Speaker 1: And hello, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast
on this Friday. Today's the twenty second day of May.
Year of our Ward, twenty twenty six. My name is
Tom Sullivan. And well, we've got kind of a busy Friday,
a getaway Friday for well a lot. Actually, what I
saw on the roads that I traveled yesterday it was
getaway Thursday. But historically three day weekend is probably a
four day weekend. And I don't know what people push
it the other way, but it is it is travel weekend.
And that ties us in with gas and gas prices
and the average the average price which again it's an
average four dollars and fifty five cents with the cheap stuff.
This is the national average for you truckers and farmers
that buy diesel five dollars sixty five cents. Both of
those are down a penny from yesterday, but they're up
four cents from gases up four cents from a week ago.
Diesel is down two cents from a week ago. So
it's kind of flattening out in here, but we're in.
The predictions are that asks the straight of horror moves
continues to be closed at the price of gas and
oil and everything that's associated with it will continue to
go higher. Seems like it's kind of tapping out, but
don't count on it. California, I'm sorry. Six dollars and
thirteen cents. Is the average for you diesel in California
is seven dollars forty one cents. There isn't a state,
not one that is under four dollars, So everybody's four
or five, or in California six or seven. So Triple
A says forty five million people are traveling this weekend,
and thirty nine million by car, just about four million
by air, the rest to take a train or a
bust or whatever it might be. I look at this
and I go thirty nine million by car, So obviously
we have not hit demand destruction. People are still willing
to pay the high price to get their gallon of gas,
and it just hasn't shown up. People are I don't know,
maybe after Memorial Day people will start slowing down, but
it's it's summer driving season, so and with prices expected
to continue to go higher, I don't know. Oh it's
funny because out in California, the Governor, Gavin Newsom, he
did this a few years back, he blamed the oil
companies for higher prices, and he set up a group
or a commission or something. They were going to go
in and investigate I think it was through their Attorney
General's office in California. They were going to go investigate
price gouging by the oil companies. And we never heard
another word. They've done this besides California, they do price
gouging investigations and for some reason to come back and
find out, well, huh, the market price, the market push
prices higher. So anyway, so now the governor in California
has got a new idea and this is this is
dirty pool. Chevron was a California headquartered company. They have,
like many corporations, they have moved their Chevron forever a
California company. If you're in California, the Chevron stations every
three blocks. I mean, they are a huge oil company
in California, nationwide too, but especially in California. They used
to be headquartered in San Francisco, not anymore. So they
moved and Gavin Newsom is going to pick on them,
he said. He sent out a tweet saying do not
buy gasoline from Chevron, and he accuses them of charging
too much. So Steve Hilton, who is running for governor
of California, said this.
Speaker 2: We're importing not just crude oil, but gasoline because we
don't have the refinery capacity anymore and we're not producing
our own sable just off the coast of Santa Barbara
actually one of the largest deposits in the country now
second only to the Permium Basin by some estimates, completely
blocks by Gavin USM. Everywhere you look, they're standing in
the way of the kind of growth and opportunity that
we could be having.
Speaker 1: It's true they import almost all of their oil from
foreign sources. They get oil shipped from the Middle East
all the way over to California, and then California has
the highest state gas to axe. It's for a bunch
of different causes and funds that they've set up over
the years, but they are the reason why California is
so much more expensive is a they import their oil.
California is blessed with oil fields and yet they won't
tap them and off the coast. That's another whole story.
But they've got tons of oil off the coast of California.
Years ago they used to have. You could see the
drilling rigs out there. But in any case, so California
has lots of oil, but they won't tap it. They
import it from foreign sources. They lay all kinds of
taxes on top of it. And Gavin Newsom blames Chevron,
and it's interesting he's blamed something. He's mad at Chevron
because they picked up and moved and they basically made
him look foolish. The refineries, they used to have lots
of refineries. I think they're down to two, and they
have a requirement that they have a special blend of
gasoline that is only sold in California. It's no so
they have to have their own refineries. Make this what
I call designer gas, designer fuel. It's designed specifically for California.
Has to do with their pollution and all of that
that they used to have in LA. So they've got
lots of rules and regulations that are making their gas
more expensive. And for those of you that are driving
in California, I'm sorry, but it's not Chevron. It's a
guy by the name of Newsome. And I find it
weird that he's picking on Chevron as opposed to why
didn't he name Exxon and Mobile and Shell and a
bunch of others in any case. So Patrick Jahan, the
head of gas Buddy that keeps track of the gas
prices for Triple A, was asked about these high prices.
Speaker 3: Well, Traditionally, when gas prices go up in such a
sharp motion for a sustained period of time, it really
does take motorists a lot more to want to hit
the road. And you know, our survey found that there
is going to be a slight drop in some of
that summer travel, but Americans hold very steadfast when you
look at gas prices in the summer, the three months
that Americans get to take off time from school and work,
when we're talking about some of the best weather over
the course of the year, Americans really aren't going to
slow down much when faced with gas prices at these levels.
Even if prices go higher, the feel index of what
we're experiencing is still dramatically better than two thousand and
eight when people started to get out their bike, walk
and do those types of things. Americans are still only
spending about six minutes to buy a gallon of gas.
Back in two thousand and eight, it hit almost eleven
minutes to buy a gallon of gas.
Speaker 1: So he's talking about the six minutes that you work.
It equals the same amount a cost of a gallon
of gas or eleven minutes, whatever it might be. So
Patrick was asked, anything that the government can do hint hint,
dropping the federal gas to x.
Speaker 3: Maybe the Trump administration's basically pulled every lever that they can,
from the Jones Act waiver to the E fifteen waiver
to a summer gasoline waiver. None of the waivers really
has much impact when you're talking about so much of
the world's supply being through the strait of war moves.
So the federal gas, if Congress doesn't prove it, that
would add up to about eighteen cents a gallon of
potentially lowering prices, and diesel for twenty four cents. But
even at eighteen cent reduction, you're still talking about gas
prices well in excess to four dollars a gallon. And
by the way, the longer the straight remains closed, we
still could see the national average climbing through the summer.
July fourth could feature a national average of over five
dollars a gallon. Should the Straight of Horn Moves remain
closed and that's really what we're hinging on the entire summer.
Whether we see record prices, really all that has to
do with whether the strait is closed or open.
Speaker 1: So enjoy your Memorial Day. We can get. Fourth of
July is coming up quick, and he's talking about over
five dollars for everybody on average. That'd be at least
a fifty fifty cent hike. Meantime, let's go to where
they price all of this oil, and that's the commodities
trading at the CME in Chicago. Phil Flynn's one of
the oil traders.
Speaker 4: You know, I the volatility is crazy. It's I feel
like whack them all every headline it's like bye bye,
it's crazy, right, But I will say there's some hope
in the price of oil. Every time it looks like
we're get a peace deal or we're going to get
an end to this, prices plummet. You know, we saw
the price of gas lane. They've been creeping up every
day because of this war. But as soon as we've
got a piece deal on the futures market, they felt
fifteen to twenty cents a gallon. So what that tells
me is that if we do get a revolution. Gas
prices will come down fast. That will take the pressure
off inflation, and I think we're going to get a
long term benefit, you know, from taking away the terror
risk from Iran. So that's why these these talks are
critically important. We can't allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon.
We can't allow them to hold the world hostage in
the Strait of Hormuz, you know, as a toll, and
that's going to be a non starter. But regardless of
what happens with these talks, I believe the end is
near one way or another. Either our rand cuts a
deal and gives in and gives up the uranium opens
up the straight or I'm afraid it'll be the end
of the regime.
Speaker 1: Well he's hoping it in soon, but he doesn't know.
I don't know, you don't know. We just hope that
it ends soon. In the meantime, he was also talking
about since he trades commodities, which includes currencies, he was
remarking about Kevin Walsh. Kevin Walsh was sworn in as
the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board today in
the White House, first time since the eighties. I think
it must have been Alan Greenspan was the last one
to be sworn in by the President at the White House,
so there was a big ceremony there. And Kevin worsh
is now the new chairman of the FED. He was
sworn in by Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. So back
to Phil Flynn on his view what the commodities traders
think about Kevin Walsh.
Speaker 4: You know, it's a breadth of fresh air for a
lot of the traders and the markets because they're relieved
to see a change at the helmet the FED, because
they've been very critical of a lot of the decisions
that Jerome pal made. You know, Jerome Paula is going
to go down in history sadly as the man at
the FED that said inflation's transitory, nothing to see here.
And later in his term, you know, he became the
guy that seemed very political. You know, it seemed you know,
at the end of his tenure, you know, when it
became clear to a lot of people, even at the FED,
that they should be cutting rates. He was stubborn, you know,
and he fought against that and in his supporters and
the FED did so as well, and a lot of
the traders viewed that more as political payback to Trump
just because he didn't want to give Donald Trump and Ash.
Kevin Worrish comes in with experience. He's a guy that
was ahead of the curve on the housing crisis. He
warned everybody it was going to happen.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 4: He's also a proponent of you know, extraordinary stimuli list
but also a proponent of knowing when to cut it off.
So I think that's why the market is happy. We
needed some fresh air and this is going to give
us a lot of it.
Speaker 1: Well, I agree with Phil. The more the president tried
to interfere with the Fed, the more the especially Jerome Powell,
pushed back. That's why a lot of all presidents, I
think one interest rates to go down. But the more
the president pushed and well threatened, the more they dug
their heels in at the Fed and probably would have
lowered interest rates faster, sooner if it wasn't for the
prodding by the president. That's why most presidents bite their lips.
But that's not part of Donald Trump's DNA made time
the war. Let's get caught up with that. This is
the question now about this weekend where don Donald Trump
Junior getting married Saturday tomorrow in the Bahamas, and the
President said he can't go, but he kind of woppled
a little bit on that. A lot of people think,
why can't you go to your son's wedding on Saturday?
What's going on on Saturday? Why you need to be
at the White House? Hint, hint, Well here's the President
talking about it.
Speaker 5: He'd like, mindy go, I'm just going to be just
a slow, little private affair, and I'm going to try
and make it. I'm in the midst, I said, you know,
this is not good timing for me. I have a
thing called rad and other things. That's when I can't
win on. If I do attend, I get killed. If
I don't attend, I get killed by the Frank News.
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, so this is Don Junior's
second marriage, so maybe that's part of it. But in
any case, I don't think somebody would kill him because
of the fact get mad at him. Fake news would
get mad at him about not going to his son's wedding.
But it makes you wonder, why is there something else
important going on? Meantime, let's get to Brett Murger find
out what he thinks about the current status, Fred.
Speaker 6: We're heading into a really pivotal week. I mean right
now we're in a stalemate, a chance for diplomacy. I
would watch for Assu Munir, the Pakistani army chief. Where
is he because he has said I will only go
to Iran if we might be close. Some reports this
morning he might be heading to Iran, So I keep
an eye on that. But even though the diplomacy is
very stuck, because the two things we want open the
Strait of Hormuz and turn over the highly inners geranium,
Iran is really holding on to and it's a card
they believe they have. They think they have power in
their hands, and the price they will demand for those
two things will be extremely high. So I would put
low odds on a breakthrough deal. And the next week, Fred,
just to put this set the context, will be the
annual pilgrimage to Mecca and the haj Unlikely you'll see
a renewal of military acts during the next week, but
once you get into the end of the month, if
there's not a deal, I think that window opens again.
So that could be why the President's staying in Washington
for consultations.
Speaker 1: Hajj is huge, especially it's an annual event for Muslims,
and so that may be the reason is the religious
ceremonies that go on that they'll wait until after those
are over. As far as the status of what's going
on in run Well, Brett McGirk continues to repeat, it's
a stalemate in Iran.
Speaker 6: We have a stalemate and one thing there to ties
in Russia and China. Sector Rubio said today we're working
on a UN Security Council resolution. It has more countries
than ever endorsing this resolution calling on Iran to open
the straight of her moves. If you get that resolution,
it allows the Europeans to come into the mission to
try to open the straight of her moves. That would
be very important. But Russian and China are threatening to
veto that resolution because they are very much standing I
think behind the Iranians here and then on Cuba, if
passes Prolofe, it seems like a replay of Venezuela. There's
now an indictment against Robel Castro. We're moving forces. The
CIA chief was in Havana. Unclear what the demands are
of Cuba, but it seems like we're moving into something
there with coercive diplomacy for it to start in a
possible military operation. It's unclear to see what that would achieve.
But to do that, I think the President would like
a diplomatic off ramp on Iran. And that brings us
back to where we started. The Iranians have the cards
here of whether or not they're actually going to do
a deal that we can accept, and I think that's
going to be extremely difficult, but that'll play out over
the course of the next few days.
Speaker 1: In this week, okay, next few days or a week. Meantime,
let's get General Charles Wold in here. We haven't heard
much from him. What does he take of this?
Speaker 7: Well, I think we should try to have the GCC
Golf Cooperation Council States Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman
for that matter, participate with us. A little bit distressed
that o'mon is talking like they're going to have some
kind of collaboration with the ire Indians on a toll.
That's a thing's not going to happen.
Speaker 1: So we've been in this ceasefire for six long weeks. Everything,
Like Brett McGirk said, we are in a stalemate. What
does the general want to do now.
Speaker 7: Actually, I think it makes it more clear that we're
probably going to have to do some kinetic action go forward.
There's no way we're going to have a toll in
the Straights of Horror moves. As a secretary mentioned, that's
just out of the question. So going And I don't
think Oman's really part of that party, but you hear
this discussion, it's almost beyond ludicrous. There's no way that's
going to happen in the United States. Navy will stop
that in a heartbeat.
Speaker 1: And what about the NATO countries? Are they going to
participate in trying to keep that straight open?
Speaker 7: Well, I was in NATO for a large portion of
my career, and as you mentioned, I was a deputy
commander for the US Forces in NATO my last assignment.
I think NATO should be more actively involved in particularly
in the securing the Straits of Horror moves with US.
They're doing a good job for Ukraine. I get that,
but I think NATO, we've asked them. I think they
should anticipate and I agree.
Speaker 1: Well, guess where Secretary of State Marco Rubio is. He's
up in Scandinavia at a NATO meeting, and he's trying
to talk them into I think, helping out.
Speaker 8: But I'm saying Plan B needs to be whatever. Ron says. No,
we refuse to open the streets and someone's going to
have to go in and do something about it. That
doesn't mean we couldn't do it. We could, The United
States could do it. But there are countries that have
expressed an interest in potentially being a part of something
like that if in fact we get to that point.
We don't need their help, but they're willing to do it,
and I think we should take them up on it
if they are. But I don't think there's been any
firm commitments or firm asked today.
Speaker 7: It would be.
Speaker 8: Premature, but I just raised the issue that this is
something we may need to confront at some.
Speaker 1: Point, sort of thing the President has been talking about.
We don't need them, but we'd like to have them help,
but we don't need them meantime. John Bolton for UN ambassador,
former National Security advisor in Trump one point zero and
he's a hawk and he wants to be hockey on Iran.
Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 9: The Chinese obviously have allotted steak given their purchases of oil,
not just from Iran, but from the Saudis and the
Amiridis as well. I don't think it would necessarily be
helpful to us, though, because with Trump just after his
meeting with Jijun Ping making arm sales to Taiwan a
bargaining chip, I hate to see other elements come into
play here that would affect our position in the Pacific.
I think ultimately the only way to deal with the
Iranian regime certainly, and the question of oil and opening
the Strait of Hormuz is for the US and the
Gulf Arabs to force it open. I think that's the
only way to restore deterrence against to Ron turning access
to the straight on and off like a light switch.
This idea that they and the Omanis are negotiating what
toll rates will be in the like is unacceptable. The
other Golf Arb states have rejected that this morning, and
I think it shows a huge range of difference that
still exists between Iran on the one hand, and I
think not just the Gulf Arabs but the US on
the other.
Speaker 1: All Right, so, as assumed, John Bolton wants to use
the military and going there, but he doesn't want to
do a full fledge bomb him back to the dark ages.
Speaker 9: Well, I think if the operation were limited to pushing
back drone launching sites, going after fast boat protected harbor's
and that kind of thing, fairly limited boots on the ground. Yeah,
I think that might well be warranted. I think if
we could relieve the tension on the international economy by
providing access for Gulf Arab oil back out into international
markets while keeping the blockade on Iranian oil, that could
go a long way toward the pressuring the regime in
Tehran but eliminating the pressure on the global economy.
Speaker 1: Clear, John Bolton, if he had his way, he would
use the military to go and enforce us great open
and what he would do about getting the regime he
wants to do, regime change. He came out and said it.
So that's what's going on there. CIA view Dan Hoffman,
former CIA station chief in Moscow, here's his view. Yeah.
Speaker 10: I think the Iranians certainly have used this ceasefire which
has gone on for weeks now, to rearm and to reconstitute,
and meanwhile they shut down the Strait of Horrmus, disrupting
the global economy.
Speaker 1: That also gives them more leverage.
Speaker 10: Had we opened the Strait of horrorm moons and then
begun negotiating, we would have been the ones with greater leverage.
We don't just want the straight open, as Secretary of
Rubio has emphasized, we want to deal with Iran's nuclear
program as well as that highly enriched uranium we want
out of Iran.
Speaker 1: But in order of what we want first, the first
thing is to open the great or Hormones. Now that's
absolutely critical.
Speaker 10: The last thing we want is for Iran to be
able to extort the region and the rest of the
world by controlling the Strait of Horrmuz international transit there
with a chokehold on the global economy and taking in
money that they can use to fund their weapons programs
as well as their proxy terrorists in the region. We
are clearly right now at an inflection point. We may
proceed with negotiations, but Iran has not negotiated in good
faith to this point. Remember that's why we deployed our
military assets to the region in February, and it's why
we launched those kinetic strikes on Iran starting on February
twenty eighth.
Speaker 1: Now we really are stalled, aren't we. I mean we
are just stalled. And the problem is, as every day
that goes by where there's a stall, the world's economy
keeps going downhill, and oil and gas prices keep going up,
Inflation keeps going up, interest rates keep going up. So
bring they've finished the job, get this thing done, so
we can all move on, all right, of keeping track
of things. Global news this afternoon that Tulsi Gabbard, the
Director of National Intelligence, has sent a letter to the
White House saying that she is resigning. Here's the alert
coming from David Spunt over at Box.
Speaker 11: Now.
Speaker 12: We are told that Tulsi Gabbard is resigning effective June
thirtieth because of her husband's recent diagnosis of an aggressive
form of bone cancer. Our thoughts, of course, are with
miss Gabbard and her family. Director Gabbard and her husband Abraham.
She said that Abraham has been her rock since they've
been married, and she submitted her resignation letter to the
President and two members of the Senior staff announcing that
her last day would be June thirtieth because of this
diagnosis of her husband's bone cancer. Unfortunately, this is something
that Gabbert says that she cannot continue to manage doing
two jobs in at that time. So she will continue
serving in the role of the Director of National Intelligence,
overseeing the CIA, National Security Council other agencies, but will
leave June thirtieth because of this tragic news of her
husband's bone cancer diagnosis. She helps him fight that over
the coming months.
Speaker 1: So we've got a few balls in the air. We've
got Iran obviously, We've got what are we going to
do about Cuba. We're still dealing with a temporary situation
in Venezuela. I don't even know if Greenland is still
on the list, But there's a lot going on when
it comes to national security, those are big shoes to fill.
So Byron York from Washington Examiner says his opinion of
what's going on well.
Speaker 11: Telsey Gabbert explained that her husband is seriously ill, so
this is a very important family reason for her to
leave her job now. At the same time, she has
never been really in line with the new sort of
interventionist Trump foreign policy, and there were reports that she
was kept out of the loop when decisions were made
on issues like Venezuela and Iran, so her leaving would
not be a huge surprise. Even if there were no
important family reason like this. Also, by the way, just
a couple of months ago, an ally of hers, Joe Kent,
had resigned in a very kind of splashy way, and
he accused President Trump of being led into war by Israel,
and he was quickly shot down by a lot of
administration officials, including the President himself. So that didn't help
really Gabber's standing. So even if there weren't this serious
family reason, I don't think it would be a huge
surprise for her to leave the administration.
Speaker 1: If a lot of people have been asking about that,
about who's going to be the next one, and a
lot of people guessed that Tulsi would be on the list.
But it's for serious, serious health problems with her husband.
It makes all the sense in the world. But like
Byron said, she has been an anti interventionist, which was
Trump one point zero, but is certainly not the same
in Trump two point zero. So speaking of President Trump,
he's got this. The left is calling it a slush fund,
but it's a fun setup to pay people that have
been harmed by the US government, and it's focused on
the Jans six crowd. So a big pushback. I told
you yesterday. The Senate is mad about it. They went home,
and so did the House because the Senate went home,
So they're gone until I think June tenth. In any case,
the whole idea behind this is a lot of the
senators are mad because as the President did not endorse
John Cornyn to be his pick for the Texas Senate race,
which is, by the way, Texas primary is next Tuesday,
So they're mad about that. They're also mad about the
senator from Louisiana, Bill Cassidy, also highly thought of, so
they're not in a mood to go along with what
the President wants. There's a lot of questions about the
guardrails on the one point eight billion dollar slush fund,
whatever you want to call it. Tom tell Us, who
is not running for reelection so he is a senator
that is willing to send zingers to the president, had.
Speaker 13: This look under what circumstances would it ever make sense
to provide restitution for people who are either pled guilty
or were found guilty on a court of law. These
people don't deserve restitution. They many of them deserve to
be in prison. Some of them deserve a pardon because
they were over prosecuted. But this is I mean, this
is just stupid on stilt.
Speaker 1: Stupid on stilt is the headlines. A lot of people
picked up. But he's not happy about it. He's not alone.
These are Republicans pushing back against the president's idea of
a one point eight billion dollar slash funds. Even Scott Jennings,
who is the conservative on CNN, usually defends the president
under any circumstance, not this time.
Speaker 14: Well, I'd certainly agree that anybody who assaults a police
officer should not be getting any payment. In fact, I
think they ought to have to pay the victims and
the victims family. I don't think anybody who goes after
cops directly ought to get any money at all.
Speaker 1: It's number one.
Speaker 13: Number two.
Speaker 14: I'm not surprised the presidents having trouble with the Senate
on this. A. He already had a few senators that
weren't happy with him, and B now there's a couple
more that have nothing to lose really by standing up
to him. So he's going to have some difficult legislative
affairs over the next few months. The next point is
it's one point only eight million dollars. I suspect some
members of Congress are going to want to talk to
him about that.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 14: On the other hand, it's absolutely true that some people
were over prosecuted, as Tom Tillis said. In fact, the
Supreme Court ruled that DOJ overreached with a specific statute
in hundreds of cases. Some people were swept up unfairly.
And I think if you have been treated unfairly by
the government, you ought to be able to apply for
some restitution. But whether this fund is the correct vehicle
for that, I think the Congress is going to want
to talk about that, and I'm not.
Speaker 13: Surprised the President's having trouble with it on Capitol Hill.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it really is the first pushback against him since
he'd been president one point zero and two point zero.
So with all of that busy Friday, busy getaway for
the holiday, I hope you have an opportunity to rest
and relax for the next three days we have. The
market was busy today. Let's take a look at the
closing numbers. Start with the Dow and low and behold,
there we are new record. The Dad Jones Industrial is
up two hundred and ninety four. It's at fifty thousand
and five seventy nine. That's a new record high. SMP
up twenty seven NASDAK up fifty gold felt thirty three
dollars down to four thousand and five oh nine, and
the price of oil was up this part of a
dollar ninety six dollars and some change for one barrel
of West Texas Intermediate. So have yourself a wonderful weekend,
wonderful Memorial Day. Remember, Memorial Day is about those who died.
This is not veterans. People get it confused. Veterans Day
is for everybody that served. Memorial Day is the veterans
who are the soldiers and sailors that died on the battlefield.
In fact, yesterday, at Arlington, they have an annual event
they put on since nineteen forty eight where actiduty soldiers
are sent over to Arlington with flags to put on
the grave of every single tombstone at Arlington. That adds
up to two hundred and fifty thousand flags at Arlington Cemetery.
Fifteen hundred soldiers were dispatched over there to put those out.
They've been doing that since nineteen forty eight. So if
you have a chance and there's a military section in
the graveyard cemetery near you. If you have a chance,
go pay some holage. Thank you to you for coming
by today, Enjoy your long weekend, and we'll be back
next week. I hope to see you there