Speaker 1: One.
Speaker 2: You're lie.
Speaker 1: Welcome to the best sports betting show on the planet.
This is wager Talk Today. I am your host, Andy Lang.
It is Friday, and we're setting up a big weekend.
MLB is back, UFC is on deck. We got plenty
of angles to break down before we get to baseball.
So let's close the week strong. Let's get ready for
the weekend. We got a lot of units to stack up.
Gihanni's gonna join us. Should have a big day for
the Steam Report with MLB being back in full force.
Marco's gonna join us. We're gonna talk Tigers and Rangers.
We're also gonna talk just a little bit of NBA
and some betting strategy for Marco. And then Andrew Babikiitis
is gonna join us. We're gonna talk UFC three eighteen.
Where is the action. There's one line that is baffling me.
I'll get Giohanny's take on it too, because there's a
line movement that I don't get in the slightest and
then Dan and I are gonna break down the San
Francisco forty nine ers monster season win total at ten
and a half. So thank you very much for joining us.
Everyone hit that like button. Let's get started and bring
in Gianni Gianni. I'm guessing we got a pretty good
steam report with MLB. I've been looking at some of
the line movements. Looks like we got quite a bit
going on. What are you seeing so far this morning?
And Happy Friday to you.
Speaker 3: Good morning, block mom man, Welcome to the party. Yeah, busy, busy, busy.
Couple signs in totals. Most of the totals got hit overnight.
I haven't released any baseball yet, two subscribers. I'm always
cautious the first day back, so you know, waiting for
more information to come in. And as I always talk
about the guys from up North, they bet about an
hour from now. So if anything confirmed, subscribers, you will
be receiving baseball probably in the next ninety minutes during
this live steam room. But what I can share, I
did release a summer League play. I know you guys
are fans of those four percent play four percent play
on Utah Jazz plus the two Utah Jazz plus two
and a half.
Speaker 2: We took two and a half.
Speaker 3: We took plus two as well on the Utah Jazz
Sprinkle A little bit of money line but Utah Jazz
four percent play means one percent of bank roll in
summer league. That's all I had for summer league so far.
Here's what we got in Major League Baseball. I'll get
the totals out of the way quick, because again, most
of those were overnights.
Speaker 2: Numbers definitely won't be availuable right.
Speaker 3: Now, but at least you know why they moved nine
to eighty over ten and a half up to minus
one thirty Minnesota Colorado nine sixty eight over eight up
the minus one thirty White Sox Pittsburgh and nine fifty
five over eight and a half up to minus one
twenty Saint.
Speaker 2: Louis, Arizona.
Speaker 3: A couple of the sides that got hit already nine
p fifty two, Washington plus one forty nine to fifty nine,
Athletics plus one twenty nine sixty four, Texas Texas even money,
nine sixty six, Seattle minus one fifteen.
Speaker 2: Nine sixty eight, Cubs.
Speaker 3: Minus one twenty five, and last but not least, Chicago
White Sox plus one forty five. That's game nine sixty nine.
So couple flips that they took plus money on and
small pick ons that they laid minus one, ten mins
one fifth team on favorites, but again.
Speaker 2: Still early in the day. But baseball's back, baby.
Speaker 3: Second half of baseball always always always tons of opportunities,
especially as they get down a little bit later, and
you get a lot of the clubs bringing up the youth.
You know, the teams that know they're not in the playoffs,
they're mathematically eliminated, more or less, they start bringing up
the youth. Those teams tend to be undervalued because they're
they're the standings. They look awful on the standings, but
all of a sudden, you have a motivated team like
those are some money makers during the summer, some of
those teams that did so bad in the first half
that they're bringing up the youth, But the youth wants
to make the team, like they don't want to be
sent back down the Triple A ball. They want to
make MLB roster. So these guys are actually showing up
and playing. And I think that's why on some of
these season win totals on teams that have been so
poor in the first half that are definitely eliminated from
any playoff contention, we went over in the second half
expecting exactly that that's sure. The veterans probably don't care anymore.
They know they're not making the playoffs. They may have
given up on the season. But when you bring these
young guys, all of a sudden, they have reason to
play each and every night. So now you get an
undervalue team that's motivated. And we all know we've talked
about it when the season started, everyone's going to be
between winning close to forty percent of their games and
fifty five percent of the game. Ranking that fifteen percent margin,
it makes some money man teams to get into that
little window or teams to get out of that window.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you have these teams have different rosters. At the
end of the season. It's like hardly any of the
normal starters are even playing. There a couple of moves.
I wanted to ask you about the San Diego Washington.
I'm guessing this is a fade of Dylan Cees. I
don't know. It seems a little bit risky because the
Washington pitcher hasn't been that great. But you got two
losing pictures. But I guess that's more of a just
take the big plus money odds on that one and
then the other one. Oh yeah, Boston and the Cubs
wanted to ask you about that one. That seems a
little odd to me. They're fading Giolito, who's been what
lights out that I don't know. It seems a little
risky is that. I don't know if you can tell
is that public money coming in like everyone loves the
Cubs or I'm wondering what they're seeing with that line move.
Speaker 2: Yeah, now the Cubs.
Speaker 3: The Cubs line, I can tell you right now is
getting public money. It got a little bit of sharp
money as well, early early, but since then it's been
mostly public money, and that's pushing that line up. I
kind of lean Cubs a little bit myself, to be
honest with you. I just don't think I'll be able
to bet that later number. But they got down one
twenty five. That's what I bet it for them when
that number was the valuable in San Diego Washington. I
think it's the splits with San Diego. I mean, if
you're okay, we probably want to do it on the road,
you know where they're five games under five hundred now
returning from the break. Going into the break, they were
playing pretty good. I mean they won three of their
last four, but that's usually a bad thing. Like when
you're running hot, you want to keep playing, when you
have momentum, you want to keep playing. Where with Washington,
I think that's exactly what you need when you're running
as cold as Washington. The break is a good thing.
We talk about it in the NFL all the time,
like the bye week couldn't be worse. When a team's
playing great, you know, when they're having five hundred yards
offense and they've won and covered three four straight games,
the last thing you want is a bye week. Last
thing you want is a break. But when a team
goes in there having lost their last three, they're underperforming
the betting market, you know, not covering by ten twelve points,
that's exactly the type of team that needs an all
Star break or a buye. And I think that's kind
of that perfect storm where Washington, you know, won one
of their last nine games heading into this buy. I
think that was definitely needed by them. And again, two
pitchers that haven't been winning ball games for their teams,
and both of them are hitable. I mean, look at
san Diego with Ceas, He's given what six earned runs
in two of his last five starts, only yes, given
below three. I think a hitable guy on the road.
I think that's why they're in Washington.
Speaker 1: I'll give you my fade today. It's the Angels who
could barely decide on a starting pitcher coming out of
the All Star break like you had all this time.
You can barely figure out who's your starting pitcher. That's
a team I want no part of. I want to
talk to UFC here because there's a couple of lines
that have moved. When to get your thoughts on there.
I'll start with the one. I don't understand it all.
What's up with all the money coming in on Kyler Phillips.
This one, I can't figure out. This guy has no
cardio once it gets to the third round. He just
let Rob Font. He won the first round against Rob Font,
and they got dominated in rounds two and three. I'm
not sure what people like about him. And I have
had a spot on read on Kyler Phillips. I've bet
on him, i bet against him. I've been spot on.
I don't get this line at all. You have any intel?
Speaker 2: Yeah, great, great quest.
Speaker 3: I'm throw glad you yere in on that fight because
we actually talked about it on my weekly UFC podcast,
The Gambler's Perspective, which you could get the link on
my Twitter at Greek Underscore Gambler. And actually me and
Nick disagree this week on on our matchups. That's actually
a fight we spoke about.
Speaker 2: And here's why.
Speaker 3: I think the money came in on Kyler Phillips, and
it came in immediately, and I actually expected that to
happen to where we take the UFC on the line
last week last Friday. They aired it this Monday, and
you know, they make it look like it's live, but
it wasn't. We didn't even have props. We did it
last week. And when we're taping two weeks out, it's
hard to handicap a matchup. So what I do is
I handicap the betting line and I try to determine
which way the line's going to move and try to
get out ahead of it place good bets.
Speaker 2: And it's worked out for me on the show.
Speaker 3: That's why, again it's not the brag, but I've we've
had this is our seventh season. I've won five or
six seasons. I've turned the prompt and last year was
my best. But I just don't focus on trying to
predict the winner. I focus on where I think the
line's going to go and get out ahead of it.
And it's worked out in that show because again we
take early, always way in advance. So here's why I
gave out Kyler Phillips on that show in advance, because
you've got to remember how these two fighters are coming off.
You got Kyler Phillips who's coming off a loss, but
he closes a minus six thirty favorite. On the flip side,
you have Venisius Olivera. He's coming off back to back wins,
so he wins as a plus one seventy dog against
Simone tough out, always a tough out. And then he's
he closes a two to one dog against Normoga Medoff.
Just that name, Normago Medoff. You're going to pay a
premium for it, yes, the fact that that Olavera got
past him as a two to one dog. And on
the other side of it, again you have a fighter
like Phillips coming off losing as a minus six thirty favorite.
I knew the Sharps were going to bet on Phillips
because their reasoning is this, had that fight not happen,
or more importantly, had he won as a minus six
hundred favorites, because minus six hundreds usually win very rarely
do they win lose. Had he won that fight against Font,
what would this line be where.
Speaker 2: We got you?
Speaker 3: Okay, possibly Olvera may not even be the favorite in
that matchup beaten Font. And the argument though, is from
the guys that that that like the Olvera side, and I.
Speaker 2: Think this makes sense as well.
Speaker 3: We may conclude Andy six months from now or a
year from now, that Olavera actually should have been a
two to one favorite over Kyler Phillips. You know what
I mean. It's just you just don't know that yet,
so you're kind of projecting. And I think that's where
they saw value on Kyler Phillips, that this is closer
to a coin flip than one fighter being, you know,
a minus one fifty over the other and they're both
coming off fights one, you know, whereas a two hundred
dog you're usually going to lose and a minus six
hundred favorite usually going to win. The opposites happened, So
I think they saw that line having a lot of
recency bias to it. That's what I expected, and you
know it followed, Sue. That's why you're seeing that money
come in on Phillips rest a short. Come Saturday, that
line's going to move back off.
Speaker 1: It's already it's already started. Yeah, it's already started moving
this morning. I've seen, so.
Speaker 2: It's gonna go back off.
Speaker 3: I talk to guys that like Olivera, whose opinion I respect, so.
Speaker 2: They'll be batting him.
Speaker 1: I'm all over Oliver. I'm all over OLIVERA. So uh yeah,
I like that one as well. All right. Uh and
then just before we get your go Max Holloway, Dustin
Poorrie seeing any movement come in. If anything, it's Holloway
money at this point, I think. But my guess is
the dustin Poorie and money pours in on Saturday for
his retirement fight.
Speaker 3: Yes, you nailed it, brother, That's exactly what is going
to happen. The Max money came in immediately. Pouria opened
as a dog at the first book that went to
market that didn't last at all. Max money came in
and that continued, and I think that the dust and
betters just see that line climbing. So what are they
going to rush for? You know, I could have got
plus one ten yesterday. I could get plus.
Speaker 2: One team today. Tomorrow, I could probably get plus one
twenty five.
Speaker 3: So I think they're waiting, and I think a lot
of the recreational betters that will be on Dustin havn't
gotten to the window yet. It's been Sharp Holloway money
so far, not recreational betters. But there will be sharp
betters on Pooria also, especially where the line sits right now,
because you've got to remember, these guys are betting numbers,
and a lot of guys I spoke to they said
that they all mimic the same thing. They're betting the dog.
If Max was the dog, they'd be betting Max. Now
poor is the dog. They're gonna betting Pooria. So to them,
it's just about the number. And you know, I think
you're gonna see sharp betters on pour A. You're gonna
see public betters on poor A, and that line's gonna drop.
I bet Max Holloway. It's a three percent play for me.
It would have been a four percent play had I
not had opposition. Guys I respect on the Dustin Pourrier sign,
but that's usually going to be the case in most
fights that are below two hundred. You're gonna get two
way sharp action. The difference is what numbers they're betting
it at, you know what I mean. Sure they're taking
higher plus and laying lower minuses than where the market
sits right now. It's usually they both got good bets
at different numbers, and that's what usually happens in n
and night.
Speaker 2: But I personally think it's a really good card.
Speaker 3: I think, you know, it's more favorite heavy, but you
know that's usually the case.
Speaker 1: Uh, just going back to baseball before we let you go,
you mentioned you you take it maybe a little bit
light when we're coming out of it. So any games
that kind of that, you're like, yeah, that's an exact
reason why I take it light. Like teams that you
don't want to bet on are teams you're a little
worried about coming out of the break today.
Speaker 2: Well, yeah, you got to.
Speaker 4: You have to.
Speaker 3: I'm not like again, like teams like I'm excited to bet,
I still got to slow down because we have a
long second half. Like you guys know, I'm high on
the White Sox. In the second half, I'm going to
be looking for reasons to bet the White Sox in
the second half, I'm going to be looking for reasons.
Speaker 2: To fade the Dodgers in the second half.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna be looking for reasons to fade Detroit in
the second half. I already have those teams isolated, And
if you bought the package that has the six season
win totals and the three futures, then you know what
teams we've isolated and are looking the back and looking
to faith.
Speaker 2: And that's it right now.
Speaker 3: It's just being selected, Mandy and waiting for those opportunities,
waiting for these teams to regress and progress towards the mean,
just like we did in the first half, where we
started fading those teams that got out really hot, started
betting those teams that came out really cold, And now
we have a big enough sample size that we could
just win some repeat in the second half. We already
know what we're expecting from these teams. Now it's just
a matter of, you know, finding positions to fade or
back them.
Speaker 2: But slow, slow, slow, and steady wins the.
Speaker 3: Race when it comes to baseball because you're going to
have so many betting opportunities.
Speaker 1: I love it. I love it. We got a big weekend, Johnny.
Tell everyone, what do you have up for clients? This week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you'd already know.
Speaker 3: The NFL and college football season win total futures package
is up. I added for I think college football season
win totals yesterday. Every one of them was a four
percent play, so I think you got six futures in
there now already. More will be coming throughout this month
and part of August. I have the UFC three eighteen
package up with a five percent play. You already know
seventy percent on my last thirty five percent number one
over the last like I think three hundred sixt five
days in the morning, MMA on those five percents, and
the baseball package will be up within the next sixty
minutes once my guys from up north fire, And as
you know, we have the steam room going off in
forty five minutes. If you are a long term subscriber,
or even if you signed up over the last twenty
four to forty eight hours and have a week or more,
you should have gotten the invitation as well. Come to
the steam room. We'll go over everything baseball, baseball, second
halfs a little football futures baseball.
Speaker 2: For today MMA.
Speaker 3: For Saturday, we have I think PFL as well, so
we got a lot to talk to be in the
steam room. Don't be late one pm Eastern. We'll knock
it out within sixty minutes. Thank you do love you
guys man. Thanks for the support.
Speaker 1: Thank you Johnny. Nobody does it better. And yeah, that's
if you if you bet like Jihanny or you want
to bet like Jiohnny, that is just a really really
good explanation of how you can predict where the money
is going to go, and you can get outside the
line or you can get the best of the line movement.
So it was a great explanation on how he did
that right there. So we have a new promo that
went up today. It's a great one. They always love
running these really great promos in the summertime. You can
get all of August for two ninety nine, but the
quicker you get it, you get the rest of July
for free. So this is a smoking deal going into
the weekend, especially when we have baseball back, we have UFC,
We've got all kinds of sports and August for only
two ninety nine. But don't wait until August. Get it
right now, because the every day that you get in
July is going to be free. So if you're interested
in getting to thirty days, you can extend that to
forty forty five days, So big weekend. If there's a
handicapper that you've been wanting to try, go for it
right now. That way you get plays starting now. Every
day in July is going to be free. So it's
thirty days in July in August and you get the
rest of July for free, absolutely smoking deal. That's on
the deal's page over at wager Talk. So all right, Dan,
let's go all around the world. We got a nice,
nice all around the World edition. Today, we got PFL,
we got baseball, and then Dan's going to join us
and do a player prop in Premier Lacrosse League. Let's
start with baseball. These two plays are on the wager
Talk Free Picks page. White Sox at the Pirates, like
the Pirates under four and a half on the team total,
Pirates are averaging three point three runs against righties and
as home favorites against righties under four and a half
runs sixty eight point four percent of the time this year.
That's from Ronald Kobeng And then Cardinals at Diamondbacks like
the Cardinals at plus went away, Fat has bad numbers
against the Cardinals Diamondbacks bullpen has been bad. Both these
pitchers are actually better on the road than they have
been at home. So we're going to take the Cardinals
at plus one oh eight and we go to PFL
happy to code a ditch of a week. Everybody, she's
gonna be the big draw. But look at the undercard.
Justin Clark minus one forty eight over Joshelle Ahwa. There
are some really bad fighters on this card. This is
PFL Africa. There are some horrific fighters on this card. Dan,
you're getting ready to come on. This is how bad
Joshelle Ahwa is. His last fight, he lost and he
got knocked out. Okay, except it was in power slap.
He's lapping.
Speaker 4: I see you.
Speaker 1: Laughing, shaking your head everything you need to know. So
this guy is gonna fight a professional fight, but he
just got knocked out.
Speaker 2: He just got this shit slapped out of him, for
lack of a better term.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, so Justin Clark is only two to zero
as a professional, but he starts off very strong. He
applies a lot of pressure and anybody that's getting knocked
out in power slap is not getting my money. So
give me Justin Clark, you got a player prop that
you like for pl tell us about that one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, pl Action.
Speaker 5: Tonight we have one playloaded for clients with you over
at Andy's Pagewt dot Buzz slash al That game goes tomorrow,
a nice underdog spot. But tonight we're looking at a
guy who has just climbed in the MVP market.
Speaker 1: This game going this evening.
Speaker 5: It's New York taking on California, and we're taking the
New York attackman, Connor Schellenberger to go over two and
a half goals. As I alluded to Andy, just a
week ago, this guy was fifty to one in the
MVP marketplace. He's now the second favorite at five to one.
Main reason is this guy's coming off a seven point outing.
Speaker 2: Last week four goals he scored.
Speaker 5: He's only had three hat tricks this season or three
games with three or more goals. But last season versus
the Redwoods, he had four goals and seven points facing
off against them, So I think it's a really nice matchup.
Defense doesn't set up well, and the Redwoods are just
in a free fall right now. They've lost four straight
games after starting two and zero. No reason to think
that New York who's trending up shouldn't continue. Connor Schellenberger
has been a huge part of that. So let's go
over his two and a half goals at a nice
juicy plus one twenty six price little plus money player
prop for you. Connor Schellenberger tonight in pll over the
two and a half goals.
Speaker 1: I love it. I love it, and I'm wondering if Dan,
as a producer, is worried that I'm drinking coffee out
of a cup and wearing.
Speaker 5: A worried but amy I might have my coffee and
a cup next to me. So if yours is going
down on your computer, mind's going down.
Speaker 1: I'm Mike, Well, I'm worried about the white shirt thing.
You spill yours Nobody notices, Uh yeah, on the white shirt.
Now we got trouble. Now we got trouble, Roger asked
after a while, isn't some brain damage causing such decision? Sadly? Yeah,
you're seeing these guys in Power Slap and also in BKFC.
These guys need money. That's just the facts. If you're
not a very very famous fighter, you don't get paid
a whole lot. So guys take chances and they go
into sports that they probably have no business being a
part of. And sadly, that is the reality of it.
And my job is to make money. And if he's
willing to do that sport, I am willing to bet
against him. That is how we build bankrolls in those sports.
So it's sad but true. I follow all of them.
You see guys making terrible decisions. But if they're going
to put a line out and I can find advantage,
I'm gonna take it. I'm gonna take it every single time.
So one of the reasons why we're number one in
MMA profits in twenty twenty five. So we got some
really good feedback on bankroll management when we did that
the other day, several people reached out and said, hey,
can you talk more about that? Sure we can. I'll
talk a little bit about it. It's gonna be a
great segue to bring in Marco. So I look at
my bankroll as part of my investment portfolio. I have
three different pieces. Call it what you will. I have
my crypto, I have my stocks, and I'm my sports betting.
And what we've been doing with the sports betting is
we just recently lowered to really really low volume, mostly
based around this new tax bill. That thing is gonna stick,
so we need to hit at a higher percentage, and
I'm gonna bet more per bet than I normally do.
So you guys have heard me talk about flat betting
two percent. I'm probably bumping that to three percent. Why
we only have six plays that are in for this week.
Last week we had ten plays. We went seven and
three for five units. Perfect. That's what we're gonna do.
So I'm looking at the rest of the year lowering
the volume and upping how much that we put on
to try and increase that part of the portfolio. Last
week I brought in five percent.
Speaker 2: I do that.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna be rich. So that's part of the bank
roll management that we are working towards, and I'll walk
you guys through it. I'm looking at two golf plays
that should be getting ready to cash. Looking forward to those,
and then we move to PFL and UFC. If you
want to join us on our UFC and PFL plays,
we have a pack that's up UFC and PFL best bets.
There's three of them in there. Those are plays that
we bet with our own money, So that's that's how
we do it. And if you guys want me to
talk about it more, I'll be more than happy to
share with you some of my numbers and some of
the things that I'm in. I'm not a financial advisor,
just a guy talking on the internet. That's the that's
the official disclaimer. So I want to bring in Marco here. Marco,
we're going to talk baseball, but real quick, I do
want to bring up WNBA because it's a perfect It's
just a perfect bridge here in WNBA. I looked this up.
You're forty two and eighteen the last two years, plus
fifty seven units, so you have had sixty plays the
last two years, and yet your returns are better than
the SNP than most of these stocks. They'd probably bitcoy,
they'd probably you know, maybe no not XRP just over
the last week, but that price was so low. But
this is what I love about it, your low volume.
You picked your spots and you hit it an insane
rate and you don't have to worry about it that much.
So give me fifty seven percent over the last couple seasons.
That I wanted you to talk about how you keep
it low volume? What's your secret to this and how
this is a perfect way to turn your sports betting
in portfolio profitable.
Speaker 2: Well, Andy, I've always been a low volume guy. That's
just been my nature. And why because you know, I'm
in this for the long haul and I don't like
you know, a lot of variance. And now I'm not saying
that the way anybody else does something is you know
that my ways better, their ways better. This is the
best way for me. Everybody has their own style, and
for me, I would rather play a little bit more
on the games, but play less games than rather spreading
out and have ten or fifteen plays. You know, every
day I picked my spots. You know, we've only had
you know, forty eight and twelve sixty plays over the
last you know, two seasons in the WNBA, but or
forty two and eighteen. I'm sorry, but you know, hitting
seventy percent for two years is absolutely phenomenal. And you know,
so if you had to ask me, did I expect
that kind of return, you know, I'm gonna be honest no,
But there's a lot of inefficiencies in this particular market,
and probably over half of those plays have been player props.
You know, we've had sides, we've had totals, but most
of the plays do come in with player props. And
I think that the reason for that and why it's
so bad is, you know we all joke nobody wants
to watch the WNBA. Well, if you're not watching it,
you're missing some entertaining basketball. I know that sounds lame,
but I do enjoy watching the games, and I go
to all the games here in Vegas with the aces.
But what happens is the people setting the lines on
these player props, and this is how they do it.
They look at the season average for each player. Okay,
player X is averaging twenty two points per game. That
means their player prop is gonna be either twenty one
and a half or twenty two and a half. If
they had a couple of games in a row where
they went over or under their season average, then to
adjusted that direction. They don't take into account that every
team has different rosters in different strengths. Some teams strengths
are their inside play, you know, the front court. The
other teams it's the backcourt. Well, player props. Every game
there's gonna be a different game plan, and you've got
to understand the teams in what their strengths are and
how they're gonna attack. And you know, the other night,
I had, you know, a four percent play. It came
so close to being my first five percent play ever
in the WNBA. That's how much I liked it. But
you know, I just don't throw those plays out for
the sake of throwing them out. But I had Asia
Wilson over twenty one and a half. That was just
an absolutely insane number. Dallas has nobody inside to contain.
Her total was twenty one and a half. She had
twenty points at the half, scored the twenty second point
fifteen seconds into the second half, easiest that we had.
It's about matchups and not season averages, and that's where
I've made the money.
Speaker 1: At Yeah, I agree. I love when the books use
the algorithm. They're going to be right ninety nine percent
of the time on those, but we only need that
one perfect one that is a little bit out of whack.
So I love it. It's really really important. And honestly, Marco,
with this new tax bill, I've run the numbers a
million times and it is the way to get them
is low volume and higher percentage on the bets. Like
I said, I've run the numbers ad nauseum. That's the
only way that I can come up with it. So
I love that strategy. Let's talk about let's go to baseball.
Let's talk a little baseball here. And we have a
lot of Tigers fans at Wager Talk and the wager
Talk Chat. So you got Tigers and Rangers. What's your
breakdown on this game today.
Speaker 2: Well, you look at this game and you got two
teams that went into the break opposite ends of the spectrum.
You know, Detroit was good all year, but the final
four games of the first half, they lost four games.
Texas won three out of four. Johnny mentioned it, and
it's something you know, I always talk about and agree
with in football, you know, the bye week. You don't
want to stop when you're winning, but whenever you're losing,
you need that push the reset button. And I expect
that's what's gonna happen with the Tigers tonight. I think
they're gonna come out tonight, first game after the break,
and I think they're gonna have a good performance. And
why shouldn't they. They got Resoulsen on them out Now.
You may not know him because when you're on a
pitching staff that has a scooble on it, you're gonna
get lost in a shuffle. But here's a guy that's
had eight straight starts where he's allowed three runs or less.
That in itself is good. Five of those eight starts
he's given up zero one run, okay, But most people
don't realize how good he is because he gets lost
in a shuffle behind. You know who's gonna be the
al You know, saw young Winner. I like him. Tonight
he's gonna be going against Corbin.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: I know last year we used to, you know, beat
the bat Corban like a randered mule. You know, everybody
would be lining up every time he pitched because he
didn't pitch. Well. He's pitching better this year, but he's
ultra consistent. You know what's gonna happen when he takes
the mom He's gonna give you five innings, but he's
gonna give up two or three runs and then he's
gonna turn it over, you know, to the bullpen. Well,
if he's gonna give up the three runs and Olsen's
gonna give up and most of these starts zero or one,
I know where I want to put my money at
UH in this particular game, and that's gonna be with Detroit.
And another thing with Corbin Now, this game opened up,
Detroit was a slight favorite. So this particular stat I'm
gonna give you doesn't work technically anymore, but you might
want to write it down for future reference, because Corbin
now is a slight favorite instead of an underdog. When
he's plus one hundred or more at home in his career,
his team is a god awful eighteen and forty eight.
But as I said, he's crossed over to a slight
favorite right now. So throw that out, but write it
down for future. But what still is in play? The
Texas Rangers at home versus right handers. They're only averaging
two point eight runs per game, all right if they
don't score against right handers. And I got Olsen that
pitches as well as he does. I'm going with Detroit
here for our first play the second half, let's take
the Tigers.
Speaker 1: You just made a lot of friends in our chat,
Marco just made a lot of friends. So awesome breakdown.
And yeah, this is interesting because the chat loves the Tigers.
You like the Tigers day and Jiohnny's fading the Tigers
for the second half of the season, so we'll see
how that goes. Marco, what do you have up at Waite?
You talk I got a big weekend coming up.
Speaker 2: Well, today is opening day at Delmar. If you like
to play some horses and you like to play some baseball,
today's day to pick me up. We've got some plays
from Delmar. Usually I'm there. This year, I'm not there
for opening Day, but I did handicap the card and
we've got some spot races that we are attacking today.
So you'll get all of those plays in the package.
You'll get my baseball for today. But you know why
buy today for twenty nine dollars. You mentioned the special
that's going on. That's the best deal going by August
for two ninety nine. You're gonna get all of July
and what's for free. And it's the dog days of summer.
But we're building a bank roll right now for football season.
You're gonna get spot plays the rest of the summer
and horses. There's a lot of big races coming up.
You're gonna get my WNBA plays that we talked about
forty two and eighteen and you're gonna get my baseball plays.
We had a profitable first half, Let's have a profitable
second half and lead right into football. Grab that two
ninety nine. That is the best deal going and you'll
pick up the rest of July for free.
Speaker 1: Marco D'Angelo. Awesome stuff. To me, the WNBA knowledge is
much more valuable than a single game breakdown. It's the strategies.
You put good systems and good strategies in place, that's
what's going to get you long term success. So thank
you very much, Marco. Thank you for sharing all that
good luck this weekend, and yeah, take advantage of that,
get all of Marco's place for August and get the
rest of July free.
Speaker 2: Have a great.
Speaker 1: Weekend, Marco, Marco DiAngelo. Everyone. Yeah, a couple questions about
unit size. Yeah, fortunately, so when we talk about percentages,
one percentage equals one unit. So me, personally, I try
and tell people what I think they should do, and
I have given up because I've learned that everyone does
it different. Me personally, I bet two percent of my bankroll.
I flat bet on everything. At the end of the month,
I reset my bankroll, determine what is one percent slash
one unit and then I bet two percent. I'm upping
that now to probably three percent, just because we are
so low volume. I mean, we only have six plays
for clients. It's the best of the best of the best.
So that's how I'm looking to attack it moving forward.
So that's what we mean when we say one percentage
or you know, one one unit, and I agree that
three percent is probably the max that that we should
be betting on those. Our percentages are a little bit
more of a confidence thing. So but I know there
are people out there that get plays and they play
way too much on the bankroll. So if you're watching
the show, I imagine you're probably one of the responsible ones.
So that's what I mean with one percentage and one unit.
All right, let's bring in Andrew Babichitis. We got to
talk UFC three eighteen. Andrew got to start with the
main event, Holloway and Pooria. We've been talking about this
one all week. My guess is that you guys are
gonna get flooded with Pooria money tomorrow, and my guesses
you've been taking mostly Holloway money. Am I correct on that?
Speaker 6: Yeah, you're definitely right. We open this one We've had
this one up for quite a while. We opened this
one at the beginning of May. We opened a flat
pick minus one ten both ways. Like you said, we
did get some early Holloway money. We're currently sitting minus
one thirty five on Max now. Yeah, and I wouldn't
be shocked if this thing comes back down a bit
if we get some Pourier money tomorrow. I know he
won the first two times they fought, but yeah, we're
looking to try to position ourselves to need Max. I
know a couple in the of the guys in the back,
really I think that's the side.
Speaker 7: I mean, how confident can you be in a pick?
Speaker 4: But yeah, they like the Max side. A couple of
the guys in the back.
Speaker 1: Any fight surprising you with what money's coming in. I've
been stunned at how much money's coming in on Kyler Phillips.
I'm wondering if you've guys have been taking more money
on Kyler Phillips.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I was actually gonna say, because you usually asked me
what my favorite play was, I would say.
Speaker 4: Kind of going against the sharp guys in that one.
Speaker 6: I'm thinking now that this price keeps getting a little
bit more fair on Venetius. We opened at minus one
ninety on that side, and we're all the way down
at minus one forty. We have got tagged a couple
times by some of our winning customers plus one sixty
plus one fifty on that Phillips side. But yeah, I
mean the price has been crashing all week. So the
closer this thing gets to a pick, the more I'm
kind of looking at this and circling this fight as
one of them that's more edible for sure.
Speaker 1: All Right, each week I give you a violence parlay.
There's a lot of them this week that I really like.
I'm actually just gonna go with a single one. I'm interested,
you've taken money on it. I've got the under on
Michael Johnson and Daniel Zelhuber. Michael Johnson's coming off with
two wins, not that impressive, and zell Huber's got this
really low long length that I think he can grab
a submission at a long distance, get a standing like
Eotine or dars. He's also got really good striking that
Michael Johnson I just don't think at his age is
going to react well too, and I don't think he's
gonna be get out of the way. I don't think
this fight goes a distance. It's minus one sixty five.
It's a touch juicy. I could throw a I could
throw like the Dolotov at minus seven hundred or the
span Dreskie at minus nine hundred. But really it's about
that Zelheber fight. Have you taken any money on the
under in that one?
Speaker 6: No, we're sitting two and a half minus one twenty
on the under, So yeah, real close to a pick
him on the two and a half line.
Speaker 7: But yeah, I really don't hate that angle.
Speaker 6: I really haven't done too much looking into that fight,
but your breakdown makes a lot of sense. I feel
like at this point of Michael Johnson's career he could
be finished, and there's always the chance he goes out
there and gets to finish, because you know he's gonna be,
you know, throwing hands like he always does.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so is uh you mentioned the Phillips fight. You're
on the other side. I'm with you one hundred. I'm
on the other side. I love Oliver and I'm not
that big of a fan of Kyler Phillips. Any other
fights that you personally.
Speaker 6: Like, Yeah, there's been some good sharp plays around the board.
I wouldn't say I really love the Vittoria side, but
we have been getting hit on Vittori kind of when
the price was over plus two hundred, we got hit
at plus two twenty five. And yeah, that price has
moved pretty aggressively. I know they already fought in the
lobby like a few days ago, but yeah, I still
think Brendon Allen's gonna get the cash there. But there
has been a big amount of.
Speaker 8: Action on Vittoria and that one, and then a big
sharp play on Jimmy Crue early in the week at
minus two fifty that is okay, now sitting at minus
three fifty.
Speaker 7: So those are a couple of the fights that I've
seen some good action on.
Speaker 1: All Right, we got a question there, you take anything
sharp on w NBA All Star anything. I mean, it's
you guys probably hated it when Caitlyn Clark got rolled
out of the three point contest. That probably took some
action away. But you guys seeing anything with WNBA.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I know the total has moved a ton.
Speaker 6: People are expecting a lot of points, so that's something
that you know, we're we saw an influx of money
coming in. We're trying to put up some unique props.
We're putting up who will score the first four point play?
Just a bunch of random stuff, but yeah, I'd say
the sharpest thing we saw was early money on the
on the over.
Speaker 1: Early money on the over all. Right, tell everyone where
we can find you at what you guys have going
on over there.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So we're gonna do some reduced juice on some
of these splits on the UFC fights tomorrow. I know
that Max Holloway fight is close to a pick, so
I'm sure we'll do a ten cent line on that one.
Speaker 4: So if you're looking to bet that fight, you're not gonna.
Speaker 6: Find a more fair price than betting it over here. Yeah,
And if you haven't followed me on X yet, please do.
I try to share as much info from behind the
counter that I'm able to give you guys, And like always,
I really enjoy coming on here and.
Speaker 4: Talking fights with you.
Speaker 6: The next two cards we're looking at are pretty stacked
bummed about Aaron Pico fight getting pulled, But these next
two fight cards I'm really looking forward to.
Speaker 1: Yeah, me too, me too. I'm loving it. So Andrew
Babikitas and he is a good following X I love,
I love the information you give out. You're you're, you're
one of the You're one of the ones I look
forward to when I see it come up on the timeline.
So thanks for coming on, Andrew, have fun and enjoy
UFC three eighteen, Thank you, Uh JD, and the in
chat says, I got the dog Michael Johnson and that
one perfect fight for MJ coming off two wins Zell,
who were simply a younger version of MJ. I'll go
ahead to head with you JD for a little gentleman's bet.
Come back Monday. One of us gets bragging rights. Uh,
you're gonna get way more bragging rights since you're taking
the dog, but respect the opinion on that one. So
join us on Monday and we'll see who gets that one.
So one more time, guys. The only plays that we
have up for sale are the UFC and PFL. I
just put them in one pack. So we got two
UFC plays, we got one PFL play. If we see
any props come out in PFL, those will be included.
When we put up that pack. There were just no
round props, so if they come out tomorrow or maybe
this evening, we'll be putting those in, but we are
still the number one MMA handicapper. PFL has been going
really good this year. UFC we stumbled in June, but
we got back to the winning ways last week. So
looking forward to adding more units. And again, these are
plays that I use as part of my investment portfolio.
These are plays we play with our own money. Any
plays that we put out, if you're invested, we're invested
as well. So take advantage of that. Over at wager
talk dot com. All right, Dan, let's talk to San
Francisco forty nine Ers. Big number here, ten and a half.
Big number. Feels like this is a team that everyone
wants to fade this year. And I gotta be honest,
I was kind of I was. I was looking at
fading them too, and then I started researching and I've
come around. What's your take just just at a distance
on the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I feel like this is going to be probably
like the pros versus Joe's kind of split far as
as far as the as far as like the forty
nine ers win total is concerned. I mean, let's be real,
there's not many Joes who are betting preseason win totals.
This is definitely more professional bets that people put down.
But the ten and a half man, it just feels
like a really good number. I mean, let's start with
what we saw from the forty nine ers last year,
you know what I mean? Like, I feel like it
couldn't be any worse for the forty nine ers as
it was last year. They had so many injuries, you know,
they had horrible scheduling spots. They were two and five
and one score games last year. That led to that
six and eleven record that they had when their season
total was eleven and a half. So what do you
see with the forty nine ers. It's bounced back time
for them and Andy they'll be poised to have a
really great potential for having a bounce back because they
have one of the easiest schedules in the league for
a team who outside of last season and the hangover
season that they had after they lost the Super Bowl,
they've been an elite Super Bowl contender pretty much for
the nine years that Shanahan has been there, So again,
one of the easiest schedules in the league. Not only that, Andy,
they also sit top five top three in the rest
differential as well, so, really nice schedule, really nice scheduling spots.
But for me, we're going back to when we've talked
about these teams are really going to go how the
quarterback goes. And it's not so much that I think
this team is going to go how Purdy goes. It's
just the question of does Purdy be able? Is he
going to be able to live up to the hype
of the contract that he just got, right, a massive contract.
They had a really good free agency, I would argue
because they got rid of a lot of the huge
contracts that they had bogging them down. Basically let all
of their guys walk. I think Deebo, Samuel Levin, that's
a net nothing. They addressed a lot of their needs
in the draft because they drafted for position, and a
lot of them were defensive. And let's not forget that
Robert sala is coming back back to town and the
only reason that he was a head coaching candidate was
what in absolute stud he is as a defensive coordinator.
I don't think he really meshed well as a head coach.
Some of these guys who are coordinators, they're not just
cut out to be head coaches, but as a defensive coordinator.
Sala's top two in the league right, and he's got
a lot of talent behind them. For me, though, Man
Christian McCaffrey, do we know if he comes back to form,
We don't know. How does perty look with basically a
whole new look wide receiver corps. The ten and a
half just feels right. I lean ever so slightly to
the under Andy, simply because the market and the sharps
they love the over for this team, and I just
don't know if I'm as in love as this team
heading into the season as the market maybe quite is
with all those question marks surrounding them, though they do
seem poised that everything's lined up for them to have
that bounce back for sure.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so they lose green Law, they lost Fonga, but
they got they already got his replacement. So again when
you say, you know net nothing, they lost Deebo, but
you know Piersoll was coming off the we'll call it
an injury that he got got shot. Yeah, so a
bit of an injury. Expect him to take a big
leap forward. Juwan Jennings and now he wants a new contract,
but I imagine they'll get that worked out. I you
coming off ACL. I was stunned. PFF had their offense
ranked fourth. Last year's team won six games, fifteenth in defense,
tenth and special teams. So Pro Football Focus has him
ranked pretty high. Twelfth ranked offensive line going into the
season twenty first defensive line is a little bit concerning.
And then I go to the schedule. I said this
to the chat. It looks like they made it themselves.
It looks like the league really here. Who do you
want to play? This is the schedule at Seahawks at Saints, Cardinals,
Jags at Rams, at Bucks, Falcons at Texans at Giants,
Rams at Cardinals, Panthers at Brown's, Titans at Colt Bears, Seahawks.
What is this schedule? This is this is the their
hardest game. I think might be at Bucks that legit
might be the toughest game on paper because of that schedule.
I can't believe I'm just taken over on a ten
and a half total on a team that the one
six makes sense, But this schedule is ridiculous. If Perty
stays healthy and some of these other guys stay healthy,
I just I'm going the over. If I get burned
on a party, injury or McCaffrey's not an or something
goes wrong. But I'm with you about Sala. He's fantastic
on defense. And this schedule to me is everything. This
is one of the craziest schedules. Yeah, I've seen, so
I'm gonna.
Speaker 2: Lea that's why.
Speaker 5: And that's why Andy for me, like on paper, I
want to do an under, but on paper you have
to also factor in the schedule and the schedule, I mean,
this is the easiest schedule in the NFL. I mean,
and and and say. Their toughest games will all be
games that are in the division. And really, when you're
asking of what they're gonna do in the division, the
two toughest games are gonna be when they have to
face off against the Rams. So so you know that
that that for me, you know, if I had to
pick that, ten and a half just fit like I
could see ten wins. So that's why I lean towards
that under. But you know, again, the market disagrees with me,
and I completely agree with you this The schedule is
the the make or break point because you could also
start off poorly as the forty nine ers like sometimes
they do.
Speaker 2: But Kyle Shanahan after the bye week.
Speaker 1: The rec speaks for itself.
Speaker 5: I don't have the numbers in front of you, but
after the bye week Shanahan coach teams go on absolute
tears and the schedule sets up, so you could be
feeling like you're unders looking really good, and then that
backap of the schedule just blows it up in your
face because they could go they could go on a
complete win out streets head into the playoffs. Is the
hottest team in the NFL. That's that's a completely potential
thing to happen.
Speaker 1: All right, So you're gonna you're gonna slightly lean under
certainly not a not a play. I'm not betting this one,
but just for purposes of the video week.
Speaker 2: All right, we're head to head again.
Speaker 5: Andy, Now all things we've been agreeing way too much,
so now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're head to head again. Yes, absolutely, all right, guys,
it's been a great week for shows. We made it
through one of the most boring weeks of the sports
betting year. But we're ready to get to cash here
on the weekend. Golf players are looking fantastic, so I'm
looking at adding a few units and join me on
my UFC and PFL pack, and also if you want
to get all access, there's a couple of lacrosse plays
that are up a really nice future. That's plus three fifty,
so join us on those in any places we have
for the week and will be included. Take advantage of
that August special you get August for two ninety nine.
Every day included in July is free, so take advantage
of that. Your favorite handicapper if you want to join
me and all my plays, take advantage of that. So
thanks very much for joining us. Guys, have a great weekend,
good luck on your bets. Let's do it again Monday.
Hopefully our our bank roll is a little bit bigger
than they are today. Good luck on your bets and
take care