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<v Speaker 1>The first round of polling is out in the California

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<v Speaker 1>governor's race as Steve Hilton and Xavier Bisera advanced to

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<v Speaker 1>the November runoff.

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<v Speaker 2>Hilton is behind, but.

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<v Speaker 1>There are little few green sprouts of hope in the

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<v Speaker 1>data coming up. I'll share the data with you and

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<v Speaker 1>tell you what we need to do to fight to

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<v Speaker 1>try to win the governor's race in California in twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six.

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<v Speaker 2>And Bisera.

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<v Speaker 1>Is deeply underwater with his image with independence, a negative

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<v Speaker 1>twenty three percent favorability with independence. Now, what are some

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<v Speaker 1>of the things that we can do. I'm Carl Demio,

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<v Speaker 1>chairman of Reform California and a California state representative, and

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<v Speaker 1>the first polling is in for the November twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>six mid term election the governor's race, and no surprise,

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<v Speaker 1>Xavier Pisa has a double digit lead over Steve Hilton.

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<v Speaker 2>Remember we're in a blue state, Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>Democrat party registration overwhelmingly higher than Republicans typically. Republicans in

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<v Speaker 1>statewide races are performing at about thirty seven thirty eight

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<v Speaker 1>percent thirty eight point five percent of the vote, Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>receiving about sixty one percent sixty two percent of the vote.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the natural dynamics in a governor's race.

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<v Speaker 2>Those numbers should.

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<v Speaker 1>Tighten up because executive races tend to be a little

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<v Speaker 1>less partisan. So I could see us getting into a

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<v Speaker 1>sixty forty a fifty nine forty one if nothing changes

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<v Speaker 1>in the landscape, if you just take a snapshot, and

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<v Speaker 1>the polling that I'm about to share with you kind

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<v Speaker 1>of reflects that right now, if not a little bit better.

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<v Speaker 2>For Steve Hilton.

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<v Speaker 1>Before we get into the polling, one of the things

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<v Speaker 1>that you're going to hear me talk about to change

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<v Speaker 1>these numbers, to move the numbers and try to win

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<v Speaker 1>these seats and overcome our voter registration disadvantage in California

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<v Speaker 1>is we all got to get off the couch, get

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<v Speaker 1>off the sidelines, get into the streets, and get into

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<v Speaker 1>the fight. That's why I want you to go to

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<v Speaker 1>the website Reform California dot org. That is ground zero

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<v Speaker 1>in our campaign to take it back our state from insanity.

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<v Speaker 1>We have a comprehensive campaign plan to not only support

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<v Speaker 1>Steve Hilton and our other statewide candidates, but try to

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<v Speaker 1>break the supermajority in the Sacramento in the target seats.

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<v Speaker 1>All we need to do is pick up seven seats

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<v Speaker 1>to break the Democrat supermajority in the state legislature. And

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<v Speaker 1>by the way, that would be a game changer. We

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<v Speaker 1>would once again have leverage in Sacramento and be able

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<v Speaker 1>to restore.

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<v Speaker 2>A little bit of balance.

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<v Speaker 1>Plus, we have a bunch of ballot measure fights. We

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<v Speaker 1>are trying to stop a bunch of tax increases at

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<v Speaker 1>the state and local level, number of ballot measures that

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<v Speaker 1>will raise your taxes. But also we have yes on

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<v Speaker 1>Prop thirty nine, the voter ID initiative. We need everyone

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<v Speaker 1>helped to pass that so we can get fair elections

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<v Speaker 1>again in our state. So go to the website Reform

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<v Speaker 1>California dot org, chip in a contribution, sign up as

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<v Speaker 1>a volunteer, or at least sign up to know when

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<v Speaker 1>we're coming to your area with our lawn signs, our doorhangers,

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<v Speaker 1>and our rallies. All right, let's talk about the polling.

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<v Speaker 1>It comes in the form of Steve Hilton willingly releasing

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<v Speaker 1>his internal polling as part of his campaign. Here's Steve

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<v Speaker 1>Hilton's polling information. He says that he has reason for optimism.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm going to start out first with the numbers in

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<v Speaker 1>a head to head matchup, but Sarah is leading Hilton

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<v Speaker 1>fifty five thirty nine percent. That's again about where I

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<v Speaker 1>thought we would start out in a natural status quo election.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a PPIIC poll that's out in the LA Times

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<v Speaker 1>today that shows it's more like thirty six percent for

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<v Speaker 1>Hilton and nearly sixty percent for Biserra. That's within the

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<v Speaker 1>margin of error. So what I told you at the

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<v Speaker 1>very outset is natural starting point is about thirty eight

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<v Speaker 1>thirty nine forty percent for a Republican and around sixty

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<v Speaker 1>percent sixty one percent for the Democrat. But the sprouts

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<v Speaker 1>of green I'm seeing.

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<v Speaker 2>In this poll are as follows. Number one.

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<v Speaker 1>Fifty two percent of California voters say that California is

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<v Speaker 1>on the wrong track. That means they're interested in change.

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<v Speaker 1>If they see Xavier Biserra as representing status quo more

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<v Speaker 1>the more the same, they're gonna be like, well, why

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<v Speaker 1>would I want more the same? I think we're on

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<v Speaker 1>the wrong track. We don't need him as the conductor,

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<v Speaker 1>we need someone else. Only thirty four percent think that

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<v Speaker 1>we're in the right direction. That's bad news for Pissera

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<v Speaker 1>sixty six percent of Californian say they want major changes

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<v Speaker 1>or a complete overhaul. Now, their support is pretty soft.

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<v Speaker 1>When you ask are you definitely voting for Besara, he

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<v Speaker 1>only gets forty one percent of that vote of definite.

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<v Speaker 1>Twenty six percent of voters are up for grabs. They're

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<v Speaker 1>looking for change, So forty one percent locked in for Besara,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six percent opened to the possibility of change. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they're going to swallow a Republican like Hilton, that

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<v Speaker 1>is the big question. It's a tough hill to climb.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not going to be pollyannish about this. I'm not

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<v Speaker 1>going to sugarcoat it. It is going to be all

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<v Speaker 1>a very tough fight to win the governor's race. I

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<v Speaker 1>would give it about a one out of ten shot.

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<v Speaker 2>One out of ten.

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<v Speaker 1>That's not great, but it's a shot, and we can

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<v Speaker 1>make it more like one out of five, one out.

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<v Speaker 2>Of four, one out of three.

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<v Speaker 1>I absolutely believe we can do that and recognize the

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<v Speaker 1>tighter we make this governor's race. Even if we fall short,

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<v Speaker 1>chances are we pull people like Michael Gates across the

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<v Speaker 1>finish line for the attorney general slot, or maybe Herb

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<v Speaker 1>Morgan for the controller position or Sonya Shaw to be

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<v Speaker 1>in charge of our schools. The better we do in

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<v Speaker 1>the governor's race, the better we are across the board

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<v Speaker 1>and with our down ticket, so we have to fight.

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<v Speaker 1>We tighten up the numbers, It creates more balance in

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<v Speaker 1>our state. We get Steve Hilton to even forty five percent,

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<v Speaker 1>forty six percent, then it becomes within reach to actually

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<v Speaker 1>win the next time around. Nothing happens overnight, but again

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<v Speaker 1>I do believe that there's still a chance. And this

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<v Speaker 1>is why this data indicates those green sprouts are there

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<v Speaker 1>and they are very real. Amongst independents, Hilton leads forty

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<v Speaker 1>five to forty one percent, and the Serah is deeply

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<v Speaker 1>underwater with his image with independence a negative twenty three

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<v Speaker 1>percent favorability with independence. Now, what are some of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that we can do? Number One, make the case

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<v Speaker 1>that Bisera is more of the same, no change, and

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<v Speaker 1>Hilton has I think, in the next couple weeks a

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<v Speaker 1>pretty good launch strategy.

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<v Speaker 2>I won't steal his thunder, but it's pretty good.

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<v Speaker 1>Second, we need to turn out our vote. Midterm elections

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<v Speaker 1>have lower turnout than presidential elections. In the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four presidential election, six point one million Republicans or sorry,

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<v Speaker 1>six point one million voters in California voted for Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Some of those were independent, some of them were Latino Democrats.

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<v Speaker 1>Six point one million votes for Trump if all those

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<v Speaker 1>voters show up in the midterm, because turnout goes from

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<v Speaker 1>eighty percent in a presidential down to thirty five percent

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<v Speaker 1>in a midterm. But if all six point one million

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<v Speaker 1>of the Trump voters in California showed up showed up

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<v Speaker 1>in this midterm, Hilton would win by two hundred thousand votes.

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<v Speaker 1>So the first part is persuasion of people that are

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<v Speaker 1>definitely going to vote in the midterm.

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<v Speaker 2>The second part.

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<v Speaker 1>Is you might not have to persuade anyone if you

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<v Speaker 1>could just get everyone who already voted for Trump in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty four to vote. So turnout not persuasion, but

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<v Speaker 1>turnout is everything. That's why it's part of Reform California's strategy.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to be focusing on turning out low propensity

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<v Speaker 1>or unlikely, unreliable Republican voters. To do that, we needs

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<v Speaker 1>you to volunteer to go knock on their door. I

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<v Speaker 1>will send you a list of low propensity Republicans who

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<v Speaker 1>are likely not going to vote. I'll give you the

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<v Speaker 1>list of the people in your neighborhood, and I.

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<v Speaker 2>Want you to just go talk to them.

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<v Speaker 1>Republicans, Republican low propensities. I'm not sending you to Democrat

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<v Speaker 1>households or independents. I'm asking you go to Republicans who

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<v Speaker 1>already agree with you, who won't get into argument with you,

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<v Speaker 1>but will actually thank you for reminding them to vote. Plus,

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<v Speaker 1>I need you to give them the Doorhanger. Here's a

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<v Speaker 1>copy of our Doorhanger miniature version, but it will have

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<v Speaker 1>the cheat sheet, the plain English voter guide on all

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<v Speaker 1>the ballot propositions and all of our candidates. By making

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<v Speaker 1>voting easy, we encourage voters to turn out, make it

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<v Speaker 1>easy for them, inspire them they turn out. Turnout is everything,

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<v Speaker 1>and one of the things we're going to use to

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<v Speaker 1>turn them out telling them how many tax increases are

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<v Speaker 1>on the ballot, no one likes to pay more money,

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<v Speaker 1>and encouraging them to change our direction by voting yes

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<v Speaker 1>on Prop thirty nine for voter ID. Look, we've got

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<v Speaker 1>a plan, and now we have a poll showing there

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<v Speaker 1>are sprouts of green. I'm not sugarcoating it.

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<v Speaker 2>It's going to be.

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<v Speaker 1>A Hail Mary pass, but by getting behind Steve Hilton

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<v Speaker 1>running a statewide campaign, a real statewide campaign for Republicans,

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<v Speaker 1>which is we haven't really done that since twenty twenty ten. Really,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the last time we had a real funded statewide

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<v Speaker 1>campaign for governor. And I do believe in twenty twenty six,

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<v Speaker 1>sixteen years later, we actually will have an opportunity to

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<v Speaker 1>run a real state wide campaign.

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<v Speaker 2>And who knows. You gotta try, but it requires you, So.

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<v Speaker 1>Go to the website Reform California dot org, sign up

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<v Speaker 1>as a volunteer, ship and a contribution.

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<v Speaker 2>And join the fight until next time.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Carlomio, chairman of Reform California and a California state representative.

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for watching and I hope you enjoyed this episode.

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<v Speaker 1>But before you click away, please subscribe to this channel

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<v Speaker 1>and click that notification button so you get updated when

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<v Speaker 1>we post new episodes. Plus, like this video and share

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<v Speaker 1>it with your friends so that we can help spread

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<v Speaker 1>our message across the state.