like these realistic expectations. The problem with the
La Kings is that they've pretty much been in the
same spot for the last several years. Make the playoffs,
get in, and the Edmonton Oilers beat them. So I
think it's kind of like the Carolina Hurricanes, carm The
Hurricanes have always been a good team, but nobody cares
anymore what they do during the regular season if they
don't do something. When they get to the dance, they
always get there, but they always go home alone. And yeah,
I'm pretty sure they're getting a little bit tired of
spending nights alone. So I think the Kings need to
probably try and you know, go dancing with somebody a little.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, Andrew, like I wanted to bet the
Kings to make the playoffs and then the Fiaala injury happened,
So it'll be interesting to see what happens with with
Ken Holland with the team, because if you look at
the splits for this team, the home and waste splits,
they have fifteen games, they have twenty six games left,
Fifteen of them come at home, eleven are on the road.
Eight of those eleven games on the road are against
non playoff teams at the moment. But the one scary
thing is they have six back to backs in those
twenty six games, which is kind of brutal because there's
some teams like Vegas who only have two back to backs,
but six back to backs for a team, and you
need a full roster when you have back to backs,
you need guys healthy. And Fiela not being there being
there of course with his injury and done for the season,
that's got it hurt. So we'll see what Holland does
as far as that. But those home and away splits,
you know, the best teams are right now as far
as to both you guys, as far as the home
away splits as Anaheim fifteen and eleven, home and away,
Elie Kings fifteen to eleven, the Dallas Stars fifteen games
at home, only ten on the road. And then there's
some brutal ones where you look at and you mentioned Brian,
the Florida Panthers. The Florida Panthers and the Toronto Maple
Leafs both have twenty five games left. Only ten of
those games are at home for each team, fifteen or
on the road, and it becomes so much tougher in
the second half of the season to win games on
the road. I have to believe.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Florida's down seventeen goals on the season, yet they
played twenty one games or thirty one games at home
and twenty six on the road. You should not be mondessimit.
I realize they've had a lot of entries this year,
but this this is a team right now that it's
going to be tough for him. And since they've won
the championship, been in the championship the last couple of
two three years, those games are really starting to take
an effect on them. And like I said, they just
had all these guys going to the going to the Olympics.
It's a team I'm lucky to fade. On a serious note,
I do want to point out for something that I'm
looking at here for the rest of the season, keep
in mind the games against your conference mean a whole
lot more the games against the opposite conference. Just looking
at Vegas, they do start off with la that they
don't play another conference game until Friday the six against Minnesota.
They'll play four straight games on the road, all against
the Eastern Conference. So those are going to be times
where we're gonna be able to take advantage of these
teams in the Eastern Conference because they are playing at
home where Vegas has to play on the road. If
you take a look at the schedule and we see,
you know, teams playing a lot of games in a row.
Vegas is playing three days and four nights in the
third days against Floria or Minnesota at home. Just trying
to pick out the games where they're playing. Teams are
playing other playoff teams in your conference or per predictive
playoff teams in your conference. Who've got Minnesota, they got
the Edmonton Ronalds, they got Dallas. Those games will mean
a whole lot more home games against Pittsburgh, Chicago, Buffalo
after that, So just keep that in mind that they
mean even more. The conference games mean even more now
than they did earlier in the season because there's less
games to be played, so you could probably pick out
good spots, especially for underdog I think the underdogs are
the way to go. We see this all the time
and in baseball NBA, what teams need to win the
lines go up and take advantage of them by playing
the underdogs. And I'm really excited about as an underdog
player the rest of this season. I think we're gonna
have a lot of nice bets.
Speaker 3: I think that's really important to mention. I really like
what you said there, Brian about I was just looking
up some numbers for the schedules coming up, where like
those and even the draw like I would, I might
start betting the draws, guys. I've never really done it
until we're closer to playoff time, but like, I think
that if you're a guy that likes to bet puck lines,
good luck betting them in intra division games. If it's
out of conference games, you can maybe bet some of
those puck lines. But we're gonna see a lot and Brian,
you know, if I would have told you, if I
tell you, hey, look this team is, you know, plus
one forty five and the score is gonna be two
to one after the second period, you might say, Okay,
sign me up, you know, because maybe something could happen,
or if it's a low scoring battle, or if it's
a you know what I mean, And like I feel
like a lot of those games, the underdog is right
there with them until the final buzzer. They're right there
the entire time. So especially in those divisional matchups. The
thing that I'm curious about and krme, I'll go back
to you and get your thoughts, Brian, just a little
roundtable stuff here is a you know, I've really been
putting a lot of emphasis on the fact that the
league has been so competitive. Besides, Vancouver will say, we
don't really know who the shitty teams are. So is
it going to be a time where post Olympic break
we're gonna see some trades, We're gonna finally figure out
who the crappy teams are and and then that's where
we can kind of make some money out of it.
Because like my famous last words came, you're probably tired
of hearing me complain about this is like, why have
I not bet against Vancouver enough?
Speaker 1: Why have I not bet against this team enough? Right?
So it's probably gonna be time that we find.
Speaker 3: Out who these bad teams are, right, Yeah, it's been
a unique season.
Speaker 2: You know, we have twenty five games left there, there's
no other way of putting it, because like the travel
schedules and having to put aside twenty days for the Olympics,
who would have thought with twenty five games left that
the following teams are not in the playoffs. In the
Western Conference you have the li Kings, and you have
the Winnipeg Jets, who are normally in there. And then
you look at the Eastern Conference, you have the Washington Capitals,
the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Ottawa Senators, the Florida Panthers,
New Jersey Devils, and New York Rangers. None of those
teams are competing for a playoff spot right now. It
is so hard to believe. But on the other hand,
it's like you can almost expect that this season has
been a weird one and you have to just you
have to take it as that, and I think to
Brian's point handicapping it, you have to take those things
into consideration because when you are a West Coast team
playing an East Coast team or an East coast. Let's
say play in the West coast. While the points are important,
they are not four point games. They are two point games.
So it's not like the Vegas game against Eli Kings
it's a four point game. Vegas against the Pittsburgh Penguins
in like four or five days from now or wherever
it is on the weekend is not a four point game.
It's a two point game where you want to pick
up points, but it's not as important. Like and Andrew
to your point of draws, look at the Minnesota Wild
twenty three of their games. They have fifty eight games.
Minnesota twenty three have gone to overtime. If you're betting
draws on Minnesota, you've made money because they're normally like
plus three hundred. So do the math anyway you want.
Plus three hundred on twenty three games is sixty nine
one hundred dollars if you're flat betting it, and then
you lose what thirty five on the other end of
the game not going to and it's a straight thirty
five because you're not paying any big on a game
that doesn't go to ot, so you're making money.
Speaker 5: So it is.
Speaker 2: It is crazy. It reminds me of and just to
switch sports for a second, then I want to go
back to Brian of the twenty eighteen World Cup, the
first year in which they used var android believe it
was and twenty eighteen or twenty twenty two, and I
said that because of VAR that they were going to
be better at identifying when a goal went off a
defender instead of straight into the net. So bett own
goals and the odds were fourteen to one plus fourteen
hundred every single game, and there were something like twenty
games that had own goals in them. And if you're
a flop at and then you made a shitload of money.
Speaker 3: Wow, very interesting, very interesting. Yeah, that's cool stuff. I mean,
I think I think that you know, we're going to
see a lot of these these teams like this comment
from eight oh five Noodles. What a comment here, Brian
or what a name is picking losers easier than winners?
And it sounds like a funny thing, But if you
really dissect what he's saying here, Andy Lang talks about
this a lot. Is it easier to to expect a
good team to be great every day or for a
bad team to be bad every day?
Speaker 1: What's your take? On that, Brian, I, I don't know.
Speaker 3: I I think it's I think it's you know, obviously
you can you're you're dealing with heavy prices, right. But
the thing that I've been trying to say a lot
is that that we are so time consumed with staring
at Odds logic screens, staring at Odds boards and stuff
like that that when I talk to a guy at
a at a coffee shop and he says.
Speaker 1: Oh, that's cool, you do that for work. I think
this team's gonna win tonight.
Speaker 3: And it's like he likes the Avalanche over you know,
the San Jose Sharks, right, It's like, oh, okay, yeah,
that makes sense, you know. And it's just I mean,
the Sharks have gotten better. But I think what he's
saying here is that you almost like you can't just
take all the heavy chalk, but it's almost easier to
expect bad teams to be bad.
Speaker 1: What do you think? CARV?
Speaker 2: And this is a plant point, and I'm gonna throw
this to Brian with a quick comment. This is why
I love what Brian does, both with baseball and both
with the NHL. And we're we're probably gonna see it
in the remainder of this NHL season. You might go
to wager Talks streaks and see like last three days
or seven days or thirty days, and let's I'll just
use the seven days as an example. You'll see Brian Leonard.
His record is four and nine, but he's number one
because he has those plus two hundred dogs that he's
identified to have value. So this is where win percentage
is unimportant. It is units that are important and profit
margin that's important. And a lot of people don't get that, Brian.
So I'm gonna toss it to you because you do
an X one job with that, right.
Speaker 5: I appreciate that. Yeah, it's it's It's one of the
reasons I love hockey and baseball because every day it's different.
You go to an NFL game and you know, the
best teams playing the worst team, you know it's gonna happen.
It's a physical game. Hockey is the luck factor is
so high in baseball and hockey. You know, like yesterday
in preseason baseball, the Detroy Tigers had Scooble on the
mount Who's only going to pitch two innings and yet
money is flying in on them and Minnesota wins street
to nothing. I don't do a lot with preseason baseball.
I know some other guys do, but I'm looking at that,
I go, how the hell? Sure, you got two innings,
Detroit's not going to lose probably in those two innings,
But you got a nine in a game, and you
got guys coming in that are single A or whatever.
It's it's just too hard to lay that kind of
price in those regards. And that's why I just love
these sports, the money line sports, because you can get
plus money back and it's worked out great for us
in the past. I actually checked before I got on
today because I've talked in the past about being number
one overall in the history of Wait, you're talking in
hockey baseball, And I checked again and I'm still number one.
So it's it's a ground not a lot of people.
You know, it hurts our sales from playing an underdog
because a lot of people don't like to play underdogs.
They'll say, what am I doing? Playing this game has
got more of a chance to lose. In fact, many
times I'll put out a play and I'm getting like
plus one fifty on the game, and the guy says,
and I'll put in there, I go, well, chances are
they're going to lose. Well, the line's telling you the
chances are they're going to lose. And the guy says, well,
if you think they're going to lose, why'd you bet them?
I said, because the value is there. If I think
they're going to lose six out of ten times and
I'm getting better odds than that, I'm gonna it's worth playing.
You just talked about it with what you did with
those that soccer things, So yeah, you got to know
what the numbers are. You got to know what the
odds are, and that that's We're just looking to grind
profit every day. And I've got guys to be with
me a real long time to like it. And there's
other guys that don't know about that way.
Speaker 2: So casinos in the casinos in Vegas and the books
make money every year, and it is because everyone loves
the correlation of I want to bet the favor and
I want to bet the over. It doesn't matter what
the sport is. You bet the favor, let me bet
the over, and it is a losing proposition. It is
a lot of their money comes from penny slots. But
of course people know is it is. It is one
of those things, Andrew, That's all it gets ingrained in
people that I gotta bet favorites, I gotta bet. I
can't log in or log in. I can't tune into
a game and cheer for like no goals in the
NHL or no points, for nothing to happen, because they
want to enjoy the game, and enjoying the game to
them means touchdowns, field goals, goals in hockey. But that's
not always the success. If you want to be entertained, yes,
if if you want to win, sometimes you've got to
go the other way. So dude, I bet unders in soccer,
and I don't even watch the game. So that's what
I do. Every thirty minutes. I checked the score to
see where we're at.
Speaker 5: I just won't watch. I have a life.
Speaker 3: But you joy everything, right, Well, I'll just say, like,
I think it's really important for someone especially like Brian
and even for me, and you know, Karen, you do
so many sports people don't realize as well. It's like, look,
it's five dollars Tuesday today, and for obvious reasons, people
are going to hop on the five dollars plays and
people will jump on it. But I'll tell you what, guys,
and you guys tell me if this is bad or not,
because this is the business that we're in, right. So
I finished the Olympics on a really really good run.
It was like fifteen and six or twelve and four,
whatever it might have been. But my last three plays
that were above three percent when I think zero and three.
So it was two four per sense and a five percent.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: So the people that bought that four percent, oh, they
think I'm awful. The people that bought those five percent, man,
they think I had a horrible tournament.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: The people that before the tournament started on puck time
that bought the full Olympic package, they had success. If
you want to buy Brian Leonard, don't buy daily, get
involved with the long term, like this is the best strategy.
Early bird MLB plus free NHL from Brian Leonard. Brian,
they should of course be hopping in with you every day.
And you understand what I'm trying to say here is
that it's about the long term game here.
Speaker 5: It definitely is, and there's just something that I've been
very good at over the past. I see it a
lot easier when you're playing the underdogs. You know, some
people are really good at playing favorites. Other people are
very good at playing underdogs. You've got to be able
to just I play favorites too. But when I'm looking
at game, the first thing I look at is do
I think the underdog has a chance here? And if
I do, do they have a better chance than what
that current number is? And it's you're never laying big juice.
So I could go, I can go oh and oh
and five playing the underdogs, and I only lose five
in five units if it's a one unit play. But
if you play big favorites, and there's guys out there
that I've seen them in, they're laye four dollars and
maybe there's value in laying four dollars or something. But
if you go back and check laying those big numbers,
I've done. I've done this for over forty five years.
I actually I have a free play up on the
site today talking about a basketball game in which something
just looks too good to be true. I'll just go
to the site right now. I look at that basketball
and tells you a little bit about the way I handicap.
But yeah, today, being the five dollars Tuesday, I've got
my top play in the NBA, a top play in
college both four percent plays. I'm available for only five dollars.
But if you're looking to save money in the long run,
I've had a pretty good amount of people sign up
for this already and I haven't even had any baseball yet.
Hockey starts again tomorrow, so this is the time to
do it. And I think this only goes until the
end of the month, so after that point, they're gonna
jack up that price on you. So I'm to the
point now or I'm gonna start putting a little bit
smaller plays in pre season baseball, but really looking forward
to the second half of the hockey season, I'm gonna
have some great payoffs here on some underdogs, and I
just can't wait. So I hope people join us. And
if you're looking for short term, great, If you're looking
for long term, I think I've proven that over the years.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say it bright before we let you go.
They have to take advantage of that one. I talked
about it last year and you had a good season.
You know you're getting the rest of the NHL, and guys,
I'm telling you the probably will have a killer rest
of the season. I'm not trying to mush you. You're
gonna have a good NHL plass because I want all
the guys to be successful. It doesn't matter to me
if the three of us that are up on the
screen finished first, second, and third in any order. If
we're all plus units, that means the clients at wager
Talk made money. That's at the end of the day.
That's really all that matters. You want to have happy customers.
So and then baseball kicks off. So is the only
other sport going on in the summertime other than the
World Cup of Soccer that is taking place in Canada,
the US and possibly Mexico.
Speaker 1: Don't forget what's going on there. Don't forget the is
that really a sport?
Speaker 2: But anyways, Brian, if you haven't already mentioned what you
have up for five dollars Tuesdays and then we'll send
you on your way.
Speaker 5: Yeah, like I said, my top play in NBA, top
play in college, and get them both for five bucks.
I really love these places today. And and the best
part about all of it is you're able to when
we do our writeups, you're able to possibly learn something
that you haven't learned before. I like to read other
guys write ups because it gives me a little bit
more information than I already have. And I said, I'll
like a game and I'm run on the border of it,
and I'll see, you know, I trade a lot with
a lot of the other handicappers on the site, and
I'll say, Oh, this guy's really good in this sport.
Let me see what he has to say. Oh, I
didn't realize that. Yeah, this that don't put me over.
So yeah, if you're if you're looking out there looking
for that, you get good write ups and it make
a lot of sense. I've I've read your guys right
ups in the past. You know what you're talking about.
And I highly respect your abilities in hockey. You've been
had to gap me hockey a lot longer than I have.
And I do want to thank before I leave the
United States team for winning the gold medal because for
the first time ever, we've had two Americans on puck
time in the same day.
Speaker 1: There we go.
Speaker 2: It was so hard to do because the system is
set up to just boot one of you guys out.
But whatever, listen, Brian, thanks for coming on man, we're
gonna see you. Uh, we're gonna get you on doing
some double duty this week. So we'll see you again
this week to break down some NHL games. Man, have
good luck with your place tonight, good luck with everybody.
Speaker 3: All right, Brokaren, I'll just mention this really quick. Brother,
we got tomorrow, we're gonna be back in full swing.
But we're gonna oh geez, this is such a small graphic,
but look, Florida Panthers had nine players, Avalanche, wild Lightning
and Nights all had eight players at the Olympics. We
had seven players with Dallas, New Jersey, the Boston Bruins,
you know. But mostly what I wanted to mention, and
I'll I'll just touch on this a little bit and
we'll and then we'll you know, tomorrow we can talk.
Speaker 1: About it as well.
Speaker 3: But the teams that didn't have a lot of Olympians
is kind of what I think is almost more key.
So you've got the teams with three Olympians on them, Detroit, Edmonton,
New York, Philadelphia, Toronto, and Washington.
Speaker 1: You think about last year with the Russia.
Speaker 3: Not being included with the feig nations, and of course
this year not with the Olympics. You know, a few
Russians on there for the Capitals, and you think about
Ovechkin obviously, and you think obviously Tom Wilson went. But
other than that, the defensive core, the goaltending, you know,
and I think that Edmonton obviously, besides Connor McDavid. There's
a lot of options there to look towards betting on them.
Teams with just two players Buffalo Sabers, Columbus Blue Jackets,
and New York Islanders. And the teams with just one player,
the Calgary Flames and the Chicago Blackhawks. Those two teams
with just one player, so again three players, Wings, Oilers, Rangers, Flyers, Leafs, Capitals,
two players Sabers, Jackets, Islanders, and one player Flames and Hawks.
So we'll see if the rested teams are gonna be
all right. Carm I got a five dollars play at
wager Talk in the NHL, and I got a seven
dollars early team total best bet at sportsmemo dot com.
People can get that right now for Wednesday slate in
the NHL. So that's all I've got. We'll wrap it
up and hope keep things going all right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, for me, one one play going in Champions League Soccer.
You can get that for five dollars. I have a
five percent play loaded for tomorrow and Champions League. We
had a winner, an easy rocking chair winner last week
with a Champions League League one play. This one is
a League two play of the knockout stages. And I
have a great deal over on my page where you
can get It's called the Cup to Cup Special where
you get the rest of the NHL season and the
playoffs and then every single World Cup play. I have
a ton of games I'm going to watch this year.
I have tickets to seven different games in the World
Cup and then invited to some other venues as well too,
So I'm definitely looking forward to I'm going to be
traveling Canada and the US to watch the World Cup,
posting videos live from different stadiums. Definitely looking forward to it.
And one quick thing for Lost Kid, our Pittsburgh Penguins fan,
economic Connor Mickdavid set a record for scoring in the
Olympics that had nothing to do with him. He'd hit
his job. At the end of the day, the best
player on the ice was Connor Hellabuck. And this is
why the USA team won and congratulations to them. He
stood on his head. Whether it's literally Figure Levy or
however you want to look at it. Congratulations to the
US team again. That's it for us, guys. We'll be
back tomorrow to break down some games. The press is
joining us and I believe I believe it's Brian Leonard
joining us tomorrow as well too. Don Bust will be
on later on in the week for myself and the
Wager Talk family. Guys, go luck with your bets, hit
that subscribe button, the like button, and drop a comment
in the comments section. We love to hear from you,
and that's it. We're at here.