WEBVTT

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<v Speaker 1>A thirty on a Tuesday. Here fifty five KC the

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<v Speaker 1>talk station. That means it is time for a Daniel

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<v Speaker 1>Davis Deeve Die, Welcome back to lieutenant retired Lieutenant Colonel

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<v Speaker 1>Daniel Davis to give us some warfare analysis. Welcome back, Daniel.

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<v Speaker 1>Always a pleasure to see you and have you on

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<v Speaker 1>the program. Jilotti to be here, Brian can't you can't wait? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's hit the ground running. Another update on the latest

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<v Speaker 1>with Russian and Ukraine. I did I read correctly that

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<v Speaker 1>Zelunsky now wants to have a sit down with Vladimir Putin.

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<v Speaker 1>I thought one of the contingencies for that was a

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<v Speaker 1>declaration of a ceasefire or something, which I don't know

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<v Speaker 1>that the Russians were necessarily interested in, considering the advances

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<v Speaker 1>they're making on the ground in Ukraine. But is there

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<v Speaker 1>is there progress in that direction?

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<v Speaker 2>There is a lot of people talking past one another

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<v Speaker 2>and listening to no one. This is a complete disaster

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<v Speaker 2>right now that has almost no chance of anything happening

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<v Speaker 2>on Thursday. First of all, this started when you had

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<v Speaker 2>the leaders of France, uk Germany and Poland went to

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<v Speaker 2>Kiev to meet with the Zelensky, and they came out

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<v Speaker 2>there and they said, hey, we demand a thirty day

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<v Speaker 2>unconditional ceasefire. We were telling Putin you it's an ultimatum.

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<v Speaker 2>You will do it by Monday. This is on Saturday.

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<v Speaker 2>You will do it by Monday, or we will hit

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<v Speaker 2>you with a bunch of sanctions. In response, Putin didn't

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<v Speaker 2>answer the question. Of course, he's not going to do

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<v Speaker 2>it unconditional thirty d cas far. They've said so from

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<v Speaker 2>the beginning. They've never said anything besides that. And why

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<v Speaker 2>would this stronger power ever submit to a demand by

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<v Speaker 2>this weaker power.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the first point. So Putin didn't answer that.

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<v Speaker 2>But then he did say, you know what to tell

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<v Speaker 2>you what, We're willing to have direct negotiations between Russia

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<v Speaker 2>and Ukraine, and we'll do it in Istanbul on Thursday.

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<v Speaker 2>So you wanted to decease far on Friday, We'll offer

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<v Speaker 2>direct talks on Thursday. No discussion about a ceasefire. We're

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<v Speaker 2>not interested in that. So then it turns out that

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<v Speaker 2>we say that Zelenski tried said, oh, okay, I will

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<v Speaker 2>one up you again. I will go to Istanbul and

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<v Speaker 2>I will meet you. Vladimir Putin personally, you better be there,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, just this mocking kind of thing. And there's

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<v Speaker 2>no way that Putin is gonna just meet with him

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<v Speaker 2>in the natal country istaan bull to try and settle

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<v Speaker 2>this stuff, because they are miles apart on the fundamentals

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<v Speaker 2>of an end of war negotiation. If you can't even

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<v Speaker 2>get to a thirty day ceasefire the two sides can

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<v Speaker 2>agree on, why do you think on Thursday you're gonna

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<v Speaker 2>solve the war?

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<v Speaker 3>Makes no sense at all? Well it doesn't.

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<v Speaker 1>But as we have been typically going back to this posturing,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got to have something to back up your threats.

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<v Speaker 1>You have to have something that is worthy of exchange

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<v Speaker 1>at the negotiation table. And as you've been pointing out

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<v Speaker 1>week after week after week, the Russians keep making gains

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<v Speaker 1>and advances, and more Ukrainian soldiers die, and they become

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<v Speaker 1>weaker and weaker and weaker in terms of their bargaining

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<v Speaker 1>position every single day that passes. Meaning, I guess if

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<v Speaker 1>Plutin would show up there and sit down across the

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<v Speaker 1>table from Zelensky, what would Zelensky have to say? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>And that's the point exactly.

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<v Speaker 2>And I was scouring the headlines and stories before we

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<v Speaker 2>came on the air here today, and there's all this talking,

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, and it's all over the place, and all

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<v Speaker 2>the Western media yea, and the pundits and stuff, and

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<v Speaker 2>they're all saying, we'll see if Putin's actually serious about

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<v Speaker 2>this or not, or if it's just a ploy.

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm like, it's there's no ploy. They're very open.

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<v Speaker 2>About here's our conditions, come and talk about them, and

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<v Speaker 2>if you don't, we'll simply keep fighting. That's what we

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<v Speaker 2>aren't listening to on our side. So there's no way

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<v Speaker 2>that Putin is going to meet with him as a

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<v Speaker 2>first step. I mean, this is what they have offered.

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<v Speaker 2>And what is normal is that you have delegations at

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<v Speaker 2>the appropriate level. That's what Russia said at the beginning

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<v Speaker 2>on Thursday, at the appropriate level, we'll meet directly. No

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<v Speaker 2>one ever offered for Putin to meet with So now

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<v Speaker 2>they're trying to mock Putin and make it look like

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<v Speaker 2>he's hiding. Well, look that works in Western media because

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<v Speaker 2>they're not paying attention anyway. It does nothing on the

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<v Speaker 2>battlefield or a jove reality. That's the problem, Brian. It

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<v Speaker 2>won't change reality. Even if we mock him all week long.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, going back to France, UK, Poland and Germany making

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<v Speaker 1>a stance on this and sort of making the same

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<v Speaker 1>type of demand threatened by sanctions, which I guess is

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<v Speaker 1>an arrow in their quiver, but doesn't Germany kind of

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<v Speaker 1>rely on Russia for its natural gas or to keep

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<v Speaker 1>their country somewhat in running order.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, they have significantly reduced I'm not sure if they

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<v Speaker 2>brought it to zero, but it's significantly reduced with what

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<v Speaker 2>it used to be, and they've getten it from other

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<v Speaker 2>sources now.

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<v Speaker 3>But that's the problem for Germany. The other sources are.

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<v Speaker 2>Substantially higher in per unit cost, so that makes all

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<v Speaker 2>of their industrial output more expensive, and that's had a

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<v Speaker 2>dampening effect on their economy.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, I think that they're probably in a recession

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<v Speaker 3>right now.

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<v Speaker 2>We'll wait till the numbers come out here in a

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<v Speaker 2>little bit, but I think that probably it's been a

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<v Speaker 2>real problem for them.

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<v Speaker 3>But I mean that just puzzles me.

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<v Speaker 2>You got these guys, these four guys there, and you

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<v Speaker 2>know they're all luck in the arms basically and say

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<v Speaker 2>we're going to sings, did you And I'm like, wait,

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<v Speaker 2>that's what we said. Lead led by Joe Biden and

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<v Speaker 2>right when this war started about here where you're going

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<v Speaker 2>to cripple Russia and all this kind of stuff. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>now then bricks has expanded, They're expanding economically in places

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<v Speaker 2>beyond the West. So I'm like, look, if we didn't

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<v Speaker 2>cripple them, then what possible logic can these four guys

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<v Speaker 2>in the leading Western countries think you're going to do

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<v Speaker 2>to them?

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<v Speaker 3>Now? It makes no sense to me at all.

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<v Speaker 1>No, And you know, from a global geopolitical standpoint, that

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<v Speaker 1>did nothing but drive them into the arms of China

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<v Speaker 1>and cozy up there and formalize and create a better

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<v Speaker 1>working relationship with Russia and China, which you know together

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<v Speaker 1>rather for me.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean just together. That's good so far you want

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<v Speaker 3>to double down on that, I don't get it, man, No,

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<v Speaker 3>And you know, got to.

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<v Speaker 1>Go back to the what do there's a combined military

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<v Speaker 1>force of France, UK Poland and Germany amount to in

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<v Speaker 1>the grand scheme of things. I mean, if you put

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<v Speaker 1>all their soldiers on the battlefield together, could they match

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<v Speaker 1>the military might of Russia? Should push come to shove

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<v Speaker 1>hopefully not.

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<v Speaker 3>Not even close.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that cumulative total on paper would be somewhere

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<v Speaker 2>around seven hundred and fifty thousand something like that. Russia

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<v Speaker 2>has one point five million, but none of those guys

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<v Speaker 2>are trained for modern warfare. Russia has three now into

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<v Speaker 2>the fourth year, a very painful experience learned in all

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<v Speaker 2>kinds of technological advances, none of which these guys have.

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<v Speaker 2>Nobody on our side knows anything about what it's like

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<v Speaker 2>to get shelled mercilessly, to be not even afraid to

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<v Speaker 2>look up into the sky because the drones fall in,

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<v Speaker 2>how to do counter drone operations, the electron we don't

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<v Speaker 2>know any of that, Brian. So the disparity, forget the

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<v Speaker 2>numbers on paper, which is about like this, The actual

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<v Speaker 2>capacity is probably more like this.

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<v Speaker 3>That's the reality.

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<v Speaker 1>That's harsh reality, but it is what it is, which

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<v Speaker 1>is suggests, as you've concluded before, and I've reached the conclusion,

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to have to make some major land concessions

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<v Speaker 1>in Ukraine to get this thing done with. And that's

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<v Speaker 1>of course the predicate for Russia is sitting down at

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<v Speaker 1>the table, we're keeping crime here, We're keeping these areas

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<v Speaker 1>that are Russian dominant and Russian populated. That's where we're

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<v Speaker 1>starting from. Or they're just going to keep fighting and

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<v Speaker 1>they'll end up at least on the Danepa River. That's

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<v Speaker 1>my calculation, because I just don't see how the battlefield

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<v Speaker 1>math works any differently. If you keep with this fiction

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<v Speaker 1>that we're going right now, instead of having an ugly

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<v Speaker 1>deal where you could keep most of that stuff from

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<v Speaker 1>where those four provinces are to the river, you're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>end up losing it all and the men that goes

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<v Speaker 1>along with it. It's the worst of all worlds from

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<v Speaker 1>our perspective. I guess that minerals deal wouldn't be worth

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<v Speaker 1>the paper it's written on to come that if that happens, right, Daniel,

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<v Speaker 1>it would not Oh jeez, hey, real quick before we

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<v Speaker 1>part coming today. And it's always interesting, maybe a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit depressing for a lot of folks, but reality Israelate reality,

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<v Speaker 1>and someone's got to point it out. India Pakistan a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of people concerned about World War three breaking out,

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<v Speaker 1>and I know they were swapping shots against each other.

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<v Speaker 1>Kashmir has been an issue between the two countries for

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<v Speaker 1>a long long time. Trump was given some credit for

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<v Speaker 1>negotiating at least a ceasefire between those two countries. You

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<v Speaker 1>see an ongoing concern between those two countries. You think

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<v Speaker 1>they can hammer it out. Yeah, I think they can

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<v Speaker 1>hammer it out. I mean this has been going on.

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<v Speaker 2>The seeds go all the way back to nineteen forty two,

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<v Speaker 2>and then they really start spreading in nineteen forty seven,

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<v Speaker 2>and then it's just been kind of on again, off again.

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<v Speaker 2>There was a clash in twenty sixteen, there was a

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<v Speaker 2>clash in twenty nineteen, and then now this one too.

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<v Speaker 2>And I had John Meersheimer, you know, an international theorist,

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<v Speaker 2>relations theorist, on our show earlier this week, and he

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<v Speaker 2>pointed out he said, there are multiple rungs on the

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<v Speaker 2>escalation ladder before this gets into potential nuclear clash, because

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<v Speaker 2>neither side wants that. And so he predicted, and it's

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<v Speaker 2>turned out that way, that they'll sort this out because

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<v Speaker 2>escalating and going up beyond small hits is bad for

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<v Speaker 2>both sides. And he said he thinks you're going to

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<v Speaker 2>work it out, and he looks like that's what's happened.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and you'd hate to see World War three breakout

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<v Speaker 1>over a terrorist attack. I mean, you think about Archduke

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<v Speaker 1>Ferdinand getting killed leading to the World War. Things like

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<v Speaker 1>that can happen. But fortunately, I guess the leaders realize

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<v Speaker 1>that cooler heads must prevail when both sides have significant

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<v Speaker 1>numbers of nuclear weapons.

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<v Speaker 2>Right yeah, And if they had one, I mean that's

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<v Speaker 2>and you would use it. That's that's that's one too many. Uh,

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<v Speaker 2>and they got both of them have a decent sized stockpile,

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<v Speaker 2>even even Pakistan. And that's the problem because you and

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<v Speaker 2>that's what India understands. Conventionally, India dwarfs Pakistan. Obviously you

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<v Speaker 2>can look at the the size and understand that. But

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<v Speaker 2>the nuclear threshold, I mean, they could just Pakistan could

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<v Speaker 2>devastate India. India knows that. So India will press its

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<v Speaker 2>advantage as far as it can. But they know that

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<v Speaker 2>if they push Pakistan too far, if they go too

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<v Speaker 2>many wrungs up that escalation ladder, then the only thing

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<v Speaker 2>they would leave Pakistan with is to use their their equalizer,

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<v Speaker 2>and they don't want to do that. So so far,

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<v Speaker 2>it looks like that, even though there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>answers between the two sides, there's still is the same thought.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, that's somewhat uplifting news. War's bad news, but at

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<v Speaker 1>least they're not launching nukes. At each other. Daniel Davis

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<v Speaker 1>Deep dive search for it where you find your podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>and then tune in next Tuesday for another edition of

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<v Speaker 1>the program here in fifty five care see the talk

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<v Speaker 1>Talk Station Daniel. Have a great weekend, my friend. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for much pleasure.

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<v Speaker 3>By Francis.

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<v Speaker 1>Next Tuesday, look forward to It's eight forty right now

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<v Speaker 1>I fifty five krs. The Talk Station. Foreign Exchange gets

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<v Speaker 1>you caring to FORIGN exchange like I did just the

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<v Speaker 1>other day. Very expensive