WEBVTT 1 00:00:05.200 --> 00:00:08.160 Good evening, everybody, and welcome to another edition of The 2 00:00:08.199 --> 00:00:11.359 Cajun Knight Live. I am your host, the Cajun Knight, 3 00:00:11.480 --> 00:00:13.640 Jacob Mook, and a lot of things that have been 4 00:00:13.640 --> 00:00:18.800 going on here recently. Right now, we have currently a 5 00:00:18.920 --> 00:00:23.640 tentative ceasefire going on between the United States, Israel, and 6 00:00:23.760 --> 00:00:29.199 Iranian forces, and I started hearing reports of the ceasefire 7 00:00:29.239 --> 00:00:32.759 being broken. And it depends, as always when it comes 8 00:00:32.840 --> 00:00:35.079 to a conflict like this, it depends on where you 9 00:00:35.119 --> 00:00:39.960 were getting that information from. The Jerusalem Post was clearly 10 00:00:40.000 --> 00:00:42.840 posting that Iran had broken the ceasefire, and then the 11 00:00:42.880 --> 00:00:46.039 Iranians were saying that clearly America had sent another bombing 12 00:00:46.119 --> 00:00:49.799 run after the ceasefire was called. Come to find out, 13 00:00:50.159 --> 00:00:54.960 neither of those are accurate. The UAE sent a jet 14 00:00:55.200 --> 00:00:58.119 to drop a bomb on a power plant. Apparently no 15 00:00:58.159 --> 00:01:01.200 one informed the Immirate or the Amadis. 16 00:01:01.320 --> 00:01:02.159 How are the fucking shit? 17 00:01:02.359 --> 00:01:05.000 Nobody informed them that a ceasefire had just started and 18 00:01:05.040 --> 00:01:06.719 they already had a jet inbound. 19 00:01:07.159 --> 00:01:08.760 But we'll get to all of it. We'll get to 20 00:01:08.799 --> 00:01:09.159 all of it. 21 00:01:09.719 --> 00:01:12.599 And I am curious what everybody's thoughts are as far 22 00:01:12.640 --> 00:01:18.000 as if this ceasefire is going to actually go down, right, 23 00:01:18.040 --> 00:01:21.400 will cooler heads prevail? I haven't heard anything as far 24 00:01:21.439 --> 00:01:23.200 as uh, you know, there was a ten point plan 25 00:01:23.280 --> 00:01:25.959 that was proposed, and then the other side proposed their 26 00:01:26.000 --> 00:01:28.400 own ten point plan, neither of which is something that 27 00:01:28.879 --> 00:01:30.959 either side is really willing to go down on. So 28 00:01:31.040 --> 00:01:32.799 I don't I don't know, I don't know. There's a 29 00:01:32.840 --> 00:01:35.159 lot of up in the air conversations as of this moment. 30 00:01:35.640 --> 00:01:37.159 But that's what we're here to do. 31 00:01:37.159 --> 00:01:38.319 To talk about it all. 32 00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:40.959 So I'm gonna go ahead and share the screen and 33 00:01:41.040 --> 00:01:44.319 let's get started on this journey that we happen to 34 00:01:44.319 --> 00:01:49.000 find ourselves in. So right off the rip, what is 35 00:01:49.040 --> 00:01:51.359 going on the screen? Why is that still there? 36 00:01:51.439 --> 00:01:54.599 There? We go? All right, so live updates Iran's war. 37 00:01:54.680 --> 00:01:58.760 Ceasefire begins, though some new attacks hit the Gulf Trumpet, 38 00:01:58.879 --> 00:02:03.959 Yaho say Lebanon not included in the ceasefire. Now, this 39 00:02:04.040 --> 00:02:06.159 is going to be a source of contention, and I 40 00:02:06.239 --> 00:02:10.800 understand that, Uh, the ceasefire was between it wasn't for 41 00:02:10.840 --> 00:02:13.479 the entirety of the Middle East. That was just between 42 00:02:13.520 --> 00:02:18.719 the three key players. However, the UAE still sent a jet. 43 00:02:19.199 --> 00:02:21.919 They were allegedly not a part of the ceasefire, So 44 00:02:22.080 --> 00:02:24.360 why are they a part of it? And then where 45 00:02:24.360 --> 00:02:26.479 do we draw the line. Is Lebanon a part of 46 00:02:26.479 --> 00:02:28.960 the ceasefire deal or not? Let's read about it here. 47 00:02:29.000 --> 00:02:32.000 So this is from NBC. I understand you got to 48 00:02:32.080 --> 00:02:34.439 question the source. I get that, but let's read about it. 49 00:02:34.840 --> 00:02:36.560 So what to know. 50 00:02:36.639 --> 00:02:39.479 There's a fragile ceasefire that has begun. The United States 51 00:02:39.520 --> 00:02:43.199 and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire hours before 52 00:02:43.240 --> 00:02:46.719 President Trump's deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of 53 00:02:46.719 --> 00:02:53.000 Horn moves or see quote a whole civilization die, which 54 00:02:53.919 --> 00:02:56.680 is very strong wording. I don't believe that Trump was 55 00:02:56.719 --> 00:03:00.520 serious about that, But even if you're not, that that's 56 00:03:00.599 --> 00:03:04.879 genocidal conversation and that is not what the leader of 57 00:03:04.919 --> 00:03:08.479 the free world should be speaking like. I'm just gonna 58 00:03:08.479 --> 00:03:10.960 call a spade a spade here. But anyway, moving on 59 00:03:12.199 --> 00:03:17.639 Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Lebanon came under intense attacks after 60 00:03:17.800 --> 00:03:21.199 Israel said it was not covered by the agreement, contradicting 61 00:03:21.319 --> 00:03:25.719 mediator Pakistan. Lebanon's health ministry said hundreds had been killed 62 00:03:25.840 --> 00:03:28.560 or wounded in the new round of strikes now the 63 00:03:28.599 --> 00:03:32.360 Horror Moves uncertainty. An Iranian news agency reported that oil 64 00:03:32.439 --> 00:03:34.879 traffic through the Strait of Horror Moves was halted again 65 00:03:35.560 --> 00:03:39.000 hours after the first tankers were allowed to pass, sighting 66 00:03:39.439 --> 00:03:42.759 Israel's Lebanon strikes. Trump earlier said that the US will 67 00:03:42.759 --> 00:03:44.759 be helping with the traffic build up in the street. 68 00:03:45.319 --> 00:03:46.120 I'll bet they will. 69 00:03:47.039 --> 00:03:50.439 The Iranian attacks, Persian Gulf State's ball Rain, the United 70 00:03:50.759 --> 00:03:54.639 Arab Immirates, and Kuwait reported new Iranian attacks this morning 71 00:03:54.719 --> 00:03:57.479 after blasts were reported at oil sites in Iran. 72 00:03:58.199 --> 00:03:59.240 So it's not just the. 73 00:03:59.280 --> 00:04:04.080 UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain are now in the mix. As 74 00:04:04.080 --> 00:04:05.960 far as like, wait, there's a ceasefire, why is there's 75 00:04:05.960 --> 00:04:08.400 still any type of ordnance being dropped? 76 00:04:08.840 --> 00:04:09.759 And if that's true? 77 00:04:09.960 --> 00:04:13.159 And I don't know if Lebanon was a part of 78 00:04:13.159 --> 00:04:17.120 the deal through Pakistan, I honestly never heard that. I'm 79 00:04:17.120 --> 00:04:19.399 not the most well read on the situation, but I 80 00:04:19.439 --> 00:04:22.240 hadn't heard that, So maybe there's something there. 81 00:04:22.240 --> 00:04:26.240 I don't know. We'll read more. Market surge. 82 00:04:26.319 --> 00:04:29.319 The price of oil dropped and stock prices soared this 83 00:04:29.439 --> 00:04:33.240 morning in response to the ceasefire. Despite uncertainty over the 84 00:04:33.279 --> 00:04:36.839 deal and the potential for long term economic scars from 85 00:04:37.000 --> 00:04:40.199 the five weeks of war. So it's next. Trump said 86 00:04:40.240 --> 00:04:44.160 Iran's ten point peace proposal was a workable basis on 87 00:04:44.199 --> 00:04:48.079 which to negotiate a fuller deal, but Pakistan, saying talks 88 00:04:48.120 --> 00:04:51.160 would begin Friday. Now, let's talk about the death toll. 89 00:04:51.800 --> 00:04:54.560 Over fifteen hundred people have been killed in Lebanon and 90 00:04:54.680 --> 00:04:58.240 twenty three have died in Israel. Iranian officials have not 91 00:04:58.319 --> 00:05:02.160 released recent death tolls, but the US based rights group 92 00:05:02.360 --> 00:05:04.920 h R A and A put the total killed at 93 00:05:04.959 --> 00:05:09.160 almost thirty four hundred, including more than sixteen hundred civilians. 94 00:05:09.759 --> 00:05:13.639 I feel like that's probably accurate. I'm sure it's not 95 00:05:13.720 --> 00:05:15.920 exact number. There's gonna be a little bit of leeway 96 00:05:15.920 --> 00:05:19.240 on that one, but I feel like that's probably more 97 00:05:19.240 --> 00:05:21.360 accurate than not. I don't think that we've, you know, 98 00:05:21.439 --> 00:05:24.959 the United States has killed like twenty thousand Iranians. I 99 00:05:24.959 --> 00:05:26.920 don't think it's it hadn't been a big number like that, 100 00:05:27.040 --> 00:05:30.959 but yeah, thirty four hundred, give or take, probably closer 101 00:05:31.000 --> 00:05:36.360 to like four thousand. I could see sixteen hundred civilians. Yeah, 102 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:40.920 that's probably accurate. Thirteen US service members have been killed 103 00:05:40.920 --> 00:05:45.000 and two more died of non combat causes. That's just 104 00:05:45.040 --> 00:05:50.000 wrong place, wrong time, honestly, insights and analysis get exclusive 105 00:05:50.040 --> 00:05:53.480 up about okay, moving on, Moving on, so Iran ports 106 00:05:53.560 --> 00:05:56.439 authorities announced alternate shipping routes in the Straight of Horm 107 00:05:56.480 --> 00:05:57.839 Moves to avoid naval mindes. 108 00:05:58.519 --> 00:06:01.279 So I did a little more digging into this. 109 00:06:01.319 --> 00:06:03.360 So the Straight of Horror Moves is not a wide 110 00:06:03.399 --> 00:06:06.279 gap into like forty nautical miles or forty two. 111 00:06:06.319 --> 00:06:09.360 It's something like that. It's not a big stretch of water. 112 00:06:10.160 --> 00:06:13.199 And then when you look at the actual like the 113 00:06:13.279 --> 00:06:15.000 sand banks underneath. 114 00:06:14.920 --> 00:06:17.800 There's realistically only like a four mile. 115 00:06:19.160 --> 00:06:21.480 I don't want to say gap, but a four mile 116 00:06:21.639 --> 00:06:24.680 straight in the very dead center of it where the 117 00:06:24.720 --> 00:06:27.519 big ships make their traffic. And that's why they were 118 00:06:27.519 --> 00:06:28.879 able to shut it down. They just had to mine 119 00:06:28.879 --> 00:06:30.560 the very center because no ships are going on to 120 00:06:30.639 --> 00:06:35.120 the outside as for fear of hitting something. So now 121 00:06:35.160 --> 00:06:38.120 Auran is saying that there is actually an alternative shipping 122 00:06:38.199 --> 00:06:42.519 route despite the mines, so let's talk about it here. 123 00:06:42.600 --> 00:06:45.560 So ships have been directed to use alternative shipping routes 124 00:06:45.600 --> 00:06:47.720 in the Straight of Horror Moves to avoid potential naval 125 00:06:47.759 --> 00:06:50.480 mines in the main traffic zone of the trade route, 126 00:06:50.600 --> 00:06:54.199 the Iranian Ports and Maritime organizations announced today. According to 127 00:06:54.480 --> 00:06:59.079 SNN news agency, the Port organization advised that due to 128 00:06:59.120 --> 00:07:02.800 the wartime situation, vessels should coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary 129 00:07:02.839 --> 00:07:06.519 Guard Corps Navy and use the outline detours. The statement 130 00:07:06.600 --> 00:07:11.439 said it included recommendations for both an inbound and outbound route. 131 00:07:11.680 --> 00:07:15.920 Uncertainty has surrounded the critical waterways status since the US 132 00:07:15.959 --> 00:07:19.399 and Iran agreed to a two weeks seast fire yesterday 133 00:07:19.399 --> 00:07:22.680 following Trump's demand that the straight be reopened. Oil traffic 134 00:07:22.720 --> 00:07:25.600 through the strait was halted again today, just hours after 135 00:07:25.639 --> 00:07:28.079 the first vessels were allowed to pass through, because of 136 00:07:28.160 --> 00:07:30.879 Israel strikes and Lebanon. And this is from an Iranian 137 00:07:30.920 --> 00:07:34.160 news agency, at least that's what they said. Vance told 138 00:07:34.199 --> 00:07:36.879 reporters today that if Iran does not followed through with 139 00:07:36.920 --> 00:07:39.519 the opening of the strait, the ceasefire will end, but 140 00:07:39.600 --> 00:07:42.639 he did not provide details of the expected timeline to 141 00:07:42.759 --> 00:07:45.480 open the strait. Both sides are just trying to leave 142 00:07:45.519 --> 00:07:48.040 this thing open ended, to give themselves some sort of 143 00:07:48.079 --> 00:07:53.839 like a what's the word, like a legal Basically, they're 144 00:07:53.839 --> 00:07:56.319 trying to make it to where well, we didn't say that, 145 00:07:56.480 --> 00:07:58.360 they're trying to give it like some sort of illegal 146 00:07:58.399 --> 00:08:01.959 loophole in their wording, which as politic in one zero one. 147 00:08:02.040 --> 00:08:05.560 To be honest with you now, Root says that Trump 148 00:08:05.600 --> 00:08:09.160 is disappointed with NATO's allies and he can see his point. 149 00:08:09.639 --> 00:08:12.720 NATO Secretary General Mark Root said that Trump is clearly 150 00:08:12.720 --> 00:08:15.680 disappointed with many NATO allies and that he can see 151 00:08:15.720 --> 00:08:18.279 his point. Shortly after he left a closed door meeting 152 00:08:18.319 --> 00:08:21.319 with Trump this evening. Let me be absolutely clear, he 153 00:08:21.399 --> 00:08:25.439 is clearly disappointed and with how and with many NATO allies, 154 00:08:25.759 --> 00:08:26.720 and I could see his point. 155 00:08:26.800 --> 00:08:27.399 God, they just. 156 00:08:27.319 --> 00:08:29.439 Repeated that for three times, back to back. We got 157 00:08:29.480 --> 00:08:32.639 the fucking message. Dog Rut added that he believed that 158 00:08:32.679 --> 00:08:35.279 the large majority of European nations were helpful to the 159 00:08:35.399 --> 00:08:38.519 US during the war in Iran with basing, with logistics, 160 00:08:38.559 --> 00:08:42.200 with overflights. He said there was widespread support for Trump's 161 00:08:42.240 --> 00:08:45.120 actions in the war as degrading the nuclear and the 162 00:08:45.240 --> 00:08:49.519 inter ballistic missile capacity of the Iran from Iran rather 163 00:08:49.679 --> 00:08:53.759 was really crucial fair enough. Root could not answer whether 164 00:08:53.799 --> 00:08:55.639 the straight of Horn moves has been opened in the 165 00:08:55.639 --> 00:08:58.279 wake of Trump's demands and that the critical trade route 166 00:08:58.480 --> 00:09:01.000 was cleared. I don't have the intelligence now at my 167 00:09:01.000 --> 00:09:03.120 fingertips to give you that answer, but I think over 168 00:09:03.159 --> 00:09:06.879 the next couple of days we will know more. Root said, Also, God, 169 00:09:06.919 --> 00:09:08.159 I wish I would have brought this up, and I 170 00:09:08.159 --> 00:09:09.120 still might search for it. 171 00:09:09.320 --> 00:09:13.720 The Chairman of the Joint chiefs this thing. 172 00:09:13.759 --> 00:09:16.559 He's like a four star naval general, I'm sorry, air 173 00:09:16.600 --> 00:09:20.080 Force air Force general. He had talked about how they, 174 00:09:20.320 --> 00:09:24.080 by their estimations, they had drank like three million, four 175 00:09:24.159 --> 00:09:28.080 hundred thousand gallons of coffee, hundreds of thousands of energy drinks, 176 00:09:28.320 --> 00:09:31.440 and an absurd amount of nicotine. Board doing okay, And 177 00:09:31.480 --> 00:09:34.879 I'm just like, ah, this guy gets it. This guy 178 00:09:34.919 --> 00:09:38.200 gets it. What makes it war happen is caffeine and nicotine, dude. 179 00:09:38.360 --> 00:09:40.120 But it was weird because he was so dry with it. 180 00:09:40.120 --> 00:09:42.480 It looked like he was reading like an actual statistic, 181 00:09:42.960 --> 00:09:46.279 even though he was clearly being funny. But yeah, anyone, anyone, 182 00:09:46.399 --> 00:09:47.879 I might find that here in a minute to play. 183 00:09:47.879 --> 00:09:51.480 It was actually pretty good. Holy sites in Jerusalem to 184 00:09:51.519 --> 00:09:55.120 reopen this week. Jerusalem police say sorry, tomorrow, Jerusalem's holy 185 00:09:55.159 --> 00:09:58.480 sites will reopen to visitors and worshippers with heightened security 186 00:09:58.519 --> 00:10:00.879 throughout the district Jerus When the police said in a 187 00:10:00.919 --> 00:10:03.639 statement visitors should plan for long lines and heavy traffic 188 00:10:03.679 --> 00:10:06.679 as local police deploy hundreds of officers and volunteers along 189 00:10:06.759 --> 00:10:09.559 major routes in the Old City and near holy sites. 190 00:10:09.840 --> 00:10:12.960 The public is urged to arrive with patients and to 191 00:10:13.000 --> 00:10:17.000 be prepared to follow police instructions. Yeah, I'll bet so, brother. 192 00:10:17.039 --> 00:10:19.440 Now let's get to this. At least two hundred and 193 00:10:19.480 --> 00:10:23.120 fifty four killed at least eleven hundred and sixty five 194 00:10:23.279 --> 00:10:27.000 injured in Israeli attack on Lebanon. This is from Lebanon 195 00:10:27.080 --> 00:10:30.679 civil events, that is what they said. They include ninety 196 00:10:30.679 --> 00:10:32.960 two civilian dead in Bea Route and sixty one in 197 00:10:32.960 --> 00:10:36.159 the capitol southern suburbs. More than nine hundred and forty 198 00:10:36.200 --> 00:10:39.279 people were injured in those areas today, the vast majority 199 00:10:39.399 --> 00:10:41.200 seven hundred and forty two in Beirut. 200 00:10:41.480 --> 00:10:45.320 Lebanese officials said this on Facebook. Civil defense teams. 201 00:10:45.080 --> 00:10:50.320 Have conducted emergency response operations, including providing medical assistance, evacuating 202 00:10:50.360 --> 00:10:52.960 the injured, and recovering the dead. According to the Post, 203 00:10:53.279 --> 00:10:56.519 specialized teams are actively conducting search and rescue operations, and 204 00:10:56.559 --> 00:10:59.759 we're moving debris at multiple sites, which may result in 205 00:10:59.759 --> 00:11:03.600 an increased toll as field operations progress. You know, I 206 00:11:03.600 --> 00:11:06.879 gotta say, we really have not heard much about the 207 00:11:06.919 --> 00:11:10.000 situation in Lebanon, and I'm of the belief that that's 208 00:11:10.000 --> 00:11:14.080 by design. Right, the mainstream media, they may have a 209 00:11:14.759 --> 00:11:20.639 small little amens, if you will, they're not talking about it, like, oh, 210 00:11:20.679 --> 00:11:22.240 by the way, I know this whole thing's going on 211 00:11:22.279 --> 00:11:25.519 with Iran, but did y'all know that Israel just invaded Lebanon? 212 00:11:26.039 --> 00:11:28.360 Like that's just not a thing that I hear a 213 00:11:28.360 --> 00:11:30.559 lot of people talking about for some reason, and it's 214 00:11:31.080 --> 00:11:34.120 mind blowing. But anyway, all right, that was pretty much 215 00:11:34.120 --> 00:11:36.120 all I wanted to read off of this article. Let's 216 00:11:36.159 --> 00:11:39.320 hear this. So this is a Middle East expert providing 217 00:11:39.399 --> 00:11:42.000 insight on the US Aoran ceasefire. 218 00:11:42.960 --> 00:11:47.360 I'm back today is reel conducted strikes on Lebanon, which 219 00:11:47.399 --> 00:11:50.799 are some of the first tests of the temporary ceasefire 220 00:11:50.879 --> 00:11:54.639 between the US and Iran. Both President Trump and Israeli 221 00:11:54.720 --> 00:11:58.200 leaders are saying the deal did not include Lebanon, but 222 00:11:58.440 --> 00:12:01.840 Irani and state media is reporting that oil traffic through 223 00:12:01.879 --> 00:12:05.480 the Strait of Hormuz was stopped again. Joining us now 224 00:12:05.480 --> 00:12:09.000 to share some insight about these developments is doctor Brent Sassly. 225 00:12:09.279 --> 00:12:11.399 He is the chair of the political science department at 226 00:12:11.440 --> 00:12:14.639 the University of Texas at Arlington and an expert on 227 00:12:14.720 --> 00:12:18.200 Middle Eastern politics. Brent, welcome to our show, and thanks 228 00:12:18.240 --> 00:12:19.240 for talking to us today. 229 00:12:19.960 --> 00:12:20.840 Thanks for having me. 230 00:12:21.120 --> 00:12:24.879 This is a very ever changing situation, so of course 231 00:12:24.879 --> 00:12:26.600 we're going to couch that with anything that we talk 232 00:12:26.639 --> 00:12:30.279 about here. But despite this ceasefire taking effect, there are 233 00:12:30.399 --> 00:12:34.600 still attacks happening today throughout that region. So how do 234 00:12:34.639 --> 00:12:37.039 you think that affects this deal really holding? 235 00:12:38.440 --> 00:12:41.080 Well, it makes it more complex. I think we first 236 00:12:41.120 --> 00:12:45.440 have to recognize that any effort, any partially successful effort, 237 00:12:45.519 --> 00:12:48.799 even at a ceasefire, that would stop the fighting, is 238 00:12:48.840 --> 00:12:51.720 a good thing. Anything that can stop the destruction and 239 00:12:51.759 --> 00:12:54.200 the loss of lives is a good thing. The problem 240 00:12:54.279 --> 00:12:56.720 is in this case that there are multiple, several moving 241 00:12:56.759 --> 00:12:59.919 parts and they are all connected. For example, has been 242 00:13:00.360 --> 00:13:03.759 is intimately tied to Iran, and so Israel sees not 243 00:13:03.840 --> 00:13:06.679 just Iran as a threat, but Hesbela, and it sees 244 00:13:06.759 --> 00:13:10.279 Iran as Hesbela is because it is Hesbela's main backer 245 00:13:10.799 --> 00:13:13.360 it can't really separate the two, and so even though 246 00:13:13.399 --> 00:13:16.600 there's a ceasefire with Iran, at least with the United States, 247 00:13:16.720 --> 00:13:19.120 it has no intention of stopping the firing and the 248 00:13:19.159 --> 00:13:20.919 attacking on Hesbela in Lebanon. 249 00:13:21.519 --> 00:13:24.200 Something else that's really stuck out to me. As these 250 00:13:24.399 --> 00:13:27.360 developments have so quickly changed over the past few days, 251 00:13:27.840 --> 00:13:30.919 Iran seems to be emerging from the war with much 252 00:13:30.960 --> 00:13:34.039 more control over that vile strait of horror moves that 253 00:13:34.080 --> 00:13:36.840 we've talked so much about. Can you talk about how 254 00:13:36.960 --> 00:13:39.120 accurate that is and what do you think it means 255 00:13:39.120 --> 00:13:39.759 for the future. 256 00:13:40.879 --> 00:13:45.159 It's fairly accurate. Iran's has installations all along the coast 257 00:13:45.240 --> 00:13:48.240 that is along that channel, and it has the capability 258 00:13:48.279 --> 00:13:51.480 to warn ships and crafts that are going through that 259 00:13:51.559 --> 00:13:53.639 if they continue then they will be fired on, which 260 00:13:53.679 --> 00:13:56.960 has in fact happened. And so it is in enormous control, 261 00:13:57.000 --> 00:14:00.360 which is why one of Trump. President Trump's points has 262 00:14:00.399 --> 00:14:03.240 been that Iran has to give up that control, or 263 00:14:03.279 --> 00:14:05.919 at least has to create conditions so that it can't 264 00:14:05.960 --> 00:14:09.600 do something like that. Again, that's highly unlikely. Iran will 265 00:14:09.600 --> 00:14:12.000 not give it up, especially now that it knows it 266 00:14:12.679 --> 00:14:15.200 is some form of leverage that it has on the 267 00:14:15.279 --> 00:14:18.120 United States and on the world more broadly. So I 268 00:14:18.159 --> 00:14:20.759 suspect we probably won't see too much effort on that 269 00:14:20.799 --> 00:14:24.360 particular issue, but of course the conversations will continue. 270 00:14:24.639 --> 00:14:28.360 Yes, of course, Tuesday Nights deal caused a drop in 271 00:14:28.440 --> 00:14:31.000 fuel prices here in the US, as well as some 272 00:14:31.039 --> 00:14:34.399 of the stock futures going up as well. But what 273 00:14:34.559 --> 00:14:37.080 hope should we have that gas prices here in the 274 00:14:37.159 --> 00:14:39.200 US will in turn do the same thing. 275 00:14:40.679 --> 00:14:43.360 We should have some hope. These things typically are a 276 00:14:43.480 --> 00:14:46.519 lag So just because the price of oil went down 277 00:14:46.799 --> 00:14:49.320 doesn't mean that we're going to immediately see a major 278 00:14:49.399 --> 00:14:53.440 drop in oil prices. At the gas tank. There are 279 00:14:53.440 --> 00:14:56.679 a number of facilities where damaged oil and natural gas. 280 00:14:56.720 --> 00:14:58.799 It's going to take time to get those back up 281 00:14:58.879 --> 00:15:02.240 and running and to get the fossil fuels back into 282 00:15:02.279 --> 00:15:06.279 the pipeline there. So, if there is no resumption of 283 00:15:06.320 --> 00:15:08.799 the violence between the United States and Iran, we will 284 00:15:08.840 --> 00:15:11.279 still have to wait some time before we can see 285 00:15:11.679 --> 00:15:14.360 a change in our pockets. But any any progress, again, 286 00:15:14.399 --> 00:15:15.519 I said, is welcome. 287 00:15:15.840 --> 00:15:17.799 Yeah, okay, So. 288 00:15:20.360 --> 00:15:22.279 I don't know how to feel about the ceasefire. I 289 00:15:23.480 --> 00:15:26.879 am happy that a ceasefire was at least agreed upon tentatively. 290 00:15:27.360 --> 00:15:30.000 That's a positive for everybody. I'm not negating that. 291 00:15:31.240 --> 00:15:35.120 I don't know a if it'll hold b because that's 292 00:15:35.159 --> 00:15:37.759 the other thing too. We've talked about this for either 293 00:15:37.799 --> 00:15:41.399 side to quote unquote win, What does winning look like? 294 00:15:42.320 --> 00:15:44.519 That's that's a question that I feel like a lot 295 00:15:44.600 --> 00:15:50.519 of military campaigns over the past thirty years have had 296 00:15:50.559 --> 00:15:54.639 to really question once they got started. Everybody is all 297 00:15:54.639 --> 00:15:57.360 too excited to get up in arms and start shooting 298 00:15:57.399 --> 00:16:00.639 and start bombing all the things. Yeah, military, sure, complex 299 00:16:00.679 --> 00:16:06.039 gonna eat. But when it comes time for a draw down, 300 00:16:06.840 --> 00:16:12.960 a egress out of the area, anything like this, how 301 00:16:13.000 --> 00:16:16.120 do how do either side of a conflict like this 302 00:16:16.360 --> 00:16:20.879 quantify what a victory looks like? Is a victory just 303 00:16:20.919 --> 00:16:26.720 simply not losing is a victory for America? We've said this, like, 304 00:16:27.120 --> 00:16:29.840 is regime change a win? Is that what we will 305 00:16:29.919 --> 00:16:32.320 quantify as the victory that we set out for? 306 00:16:32.519 --> 00:16:32.879 Okay? 307 00:16:33.320 --> 00:16:37.639 Possibly, But if we put in a new regime and 308 00:16:37.679 --> 00:16:40.799 they're unwilling to deal, and they're unwilling to make some 309 00:16:40.840 --> 00:16:42.399 sort of a cut rate on oil or any of 310 00:16:42.480 --> 00:16:46.600 these things, we didn't win. That's not a victory right, 311 00:16:46.759 --> 00:16:48.639 long term yeah, and the short term just for the 312 00:16:48.639 --> 00:16:52.440 headlines and the you know, news articles and all these things. 313 00:16:52.440 --> 00:16:54.840 Sure it's a win, but is that actually the victory 314 00:16:54.879 --> 00:16:55.960 we were set out to do? 315 00:16:56.559 --> 00:16:59.440 And then for Iran is a victory. 316 00:16:59.120 --> 00:17:03.360 Just survival, just the resistance of a regime change, and 317 00:17:03.399 --> 00:17:05.960 as long as the iotola remains in power? Do they 318 00:17:06.000 --> 00:17:09.759 take this as a win when they got massive chunks 319 00:17:09.759 --> 00:17:14.440 of their infrastructure bomb to shit and a rising death toll? 320 00:17:15.200 --> 00:17:17.200 How do they Is that what they classify as a 321 00:17:17.279 --> 00:17:19.880 victory in this case? And I understand that's way too 322 00:17:19.920 --> 00:17:23.680 philosophical and it goes into many levels and many nuances. 323 00:17:23.720 --> 00:17:27.160 But I don't think there's going to be a way 324 00:17:27.200 --> 00:17:29.960 to cleanly walk away from this, which is why it 325 00:17:30.039 --> 00:17:33.839 blew my mind that we actually the bombing last year, 326 00:17:34.359 --> 00:17:37.680 when we sent stealth bombers in and blew up their 327 00:17:38.160 --> 00:17:44.559 underground nuclear bunkers. Okay, I wasn't massively you know, cheering 328 00:17:44.599 --> 00:17:47.359 that on, but also wasn't like scoffing at it either. 329 00:17:47.480 --> 00:17:52.039 I understood. I understood why America and Israel would want 330 00:17:52.079 --> 00:17:55.759 to strike the nuclear infrastructure of Iran. Okay, I could 331 00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:58.039 least I could at least put the pieces together and 332 00:17:58.079 --> 00:18:01.680 make the picture. In my head, this is a lot 333 00:18:01.759 --> 00:18:05.400 more than that. And again, I'm in favor of the 334 00:18:05.480 --> 00:18:08.079 United States military, and I'm in favor of US flexing 335 00:18:08.079 --> 00:18:11.680 from time to time. But what kind of a real 336 00:18:12.119 --> 00:18:14.039 end goal were we aiming for here? 337 00:18:14.920 --> 00:18:15.359 I don't know. 338 00:18:15.640 --> 00:18:17.599 I know we're getting way off in the weeds too 339 00:18:17.599 --> 00:18:22.160 early on, and I apologize about that. Let's see, got 340 00:18:22.200 --> 00:18:26.680 some comments going on here? Oh Sam Sam has finally 341 00:18:26.759 --> 00:18:30.240 joined us. Good to see you, sir. I heard it 342 00:18:30.240 --> 00:18:33.359 all comes down to whether Lebanon has included Israel says no, 343 00:18:33.559 --> 00:18:34.599 Aron says yes. 344 00:18:34.920 --> 00:18:35.839 Most of it is too. 345 00:18:35.799 --> 00:18:39.359 Shit, Yeah, Tony, if you could look this up please, 346 00:18:39.599 --> 00:18:42.279 because I do not know if Lebanon was a part 347 00:18:42.319 --> 00:18:45.720 of the deal through Pakistan or not. Both sides just 348 00:18:45.759 --> 00:18:48.480 saying one thing or another. I haven't found any literature 349 00:18:48.519 --> 00:18:50.279 to say one way or another, to be honest with you. 350 00:18:51.559 --> 00:18:56.799 Well, what I remember reading is that the Pakistani guys, 351 00:18:56.839 --> 00:19:01.480 we're saying Lebanon was one of Iron's conditions and that 352 00:19:01.599 --> 00:19:03.960 the US agreed to it. The US is saying, no, 353 00:19:04.000 --> 00:19:06.200 we didn't agree to that party. I think both sides 354 00:19:06.240 --> 00:19:08.960 have such different standards of victory that we're just not 355 00:19:09.039 --> 00:19:12.440 going to come together until violence solves the problem. Unfortunately, 356 00:19:13.000 --> 00:19:16.200 So the US wants regime change in Iran, and Iran 357 00:19:16.240 --> 00:19:19.240 wants us completely out of the Persian Gulf, and if 358 00:19:19.359 --> 00:19:21.440 neither one of those two things happened, then neither one 359 00:19:21.559 --> 00:19:22.839 is one now. 360 00:19:22.920 --> 00:19:27.400 With that being said, even if America, let's say Trump agrees, yeah, no, no, 361 00:19:27.519 --> 00:19:30.200 Lebanon was absolutely a part of the deal. America is 362 00:19:30.240 --> 00:19:32.519 not bombing Lebanon right now, We're not sending troops in. 363 00:19:32.599 --> 00:19:33.319 That's Israel. 364 00:19:33.680 --> 00:19:38.839 So does Israel going back on the agreement negate America's 365 00:19:38.839 --> 00:19:41.200 agreement with Iran? Is it a pretty much all bets 366 00:19:41.200 --> 00:19:42.880 are all kind of situation or. 367 00:19:44.880 --> 00:19:47.680 Right? I think Israel wasn't really a party to the agreement, 368 00:19:47.720 --> 00:19:50.200 but Donald Trump was really impatient and just wanted it 369 00:19:50.240 --> 00:19:52.759 to be over with. I think Trump thinks he can 370 00:19:53.519 --> 00:19:58.319 meander Israel out of keeping engaged with Lebanon. But I 371 00:19:58.359 --> 00:20:01.960 think for Israel, Lebanon really is the primary front. Iran 372 00:20:02.079 --> 00:20:06.200 is a distraction for everyone else from their perspective. Israel's 373 00:20:06.240 --> 00:20:08.920 not going to conquer Iran, It's not going to conquer Jordan, 374 00:20:09.000 --> 00:20:10.920 It's not going to conquer any of its other neighbors 375 00:20:11.319 --> 00:20:14.720 except Leon. It's one of the Litani River for decades, 376 00:20:15.200 --> 00:20:17.799 and that's significantly north, like I don't know, forty miles 377 00:20:17.799 --> 00:20:20.480 north of where their border currently is. Yeah, I think 378 00:20:20.519 --> 00:20:21.759 they can get it their moment. 379 00:20:22.480 --> 00:20:24.359 I remember to them saying that they wanted a big 380 00:20:24.400 --> 00:20:27.599 buffer zone and it was like, okay, I could how 381 00:20:27.640 --> 00:20:28.559 big of a buffer zone? 382 00:20:28.599 --> 00:20:29.440 Oh not much? 383 00:20:29.640 --> 00:20:32.960 Forty miles and it's like, that's that is quite a 384 00:20:32.960 --> 00:20:33.680 buffer zone. 385 00:20:33.880 --> 00:20:37.960 And I remember them talking about that. Shit was it. 386 00:20:37.960 --> 00:20:39.960 It was after the whole Goal In Heights and Gaza 387 00:20:40.000 --> 00:20:42.519 Strip situation, if I'm not mistaken, they were trying to 388 00:20:42.519 --> 00:20:45.920 make a buffer zone into They were damn near Damascus. 389 00:20:46.480 --> 00:20:48.279 It was crazy what they were trying to push for. 390 00:20:50.240 --> 00:20:53.000 Yeah, Damascus is pretty close to Israel in terms of 391 00:20:53.039 --> 00:20:56.839 the map of Syria too, But they took a lot 392 00:20:57.160 --> 00:21:00.680 in the December of twenty twenty five, No, I'm twenty 393 00:21:00.720 --> 00:21:03.359 twenty four, right after the collapse of the Asade regime, 394 00:21:05.119 --> 00:21:08.359 and they said, well, won't withdraw eventually, but nobody believed 395 00:21:08.359 --> 00:21:09.599 it and they're not going to. 396 00:21:10.480 --> 00:21:11.039 No, they're not. 397 00:21:11.680 --> 00:21:13.799 So those are the only places they can expand, though 398 00:21:14.400 --> 00:21:17.799 I personally think they have some ambitions for the east 399 00:21:17.880 --> 00:21:20.599 bank of the Jordan River, but that will be like 400 00:21:20.720 --> 00:21:21.880 one hundred years from now. 401 00:21:22.839 --> 00:21:26.599