Speaker 1: Okay, we're live. We are minus Adam, but you've got
me and Brian and I'm awake today. Yesterday I think
I had some kind of heat stroke or something. I
just I just had to lay down. I couldn't get
up out of my bed. So anyways, Brian and Adam
nailed the parlay while I was gone because I had
been losing the parlay legs for a couple of days
in a row. So that's good. And I won my
five percent play, which was nice. So what's up with you? Brian?
Speaker 2: By the way, I like your shirt. That's that's a
nice lucky shirt.
Speaker 1: Thanks.
Speaker 2: You buy all your shirts in Japan.
Speaker 1: I get I get them from I buy them from
the US on eBay. Usually I get some in Japan.
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, we won our parlay yesterday, which was nice,
and it was done pretty early unfortunately well, and I
also wont my free play. Unfortunately, my five dollars play
I lost. Still still can't understand it, but that's thank you.
Christin and he lection to Sean hess by the way,
one of our favorite guys. He used to be in
Las Vegas. He was down in Florida now, but I
wanted to talk about you know, if anybody's following for
the first time. Brandon and I are big hard rock,
heavy metal fans, and yesterday, unfortunately, Ozzie passed away seventeen
days after his last concert, at seventy six years old.
It's funny how for years when he was with Black
Sabbath that people's parents hated him in the whole bit,
and they thought he was a double worshiper and biting
the head off of a bat and a dove and
all that other stuff. He only did those things because
he thought they were props. He didn't realize the bat
was real and the thing he did, and he's pretty
messed up on drugs. What can you say? But ever
since the Osborne's TV show came on, you've seen that
he's just a great dad and a really nice person.
Everybody loves him, and I've heard nothing but good things
from anybody who has ever met him. I've seen Black
Sabbath a few times, and I've seen Auzzi a few times,
always put on a good show. Gonna miss him. I
haven't felt this way since bon Scott passed away when
I was probably eighteen or so. Loved bon Scott. It
really hurt me. It was like a family member. I
know it's music. We've never met these people, but it's
a big part of our lives. And just want to
wish everybody and his family the best and all of
his fans, and yeah, gonna miss him.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he's such a unique voice. He just belted it out.
I started getting into Ozzie right around nineteen eighty I
was nine years old. First album I got by him
was Blizzard of Oz. What a great album. And got
to see him in eighty two when I was eleven,
So yeah, Ozzy. Ozzie was amazing. My second favorite artist
of all time. So he's one of the few people
who was probably more successful as a solo than he
was with a really good band and great Yeah, one
of the all time greats, and he actually surpassed that solo.
You know. Morris's another one who kind of surpassed the Smiths,
but he's not heavy metal, but he surpassed the Smiths
with his with his solo career. But Ozzy, yeah, man,
no one else, no one else, things like that. But
he did a drug or two in his life, so.
Speaker 2: Yeah, two. He's given us a lot of great stories.
If you ever read The Dirt by Motley Crue. They
talk about a few of them. Everybody's got an Aussie story,
so I'm sure they're gonna be a lot of those
out on Twitter and everything on YouTube this week. So
I am looking forward to a lot of the stories. Unfortunately,
the situation is not what we wanted. But let's get
to baseball. What do you want to talk about today?
Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm going to just pick a game that
I think is a really good matchup today. So I
want to talk Brewers and Mariners, two really good pitchers
and two teams that are playing really well. So how
do you see this one shaking out? And then I'll
give you my thoughts after you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Before we get going on today's game, I want
to talk a little bit about yesterday's I had a
doctor's deployment and I got to meet one of our clients,
one of our fans, ken over at the Westgate, real
nice guy from Ohio, and on the way home, I
heard the Ozzie news, but I also heard the Milwaukee
coach was on one of the one of the radio shows,
national radio show for ESPN. They do a really good job.
I think it's loud outs if I remember correctly, but
they had the coach of Milwaukee on there and they
asked him about Miseroski and he said, yeah, he said, unfortunately,
he's pitched. You know, he's thrown a lot of innings
so far in the minors, and so far we're trying
to keep him keeping under control a little bit, and
he's not going to get the full time as a starter.
So being sports better, the first thing I look for
is out for him. And it was fifteen and a half,
but it was like minus two fifty by that time,
and I'm sure it was probably a better number before that.
It was a really good bet even in minus two fifties.
For those people who don't like to lay big numbers,
that one was one of them that even though he
pitched terrific, he didn't give up around. He had had
a whole lot of strikeouts. They pulled him out when
he was head through like sixty pitches. So get that
in mind. Even on I you know, even on the ESPN,
you get some good information once in a while instead
of the talking heads about fictitious things going on. So
that's something to keep in mind if you are in
the car. You know, I love music, but sometimes you
get good information on these baseball shows.
Speaker 1: Yeah went eleven eleven outs, by the way.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And it was fifteen and a half. And
in the announcers talking about it the entire time, he said,
you don't know how long he's going to go. And
I thinking that was the easiest bet ever, even at
two fifty. Okay, today, Priests going against Castillo. Normally I
like to fade a team who is off of a
big winning streak, and that would be fade Milwaukee here.
But that would be the only way I would look.
How you've got Priester going against Castillo. Castillo is about
a one twenty eight favorite seven and a half. Quinn
Priest has been very good for Milwaukee. This is a
team that's turning into the Pittsburgh's, the Cleveland's being able
to develop pitching Priests since he's come over here. He's
eight and two, three point three three ERA, three point
five three, expected, one point two zero whip, his ground
ball percents in the ninety six percentile, which is very good.
Most of his other numbers are mediocre, and he's not
a guy that is going to blow you away for
the most part. But expected the RA sixty eighth percentile.
He's not terrible, excuse me and anything, but he's a
guy that has outperformed his metrics and in the past,
and he's got a great future. Unfortunately, Luis Castillo is
just the opposite three point two to one ERA. That's
the highlight, that's what you expect from his lifetime ERA
is three point five to three, but his expected the
array is over a full run higher four point twenty
six one point two to one whip. If you've seen
him pitch this year, he's not the same. Used to
have a very good four seemer Nowadays, his UH his
average ax of velocity twenty seventh percentile, barrel rate seventeenth,
hard hit rate sixteenth, he's first an extension first percentile
and extension despite being six to two, six to two
is still pretty tall guy, so a lot of time
for the opposition to react to his pitches, and he
doesn't have the same success in his pitches as he's
had in the past. If you take a look at
his fastballs at ninety five point two, which is basically
maybe a half a run better than league average or
in the past he's had, he's had much better success rates.
His strikeout to walk rate this year is only thirteen
point five and league average is just less than sixteen.
So Castillo's a guy who's been very fortunate with that
era so far, but a guy we're looking to we're
looking to fade. That was a hell of a game yesterday,
by the way, both teams pitching well. One hit the
home run I was enough to win it for Seattle.
I think at the current price, we can get Milwaukee
in the in the one fifteen to twenty range. That
would be the way I like. I still like the
way Milwaukee's playing, and I prefer them from the starting
pitcher standpoint.
Speaker 1: So when I run my numbers on this, yeah, Milwaukee,
he seems to have a lot of advantages here. The
team that I completely threw under the bus and trashed
about two weeks ago went on a ten game winning streak.
Speaker 2: After I joged him eleven eleven.
Speaker 1: So yeah, look, they're hitting better, their bullpens playing better,
and they're starting pitchers ranked higher. The one thing about this, though,
is Castillo has some amazing numbers against this team in
his history. However, like you mentioned, he's not exactly the
same shutdown guy that he used to be. But in
seventy three at bats against a one seven eight ERA
against in a six H nine ops. It's pretty amazing numbers.
And to be honest, now if I say this, now,
Milwaukee's gonna go on another ten game winning streak. But honestly,
I don't think their lineup is as good as they're performing.
But now watch them go win ten games in a
row again. But if I were to go anyway, I
would go Milwaukee, but I'm hesitant because Castillo has such
good numbers against him. But are we going to get
twenty twenty Castio or are we going to get twenty
twenty five Castio? Is the question?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: So guys, I have a four percent play out today
in MLB, and Brian always does this show and then
puts his plays out. So when the show's over, do
us a favor. Go to our pages at wager Talk.
I've been doing putting out my PDF projections for pictures.
I didn't do it yesterday because I was laying down
sweating all night, but uh, they're up today, so go
grab those. Go see Brian's page two because he will
have a playout. Do you have any five percent plays
left for this month? Brian? Mine are all gone.
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, oh yeah, plenty. I've only had one a
whole month. I just haven't found places to be able
to plan. I'd like to get them out.
Speaker 1: So check Brian's page. Check Brian's page later. He might
have a five percent.
Speaker 2: Because I didn't find anything strong enough. Four percents I
put once in a while on Yeah, I hadn't want yesterday, unfortunately,
but I did want to point out to Seattle the
last thirty days, Seattle's WRC plus is won twelve and
Milwaukee's won away. So both teams hitting pretty well in
the last month. And yeah, two very good teams. I
expect both these teams to either be in the playoffs
or be fighting for the playoffs, and it should be.
It's been a great series so far. I think we
get another good game tonight.
Speaker 1: And Kristin, thank you for remembering that it's evening where
I'm at. She said, good evening, Tokyo, and good morning Brian.
So there you go, a very thoughtful person out there.
So next game, I think I want to take a
look at is. I'd like to take a look at uh.
We got a comment here. They want to see talk
about the royals and the Cubs. We got Ray going
against Seth Lugo the ex met So Seth Lugo has
been having a really good season so far and Ray's
been a little up and down. Obviously Chicago has the
better lineup, but are they performing currently better? And how
do you see this one shaking out?
Speaker 2: Brian, Yeah, I want to get to the weather reports
a little bit. The rain in Atlanta about forty percent
during game time. We've got about forty percent in Colorado
and about forty to fifty percent in Tampa. Tampa gets
a lot of rain. If you've not been down to
Florida area, they get a lot of rain, but it's
in short bursts, so the rain then all of a sudden,
it's good. It's just the way Florida is, the way
Bahamas is. Uh. In Chicago tonight, the wind is blowing
out twelve miles an hour, and that's something you know
a lot of people want to take a look at
to see how that goes, because that's a major factor
when you go into the called the winny city for
a reason. Seth Lugo two point nine to four era
expected are a four point seven to one point h
nine whips, so he's not been nearly as good as
his numbers suggest. In fact, the only thing he's better
than on the stackcast page better than average is his
walk great sixty seventh percentile strikeout to walk right is
fourteen point five less than what the average is. And
he's got a lot of blue on his on his card.
So as much as I've liked him because he doesn't
give up a lot of home runs, he is a
guy who pitches much better in Kansas City and then
on the road. Kenisy is a very good pitcher's park
for the most part, except for this year. Been more
home runs coming there. But he's a guy that we're
looking to fade a little bit in this situation, and
he's going up against Colin Ray, who continues to pitch
pretty well and never gets much credit. Eight wins already
the season after twelve last year. He's got a thirty
four and twenty three career record in seven seasons. That's
pretty impressive. Is era four point four to four not
so much so. Teams must be hitting when he pitches
in his career. While his ere are now was three
point eight zero, he's expected aras four point nine to three.
So he's been a little bit lucky one point to
a whip, and he's very good in his walk grade
seventy fifth percentilex sension sixty ninth. Everything else is in
the blue struck out minus walk grade ten point seven.
So we've got two guys here that have produced a
lot better than what they should have, and we've got
the wind blowing out in Chicago. I guess I had
twelve miles an hour to the to center and left center,
that kind of thing. And this game open ten overnight
ten minus twenty. It's now up to ten and a half,
ten and a half, and it's still a little bit cheaper.
The side for three area is about one fifty five,
so got one fifty five ten and a half. I
prefer the over because there's gonna be a regression coming
to both these guys. Kansas City is not a very
good hitting team, but they've been very hot lately offensively,
and the Cubs have one of the deepest lineups in
Major League Baseball, if not the best. I like this
game to go over. We're not getting the ten, but
we do get ten and a half. We're paying ten
cents less for it, but that would be the way
I play this when this is an afternoon game. But
by the way, first, a lot of afternoon games today
first game goes about twelve known Eastern. A lot of
them happened during the day. We've had a lot of
night games lately, a lot of day games. Today is
it's getaway day, yeah, and now getaway day for the
most part, it is usually a day you want to
play unders on. But I think the way this game
sets up, I like the over here.
Speaker 1: I can't argue with that. Yeah, bullpen, Chicago's bullpen or
Kansas City's bullpen has been pretty trash lately. In their
lineup is hitting really well right now? What did Pez
have two home runs yesterday or the day before? So, yeah,
they're smashing it really well right now. And the Cubs
are not. I have them ranked nineteen out of thirty
in current form, but they're obviously a lot more talented
than that, and they can put up eight runs a game.
They if all one through nine were all clicking on
all cylinders. They are a juggernaut, but not quite hitting
in current form. So I've got Lugo ranked fourteen out
on a curve of thirty, and i got Colin Ray
ranked fifteen on a curve of thirty, so pictures starting pictures,
I got him pretty equal. But the Cub's bullpen playing
better than Kansas City's. But both of these bullpens are
ranked under fifteen, so they're both below average as far
as the current form is concerned according to my rankings.
So yeah, I wouldn't argue with an over in this one.
I don't see either team with a real huge advantage
on the side. But obviously the Cubs are better. But
according to me, I think Seth Lugo's better than Ray,
So a lot of pushes and pulls there, which means
I'm not going to play aside, but I wouldn't argue
with your over. Okay, next game we are going to
talk about is the one that everyone wants to talk about,
is Yankees and Blue Jays. Before we get to that,
I got a four percent play, Brian might have a
four percent play up later today. Check our pages, guys
and go to the replay of this show and give
a comment and a like. It tells Wager Talk that
you like our show and we might get promotions. So
how do you like the Yankees and Blue Jays shaping
up today? Brian?
Speaker 2: Yankees and blue Jay is Freed going for the Yankees.
He's been pushed back a little bit. He blister, and
he's had to deal with a blister. And that's the
funny thing about baseball is you get these real tough
guys playing playing in other sports, and you know, all
the things are go through hockey players, football players, and
a guy could be on the bench because of a
blister on his finger if he's a pitcher in Major
League Baseball, it's kind of funny. Or sometimes a broken fingernail.
But he's gone up against Bassett right now. Freed is
about a one thirty five favorite, eight and a half
on the total. Freed on the season, eleven and three.
You know, he's a the last three years he's got
thirty wins and only fourteen losses, and last year he
was eleven and ten, So it tells you how good
he's been in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty five.
Two point four to three ERA this year one point
oh one whip expected dra full run higher three point
four to three, A lot of red on his stat
cast page eighty nine percent, Tireland walk grate eighty seventh,
exter velocity eighty eighth in ground ball percent, doesn't give
up a lot of home runs, strikeout to walk ratio,
which is key to me, seventeen point six. That's good,
it's a very good. We'd like that. Then we take
a look at Chris Bassett. Chris Bassett ten and four
in the season, a third straight year. It's been around
eleven years now, last three years, he's won thirty six
total games. He's a he's a guy that gives you
innings two hundred seventy one and already won thirteen this year,
one point three six, whip three point nine expected dra
right on where his era is on the season. Actually
average ex velocity ninety fourth percentile, he keeps people off
balanced walk grade eighty third, already hit rate eighty seventh.
His walk grade is only five point nine percent and
sixteen point three slightly better than league average when it
comes to strike out minus walk rate. Like both these pitchers,
and I think with the current line of where it is,
I think there's slight value on Toronto here to catch
them as how do they as hog ha they been
in the one twenty plus one twenty range. Like them
a little bit here, I would expect this to be
a lower scoring game. The line tells you that at
eight and a half, considering how powerful these two offenses
can be, and the and the Toronto is right now
slightly in with Toronto, probably won't get involved. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I like Max Freed a lot. Isn't it interesting that
his name is spelled Fried but it's pronounced Freed. I
always thought that was interesting, but it actually is spelled Fried,
So anyway, it's Fried Chicken. So looking at his numbers
against the Blue Jays unbelievable. I mean, he's got a
one to eighty four average against in a four to
sixty five ohps in his career. And Freed is pitching
pretty well this season. He's not walking too many people.
He's not striking out a lot, which is kind of concerning.
I think his last few games he's only had like
three or four strikeouts in his starts. If I'm not mistaken,
not looking at it right now, but I just off
the top of my head, because I do have a
future on him to get a certain amount of strikeouts
this season, so I always check. But I've noticed that
they're a little low. But he does have great numbers
against these guys, and Bassett has terrible numbers against the Yankees.
But Bassett's been pitching really well this season. He's got
a three zero four average against and at eight ninety
three ops against in his career, mainly mainly the people
doing the damage against him, Aaron Judges eight five for
eighteen with the home run. Grisham has two home runs
against him. So those two guys watch out for them today.
Perhaps I've got these teams almost even though when you
match them up. Although New York does have a big
starting pitcher advantage, I think Toronto has the bullpen advantage
because the Yankees bullpen has really been underperforming. It was
one of their strengths coming into the season, I thought,
but definitely not one of their strengths right now. I
got them ranked fifteen right on the Mendoza line, where
I have Toronto's ranked two, And they're probably ranked that
high because they're winning so many games and they're using
their good guys instead of thrown in there. They're guys
who don't matter in a losing effort just to get
the game over with. So yeah, winning teams will use
their better guys, right, So naturally their bullpen numbers will
look higher in current form, which is one of the
downfalls of doing it my way, the current form way.
But anyways, I got these teams pretty even. If any
if anything, I would look at an under here. And
I know that sounds crazy because these two teams just
whack the crap out of the ball, and this is
a hitter's park, so I know it sounds crazy, But
if anything, I would take an under because I like Freed. Freed,
we got we got the better pitcher going against the
better performing lineup at the moment, and and the Blue
Jays bullpen is just performing great. So if anything, I'd
look at it under. But I haven't played it as
of yet. Quick though, again, yeah, go for it.
Speaker 2: Question for you. When you look at the w RC
results RC plus results for the thirty days, Toronto was
number two at one nineteen. The New York Yankees are
number three, tied with the Cubs at one sixteen. Uh
do you happen to know? And I'm sure you've probably
got a good idea because you make your own numbers.
Who leads Major League Baseball now over the last thirty days.
Speaker 1: In w r C plus w r C plus I
think might be uh, would it be uh?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 1: Guerrero?
Speaker 2: No, the team.
Speaker 1: Oh what team Toronto?
Speaker 2: No, Toronto's Toronto and the Yanks are two and three?
Speaker 1: Oh? Sorry the lead on? Is it the Brewers?
Speaker 2: Way now? They were like for the Angels. The Angels
there plus one three. It was surprised to be too.
Speaker 1: I know that. Uh.
Speaker 2: They've been hitting a lot of rounds.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 2: And they're like an underdog like every day now it
seems to be. So you're getting a really good hitting
team in the underdog role. And and if you don't mind,
I kind of like to talk about this game, which, Yeah,
let's do it. Let's do it.
Speaker 1: I was going to do Diego, do San Diego next?
I promise guys, which game is it?
Speaker 2: Angels in the Mets?
Speaker 1: Angels in the Mets? Yeah, please go for it. Go
for guys, what do our replay? And leave a comment
and leave a like, go for it?
Speaker 2: Right, A couple left. He's going today, Bert going for
the Angels, Manea going for the Mets. Mets are a
pretty good sized favorite here about one seventy four maybe
eight and a half on the total. But anytime you
can catch an Angel Towian an angel team like this
in the underdog role. They've been very good at this
all steason long. Brock Burke comes in four on one
record three point three eighty RA a spectator RA three
point nine to five, very similar. His whip's a little
high at one point three seven. He's ninety first in
ground ball percent and eighty first extension. The only problem
is this is probably one of the worst home run
ballparks in Major League Baseball. You don't get a lot
of home runs in New York, so the ground ball
rate may be wasted. But you've still got a team
in Burke and the Angels that I think have some values.
Chase rates only in the fifteenth percentile hard hit rate
thirty seconds, so he can be hit a little bit.
But this year he's doing pretty well. In His ERA
in five seasons is three point nine to three, which
is not bad at all going up against Sean Manaya,
and I like Maneya. He's come in this year. He's
started one game and then he was a piggyback the
other game two point four to five ERA, two point
three to zero expected, one point nine whip. He's been
very good, but it is a limited amount of innings.
His extension is in the eighth fourth percentile. Brek out
to walker ratio right now is about the biggest this year.
I ever going to see h forty one point nine
percent strikeout rate, six point five percent walk great thirty
five point four. That's not going to last. And I
think we could start fading Manea a little bit here.
His strikeout rate in his career is twenty two point six.
He's it's almost twenty percent higher this year in his
small sample size of only seven and the third innings.
The metsro team. I like the pitching on this team,
but they still are not hitting like they should be.
And I talked about the Angels being number one at
one twenty two. Let's see what the Mets are New York.
Met's twenty third at ninety three. So you've got basically
twenty nine percent better offense over the last month, and
you're getting a competent pitcher on the mound, and you're
getting them in the plus one fifty range. I think
the Angels have some value today.
Speaker 1: Could not agree more. And the Angels are one of
those teams that the books just always slight because they're
a bad team generally. But the Angels are a bad
team because they're pitching and actually they have a kind
of stigma attached to them as for being a bad team,
but that's mostly because Mike Trout's always injured when he's
in that lineup. Man, they're pretty good. And I mean
they got rid of Moniac. You know, he's he's crushing
it with Colorado too. I mean, but yeah, this is
a really good lineup. As a matter of fact, my
stats have them ranked number four in MLB in current form,
where I got the Mets ranked twenty three. And if
you look at how Maneas performed against these guys, manaya
minea banana, tomato. Tomato. Anyways, if you look how he's
performed against these guys, it's not very well. He is
a three to twenty one average against in a nine
eighty six OPS against. I always say the seven fifty
is about my Mendoza line for ops and the guys
who have been doing the damager Mike Trout nine for
twenty one twenty nine average and a fourteen seventy two OPS.
You guys, maybe look for Mike Trout. His hits runs RBIs.
If you can grab a one and a half over
for that, that would definitely be good. But I have
a feeling the books will make that two and a
half for him, so I would lay off that and
let's see who else is doing damage against miney that's
mostly Mike Trout. Uh So I like the Angels too,
and I think I'm gonna make this my parlay piece.
I'm gonna take the Angels team total over three and
a half for the parlay piece. I think the odds
were minus twenty when I saw it. But do you
do you what do you see it as?
Speaker 2: I've got three and a half minus anywhere from one
twenty to one twenty five.
Speaker 1: Okay, so I'll say one twenty two then, just to
be fair, and so that'll be my parlay piece. We'll
recap it at the end, guys. So Brian will throw
his out. He's been winning his parlay pieces. I've been
losing mind. But hopefully today we can.
Speaker 2: We can.
Speaker 1: We can win win, which is why I was absent
yesterday and Adam and Brian won. So that was nice.
H I say, uh, I say the Brewers suck and
they go on a ten game winning streak and then
I leave the show for a day and they hit
the parlay So isn't that how it goes?
Speaker 2: If we hit it? Today. Then we then we can
figure out, yeah, what what's going on? We lose today,
then then that's a bad thing. But hopefully then I
know it's not me.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna talk about the Padres and Marlins next
and this game is an enigma. But before that again,
go to our pages at wager Talk, guys, because we're
gonna have plays out. I already have mine and Brian's
gonna have his. Two of the best baseball cappers Adam
include Adam, we are we are the three best baseball
cappers on the planet. I'm number one in twenty twenty
five and Brian is wager Talk's number one baseball lifetime.
So you got two guys to two good guys to
roll with here, and we always put free plays up
as well. Visit our pages, and now Brian is going
to talk about the Padres and the Marlins cease.
Speaker 2: Going for the Padres Alecanteria going for Miami cease is
about one fifty favorite right now, gone up a little
bit since the one forty five opener. We're looking at
eight to the under in this game. I don't know
if I mentioned it on this show, but I talked
about second half of the season on something I did
and spoke about Dylan Ceas was a guy who wanted
to play. He comes out last time and strikeouts no
walk's great game. He's been terrific over the years. Three
point eighty five Evra one point two six whip. He
struck out my Schalk Ray show right now on the
season twenty one point six. Last year it was twenty
point nine. He's been assistant the last five or six years.
On what he has done, he's been very good and
he had a lot of bad luck earlier. Comes in
with a four point six y four era expected the
era three point four to six, so over a one
run better at one point three all whip. It's always
been a little bit of a concern as he does
walk some batters and if he falls behind and you're
a pretty good hitter, he doesn't want to groove anything
to you, so I'll put you on base. There's been
a few guys that have done this over the years
and it works for them, and but that's one something
that he's known for. He's in his seventh season and
he's got a lot of red on his on his
stetcass cards fifth percent ninety four percent strikeout eighty nine,
chase for eight eighty nine, fastball velocity eighty seventh. He
throws six pitches, but really his slider he is at
forty seven percent. His four team is at forty one percent.
His four teams at ninety seven point one percent, which
is over a miles per hour, which is about three
per hour higher than what the normalist. So he can
get away with throwing a lot of fastballs because he's
got a very good fastball. Normally guys who throw a
lot of fastballs I don't like. But if you can
hit that range, the Miseri Misraski range that we saw
last night, that kind of thing, it definitely works. I
like him, I want to play him. The problem is
the line is a little bit higher than what I
feel comfortable with. Sandya Alcaterra seven point one four ERA,
five point one zero expected. So he's been bad, no
doubt about it. Even with the five point one OHO
expected the era, he has not been good, but he
is due to some positive aggression. He's got a one
point four to nine whip and that's really really bad.
His struck out my schalker Raytiow is seven point eight,
which is clearly bad. It's got that great fastball ninety
first percentile he throws at twenty three percent, along with
a sinker twenty four percent and a change set twenty one.
So he's got five pitches, which is why you know
most guys like him. But he's had trouble this year
coming back from UH from injuries sitting out last season.
Hasn't put it all together. It's amazing that he's been
able to. He's struggled to do this where somebody like
the UH the Brewers pitcher has come back and just
as he started, he's been great. So it's everybody comes
back from injuries differently, he still has not come back
very strongly. I like the Miami team for a value standpoint,
but I like Cease. I think he's got a huge
advantage in the starting pitcher situation. Probably a way to
play it in that regard maybe play Miami team total
under for the first half or something. But I want
to get to Cease. But I don't want to lay
the one fifty as a road favorite here because as
we pointed out before, we like this Miami team and
they do have some pretty good hitters.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the way I'm looking at this one I've got
the hitting kind of even here, and let's see. Oh sorry,
I got well, I got the guys backwards. Hang on,
we got Ceason al Cantra. Yeah, okay, I'm okay, guys,
I'm multitasking. You guys know I'm not real good at that.
So yeah, I got the hitting pretty even. Miami's hitting
quite well. San Diego obviously more talented, but Miami's kind
of on a surge right now. I got both bullpens
pretty even as well. The only real big discrepancy I
see in this game is Cease over al Cantra, but
it's not a big enough difference to make me play
the game. But man, san Diego is just a lot
more talented. I really want to go with san Diego,
but can't because the difference just not big enough for me.
So I'll probably be laying off of this game. I
think Brian broke it down better than I could even
imagine breaking it down, so I will go to the
next game. By the way, you guys, you can at
my page you can download all of my picture projections
and that includes uh walks, hits, outs, recorded strikeouts, all
of that. Now, I'm not gonna say that it's one
hundred percent accurate. But it's the same stats I used
when I was an MLB scout, and they've let me
have four winning years out of the last five years
at wager talk. So I think you know nothing nothing.
You can't you can't base your bet on just stats.
You have to you have to use an eyeball test
as well. But these will maybe steer you in a way.
If you're thinking about betting something and you know, kind
of hesitating, maybe this will push you over the line
and get you get you a win, hopefully. Let's touch
on uh. Let's touch on the Detroit Tigers game today.
So the Tigers are going against Pittsburgh and uh, I
was very surprised to see mys get get tagged that
bad yesterday. I didn't expect that. But today they got
Milton going against Falter. And now I don't know anything
about Milton, So maybe you know more about him than
than I do. If you don't know anything about him
and you're not gonna cap it, we'll move on to
a different game. But do you do you have thoughts
on this game?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Great, We've got Melton against Falter. Falter, the lefty
Melton comes in about a one forty five favorite total
of nine to the under twenty. I mentioned that show
that I had watched yesterday or listen to it yesterday,
and they have a lot of the coaches on. They
had the Detroit and they asked him, They said, you've
got so much depth in starting pitching in Detroit. Why
what can you tell us about Melton? He said, well,
he goes. I like the guy at a spring training
he said, I knew he'd be a guy for our future.
He's twenty four years old, he's already's six foot four
to two hundred and ten pounds. Take a loot is
look at his career in the minors. His career, he's
twelve and twelve, three point sixty three RA one point
two four whip. It's tough to look at that overall
in make a judgment. He was with the both the
Eerie ce Dogs and the Toledo mud Hunts this year.
Good Ara both times. Hasn't thrown a lot of innings
seventy five innings or so overall, but he does have
a lot of strikeouts. He's a guy that's got one
hundred and one strikeouts so far this year and only
seventy five innings, so he's going to come into this
game and the coach they kind of talked about young
pitchers coming into meajor of the baseball and the mistake
that they make is they come in here and they've
got a really good fastball. They're a really big strikeout
picture like Melton, and the coaches always tell them, you know,
you had a lot of success in them minors, but
these guys have been around a long time. They can
hit a fastball. A lot of times. The guy will come,
he'll get so, he says, what happened? He says, I
told you that they could hit your fastball. He goes,
I didn't think they could hit my fastball. Yeah, I
got a lot of guys have a lot of arrogance,
of these twenty year old kids. You know, it's it's like, hey,
I'm different than that last guy, those last hundred guys
that did this, but.
Speaker 1: We all think that in your way. I think sometimes yeah,
but at that level, you have to be like you
have to think like that or you can't get to.
Speaker 2: That arrogant and that that you're you're not making this
to the pros. You've got to have some exactly something
like that. Pushing you. Uh Britty Falter comes at Bailey
fulkerscuse me six or five records four point zero zero,
I'll expect are expected four point five one point two
two whip great extension ninety six percentile. He's six foot four,
twenty eight years old here, so his pitches get on
you in a hurry. The problem is the other team
has no problem hitting them. Chase rates six percentile, with
right six percentile, walk grate fourth percentile, hard hit fifteenth.
He's got five pitches, throws a sports seemer forty six
percent of the time. But it's not dominant. He's only
ninety two point one miles an hour. It's it's two
miles an hour worse than your normal major league hit,
major league pitcher, and he throws it fifty percent of
the time. That's what I don't like. Totally. Winning this game, obviously,
is what we're going to take a look at here.
Nine to the under twenty. It's an early game. Gives
me reason to take the over here. Let's take a
look at what Detroit and Pittsburgh have done in over
the last month here in WRC plus, Pittsburgh dead last
seventy nine. Detroit's tenth at one five, but Pittsburgh for
some reason, is hitting pretty well lately. I think this
game going over. I think we can get to ten
runs between these two, especially that since de Troyce got
a guy up there who hasn't pitch in the majors before,
he's alrighty and if he followed me in the past,
I like to play lefties who are making their major
league debut and playing for a while, because you don't
see as many lefties as you do. Right he's about
thirty percent of the time you get a lefty out there,
and so teams don't know as much about him. The
coach said, they go and and nowadays they should know
everything about him because you see everything out there and
you've got scouts, but until you actually face these guys,
you don't know what they have. And him stepping up
the class here, even though it's the Pyrus and they're
probably the worst offensive baseball, I think he's going to struggle.
So give me the over. Nine is probably a game
I'm going to take a look at here.
Speaker 1: Yeah, going those same sentiments, both of these both of
these bullpens are performing horribly right now, so oh I'm sorry, Wait,
both of these. Yeah, sorry, no, no, no, the bullpens
are performing quite average. But I got Bailey Falter ranked
twenty six out of thirty on a curve of thirty.
And if you look at how he's performed against the
Tigers in his career, three forty eight average against in
a twelve forty five ops against. That's twenty three at bats,
which is not a huge sample size, but it's at
least one start and it tells you that in well,
it's it's almost two starts, so it tells you that
they've smacked him around pretty good. I would think about
the Detroit team total, but it's along the same sentiments
as Brian's game over. Detroit's team total over also would
be a good play I think here, even if it's
four and a half. Detroit bats are a little cold
right now, but Pittsburgh's are cold as well. But nothing
like a little Bailey Falter to wake up your bats
that certainly. Yeah, it's like a it's like a it's
like the joker said in Batman, this town needs an enema. Well,
Bailey Falter will be the the Detroit bats enemas. I think,
so maybe the Detroit total over in that game would
be a decent play.
Speaker 2: I think.
Speaker 1: Next, I would like to talk about Bryan's favorite team.
Uh and uh the Cleveland soon to be Indians currently
Guardians team. And uh so when when when you do Cleveland?
When you cap Cleveland games are do you completely throw
away your fandom or are you just hoping they won?
Speaker 2: Yeah? When it comes to my money, I have no fantom.
Usually I go against my teams more often than I
go on them, all right, But yeah.
Speaker 1: Since a Guardians fan, that's been easy to go against
him lately.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not a Guardians fan. I'm an Indians fan.
I don't mention Guardians once I have to. I used
to call him the cage you got. Definitely Eppelin going
for Baltimore coming back from injury to Coney for Cleveland
to Coney is about a one twenty five favorite eight
and a half. Here I talked about last yesterday, I
talked about how bad that Baltimore defense was Loreano. It's
it's funny because Loreano has hit three home runs I think,
in the last two games, and he probably should have
like four errors. Anything he does offensively he gives back defensively,
and it's it's been funny. I feel terrible for the
guy because obviously he may get traded. He wants to
show what he can do, and he's having a hell
of an offensive season. But defensively, oh my god, he's
been athetic, but definitely comes in five point nine five
era expected ERA four point two six. So he's pitching
a lot better than he is what he's shown his career.
I RA is four point two seven, but last few
years twenty three and twenty four he was in mid threes,
So I like this guy. He's not going to blow
you away with his strikeouts or anything. In fact, his
strike out rate is only fifteen point six, but he
only walks four point one, and that's the big deal.
Here here's his walk percentages the last five years four
point one, three point five, three point four, four point eight,
three point five. When you don't put people on base,
you can have a really nice career. Even though you're
forcing fastball, you only throw a thirteen percent of the time,
because it's ninety one point nine percent. I like him.
He's having a bad year, but now that he's back
from injury, I expect him to really improve. Here ninety
seventh percentile in in walks by the way, seventy fifth
percent town chase rate. He's not a lot a lot
of people want to bet on him. And I've talked
about this in the past when guys are not mixed,
strikeout guys because it makes a lot of sense, because
more get play, more balls in play may give you
a chance to give up more hits. And especially the
way this Baltimore defense has been this week. You know,
I don't get a chance to watch every Baltimore's game,
but this week they've looked really bad. But I like
Ethlyn and I think he's going to have a little
bit of success here. CHACONI three point eight four a
ar A four point seven to one expected, so he's
been a little bit lucky. A one point twenty three
whip walk rate is good. It's the only red thing
on his card. Seventy three percent walk rate, seventy three
percent walk percentile, shrekout minds, walk y show fifteen point one,
not the greatest one, less than normal. But he his
average euxivelocity, fifth percentile chase rates, barrel rights sixth, hard
hit nine. After all of that, I want to either
play on Baltimore or I want to play Baltimore team
total over or I want to play Cleveland team total under.
I may be using one of these as my parlay.
I'll wait on that, but there's different ways to play
this game. But I like the Baltimore Orioles to finally
salvation one of these games in the series.
Speaker 1: So yeah, unfortunately, I'm gonna have to disagree with you
on this one. I'm not a big fan of e Flyn,
and actually I've never been a fan of Taconi either.
I mean, I'm from Arizona. I wouldn't say I'm a
Diamondbacks fan, but I watched most of their games, and
when he was with Diamondbacks, I couldn't stand him, and
now I don't like him either. But the Orioles they're
hitting and their bullpen are both ranked really really low,
like really low, and Cleveland's are ranked quite high. I've
got Cleveland's lineup rank seven right now, and then I
got their bullpen rank eight. I do have Tony rank
twenty out on a curve of thirty, so that is
a little bit of a concern. Might be looking at
it over here, but I don't know if Baltimore can score.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 1: I would have to lean Cleveland, but it's hard to
think that they're going to sweep this team. So yeah,
I probably won't play it. But man, all my signs
point towards Cleveland for some odd reason, even though I
really haven't liked them for a while. So I probably
won't play that game. By the way, Brian, just for
education for the people who might be watching the show
for the first time, when you say ninetieth percentile and
fiftieth percentile which is good, which is bad?
Speaker 2: Yeah, the higher percent well, it depends on what category
is in the higher percentile. If you're a pitcher or
you want you want to have, obviously you're the higher
the better the things that are. It's red and blue.
If you go to MLB dot com and you you
go to the Baseball Savant page, it'll show you everybody's
breakdowns got hitters as well as pictures. If we had
like a three hour show every day, I could get
into the pit the hitters a lot more than what
we do here. But for example, Chaconi's seventy third percentile
on walk great. Anything about fifty means you're better than
the league average. Anything worse than fifty means you're worse.
So if I say he's in the fifth percentile of
average Exavlosi, that means ninety five percent of baseball pitchers
are better than he is in that regard. So that's
the way to be able to read that. And I
do want to point out yesterday's game because Cleveland has
been winning in the series, you haven't seen a lot
of the Orioles better bullpen guys yesterday. Class A got
to say we only pitched only through the thirteen pitches,
hadn't pitched the previous three. He'll be there tonight. Me
Gaddis will be there. But Kate Smith threw thirty one
pitches yesterday and Eric Stebrowski, a good young lefty the
tribe i'll call him, is brought up the last couple
of years. He threw twenty three pitches. So neither one
of them will probably pitch today. But the key Baltimore
bullpen guys should be able to pitch because they haven't
been winning and so they should be a little bit fresher.
Speaker 1: Sounds good again. I'm going to promo the heck out
of it because we've got lots of time and Adam's
not here, So you me and Adam are probably the
only three guys on the planet that could just sit
here and talk for about baseball for three hours, but
are not our fans. Our chat seems to enjoy the
baseball just like us, And this is the audience that
we wanted, is people who like to deep dig into
it and geek out on baseball. So we appreciate you guys.
And Kristen, thank you your sweetheart sending memberships and money
and all that for another guy's birthday. I appreciate that.
So we're going to talk about the Astros and Diamondbacks here.
Two Well, one team that's always good. The Diamondbacks started
the season really, really good, and they've tailed off. Some
people were talking in the first two weeks of the
season that the Diamondbacks might win that division. Now they
have a losing record, so yeah, well, how do you
see this one shaking out? I mean, one team is
perennially playoff bound and the other went to the World
Series a couple of years ago and has plummeted a
little bit since then.
Speaker 2: Well, the Diamondbacks are two games under five hundred, but
they're plus fifteen ian scoring differential, so that's something you
have to keep in mind, Cleveland is playing five hundred
ball and they're minus thirty five, so two things. There
are two things too, and many things that you need
to look at when you are breaking down these teams are.
But Arizona is playing better as of late. I still
think they need to pick up at least one starting pitcher,
but we'll see at the trade deadline what they do,
being as you mentioned, like fourth place in that division.
Brandon Fought is the pitcher for Arizona. He started off
the second half and he came out on the pitch
very well. Walter left he going for Houston. Current line,
Arizona is about a one twenty favorite one twenty two total,
eight and a half to the under. Brandon Walter has
been a guy that we have loved because he doesn't
want anybody. But yet he's one in three on the season.
Even with the three point sixty six ERA zero point
nine to six whip SPEC to DRA two point ninety five,
they haven't hit for him. He's got a lot of
red on the sackcast page, which means good things walk
great one hundred percentile. He only walked one point six
batters per one hundred, so he's his walk percentage one
point six percent, strike up percent twenty five point three.
Heis him a twenty three point seven strike up minus
walk ray show excellent. His fastball velocity is only a
thirteenth percent, so that's what he's bad at. Eighty seven
percent of major league pitchers are better at throwing a fastball.
Where he's getting basketball fastball velocity that he is he
throws he throws at ninety one point nine just like
the other gentleman spoke about a few minutes ago. He
only throws at nineteen percent of the time, which is good.
He's got five pitches. He throws double digits. That's what
I like, and that's one of the reasons why I've
been back in him. He's one of those lefties that
nobody knew about. Came out of the bullpen in a
twenty twenty, played nine games twenty three innings pitched, comes
back this year as a starter, and he's had a
lot of success in that regard for himself. Unfortunately, as
I mentioned, he's won in three in those games, so
the Astros haven't taken advantage of it. He's opposing Brandon Fott,
a guy who's really been really up and down this year.
And if you take out his stat let's take a
look at the stack that's page you see why ninety
thirty percent tile on walk grate only walks five per game,
only strikes out in nineteen point seven though, so he
comes in a fourteen point seven chase rights sixty seventh
percentile extension sixty six. He six foot four, gets the
ball on the ball on you in a hurry. Unfortunately.
Expected batting average second percentile, first percentile expected batting average
second percentile, ERA second percentile average eggs of Vlassi, third
barrel rate, fourth hard hit rate. When he gets hit,
he gets hit damn hard. And that's been the problem
with his four point eight two e er. He's very
up and down. If you play Fantasy baseball, or if
you're a fan of Arizona, you know, one minute this
guy could look great. The next minute you wonder why
he's still in the rotation. That is always my concern
with these guys. You'd like to be in more of
a situation when you're putting your money up there, you
know what you can bet on and what you're sure of,
at least as sure as you can be. That's the
problem with him is you never know what you're going
to get, As Forrest Gump would say, So, I am
going to pass on this game, and I like Walter,
but the team doesn't just for some reason hasn't been
scoring for him, So prefer the dog. But Arizona's batch
are pretty hot.
Speaker 1: Right now, I'm going to pass on this game too.
And before you guys complain, why do you talk about
games that you're passing on instead of giving us free plays. Look,
we would not be experts if we had a bet
on every single game, but we want to give you information.
The purpose of the show is to give you information
from professional kapper's minds so you can make good decisions
as well, not just buy our plays, but also make
your own decisions. So Brian just talked and gave a
lot of good information without giving without saying he's going
to play the game, and I'm about to do the
same as well. So hopefully you guys can use this
information and make bets as well. Because we don't always
have an we don't always have a strong enough opinion
to bet on a play. So here's my opinion on this.
Brendan Fott is just he's so erratic. I mean, you
look at his stats. He's just up and down all
over the place. I have him ranked twenty one out
of thirty pictures, which is almost towards the bottom on
a curve of thirty. But he's got seriously elite control.
He doesn't walk people, and he strikes people out. I mean,
usually a pitcher with who strike who walks only nineteen
percent of the guys he strikes out, Usually that pitcher
is gonna have really good numbers and really good expected numbers.
And the problem with pot is his expected numbers are
through the roof. I mean, he's he's actually getting lucky
and he doesn't even have good that good of numbers,
and he's getting lucky on top of that, but he's
not walking anyone. So what does it mean. It means
when when people hit the balls he pitches, they're they're
crushing those balls. So, like Brian said, he could come
out and look like Nolan Ryan in one game, and
then he can come out, you know, and look like
the big Sexy on his next one. Right, so you
know you know who the big sexy is, right? What
was his name? The Mets pitcher who came out and
hit a home run that one time totally overweight guy.
Speaker 2: What was his name?
Speaker 1: Oh, you know what I'm talking about. They called him
the Big Sexy But anyways, I forgot his name. Yeah,
someone will put it in the chat.
Speaker 2: Probably one of my favorite players at the time.
Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, yeah, Bartolo Cologne. Thank you, Christin Wow Kristen
Fast on the response there. Not only is she giving
us memberships and money, she's answering our quiz question. Thank you, Ethan,
you got it too. Walks over for five. I don't know, man,
you should check his walks ratio. It's pretty low. I
don't know if I would do that, but I do
think he's He's a very inconsistent picture and I don't
like to battle him. And Brandon Walter actually has a
better walk ratio. So neither one of these pictures. Neither
one of these pictures walk people, and they have decent
strikeout walks to strikeout ratios. Both lineups are hitting really well,
and both bullpens are rather mediocre. So if anything, I
would go over on this one, but I am not
going to play it. So we got two minutes left.
So do you have a parlay piece?
Speaker 2: I do have my parlay piece, and yay, let's talk
about that.
Speaker 1: Is it a game we've covered already?
Speaker 2: Is the game we've covered? So I'll be brief, but
I do want to point out yesterday I'd asked everybody,
we both asked everybody to get into the get in
there and tell us, you know what on the replay
on some of your plays, what you like that kind
of thing. We appreciate it. Sometimes we're trying to trade.
If you know something I don't know, it'll help us out.
So which is why we're here sending it to you,
because it might be something you don't know, so it
helps us all out. We all make more money. I mean,
I love it and make sure to like it and
subscribe and you know, and all that. All that goes.
I'm gonna go back to that Baltimore Cleveland game. I'm
gonna play Baltimore team total over three and a half
at minus one forty. If you don't, if you're not
able to play team totals over, either play Baltimore or
yeah you played Baltimore, and again, I think they got
a really good chance to win this game or play
the total in the game overall over, I think Baltimore
is going to score some runs here. Over three and
a half minus one forty and you had the Angels
team total over three and a half minus one twenty.
Speaker 1: Two correct, So what does that come to. I'm not
I'm not good at calculating parleys, but.
Speaker 2: We'll have to ask. We'll have to ask the chat
because barlay's.
Speaker 1: And well, if I go to a parlay calculator right now,
I'm not going to be able to talk because, as
you know, I don't multitask very well. So if anyone
in the chat can tell us what's a one twenty
two and parlay, we'd appreciate it. So again, on my page,
you can download is it four dollars? Four dollars? Really?
That means plus four hundred? I doubt it's a plus five.
Speaker 2: That can't be it. Yeah, no, even that two thirty.
Speaker 1: So right, I would think it's about two eighty to
thirty two fifty something like that. But anyways, my page
you can download my picture projections, the walks, the hits,
the walk, the strikeouts and all of that. Trigg does
not have a parlay piece bill, so he we're gonna
do a tour again because we won one yesterday without me,
So we're gonna win one without trig Jack, I would
agree with you. It's probably around two fifty. Uh, and
I have a four percent MLB play out. Brian is
going to put something out later more more than likely.
Brian is a little more conservative. I'm putting his plays out.
I'll have a day where I put out like five
or six plays. Brian puts out usually one or two.
Speaker 2: Am I correct, Yeah, some days I'll put out. Well,
the other day when my cable went out or my
internet went out, I only put up one and a
half percents, but they put up four of them because
I couldn't couldn't get the information write up my two
on nine. That's not that sounds what I expected it
to be. Appreciate.
Speaker 1: We got anywhere between two oh nine two twelve, so
we'll call it two ten. Yeah, two ten, it looks like.
So we'll wrap up the shows. One guy's getting two twenty. Wow,
good book. We'll call it two ten though, just for
just for our sake, we'll call it plus ten. And uh,
we're going to wrap up the show there because Brian
needs to do his numbers and I need to go
to sleep. But anyways, we appreciate you guys watching. Sorry,
I missed yesterday and Adam is driving to he's taking
his cousin, I think his nine year old cousin to
a baseball game. I think a nephew, nephew, her niece.
So he's with a child today, so we kept it
clean because we know he's listening to the show. So
no cursing and no no alcohol for the child. So anyways,
we appreciate you guys watching. Do us a huge favor.
It costs you nothing and it takes only fifteen seconds.
Leave a comment on the replay and click the like
on the replay. Show wager talk that you'd like us
and visit our pages because not only can you buy something,
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as well, so you grab those in cash with us
as well. So thank you guys for tuning in. Two
of the best cappers on the planet add Adam or
three of the best cappers on the planet. Tune in
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