WEBVTT 1 00:00:01.080 --> 00:00:04.040 Hey, everybody, Welcome to another episode of Ayes on Jill Politics. 2 00:00:04.040 --> 00:00:07.120 I'm here with Mick Moulroy and Jonathan Hackett. A lot 3 00:00:07.200 --> 00:00:11.199 happening as usual. The Knicks hopefully will win the championship tonight. 4 00:00:11.800 --> 00:00:15.080 As we're recording this, fingers crossed USA b Paraguay four 5 00:00:15.119 --> 00:00:16.800 to one. And that's the end of the sports update 6 00:00:16.879 --> 00:00:18.440 for this program. 7 00:00:18.480 --> 00:00:21.079 Back to like what we normally talk about UFC. 8 00:00:21.760 --> 00:00:26.000 Oh, yeah, UFC. It's on Sunday. Huh, that's weird. It's 9 00:00:26.039 --> 00:00:28.199 never usually Sunday. It's usually Saturdays. 10 00:00:28.199 --> 00:00:28.960 Trump's birthday. 11 00:00:29.480 --> 00:00:33.719 Oh, happy birthday. All the better, many more, many more. 12 00:00:35.799 --> 00:00:41.159 So Iran obviously, we've seen it going back and forth 13 00:00:41.200 --> 00:00:44.920 again like we've seen the last like almost month. Uh, 14 00:00:45.840 --> 00:00:47.560 there was I don't know if we spoke about the 15 00:00:47.560 --> 00:00:49.880 Apache getting shot down and then we hit some spot 16 00:00:50.000 --> 00:00:53.560 like areas in south and southwest of Iran and stuff 17 00:00:53.600 --> 00:00:57.159 like that too. Israel hit Iran as well after after 18 00:00:57.280 --> 00:01:01.520 Iran hit Israel or shot ballistic missiles at them. So 19 00:01:01.520 --> 00:01:03.640 there's been some back and forth stuff straight. Oh, Horn 20 00:01:03.719 --> 00:01:07.040 Moves is essentially closed, but there are some boats coming through, 21 00:01:07.640 --> 00:01:12.239 not anywhere near where it used to be yesterday. I 22 00:01:12.280 --> 00:01:15.519 believe it was Iran leaked the deal points. Then the 23 00:01:15.560 --> 00:01:19.239 deal points look like maybe one of the worst deals 24 00:01:19.239 --> 00:01:22.359 you've ever seen in terms of like what the US's 25 00:01:22.400 --> 00:01:25.599 interests are compared to what Iranian interests are, Like Iran's 26 00:01:25.599 --> 00:01:28.239 gonna have like a freaking windfall of cash if this 27 00:01:28.319 --> 00:01:32.840 deal is done, President Trump true social right after that deal, 28 00:01:32.959 --> 00:01:36.239 those deal points leaked that this is not true, and 29 00:01:36.280 --> 00:01:41.640 then cut to maybe eight hours later, the Pakistani I 30 00:01:41.680 --> 00:01:44.840 believe foreign minister but I could be wrong, said that 31 00:01:44.920 --> 00:01:47.079 like we're a day out for it being signed, and 32 00:01:47.079 --> 00:01:49.760 it's gonna happen. Initially was gonna happen in Switzerland, but 33 00:01:49.799 --> 00:01:52.439 now they said that's not gonna happen. It's gonna happen 34 00:01:52.519 --> 00:01:55.159 remotely whatever that there's a deal eminent in the next 35 00:01:55.200 --> 00:01:57.840 twenty four hours. That's where we're at. Now, what the 36 00:01:57.879 --> 00:02:00.400 deal looks like, No one has any fucking clue. More 37 00:02:00.400 --> 00:02:02.439 so likely it looks if I had to guess, it's 38 00:02:02.439 --> 00:02:07.239 looking like the stuff that Iran leaked out those deal points. 39 00:02:08.039 --> 00:02:11.439 And I'll start with you, John, like those deal points, 40 00:02:11.479 --> 00:02:13.000 can you give us like a little lay of the 41 00:02:13.080 --> 00:02:14.639 land of what those deal points are? 42 00:02:15.479 --> 00:02:19.840 Yeah, So these fourteen deal points. And first of all, 43 00:02:19.879 --> 00:02:22.000 this is probably not the actual agreement. This is more 44 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:28.360 likely a exercise in public negotiation where Iran is trying 45 00:02:28.439 --> 00:02:31.840 to include the public in this debate because there are 46 00:02:31.919 --> 00:02:33.800 people in the United States that want this conflict over 47 00:02:33.879 --> 00:02:35.520 for various reasons, and there are some who want it 48 00:02:35.639 --> 00:02:38.479 extended for various reasons. And what Iran is trying to 49 00:02:38.479 --> 00:02:41.639 do is use the information environment to influence the behind 50 00:02:41.639 --> 00:02:44.199 the scenes parts of the negotiations. And the US has 51 00:02:44.240 --> 00:02:45.919 done the same thing. If you remember back in I 52 00:02:45.960 --> 00:02:48.639 believe it was March, when there was the initial talk 53 00:02:48.680 --> 00:02:50.759 about any kind of ceasefire, there were a lot of 54 00:02:50.879 --> 00:02:53.879 leaked lists of things. You know, there was a ten 55 00:02:53.919 --> 00:02:55.800 point plan, there was a fourteen point plan, and this 56 00:02:55.840 --> 00:02:57.759 and that, and a lot of that activity is not 57 00:02:57.800 --> 00:03:01.400 necessarily to actually reach a negotiated settlement. Instead is to 58 00:03:01.960 --> 00:03:04.599 let the public know what the contours or edges are 59 00:03:04.800 --> 00:03:07.840 of the negotiation. In other words, what are the the 60 00:03:08.000 --> 00:03:10.639 goalpost limits of the negotiation, like what does the playing 61 00:03:10.639 --> 00:03:13.560 field actually look like here? And this is the same 62 00:03:13.560 --> 00:03:15.520 thing when the US and any other country comes to 63 00:03:15.560 --> 00:03:18.800 the table to negotiate, they come with maximal options because 64 00:03:18.800 --> 00:03:20.520 you don't want to come and bring your like fifty 65 00:03:20.560 --> 00:03:22.360 percent option to the table. You want to bring your 66 00:03:22.400 --> 00:03:25.039 one hundred percent option in and negotiate down to sixty percent. 67 00:03:25.400 --> 00:03:28.919 You don't want to start handicapped. So what Iran is 68 00:03:28.960 --> 00:03:31.680 doing is demonstrating what are its maximalist positions, like what 69 00:03:31.719 --> 00:03:34.439 does it really really want? And then you can think 70 00:03:34.439 --> 00:03:36.520 about this as something that they can walk back from 71 00:03:36.560 --> 00:03:39.360 privately and they can say we've had heroic flexibility and 72 00:03:39.439 --> 00:03:41.759 we have decided to actually meet you at sixty percent. 73 00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:43.879 This is exactly what happened in twenty fifteen, it just 74 00:03:43.960 --> 00:03:48.680 wasn't public. During their Iran JCPOA negotiations with the nuclear deal, 75 00:03:48.960 --> 00:03:51.960 the P five plus one, there were some extreme positions 76 00:03:52.000 --> 00:03:55.800 that started and then if you remember, Iatola Jmeni said, 77 00:03:56.039 --> 00:03:59.719 we have demonstrated heroic flexibility and accepted the nuclear agreement. 78 00:04:00.319 --> 00:04:03.199 So it's actually designed with the end in mind that, okay, 79 00:04:03.240 --> 00:04:05.199 when we actually do make an agreement, we can say that, 80 00:04:05.439 --> 00:04:08.000 you know, for these principles that we hold dear, we 81 00:04:08.080 --> 00:04:11.800 have decided to actually compromise, when in fact those extreme 82 00:04:11.840 --> 00:04:15.319 points were never going to happen anyway. But it's about optics. 83 00:04:15.319 --> 00:04:18.360 How does it look to the consumer of that agreement, 84 00:04:18.360 --> 00:04:20.839 which is the Iranian people, the Iranian regime, the US, 85 00:04:20.959 --> 00:04:22.959 the world. There are a lot of people that Iran 86 00:04:23.079 --> 00:04:24.800 is thinking about, the regime is thinking about of how 87 00:04:24.800 --> 00:04:29.120 to how to frame this properly for consumption globally, privately 88 00:04:29.120 --> 00:04:29.759 and publicly. 89 00:04:30.040 --> 00:04:30.279 Yeah. 90 00:04:30.560 --> 00:04:33.800 Uh So, like what's wild to me though, and make 91 00:04:33.839 --> 00:04:36.560 ID love to get your your you know thoughts on 92 00:04:36.680 --> 00:04:39.319 is but like what's weird to me is like that 93 00:04:39.399 --> 00:04:43.680 came out leaked, but we haven't really heard. Nothing's been 94 00:04:43.759 --> 00:04:45.800 leaked in terms of like what the actual deal is 95 00:04:45.839 --> 00:04:47.279 going to look like, at least as far as I 96 00:04:47.319 --> 00:04:51.160 could I've seen, which is weird to me because if 97 00:04:51.160 --> 00:04:53.399 a deal is so close to being signed and it's 98 00:04:53.480 --> 00:04:59.000 essentially twenty four hours away, wouldn't like the deal points 99 00:04:59.040 --> 00:05:02.360 be already like as closely negotiated as possible, Like you're 100 00:05:02.439 --> 00:05:04.879 right there, you're at the like less than one yard line. 101 00:05:05.720 --> 00:05:06.279 Yeah. 102 00:05:06.600 --> 00:05:08.920 Yeah, So it was a lot of whiplashs last week, right, 103 00:05:08.959 --> 00:05:10.680 So it was like, Hey, we needed to jump on 104 00:05:10.759 --> 00:05:14.000 and talk about going back to war and taking Cargo Island. Hey, 105 00:05:14.040 --> 00:05:15.600 we need to jump back on and talk about how 106 00:05:15.600 --> 00:05:16.920 the fact we're not going to go back to war 107 00:05:17.000 --> 00:05:18.680 and everything's going to be good, and we're about on 108 00:05:18.680 --> 00:05:20.879 the verge of an agreement. Hey, we need to go 109 00:05:20.959 --> 00:05:23.079 back on to talk about Iran saying that all that stuff, 110 00:05:23.160 --> 00:05:25.160 but bullshit, we're not even close to her, you know, 111 00:05:25.240 --> 00:05:28.360 so like and we don't know, we don't know what's 112 00:05:28.399 --> 00:05:31.959 actually going on and what's not. So, you know, not 113 00:05:31.959 --> 00:05:34.879 necessarily complaining about it. It's just that I think people 114 00:05:34.959 --> 00:05:38.120 are to the point where they're like, once an agreement signed, 115 00:05:38.279 --> 00:05:42.399 make it public and then we'll know. Because if you 116 00:05:42.480 --> 00:05:46.439 listen to Iran, as you already said, the uh, that 117 00:05:46.480 --> 00:05:50.680 would be the worst agreement for the US. The points 118 00:05:50.680 --> 00:05:53.319 they leaked. You would essentially give away all your leverage. 119 00:05:53.680 --> 00:05:56.720 We're going to give you sanctionary relief, unfreeze assets just 120 00:05:56.759 --> 00:05:58.639 to open the straight, which you don't possess in the 121 00:05:58.639 --> 00:06:02.360 first place. Then not only would we be paying, and 122 00:06:02.439 --> 00:06:07.519 you could talk about the Reuters report that basically are 123 00:06:07.600 --> 00:06:09.759 some of our Gulf states countries are going to release. 124 00:06:10.680 --> 00:06:12.199 So it won't be US, but it will be that, 125 00:06:12.560 --> 00:06:15.120 but we will collectively be paying them to open the straight. 126 00:06:15.240 --> 00:06:18.920 If that's the case, bad idea. But I think especially 127 00:06:18.920 --> 00:06:23.000 the stuff that the US can control specifically, like sanctions relief, 128 00:06:23.399 --> 00:06:26.480 sanctions opposed by the US, like the frozen assets that 129 00:06:26.519 --> 00:06:30.079 we have direct control of or even influence over, shouldn't 130 00:06:30.120 --> 00:06:33.240 be done until dig into a new nuclear agreement. We 131 00:06:33.319 --> 00:06:38.079 actually need that carot for the agreement given away before 132 00:06:38.079 --> 00:06:40.759 we get the agreement. Man, they're just going to outweight 133 00:06:40.959 --> 00:06:44.959 DISA administration or they just might outweight disadministration on next 134 00:06:45.480 --> 00:06:46.800 because they already got the benefits. 135 00:06:47.079 --> 00:06:47.279 Right. 136 00:06:47.800 --> 00:06:51.800 And let's face it, we all agree that Aron shouldn't 137 00:06:51.800 --> 00:06:54.199 have a nuclear weapon, but I think we can all 138 00:06:54.240 --> 00:06:57.160 accept that right now Iran's thinking we should have a 139 00:06:57.240 --> 00:07:02.240 nuclear weapon. Right, So we've we were in a situation 140 00:07:02.279 --> 00:07:04.360 where this is even more important than it was before 141 00:07:04.360 --> 00:07:10.199 the war, because I'm sure that the IRGC extremists, you know, 142 00:07:10.360 --> 00:07:14.560 even amongst extreamists are saying, told you, we should have 143 00:07:14.519 --> 00:07:16.879 already acquited a nuclear weapon and this wouldn't be an issue. 144 00:07:17.920 --> 00:07:20.040 So it's even more important that we get to there 145 00:07:20.120 --> 00:07:24.079 and we get an ironclad agreement that ensures they don't 146 00:07:24.079 --> 00:07:26.519 get a nuclear weapons, which means recovery of the h 147 00:07:26.600 --> 00:07:31.519 EU highly inerturatium, which means zero enrichment, and it means 148 00:07:31.519 --> 00:07:37.160 the dismantling of the program that is validated by you know, 149 00:07:37.199 --> 00:07:41.560 the IAEA any time anywhere inspections. If we don't get 150 00:07:41.560 --> 00:07:45.439 to that, I think we got issues. We do get 151 00:07:45.480 --> 00:07:47.879 to that, I think it will be viewed as at 152 00:07:47.959 --> 00:07:52.399 least this endeavor was somewhat successful. So for the folks 153 00:07:52.399 --> 00:07:56.639 that are either saying this is you know, already success 154 00:07:56.759 --> 00:07:59.000 or already a failure, I don't think we know yet. 155 00:08:01.000 --> 00:08:03.279 That's to come, and that really is how this is 156 00:08:03.279 --> 00:08:05.800 going to end. It is going to end well for us, 157 00:08:07.160 --> 00:08:09.560 and that's going to come with some sanctions, relief in 158 00:08:09.959 --> 00:08:12.879 unfreezing assets. We've got to accept that. But that's for 159 00:08:12.959 --> 00:08:16.800 the Ironcloud Agreement, not just to do something like open 160 00:08:16.879 --> 00:08:19.399 up the street, you open up the straight the blockade 161 00:08:19.399 --> 00:08:22.839 comes down. That seems fair, right, but after that anything 162 00:08:23.480 --> 00:08:26.279 beneficial and at least from what the US is putting 163 00:08:26.279 --> 00:08:29.879 out they are talking about, this is another issue. The 164 00:08:29.959 --> 00:08:33.759 US is saying that Iraan has given up supporting terrorists organization. 165 00:08:34.960 --> 00:08:40.320 So as you all know, Auran doesn't consider hesbel terrorist organization. 166 00:08:40.440 --> 00:08:42.240 So I don't know if that's just you know, the 167 00:08:42.279 --> 00:08:44.559 way that media is putting it out there, but like 168 00:08:44.639 --> 00:08:51.000 there's no way that that can't be just specific hesbel 169 00:08:51.000 --> 00:08:54.960 a humas obviously US do, isn't going to a terrorist organization. 170 00:08:55.159 --> 00:08:57.960 That's not just a proxy. That's a terrorist organization. So 171 00:08:57.960 --> 00:08:59.960 if we're talking about that, it needs to be covered 172 00:09:00.120 --> 00:09:03.639 and we'll just have to see. Ultimately, I think it's 173 00:09:03.639 --> 00:09:07.799 too early to say this was, you know, entirely successful 174 00:09:07.919 --> 00:09:10.960 or entirely failure. A lot's going to depend on what 175 00:09:11.039 --> 00:09:14.840 happens in the next twenty four hours. For some reason, 176 00:09:14.840 --> 00:09:17.240 that's the new timeline, and it looks like we're going 177 00:09:17.320 --> 00:09:21.919 to be done remotely okay, And I do believe it 178 00:09:22.000 --> 00:09:24.559 was a rap chief of the Foreign Minister that said 179 00:09:24.559 --> 00:09:28.519 it would be public, like it would be posted so 180 00:09:28.559 --> 00:09:30.720 you would know what was agreed to and what wasn't there, 181 00:09:30.799 --> 00:09:33.600 and that both sides need that because we can obviously 182 00:09:33.639 --> 00:09:39.919 see that the the propaganda wars have left us really 183 00:09:39.919 --> 00:09:42.159 puzzled about what is actually being discussed. 184 00:09:42.360 --> 00:09:44.600 Well, the one thing the delta like where they've met 185 00:09:44.679 --> 00:09:50.519 actually or whatever, like the Trump reposted the Foreign misspinisters 186 00:09:50.679 --> 00:09:54.320 tweet about that, so that that it's going to be 187 00:09:54.320 --> 00:09:57.480 public or there's a deal that's eminent or whatever. Yeah, 188 00:09:57.480 --> 00:10:00.200 So like we've kind of I guess met somewhere in 189 00:10:00.240 --> 00:10:04.039 the middle. John, let me ask you, do you think 190 00:10:04.879 --> 00:10:07.519 Lebanon is going to be included in this. 191 00:10:09.320 --> 00:10:11.399 So that's a super important point that I think a 192 00:10:11.399 --> 00:10:15.840 lot of Westerners don't understand why Lebanon matters in this discussion. 193 00:10:17.000 --> 00:10:19.960 As you mentioned, Nick, Hesbola doesn't view itself as a 194 00:10:20.039 --> 00:10:23.480 terrorist organization. Iran doesn't view Hesbula as a terrorist organization. 195 00:10:24.720 --> 00:10:27.120 Some Lebanese people, about a third of the population, do 196 00:10:27.240 --> 00:10:29.919 not consider it a terrorist organization. In fact, their worldview 197 00:10:29.919 --> 00:10:31.200 is kind of what we would consider it to be 198 00:10:31.279 --> 00:10:34.639 inverted based on our worldview. And if you look politically 199 00:10:34.679 --> 00:10:37.840 at Hesbola, what is Hesbola today? They're different than they 200 00:10:37.840 --> 00:10:41.000 were thirty five years ago when they first kind of 201 00:10:41.000 --> 00:10:44.120 said that they were Hesbola. Today they have twenty seven 202 00:10:44.480 --> 00:10:47.600 seats I believe in parliament in Lebanese parliament, as a 203 00:10:47.639 --> 00:10:51.600 political party and as a military force. Their military capability 204 00:10:51.639 --> 00:10:53.240 is more than a Lebanese armed forces. This is a 205 00:10:53.240 --> 00:10:56.120 big problem for the current negotiations between the Israeli government 206 00:10:56.120 --> 00:10:58.879 and the Lebanese government, which is historic because Lebanon does 207 00:10:58.960 --> 00:11:01.559 not recognize Israel as a state and they're in Washington 208 00:11:01.600 --> 00:11:06.000 DC right now trying to negotiate bilaterally about this smaller issue, 209 00:11:06.279 --> 00:11:10.639 the Lebanon Israel issue, relative to the Iran issue. Well, 210 00:11:10.639 --> 00:11:12.919 twenty seven seats in parliament out of one hundred twenty 211 00:11:12.960 --> 00:11:15.840 eight seats in parliament. That's that's how many people, that's 212 00:11:15.840 --> 00:11:20.960 a third almost of the Lebanese government of their parliament 213 00:11:21.000 --> 00:11:23.639 is Hesbulah as a political party. This is something that 214 00:11:23.639 --> 00:11:25.879 cannot be ignored because if you look at from twenty 215 00:11:25.879 --> 00:11:30.440 seventeen through last year, Iran sent the ier GC sent 216 00:11:30.559 --> 00:11:34.200 one billion dollars a year to Hesbula, the military wing 217 00:11:34.519 --> 00:11:37.519 of Hesbula. So that's a lot of money for a 218 00:11:37.919 --> 00:11:42.320 militia in South Lebanon. Right, So if we don't include 219 00:11:42.360 --> 00:11:44.120 that in our equation, it's kind of like when you're 220 00:11:44.120 --> 00:11:46.519 doing algebra and you leave out a variable, your answer 221 00:11:46.600 --> 00:11:49.120 keeps not coming to zero. It's like, why can't I 222 00:11:49.120 --> 00:11:51.240 solve this problem? It's because you're not including that other 223 00:11:51.559 --> 00:11:54.080 variable that has to be included in this larger equation 224 00:11:54.399 --> 00:11:57.360 to balance out all the factors. And so to your point, D, 225 00:11:57.799 --> 00:11:59.320 maybe it is, maybe it isn't. If it is not, 226 00:11:59.399 --> 00:12:01.320 it is a mistake, or if it is not, it 227 00:12:01.360 --> 00:12:05.320 is not going to last because and even Hassan Fuddlah, 228 00:12:05.360 --> 00:12:08.399 he's the son of an earlier HESBULA member, a very 229 00:12:08.440 --> 00:12:11.960 prominent Hesbula supporter from the eighties. Two days ago, was 230 00:12:11.960 --> 00:12:14.879 making a speech in the Dahiya neighborhood, which is south 231 00:12:15.000 --> 00:12:17.879 South Bay route that Israel had bombed, which is the 232 00:12:17.879 --> 00:12:20.840 thing that triggered Iran to hit Israel this past week. 233 00:12:21.279 --> 00:12:22.919 He was making a speech and he said that if 234 00:12:23.360 --> 00:12:25.759 Lebanon is not included in the agreement, the agreement will 235 00:12:25.759 --> 00:12:28.720 not last, which is actually if you read Iran's you 236 00:12:28.759 --> 00:12:31.440 know what the Iran state sponsored media mayor a news 237 00:12:31.480 --> 00:12:34.600 agency released two days ago, that was the first point 238 00:12:34.840 --> 00:12:38.519 in the fourteen points that if Lebanon is not included, 239 00:12:38.519 --> 00:12:40.759 this deal will not happen. Basically is what it came to. 240 00:12:41.159 --> 00:12:44.159 So it seems that Hesbola and the IERGC are on 241 00:12:44.200 --> 00:12:47.639 the same page. They're both probably in open channels of 242 00:12:47.679 --> 00:12:50.559 communication about what this deal should look like because it 243 00:12:50.639 --> 00:12:53.519 matters to Iran what happens in Lebanon. The reason is 244 00:12:53.559 --> 00:12:56.080 because of the nuclear program. If Iran can't have a 245 00:12:56.159 --> 00:13:00.720 nuclear program, they're thinking, how do we protect our territorial integris, Well, 246 00:13:00.720 --> 00:13:03.279 we have to have surrogate forces between Israel and US. 247 00:13:04.120 --> 00:13:06.799 The two most prominent surrogate forces are Hezbolah, which is 248 00:13:06.840 --> 00:13:09.519 part of Hashtashabi or the popular mobilization forces in Iraq, 249 00:13:09.879 --> 00:13:12.799 and then in Lebanon. Because we've lost Syria. Iran says, 250 00:13:12.840 --> 00:13:15.799 we've lost Syria to USAD to Assunni. So now all 251 00:13:15.799 --> 00:13:17.960 we have left is Hesbola in Lebanon, and we have 252 00:13:18.039 --> 00:13:21.159 to keep them alive, like on life support. Otherwise we 253 00:13:21.240 --> 00:13:24.679 lose our territorial integrity, our ability to actually have standoff 254 00:13:25.000 --> 00:13:28.000 defense of our borders against Israel. So this is how 255 00:13:28.039 --> 00:13:30.320 they're thinking about it. So if we aren't thinking about 256 00:13:30.360 --> 00:13:32.919 it like that too, if we're not creating an incentive 257 00:13:33.080 --> 00:13:35.559 for them to put this into the deal in a 258 00:13:35.559 --> 00:13:37.799 way that makes sense for us, this deal is going 259 00:13:37.840 --> 00:13:39.519 to be very weak. It's going to be very difficult 260 00:13:39.559 --> 00:13:40.080 to enforce. 261 00:13:41.679 --> 00:13:44.000 That is the biggest challenge of this because it really 262 00:13:44.039 --> 00:13:46.840 does appear to me and maybe this is shifting, which 263 00:13:46.840 --> 00:13:49.159 would be great, but the US is like the one 264 00:13:49.159 --> 00:13:52.480 that actually wants us to come to the end the most, right. 265 00:13:52.879 --> 00:13:56.840 So Arod's like, huh, this is really working this whole season. 266 00:13:56.840 --> 00:14:03.039 The straight force in this economic energy crisis. They're autocracy, right, 267 00:14:03.120 --> 00:14:06.440 so they don't really there. They're there. People can take 268 00:14:06.480 --> 00:14:10.679 a lot of pain people and democracies can do something 269 00:14:10.720 --> 00:14:14.159 about it. They realize that, right, So and then then Israel, 270 00:14:14.360 --> 00:14:17.240 I mean this, this this could be a worst case 271 00:14:17.240 --> 00:14:21.559 scenario for prime minister. Yeah, right, so they get what 272 00:14:21.600 --> 00:14:23.879 are they talking about for the UA releasing like twelve 273 00:14:23.919 --> 00:14:27.480 billion dollars? Yeah, yeah, I'm want to make sure I 274 00:14:27.480 --> 00:14:30.759 get that right. But because Israa's looking at you know, 275 00:14:30.840 --> 00:14:33.919 billion dollars is a billion dollars no matter who's releasing it, right, Son, 276 00:14:33.919 --> 00:14:37.639 All of a sudden, this regime who's super pissed off 277 00:14:37.639 --> 00:14:41.559 and we killed a lot of them, gets twelve million dollars. 278 00:14:41.919 --> 00:14:44.519 There's a peace agreement, there's a nuclear agreement that I'm 279 00:14:44.519 --> 00:14:46.879 sure Israel it's not going to agree with. And now 280 00:14:47.000 --> 00:14:55.279 Israel's required to withdraw and leave Hesbalala armed and somewhat intact. 281 00:14:55.960 --> 00:14:59.639 So from their perspective, that's not a good scenario. And 282 00:14:59.679 --> 00:15:02.519 they and they made it clear that they're not actually 283 00:15:02.519 --> 00:15:06.159 included in the ceasefire. So this is a I think 284 00:15:06.200 --> 00:15:09.240 this is going to be an issue that's shared the burden, 285 00:15:09.360 --> 00:15:12.039 if you will, by the United States and ron As 286 00:15:12.120 --> 00:15:16.399 Jonathan just so aptly explained the relationship between Iran and 287 00:15:16.480 --> 00:15:22.720 hesblah uh. They have influence, right, you know, they considerably 288 00:15:22.759 --> 00:15:26.960 funded them a billion dollars a year. They need to 289 00:15:26.960 --> 00:15:29.679 be a part of the regional piece or on being, 290 00:15:30.120 --> 00:15:35.039 you know, putting direct pressure on Hesbola both to stay 291 00:15:35.360 --> 00:15:40.080 north of the Latani River, to not attack Israel at 292 00:15:40.200 --> 00:15:43.000 least at the at the basic level. And then of 293 00:15:43.000 --> 00:15:45.320 course the United States would have a better time trying 294 00:15:45.320 --> 00:15:48.440 to influence our partner. But it's that's going to be 295 00:15:48.480 --> 00:15:52.279 the big challenge. It's it is going to be the 296 00:15:52.360 --> 00:15:55.159 thing that everybody's going to be looking at, which could 297 00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:57.000 blow this up, even if it's agreed to. 298 00:15:59.440 --> 00:16:01.000 Your match is one of those things you don't think 299 00:16:01.039 --> 00:16:03.200 about until it's too late, until you're waking up with 300 00:16:03.320 --> 00:16:05.720 aches and pains and realizing you've been sleeping on a 301 00:16:05.759 --> 00:16:09.360 problem for years. Today's sponsor, Ghostbed is here to change that. 302 00:16:09.519 --> 00:16:11.720 And with the summer coming, there's one more thing worth 303 00:16:11.720 --> 00:16:15.039 thinking about. Sleeping hot. If you ever woken up in 304 00:16:15.039 --> 00:16:17.679 the middle of the night overheated and uncomfortable, you know 305 00:16:17.720 --> 00:16:20.879 how much of rex you sleep. 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What is 341 00:17:57.519 --> 00:18:00.000 the net effect of the situation, and the net effect 342 00:18:00.079 --> 00:18:03.640 the situation is that vessels are not moving at the 343 00:18:03.680 --> 00:18:05.680 same rate they were before the war started. And it's 344 00:18:05.680 --> 00:18:07.799 not just because the US is bobbing her on. It's 345 00:18:07.799 --> 00:18:11.119 because there's a thread against those vessels economically that even 346 00:18:11.119 --> 00:18:14.680 if it was actually materially safe, like the boat could 347 00:18:14.680 --> 00:18:17.640 go through without blowing up. Insurance companies, which are all 348 00:18:17.680 --> 00:18:20.240 completely based on risk analyses are looking at this and saying, 349 00:18:20.480 --> 00:18:22.680 I don't care if it's actually safe. We're not sending 350 00:18:22.720 --> 00:18:25.279 our vessels because unless you're willing to pay two million 351 00:18:25.319 --> 00:18:28.960 dollars per vessel for insurance plus the whatever toll Iran 352 00:18:29.000 --> 00:18:31.839 wants to charge, you're not passing through with my ship. 353 00:18:32.079 --> 00:18:34.720 I'm not going to ensure that vessel. And that's really 354 00:18:34.759 --> 00:18:38.079 what is the important point about the Straits. Iran doesn't 355 00:18:38.119 --> 00:18:40.960 even have to be there. It's it's the feeling that 356 00:18:41.000 --> 00:18:44.519 these companies have, these economic interests, have looking at the 357 00:18:44.519 --> 00:18:47.319 strait saying it's just not worth it. And until it 358 00:18:47.359 --> 00:18:50.880 becomes worth it, the vessel frequency is going to remain 359 00:18:51.039 --> 00:18:51.440 very low. 360 00:18:52.720 --> 00:18:52.960 Yep. 361 00:18:53.319 --> 00:18:56.920 And I'm told by somebody at fairly not fairly, I'm 362 00:18:56.960 --> 00:18:59.960 very confident knows what he's talking about. Is it there? 363 00:19:00.240 --> 00:19:02.640 There can be some seepage. I don't know if that's 364 00:19:02.640 --> 00:19:05.400 the correct word, but it's only on the outflow. In 365 00:19:05.440 --> 00:19:08.440 other words, you could use the you can use limited 366 00:19:09.720 --> 00:19:13.160 outflow through the southern part of the of the passage, 367 00:19:13.519 --> 00:19:15.799 but you can't get in. I don't know why that's case. 368 00:19:16.400 --> 00:19:20.279 So we might eventually over time it'll be way reduced 369 00:19:20.279 --> 00:19:23.519 to Jonathan's point, which still means that the crisis exists. 370 00:19:24.039 --> 00:19:26.079 But even once you get them all out, like I 371 00:19:26.079 --> 00:19:28.039 don't know, months and months and months, like, you're not 372 00:19:28.039 --> 00:19:31.119 getting any in. So it's eventually even that is just 373 00:19:31.160 --> 00:19:35.480 like a reserve that would eventually run dry, and eventually 374 00:19:35.519 --> 00:19:38.079 they're real reserves and countries around the world are going 375 00:19:38.160 --> 00:19:41.039 to run dry. Like even if this is solved, apparently 376 00:19:41.079 --> 00:19:45.759 this issue is just going to be resolved economically for months. 377 00:19:46.079 --> 00:19:48.920 The longer it goes on, the more compounding it's going 378 00:19:48.960 --> 00:19:51.680 to be. And again it's not just energy, it's also 379 00:19:52.279 --> 00:19:55.920 you know, the nitrogen, the material used to make a fertilizer, 380 00:19:56.079 --> 00:19:59.960 that's key for food production. Yeah, you know the hydrogen 381 00:20:00.079 --> 00:20:04.759 and are the night yeah, Helium helium, Yeah, that's used 382 00:20:04.759 --> 00:20:07.839 to make the high tech chips, and all these things 383 00:20:07.839 --> 00:20:12.720 are just gonna compound and get really consequential. The only person, 384 00:20:12.839 --> 00:20:16.640 the only country that seems to be there isn't a 385 00:20:16.640 --> 00:20:19.920 country actually that's not impacted. Obviously Aron's impacted by the 386 00:20:19.960 --> 00:20:23.079 blockade and everything else. But this is really something that 387 00:20:23.079 --> 00:20:24.920 I think the United States is going to press on, 388 00:20:25.480 --> 00:20:27.559 but it's got a lot of challenges ahead of it 389 00:20:28.759 --> 00:20:29.200 to make sure. 390 00:20:30.279 --> 00:20:32.759 And even before the war started, China, the number one 391 00:20:32.759 --> 00:20:35.680 purchaser of oil from Iran, has been transitioning to an 392 00:20:35.720 --> 00:20:39.720 electrical vehicle society and just I believe it was in 393 00:20:39.799 --> 00:20:42.960 April they reached thirty three percent vehicles on the road 394 00:20:43.000 --> 00:20:44.799 are electric, are completely. 395 00:20:44.400 --> 00:20:49.559 Electric, massive solar's they CNN did a whole piece on it. 396 00:20:49.559 --> 00:20:52.799 It's not just the solar fields, but they have mirrors 397 00:20:52.799 --> 00:20:57.640 that direct the the sunlight into these towers. Have you 398 00:20:57.640 --> 00:20:58.039 seen these? 399 00:20:58.960 --> 00:21:00.799 Yeah, they're becoming energy independent. 400 00:21:01.160 --> 00:21:04.319 Yeah, energy independent. So that's gonna even there. There are 401 00:21:04.480 --> 00:21:07.359