Speaker 1: This is the in This League Fantasy Podcast network. In
This League Fantasy Baseball podcast online at in this League
dot com. Now here's your host, Bogman and the Welsh.
What's up?
Speaker 2: Friends, are welcome into the in This League Fantasy Baseball Podcast.
I'm the Welsh, that is Scott Bogman, and today on
the episode, we are getting into some pitching focus. We've
got some trends in the positive direction and in the
negative direction. A bunch of pitchers we're going to be
talking about with some stats to be pushing them up
forward down. Well, let's be talking about the latest news
around baseball to start pitchers and more. That is what
we have got in store for you. And while you're
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Will somebody give that poor dog a hot dog? Please
do it right now, I've never seen a sadurface. I
want nothing. I want to pet that dog.
Speaker 3: Do you think that dog is not a liar? Like
every dog? I feel like I feel like that dog
definitely had a hot dog gaming before.
Speaker 2: Most privileged dog. He was at a ballgame.
Speaker 3: By the way he was.
Speaker 2: He was at a ballgame like.
Speaker 3: This because I wasn't at a game.
Speaker 2: I wasn't at the I can't afford the game. He
can afford the game. He just couldn't get the hot dog.
He probably ate like seven hot dogs before. But dude,
hat tip to UH to mL hat tip to the
Marlins for embracing everybody that was like, you know, this
is what I love the Internet and da da da
great meme worthy stuff, but also embracing. They put him
on a wanted poster and they want to treat him to.
Speaker 3: A whole dog day.
Speaker 2: It's great advertisement. I mean, probably more dogs in that
ballpark than people, most advertisement that ballpark's and a kid
in the positive advertising than anything. But I'm I'm I
don't like I saw something that said they found him,
and then I've just i feel like I've seen nothing,
but like everybody is still searching for him. So I
don't really understand what's happening, but we need to get
that dog all the hot dogs that he's ever wanted.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I feel like they'll find the dog,
the dog will have a huge day at the ballpark,
and it'll still be getting more baseball stuff than you
and I get. So, but it was. It was a
cool thing to see. So almost as cool as like,
I feel like the internet has been pretty good last
couple weeks, like with the World Cup being here and
everybody enjoying America and realizing that not everyone here is
crazy is pretty cool. So uh that just the internet
has been pretty good.
Speaker 2: Oh, yeah, Sophie, it's the greatest meme maybe I've ever seen.
You know what, I have not seen a single person
miss on the Sophie Cunningham meme. The NBA player she's
doing the pointing. She's great. The meme is great, every
single one. It might be it might be the greatest
meme of all time, Like everything works for it. You're right,
there's been.
Speaker 3: Uh to the menu when I can't pronounce what I want?
Speaker 2: Whatever you want to do?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Whatever you it could be Welsh pointing at piece of
PA when piece of Pa says we told you so,
Like whatever you want to do, like any of those,
you can have the House of the Dragon memes the
day before. We're really great. It is a really it's
a good meme time right now, which means something horrible
is about happened for sure. Wow, sure, yeah, you know,
I think we've in Venezuela right right, we've covered a
horrible bank.
Speaker 3: Enough, right, I think it's time to start cashing some
of those checks.
Speaker 2: All right, Well, get that dog a hot dog and
then we're going to be talking. We're going to be
for sure. I am I am fir.
Speaker 3: That's when we know the Internet is fixed and the
country when that dog gets its hot dog.
Speaker 2: One hundred percent you are right, Yeah, the world is
turning when that poort not gas prices, yeah, not anything.
It is that dog is eating a beautiful stinky glizzy.
Speaker 3: That's my UFC two fifty.
Speaker 2: So that dog dog versus hot dogs?
Speaker 3: How many hot dog eating hot dogs over Joey Chestnut
eating hot dogs?
Speaker 2: Oh, that would be that, you know what, that would
be the thing they should do, though, they should actually
have Joey Chestnut come in. Well, that dog most dog.
Here's the problem with that, Like, who can eat four
hot dogs faster? But do you think that dog would
ever stop? Like you'd probably know if you put.
Speaker 3: Well, that's what I'm saying, Like it would kill the dog.
That's why it has to be who can eat four
hot dogs faster? That dog or Joey Chestnut. That's what
the thing needs to be.
Speaker 2: That dog is rap.
Speaker 3: That's the rule, that's the goal. Now, this is what
we do.
Speaker 2: This is America, all right. So fun that was a
fun thing. A lot of crazy stuff around baseball too.
We're gonna be like I mentioned before, dog's got a
good list of some trends looking at the different statistical
trends of pitchers month over month and like, you know,
some guys that have really popped. It will give us
a good conversation piece. Lots of news out there today itself.
By the way, games already going underway. We had an
almost no hitter and then in the same game we
ended up having a three homer shot. The Rays went
to what was it, Bogs? Was it the ninth or
the eight?
Speaker 3: It was the ninth.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they had a piggyback thing where and Seymour was
the second on the piggyback. And then Craig Kimbrel came
in in the ninth. They had a combined no hitter
going on, and then he proceeds to give up two
earned runs as you do as a Craig Kimberl would do.
That's what he as you do, and he gave up
that one home run. But in the same game the
game was so out of tow. We were laughing about
this because I picked Juter Kimerenero yesterday for our home
run contest. He hit three today and one of them
was off with Tyler Tolbert because the game was so
out of hand. So Junior Cameronara with a three for five,
six RBI, three homer day getting what was that up
to his nineteenth home run, obliterating it. Dude. We keep
getting so close to these combined no hitters. That's like
two in the last week. We just can't finish it.
Speaker 3: Or four homer game. We're a homer away from a
four homer game. But yeah, almost your favorite thing in
the world, to combine no hitter. Is it a shock
that Craig Kimberl was the guy that gave up the
two run over to blow it at the end. Not
a shock at all to me.
Speaker 2: I don't know what he was actually just interviewed too,
and he was just like.
Speaker 3: An idio job available for him somewhere a booth, dude, somewhere, Dude.
Speaker 2: Liam Hendrix is still going. You know, Liam Hendricks just
got added to the Cubs like ACL roster out there
like Kimberland. Hint, they're still just they're letting it rule.
Speaker 3: I mean, Liam Hendricks had extenuating circumstances to why he's
not playing.
Speaker 2: No, I understand that, but I'm just saying, like.
Speaker 3: Like it. I guess it's not surprising that Liam Hendrix,
who a lot like Craig Kimbrel seems to clearly not
have it anymore, is still trying where Craig Kimberl hasn't
had it since the Alec Thomas bomb.
Speaker 2: I mean to do my thing that I've done, I'm
just obsessed with. Is Is Craig Kimberl a Hall of Famer?
Is that like a lock? He won Rookie of the Year,
nine time All Star?
Speaker 3: Are we gonna give him any free world series like
we did with Bryce Harper? I can't remember if that
was you or man. I don't know if that was
you or me either, I'm pretty sure, and I apologize
I was incorrect. For whatever reason, I was getting Bryce
Harper and Wan Soto mixed up because they're both super
young when they came up with the Nationals. So I
don't know, I'm just stupid.
Speaker 2: I know I said MVP. I just don't know if
I said it right or wrong. He went NLCS MVP.
We got that wrong. But Craig Kimbell did win a
World Series, and I don't know what role age relief.
I guess that's Reliever of the Year.
Speaker 3: That's yeah, that's like the I mean, that is the
relievers young.
Speaker 2: Will you do this for me real quick? Will you
pull up Billy Wagner? Yeah, okay, because let's put up
let's pull up a Hall of Fame relief pitcher, and
let's do some comparisons because we all get kind of lost.
Sometimes I get lost when I think about guy's careers,
especially when it kind of fades. Craig Kimberl obviously was
an absolutely dominant guy. But the problem is is like
for the last like six years, it's been pretty rough.
Let's go through real quick and do some comparisons. How
many years did Billy Wagner play.
Speaker 3: It looks like fifteen sixteen seasons.
Speaker 2: Okay, seventeen for Kimberl? Does it? Looking there? Can you
see his war just as I'm just curious right next
to under years if you go to the bottom and
you see, I'm on Baseball Reference, I don't know. Twenty
four okay, twenty two point six? What was Billy Wagner's
career era?
Speaker 3: His career ra was two three one.
Speaker 2: Two six four? How many games?
Speaker 3: Uh, eight hundred and fifty three, eight.
Speaker 2: Hundred and seventy for Kimberl Now now the big one.
How many saves for Billy Wagner?
Speaker 3: Four hundred and twenty two four forty?
Speaker 2: So that's the Hall of Famer?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: Maybe maybe everybody knew that immediately, Like I knew he
was in that rank.
Speaker 3: I just didn't.
Speaker 2: I knew he was close part that, that's a no
doubt if But what is you're.
Speaker 3: You're right there? What's his era been over the last
three seasons? Okay? Because I'm sure it was bad for
Billy at the end too.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty four was five point it was five point
three two point twenty five last year, very very only
fourteen games this year it's five point two to one.
Speaker 3: I'll tell you this, Billy Wagner had an era over
two point eight five once ever in his career. So
what do you at point one eight?
Speaker 2: What do you think Kimberll's going for? Still, like when
I mean out instead of getting your paychecks, it's nice
to keep rolling out there. But like I I think
you just I don't know if there's a record you're
going for. It's a very storied career, Like it's a
little different than like probably what Liam Hendrick just belonged
to it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'll and I'll you know, we don't understand
this either because we haven't been in it since we
were you know five, Right, It's what it's the thing
that you have done since you were a kid, is
played baseball. So I'm sure it's hard to give up
not only the career and the money and the fame
that comes along with it, but just your everyday routine,
what you do, uh with your teammates and all that stuff,
Like you are your life is completely changing. Uh So
I understand the trepidation for some of these guys to
leave that have been in the league for sixteen seventeen years.
Remember Billy Wagner was Billy Wagner was crying when he retired.
He did not want to retire. He was just hurt.
So I get it. But dude, like your career has
been so good, I feel like the last couple of
seasons you're kind of sullying it. He's still going to
be a Hall of Famer. It just looks terrible.
Speaker 2: But I guess I guess my main point to looking
at that was like, he didn't stain. You're not going
to stain.
Speaker 3: Your Yeah he's not. He's not.
Speaker 2: No matter what he does here, you can get blown up.
I don't think you're getting over three era, But yeah.
Speaker 3: I've a hit today.
Speaker 2: My obsession this year has just been like the current
players of like are they all Hall of It? Because
I just don't pay attention to a lot of that
stuff because I kind of don't care sometimes about about
some of it.
Speaker 3: Well, it's also the you know, the Baseball Hall of
Fame is a bunch of hard ohs saying no one
can go in on first ballot and blah blah.
Speaker 2: Blah, oh yeah, ECHI road not being unanimous and bonds
because of whatever, Like those two things. I just it's
like I just don't take it that serious.
Speaker 3: I don't think I used to really care about the Hall.
I do not care. I could care less.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't take it. That's I'm just curious when
players like the Kimberl's and the Goldschmiths, I look and
I'm like, are these players currently trajectory type of Hall
of Famers that are still going on?
Speaker 3: Uh?
Speaker 2: Goldie, you sure played like one two homers off of
Schooble and VP and VP. Did you see car designated? No? Well, yeah,
well dude, they designated Carlos Santana for assignment, so he's gone.
And they didn't want to pay two more million dollars
for Goldie. And look at the level of Santana. The
biggest waste of two Now it's too million dollars, but
the biggest waste of money they could have had Goldie.
Speaker 3: Hazen said they never even talked to Goldie, though.
Speaker 2: I think Goldie literally said he talked to the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 3: Well, Hazen said today, they never even talked to him.
Speaker 2: So I think that's a load of garbage. Well, but
you know what, even more embarrassing for yourselves. Yeah, even
more embarrassing for yourself. That's worse than saying you talk
to him and it didn't work out.
Speaker 3: Is that? Yeah, if you knew you were going into
this season with No Planet first and you didn't go
get Goldie. I mean, really, if Carlos Santana was the
babysitter for Kateel Marte number one, he was never needed. Obviously,
Kattel has been doing fine outside of this boob nightingale
bs that that happened, which everyone in the organization and
his manager said is not true. But he wasn't needed
at all, So it is ridiculous that they didn't even
talk to Goldie. If that is I think that you're right.
I think that is worse.
Speaker 2: It's embarrassing. I think it's embarrassing. And the year that
Goldie is putting up right now looks insane. Two ninety seven,
fourteen homers, A three fifty five OBP. I just like,
I just think this is gonna sustain. Like, I don't
see why this is going to fall apart. He's weirdly
not hitting righties this year, and he's hitting four hundred
against lefties, which I just think those are going to
balance themselves out. You know, He's gonna start hitting righties
a little bit if the lefties come down. He's barreling.
Is the best barrel rate he's had since twenty eighteen.
He's getting the ball in the air, he's still hitting
it hard, he's not striking out a ton more, he's
pulling the ball more than he's ever done in his career,
and he's in a super hitter friendly environment and Carless
Dan not coming back anytime soon. Goldie has just been
legit and he keeps rolling with it. I love to
see it because I'm a you and I we had
to do emergency podcast because we were so upset that the
Diamondbacks traded Paul Goldschmith. We love him, but it just
it's extra pissy when you look at the bar embarrassing
failure at first base that Diamondbacks had.
Speaker 3: Yeah, what do you say, is the worst first base
in the history of baseball?
Speaker 2: Like ops? Like Ope, it was like the worst OAP.
Maybe it's changed, but it was like the worst OPS
combined at first base since like nineteen twenty. That's what
it was like. It's it's ridiculous, embarrassing, and goldiekids, I mean,
I think I guess I'd have to look at it.
I think I just adjusted some ranks. But Goldie easy,
I know, like the second Yeah, That's what I'm trying
to say, is like is he top ten? Is he
top twelve? Is it? It's easy fifteen? But you got
to consider I guess pinning your league is like CAGs
qualify at first. That makes a little bit weird. But
I don't know, dude, Like Goldie might be better than
Devors at this point, and that's weird to say for.
Speaker 3: The rest I mean it, it's just he's gonna have
to maintain not this level, but he's gonna have to
maintain being great for over a month and also, you know,
stave off some of these guys coming back off the eel.
That was my reasoning when I picked Christian Walker over
him last week, obviously after the week that he's had.
It's just insane. Two homers off the best pitcher in
the game is crazy. So a lot of fun watching
Goldie right now. One of my favorite parts of twenty
twenty six.
Speaker 2: Any thoughts on no, Like, do you like watching jazz
rock another defmer diamondback?
Speaker 3: Look, I'll I'll rant about Rafael Devers being a terrible
teammate and all that stuff. Uh, and not wanting to
be pintrun for and all that, I do not care.
But because the funniest thing was booney. The next day
when Joshchislm hit like h he drove in six or
whatever he did and hit a bomb, he was like, yeah,
he can have all the lollipops he wants. We don't care.
Speaker 2: Well, so he coaxed it up as like a safety thing,
and it's just like like, let's pick our.
Speaker 3: Fight, Like I do. We have bubble gum out there,
don't guys have mouthfuls of tobacco. What do we care
about it?
Speaker 2: They're all zend up and stuff like, I'm just I
can't with it. I just put a sarcastic tweet out, shocker.
I don't know if you saw this MLB put out.
What I think is I it's.
Speaker 3: The things you're allowed to have in your mouth while
you play.
Speaker 2: No, it's the first bit of like, don't propaganda this.
To me, it was the biggest issue baseball fans want solved,
the strengthen the game. And then they made a list
and it was like free agency, qualifying offers, increasing minimum salary,
And I wrote up one that was very directly about
the MLB blackouts and then I deleted it and I
was like, you know what, You're right. Everyone that'll listen
to I totally talk about the number one issue is
qualifying offers or ruining baseball. And I also can't get
over how we don't have the Cornerstone player advantage program,
which they put at the bottom of this, and I'm like,
please keep blacking out every game possible. The propaganda stuff
beyond that, it goes to my bigger issue. They say
these are all the issues of fans. Now, these are
the issues with owners that are not getting the proper
amount of profit that they want. You know what the
biggest issues the fans are is accessibility and also the
game being fun. Like I mean, maybe not everybody cares
about this, but you know what, let guys batflip more.
Let me have cool crazy cleats, Let's have some pimped
out bats, Let's have some cool gloves. They want to
have an f and lollipop, like I don't care, Like,
make the game fun. Separate yourself from the other sports
a little bit more by being, oh, you know what,
Baseball's the fun game. Football is the one that everyone consumes.
Basketball is the one that you don't care about the
regular season until the playoffs. Let baseball be the super
fun one where guys are celebrating and guys are they
have unique looks on themselves with gloves and stuff like
make baseball better in that respect, I don't need to
be told about qualifying offer. That is not what me
as a fan, so I got for. I don't usually
get worked up any of that, but I saw that
and I was like, listen, the proposed elimination of deferred
compensation is something I don't care about. You millionaires and
billionaires can go can go sid it because I don't
want to hear anything about that. Actually talk about the
stuff that we care about, and that is that you
copyright strike anybody that plays two seconds of a baseball video,
that you black out every game game that you want
to make sure the game isn't fun.
Speaker 3: It's just like it's relaxed. Yeah, look, there are about
a million steps between a lollipop being on the field
and the Savannah bananas, you know what I mean, Like,
we're not going to start counting.
Speaker 2: We don't need to burn our bats.
Speaker 3: Or yeah, back flips when when we're on routine fly balls,
it's still the major leagues. Right, Yeah, so I understand
respect the game and all that stuff, but also the
game is fun. That's why kids play it, right, that's
what they call it kids game is because it's supposed
to be fun. Bat flips are fun, that stuff is fun,
dancing and all that stuff.
Speaker 2: I don't know, you want to know it was fun.
Speaker 3: I'm sure that Savannah bananas are fine for you know,
you go and you watch and it's a fun environment
and all that, but I don't know that I would
want to watch that every day. In a real dude petition.
Speaker 2: I saw I don't know who it was with some
radio person. It might have been Craig Carton or somebody.
It was somebody very like not in touch with this.
And their take was if Baseball black has a black out,
you know, and it's like suspended or whatever. He's like,
the Savannah bananas are going to become huge. No, they're
not dead. No, people are not any more huge than
they already. It's not either going to be what they are.
It's it's it's you know what's fun though. Did you
see Kendall George got hurt when he jumped over the
dog like a month ago?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, he was back yesterday.
Speaker 2: They were playing Diamondbacks, and you know what the dougout
was doing. They were barking. They were barking the whole
time is up. That's hilarious and that's fun. That's the
type of stuff I need. I guess I don't have
that type of respect for the game. I just I
just think in this day and age like it be
a separator. Let's get more people playing baseball. Let's be
let's get more people watching so we don't have to
have these labor arguments. Let's make the game fun and
accessible as possible, not trying to shove this down our
throats about your minimum salaries and your this and that
and the profit margins of baseball. Like I I care
less more than I've ever cared about that type of
stuff because it is the truest billionaires fighting with millionaires
while we're you know, sitting here struggling to I.
Speaker 3: Can't watch the Rangers game because it didn't drive to
Dallas to get do.
Speaker 2: I want to be able to get to work this
week with the gas, I gotta pay or pay paramount
plus so I can watch the two games that they're
gonna put on this service and then I also make
sure I have to have the package. But you know what,
I don't also have the package. I got to make
sure I buy the team package for ninety nine dollars
for the hole so I can watch. And it's just
like get the get out of here, all right, soapbox stuff. Sorry,
just like all that stuff was going on all right?
Oh in funner news, did you see the turk scobl
hit himself in the nuts when he was pitching and
then like get over it? And they asked him after
the game, could I've never seen a player you see
them like kind of adjust themselves. He just turned around
and he was like alright, alright, and then he said
what you thought happened is what happened. He hit himself
while pitching in the balls, and then it took him
a little bit to catch his breath. Yeah. I mean,
if you've ever been hitting the nuts, it sucked.
Speaker 3: To literally take your breath away. You remember, we're playing
softball and I was crouched down and my buddy went
after a low one and you were this is what
I remember is our buddy Joe was standing on third
and he said he could see the ball stick in
my groin and spin before I even got to it.
Uh so yeah, yeah, it sucks, it'll take the wind
right out of you. But I got hit.
Speaker 2: I've never talked to myself and that was like that
was oh yeah, it was. It was bad.
Speaker 3: It was really How do you have kids? Is my question?
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then they don't have issues either. It's amazing.
But Terrek'scooball Yeah, exactly, Derek Scuball in the in the nuts. Uh,
no one is hotter in baseball than Jack Cagle owns
six homers in six games, Absolutely ridiculous. I think that
kind of killed today though, as they almost got no hit.
Up to fourteen homers two sixty eight average. It's all
coming together. It's all happening, almost famous for sure. Who
would you rather rest of season? Jack kagleone or Vladimir
Guerrero Junior?
Speaker 3: Oh? Ummm is vlat Vlad is doing everything? But Homer
still right.
Speaker 2: It's kind of a tati tatish routine a little bit.
Speaker 3: Yeah, let's see, he's still hitting two seventy seven.
Speaker 2: That is like ninero point nine point zero nine more
than Kagliana is hitting.
Speaker 3: M hm, how many runs? How many runs does Caags have?
You have his numbers in front of you.
Speaker 2: I can do that. Thirty nine. I think it's five
four Yeah, RBI thirty two, thirty for CAGs six tole
bases three and four homers, fourteen homers? How many doubles? Uh,
twelve twelve also for CAGs.
Speaker 3: Uh give me CAGs right now. God, I probably won't
believe that in a month, but I'll say right now,
is I mean no homers? Where is the power gone?
And is this going to be all year? Is this
real life? I'm David after Dennis? Is is this real life?
Is this going to keep happening? He's gonna hit? Like so,
Vlad has four, and what do you think he's projected
to hit for the rest of the year To add
on to this.
Speaker 2: Four probably like six, it's.
Speaker 3: More than it's like thirteen, but that gives him this
seventeen or thirteen fourteen more like Steamer right now has
that's the most.
Speaker 2: So he's gonna hit twenty oopsie.
Speaker 3: At fifteen is the most he's projected to hit for
the rest of the year. And so add on that four,
that's nineteen. He doesn't get to twenty in any projection.
Speaker 2: That's not their total. That that's the addition.
Speaker 3: No, it's eighty games left, so he'd play one hundred
and fifty six games you just add so, so that
would be nineteen homers though, and that's Tags has seventeen
right now.
Speaker 2: No, he's fourteen fourteen right now.
Speaker 3: I mean, that's what they predict him for the rest
of the season. What Caags already has. So I don't
know what is uh are you looking at fangrafts? Do
you know? Okay, so let me let me go to CAGs.
Speaker 2: I think the biggest thing is like, if you believe
CAGs can maintain a two sixty ish average, He's got
some bad swinging with stuff, but his XBA is higher
at two eighty four. If you believe that continues, it's
hard to say he's not. I mean, the worst case
the thing that people are crying about with CAGs was
kind of like what Vlad is. They're like, well, he's
in foreverage, but he's not hitting any homers and no RBIs,
Well guess what that's Vladimir Gerer Junr. The upside is there.
We just know vlad can be a three hundred plus
hitter and maybe the ball starts flying, but it hasn't been.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Tags is also young. Like, the answer
is probably they're going to be fairly the same through
us way through because I'm looking at the rest of
tags projections is also it's pretty much the same. You know,
it's fourteen homers and all that, so between four teen
and twelve so or fourteen and eleven so right around
the same. But he's already got fourteen so yeah. I mean,
like I said, at the end of the day, they're
probably Spider Man being pointing at each other when we
get to the finish line from this point forward. But
the numbers are way better for Tags right now. So
let's go with caags.
Speaker 2: Interesting, wouldn't be curious where you guys are at? And
then Tatis he his third homer of the season.
Speaker 3: Let's go three bombs, tatis woo.
Speaker 2: How gonna over under? Does it get to ten? Does
it get to double Digi's.
Speaker 3: I want to chicken this. We haven't chicken in a while. Yeah,
so let's chicken that.
Speaker 2: I can get my number.
Speaker 3: Okay, and I'll tell you all right, I got my number.
His projection is anywhere between eleven on Zips and fifteen
on Oopsie as well for the rest of the year.
More to add on to his three. So, so do.
Speaker 2: You want to to lead off or you want to
go ahead and lead off? All right, he's at three,
I'm gonna say six.
Speaker 3: I'll go to ten.
Speaker 2: Eleven.
Speaker 3: You thought about that for a long time. Uh, I'll
say ten with thirteen fourteen, God, uh, fifteen, I'm.
Speaker 2: Gonna sell it.
Speaker 3: I'm just selling it. Fifteen twelve more homers for the
rest of the year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh yeah, he's got three. He can't get the
fall in the air like I think he can have
a surge. I just don't know if that's sir. I mean,
to be fair, he's the type of guy that could
hit ten homers in a season for sure.
Speaker 3: I just team mean, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm sorry, in a month. I just don't know
if that's gonna happen to that degree. So it might
be selling a little bit short. Like thirteen fourteen that
seemed like the range, But I'm gonna sell that at fifteen.
I just don't think he can get there.
Speaker 3: Yikes, wow, okay, you I mean he's not on pace
for fifteen, so I completely understand.
Speaker 2: Oh man, oh my n uh. News around the baseball
is Bobby Witt has not played in five straight games now,
but said he is available off the bench yesterday, so
that's uh.
Speaker 3: Now today they're saying that he's expected to be.
Speaker 2: Back Friday, but he wasn't in the game today.
Speaker 3: Uh you know what, I didn't even look. I just
tuned in when they said, uh, that was close to
a no hitter.
Speaker 2: Well, it's look here, I imagine.
Speaker 3: But he must not have played today since they said
he he said he's likely back tomorrow.
Speaker 2: He did not. Yeah, yeah, he did not play, So
there's nothing there. Uh so hopefully, but that's good news.
He's gonna be back. Also back it's Francisco Lindor. He
was activated. Uh but once Sota then left and didn't
play in the double and I believe Wansda went to
the iel. Actually, and I said this on leading off
a really funny troll account, was like the relationship has
gotten so bad they refuse to stay on the IL
together and they're switching off IL stints and it's really bad.
But Lindor was reactivating. Also, Ellie de la Cruz is back,
so that's a big positive. Kyle Tucker hasn't played since Monday,
not a big positive. Any thoughts Lindor Cruz Tucker or
any of that.
Speaker 3: I mean, I would like to see Lindor get back
real quick and normal. Kyle Tucker I think needs to
go on the IL. I think this. I think we
kind of talked about that in the last episode, where
it looks like this has been an injury that's probably
been bothering him for a big chunk of the year.
Also a lot of pressure when you're making that much
money and you sign a big deal and everybody hates
you because of it. So could be a little bit
of that in there. But and then Ellie, Ellie seems
like he might be a freaking nature dude to come
back from a hamstring strain that fast, and then for
all of his markers to be moved up, like his
MRI and all that stuff. That was just really nice
to see about Ellie.
Speaker 2: Not nice to see Roman Anthony has not made any
substantive progress. That is the quote during the Red Sox
road trip he is now we were doing a kind
of a guessing game. Can you guess? Do you know
when last time.
Speaker 3: He played Roman Anthony? Yeah, wasn't it like right at
the beginning of.
Speaker 2: April May fourth? Maye Okay, with you, he has not
played in almost two months and there is no progress
being happened. You got to write it at this point,
he gotta be done, and.
Speaker 3: Right off that, I mean, I think like if he's
not back after the All Star break, I think at
that point, then you're like, well, he's just done. I
mean it was not good before he went on the
IL anyway, He's hitting two twenty nine. I only had
one homer and two solen bases in thirty games. Like,
none of the numbers look good anyway, but you would
like after the You've missed three months after the All
Star Game, right all of May, June, half of July,
six weeks at least eight weeks at least, so you
need to be I think he's back after the All
Star break or he's probably not back.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm kind of in the same. I also don't
know if I care. I don't know if I care
to hold around anymore. Like if you said no substantive progress,
like he's still got to start a hitting program, then
he's going to start a rehab program. I assume maybe
I'm over playing.
Speaker 3: Try to ramp those up a couple times and been
shut down each time.
Speaker 2: I have to assume that is close to a month
process of ramping up some live sessions, getting games. Maybe
it's a little bit less, but if you're almost in July,
that's I mean, you might be looking to September. I
just don't I don't have any good feelings about it.
Speaker 3: And it's just a lost year for the Red Sox too.
Speaker 2: Exactly no reason. I mean, I think you want, like
there's no reason to push him. I don't think they
have to shut it down for the season. They just
like let it go as light as possible.
Speaker 3: And then, uh, and what what is it to like
because the MRI is showing no damage, so what is it?
Is it still something going on with his finger?
Speaker 2: I guess I have no idea.
Speaker 3: Really weird because like we saw Trade, didn't Trade Turner
play with a broken finger and he just kept the
finger off of the bat for like two months. It's
kind of crazy.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is crazy. Also, Cole Reagan's likely done for
the year. He's gonna undergo surgery for an elbow impingement.
I think they said, like, you know, there's a possibility
he could come back. Just write it off. I'm at
that point, like you hate to write off super super
talented players, but I don't have anything left to hold
on to Anthony or Reagan's at this point. So if
you're in any type of pinch, I just.
Speaker 3: What what about like moving forward? Because I know, like
Roman Anthony, it's a finger injury. So wrist injury, you
come back next year, you look good and spring you're fine? Right, Yeah, sure,
Cole Reagan's now has to be injury prone label correct,
Like yeah, I think so.
Speaker 2: We were kind of we did a little bit of
this on leading off of like where does he go?
I kind of think he's in the like later twenties,
he's going to be in. I just don't think he
can go that much further down, especially if like it
takes a year to recover. You get some positive words,
you know, he's good, looks like he'd be good for
spring training and all that. Like I think people will
just kind of let it go and then it's like
he's closer like the Michael King range, you know, or
I don't know where, Like I know obviously like Parker
Mesic and Jurrassemus and are having really great seasons, but
like where will they end up being? They might be
pushed back a little bit like as the season goes on,
like I think he'll be in that range instead of
being this guy who's like a top ten or top fifteen.
Speaker 3: Or yeah, that's done. Yeah, that's the way done.
Speaker 2: Michael Garcia placed on the IEL with a muscle strain
in his hands at Geloff, also stepped on by Matt Chapman,
which is pretty both on the IEL. Some interesting performances
and some other just things that are floating out there.
Hunter Green four innings, three strikeouts, and a triple A
start topped out at ninety five. He went over sixty
four pitches, folks. That's probably one more triple A start
where they push him to seventy or so. Maybe they
do two because of the time missed, but I think
they can go to seventy to seventy five and then
I think he's in the majors and then you can.
Speaker 3: Put ninety nine and a halfn through sixty four pitches.
I'm putting him in for his next start.
Speaker 2: I am too, but I just assuming that they might
do one more. Connor Griffin rehabs start two for two,
had a homer, three RBIs seven innings. That was on Wednesday.
I mean just cuts get them to the Major's.
Speaker 3: Dude, I'm not very old man about a lot of things,
but Mark Grace definitely has me on that, why are
we wasting our cuts?
Speaker 2: I don't disagree with it. Tay Oscar won for three
with a homer at Triple A Oklahoma. Corey Seger should
be activated soon. He took VP didn't hasn't cleared proto yet,
but I guess that's like a pseudo good sign. David Peterson.
There's a weird trade by the way, as Edward Cabrera
had a hamstring injury was carted off if they said
it's a like a mid hamstring strain, which is not good,
and Ben Brown is placed on the IL. The team
went and acquired David Peterson, and they traded a do
some prospect in Cole Matthews as well. I'm assuming David
Peterson's gonna get kind of thrown into the mix. They
did get Matthew Boyd back and Javier Asad has actually
been sneaky good one nine ERA over the last month,
So those are I would rather go with a SOD
than David Peterson, I think at this point absolutely yeah.
Speaker 3: David Peterson has been two up and down, but I
mean gets what he wants. He gets a starting spot here,
so that's nice.
Speaker 2: Yees Ury Perez was activated four and two thirds, one strikeout,
no walks against Texas. Kind of a weird start. We'll
have to monitor what that ends up looking like long term.
Shane Bieber, we had that conversation and the start happened.
He gave up four and runs and three and two thirds,
give up nine hits.
Speaker 3: I think he was give up three homers in a row.
It's only the eighth time the Ashes have ever done
it in franchise history. So I was watching that game,
I'm like, damn, Bieber's cruising. Maybe we were wrong about
starting him on this first start here. And then bang
bang bang in the third inning, all three homers in
a row.
Speaker 2: So Mitch Bratt was called up by the Diamondbacks. He
went three innings, three strikeouts, a couple walks in there.
Really low pitch count is what they kind of threw
at him. He'd also come off of the injury. I
think he's going to be a long term option. Stuff
is interesting. It's not overpowering stuff. It's kind of weak
contact thing. It reminds me of like I said this
is Merril Kelly Kelly type of picture. I think he's
going to be an option for a decent amount of
the year. Diamondbacks are kind of rough in general deeper leagues.
He's probably someone to take a look at. But he's
gonna have to build up, obviously the pitch count where
they're trusting it. And I think it's gonna be tough
for him to get to the fifth inning in the
next one. But if you want, yeah, you can do that.
Speaker 3: They said, or fifteen fifty pitches in this game was
kind of his limit. I think he threw fifty four
he ended up with, so it's probably gonna climb up
to sixty five. But just with all these pitchers getting
hurt for the d Backs and being not good for
the d Backs, that you got to find somebody somewhere.
So I think you're right. I think they're gonna They're
gonna work him longer and longer, and he'll eventually have
a spot in that rotation.
Speaker 2: I think the Mets are moving Koda sang It to
the bullpen after he got blasted. Jiggled a little bit
against the Cubs three and two thirds seven and in runs,
and do you.
Speaker 3: See they asked him, like, what would you do if
they asked you to take a you know, a minor
league assignment, and he would say, I would remind them
that I signed him.
Speaker 2: As I was saying that through an interpreter, Yeah, I
think so.
Speaker 3: I mean, I just saw the quote, so I didn't
see that's actual interview.
Speaker 2: That's always interesting because like Murkami had minor league options.
I believe too when he signed, Like, you can do
those things. But I mean seinga you know, I'm along
on this team anymore, Like I think they need to
be done with him, but they're just there're you know,
a lot of injuries and I don't.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, what are the Mets playing for the
saddest thing ever was seeing the dans By Swanson Homer
and then then panting to the all of those Norwegians
doing a line Dance's hilarious. Actually, it was pretty funny
if you're not a Mets fan.
Speaker 2: Pretty freaking funny. And then a couple activations I mentioned
Matthew Boyd is activated today. Also Randy rose Arena is back.
So that's kind of your world around baseball here. So
that is going to set the news. Let's take a break.
When we come back, we're going to talk about pictures
who're trending up and down, and we'll do it on
end this league right after this.
Speaker 3: What is this?
Speaker 2: It's in this league? What how can we be expected
to teach Scott Bogwin and' Chris Well to learn how
to read if they can't even fit inside the building?
Speaker 1: In this league has to be at least three times
bigger than this Chris.
Speaker 2: Starting pitcher trends. We've got some guys that are trending up.
Taking ERA is kind of a semi helpful marker, but
it's not in all cases is just era. And then
we've got some certain statistical markers that are kind of
trending in positive directions, and we can determine on some
of these guys as well. On the ups, are all
of these you know, positive trends something that can correlate
long you know, like a long part of the season.
And then on the inverse, we've got some guys that
are trending down, some trends where we can decide how
worrisome are some of these. Sometimes I think there's one.
Sometimes there's a multitude of different things. So we'll be
talking about some of these pictures. You guys, let us know.
Bagman's starting in the trends up. One of the guys
that has been phenomenal this season. When we talk about
huge names, I think it's kind of tough to be like,
you know, but maybe it's a tier change. Drew Rasmussen
has been absolutely phenomenal this year. Started out with the
two six four ERA four to one three in May
and then has a one ERA in June. The biggest
up everything is like clearly you know better, Like there's
no doubt any better. Yes, yeah, he's given up less
homers per nine innings every single month.
Speaker 3: You know, lowest walk rate of any month this yeah,
this month as well.
Speaker 2: But the two things that really stand out here are
his strikeout his K per nine has gone up to
eleven K per nine it was seven last month and
nine the month before. And his home run a fly
ball ratio of five percent. There's another correlative stat that
I think sometimes is kind of the luck factor eighty
nine percent almost ninety percent left on base percentage. Before
that it was sitting around the seventies. So what I'm
getting at here is you've got two months of stuff
where the home run rates higher left on base percentage
is at least ten percent lower, if not more, are
those Is this new run sustainable? And then the caves
have really gone up, So it's just kind of a look.
He is obviously clearly trending up to what level? Are
you buying Drew rasp music. I think the case here
too is has he truly broken the plane of being like,
you know, a cool outside of the thirty sp Like,
do you think he belongs inside the top twenty fifteen conversation?
Not just his production from this year, but the sustainability?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I kind of feel like he does.
I'm apprehensive about putting new people up into that group
because Soriano was so good for like eight straight starts
and has sunk back. We'll talk about him in the
next group here, but I feel like ras Musen has
always kind of been on the cusp of being a
much better pitcher, and it seems like that is starting
to come to fruition now. You know, the left on
base percentage is way higher this month as well. Do
I know that he's going to keep this eleven K nine,
you know, for the rest of the season. No, obviously,
I don't. His career what's his career Kate per nine
eight point five, So it is okay, yeah, he did
have in twenty twenty four, he had a ten point
nine to nine K per nine, but he only started
four games.
Speaker 2: It's I don't really look at Kate per nine, but
I'm more of a cap percine.
Speaker 3: I'm just looking at that because that's improved so much
this you know, at this point, the home run to
fly ball ratio is the most important thing. Knocking that
down to five point three percent this month after being
twelve percent and up in April and May is outstanding.
So sustained, I want to say, sustained upper tiers, sustained
top twenty. I I don't know. I feel queasy about
putt him in there.
Speaker 2: I think in a better and So what I meant
when I said the like cap like Joe likes to
talk about Kate per nine, I don't, I think a
better representation. Even though they're the same, they're they're telling
a similar story. Thirty five percent K percentage in June,
that's more the thing to focus like, so eleven k
P nine it's a lot thirty five K percentage with
a three percent walk rate. That is a thirty two
point three percent K minus walk percentage, So not only
were the strikeouts greater, the walk rate went to the
lowest level, and on top of it, he had this
really high strand rate. So you know, like I look
at him, and I look at at a lot of
like what this this particular month is and how it's
kind of like wrung up, and I think this is
like an ever evolving, ever approving, improving picture that like, yeah,
I kind of buy some long term sustainability. Twenty seven
percent with a sub five percent walk rate and Eira's
great low contact and then you're having some things like
mentioned here that are working in favor the home runs
coming down. I agree with you. I think that's absolutely huge.
That works well with low walk rates and left on
base percentage is probably it's going to be higher when
you're just more efficient. Ninety percent is a little bit
over inflated, but that doesn't mean anything's going to fall apart.
So really positive trends in his direction. A much lower
named pitcher, but it's hard to argue some of the
big changes we've had is Foster Griffin two six seven
ERA to start the year four eight six last month
one four eight this month in June, so again you
kind of there's kind of a trend. Actually, if you
stare at a majority of these pictures, it's like that
middle month there's a bump, and seeing them come back
and bounce back is huge. Foster Griffin one four eight
in June, so that's great, best expected era two point
eight in April when he had a two six seven
RA was four to seven three expected. His caves have
kind of maintained, but his walk rate has become minuscule.
You have it as a point seven k per nine.
I'm gonna guess if Drew Rasmus was three point one
or whatever, this is going to be like a two
percent walk rate. Batting out bab Begins has been lower,
home run to fly balls lower than the month before.
He does have a dramatically increased one hundred percent left
on base percentage, but these are also paired to the
ground ball rate that's gone up. So I talked like
last week or so about Foster Griffin in that, like,
you know, the work that he's done in upon adding
all of these pitches is really crazy pitch mix. Even
though he might not be this big strikeout guy, things
are really going in a in a positive direction. Do
you think based off of what you're seeing, things will
continue going in a positive direction?
Speaker 3: Though?
Speaker 2: Is this truly trending up and up?
Speaker 3: I mean, he's been so good for so long. I
will say this that, like, looking at his Savant page
is fairly unimpressive. His XCRA is right at fifty percent.
His XBA is below fifty.
Speaker 2: Percent you're talking about Yeah, yeah, okay, Yeah, it's a
four it's a four point zero five expected era. So
it's a full right higher than in.
Speaker 3: A two forty three XBA, which isn't great, but it's
still uh not you know, it's it's slightly below average.
Chase rate is good, with rate is right around even
the walk rate is really good. He's keeping guys off base.
So I think like his sustainability will probably be tied
to that walk percentage, you know, just looking I think
he had another good start in there. Yeah, his what's
his era on that sheet? Because for June, because it's
one four eight.
Speaker 2: No, it is one four eight in June.
Speaker 3: He also was Okay, I thought he added another start yesterday, but.
Speaker 2: But he has three straight quality starts. He has had
every single start who walks this month. Yeah, and every
single start is he's only given up one earned run,
So four total runs this month, two total walks three
of the four games, or five or more strikeouts, and
he has gone six and three of the four starts.
I mean he is. I mean, you say it's unimpressive.
What was?
Speaker 3: He's not as impressive. I don't know if it's sustainable,
is the thing?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean he get up like he gave up
like a one nineteen hit, but his average ex vlosity
is low. He does give up a lot of barreled contact,
which is something to you know, something to pay attention to.
The expected batting average, the batting average against his pitches
from an expected standpoint. You don't see this often, but
he throws seven pitches. Every single pitch has a higher
expected batting average than what he's doing. So you know,
he's obviously like performing at a higher level than where
it should be.
Speaker 3: But I mean, does that mean the fifth pitcher before
the season started, and he's eighteenth starting pitcher.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think he's eighteenth, but I think he's.
I mean, let me ask you a couple who'd you
rathers Would you rather Emmitt Shean or Foster Griffin. I
think Foster right now, I think I'd rather go Foster.
Would you rather Davis Martin or him?
Speaker 3: That's a tough one because we'll mention him on the
trending down. It's not as bad as we think, but
it's still not good. Man, Let me look at it,
let me look at Davis Martin. No, I mean I
do that one because I think I still want to
say Davis Martin, but I and honestly, I think it's
one of those things that we kind of talked about
at the first basement. They'll probably look the same by
the time we get to the end of the season. Yeah,
it's Foster Griffin because it's a fairly similar page for
Davis Martin.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think that the trending upside of this,
which is interesting, is like when you can take a
look at a three month stand and two of those
three months have been solid and you've bounced back. I'm
into that. I'm totally into that. I'm into like having
adversity and bouncing back off of adversity. And I mean,
this is the best month by far. And this is
not just like, oh, it's like a one off. It's like, well, no,
he was great. The first month he was okay, not great,
but not horrible, not caudable necessarily in the second month,
and then this month it's been elite. And he pairs
that with a serviceable strikeout percentage. You know, even if
it's nine k per nine, which it essentially has been,
but a tiny baby walk rate, you know, he'sah.
Speaker 3: And it's similar to what his his Japanese League numbers were,
you know, five point nine, four point nine, five point nine.
It was fifteen point six and twenty twenty two his
last time in the majors before this year. So as
you mentioned, like just going over there and readjusting, you know,
I think has really helped.
Speaker 2: Him jumping through this. You had Jacob de Gram and
Logan Gilbert Logan Gilbert want to maybe stop at its
interesting because he has slowly been improving every single month.
He had a four ERA to start then in May
it was three two six. This month it's two point nine.
We've seen improvements on his expected era FIP expected PHIP.
His strikeouts have gone back over eleven, which is which
is solid. The thing that's weird that's attached to him, though,
is that he's got these piggyback starts that are going
to come in, so like he has gotten better, so
he's probably gonna be a tiny bit more efficient. But
this is also just a really good test case. Like
if I just saw this and I didn't have the
piggyback situation, I would be like, yeah, this is another
reason to feel comfortable that like he could get back
to maybe being a top ten guy. But the piggybacks,
I think.
Speaker 3: Are weird good for his post All Star breaks? Should
they stop doing this piggyback thing posts All Star Break?
But I don't know if they're going to.
Speaker 2: So how about logan web though this one is like,
this one's goofy because it's just like a tale of
two months too.
Speaker 3: Well, they had the injury. Yeah, I think this is
just showing it's pretty safe to say his April numbers
were from the injury.
Speaker 2: And look at this April four to three era may
or I'm sorry, June zero point eight seven expected era
is over two and a half run difference. His strikeouts
are actually down, by the way. That actually makes me
a little bit wonky on him.
Speaker 3: Because walks away down to point six he.
Speaker 2: Was walking three per nine. I don't know if the
percentage is on that but walking three per I guess
that would be like, oh, would that be per? I
don't know what ever?
Speaker 3: Did come on?
Speaker 2: No calculator? Yeah, well, it just it throws me off
whenever I see k per nine now because I'm like,
what is the percentage of that? I want to say
that would be like a twelve percent?
Speaker 3: Is that sound I'm finding it? Let me look.
Speaker 2: Well, now I'm going to look too. It's it. Well
it's five. It's five point nine on the year. So
what was June? I have to know now I cannot
move on without it. I'm looking to where is it?
Speaker 3: Is it not on here?
Speaker 2: No? I got it?
Speaker 1: It was.
Speaker 2: Well seven point five percent one point eight? Well, no,
that's this month. But the I meant like, what's the
garbage one? Look like the garbage three walks per nine?
Seven point five doesn't seem right to me, But it's
it said it was eight in April May, which was
like one start and then seven point five. I felt
like that would have been a little bit higher. But
beside all of those student.
Speaker 3: I mean, he's eight innings in May, so don't even
count that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I thought the strikeout rate being up was
a really important key, and it's actually worse than it
was last time. So twenty one to twenty two percent
with the really low walk rate is still great and stuff.
But I don't feel like otherworldly. But all that matters
is it's it's trended in like a very good direction.
That's that's what you care about. Three more pitchers that
I think are very interesting read debtmers. I think red debtmers.
This is just more of a confirmation of I think
you've been on this train with me. I've been buying
trying to buy him for the last month four two
eighty ra in April four to nine to eight in
May two point zero eight this month, ridiculous expected era
is actually this is actually the crazy thing to check
this out. As he's improved, his expected era every month
has been three point zero one or lower, So even
when he had those fours, the expectation was much better.
His strikeouts are actually worse this month. They were twelve
last k per nine it's seven and a half. But
his walk rade has gone down. He's giving up absolutely
no homers. Babbitt is super low against and homer in
the fly ball was already minusculed three point seven.
Speaker 3: Percent only being seven and a half percent, so uh yeah,
very good year for redept merce and it, you know,
like you mentioned four, two eight, four, nine, eight down
to two to eight without a lot of difference and
expected era just means that he's finally getting the numbers
that he deserves here.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, and this is why I want to buy
like this trend. Another one is Robbie Ray. Why Robbie
Ray is interesting is the trademarket, I think, but you
could also maybe argue I haven't looked at this. I'm
gonna do it while we're talking about it to see
what the home splits might look like, because it's a
very friendly environment. But two seven era in April blown
up in May at six four back down to one eight.
That's his era. Expected era is quite a bit higher
at three and a half this month, though, so it's
actually his eras have his expected The rays have trended
worse every single month, like dramatically than his expected so
that's something to watch. But he's not giving up homers.
His walk rate has gone down a little bit, he's
leaven more guys on base and obviously right about home
and away is it. Does he have dramatic home, it's bad.
Speaker 3: Two nine three at home, four five four on the road.
UH fifteen earned runs at home over forty six innings,
twenty one over forty one and two thirds on the road.
Average against is the biggest crazy one one eighty six
at home, two fifty six on the road, and the
slugging three zero four at home four ninety four on
the road with a whoba of two seventy three verse
three fifty one. Big differences between home and road.
Speaker 2: So it could be very important for where he's traded.
If you're going to be a bit buy in on
Robbie Ray. Maybe it's even more of a fade.
Speaker 3: Maybe it's a it's just like a couple. Let me
just look at his game, because it he had so
at the d Backs, he gave up nine. Other than
that start, though he gave up five at home against
the Nationals, he hasn't given up one of the game
with four every other game UH three earned runs or lower,
and his last two he's given up zero. Three of
his last four he's given up zero. But he does
have that five turn run game against Washington wedged in there,
but Washington scored more runs than anybody so.
Speaker 2: I mean than you decide, you guys decide if that's
a trend up that you buy into.
Speaker 3: I'm buying this trend because honestly, it's really the one
terrible start at Arizona. You take that those four innings away,
that's uh yeah, nine earnings so off of his road
total song. Yeah, I'm actually fine with Robby Ray.
Speaker 2: This is the one I think is pretty interesting. It's
Tanner Biby. Tanner Biby. On the year has now got
like a relatively respectable like three seven e ra. He's
expected is about almost a full run higher, though walk's
been a little bit higher. Bail Ray against has been higher,
but he has been improving. Four point zero eight in April,
five point zero eight in May got worse worse, and
then this month two point two one. But the expected
is over four still, so there might be a little
mirage happening. His strikeouts got better than month over month.
His walks got a little bit worse, though, but the
babbit was super low, so there might have been a
little bit too much luck, a little too much luck
going in his favor that he would have been running
a three fourteen and two fifty. Babbitt against one to
eight this past month. So maybe the thing that makes
it so interesting is he's becoming serviceable, but he's kind
of low strikeouts. Maybe this month is more of a
mirage and maybe tannor Biby, even though the trends up,
I would kind of look at this as maybe a cell.
To be honest with.
Speaker 3: You, Yeah, I'll say this. It's again two big blow ups.
I mean, not a lot of games where he's given
up more than three orned runs. It's give up four
at the Royals over only four innings, so that's not great.
But he gave up eight on April twelfth at Atlanta,
and then he gave up seven on May twenty fifth
against Washington. Again, Washington is killing everybody. But since that
Washington start at the end of May, he has not
given up more than three ernies in any single game
over the next five start. So it's been pretty good
for Tanner Bibe recently. So I don't know, I feel
I'm feeling a little more positive than I thought I
would on tenor bybe.
Speaker 2: On the trend downs, there's a lot. We are not
going to talk about all of them because there's way
too many. But let's let's run through some Brian Wu.
We thought things were getting better. He had a three
eight to sixty RA in April three zero three in
May that was good five eight nine. This past month,
the expected DRA was four and a half. His strikeouts
went down, not dramatically, and his walks went down. To
be honest with you, he might have got babbit to
death a little bit, but home runs were a huge
issue fourteen point three. So here's the deal. You could
look at this and actually say there's a case with
his fastball, Vila was going up his ground balls, maintaining
an unsustainable fifty six percent left on base rate that
the homers were up, and the babbitt was maybe got
babbit to death because it's almost a ten k p
nine one walk per nine. Guy that got hit up
a little too hard. He's I think too talented. Even
though he is trending down, that might this might be
something where I want to try to play the bye,
but he is coming off of a really bad start.
I just think, to me, this looks like he's getting
I mean, and this is a trend with almost every
guy who's on the trend downs. They're getting babbit to death.
And when it doesn't translate to what they're normally putting up.
I kind of think he can get back through with this.
What's say you about Brian Wudo on this bad trend.
Speaker 3: I don't know, it's been not great, you know, he
but he's had great mixes in there against Baltimore seven innings,
three hits, no runs, one walk, nine strikeouts. Next start
five at Pittsburgh, four strikeouts. Couldn't make it through four
five innings and seven earned at Baltimore. How do you
get crushed by Baltimore and then blank Baltimore five The
game before that at Detroit. Before that, he had a
nice run from May sixth to the end of May
was actually pretty good. He started out real bad. So
this has like peaked and valied for Brian Wu. I
want to ask you this, Brian Wu or Drew Rasmussen
for the rest of the season.
Speaker 2: Hmm. I I think I'm gonna say Rasmussen. I'm definitely
saying like I wanted, I want to have a buy
into Wu. But with the piggybacks and stuff, and I mean,
I think he's gonna bounce back. I just don't know
if it's gonna look like that like elite elite level.
I mean he is. He has a three almost three
percent decrease in his strikeout and I was keeping him up.
So I'm gonna say Rasmussen.
Speaker 3: I also say, like my overall arching view on Brian
Wu is to buy because like you're never gonna have
a better time. I feel like to buy than right
now on Brian Wu. So my over arching thought is
by But I don't think I'm giving up like a
really overperformer like Drew Rasmus were. So buy him on
the cheap, but make sure it is pretty cheap.
Speaker 2: Who uh, We're just enough to do with him? Well,
now let me do this. Weber Wu Web okay and
Weber Rasmussen Web web over both. Okay. I'm ras Musen
over Web, but I'm web over Wu.
Speaker 3: Okay. Yeah, I think I think Web versus Rasmusen is closer.
Speaker 2: But okay, what's just track record for me too? Trending down,
This is the guy I picked on three weeks ago
Conley early two week four ERA in April three oh
seven in May, so things were good, then they fell
apart five six six ERA. Though this is very interesting.
The months that he was good, he hadn't expected Era
of two and a half runs and then around one
and a half more this month expected to be raise
the lowest of any month, and it's two runs lower
than where he was at at three five one, So
he's playing this weird game. His strikeouts are actually up
this month. His walks are really bad. He's got a
bad home run issue, but and I guess he's left
on base percentages down, but it's a very serviceable number.
He's getting a few more ground balls. I mean, homers
are just clearly the biggest issue. I've had some other
kind of overall issues, but this is super weird where
you see when he's good, he's expected to be worse,
and then when he's really bad, they're like, no, no,
it's not that bad. That's what the expected numbers are
telling in a very dramatic fashion. So, as I've said
in my take on him, he's fine. I wanted to
trade off because I thought there was this peak value
thing where everyone's like, oh my god, he's the next
biggest thing. I wanted to trade on the peak. I
think he's still going to be a fine pitcher at
the back end if he didn't make the move or
anything like that. And I think that market is kind
of gone now, so I can get off of the like,
get out of the Conley early range. But even though
he's been trending down, the trend down doesn't really hold
up in the expected side.
Speaker 3: Yeah, where is he on homers per nine? I'm unqualified
pictures ten, So he's bottom ten in Homer's per nine.
Also bottom fifteen in Walks per nine. It's a dangerous combo, right,
Like you're walking guys and then letting guys hit bombs.
So I think I'm with you on kind of avoiding
Connie Conley early. You didn't talk yourself out of that
just now, did you.
Speaker 2: I was like, no, no, no, my whole thing, like
I said, it was just like I thought you were
trading him at a peak. I thought he was gonna
comeback down. I think the end of the year he's
just gonna like have a fine season. You know, it's
not gonna be like, oh my god, he's the next
biggest pitcher in baseball. He's got a three.
Speaker 3: And see, he hasn't been getting crushed. He hasn't like
it's but he just hasn't been going deep into games
because he's walking so many guys and then giving up
a bomb. So like, if you can clear up one
of those, walk fewer guys or give up less bombs,
you're gonna get way better fast. So there's meat on
the bone there, But I just don't know if it
comes through this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not just he's fine. He's just a fine picture.
He's training in the wrong direction. The trade market, I think,
is kind of done with same thing with Davis Martin
one nine two five vra those first two months seven
point two very inflated expected dra is in a really
bad way. He's walking a ton more, he's striking out
a ton less, he's giving up more homers. He is
getting babbit to death. I think he's the high of
all the pictures in the trending down. Nobody has a
higher babbit than him at three ninety four. But that's
not gonna work really well when you are also walking
a bunch of guys, you aren't striking out guys. Like
to me, this is a truer version of like this
is real trend downs, you know what I mean. Like
he's not getting ground balls, he's not leaving guys on
base because he can't get out, you know, Like he's
walking dude. He's just a erratic So I think he's
still like at the end of the day, probably a
fine pitcher. Probably same in the Conley early thing where
it's like, do you need to cut him? I mean
unless it continues like this, but you know he has
he's inflated. Is hera up into I know, I say inflated,
but into the threes? The expected is pushing into the
fours right now. I think he'll level out. But he's
just not this untouchable. It's like the Jose Soriano. I
think Jose Soriano is probably is he on this list anywhere?
I didn't? He's on this list down here. Don't even
to talk about him. He has trended. His strike cuts
have gone down, his walks have gone up. He's given
up more homers.
Speaker 3: He has the highest of qualified pitchers, he has the
highest walks for nine. Jose Soriano four five, five. Robbie
Ray is second. Oh that's not great, but high.
Speaker 2: Strikeouts don't make up for that, especially when they're trending
in the opposite direction. So like, who would you rather
the rest of the season, Davis Martin or Jose Soriano.
I think I might go with Davis Martin.
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't want either of them for the
rest of the season, honestly, but right I I don't know.
I'll take Soriano for that upside that he gave us
the first but I think they're both probably not very
good for the rest of the year.
Speaker 2: So here's one to watch. Gavin Williams. Gavin Williams came
out with the two seventy ra just because also I
feel like Joe and I were talking. I think we
were doing the Cole Reagans thing, and just because Gavin
Williams is really higher in the player Raider, Joe kind
of threw him out here and I was like, listen,
I don't. I don't think Gavin Williams has gotten to
the point where like two months of what he does
and then a blinders to the rest of the season
are going to put him over Reagan's next year if
he's healthy and he's Gavin Williams has been trending in
the wrong direction three five to five in May and
then six point six four this month. Strikeouts are maintaining,
but the walks last month was more of the outlier
because he walked only like one and a half per nine.
He's back over three, which he did in April as well.
He's giving up more homers. The home run the five
ball ratio is like ridiculous, Like when guys are getting
in the air, they are blasting on him. His velo
is up a little bit, but you know it's it's
kind of inconsistent contact. Like he's a really good strikeout guy.
Gavin Williams is feeling a little bit more like the
production you got from Dylan Cees and that can still
be a top fifteen ish guy, I suppose, But he's
trending in a direction that I think is hurting some
of the value. I think he could obviously bounce back,
but is it something. Is it trending in a direction
where you look and you say, he's a three to
eight pitcher with a really high strikeout rate on a
good team. Do you want to get out? Because I
kind of want to get out?
Speaker 3: Uh get out? I don't I want to Jordan Peel,
I don't think I want to get out. I think
he like it's been a lot of things that are
fixable for him, like the homers per nine this month
have been real bad. He's giving up more runs too,
but just cut those homers down and you'll be back
to where you were. Like the cape nine is so high,
the walk per nine is high, but it's not crazy.
So I think you just quick giving up the long
ball and that's it. What's his career year homer per
nine or home run percentage?
Speaker 2: I guess yeah, I could do home yeah, because I
don't really ever look at Let me see where can
I even find doc on the.
Speaker 3: Point for this year his career is one one three.
It was one two three last year, and it's really
just been a couple of like it's been bad starts
this month. They're not all horrid, but he is giving
up more runs, and it's the homers he's given up,
give up uh two in three straight games. He didn't
give up any against Chicago his last starting he had
eight strikeouts and one walk over five innings, only gave
up two runs, but get rid of that Gopher ball.
So I think I'm okay. On Gavin Williams side, I
think I'm in a holding. I'm not buying, but I'm
also not selling.
Speaker 2: Kind of going through just some other trending guys. Kyle
Harrison point ninety six era in May it's four eight
seven this month. The strikeouts have gotten better. The walks
are still really good, but it's been a little bit
of a home run problem when it's kind of just
solely focused on that one thing. I actually think that's
very manageable, So it might be like a really good
time to buy on Kyle Harrison Michael King Michael King
two four to one in April three nine three. In May,
the era is actually not worse this month. It's in
the mid three. So maybe that's who he is. But
they expected Era the worst this month fip x FIP.
His strikeouts down dramatically, though he is walking less and
you guessed it more homers as well. Any concerns about
Michael King and the trendown.
Speaker 3: Yeah, everything fell apart. It looks like here, so yeah,
this looks this looks rough, so it looks like it
hasn't happened yet, So that's kind of I think. Didn't
you mentioned trading Michael King a couple of days ago?
Speaker 2: I did it a while ago. I think I've mean,
I think I mentioned a couple different times. Don't know
why I always want to trade Michael King now, but
I have.
Speaker 3: Been I mean, I think now would be the time
to do it looking at all these expected stats being
really bad. So yeah, I think I would trade Michael.
Speaker 2: King uh one that you hate to see or I
hate to see. But Seae McClanahan really solid one four
to one in May, era five to seven nine this
past month or this current month, expected dra is obliterated
into the sixes. So there's not like this better telling story.
He is striking out more, but he is walking a
very concerning amount. Homer's are the issue. There's a little
bit of getting beat down on the Babbage side of it,
But I mean that's the thing. If you're gonna you're
gonna give more potential balls in play to these guys,
some things are gonna happen, and it's happening in a
bad way. So he's gonna need to find a way
to get the ball out of the zone a little bit.
More strikeouts are maybe dictating that, but that's also increasing
the walk. So that's like one of those things where
it's like, you know, you get the more strikeouts and
swings and stuff, but you're walking more guys. That's going
to create more bad situations for you know, guys on base,
and then you're pitching in the zone and getting beat up.
I'm like a little bit worried about this trend on
MC planning.
Speaker 3: How many games has he made it past the fifth
inning this year? Do you think?
Speaker 2: I mean, I haven't looked. I'm gonna say, like, get well,
how many Okay, he's pitched fiftefteen. I'm gonna start out
of the fifth so into the sixth, into the sixth,
ten of fifteen.
Speaker 3: Two?
Speaker 2: Oh jesus, I mean you kind of sum me up
for that. Yeah, you're right, I'm looking at this now. Wow,
he got the six inning he just.
Speaker 3: Won was his last start against the Royals, but the
other one was on May first.
Speaker 2: Yeah, against the Giants. Wow. But to be fair, how
many games has he not gone five? I mean, I
guess it's still one, two or five, six? Six of fifteen,
he's not gone five, But he's like, how many times
has he been blown up?
Speaker 3: Like he hasn't been really rocked a lot?
Speaker 1: Now?
Speaker 3: His last start he gave up six when only two
were earned. Uh, in the highest he's given up this four.
But he's also not going deep into games, so that
four is not good through five innings? You know, it
was through six or seven and be fine but not
through Yeah, this.
Speaker 2: Might be worrisome. Trend to pay attention to expected. Also,
his of his four pitches he's throwing, all of them
have higher expected batting averages. That could be a little
bit of a problem. It looks I don't know, the
fastballs is like maybe turning down just a tiny bit
as well they expected the ra is pretty worrisome. Maybe
maybe the rigors of a long season coming off that
injury are gonna come.
Speaker 3: Kilo has gone down every month ninety four, ninety three
point seven, ninety three point two.
Speaker 2: Maybe that's going to be Oh see, I see under
your mcclanan and you have ninety what is that?
Speaker 3: You know what? I'm looking at the wrong partyearling of.
Speaker 2: The wrong guy because I doesn't say he actually went
up on that. The next guy, just the last one,
Will Warren, He's yeah, fastball is trending down every single
month two five, ninety ra three eight two and then
four or five this month expected bad walks bad.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 2: He's not giving up homers actually, but his velo is
coming back down a little bit. That that is like
a real sign of worries. Like if we were to
look at like all the guys in this list. I mean,
I'm gonna just do a quick eye glance here. Fastball
Velo decreases month over month would be something where I'm like, ooh,
and I think Will Warren is really he's the only
guy in these trends that has that where it's like
ninety four ninety three and a half down to bottom
ninety three, Like that's a full mile per hoor decrease
over three months. Like I don't love that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, a lot of these guys are up or you know,
like Lozarno I have on this list just because he
is turning down a little bit. But it's zero point
four point three point two all ninety seven, so not
a big decrease. So yeah, it's just really Will Warren
interesting stuff.
Speaker 2: Hopefully you guys kind of dig that is you you
poke through, you try to in us staring at this,
you can you know, tell your own narratives about like
why and what reasons a guy might be able to
bounce back or be on the opposite side of this,
or sometimes you just simply look and you're just like
this is worrisome. I love Shane McClanahan, but I would
say there's some stuff in there where it's like he's
still putting up. He's a solid with a three one
five three three era the season. It still looks good.
I'm a little worried the hinges could come off a
little bit as the season goes on, So maybe he
is a trade candidate to potentially jump off of. So
there you go a little bit of pitcher trends there.
Let's take a look at our two start pitching board,
looking over as CBS's board, the high percentage players that
we don't need to really think too much about. Nolan
McClain kicks it off, though people might be thinking about
McClain maybe a little bit of concern because is I
think he's kind of a bye right now. He's got
Toronto and the Braves. No worries Tek Scoubel's got two starts,
Brian wu Jacob de Grom, a couple guys on this
Braxton Ashcraft has been dominant by the way. He's got
two roads starts. Nothing that's going to keep me off
of him, nor will Parker Messik. We'll take a little
stops here. Is Sandio Contra a okay, two sides. You
can feel good when you see he's going against Colorado
in A's and I would say, wow, is this the
get right? Except is there a place that you could
go to two works away ballparks? I mean, at least
playing in Vegas and yeah, and then in Sacramento he's
going though San diael conch That's to me, that's a runaway.
Speaker 3: The homi Ara is three one nine, the hawayra is
four nine seven.
Speaker 2: And he's gonna go to the two worst ballparks in baseball.
Speaker 3: The average is two fifteen at home, it's two ninety
nine away and the slugging three eighteen four fifty five.
Yet you know what I'm with you, I don't like it.
Speaker 2: Gross Trigger Savage, you're good. You probably go to the Rangers, Suarez,
Ryan Weathers, Tigers and Twins. High percentage own not high
percentage started though recently.
Speaker 3: Good start last time out. I think, so I'm I'll
be okay with Weathers.
Speaker 2: Not many people have been more Leathan Gauge jump by
the way. He has got the Dodgers, but then he's
got the Marlins, and you know what I'm doing it.
Speaker 3: They're both road He's been great.
Speaker 2: Gauge is too good right now. He had this really
interesting interview where he was like, you know, strikeouts are cool,
He's like, but it's not cool when it takes me
ten pitches to get there. He wants to go seven
every single start. He wants to be efficient.
Speaker 3: It's almost as good as the adult rushing. I'm a
grown man and I still have to have assistance. So yeah,
I don't understand it.
Speaker 2: It's embarteresting, but I love Gage, so I'm definitely down
with Gage here. Tanner Biby, who we just talked about,
has got the Rangers and the White Sox that actually
is not like maybe the worst matchups if you're continuing
this kind.
Speaker 3: Of kid White Sox been good.
Speaker 2: Just yeah, but if you want to play this git
right thing, I don't hate it. Shane Bob's White Sox.
And then at the Reds yeah or nay mm probably
nay yeah. I mean if I if you can't avoid
I think I might be considering.
Speaker 3: Ellie back at the Reds. The White Sox are kind
of surging right now. Yeah, I'm gonna pass all right.
Speaker 2: Grant Holmes Cardinals and then the Mets both are at home, though.
Speaker 3: Grant Holmes just hasn't been good, So no.
Speaker 2: I'm with you, Boba Chandler was actually pretty good today,
went five, give up Wonder and run. But he's got
the Phillies and it's said to be Arstanchez and then
at Washington words. Also, I completely agree with you, uh
Sean Berke Orioles and the Guardians.
Speaker 3: Yep, I'll roll him.
Speaker 2: You need to Aaron Nola Pittsburgh and the Royals.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Ashcroft is not a good start against,
but the Royal has been bad.
Speaker 2: So I like Aaron Nola more than I like like
Oz and Bubba Chandler. Yeah, I agree Lodola against Milwaukee
and I yeah, I don't even like Zebbie Matthews. We're
now fifty against Houston in no way New York. Yeah,
I agree Griffin. Jack's got the Royals and the Astros
both on the road.
Speaker 3: I like it, Okay, Yeah, start his last.
Speaker 2: One ury ury come back from injuries, going to Colorado
and then he's going to the A's. So that I
can be honest with you, I don't think I like
it either. If it was like you had to, you
had to put them in and if you don't have
an option of an option, but like, I don't think
I want to do it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, he looked good in his first start back. That's fine.
I don't want to start him at Colorado and at
the A's, and the A's game is against Jump right,
So if you if you can't start him, I would
rather start him against Colorado. Stick up with you.
Speaker 2: Two guys that actually put on the waiver pitcher pickup.
They have two starts this week. Javier assad has been
one nine eight ERA over his last four or in June,
he's going against Padres and the Cardinals. And then also
Brandon Sprot down here twenty five percent on the CBS
has got the Reds and the Diamondbacks, and Sprot has
been good over.
Speaker 3: His last truck out ten.
Speaker 2: I like both of those guys in two starts. Those
are really good pickups on two starts. Eric Lawer's got
the A's and the Padres. I actually also don't hate that.
The only other ones Mitch Bratt theoretically would be going
against the Giants and the Brewers. Ryan Johnson just had
that no hitter for a little bit, but him and
Rough any of these guys that are really low percentage.
There's Liberatore, there's Fetti. Does anybody do anything for you?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 3: Not really, this is pretty slim pickings on here. I
don't hate Brian Johnson or Ryan Johnson excuse me. At
the Mariners is a good ballpark. And then the Red
Sox haven't been hitting, so maybe by the rest of them. No,
Spott is my only like low own, low rostered player
from CBS that I really want.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Sprott and Asade, those are the two that I'm
not only just looking to picking up their two starts,
so that's probably where I would end up looking. So
there you'll go. There you go, friends. That is everything
that we got for you for the episode today. Back
again next week. We are getting close to not just July,
but the All Star Game. We'll probably we're gonna have
to break. We're gonna have to have our second draft too.
We have our second draft. We'll have a second half
draft coming up here. The MLB draft is coming up.
There's a lot on that dynasty side doing a little
P one ADP action probably also, you know, just gonna
need to tackle maybe like our first half fantasy team,
not just just the All Star team, but our fantasy
We got some fun stuff coming up here. Two episodes
next week. Make sure you're locked into that make sure
you go over to Fantasy Pros check out everything. I
got Joe Rico with me tomorrow on Friday, and probably
a few more shows coming up. Has taken some time,
some different things, so make sure you're tuned in there.
We're still rocking five days a week over on Fantasy Pros,
so make sure you check out the podcast or check
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snell Zilla Blake Snell partners with PDA Light and I
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It's just a me thing. I will laugh at it forever.
It is one of my favorites of all time. Part
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Speaker 2: All right, I gotta go take care of him to
that's horrible. That's why I had to leave, leave in
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