Speaker 1: What is up Fellasko's I am Dan Valley coming at
you with the one, the only, My certified fantabulous co
is mister Grant Hughes. We did Eastern Conference record projection
slash over unders. I guess that means it's time to
do the Western Conference. Before we get started, go join
our over under competition. You could do that by joining
our discord the links of the podcast and YouTube description,
or just fill out the Google document that will be
linked in the YouTube and podcast description as well. We
have like a tenth or like the submissions that we
did last year, Grant, So the people should go rush
so that they can win any any one of our
merch items as well as appearing on the podcast if
they do win. So go join the over under competition
see if you can beat Grant and I. And finally,
if you haven't, go check out the look Ahead series.
We are twenty nine teams are up. The Raptors will
be going live on Tuesday, which is opening night, but
they don't play, so it's all good. Now we get
to the meet and Pat todotatoes the podcast. Grant, how
the heck are you doing?
Speaker 2: I'm feeling great. I think are my chance to win
over unders this year, although we'll probably just tie since
we have so many of the same looking good if
we don't get more submissions. Also, like, that's such a
call to action if you your odds are great of
winning right now, if you make if you just get
your submissions in in a hurry, you've got I don't
know by the time this goes up a couple more
days to get it done. Any notes about how you
approach these things that we didn't really get into last year.
Are you filling out the records before looking at the
over under? Yeah, I definitely. I don't want to know
the over unders ahead of time because then I feel
like it puts me in too narrow over range and
and you know you, I think the results are still
like we skew pretty like in the East. I think
we're mostly very close to the actual over unders, which
is which is fine, but I, you know, balancing the
wins and losses. I think we talked about this for
the East too. You get in the business of of
you need a win or two here for this team
because it just feels too low or too high and
you have to pull it from another team. So I again,
I really do want a toy with trying next season
not balancing wins and losses, because I mean, first of all,
we'll probably be less accurate and that'll be more fun
for everyone participating to beat us. But also I just
think you get like a truer sense of what you
actually think about a specific team if you're not also
balancing the idea of like, well, I can't give this
team fifty five wins because that means someone else has
twenty six. And that's just there's no way that's you
know what I mean, Like, I feel like there's a
way to do this where you could have a truer
reflection of how good you think each team is. But
it's not what we did this year.
Speaker 1: No, it is not. And let's start. We're gonna go
in alphabetical order. We begin with the Dallas Mavericks. They
have an over under a forty and a half grant.
How you feel about that one?
Speaker 2: Again? Pretty close, or I guess I should stay off
the bat. Pretty close. It's it's really just a question
of does overall talent, of which Dallas has a lot,
does that win you more games than not? If the
talent doesn't fit together very well? Which is just to
highlight what you know. Issue number one for Dallas is
lots of bigs and forwards, not a lot of ball handlers,
almost no guards. What is not a lot of spacing obviously,
which is what you'd expect with so few guards. What's
that look like?
Speaker 1: To me?
Speaker 2: It looks like an over, but not by a lot.
Speaker 1: So you had them at forty two and forty, I
have them at forty and forty two. It feels like
a slight under to me. They just the defense could
be nasty, and I feel like that's a recipe and
win a bunch of regular season games. They should dominate
the glass. But I can't get past the offense of
it all. I think Cooper Flag is going to be great,
but you're putting him in a situation where they'll be
negative spacing at least until Kyrie comes back. And when
does Kyrie come back? How many games does Anthony Davis miss?
This team is so tough to figure out. I almost
feel like me putting them at forty is wrong because
it feels like one of those classic low floor, higher
ceiling things, and there'll be no in between to where, oh,
they might win twenty eight or they just might win
fifty or something on the back of a defense of
their defense.
Speaker 2: See, I think I kind of think about them differently
because because I am pretty confident the defense will be
good just that amount of size and length. Then you know,
it's not like sure like Gafford, I guess you'd say,
and maybe Davis now, but are more like conventional defensive centers.
Davis is probably still okay switching, but you know, the
likes of Flag and PJ. Washington and Naji Marshall and
these guys can move. So I think the defense should.
I think there's a high floor. Like it's hard for
me to imagine that twenty eight win figure unless Davis misses,
you know, all but twenty five games or something that
and for sure, like from that perspective, there is a
lower floor. But I, as I went through a lot
of these in both conferences, I tended to kind of
if you have a good defense, I like you for
you know, around five hundred, just as a as a
starting point.
Speaker 1: You know, it's tough for me to imagine. Though. The
other thing that I couldn't square away was them being
over five hundred in the Western Conference when I was
going through the process where it's your best offensive playmaker.
Right now, the person that you're most likely to run
the offense through is either D'Angelo Russell or Cooper Flag
And I just don't know what that looks like relative
to the West, But to your point, and I even
kind of mentioned it to undermine my own point, if
you're going to have a feisty defense, it does give
you a higher floor. At least during the regular season.
Speaker 2: You can beat a lot of bad teams. I think
if you just shut them down and you only need
to need to score one hundred and five points or
you know what I mean, I could see that being
the recipe for a lot of wins for them. I mean,
obviously not a lot forty two, but it seems like,
at least consensus wise, they're not an upper class Western
Conference team. Like playing feels about right, and like probably
on the lower end of that group.
Speaker 1: You want to take us through to Denver Nuggets.
Speaker 2: Denver Nuggets come in at fifty four and a half wins. Obviously,
before I throw it to you to kind of lead
us off, you've added Yonas Valanciunis, You've swapped out MPJ
for Cam Johnson, You've brought back Bruce Brown, You've got
Tim Hardaway junior who might hit some shots for you.
So the bench is the thing that people are focusing
on as a pretty significant improvement. Maybe you get some
growth from some of the younger guys, but like, you
don't need Peyton Watson and the Strawthers and Pickets and
whoever else is of the world to fill those roles.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 2: So that's a pretty high over under. That's got to
be what Second in the West probably is. I don't
have them in front of me. How do you feel
about that? How do you feel about that number?
Speaker 1: I feel pretty it's high. So I don't think I
could look at this and say this is going to
be one of my best bets. But they are deeper.
I probably disagree that it feels like they need Jaln
Pickett to do something, or Drulian Strawther to not pop
but do more as a ball handle, or maybe even
Peyton Watson because I'm not super high on the outwor
as high on the addition of Bruce Brown. I think
he gives them capable depth. But what is the secondary
point guard situation on this team? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: Is it him as a John Pickett. They've put the
ball in Peyton Watson's hands more during the preseason, which
I find interesting the fact that they're deeper. Adam Otd
has pointed this out on the look Ahead that he
thinks that Joki is going to have to work less
for his shots and also not take as many as them.
And the other thing that's been interesting too. We know
that everyone loves what Cam Johnson can do away from
the ball, but defensively, they are going to try different things,
and in the preseason we kind of saw a glimpse
of it. I saw the Clippers game. You saw them
try a lot of different stuff where they're varying a
lot of the levels that Joki is going to be at,
their playing some zone, and I'm just wondering if by
virtue of functional diversification on defense, they're just more equipped
to rattle off wins in the regular season than ever,
because I don't know how many Jokic teams have even
cleared fifty five during the regular season. Has it been
more than one?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure. I think there's at least been
one that might have been the title team. I just think, like,
do you get the feeling that so they're over unders
fifty four and a half. We can put the numbers up.
I'm predicting them to win fifty four, so it's an
under I guess for me, which I don't feel like.
You've got them at fifty five, so you get to
say over. I mean, those are both high KI totals.
Speaker 1: And they've only hit fifty five or more. They've only
hit fifty three or more once during the like the
Jokic year. Oh no, they had fifty four to this,
So they've only hit fifty five or more once during
the Jokic years, and so there is a level of risk.
But if you think that Jokic gets to play a
little bit less or the minutes without him just aren't
as terrible because you can run some things through valance uness,
It's like, I don't know, it's it's it's not my
best bet, but I feel really good about this team.
Speaker 2: I get it, Like I think that was the thing
I was gonna ask is do you think this is
a situation of they can kind of win within a
certain range, like let's say up to fifty nine or sixty,
and at a low low end forty eight, they can
kind of do you think they can sort of go
anywhere they want to within that range based on like
how they gain minutes, how they rest guys, or is
it like, no, they're gonna try as hard as they
can and fifty five is where it stops. Because to me,
it feels more like they it's kind of up to
them within that range, Like they really could go high
fifties if that's a priority for them. I just don't
know if it will be.
Speaker 1: I think they could get to sixty if they enjoyed
just close to picture perfect health. And I think if
if Yokic qualifies for which there's no reason to think
he would, I'm just using that as the baseline. If
he qualifies for an award, he's played in sixty five
plus games, they're just a fifty something win team if
you get better availability from him. I don't like Aaron
Gordon leg stuff is always just basically playing on one leg.
By the end of that series against Oklahoma City, Cam
Johnson has missed time here and there. There's noise when
you look at the teams that he's played for. Of course,
that's what gives me positive. Of course, the I think
they're deep. I just don't know that you look and say, Okay,
they're dependably deep, because I think you would have to
look at their reserves and say, oh, David Adaman is
gonna maybe have to futz and fiddle with his bench
rotations on a night to night basis. Aside from I
think you can count on Jonas valentiwnis and you know
what you're gonna get from him for the most part
night in a night out. That certainty might end there.
Speaker 2: Right, And I think you can you can say that
this is a much better bench than Denver has had,
certainly a much better backup center than they've had in
the Jokic era. But that's not the same thing as
saying the bench is a strength. It's just not as
terrible as it has been. So the reason I asked
that is, I do think like between Murray is another
one that had you know, how many games are you
going to get out of him? So with Johnson, Murray
and Gordon all guys that probably should be rested and managed.
That's that's part of my reasoning for the under I
just think if they wanted to this, they could blow
this number away. I think it just I think they're
gonna be.
Speaker 1: Careful, so insummation, You're just a hater.
Speaker 2: I'm a coward.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Golden State Warriors forty six and a half
the number itself. Maybe I was just looking at what
the Clippers and the Lakers. God, I thought it was
gonna be a little bit higher than this. What about you?
Speaker 2: I would have thought so too, because what do they
win last year? Like, weren't they forty eight last season?
And that's they were like five under five hundred when
they acquired Jimmy Butler. So it's hard for me to
to go lower than last season just because they the
version of the team that closed the season was way
better than a forty eight win team. So I think
you skew up from there probably right, Like that's to me,
and that they're a public team too, like there are
a lot of Warriors fans, not to the Lakers extent,
where just the Lakers numbers are always inflated just to
because people will go over on them because they're optimistic,
and there are a lot of fans like the Warriors
are kind of that same way. So I have a
hard time. I mean, there's an obvious answer right for
why there might be skepticism about this team and it's.
Speaker 1: Just age Santos.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, nobody loves in Gi Santos. I have the
thought today that if you could give Jonathan kuminga Gee
Santos's motor, you would have a fifteen time All Star.
That's got nothing to do with this discussion, and I
just wanted to share.
Speaker 1: That this is the type this is the type of
stuff you think about during your downtime.
Speaker 2: I forgive it, right, Yeah, what do you think. I mean,
forty six and a half is low. We're giving it away, but.
Speaker 1: I think yeah, I mean we both went over here.
I was actually higher on them than you were. I
have them at fifty and thirty two. You have them
at forty nine and thirty. The health and the age thing,
we know that as soon as if Steph even shows
signs of just looks tired on one night, Steve Kerr
is gonna sit him out the next game. That's fine.
They're better built to navigate that than they have been
since the Kevin Durant era. At the very least, and
the minutes that Jimmy Butler played during the regular season
without Steph, they went really well on the defensive end.
I think if you bake in some improvement from a
Brandon Pajemski, maybe Moses Moody getting a little better with
more playing time, just the fact that their offense has
so much spacing now in the front core with Al
Horford and Quinton Post. I think, Look, you can very
easily talk me into under fifty wins, but this team
I don't like anything less than forty eight forty nine.
I know I'm only at fifty. I'm almost kicking that
in as their floor or closer to their floor. But
unless you think that Steph just isn't gonna play most
of the year, which is a distinct possibility, I just
don't know that you can predict it. I forty six
and a half feel so low.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is another team that, like the defense
will be very good. It's not going to be best
in the league. It's not Thunder, it's probably not Rockets level,
but top ten. I think for sure they were the
one of the best full stop after Butler showed up,
So that sets the floor pretty high, I guess, Like,
I mean, I get it right. Like we had the
discussion on the look ahead of how many games are
the four old guys going to play together where they're
all four in the lineup and not managed in any way.
If it's half the season, that feels like a win.
If it's if it's forty one, pretty good, right, maybe
all maybe you get three of the four in fifty
five or sixty. I think they should be favorites in
almost all those games, right, like you know, with some exceptions,
So the ceiling like this again, I said it on
the look ahead too, like I think this team has
the capability to win sixty if everybody magically stays healthy
and there's no age related decline. They're and let's not
for get like there's a kaminga trade out there that
will surely be for short term like shorter term help.
Speaker 1: So do you think that works against repressing their win
total though, because people might be factoring in could this
go poorly and he's either actively hurting the encore product
or the situation is just so toxic that it infests
the rest of the team.
Speaker 2: Maybe that's part of the calculus in my opinion. If
he's not playing well, he just won't play and like
you know, and he can be as upset as he wants,
you're not gonna like you could try to rock the boat.
But with these four veteran guys like and just the
culture and all the like. Kaminga can't like upend anything
by being pissed off because he's kind of been unhappy forever.
So what's the difference if it goes? If that's if
that's your reason for going for setting it at forty
six and a half, I'm not compelled by that.
Speaker 1: The other proposal for me would be, is it because
it's not just the stars the main players are old,
it's oh, the secondary players deal with all this health stuff. Yeah,
surgeries the off season. Melton isn't gonna start season healthy.
GP two always dealing with something.
Speaker 2: And Moody has got a calf thing that he may
not be ready for opening night, so that start there.
Jimmy Butler sprained his ankle and practice the other day,
so it's kind of like if you're if you're pessimistic,
you can start. You can kind of start pointing already.
It's a see like this, this is what we're dealing with.
I still think they're just they have enough depth and
there's enough real NBA players on here to kind of
to be competitive every night, even when you don't have
all of the vets available who we got next. We
got Houston next, minus Fred van Vliet. This is a
fifty two and a half over under number. I mean, again,
Dan like, it is very high. I don't know how
much I would like to know what it came down from.
I imagine it was closer to fifty four before the
van Fleet news. I kind of got out in front
of it, thinking this team has so much talent and
size and defense that I'm not I don't think the
van Fleet injury crushes them as much as some might say.
I might amend that to focus it more on the
regular season, which is where your depth in your size
and your defense like matters more night tonight. As a
postseason threat, probably it does hurt them more than I
was sort of giving it credit for. But fifty two
and a half still a pretty big number when you
lost the starting point guard, and he was someone that
kind of did some stuff you're not sure you can
get from anybody that's going to replace him. So yeah,
I agree, it's high. I why do you think it
stayed so high if Van Fleet is so important?
Speaker 1: I guess because they're they run so deep in NBA
play like capable NBA players, and you still add Durant
to where if you say Durant is going to take
he's not going to get the Fred Van Fleet touches,
which is actually part of the problem. It's so you're
replacing Jalen Green with Kevin Durant basically, which is just
an insane upgrade, and then Am and Thompson getting better.
They're huge and as you said when we were talking
about the Mavericks, defenses are gonna if you have a
top tier defense, is going to ensure you beat a
lot of the bad teams. So I do recognize that
it gives them a high floor. But if you're clearing,
if you're getting a fifty three or more, what has
happened is Kevin Durant played in seventy something games. Is
Amen Thompson your second best offensive player? All of a sudden,
are we getting Alprin Shangun making all NBA, Which, by
the way, none of those things are close to impossible
right on their face, but it feels like, just because
the offense is going to be such a tough slog
that you would need almost two of those three developments
to happen, or maybe you throw in o Jabari Smith
Junior or the handles better, he's attacking off closeouts and drives.
I just read Shepherd. I'm not gonna mention him. Maybe
he just absolutely goes off. I think Fred van Fleet
was just so important to what they needed to do
on offense as someone who could didn't need to be
on the ball, but who defense is respected on and
away from it. And they found ways to score or
for Ahmed Thompson to be effective within him limitations and
I won't look the passing his ability to work with
the ball in his hands too, But I just can't
who is their best creator? Now? It's between shanng Gun
and Thompson, right.
Speaker 2: Yeah, less unless Shepherd really pops. But yeah, in terms
of if youver betting, it's those two guys. So we
can put the numbers up. I'm going under, but it's
fifty two for me and you've got him at fifty
and thirty two. I just think I think what you
said is right, Like they can get over. You can
imagine we're looking back at this and they've won fifty
six or whatever, and you could put together several scenarios
to explain that it could be Thompson becomes an All
NBA caliber player at least an All star shng Gun
small step forward. He's already been an All Star Smith.
It gets better Easan stays healthier and plays more, and
the defense is even better. They really do have great
success with just super over size double big plus Jabari
Smith lineups and the defense is the best in the
league right because Oklahoma City takes its foot off the
gas or whatever, Like there's Shepherd pops, Like Durant has
a fifty forty ninety, which wouldn't be that weird, but like,
there's just ways for them to beat this number. I
just so, and I'm not that far below the total anyway,
So I'm just I'm just banking on like not all
of those things happening and that, and I'm admitting a
little bit that Van Fleet's absence is gonna hurt.
Speaker 1: Which is the thing that's really hard to reconcile is
giving them fewer wins after they added Kevin Durant, right,
And I don't and I don't know how to describe it,
but I think there's a chance they were twelve in
overall offense last year. I think there's a chance that
they acquired Kevin Durant and that their offense could actually drop.
Maybe they're gonna beat maybe they will be able to
clean up the offensive glass so much. But I'm looking
at this team now and saying, if you go duel
Big a lot and now you have KD, I don't
know how much time going to spend in transition. Probably
still a lot, because Aman Thompson is a human hurricane.
But if that even comes down a little bit and
your first chance offense is still just sort of shake.
I mean, Kevin Durant's a great first chance offensive option,
so maybe that's what boost them. But if you were
asking me to pinpoint where they're going to rank offensively,
or if you even just said will they be better
on offense than they were last year, I'm not willing
to bet on that.
Speaker 2: No, And if they are, it would have to be
the offensive rebounding recipe, because like if you said, put
your five best rockets on the floor, there might be
one guy the defenses are afraid of beating you for
eat right right, just him. But even Durant, like has
the volume from three for him has never been super high.
I think Jabari Smith Junior has immense value because I
think you can shoot it, But like those are the two,
like Thompson would have to make like the leap of
all leaps to be a threat to be guarded seriously
as a three point shooter. Same for Shingoon. Whoever else
you want to out there is going to be someone
that defenses can sag off of. So I think I
think they could be a team that kind of loses
the math game. We probably should have mentioned this for
Denver too, because that's been a criticism of Nuggets for
a long time. Is just not in a volume from three.
The Rockets I think will struggle to you know, the
Rockets aren't gonna win a bunch of games like Boston
did last year because they shot sixty threes and they
made twenty two of them, and that's just it's gonna
get it done a lot of nights.
Speaker 1: No, that's rough too, because you just made me think.
So Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks and Fred van Fleet were
they're three leaders in three point makes all one. Yeah,
and like you said, Kevin Durant, that's not he can
shoot threes, but he's not going to come in and
you have Steph Curry like volume on it.
Speaker 2: No, I mean yeah, So that that's the offense is
going to be the.
Speaker 1: Volume on it. Yeah, no, which is isn't that don't
you feel bizarre saying that I know we're looking at
the context of the roster, but don't you just feel
bizarre saying that after they acquired Kevin Durant it could.
Speaker 2: Be a pretty classic overthink by both of us, like adding,
Kevin Durant should just meet Your offense is better even
if you lose Van Fleet. But we'll see.
Speaker 1: I'm with you. We're onto the Los Angeles Clippers forty
seven and a half. I was torn between thinking that
this is a little too low because I'm pretty preseason
pilled and the depth on this team is just absolutely absurd.
But as I started putting together, I had to pull
wins away from them to make some of the stuff work.
I finished short on wins at one point, and then
you go a little bit over. You have to adjust.
This team is honestly forty seven. Doesn't it feel like
that is closer to their floor. My record's not going
to reflect that that I gave. But this is a
fairly easy over for me because I don't think that
there's a single player on this roster they can't afford
to lose for fifteen plus games.
Speaker 2: I agree with that, I think so this was not
an easy one for me. I actually initially when I
did my first run through, had him at forty seven
and I moved to forty eight. So yay for me.
I'm over on the Clippers and the depth is this
real strength here? Obviously? Oh look at us pair of
forty eight win seasons. The depth is a huge strength, right.
Like I was just thinking the other day, if you
just if if this Warrior starting five Chris Paul Bogdan Bogdanovich,
Derek Jones Junior who might start, but just go with it,
Nick Batoom, Brook Lopez. That's five guys that can shoot.
There's good defenders there, there's like pick and roll playmakers,
there's kind of everything. And that's your bench, unless it's
callings coming off the bench instead of Jones Junior, whatever,
Chris Dunno's it's like a five hundred team, it feels like, right,
so they go eleven deep if you throw Chris dunn
in there, who I think absolutely should get some minutes. Still,
the issue for me is, while I agree with you
that you can afford to lose any one of these guys,
there's like a there is a somewhat plausible scenario where
like Harden slips from after like kind of a break
like a late career renaissance last year, and or misses
more time, Kawhi misses more time easy Price that in
Beal is cooked, and or miss his time. Brook Lopez
is done because he's in his late thirt like, there's
you could get to like, oh, actually, there's like five
or six guys that are either going to miss a
ton of time or are past, like way past their
primes to the point of like they're not even starting
caliber players anymore. That's unlikely, but that's how I think.
That's part of the reason I think this number is
where it is is because while they can lose one,
I don't think anyone believes they're just gonna lose one.
I think there's gonna be multiple guys that you could
foreseeably say oh this, oh boy, it happened fast, it
came quick, didn't like the cliff's edge was there, and
then he was over it. So I think that justifies
the number. And that's why I had a hard time going.
I couldn't go way over. I couldn't get over fifty.
Just with the downside.
Speaker 1: And you say all that, and I would probably agree
that that's why the number of lands where it does.
And yet I'm mad that I only gave them forty
eight wins.
Speaker 2: Right, This is just because case if you had to
pull from somebody, I fell into that trap.
Speaker 1: I'm more annoyed because I didn't have to pull this time.
Remember we were talking on the East. I actually, yeah,
I'm probably pessimistic as hell this year and so, but
I'm looking at this team in the more I think
about it, I'm going over so I don't feel the
need to go back and change it the fuck up
my math. But yeah, I'm almost going to be kind
of surprised if they don't hit the fifty win mark
that you would have to tell me that they weren't
trying to get there. I'm just you went through the
names on their roster and it's Brook Lopez has looked
fantastic in preseason, Chris Paul's looks fantastic. This team is
just they have a starting lineup coming off their bench
and they can I think if there was one concern
aside from the health. For me, I am curious to
see what the defense will ultimately look like. I think
having Derek Jones Junior in the starting lineup is really
smart because contrary to what has been out there, I
don't remember a season where Bradley Beal was an elite defender,
especially at the point of attack. So but I don't
this team is. So I'll say this, I actually think
there are gonna be two teams this year like there
were last year that have a top five offense and defense,
the Thunder or one, like that's the team your pencil
in there. I think the Clippers have the best chance
at being the second one. Who else are you choosing
to have that honor?
Speaker 2: I mean, Golden State went healthy, but that's that's a
big win.
Speaker 1: Yeah you're saying that about the Clippers, though too.
Speaker 2: Could Cleveland do it? Like if if you believe the
offense will be top five, I think full stop and
then is mobilely a step better? And and like I
don't know that that's a possibility, but yeah, it's a
short list for sure, And the Clippers have the if
the Clippers are healthy and they don't suffer like major
healthy for them. So fifty games from Kawhi, you know,
sixty five from Harden and they don't have major dropoffs
from all those guys like yeah, easy, easy into the fifties,
like no problem.
Speaker 1: We're on to the Los Angeles Lakers where they at grant.
Speaker 2: They're at forty eight and a half, which, as I
mentioned earlier, it is insane to have them with a
higher over under than the Clippers and Golden State, but
that's just what happens with Laker over unders. They get inflated.
Are you concerned by the fact that Lebron James might
play twenty five games this year as he manages Sciatica
and they only care about the playoffs?
Speaker 1: Do you know? My first instinct was when I heard that,
I was really genuinely bummed out. I saw the jokes
that were being made and kind of, well, what are
you supposed to expect, Like he's going to his age
forty one season, And we had this conversation. I don't
know what podcast we were recording, but we recognize that
we're just getting to the end of Lebron and as
much as some people can stand him and might think
he does things that are performative or annoying, this sucks,
Like I don't want to be reminded. I had to come,
but I don't want to be reminded of how old
he's getting or how close to the end that we are.
I'm hoping everything I've read and watch says that it's
a complicated injury to come back from. I just lean
Luca GLP one, Luca, Okay, we throw him in here,
and he could carry a team to what I guess,
forty eight wins on his own.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I don't know. If you're saying Lebron's gonna miss significant time,
and then they're probably it's not even just missing time,
but so he'll come back. They'll probably bring him along slowly.
Maybe there's a minutes limit. Is he not playing it
back to backs this year? I just don't that's a
really big He's the second most important player on your team,
and if he's not, that's catastrophic.
Speaker 2: Right right. And so a couple of other things to
factor in here too. One, when Kevin Pelton did his projections,
the Lakers had four guys that graded out as above
replacement level, and the Lakers were one of the other
teams that had that. Few were like Brooklyn, Washington, Utah,
like or you know, Charlotte, and that was including Lebron.
So now it's basically I assume it's Luca and Reeves
and I don't know Ayton or ja Hacha Mura maybe
so like super top Heavy, I think that's a totally
fair criticism. I'm still of the mind that like, if
you have Luca and it's it looks like he's gonna
be closer to like the best version of his Dallas self,
it's really hard for you to not win forty five,
forty six, forty seven. But how could do you think
this defense is gonna be? Because remember last year there
was like a stretch where how is JJ Reddick doing this?
And it was like and they did the weird thing
against Jokic where they had like a helper come from
somewhere different was so like schematically, I do think there
there's some evidence that Reddick can get the most out
of the personnel he's got, at least for stretches. They
play the math game, they you know, they limit the
right kinds of shots all that stuff. But like this
de like unless Jared Vanderbilt can be played like thirty
minutes a night like this, and Marcus smart is, I
was how far back to you I was gonna go
like twenty eighteen a long ways back, like this defense
personnel wise, and like maybe that's a playoff problem because
you know that's when you'll target Reeves a lot or
Luca or put Ayton in a bunch of picking rolls.
But I just personnel wise, this defense has no business
being top half of the league. So the offense has
to be great for them to beat this over under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there's DeAndre Ayton or the idea of him
a few years ago is doing a lot of heavy
lifting when it comes to it, because look at how
he's left Phoenix in Portland. It was like these are
teams that were just fine letting him go.
Speaker 2: I paid him to leave, like they paid him.
Speaker 1: That's and it doesn't seem like it was as bad
as people were painting behind the scenes. But like he
wasn't the driving force necessarily of their defensive success. And
he hasn't been that basically since the Suns made the finals,
which was around a half decade ago. At this point,
Marcus mart as you already mentioned, they're not. Are they
running him through a time machine? So I get, like,
I just the theory of looking Look, Jake Lavia, versatile
on the defensive end, can be moved around a little bit.
But I think you look at the Lakers's top three
players in Reeves, Lebron and Luca, and even if you
want to say top four, if you're including RUI, are
they all defensive liabilities or at least at their best
defensively average when they're at their absolute peak. That just
feels like a huge problem.
Speaker 2: Right, And so for those reasons, I am out on
the over forty seven wins I predict, you predict forty eight.
I think we're both just acknowledging a healthy Luca, your
team will be good. But forty nine wins is just
too many for the talent level on this team, and
also no extension for Lebron kept some of the powder dry.
Dorian Finney Smith leaves, doesn't it feel like this is
a Lakers season that you know we're just in transition?
Like that? It's just Luca, go do what you want,
win a scoring title, contend for MVP if you can,
and we'll we'll, we'll really get after it in twenty
six twenty seven.
Speaker 1: I I that is feels like an accurate read. I
was going to ask you how many games would Lebron
need to play in for you to go comfortable hitting
forty nine or fifty wins for this team, and even
is there even a number that would make you feel
comfortable doing it?
Speaker 2: Well, I think too the numb The number I'd be
more concerned with is Luca's games played, probably like can
he get you seventy and then from there Lebron? If
Lebron gives you fifty five sixty, then then maybe that
makes me feel better. But it is just very much
Luca needs to be peak Dallas Luca, I think to
hit this over and so far, so good, But but
I just I don't know. You could argue that this team,
even with Lebron, is less talented than some of those
Dallas teams. I mean, he made the finals, like that's
so that's not doesn't feel like a stretch.
Speaker 1: The other thing too, we mentioned DeAndre Eaton. There's not
a lot happening center after him. By the way, it's
not as if they fit even if they got a
really good version of DeAndre eight. And there's Maxi Kleiba,
we know he can't stay healthy. The theory of Maxi
Kleba's a lot of fun.
Speaker 2: Love that.
Speaker 1: Hell, yeah, Jackson Hayes again not an NBA center well, hey,
look co he keeps getting contracts grant, So I agree
to disagree this is It feels weird though, because if
we I really expect this to be like a Luka
Doncic revenge campaign. And so I just I don't know,
and I am shocked to echo your point at the
top of this that they're over under was. I know
they're a public team, but to just be higher than
the Clippers is bizarre to me.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: With that, we move on to the Memphis Grizzlies. They
are at thirty nine and a half, even though they
may have the longest average injury port on a night
to night basis by season's end. This was a hard one. Shocker.
I'm zero for six of my last Grizzlies picks. This
was a hard one for me.
Speaker 2: I should make you say your number first so I
can just do the opposite and bank this win.
Speaker 1: Let's do it then, So this is not gonna surprise
Grizzlies fan. This should be great news for Grizzlies fans,
but I am going under. I have them at thirty
eight and forty four. Look, I think that there might
be a higher baseline for this team than even I'm
crediting when they're fully healthy. How many games are they
going to be fully healthy for the like the big
man rotation is gutted essentially to start this season. Uh,
John Morant hurt already and he's always okay, he's telling
he's saying, people are overreacting to the injury. Buddy, look
at the number of games you've been available.
Speaker 2: Oh we got it, Buddying.
Speaker 1: It's genuine concern. Like there's if John Rant gets hurt,
that is genuinely concerning. And I think they have a
lot of good secondary offensive a TD, Jerome Scotti, Pippen Junior.
Those are two guys that definitely help you in John
Morant's absence. They also help just extend your depth. Kntavius
called well Pope. If he shoots a little bit better,
that's a guy who's gonna help you on defense. We
love Jalen Wells Aside from the injuries, though, they have
a lot of question marks that almost need to contribute
a ton. And the one I will point to here
is Cedric Coward. What is he? You gave up two
first round picks to get him and other stuff as well.
Are you not gonna play him if he's not rid
of the cow I'm and this is actually a criticism.
I'm actually curious how married to the immediate season is Memphis.
I know that they just paid renegotiating extended Jaron Jackson Junior,
but you move Desmond Baine. It felt like more of
a reorientation than a reset. And I'm not saying they're
gonna lean into a gap year, but given some of
the health problems they have given, some of the offensive
problems that I think they're still going to run into,
I think that are you gonna prioritize, Okay, we really
need to see what Gigi Jackson is this year. We're
gonna once Zach Edy's healthy, we're gonna explore what he
can do, like even more of and then Cedric Coward.
Of course, they have the potential to blow thirty eight
wins out of the water if they were gonna be
way healthier than we already know that they're not going
to be.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the they they have great insurance in the back
court for the Marint injury that has already happened, and
there'll be more up front. It's just Sanci al Damo's
gonna play some five like Jock Landale's gonna handle like
the jocs.
Speaker 1: Landale got the media day shout out.
Speaker 2: They're hurting right like up front of it, and and
maybe Edie is gone for a while. It sounds like
that's an injury that's gonna take quite a bit of time.
Jackson won't be out court for quite that long. But yeah,
they have guards and wings. I think KCP will be better.
It would be very difficult for CACP to be worse
than he was in Orlando. So where's yeah? So right, Yeah,
he won't be like, well, I don't know what he
shot from three, but.
Speaker 1: He actually ended up like it around thirty five percent
or something. It was the start of the season was brutal.
Speaker 2: He'll he'll be fine. I think he'll still be a
starting caliber shooting guard. So I went over the line.
Thirty nine and a half is just I think you'd
have to for me to go under. I think one
of two things would have to happen. I'd have to
really believe that, Like the retrenchment Desmond Baine trade was
the first of a couple similar moves where they're really
gonna and I mean they just resigned Jackson, so now
you're just talking about him Morant trade and I don't know,
like his market is not such that you can move
him for great value right now, So it's more of
a teardown is coming, or more of a retrenchment I
could see going under there, or it's just this injury
luck stays this bad all year and then also you
maybe lose like Pippin or Jerome or something, and you
just can't get the ball over half court and then
you can't do anything with it when you do it.
Just that number was too low for me. I actually
even had Memphis at like forty. I think I had
him at forty four, and then I dropped them one
just because basically the injury stuff. But I feel pretty
good about the over. I don't know if i'd lock
it or call it a best bet, but so far
I think this is the furthest I've been one where
the other from the over under, So maybe it's gonna
be my best bet when we're done. I don't know.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're halfway through. Neither of us are dropped at
best bet. Who are we up to next?
Speaker 2: Mister Hughes, the alphabet says the Minnesota Timberwolves. Oh, I'm
just feeling some best bet action here. Forty nine and
a half is the over under. So if you're going under,
I think you point to Mike Conley has maybe age
passed the point of being a starter, and you don't
love any of the options behind him, whether that's more
facilitation from Edwards, Rob Dillingham becoming a rotation player, Dante
DiVincenzo running some point guard reps. Don't love all that.
Rudy Gobert's thirty three, Maybe he slips a little bit
and you can't really Yeah, Nasried is the best backup
center in the league, at least according to salary. You're
a very different team if Nasried is your five versus
Rudy Gobert. So there's kind of ways for the bookends,
the older bookends to sabotage you. I just I just
think there's so much there's he was too talented and
not yet again a really good defense probably even if
Gobert is diminished, like Jade McDaniels is an ace wing defender,
Edwards can be as good as anybody. They're gonna be big.
So yeah, I'm telegraphing, but I it's hard for me
to get under fifty with this group.
Speaker 1: I did not go under fifty. But this was a
tough one for me. I went fifteen thirty two because
I would echo everything you said. What really gives me
pause is one they enjoyed better health last year than
I think people realized. I felt like Julius Randall missed
a crap ton of time, but he missed thirteen games.
Dante DiVincenzo missed twenty. Jane McDaniels played in all eighty two, right,
Ridigo Bear played in seventy two, Anthony Edwards played in
seventy nine eighty from nas reed and then you have
eighty two games in Ae Kile Alexander Walker to where
we're just banking on the combination of Jalen Clark, Terren
Shannon Junior, and Rob Dillingham, who play like combined five
hundred minutes or under a thousand minutes combined last year.
That's just gonna You're gonna figure it out from there.
Mike Cammy only missed eleven games last year. They also
have this tendency to just play down to the level
of their opponent. You and I talked a lot about
that last year, so I'm going over. But this is
a team that on paper I want to be saying, oh,
fifty five wins or something, and I just can't get there.
Speaker 2: I started higher. I think initially when I did my
first run through, I was in the fifty four to
fifty five, maybe even fifty six range, just and I
think on those first passes, I just kind of what
are the big issues? And one of them is Anthony
Edwards might just be an MVP, Like I don't know,
like that that's he might. He might level up by
ten percent, and that's all NBA first team caliber, and
that covers over a lot of your other potential problems.
I do think it matters that de Vincenzo and Randall
didn't just like parachute in right before the season, which
was the case last year. So maybe maybe they're the
best versions of themselves from the jump. That should help McDaniels.
Everybody pointed out took a quiet step as like a
self sufficient shot creator last season. Maybe McDaniels has another
bump up in him. He's always like shockingly young. You know,
it feels like McDaniels has been around for seven, eight,
nine years and he's you know, he's I think he's
at an age where still he could maybe has one
more you know, substantial growth period in him. So and
I think Gobert, I know I've raised the flag, but
I think Gobert should still just be someone that if
he's on the floor of your defense, is maybe not
the best in the world, but is like top five
ish just because of what he can do. He's still
gonna hurt your offense, but it is what it is.
So I could see I could see a scenario where
they they and not Denver, are the second best team
in the West and are pushing the Thunder if the
Thunder are kind of coasting and they get into the
high fifties, not I don't What I don't see is
like four to forty five, Like, I just don't know
how that would happen.
Speaker 1: They need to be decimated by the injury bulk, I think.
And I was about to make that same point to
where I think the most popular picks to finish second
in the West will probably be some combination of Houston,
Golden State, and Denver. But this feels like a team
that doesn't receive enough consideration there. Yeah, I say all this,
and I'm I'm like, oh, they're at fifty, but I
have I think I have a three teams just at
fifty Warriors Minnesota, and it's just the West is so
and to be fair, when you look at the standings
from last year, like that's kind of just what happens
in the West is that these teams are separated by
like just a couple of wins. If that yep, our
next team, grant, who do we have? Or it's mine?
Oh god, you're New Orleans Pelicans thirty one and a half.
I looked at this number, and you know what I
thought would generous? I didn't know the Pelicans were a
public team.
Speaker 2: Can I make the devil's advocate case here?
Speaker 1: Like what I won't listen to it? Put your feels
good to go ahead.
Speaker 2: I'm trying, well, I'm trying to talk myself into it
a little little bit because thirty one and a half
is a low number for a team that doesn't have
its pick right, Like, there's not a steer into the
skid capacity for the They opted out of maximizing the
payoff for losing a bunch of games. So that's one thing,
like there's not going to be a purposeful tank. The
other thing is isn't a lineup of what's it going
to be Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Zion and
center of your choice who will be bad. But those
four guys like that offense should be good, shouldn't it.
The defense is going to be terrible. But isn't there
a way where this offense is and maybe Dejonay Murray
comes back, you know, at some point and he's a
helpful player. Couldn't this offense be a top ten offense? Like,
isn't that a possibility? And then to get under if
that is what happens, their defense has to be bottom five,
which probably it will be. But even then you're like
thirty seven thirty six wins. Just if you're thinking of
like where they fall in the offense and defense rankings,
that is why is that not going to happen?
Speaker 1: For them to be a top ten offense? Zion needs
to play in sixty five plus games and the other
thing given across the board, right, But I would say
even if he does, don't you expect there to be
some level just given the long term equity they have
invested in them, of dependence on Jeremiah Fears, Derek Queen,
and that there will be growing pains there you also
kind of said it. I might be a little bit
higher on Eves Mesi than you. Kevon Looney's already injured.
This is one of the worst center rotations in the
NBA overall. If the Charlotte Hornets didn't exist, this center rotation.
I really like Eves mecI, but there's a chance he
look back and say, like, oh man, the Celtics center
rotation was better than the Pelicans this past year, and
so yeah, to your point, I think they can get
to some solid, like top end lineups. But I just
you know, what did Jehanne Murray look like then when
he's coming back. I'm not to spoil here. I went under,
you ended up going with. You went under as well.
You went twenty nine and fifty three. I went twenty
three and fifty nine. The reason I'm so low on
the Pelicans I love Zion, but I think that even
if he plays, this team is just so disconnected from
reality relative to the rest of their Western Conference that
it's really not gonna matter. And maybe I'm not giving
him enough credit, but I just look at this Pelicans
team as okay, cool, they could have like a top
twelve offense. I don't like, how many games is not
gonna get you in the Western Conference? The thirty one
and a half is maybe I'm too low at twenty
three and this was a team they haven't moved. When
I first went through my records, I just put in
twenty three for them. I assume that they're over under
was going to be in the twenties. I know they're
not trying to tank. I just don't what are the
teams they're gonna let's do this, which teams are they
gonna be favored to beat in the Western Conference.
Speaker 2: On the road road and maybe not even Utah if
it's on the road.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I can't again, and when you do think
about like Trey Murphy's dealt with some injury stuff, her
Joe what's coming back from was that the shoulder thing
last year. He's just really good and so maybe they're
able in his minutes. Murphy gets better, Jose Alvarado, maybe
the defense could be a little bit better than expected.
And I feel like Willy Green's had moments where he's
like coach, like helped them punched above their weight defensively.
This team is just, honestly, if if the Kings didn't exist,
this would be the saddest team in the Western Conference.
Speaker 2: It may still be. Honestly, I think like I wish
I had gone as low as you did, because then
I would have had a handful of more wins to
distribute to like Portland and San Antonio, who I like
a lot. But as we'll get to, I just I
couldn't give him enough wins to reflect that, Yeah, the
you've got Willy Green that has got how hot is
his seat? Like I mean maybe they just who.
Speaker 1: Cares this roster? What needs to happen?
Speaker 2: This is the thing that you're You're so right, And
when you pointed out the fears and Queen element of
it all, like I get it, Like in this in
reality they couldn't have gotten. They probably were ways they
couldn't have had both of those guys and also kept
their first their twenty six first round pick because they
needed to use it to get Queen because they couldn't
take them at seven for whatever reason, and they believed
in fears Like this makes this team makes so much
more sense and like its priorities align so much more cleanly,
and you can see not a vision, but at least
like a semblance of a plan. If they just have
that pick because then you can play Queen and Fai
and Fears all you want and they'll sabotage everything. But
guess what, you might win the lottery and that's that's cool.
Like that you continue to build that way to not
have that safety net. That's part of the reason I
went to twenty nine. Even though I think this team
is a mess.
Speaker 1: It's just like I couldn't.
Speaker 2: I couldn't do it.
Speaker 1: I like I.
Speaker 2: I just think they're And the worst part is maybe
they don't play those rookies as much as they otherwise
would because there's not that lottery payoff. Like it we
should just move on because it's we're only going to
pile on here.
Speaker 1: I do. I I think, what if I just played
in seventy five games? If I told you that right now,
would you go over.
Speaker 2: Uh, seventy five? Maybe? Yeah, they could get to thirty
two wins if he plays seventy five games, I might
do that.
Speaker 1: That's ending on a high note. I think Zion Williams
is a fantastic basketball player. There you go, we are
onto the Oklahoma City thunder grant. What are they're over
under vitals?
Speaker 2: It's sixty two and a half, and that is after
sixty eight wins last year, basically guaranteed to have the
best defense in the league. Super deep, everyone that matters
will be at least as good can be at least
as good or better. There are no like decliners here,
unless you think Alex Caruso is going to fall off
because playing thirty Yeah there, so yeah, right, even if
there were guys that are going to fall off, all
these other players, like you just play Aaron Wiggins and
Isaiah Joemore and you probably offset that the offense should
be better because that's that's like the one thing they've
had to try to tweak and improve on after the
title run. So this this is talk about a case
of like how many games do they want to win?
This is that team, right, because they could push, They
could go for the all time wins record. They set
the all time point differential record last season, so they
sure they could push for seventy. They could just also
look behind them in the standings and decide, we just
need to be one game better than whoever that is
Denver and just chill like play as basically, have none
of our three best players qualify for awards because we
don't care. We're just trying to repeat like that's on
the table too.
Speaker 1: That's the best bet. Sound. I went hard over at
sixty five wins. And I'm even nervous about that because
I think what you just said, maybe they don't play Shay,
Jaylen Williams and Chet Holmern in sixty five games one,
that'd be fucked up given the incentives that are tied
to Jensubs contractor if they can't two. I still think
that if they played it, if they all played in
sixty four or something. We just saw it. How many
games of Chet Hong hm playing last year? The thunder
per b Ball Indecks were top five in value loss
to injuries last year and they won sixty eight games.
Speaker 2: That's dumb. What a dumb stat.
Speaker 1: That's so you're right, that's dumb. I'm I'm wondering if
I'm too low. And look, Shay's out here saying that
he doesn't want to play that long in his career,
So what's he saving himself for. They might go you
mentioned seventy, they might go for seventy, seventy three, seventy four.
I And look, I do think that they're at a
point where they will be more concerned with the postseason.
And they have younger guys on this team. When Nicole
Topic is healthy, Brooks Barnheiser, even aj Mitchell, Cason Walsh,
you want to get them more reps. Some of those
guys like Kaseon Walsh might be so good that Yeah,
sure that might help your team for all we know.
I have a very tough time see this team winning
fewer than sixty five. I feel like I am being
conservative by putting them at sixty five.
Speaker 2: And how do you feel? How do you think? How
do you think I feel? I went under the mile?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was shocked. You went under. I just gid,
you're really sixty two? You really just like the thunder?
So why do you have them in the play? In?
Speaker 2: God? They're gonna suck, aren't they. I just it's they
just Adam.
Speaker 1: Flagler and free agency.
Speaker 2: This is rough, rutal to the Thomas Sorber injury. Just
really took me out of it. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Dylan Jones trade. How are they gonna Jones trade?
Speaker 2: I was a big Dylan Jones guy. Uh, sixty two,
So sixty three if you're going over like do of course?
I just made the case like they could win seventy plus.
I I just that's such a high number. If I'm
trying to win this, I think I need to go
under one because I'm sure everyone's going over and you
can still be by far the best team in the
league with this under. So like I don't know, I
I just I factored in all of the like post title,
let's relax, jadub starting with the you know, maybe not
one hundred percent, CHET might miss time like all that stuff.
Like I go under, and I acknowledge fully that they
could beat beat sixty two by ten wins. They could
easily win seventy two.
Speaker 1: I just look big. Jalen Williams is taking like twelve
threes per thirty six minutes in the preseason and making
them at a forty plus percent clip. This team is
just so unbelievably stacked. This was the I didn't think
about this one for a second. Oh, I guess if
you were to make a more compelling argument to me,
But I think it applies to too many of the teams.
But maybe not is they do feel like if you
ripped Shay, if something happened to him off this roster
for X amount of games, he's only playing in forty
or something, does their offense survive? And you could say
that about Denver, But after that Houston, is there any
one player that they can't lose? The Lakers, I guess
it's Luca Dallas doesn't have that one player. The Clippers,
to me don't really I guess Harden. But you could
still figure out ways so that level of dependence on she.
But then I would counter with J. Dub is just
gonna get better. Chet is like what he's due for
a healthy season, right, he goes every other now so
and he's going to get better. I if they hit,
if they go to the under, I'm gonna be very
curious to see why will be what you laid out
where it's sort of they're gonna be in chill mode.
Maybe there's games where maybe they have Shay Chet and
JDub all playing exactly sixty five games and just arresting
them constantly. Even then, no, man, I might still pick
them to win sixty plus. I'm not gonna lie.
Speaker 2: I just want to say I have them with six
more wins than any other team. So thereby I just
sid so low. Why do you hate the thunder? Why
don't you believe in him. That's that's a bigger gap
than I have between the Caves at fifty six and
the Rockets at fifty two. So just like you know,
they're the best team in the league. It's not close.
I just like to like to be a little controversial.
Speaker 1: I guess feel free to docs Grant for his terrible thundertakes.
We support it. Who is next? Oh god, I don't
want to do it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Phoenix Suns have an over under of thirty
one and a half wins, but what was Is that
the same as the Pelicans? It is right, I think
they were thirty one and a half. Devin Booker is
a point guard. Now, I know you've always been, and
I think it's not wrong to say, you know of
the mind that Devin Booker really is like skill wise,
about as good as you can do as a wing
facilitator or shooting guard who does point guard stuff. He's
had some seven assists seasons. I would counter with still
not a point guard. And also maybe you're taking away
from some of the other stuff he's great at. If
he has to do that, Jalen Green's already hurt. He's
like your other co point guard. I guess so unless
you believe very strongly in Colin Gillespie, who was on
a two way last year, or Jared Butler who had
some nice preseason moments but is like a journeyman, what
five years into his NBA career? There's not a point
guard on this team? Does that matter? Uh? I guess uh?
Based on my really, I'm gonna say yes, just a
little bit. What So there are some strengths on this
team right Like there, their wings can defend. Uh, they
have a lot of centers. I don't know if any
of them are gonna be any good.
Speaker 1: Two dollars hot dogs.
Speaker 2: You can't can't get too far without mentioning that we're
both under. You're at twenty seven wins. I'm at twenty
eight wins? Is that obviously that's what we think is
gonna happen. But like, are we too? Are we not
doing a good enough job of divorcing the Sun's general
like transactional nonsense and mismanagement and the ishia stupidity of
it all. Are we not splitting that off from the
actual roster enough? Because that's what my concern was when
I was like easy under.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good point because what we could say
is that there needs to be more distance between them
and the Pelicans and the Jazz because by putting them
a twenty seven wins twenty eight wins, you're kind of
shoehorning them into that tier of team at the Western Conference.
And could you also say, well, Devin Booker, for the
most part fairly durable. You said, they have a bunch
of wings that could defend common model. Watch looks like
he has more offensive skills just based off preseason than
I had seen in Summer league or just knew about him. Like,
are they a team that could be better than the
Blazers or the Kings? Then potentially, And so it does
feel there is some flexibility here, But I also don't
like that, Like what are you what do you trust
about this team? You mentioned that there is strengths, but like,
what is the strength that you look at and you
absolutely trust it? I don't. I don't have one necessarily, Okay, cool,
They have a lot of versatile players on defense, but
do Ryan Dunn, Dylan Brooks your big man rotation? Is
that enough to anchor what a top twelve defense? Which
is probably what you need to make sure that you
get into the thirties if your offense isn't going to
be great.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: Maybe, as you said at the top two, is Devin
Booker just so good that he uplifts. But I think
when it comes to the development of the bigs, you're
almost putting him in jail and Green at a disservice
by considering them point guards, because they're not always going
to deliver the ball in the ways that I would
say most of their bigs would want. Again, Malawatch, I'm
officially a little bit more interested in it feels like
he could give him the ball like a little higher
up on the floor. So we'll see. There's just too
many question marks and not enough definitive strengths on this
roster for me to think that they're going to be
into the thirties.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's hypothetical strengths, right, Like Mark Williams stays healthy
and he is the fifteenth best center in the league, right, Like,
that's okay, that'd be one way to crack thirty. I
would say. The thing that really gives me some pause
is we've seen Devin Booker be very very good on
very very bad Sons teams in the past, Like the
first stretch of his career. He's a better player than that,
but he was like a twenty seven and seven guy
on a Sons team that won in the twenties. Like
that's kind of know what that looks like. So he
could be great and it may not matter just because
you're just there's too many situations where like, okay, let's
play let's play booker Jalen Green and Grayson Allen, so
we get spacing or whatever, and like, all right, your
defense is real bad now, so we'll have to put
Dylan Brooks and Ryan Dunn out there. It's like, well, now,
there's just too many one way guys. There's not enough.
There's the point guard thing. I just don't understand how
that's being like not obviously the over unders low, so
this isn't happening on mass but like that, not enough
is being made of the fact that they're just gonna
go into a season with a first year head coach
and a remade roster that doesn't have a real point
guard on it. Like that, I know, like positionlessness is
the whole thing, and like, well, you need good decision
makers and guys who can move and pastor will shoot
at every position you want them to have size, like
you still need somebody to just run the show, Like
it can't just be Devin Booker. Nobody wants that. That
doesn't make anybody better.
Speaker 1: And I think, what's another interesting thing here, or at
least a potential subplot They they're not They don't control
the fate of their own pick, and so there's no
incentive to tank. But have you now entered just the
part of fuckedness where it's well, you have to operate
independent of that, to where if it doesn't look like
you're gonna do more than conten for an eleven seed,
why not give Devin Booker some rest to close the season?
Or is it do they start looking at, oh, trading
Dylan Brooks there's another team that's injured or things that
they need a defensive punch and maybe Dylan Brooks has
played pretty well in it hit in his threes. Yep,
that you're gonna trade them to Bracouf first or not
quily because they are still they're planning for the future.
You can't say if they're not planning for the future,
they're at the very least consigned to this being a
gap year and that they're hoping to do something splashy
or next summer, and so protect or capitalize on the
assets that you have. Now. I'm not saying this is
gonna result in a Devin Booker trade outsco the opposite.
If the Suns think that next offseason they're gonna be
able to put together some type of trade package for
whatever reason, part of that, well, we need to move
some of the guys that are helping us now. I
think Dylan Brooks would probably be the most likely candidate there,
just to get more first on equity in and maybe
increase your flexibility or options on the trade market. I
don't think we can discount that from happening. And that's
also part of the problem here. Grant to me, we
can't rule out anything. We could rule out them winning
fifty games, I think, but we can't rule out them
in terms of their direction. I don't think it's It's
not the same as where the Brooklyn Nets were at
after that first all in trade for the Celtics's geriatric stars.
But your pick equity is in a similar situation to
where no, you have to operate your team independent of
where those picks are going right now, because you're not
getting them back short of trading Devin Booker, which doesn't
seem like either side wants to have.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Right, that's the fix and that the best how
about this hot take? The best thing that could happen
to the Suns this year is they trade Devin Booker,
get as many of their own picks back as possible
in some other stuff, and then things make sense again
because you can win in the twenties and the it's
kind of like New Orleans and you'll have something to
show for it.
Speaker 1: I do wonder if that's because I would be curious
how many of your picks are you getting back in
that scenario, because Devin Booker just as a cultural touchstone
of the organization and someone wants to be there by
all appearances, what are you giving as this ownership regime,
as this front office with a very little track record.
I'd just be curious the fan reaction of Maybe some
of them would appreciate the full tilt rebuild, but I
almost think if you're gonna get let's say two of
your next first round picks back, I think fans just
might prefer to ride this out with Devin Booker.
Speaker 2: I think if it were a scenario where you could
ride as a fan where you could were riding it
out meant we can tend for a play in spot
or like maybe you know, things go really well with
the young players we have and we win forty five,
forty seven whatever, Like we're kind of a slightly better
version of the Bulls. And by the way, the Bulls
fans hate that. I think there'd be faction of Suns
fans that don't care and that don't want to hear
that maybe don't even know what the actual like situation
on the ground is with their picks and their long
term outlook. But I think a fan that is actually
like paying attention in Phoenix would have to acknowledge we
can win twenty five to thirty five games through the
life of Booker's contract, or we can trade Devin Booker
and you know, within that same timeframe. So say, by
like twenty thirty, have a team that actually can compete
for something. I think I would pick the latter. That
sucks for the interim when you're terrible, but at least
you're getting something out of it. I don't know. This
is a debate we always have about like we're so
quick to say blow it up without thinking about like
the season ticket holder perspective in Phoenix. So I guess,
I guess I get it, But there's just there's just
no hope if you don't if you don't, blow it.
Speaker 1: Up here, I don't know what the one thing I
I to quickly agree with. I don't know what the
path is to them even becoming a top six seed
in What needs to happen not this season, but let's
say buy twenty or twenty six, twenty seven. What needs
to happen for them to be a top six team
in the West. I think, first of all, I think
a few players need to be abducted by aliens from
other teams.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you need the rest of the West of collectively
fall apart is job one, which, good luck.
Speaker 1: Our next team is. Oh, not as set we have.
The Portland was ready to jump to the Kings. I'm
a masochist. The Portland Travelers at thirty four and a half,
this was tough. I know, it's right around where they
were last year. So in theory, oh, they traded for
Drew Holliday. We know Damian Lillard's not going to play
this year, but they should just get better. When you
look at some of the youth on their team. Some
people might view DeAndre Eton as additioned by subtraction. Some
people might not agree with that, because now your center
rotation is very dependent on Donovan Klingen. We love Young Hanson,
but he's also a rookie. Robert Williams the third. Will
he even play duopreath will solve everything? So damn? But
was this a hard one for you?
Speaker 2: Not? Relative to this number? I actually was even higher,
and I'll spoil it. I went with thirty eight wins.
I had him at thirty nine, and I think in
the earliest iterations of this I might have been closer
to five hundred. This defense is going to be really good.
That's the only thing I'm absolutely certain of, because I
think Timani Kamara is one of the seven or eight
best defenders in the league. I think Denny Avdya is
a very good defender. I think Drew Holliday can still guard.
They're always going to have size at center. Mattie Steibel,
who knows how healthy he'll be, but he's super disruptive.
I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody, but like this team, I
think can be a top ten defense, and I'd be
very surprised if they were like below average. So if
they are below average, then maybe the thirty four and
a half number is about right. Can they score? That's
I mean, that's what I'd throw to you, is like,
what is a Blazers team? Like, what's the way that
this offense gets to fifteenth? Like? How does that happen?
Speaker 1: Contents for an all NBA spot?
Speaker 2: Shade and Sharp becomes like we stop doing the Jalen
Green comparison because it's like insulting to Shade and Sharp
at some point, like he becomes that much better.
Speaker 1: Maybe the offense is what I struggled with here, and
again this might be me being going back to the
beginning of this podcast with Dallas and my too long
one teams where the defense might be elite and the
offense just isn't there from a regular season perspective. We'll
find out. I suppose I don't see the pathway to
them being even more than twenty what's the way them
avoiding a bottom ten offense? I was gonna say, they
feel like they're gonna be in like twenty fifth, twenty
fourth territory, and that's okay Toamati. Kamara shot the ball
well last year, but as Jeremy Grant, how much is
he gonna play? Does he get better? He shot like
negative percentage inside the arc? Exaggerating of course, but how
much is he gonna play? Drew Holiday? Does he have
a bounce back shooting season? When you're looking at there's
not gonna be as much room for him and move
inside the arc, And teams aren't gonna like they could
do whatever. They could defend your Holiday however they want.
At this point, with the way that the Blazers offense
is built, I just don't unless Yong. We look back
and like young Handsome is in the Rookie of the
Year running and it's because like he has everyone cutting
around him on offense and he's been able to even
space the floor from that position. I think that this
could be like bottom five offensive potential. And maybe that's
a little extreme because we have some of the like
where the Wizards and the Jazz and the Nets rank
when they're not trying to win. So again, perhaps that's
a little extreme, but the West is tough, and I
don't like Scoots injury, the hamstring thing. Yeah, what does
he look like when he's coming back from that? And
so aside from Denny Avdya. Who are you trusting to
generate offense for other Okay, it's great that Shaden Sharp
can do a ton off the dribble, or let's say
his shooting even improves. Let's say his defense improves too,
but they don't necessarily need him to defend on this team.
Who do you trust second most after Denny Avid to
set up shots for anybody else? And by the way,
the fact that Denny Avdya is the first player that
we're naming the or is awesome. Oh, we love Danny Avia.
But that's also part of the issue.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably young, handsome, right, it's a well, of
course it's him. Uh, it's kind of a like holiday,
I guess even though he already you're conceding that he
just isn't. I mean, maybe has never been a pure
point guard, you know, a pure setup guy, and certainly
isn't at this stage of his career. I think that's
I think you're right, Like the the shot, that's what
like for a guy who in two years has pretty
clearly been like a below replacement level player. The Scoot
Henderson injury is devastating because one of the ways this
might have worked offensively is he just has downhill pop
and he gets you running more and he just that
generates enough to where you're not a bottom ten offense.
Even that was an if, right because he's never really
put together a prolonged stretch of Oh he's a play
that would make you say, one he's lived up to
his draft billing, or two he's a driver of really
good offense like that just has not had happened, not
to say it can't. But he's starting, you know, behind
now because of the hamstring. So I think that's that's right.
Like I still go over. I think the defense will
be great and there are enough guys that are really
sharp Avvia Camara, maybe Klingons a little better, maybe young
Hanson is is it actually makes a difference. Uh, there's
there's enough guys I think that could improve offensively to
where the scoring is like passable, and then the defense
will just be very good. Still not a five hundred team,
but but I I think Portland is like, this is
not a team that is anywhere close to the Phoenix
New Orleans tier things. I think Portland is way better.
They're they're way better than that.
Speaker 1: Honestly, if you told me they were going to be
sixteenth or eighteenth in offense. If that was their floor,
I probably would put them over five hundred.
Speaker 2: This is they're right around there right Doing.
Speaker 1: The records is weird because we're both over and we
just spent the entire time talking about, well, this is
why they're only going to get X amount of ways.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm I'm still optimist. I like Portland. I
just I think they've got they've got a shot at
being a play in team. Maybe a little better than that.
But you know, thirty eight feels about It feels like
a conservative over for me.
Speaker 1: You want to take us to your team.
Speaker 2: Here we go with the Sacramento Kings added Russell Westbrook
on a non guaranteed deal that was of course that
came out after the initial reporting that didn't have a
number thirty five and a half wins for the Kings.
In some ways, the key factors are unchanged from last year.
It's still Sabonis, Levigne DeRozan leading an offense heavy team
that doesn't fit together. New top executive who did not
hire the head coach. Maybe price that in for some
loves Zach Lavine, by the way, I can't get enough
of him Keegan Murray will start the season hurt, which
was just like cool. The one player we can't replace
is now out. So Nee Clifford gonna play a lot
as a rookie was already gonna play a lot. Now
really is going to play a lot. Maybe that gets
Kean Ellis on the floor. Thirty five and a half
is a low number. They won forty last year and
are not so far removed from from well above that.
What are your sources? I don't know if you went
over or under here, but like what's the what's the positive?
Like what's the the not best case but realistic explanation
for how they go over this total?
Speaker 1: I think that the offense just ends up being so
good that it's like.
Speaker 2: The top seven.
Speaker 1: Maybe it needs to be at the level like light
the Beam Era levels, or at least close to it.
Which is that possible with the because they have a
lot of talent, But does it gel together enough for
you to say, let's say, top five, top seven whatever,
Like can they have that type of an offense?
Speaker 2: I mean Dennis Shruder being Brooklyn Nets, Dennis Shrewder would
be doing a lot of the lifting there. I mean,
if you just on paper let's say it's shrewder Ellis, Levigne, DeRozan,
Sabonis is your starting five? Like that's all those guys
are talented? Right? Like that? That's kind of what to
your point? What is that offense? How does that offense
function with with a center that can't space a point guard? No,
one's that scared of spacing your powerful.
Speaker 1: Is this? Are we going to do this? Are we
going to do this? I believe? Isn't he the relentless
beast of the base line?
Speaker 2: Yeah? He? The spacing thing is so funny because you
do get that pushback and it's like, well, if he
shot more than one every other game, uh, maybe defense would.
Speaker 1: Wasn't he didn't he have like real volume last year
though he had.
Speaker 2: To and change he he whatever it is, It wasn't
nearly enough for defenses to care because he's just that.
It doesn't it doesn't affect the offense.
Speaker 1: But at the center position two point two attempts per
game at a forty clip, you can space.
Speaker 2: You can't spa No, that's like saying Yonas Valentiunas is
a spacer.
Speaker 1: No, has he ever even done that?
Speaker 2: I don't know. You can't, we can't move forward with
with you saying Sabonis is a spacing big that.
Speaker 1: He had gravity. I'm saying that he so.
Speaker 2: He can he can make that he can make for
of the two wide open defense doesn't give half a
ship threes that he takes every game. We agree on that.
The numbers say that's true. Uh, the defense is just
gonna be god awful though, like unless you can clone
Keon Ellis in different sizes and just that's your lineup,
like DeRozan, Levine Sabone, Like there's there is I don't
know how this is not a bottom six maybe bottom
five defense. I don't I don't know how that happens.
Is that right? Like that's that's just there.
Speaker 1: If they're really good on the defensive glass and get
so good, then you get set. Yeah, I could see them.
It's going to be terrible. It's going to fact that
you have a ton of all offensive talent, none of
which is complimentary. And I saw I made a joke.
I don't remember what it was, because it wasn't good
when they signed Russell Westbrook and it wasn't about Russell
Westbrook specifically. It was like the Kings looked like vivek
round a dve x chat gpt to build a roster
that looks like vivek round a dv built it, and they.
Speaker 2: Said, don't hey, that's a good joke. Don't don't sell
yourself short.
Speaker 1: It's my whole thing, though, is It's not just that
this is the reaction to them signing a fifteenth man
or something. One. If Russell Westbrook is not playing, the
risk of it becoming a distraction needs to be factored
into the product here. And two, you just lost one
of your only wings and your response was to capitalize
on this month long dollions you've been having with another guard.
It's not Russell Westbrook specifically. It's the fact that you've
proceeded to do nothing else to just make your rotation
or your personnel more coherent. You've punted on backup bigs,
wings and complimentary offensive talent. All of that's important. The
least important of that is probably the backup big situation.
Because you sit here and say, Sabonis, who sucks according
to Grant, is just gonna play like thirty eight minutes
a game, and you'll you'll paper over it with whoever
Isaac Jones. Maybe you get some good minutes from him.
The ghost of Dariosaich is here as well. I just
this is this is a joke. This was under before
Keigan Murray's injury, and now it's I'm not saying that
he was the sole driving force of winning, but you
He and Keon Ellis, maybe Neete Clifford are basically your
lifelines to not being one of the three to seven
worst defenses in the NBA. And the fact that we
can't sit here and say that this is clearly a
top ten offensive team with the talent in place, I
would guess that I don't think they will lean into
this by choice, but there's going to be some upheaval
I would think mid season on this team, and I'm talking, yeah,
maybe it's Malik Monk gets traded, but does Sabonis get traded.
They're inevitably just gonna trade Keon Ellis for two second
round picks that we just know that's gonna happen at
this point.
Speaker 2: Right, And whoever gets Kean Ellison that deal will have
won it in a heist, just because Kean Ellis is
so the guys you mentioned Murray and Ellis and Clifford,
those are the only guys that can get you to
lineups that sort of makes sense, right, that don't just
grossly over index on like bald Levin is different. Levine's
a flat out great shooter off just period, great shooter,
just takes is it kills you in every other way
that that a player can kill you. But those three
guys are now down to two and one of them
is a rookie, And so Clifford can be great and
experience for a rookie, but like really can he? This
is what now, this is one of the two guys
that's gonna hold your team together and make it sort
of make sense. So, like I agree with you, there
is gonna be you know, because it's the Kings. You
can just price it in. There will be like hot
seat stuff for Doug Christie. There will be trade rumors
with Levin and DeRozan and Sabonis, probably two of those
three guys will leak to the media that they the
chaos in this franchise is too much. I gotta get
out of here, like they just bank on it. Like
there will be stuff that happens that is related to
the basketball product, but also like further undermines the basketball product.
It's just it's it's a given.
Speaker 1: And the other thing when you mentioned nee Clifford, And
even if you want to loop a Devin Carter or
an Isaac Jones into that, what is the mandate for management?
So nee Clifford's probably the most he is the most
important one of those three. But it's if are they
going to give him the runway to make mistakes? He's
not going to be as good as he was in
Summer League through and through At this point, you could
argue they have no choice but to play him. They
probably view it as well, like we could go with
four guards for most of the time. They might be
like that.
Speaker 2: Westbrook shrewder Monk, Levine, DeRozan like that. Why not, let's
just a roasting.
Speaker 1: Guard in five. Let's just easy, easy under. I honestly think,
even though they won't have the lowest win total, like
this just feels like the most impotent team in the.
Speaker 2: NBA directionless like yeah, they just with yeah, yeah, thirty
three wins for both of us. This is a pretty
pretty clear under for me. And the problem is more
so than some of the other teams with low over unders,
like they're trying to beat that number, like they you know,
they're gunning for forty plus.
Speaker 1: You've got me so fired up I'm ready to pull
wins from them and give them to the Pelicans. That's
how fired up you've got me. Right now about the Kings,
who do we have next grant?
Speaker 2: We have the San Antonio Spurs coming in with forty
four and a half for the over under. That's a
high number just given the general youth here and how
many minutes will probably go to young guys. One of
those guys is Wemby, though, so I get it, uh
like one of those I think I I just think
you more so than any other player. He messes with
what the overunder should be because nobody has any idea
what this season might look like for him, and that
goes both ways because he had a real serious health
issue last year that who knows, like, let's fingers cross,
prayers up it doesn't come back, but if it does,
then this team is you know, in the thirties if
it's lucky and if but if he's great, like capital
g great, like better than the half season last year.
And you know he is one of those guys that
in year number three is you know, a top three
MVP guy runs away with dpo wy like then I
don't know, they win fifty. This is a hard number
for me, is what I'm saying. What were your initial thoughts?
Speaker 1: This is not If I had another best bet to
give out, this would not be it because I don't.
I've Everything you said just resonates with me, and it's
I've seen people. The thing that I will push back
against is the fact that we're kind of there's so
many people that are just penciling them in from the Wembeople.
Oh yeah, like they'll be at forty eight, forty nine,
they could be a fringe contender. They'll definitely be top six.
I don't even mean this as an insult to the Spurs.
Have you looked at the rest of the Western Conference?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: And the other thing too is what is the level
of dependence when they're all healthy? Like, how does the
Steph Castle, Dylan Harper, Dearn Fox dynamic all work? I like,
we don't know. I love like the Luke Cornett signing
looks like it's gonna be spectacular. Him and Wemby already
have a chemistry. They won the minutes with Wembenyama on
the court last year, and so if he plays in
what are you playing as a rookie seventy one. If
he just plays in seventy one games again and you're
getting thirty plus minutes of we are winning those minutes.
Their ceiling is the ceiling is the roof. As Michael
Jordan might say, sure this was hard for me. I
did ultimately though, I went under and I'm not one
of the people that are. You know, there's a Victor
wembnyam a health risk. I'm at forty one and forty
one improvement over last year. I just don't know how
all these pieces fit together. I think the wing spots
are a little shaky. A lot of their best floor
spacers are in the front court. When you look at Barnes, Wemby,
Kelly Olinik like so that makes me partially uneasy. I'm
also curious to just see he is pretty adaptable. But
we mentioned those three guards and it's right, like, how
does Devin Vessel kind of factor into all of this?
Speaker 2: The defense could.
Speaker 1: And should be terrifying, though, when you have Steph Castle,
Victor Wenberyama, even just a healthy darn fox Jeremy Sohan's
gonna play, which will help their defense. But I also
think that that could do them a disservice on offense.
And so that's where when it comes back what Victor
Wembyama has been able to do generating his own paint
touches some of the passes he has thrown in the preseason.
He looks stronger, he's apparently twelve inches taller or whatever
it ended up being. But like, do you trust him
to be the I don't want to say the hub
because he's not working like that, but the primary driver
of what's a really good offense in the NBA. And
now it feels stupid to say that because well darn
Fox is also on this team. It's just so it's
so difficult for me to just reconcile like the guard
dynamics with what it feels like they also need from
Victor Wenbinyama on that end.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think offensively this will be the year where,
based on the preseason win, min Yama really does despite
having all these guards, does get an opportunity to like
explore the space quite a bit. And I think this
might be a season where I don't know where he's
gonna rank in turnovers, but it'll be really high, Like
he'll he's gonna get shots to do some honest stuff
where he's just barreling into traffic trying to get those
paint touches, which are valuable, and that is something he
should be allowed to kind of try to work on.
I just some of the flashes in preseason, even his
good games have been high turnover games. So he's not
someone yet who can be like the singular driver of offense,
or at least you're your main driver. And I don't well,
I like Harper a lot, and I think Fox is,
you know, not an All Star anymore, maybe but pretty
close to that. Those guys I think are still probably
gonna be better equipped as like generators of shots, and
maybe he'll That's the thing. The upside here is Wenby
proves me wrong and this team wins fifty plus because
he actually is a y, honest level guy offensively or
something like that. I just I think we're at least
a year away from that. But the floor again, here
we go. If he's in the game, the Spurs defense
will be spectacular and as long as he's healthy, defense
himself right easy, like even maybe even better than that
when he's out there. So yeah, forty one, I also
have forty one wins for them. It feels like change. No,
I do not feel good at all about it. Yeah,
I think we're a year away. And the other thing though,
to think about it just occurs to me, like, I
don't know they went for Fox last year. Is there
another trade that they're willing to make this season? If
Wenby's even better that that maybe raises their ceiling a touch.
I don't. I don't know, Like I wouldn't take it
off the table. If they're willing to go for Fox, what.
Speaker 1: Are they going to be involved if Yannis requests out
mid season?
Speaker 2: I got I hope so that that would be I've
been trying to make you honest to say Antonio happened
since like at least last year. That's my favorite spot
for him.
Speaker 1: Uh, it's I think it's my favorite spot for him
because I'm so I don't necessarily understand what it would
look like right away, so like it's the most fascinating
landing spot. I don't know what my favorite one would
be for him, but it's my most fascinating one for sure,
just the idea of him and Wemby and who's left
over after that. I don't we also don't like what
what is their end goal this because you trade for
dearon Fox, but you didn't have to give up a
king's ransom to get for him. So are you like
really married to going for it? Or is this We're
going to give Dylan Harper a ton of on ball reps.
We're gonna try and develop Steph Castle in different ways
on the offensive end, like you you already mentioned it
with Wemby, like it seemed was preseason just the experimental playground,
and they're gonna kind of even out his role a
little bit after that in the regular season. I don't
I don't know.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the interesting thing for them too is
if you do want to make that big trade, like
I think it's between Olnic and Harrison Barnes and maybe
so you can get to like forty million dollars if
and so hand will be restricted of like basically expiring money.
So if you wanted to and you want to get
those picks on the table, you don't need to really
take any key pieces away here to add somebody.
Speaker 1: I get three want to pay through the teeth, could you?
Speaker 2: You You have to be committing right, you'd say you're
saying then because Wembi will get super Max and then
Fox and this other guy.
Speaker 1: You think will get the Max.
Speaker 2: He might not get the escalators. They may have to
rename it, forget the Rose rule. They'll have to like
give it some special new explanation for why he's worth
forty five percent of the cap.
Speaker 1: You did mention if they have fifty win potential. I
would bet that if they got like forty nine or
fifty wins, Wemby is probably the MVP, Defensive Player of
the Year and most improved player. Just wins the triple Crown.
Speaker 2: Yep, I think and guess what on the table could happen?
Speaker 1: Yeah, on the table. Our final team is the Utah Jazz.
They're over under grants a little low. Uh, it is
that we both went over though, so great? Oh no,
you went under No. Eighty team, Oh at nineteen sixty three.
They're eighteen and a half the Utah Jazz are I
went over at twenty four and fifty twenty four and
fifty eight. This team is I think a lot of
people expect them to just be really bad, and your
record reflects that. I'm just they're very well coached the
fact that Ace Bailey is very well coached makes me
think that he could be in the running for Rookie
of the Year. And I just think Larry Market will
probably have a better season just there might be just
having Ace Bailey gives them another threat around him. You
know what you have in Bryce Sensabaz spacing Walter Clayton
Junior is another guy who's gonna give him space to operate.
I just feel like they don't need to They don't
want to win a ton of games. They probably call
them unhappy accidents internally, but they don't need to be
like an eighteen seventeen win team to be the worst
team in the Western Conference or half top four lotteryots.
Speaker 2: No, I think that's right. I think that's all. And
really like basically everybody that they've sort of tried to
make the cornerstone in the past and have and those
guys haven't proven to be good enough like or healthy
enough like the Hendrixes. And it's just Keyante, George, Isaiah Collier,
Cody Williams, Kyle Philipowski, just go down the list. Those
guys could all just be a little bit better. I
mean certain like Cody Williams almost by definition cannot be word.
I don't know if he's gonna play, but he was
just one of the most.
Speaker 1: Damaging calories a day. He's ready to start moving people
like Jalalen Williams. It's gonna be great.
Speaker 2: It's got his macro's squared away. He's he's real. Yeah,
he's so he'll be, you know, five percent better. I think, though,
in the end, that this the just giving control of
the offense to George and Collier and to a lesser extent,
Walter Clayton, who I think probably should if if they
cared about winning, should probably just have the starting point
guard job from the jump as a rookie. I just
think handing control of an offense to that level of
inexperience and to this point in effectiveness is just you.
You You're just not gonna be good. That's I don't
even if Larry Marketing is great, Like, it's gonna be
really hard for you to be effective. Yeah, they could
easily get twenty four. I'm over too, just because eighteen
and a half is so that's a crazy You can
the Jazz routinely accidentally win that many games?
Speaker 1: You know?
Speaker 2: You know, so I think they're over. I still think
they're pretty clearly the worst team in the West.
Speaker 1: I have the Pelicans as the worst team in the
West at twenty three and fifty nine verses twenty four
and fifty eight.
Speaker 2: I love that for you.
Speaker 1: That feels like that's one that could age pretty poor.
Speaker 2: That it feels personally, this is what it feels like
to me.
Speaker 1: I'm just angry. I've been so high on the Pelicans
in years past, and they just I'm taking it out.
I'm lashing out now, is what's happening. That's fair the
I think what would give me pause here if you
were worried about them not hitting me over or if
I'm even saying they're gonna get into like the mid twenties.
Are they so paranoid at this point? And Austin An
said they would do this? Yeah, Like you have Taylor Hendricks, healthy,
Walker Kessler, healthy Larry Market and healthy Ace Bailey's contending
for Rookie of the Year. Walter Clayton looks like he's
gonna make all rookie Brice sense a bo gets a
little bit better. You're playing someone like a George and
Yang is coming into helping you, Kyle Anderson's helping you.
Are they forced to early again where it's it's November
and they're, well, we were not fucking doing this again,
and it's just someone's traded. Everybody's shut down, and it's
I could see maybe it's anario where that happens, but
eighteen and a half is just such a low, low number.
Speaker 2: It's yeah, it's hard to get there, just in any
situation like that's just it's hard to win in the teams.
Uh So I think that's I think the cover they
have is just maybe from a fan perspective, that will
allow them to really. Now again, I don't know what
you do with market In and really to another to
a lesser extent, Kessler, because those guys will help you
win games that the shutdown may have to happen or
the trade may have to happen. I thought your conversation
with Sarah Todd was really illuminating about market and just
wants to be there and he knows what he signed
up for, so all this trade talk about him is
kind of like, so clearly it'll have to be the
Jazz that are saying we don't want you here because
it won't come from him. So that's a weird dynamic.
But to get back to the point, I think you
can get away with just this is the Ace Bailey season.
He's gonna shoot twenty plus times a game. It won't
be efficient, it'll be exciting, and you will leave the
year with a win total in the high teens and
believing that Ace Bailey might be actually the cornerstone they've
been looking for. I think that's kind of like everybody's
pretty happy with that, except for marketing it, I guess,
although maybe he's happy no matter what, because it seems
like he just wants to live there and be on
an NBA team.
Speaker 1: I don't know, you did not name your best bet, sir.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am struggling between the Minnesota over and honestly
the Portland Over because I think they're like a high
thirties team, So just for it to be fun, I'm
gonna take Portland as my best bet at thirty eight,
just a big, burly, robust thirty eight victories.
Speaker 1: My best bet was Oklahoma City over sixty two and
a half Grant. Grant's logic there was interesting where he's
trying to win this thing, so he already put himself
in anh one hole in the over competition by going
by going under. Man if they go under I'm gonna
look very foolish, which happens all the time for my comments.
Do you have anything else to add? Or we did it?
That's our record, predictions and our over unders are done.
I'm excited once again to have gone fifteen for fifteen,
and that's rough stuff for you.
Speaker 2: Grant, I really good, but I'm more just impressed. No,
I don't think I have anything to add except that
I look forward to having you remind me what I
thought about all these teams within like the next two weeks,
because I will forget except for Portland thirty eight wins.
I'll remember that one because you can lock it in.
Speaker 1: When you come on and you're talking about, OKAYC is
like a seventy five win team this year with the
weak of the season, I'm gonna remind you.
Speaker 2: I feel like I hedged enough to acknowledge that that's possible.
You know, of all the podcasts, this is the this
is the hedge Monster of podcasts, because we just like
to make sure we I acknowledge Dan that this team
could win twelve games or it could win eighty four,
and I just I just want to say I understand
both perspectives.
Speaker 1: Also, go ahead, I was going to say, we want
to know how many wins you think the Thunder and
everybody else are going to have.
Speaker 2: That's that's what I was going to do, and you
can do that. But Dan, we'll put the link to
the Google sheet here and you join our discord, you can.
You can get to it there. Links for all that
in the YouTube and podcast descriptions, rate review, subscribe, do
all that stuff. If you've enjoyed this offseason content, which
of course you have, because it's been just great a
especially all the look aheads which are almost over. Toronto's
coming next week. Look forward to that. That's going to
cover it. Tell your friends, tell your enemies, shout outs,
cranking look you know. Apologies, Jarrett,