WEBVTT 1 00:00:09.160 --> 00:00:11.640 Hello, and welcome to the Texas Tribune Trip Cast for 2 00:00:11.800 --> 00:00:14.880 March tenth, twenty twenty six. My name is Matthew Watkins, 3 00:00:14.960 --> 00:00:17.519 editor in chief of the Texas Tribune, and I am 4 00:00:17.559 --> 00:00:20.440 joined as usual by Eleanor Klibanoff, Lawn, politics reporter for 5 00:00:20.480 --> 00:00:22.760 the Tribune. Hello, Eleanor, thanks. 6 00:00:22.440 --> 00:00:24.239 For having me, and thanks for getting the title right. 7 00:00:24.399 --> 00:00:28.039 Yeah, I wrote it down. 8 00:00:28.160 --> 00:00:29.199 That's good. That's good. 9 00:00:29.600 --> 00:00:33.560 Yes, I of course missed last week's podcast. I was 10 00:00:33.600 --> 00:00:37.119 in beautiful Providence, Rhode Island, where there were three feet 11 00:00:37.280 --> 00:00:40.880 was three feet of snow on the ground, and I 12 00:00:40.920 --> 00:00:43.119 missed it so much I heard I'm so jealous of 13 00:00:43.159 --> 00:00:48.679 y'all talking about the election results and particularly Ken Paxton 14 00:00:49.280 --> 00:00:51.920 and John Cornyn that I demanded that we do it 15 00:00:51.960 --> 00:00:53.119 again this week. 16 00:00:53.799 --> 00:00:54.240 We love it. 17 00:00:54.280 --> 00:00:56.719 Honestly, we could not have fit even one more person 18 00:00:56.799 --> 00:00:59.320 on this stage. Certainly we had no more room for 19 00:00:59.799 --> 00:01:02.280 one more man, so we were maxed out. 20 00:01:02.399 --> 00:01:04.359 So what it kicked you off? Anyway? 21 00:01:04.439 --> 00:01:08.200 All right? Well, well, very good, and so joining us 22 00:01:08.239 --> 00:01:11.599 to discuss this is friend of the podcast, Mark Davis, 23 00:01:11.840 --> 00:01:16.760 who is host of his self titled show on six 24 00:01:16.920 --> 00:01:20.079 sixty am The Answer in Dallas, Fort Worth and a 25 00:01:20.159 --> 00:01:25.760 frequent interviewer of Texas's top Republican officials. Mark, thank you 26 00:01:25.799 --> 00:01:26.519 for joining us. 27 00:01:27.040 --> 00:01:28.439 Thank you guys, pleasure to be here. 28 00:01:28.519 --> 00:01:30.959 It's a fun time, I think, to be in talk 29 00:01:31.040 --> 00:01:31.920 radio in Texas. 30 00:01:32.879 --> 00:01:35.120 To say the least, I mean, this was this was 31 00:01:35.280 --> 00:01:38.959 all set up. This was frontloaded to be an amazing season, 32 00:01:39.000 --> 00:01:41.680 no matter what I mean. It always is at primary times, 33 00:01:41.920 --> 00:01:45.680 and it always is, especially in Republican territory of primary times, 34 00:01:45.840 --> 00:01:48.599 with blood on the walls and all these bitter feuds 35 00:01:48.680 --> 00:01:50.920 and all of a sudden, everybody makes nice afterwards. We 36 00:01:50.959 --> 00:01:53.519 all unite to beat the Democrats, just as the Democrats 37 00:01:53.640 --> 00:01:55.680 unite to beat us. At least that's the way it's 38 00:01:55.719 --> 00:01:59.200 supposed to go. But wow, there might be some intervening 39 00:01:59.319 --> 00:02:02.599 passions that make this, if possible, even more interesting. 40 00:02:02.799 --> 00:02:05.200 Indeed, so let me just go through a quick recap. 41 00:02:05.239 --> 00:02:07.560 I'm sure all of our listeners know this, but let's 42 00:02:07.599 --> 00:02:09.479 talk about how we got to where we are right 43 00:02:09.520 --> 00:02:13.879 now in this Cornyn Paxton race. Cornan shocks me at 44 00:02:13.960 --> 00:02:16.560 least and maybe some other people by emerging from election 45 00:02:16.719 --> 00:02:20.280 night as the top vote recipient forty one point seven 46 00:02:20.360 --> 00:02:24.280 percent to Paxton's forty point seven percent, Mark, I will 47 00:02:24.360 --> 00:02:26.520 ask you in a little bit whether that surprised you 48 00:02:26.639 --> 00:02:29.360 or not. And then, of course, James Tallerco wins the 49 00:02:29.360 --> 00:02:34.599 Democratic nomination decisively. The next day, Donald Trump declares he's 50 00:02:34.759 --> 00:02:37.840 very much not worried about Tallerico, who is obviously going 51 00:02:37.879 --> 00:02:40.520 to lose, but still says he'll be endorsing in the 52 00:02:40.639 --> 00:02:42.919 race and for the good of the party, the other 53 00:02:43.080 --> 00:02:47.960 candidate must drop out. Everyone sort of assumes that that 54 00:02:48.039 --> 00:02:51.879 means he's going to endorse Cornan Paxton, asked about this, 55 00:02:52.000 --> 00:02:56.520 declares he's not leaving the race, and then the next day, Thursday, 56 00:02:57.159 --> 00:03:00.360 says he'd consider dropping out of the race, but only 57 00:03:00.400 --> 00:03:03.080 if the Senate passes the Save Act, which would require 58 00:03:03.240 --> 00:03:09.759 national voter ID. Flash forward to now, and really, we 59 00:03:09.879 --> 00:03:13.639 haven't had much progress on this story. No endorsement, no 60 00:03:13.800 --> 00:03:18.639 Save Act, no one dropping out of the race. So Mark, 61 00:03:19.919 --> 00:03:22.840 tell me take let's take a journey into the mind 62 00:03:22.879 --> 00:03:25.719 of Donald Trump right now? What is he thinking? What's 63 00:03:26.120 --> 00:03:29.840 what's what's his move right now? Why is he making 64 00:03:29.840 --> 00:03:32.039 the moves he has already made. 65 00:03:32.400 --> 00:03:35.360 At any given moment, if the president does something he 66 00:03:35.439 --> 00:03:38.280 thinks it's advantageous to his agenda. I mean, that's not 67 00:03:38.319 --> 00:03:41.479 a shocker. That's why every politician does any given thing. 68 00:03:42.000 --> 00:03:46.039 The President has a capacity for being so transactional, I 69 00:03:46.039 --> 00:03:49.000 guess is the frequently used term that he can seem 70 00:03:49.039 --> 00:03:51.800 to shift on the fly, just as a real estate 71 00:03:51.919 --> 00:03:54.520 deal might be. If something looks advantageous one day, it 72 00:03:54.599 --> 00:03:57.240 might not be so advantageous the next, which is what 73 00:03:57.400 --> 00:04:01.599 gets you from what looked like a continued stance of 74 00:04:01.719 --> 00:04:05.319 no endorsement, which I have considered to be an act 75 00:04:05.319 --> 00:04:07.560 of genius on his part, because as soon as he 76 00:04:07.680 --> 00:04:11.120 endorses anybody corn or Paxton, the first thing he's going 77 00:04:11.159 --> 00:04:15.520 to do is enormously alienate and inflame roughly half of 78 00:04:15.560 --> 00:04:19.480 his Texas base. What wisdom could there possibly be in 79 00:04:19.600 --> 00:04:23.800 doing that? So, in exploring what that motivation might be, 80 00:04:24.519 --> 00:04:26.800 to go chronologically to the first thing you said, was 81 00:04:26.839 --> 00:04:32.360 their surprise in cornn finishing as he did for me. No, 82 00:04:32.800 --> 00:04:35.000 but it's not because I'm such a genius. It's because 83 00:04:35.000 --> 00:04:40.120 I considered almost anything to be possible, from the MAGA 84 00:04:40.279 --> 00:04:45.079 fueled grassroots red meat conservatism of Paxton giving him a 85 00:04:45.240 --> 00:04:49.839 five point lead to the absolutely unshakable incumbent power of 86 00:04:49.879 --> 00:04:53.040 Cornan giving him a five or six point lead, anything 87 00:04:53.160 --> 00:04:55.639 was truly possible. So for them to wind up in 88 00:04:55.680 --> 00:04:58.959 a relative dead heat and get thrown into the cauldron 89 00:04:59.000 --> 00:05:02.199 of hell that is the because of Wesley Hunt's bizarre 90 00:05:02.199 --> 00:05:04.680 decision to run. That was all the list of things 91 00:05:04.720 --> 00:05:07.399 that could have happened. So, to finish my overly long answer, 92 00:05:07.519 --> 00:05:10.720 what is Trump thinking right now? I can understand that 93 00:05:10.879 --> 00:05:15.519 he does not cherish the notion of a long, expensive 94 00:05:15.920 --> 00:05:18.120 blood on the Walls primary going all the way to 95 00:05:18.319 --> 00:05:24.360 May twenty sixth, which may afterward leave nerves rubbed so 96 00:05:25.040 --> 00:05:29.240 raw that the losing side is loath to come back 97 00:05:29.279 --> 00:05:32.040 to the polls on November third, even if it's to 98 00:05:32.199 --> 00:05:37.240 stop James Tallerico. I think that is a fear worth assessing. 99 00:05:38.279 --> 00:05:41.000 So one of the things I've been kind of wondering 100 00:05:41.040 --> 00:05:45.600 about is what really changed on primary night? Right because 101 00:05:45.680 --> 00:05:47.920 I think we all kind of knew whether or not 102 00:05:48.000 --> 00:05:50.439 we thought that Cornyn was going to be the front 103 00:05:50.480 --> 00:05:52.800 runner after primary night, we all hat a pretty good 104 00:05:52.839 --> 00:05:54.720 sense going into that night that it was going to 105 00:05:54.759 --> 00:05:58.399 be Corny and Packson in a runoff. We already knew. 106 00:05:58.519 --> 00:06:01.319 We have lots of evidence to look at that those 107 00:06:01.360 --> 00:06:04.959 two guys really don't like each other, and we're going 108 00:06:05.000 --> 00:06:08.920 to be lobbing bombs at each other through that entire runoff. 109 00:06:09.319 --> 00:06:10.959 We knew that it was going to be like a 110 00:06:11.160 --> 00:06:13.000 you know that it's going to be a pretty tough 111 00:06:13.319 --> 00:06:16.959 election cycle for Republicans. That's generally what happens in the 112 00:06:16.959 --> 00:06:22.240 midterms for the party that holds the White House. So 113 00:06:22.439 --> 00:06:28.040 what changed between March second and March fourth that all 114 00:06:28.079 --> 00:06:30.839 of a sudden, Trump, who had taken the position of 115 00:06:32.439 --> 00:06:34.199 I'm saying out of this, is now all of a 116 00:06:34.240 --> 00:06:35.879 sudden like I got to get in on this. 117 00:06:37.399 --> 00:06:39.720 I think on March second, if you had asked President 118 00:06:39.800 --> 00:06:41.759 Trump what you might do and what you want to do, 119 00:06:42.079 --> 00:06:44.560 he would think he would say, let me see how 120 00:06:44.600 --> 00:06:47.759 the vote goes, because if either Packs nor cornyin or 121 00:06:47.800 --> 00:06:51.040 obviously if somebody had won outright, then we're done here. 122 00:06:51.079 --> 00:06:53.399 I mean. And by the way, I mean, it's not 123 00:06:53.480 --> 00:06:56.720 like it was thirty something, thirty something, twenty something. Both 124 00:06:56.720 --> 00:06:58.720 of them were in the forties, the low forties. Nobody 125 00:06:58.759 --> 00:07:01.800 came that close. But it's not like either Cornin or 126 00:07:01.879 --> 00:07:06.680 Paxton winning outright would have been so otherworldly crazy. And 127 00:07:06.720 --> 00:07:09.000 I think the President wanted to see if maybe that happened, 128 00:07:09.160 --> 00:07:12.720 so we could be spared this entire, this entire drama. 129 00:07:13.600 --> 00:07:16.839 Seeing them finish neck and neck as they did, you 130 00:07:16.920 --> 00:07:20.439 might think that would leave the President in a mood 131 00:07:20.439 --> 00:07:23.079 to continue to stay out of it, which again I 132 00:07:23.120 --> 00:07:25.959 hope he still will and I kind of think he 133 00:07:26.120 --> 00:07:30.720 still We'll see about that. Well, listen that corn and endorsement, 134 00:07:30.920 --> 00:07:35.839 which looked definite until it instantly wasn't. And now and look, 135 00:07:35.920 --> 00:07:38.240 let's not go crazy. There are some who are floating 136 00:07:38.279 --> 00:07:42.120 the notion possibly of a Packson endorsement, what with with 137 00:07:42.319 --> 00:07:46.079 Ken's maneuvering with regard to to save act. More on 138 00:07:46.120 --> 00:07:49.639 that in a moment, But I think the president is 139 00:07:49.720 --> 00:07:53.160 now possibly examining and this may all change by the 140 00:07:53.160 --> 00:07:56.839 time everybody sees this point time. So there's ultimate accountability 141 00:07:56.879 --> 00:07:59.959 on tape, there's wisdom and Trump staying out of it. 142 00:08:00.920 --> 00:08:03.360 And even if he does go ahead and endorse Corn, 143 00:08:03.360 --> 00:08:08.759 it as a reward for loyal service during this Trump 144 00:08:08.759 --> 00:08:13.279 two point zero term, that could backfire because there are 145 00:08:13.399 --> 00:08:19.120 packs The voice of a couple of million Paxton voters 146 00:08:19.240 --> 00:08:22.600 will say something like, mister President, we love you, We 147 00:08:22.680 --> 00:08:25.480 thank God every day that you won. We're going to 148 00:08:25.560 --> 00:08:27.319 make up our own minds on this one. Thank you. 149 00:08:28.040 --> 00:08:30.879 I do think, I mean, I think part of this 150 00:08:30.959 --> 00:08:32.559 is that Trump didn't want to get into a situation 151 00:08:32.840 --> 00:08:35.399 like with you know, Sid Miller, where you endorse too 152 00:08:35.440 --> 00:08:38.399 late and then you know people have already cast their 153 00:08:38.440 --> 00:08:40.559 early votes and it sort of blows up in your face. 154 00:08:40.600 --> 00:08:43.799 I think perhaps President Trump did not do as much 155 00:08:43.840 --> 00:08:46.000 advanced planning as we did of realizing that the early 156 00:08:46.120 --> 00:08:49.000 vote starts so early here and that people are you know, 157 00:08:49.039 --> 00:08:50.960 have made up their minds or even just cast their 158 00:08:51.039 --> 00:08:52.879 vote thinking that there wouldn't be an endorsement. 159 00:08:53.480 --> 00:08:55.480 I do think the fact. 160 00:08:55.200 --> 00:08:58.600 That he I was just that he was saying, you know, 161 00:08:58.679 --> 00:09:01.960 whoever I don't endure has to drop out is a 162 00:09:02.080 --> 00:09:04.559 sign that there's not a clear you know, he's not 163 00:09:04.679 --> 00:09:08.879 confident that his endorsement necessarily could win this, because you know, 164 00:09:09.200 --> 00:09:12.600 he doesn'tant to endorse someone and then have them lose. 165 00:09:12.679 --> 00:09:15.519 So he's saying, you know, I'll give you my endorsement, 166 00:09:15.559 --> 00:09:17.759 but you got to go if you don't get. 167 00:09:17.639 --> 00:09:21.679 It, which is of course a ridiculous thing to ask. 168 00:09:22.039 --> 00:09:25.159 There is no universe in which either of those things 169 00:09:25.559 --> 00:09:28.080 was going to happen. Cornan was obviously not going to 170 00:09:28.320 --> 00:09:31.840 step out. And here's my hot take of fresh for you, 171 00:09:32.000 --> 00:09:36.919 no charge. Patson's not going anywhere. You phrased it with 172 00:09:37.120 --> 00:09:40.000 exact precision. This is just my gut. But he said, 173 00:09:40.039 --> 00:09:42.840 Notice he did not say that if the Save Act passes, 174 00:09:42.919 --> 00:09:46.559 I will get out. He said I'll consider getting out. 175 00:09:46.879 --> 00:09:49.559 So here's you know, channeling Ken. I've known him for 176 00:09:49.600 --> 00:09:52.200 a long time. This is just speculation, but I think 177 00:09:52.200 --> 00:09:56.639 it's in foreign speculation. He will consider it for about 178 00:09:56.639 --> 00:09:59.679 five minutes, and in those five minutes, what he will 179 00:09:59.720 --> 00:10:03.000 con is what has happened. And the bottom line is 180 00:10:03.080 --> 00:10:06.120 if the say back has passed and bears Trump's signature, 181 00:10:06.600 --> 00:10:10.240 Ken Paxton can say I did that, and I'm not 182 00:10:10.320 --> 00:10:13.279 even a senator yet. Yeah, So imagine the kind of 183 00:10:13.320 --> 00:10:16.240 influence that I can wield if you make me a senator. 184 00:10:17.519 --> 00:10:21.480 Yeah. I think you know, when Trump put out that 185 00:10:21.879 --> 00:10:24.519 truth social post where he said all these things, I 186 00:10:24.559 --> 00:10:28.759 think a lot of people, you know, immediately assumed packs 187 00:10:28.799 --> 00:10:32.320 I mean, cornan endorsement is coming. And the two reasons 188 00:10:32.320 --> 00:10:35.480 for that are a because as soon as people started 189 00:10:35.480 --> 00:10:38.120 to see the results that tell Rico was going to win, 190 00:10:38.240 --> 00:10:41.519 really before tell Rico had even been declared by most 191 00:10:41.559 --> 00:10:45.360 media the winner. There was talk among well informed people 192 00:10:45.480 --> 00:10:48.799 about this just huge push that's going to happen among 193 00:10:49.080 --> 00:10:53.600 you know, leadership in the Senate, leadership maybe within the 194 00:10:53.679 --> 00:10:56.679 Republican Party nationally and maybe even in Texas to try 195 00:10:56.679 --> 00:10:59.320 to push for a Cornan endorsement because of a feeling 196 00:10:59.720 --> 00:11:03.840 that Sackston is much more vulnerable to defeat in the 197 00:11:03.840 --> 00:11:08.559 general election than Cornyn is. We can I actually want 198 00:11:08.600 --> 00:11:10.840 to discuss whether we believe that to actually be true 199 00:11:10.879 --> 00:11:12.960 here in a little bit, but we will. But the 200 00:11:13.080 --> 00:11:19.159 other thing was essentially, why would Corny Why would Trump 201 00:11:19.200 --> 00:11:21.919 need to say that the person he doesn't endorse needs 202 00:11:21.960 --> 00:11:24.320 to drop out if he was going to endorse Paxton? 203 00:11:24.440 --> 00:11:27.159 Because I feel like the conventional wisdom here is that 204 00:11:27.440 --> 00:11:30.799 if Trump endorses Paxston, it's game over, right, and if 205 00:11:30.840 --> 00:11:33.759 Trump endorses Cornyn, then maybe it's a bit more of 206 00:11:33.799 --> 00:11:37.320 a race. Do you agree with that assessment? 207 00:11:38.440 --> 00:11:43.639 I do. But there is a poetic, classic simplicity if 208 00:11:43.679 --> 00:11:47.200 you're President Trump and saying I'm endorsing this guy, the 209 00:11:47.240 --> 00:11:51.399 other guy should get out, rather than taking another sixty 210 00:11:51.440 --> 00:11:53.639 seconds and a few more syllables to say, well, if 211 00:11:53.679 --> 00:11:55.879 it's one way the other guy should get out. But 212 00:11:55.919 --> 00:11:58.279 if it's this guy, there's probably not as much need. 213 00:11:58.559 --> 00:12:01.519 It seems like a very trumpy thing to do, to say, Look, 214 00:12:01.559 --> 00:12:05.080 once I anoint somebody, the other guy stands no chance 215 00:12:05.080 --> 00:12:07.039 and should probably go ahead and hit the road for 216 00:12:07.080 --> 00:12:09.840 private life. It just seems like the simpler of the 217 00:12:09.879 --> 00:12:10.600 two messages. 218 00:12:10.960 --> 00:12:13.120 And it's so trumpy, And I think to say, you know, 219 00:12:13.240 --> 00:12:15.679 I'm not going to do the behind the scenes machinations 220 00:12:15.879 --> 00:12:18.279 of you know, let's say you endorse Cornyn, you go 221 00:12:18.320 --> 00:12:20.919 to Paxton's camp, you say, you know, we're here's what 222 00:12:20.960 --> 00:12:22.879 I'm asking of you. You just say it on true 223 00:12:22.960 --> 00:12:26.000 social and assume that people will sort of do what 224 00:12:26.039 --> 00:12:28.799 you're asking of them. I think I will also say, like, 225 00:12:28.960 --> 00:12:33.480 I think obviously Cornyn right now probably very anxiously awaiting 226 00:12:33.720 --> 00:12:36.480 news on this. I think for both Trump and Paxton, 227 00:12:37.080 --> 00:12:38.799 this is kind of I mean, for Trump, I have 228 00:12:38.840 --> 00:12:42.639 to imagine you're like everybody is courting me right now. 229 00:12:42.759 --> 00:12:45.919 I mean, this is the plot of you know, every 230 00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:48.799 romance novel and the history of time. Right two people 231 00:12:48.960 --> 00:12:51.279 want you and and they both are like willing to 232 00:12:51.279 --> 00:12:53.320 do anything, and then you know, you have to eventually 233 00:12:53.399 --> 00:12:55.240 choose one, and that's where it gets boring. 234 00:12:55.720 --> 00:12:56.600 But but you don't. 235 00:12:56.639 --> 00:12:59.240 But you don't, I mean because your analogy is park 236 00:12:59.279 --> 00:13:01.679 and he is the most popular girl at the day. Yes, exactly, 237 00:13:02.440 --> 00:13:06.799 But but he was playing this so brilliantly and may 238 00:13:07.200 --> 00:13:12.519 return to the comforting genius what more, And it's not untrumpy. 239 00:13:12.559 --> 00:13:14.559 It would be very trumpy to say I like both 240 00:13:14.600 --> 00:13:17.039 of these. When Wesley Hunt was in there for no 241 00:13:17.320 --> 00:13:19.960 earthly reason, he said, I like all three guys because 242 00:13:20.000 --> 00:13:23.559 there's a reason to like all three guys. And there 243 00:13:23.679 --> 00:13:27.679 was just such wisdom and inner peace. If they're even 244 00:13:27.720 --> 00:13:30.159 such a thing as possible in this race to have 245 00:13:30.240 --> 00:13:34.759 a president who's respected by voters, for all the remaining 246 00:13:34.759 --> 00:13:38.960 candidates to say, look, I'm going to let Texans decide, 247 00:13:39.039 --> 00:13:43.279 and if President Trump rediscovers the value of that, to say, 248 00:13:43.279 --> 00:13:45.480 you know what, no matter how this works out, I'm 249 00:13:45.480 --> 00:13:48.320 going to have an ally in the Senate. Let's let 250 00:13:48.399 --> 00:13:51.360 Texans decide. I'd like to think there's still a non 251 00:13:51.519 --> 00:13:53.000 zero chance of that happened. 252 00:13:53.440 --> 00:13:56.440 I would just like to say if Susan Combe's former 253 00:13:56.519 --> 00:14:00.279 Texas politician and romance novelists would like to write that novel. 254 00:14:00.559 --> 00:14:03.360 It's a publicity right there. Yeah, yeah, the first Texas. 255 00:14:03.360 --> 00:14:05.679 But I mean also Paxton, I think is playing this 256 00:14:05.840 --> 00:14:08.840 very well in that he probably the longer this goes 257 00:14:08.840 --> 00:14:12.120 without an endorsement, it's sort of with this common wisdom 258 00:14:12.159 --> 00:14:14.720 that Cornyn is going to get the nod. The longer 259 00:14:14.759 --> 00:14:17.879 Trump doesn't endorse, the more it's sort of a nod 260 00:14:17.960 --> 00:14:20.519 to Paxton, right of, like well maybe I'm considering maybe, 261 00:14:20.840 --> 00:14:23.639 And he gets to post stuff on social media like, well, 262 00:14:23.679 --> 00:14:26.360 perhaps I can be the king maker of the Save Act, 263 00:14:26.399 --> 00:14:29.840 which is, as you said, eventual ammunition of you know, 264 00:14:30.320 --> 00:14:33.320 I'm you know, I'm sort of I'm playing three D 265 00:14:33.559 --> 00:14:36.080 chess and I'm not even in the Senate yet. 266 00:14:36.720 --> 00:14:41.240 Completely right, Because the Cornan endorsement, I mean that that 267 00:14:41.320 --> 00:14:44.759 writing was on the wall in sharpie from some people. 268 00:14:44.759 --> 00:14:47.240 I was getting text after text it's coming now. Some 269 00:14:47.279 --> 00:14:50.679 of it was wishful think coming from Cornan supporters, but 270 00:14:50.759 --> 00:14:53.120 for others it was those who either ambivalund or actually 271 00:14:53.200 --> 00:14:56.240 Ken supporters who kind of went get whatever mood this 272 00:14:56.320 --> 00:14:58.919 gave them. It's like, boy, it really really looks like 273 00:14:58.960 --> 00:15:03.159 a Cornan endorsement mere hours away. Then when it suddenly 274 00:15:03.399 --> 00:15:06.960 was not clearly there was a reason for that. There 275 00:15:07.000 --> 00:15:09.000 would have been a reason for it to happen. There 276 00:15:09.039 --> 00:15:12.720 was an obvious reason why it did not, And the 277 00:15:12.799 --> 00:15:16.080 only possible reason for it not to happen is Trump 278 00:15:16.159 --> 00:15:20.559 had second thoughts about endorsing Cornyn, which is an absolute 279 00:15:20.720 --> 00:15:23.519 great news cycle for Paxton. Now, the news cycles are 280 00:15:23.519 --> 00:15:26.200 going to come thick and fast now, and what happens 281 00:15:26.240 --> 00:15:29.799 today or tomorrow or the next could reshuffle everything. But 282 00:15:30.000 --> 00:15:33.000 for this hiccup of time, you have it exactly right. 283 00:15:33.279 --> 00:15:37.519 So Texas election Code says that you can, if you 284 00:15:37.559 --> 00:15:39.759 were at make a runoff, you can drop off and 285 00:15:39.799 --> 00:15:43.960 remove yourself from the ballot by three days after the canvas. 286 00:15:44.240 --> 00:15:47.200 The canvas has to happen March fifteenth, So we're talking 287 00:15:47.240 --> 00:15:51.679 about really a March eighteenth deadline for an endorsement and 288 00:15:51.720 --> 00:15:52.759 for someone to drop off. 289 00:15:52.919 --> 00:15:55.200 And I have to imagine Donald Trump has that circled 290 00:15:55.200 --> 00:15:55.639 in red. 291 00:15:56.399 --> 00:15:59.080 There's no world in which he's gonna, you know, not 292 00:15:59.159 --> 00:15:59.679 factor that. 293 00:16:00.120 --> 00:16:02.240 My goodness, it's the Texas election Code. 294 00:16:02.399 --> 00:16:04.440 Yeah, all right, So let's. 295 00:16:05.279 --> 00:16:07.600 Again, and there's two things true at the same time. 296 00:16:07.679 --> 00:16:10.879 Number one, very useful information on the Texas election Code. 297 00:16:11.039 --> 00:16:16.200 Number two completely irrelevant because no one is going youwhere 298 00:16:16.240 --> 00:16:19.879 On May twenty six, Cornyn will be there, Paxton will 299 00:16:19.919 --> 00:16:22.440 be there, and the following morning one of them will 300 00:16:22.480 --> 00:16:23.399 no longer be there. 301 00:16:23.480 --> 00:16:25.759 All right, So okay, so I want to drill into this. 302 00:16:25.960 --> 00:16:29.559 You are certain that there's nothing that Trump could do 303 00:16:29.759 --> 00:16:34.600 to get Ken Paxton out of this race, including okay, 304 00:16:34.600 --> 00:16:39.799 because my my fan fiction scenario here is, oh, here 305 00:16:39.840 --> 00:16:45.240 we go is Trump appoints Paxton to some confirmable position 306 00:16:45.600 --> 00:16:48.360 at which point what I don't know, I don't know. 307 00:16:48.559 --> 00:16:51.600 Appoints him to because live listen, I because now I've 308 00:16:51.639 --> 00:16:53.279 played this game for a couple of weeks. 309 00:16:53.360 --> 00:16:53.559 Yeah. 310 00:16:54.120 --> 00:16:56.960 Well, in fact, let's let's fill in the blanks. Hey, 311 00:16:57.320 --> 00:17:00.720 he fires Pam Bonding and makes him a jorney general. 312 00:17:01.759 --> 00:17:05.119 Ken Paxton appears to be there. There must be some 313 00:17:05.200 --> 00:17:07.759 golden take. Well, it's called a track record, an enviable 314 00:17:07.799 --> 00:17:10.799 track record that his fan base absolutely loves. That fan 315 00:17:10.920 --> 00:17:13.599 base does not extend to the United States Congress. Can 316 00:17:13.720 --> 00:17:15.960 anybody imagine a world in which it's a good idea 317 00:17:15.960 --> 00:17:19.400 for Ken Paxton to go through confirmation hearings? Right? Please? 318 00:17:19.960 --> 00:17:22.680 So he's not going to be named, there's no ambassadorship, 319 00:17:22.920 --> 00:17:25.839 there's nothing, you know, you know, ambassador to the Moon. 320 00:17:26.160 --> 00:17:29.640 There's there's nothing that is as big a prize as 321 00:17:29.680 --> 00:17:31.839 the US Senate seat that he keeps. So there is 322 00:17:31.880 --> 00:17:35.079 no stop that can be thrown, no side offer. It's 323 00:17:35.079 --> 00:17:37.240 not that it's not but you describe something that happens 324 00:17:37.559 --> 00:17:41.880 all the time. It's a completely worthy plot line, but 325 00:17:42.319 --> 00:17:43.880 not in this case. It's not. 326 00:17:44.039 --> 00:17:46.000 All right. Well, but but what you're taking away from 327 00:17:46.039 --> 00:17:48.599 me is the decision that Cornyan would have to make 328 00:17:48.839 --> 00:17:52.960 about whether to confirm, vote to confirm Ken Paxton ory 329 00:17:53.039 --> 00:17:57.720 too clear up his his Senate seat, you know, despite 330 00:17:57.759 --> 00:18:00.039 having for the last two years calling him basically the 331 00:18:00.039 --> 00:18:00.920 worst person on earth. 332 00:18:01.000 --> 00:18:04.759 But hey, I mean A to B Yeah, well, let mean, Mark, 333 00:18:04.799 --> 00:18:06.160 one thing you said that stood out to me that 334 00:18:06.200 --> 00:18:08.640 I do want to ask about, which is that you know, 335 00:18:08.680 --> 00:18:11.160 you're saying that President Trump, who is I mean just 336 00:18:11.319 --> 00:18:14.799 this extremely powerful figure in the Texas GOP, I mean 337 00:18:14.799 --> 00:18:18.279 the GOP nationally, that if he were to endorse Cornan, 338 00:18:18.440 --> 00:18:21.839 that there are people a subset of people who feel 339 00:18:21.920 --> 00:18:25.839 more strongly about Paxton than they do about Trump, or 340 00:18:25.839 --> 00:18:28.079 they would be more loyals to Paxton than Trump. 341 00:18:28.799 --> 00:18:31.079 Yeah, of course there are, and with good reason, because 342 00:18:31.279 --> 00:18:34.000 it would be so many things are kind of binary, 343 00:18:34.039 --> 00:18:38.079 switch on, switch off, all black hole white. Let's look 344 00:18:38.119 --> 00:18:44.160 at the emotional complexity for a Paxton supporter of Trump 345 00:18:44.279 --> 00:18:48.480 endorsing Cornet. Would that Paxton supporter then go, well, screw that, 346 00:18:48.559 --> 00:18:51.680 I'm done with Trump. Of course not. It would be 347 00:18:51.720 --> 00:18:56.160 a triangulation in which the Paxton supporting Texans would say, 348 00:18:56.480 --> 00:18:59.319 mister President, I've kind of said this more. We love you, 349 00:18:59.400 --> 00:19:01.400 we're glad you're there, we pray for you every day, 350 00:19:02.000 --> 00:19:05.960 but on this particular thing, sir, we respectfully are going 351 00:19:05.960 --> 00:19:09.119 to vote for Ken Paxton anyway. And it's for the 352 00:19:09.160 --> 00:19:12.319 same reasons that we support you and love you and 353 00:19:12.400 --> 00:19:16.880 cherish you and are glad you're there. The outsider, the fighter, 354 00:19:17.279 --> 00:19:21.799 the trailblazer, the rattler of establishment cages. It is the 355 00:19:22.400 --> 00:19:24.720 same list. The list of reasons why we love you 356 00:19:25.160 --> 00:19:27.480 is the list of reasons why we love Ken. So 357 00:19:27.559 --> 00:19:29.559 you go ahead and endorsed corn and all you want, 358 00:19:29.839 --> 00:19:31.599 and we'll be voting for Ken anyway. 359 00:19:31.640 --> 00:19:34.160 Thank you very All right, Well, let's let's consult the 360 00:19:34.200 --> 00:19:37.920 polls here. This is from Texas Public Opinion research released yesterday, 361 00:19:37.960 --> 00:19:42.440 March ninth. Admittedly, Texas Public Opinion Research is run by 362 00:19:42.440 --> 00:19:42.920 a Democrat. 363 00:19:43.039 --> 00:19:45.119 Luke Warford was popping off on Twitter. 364 00:19:45.200 --> 00:19:47.000 Yeah who and who? Who? You know was on the 365 00:19:47.000 --> 00:19:49.279 podcast a couple of weeks ago. So if you want 366 00:19:49.319 --> 00:19:51.279 to take this with a grain of salt, feel free 367 00:19:51.319 --> 00:19:52.839 to take it with a grain of salt. But here 368 00:19:53.039 --> 00:19:57.000 is what the poll said. Paxton leads Cornyan forty to 369 00:19:57.079 --> 00:19:59.680 forty one percent in a runoff. That's an eight point 370 00:19:59.680 --> 00:20:03.759 at vance with eleven percent undecided. If Trump were to 371 00:20:03.960 --> 00:20:08.319 endorse Cornyan, Paxon would still lead forty four percent to 372 00:20:08.359 --> 00:20:13.079 forty three percent. A Trump endorsement of Paxton would widen 373 00:20:13.400 --> 00:20:17.200 Paxton's lead from fifty eight percent to thirty two percent. 374 00:20:19.079 --> 00:20:23.799 The thing I wonder about here, though, is I don't 375 00:20:23.799 --> 00:20:27.720 think all Trump endorsements are created equally, right, Like, sometimes 376 00:20:27.759 --> 00:20:31.000 he fires off the truth social post and then you know, 377 00:20:31.119 --> 00:20:35.000 mispronounces the candidate's name at a speech, you know, and 378 00:20:35.079 --> 00:20:38.240 people can kind of credibly make the case like they 379 00:20:38.240 --> 00:20:40.279 don't know he doesn't even know who this guy is 380 00:20:40.640 --> 00:20:43.039 like this, you know, someone's in his ear, but it 381 00:20:43.039 --> 00:20:45.359 doesn't actually reflect the like true belief of. 382 00:20:46.839 --> 00:20:47.200 Trump. 383 00:20:47.640 --> 00:20:50.880 That would not be the situation here. And if he 384 00:20:51.039 --> 00:20:54.519 were to, you know, follow through on his push to 385 00:20:54.720 --> 00:20:58.839 have a Paxton in this scenario drop out. It would 386 00:20:58.839 --> 00:21:02.759 be a situation where Packson is openly defying Trump, something 387 00:21:02.799 --> 00:21:06.000 that Trump clearly doesn't like and often causes him to 388 00:21:06.000 --> 00:21:10.319 go on the attack. And so, you know, what this 389 00:21:10.359 --> 00:21:12.559 poll seems to be measuring is like, how do you 390 00:21:12.599 --> 00:21:15.960 vote if this is you know, if Trump endorses this way? 391 00:21:16.240 --> 00:21:18.480 But I think there's another question of like, how would 392 00:21:18.519 --> 00:21:20.920 you vote if one of the candidates is in like 393 00:21:21.119 --> 00:21:24.240 open warfare with the sitting president of the United States 394 00:21:24.240 --> 00:21:27.079 and standard bearer for the party. Maybe that creates a 395 00:21:27.119 --> 00:21:27.880 different situation. 396 00:21:28.920 --> 00:21:32.519 Okay that that would not happen. Let's do that. Okay, 397 00:21:32.519 --> 00:21:34.440 you just drawn it's just not going to happen. And 398 00:21:34.440 --> 00:21:37.000 then we'll go to the very interesting poll numbers, which 399 00:21:37.000 --> 00:21:38.640 I do take with a grain of salt, but it 400 00:21:38.640 --> 00:21:40.920 doesn't mean they are of no value. First of all, 401 00:21:41.000 --> 00:21:45.599