WEBVTT 1 00:00:19.440 --> 00:00:21.320 I'm wantin to welcome to the Gold, Goats and Guns 2 00:00:21.320 --> 00:00:25.160 podcast for today Veteran's Day, November eleven, twenty twenty four. 3 00:00:25.199 --> 00:00:26.640 My name is Tom Laong, and we have a lot 4 00:00:26.679 --> 00:00:28.440 to talk about. We do have a lot to talk about, 5 00:00:28.480 --> 00:00:30.480 and I really wish I had done this earlier, but 6 00:00:30.519 --> 00:00:32.759 it's episode one ninety seven. I get to have a 7 00:00:33.119 --> 00:00:35.600 follow up chat with my good friend Kaitlyn Along. Caitlin's 8 00:00:35.600 --> 00:00:38.200 been on the podcast before. The last time we did this, 9 00:00:38.280 --> 00:00:41.159 she unfortunately didn't have a whole lot of time, so 10 00:00:41.320 --> 00:00:44.479 hopefully we can get that make that better this time. 11 00:00:44.479 --> 00:00:46.359 We can have a little bit more of a nuanced 12 00:00:46.439 --> 00:00:49.479 chat about what's going on and not feel so stressed 13 00:00:49.479 --> 00:00:52.920 about the time constraint. Caitlin, how are you and how 14 00:00:52.960 --> 00:00:55.079 have you been? And I hope everything in your corner 15 00:00:55.119 --> 00:00:58.200 of the world is at least stable, because I know, 16 00:00:58.840 --> 00:01:02.679 I know things are complex, but hopefully they are stated has. 17 00:01:02.520 --> 00:01:07.079 It ever been, Tom, Obviously things are looking up at 18 00:01:07.120 --> 00:01:10.439 a macro level in the United States and in my 19 00:01:10.680 --> 00:01:15.359 corner of the world, the Jacobins, who i've in my opinion, 20 00:01:15.439 --> 00:01:20.000 unlawfully have debanked their political enemies. And I'm not just 21 00:01:20.040 --> 00:01:24.200 talking about the crypto industry at large. It has also 22 00:01:24.319 --> 00:01:30.120 been the religious groups including Christians and Muslim groups, political 23 00:01:30.159 --> 00:01:34.799 conservatives and not and then the crypto and fintech industry 24 00:01:34.799 --> 00:01:38.280 and the Trump family. And it's so interesting how there 25 00:01:38.359 --> 00:01:41.280 have been different groups that have had outcries about all 26 00:01:41.319 --> 00:01:44.799 of this, uh and the streams are are coming together, 27 00:01:45.359 --> 00:01:49.959 and the recognition is now there on the part of 28 00:01:50.040 --> 00:01:54.400 the Republicans that this was a coordinated, all out effort 29 00:01:55.359 --> 00:01:59.079 to to deplatform and in the case of the financial 30 00:01:59.079 --> 00:02:04.640 services industry d bank lawful industries that certain people just 31 00:02:04.680 --> 00:02:08.840 didn't like. It's an abusive power, in my opinion, violates 32 00:02:08.919 --> 00:02:12.599 the operation show point one point zero lawsuit settlement that 33 00:02:12.719 --> 00:02:16.039 the FED or sorry that the FDIC made with the 34 00:02:16.520 --> 00:02:20.960 payday lenders. It certainly violates the spirit of that settlement. 35 00:02:21.719 --> 00:02:24.080 But the FDS was careful not to go after the 36 00:02:24.120 --> 00:02:28.520 payday lenders this time. They did it against different perceived 37 00:02:28.719 --> 00:02:33.479 enemies this time. But it certainly violates the spirit of 38 00:02:33.479 --> 00:02:36.039 that settlement. And it's it's all going to come out, 39 00:02:36.039 --> 00:02:36.639 tom It's all. 40 00:02:36.599 --> 00:02:39.319 Going to come out, okay. Cool. Just to remind everybody 41 00:02:39.400 --> 00:02:41.599 so you can do this, like remind everybody what that 42 00:02:41.639 --> 00:02:44.520 settlement was what actually happened, because I'll be honest with you, 43 00:02:44.599 --> 00:02:47.000 I wasn't paying that much that close attention to it. 44 00:02:47.039 --> 00:02:49.120 I should, but it's like everything else, there's so much 45 00:02:49.120 --> 00:02:52.199 in the world. We all can't we all can't cover 46 00:02:52.240 --> 00:02:53.919 everything all the time. Half the time I have people 47 00:02:53.919 --> 00:02:55.400 on the podcast to get me up to speed on 48 00:02:55.439 --> 00:02:56.520 the things that I think I should know. 49 00:02:57.520 --> 00:02:59.199 Well, this is one of them. Because the Trump family 50 00:02:59.240 --> 00:03:02.639 was directly impact and it made the news when Malania's 51 00:03:02.639 --> 00:03:05.000 book came out a couple of weeks ago, and that 52 00:03:05.039 --> 00:03:06.919 was one of her big disclosures in the book was 53 00:03:06.919 --> 00:03:09.560 that she and Barron had both been targeted for losing 54 00:03:09.639 --> 00:03:14.319 their bank accounts. But the settlement, basically Operation Chow point 55 00:03:14.360 --> 00:03:17.319 one point zero started during that Obama administration, and it 56 00:03:17.360 --> 00:03:21.520 started with the payday lenders, and the consumer advocates were 57 00:03:21.800 --> 00:03:24.879 very angry at the payday lending industry, didn't consider it 58 00:03:24.960 --> 00:03:30.759 legitimate and discovered that ends justify the means they could 59 00:03:30.840 --> 00:03:33.000 use the bank regulators to try to put the payday 60 00:03:33.080 --> 00:03:35.840 lenders out of business by pressuring the banks to stop 61 00:03:35.919 --> 00:03:38.280 banking them. In the United States, if you don't have 62 00:03:38.280 --> 00:03:40.680 a bank account, you are not a legitimate person or 63 00:03:40.759 --> 00:03:43.719 business because in the business world, you've got to pay 64 00:03:43.759 --> 00:03:48.599 your payroll, you're withholding taxes to the irs using an 65 00:03:48.599 --> 00:03:53.639 electronic transfer, using a bank account, so therefore you really 66 00:03:53.680 --> 00:03:58.280 need a bank account and the powers that be It 67 00:03:58.360 --> 00:04:03.000 started with the FDIC in the in Obama one point 68 00:04:03.080 --> 00:04:08.240 zero is they went after started with the paid eight lenders, 69 00:04:08.240 --> 00:04:12.840 but ended up expanding into the gun manufacturers, into gaming, 70 00:04:13.080 --> 00:04:17.879 into adult entertainment, essentially every industry that they didn't like, 71 00:04:18.360 --> 00:04:21.439 and it covered thirty different industries. And so the payday 72 00:04:21.519 --> 00:04:24.879 lenders sued and the fdi CE originally lied and said 73 00:04:24.920 --> 00:04:27.639 we weren't doing this, but of course when the Payday 74 00:04:27.720 --> 00:04:30.800 Lenders Trade Association got to discovery, there was all kinds 75 00:04:30.800 --> 00:04:34.040 of evidence that yes, indeed they were doing this. Sound familiar, 76 00:04:34.399 --> 00:04:37.399 same same thing is happening now, except we do have 77 00:04:37.439 --> 00:04:40.959 evidence that the FED has been doing this. We have 78 00:04:41.000 --> 00:04:45.040 evidence that the FED has been specifically targeting custodia, including 79 00:04:45.079 --> 00:04:49.240 recently and and and you know, we'll hopefully get our 80 00:04:49.319 --> 00:04:51.839 day in court to be able to reveal all bad. 81 00:04:52.240 --> 00:04:55.439 Good I mean, So that's fascinating. So we are we 82 00:04:55.480 --> 00:04:59.199 talking specific federers or banks or are we talking this coming 83 00:04:59.240 --> 00:05:02.279 directly from the from the I guess the monolith that 84 00:05:02.399 --> 00:05:05.120 is the FOMA, because I know those are because remember, 85 00:05:05.160 --> 00:05:07.839 the FED is disreminded everybody the physic conglomeration of twelve 86 00:05:08.160 --> 00:05:10.800 nominally independent banks. Blah blah blah blah blah. I'm just 87 00:05:11.040 --> 00:05:13.680 making sure that we, you know, we cross our eyes 88 00:05:13.680 --> 00:05:15.319 on our teas here. Yeah. 89 00:05:15.360 --> 00:05:19.160 So the structure of the FED. Historically, the FED was 90 00:05:19.160 --> 00:05:24.199 created as twelve completely independent federal reserve regional Federal Reserve banks, right, 91 00:05:24.240 --> 00:05:27.279 and they each set their own monetary policy and each 92 00:05:27.279 --> 00:05:31.279 set their own discount rates. And then that started in 93 00:05:31.319 --> 00:05:34.120 nineteen thirteen when the FED was created. The whole idea 94 00:05:34.560 --> 00:05:36.519 was that they didn't want to be in the Bank 95 00:05:36.560 --> 00:05:37.920 of England and we're going to talk about the Bank 96 00:05:37.959 --> 00:05:40.800 of England in a little bit. They wanted to disperse 97 00:05:40.959 --> 00:05:44.879 power across the United States. And there were people, including 98 00:05:44.879 --> 00:05:50.279 Wyoming's first congressman, who warned that this organization was going 99 00:05:50.319 --> 00:05:54.279 to centralize and increase in power, which is exactly what happened. 100 00:05:54.319 --> 00:05:58.560 And then in the nineteen thirties when the FDSC was created, 101 00:05:58.920 --> 00:06:02.959 the there was an oversight board that was national, but 102 00:06:02.959 --> 00:06:05.360 it had no power. And then they gave it power 103 00:06:05.399 --> 00:06:07.600 and created the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve 104 00:06:07.639 --> 00:06:12.519 System in DC. Now there's an inherent tension between the 105 00:06:12.639 --> 00:06:16.399 privately owned twelve Federal Reserve banks, which is where all 106 00:06:16.399 --> 00:06:20.240 the balance sheets are, and then and then the Board 107 00:06:20.279 --> 00:06:22.759 of Governors in Washington, d C. But what has happened, 108 00:06:22.839 --> 00:06:25.480 especially since the two thousand and eight financial crisis. The 109 00:06:25.519 --> 00:06:28.279 FED did not let a crisis go to waste, and 110 00:06:28.399 --> 00:06:32.519 they have massively increased their power and their footprint and 111 00:06:32.560 --> 00:06:38.519 their centralization in markets they are the repo market. There 112 00:06:38.600 --> 00:06:42.959 is essentially only one private triparty repo party even still 113 00:06:43.000 --> 00:06:45.279 around Bank of New York Mellon JP. Morgan got out 114 00:06:45.279 --> 00:06:49.759 of that business. And so who knows what real repot 115 00:06:49.759 --> 00:06:52.439 pricing would look like if the FED, with its giant 116 00:06:52.439 --> 00:06:57.680 balance sheet that that has no constraint on it, were 117 00:06:57.680 --> 00:07:01.759 not the party, if that were privatized. And and that's 118 00:07:01.800 --> 00:07:04.680 just one example of just the monopolies that the FED 119 00:07:04.720 --> 00:07:08.439 has created in financial markets for itself. UH and UH. 120 00:07:08.800 --> 00:07:11.439 And it's trying to keep the states from being able 121 00:07:11.480 --> 00:07:15.120 to charter banks, where in other words, that the FED 122 00:07:15.199 --> 00:07:17.319 has to be the states have to go and get 123 00:07:17.319 --> 00:07:20.680 permission from the Fed to be able to charter banks, 124 00:07:20.680 --> 00:07:22.600 and that is not what the law says. So there 125 00:07:22.639 --> 00:07:25.759 has just been this creeping centralization of power over the decades, 126 00:07:26.600 --> 00:07:29.079 and it's going to be fascinating. I know you've been 127 00:07:29.279 --> 00:07:31.560 talking a lot about Jay Powell. You and I think 128 00:07:31.639 --> 00:07:34.800 don't have this, don't agree on that, but your view 129 00:07:35.000 --> 00:07:37.759 is really interesting and I and I will concede there's 130 00:07:37.800 --> 00:07:41.439 a lot of truth to it that that that uh, 131 00:07:42.120 --> 00:07:45.040 you know, Powell, you think has done a good job. 132 00:07:45.079 --> 00:07:47.879 But the point is that the centralization of power in 133 00:07:47.879 --> 00:07:51.879 the FED. Last week you saw at his press conference 134 00:07:51.920 --> 00:07:54.920 an incredible reaction from all sides. One of my good friends, 135 00:07:54.959 --> 00:07:59.040 who's who's like my my barometer of the quintessential New 136 00:07:59.120 --> 00:08:01.720 York Times reader called me and said, boy, the Fed 137 00:08:01.839 --> 00:08:04.639 is the Fed really screwed up? And so you know, 138 00:08:04.959 --> 00:08:07.319 obviously the Libertarians were all up in arms and the 139 00:08:07.360 --> 00:08:10.240 Trump Trump maga folds. But but when the New York 140 00:08:10.279 --> 00:08:12.720 Times person calls and said, boy, the Fed really screwed up? 141 00:08:12.759 --> 00:08:16.920 Because what what came across in that press conference last week? 142 00:08:17.319 --> 00:08:21.399 When I think it was Victoria Guida from Politico, who 143 00:08:21.439 --> 00:08:23.120 does a lot of crypto reporting. By the way, she 144 00:08:23.439 --> 00:08:27.639 asked him if if Powell or if if Trump asked 145 00:08:27.639 --> 00:08:30.199 you to resign, would you And he said nope, very 146 00:08:30.439 --> 00:08:34.679 verbly and haughtily, very arrogantly. And then she said, do 147 00:08:34.720 --> 00:08:37.360 you think the fault that the that that that Trump 148 00:08:37.440 --> 00:08:40.080 has the power to fire federal reserve governors? And he 149 00:08:40.159 --> 00:08:44.720 answered even more arrogantly no. Uh. Now, academics have debated 150 00:08:44.720 --> 00:08:47.679 that for years, and I don't know whether it's going 151 00:08:47.759 --> 00:08:50.039 to be tried. That's one of the things that remains 152 00:08:50.080 --> 00:08:52.559 to be seen. But it's going to be fascinating. And 153 00:08:52.600 --> 00:08:55.279 I was just talking to someone this morning about who's 154 00:08:55.279 --> 00:08:58.200 going to be the Treasury Secretary. That's going to tell 155 00:08:58.240 --> 00:09:02.919 a lot because if it's if it's a reformer, then 156 00:09:03.159 --> 00:09:05.879 oh boy, that's gonna tell a lot. And if it's 157 00:09:06.039 --> 00:09:09.200 if it's not a reformer, then that that means more 158 00:09:09.240 --> 00:09:12.360 business as usual and it's up to Congress to decide 159 00:09:12.399 --> 00:09:15.120 whether to reform the FED. But now with the Republicans 160 00:09:15.120 --> 00:09:18.080 in charge and all this debanking, here's an interesting connection 161 00:09:18.120 --> 00:09:21.360 I'll make for you. Sam Brownback used to be the 162 00:09:21.519 --> 00:09:24.600 Senator from Kansas. He's the one who's been out there 163 00:09:24.720 --> 00:09:27.279 leading the charge against the d banking of Christian groups, 164 00:09:27.799 --> 00:09:30.200 and he's one of the Republican senators. They'll know it, 165 00:09:30.480 --> 00:09:33.559 right So, I mean, this is common. There's a big 166 00:09:33.600 --> 00:09:37.320 investigation into all this. It's coming. Tim Scott will be 167 00:09:37.840 --> 00:09:41.559 Chairman of Senate Banking as of January twod and he's 168 00:09:41.639 --> 00:09:45.519 really livid about this, rightfully so. And he announced back 169 00:09:45.519 --> 00:09:49.559 in August in when he was speaking in Jackson Hall 170 00:09:50.240 --> 00:09:55.120 that there would be investigations into this, and I will 171 00:09:55.120 --> 00:09:57.279 take him at his word. The only question that I 172 00:09:57.360 --> 00:10:00.399 have is do they decide to actually hunker down and 173 00:10:00.399 --> 00:10:04.159 do a serious reform themselves, which would probably take precedence 174 00:10:04.360 --> 00:10:08.639 over a investigation. But either way, it's all going to 175 00:10:08.639 --> 00:10:12.440 come out or the power that was abused here is 176 00:10:12.519 --> 00:10:13.639 going to be unwhelmed. 177 00:10:14.320 --> 00:10:17.360 Yeah, well, let's hope that that that the latter happens, 178 00:10:17.399 --> 00:10:19.799 or at the very least, again, I'm going to make 179 00:10:20.240 --> 00:10:24.279 going to like full disclosure here. I don't like the 180 00:10:24.279 --> 00:10:27.240 Federal Reserve. I don't think we should have anything other 181 00:10:27.279 --> 00:10:30.919 than some kind of sound monetary system. I don't know 182 00:10:30.960 --> 00:10:34.159 what that looks like. The world is far more complicated 183 00:10:34.159 --> 00:10:38.159 than all the ideas about sound money that we're just stated. 184 00:10:38.240 --> 00:10:40.759 During the nineteenth century, we have a lot of work 185 00:10:40.759 --> 00:10:43.279 that's been done. I'm no one is happy about the 186 00:10:43.320 --> 00:10:47.600 hyper financialization of capital markets when we were not. None 187 00:10:47.639 --> 00:10:49.320 of us are happy about any of this, None of 188 00:10:49.360 --> 00:10:51.519 us and all of the and all of the criticisms 189 00:10:51.519 --> 00:10:54.440 of the Federal Reserve going back to its formation from 190 00:10:54.840 --> 00:10:56.639 you know where you wouldn't call them Austrians back in 191 00:10:56.679 --> 00:10:59.279 the nineteen thirties. That didn't exist as a as a 192 00:10:59.320 --> 00:11:03.759 school of thought then. But you know those people back then, 193 00:11:04.480 --> 00:11:06.679 those you know, I guess you would call them Protoastrians. 194 00:11:06.879 --> 00:11:09.399 We're making these exact arguments, but sensilization of power and 195 00:11:09.399 --> 00:11:13.960 everything and then no circumstances has that changed. It's wrong, 196 00:11:14.120 --> 00:11:18.080 and it's and it's greased the skids for everything that 197 00:11:18.120 --> 00:11:21.279 we have lived under over the last one hundred years, 198 00:11:21.279 --> 00:11:24.799 one hundred and ten years. Now. The issue is that 199 00:11:25.960 --> 00:11:29.519 we are at a moment in time where clearly the 200 00:11:29.639 --> 00:11:33.759 central banks were making a big push to destroy the 201 00:11:33.799 --> 00:11:38.279 concept of commercial banking as a as a as a 202 00:11:38.320 --> 00:11:40.679 thing that everything was going to roll going to get 203 00:11:40.759 --> 00:11:44.639 rolled up Agenda twenty thirty style into the IMF and 204 00:11:44.879 --> 00:11:47.200 the World Bank and the UN and all. 205 00:11:47.120 --> 00:11:50.240 Of that, and then digital currencies. 206 00:11:50.039 --> 00:11:53.080 Central bank digital currencies, and you know, Christine Laguard telling 207 00:11:53.080 --> 00:11:54.879 you and I allowed to have a pizza because you're fat, 208 00:11:55.080 --> 00:11:57.120 Like we all know what the what the what what 209 00:11:57.120 --> 00:12:01.159 what that is? Now, my analysis, my argument, has been 210 00:12:01.399 --> 00:12:06.240 very simply under those circumstances, no matter how big and 211 00:12:06.279 --> 00:12:11.960 how terrible the abuses of the commercial banking system have 212 00:12:12.039 --> 00:12:17.399 been under this regime, under this creeping authoritarian centralization of 213 00:12:17.440 --> 00:12:21.200 banking globally, at least amongst the G seven, because we 214 00:12:21.279 --> 00:12:22.840 kick the rush out so was longer the G eight 215 00:12:25.120 --> 00:12:27.919 that that's not what they signed up for. They didn't 216 00:12:27.960 --> 00:12:32.600 sign up for the end of commercial banking. They sign 217 00:12:32.720 --> 00:12:36.120 up for more, more market share for them, more more 218 00:12:36.120 --> 00:12:38.879 big for them, more more, all of that. But they 219 00:12:39.039 --> 00:12:41.919 never in a millionaires that they sign up for, Oh, 220 00:12:41.919 --> 00:12:43.840 we're going to turn it all over to the communists now, 221 00:12:44.399 --> 00:12:49.240 and I mean that word sincerely. So in that framework, 222 00:12:50.960 --> 00:12:53.200 the FED is the best asset. We have to fight 223 00:12:53.320 --> 00:12:57.559 those people, and when they're done breaking those people, then 224 00:12:57.639 --> 00:13:00.879 we can then we have to then we can sit 225 00:13:00.919 --> 00:13:02.480 down and go, Okay, do we really still need a 226 00:13:02.480 --> 00:13:05.080 Federal Reserve in the way it's been currently constituted. I've 227 00:13:05.080 --> 00:13:08.120 actually been arguing when you really stop to break it down. 228 00:13:08.200 --> 00:13:10.399 I've been arguing for bringing the FED back to its 229 00:13:10.440 --> 00:13:15.559 original conception twelve regional banks and as monetary policies, and 230 00:13:15.600 --> 00:13:17.840 devolve the power, devolve the power out of d C 231 00:13:18.519 --> 00:13:21.080 and and devolve the power back into the regions. And 232 00:13:21.240 --> 00:13:24.360 hell if we need thirty or fifty, I don't care 233 00:13:24.480 --> 00:13:26.720 federal reserve banks. It doesn't matter to me. What matters 234 00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:30.600 is is A is A is a refederalization of the 235 00:13:30.639 --> 00:13:35.799 federal reserve. And when I think about it from that perspective, 236 00:13:35.840 --> 00:13:38.879 and I think about J. Powell as a person remember, 237 00:13:38.919 --> 00:13:42.559 I also fundamentally believe in that personnel is policy. Yes, 238 00:13:42.559 --> 00:13:45.399 and so of course OWL is not cut from the 239 00:13:45.440 --> 00:13:51.360 same cloth as Ivory Tower globalist Channing Allen, Ivory Tower 240 00:13:51.480 --> 00:13:52.600 globalist Ben Bernank. 241 00:13:53.440 --> 00:13:55.600 Yeah, Powell's not an economist. 242 00:13:55.600 --> 00:13:59.720 Right well yeahfully and then in some ways thankfully. So 243 00:13:59.840 --> 00:14:03.480 your point about about Treasury secretary is really interesting because 244 00:14:03.480 --> 00:14:05.440 I was on a podcast with Dave Column on Friday 245 00:14:05.639 --> 00:14:07.639 and we were talking about from cabinet, this, that and 246 00:14:07.720 --> 00:14:09.919 everything else, who do you like for Treasury secretary? And 247 00:14:09.960 --> 00:14:13.440 I want, like, my default answer is Ran Paul because 248 00:14:14.120 --> 00:14:20.240 Ran Paul, but he threw out Stan Druckenmiller, interesting because 249 00:14:21.039 --> 00:14:24.759 Stan is a guy that he understands plumbing. He understands 250 00:14:24.799 --> 00:14:27.759 this always made money. He understands how all this stuff works, 251 00:14:27.879 --> 00:14:30.559 and he understands the proper role of if you're going 252 00:14:30.559 --> 00:14:32.559 to have the Central Bank, how that operates, and if 253 00:14:32.600 --> 00:14:35.120 you're going to have a Treasury Department, how that operates. 254 00:14:35.279 --> 00:14:37.639 And I can actually see drunken Miller and Powell getting 255 00:14:37.639 --> 00:14:39.519 together and going, yeah, this sounds good. What do you 256 00:14:39.519 --> 00:14:41.519 guys want? What do we need to do? I can 257 00:14:41.600 --> 00:14:44.240 actually make and make an argument for that, And unfortunately, 258 00:14:44.759 --> 00:14:47.440 it looks to me like that, you know, this is 259 00:14:48.080 --> 00:14:50.639 with the position that you're in with Custodia that I 260 00:14:50.919 --> 00:14:53.360 that I understand to the extent that I understand it 261 00:14:53.399 --> 00:14:57.399 is that you're caught in that terrible transition period and 262 00:14:57.440 --> 00:14:59.840 that there are deals being made left and right and 263 00:15:00.080 --> 00:15:02.200 all of the rest of it, and as everybody is 264 00:15:02.279 --> 00:15:06.120 under you know, everybody is feeling the existential threat. Because 265 00:15:06.159 --> 00:15:08.080 the way I read that press, that question at the 266 00:15:08.120 --> 00:15:12.399 press conference coming from Frankly some chick from Politico sounds 267 00:15:12.399 --> 00:15:16.799 to me like, okay, so Trump wins on Tuesday. On Wednesday, 268 00:15:16.799 --> 00:15:18.759 they start floating the idea that Trump is going to 269 00:15:18.799 --> 00:15:21.519 put Mike Pompeo in a sect death a secretary of 270 00:15:21.639 --> 00:15:27.840 Defense or secretary of State that was obviously been shot down. Yeah, shit, Soday, 271 00:15:27.919 --> 00:15:30.080 It's hey, let's go after the FED. Because I told you, 272 00:15:30.279 --> 00:15:32.000 I think I told you, and I know I told 273 00:15:32.039 --> 00:15:34.879 everybody there were two people that were most in the 274 00:15:34.919 --> 00:15:38.679 crossfire of the Democrats and your favorite person, Elizabeth Warren. 275 00:15:40.240 --> 00:15:42.840 In twenty twenty three, it will be Elon Musk over 276 00:15:42.960 --> 00:15:45.639 free speech, and it'll be it will be Jerome Powell 277 00:15:45.639 --> 00:15:49.919 over the FED not cutting interest rates, and well and 278 00:15:49.960 --> 00:15:52.840 behold here we are. And then you know, it's like 279 00:15:52.960 --> 00:15:55.320 simple if I'm if I'm am I six, or if 280 00:15:55.320 --> 00:15:56.759 I'm the Bank of England, I got news free. I 281 00:15:56.840 --> 00:15:59.480 know exactly what I do on Thursday at the press conference. 282 00:15:59.799 --> 00:16:02.399 I activate the Libertarians to go hog wild and the 283 00:16:02.399 --> 00:16:06.679 FED like it's the perfect it's the perfect forking play 284 00:16:06.679 --> 00:16:07.759 between Trump and his base. 285 00:16:07.879 --> 00:16:10.120 Yeah, I get that. But here's what's interesting is that 286 00:16:10.159 --> 00:16:13.320 they also activated the New York Times set of course, 287 00:16:13.399 --> 00:16:19.240 because because because Powell was the universal reaction to his 288 00:16:19.799 --> 00:16:22.519 to how he answered that question was negative. 289 00:16:22.720 --> 00:16:26.000 Yes, yeah, agreed, agreed, and you know Powell is not 290 00:16:27.000 --> 00:16:32.960 is not a politician at all, like I mean, I mean, 291 00:16:33.120 --> 00:16:37.440 he's very good at at deflecting what his real purpose is. 292 00:16:37.480 --> 00:16:41.960 His real purpose has been shrinked the balance sheet, drain 293 00:16:42.039 --> 00:16:45.720 the offshore dollar markets under the guise of taming inflation. 294 00:16:46.159 --> 00:16:47.960 He's good at that. He's been very good at that. 295 00:16:48.120 --> 00:16:50.399 He's been very good at giving giving that to his staff. 296 00:16:51.600 --> 00:16:53.399 What he did the other what he did the other day, 297 00:16:53.440 --> 00:16:55.919 what he did? What do you what he did the 298 00:16:55.960 --> 00:16:58.600 other day was? I think that was no different than 299 00:16:58.639 --> 00:17:00.679 when they threw the climate change actively at him when 300 00:17:00.679 --> 00:17:02.919 he was at the ECB. And he's he got caught 301 00:17:02.919 --> 00:17:04.920 on the hot mic saying closed the fucking door like 302 00:17:05.880 --> 00:17:09.640 that was him saying, no, I'm not not having. 303 00:17:10.000 --> 00:17:12.599 That's the case. I know where Why did he cut 304 00:17:12.640 --> 00:17:16.119 interest rates? Why didn't he keep being keep along the 305 00:17:16.200 --> 00:17:18.079 vulgar I haven't. 306 00:17:18.279 --> 00:17:21.240 I have a very good answer for that, actually, And 307 00:17:21.279 --> 00:17:23.160 it's one that I've been thinking about because it's it's 308 00:17:23.160 --> 00:17:27.079 a it's a real thing. He raises rates during the 309 00:17:27.119 --> 00:17:30.359 worst banking crisis since Lehman Brothers in March twenty twenty. 310 00:17:30.119 --> 00:17:32.720 Three, which instigated by the way well. 311 00:17:32.680 --> 00:17:35.480 Of course, he did, and that was all, And that 312 00:17:35.519 --> 00:17:37.759 was always part of my argument that they decided to 313 00:17:37.880 --> 00:17:41.119 take out some of these signature oligarch offshore banks that 314 00:17:41.279 --> 00:17:45.480 exist with silver Gate. Yeah, yeah, that and right wrong 315 00:17:45.559 --> 00:17:48.480 or indifferent silver gigs. I've had a long conversation with 316 00:17:48.480 --> 00:17:50.799 Marty ben how he explained that they had the money, 317 00:17:50.839 --> 00:17:54.640 Babba bah, they survived the run. I agree, I agree, 318 00:17:54.839 --> 00:17:58.799 and no argument. And my point here is that but 319 00:17:58.880 --> 00:18:00.839 he raises interest rates then, and then he holds them 320 00:18:00.880 --> 00:18:03.559 there for fifteen months, knowing full well that if you're 321 00:18:03.640 --> 00:18:07.279 going to actually survive this, he can't cut rates, no 322 00:18:07.319 --> 00:18:09.359 matter how bad the commercial real estate market is, no 323 00:18:09.400 --> 00:18:11.920 matter how bad the credit markets on them, how badly 324 00:18:11.960 --> 00:18:15.359 they're seizing, up until it's a foregone conclusion that Kamala 325 00:18:15.359 --> 00:18:17.519 Harrison and the Democrats are not going to win. I 326 00:18:17.559 --> 00:18:20.880 think Powell held it off, cutting interest rates for as 327 00:18:20.880 --> 00:18:23.400 long as possible, and the banks kept the Banks Act 328 00:18:23.480 --> 00:18:25.839 and the big ones I'm talking about Jamie Diamond over 329 00:18:25.920 --> 00:18:29.039 JP Morgan and others, because they all came out and 330 00:18:29.079 --> 00:18:32.720 supported Trump, which was never which was never on the 331 00:18:32.720 --> 00:18:36.720 table before. Yeah, and then in September he cuts by 332 00:18:36.799 --> 00:18:40.279 fifty to let the markets know. Yeah, No, shit's really bad. 333 00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:43.039 I got it wrong. I thought if you cut by 334 00:18:43.039 --> 00:18:45.319 twenty five, the market will sell off, We'll get those 335 00:18:45.359 --> 00:18:47.799 bear steep in er trade and all of that stuff. 336 00:18:47.920 --> 00:18:50.039 I got it wrong. No, it was the right move 337 00:18:50.119 --> 00:18:52.680 to send to the markets. We're cutting hard because we 338 00:18:52.720 --> 00:18:56.839 need to now give the banks back their cookie because 339 00:18:57.119 --> 00:18:59.079 they took a punch in the mouth for eighteen months 340 00:18:59.319 --> 00:19:02.519 over holden rates this high, and now you've got to 341 00:19:02.519 --> 00:19:05.559 cut rates to reliquify the credit markets. And that's why 342 00:19:05.559 --> 00:19:09.519 he cut again on Thursday, and he'll probably cut again 343 00:19:09.920 --> 00:19:13.559 in December twenty five basis points, and we'll see what 344 00:19:13.640 --> 00:19:17.079 happens during the Trump administration. I've been on the opinion 345 00:19:17.119 --> 00:19:19.599 that he's going to cut harder during Trump's term than 346 00:19:19.640 --> 00:19:22.200 he would have on a Harris term, because he wants 347 00:19:22.720 --> 00:19:26.119 if Congress reforms on the fiscal side of things, then 348 00:19:26.200 --> 00:19:30.440 he'll give everybody the room they need to survive, and 349 00:19:30.480 --> 00:19:34.720 he'll take another round of inflation over something far worse 350 00:19:34.759 --> 00:19:36.759 than a credit crisis. And I think that's the that's 351 00:19:36.759 --> 00:19:38.680 the thing, that's the position that he's in, and I 352 00:19:38.720 --> 00:19:41.400 think he's navigated it to this point pretty well from 353 00:19:41.440 --> 00:19:42.359 my looking at it. 354 00:19:42.359 --> 00:19:47.039 From my perspective, well, huge, huge point. He did say 355 00:19:47.039 --> 00:19:50.359 in that press conference last week that he would raise 356 00:19:50.440 --> 00:19:56.799 rates again next year under Trump. So and Maria Bartiromo 357 00:19:56.960 --> 00:20:00.240 and Judy Shelton had a really interesting back fourth I 358 00:20:00.480 --> 00:20:05.480 posted on my Twitter account on Friday. So interesting because 359 00:20:06.000 --> 00:20:08.880 Maria she used to be a never Trumper, and you 360 00:20:08.920 --> 00:20:12.920 know she's she explained, she she she shifted over the 361 00:20:12.920 --> 00:20:16.480 whole Russia Russia, Russia wrestler Russia hoax when she realized 362 00:20:16.519 --> 00:20:19.119 that wasn't legit, and so I think she's actually a 363 00:20:19.119 --> 00:20:23.279 real journalist, but she was asking, she was really trolling, 364 00:20:23.640 --> 00:20:26.599 how over all this are you? How can you possibly 365 00:20:26.640 --> 00:20:29.160 think you're more powerful than the President of the United States. 366 00:20:29.720 --> 00:20:31.640 It's so interesting because I watched her, I think it 367 00:20:31.720 --> 00:20:33.839 was Friday morning, and at the top of every hour 368 00:20:33.920 --> 00:20:36.079 she did that same story in a slightly different way, 369 00:20:36.559 --> 00:20:40.079 and and then she had Judy Judy Shelton on and 370 00:20:40.599 --> 00:20:44.319 she said, look, howel has just broken his own rule, 371 00:20:45.039 --> 00:20:47.839 which is that he's he has officially said the FETE 372 00:20:47.880 --> 00:20:50.279 is not is not supposed to be part of fiscal policy. 373 00:20:50.599 --> 00:20:53.799 But he went out there and threatened Trump and said, 374 00:20:54.079 --> 00:20:57.200 if you're profligate, I may have to raise rates. So 375 00:20:57.240 --> 00:21:00.000 he's cutting rates while he's saying, if your profligate, I am, 376 00:20:59.880 --> 00:21:02.160 I may have to raise rates under you. It's a 377 00:21:02.279 --> 00:21:06.759 huge threat. And again like that's how the universal reaction 378 00:21:06.880 --> 00:21:09.359 that I saw nobody other than you was praising him, 379 00:21:09.519 --> 00:21:10.880 which makes it so interesting for you. 380 00:21:10.920 --> 00:21:12.920 But I would have done it if I weren't fed chair. 381 00:21:13.000 --> 00:21:14.640 This is exactly the way I would have handled it. 382 00:21:15.319 --> 00:21:17.319 He's been sitting there for the last year saying, look, 383 00:21:18.400 --> 00:21:20.640 the fiscal we're on an unsustainable fiscal path, and I 384 00:21:20.680 --> 00:21:22.799 don't have any I don't have any options here that 385 00:21:23.000 --> 00:21:25.839 he's he threw that crap out the window a year 386 00:21:25.839 --> 00:21:28.400 ago when he started saying things like we're on an 387 00:21:28.480 --> 00:21:31.160 unsustainable fiscal path at every press conference, so he was 388 00:21:31.240 --> 00:21:33.279 letting everybody know, and I'm going to keep interest rates 389 00:21:33.319 --> 00:21:37.440 high and then if and that's my argument, he's literally 390 00:21:37.480 --> 00:21:41.960 everybody's everybody melting down over this is missing the broader 391 00:21:42.000 --> 00:21:45.200 picture because everybody is now it's now fashionable to be 392 00:21:45.640 --> 00:21:50.519 anti fed. I'm serious. Clear, Yes, that's clear. It's fashionable 393 00:21:50.559 --> 00:21:51.200 to be anti. 394 00:21:51.000 --> 00:21:53.799 Fedvan on the left now, especially on the left. 395 00:21:53.880 --> 00:21:56.079 But on the left, why because he just took away 396 00:21:56.079 --> 00:21:58.960 their frigging punch bowl by raising interest rates to five 397 00:21:59.039 --> 00:22:01.960 or quarter percent and attempting to bankrupt the Bank of 398 00:22:02.000 --> 00:22:05.200 England and the ECB and everybody else. Of course, we're 399 00:22:05.200 --> 00:22:09.240 getting a media pushback against this that the FED. I 400 00:22:09.240 --> 00:22:11.079 always said, I said, the FED will be the biggest 401 00:22:11.200 --> 00:22:13.240