Speaker 1: The first round of polling is out in the California
Speaker 1: governor's race as Steve Hilton and Xavier Bisera advanced to
Speaker 1: the November runoff.
Speaker 2: Hilton is behind, but.
Speaker 1: There are little few green sprouts of hope in the
Speaker 1: data coming up. I'll share the data with you and
Speaker 1: tell you what we need to do to fight to
Speaker 1: try to win the governor's race in California in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six.
Speaker 2: And Bisera.
Speaker 1: Is deeply underwater with his image with independence, a negative
Speaker 1: twenty three percent favorability with independence. Now, what are some
Speaker 1: of the things that we can do. I'm Carl Demio,
Speaker 1: chairman of Reform California and a California state representative, and
Speaker 1: the first polling is in for the November twenty twenty
Speaker 1: six mid term election the governor's race, and no surprise,
Speaker 1: Xavier Pisa has a double digit lead over Steve Hilton.
Speaker 2: Remember we're in a blue state, Okay.
Speaker 1: Democrat party registration overwhelmingly higher than Republicans typically. Republicans in
Speaker 1: statewide races are performing at about thirty seven thirty eight
Speaker 1: percent thirty eight point five percent of the vote, Democrats
Speaker 1: receiving about sixty one percent sixty two percent of the vote.
Speaker 1: That's the natural dynamics in a governor's race.
Speaker 2: Those numbers should.
Speaker 1: Tighten up because executive races tend to be a little
Speaker 1: less partisan. So I could see us getting into a
Speaker 1: sixty forty a fifty nine forty one if nothing changes
Speaker 1: in the landscape, if you just take a snapshot, and
Speaker 1: the polling that I'm about to share with you kind
Speaker 1: of reflects that right now, if not a little bit better.
Speaker 2: For Steve Hilton.
Speaker 1: Before we get into the polling, one of the things
Speaker 1: that you're going to hear me talk about to change
Speaker 1: these numbers, to move the numbers and try to win
Speaker 1: these seats and overcome our voter registration disadvantage in California
Speaker 1: is we all got to get off the couch, get
Speaker 1: off the sidelines, get into the streets, and get into
Speaker 1: the fight. That's why I want you to go to
Speaker 1: the website Reform California dot org. That is ground zero
Speaker 1: in our campaign to take it back our state from insanity.
Speaker 1: We have a comprehensive campaign plan to not only support
Speaker 1: Steve Hilton and our other statewide candidates, but try to
Speaker 1: break the supermajority in the Sacramento in the target seats.
Speaker 1: All we need to do is pick up seven seats
Speaker 1: to break the Democrat supermajority in the state legislature. And
Speaker 1: by the way, that would be a game changer. We
Speaker 1: would once again have leverage in Sacramento and be able
Speaker 1: to restore.
Speaker 2: A little bit of balance.
Speaker 1: Plus, we have a bunch of ballot measure fights. We
Speaker 1: are trying to stop a bunch of tax increases at
Speaker 1: the state and local level, number of ballot measures that
Speaker 1: will raise your taxes. But also we have yes on
Speaker 1: Prop thirty nine, the voter ID initiative. We need everyone
Speaker 1: helped to pass that so we can get fair elections
Speaker 1: again in our state. So go to the website Reform
Speaker 1: California dot org, chip in a contribution, sign up as
Speaker 1: a volunteer, or at least sign up to know when
Speaker 1: we're coming to your area with our lawn signs, our doorhangers,
Speaker 1: and our rallies. All right, let's talk about the polling.
Speaker 1: It comes in the form of Steve Hilton willingly releasing
Speaker 1: his internal polling as part of his campaign. Here's Steve
Speaker 1: Hilton's polling information. He says that he has reason for optimism.
Speaker 1: I'm going to start out first with the numbers in
Speaker 1: a head to head matchup, but Sarah is leading Hilton
Speaker 1: fifty five thirty nine percent. That's again about where I
Speaker 1: thought we would start out in a natural status quo election.
Speaker 1: There's a PPIIC poll that's out in the LA Times
Speaker 1: today that shows it's more like thirty six percent for
Speaker 1: Hilton and nearly sixty percent for Biserra. That's within the
Speaker 1: margin of error. So what I told you at the
Speaker 1: very outset is natural starting point is about thirty eight
Speaker 1: thirty nine forty percent for a Republican and around sixty
Speaker 1: percent sixty one percent for the Democrat. But the sprouts
Speaker 1: of green I'm seeing.
Speaker 2: In this poll are as follows. Number one.
Speaker 1: Fifty two percent of California voters say that California is
Speaker 1: on the wrong track. That means they're interested in change.
Speaker 1: If they see Xavier Biserra as representing status quo more
Speaker 1: the more the same, they're gonna be like, well, why
Speaker 1: would I want more the same? I think we're on
Speaker 1: the wrong track. We don't need him as the conductor,
Speaker 1: we need someone else. Only thirty four percent think that
Speaker 1: we're in the right direction. That's bad news for Pissera
Speaker 1: sixty six percent of Californian say they want major changes
Speaker 1: or a complete overhaul. Now, their support is pretty soft.
Speaker 1: When you ask are you definitely voting for Besara, he
Speaker 1: only gets forty one percent of that vote of definite.
Speaker 1: Twenty six percent of voters are up for grabs. They're
Speaker 1: looking for change, So forty one percent locked in for Besara,
Speaker 1: twenty six percent opened to the possibility of change. Now,
Speaker 1: whether they're going to swallow a Republican like Hilton, that
Speaker 1: is the big question. It's a tough hill to climb.
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be pollyannish about this. I'm not
Speaker 1: going to sugarcoat it. It is going to be all
Speaker 1: a very tough fight to win the governor's race. I
Speaker 1: would give it about a one out of ten shot.
Speaker 2: One out of ten.
Speaker 1: That's not great, but it's a shot, and we can
Speaker 1: make it more like one out of five, one out.
Speaker 2: Of four, one out of three.
Speaker 1: I absolutely believe we can do that and recognize the
Speaker 1: tighter we make this governor's race. Even if we fall short,
Speaker 1: chances are we pull people like Michael Gates across the
Speaker 1: finish line for the attorney general slot, or maybe Herb
Speaker 1: Morgan for the controller position or Sonya Shaw to be
Speaker 1: in charge of our schools. The better we do in
Speaker 1: the governor's race, the better we are across the board
Speaker 1: and with our down ticket, so we have to fight.
Speaker 1: We tighten up the numbers, It creates more balance in
Speaker 1: our state. We get Steve Hilton to even forty five percent,
Speaker 1: forty six percent, then it becomes within reach to actually
Speaker 1: win the next time around. Nothing happens overnight, but again
Speaker 1: I do believe that there's still a chance. And this
Speaker 1: is why this data indicates those green sprouts are there
Speaker 1: and they are very real. Amongst independents, Hilton leads forty
Speaker 1: five to forty one percent, and the Serah is deeply
Speaker 1: underwater with his image with independence a negative twenty three
Speaker 1: percent favorability with independence. Now, what are some of the
Speaker 1: things that we can do? Number One, make the case
Speaker 1: that Bisera is more of the same, no change, and
Speaker 1: Hilton has I think, in the next couple weeks a
Speaker 1: pretty good launch strategy.
Speaker 2: I won't steal his thunder, but it's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Second, we need to turn out our vote. Midterm elections
Speaker 1: have lower turnout than presidential elections. In the twenty twenty
Speaker 1: four presidential election, six point one million Republicans or sorry,
Speaker 1: six point one million voters in California voted for Trump.
Speaker 1: Some of those were independent, some of them were Latino Democrats.
Speaker 1: Six point one million votes for Trump if all those
Speaker 1: voters show up in the midterm, because turnout goes from
Speaker 1: eighty percent in a presidential down to thirty five percent
Speaker 1: in a midterm. But if all six point one million
Speaker 1: of the Trump voters in California showed up showed up
Speaker 1: in this midterm, Hilton would win by two hundred thousand votes.
Speaker 1: So the first part is persuasion of people that are
Speaker 1: definitely going to vote in the midterm.
Speaker 2: The second part.
Speaker 1: Is you might not have to persuade anyone if you
Speaker 1: could just get everyone who already voted for Trump in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four to vote. So turnout not persuasion, but
Speaker 1: turnout is everything. That's why it's part of Reform California's strategy.
Speaker 1: We're going to be focusing on turning out low propensity
Speaker 1: or unlikely, unreliable Republican voters. To do that, we needs
Speaker 1: you to volunteer to go knock on their door. I
Speaker 1: will send you a list of low propensity Republicans who
Speaker 1: are likely not going to vote. I'll give you the
Speaker 1: list of the people in your neighborhood, and I.
Speaker 2: Want you to just go talk to them.
Speaker 1: Republicans, Republican low propensities. I'm not sending you to Democrat
Speaker 1: households or independents. I'm asking you go to Republicans who
Speaker 1: already agree with you, who won't get into argument with you,
Speaker 1: but will actually thank you for reminding them to vote. Plus,
Speaker 1: I need you to give them the Doorhanger. Here's a
Speaker 1: copy of our Doorhanger miniature version, but it will have
Speaker 1: the cheat sheet, the plain English voter guide on all
Speaker 1: the ballot propositions and all of our candidates. By making
Speaker 1: voting easy, we encourage voters to turn out, make it
Speaker 1: easy for them, inspire them they turn out. Turnout is everything,
Speaker 1: and one of the things we're going to use to
Speaker 1: turn them out telling them how many tax increases are
Speaker 1: on the ballot, no one likes to pay more money,
Speaker 1: and encouraging them to change our direction by voting yes
Speaker 1: on Prop thirty nine for voter ID. Look, we've got
Speaker 1: a plan, and now we have a poll showing there
Speaker 1: are sprouts of green. I'm not sugarcoating it.
Speaker 2: It's going to be.
Speaker 1: A Hail Mary pass, but by getting behind Steve Hilton
Speaker 1: running a statewide campaign, a real statewide campaign for Republicans,
Speaker 1: which is we haven't really done that since twenty twenty ten. Really,
Speaker 1: that's the last time we had a real funded statewide
Speaker 1: campaign for governor. And I do believe in twenty twenty six,
Speaker 1: sixteen years later, we actually will have an opportunity to
Speaker 1: run a real state wide campaign.
Speaker 2: And who knows. You gotta try, but it requires you, So.
Speaker 1: Go to the website Reform California dot org, sign up
Speaker 1: as a volunteer, ship and a contribution.
Speaker 2: And join the fight until next time.
Speaker 1: I'm Carlomio, chairman of Reform California and a California state representative.
Speaker 1: Thanks for watching and I hope you enjoyed this episode.
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