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Speaker 1: What is up Fellasko's I am Dan Valley coming at

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you with the one, the only, My certified fantabulous co

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is mister Grant Hughes. We did Eastern Conference record projection

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slash over unders. I guess that means it's time to

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do the Western Conference. Before we get started, go join

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our over under competition. You could do that by joining

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our discord the links of the podcast and YouTube description,

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or just fill out the Google document that will be

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linked in the YouTube and podcast description as well. We

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have like a tenth or like the submissions that we

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did last year, Grant, So the people should go rush

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so that they can win any any one of our

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merch items as well as appearing on the podcast if

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they do win. So go join the over under competition

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see if you can beat Grant and I. And finally,

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if you haven't, go check out the look Ahead series.

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We are twenty nine teams are up. The Raptors will

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be going live on Tuesday, which is opening night, but

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they don't play, so it's all good. Now we get

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to the meet and Pat todotatoes the podcast. Grant, how

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the heck are you doing?

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Speaker 2: I'm feeling great. I think are my chance to win

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over unders this year, although we'll probably just tie since

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we have so many of the same looking good if

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we don't get more submissions. Also, like, that's such a

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call to action if you your odds are great of

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winning right now, if you make if you just get

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your submissions in in a hurry, you've got I don't

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know by the time this goes up a couple more

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days to get it done. Any notes about how you

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approach these things that we didn't really get into last year.

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Are you filling out the records before looking at the

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over under? Yeah, I definitely. I don't want to know

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the over unders ahead of time because then I feel

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like it puts me in too narrow over range and

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and you know you, I think the results are still

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like we skew pretty like in the East. I think

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we're mostly very close to the actual over unders, which

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is which is fine, but I, you know, balancing the

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wins and losses. I think we talked about this for

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the East too. You get in the business of of

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you need a win or two here for this team

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because it just feels too low or too high and

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you have to pull it from another team. So I again,

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I really do want a toy with trying next season

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not balancing wins and losses, because I mean, first of all,

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we'll probably be less accurate and that'll be more fun

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for everyone participating to beat us. But also I just

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think you get like a truer sense of what you

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actually think about a specific team if you're not also

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balancing the idea of like, well, I can't give this

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team fifty five wins because that means someone else has

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twenty six. And that's just there's no way that's you

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know what I mean, Like, I feel like there's a

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way to do this where you could have a truer

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reflection of how good you think each team is. But

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it's not what we did this year.

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Speaker 1: No, it is not. And let's start. We're gonna go

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in alphabetical order. We begin with the Dallas Mavericks. They

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have an over under a forty and a half grant.

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How you feel about that one?

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Speaker 2: Again? Pretty close, or I guess I should stay off

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the bat. Pretty close. It's it's really just a question

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of does overall talent, of which Dallas has a lot,

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does that win you more games than not? If the

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talent doesn't fit together very well? Which is just to

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highlight what you know. Issue number one for Dallas is

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lots of bigs and forwards, not a lot of ball handlers,

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almost no guards. What is not a lot of spacing obviously,

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which is what you'd expect with so few guards. What's

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that look like?

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Speaker 1: To me?

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Speaker 2: It looks like an over, but not by a lot.

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Speaker 1: So you had them at forty two and forty, I

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have them at forty and forty two. It feels like

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a slight under to me. They just the defense could

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be nasty, and I feel like that's a recipe and

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win a bunch of regular season games. They should dominate

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the glass. But I can't get past the offense of

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it all. I think Cooper Flag is going to be great,

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but you're putting him in a situation where they'll be

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negative spacing at least until Kyrie comes back. And when

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does Kyrie come back? How many games does Anthony Davis miss?

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This team is so tough to figure out. I almost

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feel like me putting them at forty is wrong because

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it feels like one of those classic low floor, higher

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ceiling things, and there'll be no in between to where, oh,

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they might win twenty eight or they just might win

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fifty or something on the back of a defense of

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their defense.

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Speaker 2: See, I think I kind of think about them differently

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because because I am pretty confident the defense will be

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good just that amount of size and length. Then you know,

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it's not like sure like Gafford, I guess you'd say,

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and maybe Davis now, but are more like conventional defensive centers.

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Davis is probably still okay switching, but you know, the

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likes of Flag and PJ. Washington and Naji Marshall and

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these guys can move. So I think the defense should.

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I think there's a high floor. Like it's hard for

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me to imagine that twenty eight win figure unless Davis misses,

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you know, all but twenty five games or something that

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and for sure, like from that perspective, there is a

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lower floor. But I, as I went through a lot

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of these in both conferences, I tended to kind of

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if you have a good defense, I like you for

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you know, around five hundred, just as a as a

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starting point.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's tough for me to imagine. Though. The

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other thing that I couldn't square away was them being

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over five hundred in the Western Conference when I was

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going through the process where it's your best offensive playmaker.

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Right now, the person that you're most likely to run

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the offense through is either D'Angelo Russell or Cooper Flag

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And I just don't know what that looks like relative

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to the West, But to your point, and I even

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kind of mentioned it to undermine my own point, if

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you're going to have a feisty defense, it does give

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you a higher floor. At least during the regular season.

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Speaker 2: You can beat a lot of bad teams. I think

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if you just shut them down and you only need

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to need to score one hundred and five points or

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you know what I mean, I could see that being

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the recipe for a lot of wins for them. I mean,

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obviously not a lot forty two, but it seems like,

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at least consensus wise, they're not an upper class Western

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Conference team. Like playing feels about right, and like probably

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on the lower end of that group.

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Speaker 1: You want to take us through to Denver Nuggets.

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Speaker 2: Denver Nuggets come in at fifty four and a half wins. Obviously,

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before I throw it to you to kind of lead

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us off, you've added Yonas Valanciunis, You've swapped out MPJ

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for Cam Johnson, You've brought back Bruce Brown, You've got

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Tim Hardaway junior who might hit some shots for you.

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So the bench is the thing that people are focusing

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on as a pretty significant improvement. Maybe you get some

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growth from some of the younger guys, but like, you

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don't need Peyton Watson and the Strawthers and Pickets and

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whoever else is of the world to fill those roles.

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Speaker 1: Now.

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Speaker 2: So that's a pretty high over under. That's got to

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be what Second in the West probably is. I don't

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have them in front of me. How do you feel

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about that? How do you feel about that number?

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Speaker 1: I feel pretty it's high. So I don't think I

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could look at this and say this is going to

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be one of my best bets. But they are deeper.

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I probably disagree that it feels like they need Jaln

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Pickett to do something, or Drulian Strawther to not pop

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but do more as a ball handle, or maybe even

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Peyton Watson because I'm not super high on the outwor

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as high on the addition of Bruce Brown. I think

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he gives them capable depth. But what is the secondary

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point guard situation on this team? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: Is it him as a John Pickett. They've put the

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ball in Peyton Watson's hands more during the preseason, which

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I find interesting the fact that they're deeper. Adam Otd

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has pointed this out on the look Ahead that he

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thinks that Joki is going to have to work less

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for his shots and also not take as many as them.

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And the other thing that's been interesting too. We know

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that everyone loves what Cam Johnson can do away from

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the ball, but defensively, they are going to try different things,

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and in the preseason we kind of saw a glimpse

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of it. I saw the Clippers game. You saw them

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try a lot of different stuff where they're varying a

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lot of the levels that Joki is going to be at,

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their playing some zone, and I'm just wondering if by

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virtue of functional diversification on defense, they're just more equipped

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to rattle off wins in the regular season than ever,

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because I don't know how many Jokic teams have even

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cleared fifty five during the regular season. Has it been

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more than one?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not sure. I think there's at least been

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one that might have been the title team. I just think, like,

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do you get the feeling that so they're over unders

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fifty four and a half. We can put the numbers up.

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I'm predicting them to win fifty four, so it's an

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under I guess for me, which I don't feel like.

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You've got them at fifty five, so you get to

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say over. I mean, those are both high KI totals.

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Speaker 1: And they've only hit fifty five or more. They've only

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hit fifty three or more once during the like the

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Jokic year. Oh no, they had fifty four to this,

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So they've only hit fifty five or more once during

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the Jokic years, and so there is a level of risk.

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But if you think that Jokic gets to play a

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little bit less or the minutes without him just aren't

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as terrible because you can run some things through valance uness,

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It's like, I don't know, it's it's it's not my

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best bet, but I feel really good about this team.

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Speaker 2: I get it, Like I think that was the thing

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I was gonna ask is do you think this is

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a situation of they can kind of win within a

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certain range, like let's say up to fifty nine or sixty,

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and at a low low end forty eight, they can

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kind of do you think they can sort of go

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anywhere they want to within that range based on like

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how they gain minutes, how they rest guys, or is

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it like, no, they're gonna try as hard as they

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can and fifty five is where it stops. Because to me,

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it feels more like they it's kind of up to

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them within that range, Like they really could go high

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fifties if that's a priority for them. I just don't

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know if it will be.

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Speaker 1: I think they could get to sixty if they enjoyed

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just close to picture perfect health. And I think if

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if Yokic qualifies for which there's no reason to think

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he would, I'm just using that as the baseline. If

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he qualifies for an award, he's played in sixty five

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plus games, they're just a fifty something win team if

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you get better availability from him. I don't like Aaron

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Gordon leg stuff is always just basically playing on one leg.

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By the end of that series against Oklahoma City, Cam

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Johnson has missed time here and there. There's noise when

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you look at the teams that he's played for. Of course,

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that's what gives me positive. Of course, the I think

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they're deep. I just don't know that you look and say, Okay,

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they're dependably deep, because I think you would have to

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look at their reserves and say, oh, David Adaman is

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gonna maybe have to futz and fiddle with his bench

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rotations on a night to night basis. Aside from I

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think you can count on Jonas valentiwnis and you know

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what you're gonna get from him for the most part

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night in a night out. That certainty might end there.

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Speaker 2: Right, And I think you can you can say that

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this is a much better bench than Denver has had,

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certainly a much better backup center than they've had in

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the Jokic era. But that's not the same thing as

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saying the bench is a strength. It's just not as

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terrible as it has been. So the reason I asked

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that is, I do think like between Murray is another

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one that had you know, how many games are you

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going to get out of him? So with Johnson, Murray

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and Gordon all guys that probably should be rested and managed.

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That's that's part of my reasoning for the under I

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just think if they wanted to this, they could blow

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this number away. I think it just I think they're

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gonna be.

240
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Speaker 1: Careful, so insummation, You're just a hater.

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Speaker 2: I'm a coward.

242
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Speaker 1: Yeah, the Golden State Warriors forty six and a half

243
00:11:31,639 --> 00:11:34,919
the number itself. Maybe I was just looking at what

244
00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,080
the Clippers and the Lakers. God, I thought it was

245
00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:39,360
gonna be a little bit higher than this. What about you?

246
00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:41,519
Speaker 2: I would have thought so too, because what do they

247
00:11:41,559 --> 00:11:44,759
win last year? Like, weren't they forty eight last season?

248
00:11:44,879 --> 00:11:47,360
And that's they were like five under five hundred when

249
00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,720
they acquired Jimmy Butler. So it's hard for me to

250
00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:55,000
to go lower than last season just because they the

251
00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:57,320
version of the team that closed the season was way

252
00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:59,240
better than a forty eight win team. So I think

253
00:11:59,279 --> 00:12:02,639
you skew up from there probably right, Like that's to me,

254
00:12:03,399 --> 00:12:05,279
and that they're a public team too, like there are

255
00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:07,639
a lot of Warriors fans, not to the Lakers extent,

256
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:12,159
where just the Lakers numbers are always inflated just to

257
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:15,000
because people will go over on them because they're optimistic,

258
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and there are a lot of fans like the Warriors

259
00:12:16,399 --> 00:12:18,639
are kind of that same way. So I have a

260
00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:21,360
hard time. I mean, there's an obvious answer right for

261
00:12:21,960 --> 00:12:24,559
why there might be skepticism about this team and it's.

262
00:12:24,399 --> 00:12:25,879
Speaker 1: Just age Santos.

263
00:12:26,360 --> 00:12:29,080
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, nobody loves in Gi Santos. I have the

264
00:12:29,120 --> 00:12:33,120
thought today that if you could give Jonathan kuminga Gee

265
00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:37,919
Santos's motor, you would have a fifteen time All Star.

266
00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,000
That's got nothing to do with this discussion, and I

267
00:12:42,080 --> 00:12:42,919
just wanted to share.

268
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Speaker 1: That this is the type this is the type of

269
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stuff you think about during your downtime.

270
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Speaker 2: I forgive it, right, Yeah, what do you think. I mean,

271
00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:52,279
forty six and a half is low. We're giving it away, but.

272
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Speaker 1: I think yeah, I mean we both went over here.

273
00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:57,159
I was actually higher on them than you were. I

274
00:12:57,159 --> 00:12:58,960
have them at fifty and thirty two. You have them

275
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,399
at forty nine and thirty. The health and the age thing,

276
00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:04,759
we know that as soon as if Steph even shows

277
00:13:04,759 --> 00:13:07,000
signs of just looks tired on one night, Steve Kerr

278
00:13:07,080 --> 00:13:09,279
is gonna sit him out the next game. That's fine.

279
00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:13,000
They're better built to navigate that than they have been

280
00:13:13,159 --> 00:13:16,360
since the Kevin Durant era. At the very least, and

281
00:13:16,799 --> 00:13:19,120
the minutes that Jimmy Butler played during the regular season

282
00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,600
without Steph, they went really well on the defensive end.

283
00:13:21,919 --> 00:13:24,440
I think if you bake in some improvement from a

284
00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:28,039
Brandon Pajemski, maybe Moses Moody getting a little better with

285
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:30,759
more playing time, just the fact that their offense has

286
00:13:30,799 --> 00:13:33,039
so much spacing now in the front core with Al

287
00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:37,240
Horford and Quinton Post. I think, Look, you can very

288
00:13:37,279 --> 00:13:41,039
easily talk me into under fifty wins, but this team

289
00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,960
I don't like anything less than forty eight forty nine.

290
00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:47,240
I know I'm only at fifty. I'm almost kicking that

291
00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:50,799
in as their floor or closer to their floor. But

292
00:13:51,039 --> 00:13:54,039
unless you think that Steph just isn't gonna play most

293
00:13:54,080 --> 00:13:56,519
of the year, which is a distinct possibility, I just

294
00:13:56,559 --> 00:13:59,639
don't know that you can predict it. I forty six

295
00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:01,279
and a half feel so low.

296
00:14:01,559 --> 00:14:04,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is another team that, like the defense

297
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,080
will be very good. It's not going to be best

298
00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,679
in the league. It's not Thunder, it's probably not Rockets level,

299
00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,279
but top ten. I think for sure they were the

300
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:16,879
one of the best full stop after Butler showed up,

301
00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,399
So that sets the floor pretty high, I guess, Like,

302
00:14:21,000 --> 00:14:23,039
I mean, I get it right. Like we had the

303
00:14:23,039 --> 00:14:25,480
discussion on the look ahead of how many games are

304
00:14:25,559 --> 00:14:27,799
the four old guys going to play together where they're

305
00:14:27,840 --> 00:14:30,480
all four in the lineup and not managed in any way.

306
00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:32,960
If it's half the season, that feels like a win.

307
00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:37,120
If it's if it's forty one, pretty good, right, maybe

308
00:14:37,159 --> 00:14:40,440
all maybe you get three of the four in fifty

309
00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,159
five or sixty. I think they should be favorites in

310
00:14:43,240 --> 00:14:46,279
almost all those games, right, like you know, with some exceptions,

311
00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,279
So the ceiling like this again, I said it on

312
00:14:49,279 --> 00:14:51,000
the look ahead too, like I think this team has

313
00:14:51,039 --> 00:14:55,600
the capability to win sixty if everybody magically stays healthy

314
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:59,799
and there's no age related decline. They're and let's not

315
00:14:59,879 --> 00:15:02,200
for get like there's a kaminga trade out there that

316
00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:05,080
will surely be for short term like shorter term help.

317
00:15:05,320 --> 00:15:08,159
Speaker 1: So do you think that works against repressing their win

318
00:15:08,279 --> 00:15:11,840
total though, because people might be factoring in could this

319
00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,879
go poorly and he's either actively hurting the encore product

320
00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,480
or the situation is just so toxic that it infests

321
00:15:18,519 --> 00:15:19,720
the rest of the team.

322
00:15:20,559 --> 00:15:23,080
Speaker 2: Maybe that's part of the calculus in my opinion. If

323
00:15:23,159 --> 00:15:25,559
he's not playing well, he just won't play and like

324
00:15:26,519 --> 00:15:28,240
you know, and he can be as upset as he wants,

325
00:15:28,399 --> 00:15:30,759
you're not gonna like you could try to rock the boat.

326
00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,679
But with these four veteran guys like and just the

327
00:15:33,720 --> 00:15:38,559
culture and all the like. Kaminga can't like upend anything

328
00:15:38,639 --> 00:15:41,159
by being pissed off because he's kind of been unhappy forever.

329
00:15:41,480 --> 00:15:44,320
So what's the difference if it goes? If that's if

330
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:46,919
that's your reason for going for setting it at forty

331
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:48,759
six and a half, I'm not compelled by that.

332
00:15:49,879 --> 00:15:53,320
Speaker 1: The other proposal for me would be, is it because

333
00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,960
it's not just the stars the main players are old,

334
00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,440
it's oh, the secondary players deal with all this health stuff. Yeah,

335
00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,919
surgeries the off season. Melton isn't gonna start season healthy.

336
00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:05,360
GP two always dealing with something.

337
00:16:05,440 --> 00:16:08,639
Speaker 2: And Moody has got a calf thing that he may

338
00:16:08,639 --> 00:16:10,679
not be ready for opening night, so that start there.

339
00:16:10,759 --> 00:16:13,399
Jimmy Butler sprained his ankle and practice the other day,

340
00:16:13,440 --> 00:16:16,120
so it's kind of like if you're if you're pessimistic,

341
00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,519
you can start. You can kind of start pointing already.

342
00:16:18,559 --> 00:16:21,000
It's a see like this, this is what we're dealing with.

343
00:16:22,080 --> 00:16:24,000
I still think they're just they have enough depth and

344
00:16:24,039 --> 00:16:26,360
there's enough real NBA players on here to kind of

345
00:16:26,919 --> 00:16:29,279
to be competitive every night, even when you don't have

346
00:16:29,360 --> 00:16:33,480
all of the vets available who we got next. We

347
00:16:33,559 --> 00:16:37,000
got Houston next, minus Fred van Vliet. This is a

348
00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:42,320
fifty two and a half over under number. I mean, again,

349
00:16:42,759 --> 00:16:45,879
Dan like, it is very high. I don't know how

350
00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,000
much I would like to know what it came down from.

351
00:16:48,080 --> 00:16:51,120
I imagine it was closer to fifty four before the

352
00:16:51,200 --> 00:16:55,120
van Fleet news. I kind of got out in front

353
00:16:55,159 --> 00:16:58,200
of it, thinking this team has so much talent and

354
00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,279
size and defense that I'm not I don't think the

355
00:17:01,360 --> 00:17:04,759
van Fleet injury crushes them as much as some might say.

356
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:07,799
I might amend that to focus it more on the

357
00:17:07,839 --> 00:17:11,160
regular season, which is where your depth in your size

358
00:17:11,200 --> 00:17:13,759
and your defense like matters more night tonight. As a

359
00:17:13,759 --> 00:17:17,319
postseason threat, probably it does hurt them more than I

360
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,880
was sort of giving it credit for. But fifty two

361
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:22,440
and a half still a pretty big number when you

362
00:17:22,519 --> 00:17:25,119
lost the starting point guard, and he was someone that

363
00:17:25,799 --> 00:17:27,920
kind of did some stuff you're not sure you can

364
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,440
get from anybody that's going to replace him. So yeah,

365
00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:34,759
I agree, it's high. I why do you think it

366
00:17:34,920 --> 00:17:37,440
stayed so high if Van Fleet is so important?

367
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,599
Speaker 1: I guess because they're they run so deep in NBA

368
00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:45,000
play like capable NBA players, and you still add Durant

369
00:17:45,079 --> 00:17:47,599
to where if you say Durant is going to take

370
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:49,920
he's not going to get the Fred Van Fleet touches,

371
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:51,680
which is actually part of the problem. It's so you're

372
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,720
replacing Jalen Green with Kevin Durant basically, which is just

373
00:17:55,759 --> 00:17:59,920
an insane upgrade, and then Am and Thompson getting better.

374
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,559
They're huge and as you said when we were talking

375
00:18:02,599 --> 00:18:05,680
about the Mavericks, defenses are gonna if you have a

376
00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:07,519
top tier defense, is going to ensure you beat a

377
00:18:07,519 --> 00:18:10,119
lot of the bad teams. So I do recognize that

378
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,960
it gives them a high floor. But if you're clearing,

379
00:18:13,160 --> 00:18:16,519
if you're getting a fifty three or more, what has

380
00:18:16,599 --> 00:18:19,240
happened is Kevin Durant played in seventy something games. Is

381
00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:23,000
Amen Thompson your second best offensive player? All of a sudden,

382
00:18:23,000 --> 00:18:27,400
are we getting Alprin Shangun making all NBA, Which, by

383
00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:30,400
the way, none of those things are close to impossible

384
00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,599
right on their face, but it feels like, just because

385
00:18:33,599 --> 00:18:35,799
the offense is going to be such a tough slog

386
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:39,759
that you would need almost two of those three developments

387
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:41,960
to happen, or maybe you throw in o Jabari Smith

388
00:18:42,039 --> 00:18:44,599
Junior or the handles better, he's attacking off closeouts and drives.

389
00:18:45,279 --> 00:18:48,200
I just read Shepherd. I'm not gonna mention him. Maybe

390
00:18:48,200 --> 00:18:51,799
he just absolutely goes off. I think Fred van Fleet

391
00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,759
was just so important to what they needed to do

392
00:18:54,799 --> 00:18:56,680
on offense as someone who could didn't need to be

393
00:18:56,799 --> 00:18:59,559
on the ball, but who defense is respected on and

394
00:18:59,599 --> 00:19:02,440
away from it. And they found ways to score or

395
00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,720
for Ahmed Thompson to be effective within him limitations and

396
00:19:05,759 --> 00:19:08,839
I won't look the passing his ability to work with

397
00:19:08,880 --> 00:19:10,960
the ball in his hands too, But I just can't

398
00:19:11,759 --> 00:19:14,279
who is their best creator? Now? It's between shanng Gun

399
00:19:14,319 --> 00:19:15,279
and Thompson, right.

400
00:19:15,680 --> 00:19:19,799
Speaker 2: Yeah, less unless Shepherd really pops. But yeah, in terms

401
00:19:19,839 --> 00:19:23,200
of if youver betting, it's those two guys. So we

402
00:19:23,200 --> 00:19:25,720
can put the numbers up. I'm going under, but it's

403
00:19:25,759 --> 00:19:29,079
fifty two for me and you've got him at fifty

404
00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:32,279
and thirty two. I just think I think what you

405
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:36,440
said is right, Like they can get over. You can

406
00:19:36,480 --> 00:19:39,119
imagine we're looking back at this and they've won fifty

407
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,960
six or whatever, and you could put together several scenarios

408
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,359
to explain that it could be Thompson becomes an All

409
00:19:45,440 --> 00:19:48,480
NBA caliber player at least an All star shng Gun

410
00:19:48,839 --> 00:19:51,920
small step forward. He's already been an All Star Smith.

411
00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,960
It gets better Easan stays healthier and plays more, and

412
00:19:55,000 --> 00:19:58,000
the defense is even better. They really do have great

413
00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:01,839
success with just super over size double big plus Jabari

414
00:20:01,880 --> 00:20:04,160
Smith lineups and the defense is the best in the

415
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:06,559
league right because Oklahoma City takes its foot off the

416
00:20:06,599 --> 00:20:10,359
gas or whatever, Like there's Shepherd pops, Like Durant has

417
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:13,079
a fifty forty ninety, which wouldn't be that weird, but like,

418
00:20:13,599 --> 00:20:17,599
there's just ways for them to beat this number. I

419
00:20:17,759 --> 00:20:21,519
just so, and I'm not that far below the total anyway,

420
00:20:21,599 --> 00:20:23,960
So I'm just I'm just banking on like not all

421
00:20:24,039 --> 00:20:26,519
of those things happening and that, and I'm admitting a

422
00:20:26,519 --> 00:20:29,839
little bit that Van Fleet's absence is gonna hurt.

423
00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,759
Speaker 1: Which is the thing that's really hard to reconcile is

424
00:20:33,839 --> 00:20:38,480
giving them fewer wins after they added Kevin Durant, right,

425
00:20:38,519 --> 00:20:41,440
And I don't and I don't know how to describe it,

426
00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:43,160
but I think there's a chance they were twelve in

427
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:46,240
overall offense last year. I think there's a chance that

428
00:20:46,279 --> 00:20:49,240
they acquired Kevin Durant and that their offense could actually drop.

429
00:20:49,799 --> 00:20:51,519
Maybe they're gonna beat maybe they will be able to

430
00:20:51,519 --> 00:20:53,319
clean up the offensive glass so much. But I'm looking

431
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,240
at this team now and saying, if you go duel

432
00:20:56,279 --> 00:20:59,240
Big a lot and now you have KD, I don't

433
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,640
know how much time going to spend in transition. Probably

434
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:04,759
still a lot, because Aman Thompson is a human hurricane.

435
00:21:05,319 --> 00:21:08,240
But if that even comes down a little bit and

436
00:21:08,319 --> 00:21:10,680
your first chance offense is still just sort of shake.

437
00:21:10,759 --> 00:21:13,640
I mean, Kevin Durant's a great first chance offensive option,

438
00:21:13,839 --> 00:21:16,200
so maybe that's what boost them. But if you were

439
00:21:16,240 --> 00:21:19,119
asking me to pinpoint where they're going to rank offensively,

440
00:21:19,519 --> 00:21:22,319
or if you even just said will they be better

441
00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,200
on offense than they were last year, I'm not willing

442
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:25,799
to bet on that.

443
00:21:26,240 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 2: No, And if they are, it would have to be

444
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:32,119
the offensive rebounding recipe, because like if you said, put

445
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:36,240
your five best rockets on the floor, there might be

446
00:21:36,279 --> 00:21:38,839
one guy the defenses are afraid of beating you for

447
00:21:38,839 --> 00:21:42,759
eat right right, just him. But even Durant, like has

448
00:21:42,799 --> 00:21:45,319
the volume from three for him has never been super high.

449
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:48,160
I think Jabari Smith Junior has immense value because I

450
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,400
think you can shoot it, But like those are the two,

451
00:21:51,640 --> 00:21:53,799
like Thompson would have to make like the leap of

452
00:21:53,799 --> 00:21:56,240
all leaps to be a threat to be guarded seriously

453
00:21:56,279 --> 00:21:59,599
as a three point shooter. Same for Shingoon. Whoever else

454
00:21:59,599 --> 00:22:01,480
you want to out there is going to be someone

455
00:22:01,519 --> 00:22:04,039
that defenses can sag off of. So I think I

456
00:22:04,079 --> 00:22:05,680
think they could be a team that kind of loses

457
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,400
the math game. We probably should have mentioned this for

458
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:09,640
Denver too, because that's been a criticism of Nuggets for

459
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:12,119
a long time. Is just not in a volume from three.

460
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,240
The Rockets I think will struggle to you know, the

461
00:22:15,319 --> 00:22:17,480
Rockets aren't gonna win a bunch of games like Boston

462
00:22:17,519 --> 00:22:20,559
did last year because they shot sixty threes and they

463
00:22:20,599 --> 00:22:23,880
made twenty two of them, and that's just it's gonna

464
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:24,960
get it done a lot of nights.

465
00:22:25,400 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 1: No, that's rough too, because you just made me think.

466
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:30,200
So Jalen Green, Dylan Brooks and Fred van Fleet were

467
00:22:30,200 --> 00:22:33,640
they're three leaders in three point makes all one. Yeah,

468
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,160
and like you said, Kevin Durant, that's not he can

469
00:22:36,599 --> 00:22:38,400
shoot threes, but he's not going to come in and

470
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,200
you have Steph Curry like volume on it.

471
00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: No, I mean yeah, So that that's the offense is

472
00:22:44,960 --> 00:22:45,400
going to be the.

473
00:22:45,759 --> 00:22:49,039
Speaker 1: Volume on it. Yeah, no, which is isn't that don't

474
00:22:49,079 --> 00:22:51,680
you feel bizarre saying that I know we're looking at

475
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:53,559
the context of the roster, but don't you just feel

476
00:22:53,559 --> 00:22:57,599
bizarre saying that after they acquired Kevin Durant it could.

477
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,319
Speaker 2: Be a pretty classic overthink by both of us, like adding,

478
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,720
Kevin Durant should just meet Your offense is better even

479
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:04,400
if you lose Van Fleet. But we'll see.

480
00:23:04,839 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 1: I'm with you. We're onto the Los Angeles Clippers forty

481
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:12,759
seven and a half. I was torn between thinking that

482
00:23:12,839 --> 00:23:15,119
this is a little too low because I'm pretty preseason

483
00:23:15,160 --> 00:23:18,640
pilled and the depth on this team is just absolutely absurd.

484
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,759
But as I started putting together, I had to pull

485
00:23:21,799 --> 00:23:24,039
wins away from them to make some of the stuff work.

486
00:23:24,039 --> 00:23:26,079
I finished short on wins at one point, and then

487
00:23:26,079 --> 00:23:27,559
you go a little bit over. You have to adjust.

488
00:23:28,519 --> 00:23:33,519
This team is honestly forty seven. Doesn't it feel like

489
00:23:33,559 --> 00:23:35,799
that is closer to their floor. My record's not going

490
00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:38,680
to reflect that that I gave. But this is a

491
00:23:38,759 --> 00:23:42,440
fairly easy over for me because I don't think that

492
00:23:42,519 --> 00:23:45,279
there's a single player on this roster they can't afford

493
00:23:45,279 --> 00:23:48,160
to lose for fifteen plus games.

494
00:23:48,799 --> 00:23:52,519
Speaker 2: I agree with that, I think so this was not

495
00:23:52,559 --> 00:23:55,160
an easy one for me. I actually initially when I

496
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,079
did my first run through, had him at forty seven

497
00:23:57,079 --> 00:23:59,160
and I moved to forty eight. So yay for me.

498
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:02,759
I'm over on the Clippers and the depth is this

499
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,440
real strength here? Obviously? Oh look at us pair of

500
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:09,160
forty eight win seasons. The depth is a huge strength, right.

501
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,160
Like I was just thinking the other day, if you

502
00:24:11,319 --> 00:24:15,880
just if if this Warrior starting five Chris Paul Bogdan Bogdanovich,

503
00:24:17,799 --> 00:24:20,480
Derek Jones Junior who might start, but just go with it,

504
00:24:21,319 --> 00:24:24,920
Nick Batoom, Brook Lopez. That's five guys that can shoot.

505
00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,799
There's good defenders there, there's like pick and roll playmakers,

506
00:24:27,839 --> 00:24:30,039
there's kind of everything. And that's your bench, unless it's

507
00:24:30,079 --> 00:24:32,519
callings coming off the bench instead of Jones Junior, whatever,

508
00:24:32,720 --> 00:24:37,599
Chris Dunno's it's like a five hundred team, it feels like, right,

509
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:40,319
so they go eleven deep if you throw Chris dunn

510
00:24:40,319 --> 00:24:43,079
in there, who I think absolutely should get some minutes. Still,

511
00:24:44,799 --> 00:24:47,759
the issue for me is, while I agree with you

512
00:24:47,880 --> 00:24:51,240
that you can afford to lose any one of these guys,

513
00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:55,119
there's like a there is a somewhat plausible scenario where

514
00:24:55,160 --> 00:24:58,680
like Harden slips from after like kind of a break

515
00:24:58,839 --> 00:25:02,279
like a late career renaissance last year, and or misses

516
00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:04,519
more time, Kawhi misses more time easy Price that in

517
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,279
Beal is cooked, and or miss his time. Brook Lopez

518
00:25:07,359 --> 00:25:09,200
is done because he's in his late thirt like, there's

519
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,160
you could get to like, oh, actually, there's like five

520
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,400
or six guys that are either going to miss a

521
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,440
ton of time or are past, like way past their

522
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,720
primes to the point of like they're not even starting

523
00:25:19,759 --> 00:25:23,440
caliber players anymore. That's unlikely, but that's how I think.

524
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,400
That's part of the reason I think this number is

525
00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:28,359
where it is is because while they can lose one,

526
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,119
I don't think anyone believes they're just gonna lose one.

527
00:25:31,319 --> 00:25:34,200
I think there's gonna be multiple guys that you could

528
00:25:34,279 --> 00:25:39,000
foreseeably say oh this, oh boy, it happened fast, it

529
00:25:39,039 --> 00:25:41,960
came quick, didn't like the cliff's edge was there, and

530
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,359
then he was over it. So I think that justifies

531
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:46,279
the number. And that's why I had a hard time going.

532
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:48,559
I couldn't go way over. I couldn't get over fifty.

533
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:49,680
Just with the downside.

534
00:25:50,319 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: And you say all that, and I would probably agree

535
00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:54,799
that that's why the number of lands where it does.

536
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,839
And yet I'm mad that I only gave them forty

537
00:25:57,880 --> 00:25:58,400
eight wins.

538
00:25:58,519 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 2: Right, This is just because case if you had to

539
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:03,640
pull from somebody, I fell into that trap.

540
00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,720
Speaker 1: I'm more annoyed because I didn't have to pull this time.

541
00:26:06,759 --> 00:26:08,759
Remember we were talking on the East. I actually, yeah,

542
00:26:08,799 --> 00:26:11,720
I'm probably pessimistic as hell this year and so, but

543
00:26:11,759 --> 00:26:13,240
I'm looking at this team in the more I think

544
00:26:13,279 --> 00:26:15,359
about it, I'm going over so I don't feel the

545
00:26:15,440 --> 00:26:17,599
need to go back and change it the fuck up

546
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,000
my math. But yeah, I'm almost going to be kind

547
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,759
of surprised if they don't hit the fifty win mark

548
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,359
that you would have to tell me that they weren't

549
00:26:25,400 --> 00:26:27,920
trying to get there. I'm just you went through the

550
00:26:28,039 --> 00:26:31,200
names on their roster and it's Brook Lopez has looked

551
00:26:31,240 --> 00:26:35,200
fantastic in preseason, Chris Paul's looks fantastic. This team is

552
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,279
just they have a starting lineup coming off their bench

553
00:26:38,680 --> 00:26:41,079
and they can I think if there was one concern

554
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:43,680
aside from the health. For me, I am curious to

555
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,640
see what the defense will ultimately look like. I think

556
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:48,920
having Derek Jones Junior in the starting lineup is really

557
00:26:49,000 --> 00:26:51,880
smart because contrary to what has been out there, I

558
00:26:51,880 --> 00:26:54,960
don't remember a season where Bradley Beal was an elite defender,

559
00:26:55,079 --> 00:26:59,039
especially at the point of attack. So but I don't

560
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:02,359
this team is. So I'll say this, I actually think

561
00:27:02,400 --> 00:27:04,440
there are gonna be two teams this year like there

562
00:27:04,440 --> 00:27:07,359
were last year that have a top five offense and defense,

563
00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:11,160
the Thunder or one, like that's the team your pencil

564
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:13,839
in there. I think the Clippers have the best chance

565
00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:16,000
at being the second one. Who else are you choosing

566
00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:17,279
to have that honor?

567
00:27:17,839 --> 00:27:20,279
Speaker 2: I mean, Golden State went healthy, but that's that's a

568
00:27:20,279 --> 00:27:20,799
big win.

569
00:27:21,799 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 1: Yeah you're saying that about the Clippers, though too.

570
00:27:24,559 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: Could Cleveland do it? Like if if you believe the

571
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,759
offense will be top five, I think full stop and

572
00:27:29,799 --> 00:27:35,039
then is mobilely a step better? And and like I

573
00:27:35,079 --> 00:27:37,079
don't know that that's a possibility, but yeah, it's a

574
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,440
short list for sure, And the Clippers have the if

575
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,039
the Clippers are healthy and they don't suffer like major

576
00:27:42,559 --> 00:27:46,200
healthy for them. So fifty games from Kawhi, you know,

577
00:27:46,559 --> 00:27:50,200
sixty five from Harden and they don't have major dropoffs

578
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:54,839
from all those guys like yeah, easy, easy into the fifties,

579
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:56,920
like no problem.

580
00:27:57,039 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: We're on to the Los Angeles Lakers where they at grant.

581
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,079
Speaker 2: They're at forty eight and a half, which, as I

582
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,920
mentioned earlier, it is insane to have them with a

583
00:28:07,000 --> 00:28:12,680
higher over under than the Clippers and Golden State, but

584
00:28:13,279 --> 00:28:16,519
that's just what happens with Laker over unders. They get inflated.

585
00:28:17,839 --> 00:28:21,039
Are you concerned by the fact that Lebron James might

586
00:28:21,079 --> 00:28:24,200
play twenty five games this year as he manages Sciatica

587
00:28:24,240 --> 00:28:25,759
and they only care about the playoffs?

588
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 1: Do you know? My first instinct was when I heard that,

589
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,920
I was really genuinely bummed out. I saw the jokes

590
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:34,599
that were being made and kind of, well, what are

591
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:36,640
you supposed to expect, Like he's going to his age

592
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,480
forty one season, And we had this conversation. I don't

593
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:42,599
know what podcast we were recording, but we recognize that

594
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,799
we're just getting to the end of Lebron and as

595
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:47,960
much as some people can stand him and might think

596
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,680
he does things that are performative or annoying, this sucks,

597
00:28:51,759 --> 00:28:53,799
Like I don't want to be reminded. I had to come,

598
00:28:53,839 --> 00:28:55,319
but I don't want to be reminded of how old

599
00:28:55,359 --> 00:28:57,640
he's getting or how close to the end that we are.

600
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:01,200
I'm hoping everything I've read and watch says that it's

601
00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:04,839
a complicated injury to come back from. I just lean

602
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,880
Luca GLP one, Luca, Okay, we throw him in here,

603
00:29:07,920 --> 00:29:10,599
and he could carry a team to what I guess,

604
00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:11,880
forty eight wins on his own.

605
00:29:12,319 --> 00:29:12,519
Speaker 2: Yeah.

606
00:29:12,559 --> 00:29:15,519
Speaker 1: I don't know. If you're saying Lebron's gonna miss significant time,

607
00:29:15,559 --> 00:29:17,519
and then they're probably it's not even just missing time,

608
00:29:17,559 --> 00:29:20,599
but so he'll come back. They'll probably bring him along slowly.

609
00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:22,839
Maybe there's a minutes limit. Is he not playing it

610
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:26,160
back to backs this year? I just don't that's a

611
00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:29,599
really big He's the second most important player on your team,

612
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,839
and if he's not, that's catastrophic.

613
00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:35,279
Speaker 2: Right right. And so a couple of other things to

614
00:29:35,359 --> 00:29:38,480
factor in here too. One, when Kevin Pelton did his projections,

615
00:29:38,519 --> 00:29:41,680
the Lakers had four guys that graded out as above

616
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,599
replacement level, and the Lakers were one of the other

617
00:29:44,640 --> 00:29:48,319
teams that had that. Few were like Brooklyn, Washington, Utah,

618
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,880
like or you know, Charlotte, and that was including Lebron.

619
00:29:52,160 --> 00:29:55,240
So now it's basically I assume it's Luca and Reeves

620
00:29:55,279 --> 00:30:00,799
and I don't know Ayton or ja Hacha Mura maybe

621
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:04,200
so like super top Heavy, I think that's a totally

622
00:30:04,279 --> 00:30:07,680
fair criticism. I'm still of the mind that like, if

623
00:30:07,720 --> 00:30:10,400
you have Luca and it's it looks like he's gonna

624
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,839
be closer to like the best version of his Dallas self,

625
00:30:14,799 --> 00:30:17,119
it's really hard for you to not win forty five,

626
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:20,000
forty six, forty seven. But how could do you think

627
00:30:20,039 --> 00:30:22,799
this defense is gonna be? Because remember last year there

628
00:30:22,839 --> 00:30:25,240
was like a stretch where how is JJ Reddick doing this?

629
00:30:25,319 --> 00:30:27,359
And it was like and they did the weird thing

630
00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:30,119
against Jokic where they had like a helper come from

631
00:30:30,119 --> 00:30:34,839
somewhere different was so like schematically, I do think there

632
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,880
there's some evidence that Reddick can get the most out

633
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,599
of the personnel he's got, at least for stretches. They

634
00:30:40,599 --> 00:30:42,400
play the math game, they you know, they limit the

635
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,960
right kinds of shots all that stuff. But like this

636
00:30:46,039 --> 00:30:49,279
de like unless Jared Vanderbilt can be played like thirty

637
00:30:49,319 --> 00:30:54,960
minutes a night like this, and Marcus smart is, I

638
00:30:55,039 --> 00:30:56,319
was how far back to you I was gonna go

639
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,799
like twenty eighteen a long ways back, like this defense

640
00:31:00,480 --> 00:31:04,599
personnel wise, and like maybe that's a playoff problem because

641
00:31:04,759 --> 00:31:07,799
you know that's when you'll target Reeves a lot or

642
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:10,359
Luca or put Ayton in a bunch of picking rolls.

643
00:31:11,279 --> 00:31:14,279
But I just personnel wise, this defense has no business

644
00:31:14,279 --> 00:31:16,480
being top half of the league. So the offense has

645
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:18,839
to be great for them to beat this over under.

646
00:31:19,440 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, and there's DeAndre Ayton or the idea of him

647
00:31:23,440 --> 00:31:25,000
a few years ago is doing a lot of heavy

648
00:31:25,039 --> 00:31:27,519
lifting when it comes to it, because look at how

649
00:31:27,559 --> 00:31:30,200
he's left Phoenix in Portland. It was like these are

650
00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,599
teams that were just fine letting him go.

651
00:31:33,279 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 2: I paid him to leave, like they paid him.

652
00:31:36,440 --> 00:31:39,680
Speaker 1: That's and it doesn't seem like it was as bad

653
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:41,720
as people were painting behind the scenes. But like he

654
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:46,599
wasn't the driving force necessarily of their defensive success. And

655
00:31:47,039 --> 00:31:51,079
he hasn't been that basically since the Suns made the finals,

656
00:31:51,240 --> 00:31:54,519
which was around a half decade ago. At this point,

657
00:31:54,559 --> 00:31:56,680
Marcus mart as you already mentioned, they're not. Are they

658
00:31:56,759 --> 00:32:00,480
running him through a time machine? So I get, like,

659
00:32:00,599 --> 00:32:05,160
I just the theory of looking Look, Jake Lavia, versatile

660
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,039
on the defensive end, can be moved around a little bit.

661
00:32:07,079 --> 00:32:09,000
But I think you look at the Lakers's top three

662
00:32:09,079 --> 00:32:12,000
players in Reeves, Lebron and Luca, and even if you

663
00:32:12,000 --> 00:32:15,160
want to say top four, if you're including RUI, are

664
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:19,359
they all defensive liabilities or at least at their best

665
00:32:20,000 --> 00:32:23,000
defensively average when they're at their absolute peak. That just

666
00:32:23,079 --> 00:32:25,519
feels like a huge problem.

667
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:30,079
Speaker 2: Right, And so for those reasons, I am out on

668
00:32:30,119 --> 00:32:33,559
the over forty seven wins I predict, you predict forty eight.

669
00:32:34,119 --> 00:32:37,400
I think we're both just acknowledging a healthy Luca, your

670
00:32:37,400 --> 00:32:40,799
team will be good. But forty nine wins is just

671
00:32:40,839 --> 00:32:43,400
too many for the talent level on this team, and

672
00:32:43,440 --> 00:32:47,599
also no extension for Lebron kept some of the powder dry.

673
00:32:47,839 --> 00:32:50,799
Dorian Finney Smith leaves, doesn't it feel like this is

674
00:32:50,799 --> 00:32:55,599
a Lakers season that you know we're just in transition?

675
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,160
Like that? It's just Luca, go do what you want,

676
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,519
win a scoring title, contend for MVP if you can,

677
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:05,480
and we'll we'll, we'll really get after it in twenty

678
00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:06,599
six twenty seven.

679
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 1: I I that is feels like an accurate read. I

680
00:33:10,039 --> 00:33:13,359
was going to ask you how many games would Lebron

681
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:15,599
need to play in for you to go comfortable hitting

682
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:18,440
forty nine or fifty wins for this team, and even

683
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:20,640
is there even a number that would make you feel

684
00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:21,480
comfortable doing it?

685
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: Well, I think too the numb The number I'd be

686
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:30,079
more concerned with is Luca's games played, probably like can

687
00:33:30,079 --> 00:33:33,440
he get you seventy and then from there Lebron? If

688
00:33:33,519 --> 00:33:37,039
Lebron gives you fifty five sixty, then then maybe that

689
00:33:37,039 --> 00:33:39,000
makes me feel better. But it is just very much

690
00:33:39,319 --> 00:33:42,759
Luca needs to be peak Dallas Luca, I think to

691
00:33:42,839 --> 00:33:47,039
hit this over and so far, so good, But but

692
00:33:47,119 --> 00:33:49,559
I just I don't know. You could argue that this team,

693
00:33:49,559 --> 00:33:51,799
even with Lebron, is less talented than some of those

694
00:33:51,920 --> 00:33:54,519
Dallas teams. I mean, he made the finals, like that's

695
00:33:54,559 --> 00:33:56,240
so that's not doesn't feel like a stretch.

696
00:33:57,000 --> 00:33:59,319
Speaker 1: The other thing too, we mentioned DeAndre Eaton. There's not

697
00:33:59,319 --> 00:34:02,000
a lot happening center after him. By the way, it's

698
00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:03,799
not as if they fit even if they got a

699
00:34:03,839 --> 00:34:07,480
really good version of DeAndre eight. And there's Maxi Kleiba,

700
00:34:07,599 --> 00:34:09,480
we know he can't stay healthy. The theory of Maxi

701
00:34:09,519 --> 00:34:10,400
Kleba's a lot of fun.

702
00:34:10,559 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 2: Love that.

703
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:16,559
Speaker 1: Hell, yeah, Jackson Hayes again not an NBA center well, hey,

704
00:34:16,559 --> 00:34:19,280
look co he keeps getting contracts grant, So I agree

705
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:22,039
to disagree this is It feels weird though, because if

706
00:34:22,079 --> 00:34:23,880
we I really expect this to be like a Luka

707
00:34:23,920 --> 00:34:28,199
Doncic revenge campaign. And so I just I don't know,

708
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:30,400
and I am shocked to echo your point at the

709
00:34:30,440 --> 00:34:32,400
top of this that they're over under was. I know

710
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,000
they're a public team, but to just be higher than

711
00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:36,840
the Clippers is bizarre to me.

712
00:34:37,039 --> 00:34:38,320
Speaker 2: Yeah.

713
00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,559
Speaker 1: With that, we move on to the Memphis Grizzlies. They

714
00:34:41,559 --> 00:34:44,760
are at thirty nine and a half, even though they

715
00:34:44,760 --> 00:34:47,719
may have the longest average injury port on a night

716
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,679
to night basis by season's end. This was a hard one. Shocker.

717
00:34:51,960 --> 00:34:55,320
I'm zero for six of my last Grizzlies picks. This

718
00:34:55,480 --> 00:34:56,360
was a hard one for me.

719
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,039
Speaker 2: I should make you say your number first so I

720
00:34:59,079 --> 00:35:01,079
can just do the opposite and bank this win.

721
00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,960
Speaker 1: Let's do it then, So this is not gonna surprise

722
00:35:03,960 --> 00:35:06,320
Grizzlies fan. This should be great news for Grizzlies fans,

723
00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,199
but I am going under. I have them at thirty

724
00:35:09,239 --> 00:35:13,559
eight and forty four. Look, I think that there might

725
00:35:13,599 --> 00:35:16,159
be a higher baseline for this team than even I'm

726
00:35:16,199 --> 00:35:20,440
crediting when they're fully healthy. How many games are they

727
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,559
going to be fully healthy for the like the big

728
00:35:23,599 --> 00:35:27,440
man rotation is gutted essentially to start this season. Uh,

729
00:35:27,599 --> 00:35:30,920
John Morant hurt already and he's always okay, he's telling

730
00:35:31,039 --> 00:35:34,280
he's saying, people are overreacting to the injury. Buddy, look

731
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:35,840
at the number of games you've been available.

732
00:35:35,880 --> 00:35:39,039
Speaker 2: Oh we got it, Buddying.

733
00:35:39,039 --> 00:35:43,079
Speaker 1: It's genuine concern. Like there's if John Rant gets hurt,

734
00:35:43,119 --> 00:35:46,320
that is genuinely concerning. And I think they have a

735
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:50,440
lot of good secondary offensive a TD, Jerome Scotti, Pippen Junior.

736
00:35:50,519 --> 00:35:53,039
Those are two guys that definitely help you in John

737
00:35:53,119 --> 00:35:56,599
Morant's absence. They also help just extend your depth. Kntavius

738
00:35:56,639 --> 00:35:58,639
called well Pope. If he shoots a little bit better,

739
00:35:58,639 --> 00:36:00,320
that's a guy who's gonna help you on defense. We

740
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:04,920
love Jalen Wells Aside from the injuries, though, they have

741
00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:08,320
a lot of question marks that almost need to contribute

742
00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,280
a ton. And the one I will point to here

743
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:14,760
is Cedric Coward. What is he? You gave up two

744
00:36:14,840 --> 00:36:17,280
first round picks to get him and other stuff as well.

745
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:19,800
Are you not gonna play him if he's not rid

746
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:22,239
of the cow I'm and this is actually a criticism.

747
00:36:22,280 --> 00:36:27,280
I'm actually curious how married to the immediate season is Memphis.

748
00:36:27,320 --> 00:36:30,679
I know that they just paid renegotiating extended Jaron Jackson Junior,

749
00:36:31,079 --> 00:36:32,960
but you move Desmond Baine. It felt like more of

750
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,559
a reorientation than a reset. And I'm not saying they're

751
00:36:35,559 --> 00:36:38,039
gonna lean into a gap year, but given some of

752
00:36:38,079 --> 00:36:40,880
the health problems they have given, some of the offensive

753
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:43,320
problems that I think they're still going to run into,

754
00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:45,960
I think that are you gonna prioritize, Okay, we really

755
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:48,239
need to see what Gigi Jackson is this year. We're

756
00:36:48,280 --> 00:36:51,239
gonna once Zach Edy's healthy, we're gonna explore what he

757
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,599
can do, like even more of and then Cedric Coward.

758
00:36:53,639 --> 00:36:57,599
Of course, they have the potential to blow thirty eight

759
00:36:57,639 --> 00:36:59,960
wins out of the water if they were gonna be

760
00:37:00,119 --> 00:37:02,920
way healthier than we already know that they're not going

761
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:03,199
to be.

762
00:37:03,840 --> 00:37:08,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, the they they have great insurance in the back

763
00:37:08,199 --> 00:37:11,239
court for the Marint injury that has already happened, and

764
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:15,840
there'll be more up front. It's just Sanci al Damo's

765
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:18,960
gonna play some five like Jock Landale's gonna handle like

766
00:37:18,960 --> 00:37:19,400
the jocs.

767
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:21,960
Speaker 1: Landale got the media day shout out.

768
00:37:22,239 --> 00:37:24,159
Speaker 2: They're hurting right like up front of it, and and

769
00:37:24,239 --> 00:37:27,239
maybe Edie is gone for a while. It sounds like

770
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,119
that's an injury that's gonna take quite a bit of time.

771
00:37:29,199 --> 00:37:32,440
Jackson won't be out court for quite that long. But yeah,

772
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,719
they have guards and wings. I think KCP will be better.

773
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:37,880
It would be very difficult for CACP to be worse

774
00:37:37,960 --> 00:37:42,480
than he was in Orlando. So where's yeah? So right, Yeah,

775
00:37:42,519 --> 00:37:44,360
he won't be like, well, I don't know what he

776
00:37:44,400 --> 00:37:45,199
shot from three, but.

777
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:47,679
Speaker 1: He actually ended up like it around thirty five percent

778
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,719
or something. It was the start of the season was brutal.

779
00:37:51,119 --> 00:37:53,519
Speaker 2: He'll he'll be fine. I think he'll still be a

780
00:37:53,639 --> 00:37:59,559
starting caliber shooting guard. So I went over the line.

781
00:37:59,679 --> 00:38:03,440
Thirty nine and a half is just I think you'd

782
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:06,679
have to for me to go under. I think one

783
00:38:06,719 --> 00:38:09,119
of two things would have to happen. I'd have to

784
00:38:09,199 --> 00:38:14,119
really believe that, Like the retrenchment Desmond Baine trade was

785
00:38:14,159 --> 00:38:17,480
the first of a couple similar moves where they're really

786
00:38:17,519 --> 00:38:19,639
gonna and I mean they just resigned Jackson, so now

787
00:38:19,679 --> 00:38:21,519
you're just talking about him Morant trade and I don't know,

788
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:23,519
like his market is not such that you can move

789
00:38:23,599 --> 00:38:26,679
him for great value right now, So it's more of

790
00:38:26,679 --> 00:38:29,119
a teardown is coming, or more of a retrenchment I

791
00:38:29,159 --> 00:38:32,159
could see going under there, or it's just this injury

792
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,840
luck stays this bad all year and then also you

793
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,679
maybe lose like Pippin or Jerome or something, and you

794
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,920
just can't get the ball over half court and then

795
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:42,400
you can't do anything with it when you do it.

796
00:38:42,559 --> 00:38:45,559
Just that number was too low for me. I actually

797
00:38:45,599 --> 00:38:47,199
even had Memphis at like forty. I think I had

798
00:38:47,239 --> 00:38:49,880
him at forty four, and then I dropped them one

799
00:38:50,079 --> 00:38:53,039
just because basically the injury stuff. But I feel pretty

800
00:38:53,039 --> 00:38:54,480
good about the over. I don't know if i'd lock

801
00:38:54,559 --> 00:38:57,360
it or call it a best bet, but so far

802
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,000
I think this is the furthest I've been one where

803
00:39:00,039 --> 00:39:02,800
the other from the over under, So maybe it's gonna

804
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:04,320
be my best bet when we're done. I don't know.

805
00:39:05,239 --> 00:39:07,159
Speaker 1: Yeah, we're halfway through. Neither of us are dropped at

806
00:39:07,159 --> 00:39:09,119
best bet. Who are we up to next?

807
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:13,559
Speaker 2: Mister Hughes, the alphabet says the Minnesota Timberwolves. Oh, I'm

808
00:39:13,960 --> 00:39:17,000
just feeling some best bet action here. Forty nine and

809
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:22,039
a half is the over under. So if you're going under,

810
00:39:22,199 --> 00:39:25,079
I think you point to Mike Conley has maybe age

811
00:39:25,119 --> 00:39:26,920
passed the point of being a starter, and you don't

812
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:30,719
love any of the options behind him, whether that's more

813
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:35,079
facilitation from Edwards, Rob Dillingham becoming a rotation player, Dante

814
00:39:35,079 --> 00:39:38,440
DiVincenzo running some point guard reps. Don't love all that.

815
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:42,119
Rudy Gobert's thirty three, Maybe he slips a little bit

816
00:39:42,159 --> 00:39:45,440
and you can't really Yeah, Nasried is the best backup

817
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:48,039
center in the league, at least according to salary. You're

818
00:39:48,079 --> 00:39:50,800
a very different team if Nasried is your five versus

819
00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:54,360
Rudy Gobert. So there's kind of ways for the bookends,

820
00:39:54,400 --> 00:39:58,519
the older bookends to sabotage you. I just I just

821
00:39:58,559 --> 00:40:01,159
think there's so much there's he was too talented and

822
00:40:01,159 --> 00:40:05,079
not yet again a really good defense probably even if

823
00:40:05,199 --> 00:40:10,000
Gobert is diminished, like Jade McDaniels is an ace wing defender,

824
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:13,119
Edwards can be as good as anybody. They're gonna be big.

825
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:18,199
So yeah, I'm telegraphing, but I it's hard for me

826
00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:20,280
to get under fifty with this group.

827
00:40:21,480 --> 00:40:24,599
Speaker 1: I did not go under fifty. But this was a

828
00:40:24,599 --> 00:40:26,679
tough one for me. I went fifteen thirty two because

829
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,519
I would echo everything you said. What really gives me

830
00:40:29,559 --> 00:40:33,039
pause is one they enjoyed better health last year than

831
00:40:33,079 --> 00:40:35,280
I think people realized. I felt like Julius Randall missed

832
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,280
a crap ton of time, but he missed thirteen games.

833
00:40:37,559 --> 00:40:41,960
Dante DiVincenzo missed twenty. Jane McDaniels played in all eighty two, right,

834
00:40:42,079 --> 00:40:45,480
Ridigo Bear played in seventy two, Anthony Edwards played in

835
00:40:45,519 --> 00:40:49,400
seventy nine eighty from nas reed and then you have

836
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,039
eighty two games in Ae Kile Alexander Walker to where

837
00:40:52,079 --> 00:40:57,000
we're just banking on the combination of Jalen Clark, Terren

838
00:40:57,039 --> 00:41:00,880
Shannon Junior, and Rob Dillingham, who play like combined five

839
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:04,000
hundred minutes or under a thousand minutes combined last year.

840
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:06,320
That's just gonna You're gonna figure it out from there.

841
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:10,000
Mike Cammy only missed eleven games last year. They also

842
00:41:10,079 --> 00:41:12,480
have this tendency to just play down to the level

843
00:41:12,480 --> 00:41:14,440
of their opponent. You and I talked a lot about

844
00:41:14,519 --> 00:41:17,719
that last year, so I'm going over. But this is

845
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:21,760
a team that on paper I want to be saying, oh,

846
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:26,000
fifty five wins or something, and I just can't get there.

847
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,199
Speaker 2: I started higher. I think initially when I did my

848
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,840
first run through, I was in the fifty four to

849
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:35,800
fifty five, maybe even fifty six range, just and I

850
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:38,360
think on those first passes, I just kind of what

851
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:40,559
are the big issues? And one of them is Anthony

852
00:41:40,639 --> 00:41:43,079
Edwards might just be an MVP, Like I don't know,

853
00:41:43,199 --> 00:41:45,360
like that that's he might. He might level up by

854
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,639
ten percent, and that's all NBA first team caliber, and

855
00:41:49,480 --> 00:41:51,679
that covers over a lot of your other potential problems.

856
00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,280
I do think it matters that de Vincenzo and Randall

857
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,800
didn't just like parachute in right before the season, which

858
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:01,760
was the case last year. So maybe maybe they're the

859
00:42:01,800 --> 00:42:05,320
best versions of themselves from the jump. That should help McDaniels.

860
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:07,920
Everybody pointed out took a quiet step as like a

861
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:12,199
self sufficient shot creator last season. Maybe McDaniels has another

862
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,360
bump up in him. He's always like shockingly young. You know,

863
00:42:16,360 --> 00:42:19,199
it feels like McDaniels has been around for seven, eight,

864
00:42:19,320 --> 00:42:22,280
nine years and he's you know, he's I think he's

865
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,880
at an age where still he could maybe has one

866
00:42:24,960 --> 00:42:30,920
more you know, substantial growth period in him. So and

867
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,000
I think Gobert, I know I've raised the flag, but

868
00:42:33,039 --> 00:42:35,800
I think Gobert should still just be someone that if

869
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:38,280
he's on the floor of your defense, is maybe not

870
00:42:38,360 --> 00:42:40,679
the best in the world, but is like top five

871
00:42:40,840 --> 00:42:43,440
ish just because of what he can do. He's still

872
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,440
gonna hurt your offense, but it is what it is.

873
00:42:45,519 --> 00:42:49,159
So I could see I could see a scenario where

874
00:42:49,199 --> 00:42:52,199
they they and not Denver, are the second best team

875
00:42:52,199 --> 00:42:54,159
in the West and are pushing the Thunder if the

876
00:42:54,199 --> 00:42:56,800
Thunder are kind of coasting and they get into the

877
00:42:56,840 --> 00:42:59,360
high fifties, not I don't What I don't see is

878
00:42:59,400 --> 00:43:02,159
like four to forty five, Like, I just don't know

879
00:43:02,199 --> 00:43:03,000
how that would happen.

880
00:43:03,599 --> 00:43:06,119
Speaker 1: They need to be decimated by the injury bulk, I think.

881
00:43:06,159 --> 00:43:07,679
And I was about to make that same point to

882
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,239
where I think the most popular picks to finish second

883
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:12,920
in the West will probably be some combination of Houston,

884
00:43:13,599 --> 00:43:16,400
Golden State, and Denver. But this feels like a team

885
00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:19,280
that doesn't receive enough consideration there. Yeah, I say all this,

886
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:21,360
and I'm I'm like, oh, they're at fifty, but I

887
00:43:21,440 --> 00:43:24,239
have I think I have a three teams just at

888
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:27,440
fifty Warriors Minnesota, and it's just the West is so

889
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:30,079
and to be fair, when you look at the standings

890
00:43:30,079 --> 00:43:31,920
from last year, like that's kind of just what happens

891
00:43:31,920 --> 00:43:34,199
in the West is that these teams are separated by

892
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,599
like just a couple of wins. If that yep, our

893
00:43:37,679 --> 00:43:40,000
next team, grant, who do we have? Or it's mine?

894
00:43:40,079 --> 00:43:43,960
Oh god, you're New Orleans Pelicans thirty one and a half.

895
00:43:44,280 --> 00:43:45,840
I looked at this number, and you know what I

896
00:43:45,880 --> 00:43:48,519
thought would generous? I didn't know the Pelicans were a

897
00:43:48,559 --> 00:43:49,119
public team.

898
00:43:49,559 --> 00:43:52,559
Speaker 2: Can I make the devil's advocate case here?

899
00:43:53,119 --> 00:43:54,880
Speaker 1: Like what I won't listen to it? Put your feels

900
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:55,519
good to go ahead.

901
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:59,679
Speaker 2: I'm trying, well, I'm trying to talk myself into it

902
00:43:59,679 --> 00:44:01,599
a little little bit because thirty one and a half

903
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,320
is a low number for a team that doesn't have

904
00:44:03,360 --> 00:44:05,599
its pick right, Like, there's not a steer into the

905
00:44:05,639 --> 00:44:11,039
skid capacity for the They opted out of maximizing the

906
00:44:11,079 --> 00:44:13,800
payoff for losing a bunch of games. So that's one thing,

907
00:44:13,840 --> 00:44:16,639
like there's not going to be a purposeful tank. The

908
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:20,000
other thing is isn't a lineup of what's it going

909
00:44:20,079 --> 00:44:24,760
to be Jordan Poole, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Zion and

910
00:44:25,119 --> 00:44:27,679
center of your choice who will be bad. But those

911
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:30,599
four guys like that offense should be good, shouldn't it.

912
00:44:31,159 --> 00:44:33,039
The defense is going to be terrible. But isn't there

913
00:44:33,039 --> 00:44:36,639
a way where this offense is and maybe Dejonay Murray

914
00:44:36,639 --> 00:44:38,760
comes back, you know, at some point and he's a

915
00:44:38,800 --> 00:44:42,760
helpful player. Couldn't this offense be a top ten offense? Like,

916
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,920
isn't that a possibility? And then to get under if

917
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:49,280
that is what happens, their defense has to be bottom five,

918
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,679
which probably it will be. But even then you're like

919
00:44:51,800 --> 00:44:55,239
thirty seven thirty six wins. Just if you're thinking of

920
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,480
like where they fall in the offense and defense rankings,

921
00:44:57,639 --> 00:45:00,320
that is why is that not going to happen?

922
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,679
Speaker 1: For them to be a top ten offense? Zion needs

923
00:45:04,719 --> 00:45:06,960
to play in sixty five plus games and the other

924
00:45:07,159 --> 00:45:10,559
thing given across the board, right, But I would say

925
00:45:10,559 --> 00:45:14,199
even if he does, don't you expect there to be

926
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:17,519
some level just given the long term equity they have

927
00:45:17,599 --> 00:45:22,719
invested in them, of dependence on Jeremiah Fears, Derek Queen,

928
00:45:23,079 --> 00:45:25,280
and that there will be growing pains there you also

929
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:26,679
kind of said it. I might be a little bit

930
00:45:26,760 --> 00:45:29,880
higher on Eves Mesi than you. Kevon Looney's already injured.

931
00:45:30,199 --> 00:45:32,760
This is one of the worst center rotations in the

932
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:36,280
NBA overall. If the Charlotte Hornets didn't exist, this center rotation.

933
00:45:36,679 --> 00:45:38,400
I really like Eves mecI, but there's a chance he

934
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,239
look back and say, like, oh man, the Celtics center

935
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:43,519
rotation was better than the Pelicans this past year, and

936
00:45:43,559 --> 00:45:46,920
so yeah, to your point, I think they can get

937
00:45:47,199 --> 00:45:52,400
to some solid, like top end lineups. But I just

938
00:45:52,599 --> 00:45:54,519
you know, what did Jehanne Murray look like then when

939
00:45:54,519 --> 00:45:58,400
he's coming back. I'm not to spoil here. I went under,

940
00:45:58,920 --> 00:46:02,079
you ended up going with. You went under as well.

941
00:46:02,159 --> 00:46:04,079
You went twenty nine and fifty three. I went twenty

942
00:46:04,079 --> 00:46:06,239
three and fifty nine. The reason I'm so low on

943
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:09,880
the Pelicans I love Zion, but I think that even

944
00:46:09,920 --> 00:46:13,239
if he plays, this team is just so disconnected from

945
00:46:13,280 --> 00:46:16,480
reality relative to the rest of their Western Conference that

946
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:18,440
it's really not gonna matter. And maybe I'm not giving

947
00:46:18,480 --> 00:46:20,920
him enough credit, but I just look at this Pelicans

948
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:23,519
team as okay, cool, they could have like a top

949
00:46:23,559 --> 00:46:26,000
twelve offense. I don't like, how many games is not

950
00:46:26,039 --> 00:46:28,239
gonna get you in the Western Conference? The thirty one

951
00:46:28,280 --> 00:46:30,519
and a half is maybe I'm too low at twenty

952
00:46:30,559 --> 00:46:33,280
three and this was a team they haven't moved. When

953
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:34,920
I first went through my records, I just put in

954
00:46:34,960 --> 00:46:37,760
twenty three for them. I assume that they're over under

955
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:39,960
was going to be in the twenties. I know they're

956
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:41,960
not trying to tank. I just don't what are the

957
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:45,800
teams they're gonna let's do this, which teams are they

958
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:49,320
gonna be favored to beat in the Western Conference.

959
00:46:49,079 --> 00:46:52,639
Speaker 2: On the road road and maybe not even Utah if

960
00:46:52,639 --> 00:46:53,320
it's on the road.

961
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:57,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, And I can't again, and when you do think

962
00:46:57,280 --> 00:46:59,760
about like Trey Murphy's dealt with some injury stuff, her

963
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,639
Joe what's coming back from was that the shoulder thing

964
00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:04,039
last year. He's just really good and so maybe they're

965
00:47:04,079 --> 00:47:08,400
able in his minutes. Murphy gets better, Jose Alvarado, maybe

966
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:10,360
the defense could be a little bit better than expected.

967
00:47:10,400 --> 00:47:12,800
And I feel like Willy Green's had moments where he's

968
00:47:13,159 --> 00:47:16,760
like coach, like helped them punched above their weight defensively.

969
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:21,280
This team is just, honestly, if if the Kings didn't exist,

970
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,400
this would be the saddest team in the Western Conference.

971
00:47:23,599 --> 00:47:26,760
Speaker 2: It may still be. Honestly, I think like I wish

972
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:28,519
I had gone as low as you did, because then

973
00:47:28,519 --> 00:47:30,199
I would have had a handful of more wins to

974
00:47:30,239 --> 00:47:32,880
distribute to like Portland and San Antonio, who I like

975
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:35,119
a lot. But as we'll get to, I just I

976
00:47:35,159 --> 00:47:39,800
couldn't give him enough wins to reflect that, Yeah, the

977
00:47:41,159 --> 00:47:43,480
you've got Willy Green that has got how hot is

978
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:47,079
his seat? Like I mean maybe they just who.

979
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 1: Cares this roster? What needs to happen?

980
00:47:49,639 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 2: This is the thing that you're You're so right, And

981
00:47:52,039 --> 00:47:54,880
when you pointed out the fears and Queen element of

982
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:59,119
it all, like I get it, Like in this in

983
00:47:59,159 --> 00:48:02,159
reality they couldn't have gotten. They probably were ways they

984
00:48:02,159 --> 00:48:04,159
couldn't have had both of those guys and also kept

985
00:48:04,199 --> 00:48:06,360
their first their twenty six first round pick because they

986
00:48:06,360 --> 00:48:08,239
needed to use it to get Queen because they couldn't

987
00:48:08,239 --> 00:48:10,960
take them at seven for whatever reason, and they believed

988
00:48:10,960 --> 00:48:16,440
in fears Like this makes this team makes so much

989
00:48:16,519 --> 00:48:20,320
more sense and like its priorities align so much more cleanly,

990
00:48:20,639 --> 00:48:23,079
and you can see not a vision, but at least

991
00:48:23,079 --> 00:48:25,079
like a semblance of a plan. If they just have

992
00:48:25,159 --> 00:48:27,280
that pick because then you can play Queen and Fai

993
00:48:27,400 --> 00:48:30,480
and Fears all you want and they'll sabotage everything. But

994
00:48:30,519 --> 00:48:33,280
guess what, you might win the lottery and that's that's cool.

995
00:48:33,840 --> 00:48:36,719
Like that you continue to build that way to not

996
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:40,079
have that safety net. That's part of the reason I

997
00:48:40,079 --> 00:48:42,079
went to twenty nine. Even though I think this team

998
00:48:42,119 --> 00:48:42,639
is a mess.

999
00:48:42,679 --> 00:48:43,800
Speaker 1: It's just like I couldn't.

1000
00:48:44,440 --> 00:48:45,119
Speaker 2: I couldn't do it.

1001
00:48:45,159 --> 00:48:45,679
Speaker 1: I like I.

1002
00:48:45,960 --> 00:48:48,639
Speaker 2: I just think they're And the worst part is maybe

1003
00:48:48,639 --> 00:48:51,000
they don't play those rookies as much as they otherwise

1004
00:48:51,039 --> 00:48:54,119
would because there's not that lottery payoff. Like it we

1005
00:48:54,159 --> 00:48:56,159
should just move on because it's we're only going to

1006
00:48:56,199 --> 00:48:57,119
pile on here.

1007
00:48:57,519 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 1: I do. I I think, what if I just played

1008
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:03,400
in seventy five games? If I told you that right now,

1009
00:49:03,519 --> 00:49:04,559
would you go over.

1010
00:49:05,119 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 2: Uh, seventy five? Maybe? Yeah, they could get to thirty

1011
00:49:10,360 --> 00:49:12,880
two wins if he plays seventy five games, I might

1012
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:13,599
do that.

1013
00:49:13,599 --> 00:49:15,360
Speaker 1: That's ending on a high note. I think Zion Williams

1014
00:49:15,480 --> 00:49:18,519
is a fantastic basketball player. There you go, we are

1015
00:49:18,559 --> 00:49:22,880
onto the Oklahoma City thunder grant. What are they're over

1016
00:49:23,000 --> 00:49:23,760
under vitals?

1017
00:49:23,880 --> 00:49:26,199
Speaker 2: It's sixty two and a half, and that is after

1018
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:31,159
sixty eight wins last year, basically guaranteed to have the

1019
00:49:31,159 --> 00:49:35,119
best defense in the league. Super deep, everyone that matters

1020
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:38,000
will be at least as good can be at least

1021
00:49:38,039 --> 00:49:40,960
as good or better. There are no like decliners here,

1022
00:49:41,039 --> 00:49:43,039
unless you think Alex Caruso is going to fall off

1023
00:49:43,199 --> 00:49:49,800
because playing thirty Yeah there, so yeah, right, even if

1024
00:49:49,840 --> 00:49:51,480
there were guys that are going to fall off, all

1025
00:49:51,480 --> 00:49:53,880
these other players, like you just play Aaron Wiggins and

1026
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:58,760
Isaiah Joemore and you probably offset that the offense should

1027
00:49:58,760 --> 00:50:01,679
be better because that's that's like the one thing they've

1028
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:03,880
had to try to tweak and improve on after the

1029
00:50:03,920 --> 00:50:07,360
title run. So this this is talk about a case

1030
00:50:07,400 --> 00:50:09,400
of like how many games do they want to win?

1031
00:50:09,719 --> 00:50:12,239
This is that team, right, because they could push, They

1032
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:14,559
could go for the all time wins record. They set

1033
00:50:14,599 --> 00:50:18,119
the all time point differential record last season, so they

1034
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,280
sure they could push for seventy. They could just also

1035
00:50:21,920 --> 00:50:24,679
look behind them in the standings and decide, we just

1036
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,440
need to be one game better than whoever that is

1037
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:32,639
Denver and just chill like play as basically, have none

1038
00:50:32,639 --> 00:50:35,880
of our three best players qualify for awards because we

1039
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,079
don't care. We're just trying to repeat like that's on

1040
00:50:38,119 --> 00:50:39,079
the table too.

1041
00:50:45,800 --> 00:50:50,000
Speaker 1: That's the best bet. Sound. I went hard over at

1042
00:50:50,039 --> 00:50:52,880
sixty five wins. And I'm even nervous about that because

1043
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:56,800
I think what you just said, maybe they don't play Shay,

1044
00:50:57,039 --> 00:50:59,519
Jaylen Williams and Chet Holmern in sixty five games one,

1045
00:51:00,079 --> 00:51:02,960
that'd be fucked up given the incentives that are tied

1046
00:51:03,039 --> 00:51:07,639
to Jensubs contractor if they can't two. I still think

1047
00:51:07,679 --> 00:51:09,320
that if they played it, if they all played in

1048
00:51:09,360 --> 00:51:11,960
sixty four or something. We just saw it. How many

1049
00:51:11,960 --> 00:51:14,760
games of Chet Hong hm playing last year? The thunder

1050
00:51:15,079 --> 00:51:18,840
per b Ball Indecks were top five in value loss

1051
00:51:18,880 --> 00:51:22,480
to injuries last year and they won sixty eight games.

1052
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:24,840
Speaker 2: That's dumb. What a dumb stat.

1053
00:51:25,039 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 1: That's so you're right, that's dumb. I'm I'm wondering if

1054
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:30,480
I'm too low. And look, Shay's out here saying that

1055
00:51:30,519 --> 00:51:33,079
he doesn't want to play that long in his career,

1056
00:51:33,079 --> 00:51:35,079
So what's he saving himself for. They might go you

1057
00:51:35,119 --> 00:51:38,400
mentioned seventy, they might go for seventy, seventy three, seventy four.

1058
00:51:39,079 --> 00:51:41,880
I And look, I do think that they're at a

1059
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,519
point where they will be more concerned with the postseason.

1060
00:51:44,559 --> 00:51:46,760
And they have younger guys on this team. When Nicole

1061
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:50,519
Topic is healthy, Brooks Barnheiser, even aj Mitchell, Cason Walsh,

1062
00:51:50,559 --> 00:51:52,559
you want to get them more reps. Some of those

1063
00:51:52,559 --> 00:51:55,239
guys like Kaseon Walsh might be so good that Yeah,

1064
00:51:55,320 --> 00:51:57,480
sure that might help your team for all we know.

1065
00:51:58,159 --> 00:52:01,360
I have a very tough time see this team winning

1066
00:52:01,400 --> 00:52:03,440
fewer than sixty five. I feel like I am being

1067
00:52:03,519 --> 00:52:05,800
conservative by putting them at sixty five.

1068
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,599
Speaker 2: And how do you feel? How do you think? How

1069
00:52:08,639 --> 00:52:13,280
do you think I feel? I went under the mile?

1070
00:52:13,679 --> 00:52:15,679
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was shocked. You went under. I just gid,

1071
00:52:15,679 --> 00:52:18,440
you're really sixty two? You really just like the thunder?

1072
00:52:18,480 --> 00:52:19,719
So why do you have them in the play? In?

1073
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,039
Speaker 2: God? They're gonna suck, aren't they. I just it's they

1074
00:52:23,199 --> 00:52:23,880
just Adam.

1075
00:52:23,679 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 1: Flagler and free agency.

1076
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:28,000
Speaker 2: This is rough, rutal to the Thomas Sorber injury. Just

1077
00:52:28,039 --> 00:52:29,559
really took me out of it. Uh.

1078
00:52:29,760 --> 00:52:32,119
Speaker 1: The Dylan Jones trade. How are they gonna Jones trade?

1079
00:52:32,159 --> 00:52:36,519
Speaker 2: I was a big Dylan Jones guy. Uh, sixty two,

1080
00:52:36,800 --> 00:52:40,519
So sixty three if you're going over like do of course?

1081
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,639
I just made the case like they could win seventy plus.

1082
00:52:43,800 --> 00:52:46,880
I I just that's such a high number. If I'm

1083
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,199
trying to win this, I think I need to go

1084
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:52,719
under one because I'm sure everyone's going over and you

1085
00:52:52,719 --> 00:52:54,519
can still be by far the best team in the

1086
00:52:54,599 --> 00:52:57,559
league with this under. So like I don't know, I

1087
00:52:58,000 --> 00:53:01,400
I just I factored in all of the like post title,

1088
00:53:01,480 --> 00:53:05,000
let's relax, jadub starting with the you know, maybe not

1089
00:53:05,039 --> 00:53:08,920
one hundred percent, CHET might miss time like all that stuff.

1090
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,239
Like I go under, and I acknowledge fully that they

1091
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:15,280
could beat beat sixty two by ten wins. They could

1092
00:53:15,360 --> 00:53:16,480
easily win seventy two.

1093
00:53:18,000 --> 00:53:23,320
Speaker 1: I just look big. Jalen Williams is taking like twelve

1094
00:53:23,360 --> 00:53:25,760
threes per thirty six minutes in the preseason and making

1095
00:53:25,800 --> 00:53:27,840
them at a forty plus percent clip. This team is

1096
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:32,360
just so unbelievably stacked. This was the I didn't think

1097
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:34,760
about this one for a second. Oh, I guess if

1098
00:53:34,760 --> 00:53:37,559
you were to make a more compelling argument to me,

1099
00:53:38,039 --> 00:53:40,320
But I think it applies to too many of the teams.

1100
00:53:40,480 --> 00:53:43,400
But maybe not is they do feel like if you

1101
00:53:43,559 --> 00:53:45,960
ripped Shay, if something happened to him off this roster

1102
00:53:46,079 --> 00:53:48,159
for X amount of games, he's only playing in forty

1103
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:52,079
or something, does their offense survive? And you could say

1104
00:53:52,079 --> 00:53:55,440
that about Denver, But after that Houston, is there any

1105
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:58,480
one player that they can't lose? The Lakers, I guess

1106
00:53:58,519 --> 00:54:01,519
it's Luca Dallas doesn't have that one player. The Clippers,

1107
00:54:01,519 --> 00:54:04,239
to me don't really I guess Harden. But you could

1108
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:06,440
still figure out ways so that level of dependence on she.

1109
00:54:06,920 --> 00:54:09,519
But then I would counter with J. Dub is just

1110
00:54:09,559 --> 00:54:12,719
gonna get better. Chet is like what he's due for

1111
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,039
a healthy season, right, he goes every other now so

1112
00:54:15,199 --> 00:54:18,760
and he's going to get better. I if they hit,

1113
00:54:18,840 --> 00:54:21,719
if they go to the under, I'm gonna be very

1114
00:54:21,760 --> 00:54:23,960
curious to see why will be what you laid out

1115
00:54:23,960 --> 00:54:25,599
where it's sort of they're gonna be in chill mode.

1116
00:54:25,639 --> 00:54:28,519
Maybe there's games where maybe they have Shay Chet and

1117
00:54:28,599 --> 00:54:32,199
JDub all playing exactly sixty five games and just arresting

1118
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:35,599
them constantly. Even then, no, man, I might still pick

1119
00:54:35,679 --> 00:54:37,519
them to win sixty plus. I'm not gonna lie.

1120
00:54:37,639 --> 00:54:39,800
Speaker 2: I just want to say I have them with six

1121
00:54:39,840 --> 00:54:43,360
more wins than any other team. So thereby I just

1122
00:54:43,440 --> 00:54:46,800
sid so low. Why do you hate the thunder? Why

1123
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,880
don't you believe in him. That's that's a bigger gap

1124
00:54:49,880 --> 00:54:54,119
than I have between the Caves at fifty six and

1125
00:54:54,679 --> 00:54:57,440
the Rockets at fifty two. So just like you know,

1126
00:54:57,480 --> 00:54:59,320
they're the best team in the league. It's not close.

1127
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:02,599
I just like to like to be a little controversial.

1128
00:55:02,639 --> 00:55:06,599
Speaker 1: I guess feel free to docs Grant for his terrible thundertakes.

1129
00:55:06,639 --> 00:55:10,079
We support it. Who is next? Oh god, I don't

1130
00:55:10,119 --> 00:55:10,440
want to do it.

1131
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:14,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Phoenix Suns have an over under of thirty

1132
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:18,760
one and a half wins, but what was Is that

1133
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:20,400
the same as the Pelicans? It is right, I think

1134
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:24,559
they were thirty one and a half. Devin Booker is

1135
00:55:24,559 --> 00:55:27,119
a point guard. Now, I know you've always been, and

1136
00:55:27,159 --> 00:55:29,760
I think it's not wrong to say, you know of

1137
00:55:29,800 --> 00:55:32,880
the mind that Devin Booker really is like skill wise,

1138
00:55:33,360 --> 00:55:35,199
about as good as you can do as a wing

1139
00:55:35,280 --> 00:55:38,320
facilitator or shooting guard who does point guard stuff. He's

1140
00:55:38,360 --> 00:55:41,639
had some seven assists seasons. I would counter with still

1141
00:55:41,679 --> 00:55:44,440
not a point guard. And also maybe you're taking away

1142
00:55:44,440 --> 00:55:45,960
from some of the other stuff he's great at. If

1143
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,840
he has to do that, Jalen Green's already hurt. He's

1144
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:51,719
like your other co point guard. I guess so unless

1145
00:55:51,760 --> 00:55:54,039
you believe very strongly in Colin Gillespie, who was on

1146
00:55:54,039 --> 00:55:56,920
a two way last year, or Jared Butler who had

1147
00:55:56,960 --> 00:56:00,599
some nice preseason moments but is like a journeyman, what

1148
00:56:00,880 --> 00:56:03,880
five years into his NBA career? There's not a point

1149
00:56:03,920 --> 00:56:07,960
guard on this team? Does that matter? Uh? I guess uh?

1150
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:11,519
Based on my really, I'm gonna say yes, just a

1151
00:56:11,519 --> 00:56:15,679
little bit. What So there are some strengths on this

1152
00:56:15,760 --> 00:56:19,639
team right Like there, their wings can defend. Uh, they

1153
00:56:19,679 --> 00:56:21,599
have a lot of centers. I don't know if any

1154
00:56:21,639 --> 00:56:23,079
of them are gonna be any good.

1155
00:56:23,320 --> 00:56:25,840
Speaker 1: Two dollars hot dogs.

1156
00:56:25,920 --> 00:56:29,079
Speaker 2: You can't can't get too far without mentioning that we're

1157
00:56:29,119 --> 00:56:31,239
both under. You're at twenty seven wins. I'm at twenty

1158
00:56:31,280 --> 00:56:35,199
eight wins? Is that obviously that's what we think is

1159
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:38,360
gonna happen. But like, are we too? Are we not

1160
00:56:38,440 --> 00:56:42,000
doing a good enough job of divorcing the Sun's general

1161
00:56:42,239 --> 00:56:48,119
like transactional nonsense and mismanagement and the ishia stupidity of

1162
00:56:48,159 --> 00:56:50,639
it all. Are we not splitting that off from the

1163
00:56:50,679 --> 00:56:53,519
actual roster enough? Because that's what my concern was when

1164
00:56:53,559 --> 00:56:54,519
I was like easy under.

1165
00:56:55,400 --> 00:56:58,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a good point because what we could say

1166
00:56:58,920 --> 00:57:01,360
is that there needs to be more distance between them

1167
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:04,320
and the Pelicans and the Jazz because by putting them

1168
00:57:04,360 --> 00:57:06,480
a twenty seven wins twenty eight wins, you're kind of

1169
00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:10,000
shoehorning them into that tier of team at the Western Conference.

1170
00:57:10,000 --> 00:57:12,639
And could you also say, well, Devin Booker, for the

1171
00:57:12,639 --> 00:57:14,760
most part fairly durable. You said, they have a bunch

1172
00:57:14,800 --> 00:57:17,320
of wings that could defend common model. Watch looks like

1173
00:57:17,360 --> 00:57:19,960
he has more offensive skills just based off preseason than

1174
00:57:20,000 --> 00:57:23,880
I had seen in Summer league or just knew about him. Like,

1175
00:57:24,079 --> 00:57:25,519
are they a team that could be better than the

1176
00:57:25,519 --> 00:57:29,119
Blazers or the Kings? Then potentially, And so it does

1177
00:57:29,159 --> 00:57:33,280
feel there is some flexibility here, But I also don't

1178
00:57:34,079 --> 00:57:36,760
like that, Like what are you what do you trust

1179
00:57:37,239 --> 00:57:39,559
about this team? You mentioned that there is strengths, but like,

1180
00:57:39,559 --> 00:57:41,079
what is the strength that you look at and you

1181
00:57:41,519 --> 00:57:45,800
absolutely trust it? I don't. I don't have one necessarily, Okay, cool,

1182
00:57:45,800 --> 00:57:47,760
They have a lot of versatile players on defense, but

1183
00:57:48,199 --> 00:57:52,679
do Ryan Dunn, Dylan Brooks your big man rotation? Is

1184
00:57:52,719 --> 00:57:56,559
that enough to anchor what a top twelve defense? Which

1185
00:57:56,559 --> 00:57:58,159
is probably what you need to make sure that you

1186
00:57:58,239 --> 00:58:00,519
get into the thirties if your offense isn't going to

1187
00:58:00,519 --> 00:58:00,920
be great.

1188
00:58:01,239 --> 00:58:01,440
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1189
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:03,280
Speaker 1: Maybe, as you said at the top two, is Devin

1190
00:58:03,320 --> 00:58:06,559
Booker just so good that he uplifts. But I think

1191
00:58:06,679 --> 00:58:08,960
when it comes to the development of the bigs, you're

1192
00:58:08,960 --> 00:58:11,079
almost putting him in jail and Green at a disservice

1193
00:58:11,119 --> 00:58:13,239
by considering them point guards, because they're not always going

1194
00:58:13,280 --> 00:58:15,159
to deliver the ball in the ways that I would

1195
00:58:15,199 --> 00:58:18,079
say most of their bigs would want. Again, Malawatch, I'm

1196
00:58:18,079 --> 00:58:19,679
officially a little bit more interested in it feels like

1197
00:58:19,679 --> 00:58:21,159
he could give him the ball like a little higher

1198
00:58:21,239 --> 00:58:24,039
up on the floor. So we'll see. There's just too

1199
00:58:24,079 --> 00:58:28,840
many question marks and not enough definitive strengths on this

1200
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:30,559
roster for me to think that they're going to be

1201
00:58:30,599 --> 00:58:31,320
into the thirties.

1202
00:58:31,519 --> 00:58:34,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's hypothetical strengths, right, Like Mark Williams stays healthy

1203
00:58:34,719 --> 00:58:38,119
and he is the fifteenth best center in the league, right, Like,

1204
00:58:38,159 --> 00:58:40,960
that's okay, that'd be one way to crack thirty. I

1205
00:58:40,960 --> 00:58:44,400
would say. The thing that really gives me some pause

1206
00:58:44,599 --> 00:58:47,760
is we've seen Devin Booker be very very good on

1207
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,519
very very bad Sons teams in the past, Like the

1208
00:58:50,559 --> 00:58:53,559
first stretch of his career. He's a better player than that,

1209
00:58:53,639 --> 00:58:55,719
but he was like a twenty seven and seven guy

1210
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:58,760
on a Sons team that won in the twenties. Like

1211
00:58:58,800 --> 00:59:02,639
that's kind of know what that looks like. So he

1212
00:59:02,679 --> 00:59:05,400
could be great and it may not matter just because

1213
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:09,199
you're just there's too many situations where like, okay, let's

1214
00:59:09,239 --> 00:59:12,679
play let's play booker Jalen Green and Grayson Allen, so

1215
00:59:12,719 --> 00:59:15,760
we get spacing or whatever, and like, all right, your

1216
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:17,760
defense is real bad now, so we'll have to put

1217
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:19,840
Dylan Brooks and Ryan Dunn out there. It's like, well, now,

1218
00:59:19,880 --> 00:59:23,239
there's just too many one way guys. There's not enough.

1219
00:59:23,280 --> 00:59:26,679
There's the point guard thing. I just don't understand how

1220
00:59:26,719 --> 00:59:30,159
that's being like not obviously the over unders low, so

1221
00:59:30,480 --> 00:59:33,599
this isn't happening on mass but like that, not enough

1222
00:59:33,679 --> 00:59:35,119
is being made of the fact that they're just gonna

1223
00:59:35,119 --> 00:59:36,960
go into a season with a first year head coach

1224
00:59:37,360 --> 00:59:39,239
and a remade roster that doesn't have a real point

1225
00:59:39,239 --> 00:59:42,519
guard on it. Like that, I know, like positionlessness is

1226
00:59:42,519 --> 00:59:45,480
the whole thing, and like, well, you need good decision

1227
00:59:45,480 --> 00:59:47,960
makers and guys who can move and pastor will shoot

1228
00:59:48,000 --> 00:59:49,880
at every position you want them to have size, like

1229
00:59:50,360 --> 00:59:52,559
you still need somebody to just run the show, Like

1230
00:59:52,599 --> 00:59:54,840
it can't just be Devin Booker. Nobody wants that. That

1231
00:59:54,840 --> 00:59:55,960
doesn't make anybody better.

1232
00:59:56,400 --> 00:59:59,679
Speaker 1: And I think, what's another interesting thing here, or at

1233
00:59:59,760 --> 01:00:03,519
least a potential subplot They they're not They don't control

1234
01:00:03,559 --> 01:00:05,119
the fate of their own pick, and so there's no

1235
01:00:05,199 --> 01:00:08,440
incentive to tank. But have you now entered just the

1236
01:00:08,559 --> 01:00:12,320
part of fuckedness where it's well, you have to operate

1237
01:00:12,400 --> 01:00:15,280
independent of that, to where if it doesn't look like

1238
01:00:15,280 --> 01:00:17,440
you're gonna do more than conten for an eleven seed,

1239
01:00:18,000 --> 01:00:20,280
why not give Devin Booker some rest to close the season?

1240
01:00:20,480 --> 01:00:23,719
Or is it do they start looking at, oh, trading

1241
01:00:23,760 --> 01:00:26,480
Dylan Brooks there's another team that's injured or things that

1242
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:28,360
they need a defensive punch and maybe Dylan Brooks has

1243
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:30,239
played pretty well in it hit in his threes. Yep,

1244
01:00:30,599 --> 01:00:32,440
that you're gonna trade them to Bracouf first or not

1245
01:00:32,480 --> 01:00:35,559
quily because they are still they're planning for the future.

1246
01:00:35,639 --> 01:00:38,320
You can't say if they're not planning for the future,

1247
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:41,159
they're at the very least consigned to this being a

1248
01:00:41,199 --> 01:00:44,519
gap year and that they're hoping to do something splashy

1249
01:00:44,599 --> 01:00:47,840
or next summer, and so protect or capitalize on the

1250
01:00:47,840 --> 01:00:50,679
assets that you have. Now. I'm not saying this is

1251
01:00:50,679 --> 01:00:53,719
gonna result in a Devin Booker trade outsco the opposite.

1252
01:00:54,159 --> 01:00:56,679
If the Suns think that next offseason they're gonna be

1253
01:00:56,719 --> 01:00:58,840
able to put together some type of trade package for

1254
01:00:58,880 --> 01:01:01,360
whatever reason, part of that, well, we need to move

1255
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:02,800
some of the guys that are helping us now. I

1256
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,400
think Dylan Brooks would probably be the most likely candidate there,

1257
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,920
just to get more first on equity in and maybe

1258
01:01:07,920 --> 01:01:11,000
increase your flexibility or options on the trade market. I

1259
01:01:11,000 --> 01:01:14,400
don't think we can discount that from happening. And that's

1260
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:16,960
also part of the problem here. Grant to me, we

1261
01:01:17,119 --> 01:01:20,280
can't rule out anything. We could rule out them winning

1262
01:01:20,280 --> 01:01:22,519
fifty games, I think, but we can't rule out them

1263
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:26,039
in terms of their direction. I don't think it's It's

1264
01:01:26,079 --> 01:01:28,199
not the same as where the Brooklyn Nets were at

1265
01:01:28,280 --> 01:01:32,280
after that first all in trade for the Celtics's geriatric stars.

1266
01:01:32,880 --> 01:01:35,760
But your pick equity is in a similar situation to

1267
01:01:35,800 --> 01:01:39,360
where no, you have to operate your team independent of

1268
01:01:39,360 --> 01:01:41,239
where those picks are going right now, because you're not

1269
01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,280
getting them back short of trading Devin Booker, which doesn't

1270
01:01:44,280 --> 01:01:45,960
seem like either side wants to have.

1271
01:01:46,039 --> 01:01:49,039
Speaker 2: Yeah. Right, that's the fix and that the best how

1272
01:01:49,039 --> 01:01:51,719
about this hot take? The best thing that could happen

1273
01:01:51,719 --> 01:01:53,800
to the Suns this year is they trade Devin Booker,

1274
01:01:54,239 --> 01:01:56,400
get as many of their own picks back as possible

1275
01:01:56,400 --> 01:01:59,039
in some other stuff, and then things make sense again

1276
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:02,760
because you can win in the twenties and the it's

1277
01:02:02,840 --> 01:02:04,960
kind of like New Orleans and you'll have something to

1278
01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:05,559
show for it.

1279
01:02:06,119 --> 01:02:08,480
Speaker 1: I do wonder if that's because I would be curious

1280
01:02:08,519 --> 01:02:10,679
how many of your picks are you getting back in

1281
01:02:10,679 --> 01:02:14,440
that scenario, because Devin Booker just as a cultural touchstone

1282
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:17,000
of the organization and someone wants to be there by

1283
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:21,599
all appearances, what are you giving as this ownership regime,

1284
01:02:21,760 --> 01:02:23,960
as this front office with a very little track record.

1285
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,599
I'd just be curious the fan reaction of Maybe some

1286
01:02:26,639 --> 01:02:29,320
of them would appreciate the full tilt rebuild, but I

1287
01:02:29,360 --> 01:02:32,719
almost think if you're gonna get let's say two of

1288
01:02:32,719 --> 01:02:34,760
your next first round picks back, I think fans just

1289
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:37,480
might prefer to ride this out with Devin Booker.

1290
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 2: I think if it were a scenario where you could

1291
01:02:39,880 --> 01:02:42,400
ride as a fan where you could were riding it

1292
01:02:42,440 --> 01:02:44,559
out meant we can tend for a play in spot

1293
01:02:44,760 --> 01:02:46,840
or like maybe you know, things go really well with

1294
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:50,119
the young players we have and we win forty five,

1295
01:02:50,239 --> 01:02:54,039
forty seven whatever, Like we're kind of a slightly better

1296
01:02:54,159 --> 01:02:56,480
version of the Bulls. And by the way, the Bulls

1297
01:02:56,519 --> 01:03:00,880
fans hate that. I think there'd be faction of Suns

1298
01:03:00,920 --> 01:03:03,000
fans that don't care and that don't want to hear

1299
01:03:03,320 --> 01:03:06,119
that maybe don't even know what the actual like situation

1300
01:03:06,239 --> 01:03:08,280
on the ground is with their picks and their long

1301
01:03:08,360 --> 01:03:11,719
term outlook. But I think a fan that is actually

1302
01:03:11,719 --> 01:03:15,639
like paying attention in Phoenix would have to acknowledge we

1303
01:03:15,760 --> 01:03:18,880
can win twenty five to thirty five games through the

1304
01:03:18,880 --> 01:03:21,960
life of Booker's contract, or we can trade Devin Booker

1305
01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:25,239
and you know, within that same timeframe. So say, by

1306
01:03:25,280 --> 01:03:28,119
like twenty thirty, have a team that actually can compete

1307
01:03:28,159 --> 01:03:30,719
for something. I think I would pick the latter. That

1308
01:03:30,800 --> 01:03:32,960
sucks for the interim when you're terrible, but at least

1309
01:03:32,960 --> 01:03:34,639
you're getting something out of it. I don't know. This

1310
01:03:34,719 --> 01:03:36,880
is a debate we always have about like we're so

1311
01:03:36,960 --> 01:03:39,320
quick to say blow it up without thinking about like

1312
01:03:39,360 --> 01:03:42,519
the season ticket holder perspective in Phoenix. So I guess,

1313
01:03:42,559 --> 01:03:45,480
I guess I get it, But there's just there's just

1314
01:03:45,519 --> 01:03:47,719
no hope if you don't if you don't, blow it.

1315
01:03:47,719 --> 01:03:50,559
Speaker 1: Up here, I don't know what the one thing I

1316
01:03:50,480 --> 01:03:53,159
I to quickly agree with. I don't know what the

1317
01:03:53,199 --> 01:03:56,280
path is to them even becoming a top six seed

1318
01:03:56,880 --> 01:03:59,239
in What needs to happen not this season, but let's

1319
01:03:59,239 --> 01:04:02,239
say buy twenty or twenty six, twenty seven. What needs

1320
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:04,519
to happen for them to be a top six team

1321
01:04:04,559 --> 01:04:06,159
in the West. I think, first of all, I think

1322
01:04:06,199 --> 01:04:08,719
a few players need to be abducted by aliens from

1323
01:04:08,719 --> 01:04:09,360
other teams.

1324
01:04:09,440 --> 01:04:11,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, you need the rest of the West of collectively

1325
01:04:11,880 --> 01:04:16,039
fall apart is job one, which, good luck.

1326
01:04:16,920 --> 01:04:19,920
Speaker 1: Our next team is. Oh, not as set we have.

1327
01:04:19,960 --> 01:04:21,679
The Portland was ready to jump to the Kings. I'm

1328
01:04:21,719 --> 01:04:24,920
a masochist. The Portland Travelers at thirty four and a half,

1329
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:27,360
this was tough. I know, it's right around where they

1330
01:04:27,360 --> 01:04:29,400
were last year. So in theory, oh, they traded for

1331
01:04:29,480 --> 01:04:32,760
Drew Holliday. We know Damian Lillard's not going to play

1332
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:34,360
this year, but they should just get better. When you

1333
01:04:34,360 --> 01:04:36,119
look at some of the youth on their team. Some

1334
01:04:36,159 --> 01:04:39,880
people might view DeAndre Eton as additioned by subtraction. Some

1335
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:41,920
people might not agree with that, because now your center

1336
01:04:41,960 --> 01:04:45,320
rotation is very dependent on Donovan Klingen. We love Young Hanson,

1337
01:04:45,440 --> 01:04:48,800
but he's also a rookie. Robert Williams the third. Will

1338
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:53,159
he even play duopreath will solve everything? So damn? But

1339
01:04:53,960 --> 01:04:55,119
was this a hard one for you?

1340
01:04:56,679 --> 01:04:59,800
Speaker 2: Not? Relative to this number? I actually was even higher,

1341
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:03,159
and I'll spoil it. I went with thirty eight wins.

1342
01:05:03,360 --> 01:05:05,440
I had him at thirty nine, and I think in

1343
01:05:05,519 --> 01:05:08,000
the earliest iterations of this I might have been closer

1344
01:05:08,039 --> 01:05:11,679
to five hundred. This defense is going to be really good.

1345
01:05:12,440 --> 01:05:14,760
That's the only thing I'm absolutely certain of, because I

1346
01:05:14,760 --> 01:05:18,400
think Timani Kamara is one of the seven or eight

1347
01:05:18,480 --> 01:05:21,800
best defenders in the league. I think Denny Avdya is

1348
01:05:21,840 --> 01:05:24,320
a very good defender. I think Drew Holliday can still guard.

1349
01:05:24,360 --> 01:05:27,719
They're always going to have size at center. Mattie Steibel,

1350
01:05:28,079 --> 01:05:30,840
who knows how healthy he'll be, but he's super disruptive.

1351
01:05:31,199 --> 01:05:34,400
I'm sure I'm forgetting somebody, but like this team, I

1352
01:05:34,559 --> 01:05:38,039
think can be a top ten defense, and I'd be

1353
01:05:38,159 --> 01:05:43,000
very surprised if they were like below average. So if

1354
01:05:43,000 --> 01:05:45,079
they are below average, then maybe the thirty four and

1355
01:05:45,119 --> 01:05:48,159
a half number is about right. Can they score? That's

1356
01:05:48,239 --> 01:05:49,679
I mean, that's what I'd throw to you, is like,

1357
01:05:49,719 --> 01:05:54,400
what is a Blazers team? Like, what's the way that

1358
01:05:54,480 --> 01:05:59,079
this offense gets to fifteenth? Like? How does that happen?

1359
01:06:00,360 --> 01:06:01,800
Speaker 1: Contents for an all NBA spot?

1360
01:06:02,760 --> 01:06:06,119
Speaker 2: Shade and Sharp becomes like we stop doing the Jalen

1361
01:06:06,119 --> 01:06:08,800
Green comparison because it's like insulting to Shade and Sharp

1362
01:06:09,159 --> 01:06:11,039
at some point, like he becomes that much better.

1363
01:06:11,079 --> 01:06:14,119
Speaker 1: Maybe the offense is what I struggled with here, and

1364
01:06:14,159 --> 01:06:16,719
again this might be me being going back to the

1365
01:06:16,719 --> 01:06:18,519
beginning of this podcast with Dallas and my too long

1366
01:06:18,559 --> 01:06:20,440
one teams where the defense might be elite and the

1367
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:23,599
offense just isn't there from a regular season perspective. We'll

1368
01:06:23,599 --> 01:06:27,800
find out. I suppose I don't see the pathway to

1369
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:31,239
them being even more than twenty what's the way them

1370
01:06:31,320 --> 01:06:34,320
avoiding a bottom ten offense? I was gonna say, they

1371
01:06:34,320 --> 01:06:36,559
feel like they're gonna be in like twenty fifth, twenty

1372
01:06:36,599 --> 01:06:40,000
fourth territory, and that's okay Toamati. Kamara shot the ball

1373
01:06:40,039 --> 01:06:42,599
well last year, but as Jeremy Grant, how much is

1374
01:06:42,599 --> 01:06:45,079
he gonna play? Does he get better? He shot like

1375
01:06:45,199 --> 01:06:47,800
negative percentage inside the arc? Exaggerating of course, but how

1376
01:06:47,880 --> 01:06:50,039
much is he gonna play? Drew Holiday? Does he have

1377
01:06:50,079 --> 01:06:53,079
a bounce back shooting season? When you're looking at there's

1378
01:06:53,079 --> 01:06:54,559
not gonna be as much room for him and move

1379
01:06:54,719 --> 01:06:56,880
inside the arc, And teams aren't gonna like they could

1380
01:06:56,880 --> 01:06:58,800
do whatever. They could defend your Holiday however they want.

1381
01:06:59,079 --> 01:07:01,559
At this point, with the way that the Blazers offense

1382
01:07:01,639 --> 01:07:05,000
is built, I just don't unless Yong. We look back

1383
01:07:05,039 --> 01:07:07,519
and like young Handsome is in the Rookie of the

1384
01:07:07,559 --> 01:07:09,760
Year running and it's because like he has everyone cutting

1385
01:07:09,800 --> 01:07:11,559
around him on offense and he's been able to even

1386
01:07:11,719 --> 01:07:15,079
space the floor from that position. I think that this

1387
01:07:15,199 --> 01:07:18,639
could be like bottom five offensive potential. And maybe that's

1388
01:07:18,719 --> 01:07:21,880
a little extreme because we have some of the like

1389
01:07:22,159 --> 01:07:25,039
where the Wizards and the Jazz and the Nets rank

1390
01:07:25,079 --> 01:07:27,320
when they're not trying to win. So again, perhaps that's

1391
01:07:27,320 --> 01:07:31,320
a little extreme, but the West is tough, and I

1392
01:07:31,400 --> 01:07:35,320
don't like Scoots injury, the hamstring thing. Yeah, what does

1393
01:07:35,360 --> 01:07:37,000
he look like when he's coming back from that? And

1394
01:07:37,039 --> 01:07:40,039
so aside from Denny Avdya. Who are you trusting to

1395
01:07:40,079 --> 01:07:42,719
generate offense for other Okay, it's great that Shaden Sharp

1396
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:46,039
can do a ton off the dribble, or let's say

1397
01:07:46,039 --> 01:07:48,840
his shooting even improves. Let's say his defense improves too,

1398
01:07:48,880 --> 01:07:50,920
but they don't necessarily need him to defend on this team.

1399
01:07:51,239 --> 01:07:54,320
Who do you trust second most after Denny Avid to

1400
01:07:54,360 --> 01:07:56,400
set up shots for anybody else? And by the way,

1401
01:07:56,400 --> 01:07:58,760
the fact that Denny Avdya is the first player that

1402
01:07:58,800 --> 01:08:01,920
we're naming the or is awesome. Oh, we love Danny Avia.

1403
01:08:02,000 --> 01:08:03,639
But that's also part of the issue.

1404
01:08:04,039 --> 01:08:08,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's probably young, handsome, right, it's a well, of

1405
01:08:08,320 --> 01:08:11,280
course it's him. Uh, it's kind of a like holiday,

1406
01:08:11,320 --> 01:08:14,719
I guess even though he already you're conceding that he

1407
01:08:14,800 --> 01:08:17,159
just isn't. I mean, maybe has never been a pure

1408
01:08:17,159 --> 01:08:20,560
point guard, you know, a pure setup guy, and certainly

1409
01:08:20,640 --> 01:08:22,439
isn't at this stage of his career. I think that's

1410
01:08:22,479 --> 01:08:24,680
I think you're right, Like the the shot, that's what

1411
01:08:24,800 --> 01:08:28,439
like for a guy who in two years has pretty

1412
01:08:28,479 --> 01:08:31,199
clearly been like a below replacement level player. The Scoot

1413
01:08:31,239 --> 01:08:34,720
Henderson injury is devastating because one of the ways this

1414
01:08:34,800 --> 01:08:38,399
might have worked offensively is he just has downhill pop

1415
01:08:38,560 --> 01:08:41,800
and he gets you running more and he just that

1416
01:08:41,920 --> 01:08:44,479
generates enough to where you're not a bottom ten offense.

1417
01:08:44,800 --> 01:08:47,479
Even that was an if, right because he's never really

1418
01:08:47,520 --> 01:08:52,199
put together a prolonged stretch of Oh he's a play

1419
01:08:52,239 --> 01:08:55,159
that would make you say, one he's lived up to

1420
01:08:55,199 --> 01:08:58,560
his draft billing, or two he's a driver of really

1421
01:08:58,560 --> 01:09:01,000
good offense like that just has not had happened, not

1422
01:09:01,039 --> 01:09:04,039
to say it can't. But he's starting, you know, behind

1423
01:09:04,119 --> 01:09:07,239
now because of the hamstring. So I think that's that's right.

1424
01:09:07,319 --> 01:09:09,159
Like I still go over. I think the defense will

1425
01:09:09,199 --> 01:09:12,199
be great and there are enough guys that are really

1426
01:09:12,239 --> 01:09:16,039
sharp Avvia Camara, maybe Klingons a little better, maybe young

1427
01:09:16,079 --> 01:09:20,359
Hanson is is it actually makes a difference. Uh, there's

1428
01:09:20,640 --> 01:09:23,319
there's enough guys I think that could improve offensively to

1429
01:09:23,359 --> 01:09:27,039
where the scoring is like passable, and then the defense

1430
01:09:27,119 --> 01:09:30,279
will just be very good. Still not a five hundred team,

1431
01:09:30,399 --> 01:09:33,560
but but I I think Portland is like, this is

1432
01:09:33,600 --> 01:09:36,279
not a team that is anywhere close to the Phoenix

1433
01:09:36,359 --> 01:09:39,199
New Orleans tier things. I think Portland is way better.

1434
01:09:39,199 --> 01:09:40,760
They're they're way better than that.

1435
01:09:41,079 --> 01:09:42,439
Speaker 1: Honestly, if you told me they were going to be

1436
01:09:42,439 --> 01:09:45,640
sixteenth or eighteenth in offense. If that was their floor,

1437
01:09:46,039 --> 01:09:47,720
I probably would put them over five hundred.

1438
01:09:48,079 --> 01:09:50,399
Speaker 2: This is they're right around there right Doing.

1439
01:09:50,199 --> 01:09:52,720
Speaker 1: The records is weird because we're both over and we

1440
01:09:52,800 --> 01:09:55,079
just spent the entire time talking about, well, this is

1441
01:09:55,079 --> 01:09:57,159
why they're only going to get X amount of ways.

1442
01:09:57,239 --> 01:10:00,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm I'm still optimist. I like Portland. I

1443
01:10:00,760 --> 01:10:03,840
just I think they've got they've got a shot at

1444
01:10:03,880 --> 01:10:06,319
being a play in team. Maybe a little better than that.

1445
01:10:06,880 --> 01:10:09,319
But you know, thirty eight feels about It feels like

1446
01:10:09,359 --> 01:10:11,000
a conservative over for me.

1447
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:13,399
Speaker 1: You want to take us to your team.

1448
01:10:13,800 --> 01:10:17,119
Speaker 2: Here we go with the Sacramento Kings added Russell Westbrook

1449
01:10:18,039 --> 01:10:20,399
on a non guaranteed deal that was of course that

1450
01:10:20,439 --> 01:10:23,319
came out after the initial reporting that didn't have a

1451
01:10:23,399 --> 01:10:26,560
number thirty five and a half wins for the Kings.

1452
01:10:28,119 --> 01:10:32,720
In some ways, the key factors are unchanged from last year.

1453
01:10:32,760 --> 01:10:36,319
It's still Sabonis, Levigne DeRozan leading an offense heavy team

1454
01:10:36,399 --> 01:10:40,000
that doesn't fit together. New top executive who did not

1455
01:10:40,119 --> 01:10:42,640
hire the head coach. Maybe price that in for some

1456
01:10:43,560 --> 01:10:46,960
loves Zach Lavine, by the way, I can't get enough

1457
01:10:47,000 --> 01:10:50,560
of him Keegan Murray will start the season hurt, which

1458
01:10:50,600 --> 01:10:53,760
was just like cool. The one player we can't replace

1459
01:10:53,880 --> 01:10:56,640
is now out. So Nee Clifford gonna play a lot

1460
01:10:56,680 --> 01:10:58,479
as a rookie was already gonna play a lot. Now

1461
01:10:58,520 --> 01:11:00,000
really is going to play a lot. Maybe that gets

1462
01:11:00,039 --> 01:11:02,319
Kean Ellis on the floor. Thirty five and a half

1463
01:11:02,359 --> 01:11:05,079
is a low number. They won forty last year and

1464
01:11:05,119 --> 01:11:08,119
are not so far removed from from well above that.

1465
01:11:10,880 --> 01:11:13,720
What are your sources? I don't know if you went

1466
01:11:13,760 --> 01:11:17,079
over or under here, but like what's the what's the positive?

1467
01:11:17,279 --> 01:11:21,119
Like what's the the not best case but realistic explanation

1468
01:11:21,159 --> 01:11:22,520
for how they go over this total?

1469
01:11:23,399 --> 01:11:25,119
Speaker 1: I think that the offense just ends up being so

1470
01:11:25,199 --> 01:11:26,319
good that it's like.

1471
01:11:26,720 --> 01:11:27,880
Speaker 2: The top seven.

1472
01:11:28,319 --> 01:11:30,760
Speaker 1: Maybe it needs to be at the level like light

1473
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:33,520
the Beam Era levels, or at least close to it.

1474
01:11:33,560 --> 01:11:36,720
Which is that possible with the because they have a

1475
01:11:36,720 --> 01:11:38,880
lot of talent, But does it gel together enough for

1476
01:11:38,920 --> 01:11:41,680
you to say, let's say, top five, top seven whatever,

1477
01:11:41,720 --> 01:11:44,000
Like can they have that type of an offense?

1478
01:11:45,840 --> 01:11:48,760
Speaker 2: I mean Dennis Shruder being Brooklyn Nets, Dennis Shrewder would

1479
01:11:48,840 --> 01:11:51,439
be doing a lot of the lifting there. I mean,

1480
01:11:51,439 --> 01:11:57,239
if you just on paper let's say it's shrewder Ellis, Levigne, DeRozan,

1481
01:11:57,319 --> 01:12:02,000
Sabonis is your starting five? Like that's all those guys

1482
01:12:02,039 --> 01:12:04,319
are talented? Right? Like that? That's kind of what to

1483
01:12:04,359 --> 01:12:07,279
your point? What is that offense? How does that offense

1484
01:12:07,319 --> 01:12:11,800
function with with a center that can't space a point guard? No,

1485
01:12:11,800 --> 01:12:14,600
one's that scared of spacing your powerful.

1486
01:12:16,039 --> 01:12:18,520
Speaker 1: Is this? Are we going to do this? Are we

1487
01:12:18,560 --> 01:12:22,640
going to do this? I believe? Isn't he the relentless

1488
01:12:22,640 --> 01:12:24,039
beast of the base line?

1489
01:12:24,439 --> 01:12:28,359
Speaker 2: Yeah? He? The spacing thing is so funny because you

1490
01:12:28,359 --> 01:12:29,960
do get that pushback and it's like, well, if he

1491
01:12:30,000 --> 01:12:34,000
shot more than one every other game, uh, maybe defense would.

1492
01:12:33,880 --> 01:12:36,079
Speaker 1: Wasn't he didn't he have like real volume last year

1493
01:12:36,079 --> 01:12:36,680
though he had.

1494
01:12:36,880 --> 01:12:40,399
Speaker 2: To and change he he whatever it is, It wasn't

1495
01:12:40,439 --> 01:12:43,119
nearly enough for defenses to care because he's just that.

1496
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:45,880
It doesn't it doesn't affect the offense.

1497
01:12:46,560 --> 01:12:49,199
Speaker 1: But at the center position two point two attempts per

1498
01:12:49,239 --> 01:12:52,199
game at a forty clip, you can space.

1499
01:12:53,159 --> 01:12:55,560
Speaker 2: You can't spa No, that's like saying Yonas Valentiunas is

1500
01:12:55,600 --> 01:12:56,079
a spacer.

1501
01:12:56,359 --> 01:12:58,960
Speaker 1: No, has he ever even done that?

1502
01:13:00,000 --> 01:13:03,520
Speaker 2: I don't know. You can't, we can't move forward with

1503
01:13:03,520 --> 01:13:07,399
with you saying Sabonis is a spacing big that.

1504
01:13:07,720 --> 01:13:10,960
Speaker 1: He had gravity. I'm saying that he so.

1505
01:13:10,840 --> 01:13:13,439
Speaker 2: He can he can make that he can make for

1506
01:13:14,199 --> 01:13:17,680
of the two wide open defense doesn't give half a

1507
01:13:17,760 --> 01:13:21,159
ship threes that he takes every game. We agree on that.

1508
01:13:21,319 --> 01:13:26,119
The numbers say that's true. Uh, the defense is just

1509
01:13:26,119 --> 01:13:28,600
gonna be god awful though, like unless you can clone

1510
01:13:28,640 --> 01:13:31,439
Keon Ellis in different sizes and just that's your lineup,

1511
01:13:31,760 --> 01:13:37,760
like DeRozan, Levine Sabone, Like there's there is I don't

1512
01:13:37,760 --> 01:13:43,600
know how this is not a bottom six maybe bottom

1513
01:13:43,640 --> 01:13:45,920
five defense. I don't I don't know how that happens.

1514
01:13:46,000 --> 01:13:47,840
Is that right? Like that's that's just there.

1515
01:13:47,880 --> 01:13:51,479
Speaker 1: If they're really good on the defensive glass and get

1516
01:13:52,279 --> 01:13:56,000
so good, then you get set. Yeah, I could see them.

1517
01:13:56,760 --> 01:13:58,800
It's going to be terrible. It's going to fact that

1518
01:13:59,239 --> 01:14:00,920
you have a ton of all offensive talent, none of

1519
01:14:00,960 --> 01:14:03,800
which is complimentary. And I saw I made a joke.

1520
01:14:03,840 --> 01:14:05,359
I don't remember what it was, because it wasn't good

1521
01:14:05,399 --> 01:14:07,800
when they signed Russell Westbrook and it wasn't about Russell

1522
01:14:07,800 --> 01:14:11,359
Westbrook specifically. It was like the Kings looked like vivek

1523
01:14:11,439 --> 01:14:14,239
round a dve x chat gpt to build a roster

1524
01:14:14,680 --> 01:14:19,520
that looks like vivek round a dv built it, and they.

1525
01:14:18,960 --> 01:14:21,600
Speaker 2: Said, don't hey, that's a good joke. Don't don't sell

1526
01:14:21,600 --> 01:14:22,319
yourself short.

1527
01:14:22,800 --> 01:14:25,840
Speaker 1: It's my whole thing, though, is It's not just that

1528
01:14:26,119 --> 01:14:28,319
this is the reaction to them signing a fifteenth man

1529
01:14:28,399 --> 01:14:32,000
or something. One. If Russell Westbrook is not playing, the

1530
01:14:32,119 --> 01:14:34,880
risk of it becoming a distraction needs to be factored

1531
01:14:34,880 --> 01:14:39,239
into the product here. And two, you just lost one

1532
01:14:39,239 --> 01:14:43,000
of your only wings and your response was to capitalize

1533
01:14:43,000 --> 01:14:46,079
on this month long dollions you've been having with another guard.

1534
01:14:46,479 --> 01:14:49,680
It's not Russell Westbrook specifically. It's the fact that you've

1535
01:14:49,680 --> 01:14:53,560
proceeded to do nothing else to just make your rotation

1536
01:14:53,800 --> 01:14:57,039
or your personnel more coherent. You've punted on backup bigs,

1537
01:14:57,439 --> 01:15:02,000
wings and complimentary offensive talent. All of that's important. The

1538
01:15:02,119 --> 01:15:05,159
least important of that is probably the backup big situation.

1539
01:15:05,239 --> 01:15:08,079
Because you sit here and say, Sabonis, who sucks according

1540
01:15:08,079 --> 01:15:10,399
to Grant, is just gonna play like thirty eight minutes

1541
01:15:10,439 --> 01:15:13,119
a game, and you'll you'll paper over it with whoever

1542
01:15:13,199 --> 01:15:15,680
Isaac Jones. Maybe you get some good minutes from him.

1543
01:15:15,880 --> 01:15:19,359
The ghost of Dariosaich is here as well. I just

1544
01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:22,359
this is this is a joke. This was under before

1545
01:15:23,239 --> 01:15:25,279
Keigan Murray's injury, and now it's I'm not saying that

1546
01:15:25,319 --> 01:15:27,359
he was the sole driving force of winning, but you

1547
01:15:28,079 --> 01:15:32,039
He and Keon Ellis, maybe Neete Clifford are basically your

1548
01:15:32,079 --> 01:15:35,239
lifelines to not being one of the three to seven

1549
01:15:35,279 --> 01:15:37,359
worst defenses in the NBA. And the fact that we

1550
01:15:37,439 --> 01:15:40,399
can't sit here and say that this is clearly a

1551
01:15:40,439 --> 01:15:43,520
top ten offensive team with the talent in place, I

1552
01:15:43,520 --> 01:15:46,520
would guess that I don't think they will lean into

1553
01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:49,359
this by choice, but there's going to be some upheaval

1554
01:15:49,520 --> 01:15:52,520
I would think mid season on this team, and I'm talking, yeah,

1555
01:15:52,520 --> 01:15:56,000
maybe it's Malik Monk gets traded, but does Sabonis get traded.

1556
01:15:56,159 --> 01:15:58,680
They're inevitably just gonna trade Keon Ellis for two second

1557
01:15:58,760 --> 01:16:01,840
round picks that we just know that's gonna happen at

1558
01:16:01,840 --> 01:16:02,319
this point.

1559
01:16:02,199 --> 01:16:05,000
Speaker 2: Right, And whoever gets Kean Ellison that deal will have

1560
01:16:05,039 --> 01:16:08,720
won it in a heist, just because Kean Ellis is

1561
01:16:09,159 --> 01:16:11,960
so the guys you mentioned Murray and Ellis and Clifford,

1562
01:16:12,560 --> 01:16:15,920
those are the only guys that can get you to

1563
01:16:16,119 --> 01:16:20,159
lineups that sort of makes sense, right, that don't just

1564
01:16:20,279 --> 01:16:24,520
grossly over index on like bald Levin is different. Levine's

1565
01:16:24,520 --> 01:16:27,720
a flat out great shooter off just period, great shooter,

1566
01:16:28,199 --> 01:16:30,760
just takes is it kills you in every other way

1567
01:16:30,840 --> 01:16:33,960
that that a player can kill you. But those three

1568
01:16:34,000 --> 01:16:36,840
guys are now down to two and one of them

1569
01:16:36,880 --> 01:16:39,039
is a rookie, And so Clifford can be great and

1570
01:16:39,159 --> 01:16:41,880
experience for a rookie, but like really can he? This

1571
01:16:41,960 --> 01:16:43,800
is what now, this is one of the two guys

1572
01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:46,479
that's gonna hold your team together and make it sort

1573
01:16:46,479 --> 01:16:48,840
of make sense. So, like I agree with you, there

1574
01:16:48,920 --> 01:16:53,239
is gonna be you know, because it's the Kings. You

1575
01:16:53,279 --> 01:16:55,720
can just price it in. There will be like hot

1576
01:16:55,760 --> 01:16:58,199
seat stuff for Doug Christie. There will be trade rumors

1577
01:16:58,199 --> 01:17:00,800
with Levin and DeRozan and Sabonis, probably two of those

1578
01:17:00,800 --> 01:17:03,159
three guys will leak to the media that they the

1579
01:17:03,239 --> 01:17:05,319
chaos in this franchise is too much. I gotta get

1580
01:17:05,319 --> 01:17:08,119
out of here, like they just bank on it. Like

1581
01:17:08,199 --> 01:17:11,720
there will be stuff that happens that is related to

1582
01:17:11,760 --> 01:17:15,680
the basketball product, but also like further undermines the basketball product.

1583
01:17:15,680 --> 01:17:17,239
It's just it's it's a given.

1584
01:17:17,600 --> 01:17:19,760
Speaker 1: And the other thing when you mentioned nee Clifford, And

1585
01:17:19,800 --> 01:17:21,680
even if you want to loop a Devin Carter or

1586
01:17:21,680 --> 01:17:25,520
an Isaac Jones into that, what is the mandate for management?

1587
01:17:25,640 --> 01:17:27,640
So nee Clifford's probably the most he is the most

1588
01:17:27,640 --> 01:17:29,960
important one of those three. But it's if are they

1589
01:17:29,960 --> 01:17:32,680
going to give him the runway to make mistakes? He's

1590
01:17:32,720 --> 01:17:34,159
not going to be as good as he was in

1591
01:17:34,159 --> 01:17:36,840
Summer League through and through At this point, you could

1592
01:17:36,920 --> 01:17:39,159
argue they have no choice but to play him. They

1593
01:17:39,239 --> 01:17:40,960
probably view it as well, like we could go with

1594
01:17:41,079 --> 01:17:43,800
four guards for most of the time. They might be

1595
01:17:43,880 --> 01:17:44,640
like that.

1596
01:17:44,800 --> 01:17:48,479
Speaker 2: Westbrook shrewder Monk, Levine, DeRozan like that. Why not, let's

1597
01:17:48,520 --> 01:17:49,399
just a roasting.

1598
01:17:49,159 --> 01:17:52,880
Speaker 1: Guard in five. Let's just easy, easy under. I honestly think,

1599
01:17:52,960 --> 01:17:55,239
even though they won't have the lowest win total, like

1600
01:17:55,319 --> 01:17:57,399
this just feels like the most impotent team in the.

1601
01:17:57,439 --> 01:18:03,720
Speaker 2: NBA directionless like yeah, they just with yeah, yeah, thirty

1602
01:18:03,720 --> 01:18:05,399
three wins for both of us. This is a pretty

1603
01:18:05,399 --> 01:18:07,840
pretty clear under for me. And the problem is more

1604
01:18:07,840 --> 01:18:10,000
so than some of the other teams with low over unders,

1605
01:18:10,079 --> 01:18:12,880
like they're trying to beat that number, like they you know,

1606
01:18:13,079 --> 01:18:15,279
they're gunning for forty plus.

1607
01:18:15,560 --> 01:18:17,479
Speaker 1: You've got me so fired up I'm ready to pull

1608
01:18:17,680 --> 01:18:20,079
wins from them and give them to the Pelicans. That's

1609
01:18:20,079 --> 01:18:22,319
how fired up you've got me. Right now about the Kings,

1610
01:18:22,800 --> 01:18:23,960
who do we have next grant?

1611
01:18:24,279 --> 01:18:26,880
Speaker 2: We have the San Antonio Spurs coming in with forty

1612
01:18:26,960 --> 01:18:31,439
four and a half for the over under. That's a

1613
01:18:31,520 --> 01:18:35,399
high number just given the general youth here and how

1614
01:18:35,399 --> 01:18:37,479
many minutes will probably go to young guys. One of

1615
01:18:37,479 --> 01:18:39,479
those guys is Wemby, though, so I get it, uh

1616
01:18:40,520 --> 01:18:44,600
like one of those I think I I just think

1617
01:18:44,760 --> 01:18:49,319
you more so than any other player. He messes with

1618
01:18:49,439 --> 01:18:52,119
what the overunder should be because nobody has any idea

1619
01:18:52,199 --> 01:18:55,680
what this season might look like for him, and that

1620
01:18:55,720 --> 01:18:58,119
goes both ways because he had a real serious health

1621
01:18:58,119 --> 01:19:01,840
issue last year that who knows, like, let's fingers cross,

1622
01:19:01,880 --> 01:19:03,840
prayers up it doesn't come back, but if it does,

1623
01:19:03,920 --> 01:19:06,880
then this team is you know, in the thirties if

1624
01:19:06,880 --> 01:19:10,800
it's lucky and if but if he's great, like capital

1625
01:19:10,840 --> 01:19:14,039
g great, like better than the half season last year.

1626
01:19:14,079 --> 01:19:16,920
And you know he is one of those guys that

1627
01:19:16,960 --> 01:19:20,800
in year number three is you know, a top three

1628
01:19:20,880 --> 01:19:23,720
MVP guy runs away with dpo wy like then I

1629
01:19:23,720 --> 01:19:25,880
don't know, they win fifty. This is a hard number

1630
01:19:25,880 --> 01:19:29,000
for me, is what I'm saying. What were your initial thoughts?

1631
01:19:29,520 --> 01:19:32,000
Speaker 1: This is not If I had another best bet to

1632
01:19:32,039 --> 01:19:34,199
give out, this would not be it because I don't.

1633
01:19:34,279 --> 01:19:38,720
I've Everything you said just resonates with me, and it's

1634
01:19:39,119 --> 01:19:41,520
I've seen people. The thing that I will push back

1635
01:19:41,560 --> 01:19:43,560
against is the fact that we're kind of there's so

1636
01:19:43,560 --> 01:19:45,600
many people that are just penciling them in from the Wembeople.

1637
01:19:45,640 --> 01:19:47,479
Oh yeah, like they'll be at forty eight, forty nine,

1638
01:19:47,520 --> 01:19:49,840
they could be a fringe contender. They'll definitely be top six.

1639
01:19:50,399 --> 01:19:53,119
I don't even mean this as an insult to the Spurs.

1640
01:19:53,520 --> 01:19:55,920
Have you looked at the rest of the Western Conference?

1641
01:19:56,199 --> 01:19:56,399
Speaker 2: Right?

1642
01:19:57,039 --> 01:20:00,479
Speaker 1: And the other thing too is what is the level

1643
01:20:00,520 --> 01:20:03,479
of dependence when they're all healthy? Like, how does the

1644
01:20:03,479 --> 01:20:09,239
Steph Castle, Dylan Harper, Dearn Fox dynamic all work? I like,

1645
01:20:09,279 --> 01:20:11,279
we don't know. I love like the Luke Cornett signing

1646
01:20:11,319 --> 01:20:13,479
looks like it's gonna be spectacular. Him and Wemby already

1647
01:20:13,479 --> 01:20:16,279
have a chemistry. They won the minutes with Wembenyama on

1648
01:20:16,319 --> 01:20:18,000
the court last year, and so if he plays in

1649
01:20:18,239 --> 01:20:20,279
what are you playing as a rookie seventy one. If

1650
01:20:20,279 --> 01:20:22,279
he just plays in seventy one games again and you're

1651
01:20:22,319 --> 01:20:25,520
getting thirty plus minutes of we are winning those minutes.

1652
01:20:26,039 --> 01:20:28,880
Their ceiling is the ceiling is the roof. As Michael

1653
01:20:28,920 --> 01:20:32,079
Jordan might say, sure this was hard for me. I

1654
01:20:32,119 --> 01:20:34,960
did ultimately though, I went under and I'm not one

1655
01:20:35,000 --> 01:20:36,840
of the people that are. You know, there's a Victor

1656
01:20:36,880 --> 01:20:39,279
wembnyam a health risk. I'm at forty one and forty

1657
01:20:39,319 --> 01:20:42,319
one improvement over last year. I just don't know how

1658
01:20:42,399 --> 01:20:45,600
all these pieces fit together. I think the wing spots

1659
01:20:45,800 --> 01:20:47,840
are a little shaky. A lot of their best floor

1660
01:20:47,880 --> 01:20:51,279
spacers are in the front court. When you look at Barnes, Wemby,

1661
01:20:51,680 --> 01:20:55,479
Kelly Olinik like so that makes me partially uneasy. I'm

1662
01:20:55,479 --> 01:20:58,439
also curious to just see he is pretty adaptable. But

1663
01:20:58,479 --> 01:21:00,399
we mentioned those three guards and it's right, like, how

1664
01:21:00,399 --> 01:21:03,600
does Devin Vessel kind of factor into all of this?

1665
01:21:04,119 --> 01:21:05,439
Speaker 2: The defense could.

1666
01:21:05,600 --> 01:21:08,399
Speaker 1: And should be terrifying, though, when you have Steph Castle,

1667
01:21:08,760 --> 01:21:13,079
Victor Wenberyama, even just a healthy darn fox Jeremy Sohan's

1668
01:21:13,079 --> 01:21:15,720
gonna play, which will help their defense. But I also

1669
01:21:15,720 --> 01:21:18,600
think that that could do them a disservice on offense.

1670
01:21:18,960 --> 01:21:21,920
And so that's where when it comes back what Victor

1671
01:21:21,920 --> 01:21:24,279
Wembyama has been able to do generating his own paint

1672
01:21:24,319 --> 01:21:26,520
touches some of the passes he has thrown in the preseason.

1673
01:21:26,800 --> 01:21:30,159
He looks stronger, he's apparently twelve inches taller or whatever

1674
01:21:30,199 --> 01:21:33,720
it ended up being. But like, do you trust him

1675
01:21:33,720 --> 01:21:36,520
to be the I don't want to say the hub

1676
01:21:36,560 --> 01:21:40,039
because he's not working like that, but the primary driver

1677
01:21:40,680 --> 01:21:42,720
of what's a really good offense in the NBA. And

1678
01:21:42,720 --> 01:21:45,359
now it feels stupid to say that because well darn

1679
01:21:45,439 --> 01:21:49,000
Fox is also on this team. It's just so it's

1680
01:21:49,039 --> 01:21:51,439
so difficult for me to just reconcile like the guard

1681
01:21:51,520 --> 01:21:54,159
dynamics with what it feels like they also need from

1682
01:21:54,239 --> 01:21:55,640
Victor Wenbinyama on that end.

1683
01:21:55,960 --> 01:22:00,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think offensively this will be the year where,

1684
01:22:00,800 --> 01:22:04,199
based on the preseason win, min Yama really does despite

1685
01:22:04,319 --> 01:22:07,520
having all these guards, does get an opportunity to like

1686
01:22:07,640 --> 01:22:09,880
explore the space quite a bit. And I think this

1687
01:22:10,000 --> 01:22:12,439
might be a season where I don't know where he's

1688
01:22:12,439 --> 01:22:14,920
gonna rank in turnovers, but it'll be really high, Like

1689
01:22:14,960 --> 01:22:19,600
he'll he's gonna get shots to do some honest stuff

1690
01:22:19,600 --> 01:22:22,079
where he's just barreling into traffic trying to get those

1691
01:22:22,119 --> 01:22:24,119
paint touches, which are valuable, and that is something he

1692
01:22:24,119 --> 01:22:26,920
should be allowed to kind of try to work on.

1693
01:22:28,199 --> 01:22:30,600
I just some of the flashes in preseason, even his

1694
01:22:30,680 --> 01:22:33,720
good games have been high turnover games. So he's not

1695
01:22:33,960 --> 01:22:38,840
someone yet who can be like the singular driver of offense,

1696
01:22:38,880 --> 01:22:42,359
or at least you're your main driver. And I don't well,

1697
01:22:42,399 --> 01:22:45,640
I like Harper a lot, and I think Fox is,

1698
01:22:45,800 --> 01:22:49,319
you know, not an All Star anymore, maybe but pretty

1699
01:22:49,319 --> 01:22:53,039
close to that. Those guys I think are still probably

1700
01:22:53,079 --> 01:22:57,960
gonna be better equipped as like generators of shots, and

1701
01:22:58,039 --> 01:23:00,600
maybe he'll That's the thing. The upside here is Wenby

1702
01:23:00,680 --> 01:23:03,279
proves me wrong and this team wins fifty plus because

1703
01:23:03,279 --> 01:23:07,119
he actually is a y, honest level guy offensively or

1704
01:23:07,159 --> 01:23:09,560
something like that. I just I think we're at least

1705
01:23:09,600 --> 01:23:12,439
a year away from that. But the floor again, here

1706
01:23:12,479 --> 01:23:15,640
we go. If he's in the game, the Spurs defense

1707
01:23:15,680 --> 01:23:18,399
will be spectacular and as long as he's healthy, defense

1708
01:23:18,479 --> 01:23:21,800
himself right easy, like even maybe even better than that

1709
01:23:22,119 --> 01:23:24,880
when he's out there. So yeah, forty one, I also

1710
01:23:24,920 --> 01:23:28,600
have forty one wins for them. It feels like change. No,

1711
01:23:28,840 --> 01:23:31,960
I do not feel good at all about it. Yeah,

1712
01:23:31,960 --> 01:23:34,439
I think we're a year away. And the other thing though,

1713
01:23:34,680 --> 01:23:37,239
to think about it just occurs to me, like, I

1714
01:23:37,239 --> 01:23:39,359
don't know they went for Fox last year. Is there

1715
01:23:39,399 --> 01:23:41,720
another trade that they're willing to make this season? If

1716
01:23:41,760 --> 01:23:45,760
Wenby's even better that that maybe raises their ceiling a touch.

1717
01:23:45,800 --> 01:23:47,920
I don't. I don't know, Like I wouldn't take it

1718
01:23:47,920 --> 01:23:51,399
off the table. If they're willing to go for Fox, what.

1719
01:23:51,399 --> 01:23:53,800
Speaker 1: Are they going to be involved if Yannis requests out

1720
01:23:53,840 --> 01:23:54,359
mid season?

1721
01:23:55,279 --> 01:23:58,560
Speaker 2: I got I hope so that that would be I've

1722
01:23:58,560 --> 01:24:00,720
been trying to make you honest to say Antonio happened

1723
01:24:00,720 --> 01:24:04,199
since like at least last year. That's my favorite spot

1724
01:24:04,239 --> 01:24:04,560
for him.

1725
01:24:05,159 --> 01:24:07,920
Speaker 1: Uh, it's I think it's my favorite spot for him

1726
01:24:08,000 --> 01:24:11,039
because I'm so I don't necessarily understand what it would

1727
01:24:11,039 --> 01:24:13,399
look like right away, so like it's the most fascinating

1728
01:24:13,439 --> 01:24:15,239
landing spot. I don't know what my favorite one would

1729
01:24:15,239 --> 01:24:17,279
be for him, but it's my most fascinating one for sure,

1730
01:24:17,479 --> 01:24:19,960
just the idea of him and Wemby and who's left

1731
01:24:19,960 --> 01:24:24,760
over after that. I don't we also don't like what

1732
01:24:24,760 --> 01:24:27,399
what is their end goal this because you trade for

1733
01:24:27,439 --> 01:24:28,960
dearon Fox, but you didn't have to give up a

1734
01:24:29,039 --> 01:24:31,079
king's ransom to get for him. So are you like

1735
01:24:31,159 --> 01:24:34,000
really married to going for it? Or is this We're

1736
01:24:34,039 --> 01:24:36,840
going to give Dylan Harper a ton of on ball reps.

1737
01:24:36,840 --> 01:24:39,920
We're gonna try and develop Steph Castle in different ways

1738
01:24:39,920 --> 01:24:42,840
on the offensive end, like you you already mentioned it

1739
01:24:42,840 --> 01:24:46,039
with Wemby, like it seemed was preseason just the experimental playground,

1740
01:24:46,079 --> 01:24:48,000
and they're gonna kind of even out his role a

1741
01:24:48,039 --> 01:24:49,840
little bit after that in the regular season. I don't

1742
01:24:49,880 --> 01:24:50,279
I don't know.

1743
01:24:51,159 --> 01:24:54,000
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think the interesting thing for them too is

1744
01:24:54,039 --> 01:24:56,239
if you do want to make that big trade, like

1745
01:24:56,640 --> 01:24:59,800
I think it's between Olnic and Harrison Barnes and maybe

1746
01:24:59,800 --> 01:25:02,479
so you can get to like forty million dollars if

1747
01:25:02,520 --> 01:25:05,880
and so hand will be restricted of like basically expiring money.

1748
01:25:06,359 --> 01:25:08,359
So if you wanted to and you want to get

1749
01:25:08,359 --> 01:25:10,479
those picks on the table, you don't need to really

1750
01:25:10,479 --> 01:25:12,960
take any key pieces away here to add somebody.

1751
01:25:14,239 --> 01:25:16,439
Speaker 1: I get three want to pay through the teeth, could you?

1752
01:25:16,439 --> 01:25:19,399
Speaker 2: You You have to be committing right, you'd say you're

1753
01:25:19,439 --> 01:25:22,439
saying then because Wembi will get super Max and then

1754
01:25:22,479 --> 01:25:24,079
Fox and this other guy.

1755
01:25:24,000 --> 01:25:25,239
Speaker 1: You think will get the Max.

1756
01:25:25,439 --> 01:25:27,279
Speaker 2: He might not get the escalators. They may have to

1757
01:25:27,319 --> 01:25:29,479
rename it, forget the Rose rule. They'll have to like

1758
01:25:29,560 --> 01:25:33,199
give it some special new explanation for why he's worth

1759
01:25:33,239 --> 01:25:34,479
forty five percent of the cap.

1760
01:25:34,960 --> 01:25:37,640
Speaker 1: You did mention if they have fifty win potential. I

1761
01:25:37,680 --> 01:25:40,560
would bet that if they got like forty nine or

1762
01:25:40,600 --> 01:25:43,520
fifty wins, Wemby is probably the MVP, Defensive Player of

1763
01:25:43,560 --> 01:25:47,000
the Year and most improved player. Just wins the triple Crown.

1764
01:25:47,479 --> 01:25:51,399
Speaker 2: Yep, I think and guess what on the table could happen?

1765
01:25:51,600 --> 01:25:56,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, on the table. Our final team is the Utah Jazz.

1766
01:25:56,600 --> 01:26:00,199
They're over under grants a little low. Uh, it is

1767
01:26:00,199 --> 01:26:02,479
that we both went over though, so great? Oh no,

1768
01:26:02,520 --> 01:26:05,840
you went under No. Eighty team, Oh at nineteen sixty three.

1769
01:26:05,840 --> 01:26:08,119
They're eighteen and a half the Utah Jazz are I

1770
01:26:08,199 --> 01:26:11,359
went over at twenty four and fifty twenty four and

1771
01:26:11,399 --> 01:26:14,319
fifty eight. This team is I think a lot of

1772
01:26:14,359 --> 01:26:17,319
people expect them to just be really bad, and your

1773
01:26:17,359 --> 01:26:21,479
record reflects that. I'm just they're very well coached the

1774
01:26:21,560 --> 01:26:24,239
fact that Ace Bailey is very well coached makes me

1775
01:26:24,279 --> 01:26:26,000
think that he could be in the running for Rookie

1776
01:26:26,039 --> 01:26:29,960
of the Year. And I just think Larry Market will

1777
01:26:29,960 --> 01:26:32,640
probably have a better season just there might be just

1778
01:26:32,680 --> 01:26:34,800
having Ace Bailey gives them another threat around him. You

1779
01:26:34,800 --> 01:26:38,199
know what you have in Bryce Sensabaz spacing Walter Clayton

1780
01:26:38,239 --> 01:26:41,239
Junior is another guy who's gonna give him space to operate.

1781
01:26:42,239 --> 01:26:44,560
I just feel like they don't need to They don't

1782
01:26:44,560 --> 01:26:46,760
want to win a ton of games. They probably call

1783
01:26:46,800 --> 01:26:49,920
them unhappy accidents internally, but they don't need to be

1784
01:26:50,159 --> 01:26:53,000
like an eighteen seventeen win team to be the worst

1785
01:26:53,000 --> 01:26:55,600
team in the Western Conference or half top four lotteryots.

1786
01:26:55,920 --> 01:26:59,640
Speaker 2: No, I think that's right. I think that's all. And

1787
01:26:59,720 --> 01:27:04,680
really like basically everybody that they've sort of tried to

1788
01:27:04,920 --> 01:27:07,680
make the cornerstone in the past and have and those

1789
01:27:07,680 --> 01:27:11,199
guys haven't proven to be good enough like or healthy

1790
01:27:11,279 --> 01:27:15,359
enough like the Hendrixes. And it's just Keyante, George, Isaiah Collier,

1791
01:27:15,439 --> 01:27:18,920
Cody Williams, Kyle Philipowski, just go down the list. Those

1792
01:27:18,920 --> 01:27:21,119
guys could all just be a little bit better. I

1793
01:27:21,159 --> 01:27:24,560
mean certain like Cody Williams almost by definition cannot be word.

1794
01:27:24,560 --> 01:27:26,039
I don't know if he's gonna play, but he was

1795
01:27:26,159 --> 01:27:26,960
just one of the most.

1796
01:27:26,880 --> 01:27:30,800
Speaker 1: Damaging calories a day. He's ready to start moving people

1797
01:27:30,880 --> 01:27:32,239
like Jalalen Williams. It's gonna be great.

1798
01:27:32,279 --> 01:27:34,920
Speaker 2: It's got his macro's squared away. He's he's real. Yeah,

1799
01:27:34,920 --> 01:27:39,359
he's so he'll be, you know, five percent better. I think, though,

1800
01:27:39,439 --> 01:27:46,079
in the end, that this the just giving control of

1801
01:27:46,119 --> 01:27:49,880
the offense to George and Collier and to a lesser extent,

1802
01:27:49,880 --> 01:27:52,199
Walter Clayton, who I think probably should if if they

1803
01:27:52,239 --> 01:27:54,319
cared about winning, should probably just have the starting point

1804
01:27:54,319 --> 01:27:57,600
guard job from the jump as a rookie. I just

1805
01:27:57,640 --> 01:28:01,039
think handing control of an offense to that level of

1806
01:28:01,079 --> 01:28:05,439
inexperience and to this point in effectiveness is just you.

1807
01:28:05,439 --> 01:28:08,159
You You're just not gonna be good. That's I don't

1808
01:28:08,159 --> 01:28:10,520
even if Larry Marketing is great, Like, it's gonna be

1809
01:28:10,520 --> 01:28:13,720
really hard for you to be effective. Yeah, they could

1810
01:28:13,760 --> 01:28:16,159
easily get twenty four. I'm over too, just because eighteen

1811
01:28:16,159 --> 01:28:18,720
and a half is so that's a crazy You can

1812
01:28:18,960 --> 01:28:22,319
the Jazz routinely accidentally win that many games?

1813
01:28:22,359 --> 01:28:22,520
Speaker 1: You know?

1814
01:28:22,600 --> 01:28:25,439
Speaker 2: You know, so I think they're over. I still think

1815
01:28:25,479 --> 01:28:27,680
they're pretty clearly the worst team in the West.

1816
01:28:29,000 --> 01:28:30,640
Speaker 1: I have the Pelicans as the worst team in the

1817
01:28:30,680 --> 01:28:33,319
West at twenty three and fifty nine verses twenty four

1818
01:28:33,399 --> 01:28:33,960
and fifty eight.

1819
01:28:34,439 --> 01:28:35,079
Speaker 2: I love that for you.

1820
01:28:36,119 --> 01:28:38,319
Speaker 1: That feels like that's one that could age pretty poor.

1821
01:28:38,359 --> 01:28:40,000
Speaker 2: That it feels personally, this is what it feels like

1822
01:28:40,039 --> 01:28:40,239
to me.

1823
01:28:40,720 --> 01:28:42,880
Speaker 1: I'm just angry. I've been so high on the Pelicans

1824
01:28:42,920 --> 01:28:45,079
in years past, and they just I'm taking it out.

1825
01:28:45,119 --> 01:28:48,800
I'm lashing out now, is what's happening. That's fair the

1826
01:28:49,399 --> 01:28:51,359
I think what would give me pause here if you

1827
01:28:51,399 --> 01:28:53,640
were worried about them not hitting me over or if

1828
01:28:53,640 --> 01:28:56,039
I'm even saying they're gonna get into like the mid twenties.

1829
01:28:56,800 --> 01:28:59,479
Are they so paranoid at this point? And Austin An

1830
01:28:59,479 --> 01:29:03,359
said they would do this? Yeah, Like you have Taylor Hendricks, healthy,

1831
01:29:03,720 --> 01:29:07,319
Walker Kessler, healthy Larry Market and healthy Ace Bailey's contending

1832
01:29:07,359 --> 01:29:09,159
for Rookie of the Year. Walter Clayton looks like he's

1833
01:29:09,199 --> 01:29:11,439
gonna make all rookie Brice sense a bo gets a

1834
01:29:11,479 --> 01:29:13,760
little bit better. You're playing someone like a George and

1835
01:29:13,880 --> 01:29:16,279
Yang is coming into helping you, Kyle Anderson's helping you.

1836
01:29:16,680 --> 01:29:19,920
Are they forced to early again where it's it's November

1837
01:29:19,960 --> 01:29:22,439
and they're, well, we were not fucking doing this again,

1838
01:29:22,560 --> 01:29:25,880
and it's just someone's traded. Everybody's shut down, and it's

1839
01:29:26,279 --> 01:29:28,560
I could see maybe it's anario where that happens, but

1840
01:29:28,640 --> 01:29:31,520
eighteen and a half is just such a low, low number.

1841
01:29:31,720 --> 01:29:35,000
Speaker 2: It's yeah, it's hard to get there, just in any

1842
01:29:35,039 --> 01:29:38,119
situation like that's just it's hard to win in the teams.

1843
01:29:38,439 --> 01:29:41,279
Uh So I think that's I think the cover they

1844
01:29:41,279 --> 01:29:45,199
have is just maybe from a fan perspective, that will

1845
01:29:45,239 --> 01:29:47,439
allow them to really. Now again, I don't know what

1846
01:29:47,479 --> 01:29:49,199
you do with market In and really to another to

1847
01:29:49,199 --> 01:29:51,399
a lesser extent, Kessler, because those guys will help you

1848
01:29:51,439 --> 01:29:54,119
win games that the shutdown may have to happen or

1849
01:29:54,159 --> 01:29:56,239
the trade may have to happen. I thought your conversation

1850
01:29:56,279 --> 01:29:59,279
with Sarah Todd was really illuminating about market and just

1851
01:29:59,319 --> 01:30:01,079
wants to be there and he knows what he signed

1852
01:30:01,159 --> 01:30:03,359
up for, so all this trade talk about him is

1853
01:30:03,439 --> 01:30:05,319
kind of like, so clearly it'll have to be the

1854
01:30:05,399 --> 01:30:07,880
Jazz that are saying we don't want you here because

1855
01:30:07,920 --> 01:30:10,720
it won't come from him. So that's a weird dynamic.

1856
01:30:10,760 --> 01:30:12,960
But to get back to the point, I think you

1857
01:30:12,960 --> 01:30:15,279
can get away with just this is the Ace Bailey season.

1858
01:30:15,520 --> 01:30:18,640
He's gonna shoot twenty plus times a game. It won't

1859
01:30:18,640 --> 01:30:21,680
be efficient, it'll be exciting, and you will leave the

1860
01:30:21,760 --> 01:30:24,560
year with a win total in the high teens and

1861
01:30:24,720 --> 01:30:27,560
believing that Ace Bailey might be actually the cornerstone they've

1862
01:30:27,560 --> 01:30:29,920
been looking for. I think that's kind of like everybody's

1863
01:30:29,960 --> 01:30:32,640
pretty happy with that, except for marketing it, I guess,

1864
01:30:32,880 --> 01:30:35,319
although maybe he's happy no matter what, because it seems

1865
01:30:35,359 --> 01:30:37,840
like he just wants to live there and be on

1866
01:30:37,880 --> 01:30:38,560
an NBA team.

1867
01:30:38,600 --> 01:30:43,840
Speaker 1: I don't know, you did not name your best bet, sir.

1868
01:30:44,359 --> 01:30:49,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I am struggling between the Minnesota over and honestly

1869
01:30:49,840 --> 01:30:52,119
the Portland Over because I think they're like a high

1870
01:30:52,159 --> 01:30:55,920
thirties team, So just for it to be fun, I'm

1871
01:30:55,960 --> 01:30:59,960
gonna take Portland as my best bet at thirty eight,

1872
01:31:00,840 --> 01:31:04,159
just a big, burly, robust thirty eight victories.

1873
01:31:05,399 --> 01:31:08,840
Speaker 1: My best bet was Oklahoma City over sixty two and

1874
01:31:08,880 --> 01:31:12,880
a half Grant. Grant's logic there was interesting where he's

1875
01:31:12,920 --> 01:31:15,159
trying to win this thing, so he already put himself

1876
01:31:15,159 --> 01:31:18,239
in anh one hole in the over competition by going

1877
01:31:18,600 --> 01:31:22,439
by going under. Man if they go under I'm gonna

1878
01:31:22,439 --> 01:31:24,720
look very foolish, which happens all the time for my comments.

1879
01:31:24,720 --> 01:31:26,520
Do you have anything else to add? Or we did it?

1880
01:31:27,119 --> 01:31:29,840
That's our record, predictions and our over unders are done.

1881
01:31:30,000 --> 01:31:32,800
I'm excited once again to have gone fifteen for fifteen,

1882
01:31:33,239 --> 01:31:34,399
and that's rough stuff for you.

1883
01:31:34,479 --> 01:31:37,800
Speaker 2: Grant, I really good, but I'm more just impressed. No,

1884
01:31:37,880 --> 01:31:40,119
I don't think I have anything to add except that

1885
01:31:40,319 --> 01:31:42,720
I look forward to having you remind me what I

1886
01:31:42,760 --> 01:31:45,319
thought about all these teams within like the next two weeks,

1887
01:31:45,319 --> 01:31:47,520
because I will forget except for Portland thirty eight wins.

1888
01:31:47,520 --> 01:31:49,359
I'll remember that one because you can lock it in.

1889
01:31:49,520 --> 01:31:52,119
Speaker 1: When you come on and you're talking about, OKAYC is

1890
01:31:52,159 --> 01:31:54,760
like a seventy five win team this year with the

1891
01:31:54,840 --> 01:31:57,079
weak of the season, I'm gonna remind you.

1892
01:31:57,319 --> 01:32:02,279
Speaker 2: I feel like I hedged enough to acknowledge that that's possible.

1893
01:32:02,720 --> 01:32:05,039
You know, of all the podcasts, this is the this

1894
01:32:05,119 --> 01:32:08,600
is the hedge Monster of podcasts, because we just like

1895
01:32:08,640 --> 01:32:11,239
to make sure we I acknowledge Dan that this team

1896
01:32:11,239 --> 01:32:13,920
could win twelve games or it could win eighty four,

1897
01:32:14,159 --> 01:32:16,399
and I just I just want to say I understand

1898
01:32:16,399 --> 01:32:17,199
both perspectives.

1899
01:32:18,399 --> 01:32:21,079
Speaker 1: Also, go ahead, I was going to say, we want

1900
01:32:21,079 --> 01:32:22,399
to know how many wins you think the Thunder and

1901
01:32:22,439 --> 01:32:23,520
everybody else are going to have.

1902
01:32:24,039 --> 01:32:26,000
Speaker 2: That's that's what I was going to do, and you

1903
01:32:26,039 --> 01:32:27,800
can do that. But Dan, we'll put the link to

1904
01:32:27,840 --> 01:32:30,680
the Google sheet here and you join our discord, you can.

1905
01:32:30,800 --> 01:32:33,359
You can get to it there. Links for all that

1906
01:32:33,399 --> 01:32:36,680
in the YouTube and podcast descriptions, rate review, subscribe, do

1907
01:32:36,720 --> 01:32:40,279
all that stuff. If you've enjoyed this offseason content, which

1908
01:32:40,359 --> 01:32:42,279
of course you have, because it's been just great a

1909
01:32:42,479 --> 01:32:46,119
especially all the look aheads which are almost over. Toronto's

1910
01:32:46,159 --> 01:32:50,479
coming next week. Look forward to that. That's going to

1911
01:32:50,520 --> 01:32:53,359
cover it. Tell your friends, tell your enemies, shout outs,

1912
01:32:53,520 --> 01:32:55,199
cranking look you know. Apologies, Jarrett,