WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.240 --> 00:00:03.799 Now I can't stand it. This is an outrage. 2 00:00:04.080 --> 00:00:06.320 We've crossed over from insult to outrage. 3 00:00:06.559 --> 00:00:11.640 Ask not what your country can do for you, Ask 4 00:00:11.759 --> 00:00:16.719 what you can do for your country. Mister Gorbichaw, tear 5 00:00:16.960 --> 00:00:21.879 down this wall. It's the Ricochet Podcast with Peter Robinson, 6 00:00:21.960 --> 00:00:24.800 Charles C. W. Cook and I'm an AI version of 7 00:00:24.879 --> 00:00:28.000 James Lylax today with our guest, Lieutenant General h har 8 00:00:28.079 --> 00:00:33.759 McMaster talking about global battlespace preparation. Let's have ourselves a podcast. 9 00:00:34.320 --> 00:00:36.640 They say the country is on the wrong track. You've 10 00:00:36.640 --> 00:00:38.640 been in office for three and a half years. 11 00:00:39.200 --> 00:00:43.119 And Donald Trump has been running for office, so you've 12 00:00:43.119 --> 00:00:45.000 been the person holding the office. 13 00:00:45.359 --> 00:00:47.200 You and I both know what I'm talking about. 14 00:00:47.359 --> 00:00:49.079 You and I both know what I'm going to Actually, 15 00:00:49.320 --> 00:00:51.840 what are you talking about? I agree you'll never get 16 00:00:51.840 --> 00:00:55.799 bored with when we never get bored. Welcome everybody to 17 00:00:55.840 --> 00:00:59.640 the Ricochet Podcast, number seven hundred and thirteen. I'm Stephen 18 00:00:59.640 --> 00:01:02.439 Hayward doing my best to be an AI bought version 19 00:01:02.479 --> 00:01:05.200 of James Lilacs. Remember last week he's threatened that this 20 00:01:05.280 --> 00:01:08.519 might be in our future and joining me as always 21 00:01:08.599 --> 00:01:13.760 right now, Peter Robinson and Charles C. W. Cook. So 22 00:01:13.799 --> 00:01:16.719 I'm gonna skip over James's provocation from last week about 23 00:01:16.719 --> 00:01:19.799 whether we may all be obsolete because of Ai soon. 24 00:01:19.920 --> 00:01:23.280 I actually heard a draft podcast this week and it 25 00:01:23.359 --> 00:01:27.640 was terrifying at how smooth it was, and so forth. Okay, instead, 26 00:01:27.879 --> 00:01:30.159 let's think a little bit about starting. 27 00:01:30.200 --> 00:01:30.879 How do we know you? 28 00:01:31.000 --> 00:01:32.159 Are you right now? 29 00:01:32.599 --> 00:01:33.560 That's a good question. 30 00:01:35.200 --> 00:01:37.200 You can see me, can't you. Of course, you've always 31 00:01:37.239 --> 00:01:41.200 had a little hard to believe, Steve, All right, now, 32 00:01:41.239 --> 00:01:45.439 behave yourself, Peter, let's start here. I'm starting to feel 33 00:01:45.480 --> 00:01:50.000 like there is no October surprise. It's kind of groundhog week. 34 00:01:50.079 --> 00:01:53.879 I mean, we had another Israeli victory on the battlefield, 35 00:01:54.319 --> 00:01:57.239 we had another shaky performance, actually more than one from 36 00:01:57.319 --> 00:02:00.239 Kamala Harris, and we have a whole bunch of new 37 00:02:00.239 --> 00:02:03.040 polls out showing the race is still a dead heat. 38 00:02:03.799 --> 00:02:05.400 There anything change this week? I mean, there are a 39 00:02:05.400 --> 00:02:07.200 couple of things to bring up, but go ahead, Peas 40 00:02:07.599 --> 00:02:09.960 something changed? Good? What was? What changed? 41 00:02:10.039 --> 00:02:14.080 There was an immensely significant event and I'm not even 42 00:02:14.159 --> 00:02:17.719 kidding how it will make its way into politics when 43 00:02:18.000 --> 00:02:21.919 I do not know, but the SpaceX recapture of the 44 00:02:21.960 --> 00:02:27.560 Booster rocket was a staggering moment, and it did Victor 45 00:02:27.680 --> 00:02:30.400 Davis Hansen. I caught fick well. I ran into Victor yesterday. 46 00:02:30.479 --> 00:02:33.560 Victor got it immediately. I saw him on Laura Ingram 47 00:02:33.639 --> 00:02:36.199 later that evening. The rest of the world hasn't gotten it, 48 00:02:36.240 --> 00:02:37.800 and I'm not sure the rest of the world will, 49 00:02:38.360 --> 00:02:42.680 but Victor got it immediately. This race, in some ways 50 00:02:42.719 --> 00:02:46.759 the entire culture is now between those who want to 51 00:02:46.879 --> 00:02:51.039 lecture the rest of us and those who want to build. 52 00:02:51.680 --> 00:02:54.000 Yeah, by the way, there's a great you know, the 53 00:02:54.360 --> 00:02:57.639 great geniuses at the Babylon b One of their headlines 54 00:02:57.680 --> 00:03:01.759 out this week is Nassa baffled at how Elon Musk 55 00:03:02.080 --> 00:03:05.479 managed to succeed without as many gay, don binary, Muslim 56 00:03:05.560 --> 00:03:12.039 dwarfs of color as they have. Yes, yes, right, And. 57 00:03:10.879 --> 00:03:13.240 This is the running argument that James Lilacs and I 58 00:03:13.280 --> 00:03:15.639 have been having. James thinks I'm opposed to space travel 59 00:03:15.719 --> 00:03:18.199 space not at all. I'm opposed to doing that on 60 00:03:18.319 --> 00:03:21.120 taxpayer money. During the Cold War, you could argue that 61 00:03:21.120 --> 00:03:23.360 it was an extension of the war itself, that it 62 00:03:23.400 --> 00:03:25.319 was in the public interest to get to the Okay, 63 00:03:26.120 --> 00:03:29.120 Elon Musk did what he did on the money of 64 00:03:29.159 --> 00:03:33.080 private investors. NASA has failed to do what Elon Musk 65 00:03:33.120 --> 00:03:36.719 did by squandering our money, that in any of it. 66 00:03:37.120 --> 00:03:39.520 So I want to hear what you boys think of that. 67 00:03:39.560 --> 00:03:42.039 Am I onto something there? Excuse me? I know I'm 68 00:03:42.039 --> 00:03:43.439 onto something I wanted to see if the two of 69 00:03:43.479 --> 00:03:44.919 you are clever enough to pick up on it. 70 00:03:45.240 --> 00:03:47.960 Well, you may have missed Charlie's fine piece about Elon 71 00:03:48.039 --> 00:03:50.800 Musk a couple of days ago. So Charlie, Charlie. 72 00:03:50.479 --> 00:03:53.479 Writes faster than I can read, So I'm sorry. I 73 00:03:53.639 --> 00:03:55.120 refuse to feel guilty about that. 74 00:03:55.680 --> 00:03:58.479 Charlie, give us your take on that and plug your 75 00:03:58.479 --> 00:03:59.199 piece if you like. 76 00:03:59.719 --> 00:03:59.960 Wow. 77 00:04:00.000 --> 00:04:06.360 Well, the piece was about the myopic habit of focusing 78 00:04:06.439 --> 00:04:10.960 primarily on Trump as politician rather than his genius inventor. 79 00:04:11.479 --> 00:04:13.000 And the problem with doing that is. 80 00:04:12.960 --> 00:04:20.600 That we rightly allow much less eccentricity in our politicians 81 00:04:21.319 --> 00:04:24.839 than in our inventors. For example, we would not have 82 00:04:24.920 --> 00:04:27.839 wanted Henry Ford to win his Senate race, but he 83 00:04:28.040 --> 00:04:32.040 was nevertheless a great titan of industry. 84 00:04:32.879 --> 00:04:35.040 And I worry a. 85 00:04:35.040 --> 00:04:39.040 Little bit that by this monomon I will focus on 86 00:04:40.120 --> 00:04:44.160 Elon Musk's politics. We're going to see and are seeing 87 00:04:44.680 --> 00:04:47.600 an attempt to cancel him and ignore what he's doing 88 00:04:48.600 --> 00:04:52.560 in industry, which is utterly extraordinary. And he is the 89 00:04:52.759 --> 00:04:55.439 great genius of the era. Now, is he also a weirdo? 90 00:04:56.000 --> 00:05:00.759 Is he also a cheetah on his romantic partner? Is 91 00:05:01.040 --> 00:05:03.319 he also susceptible to conspiracy theories? 92 00:05:03.360 --> 00:05:03.639 Short? 93 00:05:03.839 --> 00:05:06.240 But those are probably the same instincts that have led 94 00:05:06.319 --> 00:05:13.439 him to revolutionize space travel and banking and cars and 95 00:05:14.000 --> 00:05:18.279 satellite internet and maybe eventually link the brain to a computer. 96 00:05:18.519 --> 00:05:21.720 So my lament was that I'm seeing pieces in the 97 00:05:21.759 --> 00:05:24.399 New Republic saying he's an idiot who's good at nothing. 98 00:05:24.839 --> 00:05:28.800 I think the space question that Peter raises is a 99 00:05:28.839 --> 00:05:31.639 fascinating one. My view of it is just that we 100 00:05:31.680 --> 00:05:35.279 have now evolved past the need for any government involvement 101 00:05:35.399 --> 00:05:39.079 at all. And you see this here in Florida where 102 00:05:39.240 --> 00:05:44.319 at Cape Canaveral. There is an attempt underway to turn 103 00:05:44.399 --> 00:05:49.000 this into a site for private enterprise, but that does 104 00:05:49.079 --> 00:05:52.279 require a bit of conversion. Back in the day when 105 00:05:52.360 --> 00:05:54.399 NASA was in charge and use Cape Canaveral for the 106 00:05:54.399 --> 00:06:00.360 Apollo program and other launches. For example, you couldn't launch 107 00:06:00.399 --> 00:06:03.959 more than one rocket from a given site at a time. 108 00:06:04.879 --> 00:06:08.519 The system was set up to be centrally controlled, and 109 00:06:08.639 --> 00:06:12.480 as a result, if you had person on launch Pad 110 00:06:12.519 --> 00:06:14.800 A and person on launch Pad B who wanted to 111 00:06:15.879 --> 00:06:18.439 launch their rockets within say, five or six hours of 112 00:06:18.439 --> 00:06:20.519 each other, you couldn't do it because the pipes that 113 00:06:20.560 --> 00:06:22.680 transmit the fuel were just not set up for this. 114 00:06:23.839 --> 00:06:26.920 NASA being in control of the master plan and so on, 115 00:06:27.240 --> 00:06:30.639 well that needs to change because the eventual plan is 116 00:06:30.680 --> 00:06:32.439 to have rockets coming in and out, and a bit 117 00:06:32.560 --> 00:06:34.439 like in an airport, although you have to deal with 118 00:06:34.519 --> 00:06:38.199 air traffic control, you don't tell each airline when they 119 00:06:38.240 --> 00:06:39.759 can do this, that or the other. 120 00:06:40.680 --> 00:06:43.439 You don't have a master plan, you just coordinate. 121 00:06:44.319 --> 00:06:46.480 So it seems to me that we are in the 122 00:06:46.519 --> 00:06:51.360 midst of transmuting what was the government monopoly for good reasons, 123 00:06:51.480 --> 00:06:54.560 the Cold War being one of them, into private enterprise. 124 00:06:55.120 --> 00:06:57.680 And I think we're actually getting it right. I think 125 00:06:57.759 --> 00:07:01.040 we're creating infrastructure to do which is going to be great. 126 00:07:01.480 --> 00:07:06.480 Kanessa has become as completely unnecessary, as totally outavistic as NPR. 127 00:07:07.319 --> 00:07:10.800 Yeah, yes, but you know, my father was mixed up 128 00:07:10.839 --> 00:07:14.000 in both Apollo and UH and and the Gemini program 129 00:07:14.000 --> 00:07:15.639 before it, and he had a company. 130 00:07:15.279 --> 00:07:16.399 That didn't know that. 131 00:07:16.720 --> 00:07:18.360 Oh I never told you the story. Well I should 132 00:07:18.360 --> 00:07:21.839 have because among the things my father's company made was 133 00:07:21.879 --> 00:07:25.800 the parashue release relays and timers for Apollo, and the 134 00:07:25.920 --> 00:07:30.360 stage separation timers for both Gemini and Apollo, and. 135 00:07:29.759 --> 00:07:32.879 Congratulations, as I recall, all of that always worked. 136 00:07:33.160 --> 00:07:36.040 Always worked. Although you know, he's a subtext the whole 137 00:07:36.040 --> 00:07:38.639 Apollo thirteen story because I didn't make the movie of 138 00:07:38.680 --> 00:07:41.959 the book. But you know, engineers up all night long 139 00:07:42.120 --> 00:07:44.560 running tests. How you know, we know what the what 140 00:07:44.600 --> 00:07:47.439 the amperage specs are. Will it still work at a 141 00:07:47.480 --> 00:07:50.399 lower amperage spec the other okay? Uh? And you know 142 00:07:50.680 --> 00:07:53.360 since time, as we know from that very fine movie 143 00:07:53.399 --> 00:07:55.519 about it now. One of the things that he used 144 00:07:55.519 --> 00:07:57.680 to reflect on is they were in such a hurry 145 00:07:57.720 --> 00:08:00.519 to get to the moon. Because I also a love 146 00:08:00.519 --> 00:08:03.879 defense contracting for jet fire planes and helicopters, and he 147 00:08:04.160 --> 00:08:06.240 was telling me later about it was quite a contrast 148 00:08:06.279 --> 00:08:09.720 between dealing with the Pentagon and especially MacNamara's wiz kids 149 00:08:10.160 --> 00:08:12.920 about developing some fire planes, including the F one to eleven, 150 00:08:12.920 --> 00:08:14.639 which is really a dud, but that was one of 151 00:08:14.680 --> 00:08:18.959 those genius ideas of McNamara's people. But he said in Apollo, 152 00:08:19.120 --> 00:08:21.879 because Kennedy had set that date, certain, we want to 153 00:08:21.920 --> 00:08:24.839 be there. You know, eight nine years from now. NASA 154 00:08:25.000 --> 00:08:28.199 did not have time to bureaucratize. They were in a 155 00:08:28.279 --> 00:08:31.279 hurry to get things done. And today, I mean the 156 00:08:31.360 --> 00:08:33.279 kind of I won't say it cut corners in an 157 00:08:33.399 --> 00:08:35.440 unsafe way, but they were in such a hurry that 158 00:08:36.000 --> 00:08:39.200 you couldn't slow it down with endless review processes and bureaucracy. 159 00:08:39.399 --> 00:08:41.879 And you know, they trusted the engineers to make things work. 160 00:08:42.200 --> 00:08:44.360 And you know, one of them was actually I think 161 00:08:44.360 --> 00:08:47.799 it was the very second Apollo mission, Apollo twelve. You know, 162 00:08:47.840 --> 00:08:51.480 the the rocket takes off, it was struck by lightning 163 00:08:51.960 --> 00:08:56.519 and everything went dead. And now it turned out that yo, say, excuse. 164 00:08:56.200 --> 00:08:58.240 Me, I can't remember. Was that shortly after or shortly 165 00:08:58.240 --> 00:09:01.039 before takeoff? I remember the end right for takeoff. So 166 00:09:01.240 --> 00:09:03.799 it's like a minute of takeoff, I think, because you know, 167 00:09:03.799 --> 00:09:05.919 it's still within the atmosphere, but it's under Oh yeah, 168 00:09:05.960 --> 00:09:06.879 it's a sending. 169 00:09:06.639 --> 00:09:09.360 All right. And you know they and you know these 170 00:09:09.440 --> 00:09:11.399 days and they turn around, they look at all these 171 00:09:11.440 --> 00:09:14.200 young twenty eight year old engineers and their ties and protectors, 172 00:09:14.200 --> 00:09:16.000 and they said, no, we're good to go. Just flip 173 00:09:16.080 --> 00:09:18.879 these reset things and they'll be fine. And today they 174 00:09:18.879 --> 00:09:20.679 would never allow that to happen, right, I mean, it 175 00:09:20.679 --> 00:09:23.840 would be immediately scrubbed and anyway. So it's a whole 176 00:09:23.840 --> 00:09:26.840 different ethic then, and now forget about it. It's just 177 00:09:26.840 --> 00:09:29.759 another big sludge cludge filled bureaucracy. 178 00:09:30.240 --> 00:09:32.799 Which is if everything we know about Elon, what comes 179 00:09:32.799 --> 00:09:36.559 through again in the Isaacson biography again and again and again, 180 00:09:37.000 --> 00:09:40.759 is that Elon is now the forcing function faster, faster, faster, 181 00:09:41.200 --> 00:09:44.480 three people move faster. It's just, oh, by the way, 182 00:09:44.559 --> 00:09:46.480 So there's another little angle of this while we're waiting 183 00:09:46.519 --> 00:09:49.840 for our guest. That comes again to the Constitution of 184 00:09:49.840 --> 00:09:52.600 the United States and why one feature in particular is 185 00:09:52.600 --> 00:09:55.039 so glorious at the current moment, and that is federalism. 186 00:09:55.679 --> 00:10:00.240 Because the California Coastal Commission, much beloved of Stephen Hayward 187 00:10:00.679 --> 00:10:04.639 because it protects his view between his estate in Cambria 188 00:10:04.720 --> 00:10:08.720 and the rolling hills down the Pacific, has now denied 189 00:10:08.799 --> 00:10:13.320 Elon Musk permission to increase the number of takeoffs on 190 00:10:13.559 --> 00:10:18.080 obviously political grounds. It is an outrage. Does Texas even 191 00:10:18.200 --> 00:10:21.039 dream of doing any such thing, of course, not yet 192 00:10:21.080 --> 00:10:23.559 another reason why God blesses Texas. 193 00:10:23.879 --> 00:10:27.200 Yeah, but also why, as you say, God bless his federalism, 194 00:10:27.240 --> 00:10:32.120 and why the centralization of this is a bad idea. Obviously, 195 00:10:32.120 --> 00:10:34.679 when it comes to launching rockets, you can't just do 196 00:10:34.759 --> 00:10:36.879 it from anywhere. You have to be on a line. 197 00:10:37.000 --> 00:10:44.039 And that's why Florida, California, and Texas are the best sites. 198 00:10:44.159 --> 00:10:49.879 You can't just move to Minnesota, for example. But the 199 00:10:49.919 --> 00:10:53.879 sites that are eligible are now all fighting with one 200 00:10:53.919 --> 00:10:57.120 another for this business. And so Florida, and I know 201 00:10:57.159 --> 00:10:58.879 this because I went down and I visited it a 202 00:10:58.879 --> 00:11:02.399 few years ago. Florida is desperate to be the hub, 203 00:11:02.919 --> 00:11:07.360 and it's envious of Texas, and it's envious of California. 204 00:11:07.799 --> 00:11:10.559 And although California seems to be shooting yourself in the 205 00:11:10.559 --> 00:11:15.600 foot as usual, you are going to see this competition 206 00:11:15.840 --> 00:11:22.039 between these various sites driven by eventually private enterprise, where 207 00:11:22.080 --> 00:11:24.360 they say no, no, no, don't launch your rockets from Texas, 208 00:11:24.679 --> 00:11:27.399 you know, come and launch them here, which is just incredible. 209 00:11:27.600 --> 00:11:29.799 It's just an incredible thought relative to how NASA was 210 00:11:29.840 --> 00:11:30.799 run fifty years ago. 211 00:11:31.120 --> 00:11:35.720 Well, one concluding comment and our guest has arrived. Peter, 212 00:11:35.840 --> 00:11:37.200 I hate the Coastal Commissions. 213 00:11:37.399 --> 00:11:38.000 I know you do. 214 00:11:38.159 --> 00:11:41.279 I know it was provoking. You see, God, I wasn't 215 00:11:41.320 --> 00:11:44.600 sure that people might believe you. You're so authoritative. There's 216 00:11:44.639 --> 00:11:48.519 one real puzzle to me, which is the Vandenburg Air 217 00:11:48.559 --> 00:11:51.559 Force Base is a federal facility, and I don't understand 218 00:11:51.559 --> 00:11:54.399 how the State Coastal Commission has any legal jurisdiction over 219 00:11:54.440 --> 00:11:58.039 it at all. And my counterexample to this is Berkeley, 220 00:11:58.159 --> 00:12:00.960 where I have a picture somewhere of me posing by 221 00:12:00.960 --> 00:12:03.360 the city limits sign where they've attached to sign saying 222 00:12:03.399 --> 00:12:06.879 Berkeley a nuclear free zone. And up above me in 223 00:12:06.919 --> 00:12:09.840 the picture is the Lawrence Livermore Lab where they do 224 00:12:09.919 --> 00:12:13.240 weapons research and still have a working ternastic that had 225 00:12:13.279 --> 00:12:15.919 never occurred to me. Of course, it's a federal facility 226 00:12:16.039 --> 00:12:18.360 beyond the reach of the Berkeley City Council. So there's 227 00:12:18.360 --> 00:12:20.080 something strange going on here. 228 00:12:20.200 --> 00:12:22.120 Steve, Just as a final point before we go to 229 00:12:22.200 --> 00:12:24.120 I guess this is one of the issues I was 230 00:12:24.200 --> 00:12:26.840 told that Florida was having to deal with as well, 231 00:12:27.039 --> 00:12:30.320 is that you have these layers of permission that are necessary, 232 00:12:30.320 --> 00:12:33.039 and they were trying to simplify it. So with Cape Canaveral. 233 00:12:33.120 --> 00:12:35.440 Apparently before you could launch a rocket. I think they've 234 00:12:35.519 --> 00:12:38.240 changed this. You needed permission from the military because it 235 00:12:38.279 --> 00:12:41.480 was the military installation is adjacent to it. You need 236 00:12:41.519 --> 00:12:45.000 permission from the FAA because it's airspace, and you needed 237 00:12:45.039 --> 00:12:48.320 permission from various Florida organizations. And to try and make 238 00:12:48.360 --> 00:12:50.879 it more attractive, they've been trying to rationalize that so 239 00:12:50.919 --> 00:12:53.799 that it's only one institution that has to give permission. 240 00:12:53.960 --> 00:12:56.600 So I imagine you need to do something similar in California 241 00:12:56.679 --> 00:12:57.080 as well. 242 00:12:57.720 --> 00:13:00.960 Could be but it's crazy except that here would be impossible, 243 00:13:02.120 --> 00:13:04.600 right christ You know, one of the things missing from 244 00:13:04.600 --> 00:13:06.720 the campaign this year, it seems to me, is a 245 00:13:06.759 --> 00:13:09.360 lot of talk about climate change. It's an unpopular issue 246 00:13:09.399 --> 00:13:11.919 for Democrats, but you know, they're always heckoring us in 247 00:13:12.000 --> 00:13:15.279 off years on our carbon footprint. But you know what's 248 00:13:15.320 --> 00:13:18.679 even bigger than your carbon footprint. 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It's in Cognity, I ncog 278 00:15:03.120 --> 00:15:08.000 ni dot com backslash Ricochet, and we thank in Cognity 279 00:15:08.039 --> 00:15:12.159 for being a new sponsor of this the Ricochet Podcast. Well, 280 00:15:12.279 --> 00:15:14.120 let's the turn of our guest by saying that if 281 00:15:14.159 --> 00:15:17.559 the Ricochet Podcast had a frequent guest program, I think 282 00:15:17.840 --> 00:15:21.200 our guests, General hr McMaster would have gold level status. 283 00:15:21.720 --> 00:15:26.720 General McMaster has joined us several times before. Retired lieutenant 284 00:15:26.759 --> 00:15:29.639 general in the US Army, author of several fine books, 285 00:15:29.679 --> 00:15:33.080 including his most recent one, At War with our Selves, 286 00:15:33.320 --> 00:15:36.559 My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House. General McMaster, 287 00:15:36.720 --> 00:15:38.320 welcome back to the Ricochet Podcast. 288 00:15:38.360 --> 00:15:39.720 Hey Steve, great to be with you. 289 00:15:41.039 --> 00:15:44.720 So I've got a cind of a wild opening question 290 00:15:44.840 --> 00:15:46.480 for you that I didn't prepare you for, and so 291 00:15:46.559 --> 00:15:49.879 I'm going to make you improvise. You know, The Bulletin 292 00:15:49.960 --> 00:15:53.279 of Atomic Scientists have had their famous doomsday clock since 293 00:15:53.360 --> 00:15:57.039 nineteen forty seven, which is currently at ninety seconds to midnight, 294 00:15:57.279 --> 00:16:00.480 starting from seven minutes to midnight originally, and it's gone 295 00:16:00.519 --> 00:16:02.759 up and down some now. By the way, the primary 296 00:16:02.840 --> 00:16:05.440 driver is not nuclear war as it was say in 297 00:16:05.480 --> 00:16:08.559 the Cuban missile crisis. It's climate change, because of course 298 00:16:08.799 --> 00:16:11.919 everything reduces to climate change. That's a setup for saying 299 00:16:12.279 --> 00:16:16.080 if there were a McMaster scale for the prospect of 300 00:16:16.399 --> 00:16:19.480 global war or major international conflict. And I don't know 301 00:16:19.480 --> 00:16:21.039 if you want to go one to ten a to 302 00:16:21.120 --> 00:16:25.879 z clock to midnight. As I look around at Russia, Ukraine, 303 00:16:25.919 --> 00:16:29.360 which is increasingly tense, the Middle East obviously with Israel 304 00:16:29.360 --> 00:16:33.519 and Iran and other conflicts, where on the McMaster scale 305 00:16:33.559 --> 00:16:39.519 of potential worry of a widening global confrontation are we, Steve. 306 00:16:39.279 --> 00:16:41.120 I think we're at an eight. And I think we're 307 00:16:41.120 --> 00:16:43.360 at eight because of a couple of reasons. First of all, 308 00:16:43.519 --> 00:16:46.200 is this coalescing of what I would call an axis 309 00:16:46.240 --> 00:16:49.480 of aggressors, and this, of course is China, Russia, Iran 310 00:16:49.639 --> 00:16:51.639 and North Korea, and the degree to which they are 311 00:16:51.720 --> 00:16:55.480 aiding and ambtting one another to accomplish their objectives. For China, 312 00:16:55.759 --> 00:16:58.720 of course, their objective is to create an exclusionary area 313 00:16:58.759 --> 00:17:01.759 of privacy across the Indo Pacific and to create new 314 00:17:01.759 --> 00:17:06.079 spheres of influence internationally. For Russia and Putin's to re 315 00:17:06.279 --> 00:17:09.960 establish the Russian Empire, to restore Russia to national greatness. 316 00:17:10.039 --> 00:17:12.640 For Iran, it's to kick the United States out of 317 00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:15.359 the Middle East as the first step in surrounding and 318 00:17:15.359 --> 00:17:18.599 destroying Israel. And for North Korea, their objective is to 319 00:17:18.640 --> 00:17:21.839 reunify the peninsula under the red banner. Right. So they 320 00:17:21.839 --> 00:17:25.599 have different objectives, but they see their interests overlapping, and 321 00:17:25.799 --> 00:17:28.319 they have a common interest in tearing down the existing 322 00:17:28.359 --> 00:17:32.119 international order and creating the chaos that they need to 323 00:17:32.119 --> 00:17:36.119 accomplish their objectives. The second reason, beyond the coalescing of 324 00:17:36.160 --> 00:17:41.000 the aggressors, is their perception of weakness, their perception that we, 325 00:17:41.240 --> 00:17:45.000 the United States and our allies and partners internationally, lack 326 00:17:45.119 --> 00:17:48.559 the resolve to be able to confront that aggression. And 327 00:17:48.599 --> 00:17:51.880 I think it is the perception of weakness that is 328 00:17:52.279 --> 00:17:53.799 what is provocative these days. 329 00:17:55.279 --> 00:17:58.920 Hey, hr Peter here, I want to spend a moment 330 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:01.799 flattering you. I was listening to you at the Hoover 331 00:18:01.839 --> 00:18:04.559 Institution yesterday, you know the presentation you did, And I 332 00:18:04.640 --> 00:18:07.880 was in the audience, and a young VC was sitting 333 00:18:07.920 --> 00:18:10.960 next to me and he said, that guy is amazing. 334 00:18:12.079 --> 00:18:16.400 He was trained as a warrior, and you were. You 335 00:18:16.440 --> 00:18:20.559 speak on public affairs yours, and you have become You 336 00:18:20.640 --> 00:18:24.960 became a serious historian. I mean, and the warrior bit 337 00:18:25.359 --> 00:18:29.440 tends to get forgotten about because because you blather so successfully. 338 00:18:29.599 --> 00:18:29.880 Hr. 339 00:18:30.720 --> 00:18:32.960 But we should note. We should note that you were 340 00:18:32.960 --> 00:18:36.480 in command of one of the most important tank engagements 341 00:18:36.519 --> 00:18:38.759 since the Second World War. We won't go into the details, 342 00:18:38.759 --> 00:18:42.000 but the Iraqi's lost every single tank and under you, 343 00:18:42.119 --> 00:18:44.720 our guys suffered not a single casualty. Anyway, you're a 344 00:18:44.759 --> 00:18:51.559 pretty remarkable guy. Here's the question, my question Ukraine and Israel. 345 00:18:54.039 --> 00:18:59.079 Our country seems it may be as a matter of 346 00:18:59.119 --> 00:19:02.519 policy that we a lot of stalemate in Ukraine. Here's 347 00:19:02.559 --> 00:19:06.279 what's happened in Ukraine. A bunch of technosavvy Ukrainian kids 348 00:19:07.000 --> 00:19:10.839 have saved their country by figuring out how to use 349 00:19:10.960 --> 00:19:16.200 Jerry Rigg drones to open up a naval passage along 350 00:19:16.240 --> 00:19:18.799 the coast of Ukraine, so that all though Ukraine does 351 00:19:18.839 --> 00:19:21.920 not have a navy, they force the Russians off so 352 00:19:21.960 --> 00:19:24.640 that they can continue to ship grain. They keep the 353 00:19:24.720 --> 00:19:28.680 Russians on the defensive, they prevent the Russians from advancing, 354 00:19:28.720 --> 00:19:32.200 They force them to dig in. It's a lot of 355 00:19:32.200 --> 00:19:34.519 our aid, it's tremendous bravery, but it's a bunch of 356 00:19:34.599 --> 00:19:38.839 technosavvy kids. We have a Pentagon with a budget of 357 00:19:39.000 --> 00:19:43.960 eight hundred billion dollars. The procurement process is sludge. Then 358 00:19:44.000 --> 00:19:48.000 we turn to Israel. The Biden administration has spent basically 359 00:19:48.039 --> 00:19:50.960 a year now telling bb Net and Yahoo and the 360 00:19:51.000 --> 00:19:56.680 IDF go slowly, just tap them, don't punch them, don't 361 00:19:56.680 --> 00:20:01.119 clean them out. No, no, no, And at some point 362 00:20:01.160 --> 00:20:04.079 BIB and the IDF said that's enough. This is our 363 00:20:04.079 --> 00:20:07.640 country we're fighting for. And they've destroyed AMAS and they've 364 00:20:07.680 --> 00:20:11.039 gone in and and who knows how bad the damage. 365 00:20:11.359 --> 00:20:15.119 They've reasserted the invincibility or at least the prestige of 366 00:20:15.160 --> 00:20:18.559 the masade of the IDF, of their air force, and 367 00:20:19.079 --> 00:20:22.759 they and they've attacked Iran. Now, I mean it's an 368 00:20:23.039 --> 00:20:26.480 So on the one hand, why the heck are we 369 00:20:26.559 --> 00:20:30.480 letting Zelensky run our policy? Why are we permitting BIB 370 00:20:30.640 --> 00:20:34.160 to be in the position of provoking enemies to the 371 00:20:34.200 --> 00:20:37.440 extent that we may have to And At the other hand, 372 00:20:37.480 --> 00:20:38.759 why aren't we kissing their asses. 373 00:20:39.480 --> 00:20:40.279 It's a very. 374 00:20:40.119 --> 00:20:43.039 Strange position to be in. It's a very strange position 375 00:20:43.079 --> 00:20:44.799 to be in. But what it comes down to is 376 00:20:45.279 --> 00:20:47.720 we should be learning lessons from them. Isn't there something 377 00:20:47.759 --> 00:20:48.039 to that? 378 00:20:48.920 --> 00:20:50.359 I think there's a lot to that. I think what 379 00:20:50.440 --> 00:20:53.160 you can learn, you know, from the Ukrainians is that 380 00:20:53.240 --> 00:20:55.519 you know, war's not the best way of settling differences, 381 00:20:55.839 --> 00:20:58.559 is G. K. Chesterton observed, But it may be the 382 00:20:58.559 --> 00:21:01.279 only way to ensure they're not setting for you. And 383 00:21:01.400 --> 00:21:04.079 the Ukrainians understand that. So we keep trying to give 384 00:21:04.119 --> 00:21:06.799 them just enough for them to defend themselves, but not 385 00:21:06.960 --> 00:21:10.759 enough to really win and prevail. And of course, in war, 386 00:21:10.960 --> 00:21:14.920 you know, as the Prussian philosopher work Carl von Klausot's observe, 387 00:21:14.960 --> 00:21:17.599 each side tries to outdo the other. So if you're 388 00:21:17.599 --> 00:21:21.319 not trying to outdo your enemy, overmatch your enemy, you 389 00:21:21.319 --> 00:21:24.160 are to profound disadvantage and you see the initiative to 390 00:21:24.200 --> 00:21:26.759 your enemy. So I think this has been the tension 391 00:21:27.119 --> 00:21:31.400 between you know, Zelenski and the Biden administration, is that 392 00:21:31.440 --> 00:21:34.799 we're meeting out that assistance. We're debating every different type 393 00:21:34.839 --> 00:21:37.960 of weapon system the permissions to those use those weapon 394 00:21:38.000 --> 00:21:41.160 systems in a way that would allow them to stop 395 00:21:41.200 --> 00:21:44.960 the Russian onslaught with these long range missiles, for example. 396 00:21:45.000 --> 00:21:48.400 But the innovation part of this is immensely important. I 397 00:21:48.400 --> 00:21:53.000 think there's a recognition now that these commercially developed technologies 398 00:21:53.200 --> 00:21:55.680 have a direct implication to defense and have to be 399 00:21:55.759 --> 00:21:59.400 accelerated into our own arsenals. What we have seen are 400 00:21:59.480 --> 00:22:04.240 these of asymmetric capabilities like first person view drones at 401 00:22:04.319 --> 00:22:07.440