1 00:00:22,280 --> 00:00:26,440 Speaker 1: And hello, how are you welcome to the Big Podcast. 2 00:00:26,519 --> 00:00:32,320 It is Wednesday, the fifteenth day of April, Year of 3 00:00:32,359 --> 00:00:35,600 Our Lord, twenty twenty six. My name is Tom Sullivan, 4 00:00:36,079 --> 00:00:40,679 yep April fifteenth, and I don't know it used to 5 00:00:40,679 --> 00:00:44,159 be I don't know April fifteenth. It used to be 6 00:00:44,759 --> 00:00:47,719 more of an occasion. It's tax day. Is the deadline 7 00:00:47,759 --> 00:00:52,439 for filing your twenty twenty five taxes. But that doesn't 8 00:00:52,479 --> 00:00:57,479 mean you have I mean if you if you don't 9 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:02,880 file or don't file an extension. Extensions are free. If 10 00:01:02,920 --> 00:01:05,439 you don't file either of those, you can get a 11 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:11,319 penalty which is pretty expensive. That is for failure to file, 12 00:01:12,079 --> 00:01:16,879 and that has an assessment every single month. I believe 13 00:01:17,159 --> 00:01:18,959 I'm doing this for memory, so I may be out 14 00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:20,640 of touch with it, but it was five percent a 15 00:01:20,640 --> 00:01:24,319 month up to twenty five percent of your taxes. It's 16 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:27,079 the penalty. So there's a penalty for failure to file 17 00:01:28,079 --> 00:01:31,159 or for being late to file, and then the other 18 00:01:31,239 --> 00:01:35,040 penalty is for failure to pay. So even if you 19 00:01:35,239 --> 00:01:39,920 file an extension, which is free, and I know you 20 00:01:39,959 --> 00:01:42,920 haven't done your taxes because otherwise you wouldn't be filing 21 00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,599 an extension. But if So how you're supposed to know 22 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:51,879 if you owe anything, Well, IRS thinks that you're good 23 00:01:51,879 --> 00:01:54,760 at guessing, and that's kind of what you've got to 24 00:01:54,799 --> 00:01:58,239 do is do your best, but try to figure out 25 00:01:58,280 --> 00:02:01,319 what it is regarding how much you think you're going 26 00:02:01,359 --> 00:02:04,319 to owe and and pay it today. And if you 27 00:02:04,519 --> 00:02:08,039 if you don't pay it today, then there's interest penalties, 28 00:02:08,560 --> 00:02:12,719 So failure to file and failure to pay at the 29 00:02:12,759 --> 00:02:18,879 penalty and interest. So it's yeah, I know, you know, 30 00:02:19,039 --> 00:02:22,599 it wouldn't it wouldn't be so bad if well, I'm 31 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:28,039 just exaggerated, if if they've spent our money more wisely. 32 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,960 I mean, we can disagree about how they're going to 33 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:35,159 spend our money, but seriously, they're just out of control 34 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:40,319 with their spending. I mean, this is you know again, 35 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:43,840 we're we are in. It doesn't matter Republican or Democrat, 36 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:48,719 they're all big spenders. So anyway, happy tax day to you. 37 00:02:50,439 --> 00:02:55,159 Go ahead, yeah, try to find a way to relax. 38 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:58,240 I've got oh, I got a phone call from Eric 39 00:02:58,319 --> 00:03:00,159 that I got to play for you later. He's all 40 00:03:00,560 --> 00:03:05,680 all depressed about his taxes. But meantime, what do we 41 00:03:05,719 --> 00:03:10,000 got today? We've got course the update on the blockade, 42 00:03:10,319 --> 00:03:16,120 and we've got the update on Eric Swallwell and some 43 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:23,000 observations about the TPUSA gathering at the University of Georgia 44 00:03:23,080 --> 00:03:29,199 last time. So let's get started as far as the 45 00:03:29,199 --> 00:03:33,159 the war effort goes, I still, for the life of me, 46 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:36,879 do not understand why we are negotiating with the with 47 00:03:37,039 --> 00:03:41,120 these people that are from the same regime. We don't 48 00:03:41,159 --> 00:03:43,360 have a regime change at all, So why are we 49 00:03:43,439 --> 00:03:45,919 negotiating with these people that you can't trust. They lie 50 00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:51,800 like a sieve, they always have. So Brett mcdirk, who 51 00:03:51,919 --> 00:03:54,280 I think always has a good level head on his 52 00:03:54,319 --> 00:03:57,599 shoulders about all this because he's got great experience in 53 00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:01,520 dealing with the Middle East and with the wrong has 54 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:02,159 this to say. 55 00:04:02,439 --> 00:04:05,159 Speaker 2: Andison I would never say I'm optimistic on anything regarding 56 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:07,879 the Iran file. I am hearing from people in the 57 00:04:07,919 --> 00:04:11,400 region from that, the senses we're winding our way to 58 00:04:11,479 --> 00:04:14,919 another round of talks, to a diplomatic path and we'll 59 00:04:14,919 --> 00:04:17,319 see that is definitely the sense that's out there. There's 60 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:21,199 a lot of diplomatic work behind the scenes from mediators. 61 00:04:21,240 --> 00:04:25,360 The Chinese are leaning on the Iranians, I'm told who 62 00:04:25,399 --> 00:04:28,040 knows for what's really happening, but I think we are 63 00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,319 likely to see a second round of talks. But I'm 64 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:32,720 watching two indicators and I think, you know, separate the 65 00:04:33,399 --> 00:04:35,319 signal from the noise and what's being said from day 66 00:04:35,319 --> 00:04:38,120 to day. Number One is the ceasefire holding right now? Yes, 67 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:42,199 I think that's very good. Number Two, is this blockade 68 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,000 of shipping from Iranian ports? Is that working? Sencom is 69 00:04:45,079 --> 00:04:47,560 very confident that it is. Some of the ship tracker 70 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:49,120 data suggests somemmer squirting through. 71 00:04:49,160 --> 00:04:50,000 Speaker 3: We'll have to see. 72 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,480 Speaker 2: But then the third thing, are is Iran going to 73 00:04:52,519 --> 00:04:56,120 contest that or not? So right now they're not, But 74 00:04:56,199 --> 00:04:58,519 if they do, then we're back into a conflict phase. 75 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:01,120 So let me just kind of back up. Right now, 76 00:05:01,439 --> 00:05:03,800 it looks like the diplomatic path is getting some traction, 77 00:05:04,199 --> 00:05:07,720 the ceasefire is holding, that's good, and all eyes still 78 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,600 in the straight of hormose. Is the US blockade working 79 00:05:12,240 --> 00:05:14,560 keeping that traffic away from the Iranian ports? That's going 80 00:05:14,600 --> 00:05:17,079 to really bite the Iranians. And the second part of 81 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,360 that mission though for Sentcom, is to open the international 82 00:05:20,439 --> 00:05:23,160 passages to the Strait to give confidence to shippers to 83 00:05:23,240 --> 00:05:26,759 pass through. And that still seems to be not happening. 84 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:28,399 So I'm keep an eye on that, keep an eye 85 00:05:28,399 --> 00:05:30,800 on the straight up. Our moose is a ceasefire holding, 86 00:05:30,959 --> 00:05:33,399 and do we have this second round of talks before 87 00:05:33,439 --> 00:05:35,680 the ceasefire expires next week. 88 00:05:35,839 --> 00:05:38,800 Speaker 1: As we wrapped up the podcast yesterday, there was a 89 00:05:38,879 --> 00:05:41,480 rumor about it wasn't rumored. The President came out and said, yeah, 90 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,839 we may have talked within the next couple of days. 91 00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,360 That was yesterday Tuesday, so they were thinking by Thursday. 92 00:05:47,399 --> 00:05:51,240 And now I don't know. He says stuff like that. 93 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:55,000 He says he lives in a world that he wishes 94 00:05:55,160 --> 00:05:59,439 the world was, and the reality is it doesn't look 95 00:06:00,279 --> 00:06:02,839 Somebody said, I mean we may have it here, said 96 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:05,879 it takes twenty hours to fly there. You're not going 97 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:08,120 to get talked within the next couple of days. But 98 00:06:08,120 --> 00:06:10,439 it would seem to me like coming back a week later, 99 00:06:10,639 --> 00:06:14,560 all the way to Pakistan. Come on, let's get some 100 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:18,399 real meat on the table by the underlings and come 101 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:20,319 up with an agreement, if there is one. But I 102 00:06:20,399 --> 00:06:25,040 still I think we should continue the military effort and 103 00:06:25,079 --> 00:06:30,160 crush the regime, crush the leaders of that country, and 104 00:06:30,199 --> 00:06:32,720 then go in and supervise it for a year. Or 105 00:06:32,759 --> 00:06:36,120 two and let the people choose their own leaders. Another 106 00:06:36,160 --> 00:06:40,560 way of looking at this is Scott Anderson, who is 107 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:45,519 a prolific author who has written extensively about Iran. He's 108 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:49,920 not so optimistic. I'm not very optimistic. I think there's 109 00:06:49,959 --> 00:06:54,160 two kind of core questions here. Who benefits from dragging 110 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,399 the process out absolutely on the side of the ir onions. 111 00:06:56,439 --> 00:06:59,519 And the second is which side can endure the most 112 00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,879 suffer and most pain. And I think clearly the Ironience 113 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:07,639 have proven that as well. I you know, this idea 114 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,279 that the blockade so ships. 115 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:10,600 Speaker 4: Can't come up, and this is a country that's been 116 00:07:11,279 --> 00:07:13,399 you know, had tens of thousands of bombs dropped on 117 00:07:13,399 --> 00:07:15,759 it the last month. The idea that it's going to somehow, 118 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,079 you know, kneel down because of the naval blockade, I 119 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,600 think is silly. The economy was already in a shambles. 120 00:07:23,480 --> 00:07:26,199 That's what led to the to the demonstrations and the 121 00:07:26,279 --> 00:07:30,519 killings in January. I think that I think that the regime. 122 00:07:30,759 --> 00:07:32,079 I think if you go back, and I think it's 123 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:35,120 important to look at what happened in January that the regime. 124 00:07:35,920 --> 00:07:38,319 There was demonstrations against the regime for ten days that 125 00:07:38,360 --> 00:07:42,600 were largely peaceful. They were mistasticizing the size. Finally the 126 00:07:42,600 --> 00:07:44,800 government reached a point where it thought it was going 127 00:07:44,839 --> 00:07:47,680 to go down, so they killed thirty to forty thousand 128 00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:52,120 people in one weekend. They see their back against the wall, 129 00:07:52,319 --> 00:07:55,759 and as as Miss Sherman said, they need to feel 130 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:59,519 like they're getting something out of any sort of negotiated settlement. 131 00:08:00,079 --> 00:08:04,079 They don't have much to give because they could be 132 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:06,720 overthrown by the people and they don't you know, they'd be. 133 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: Slaughter So these are the people that were negotiating with really. 134 00:08:11,680 --> 00:08:15,079 Brett McGirk also responds to what s good Anderson was. 135 00:08:15,079 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 2: Saying, SAMs, I largely agree with the thrust of what 136 00:08:17,639 --> 00:08:19,360 Scott's saying. I also have to we have to have 137 00:08:19,399 --> 00:08:21,800 some humility. We really don't know what's happening inside Iran. 138 00:08:22,240 --> 00:08:24,360 And if you would if we were on this two 139 00:08:24,399 --> 00:08:27,680 weeks ago and someone had said we are going to 140 00:08:27,759 --> 00:08:31,439 see a ceasefire, and then the highest level talks between 141 00:08:31,519 --> 00:08:34,279 Iran and the United States since the nineteen seventy nine revolution, 142 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,840 with Gotliboff meeting face to face with the Vice President 143 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,279 and with the IRGC there and the entire team from 144 00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:42,919 are on there I would have said that's highly unlikely 145 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,120 to happen, because I did not think the first move 146 00:08:45,159 --> 00:08:47,799 of whoever rises to the leadership ranks in Tehran after 147 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:51,080 this conflict would reach out to the Great Satan. The 148 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,200 one thing that going back to home Andy they said 149 00:08:53,200 --> 00:08:55,799 you cannot do. They really just shattered a taboo. So 150 00:08:55,840 --> 00:08:58,559 it's fairly extraordinary that that happened, and that these talks 151 00:08:58,559 --> 00:08:59,440 are still ongoing. 152 00:08:59,799 --> 00:09:00,480 Speaker 5: So I don't know. 153 00:09:00,519 --> 00:09:02,919 Speaker 2: I agree it'll take. So you can read it two ways. 154 00:09:03,039 --> 00:09:06,039 You could say they feel so strong that they're coming 155 00:09:06,759 --> 00:09:09,159 to you know, show that we have the strength and 156 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:11,159 we're gonna we're finally going to meet with you face 157 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:13,000 to face at the most senior level we've never done 158 00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:16,080 it before. Or they're in some trouble and they actually 159 00:09:16,320 --> 00:09:19,240 they know it and we are offering significant sanctions relie 160 00:09:19,240 --> 00:09:22,039 because I understand that, which is something they want, uh 161 00:09:22,080 --> 00:09:25,559 and to to you know, they can do a violent crackdown, 162 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:27,080 but they also want to I think, alleviate some of 163 00:09:27,120 --> 00:09:29,720 the economic strain in their population. So we have some 164 00:09:29,759 --> 00:09:30,399 cards to play. 165 00:09:30,799 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 1: I don't know General Keith Kellogg, he's been around, been 166 00:09:35,879 --> 00:09:39,000 around this war business for a long long time and 167 00:09:39,039 --> 00:09:41,440 he and I are on the same page. 168 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:44,519 Speaker 6: I'm already the next step. What I mean by the 169 00:09:44,519 --> 00:09:47,039 next step I go to blockade, and we're rather as 170 00:09:47,039 --> 00:09:49,720 we're were going to go next to the blockade has 171 00:09:49,799 --> 00:09:53,279 to be discontinued or continued, and you add something onto it, 172 00:09:53,480 --> 00:09:56,759 which means actually going into not into the middle of Iran, 173 00:09:57,159 --> 00:10:00,000 but taking our carg Island and Rock Island and play 174 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:02,919 like that with our marines. Eighty second aary borders somebody 175 00:10:02,960 --> 00:10:05,840 like that. You know, I would tell the Iranians, looked, 176 00:10:05,919 --> 00:10:08,200 if there's a ship, we put them through there and 177 00:10:08,279 --> 00:10:10,720 a mind goes off, You're done, We're done with this, 178 00:10:11,039 --> 00:10:13,200 We're fed up with you or finished off. The concern 179 00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:17,080 I've got is we're negotiating still with an autocratic, theocratic 180 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:19,360 government when you know the people, like their foreign minister 181 00:10:19,399 --> 00:10:24,120 are Rachi. These are hardcore revolutionary guards and it's the 182 00:10:24,159 --> 00:10:27,360 old the younger crew that's come on board. They're still there. 183 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:31,840 They've still had been indoctrinated for over forty plus years 184 00:10:32,159 --> 00:10:35,120 of hating America and that hasn't changed. So you're dealing 185 00:10:35,159 --> 00:10:39,679 with maybe some regime adjustments, but not regime change out there. 186 00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:41,759 And I think we need to take that into consideration, 187 00:10:41,879 --> 00:10:44,320 and part of that considerations we just said, we're tired 188 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:46,159 of you guys, We're done with it. We're going to 189 00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:48,480 change the dynamics of the Middle East for the next 190 00:10:48,519 --> 00:10:51,759 thirty or forty years. We can sweep the Gulf right 191 00:10:51,799 --> 00:10:54,639 now with the mind sweepers coming in with his Forden 192 00:10:55,000 --> 00:10:58,840 in Japan, bring them down the LCS the destroyers as 193 00:10:58,960 --> 00:11:03,960 was shown, which Bill showed in a great animation there. 194 00:11:04,639 --> 00:11:06,360 But there's always a chance for one happening. You know. 195 00:11:06,399 --> 00:11:09,360 In the army, you've got to when you delay a minefield, 196 00:11:09,639 --> 00:11:12,360 you have to record that minefield, when you do with 197 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,440 the navy. In the sea, we don't know what's out there, 198 00:11:15,480 --> 00:11:17,759 and I bet you they're not disciplined enough to figure 199 00:11:17,759 --> 00:11:20,000 out where those minds are. So we don't know. And 200 00:11:20,039 --> 00:11:22,519 they're random one or two minds out there. Yep, probably 201 00:11:22,519 --> 00:11:23,159 it's going to happen. 202 00:11:23,159 --> 00:11:23,279 Speaker 7: Now. 203 00:11:23,320 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 1: He's with me on the idea that you're dealing with 204 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:31,080 a regime that are they're brutal killers, liars, cheaters. Walt 205 00:11:31,080 --> 00:11:34,080 Street Journal yesterday had a big editorial about the fact 206 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:38,120 that this group that's leading the negotiations for the Iranians 207 00:11:38,399 --> 00:11:41,879 are more hardliner than the previous group that we killed. 208 00:11:42,879 --> 00:11:45,720 So I think we're wasting our time. Just finish the 209 00:11:45,799 --> 00:11:49,720 military campaign and finish their their leadership and move on. 210 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:54,840 It's confusing, though, because the President, like I said, he 211 00:11:55,039 --> 00:11:58,799 lives in a world that he wishes was out there. 212 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,960 He kind of in a dream world about things, and 213 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:05,039 it's all very part of his you know, positive thinking 214 00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:08,240 about this is what I see, this is what I imagine, 215 00:12:08,600 --> 00:12:11,559 and if I keep seeing and imagining, it will come true. 216 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:16,320 But he's been I'll play a handful of recent audio 217 00:12:16,399 --> 00:12:19,639 clips of the president. He was talking this morning with 218 00:12:19,720 --> 00:12:24,679 Maria Bartiromo, and there's a bunch of comments about how 219 00:12:25,000 --> 00:12:30,279 we've already won. No, we haven't. We still have more 220 00:12:30,320 --> 00:12:31,080 work to do. 221 00:12:31,080 --> 00:12:33,279 Speaker 4: Do you believe the price of oil and gas will 222 00:12:33,320 --> 00:12:35,639 be lower before the midterm elections? 223 00:12:36,399 --> 00:12:38,799 Speaker 8: I hope so, I mean, I think, Shelley, it could 224 00:12:38,799 --> 00:12:40,720 be all the same or maybe a little bit higher, 225 00:12:40,799 --> 00:12:43,120 but it should be around the same. I think this 226 00:12:43,759 --> 00:12:45,080 won't be that much longer. 227 00:12:47,600 --> 00:12:51,399 Speaker 1: It's we're already seven weeks into this, so I don't 228 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:55,159 know how much longer means, and oil prices may be 229 00:12:55,279 --> 00:13:00,679 the same or maybe even higher come election day. Wow, 230 00:13:01,240 --> 00:13:04,360 and you thought maybe you could hold on. He's predicting 231 00:13:04,399 --> 00:13:06,840 that the gas prices will stay where they are, or 232 00:13:06,919 --> 00:13:07,799 possibly higher. 233 00:13:08,480 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 7: I had a divert because if I didn't do that 234 00:13:11,639 --> 00:13:14,720 right now, you would have a ran with a nuclear weapon. 235 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:17,279 And if they had a nuclear weapon, you would be 236 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,200 calling everybody over there, sir, and you don't want to 237 00:13:20,200 --> 00:13:20,399 do that. 238 00:13:20,559 --> 00:13:22,799 Speaker 1: Well, you keep saying, wa was Is this war over? 239 00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,279 Speaker 7: I think it's close to ovie. I mean I view 240 00:13:26,320 --> 00:13:29,600 it as very close to over. You know what, if 241 00:13:29,639 --> 00:13:32,279 I pulled up stakes right now, it would take them 242 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:36,519 twenty years to rebuild that country. And we're not finished. 243 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:39,080 We'll see what happens. I think they want to make 244 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:40,000 a deal very badly. 245 00:13:40,080 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 1: It counds to me like we want to make a 246 00:13:43,279 --> 00:13:46,679 deal very badly. But that's kind of a It keeps 247 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:51,200 predicting that it's almost over. We've won already, and there's 248 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:56,639 still a lot of work to do. Kareem Sanjapour is 249 00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,279 with the Carnegie Institute. 250 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,440 Speaker 3: For the first time since this war began six weeks ago. 251 00:14:03,639 --> 00:14:06,799 I think there is actually momentum towards some kind of 252 00:14:06,799 --> 00:14:10,519 a resolution. Now, it's not going to be the comprehensive 253 00:14:10,559 --> 00:14:13,240 resolution that President Trump hopeful. I think they're going to 254 00:14:13,279 --> 00:14:16,960 more narrowly focus on the nuclear issue. And what I'm 255 00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:21,399 cincate is that the most consequential debate and negotiation may 256 00:14:21,399 --> 00:14:25,200 not be between America and Iran, but within the Iranian side, 257 00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,679 between those who say the country is in such dire 258 00:14:28,759 --> 00:14:31,279 economic straits that it needs to do a deal and 259 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:34,320 those that want to continue with revolutionary defiance. You have 260 00:14:34,399 --> 00:14:38,000 a supremely rietl Haamany who has been ruling for thirty 261 00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,480 seven years, and suddenly he's killed. That opens up an 262 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,879 enormous power vacuum, and so right now people are jocking 263 00:14:43,919 --> 00:14:46,279 for power. And I do think the dividing line are 264 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:49,240 between those who say we need to continue forward with 265 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:51,960 what I call vision nineteen seventy nine, the vision of 266 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:55,519 the nineteen seventy nine revolution, death to America, death to Israel, 267 00:14:55,799 --> 00:14:58,840 versus those who say, listen, we're not going to survive 268 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:02,600 under so this level of economic duress. We need to 269 00:15:02,639 --> 00:15:04,399 do a deal with the United States. And the person 270 00:15:04,440 --> 00:15:08,399 that is emerging is the Speaker of Parliament, Mohammed Barb Kaliboff, 271 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,720 who spent twenty hours with Vice President. That's the most 272 00:15:11,799 --> 00:15:15,600 senior US level contacts with Iran since nineteen seventy nine. 273 00:15:15,519 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 1: And by some descriptions, he's one of those that are 274 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,679 more hardline than what they had before over there, which 275 00:15:22,759 --> 00:15:28,200 was pretty bad. Admiral Pazzi Miller asked about the whole 276 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:32,120 question of the blockade, which does seem to be working. 277 00:15:32,519 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 9: Well, it's been effective and I think having the impact 278 00:15:36,480 --> 00:15:39,919 that we expected that it would, which has taken away 279 00:15:40,039 --> 00:15:43,480 the regime's opportunity to make money. So, as Kareem just 280 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,039 talked about, Iran was in desperate economic straits before the 281 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:50,120 conflict started, this certainly isn't going to help that, and 282 00:15:50,159 --> 00:15:53,200 it becomes very difficult for the regime to continue to 283 00:15:53,279 --> 00:15:56,360 prosecute the war, to continue to oppress its people if 284 00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:59,720 it doesn't have an income source to be able to 285 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:03,159 do it work. I think we really learned two different 286 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:07,799 things from this activity by the regime. One is that, 287 00:16:08,519 --> 00:16:13,639 as everyone expected, we've been enormously effective and successful in 288 00:16:13,679 --> 00:16:16,320 the strikes that have been conducted thus far in the conflict. 289 00:16:16,399 --> 00:16:19,360 And so if the idea was to reduce the number 290 00:16:19,360 --> 00:16:23,759 of ballistic missiles Iran had available to it, both by 291 00:16:23,919 --> 00:16:27,600 destroying the missile storage sites and by destroying launchers. We've 292 00:16:27,600 --> 00:16:30,159 had good success in that regard. At the same time, 293 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,440 we also learn that there's a resiliency to this regime 294 00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:36,159 and we've known this. I think we knew it going 295 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:39,480 into it. But they're not going to give up easily, 296 00:16:40,159 --> 00:16:42,720 and so if they have to dig through the rubble 297 00:16:42,759 --> 00:16:46,120 to find launchers and to be able to cobble together systems, 298 00:16:46,519 --> 00:16:48,559 they're going to try to try to do that. And 299 00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,039 so some of those targets, if this war goes on 300 00:16:51,279 --> 00:16:53,559 much longer, are going to have to be revisited. 301 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:58,200 Speaker 1: So the blockade is working. It's crimping them economically. They're 302 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:02,120 already in bad economic shape, and now they're digging up 303 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:04,240 some of the areas where we bomb some of their 304 00:17:04,279 --> 00:17:09,480 missile launchers. John Bolton says, great, let them dig them 305 00:17:09,559 --> 00:17:11,519 up so we can shoot them in the pizzas. 306 00:17:11,519 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 10: Again, well, not in a way that's satisfactory to the 307 00:17:15,559 --> 00:17:17,839 United States. I do think Trump has wanted out of 308 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:20,319 this for quite some time. It's palpable and the way 309 00:17:20,920 --> 00:17:23,680 he discusses it, he just can't figure out how to 310 00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:25,880 do it in a way that he can declare victory 311 00:17:26,400 --> 00:17:28,640 with a straight face. I don't think in the near 312 00:17:28,759 --> 00:17:33,920 term you can declare victory until we have militarily cleared 313 00:17:33,920 --> 00:17:37,160 the Strait of Hormuz such that Gulf Arab oil can 314 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:39,160 get out. I think it's the right thing to do 315 00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:43,960 to blockade ships going to and from Iran. But I 316 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,480 think what's critical to demonstrate that Iran is not the 317 00:17:47,519 --> 00:17:50,079 hedgehm on in the Gulf is that we have to 318 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:53,160 make it safe for the other oil producers to get 319 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:55,880 their oil out, which will have a material impact, I 320 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:59,519 think on the global economy, and while shutting Iran's exports 321 00:17:59,559 --> 00:18:03,000 down certainly have a material effect on their economy too. 322 00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:03,480 Speaker 6: Well. 323 00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:06,319 Speaker 1: About the missile launchers that they're digging up, it just 324 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,319 show that they are resilient and they're not going to 325 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,720 give up easily. But again Bolton says, let them do it. 326 00:18:13,039 --> 00:18:14,799 Speaker 10: Well, I think that's what they're certainly trying to do. 327 00:18:14,839 --> 00:18:17,480 I mean, we've got intelligence reports that indicate that the 328 00:18:17,519 --> 00:18:22,119 administration's claims of success, particularly against missile launchers, may have 329 00:18:22,160 --> 00:18:25,400 been overly optimistic. The silver lining here is let them 330 00:18:25,440 --> 00:18:27,160 dig them out, let them bring them out. I assume 331 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,319 we're going to be watching all these very carefully. As 332 00:18:29,319 --> 00:18:31,200 they bring them out, we destroy them, then we can 333 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:35,839 close the tunnels. Again, this is a question that requires 334 00:18:35,960 --> 00:18:38,880 resolve on the part of the president. Now, whether he 335 00:18:38,960 --> 00:18:41,960 thought about that in advance or not is highly unclear, 336 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,079 but it's a mistake at this point to look for 337 00:18:46,119 --> 00:18:48,240 an easy way out. I think the government of Iran 338 00:18:48,319 --> 00:18:50,960 has been badly damaged. I don't buy the argument that 339 00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:55,119 the regime is still intact, is still functioning. I think 340 00:18:55,160 --> 00:18:59,200 it's clearly been sent back. President Pozeshkian was quoted in 341 00:18:59,680 --> 00:19:01,680 the press yes today is saying it would take twelve 342 00:19:01,799 --> 00:19:05,200 years to get Iran's economy back to the point where 343 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,599 it was on February the twenty eighth, And where it 344 00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,039 was on February the twenty eighth was in the cellar. 345 00:19:10,519 --> 00:19:13,799 So we've had enormous impact and this is not the 346 00:19:13,839 --> 00:19:15,359 time to pull back again. 347 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 1: I fully agree. This is not that we're right on 348 00:19:17,839 --> 00:19:22,880 the precipice of victory, and don't stop now, don't even 349 00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,319 bother with negotiations now, just go ahead and wipe out 350 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:31,160 the leadership and move on. One other guy who keeps 351 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,240 a close eye on everything in Iran, and that is 352 00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,720 Barack revealed with Axios. 353 00:19:37,039 --> 00:19:41,319 Speaker 5: Trump Guniztation knows that if it wants a deal with Iran, 354 00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,759 there will have to be some sort of a regional component, 355 00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:49,839 and the trumpt guniztation wants any ceased firing Lebanon not 356 00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:54,480 to be connected to an Iranian dictation or demand or pressure, 357 00:19:54,759 --> 00:19:58,279 but to be something that is a result of direct 358 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:04,039 Israeli Lebanese negotiations. So I think the Trump nisation's interest 359 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,599 is to have this sea is fire even before it 360 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,079 has any kind of deal with Iran. That's number one. 361 00:20:11,160 --> 00:20:15,559 Number two for now. A meeting, a second meeting between 362 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:21,519 Vice President Vance and the US negotiation team and Speaker 363 00:20:21,519 --> 00:20:25,200 of Iranian Parliament Kalibaf and his negotiation team hasn't been 364 00:20:25,240 --> 00:20:28,759 scheduled yet, it could be scheduled. I think when Trump 365 00:20:28,839 --> 00:20:32,039 said this morning that it might happen in the next 366 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:33,960 two days, I think it's clear that it's not going 367 00:20:34,039 --> 00:20:36,480 to happen in the next days. One day is over 368 00:20:36,799 --> 00:20:39,960 and it's a twenty hour flight to Pakistan, so doesn't 369 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,000 seem to me that anything will happen in the next 370 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:45,680 twenty four hours. But we have until April twenty first 371 00:20:45,880 --> 00:20:48,839 to do another round of negotiations and try to get 372 00:20:48,880 --> 00:20:52,400 a deal. I'm not sure it's enough time. But I 373 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:55,480 also don't get the impression that President Trump has a 374 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,640 lot of appetite to extend the Seas final. 375 00:20:58,079 --> 00:21:00,880 Speaker 1: And what we're hearing this afternoon is that he doesn't 376 00:21:00,920 --> 00:21:04,319 want to extend the ceasefire. He's putting pressure on to 377 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,480 try to come to some sort of fruition before April 378 00:21:07,559 --> 00:21:10,720 twenty first. That by the way, let me look at 379 00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:15,000 my calendar. I think it's next, yes, next Tuesday, so 380 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:18,279 it's coming up quickly, and I wouldn't be a bit 381 00:21:18,319 --> 00:21:20,400 surprised if they don't kick the can down the road 382 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,759 and move the ceasefire beyond. But right now it's they're 383 00:21:23,799 --> 00:21:28,319 still holding on for the ceasefire to end April twenty first, 384 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:32,240 which is Tuesday. Now. In the meantime, if the blockade 385 00:21:32,319 --> 00:21:36,000 is holding, give it a chance, give it a chance 386 00:21:36,039 --> 00:21:38,920 to If they're losing, I've seen all the way from 387 00:21:39,079 --> 00:21:42,400 hundreds of millions to billions a day that Iran is 388 00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:46,359 losing because of the blockade, well then let's keep it 389 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:50,960 going until they squeal. Let's until somebody yells uncle, let's 390 00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:57,759 go ahead and keep the blockade going. And and and meantime, 391 00:21:57,799 --> 00:22:01,680 you could do that while the ceasefire is is in effect, 392 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,160 but even when the ceasefire is no longer in effect. 393 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,839 I don't know why we stopped the ceasefire to talk, 394 00:22:08,319 --> 00:22:12,480 but we did so again. Mark your calendars for next Tuesday. 395 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,279 My bet is that they will push the ceasefire past 396 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:20,000 that because they won't have an agreement by that time. Meantime, 397 00:22:20,079 --> 00:22:24,720 JD Vance found himself in a little bit of a pickle, 398 00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,519 you know. So they said, okay, jd you go talk 399 00:22:28,599 --> 00:22:31,000 to the Iranians and come up with a deal. And 400 00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:33,480 he came back from Pakistan did not have a deal. 401 00:22:34,119 --> 00:22:39,960 And he also went to Hungary to a campaign for Orbon, 402 00:22:41,599 --> 00:22:45,359 who's been the head of Hungary for sixteen years. It 403 00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:49,160 is during Orbond's leadership, and a lot of people are going, well, 404 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,880 he's the big conservative guy, He's like Trump and everything else. 405 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:55,519 That doesn't matter. The point is is that of all 406 00:22:55,599 --> 00:23:00,079 the European Union nations, Hungary is by far the porous. 407 00:23:00,759 --> 00:23:05,079 It is broke so under Orbon's leadership, the people are 408 00:23:05,119 --> 00:23:08,720 living in a country with a very poor economy and 409 00:23:08,759 --> 00:23:14,079 they're also financially being pressured. So I get why people 410 00:23:14,119 --> 00:23:18,880 threw Orbon out, but did why did JD Vance go 411 00:23:20,039 --> 00:23:25,039 to I don't know, interfere in Hungary's elections. We yell 412 00:23:25,079 --> 00:23:29,519 about other countries interfering in our elections. Why did they 413 00:23:29,559 --> 00:23:34,160 send jd Vance to Hungary to campaign for Orbon who 414 00:23:34,200 --> 00:23:36,759 has been way behind in the polls for a long 415 00:23:36,799 --> 00:23:40,000 long time, so they keep setting him up for all 416 00:23:40,039 --> 00:23:43,960 these these things that turn out not to be winners. 417 00:23:44,559 --> 00:23:48,160 And now he went last night to the University of 418 00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:53,680 Georgia TPUSA, Turning Point USA had a big event there 419 00:23:53,759 --> 00:23:57,960 last night and they had it at a big auditorium 420 00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:02,039 at the University of Georgia and the place was mostly empty. 421 00:24:02,839 --> 00:24:06,759 There was a very small group of people there. And 422 00:24:06,839 --> 00:24:11,079 not only did Jade Vance have to basically sing and 423 00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,559 dance to the crowd that was there, it was very 424 00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:19,799 very small. But in addition to that, Erica Kirk, the 425 00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:25,200 widow of Charlie Kirk, she did not show up, and 426 00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,079 they said she did not show up because of the 427 00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,720 fact that there were threats that had been made against her. 428 00:24:31,759 --> 00:24:37,960 Here's Andrew Colvert, who is kind of the guy operating TPUSA. 429 00:24:39,279 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean it was a really unfortunate experience for 430 00:24:42,519 --> 00:24:45,400 me too, just to have to watch that very difficult 431 00:24:45,400 --> 00:24:48,119 decision get made, which I think is the first time 432 00:24:48,200 --> 00:24:51,519 that we've ever had to make that decision in Turning 433 00:24:51,559 --> 00:24:56,160 Point history. But everything that happened with Charlie, obviously his assassination, 434 00:24:56,519 --> 00:25:00,319 were still, you know, grieving that, and you saw what 435 00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:04,119 happened with Savanna Hernandez, one of our TPOSA frontlines reporters 436 00:25:04,279 --> 00:25:08,720 in Minneapolis. And to see the security team, you know, 437 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:12,839 tell us we cannot guarantee your safety, we recommend that 438 00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:16,440 you don't do this was a really chilling moment for 439 00:25:16,519 --> 00:25:18,799 all of us to kind of have to internalize and 440 00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,839 experience and realize that Erica Kirk is you know, her 441 00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,440 children are one parent away from being orphans, and sometimes 442 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:30,720 you just have to say, listen, right now, what's most 443 00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:33,759 important is your safety, is your security and your children, 444 00:25:33,839 --> 00:25:37,480 your family. Let your team handle this, Let us do 445 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:40,200 what we can do. And so, you know, I obviously 446 00:25:40,319 --> 00:25:42,759 was horrified at the reason why, but I was honored 447 00:25:42,799 --> 00:25:45,480 to stand in and pinch Hint for Erica last night, 448 00:25:45,960 --> 00:25:49,440 and I was grateful for the Vice president that we 449 00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,920 didn't have to ultimately cancel the entire event. He was 450 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:54,200 willing to do it with me, and it was very gracious. 451 00:25:55,559 --> 00:25:59,039 The problem they have is Erica Kirk is going to 452 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:02,640 be a lightning rod. If you want to go have 453 00:26:02,759 --> 00:26:05,400 a big event in stadiums, there's always going to be 454 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,559 a security risk. So if there's always going to be 455 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,920 a security risk, is she ever going to go to 456 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,279 any of these events ever again? And the fact that 457 00:26:14,319 --> 00:26:16,960 she bailed on last night? Is that why the crowd 458 00:26:17,039 --> 00:26:19,000 was so small. 459 00:26:19,480 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: Here's JD. Evans talking about it. I love Erica and 460 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:23,960 I know that she did get some threats. 461 00:26:24,039 --> 00:26:25,680 Speaker 11: I was a little worried that we were going to 462 00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:28,279 have to cancel the event because Erica was not going 463 00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:30,079 to come, and she was very worried about it. 464 00:26:30,279 --> 00:26:33,519 Speaker 1: Yeah, but what's ironic is the Vice President of the 465 00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:38,720 United States went, and obviously the Secret Service felt comfortable 466 00:26:38,839 --> 00:26:42,960 enough to have him go. So the whole thing, I listen, 467 00:26:43,079 --> 00:26:50,599 I'm my observation is is that without Charlie Kirk, TPUSA 468 00:26:51,519 --> 00:26:54,839 is not going to thrive like it was when he 469 00:26:55,039 --> 00:26:59,440 was around. When he was alive, it was his thing, 470 00:27:00,119 --> 00:27:06,519 his program, his personality, his voice that made that whole 471 00:27:06,559 --> 00:27:11,359 thing go. So as much as I feel bad about 472 00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:16,759 Erica and the family and the staff, I think their 473 00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:20,480 months or years are are very very limited if she 474 00:27:20,799 --> 00:27:23,799 if she can't go to these events, then this thing's 475 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:27,559 going to die off faster than I thought. And back 476 00:27:27,799 --> 00:27:32,200 back to JD Vance for a moment. He has converted 477 00:27:32,279 --> 00:27:36,279 to Catholicism a few years ago, and he has a 478 00:27:36,279 --> 00:27:40,960 book coming out very soon about his conversion to Catholicism. 479 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:49,279 In the middle of day four of the President griping 480 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:53,640 about the Pope, and the Pope's off in Africa doing 481 00:27:53,759 --> 00:27:59,279 some work in Africa with people in that country, he 482 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:04,720 was in Algier. In any case, what Jdi Vance said 483 00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:10,960 was that the Pope should be careful when talking about theology. 484 00:28:11,960 --> 00:28:16,519 And I'm thinking, man, I'm certainly not in the position 485 00:28:16,599 --> 00:28:19,880 to tell the Pope about what to say regarding theology. 486 00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:24,160 The Pope is kind of the number one head voice 487 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:28,440 of the theological reasons behind the Catholic Church. And so 488 00:28:28,599 --> 00:28:32,599 if Jedie Vance thinks that he's converted to Catholicism, he 489 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,279 might have skipped over the part about how important the 490 00:28:35,319 --> 00:28:39,599 Pope's words are when it comes to things like theology. 491 00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,000 So I mean, it's just, I mean, it's a long 492 00:28:42,039 --> 00:28:46,400 time between twenty twenty eight, but already people are going, man, 493 00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:50,839 the Catholic vote is looking and going, what you're lecturing 494 00:28:51,079 --> 00:28:54,759 the Pope about how to speak about theology, and the 495 00:28:54,799 --> 00:28:59,000 President is lecturing the Pope every day about something regarding 496 00:28:59,319 --> 00:29:01,480 He doesn't like the fact that the Pope is for peace, 497 00:29:02,079 --> 00:29:04,440 and he's making it very clear he's not for war. 498 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,079 So that battle goes on, and it's not one to pick. 499 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:11,640 You just don't as a politician. You just don't want 500 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:14,200 to pick a fight with the Pope. The Pope is 501 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:17,000 not a politician, and I think the President thinks he is. 502 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:20,480 On One of the other big stories this week, obviously, 503 00:29:20,559 --> 00:29:25,200 is Eric Walwell, and that story has died down very 504 00:29:25,279 --> 00:29:28,359 much today because yesterday another woman came out and we 505 00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:31,880 all had the tape of her interview. But the whole 506 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:38,039 business about women in the workplace and the me too generation, 507 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,799 I've seen a number of women in the media having 508 00:29:42,920 --> 00:29:49,519 panel discussions with other women about Eric Walwell and about 509 00:29:50,079 --> 00:29:54,480 men in the workplace and about me too. And I 510 00:29:54,640 --> 00:30:01,119 find it interesting. But men have been chasing women around 511 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:05,240 since the caveman days. But today we have rules and 512 00:30:05,279 --> 00:30:08,440 we have laws that, especially in the workplace, on what 513 00:30:08,519 --> 00:30:11,559 you can and cannot do. But some men I don't 514 00:30:11,559 --> 00:30:14,119 care if these women go I don't understand. I don't 515 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,000 understand it either. But there are some men that just 516 00:30:17,279 --> 00:30:21,200 don't care, and they are going to try to pursue 517 00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:24,960 their sexual desires one way or the other. They don't 518 00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,839 care what the rules say. Rina Shaw is a young 519 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,599 political strategist, commentator Republican. Her job is to go out 520 00:30:35,079 --> 00:30:37,960 and try and reach out to various groups that are 521 00:30:37,960 --> 00:30:41,680 not traditionally Republican. And she was asked about this whole 522 00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:46,359 business about political men going after women. 523 00:30:47,079 --> 00:30:49,599 Speaker 12: I've been vocal about real change like this because I've 524 00:30:49,759 --> 00:30:52,480 lived this culture for nearly two decades on Capitol Hill. 525 00:30:52,759 --> 00:30:55,160 I started off in a junior role and got to 526 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,680 the highest senior, most staff rules, and two personal offices 527 00:30:58,720 --> 00:31:00,839 of Republican members of Congress. And I can tell you 528 00:31:00,880 --> 00:31:04,640 just flat out no, no, no. Eric Stalwell's attorney tonight 529 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,559 is not representing him well. She is painting this as 530 00:31:07,599 --> 00:31:10,200 some kind of partisan takedown and as people who do 531 00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:14,039 not want to do process. This is not a partisan takedown. 532 00:31:14,319 --> 00:31:18,400 Women with no political ties and deep insiders alike are 533 00:31:18,440 --> 00:31:22,279 describing the same experiences here. And I personally here am 534 00:31:22,319 --> 00:31:26,119 speaking from pattern recognition, not from the place of believe 535 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,839 all women. But you asked me about what I think 536 00:31:28,880 --> 00:31:31,759 about Swalwell, and I think what no one is really 537 00:31:31,799 --> 00:31:34,640 saying here is that Eric Swalwell is a sex addict. 538 00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,119 He knew what he was doing, but he didn't care. 539 00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:41,359 He became a party darling very early. I remember his predecessor, 540 00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:44,400 former Congressman Stark, So I was there a long time 541 00:31:44,480 --> 00:31:46,960 and I watched it all. And many of us have 542 00:31:47,559 --> 00:31:51,759 long known about his extramarital endeavors and the unsolicited nudes. 543 00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,400 But what happened is that it crossed a much darker 544 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,680 line when a former staffer alleged that he raped her 545 00:31:57,880 --> 00:32:01,960 while she was too intoxicated to consent. So let's get 546 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:05,400 this clear. When a member propositions or get sexually involved 547 00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,960 with a subordinate like a staffer or an intern, that 548 00:32:08,079 --> 00:32:12,079 is a clear Title seven violation illegal workplace harassment, because 549 00:32:12,079 --> 00:32:16,519 the power dynamic is completely skewed. Your livelihood depends on 550 00:32:16,599 --> 00:32:19,480 that boss, and people are not realizing that back when 551 00:32:19,519 --> 00:32:22,000 I was there at least, and I don't think it's changed. 552 00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:25,599 Many of these personal offices, the vast majority have something 553 00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,599 called at will employment. If something happens, you're getting booted, 554 00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:30,960 not the member of Congress. 555 00:32:31,759 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 1: And that's been going on for as long as I 556 00:32:33,799 --> 00:32:37,559 can remember in offices as well, not Congress, but just 557 00:32:37,599 --> 00:32:40,640 in business offices. I've seen it. You've seen it, and 558 00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,759 I think every woman out there can testify to the 559 00:32:42,759 --> 00:32:45,160 fact that they had not only seen it, but also 560 00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,079 maybe experienced that kind of pressure that's going on. So 561 00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,200 Swilwell has got lawyers jumping up and down trying to 562 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,799 protect him, but he's the investigations are underway. So I'm 563 00:32:56,839 --> 00:33:01,039 sure when the investigation at the DA in Manhattan and 564 00:33:01,119 --> 00:33:06,200 also the La County Sheriff's Department will get more information 565 00:33:06,440 --> 00:33:09,880 on him, then you want to get some phone calls 566 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:13,599 in today. Let's start on this tax day with our 567 00:33:13,599 --> 00:33:19,559 buddy Eric. He's all depressed because he's doing his taxes. 568 00:33:19,960 --> 00:33:24,599 Speaker 13: Good evening in town. This is me, Eric, How are you. Oh, 569 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,359 I'm so depressed. Gosh, I gotta finish my taxes and 570 00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:32,000 I'm just barely making it. I mean, I'm so like, 571 00:33:32,519 --> 00:33:37,200 just just it's just hard when you're depressed. You know, 572 00:33:37,359 --> 00:33:40,480 it's just hard to concentrate. You stop doing and there's 573 00:33:40,519 --> 00:33:44,839 something it's just you know, hard to focus. But anyway, 574 00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:49,000 I'm doing my best. I imported all the data and 575 00:33:49,079 --> 00:33:53,519 I all the forums and I entered data. I didn't 576 00:33:53,599 --> 00:33:55,920 check it, but it's all in there. I just need 577 00:33:55,960 --> 00:34:01,319 to run, you know, But anyway, I'll finish it some how, hopefully. 578 00:34:01,759 --> 00:34:06,000 Speaker 1: My poor guy, he's not Eric, You're not a low 579 00:34:06,079 --> 00:34:08,599 There's a lot of people that are depressed as they're 580 00:34:08,639 --> 00:34:12,960 filling out their tax forms. And here's a guy who 581 00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,480 I didn't think there was any confusion about it, but 582 00:34:16,519 --> 00:34:19,320 there might be. He's worried about the fact that people 583 00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:23,719 don't know that the Strait of Horror Moves is in 584 00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:25,519 international waterways. 585 00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:30,159 Speaker 8: Oh ho, my name is sl better known as Sea Lawyer. 586 00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:36,480 Subject line the Straits of her Moos. To my knowledge, 587 00:34:36,599 --> 00:34:40,280 you and no one else is reporting that the Straits 588 00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:43,800 of her Moose is under the law of the Seat, 589 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:49,000 the International Maritimes law through the UN Security Council. It's 590 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:53,039 something to that effect. In other words, people probably think, 591 00:34:53,159 --> 00:34:55,880 or I did, that Iran owned a thing because it's 592 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:59,559 mining as in the way it's carrying on. Iran doesn't 593 00:34:59,599 --> 00:35:02,239 own it. I think to you people, how to research 594 00:35:02,320 --> 00:35:05,519 it and give the history of the Straits of her Moves, 595 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:10,039 and that it is supposedly supposed to be shared by 596 00:35:10,119 --> 00:35:16,000 many many countries. Your I'd say regular listener doesn't realize this, 597 00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:22,000 and uh, to my knowledge, no one stating that fact. 598 00:35:22,079 --> 00:35:24,880 They're just talking about this. Ain't the fact that the 599 00:35:24,920 --> 00:35:28,920 Iranians have killed so many civilians in the last months 600 00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:32,559 for demonstrating. But they're not saying who is in charge 601 00:35:32,559 --> 00:35:35,880 of the Straits of her Moose or about any international 602 00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:36,519 law of it. 603 00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:39,719 Speaker 1: Well, he maybe right. I just assumed that most people 604 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:42,800 knew that the Strait of her Moves was international waterways. 605 00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,440 But for those of you who did not know that, 606 00:35:45,559 --> 00:35:49,519 it does not belong to any country. It's the international waterways. 607 00:35:49,519 --> 00:35:53,199 That's why we are upset about them blockading it. So 608 00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:56,599 what are we doing. We're blockading it so that they 609 00:35:56,639 --> 00:35:59,800 can't get any money from all the oil the good 610 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:03,559 that ships through there. Let's see, here's somebody who is 611 00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,159 I I just going to take a wild guess. I 612 00:36:06,159 --> 00:36:08,159 don't think he likes President Trump. 613 00:36:08,400 --> 00:36:10,559 Speaker 14: Yeah, I just want to say, you guys talk so 614 00:36:10,639 --> 00:36:14,599 much about Solwell and what he did and say nothing 615 00:36:15,079 --> 00:36:20,840 about Donald Trump. Talk about voter don't know whether it's 616 00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:23,960 Democratic or Republican voter FORUD and I bet you as 617 00:36:23,960 --> 00:36:28,440 a Republican and the things that he's doing is putting 618 00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:35,320 out here is just absolutely ridiculous. The only people that's 619 00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:41,519 buying it is hagcore Republicans and very dumb people. The 620 00:36:41,559 --> 00:36:46,239 rest of us know it's just Trump times too. 621 00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:48,320 Speaker 1: I think I was right. I don't think he likes 622 00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,480 President Trump, but he did win the election. More people 623 00:36:51,559 --> 00:36:57,639 voted for him than Commelon. But no, you can disagree 624 00:36:57,679 --> 00:37:01,280 with him, that's fine. I think we did talk extensively 625 00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:04,840 about all of his warts and the fact that he's 626 00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,159 had a reputation as a playboy from his days and 627 00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:11,679 developer of New York City, and all the women that 628 00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:13,840 have accused him of things. I think those have been 629 00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:17,440 pretty well reported. They were more than reported. They were 630 00:37:17,519 --> 00:37:21,039 extensively talked about. So I know you want to keep 631 00:37:21,039 --> 00:37:25,639 that going. But right now, Eric Swalwell seems to have 632 00:37:25,679 --> 00:37:29,400 grabbed the spotlight on all of that. As far as 633 00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:33,599 Wall Street goes, it turned out to be not much. 634 00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:37,400 We started positive with the Dow today, but that did 635 00:37:37,480 --> 00:37:40,280 last long. We finished with the Dow down seventy two 636 00:37:41,559 --> 00:37:44,000 to That sounds pretty tame compared to what we've been 637 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:47,199 through lately. The Dow at forty eight four sixty three, 638 00:37:47,920 --> 00:37:52,800 the S and P up fifty five, the Nasdac continues 639 00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,280 its winning way. It's on a long streak. I think 640 00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:59,480 this is day eleven, up three hundred and seventy six. 641 00:38:00,519 --> 00:38:03,079 The price of gold fell thirty six dollars down to 642 00:38:03,119 --> 00:38:08,760 four thousand and eight fourteen, and oil again it stayed 643 00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:10,800 pretty close to home. Up, a little down, a little 644 00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:15,880 finished up ten cents to ninety one dollars and some change. 645 00:38:16,280 --> 00:38:19,360 That's it for today. We will take a short break 646 00:38:19,639 --> 00:38:22,320 and be back again tomorrow, and I certainly hoped to 647 00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:23,159 see you then.