Speaker 1: Good evening, everybody, and welcome to another edition of The
Speaker 1: Cajun Knight Live. I am your host, the Cajun Knight,
Speaker 1: Jacob Mook, and a lot of things that have been
Speaker 1: going on here recently. Right now, we have currently a
Speaker 1: tentative ceasefire going on between the United States, Israel, and
Speaker 1: Iranian forces, and I started hearing reports of the ceasefire
Speaker 1: being broken. And it depends, as always when it comes
Speaker 1: to a conflict like this, it depends on where you
Speaker 1: were getting that information from. The Jerusalem Post was clearly
Speaker 1: posting that Iran had broken the ceasefire, and then the
Speaker 1: Iranians were saying that clearly America had sent another bombing
Speaker 1: run after the ceasefire was called. Come to find out,
Speaker 1: neither of those are accurate. The UAE sent a jet
Speaker 1: to drop a bomb on a power plant. Apparently no
Speaker 1: one informed the Immirate or the Amadis.
Speaker 2: How are the fucking shit?
Speaker 1: Nobody informed them that a ceasefire had just started and
Speaker 1: they already had a jet inbound.
Speaker 2: But we'll get to all of it. We'll get to
Speaker 2: all of it.
Speaker 1: And I am curious what everybody's thoughts are as far
Speaker 1: as if this ceasefire is going to actually go down, right,
Speaker 1: will cooler heads prevail? I haven't heard anything as far
Speaker 1: as uh, you know, there was a ten point plan
Speaker 1: that was proposed, and then the other side proposed their
Speaker 1: own ten point plan, neither of which is something that
Speaker 1: either side is really willing to go down on. So
Speaker 1: I don't I don't know, I don't know. There's a
Speaker 1: lot of up in the air conversations as of this moment.
Speaker 1: But that's what we're here to do.
Speaker 2: To talk about it all.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go ahead and share the screen and
Speaker 1: let's get started on this journey that we happen to
Speaker 1: find ourselves in. So right off the rip, what is
Speaker 1: going on the screen? Why is that still there?
Speaker 2: There? We go? All right, so live updates Iran's war.
Speaker 1: Ceasefire begins, though some new attacks hit the Gulf Trumpet,
Speaker 1: Yaho say Lebanon not included in the ceasefire. Now, this
Speaker 1: is going to be a source of contention, and I
Speaker 1: understand that, Uh, the ceasefire was between it wasn't for
Speaker 1: the entirety of the Middle East. That was just between
Speaker 1: the three key players. However, the UAE still sent a jet.
Speaker 1: They were allegedly not a part of the ceasefire, So
Speaker 1: why are they a part of it? And then where
Speaker 1: do we draw the line. Is Lebanon a part of
Speaker 1: the ceasefire deal or not? Let's read about it here.
Speaker 1: So this is from NBC. I understand you got to
Speaker 1: question the source. I get that, but let's read about it.
Speaker 2: So what to know.
Speaker 1: There's a fragile ceasefire that has begun. The United States
Speaker 1: and Iran agreed to a two week ceasefire hours before
Speaker 1: President Trump's deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of
Speaker 1: Horn moves or see quote a whole civilization die, which
Speaker 1: is very strong wording. I don't believe that Trump was
Speaker 1: serious about that, But even if you're not, that that's
Speaker 1: genocidal conversation and that is not what the leader of
Speaker 1: the free world should be speaking like. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: call a spade a spade here. But anyway, moving on
Speaker 1: Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Lebanon came under intense attacks after
Speaker 1: Israel said it was not covered by the agreement, contradicting
Speaker 1: mediator Pakistan. Lebanon's health ministry said hundreds had been killed
Speaker 1: or wounded in the new round of strikes now the
Speaker 1: Horror Moves uncertainty. An Iranian news agency reported that oil
Speaker 1: traffic through the Strait of Horror Moves was halted again
Speaker 1: hours after the first tankers were allowed to pass, sighting
Speaker 1: Israel's Lebanon strikes. Trump earlier said that the US will
Speaker 1: be helping with the traffic build up in the street.
Speaker 2: I'll bet they will.
Speaker 1: The Iranian attacks, Persian Gulf State's ball Rain, the United
Speaker 1: Arab Immirates, and Kuwait reported new Iranian attacks this morning
Speaker 1: after blasts were reported at oil sites in Iran.
Speaker 2: So it's not just the.
Speaker 1: UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain are now in the mix. As
Speaker 1: far as like, wait, there's a ceasefire, why is there's
Speaker 1: still any type of ordnance being dropped?
Speaker 2: And if that's true?
Speaker 1: And I don't know if Lebanon was a part of
Speaker 1: the deal through Pakistan, I honestly never heard that. I'm
Speaker 1: not the most well read on the situation, but I
Speaker 1: hadn't heard that, So maybe there's something there.
Speaker 2: I don't know. We'll read more. Market surge.
Speaker 1: The price of oil dropped and stock prices soared this
Speaker 1: morning in response to the ceasefire. Despite uncertainty over the
Speaker 1: deal and the potential for long term economic scars from
Speaker 1: the five weeks of war. So it's next. Trump said
Speaker 1: Iran's ten point peace proposal was a workable basis on
Speaker 1: which to negotiate a fuller deal, but Pakistan, saying talks
Speaker 1: would begin Friday. Now, let's talk about the death toll.
Speaker 1: Over fifteen hundred people have been killed in Lebanon and
Speaker 1: twenty three have died in Israel. Iranian officials have not
Speaker 1: released recent death tolls, but the US based rights group
Speaker 1: h R A and A put the total killed at
Speaker 1: almost thirty four hundred, including more than sixteen hundred civilians.
Speaker 1: I feel like that's probably accurate. I'm sure it's not
Speaker 1: exact number. There's gonna be a little bit of leeway
Speaker 1: on that one, but I feel like that's probably more
Speaker 1: accurate than not. I don't think that we've, you know,
Speaker 1: the United States has killed like twenty thousand Iranians. I
Speaker 1: don't think it's it hadn't been a big number like that,
Speaker 1: but yeah, thirty four hundred, give or take, probably closer
Speaker 1: to like four thousand. I could see sixteen hundred civilians. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's probably accurate. Thirteen US service members have been killed
Speaker 1: and two more died of non combat causes. That's just
Speaker 1: wrong place, wrong time, honestly, insights and analysis get exclusive
Speaker 1: up about okay, moving on, Moving on, so Iran ports
Speaker 1: authorities announced alternate shipping routes in the Straight of Horm
Speaker 1: Moves to avoid naval mindes.
Speaker 2: So I did a little more digging into this.
Speaker 1: So the Straight of Horror Moves is not a wide
Speaker 1: gap into like forty nautical miles or forty two.
Speaker 2: It's something like that. It's not a big stretch of water.
Speaker 1: And then when you look at the actual like the
Speaker 1: sand banks underneath.
Speaker 2: There's realistically only like a four mile.
Speaker 1: I don't want to say gap, but a four mile
Speaker 1: straight in the very dead center of it where the
Speaker 1: big ships make their traffic. And that's why they were
Speaker 1: able to shut it down. They just had to mine
Speaker 1: the very center because no ships are going on to
Speaker 1: the outside as for fear of hitting something. So now
Speaker 1: Auran is saying that there is actually an alternative shipping
Speaker 1: route despite the mines, so let's talk about it here.
Speaker 1: So ships have been directed to use alternative shipping routes
Speaker 1: in the Straight of Horror Moves to avoid potential naval
Speaker 1: mines in the main traffic zone of the trade route,
Speaker 1: the Iranian Ports and Maritime organizations announced today. According to
Speaker 1: SNN news agency, the Port organization advised that due to
Speaker 1: the wartime situation, vessels should coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary
Speaker 1: Guard Corps Navy and use the outline detours. The statement
Speaker 1: said it included recommendations for both an inbound and outbound route.
Speaker 1: Uncertainty has surrounded the critical waterways status since the US
Speaker 1: and Iran agreed to a two weeks seast fire yesterday
Speaker 1: following Trump's demand that the straight be reopened. Oil traffic
Speaker 1: through the strait was halted again today, just hours after
Speaker 1: the first vessels were allowed to pass through, because of
Speaker 1: Israel strikes and Lebanon. And this is from an Iranian
Speaker 1: news agency, at least that's what they said. Vance told
Speaker 1: reporters today that if Iran does not followed through with
Speaker 1: the opening of the strait, the ceasefire will end, but
Speaker 1: he did not provide details of the expected timeline to
Speaker 1: open the strait. Both sides are just trying to leave
Speaker 1: this thing open ended, to give themselves some sort of
Speaker 1: like a what's the word, like a legal Basically, they're
Speaker 1: trying to make it to where well, we didn't say that,
Speaker 1: they're trying to give it like some sort of illegal
Speaker 1: loophole in their wording, which as politic in one zero one.
Speaker 1: To be honest with you now, Root says that Trump
Speaker 1: is disappointed with NATO's allies and he can see his point.
Speaker 1: NATO Secretary General Mark Root said that Trump is clearly
Speaker 1: disappointed with many NATO allies and that he can see
Speaker 1: his point. Shortly after he left a closed door meeting
Speaker 1: with Trump this evening. Let me be absolutely clear, he
Speaker 1: is clearly disappointed and with how and with many NATO allies,
Speaker 1: and I could see his point.
Speaker 2: God, they just.
Speaker 1: Repeated that for three times, back to back. We got
Speaker 1: the fucking message. Dog Rut added that he believed that
Speaker 1: the large majority of European nations were helpful to the
Speaker 1: US during the war in Iran with basing, with logistics,
Speaker 1: with overflights. He said there was widespread support for Trump's
Speaker 1: actions in the war as degrading the nuclear and the
Speaker 1: inter ballistic missile capacity of the Iran from Iran rather
Speaker 1: was really crucial fair enough. Root could not answer whether
Speaker 1: the straight of Horn moves has been opened in the
Speaker 1: wake of Trump's demands and that the critical trade route
Speaker 1: was cleared. I don't have the intelligence now at my
Speaker 1: fingertips to give you that answer, but I think over
Speaker 1: the next couple of days we will know more. Root said, Also, God,
Speaker 1: I wish I would have brought this up, and I
Speaker 1: still might search for it.
Speaker 2: The Chairman of the Joint chiefs this thing.
Speaker 1: He's like a four star naval general, I'm sorry, air
Speaker 1: Force air Force general. He had talked about how they,
Speaker 1: by their estimations, they had drank like three million, four
Speaker 1: hundred thousand gallons of coffee, hundreds of thousands of energy drinks,
Speaker 1: and an absurd amount of nicotine. Board doing okay, And
Speaker 1: I'm just like, ah, this guy gets it. This guy
Speaker 1: gets it. What makes it war happen is caffeine and nicotine, dude.
Speaker 1: But it was weird because he was so dry with it.
Speaker 1: It looked like he was reading like an actual statistic,
Speaker 1: even though he was clearly being funny. But yeah, anyone, anyone,
Speaker 1: I might find that here in a minute to play.
Speaker 1: It was actually pretty good. Holy sites in Jerusalem to
Speaker 1: reopen this week. Jerusalem police say sorry, tomorrow, Jerusalem's holy
Speaker 1: sites will reopen to visitors and worshippers with heightened security
Speaker 1: throughout the district Jerus When the police said in a
Speaker 1: statement visitors should plan for long lines and heavy traffic
Speaker 1: as local police deploy hundreds of officers and volunteers along
Speaker 1: major routes in the Old City and near holy sites.
Speaker 1: The public is urged to arrive with patients and to
Speaker 1: be prepared to follow police instructions. Yeah, I'll bet so, brother.
Speaker 1: Now let's get to this. At least two hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty four killed at least eleven hundred and sixty five
Speaker 1: injured in Israeli attack on Lebanon. This is from Lebanon
Speaker 1: civil events, that is what they said. They include ninety
Speaker 1: two civilian dead in Bea Route and sixty one in
Speaker 1: the capitol southern suburbs. More than nine hundred and forty
Speaker 1: people were injured in those areas today, the vast majority
Speaker 1: seven hundred and forty two in Beirut.
Speaker 2: Lebanese officials said this on Facebook. Civil defense teams.
Speaker 1: Have conducted emergency response operations, including providing medical assistance, evacuating
Speaker 1: the injured, and recovering the dead. According to the Post,
Speaker 1: specialized teams are actively conducting search and rescue operations, and
Speaker 1: we're moving debris at multiple sites, which may result in
Speaker 1: an increased toll as field operations progress. You know, I
Speaker 1: gotta say, we really have not heard much about the
Speaker 1: situation in Lebanon, and I'm of the belief that that's
Speaker 1: by design. Right, the mainstream media, they may have a
Speaker 1: small little amens, if you will, they're not talking about it, like, oh,
Speaker 1: by the way, I know this whole thing's going on
Speaker 1: with Iran, but did y'all know that Israel just invaded Lebanon?
Speaker 1: Like that's just not a thing that I hear a
Speaker 1: lot of people talking about for some reason, and it's
Speaker 1: mind blowing. But anyway, all right, that was pretty much
Speaker 1: all I wanted to read off of this article. Let's
Speaker 1: hear this. So this is a Middle East expert providing
Speaker 1: insight on the US Aoran ceasefire.
Speaker 3: I'm back today is reel conducted strikes on Lebanon, which
Speaker 3: are some of the first tests of the temporary ceasefire
Speaker 3: between the US and Iran. Both President Trump and Israeli
Speaker 3: leaders are saying the deal did not include Lebanon, but
Speaker 3: Irani and state media is reporting that oil traffic through
Speaker 3: the Strait of Hormuz was stopped again. Joining us now
Speaker 3: to share some insight about these developments is doctor Brent Sassly.
Speaker 3: He is the chair of the political science department at
Speaker 3: the University of Texas at Arlington and an expert on
Speaker 3: Middle Eastern politics. Brent, welcome to our show, and thanks
Speaker 3: for talking to us today.
Speaker 4: Thanks for having me.
Speaker 3: This is a very ever changing situation, so of course
Speaker 3: we're going to couch that with anything that we talk
Speaker 3: about here. But despite this ceasefire taking effect, there are
Speaker 3: still attacks happening today throughout that region. So how do
Speaker 3: you think that affects this deal really holding?
Speaker 4: Well, it makes it more complex. I think we first
Speaker 4: have to recognize that any effort, any partially successful effort,
Speaker 4: even at a ceasefire, that would stop the fighting, is
Speaker 4: a good thing. Anything that can stop the destruction and
Speaker 4: the loss of lives is a good thing. The problem
Speaker 4: is in this case that there are multiple, several moving
Speaker 4: parts and they are all connected. For example, has been
Speaker 4: is intimately tied to Iran, and so Israel sees not
Speaker 4: just Iran as a threat, but Hesbela, and it sees
Speaker 4: Iran as Hesbela is because it is Hesbela's main backer
Speaker 4: it can't really separate the two, and so even though
Speaker 4: there's a ceasefire with Iran, at least with the United States,
Speaker 4: it has no intention of stopping the firing and the
Speaker 4: attacking on Hesbela in Lebanon.
Speaker 3: Something else that's really stuck out to me. As these
Speaker 3: developments have so quickly changed over the past few days,
Speaker 3: Iran seems to be emerging from the war with much
Speaker 3: more control over that vile strait of horror moves that
Speaker 3: we've talked so much about. Can you talk about how
Speaker 3: accurate that is and what do you think it means
Speaker 3: for the future.
Speaker 4: It's fairly accurate. Iran's has installations all along the coast
Speaker 4: that is along that channel, and it has the capability
Speaker 4: to warn ships and crafts that are going through that
Speaker 4: if they continue then they will be fired on, which
Speaker 4: has in fact happened. And so it is in enormous control,
Speaker 4: which is why one of Trump. President Trump's points has
Speaker 4: been that Iran has to give up that control, or
Speaker 4: at least has to create conditions so that it can't
Speaker 4: do something like that. Again, that's highly unlikely. Iran will
Speaker 4: not give it up, especially now that it knows it
Speaker 4: is some form of leverage that it has on the
Speaker 4: United States and on the world more broadly. So I
Speaker 4: suspect we probably won't see too much effort on that
Speaker 4: particular issue, but of course the conversations will continue.
Speaker 3: Yes, of course, Tuesday Nights deal caused a drop in
Speaker 3: fuel prices here in the US, as well as some
Speaker 3: of the stock futures going up as well. But what
Speaker 3: hope should we have that gas prices here in the
Speaker 3: US will in turn do the same thing.
Speaker 4: We should have some hope. These things typically are a
Speaker 4: lag So just because the price of oil went down
Speaker 4: doesn't mean that we're going to immediately see a major
Speaker 4: drop in oil prices. At the gas tank. There are
Speaker 4: a number of facilities where damaged oil and natural gas.
Speaker 4: It's going to take time to get those back up
Speaker 4: and running and to get the fossil fuels back into
Speaker 4: the pipeline there. So, if there is no resumption of
Speaker 4: the violence between the United States and Iran, we will
Speaker 4: still have to wait some time before we can see
Speaker 4: a change in our pockets. But any any progress, again,
Speaker 4: I said, is welcome.
Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, So.
Speaker 1: I don't know how to feel about the ceasefire. I
Speaker 1: am happy that a ceasefire was at least agreed upon tentatively.
Speaker 2: That's a positive for everybody. I'm not negating that.
Speaker 1: I don't know a if it'll hold b because that's
Speaker 1: the other thing too. We've talked about this for either
Speaker 1: side to quote unquote win, What does winning look like?
Speaker 1: That's that's a question that I feel like a lot
Speaker 1: of military campaigns over the past thirty years have had
Speaker 1: to really question once they got started. Everybody is all
Speaker 1: too excited to get up in arms and start shooting
Speaker 1: and start bombing all the things. Yeah, military, sure, complex
Speaker 1: gonna eat. But when it comes time for a draw down,
Speaker 1: a egress out of the area, anything like this, how
Speaker 1: do how do either side of a conflict like this
Speaker 1: quantify what a victory looks like? Is a victory just
Speaker 1: simply not losing is a victory for America? We've said this, like,
Speaker 1: is regime change a win? Is that what we will
Speaker 1: quantify as the victory that we set out for?
Speaker 2: Okay?
Speaker 1: Possibly, But if we put in a new regime and
Speaker 1: they're unwilling to deal, and they're unwilling to make some
Speaker 1: sort of a cut rate on oil or any of
Speaker 1: these things, we didn't win. That's not a victory right,
Speaker 1: long term yeah, and the short term just for the
Speaker 1: headlines and the you know, news articles and all these things.
Speaker 1: Sure it's a win, but is that actually the victory
Speaker 1: we were set out to do?
Speaker 2: And then for Iran is a victory.
Speaker 1: Just survival, just the resistance of a regime change, and
Speaker 1: as long as the iotola remains in power? Do they
Speaker 1: take this as a win when they got massive chunks
Speaker 1: of their infrastructure bomb to shit and a rising death toll?
Speaker 1: How do they Is that what they classify as a
Speaker 1: victory in this case? And I understand that's way too
Speaker 1: philosophical and it goes into many levels and many nuances.
Speaker 1: But I don't think there's going to be a way
Speaker 1: to cleanly walk away from this, which is why it
Speaker 1: blew my mind that we actually the bombing last year,
Speaker 1: when we sent stealth bombers in and blew up their
Speaker 1: underground nuclear bunkers. Okay, I wasn't massively you know, cheering
Speaker 1: that on, but also wasn't like scoffing at it either.
Speaker 1: I understood. I understood why America and Israel would want
Speaker 1: to strike the nuclear infrastructure of Iran. Okay, I could
Speaker 1: least I could at least put the pieces together and
Speaker 1: make the picture. In my head, this is a lot
Speaker 1: more than that. And again, I'm in favor of the
Speaker 1: United States military, and I'm in favor of US flexing
Speaker 1: from time to time. But what kind of a real
Speaker 1: end goal were we aiming for here?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I know we're getting way off in the weeds too
Speaker 1: early on, and I apologize about that. Let's see, got
Speaker 1: some comments going on here? Oh Sam Sam has finally
Speaker 1: joined us. Good to see you, sir. I heard it
Speaker 1: all comes down to whether Lebanon has included Israel says no,
Speaker 1: Aron says yes.
Speaker 2: Most of it is too.
Speaker 1: Shit, Yeah, Tony, if you could look this up please,
Speaker 1: because I do not know if Lebanon was a part
Speaker 1: of the deal through Pakistan or not. Both sides just
Speaker 1: saying one thing or another. I haven't found any literature
Speaker 1: to say one way or another, to be honest with you.
Speaker 5: Well, what I remember reading is that the Pakistani guys,
Speaker 5: we're saying Lebanon was one of Iron's conditions and that
Speaker 5: the US agreed to it. The US is saying, no,
Speaker 5: we didn't agree to that party. I think both sides
Speaker 5: have such different standards of victory that we're just not
Speaker 5: going to come together until violence solves the problem. Unfortunately,
Speaker 5: So the US wants regime change in Iran, and Iran
Speaker 5: wants us completely out of the Persian Gulf, and if
Speaker 5: neither one of those two things happened, then neither one
Speaker 5: is one now.
Speaker 1: With that being said, even if America, let's say Trump agrees, yeah, no, no,
Speaker 1: Lebanon was absolutely a part of the deal. America is
Speaker 1: not bombing Lebanon right now, We're not sending troops in.
Speaker 2: That's Israel.
Speaker 1: So does Israel going back on the agreement negate America's
Speaker 1: agreement with Iran? Is it a pretty much all bets
Speaker 1: are all kind of situation or.
Speaker 5: Right? I think Israel wasn't really a party to the agreement,
Speaker 5: but Donald Trump was really impatient and just wanted it
Speaker 5: to be over with. I think Trump thinks he can
Speaker 5: meander Israel out of keeping engaged with Lebanon. But I
Speaker 5: think for Israel, Lebanon really is the primary front. Iran
Speaker 5: is a distraction for everyone else from their perspective. Israel's
Speaker 5: not going to conquer Iran, It's not going to conquer Jordan,
Speaker 5: It's not going to conquer any of its other neighbors
Speaker 5: except Leon. It's one of the Litani River for decades,
Speaker 5: and that's significantly north, like I don't know, forty miles
Speaker 5: north of where their border currently is. Yeah, I think
Speaker 5: they can get it their moment.
Speaker 1: I remember to them saying that they wanted a big
Speaker 1: buffer zone and it was like, okay, I could how
Speaker 1: big of a buffer zone?
Speaker 2: Oh not much?
Speaker 1: Forty miles and it's like, that's that is quite a
Speaker 1: buffer zone.
Speaker 2: And I remember them talking about that. Shit was it.
Speaker 1: It was after the whole Goal In Heights and Gaza
Speaker 1: Strip situation, if I'm not mistaken, they were trying to
Speaker 1: make a buffer zone into They were damn near Damascus.
Speaker 1: It was crazy what they were trying to push for.
Speaker 5: Yeah, Damascus is pretty close to Israel in terms of
Speaker 5: the map of Syria too, But they took a lot
Speaker 5: in the December of twenty twenty five, No, I'm twenty
Speaker 5: twenty four, right after the collapse of the Asade regime,
Speaker 5: and they said, well, won't withdraw eventually, but nobody believed
Speaker 5: it and they're not going to.
Speaker 1: No, they're not.
Speaker 5: So those are the only places they can expand, though
Speaker 5: I personally think they have some ambitions for the east
Speaker 5: bank of the Jordan River, but that will be like
Speaker 5: one hundred years from now.
Speaker 1: That's gonna be a tough sale. The Jordanians are not
Speaker 1: going to give up one inch. They have a working
Speaker 1: relationship with Israel. Okay, cool, they're not super fond of them,
Speaker 1: but they're willing to deal with them. Yo, if Israel
Speaker 1: starts trying to take in some Jordanian land, who Yeah,
Speaker 1: the king is gonna absolutely fry them alive. And I
Speaker 1: don't think there's anything that we could do to stop
Speaker 1: that either, because Jordan's a homey of ours as well,
Speaker 1: so that's God, it's messy.
Speaker 5: Well, I think Jordan's too weak too, and right now,
Speaker 5: out of political convenience, Israel's friends with them, so they're
Speaker 5: not going to push to the east. Yet they're still
Speaker 5: preoccupied with the West bank of the Jordan River. There's
Speaker 5: six million Palestinians living there now, and the East bank thing,
Speaker 5: it's more like one hundred years from now. Like I
Speaker 5: was saying, But if you look at the ancient maps
Speaker 5: of Israel, they believe that that the tribes of East
Speaker 5: Manassa and Gad and like another one. I can't remember
Speaker 5: how to pronounce all of them, but they believe they
Speaker 5: had stuff over there. Dude, I think some of them
Speaker 5: do want it back. From their perspective, I've seen years
Speaker 5: from now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I've seen one map where Israel is this massive
Speaker 1: chunk of land and everybody's like, that's what they mean
Speaker 1: from the river to the sea. But like, dude, that
Speaker 1: map was an accurate depiction of the land for one kingdom,
Speaker 1: like not even one dude's whole lifespan. Really, that was
Speaker 1: like the furthest extent they were ever able to call
Speaker 1: their own, and then they got pushed back to what
Speaker 1: we would call as far as just Judea goes.
Speaker 2: It's it's wild, It's so wild.
Speaker 1: But yeah, I and you said Jordan's kind of gonna
Speaker 1: weak military right now?
Speaker 2: Is that accurate?
Speaker 1: I haven't been keeping up with the Jordanian military. I
Speaker 1: thought they were at least adequate. I thought they were
Speaker 1: better than Iran.
Speaker 5: Well, I know they have some missiles and some F sixteens,
Speaker 5: and I think one of the princes is a pilot.
Speaker 5: And yeah, they're hash Mites and they're friendly with Israel.
Speaker 5: But as for the eventual boundaries, A lot of people
Speaker 5: believe that the two blue stripes on their flag represent
Speaker 5: the Nile to the Euphrates, which is like twenty times
Speaker 5: bigger than they are now. And that's what they believe.
Speaker 5: Yeahweh told Abraham, yeah, or lo Ohim as I think
Speaker 5: he might have been called in that point in the
Speaker 5: Old Testament because that was before Moses.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, yeah, yo. Jordan ranks seventy fourth on the list.
Speaker 2: My bad.
Speaker 1: No, they are nowhere near Iran nor Israel as far
Speaker 1: as military power goes. Okay, I was today years old
Speaker 1: when I learned that, because I always see that, I
Speaker 1: see one of the princes. I don't think it's the king,
Speaker 1: it's one of their princes who he's a pilot, and
Speaker 1: he always tries to like give that persona of like
Speaker 1: military strength in the area.
Speaker 2: Which cool.
Speaker 1: Fine, yeah, that's that's bad. They are low low on
Speaker 1: the totem pole. But okay, anyway, all right, so let's
Speaker 1: keep reading about this ceasefire. So this is from the
Speaker 1: Associated Press. Take that for what it is. We understand
Speaker 1: this is an extremely liberal leaning publication. But I also, again,
Speaker 1: I want to see this from all angles. I don't
Speaker 1: want to just look at it from my bias perspective.
Speaker 1: I want to see it from all angles, to see
Speaker 1: what they are saying and bring in what kind of
Speaker 1: truth they are with this article. So, how Trump went
Speaker 1: from threatening Iran's annihilation to agreeing to a two week
Speaker 1: ceasefire with Troan? Okay, President Trump or over the course
Speaker 1: of a single day, went from threatening Iran with annihilation
Speaker 1: to proclaiming that the battered Islamic Republic's leadership had presented
Speaker 1: a workable plan that led him to agree to a
Speaker 1: fourteen day ceasefire that he hopes will pave the way
Speaker 1: to end the nearly six week war.
Speaker 2: Which, h.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be best case scenario. Let's say this ceasefire
Speaker 1: continues and cooler heads prevail, it's gonna be eight weeks.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be two months best case scenario. But all right,
Speaker 1: I honestly don't even think it's gonna be wrapped up
Speaker 1: that quickly. I don't know. Let's see the dramatic shift
Speaker 1: in tenure tenor. The dramatic shift in tenor, Yeah, came
Speaker 1: as intermediaries led by Pakistan worked feverishly to head off
Speaker 1: a further escalation. Even China, Aron's biggest trading partner in
Speaker 1: America's most significant economic competitor quietly pulled strings to find
Speaker 1: a path towards the ceasefire, according to two officials briefed
Speaker 1: on the matter, who are not authorized to comment publicly
Speaker 1: and spoke on the condition of anonymity. Also, that makes
Speaker 1: sense the straight being shut down. Yeah, China's gotten a
Speaker 1: few oil tankers to go through. They're paying an exorbitant
Speaker 1: amount of money.
Speaker 2: To do so.
Speaker 1: The straight being shut down is bad for business for
Speaker 1: so many countries. I'll bet you China was absolutely in
Speaker 1: the mix of like, hey, it's all new, homie, I
Speaker 1: need you to just calm down a bit.
Speaker 2: We need this straight open, we need we need oil, bro.
Speaker 1: But anyway, the reason for doing so is that we
Speaker 1: have already met and exceeded all military objectives as a
Speaker 1: direct quote, by the way, and are very far along
Speaker 1: with definitive agreement concerning long term piece of Iran and
Speaker 1: peace in the Middle East. Trump said this on a
Speaker 1: social media post Tuesday announced in the temporary ceasefire. I
Speaker 1: got a few problems with some of the statements that
Speaker 1: Trump just said, have we met and exceeded all military objectives?
Speaker 1: Possibly there's a lot of there's a lot of Iranian
Speaker 1: leadership that was taken out. There's a lot of infrastructure
Speaker 1: that has been hit. There's a lot of military targets
Speaker 1: that were hit. Like I'm okay, let's just take that
Speaker 1: one at face value and say that possibly maybe they
Speaker 1: hit like ninety nine out of one hundred of the
Speaker 1: targets that they were aiming for. Okay, fine, and are
Speaker 1: far along with a definitive agreement concerning long term peace
Speaker 1: with Iran and peace in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: I don't believe that's accurate.
Speaker 1: I in no way, shape or form believed that anybody
Speaker 1: is very far along with a definitive agreement concerning long
Speaker 1: term peace with Iran. That I just don't see that happening.
Speaker 1: And then and peace in the Middle East, that's.
Speaker 2: You know, not to go that direction.
Speaker 1: But according to certain narratives from certain religious books, if
Speaker 1: and when there's actually truly peace in the Middle East,
Speaker 1: y'all need to start getting right with the creator. Because
Speaker 1: the time clock is ticking. I'll just leave it at
Speaker 1: that anyway. It came about ninety minutes before his deadline
Speaker 1: for Tehran to open critical straight of Horn Moose to
Speaker 1: see its power plants and other critical infrastructure obliterated. But
Speaker 1: even as the White House was celebrating the moment as
Speaker 1: a victory, the fragile ceasfire appeared in danger of falling
Speaker 1: apart as the US, Iran, and Israel offered differing statements
Speaker 1: on Wednesday on what was included in the deal less
Speaker 1: than twenty four hours after it was broken, and now
Speaker 1: we get to the situation.
Speaker 2: Iran insisted that the end to Israeli.
Speaker 1: War in Lebanon was part of the ceasefire agreement with
Speaker 1: the US, but Netanyahu and Trump said the truce did
Speaker 1: not cover Lebanon and the Israeli operations there continued.
Speaker 2: The US meanwhile demanded that.
Speaker 1: Iran make good on reopening the Straight after the Islamic
Speaker 1: Republic closed the waterway in response to Israel's intensifying attacks
Speaker 1: against Hesbala militant groups in Lebanon. Vice President Vance, who
Speaker 1: is set to lead a US delegation in Pakistan later
Speaker 1: this week for many mediated talks with Iran aimed at
Speaker 1: finding a permanent agreement to in the conflict, downplayed the setbacks,
Speaker 1: saying no ceasefire ever goes off without a little bit
Speaker 1: of choppiness, without a little bit of shoppiness, my boy, Okay, okay, JD.
Speaker 1: We're seeing evidence that things are going to be right
Speaker 1: in We are going in the right direction, but it's
Speaker 1: going to take a little time vance too, reporters. As
Speaker 1: he wrapped up to visit Hungary, Trump to hold talks
Speaker 1: with NATO's Secretary General. The President also met at the
Speaker 1: White House with NATO Secretary General Mark Root on Wednesday.
Speaker 1: Trump has been angry that NATO county member countries ignored
Speaker 1: his call to help reopen the vital waterways as gas
Speaker 1: prices soared during the war. As the Trump deadline for
Speaker 1: aaran to open the Straight near, democratic lawmakers decried Trump's
Speaker 1: threat to wipe away an entire civilization as a moral failure.
Speaker 1: Quote unquote, Pope Leo Oh American Pope Oh Shy Rack
Speaker 1: himself warned that the strikes against civilian infrastructure would violate
Speaker 1: air national law and said Republican President's comments were truly unacceptable. Again,
Speaker 1: not to just go after the Holy Father here blessings
Speaker 1: beyond his name and all the things. But no, attacking
Speaker 1: critical infrastructure is not international law breaking. If if that
Speaker 1: infrastructure also feeds military assets, I should give that distinction
Speaker 1: just so clear.
Speaker 2: In the end, Trump may have backed down.
Speaker 1: Because of a simple truth that escalation could risk involving
Speaker 1: the United States in the sort of forever war that
Speaker 1: had beviled his predecessors in the White House, and that
Speaker 1: he had vowed he would keep the US out of
Speaker 1: if voters elected him in. Yeah, I'm really hoping, y'all.
Speaker 1: I I don't believe as of this moment that this
Speaker 1: is going to become a forever war. However, I would
Speaker 1: be lying if I said that I could not see
Speaker 1: the writing on the walls of how it could get
Speaker 1: there with a few strategic things happening within the two
Speaker 1: months before.
Speaker 2: I keep reading Sam, whatich you got?
Speaker 6: So our pope rather than not our pope but depope.
Speaker 6: I thought everybody from Shabak supposed to be like, you
Speaker 6: know what? Fuck it? As gated on this dude, is
Speaker 6: the Pope? Does he not remember what happened last time
Speaker 6: when the Islamics have the Islamic calife has tried to
Speaker 6: take over the fucking world. Hey dog, I'm not saying
Speaker 6: what you should do, but I personally think it's time
Speaker 6: to dust vault this shit.
Speaker 1: So I think I think that the Pope might possibly
Speaker 1: have a little a little angst towards Israel after they
Speaker 1: bombed a Catholic church in Gaza last year and killed
Speaker 1: a priest. I'm just saying I don't know that for
Speaker 1: a fact, but I am of the belief right now
Speaker 1: the Pope Leo may not be the friendliest to Israel
Speaker 1: or anything that they're doing.
Speaker 2: I could be wrong.
Speaker 1: I'm not saying that he's more friendly to Muslims. But
Speaker 1: the Muslims didn't bomb a Catholic church.
Speaker 2: Well, they have.
Speaker 6: They have according to the s law, and according to
Speaker 6: the book, they are forever in a holy war until
Speaker 6: fucking Shariah rules over the whole world. So that out
Speaker 6: there says, hey, dog, they're gonna try to kill us,
Speaker 6: we gotta kill them.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 6: I'm not trying to sound like a warhawk or anything.
Speaker 6: I'm just saying, I see the writing on the wall.
Speaker 6: They want to kill us. We should kill them. Because
Speaker 6: there is no co piece. There will never be co existence.
Speaker 6: The Muslims hate the Jews because of Father Abraham, fucking
Speaker 6: Sarah and the Ishmael and Isaac getting fucked over.
Speaker 1: Dude, a lot of people hate the Jews these days,
Speaker 1: regardless of religious background.
Speaker 2: That's like, that is the thing to do.
Speaker 1: Apparently, Raven Lee and I are leaving money on the
Speaker 1: table by not like leaning into it and jumping on
Speaker 1: the fuck Israel bandwagon because apparently that's just that's what's
Speaker 1: hot right now. It's it's wild to me those.
Speaker 6: But curses upon those who who lay curses upon Israel.
Speaker 1: Yes, but that's also from the Old Testament, and we
Speaker 1: don't live under that covenant.
Speaker 2: Now.
Speaker 1: There is a section in the Book of Hebrews in
Speaker 1: the New Testament also where it talks about, uh, the
Speaker 1: nation of Israel proper. This is where a lot of
Speaker 1: the Christians have disagreements on this. Do we think there
Speaker 1: we are talking about the new Israel i e. The
Speaker 1: New Church, i e. All of those that are inheritors
Speaker 1: of God's promise? Or do we think that we mean
Speaker 1: Israel proper? It's very similar to en go ahead.
Speaker 6: Personally, I say we should go back to best, bring
Speaker 6: back to leper king two point zero. Have the Kingdom
Speaker 6: of Jerusalem.
Speaker 1: Bring back Baldwin the second ri ip I want to
Speaker 1: say ball in the second someone that had leprosy.
Speaker 6: Like the.
Speaker 2: Fourth Yeah, it was hold on, hold on now, I
Speaker 2: got me.
Speaker 6: But I'll spat that guy even though his skin was
Speaker 6: falling the fuck off ball in.
Speaker 2: The fourth I was wrong. Good on you, Tony anyway.
Speaker 1: But okay, So so with that being said, though, right,
Speaker 1: how can I put this?
Speaker 2: I'm it's the same conversation.
Speaker 1: For when Jesus looked at the temple and said, surely,
Speaker 1: I say to you that all these will be brought
Speaker 1: down brick by brick. There are those who believed that
Speaker 1: he was talking about the nation of Israel will be
Speaker 1: disbanded and thrown to the winds. And there are those
Speaker 1: that would say he was literally pointing at the temple
Speaker 1: and it fell a few years after he died and
Speaker 1: rose again. So whenever Jesus says about Israel, does he
Speaker 1: mean the new Israel, the inheritors therefore talking Jews and Christians,
Speaker 1: or did he mean the actual land of Israel.
Speaker 6: I understand that, But I'm also going to say that
Speaker 6: there's all that. When Jesus said that, I actually tell
Speaker 6: you that this temple shall be destroyed and riz up
Speaker 6: in three days, he was talking about his body. He
Speaker 6: wasn't talking about the actual puick and mortar temple, So
Speaker 6: don't misglass over that fact either.
Speaker 2: So that was at a different point. But yes, that
Speaker 2: is what he was talking about.
Speaker 1: But he was talking about how the temple will be rebuilt, right,
Speaker 1: and that was brought up in the Book of Revelation.
Speaker 2: And that's another thing.
Speaker 1: When they're talking about how the temple will be rebuilt
Speaker 1: before the end times, a lot of people, a lot
Speaker 1: of Eschatologists will say that they don't mean the actual
Speaker 1: Temple of Solomon in Jerusalem. They believe that the temple
Speaker 1: would be like the body of God today, I e.
Speaker 2: His church, I e us I am.
Speaker 1: I am of the opinion that the actual brick and
Speaker 1: mortar building will have to be rebuilt. I understand there's
Speaker 1: people that disagree with me on that fact, and it's
Speaker 1: one of these it's like, it's not a salvation issue.
Speaker 1: It's not something I want to like fight over, but
Speaker 1: I do enjoy a healthy scholarly debate on the subject.
Speaker 1: But my point is my point is when the Bible
Speaker 1: talks about Israel, and like you're saying, curse would be
Speaker 1: those that curse against Israel, I can be pro Israel
Speaker 1: and hate net and Yahoo at the same time.
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, no doubt. I mean you can't trust him.
Speaker 6: Like the dude looks like he'd scame me out of
Speaker 6: your last shekel just so he doesn't have to pay
Speaker 6: this fucking camel. But with that being said, you can't
Speaker 6: trust any of them, no offense. What I love you, you
Speaker 6: fucking vampire. But no. But they like you, just can't
Speaker 6: trust that the people in the desert, that they'll try
Speaker 6: to figure out a way to fuck you over every time.
Speaker 1: It's like in Star Wars, dude, the sad people will
Speaker 1: always find a way to be sisty.
Speaker 6: No, no, dude, right, I'm It's funny bring up as
Speaker 6: the Tuscan Raiders are based off of Islam, and do
Speaker 6: you remember Wato Anakin slave master, the the little fucking
Speaker 6: fly guy. Dude.
Speaker 2: Uh, if you look up Watto.
Speaker 6: W a t t o Oh yeah, character of the
Speaker 6: Jewish study. Yeah that that and he's actually wearing a
Speaker 6: black hat. He's Star Wars version of the Jews. And
Speaker 6: funny enough, both Anakin and Obi wan uh fuck up
Speaker 6: the Tuscan Riders to the point they actually thought both
Speaker 6: of them were just different version, like different halves of
Speaker 6: the same sand God and everything. It's fucking awesome. I
Speaker 6: love Star Wars.
Speaker 1: I honestly I've never seen an entire movie start to finish.
Speaker 1: I can't get through it. It's so boring to me.
Speaker 2: But watch it.
Speaker 6: We only watched episode one through six. Everything that pass
Speaker 6: that is haresy.
Speaker 2: We don't talk of it again. Dope.
Speaker 1: I did watch the Mandalorian series. I thought that was cool. Heresy.
Speaker 6: Yes, Disney, everything Disney touched, they fuck up and destroy
Speaker 6: Look what they've done. Look what they did to the
Speaker 6: story of Mulan and everything, like the live action completely
Speaker 6: destroyed it. And I've read the actual legend of Mulan.
Speaker 6: It's pretty dope. But they didn't have to desecrate my
Speaker 6: boy Moostion. Goddamn it.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't deny that Disney has made it a
Speaker 1: whole business model to ruin a really good product, just
Speaker 1: absolutely destroy it and then send it out and the
Speaker 1: people still eat it up.
Speaker 5: Though.
Speaker 2: That's what kills me.
Speaker 1: No matter what they do, they're making money regardless of
Speaker 1: whether it's a good product or not. It's mind blowing.
Speaker 1: But I also blame Disney adults for that. I absolutely
Speaker 1: blame Disney adults, which are Oh, it's a whole different
Speaker 1: breed of human being that needs therapy. But anyway, back
Speaker 1: to the conversation we're having here, all right, Tony.
Speaker 2: I see you.
Speaker 1: I know, if you wanted to weigh in on any
Speaker 1: of the points that were brought up.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I just wanted to say, I think the Pope
Speaker 5: and the papacy have been piece necks for a couple
Speaker 5: hundred years. I think they might have taken positions in
Speaker 5: the Napoleonic Wars, but ever since then, in the World
Speaker 5: wars and everything since then, they've just been saying, everybody
Speaker 5: negotiate more, everyone sit down and talk, and don't go
Speaker 5: to war. That's just their default position all the time.
Speaker 5: It's not really special this time in my opinion.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's also a pretty good spot for
Speaker 1: them to be in.
Speaker 6: You know.
Speaker 1: I regardless of whether I agree or disagree with the
Speaker 1: points that the Pope would be making as far as
Speaker 1: politics are concerned, I don't want him to be a
Speaker 1: political figure. I would much rather him be a spiritual leader,
Speaker 1: which is what he's called to do. So, yeah, they
Speaker 1: don't take I wouldn't say neutrality, but as close to
Speaker 1: neutrality as the possibly can be for sure. Also just
Speaker 1: saw that the Pope of the Roman Catholic Church, and
Speaker 1: I don't know what the title is, but essentially the
Speaker 1: Pope of the Eastern Orthodoxy what do they call him
Speaker 1: bishop or something, whatever their top dog is, they went
Speaker 1: and did his thing where they were doing the nice
Speaker 1: and Creed. And apparently there's this big disagreement between the
Speaker 1: East and West as far as the Roman Catholic versus
Speaker 1: the Eastern orthodox is concerned about one of the lines
Speaker 1: of the Nicean Creed. The Roman Catholic Church has always
Speaker 1: been very staunch about away certain things are worded.
Speaker 2: The current pope just changed it and made it to.
Speaker 1: Where the way the Eastern Orthodoxy says it is also
Speaker 1: good and blessed in all the things. So he seems
Speaker 1: to be, at least on the onset to be trying
Speaker 1: to extend all the branches where he can. And I
Speaker 1: could respect that, you know, anyway, tell about these things,
Speaker 1: controlling the straight would have long.
Speaker 2: It would be long and costly. Okay.
Speaker 1: So, as Trump boasted about US and Israeli military success
Speaker 1: over the past six weeks, he appeared to be working
Speaker 1: from a premise that he could bomb Iran into capitulation.
Speaker 2: I truly believe that's accurate.
Speaker 1: I think that he was under the assumption that if
Speaker 1: you go in kill all the top dudes and bomb
Speaker 1: the fuck out of them for two weeks. That Iran
Speaker 1: will just be ready to do whatever you want, and
Speaker 1: the people will rise up and.
Speaker 5: All of this.
Speaker 1: I it's a great thought, it's a great dream. That
Speaker 1: is not exactly how this one's gonna shake out, but anyway,
Speaker 1: continuing startled with the killing of the Ayatola. In the
Speaker 1: opening Salvos, he seemed to discount that the Iranian leadership
Speaker 1: could opt for.
Speaker 2: A long and bloody war.
Speaker 1: The Islamic Republic for the past forty seven years has
Speaker 1: shown it is willing to dig in even when it
Speaker 1: appears to America to be working against its own self interests. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: absolutely suffer for their common goal.
Speaker 2: That is a fact.
Speaker 1: The clerical leadership hailed American hostages for four hundred and
Speaker 1: forty four days from late nineteen seventy nine to early
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty one, at the cost of the country's international standing. Yeah,
Speaker 1: let's not negate that that whole thing that happened whenever
Speaker 1: the Republic took over and all the things they just took.
Speaker 1: Those hostages for over a year. Not a good way
Speaker 1: to get the world on the new Iatola side and
Speaker 1: all that.
Speaker 2: But okay, The Mulas allowed.
Speaker 1: The Iran Iraq war to go on for years, leaving
Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands dead. Iran stood by Hamas after the
Speaker 1: October seventh attack that ultimately defamed the Iran backed group
Speaker 1: in Gaza as well as Hesboalah in Lebanon, and created
Speaker 1: the conditions that led to the collapse of Bashar al
Speaker 1: Asad's government in Syria and authoritarian rule supported by Tehran
Speaker 1: and Russia. Just to be clear, Iran's leadership excluded confidence
Speaker 1: that it could bog down the world's superpower in a
Speaker 1: costly and extended conflict, even if it might not defeat
Speaker 1: the US military. Defense analysis largely agreed that the US
Speaker 1: military could quickly take control of the narrow Persian Gulf
Speaker 1: waterway between Iran and Omar, through which roughly twenty percent
Speaker 1: of the world's oil flows on any given day, but
Speaker 1: maintaining security over the strait would require a high risk,
Speaker 1: resource intensive operation that could be a year's long American commitment.
Speaker 1: Ben Connible, executive director of the nonprofit Battle Research Group,
Speaker 1: said securing the strait would require the US military to
Speaker 1: maintain control of about six hundred kilometers, which is three
Speaker 1: hundred and seventy three miles of Iranian territory from kish
Speaker 1: Island in the west to bondor a Boss in the east,
Speaker 1: in order to stop Iran from firing missiles at passing ships.
Speaker 1: It is a mission that Kannibal said would likely require
Speaker 1: three US infantry divisions roughly thirty thousand to forty five
Speaker 1: thousand troops. You know, I gotta agree with that, I think,
Speaker 1: and I said that too whenever they were talking about
Speaker 1: how they're sending two different marine expeditionary units, and they're
Speaker 1: sending some of the eighty second Airborne and this and this,
Speaker 1: like they're not gonna do anything. You're not about to
Speaker 1: strong point an offensive with five thousand dudes and just
Speaker 1: say yeah, that'll be good enough. Send it, Like, no,
Speaker 1: you're not. I don't care what kind of softening you're doing.
Speaker 1: I don't care what kind of bombing runs you're doing.
Speaker 1: That's not it's never gonna be soft enough for sub
Speaker 1: ten thousand guys to strongpoint an entire beach invasion and
Speaker 1: call that like, oh, yeah, we're doing some real success here.
Speaker 1: That's asinine. But I also have believed that that was
Speaker 1: to bolster some numbers, you know, give a little more leverage,
Speaker 1: threatening with a little more severity.
Speaker 2: I I thought that was the route that was gonna be.
Speaker 1: But anyway, this would be an indefinite operation, So you know,
Speaker 1: think be ready to do this for twenty years, said Cannibal,
Speaker 1: a retire Marine Corps intelligence officer, say, I know it
Speaker 1: like that guy. We didn't think we were going to
Speaker 1: be in Afghanistan for twenty years. We didn't think we
Speaker 1: were gonna have We didn't think we were going to
Speaker 1: have to be in Vietnam as long as you were,
Speaker 1: or Iraq. The two week ceasefire includes allowing both Iran
Speaker 1: and Oman to charge fees on ships transitting through Hormuz,
Speaker 1: a regional office said. The office said Iran would be
Speaker 1: the money, or it would use the money it raises
Speaker 1: for reconstruction. White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt on Wednesday
Speaker 1: note that Trump has considered the idea of a toll
Speaker 1: for vessels passing through the straits, but in the near term,
Speaker 1: his priority is the reopening of the street without any limitations,
Speaker 1: whether in the form of tolls or otherwise. So as
Speaker 1: of this moment, yes see, I don't think the toll
Speaker 1: thing is going to go overwhelm I understand why around
Speaker 1: wants it and om on, for sure, it makes sense
Speaker 1: to me. But if the world got all shitty whenever
Speaker 1: America started throwing fifteen percent tariffs on everybody, I got
Speaker 1: a hard time believing that the world is gonna be like, oh, okay,
Speaker 1: mister Ayatola, we'll pay you twenty percent of what the
Speaker 1: load is worth as an extortion fee.
Speaker 2: I have a hard time picturing that. I just I
Speaker 2: don't know. I don't know. Anyway, we're pretty much to
Speaker 2: the end of it.
Speaker 1: I don't want to read about JD. Vancies.
Speaker 2: He's a person, one of the most people. Some might say.
Speaker 1: All right, moving forward here now, as we're talking about
Speaker 1: these Tomahawk missiles that have been dropped and everything, the
Speaker 1: US Navy seeks a one thousand, two hundred percent increase
Speaker 1: in Tomahawk missile procurement for twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 6: Bro.
Speaker 1: The Navy wants twelve to thirteen times the amount of
Speaker 1: Tomahawks to be bought next year.
Speaker 2: That's mind blowing, but all right.
Speaker 1: The US Navy is requesting a three billion dollars to
Speaker 1: replenish the stockpile of Tomahawk missiles that have been depleted
Speaker 1: over the course of the Iran War. According to the
Speaker 1: Defense Department's fiscal twenty twenty seven budget request. As part
Speaker 1: of the one point five trillion dollar budget requested request
Speaker 1: released Friday, the Navy is asked for a twelve hundred
Speaker 1: percent increase in the number of long range land attack missiles.
Speaker 1: The fiscal twenty twenty six Congress granted the service two
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty seven million for the purchase of fifty
Speaker 1: eight Tomahawk missiles. The Navy is now asking lawmakers to
Speaker 1: subsidize the production of seven hundred and eighty five Tomahawk
Speaker 1: missiles for a little over three billion dollars, including roughly
Speaker 1: one point five billion for Tomahawk missile modifications. The twenty
Speaker 1: twenty seven budget also requested four hundred and ninety four
Speaker 1: advanced medium range air to air missiles for a proximately
Speaker 1: eight hundred million, up from the one hundred and six
Speaker 1: am rams for roughly sixty nine million it asked for
Speaker 1: in the fiscal year of twenty twenty six. The Navy
Speaker 1: requested over twenty two billion dollars for overall weapons procurement,
Speaker 1: up from the approximate ten billion requested for the same
Speaker 1: category in twenty twenty six. The Washington Post reported on
Speaker 1: March twenty seven that the Pentagon was burning through Tomahawk
Speaker 1: missiles at an alarming rate, launching at least eight hundred
Speaker 1: and fifty since the Iran War began on February twenty eighth.
Speaker 1: That is, that is insane. The Center for Strategic International
Speaker 1: Studies released a report that said the US likely still
Speaker 1: has close to three thousand Tomahawks still in its arsenal,
Speaker 1: but the report stated that the eight hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: missiles were the most ever for a single military campaign.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been six weeks. That's that's fucking mind blowing.
Speaker 1: Here. The next closest was eight hundred and two Tomahawks
Speaker 1: that were used during Operation Iraqi Freedom. Yeah, and I'll
Speaker 1: remember how people are losing their minds about that one.
Speaker 1: Twenty twenty seven budget requests, if passed, would largely replenish
Speaker 1: the bulk of the missiles used during Operation Epic Fury,
Speaker 1: notwithstanding the timeline it would take for them to be delivered.
Speaker 1: Mark Kansian Sansian, I don't know, one of the authors
Speaker 1: of the CSIS report, told Military Times in an interview
Speaker 1: that it would take two to three years to replace
Speaker 1: the eight hundred.
Speaker 2: And fifty Tomahawks.
Speaker 1: Tomahawks already expended, so just in what we've blown in
Speaker 1: the last six weeks, he's saying it would take two
Speaker 1: or three years just to make them, regardless of what
Speaker 1: the money looks like. The Navy is expected to receive
Speaker 1: one hundred and ten Tomahawks and fiscal twenty twenty six year.
Speaker 2: According to the report.
Speaker 1: Tomahawks are ship launched ground attack missiles that possess long
Speaker 1: range accuracy and contain a one thousand pound warhead.
Speaker 2: The clip at.
Speaker 1: Which Tomahawks are being launched is reportedly affecting Pentagon business agreements.
Speaker 1: Japan's order for roughly four hundred Tomahawk missiles for the
Speaker 1: US is facing potential setbacks as a result of the
Speaker 1: heavy use of this specific ammunition during the Iran War.
Speaker 1: The order was originally set to be completed by March
Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight. RTX formerly Raytheon, produced one hundred new
Speaker 1: missiles in twenty twenty five. They also reported this. The
Speaker 1: defense contractor also signed an agreement with the Defense Department
Speaker 1: on February fourth to increase annual production of Tomahawk missiles
Speaker 1: up to one thousand over a potential seven year span.
Speaker 1: And I do remember that the DoD now the DOW,
Speaker 1: reached out to Raytheon and wanted to boost some productions
Speaker 1: of specifically Patriots, but also some tomahawks, some attack thems.
Speaker 1: If I'm not mistaken, a couple of these, and it
Speaker 1: wasn't a small number. And everybody thought, oh, there you go,
Speaker 1: the military industrial complex and the war machine. And now
Speaker 1: it's like, no, it's probably possible that they knew we
Speaker 1: were going to be using some of our older stock
Speaker 1: and we were going to need to replenish. I don't know,
Speaker 1: let's see what's on the next one. Oh, this is
Speaker 1: a fun one though. So remember how I said that
Speaker 1: we had a little bit of a snaffoo where people
Speaker 1: genuinely thought that the ceasefire was broken. Come to find out,
Speaker 1: the UAE Mirage jets suspected in the post ceasefire strike
Speaker 1: in Iranian refinery. This is from Turkey today or turk Ia.
Speaker 1: I forget how the Turkish pronounced their own country.
Speaker 2: Doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: In America, we call it Turkey. And apparently they sent
Speaker 1: a Mirage jet to drop some ordinance after a ceasefire
Speaker 1: was striked or a ceasefire was agreed upon strike, but
Speaker 1: I don't know if the UAE was actually read in
Speaker 1: on the conversation or was this like a little oopsie daisy,
Speaker 1: let's read it.
Speaker 2: So, the UAE emerged.
Speaker 1: Wednesday as a suspected offensive actor in the widening Golf conflict,
Speaker 1: with multiple Iranian sore and open source military analysis pointing
Speaker 1: to the UAE Air Force Mirage two thousand and nine
Speaker 1: fighter jets as the platform behind a strike on Iran's
Speaker 1: Lavan Island oil refinery hours after a US brokeer ceasefire
Speaker 1: was supposed to have halted hostilities.
Speaker 2: Abu Dhabi has.
Speaker 1: Not confirmed nor denied the allegations, but the circumstantial case
Speaker 1: circulating in defense intelligence communities is substantial enough to have
Speaker 1: triggered an immediate Iranian retaliation or retaliatory response against the
Speaker 1: Amorati territory. Photographs circulating on social media Wednesday purportedly show
Speaker 1: one of the UAS Mirage two thousand tac nines involved
Speaker 1: in the operation. While the images have not been independently verified,
Speaker 1: analysis noted that the aircraft type is both operationally confirmed
Speaker 1: as active that morning and technically suited to exactly this
Speaker 1: type of mission. The UAE Ministry of Defense confirmed earlier
Speaker 1: in the day that its Mirage jets had I've been
Speaker 1: scrambled framing their role as intercepting incoming Iranian drones and missiles.
Speaker 1: Whether those same sorties also included offensive tasking against Levon
Speaker 1: remains the central unanswered question. This is the image. This
Speaker 1: is the picture of whatever the hell dropped some ordinance
Speaker 1: on a power plant, and it's.
Speaker 2: Definitely not American.
Speaker 1: We can give you actual information as far as where
Speaker 1: all of our planes were that day.
Speaker 2: But this shore looks like a Mirage to me.
Speaker 1: And I'm not an expert in aircraft, but you know,
Speaker 1: look at that picture, look at these pictures.
Speaker 2: You know I could see it.
Speaker 1: I really could anyway, So a strike platform built for
Speaker 1: exactly this role. The Mirage two thousand and Tact nine
Speaker 1: is the most capable export variant of the dessaults long
Speaker 1: running Mirage two thousand family, and the UA East Fleet
Speaker 1: represents the type at its operational peak. Abu Dhabi signed
Speaker 1: a three point two billion dollar contract in nineteen ninety
Speaker 1: eight for thirty two newly built aircraft and the upgrade
Speaker 1: of thirty older airframes to the same standard. Given the
Speaker 1: Emirates one of the most advanced Mirage fleets ever operated.
Speaker 1: The aircraft is equipped with Shabab or Shahab laser targeting pods,
Speaker 1: the RDY two synthetic aperture radar with synthetic apertures and
Speaker 1: moving target indicator in mods, a fully integrated IMEWS electronic
Speaker 1: warfare suit described by analysis as comparable to the most
Speaker 1: advanced systems of any fourth generation fighter, and the Black
Speaker 1: Shaheen Cruise missile, a variant of the MBDA Apache capable
Speaker 1: of precision standoff strikes. Long story short, the Mirage is
Speaker 1: a very capable aircraft component, and yeah, it's very possible
Speaker 1: that that's who drops some ordinance here. The Iranian State
Speaker 1: Television attributed the Levon strike explicitly to a ceasefire violation,
Speaker 1: while the NIOARDC called it a cowardly attack by the enemies.
Speaker 1: The Islamic Republic News Agency was more direct, pointing to
Speaker 1: the UAE and its framing of the retaliatory operations that followed.
Speaker 1: Within roughly an hour of the attack, Iran's IRIIB reported
Speaker 1: that the drone and missile strikes had been launched against
Speaker 1: the UAE and Kuwait indirect response, The retaliation was substantial.
Speaker 2: Kuwait's armed forces said they engaged twenty eight Iranian drones
Speaker 2: between eight am and one pm local time. Some targeted
Speaker 2: oil installations, power stations, and water desalination infrastructure in the
Speaker 2: country south, causing what the military describes as significant material damage.
Speaker 1: The UAE said its air defense systems were simultaneously intercepting
Speaker 1: ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Fires broke
Speaker 1: out at Abu Dhabi's Hobshaan gas complex after interception debris
Speaker 1: fell on the facility. Bahram reported drone activity as well,
Speaker 1: with two citizens sustained any minor injuries from shrapnel in
Speaker 1: the Citra area. So all right, I am of the
Speaker 1: opinion as of this moment that the ceasefire break that
Speaker 1: you may have heard of was probably this. I don't
Speaker 1: know this for a fact, but I would believe it
Speaker 1: if if that makes sense. But yeah, before we get
Speaker 1: to anything else, actually, I might as well go ahead
Speaker 1: and check the chat.
Speaker 2: I don't.
Speaker 1: I can find no UH. I can find no information
Speaker 1: to say that UH, Israel, America or the the or
Speaker 1: Iran have broken the ceasefire by their own UH basically
Speaker 1: throwing up a middle finger and saying, fuck itt, the
Speaker 1: war's back on. I cannot see any of this, but
Speaker 1: all right, let's let's check the chat real quick. Cool, y'all, y'all,
Speaker 1: I'll drop some knowledge here, okay, Jesus, Yeah, scroll way
Speaker 1: up here. So talking about the teetering ceasefire and Lebanon,
Speaker 1: mnus suggest Sam being Sam, okay, got you, got you
Speaker 1: the only places that didn't get oil.
Speaker 2: Love you to uh just please take deep breath from
Speaker 2: time to peace to all. Yeah, yeah, I feel that.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 1: Does anyone want to talk about the rescued pilot and
Speaker 1: the WSO and what may have happened there? I would
Speaker 1: love to, because I have seen so many different reports
Speaker 1: of what happened. Apparently there was this epic gunfight and
Speaker 1: Aroan is somehow claiming it as a victory. Even though
Speaker 1: we got our pilots back, they had to send in
Speaker 1: special forces this whole thing, Tony, what have you heard
Speaker 1: about it?
Speaker 5: Okay, here's what I have heard about this. The speculation
Speaker 5: is that this was a much much, much larger operation
Speaker 5: to uh, I guess land a bunch of people like
Speaker 5: one hundred guys. Trump multiple times said that there were
Speaker 5: one hundred guys with this operation going into Iran, not
Speaker 5: just way back on computers, but that this was a
Speaker 5: big operation attempting to collect all of their enriched uranium,
Speaker 5: all four hundred pounds of it, from Isfahan, which is
Speaker 5: kind of in the middle of the country, sort of
Speaker 5: western middle of the country. And there's a lot of
Speaker 5: things about the down plane, the F fifteen that don't
Speaker 5: make sense. A lot of people pointed out that the
Speaker 5: first the pilot was rescued from Huzastan Province, but that's
Speaker 5: way in the west, and Isfahan is like one hundred
Speaker 5: miles to the east of that. And the explanation I
Speaker 5: saw for that is that, well, it's possible that they
Speaker 5: ejected separately, and a plane could coast one hundred miles
Speaker 5: if it's high up enough and following its gleidslope, So
Speaker 5: I guess that's possible. But this other mission with lots
Speaker 5: of guys, I don't know if it was one hundred,
Speaker 5: but you know, multiple c one thirties or one thirty fives.
Speaker 5: They were going to go to one place near us Fahan.
Speaker 5: They ended up going to where the downed weapons safety
Speaker 5: officer ended up instead, which was a few miles away,
Speaker 5: so their mission got totally sidetracked and basically aborted. Everyone
Speaker 5: may have gotten out of their lives, all the Americans,
Speaker 5: but they did not accomplish their mission of getting the
Speaker 5: enrisched uranium. This might have been a blessing in disguise,
Speaker 5: because if they had gotten bogged down trying to get
Speaker 5: that uranium from a position that was much better defended,
Speaker 5: a lot of them might have died. So yeah, so
Speaker 5: Trump really wanted the uranium, did not get it. This
Speaker 5: could also be why there were a couple of the
Speaker 5: major firings of a couple of generals, like General Randy
Speaker 5: George just a few days before it happened.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I cannot believe they fired General George of all
Speaker 1: the people that they would take out.
Speaker 2: That dude was excellent at his job. But sure, that's
Speaker 2: a flex I guess.
Speaker 5: Yeah, they might. He might have not wanted to do
Speaker 5: this operation and they needed somebody else who would. So
Speaker 5: this is all speculation, but it would explain why there
Speaker 5: were so many aircraft that ended up destroyed in Iran.
Speaker 1: So, and this might be me being a bit conspiratorial,
Speaker 1: but I want to bounce this off of you, and
Speaker 1: you tell me what you think, and again this is
Speaker 1: not me taking the opportunity to shit on Iran's defense capabilities,
Speaker 1: but hear me out. We were flying eight ten war
Speaker 1: dogs in this country, and the only way you're flying
Speaker 1: that is if you have complete air dominance, like unquestioned
Speaker 1: air dominance. That's a very slow airframe. So for the
Speaker 1: this F fifteen to get shot down, that was a
Speaker 1: lot of people said, oh see, Jacob doesn't know what
Speaker 1: he's talking about. Clearly their air defense they're still operational.
Speaker 1: If they're able to shoot down at F fifteen. What
Speaker 1: are the chances realistically that they were allowed to shoot
Speaker 1: this down that they wanted this F fifteen to get
Speaker 1: hit so that the pilots could eject so they could
Speaker 1: launch this big operation under the guise of a rescue mission,
Speaker 1: when in reality this.
Speaker 2: Was some secret squirrel type shit. What are the chances of.
Speaker 5: That, The odds that the US wanted some kind.
Speaker 2: Of justified reason to do more like.
Speaker 5: This search and rescue pretty low in my opinion, really,
Speaker 5: But yeah, I think Iran's air defense it's probably very
Speaker 5: scattered from place to place throughout the country. It's a
Speaker 5: huge country, after all, it's way bigger than Texas. Yeah,
Speaker 5: and they probably had more air defense in Isfahan than elsewhere.
Speaker 5: And you know, it probably just depends on where the
Speaker 5: planes are flying, and there's probably vast stretches of land
Speaker 5: where they can fly without getting shot down. But don't
Speaker 5: go to the wrong place.
Speaker 1: That's fair, right, Okay, I don't know, And I've heard
Speaker 1: a couple of people say that, and it's like, oh shit,
Speaker 1: who was it.
Speaker 2: It wasn't candae Ellans. I forget who it was.
Speaker 1: It was somebody that was talking about why would they
Speaker 1: send all of this for two pilots, which the pilot
Speaker 1: was recovered relatively quickly. It was the weapons officer they
Speaker 1: were trying to get. Why would they do all of
Speaker 1: this with all this manpower to get this one person?
Speaker 1: That doesn't seem like it's justifiable. And I'm like, that's
Speaker 1: typically how America does things, especially with somebody who has
Speaker 1: critical knowledge about weapons systems like that. Yeah, they got
Speaker 1: to get him out of there before he becomes a prisoner.
Speaker 1: But I heard a few people say that it might
Speaker 1: and maybe not that the pilots allowed themselves to get
Speaker 1: shot down for this purpose, but the American forces saw
Speaker 1: their golden opportunity and is like Okay, so we have
Speaker 1: to send in a force to get these dudes out.
Speaker 1: We could send twenty, but we also could send an
Speaker 1: extra eighty and have them go do some other shit
Speaker 1: while they happen to be there under this banner.
Speaker 2: And I don't know. I haven't done much of a
Speaker 2: deep dive into this. I've heard a few people throw
Speaker 2: it out. I thought it was interesting. I don't know anyway.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't know either, But glad we got to
Speaker 5: talk about it.
Speaker 2: No doubt, no doubt.
Speaker 1: Trump referred multiple times to one hundreds of personnel on
Speaker 1: the ground around.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you did, absolutely. Spirit is like old test Or bust.
Speaker 1: I don't know what you meant by that Midnight Kong,
Speaker 1: but all right, oh you're talking about spirit animal.
Speaker 2: It's like old Testament or Noah bro.
Speaker 5: Ye, spirit animal left.
Speaker 2: Yeah he did.
Speaker 1: He took off.
Speaker 2: He's always jumping on it. He was real quick to
Speaker 2: go old Testamental stuff. I was like, calm down a
Speaker 2: little bit.
Speaker 1: Bro It kills me when these Chris and I understand
Speaker 1: as Christians we should be acknowledging both Testaments, but we
Speaker 1: live under the New. But man, you'll find some of
Speaker 1: these dudes that re the old Testament as if Jesus
Speaker 1: wrote it. And it's like, ooh, I don't think we
Speaker 1: should be getting down with all of the Old Testament.
Speaker 2: Matter of fact, I'm wearing flannel right now.
Speaker 1: Just all under the law of LEVI I'd be like
Speaker 1: put to death under this shit because this is similar
Speaker 1: cloths and shit. But anyway, yeah, yeah, some of those
Speaker 1: Old Testament fuckers, Man, they take it too far.
Speaker 2: And Sam is just Sam, must be honest. I don't
Speaker 2: even think he's Old Testament. I think he's just Sam.
Speaker 2: But that's correct.
Speaker 1: Yeah, uh philly, Ok, that's the word philioke tony and
Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. It's like this is like
Speaker 1: the Father the Son in the Holy Spirit or something
Speaker 1: along this line.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm trying to remember the exact line and the
Speaker 5: nice scene create it goes, I believe in the Holy Spirit,
Speaker 5: who proceeds from the Father. And somebody added the word philioko,
Speaker 5: which means and the Son. Yeah, So does the Holy
Speaker 5: Spirit proceed only from the Father or from the Father
Speaker 5: and the Son? Yeah, I can't answer that question. This
Speaker 5: is all just faith based.
Speaker 2: That's one of the divine mysteries of the book, right right, right.
Speaker 5: But this is the one word that the East and
Speaker 5: West completely disagree about. It's philioque. It means and the sun.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's it's crazy.
Speaker 1: But also props to the Pope for trying to offer
Speaker 1: a bridge, you know, and just trying to elevate above
Speaker 1: and beyond the past. I find that to be good.
Speaker 1: With this little button I could turn. Oh Jesus Christ, Sam,
Speaker 1: this dude, I swear to God.
Speaker 2: Anyway.
Speaker 1: All right, all right, so you know we are moving
Speaker 1: on while we're talking about the things shifting and the
Speaker 1: prices of oil going down and stocks are going up.
Speaker 1: I do find it interesting that bitcoin prices break seventy
Speaker 1: two thousand dollars after US are on ceasefire. What comes next?
Speaker 4: Now?
Speaker 1: If y'all remember just a few months back, when these
Speaker 1: Epstein files dropped, the bitcoin price dropped out as well.
Speaker 2: It went downhill.
Speaker 1: Now bitcoin prices are up over seventy two thousand per
Speaker 1: coin because of Iran I financeting. Let's read more. Bitcoin
Speaker 1: serge Tuesday evening after President Trump announced a temporary ceasefire
Speaker 1: with Iran, a move that sent the largest cryptocurrency higher
Speaker 1: and sparked a broader market repricing. Following Trump's announcement, Bitcoin
Speaker 1: jumped nearly five percent and traded around seventy two thousand
Speaker 1: at the time of writing. Crypto market capitalization climbed roughly
Speaker 1: two point three trillion to about two point four to
Speaker 1: three trillion as investors poured back into risk assess assets,
Speaker 1: while oil prices tumbled on the de escalation in the
Speaker 1: Middle East. So why did the ceasefire spark bitcoin demand?
Speaker 1: In his post, Trump said that he agreed to suspending
Speaker 1: strikes in Iran for two weeks, conditional on the Tehrant's
Speaker 1: commitment to complete immediate and safe.
Speaker 2: Opening of the show corn moves.
Speaker 1: The president added that he made the decision after convergion
Speaker 1: conversations with Pakistan's Prime Minister and Field Marshall, who asked
Speaker 1: him to hold off on military action. Market experts also
Speaker 1: pointed to additional proximate drivers of the rally beyond the
Speaker 1: geopolitical news. On social media platform x Defied Tracer identified
Speaker 1: large buys in major exchanges and market makers immediately after
Speaker 1: the ceasefire was announced. According to experts, bit nance Binance
Speaker 1: excuse Me purchased twenty nine three and forty four bitcoin,
Speaker 1: wow Coinbase bought twenty a little over twenty thousand bitcoin,
Speaker 1: Kraken acquired over eighty six hundred bitcoin, Winter Mute bought
Speaker 1: a little over seventy or seven thousand, by Bit picked
Speaker 1: up Damn near fifty two hundred, and transactions together totaled
Speaker 1: about four point five billion in bitcoin. So right after
Speaker 1: Trump made this announcement, everybody decided now was the time
Speaker 1: to move on bitcoin. Which this is why I don't
Speaker 1: do it. This is why I don't gamble in the
Speaker 1: crypto markets. It makes no sense to me how people.
Speaker 2: Will be able to read the writing on the wall.
Speaker 1: And be like, Yep, now's the time to move. I
Speaker 1: just don't see it. I don't see it anyway, y'all.
Speaker 1: That's pretty much all I have for this episode. Had
Speaker 1: a couple other articles we could have talked about, but
Speaker 1: it's not really pertinent, just some science stuff. But anyway,
Speaker 1: for everybody listening to this show on Thursday, what you
Speaker 1: could do to join us every Wednesday night at nine
Speaker 1: pm Central is go to link the description to Patreon
Speaker 1: dot com slash Cajun Night. We're just trying to grow
Speaker 1: this to be its own information sharing gathering that gets
Speaker 1: together once a week to discuss the things of the.
Speaker 2: Day and age.
Speaker 1: I want to thank everybody for joining me on this
Speaker 1: one and as always, I am the Cajun
Speaker 2: Knight and God bless