Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to the Dynasty Dude Podcast. I'm you Heroes,
Corey Evans, it's here Week three. I have the player
panic meter where I go one through five, one being
the least concerned, two three, four, five being the most concerned.
Speaker 2: Player value player outlook. Now that we have.
Speaker 1: Almost a quarter of the fantasy football regular season underway,
forget to that. If you are unsure of where to
go from here, or you just want to touch base
on your team, hit me up for a roster call
over on Google Meet thirty bucks thirty minutes, fifty dollars
one hour. You could do so by sending me an
email to Dynastydopod atgmail dot com, or simply DM me
on a social media platforms at Dynasty pod on all
of those social media accounts. So you don't want to
over underreact when it comes to short or long term
dynasty value. However, it's human nature to see your team
at three and oho two and one one and two
zero to three and either be in a good position
or flat out panicking. The key here is to assess
what the data is telling us and then make an informed, logical,
rational decision without selling two high or too low.
Speaker 2: On an asset.
Speaker 1: So I have five examples of players I think fall
into that player panic meter and what to do from
here on out. Up first with a one out of five,
as in, I am not concerned about this player whatsoever.
Speaker 2: It's Garrett Wilson.
Speaker 1: Week one at the forty nine ers six catches, sixty yards,
ten yards per grab, eleven targets, ninety six percent of snaps.
Week two at Tennessee four grabs fifty seven yards fourteen
point two five yards per catch on six targets, once
again a ninety six percent snap rates. Week three versus
New England finally found the end zone receptions thirty three
yards that touchdown only six point six yards per catch,
so a low eight hot nine targets, and a slight
dip in snap percentage at eighty eight percent. All in all,
Aaron Rodgers has credited Wilson's relatively slow start compared expectations
to opposing defense is keying in on Garrett with cover
two schemes.
Speaker 2: Makes a lot of sense.
Speaker 1: A lot of teams are deploying cover two to just
absorb or take out of the equation a team's top
pass catcher or player in general. On offense, Wilson's natural
talent remains otherworldly Unlike their previous seasons, However, their stiffer
competition for volume in the Jets offense with Breese Hall,
Braylon Allen that won two punch at running back, Alan Lazard,
Mike Williams as he gains more and more health from
the torny acl last year at wide receiver, and even
Tyler Conklin if we saw in week three he could
have some spike production when called upon. That shows with
twenty six targets for Garrett Wilson across three weeks to date,
not necessarily alpha numbers for the fact, though, why not
one in a team As a result, in my mind,
Garrett Wilson is more of a wide receiver two than
wide receiver one. On the fantasy side of things, what's
encouraging is that Rogers looks healthy. He's getting rid of
the ball quickly, making his progressions reads as if he's
back in his top tier form with the Green Bay Packers.
Garrett Wilson himself has provided us a solid baseline of
expected production from his rookie and sophomore seasons. Rookie was
eighty three eleven oh three and four good for the
PPR Wideout twenty one and sophomore ninety five, ten forty
two and three PPR Wide Receiver twenty six. So perhaps
the misconception here is that Garrett Wilson has not performed
better than a wide receiver two annually, Yet his wide
receiver one ADP is the assumption that is a market
in efficiency. It averages him out as more of a
fantasy wide receiver two, which I view as an accurate
assessment in value. In order to achieve a wide out
one outlook rest of season, Garrett Wilson needs more receptions,
He needs more yards, touchdowns, targets, basically any county stat
that you'd expect. He does not turn twenty five until July,
so assuming health cooperates foreign rodgers, it should be also
somes go and it should be improvements as the Jets
have to account for different defensive coverages, tougher matchups. If
he's your wide receiver one on a redrafting Donzee team,
you have to pump the brakes admit the ceiling does
not exist within the current infrastructure of the Jets offense.
There could be some contest where Wilson does in fact
return wide receiver and value, but the career arc does
not appear to be on that path in the immediate future.
Tank Dell, it's a two out of five for me.
There's some reason for panic, but not overblown. Week one
at Indianapolis three catches forty yards thirteen point three guards
per catch, seven targets, good for sixty three percent of snaps.
Speaker 2: Week two over.
Speaker 1: Chicago, it was a dud one catch, negative three yards
on four targets, sixty nine percent of snaps. Week three
at Minnesota, a slight emergence five sixty two twelve point
four yards per catch on six targets, sixty seven percent
of snap. So the snap rates are perhaps most alarming.
Sixty three sixty nine sixty seven has not hit or
exceeded the seventy percent pl tow He's even mixed in
some rushing output two for nineteen against Indianapolis, three percent
team ver Chicago over the span of a three game
sample size, though it seems as if Houston's wide out
pecking order is Nico Collins as the clear one, Stefon
Diggs as a close not two distant two, and then
Tank Dell. Tank Dell's wide receiver three for the Texans
in real life and accordingly in fantasy points scored. Therefore,
the presence of Stefon Diggs is undoubtedly limiting Tank ceiling
digs for his context and comparison's sake, his snap rates
to date checking at seventy seven percent eighty one eighty
five compared to once again Tank Dell sixty three, sixty
nine sixty seven. I'm not overly worried, since there should
be plenty of balls to go around when the Houston
offense starts to click under oc Bobby's slowic system. As
we saw in Dell's standout rookie campaign twenty twenty three
production of forty seven, seven h nine and seven touchdowns
for just over fifteen yards per catch on seventy five
targets tanks more of a bet on big playability and
efficiency instead of pure volume or overall counting stats. In
a sense, if you're familiar with Dell's game, this is
nothing new. Another factor contributing to Dell's still starts is
he gave Stroud's underwhelming passing accolades. To this point, Stroud's
pass attempts per week checking at thirty two, thirty six,
and thirty one, which is well below Houston's passing expectations
has been a weird stint or stretch here for Stroud's value.
Once Tank's touchdowns start to roll in the big plays,
which should come plenty, he should be back in the
wide receiver two map with wide receiver one Spike Weeks.
A safe value assessment is a weekly wide receiver three
or flex. But he's the kind of player we at
the start of each and every week. Otherwise we're going
to miss out, and when he does blow up against
an opposing defense could be weak winning upside twelve personnel
is Tank Dell's worst.
Speaker 2: Friend right now.
Speaker 1: It's mainly Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs and two receiver sets.
So unless that changes, the floor and ceiling are going
to suffer. But I'm not going to sell too low
on Tank Dell because he gets Stroud has been so
vocal about Tank Dell being one of his favorite, if
not perceived, most talented wideouts in the NFL itself, So
sure Nico Collins does appear to be wide receiver one,
Houston has the body, frame and overall skill set to
perform at a level like that. Stefon Diggs is the
possession security market four stroud, but tank Dell is the
lidlifter and after catch freak that could win us a
week in fantasy. So remain patient by low if you can.
It might even cost you at first right now because
of the slow start offer up two seconds or a
player in that value range and Tank Dell might be
obtainable at that cost.
Speaker 2: Up next on the player panic.
Speaker 1: Meter, it's DeAndre Swift a three out of five, So
we're approaching now three, four or five out of five.
I'm legit starting to become a little bit concerned about
both short and long term value.
Speaker 2: Swift.
Speaker 1: Week one ver Tennessee ten tots thirty yards three yards
per carry, one target on a seventy percent snap share.
Week two at Houston fourteen for eighteen on the ground
in Abysmo one point two nine yards per carry, four
catches twenty four yards on five targets sifty six percent
of snaps. And then Week three at the Colts thirteen
for twenty on the ground one point five four yards
per carry, two grabs twent two yards with four.
Speaker 2: Targets a fifty three snap share.
Speaker 1: For those keeping score at home, that's thirty seven rushes
sixty eight yards for one point eight yards per carry.
This is about as bad as it gets on the
ground for running back to begin Swift's Chicago career, after
the Bears dished out a three year, twenty four million
dour contract to him fifteen point three million, which is
guaranteed this past offseason. Now, most of Swift's poor play
can be credited back directly to a deplete offensive line,
leaving him literally nowhere to run or manufacture yards behind. Realistically,
it's a real situation and the fantasy environment that Swift
is in, so unless offensive line improvements are made, we
should expect to rely on more past the game than
rushing value from here on out, and that's unfortunate for
a player of Swift's magnitude or cost in the fantasy realm.
DeAndre himself has been a model of consistency since entering
the NFL in twenty twenty out of Georgia, with yearly
PPR finishes of RBA team RB fifteen, RB twenty one,
and RB twenty with Philadelphia last season. Those first three
years with Detroit, of course, that's the definition of a
perennial RB two. Swift has a long way to go
to recapture the rest of season RB two value in Chicago,
most of which is contingent upon in my mind, OC
Shane Waldron setting up the entire offense, namely Caleb Williams
for success. Williams finally had a huge passing game, but
it was based on over fifty pass attempts. The whole
offense is a mess right now. We're seeing it at
running back, not only for Swift but the presence of
Klelild Herbert and Roseewan Johnson as well doing nothing that's
effective or efficient on the ground, and we're on the
verge of seeing a three headed monster as an RBBC.
That's a nightmare situation for fans and purposes. Khalil Herbert's
snap shares per week are eleven percent, nine percent, ten percent,
Roashawan Johnson percentage wise zero zero thirty seven. So we
saw a turning of the wave where Rochewan had thirty
seven percent of snaps against the Colts. Perhaps to just
try to put some foot in the gas or new
fresh legs in the offense to generate something Swift is
the staple the RB one, but as a right now
you cannot expect it to come on the ground. It's
as a receiver, which is not even generating that much
value barely a Fox play. As a result, Swift is
a three out of five for me on the Player
of Panic meter. I think there is some bi Loo appeal.
It's more of a start, hold hope for the best
until we see wholesale improvements in Chicago. There's no point
in selling low in terms of the trade market to
Dynasty right now. In my opinion, DeAndre is a bet
on pedigree and his previous career norms being in RB
two each and every year. Remain patient, temper expectations. Time
for a quick break. I'll be back with two more
four to five, five out of five on the player
panic meter before I get to that. Patreon is the
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for that quick break will be right back with two
more players to discuss that might now warrant panic in
the fantasy football streets based on their Week one, two
and three production or role with the four to five
on the player panic meter, it is in fact or
shock White Week one versus Washington fifteen for thirty one
on the ground two point zh seven yards per carry,
six receptions, seventy five yards on six targets, seventy percent
of snaps. Week two at Detroit ten for eighteen one
point eight yards per carry, one catch, five yards on
one targets a seventy one percent snap share. And then
Week three vers Denver the wheels are coming off the
bus six or seventeen. On the ground, it's two point
eight three ars per carry, five grabs, eighteen yards six
targets for seventy four percent of snap So the snap
rates have actually increased for Shod White seventy seventy one,
seventy four, but the level of play is declining before
our eyes. That is thirty one totes sixty six yards
rushing two point one is per Carrey. We're talking about
DeAndre Swift, a clone of him in a sense, but
I think there's more confidence, at least slightly by a
hair in twist favor, based on how Consistany's been over
his career with Detroit and the Eagles res are shod White.
I think we all agree that the breakout twenty twenty
three season was due for some national regression. After he
had his standout numbers of two seventy two nine to
ninety and six in the ground that's three point six
four yards per carry and then sixty four five to
forty nine to three via seventy targets. He was a
PPR RB four last season, most of us could have
projected some sort of downfall or turn in value. That
being said, we've seen a complete three sixty turn events
for Rashad so far in twenty twenty four resseeding, rushing
volume and targets as a receiver to the fourth rown
rookie pick that is Bucky Irving for context, consider BUCkies
week to week stats to date of nine to sixty
two six point eight nine yards per carry, two catches
fourteen yards with three targets. Week two was seven for
twenty two three point one four yards per carry, no targets,
and then three nine rushes seventy yards almost eight yards
per clip, and then three for fourteen's receiver on three targets,
and the snap shares for those three games are nowhere
nearer shod Whites thirty one thirty five thirty two percent,
meaning it's been a seventy to thirty split for the
most part. Rashad White seeing more on field snaps and volume,
but Bucky Irving per touch is the far Shia Pier
running back, and from a pure film perspective, Bucky Irving
does look like the more explosive, elusive, and powerful talented
running back over Ashad White. Irving might be smaller five
ten one ninety five, but he plays larger then said
size with burst that Rashad White gets simply lacks. Sure
White brings more size of the table six feet two fourteen,
albeit with less efficiency as a rusher.
Speaker 2: It's not a new norm.
Speaker 1: We saw this last year when he averaged three point
six four US for Kerry on two hundred and seventy
two rushing attempts. The issue now for Rashad White is
he has a legitimate counterpart to compete with share touches
with in the Buccaneers backfield. The worst case scenario for
Shod White is if he loses the passing.
Speaker 2: Game usage as a staple of a skill set.
Speaker 1: Todd Bowles, head coach Buccaneers, has indicated that Bucky Irving
deserves more snaps from here on out, which makes sense.
If this turns into a sixty forty or fifty fifty
split favoring one running back over another, it could become
situation to avoid and fantasy. I don't think there's a
path forward to seventy thirty for either running back unless
Bucky Irving simply unseat for Shod White, which is not
out of the realm of possibilities. There's just enough talent
in White's set of tools to keep him relevant.
Speaker 2: And viable, but no longer.
Speaker 1: Seeing the RB one conversation, he was the ultimate cell
high end dynasty over the offseason, I think he's more
of the RB two, RB three boardline or flex and
if someone wants to buy into Reshod's workload from twenty
twenty three, then do so right now. Bucky Irving's stock
is ascending. He's cheaper than for Shod White. This is
only a three game sample size, but I am panicking
about for Shod White's outlook, Todd Bowles is taking actual
steps to give Bucky Irving more work and that's notable.
And then last, but not at least five out of
five sound the alarms. It's a mere White and this
is unfortunate. I've been touting White as a solid RB
two high end flex for most of the offseason, preaching
him as a hole supposed.
Speaker 2: To sell high.
Speaker 1: If you did sell high, hopefully you got a second
or a first late first at BA. But based on
what it costs to acquire him on paper, he seemed
like one of the safer bets for volume and positive
game script to work in his favor. That's why we
play the games or watch them rather and let the
pros do it. On paper means nothing in a match
up or player projections. We need to see what happens
on the grid iron Week one at the Chargers thirteen
for forty four on the ground, three point three US
per carry, two catches, two yards on two targets, thirty
eight percent snap share. Week two of Baltimore nine for
twenty four on the ground, two point six seven yards
per carry, three for fourteen four targets for sixty three
percent of snaps, and then Week three versus Carolina this is.
Speaker 2: Where it gets troublesome.
Speaker 1: Ten for thirty four, three point four yards per carry,
zero targets and a season low twenty two percent of
snaps fly freegent signing Alexander Madison for one year, two million,
one point six five million guaranteed has performed as a
better running back option for the Raiders to this point.
Madison has brought a bit more electricity to the position
as well as versatility with counting stats five for nineteen
three point ars per carry four forty three one It
takes target to meek one Week two four rushes one yard,
one touchdown, point two five hours per carry, so the
touchdown save the really bad day.
Speaker 2: No target to meek two.
Speaker 1: Week three three seven one touchdown, two point three three
ars per carry, three catches thirty seven yards on three targets,
with weekly snap rates of sixty percent, twenty seven percent
and forty four percent to be honest, both Samir White
and Alexander Madison have been downright awful as rushers.
Speaker 2: There's no efficiency whatsoever.
Speaker 1: The value difference between both of them to date has
been two rushing touchdowns, a favorite Madison, and also Alexander's
involvement as a receiver of the backfield. Samir White, the
one red flag in his profile was a lack of
pass game involvement, But what we saw down a stretch
with head coach Atonia Pierce relying on him was Josh
Jacob's volume roll. The praise of White being a fixture
in the Raiders' offensive plans for most of the offseason,
that has not been the reality. Pushed them to shove
or not seeing those results in fruition. Even though the
coaching staff told us based on free agent and draft decisions,
that Zamir White might have been the guy, it's just
not been the actual case. It's now a backfield to
avoid for fantasy purposes until for the notice, unless trends change.
It appears Amir's twenty thirty three peak in stock was
in fact an out liar, and he's becoming a definition
of a game flow or gamescript dependent RB two thirteen totes,
nine totes, ten totes isn't all that far off from expectations.
But the yards are not there, the snap rates are
not there, and the pass game involvement is actually favoring Madison,
and when it is most important, those high leverage Russian opportunities,
it's Madison that has the two touchdowns on the ground
through three weeks. So Zamir White is not someone that
you can sell right now in Dynasty. He's a firm
hold and hopes that things are turned around, but the
aspirations of him being the raider running back future, those
seem to be dwindling by the week. That's a five
out of five for me the panic meter, and unfortunately
he's shaping up as a sunk cost. You don't want
to sell for pennies and a dollar. You don't want
to be left holding the bag. So this is a
situation where if he does break out and have one
hundred yards all purpose around the ground a touchdown, that's
when possibly you can get out for a second two
thirds or a player that's also underachieving that will do it.
Speaker 2: Thank you all for listening. A quick recap of the.
Speaker 1: Week three player panic meter a one out of five
is Garrett Wilson. A two out of five is Tank Dell,
A three out of five is DeAndre Swift, four out
of five is Rashad White, and five out of five
is a Mere White. Once again, one I'm least concerned,
five I am most concerned.
Speaker 2: Hope you all enjoyed it.
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behind the scenes until next time.
Speaker 2: This is the dynast you're checking out.
Speaker 1: Hope you all have a great rest of the week
and good luck in your week four or macships see
you