Speaker 1: NHL Best Bets for Thursday, December eighteenth.
Speaker 2: Welcome to Puck Time on wager Talk TV.
Speaker 1: We've got sides totals, props, team totals, thoughts from myself,
Andrew McGinnis, Carme and Bianco and the pres back with
us today on the show. Looking forward to a good
one with We had a quieter day on Wednesday, but
a much busier day on a Thursday. I am not
happy coming into today. I pretty much am taking the
day off of NHL plays because I need to heat
up again. After I had a good run, I cooled
way off again. So I just have an NFL playoff.
But I'm gonna talk it out with the boys, see
what they think about today's slate, and I'll do what
they call what paper trading and just kind of see
how I'm feeling for today's slate. Carm Good morning, brother,
How are you.
Speaker 3: I'm doing great? Been a long early day from me already. Man.
I've been up to put a ton of work, drop
my wife off at work. I barely slowed down when
I let her out of the vehicle, so that was
the good thing because I had to get back to
the office and get some stuff done. But it's the
return of the present today. He is going to I
mix things up on him. We always love having the
pres on to talk about the Toronto maple leafs. I
threw the Columbus Minnesota game at him instead, because we
already know he likes the under likely in the Toronto
and Washington game. Who knows, But what that said, he's
going to do that one. Andrew and I are going
to break down Edmonton and Boston, Pittsburgh and Ottawa a
couple of really weird lines and we'll discuss those ones
as well too, saying game parlay if Andrew has one.
If he doesn't, we will go to the pod play
and look to see if we can hit another pod winner.
But thank you to everyone in the who's there in
the chat watching today's show. Hit that like button and
the subscribe button if you haven't already done. So it
is a Thursday and we need to get going. Let's
bring in the press back from what can only be
described as a fantastic ski vacation press.
Speaker 4: Yes, sir, nice to be here, and I hope you
guys are having a good Thursday, awesome ski trip.
Speaker 5: But now we're going into trip season.
Speaker 4: I'm off to Florida beginning of January for a couple
of weeks, actually going to go downstay with my parents
and play at the seminole. There's a couple of there's
an old WPT series going down. So what does that
kill two birds with one stone situation?
Speaker 3: Yes, as as a bird owner, I'd rather use a
different terminology like hit hit two jackpots with one coin.
I don't know something like that with one ticket. Let's
let's not be beating up in killing birds if that's
okay with you. Uh. Press.
Speaker 1: And one of my girlfriend's like closest friends is like
a diehard like she has she owns several horses. I
was like, I'm just so hungry I can eat a
horse right now. She just like looks at me. She's
like obsessed with horses. I'm just like my bad wrong place,
wrong time to use that.
Speaker 3: Let me ask you a question, you guys have got
Have you guys ever eaten horse? Seriously serious question?
Speaker 2: No.
Speaker 3: Growing up growing up as a kid, and Italians will
tell you this, growing up as kids, if we were sick,
our parents went the Italian meat market and got horse cutlets.
They actually had horse cutlets because they're high in iron,
and it was supposed to help us out. So when
I say I'm so hungry I could eat a horse,
I have eaten a horse. I wish I wish I'd
eating some of the ones I've bet on in my
life that have lost me just tons and tons of money.
Speaker 4: But remember this, Remember when people used to say, I'm
so hungry, I could eat the cat.
Speaker 5: No, oh, what was the other term for a cat?
I can't remember.
Speaker 2: I know where you're doing.
Speaker 3: What is wrong with your beard?
Speaker 5: A lot?
Speaker 4: Hey Hank, good morning boys, pres on hockey show again.
Speaker 5: I love it.
Speaker 3: Okay, all right, talk to you about Columbus and the
Minnesota suddenly Minnesota Hot, Minnesota Wild with Hughes.
Speaker 5: Yeah, interesting trade.
Speaker 4: I guess they they thought, you know, we'll take Quinn
Hughes as a rental player for a little while because
he ain't staying in Minnesota.
Speaker 5: Car that you can take to the bank.
Speaker 4: Look, I love that I'm doing this game, and I'm
going to stick to the strategy every time I come
on here, I tell you guys to bet the under
and whatever game is thrown at me. And this is
one of those. Yeah, bring it on. This is the
Minnesota Wild. We had a four percent play on the
Minnesota Wild under against Washington on Tuesday. Me and my
clients cash that one. It was five dollars Tuesday. A
ton of you guys purchased that play and while it
went under, five nothing was the final score. This Minnesota
team is playing to the under almost every night. Two
seven and one to the under in their last ten games. Yeah,
they went over against Boston, but they kept Boston down.
They've allowed no more than two goals in any game
in their last five zero two two, two and one.
And it's not like this team is playing you know,
teams that can't score Boston, Ottawa, Dallas, Seattle, Edmonton. They
shout Edmonton out in Edmonton one nothing, one of Edmonton's
only one of two losses Edmonton is had of.
Speaker 5: The last few weeks.
Speaker 4: So this team, from a defensive perspective is lights out.
They're getting buying from everybody up and down that lineup.
Now they got Quinn Hughes, they got to feel really
good about themselves. But what this team is is an
under team. This is a team that wants to play
to the under. They're thirteen nineteen and two to the
under on the ear.
Speaker 5: Now I know.
Speaker 4: Columbus is a team that is playing to the over,
albeit slightly, sixteen fifteen and two to the over, and
they went over in their last game four to three
against the Anaheim Ducks. And this team is allowing goals,
that's why they're going over so often. They allowed Anaheim three,
Vegas three, Ottawa six, Carolina or Florida put up seven
Detroit five.
Speaker 5: Yeah, horrible defensive.
Speaker 4: Unit in Columbus, But that's okay because Minnesota is not
a team that is looking to light it up. Sure
they can or a five up, but they're a team
that wants to play slow. They want to grind them out,
and it matches nicely against the Columbus team that can't
play deepense. What we do know is Columbus is struggling
to score. Yeah, they put up four on Anaheim, but
this is a team that regularly could put up two
goals or less.
Speaker 5: I don't want to overthink this.
Speaker 4: I want to keep riding the same under with Minnesota
until it stops.
Speaker 5: Now.
Speaker 4: Obviously they're going to be games along the way that
go over, but hey, give me two out of three
under every time I'm in So yeah, let's not overthink this.
Speaker 5: Scarm Let's stick with the under all.
Speaker 3: Right, there you have it, guys, Columbus and Minnesota courtesy
of the pres What is that on your on your hat?
There is that a gorilla? I can't really see it.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it says boss because I came on with the
two of you.
Speaker 3: One quick question on this game, just a follow up
one of my teddy follow ups for you and you're
used to these ones. The question here is does it
when you look at Minnesota they're playing extremely well right now?
Five wins? This is you know, in essence what it
is is it's a non conference game. It doesn't They
still want the points. They still want to win, they
want to keep that streak going. But they got two
big games on Saturday and Sunday against the Edmonton Oiters
and Colorado Avalanche. And that's the measuring stick for this
Minnesota team. Do you look, you know Marco used to
use that Fat and Sassy or the sandwich game. Do
you like to look at this game and think, uh,
maybe Minnesota takes a step backwards in this game, or
maybe they're right for the picking that could happen and
still stay under the total.
Speaker 4: Oh thank you for explaining that to me, Carl, So
Columbus can win and it's still stay under Just to clarify, yes, okay, yes,
five wins in a row, karb with with this Minnesota
Wild team, Columbus five losses in a row, and then
they won an overtime against Anaheim. So if I'm looking
at the analytics for Columbus specifically, I'm seeing a team
that was out shot a lot in their losing street.
Then they out shot Vegas thirty to twenty six, lost
that game by one. Then they took Anaheim to overtime.
So I'm seeing a team's rhythm change. So Columbus had
a five game losing street. They played really really well
against Vegas, they played well against Anaheim. They're coming out
of their funk. So I would say this is a
good spot to bet Columbus now. As of betting against Minnesotah, yeah, man,
I mean, they played as perfect the game as you
can play against Washington and another monster against Boston. With
that said, they did allow thirty six against Ottawa thirty
one against Minnesota.
Speaker 5: I think they buckled down defensively. But yeah, I think
that this is this.
Speaker 4: Is the right So me, I wouldn't bet Columbus because
I can't. It's not the right spot to bet against Minnesota,
but it's definitely the right spot to bet on Columbus.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and Andrew, you know both these goalies right now
playing phenomenal. Walstead is just he's a wall. But Jack
Greaves is I think has stamped himself as the number
one goalie right now in Columbus Elvis obviously, the other
one being Elvis Mrs Lincoln's. It's Jack Greave's job to
lose there. So we'll see what happens tonight. Should be
a good one regardless. So pres, what do you got
to promote? Because I know you have a monster weekend
coming up in.
Speaker 4: Sports, I actually do, I have a bunch to promote,
so guys please bear with me. So last time I
came on, I begged you guys to play a play
of mine in one I'm doing the same today.
Speaker 5: Guys.
Speaker 4: I got a four percent and NHL total today I'm
going with five in a row in these plays. I'm
also I'm also absolutely rolling in totals across the board.
I'm on a seventeen and seven running them. I'm on
a seven and three running them in NHL. This is
an absolute beast of a play. And I have a
great play in the NFL tonight as well, and I'm
on a.
Speaker 5: I'm rolling in the NFL. Guys like, oh my god.
Speaker 4: I had a five week period where I couldn't get going.
Now my NFL, I'm on a. My total six and
two and nine and three run, my actual NFL all
bets thirteen and five, seven, eight and seven run. I've
won seven of my last nine NFL cards. So I
got a big play in NFL tonight. I got a
huge must not misplay in NHL. But I have a
five percent up for Sunday, Carl, and I got a
promo to give out on the show. It's press ten
p R e Z or Z ten. You get ten
dollars off of my five percent for Sunday. I won
my five percent last Sunday.
Speaker 5: It was easy. I'm rolling in.
Speaker 4: These big plays. So yeah, I'm really excited about what's
going on over the next few days. And of course
foot ball season is starting.
Speaker 2: Is it Z or is it Z?
Speaker 5: Well?
Speaker 4: I mean, so it's interesting question, Carmen, And the bottom
line is is that it's both.
Speaker 5: And I'll tell you why it's both.
Speaker 4: Because the mother and father of the letter. The mother
and father of the letter an English person from the England,
because it's English, named it Z. So the actual parental
guidance said Z, which means it's actually However, Americans are
always right on everything, no matter what, so it's clearly Z.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I didn't know anywhere else existed in the
world besides America.
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, are there other countries?
Speaker 5: There are?
Speaker 4: No, metric does not exist. So it is clearly both
ZED and Z because the mother and father named it ZED.
But Americans are never wrong.
Speaker 3: You know what, I'm going to go with it. It
it's Z instead of Z because I would never I
would never call into a radio station and request this
song by the z Z Top.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well I would never request a song by Led Zeppelin.
Speaker 1: But hey, think about this when I when a kid,
like a young baby, learning their ABC's to friend, Dan said.
Speaker 4: Well, so to me it to me the way it's
like imperial is a practical joke, right. The older generation
in America were like, hmm, the whole world is changing
to tens, you know, ten one hundred, one thousand.
Speaker 5: That seems so easy.
Speaker 4: Let's not do that and let's stick to I don't
know what, and then the next generation will you know,
be stuck with I don't know where or how or who? Why?
And yeah, So they played that practical joke. Then they
thought to themselves, well, the phone has been recently invented.
Let's see we could rhyme another letter with E, so
so that when we explain zebra we say Z because
you know Z.
Speaker 5: And E and G and on and on and on
this we need another rhyming letter with E. So that's
the problem.
Speaker 1: There's probably a lot of people listening to this right
now that didn't even know what Z was.
Speaker 2: So I guess door metric nor metric.
Speaker 3: Yes, those are the A, B, z's.
Speaker 4: What happened here, guys, we we we went off the rails.
Speaker 5: I'm glad to be back.
Speaker 3: It's good to have you back, man, uh, and we
will have you on some further.
Speaker 5: This guy gets, of course, so bad.
Speaker 4: When this guy is on, I didn't start any of this,
all right, might ask me that question?
Speaker 5: Answer.
Speaker 3: Listen, listen, you're looking, you traveled late last night, you
look a little tired. Go to bed and get some z's. Okay,
that's coming my way, and you get rid of this guy.
Speaker 1: There we go all right, car let me do some bitching. Now,
some bitching. It's only hard I get to do some bitching. Yeah,
I'm not happy to lose a big play yesterday. And
you know I wouldn't say, like, I'm still an eye
test handicapper overall situationally as well, But I would be
lying if I didn't say I've implemented some analytics to
my handicapping.
Speaker 2: And I know you liked the analytics as well.
Speaker 1: And I know me and you were head to head
on this playcarm so you were exactly right with your handicap.
But I want to ask you this and be completely
honest with me. Should this make me feel better or not?
Because part of me is like, well, my whole analysis
talked about how much there actually would be action in
this game, despite the injuries, despite all the stuff going
on with both of these teams, the game was one
one going into a shootout.
Speaker 2: Jake Allen and Carter Hart. They looked like Olympians.
Speaker 1: These guys looked like some of the best goaltenders the
world has ever seen last night, and I had over
five and look at the x gief.
Speaker 3: I get it. I get it, and I know different
sites calculate it a little differently, but it's it's still
very close. And if you go to natural statuck and
you click on last night's game between the Devils and
the Nights, like I did this morning, because I always
like to review even my pod plays and see if
I had if it went the way I thought it
would go. And I look at it, and the expected
goals are four point ninety two to three point sixty
three even higher. So it's even higher than the numbers
there as far as like the calculation goes. And I listen,
I know there's guys in the chat that are always
going to say expected goals. I don't care whether they're
good or bad, and they don't put it as part
of their handicap. But then I'll see, like the same
person say to me a little later on, I like
this team because they've won thirteen the last fourteen times
they've played against each other. You're now using a trend
of two teams over the last five years where some
of these players aren't even in the lineup for these
teams anymore as your focus of making that a play
that current analytics as opposed to long term trends of
teams and when they've met up five years ago, six
years ago, seven years ago. I will take the current
analytics long before I take the trends part. Trends are
great for talking about it, for talking about it at
a bar with your friends. And it's kind of like
what I mentioned the Pittsburgh Steelers. They've won twenty six
straight Monday night football games. So does that mean that
on Monday Night you're gonna go out and bet the
Pittsburgh Steelers if they're playing eighteen, that's much better than them?
Probably not, But because that's twenty six, you know, you
know how far back you have to go to come
up with a number of twenty six street Monday night wins.
Speaker 2: But is it?
Speaker 1: Listen one of those things where like I I sort
of feel better because I see the numbers and I'm like, Okay,
a lot of my analysis was right, but I'm almost
like starting to get tired of this, like I almost
want to next time, Like you know what what Steve
said here, Like Steve like I'm right, like he's or
Steve's right, like it lost a lot of people hopped
on the play. I lost a play for people, and
it's only one play. I get it, but carm like
it's so frustrating because at least if this game had
XG of like two point three to one point eight,
I could be like, all right, dude, you were wrong,
like that was a bad handicap.
Speaker 2: You know.
Speaker 1: So now I'm just caught in a hard place where
I'm kind of like, well, what do I think? You know, Like,
was it a bad handicap or was it just like
if they played this game ten times? How many times
does this game go over the total? Like I saw
so many huge saves. Anyway, that's my venting session done
for you. But listen, and it's tough to understand kind
of how I should feel, because do I want to
be happy with the XG like that or should I
be I don't know how I should feel.
Speaker 3: Really, I'm the old man that yells at the clouds
pretty much four days a week on the five shows
that we do it is and it's going to happen.
You mean, I wanted to vent at the top of
the show. I went one in one in the NHL
last night. I added an underdog winner with Utah against Detroit,
and I had the over five and a half in
the La Kings Florida game that game with fifteen minutes
left is three to two, and I just you know,
it's just one goal on an empty net, one goal, right,
and you get fifteen minutes of zippo nothing, And I'm like,
you gotta be shitting me, right, But it is why.
It's kind of like what I think Nebraska knows said
in the chat. It is why we bet the games.
Sometimes you are on the right end of the wrong
result and sometimes you're on the wrong end of the
right result. So it is just, yeah, you are the
young man yelling at the clouds.
Speaker 1: My question, Perlo, if you're still there, Perlo, my question
for you is like, if it was a dead spot, though,
then I would rather the x G not be four
point seven to one, because how is it a dead
spot for Vegas if they created a million chances and
Jake Allen played like Patrick Waugh. That's what the most
frustrating part is.
Speaker 3: So the hammer and nail strikes again. It does with
that said, who is the hammer and who is the nail?
Tonight as the Edmonton Oiters minus one forty two Boston
plus one seventeen, the total sits you're six and a half.
And Andrew, I'm gonna say this, you know what I mean?
Like I expect at some point the regression, some kind
of regression to set in for these Boston Bruins. But
if they were winning games, you got to give them credit,
even with the players that are removed in the offseason,
and the team is just playing good. They're just playing
some good hockey. And like, I don't get the line.
I figured it would be a lot lower than one
EDMIN team because the others are to me, are right
now an inconsistent team on the road. They can go
into Toronto and beat the Leafs, and the Leaves had
to have the number one record home record in the
Eastern Conference. So they can go into Toronto and I
win a game six to three, and then they go
to Montreal and they lose a game four to one,
and to me, it's just forget about even trying to
mention back to backs for edmonteam because Montreal is on
a back to back as well too. Haven't played against
I think the Rangers or the Islanders one of those
New York teams night before as well. Too inconsistent and
there minus one forty two year make this make sense?
And you somebody in the chat make it make sense.
Who do you like in this game?
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I always love when I hear that, make this make sense,
make this make sense. It's like just trying to figure
out what the hell is the deal here with this game?
Speaker 2: Carl, my question.
Speaker 1: I guess I'm gonna answer your question with a question,
because I'm gonna ask this, like, are the Oilers sort
of back? Like is this team a little bit back
on track, you know? And are they playing better hockey
or are they getting favorable spots?
Speaker 2: You know?
Speaker 1: Or did they take advantage of a Leafs team that
was still struggling, a Red Wings team that maybe was
due for regression.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: But this team, besides that game against my Canadians, they've
looked pretty darn good. The only thing is, when I
look at this Boston Bruins team, a lot of their
numbers indicate that they've relied on goaltending and they've relied
on extra defensive play. The thing is with them is
that I don't know if their depth goaltending or their
depth scoring can be sustained. I'm looking at daily face
off right now. We got guys in the chat right
now talking about Morgan geeky Lindholm poster knack, of course
is great. Nice to have Casey Middlestat back for this team.
But when I look at mikely Yisimond, we look at
Sean Corawly, Mark Kasselik, Tanner, Janeau, Fraser Minton, these guys,
I'm sorry, they're not bringing it offensively enough, Like I
don't trust it on a large picture. So I feel
like that's kind of the issue I have with this
one for the Boston Bruins, is that right now you've
got an Oilers team that's feeling themselves, that's feeling pretty
good about themselves, And I just look at this match
up here and I'm thinking, all right, we got two
teams that have both won what four to the last
five games, and this might be a spot here where
I want to trust the Oilers to keep it going.
I like them here, carm I think it's a good
spot for them. As I always say, when the Oilers win,
they typically do score four goals. You know, I love
the team totals. They haven't been as great for me lately,
but you look at their win against the Jets, they
scored six. Their win against the Penguins, they scored six
their win against the Maple Leafs, they scored six. Their
win against the Red Wings, they scored four. This team,
when they win, they typically get to that magic team
total number. So when you look at this Oilers team,
was anybody ever worried about them, you know, missing the
playoffs or not getting it together. I don't think I
was worried about them not getting it together. I'm more
I'm more interested in how you feel about the Bruins
than how you feel about the Oilers, because this is
a team that I was doing a podcast last night.
We were talking about the division odds, like Bruins are
still thirty to one to win the division and they're
doing pretty well, but can it be sustained? Red Wings
are thirteen to one to win the division, and kind
of looking at this matchup here, I just think the
Oilers are a bit superior to this Boston Bruins team.
And you always get a better price when you bet
on the Oilers because their team total, they only win
when they score four goals, and sometimes they even lose when.
Speaker 2: They score four.
Speaker 1: I'll never forget last year in the playoffs, car I
had a couple plays, not even just one time, where
I faded. I bet on the Oilers team total and
they lost the game, but it was like five to
four for the other team, so I still hit that,
you know, Andrew.
Speaker 3: The odd thing about this this game, or even like
the Bruins, is you look at the season the Bruins
are having, and I think it's a good season that
they're having. Their twenty and fourteen. They haven't lost the
game in overtime. They're six in overtime. So if the
game goes overtime tonight, might want to just click on
that button and bet the Bruins in overtime. There's six
points out of first place. But it just shows you
about the Eastern Conference. They're eight points out of last place,
thirty two points the Buffalo Sabers in sixteenth place, and
the Sabers are seven points out of a playoff spot.
Carolina is kind of starting to run away with this.
New York Islengers are keeping them close. The Red Wings
are doing the best they can, although I had a
feeling they weren't going to show up last night. They
didn't against Utah. But there's teams in there, you know,
Detroit and Philadelphia that are third and fourth. I don't
expect to be third or fourth come the end of
the season. I think the Flyers eventually missed the playoffs.
I think Detroit is going to be one of those
seventh or eighth place teams. But the teams on the
outside looking in Florida, Toronto, Maple Leiefs, the Ottawa Senators,
and the New York Rangers four teams that were expected
to be battling for a playoff spot or battling for
a wild card spot right now. The Eastern Conference is
so inconsistent this year, or you can call it parody,
that we just don't know if teams are having good
seasons or not because they're so closely bunched. You can
make a case for the team that's in fourteenth being
just as good as a team that's in second place.
You can it's just a weird season. And that's what
makes this tough because you look at it, and without
looking at the standings, you would you would think, Okay,
the Edmonton Others, the team that's played in the last
two Stanley Cup finals, a team with Conor McDavid, Leon
Dry Sidle, they got a lot of you know, they
pick up a new goalie interest in Jarry we'll see
if that works out for them, that they should be
able to beat up on this Bruins team. But I'm
not laying at buck forty two to try and find
out in this one, Andrew, I tend to think we're
going to see some goals in this game, especially after
a flat night in the NHL. The NHL is like
ebbs and flows with goals. One night it's completely dead.
The next night you see goals by the bucketful might
be a good Grand Salami night, speaking of Italian foods,
will take the over six and a half and dine
on some salami tonight.
Speaker 2: I love the Grand Salami. Man.
Speaker 1: I can't believe every you know, prop Better's got destroyed
yesterday because everybody loves betting overs and every single game
going under doesn't really help the case to that.
Speaker 3: Andrew. For my friend Rex, he's like, hold my tongue
about the flyer's follying and we'll see how I feel tomorrow.
One day in the NHL is not going to make
me feel any differently a viewpoint. I can't change a
viewpoint on a team on a daily basis. It is
going to remain like that until I see, you know,
until they disproved me otherwise. I just think that the
Flyers are playing above their head right now under Rick
talking it just will see how how sustainable that is.
Vodar's got to be great. But these goal this goaltending
duel hasn't gone through the grind of an eighty two
game season where Valadar is the number one guy and
Ersen's the number two guy. So we'll see when we
hit like kind of like those dog days of summer
in baseball. We'll see when we hit the sixty game
mark where teams are with their with their goaltending. So
that's my point. Andrew a bit of a tangent there,
but I wanted to let Rex know it doesn't matter
to me whether the Sabers lose eighteen to one or
five to two tonight. And I'll describe the five to
two later on in the show. But any more thoughts
on this game before we move to the next one.
Speaker 1: Well, I just think that, you know, one thing overall
calm that I want to do better of is catching
teams on streaks. You've talked about it a lot, you
do a good job of it, and you know, even
I used to talk about this with Andy Lang when
it comes to betting on player props was if somebody
makes you money in the NFL or in the NHL
or in the NBA, it's okay to to bet on
that guy or player, you know, team multiple times.
Speaker 2: And so I think that.
Speaker 1: When I look at this right now, like I look
at this Oilers team, and I see them finding their offense,
I see them turning it around, and carm I, I
don't want to sound like the what they call it,
the Monday morning quarterback, but I kind of feel like
maybe I'm maybe I'm on the uh, maybe I'm on
the Tristan Jarry Benwig.
Speaker 2: And all of a sudden, because like yeah.
Speaker 1: People were saying it, and including me, You're like, oh, well,
what kind of a difference is that. But like at
the end of the day, a lot of media members
said this too, and like they needed to make a change,
and it was kind of sad, Like did you see
that picture.
Speaker 2: Going around of.
Speaker 1: I think Leon Drivestitle got like his one thousandth point,
And so all the players go off the bench and
they're celebrating, and they're celebrating next to Stuart Skinners. So
all of the pictures of them celebrating is right, like
that is just sad man. And then they're like saying
goodbye to him after the game, like that's sad. But
I'm believing in this Oilers team right now, Like the
Oilers are such.
Speaker 2: An emotional team.
Speaker 1: Let's be honest, Like they're either one way or the other,
and right now they're this way. They're scoring goals their
offenses there, and you know what's funny, I saw I
saw some people's projections and not many, but I saw
one or two where some people actually want Zach Hyman
on the Olympic team. And now I thought, because of
his injuries and the shorter sample size this year, I
didn't know if he had a spot on the team.
Speaker 2: But maybe he does.
Speaker 1: So I'm very curious, but maybe Zach Kimon is underrated
on this team. People called him a tap in merchant
last year. All his goals are tappins. Well yeah, he
still scored them.
Speaker 3: He still scored them, right, Yeah, I could use a
lot of those tap ins sometimes that night and I'm
just they're not coming, and like, you know what is
going on here? But it's just listen. You know, we
do this show daily guys, you know, Monday to Fridays
we talk about these ones. We do segments of six
and sixty. The parody makes it so tough because you
have to rely on analytics and sometimes you have to
look at trends, you have to look at goaltending and
favorable matchups. But Andrew, at the end of the day,
sometimes it really feels like if you don't do that,
you're not giving yourself an honest chance to win. And
it's a disservice to your clients as well too. You
have to do the homework in order to try and
get out the best play possible, but almost equated to
sometimes if you don't do that homework, it's like, you know,
going to the grocery store and you're going through the
tomatoes and it's like, no, no, this one's no good,
this one's no good. Just pushing them aside, and you
find a good tomato and it's like, all right, put
some work into that one. Let's go and make ourselves
a nice sandwich or what have you. But listen, it
is tough. The Eastern Conference has been completely unpredictable this season,
and you can see it in the standings. You can
see it how close it is from from top to bottom,
and again there's a you know, the one outlier is
you know, Carolina, who has forty six points and they're
sort of running away from it. But you look at
the second place team, which I think is the I
think it's the Detroit Red Wings and the New York
Islanders at forty one. And then you have the bottom
of the league, bottom of the division, the Sabers on
a three game winning streak with the thirty two points.
It just tells you that a three to four game
win streak just shakes or a losing streak shakes up
the standings. So I think the Western Conference is a lot.
It's gotten a little easier to predict. I think there's
a big separation between who are the good teams and
who are the bad teams, And on most nights, the
good ones are winning unless it's a bad scheduling spot
for them. With that said, Andrew, let's talk another Eastern
Conference tomato picking game, the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Auto Senators.
And I picked this game to discuss, guys, because I
look at this line a dollar seventy one Ottawa minus
one seventy one, Pittsburgh plus one forty six and a half.
This is another one of those make this make sense
to me?
Speaker 1: Andrew, Well, Karm, I think that we've seen this Penguins
team just fall off an absolute cliff. I wish we
had a shot to bring it up, but like I
can just we can just run through it. Like six
goals allowed against the Oilers, five against the Mammoth, six
to the Sharks, four to the Habs the Ducks. Like
this team is both defensively and just depth wise struggling
right now. Like I saw somebody on Twitter saying that
Crosby hasn't been doing enough lately?
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?
Speaker 5: Like?
Speaker 1: Without Crosby, where is this team? Even this season he
was like forty years old leading the league in goals
at one point. I think that we might have to
start changing our benchmark Karen from American Thanksgiving to Christmas
time for when we start to find out who a
team truly is. I think we know who the Penguins
truly are at this point.
Speaker 2: We do.
Speaker 1: And yeah, Steve with this comment here, since seven three
verus Pittsburgh, who won the last meeting. Convincedly, you know
when you look at this though, Karen, and that number,
and you say, make it make sense. It kind of
does make you think, like, okay, one seventy five, the
Bucks are confident here with Ottawa. And I was on
a podcast last night and I said that I think
that Ottawa is the most underrated Canadian team and maybe
one of the most underrated teams in the whole league.
If you put this Ottawa lineup in Toronto, Maple Leave jerseys,
Montreal Canadian jerseys, Vancouver Canuck jerseys. Even are people not
talking about this team? More like, is Ottawa the team
in Canada that's like the ugly stepsister that nobody cares about?
Speaker 2: Am I allowed to say that?
Speaker 1: It seems like it's like that part of Canada that it's.
Speaker 2: Like that team in Canada doesn't get that credit, you know.
Speaker 1: So I just think that and and you know, as
much as we could try and make a case for
like the Penguins are going to be desperate, They're going
to be in need to get back on track. You know,
they're a team that's been playing some pretty good hockey,
the only thing I would say is this is the
first game back they'll play at home, so maybe it's
an interesting road spot. I I just can't look at
anything else besides overs when it comes to spots right
now for the Ottawa Senators. This is gonna be a big,
big game here for the Pittsburgh Penguins, and if they
even help in the slightest, in the slightest to get
this over the total, I think over five and a
half is the playcarm I do. And remember what you said,
maybe this is the Grand Salami Night. This could be
the Grand Salami Knight. But I think that we see
goals in this one, and it almost makes me feel
better the fact that the Senators just played the Jets
and the Wild, two notorious under teams. I feel like
the Senators have it in them to play a little
bit more of an over game. Now, keep in mind
Almark has been a pretty sharp goalie with his rebound
control and you know his say percentage lately.
Speaker 2: But I still like we like some overs here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Richly, No, we're not canceling Andrew. No, we're not
canceling Andrew, not that they know of. Is there like
something leaked by the app or whatever? Andrew? You know,
I just can't lay a buck seventy one and this
one mainly because off a couple of those embarrassing losses
for for Pittsburgh where they just blew a gasket in
the in the third periods against what was it San Jose,
and I think Utah allowing like four goals in in
the third in third period twice. Sometimes in order to
play better defense, sometimes you hit the road and and
you play some better d And that's what they're doing.
A trip to obviously, a trip to Ottawa, a trip
to Montreal. I got a question for the Pittsburgh organization, Uh,
why would you schedule a dad's trip to go to
Ottawa and Montreal? No disrespect to those cities, but it
is cold as f in Ottawa and Montreal, And I
get it. There's some nice scenic views in Montreal, you
go to Old Port and what have you. But at
the beginning of this month they were in Tampa Bay
and then they played in Dallas, two warmer climate climate places.
If you're going to do a dad's trip, why wouldn't
you take them there? I don't get it. I do
not get it. They would never take the moms on
a trip to Ottawa and uh and Montreal. That's just
that's just me Andrew Uh as far as that goes,
this is one of those weird ones where you you
look at this and you're like, Okay, Ottawa is playing well,
they can score goals. Pittsburgh's leaking goals. It's an auto over.
I'm going to be the contrarian here and say that
the Penguins. Maybe I make lost kid when he watches
his video eventually, the huge Pittsburgh Penguins fan that he is,
Maybe I make him happy and say that maybe the
Pittsburgh Penguins rediscover how to play defense on the road
in this two game trap against Ottawa and Montreal. A
split for them would be great. Obviously, winning both would
be fantastic. Losing both, I think it just adds to
the pain of this team and that regression that's sitting
in or setting in. I'm looking at the under here.
I'm just going to be a contrarian in this one.
I'm not going to get to the window on it.
It is just my lean that the underhits here.
Speaker 2: Big shout out to Jonathan.
Speaker 1: Jonathan Davis joined me on my Every Game on the
Board video two weeks ago, and Jonathan does great work
with vison and he said the dads will be hanging
at Shay Perry.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they probably will be. They probably will be.
Speaker 1: Not that I've ever been there, karm on a bachelor
party having a good time. I would never do that,
but you know, if you have been there, it's not
a bad place.
Speaker 2: It's not a bad place to be.
Speaker 1: And I think the dads maybe, maybe, Jonathan, maybe the
dads have another place that we don't know about that
they'll go to. But that's for another subject. Calm, you're
being the contrarian today.
Speaker 2: I respect it.
Speaker 3: Look perlol doesn't like any things that playing boring defensive
hockey for dads isn't a thing, but neither is losing
seven to two. That is an even worse thing for
the dads, I would think. And I've only been to
Ottawa like a handful of times. Is where our government is,
our parliament is. I could I wish I could get
farther away from it if I could. But we're not
bringing politics into this one because we don't have another
two hours to discuss this stuff. Andrew, do you have
a same game parlay or should I just go to
the pod?
Speaker 1: I am going to just go let you go to
the pod. But I'm gonna mention one thing. Drake Bathison
over shots on goal in this game, Pittsburgh gives up
a ton of shots on goal, especially to his position.
You can take over two and a half or you
can take over three and a half at a really
good plus price. He's the one player prop I've looked
at so far today. The rest of my player prop
thoughts will probably be out later on in the afternoon.
But Drake Bethiston and if you guys looked at yesterday,
we didn't cash these Surgate chef plus seven to fifty goal,
but he did get a point for us and that
did cash. So the same game, parlay Car. I've been
what I've been trying to do lately is, you know,
give out some plays that people can also single bets.
So we haven't been hitting these ten to one. So
we've been hitting some of these, you know, single bets. Well,
if I go three for four and people didn't take
some of them as single bets, that that is what
it is like. I can't lock in the singles for you.
Speaker 3: Yeah. No, Andrew, a friend of mine sends me a
ticket that he played last night. I should have just
taken a screenshot of it and put it up, and
he took my pod play. But then he also added
to it the Vegas Golden Knights. And I said, to
my goal, so you turned a winning into a losing
bet by adding one more leg to it instead of
making it a single play, making it a parlay. And
this is I get it this. I'm not telling you
guys not to play parlays. I will throw some out
there occasionally, but there for entertainment only. Never put up
a big part of your bank roll on them. It
is tough enough to pick one game, right Picking two, three, four, five,
six seven is absolutely insane. And I'm going to stick
to that thought process Andrew moving forward and sort of
preaching that. So I'm going to go to the pod
play here and let me get the time ready for
the time stamp both market down as a forty four
fifty time stamp. I am going to go to the
over in the Buffalo Sabers and a Philadelphia Flyers game.
That number sits at six about minus one eighteen. There's
some lower big ones. I see some one minus one,
fourteens and one fifteen's out there. You look at these
two games, you know when I when I reached out
to someone last night to find out about the goaltending
situations in Buffalo and in Philadelphia, I was told that
Erson was likely going to make the start tonight instead
of Dan Ladar, So I haven't seen any reports as
of yet, but I think it's going to be Ersten
and he hasn't been very solid over the last while
for them, and that's why I think Philly doesn't have
a the proper one to two combo as far as
goaltending goes. And then you look at these two teams,
Andrew and when they've met, I think fourteen straight three
straight overs between these teams five to two earlier this season,
nine point one two XG when they met in Philadelphia,
game in which the Flyers won five to two. Ninth
straight meetings with six or more goals scored between these two,
including all three meetings last season, and relevant Infolk because
I'm using last season's numbers as well too. I'm going
to take the over in this one. Alex Lyon should
be the starter for the Buffalo Sabers tonight, and look
for one of the Sabers three goalies to get moved shortly.
It'll either be Alex Lyon or it's going to be TJ.
Salvator's good buddy Uko Pecca Lucanan if someone takes that
fat ass contract that he has, but for tonight it's
over six and a half minus one eighteen.
Speaker 1: As long as they don't trade away my good buddy,
my buddy from from Nova Scotia, which I don't think
they'll trade away a young guy. So I think UPL
is the guy that gets to be traded because you
can't be trading away the young player.
Speaker 3: Yeah. The thing is, you know, I mean like it's
going to be one of the two, either Lion or
Pecca Uco Pecca Lucanan. The thing is, with the new
GM that came in, he understands. I think he wants
to resign Alex Tuck for the Sabers. We're gonna do
a little bit of Saber talk real quickly here, but
I think he wants to resign Alex Tuck show that
some of the bigger name players still want to stay
here and not get rid of some scoring. But Uko
hasn't been great, but you look at it, sometimes these
these goalies leave the Sabers organization, go elsewhere and play
extremely well. Dominic Hassock, well, he was great in the
Sabers uniform, but he was even better for the Detroit
Red Wings in winning the Stanley Cup and winning the
Hart Trophy as well too. You look at Olmark. Almark
came from the Sabers organization as well too. If I,
if I, unless you want to correct me on that one,
I think UPL gets moved. But someone is gonna have
to eat that cap space. It's gonna have to be
a team that has a lot of dead cap space
that they can pick him up. And there's gonna be
some some teams there. Maybe they can get somebody out
of some somewhere. The what when's the freeze? Andrew the deadline.
Speaker 2: Freeze Saturn morning?
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, okay, so yeah, there's no games on the
twenty fourth, twenty fifth, and twenty six, So next week
we only have shows on Monday and Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.
There's no shows. We could always come on and just
bitch and complain for thirty five minutes or forty minutes,
but you guys don't want to see that.
Speaker 2: But let's book this.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but I know the Pod wins. I want to
keep this this rush going because we're up thirty five
percent with the POD on our bank. Well, and someone
asked very early on. I didn't get his name, but
asked very early on a question of is your pod
play still flat two hundred dollars?
Speaker 2: It is.
Speaker 3: I have not changed it to the new balance. It
is still a flat two hundred, which equates to a
four percent bet each and every game.
Speaker 1: Carm, just a question here about no adoptson shots on goal.
I just pulled up Hall of Fame bets, which I
like using for my prop research. I'm sure Jonathan you
already looked at these numbers, but it looks like it's
a really good bet. Because Montreal is playing Chicago, they
are twenty eighth in the league in shots on goal allowed.
But Karm, they not just twenty eighth in the league
and shots on goal allowed, they are thirty second in
the league, dead last in shots on goal allowed against defencemen.
So I love looking at these websites for shots on
goal stuff, but also for certain positions. Maybe worth a
sprinkle as well plus six point fifty as they rank
thirty first in the league in shots and goals given
up against defenseman as well. So as far as these
shots on goal number, I'll just pull this up here.
You can get at least three shots on goal for
Dobson at plus one ninety eight. At Fandel DraftKings has
plus one seventy and over one and a half shots
is minus one sixty, So not really a bad day.
Speaker 2: And I love looking at that stuff, like how.
Speaker 1: A certain team does versus a certain position, like karm
who was a Dolphins and Steelers. For some reason, the
Dolphins their passing defense was okay, but them against tight
ends was horrible. So this is the kind of case
for Chicago, Like you know, they're the fourteenth most goals
in general right in the league, but thirty first most
goals or thirty first ranked against defenceman, so whatever it is,
they give up goals against defenseman and shots on goal
against defenseman. Just wanted to answer that. For Jonathan, I
will just say, guys, if I do put up anything
at NHL today, it will be small. It feels like
every year I either have a fantastic year or a
down year. We need to find a medium. We need
to find a medium and hopefully we can get back
on track and turn it around. There's a lot more
time left. The good news is the NFL player props
continue to go really well. It's like a twenty six
and fifteen run a four and zero run number one
out of every single handicaper at wager Talk with NFL
player props. Got one play going tonight and one play only.
You can get that and anything I do release in
the NHL. If I decide to release anything will be
a smaller play for tonight. My plan, karm is to
have that reset small plays and then see what that
big Saturday board says to me and come back and
attack it and get back on track. But guys, don't
miss out four percent play four percent best bet NFL
player prop. I know people love the side, you love
the total, but don't forget about the player props.
Speaker 2: All the tickets cash the same. That's it for me, karm.
Speaker 3: YEP quick note, don Buster or one of our regular
guests as you know him, Don Julio Buster has a
five percent play up for tonight. I wanted to mention
at the beginning of the show, but I got sidetracked
with pres and that Oreo mustache beard combo that he's
got going on there. Head over to wager Talk WT
dot buzz backslash dB don Buster and you can find
his five percent NHL play up there for myself. Three
plays up in the NHL tonight and my NFL cards
up for the weekend, and an NFL play up for tonight,
a best bet for tonight. Nobody don't take the Thursday games,
but do you like this play. I'm going to be
on last call tonight at seven o'clock before I head
out to watch the game with the boys, and a
monster card on Sunday. Four plays up for me, three
four percent best bets, one five percent NFL best bet
as well to or top play plus one hundred and
forty five units over the last three years in the
NFL with four and five percent plays. It's number one
at wager Talk in the NFL. We are going to
keep that run going with a big weekend. So think
about maybe picking up that three day all access where
you get one extra day. It is a great deal
that's going on right now at wager Talking three Day
all Access. You get a fourth day for free, and
that'll cover you Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. You'll get every
single play, including some college plays and three to zero
in bowl games thus far in college football. So let's
keep that rolling as well.
Speaker 2: Too.
Speaker 3: Guys love the chat today, You guys are absolutely awesome
hit that like button on your way out. For myself,
and Andrew and the press our guests, this is part time.
We will see you on Friday and the return of
the six and sixty, which is going to be a
lot better than last week's. Take care guys,