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Speaker 1: And Hello, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast

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on this Friday. Today is the seventeenth day of July,

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year of our Lord, twenty twenty six. My name is

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Tom Sullivan and man alive. But we got a busy Friday,

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I mean, from the president's speak last night, to the

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latest updates on Iran, to some things about the economy.

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We'll get it all in, I know we will. So

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let's start with the elections from last night. The election speech.

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The speech by the president, I don't know it was.

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Somebody must have said, but you have to say something

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about the Iran war, and so I think did he

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mentioned affordability? I think he did. Anyway, he spent less

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than a minute on that. His purpose was he wanted

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to talk to the nation about the twenty twenty election.

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Which interesting about it was a lot of it to

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me was regurgitation of things I've heard in the past.

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There wasn't much new. It wasn't a very long speech.

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I think it was about twenty five less than thirty minutes,

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which is for him, considered to be rather short. But

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he never said during the speech that he lost the

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twenty twenty election or that he won the twenty twenty election,

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he didn't see he talked about the election system in

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this I I saw him do this in Georgia and

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in Georgia. This is back in twenty twenty, and he

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went or was it twenty Yeah, I was twenty twenty

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and he went to Georgia. And the way it works

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in Georgia is they have the election and then for

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the Senate they have a runoff. Wee, there were two

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Republican senators in Georgia, and the President went to Georgia

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and said, the system is rigged. You can't trust it.

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It's basically he talked people. He talked his supporters into

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not trusting the election system. And guess who did not

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show up? His supporters. So guess what we got out

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of that? We got two Instead of the two Republicans

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being re elected, we got two ran new Democrat senators

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and that flipped the Senate to where they had control.

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That's what I'm worried about with this. If you are

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a Donald Trump supporter, I'm sure that well, I'm not sure.

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There's a lot of Donald Trump supporters believe he won

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the election in twenty twenty. Others don't. It's and I'll

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get to that whole point in just a minute. But

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the fact that he spent almost a half an hour

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denigrating the election system that we have in this country.

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I would think the Democrats would be jumping for joy

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because it was the same message that he gave to

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his base in Georgia and they did not show up.

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They were discouraged about the voting system, so they said, Okay,

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why bother He described the election system that we have

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in this country as untrustworthy. That so's doubt for voters.

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So why why did he do this? I don't know.

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Susie Wiles and others tried to talk him out of it, saying,

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don't do it, it will you'll have a backlash on it.

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The other part about it, let me get let me

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get back to twenty twenty four minute. That was six

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years ago. We know that what difference does it make

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at this point whether he won or whether he lost.

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Let's say they come out and they have the smoking document.

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They did not. They had a lot of paperwork, but

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there's no smoking smoking gun in there. But let's say

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they did and they found out that Yep, he actually

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did he won the twenty twenty election. I don't believe

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he did, But I know some of you do. Oh,

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and I respect your opinion. I don't find it worthy

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of fighting with you want it. You have your view,

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I have mine. That's okay. But what if he did win?

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What are you going to do?

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Speaker 2: Now?

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Speaker 1: What would you doesn't change anything? He's president until twenty

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twenty eight. In many cases, he's kind of laughed about

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the fact that the fact that he had the four

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years in between the first term and the second term

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has actually worked out to his benefit. So I don't

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know what difference it would make, because what would you

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do if they said, Okay, he won, what do you do?

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I'm not quite sure what that election is all, what

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that argument is about about anymore. I could see why

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the argument was going in the first six months after

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the election, but after that it's like, all right, let's

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move on the other thing about it was the twenty

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twenty election. Who was in charge of the twenty twenty

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election while the states were, But as far as the

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federal government oversight, it was the Trump administration. He lost,

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in my opinion, So now we come to twenty twenty four.

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Who was in charge of the federal oversight of the election.

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That would be the Biden administration, but Donald Trump won.

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And when we come up to the midterms coming up

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here in November, who's in the federal government oversight of

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the elections? Who's in charge the Trump administration? So I

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saw this election official talking about the whole business of

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how many election districts there are out there, and the

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answer is that we have more than ten thousand independent

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election jurisdictions responsible for managing the vote. Counties, cities, townships.

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There's a bunch of them that are anyway the discrepancy.

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Are you going to have mistakes with ten thousand various

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independent election jurisdictions? Yes, do they try hard? I think

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they do. Do the Chinese try to interfere, of course,

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But can they go into ten thousand the various counties

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and then go from the county to various towns that

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had their own election districts? In New England, they decentralize

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it right down to every tiny town in township and

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they run their own elections and they have their own

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election clerks. So are the Chinese infiltrating all of those

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little towns? And the Russians, well, they try the big picture.

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They tried to They placed a lot of ads on

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social media to try to talk you in to seeing

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things from their point of view. They were being sneaky

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about it, and that's always happened. Then the other part

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about the fact that prather have talked about how many

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election places have been hacked. I don't know what you

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do about it. I actually have a little service I

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subscribe to that looks for my information that shows up

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in the dark web. I gotta tell you, there's a

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list pretty long. Every month they send me a list

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and say, we're going to clean these up. These are

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the places that your name, or your social Security number,

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or your address, or your whatever it might be, lots

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of information you are hacked. I am hacked. We don't

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even know it. Our information is being sold. It's just

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part of living in twenty twenty six, is yeah. So

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do they hack places. I'm sure they're trying. I'm sure

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they're pretty successful at They're pretty good at it. The

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thing that's going on today is Mark Wayne Mullen, which

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I like him. I know some of you don't, but

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I kind of like Mark Wayne Mullen. He's a tough,

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ombree but very successful businessman from Oklahoma. He's now the

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head of the DHS, and he gave a speech today.

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He's taking questions and answers, and he really is doing

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what the President wants him to do, and that is

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is to get all of the voter information from the

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fifty states. I have to tell you, I don't like it.

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I like the fact that cities and counties and states

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run the elections in this country. I know it can

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lead to maybe some mistakes, but again, I really think

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they give it the best effort and it seems to

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work pretty well. But the idea of the federal government

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getting first of all, if China wanted to hack or

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Russia wanted to hack our elections, if it was centralized

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in Washington, d C. It would be a lot easier

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for a hacker to get all that and to manipulate

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it and to make changes. But otherwise, I like the

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idea that my little tiny district that I live in

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doesn't know. They'd have to have one of their agents infiltrate.

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I've never shown up in an election and said, somebody's

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already voted for you. But they want to get all

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this centralized, and I don't like it. There's over thirty

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sub states that have said we're not sending you our

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voter data. Your voter data, by the way, there's a

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lot of it that China and Russia and you and I.

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You want to buy the voter voter polls, the voter

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registered voter polls. You can buy them from any place

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that has some a city, a county, whatever. They're for sale,

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and they have a lot of information about you. Your

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name for sure, your address for sure, and in many

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of them, your Social Security number. That's just what the

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hackers love to have, that kind of stuff. So all

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that's available out there. But I was looking down the

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list of some of this. Wisconsin has over eighteen hundred

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municipal election jurisdictions. Michigan you have more than fifteen one

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hundred of these sub county systems. That's I mean, you

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put all that together, that's why you get to ten

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thousand plus election jurisdictions in this country. But here's here's

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a little bit about Mark Wayne Bullen is he likes

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to talk tough, kind of a tough guy. This is

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what he said to a group of reporters today.

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Speaker 3: Thank you.

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Speaker 4: When we start talking about can we can we ensure

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that the midterm elections are going to be secure? Yes,

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We absolutely can build confidence in the American people, but

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the states have to do the part. I will tell

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you if the states that choose not to participate with

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the SAVE program, and they choose not to participate in

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secure in elections, we will make sure that we make

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those states a priority to look at who voted in

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their states and hold then the election officials accountable. If

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the election officials, once we gave them the information they

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need to secure their elections and they chose not to,

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then those individuals can also be held accountable by fines,

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by penalties, and even depending on how far it goes,

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prison time.

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Speaker 1: He's threatening election officials with prison if they don't turn

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over that data, you better send that stuff to it,

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And I'm thinking no, it's the other way around. The

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federal government should be offering you need any help from

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any of our experts, our cyber crime people, whatever it

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might be, but don't demand that they have to send

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you that. It should be the cities and counties and

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states should be saying to the federal government, you know,

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we would like little help with whatever it might be,

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but primarily cyber stuff. That's where the hacking stuff comes in.

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Ben Ginsburg, Oh my, gosh. Ben's been He's a big

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Republican lawyer. He's been around forever. He's represented the Republican Party.

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He represented Bush during the Bush Gored two thousand election debate.

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He's represented all kinds of Republicans for all kinds of

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things regarding their elections. He's an election expert. So here's

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Ben Ginsberg reacting to the president's speech last night.

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Speaker 3: Well, no, I think, given that the president has had

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all the powers of investigation for the last eighteen months,

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the FBI, the intelligence community, to not have any specifics

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and to have a session where the rhetoric is strong

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but the facts are we should give the American public

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confidence that our election results are accurate. In terms of vulnerabilities,

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we have a system that's very decentralized and with so

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many different voting places, it's not consistent. So we have

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a system that can be improved, and so to I

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don't think it's vulnerable, but it needs improvement. So it

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would be good if we want to get rid of

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whether he thinks their vulnerabilities or not, to actually do

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some studying of what those vulnerabilities are, and most importantly,

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to provide funding for the very underfunded elections, infrastructure, and community.

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Speaker 1: I'm with it. I like Ben, I think he's absolutely right.

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There's always ways to improve, whatever it might be. But

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at the same time, all of the federal governments offer

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to help cities, counties, and states with their election process

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have been cut. The budgets for all of them have

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been cut, they've been shrunk down. So you've got to

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be consistent, and in this particular area there is no consistency.

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But again this also it just smells. I haven't also

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that this happens just a few months before the midterm elections. Generally,

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the term elections go with the party that is not

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the president's. That's been history, very few exceptions to that.

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But and the president more than anything else. And this

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goes back to when we first really met him as

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a presidential candidate. The people that really know him and

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knew him well his whole life said that his father

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didn't physically beat it into him, but beat it into

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him psychologically that if you're not number one, you're a loser.

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If you come in number two, I don't care if

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it's out of a thousand people, you are a loser

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and you should be ashamed of yourself. So Donald Trump

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was browbeat, at the very least by his father into

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never losing, and that I'm sure is a great part

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of why he was a successful businessman. He is hell

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bent to always come in number one. So for him

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to handle twenty twenty loss psychologically is difficult. And I

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think he's afraid that they Republicans will be handed a

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loss in the midterms. Who knows. The Democrats look like

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fools right now. But and the Republicans if they just

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just don't make any big mistakes and let the Democrats

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just keep doing this socialist American the thing, Republicans will

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do just fine. So that the question is, was that

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a mistake last night for him to come out and

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try to diminish and so doubt into our election system

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to where people that would normally support a Republican will go,

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you know, I'm not going to even bother. You can't

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trust it anyway, Mildred, that kind of thing. So that's

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I don't know, We'll see what happens. States do a

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good job, I think in cities and counties. I want

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to talk about Iran. Everything's picking up steam. There's more

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shooting going on every single day. Let's start with General

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Jack Keeam.

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Speaker 2: Well, actually we're executing Project Freedom. Remember that was the

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plan to open the straits of a moves back on

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May to fourth. It was a plan at that time

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to be about two weeks in length. It was a

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very comprehensive plan, and we're executing it and we're not

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naming it, but that's the fact. And that plan is

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one to secure the straits, to clear the straits, and

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then also to protect shipping. And what you're seeing is

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one the focus to take down all the means for

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them to interfere with shipping, missiles, drones, fast boats, and

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then the things that help and enable it, command and

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control sensors, radars, and the logistical infrastructure support for it.

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And then we're also hitting their Iran's ability to retaliate

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against the Gulf State's US bases or Israel if they

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choose to do that as well, and that's ballistic missiles,

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launch systems, and also drone inventory and storage sites. Taking

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isolating the straits of the Moods was always part of

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the plan. So that's why you see bridges being destroyed,

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because we don't want them to come in and be

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able to reinforce logistically and begin to recover the capabilities

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that were taken away from them. So nothing different about this.

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We just never saw Project Freedom being execute fully. Remember

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it got stopped in the thirty six hour, something outrageous

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by Saudi Arabia, if you recall, who would not permit

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us to fly out of their airbase and not permit

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us to use their airspace and also put pressure on

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us to stop the operation. So this is this takes

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some time to unfold to truly get it right, and

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hopefully this time we'll be able to complete it and

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get it right. And then here's what we got to remember.

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For the Iran, the straitsmo Moves is a strategic asset.

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No matter what happens here, they will continue to want

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to take it back from us because it's number one.

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They don't have a nuclear power capability, they're not even

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close to developing a weapon.

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Speaker 3: Now.

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Speaker 2: This is their number one strategic asset. It gives them

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leverage over the Golf states in a region, and they

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truly want to have an element of control here and

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they are willing to fight us for it, and we

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have got to take it away from them and prevent

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them from ever getting it back under their control again.

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And let's finish this operation. To get that done.

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Speaker 1: Now, they're the real Jack team coming out there. He

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was trying to be politically nice about Well, the president

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has different ideas when he stopped the military campaign, and

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you just heard Jack Keenes say, let's let's complete this

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campaign and get it done. Do the finish the job

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is what he's preaching. Admiral stravenas the former Supreme NATO commander,

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former Navy admiral, he has a very intellectual look at war.

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Speaker 5: First, it is going to attempt to cut off, to

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kill the assets that could be used to close this

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straight and four moves. I've been to bond Robos before

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the revolution. Obviously it's a very important naval port for

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the Iranians and cutting it off has high military utilities.

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So point one, go after the places where the Iranians

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have weapons systems that help them close the straight.

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Speaker 2: Point two.

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Speaker 5: In general, going after infrastructure like bridges, roads puts economic

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pressure on Iran. I think that is part of the

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administration's strategy here to get Iran back to the table.

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In a phrase, what they're doing is escalate in order

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to de escalate, meaning go after economic targets, military targets,

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put pressure on more attacks with the hope that you

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can then de escalate and the Iranians will come back

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to the table.

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Speaker 1: Well, if you listen to me at all, you know

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that I'm not interested in getting back to the table

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because the people at the other side of the table

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are a bunch of crooks, liars, cheaters. You can't trust them.

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You're going to have to replace the regime if you're

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ever going to make Iran safe so that we are

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safe from their future efforts. Remember Nicki Hayley, I mean,

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there was a lot of Republicans that did not like

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Nicki Haley. I've always liked her. I don't know why,

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but she popped up today and I thought, well, we'll

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play what she thinks about the war with Iran.

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Speaker 6: Well, I think General Keen is exactly right. We want

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to make sure that whatever we do it is more permanent,

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that they don't come back and start to do this again.

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And I think, look, I mean President Trump realized that

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there was no MoU. I would you know, push it

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to say they never had any interest in following the MoU.

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They always knew they were going to violate it. The

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Ayatolas said that he was opposed to it on principle,

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so that wasn't going to happen. And you know, unfortunately,

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they were able to get a few billion dollars during

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those days that the sanctions were weighed to allow oil

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to go through. But now I think President Trump is

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doing exactly what he should do, is to get that

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blockade going. You know, they went to the heart of

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the naval base, the Revolutionary Guards naval base, which was important.

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They're going after their missile and drone stockpiles. That's going

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to be really important. And making sure that we that

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they don't have any other ways to get through. The

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key is to isolate them and make them the pariah

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that they are. We don't do that alone. We do

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it with the golf allies. We do it with the Europeans.

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We come together and we make sure they don't get

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one single dollar because that's how they do all of

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their terrorist activity is with funding. If we keep this

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blockade on for a few months, they will literally be

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at zero. They are already economically strained, they are already

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militarily strained. They basically have no government. This is about

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finish what you start so that they can never do

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this to anyone again.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I like Nikki Haley, she likes Jack Keine.

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She says, finish what you start. That's my whole point. Again.

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I'm not pro war, but if you're going to go

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to war, go full board, don't do it halfway. And

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I felt like we've been doing it halfway. We need

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to go in there and just finish off the regime

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and get the people of Iran their country back that

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they want. So that's a little bit of a ron

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a little bit about the speech and the elections the

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folks in ICE. There's the two latest incidents that have

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caused all kinds of questions about about ICE. One was

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in Maine, one was in Houston. Two individuals shot and

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killed while while in their vehicles. I saw a video

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of one of them last night. The guy was stopped

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by ICE in unmarked cars. They blocked him in, not

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that well, they really didn't block him in. They turned

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in front of him little bit and stopped their car,

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but he just went right around him, and sure enough,

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one of the ICE officers got out and started shooting

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at the vehicle as it was driving away. You just

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don't do that. Any police officer knows. You don't shoot

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at the vehicle that just drove away. You get the

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information and you can chase them. You can get the

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information and go arrest them tomorrow morning. There's all kinds

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of things do, but you don't shoot at vehicles as

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they're driving away. It shows that they don't have basic

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police training. They really don't. And I think part of

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it is remember they had a search where they needed

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to hire lots of more agents and I think with

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that they got people that are rambos or something. I'm

387
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not quite sure what they are. But about the body

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Warren cameras that police do use them, yesterday there was

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a lot of hubbub about Ice isn't wearing them. Caroline

390
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Levitt had an update for us at the White House

391
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press conference today.

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Speaker 7: Over half of all ICE field offices now do have

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body cameras, and the remainder of the field offices are

394
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expected within sixty days. It's been a slower rollout than

395
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we would have hoped, but that's because of the Democrat's

396
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decision to shut down DHS for several weeks. So we

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expect to fully execute on the promise of body cams

398
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to all field offices across the country.

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Speaker 1: Very stands ahh, so that shut down of DHS. There's

400
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one of the reasons they could not go out and

401
00:27:20,599 --> 00:27:25,839
buy the body camera's. Former DHS secretary Chad wolf nodded

402
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on that one.

403
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Speaker 8: Well, it's very dangerous. Obviously, these folks are lunatics, and

404
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that individual probably has not left his mother's basement in

405
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quite some time. He doesn't understand law enforcement, he doesn't

406
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understand the mission, and he doesn't understand the statutory mission

407
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that ICE has been given by the United States Congress.

408
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They have to do that job and remove dangerous folks

409
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from the country. You can disagree on policy, you can

410
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disagree about targets and who they should remove, but what

411
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everyone should agree on is that those that don't have

412
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a legal right to be in the United States should

413
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be removed. Every other country around the world does this right.

414
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You don't have a country without borders and without enforcing

415
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that border security and immigration.

416
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Speaker 1: Yeah, that seems kind of basic to me. But they

417
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need good trained officers so that people will respect ICE

418
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instead of trashing them like they have been lately. As

419
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far as the economy goes looks pretty good. Retail sales

420
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numbers came out yesterday June retail sales were up two

421
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tenths of one percent, and the only reason they were

422
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up was because of gas prices being where they are.

423
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Otherwise you take out automobile sales, which were way up,

424
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and you wind up with minus two tenths of one percent,

425
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So retail sales and kind of flattened out in the

426
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month of June. Natasha Sarah, she is an economist and

427
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a law professor over at Yale.

428
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Speaker 9: She had this observation, I think where we are this

429
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week is we got an inflation read that was lower

430
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than expectations but still pretty high. We're in the mid threes.

431
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We have consumer retail sales holding up pretty well. We

432
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have jobless claims indicating what the job's numbers have been

433
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indicating for the last few months, which is the labor

434
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:21,240
market is doing pretty well. And so I think where

435
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we're looking at a picture that is starting to form

436
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of an economy where inflation is really a core issue.

437
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And remember, all of these are backward looking indicators except

438
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for what it was saying towards the end on business indicators,

439
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and that means that we're not actually capturing a bunch

440
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of what is happening with respect to the conflict in Iran,

441
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where I suspect upward pressure on oil prices and gas

442
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price is going to continue in the next few weeks.

443
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Speaker 1: Yeah, so that's the war heats up, Watch prices heat up,

444
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inflation will heat up. And she's basically going, yeah, what

445
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we think the FED is going to be raising interest

446
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rates later this year, not towing them. Joe Lovarno is

447
00:30:02,599 --> 00:30:06,799
an economist. I believe he thinks that they're going to

448
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raise rates at the FED as well. Yeh.

449
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Speaker 10: I mean, the economy is booming, but there is certainly

450
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inflation pressure. Today's this week's data was obviously excellent, as

451
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Natasha mentioned. However, given the fact we're going to have

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double digit if in the mid to high teens for

453
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CAPEX and GDP, the retail sales are strong, The labor

454
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market shows no signs of weakening now it's actually appears

455
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to be firming. Claims are super low. You've got monetary

456
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policy that's very easy, and inflation will not go back

457
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to target without some help from the Fed. Last year

458
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I got seventy five bases points and easing from the

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Fed because there was concern about the labor market. Those

460
00:30:46,799 --> 00:30:50,400
concerns now are misplaced and the inflation outlook is more uncertain.

461
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,279
It's more fraught now than it was six seven months

462
00:30:53,279 --> 00:30:56,200
ago when the FED was easing or contemplating further easing. So, yes,

463
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the economy is good, but it's going to need some

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help from the FED to kind of slow things.

465
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Speaker 1: Yeah, So those are two economists that agree with each other.

466
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The economy is doing fine, it's moving along a little

467
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bit faster. It's above the inflation target that the FED

468
00:31:10,519 --> 00:31:14,079
once and so expect them to raise interest rates as

469
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we go through the rest of twenty twenty six. I

470
00:31:19,359 --> 00:31:22,039
think that's just about You can bet the farm on

471
00:31:22,079 --> 00:31:24,720
that one Wall Street today. Let's see what it did.

472
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:28,000
Should probably set this up with what we got yes

473
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Also yesterday IBM, Big Blue, they came out with terrible,

474
00:31:35,119 --> 00:31:39,680
terrible earnings for the quarter. There's Talck fell twenty five

475
00:31:39,799 --> 00:31:44,039
percent yesterday, twenty five percent, and a lot of people

476
00:31:44,079 --> 00:31:46,440
are looking at Big Blue and going, that's the canary

477
00:31:46,519 --> 00:31:48,440
in the coal mine. What about all the other tech

478
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:52,839
sectors out there? Well, more selling of chips again today,

479
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:58,079
Dow Jones industrials went along for the ride, down four

480
00:31:58,359 --> 00:32:02,240
hundred and six. The Dow at fifty two thousand and one,

481
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:08,319
forty six, the SMP down seventy six, NASDAK down three

482
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:11,720
hundred and sixty one. The price of gold it went

483
00:32:11,799 --> 00:32:16,200
up twenty three dollars to four thy fourteen. And oh man,

484
00:32:16,279 --> 00:32:20,039
look at oil, it just keeps climbing another three and

485
00:32:20,039 --> 00:32:24,599
a half dollars today West Texas Intermediate now more than

486
00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:29,440
eighty two dollars for one barrel of oil. So that's

487
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,319
it for today. Thank you for coming by. We will

488
00:32:32,359 --> 00:32:35,960
be back on Monday. In the meantime, have a wonderful weekend.

489
00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:45,400
It we'll see on Monday.

