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Speaker 1: Okay, we're live. We are minus Adam, but you've got

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me and Brian and I'm awake today. Yesterday I think

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I had some kind of heat stroke or something. I

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just I just had to lay down. I couldn't get

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up out of my bed. So anyways, Brian and Adam

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nailed the parlay while I was gone because I had

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been losing the parlay legs for a couple of days

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in a row. So that's good. And I won my

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five percent play, which was nice. So what's up with you? Brian?

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Speaker 2: By the way, I like your shirt. That's that's a

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nice lucky shirt.

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Speaker 1: Thanks.

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Speaker 2: You buy all your shirts in Japan.

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Speaker 1: I get I get them from I buy them from

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the US on eBay. Usually I get some in Japan.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, we won our parlay yesterday, which was nice,

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and it was done pretty early unfortunately well, and I

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also wont my free play. Unfortunately, my five dollars play

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I lost. Still still can't understand it, but that's thank you.

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Christin and he lection to Sean hess by the way,

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one of our favorite guys. He used to be in

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Las Vegas. He was down in Florida now, but I

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wanted to talk about you know, if anybody's following for

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the first time. Brandon and I are big hard rock,

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heavy metal fans, and yesterday, unfortunately, Ozzie passed away seventeen

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days after his last concert, at seventy six years old.

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It's funny how for years when he was with Black

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Sabbath that people's parents hated him in the whole bit,

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and they thought he was a double worshiper and biting

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the head off of a bat and a dove and

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all that other stuff. He only did those things because

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he thought they were props. He didn't realize the bat

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was real and the thing he did, and he's pretty

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messed up on drugs. What can you say? But ever

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since the Osborne's TV show came on, you've seen that

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he's just a great dad and a really nice person.

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Everybody loves him, and I've heard nothing but good things

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from anybody who has ever met him. I've seen Black

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Sabbath a few times, and I've seen Auzzi a few times,

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always put on a good show. Gonna miss him. I

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haven't felt this way since bon Scott passed away when

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I was probably eighteen or so. Loved bon Scott. It

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really hurt me. It was like a family member. I

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know it's music. We've never met these people, but it's

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a big part of our lives. And just want to

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wish everybody and his family the best and all of

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his fans, and yeah, gonna miss him.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he's such a unique voice. He just belted it out.

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I started getting into Ozzie right around nineteen eighty I

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was nine years old. First album I got by him

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was Blizzard of Oz. What a great album. And got

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to see him in eighty two when I was eleven,

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So yeah, Ozzy. Ozzie was amazing. My second favorite artist

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of all time. So he's one of the few people

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who was probably more successful as a solo than he

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was with a really good band and great Yeah, one

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of the all time greats, and he actually surpassed that solo.

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You know. Morris's another one who kind of surpassed the Smiths,

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but he's not heavy metal, but he surpassed the Smiths

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with his with his solo career. But Ozzy, yeah, man,

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no one else, no one else, things like that. But

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he did a drug or two in his life, so.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, two. He's given us a lot of great stories.

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If you ever read The Dirt by Motley Crue. They

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talk about a few of them. Everybody's got an Aussie story,

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so I'm sure they're gonna be a lot of those

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out on Twitter and everything on YouTube this week. So

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I am looking forward to a lot of the stories. Unfortunately,

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the situation is not what we wanted. But let's get

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to baseball. What do you want to talk about today?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I'm going to just pick a game that

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I think is a really good matchup today. So I

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want to talk Brewers and Mariners, two really good pitchers

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and two teams that are playing really well. So how

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do you see this one shaking out? And then I'll

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give you my thoughts after you.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Before we get going on today's game, I want

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to talk a little bit about yesterday's I had a

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doctor's deployment and I got to meet one of our clients,

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one of our fans, ken over at the Westgate, real

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nice guy from Ohio, and on the way home, I

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heard the Ozzie news, but I also heard the Milwaukee

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coach was on one of the one of the radio shows,

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national radio show for ESPN. They do a really good job.

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I think it's loud outs if I remember correctly, but

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they had the coach of Milwaukee on there and they

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asked him about Miseroski and he said, yeah, he said, unfortunately,

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he's pitched. You know, he's thrown a lot of innings

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so far in the minors, and so far we're trying

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to keep him keeping under control a little bit, and

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he's not going to get the full time as a starter.

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So being sports better, the first thing I look for

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is out for him. And it was fifteen and a half,

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but it was like minus two fifty by that time,

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and I'm sure it was probably a better number before that.

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It was a really good bet even in minus two fifties.

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For those people who don't like to lay big numbers,

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that one was one of them that even though he

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pitched terrific, he didn't give up around. He had had

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a whole lot of strikeouts. They pulled him out when

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he was head through like sixty pitches. So get that

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in mind. Even on I you know, even on the ESPN,

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you get some good information once in a while instead

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of the talking heads about fictitious things going on. So

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that's something to keep in mind if you are in

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the car. You know, I love music, but sometimes you

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get good information on these baseball shows.

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Speaker 1: Yeah went eleven eleven outs, by the way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And it was fifteen and a half. And

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in the announcers talking about it the entire time, he said,

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you don't know how long he's going to go. And

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I thinking that was the easiest bet ever, even at

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two fifty. Okay, today, Priests going against Castillo. Normally I

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like to fade a team who is off of a

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big winning streak, and that would be fade Milwaukee here.

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But that would be the only way I would look.

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How you've got Priester going against Castillo. Castillo is about

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a one twenty eight favorite seven and a half. Quinn

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Priest has been very good for Milwaukee. This is a

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team that's turning into the Pittsburgh's, the Cleveland's being able

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to develop pitching Priests since he's come over here. He's

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eight and two, three point three three ERA, three point

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five three, expected, one point two zero whip, his ground

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ball percents in the ninety six percentile, which is very good.

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Most of his other numbers are mediocre, and he's not

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a guy that is going to blow you away for

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the most part. But expected the RA sixty eighth percentile.

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He's not terrible, excuse me and anything, but he's a

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guy that has outperformed his metrics and in the past,

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and he's got a great future. Unfortunately, Luis Castillo is

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just the opposite three point two to one ERA. That's

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the highlight, that's what you expect from his lifetime ERA

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is three point five to three, but his expected the

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array is over a full run higher four point twenty

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six one point two to one whip. If you've seen

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him pitch this year, he's not the same. Used to

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have a very good four seemer Nowadays, his UH his

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average ax of velocity twenty seventh percentile, barrel rate seventeenth,

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hard hit rate sixteenth, he's first an extension first percentile

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and extension despite being six to two, six to two

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is still pretty tall guy, so a lot of time

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for the opposition to react to his pitches, and he

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doesn't have the same success in his pitches as he's

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had in the past. If you take a look at

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his fastballs at ninety five point two, which is basically

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maybe a half a run better than league average or

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in the past he's had, he's had much better success rates.

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His strikeout to walk rate this year is only thirteen

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point five and league average is just less than sixteen.

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So Castillo's a guy who's been very fortunate with that

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era so far, but a guy we're looking to we're

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looking to fade. That was a hell of a game yesterday,

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by the way, both teams pitching well. One hit the

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home run I was enough to win it for Seattle.

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I think at the current price, we can get Milwaukee

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in the in the one fifteen to twenty range. That

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would be the way I like. I still like the

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way Milwaukee's playing, and I prefer them from the starting

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pitcher standpoint.

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Speaker 1: So when I run my numbers on this, yeah, Milwaukee,

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he seems to have a lot of advantages here. The

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team that I completely threw under the bus and trashed

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about two weeks ago went on a ten game winning streak.

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Speaker 2: After I joged him eleven eleven.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, look, they're hitting better, their bullpens playing better,

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and they're starting pitchers ranked higher. The one thing about this, though,

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is Castillo has some amazing numbers against this team in

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his history. However, like you mentioned, he's not exactly the

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same shutdown guy that he used to be. But in

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seventy three at bats against a one seven eight ERA

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against in a six H nine ops. It's pretty amazing numbers.

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And to be honest, now if I say this, now,

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Milwaukee's gonna go on another ten game winning streak. But honestly,

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I don't think their lineup is as good as they're performing.

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But now watch them go win ten games in a

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row again. But if I were to go anyway, I

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would go Milwaukee, but I'm hesitant because Castillo has such

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good numbers against him. But are we going to get

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twenty twenty Castio or are we going to get twenty

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twenty five Castio? Is the question?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: So guys, I have a four percent play out today

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in MLB, and Brian always does this show and then

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puts his plays out. So when the show's over, do

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us a favor. Go to our pages at wager Talk.

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I've been doing putting out my PDF projections for pictures.

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I didn't do it yesterday because I was laying down

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sweating all night, but uh, they're up today, so go

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grab those. Go see Brian's page two because he will

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have a playout. Do you have any five percent plays

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left for this month? Brian? Mine are all gone.

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Speaker 2: Oh yeah, oh yeah, plenty. I've only had one a

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whole month. I just haven't found places to be able

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to plan. I'd like to get them out.

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Speaker 1: So check Brian's page. Check Brian's page later. He might

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have a five percent.

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Speaker 2: Because I didn't find anything strong enough. Four percents I

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put once in a while on Yeah, I hadn't want yesterday, unfortunately,

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but I did want to point out to Seattle the

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last thirty days, Seattle's WRC plus is won twelve and

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Milwaukee's won away. So both teams hitting pretty well in

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the last month. And yeah, two very good teams. I

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expect both these teams to either be in the playoffs

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or be fighting for the playoffs, and it should be.

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It's been a great series so far. I think we

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get another good game tonight.

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Speaker 1: And Kristin, thank you for remembering that it's evening where

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I'm at. She said, good evening, Tokyo, and good morning Brian.

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So there you go, a very thoughtful person out there.

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So next game, I think I want to take a

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look at is. I'd like to take a look at uh.

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We got a comment here. They want to see talk

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about the royals and the Cubs. We got Ray going

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against Seth Lugo the ex met So Seth Lugo has

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been having a really good season so far and Ray's

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been a little up and down. Obviously Chicago has the

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better lineup, but are they performing currently better? And how

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do you see this one shaking out?

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Speaker 2: Brian, Yeah, I want to get to the weather reports

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a little bit. The rain in Atlanta about forty percent

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during game time. We've got about forty percent in Colorado

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and about forty to fifty percent in Tampa. Tampa gets

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a lot of rain. If you've not been down to

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Florida area, they get a lot of rain, but it's

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in short bursts, so the rain then all of a sudden,

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it's good. It's just the way Florida is, the way

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Bahamas is. Uh. In Chicago tonight, the wind is blowing

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out twelve miles an hour, and that's something you know

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a lot of people want to take a look at

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to see how that goes, because that's a major factor

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when you go into the called the winny city for

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a reason. Seth Lugo two point nine to four era

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expected are a four point seven to one point h

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nine whips, so he's not been nearly as good as

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his numbers suggest. In fact, the only thing he's better

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than on the stackcast page better than average is his

237
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walk great sixty seventh percentile strikeout to walk right is

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fourteen point five less than what the average is. And

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he's got a lot of blue on his on his card.

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So as much as I've liked him because he doesn't

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give up a lot of home runs, he is a

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guy who pitches much better in Kansas City and then

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on the road. Kenisy is a very good pitcher's park

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for the most part, except for this year. Been more

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home runs coming there. But he's a guy that we're

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looking to fade a little bit in this situation, and

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he's going up against Colin Ray, who continues to pitch

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pretty well and never gets much credit. Eight wins already

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the season after twelve last year. He's got a thirty

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four and twenty three career record in seven seasons. That's

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pretty impressive. Is era four point four to four not

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so much so. Teams must be hitting when he pitches

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in his career. While his ere are now was three

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00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:03,240
point eight zero, he's expected aras four point nine to three.

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00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:06,080
So he's been a little bit lucky one point to

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a whip, and he's very good in his walk grade

257
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seventy fifth percentilex sension sixty ninth. Everything else is in

258
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the blue struck out minus walk grade ten point seven.

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00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:21,879
So we've got two guys here that have produced a

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lot better than what they should have, and we've got

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the wind blowing out in Chicago. I guess I had

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twelve miles an hour to the to center and left center,

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that kind of thing. And this game open ten overnight

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ten minus twenty. It's now up to ten and a half,

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00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,399
ten and a half, and it's still a little bit cheaper.

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The side for three area is about one fifty five,

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so got one fifty five ten and a half. I

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prefer the over because there's gonna be a regression coming

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to both these guys. Kansas City is not a very

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00:14:55,399 --> 00:14:58,000
good hitting team, but they've been very hot lately offensively,

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and the Cubs have one of the deepest lineups in

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Major League Baseball, if not the best. I like this

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game to go over. We're not getting the ten, but

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we do get ten and a half. We're paying ten

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00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,559
cents less for it, but that would be the way

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I play this when this is an afternoon game. But

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by the way, first, a lot of afternoon games today

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first game goes about twelve known Eastern. A lot of

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them happened during the day. We've had a lot of

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night games lately, a lot of day games. Today is

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it's getaway day, yeah, and now getaway day for the

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most part, it is usually a day you want to

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play unders on. But I think the way this game

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sets up, I like the over here.

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Speaker 1: I can't argue with that. Yeah, bullpen, Chicago's bullpen or

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Kansas City's bullpen has been pretty trash lately. In their

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lineup is hitting really well right now? What did Pez

288
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have two home runs yesterday or the day before? So, yeah,

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they're smashing it really well right now. And the Cubs

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are not. I have them ranked nineteen out of thirty

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00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:02,720
in current form, but they're obviously a lot more talented

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than that, and they can put up eight runs a game.

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00:16:07,519 --> 00:16:11,320
They if all one through nine were all clicking on

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all cylinders. They are a juggernaut, but not quite hitting

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in current form. So I've got Lugo ranked fourteen out

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00:16:21,679 --> 00:16:23,679
on a curve of thirty, and i got Colin Ray

297
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ranked fifteen on a curve of thirty, so pictures starting pictures,

298
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I got him pretty equal. But the Cub's bullpen playing

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better than Kansas City's. But both of these bullpens are

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ranked under fifteen, so they're both below average as far

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00:16:37,440 --> 00:16:40,879
as the current form is concerned according to my rankings.

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So yeah, I wouldn't argue with an over in this one.

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00:16:45,519 --> 00:16:48,200
I don't see either team with a real huge advantage

304
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on the side. But obviously the Cubs are better. But

305
00:16:52,159 --> 00:16:55,080
according to me, I think Seth Lugo's better than Ray,

306
00:16:55,279 --> 00:16:58,759
So a lot of pushes and pulls there, which means

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I'm not going to play aside, but I wouldn't argue

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with your over. Okay, next game we are going to

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talk about is the one that everyone wants to talk about,

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is Yankees and Blue Jays. Before we get to that,

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I got a four percent play, Brian might have a

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four percent play up later today. Check our pages, guys

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and go to the replay of this show and give

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a comment and a like. It tells Wager Talk that

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00:17:22,240 --> 00:17:26,839
you like our show and we might get promotions. So

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00:17:27,319 --> 00:17:29,920
how do you like the Yankees and Blue Jays shaping

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00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:30,720
up today? Brian?

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Speaker 2: Yankees and blue Jay is Freed going for the Yankees.

319
00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:39,880
He's been pushed back a little bit. He blister, and

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he's had to deal with a blister. And that's the

321
00:17:42,519 --> 00:17:47,039
funny thing about baseball is you get these real tough

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guys playing playing in other sports, and you know, all

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the things are go through hockey players, football players, and

324
00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:55,519
a guy could be on the bench because of a

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blister on his finger if he's a pitcher in Major

326
00:17:57,319 --> 00:18:01,440
League Baseball, it's kind of funny. Or sometimes a broken fingernail.

327
00:18:02,559 --> 00:18:06,599
But he's gone up against Bassett right now. Freed is

328
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about a one thirty five favorite, eight and a half

329
00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:14,359
on the total. Freed on the season, eleven and three.

330
00:18:14,559 --> 00:18:18,200
You know, he's a the last three years he's got

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thirty wins and only fourteen losses, and last year he

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00:18:22,319 --> 00:18:24,759
was eleven and ten, So it tells you how good

333
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he's been in twenty twenty three and twenty twenty five.

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Two point four to three ERA this year one point

335
00:18:29,599 --> 00:18:33,000
oh one whip expected dra full run higher three point

336
00:18:33,079 --> 00:18:35,119
four to three, A lot of red on his stat

337
00:18:35,279 --> 00:18:38,799
cast page eighty nine percent, Tireland walk grate eighty seventh,

338
00:18:38,839 --> 00:18:42,759
exter velocity eighty eighth in ground ball percent, doesn't give

339
00:18:42,839 --> 00:18:44,839
up a lot of home runs, strikeout to walk ratio,

340
00:18:45,079 --> 00:18:49,279
which is key to me, seventeen point six. That's good,

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00:18:49,799 --> 00:18:53,000
it's a very good. We'd like that. Then we take

342
00:18:53,039 --> 00:18:56,839
a look at Chris Bassett. Chris Bassett ten and four

343
00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:01,039
in the season, a third straight year. It's been around

344
00:19:01,039 --> 00:19:03,759
eleven years now, last three years, he's won thirty six

345
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total games. He's a he's a guy that gives you

346
00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:10,119
innings two hundred seventy one and already won thirteen this year,

347
00:19:10,440 --> 00:19:14,279
one point three six, whip three point nine expected dra

348
00:19:14,599 --> 00:19:17,839
right on where his era is on the season. Actually

349
00:19:18,079 --> 00:19:21,640
average ex velocity ninety fourth percentile, he keeps people off

350
00:19:21,680 --> 00:19:25,279
balanced walk grade eighty third, already hit rate eighty seventh.

351
00:19:26,319 --> 00:19:28,680
His walk grade is only five point nine percent and

352
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:32,079
sixteen point three slightly better than league average when it

353
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comes to strike out minus walk rate. Like both these pitchers,

354
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and I think with the current line of where it is,

355
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I think there's slight value on Toronto here to catch

356
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,119
them as how do they as hog ha they been

357
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,240
in the one twenty plus one twenty range. Like them

358
00:19:53,279 --> 00:19:55,920
a little bit here, I would expect this to be

359
00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,160
a lower scoring game. The line tells you that at

360
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eight and a half, considering how powerful these two offenses

361
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,759
can be, and the and the Toronto is right now

362
00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:11,279
slightly in with Toronto, probably won't get involved. Yeah.

363
00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:17,119
Speaker 1: I like Max Freed a lot. Isn't it interesting that

364
00:20:17,279 --> 00:20:19,599
his name is spelled Fried but it's pronounced Freed. I

365
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:23,160
always thought that was interesting, but it actually is spelled Fried,

366
00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:28,079
So anyway, it's Fried Chicken. So looking at his numbers

367
00:20:28,119 --> 00:20:31,039
against the Blue Jays unbelievable. I mean, he's got a

368
00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,400
one to eighty four average against in a four to

369
00:20:33,519 --> 00:20:37,200
sixty five ohps in his career. And Freed is pitching

370
00:20:37,599 --> 00:20:41,119
pretty well this season. He's not walking too many people.

371
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He's not striking out a lot, which is kind of concerning.

372
00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:47,720
I think his last few games he's only had like

373
00:20:47,799 --> 00:20:50,599
three or four strikeouts in his starts. If I'm not mistaken,

374
00:20:51,519 --> 00:20:53,720
not looking at it right now, but I just off

375
00:20:53,759 --> 00:20:56,200
the top of my head, because I do have a

376
00:20:56,319 --> 00:20:59,079
future on him to get a certain amount of strikeouts

377
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:02,079
this season, so I always check. But I've noticed that

378
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,759
they're a little low. But he does have great numbers

379
00:21:04,799 --> 00:21:08,000
against these guys, and Bassett has terrible numbers against the Yankees.

380
00:21:08,039 --> 00:21:10,440
But Bassett's been pitching really well this season. He's got

381
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,000
a three zero four average against and at eight ninety

382
00:21:13,039 --> 00:21:19,359
three ops against in his career, mainly mainly the people

383
00:21:19,519 --> 00:21:22,559
doing the damage against him, Aaron Judges eight five for

384
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,920
eighteen with the home run. Grisham has two home runs

385
00:21:26,920 --> 00:21:30,200
against him. So those two guys watch out for them today.

386
00:21:30,279 --> 00:21:34,200
Perhaps I've got these teams almost even though when you

387
00:21:34,319 --> 00:21:39,039
match them up. Although New York does have a big

388
00:21:39,359 --> 00:21:42,359
starting pitcher advantage, I think Toronto has the bullpen advantage

389
00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:45,559
because the Yankees bullpen has really been underperforming. It was

390
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,920
one of their strengths coming into the season, I thought,

391
00:21:48,519 --> 00:21:50,519
but definitely not one of their strengths right now. I

392
00:21:50,559 --> 00:21:52,960
got them ranked fifteen right on the Mendoza line, where

393
00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:57,440
I have Toronto's ranked two, And they're probably ranked that

394
00:21:57,559 --> 00:21:59,720
high because they're winning so many games and they're using

395
00:21:59,759 --> 00:22:03,519
their good guys instead of thrown in there. They're guys

396
00:22:03,559 --> 00:22:05,920
who don't matter in a losing effort just to get

397
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,680
the game over with. So yeah, winning teams will use

398
00:22:08,759 --> 00:22:12,359
their better guys, right, So naturally their bullpen numbers will

399
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,799
look higher in current form, which is one of the

400
00:22:14,839 --> 00:22:17,759
downfalls of doing it my way, the current form way.

401
00:22:18,559 --> 00:22:21,440
But anyways, I got these teams pretty even. If any

402
00:22:21,599 --> 00:22:23,480
if anything, I would look at an under here. And

403
00:22:23,559 --> 00:22:27,119
I know that sounds crazy because these two teams just

404
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:29,559
whack the crap out of the ball, and this is

405
00:22:29,599 --> 00:22:33,200
a hitter's park, so I know it sounds crazy, But

406
00:22:33,279 --> 00:22:37,720
if anything, I would take an under because I like Freed. Freed,

407
00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,240
we got we got the better pitcher going against the

408
00:22:40,559 --> 00:22:44,039
better performing lineup at the moment, and and the Blue

409
00:22:44,119 --> 00:22:47,240
Jays bullpen is just performing great. So if anything, I'd

410
00:22:47,279 --> 00:22:49,960
look at it under. But I haven't played it as

411
00:22:50,039 --> 00:22:53,640
of yet. Quick though, again, yeah, go for it.

412
00:22:53,759 --> 00:22:57,519
Speaker 2: Question for you. When you look at the w RC

413
00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:01,599
results RC plus results for the thirty days, Toronto was

414
00:23:01,680 --> 00:23:04,920
number two at one nineteen. The New York Yankees are

415
00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:08,440
number three, tied with the Cubs at one sixteen. Uh

416
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:10,559
do you happen to know? And I'm sure you've probably

417
00:23:10,559 --> 00:23:12,200
got a good idea because you make your own numbers.

418
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:16,079
Who leads Major League Baseball now over the last thirty days.

419
00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,319
Speaker 1: In w r C plus w r C plus I

420
00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:23,039
think might be uh, would it be uh?

421
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:24,519
Speaker 2: Uh?

422
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 1: Guerrero?

423
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:26,880
Speaker 2: No, the team.

424
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:28,759
Speaker 1: Oh what team Toronto?

425
00:23:29,839 --> 00:23:32,039
Speaker 2: No, Toronto's Toronto and the Yanks are two and three?

426
00:23:32,680 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 1: Oh? Sorry the lead on? Is it the Brewers?

427
00:23:36,039 --> 00:23:40,160
Speaker 2: Way now? They were like for the Angels. The Angels

428
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,799
there plus one three. It was surprised to be too.

429
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:44,279
Speaker 1: I know that. Uh.

430
00:23:44,519 --> 00:23:46,079
Speaker 2: They've been hitting a lot of rounds.

431
00:23:46,480 --> 00:23:46,599
Speaker 1: Uh.

432
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 2: And they're like an underdog like every day now it

433
00:23:50,039 --> 00:23:52,160
seems to be. So you're getting a really good hitting

434
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:54,759
team in the underdog role. And and if you don't mind,

435
00:23:54,759 --> 00:23:57,160
I kind of like to talk about this game, which, Yeah,

436
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:58,119
let's do it. Let's do it.

437
00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: I was going to do Diego, do San Diego next?

438
00:24:01,079 --> 00:24:03,400
I promise guys, which game is it?

439
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:05,599
Speaker 2: Angels in the Mets?

440
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:08,680
Speaker 1: Angels in the Mets? Yeah, please go for it. Go

441
00:24:08,799 --> 00:24:11,680
for guys, what do our replay? And leave a comment

442
00:24:11,799 --> 00:24:13,079
and leave a like, go for it?

443
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:16,200
Speaker 2: Right, A couple left. He's going today, Bert going for

444
00:24:16,319 --> 00:24:20,359
the Angels, Manea going for the Mets. Mets are a

445
00:24:20,400 --> 00:24:25,559
pretty good sized favorite here about one seventy four maybe

446
00:24:26,519 --> 00:24:31,960
eight and a half on the total. But anytime you

447
00:24:32,039 --> 00:24:35,240
can catch an Angel Towian an angel team like this

448
00:24:35,559 --> 00:24:37,319
in the underdog role. They've been very good at this

449
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:41,559
all steason long. Brock Burke comes in four on one

450
00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:44,799
record three point three eighty RA a spectator RA three

451
00:24:44,839 --> 00:24:48,200
point nine to five, very similar. His whip's a little

452
00:24:48,279 --> 00:24:53,000
high at one point three seven. He's ninety first in

453
00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:58,000
ground ball percent and eighty first extension. The only problem

454
00:24:58,079 --> 00:25:02,240
is this is probably one of the worst home run

455
00:25:02,319 --> 00:25:05,079
ballparks in Major League Baseball. You don't get a lot

456
00:25:05,079 --> 00:25:08,319
of home runs in New York, so the ground ball

457
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:11,599
rate may be wasted. But you've still got a team

458
00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:15,240
in Burke and the Angels that I think have some values.

459
00:25:15,319 --> 00:25:18,480
Chase rates only in the fifteenth percentile hard hit rate

460
00:25:18,559 --> 00:25:20,359
thirty seconds, so he can be hit a little bit.

461
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,720
But this year he's doing pretty well. In His ERA

462
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:26,440
in five seasons is three point nine to three, which

463
00:25:26,559 --> 00:25:30,079
is not bad at all going up against Sean Manaya,

464
00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:34,799
and I like Maneya. He's come in this year. He's

465
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,839
started one game and then he was a piggyback the

466
00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,960
other game two point four to five ERA, two point

467
00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,599
three to zero expected, one point nine whip. He's been

468
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,720
very good, but it is a limited amount of innings.

469
00:25:47,240 --> 00:25:50,759
His extension is in the eighth fourth percentile. Brek out

470
00:25:50,799 --> 00:25:54,119
to walker ratio right now is about the biggest this year.

471
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,519
I ever going to see h forty one point nine

472
00:25:57,559 --> 00:26:02,160
percent strikeout rate, six point five percent walk great thirty

473
00:26:02,240 --> 00:26:05,240
five point four. That's not going to last. And I

474
00:26:05,319 --> 00:26:08,119
think we could start fading Manea a little bit here.

475
00:26:08,759 --> 00:26:12,960
His strikeout rate in his career is twenty two point six.

476
00:26:13,759 --> 00:26:17,279
He's it's almost twenty percent higher this year in his

477
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,880
small sample size of only seven and the third innings.

478
00:26:21,039 --> 00:26:24,200
The metsro team. I like the pitching on this team,

479
00:26:24,279 --> 00:26:27,599
but they still are not hitting like they should be.

480
00:26:28,319 --> 00:26:31,000
And I talked about the Angels being number one at

481
00:26:31,039 --> 00:26:34,160
one twenty two. Let's see what the Mets are New York.

482
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,920
Met's twenty third at ninety three. So you've got basically

483
00:26:38,039 --> 00:26:41,240
twenty nine percent better offense over the last month, and

484
00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:44,200
you're getting a competent pitcher on the mound, and you're

485
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:48,559
getting them in the plus one fifty range. I think

486
00:26:48,599 --> 00:26:49,960
the Angels have some value today.

487
00:26:52,319 --> 00:26:56,079
Speaker 1: Could not agree more. And the Angels are one of

488
00:26:56,160 --> 00:26:59,319
those teams that the books just always slight because they're

489
00:26:59,319 --> 00:27:01,559
a bad team generally. But the Angels are a bad

490
00:27:01,599 --> 00:27:05,359
team because they're pitching and actually they have a kind

491
00:27:05,440 --> 00:27:08,680
of stigma attached to them as for being a bad team,

492
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,559
but that's mostly because Mike Trout's always injured when he's

493
00:27:11,599 --> 00:27:15,440
in that lineup. Man, they're pretty good. And I mean

494
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,960
they got rid of Moniac. You know, he's he's crushing

495
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:23,319
it with Colorado too. I mean, but yeah, this is

496
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,519
a really good lineup. As a matter of fact, my

497
00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:29,880
stats have them ranked number four in MLB in current form,

498
00:27:30,559 --> 00:27:34,920
where I got the Mets ranked twenty three. And if

499
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:38,880
you look at how Maneas performed against these guys, manaya

500
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:44,160
minea banana, tomato. Tomato. Anyways, if you look how he's

501
00:27:44,200 --> 00:27:46,839
performed against these guys, it's not very well. He is

502
00:27:46,880 --> 00:27:48,880
a three to twenty one average against in a nine

503
00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:52,160
eighty six OPS against. I always say the seven fifty

504
00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:55,720
is about my Mendoza line for ops and the guys

505
00:27:55,759 --> 00:27:58,640
who have been doing the damager Mike Trout nine for

506
00:27:58,759 --> 00:28:02,680
twenty one twenty nine average and a fourteen seventy two OPS.

507
00:28:03,319 --> 00:28:07,039
You guys, maybe look for Mike Trout. His hits runs RBIs.

508
00:28:07,039 --> 00:28:08,839
If you can grab a one and a half over

509
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,039
for that, that would definitely be good. But I have

510
00:28:11,119 --> 00:28:12,680
a feeling the books will make that two and a

511
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,400
half for him, so I would lay off that and

512
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:19,039
let's see who else is doing damage against miney that's

513
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:23,880
mostly Mike Trout. Uh So I like the Angels too,

514
00:28:24,039 --> 00:28:28,039
and I think I'm gonna make this my parlay piece.

515
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,680
I'm gonna take the Angels team total over three and

516
00:28:30,720 --> 00:28:33,680
a half for the parlay piece. I think the odds

517
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,319
were minus twenty when I saw it. But do you

518
00:28:37,519 --> 00:28:39,680
do you what do you see it as?

519
00:28:40,000 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 2: I've got three and a half minus anywhere from one

520
00:28:44,279 --> 00:28:45,279
twenty to one twenty five.

521
00:28:46,079 --> 00:28:48,799
Speaker 1: Okay, so I'll say one twenty two then, just to

522
00:28:48,920 --> 00:28:52,160
be fair, and so that'll be my parlay piece. We'll

523
00:28:52,240 --> 00:28:55,359
recap it at the end, guys. So Brian will throw

524
00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,319
his out. He's been winning his parlay pieces. I've been

525
00:28:58,359 --> 00:29:00,839
losing mind. But hopefully today we can.

526
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:01,279
Speaker 2: We can.

527
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: We can win win, which is why I was absent

528
00:29:03,559 --> 00:29:08,640
yesterday and Adam and Brian won. So that was nice.

529
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:12,880
H I say, uh, I say the Brewers suck and

530
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:14,519
they go on a ten game winning streak and then

531
00:29:14,559 --> 00:29:16,200
I leave the show for a day and they hit

532
00:29:16,279 --> 00:29:18,720
the parlay So isn't that how it goes?

533
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:22,200
Speaker 2: If we hit it? Today. Then we then we can

534
00:29:22,279 --> 00:29:26,240
figure out, yeah, what what's going on? We lose today,

535
00:29:26,359 --> 00:29:29,680
then then that's a bad thing. But hopefully then I

536
00:29:29,799 --> 00:29:30,440
know it's not me.

537
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: So we're gonna talk about the Padres and Marlins next

538
00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:40,960
and this game is an enigma. But before that again,

539
00:29:41,079 --> 00:29:43,279
go to our pages at wager Talk, guys, because we're

540
00:29:43,279 --> 00:29:45,319
gonna have plays out. I already have mine and Brian's

541
00:29:45,359 --> 00:29:49,160
gonna have his. Two of the best baseball cappers Adam

542
00:29:49,519 --> 00:29:52,960
include Adam, we are we are the three best baseball

543
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:57,119
cappers on the planet. I'm number one in twenty twenty

544
00:29:57,160 --> 00:30:00,759
five and Brian is wager Talk's number one baseball lifetime.

545
00:30:00,960 --> 00:30:03,920
So you got two guys to two good guys to

546
00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:05,960
roll with here, and we always put free plays up

547
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:08,759
as well. Visit our pages, and now Brian is going

548
00:30:08,839 --> 00:30:13,200
to talk about the Padres and the Marlins cease.

549
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:18,000
Speaker 2: Going for the Padres Alecanteria going for Miami cease is

550
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:20,279
about one fifty favorite right now, gone up a little

551
00:30:20,279 --> 00:30:23,480
bit since the one forty five opener. We're looking at

552
00:30:23,759 --> 00:30:27,920
eight to the under in this game. I don't know

553
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,400
if I mentioned it on this show, but I talked

554
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,799
about second half of the season on something I did

555
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,559
and spoke about Dylan Ceas was a guy who wanted

556
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:41,599
to play. He comes out last time and strikeouts no

557
00:30:41,759 --> 00:30:46,119
walk's great game. He's been terrific over the years. Three

558
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:50,440
point eighty five Evra one point two six whip. He

559
00:30:50,519 --> 00:30:52,599
struck out my Schalk Ray show right now on the

560
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:57,440
season twenty one point six. Last year it was twenty

561
00:30:57,519 --> 00:31:03,000
point nine. He's been assistant the last five or six years.

562
00:31:03,640 --> 00:31:06,279
On what he has done, he's been very good and

563
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:08,599
he had a lot of bad luck earlier. Comes in

564
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,599
with a four point six y four era expected the

565
00:31:11,640 --> 00:31:14,240
era three point four to six, so over a one

566
00:31:14,359 --> 00:31:16,920
run better at one point three all whip. It's always

567
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,279
been a little bit of a concern as he does

568
00:31:19,519 --> 00:31:22,599
walk some batters and if he falls behind and you're

569
00:31:22,599 --> 00:31:24,519
a pretty good hitter, he doesn't want to groove anything

570
00:31:24,599 --> 00:31:26,759
to you, so I'll put you on base. There's been

571
00:31:26,799 --> 00:31:29,920
a few guys that have done this over the years

572
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:33,039
and it works for them, and but that's one something

573
00:31:33,079 --> 00:31:36,480
that he's known for. He's in his seventh season and

574
00:31:36,519 --> 00:31:38,880
he's got a lot of red on his on his

575
00:31:39,039 --> 00:31:42,440
stetcass cards fifth percent ninety four percent strikeout eighty nine,

576
00:31:43,359 --> 00:31:46,920
chase for eight eighty nine, fastball velocity eighty seventh. He

577
00:31:47,119 --> 00:31:51,039
throws six pitches, but really his slider he is at

578
00:31:51,079 --> 00:31:53,880
forty seven percent. His four team is at forty one percent.

579
00:31:54,519 --> 00:31:57,200
His four teams at ninety seven point one percent, which

580
00:31:57,319 --> 00:31:59,759
is over a miles per hour, which is about three

581
00:32:00,319 --> 00:32:02,359
per hour higher than what the normalist. So he can

582
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,640
get away with throwing a lot of fastballs because he's

583
00:32:05,680 --> 00:32:08,880
got a very good fastball. Normally guys who throw a

584
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,039
lot of fastballs I don't like. But if you can

585
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:14,759
hit that range, the Miseri Misraski range that we saw

586
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:17,359
last night, that kind of thing, it definitely works. I

587
00:32:17,599 --> 00:32:20,119
like him, I want to play him. The problem is

588
00:32:20,759 --> 00:32:23,400
the line is a little bit higher than what I

589
00:32:23,480 --> 00:32:28,880
feel comfortable with. Sandya Alcaterra seven point one four ERA,

590
00:32:29,279 --> 00:32:32,319
five point one zero expected. So he's been bad, no

591
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,200
doubt about it. Even with the five point one OHO

592
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,440
expected the era, he has not been good, but he

593
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:40,720
is due to some positive aggression. He's got a one

594
00:32:40,799 --> 00:32:44,640
point four to nine whip and that's really really bad.

595
00:32:44,960 --> 00:32:48,160
His struck out my schalker Raytiow is seven point eight,

596
00:32:48,680 --> 00:32:52,359
which is clearly bad. It's got that great fastball ninety

597
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:55,559
first percentile he throws at twenty three percent, along with

598
00:32:55,599 --> 00:32:58,079
a sinker twenty four percent and a change set twenty one.

599
00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:01,400
So he's got five pitches, which is why you know

600
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:04,319
most guys like him. But he's had trouble this year

601
00:33:04,359 --> 00:33:07,599
coming back from UH from injuries sitting out last season.

602
00:33:07,759 --> 00:33:11,000
Hasn't put it all together. It's amazing that he's been

603
00:33:11,079 --> 00:33:15,039
able to. He's struggled to do this where somebody like

604
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:18,640
the UH the Brewers pitcher has come back and just

605
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:24,039
as he started, he's been great. So it's everybody comes

606
00:33:24,079 --> 00:33:27,200
back from injuries differently, he still has not come back

607
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:32,160
very strongly. I like the Miami team for a value standpoint,

608
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:35,519
but I like Cease. I think he's got a huge

609
00:33:35,559 --> 00:33:39,960
advantage in the starting pitcher situation. Probably a way to

610
00:33:40,039 --> 00:33:43,680
play it in that regard maybe play Miami team total

611
00:33:43,839 --> 00:33:46,960
under for the first half or something. But I want

612
00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:49,240
to get to Cease. But I don't want to lay

613
00:33:49,319 --> 00:33:51,640
the one fifty as a road favorite here because as

614
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,839
we pointed out before, we like this Miami team and

615
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:55,039
they do have some pretty good hitters.

616
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, the way I'm looking at this one I've got

617
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:08,199
the hitting kind of even here, and let's see. Oh sorry,

618
00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,400
I got well, I got the guys backwards. Hang on,

619
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:15,320
we got Ceason al Cantra. Yeah, okay, I'm okay, guys,

620
00:34:15,400 --> 00:34:18,480
I'm multitasking. You guys know I'm not real good at that.

621
00:34:18,679 --> 00:34:21,760
So yeah, I got the hitting pretty even. Miami's hitting

622
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,320
quite well. San Diego obviously more talented, but Miami's kind

623
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:29,000
of on a surge right now. I got both bullpens

624
00:34:29,159 --> 00:34:33,440
pretty even as well. The only real big discrepancy I

625
00:34:33,559 --> 00:34:39,440
see in this game is Cease over al Cantra, but

626
00:34:39,559 --> 00:34:42,320
it's not a big enough difference to make me play

627
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:46,679
the game. But man, san Diego is just a lot

628
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:49,400
more talented. I really want to go with san Diego,

629
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:54,199
but can't because the difference just not big enough for me.

630
00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,519
So I'll probably be laying off of this game. I

631
00:34:57,559 --> 00:34:59,880
think Brian broke it down better than I could even

632
00:35:00,119 --> 00:35:03,559
imagine breaking it down, so I will go to the

633
00:35:03,679 --> 00:35:05,599
next game. By the way, you guys, you can at

634
00:35:05,679 --> 00:35:09,079
my page you can download all of my picture projections

635
00:35:09,119 --> 00:35:14,800
and that includes uh walks, hits, outs, recorded strikeouts, all

636
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:16,639
of that. Now, I'm not gonna say that it's one

637
00:35:16,719 --> 00:35:20,000
hundred percent accurate. But it's the same stats I used

638
00:35:20,039 --> 00:35:23,280
when I was an MLB scout, and they've let me

639
00:35:23,400 --> 00:35:26,119
have four winning years out of the last five years

640
00:35:26,159 --> 00:35:29,679
at wager talk. So I think you know nothing nothing.

641
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:33,719
You can't you can't base your bet on just stats.

642
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:35,639
You have to you have to use an eyeball test

643
00:35:35,719 --> 00:35:38,519
as well. But these will maybe steer you in a way.

644
00:35:38,639 --> 00:35:42,199
If you're thinking about betting something and you know, kind

645
00:35:42,239 --> 00:35:44,400
of hesitating, maybe this will push you over the line

646
00:35:44,440 --> 00:35:48,800
and get you get you a win, hopefully. Let's touch

647
00:35:49,079 --> 00:35:54,440
on uh. Let's touch on the Detroit Tigers game today.

648
00:35:54,599 --> 00:36:00,320
So the Tigers are going against Pittsburgh and uh, I

649
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,559
was very surprised to see mys get get tagged that

650
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:09,760
bad yesterday. I didn't expect that. But today they got

651
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:13,960
Milton going against Falter. And now I don't know anything

652
00:36:14,119 --> 00:36:17,599
about Milton, So maybe you know more about him than

653
00:36:17,880 --> 00:36:19,800
than I do. If you don't know anything about him

654
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:21,280
and you're not gonna cap it, we'll move on to

655
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,280
a different game. But do you do you have thoughts

656
00:36:23,320 --> 00:36:23,800
on this game?

657
00:36:24,320 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 2: Yeah? Great, We've got Melton against Falter. Falter, the lefty

658
00:36:30,039 --> 00:36:33,079
Melton comes in about a one forty five favorite total

659
00:36:33,119 --> 00:36:37,159
of nine to the under twenty. I mentioned that show

660
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:45,639
that I had watched yesterday or listen to it yesterday,

661
00:36:45,800 --> 00:36:47,559
and they have a lot of the coaches on. They

662
00:36:47,599 --> 00:36:51,239
had the Detroit and they asked him, They said, you've

663
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:55,000
got so much depth in starting pitching in Detroit. Why

664
00:36:56,440 --> 00:36:58,280
what can you tell us about Melton? He said, well,

665
00:36:58,320 --> 00:36:59,920
he goes. I like the guy at a spring training

666
00:37:00,519 --> 00:37:03,000
he said, I knew he'd be a guy for our future.

667
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,800
He's twenty four years old, he's already's six foot four

668
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,159
to two hundred and ten pounds. Take a loot is

669
00:37:08,519 --> 00:37:12,159
look at his career in the minors. His career, he's

670
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,800
twelve and twelve, three point sixty three RA one point

671
00:37:14,880 --> 00:37:18,840
two four whip. It's tough to look at that overall

672
00:37:19,119 --> 00:37:22,119
in make a judgment. He was with the both the

673
00:37:22,360 --> 00:37:25,360
Eerie ce Dogs and the Toledo mud Hunts this year.

674
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:29,239
Good Ara both times. Hasn't thrown a lot of innings

675
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:33,320
seventy five innings or so overall, but he does have

676
00:37:33,360 --> 00:37:36,880
a lot of strikeouts. He's a guy that's got one

677
00:37:36,960 --> 00:37:39,199
hundred and one strikeouts so far this year and only

678
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:41,840
seventy five innings, so he's going to come into this

679
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,280
game and the coach they kind of talked about young

680
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:48,840
pitchers coming into meajor of the baseball and the mistake

681
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,800
that they make is they come in here and they've

682
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,280
got a really good fastball. They're a really big strikeout

683
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:58,760
picture like Melton, and the coaches always tell them, you know,

684
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:00,519
you had a lot of success in them minors, but

685
00:38:00,639 --> 00:38:02,960
these guys have been around a long time. They can

686
00:38:03,079 --> 00:38:09,880
hit a fastball. A lot of times. The guy will come,

687
00:38:11,639 --> 00:38:16,280
he'll get so, he says, what happened? He says, I

688
00:38:16,400 --> 00:38:18,400
told you that they could hit your fastball. He goes,

689
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:22,199
I didn't think they could hit my fastball. Yeah, I

690
00:38:22,239 --> 00:38:24,519
got a lot of guys have a lot of arrogance,

691
00:38:25,079 --> 00:38:28,719
of these twenty year old kids. You know, it's it's like, hey,

692
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:31,400
I'm different than that last guy, those last hundred guys

693
00:38:31,440 --> 00:38:32,400
that did this, but.

694
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:35,599
Speaker 1: We all think that in your way. I think sometimes yeah,

695
00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:38,480
but at that level, you have to be like you

696
00:38:38,639 --> 00:38:40,360
have to think like that or you can't get to.

697
00:38:40,440 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 2: That arrogant and that that you're you're not making this

698
00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:48,280
to the pros. You've got to have some exactly something

699
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:52,199
like that. Pushing you. Uh Britty Falter comes at Bailey

700
00:38:52,199 --> 00:38:54,960
fulkerscuse me six or five records four point zero zero,

701
00:38:55,760 --> 00:38:59,079
I'll expect are expected four point five one point two

702
00:38:59,159 --> 00:39:03,679
two whip great extension ninety six percentile. He's six foot four,

703
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:08,360
twenty eight years old here, so his pitches get on

704
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:11,079
you in a hurry. The problem is the other team

705
00:39:11,159 --> 00:39:14,639
has no problem hitting them. Chase rates six percentile, with

706
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:19,119
right six percentile, walk grate fourth percentile, hard hit fifteenth.

707
00:39:19,199 --> 00:39:23,199
He's got five pitches, throws a sports seemer forty six

708
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,639
percent of the time. But it's not dominant. He's only

709
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:29,039
ninety two point one miles an hour. It's it's two

710
00:39:29,079 --> 00:39:32,119
miles an hour worse than your normal major league hit,

711
00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:35,079
major league pitcher, and he throws it fifty percent of

712
00:39:35,159 --> 00:39:38,760
the time. That's what I don't like. Totally. Winning this game, obviously,

713
00:39:38,880 --> 00:39:40,320
is what we're going to take a look at here.

714
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:46,440
Nine to the under twenty. It's an early game. Gives

715
00:39:46,519 --> 00:39:48,440
me reason to take the over here. Let's take a

716
00:39:48,480 --> 00:39:52,119
look at what Detroit and Pittsburgh have done in over

717
00:39:52,199 --> 00:39:56,400
the last month here in WRC plus, Pittsburgh dead last

718
00:39:56,800 --> 00:40:03,000
seventy nine. Detroit's tenth at one five, but Pittsburgh for

719
00:40:03,079 --> 00:40:06,960
some reason, is hitting pretty well lately. I think this

720
00:40:07,079 --> 00:40:09,400
game going over. I think we can get to ten

721
00:40:09,519 --> 00:40:14,239
runs between these two, especially that since de Troyce got

722
00:40:14,280 --> 00:40:17,400
a guy up there who hasn't pitch in the majors before,

723
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,519
he's alrighty and if he followed me in the past,

724
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:23,320
I like to play lefties who are making their major

725
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,440
league debut and playing for a while, because you don't

726
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,920
see as many lefties as you do. Right he's about

727
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:30,880
thirty percent of the time you get a lefty out there,

728
00:40:31,440 --> 00:40:34,360
and so teams don't know as much about him. The

729
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:37,000
coach said, they go and and nowadays they should know

730
00:40:37,159 --> 00:40:39,440
everything about him because you see everything out there and

731
00:40:39,480 --> 00:40:42,360
you've got scouts, but until you actually face these guys,

732
00:40:43,039 --> 00:40:46,559
you don't know what they have. And him stepping up

733
00:40:46,559 --> 00:40:49,559
the class here, even though it's the Pyrus and they're

734
00:40:49,719 --> 00:40:52,760
probably the worst offensive baseball, I think he's going to struggle.

735
00:40:52,880 --> 00:40:56,280
So give me the over. Nine is probably a game

736
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:57,519
I'm going to take a look at here.

737
00:40:59,239 --> 00:41:05,599
Speaker 1: Yeah, going those same sentiments, both of these both of

738
00:41:05,639 --> 00:41:10,199
these bullpens are performing horribly right now, so oh I'm sorry, Wait,

739
00:41:10,360 --> 00:41:14,199
both of these. Yeah, sorry, no, no, no, the bullpens

740
00:41:14,239 --> 00:41:17,719
are performing quite average. But I got Bailey Falter ranked

741
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:19,920
twenty six out of thirty on a curve of thirty.

742
00:41:20,400 --> 00:41:23,840
And if you look at how he's performed against the

743
00:41:24,199 --> 00:41:26,880
Tigers in his career, three forty eight average against in

744
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,719
a twelve forty five ops against. That's twenty three at bats,

745
00:41:30,760 --> 00:41:34,039
which is not a huge sample size, but it's at

746
00:41:34,119 --> 00:41:37,920
least one start and it tells you that in well,

747
00:41:38,199 --> 00:41:41,039
it's it's almost two starts, so it tells you that

748
00:41:41,079 --> 00:41:45,000
they've smacked him around pretty good. I would think about

749
00:41:45,039 --> 00:41:48,000
the Detroit team total, but it's along the same sentiments

750
00:41:48,119 --> 00:41:53,440
as Brian's game over. Detroit's team total over also would

751
00:41:53,440 --> 00:41:55,440
be a good play I think here, even if it's

752
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:58,519
four and a half. Detroit bats are a little cold

753
00:41:58,599 --> 00:42:04,199
right now, but Pittsburgh's are cold as well. But nothing

754
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,719
like a little Bailey Falter to wake up your bats

755
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:13,679
that certainly. Yeah, it's like a it's like a it's

756
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,239
like the joker said in Batman, this town needs an enema. Well,

757
00:42:17,400 --> 00:42:20,840
Bailey Falter will be the the Detroit bats enemas. I think,

758
00:42:21,199 --> 00:42:25,880
so maybe the Detroit total over in that game would

759
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:27,000
be a decent play.

760
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:27,760
Speaker 2: I think.

761
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:31,960
Speaker 1: Next, I would like to talk about Bryan's favorite team.

762
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:40,079
Uh and uh the Cleveland soon to be Indians currently

763
00:42:40,159 --> 00:42:47,840
Guardians team. And uh so when when when you do Cleveland?

764
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,960
When you cap Cleveland games are do you completely throw

765
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:53,559
away your fandom or are you just hoping they won?

766
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:57,079
Speaker 2: Yeah? When it comes to my money, I have no fantom.

767
00:42:57,159 --> 00:42:59,079
Usually I go against my teams more often than I

768
00:42:59,159 --> 00:43:02,880
go on them, all right, But yeah.

769
00:43:02,960 --> 00:43:05,519
Speaker 1: Since a Guardians fan, that's been easy to go against

770
00:43:05,599 --> 00:43:06,000
him lately.

771
00:43:06,519 --> 00:43:08,440
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not a Guardians fan. I'm an Indians fan.

772
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:10,639
I don't mention Guardians once I have to. I used

773
00:43:10,639 --> 00:43:17,599
to call him the cage you got. Definitely Eppelin going

774
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:22,079
for Baltimore coming back from injury to Coney for Cleveland

775
00:43:22,880 --> 00:43:24,840
to Coney is about a one twenty five favorite eight

776
00:43:24,880 --> 00:43:32,079
and a half. Here I talked about last yesterday, I

777
00:43:32,159 --> 00:43:36,559
talked about how bad that Baltimore defense was Loreano. It's

778
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:39,960
it's funny because Loreano has hit three home runs I think,

779
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:42,880
in the last two games, and he probably should have

780
00:43:43,199 --> 00:43:47,079
like four errors. Anything he does offensively he gives back defensively,

781
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:50,719
and it's it's been funny. I feel terrible for the

782
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:54,400
guy because obviously he may get traded. He wants to

783
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:55,960
show what he can do, and he's having a hell

784
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,760
of an offensive season. But defensively, oh my god, he's

785
00:43:58,760 --> 00:44:03,599
been athetic, but definitely comes in five point nine five

786
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:07,679
era expected ERA four point two six. So he's pitching

787
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:11,280
a lot better than he is what he's shown his career.

788
00:44:11,440 --> 00:44:14,559
I RA is four point two seven, but last few

789
00:44:14,639 --> 00:44:17,599
years twenty three and twenty four he was in mid threes,

790
00:44:17,840 --> 00:44:20,400
So I like this guy. He's not going to blow

791
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,960
you away with his strikeouts or anything. In fact, his

792
00:44:24,960 --> 00:44:26,920
strike out rate is only fifteen point six, but he

793
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,280
only walks four point one, and that's the big deal.

794
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:33,639
Here here's his walk percentages the last five years four

795
00:44:33,679 --> 00:44:37,119
point one, three point five, three point four, four point eight,

796
00:44:37,199 --> 00:44:40,920
three point five. When you don't put people on base,

797
00:44:41,679 --> 00:44:45,719
you can have a really nice career. Even though you're

798
00:44:46,679 --> 00:44:49,519
forcing fastball, you only throw a thirteen percent of the time,

799
00:44:49,519 --> 00:44:53,199
because it's ninety one point nine percent. I like him.

800
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,320
He's having a bad year, but now that he's back

801
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,400
from injury, I expect him to really improve. Here ninety

802
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:02,199
seventh percentile in in walks by the way, seventy fifth

803
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,960
percent town chase rate. He's not a lot a lot

804
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:07,440
of people want to bet on him. And I've talked

805
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:09,440
about this in the past when guys are not mixed,

806
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:13,119
strikeout guys because it makes a lot of sense, because

807
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:17,400
more get play, more balls in play may give you

808
00:45:17,480 --> 00:45:19,559
a chance to give up more hits. And especially the

809
00:45:19,599 --> 00:45:22,239
way this Baltimore defense has been this week. You know,

810
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,639
I don't get a chance to watch every Baltimore's game,

811
00:45:24,679 --> 00:45:28,400
but this week they've looked really bad. But I like

812
00:45:28,519 --> 00:45:30,119
Ethlyn and I think he's going to have a little

813
00:45:30,119 --> 00:45:33,960
bit of success here. CHACONI three point eight four a

814
00:45:34,079 --> 00:45:36,400
ar A four point seven to one expected, so he's

815
00:45:36,480 --> 00:45:39,800
been a little bit lucky. A one point twenty three

816
00:45:39,880 --> 00:45:43,440
whip walk rate is good. It's the only red thing

817
00:45:43,559 --> 00:45:48,039
on his card. Seventy three percent walk rate, seventy three

818
00:45:48,079 --> 00:45:53,039
percent walk percentile, shrekout minds, walk y show fifteen point one,

819
00:45:53,199 --> 00:45:56,880
not the greatest one, less than normal. But he his

820
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:02,280
average euxivelocity, fifth percentile chase rates, barrel rights sixth, hard

821
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:06,559
hit nine. After all of that, I want to either

822
00:46:06,800 --> 00:46:12,599
play on Baltimore or I want to play Baltimore team

823
00:46:12,679 --> 00:46:17,360
total over or I want to play Cleveland team total under.

824
00:46:18,719 --> 00:46:21,199
I may be using one of these as my parlay.

825
00:46:21,360 --> 00:46:23,559
I'll wait on that, but there's different ways to play

826
00:46:23,639 --> 00:46:27,719
this game. But I like the Baltimore Orioles to finally

827
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:29,920
salvation one of these games in the series.

828
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:36,760
Speaker 1: So yeah, unfortunately, I'm gonna have to disagree with you

829
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,880
on this one. I'm not a big fan of e Flyn,

830
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:43,400
and actually I've never been a fan of Taconi either.

831
00:46:43,599 --> 00:46:48,360
I mean, I'm from Arizona. I wouldn't say I'm a

832
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:52,639
Diamondbacks fan, but I watched most of their games, and

833
00:46:52,960 --> 00:46:56,039
when he was with Diamondbacks, I couldn't stand him, and

834
00:46:56,280 --> 00:47:00,440
now I don't like him either. But the Orioles they're

835
00:47:00,559 --> 00:47:03,599
hitting and their bullpen are both ranked really really low,

836
00:47:03,840 --> 00:47:08,679
like really low, and Cleveland's are ranked quite high. I've

837
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:11,519
got Cleveland's lineup rank seven right now, and then I

838
00:47:11,599 --> 00:47:14,679
got their bullpen rank eight. I do have Tony rank

839
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:18,840
twenty out on a curve of thirty, so that is

840
00:47:18,880 --> 00:47:22,400
a little bit of a concern. Might be looking at

841
00:47:22,440 --> 00:47:25,360
it over here, but I don't know if Baltimore can score.

842
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:28,199
Speaker 2: I don't know.

843
00:47:29,679 --> 00:47:32,840
Speaker 1: I would have to lean Cleveland, but it's hard to

844
00:47:32,880 --> 00:47:36,960
think that they're going to sweep this team. So yeah,

845
00:47:37,039 --> 00:47:40,400
I probably won't play it. But man, all my signs

846
00:47:40,440 --> 00:47:44,480
point towards Cleveland for some odd reason, even though I

847
00:47:44,559 --> 00:47:49,480
really haven't liked them for a while. So I probably

848
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:51,760
won't play that game. By the way, Brian, just for

849
00:47:52,800 --> 00:47:55,800
education for the people who might be watching the show

850
00:47:55,840 --> 00:47:59,280
for the first time, when you say ninetieth percentile and

851
00:48:00,199 --> 00:48:02,599
fiftieth percentile which is good, which is bad?

852
00:48:03,079 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, the higher percent well, it depends on what category

853
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:09,239
is in the higher percentile. If you're a pitcher or

854
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:13,440
you want you want to have, obviously you're the higher

855
00:48:13,519 --> 00:48:18,159
the better the things that are. It's red and blue.

856
00:48:18,159 --> 00:48:21,360
If you go to MLB dot com and you you

857
00:48:21,519 --> 00:48:25,199
go to the Baseball Savant page, it'll show you everybody's

858
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:27,400
breakdowns got hitters as well as pictures. If we had

859
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:29,079
like a three hour show every day, I could get

860
00:48:29,159 --> 00:48:31,519
into the pit the hitters a lot more than what

861
00:48:31,639 --> 00:48:35,599
we do here. But for example, Chaconi's seventy third percentile

862
00:48:35,639 --> 00:48:38,320
on walk great. Anything about fifty means you're better than

863
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:41,559
the league average. Anything worse than fifty means you're worse.

864
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:44,599
So if I say he's in the fifth percentile of

865
00:48:44,679 --> 00:48:49,199
average Exavlosi, that means ninety five percent of baseball pitchers

866
00:48:49,239 --> 00:48:52,480
are better than he is in that regard. So that's

867
00:48:52,559 --> 00:48:55,039
the way to be able to read that. And I

868
00:48:55,119 --> 00:48:59,719
do want to point out yesterday's game because Cleveland has

869
00:49:00,679 --> 00:49:06,119
been winning in the series, you haven't seen a lot

870
00:49:06,199 --> 00:49:11,320
of the Orioles better bullpen guys yesterday. Class A got

871
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:14,039
to say we only pitched only through the thirteen pitches,

872
00:49:14,320 --> 00:49:16,960
hadn't pitched the previous three. He'll be there tonight. Me

873
00:49:17,119 --> 00:49:19,719
Gaddis will be there. But Kate Smith threw thirty one

874
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:24,000
pitches yesterday and Eric Stebrowski, a good young lefty the

875
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,280
tribe i'll call him, is brought up the last couple

876
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:31,800
of years. He threw twenty three pitches. So neither one

877
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:36,000
of them will probably pitch today. But the key Baltimore

878
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:39,559
bullpen guys should be able to pitch because they haven't

879
00:49:39,599 --> 00:49:42,239
been winning and so they should be a little bit fresher.

880
00:49:44,199 --> 00:49:47,760
Speaker 1: Sounds good again. I'm going to promo the heck out

881
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:49,599
of it because we've got lots of time and Adam's

882
00:49:49,599 --> 00:49:53,719
not here, So you me and Adam are probably the

883
00:49:53,840 --> 00:49:56,039
only three guys on the planet that could just sit

884
00:49:56,119 --> 00:50:00,039
here and talk for about baseball for three hours, but

885
00:50:01,119 --> 00:50:04,159
are not our fans. Our chat seems to enjoy the

886
00:50:04,239 --> 00:50:06,199
baseball just like us, And this is the audience that

887
00:50:06,320 --> 00:50:08,559
we wanted, is people who like to deep dig into

888
00:50:08,599 --> 00:50:12,000
it and geek out on baseball. So we appreciate you guys.

889
00:50:12,760 --> 00:50:17,079
And Kristen, thank you your sweetheart sending memberships and money

890
00:50:17,159 --> 00:50:20,360
and all that for another guy's birthday. I appreciate that.

891
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,960
So we're going to talk about the Astros and Diamondbacks here.

892
00:50:25,280 --> 00:50:29,960
Two Well, one team that's always good. The Diamondbacks started

893
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:34,239
the season really, really good, and they've tailed off. Some

894
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:36,119
people were talking in the first two weeks of the

895
00:50:36,159 --> 00:50:38,440
season that the Diamondbacks might win that division. Now they

896
00:50:38,480 --> 00:50:42,800
have a losing record, so yeah, well, how do you

897
00:50:42,840 --> 00:50:45,400
see this one shaking out? I mean, one team is

898
00:50:46,039 --> 00:50:50,320
perennially playoff bound and the other went to the World

899
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:52,599
Series a couple of years ago and has plummeted a

900
00:50:52,679 --> 00:50:53,519
little bit since then.

901
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,599
Speaker 2: Well, the Diamondbacks are two games under five hundred, but

902
00:50:57,800 --> 00:51:04,800
they're plus fifteen ian scoring differential, so that's something you

903
00:51:04,880 --> 00:51:07,280
have to keep in mind, Cleveland is playing five hundred

904
00:51:07,360 --> 00:51:11,079
ball and they're minus thirty five, so two things. There

905
00:51:11,199 --> 00:51:13,199
are two things too, and many things that you need

906
00:51:13,280 --> 00:51:16,079
to look at when you are breaking down these teams are.

907
00:51:16,119 --> 00:51:19,559
But Arizona is playing better as of late. I still

908
00:51:19,639 --> 00:51:22,199
think they need to pick up at least one starting pitcher,

909
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:24,639
but we'll see at the trade deadline what they do,

910
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:28,079
being as you mentioned, like fourth place in that division.

911
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:33,239
Brandon Fought is the pitcher for Arizona. He started off

912
00:51:33,280 --> 00:51:36,119
the second half and he came out on the pitch

913
00:51:36,280 --> 00:51:40,559
very well. Walter left he going for Houston. Current line,

914
00:51:40,599 --> 00:51:44,400
Arizona is about a one twenty favorite one twenty two total,

915
00:51:44,519 --> 00:51:51,239
eight and a half to the under. Brandon Walter has

916
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:53,960
been a guy that we have loved because he doesn't

917
00:51:54,000 --> 00:51:59,079
want anybody. But yet he's one in three on the season.

918
00:51:59,239 --> 00:52:02,000
Even with the three point sixty six ERA zero point

919
00:52:02,079 --> 00:52:04,920
nine to six whip SPEC to DRA two point ninety five,

920
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:07,360
they haven't hit for him. He's got a lot of

921
00:52:07,400 --> 00:52:11,000
red on the sackcast page, which means good things walk

922
00:52:11,039 --> 00:52:13,960
great one hundred percentile. He only walked one point six

923
00:52:14,440 --> 00:52:19,000
batters per one hundred, so he's his walk percentage one

924
00:52:19,039 --> 00:52:21,880
point six percent, strike up percent twenty five point three.

925
00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:25,840
Heis him a twenty three point seven strike up minus

926
00:52:25,880 --> 00:52:29,800
walk ray show excellent. His fastball velocity is only a

927
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:32,599
thirteenth percent, so that's what he's bad at. Eighty seven

928
00:52:32,679 --> 00:52:36,400
percent of major league pitchers are better at throwing a fastball.

929
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:41,039
Where he's getting basketball fastball velocity that he is he

930
00:52:41,159 --> 00:52:43,119
throws he throws at ninety one point nine just like

931
00:52:43,199 --> 00:52:46,000
the other gentleman spoke about a few minutes ago. He

932
00:52:46,119 --> 00:52:48,039
only throws at nineteen percent of the time, which is good.

933
00:52:48,199 --> 00:52:51,159
He's got five pitches. He throws double digits. That's what

934
00:52:51,320 --> 00:52:53,800
I like, and that's one of the reasons why I've

935
00:52:53,800 --> 00:52:55,719
been back in him. He's one of those lefties that

936
00:52:56,039 --> 00:52:59,199
nobody knew about. Came out of the bullpen in a

937
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:03,440
twenty twenty, played nine games twenty three innings pitched, comes

938
00:53:03,519 --> 00:53:05,440
back this year as a starter, and he's had a

939
00:53:05,480 --> 00:53:11,119
lot of success in that regard for himself. Unfortunately, as

940
00:53:11,159 --> 00:53:14,280
I mentioned, he's won in three in those games, so

941
00:53:14,400 --> 00:53:20,000
the Astros haven't taken advantage of it. He's opposing Brandon Fott,

942
00:53:20,119 --> 00:53:23,480
a guy who's really been really up and down this year.

943
00:53:23,519 --> 00:53:25,320
And if you take out his stat let's take a

944
00:53:25,360 --> 00:53:28,039
look at the stack that's page you see why ninety

945
00:53:28,079 --> 00:53:31,119
thirty percent tile on walk grate only walks five per game,

946
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:33,679
only strikes out in nineteen point seven though, so he

947
00:53:33,719 --> 00:53:36,880
comes in a fourteen point seven chase rights sixty seventh

948
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:40,199
percentile extension sixty six. He six foot four, gets the

949
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,000
ball on the ball on you in a hurry. Unfortunately.

950
00:53:43,880 --> 00:53:50,519
Expected batting average second percentile, first percentile expected batting average

951
00:53:50,599 --> 00:53:55,159
second percentile, ERA second percentile average eggs of Vlassi, third

952
00:53:55,199 --> 00:53:58,280
barrel rate, fourth hard hit rate. When he gets hit,

953
00:53:58,400 --> 00:54:01,519
he gets hit damn hard. And that's been the problem

954
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:06,079
with his four point eight two e er. He's very

955
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:10,199
up and down. If you play Fantasy baseball, or if

956
00:54:10,199 --> 00:54:13,039
you're a fan of Arizona, you know, one minute this

957
00:54:13,119 --> 00:54:15,519
guy could look great. The next minute you wonder why

958
00:54:15,559 --> 00:54:18,920
he's still in the rotation. That is always my concern

959
00:54:19,000 --> 00:54:21,760
with these guys. You'd like to be in more of

960
00:54:21,800 --> 00:54:24,039
a situation when you're putting your money up there, you

961
00:54:24,239 --> 00:54:26,199
know what you can bet on and what you're sure of,

962
00:54:26,840 --> 00:54:29,360
at least as sure as you can be. That's the

963
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,920
problem with him is you never know what you're going

964
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:37,480
to get, As Forrest Gump would say, So, I am

965
00:54:37,559 --> 00:54:40,880
going to pass on this game, and I like Walter,

966
00:54:41,679 --> 00:54:44,079
but the team doesn't just for some reason hasn't been

967
00:54:44,079 --> 00:54:48,440
scoring for him, So prefer the dog. But Arizona's batch

968
00:54:48,519 --> 00:54:49,119
are pretty hot.

969
00:54:49,079 --> 00:54:52,079
Speaker 1: Right now, I'm going to pass on this game too.

970
00:54:52,159 --> 00:54:54,480
And before you guys complain, why do you talk about

971
00:54:54,559 --> 00:54:57,760
games that you're passing on instead of giving us free plays. Look,

972
00:54:58,000 --> 00:55:00,719
we would not be experts if we had a bet

973
00:55:00,840 --> 00:55:04,199
on every single game, but we want to give you information.

974
00:55:04,320 --> 00:55:06,360
The purpose of the show is to give you information

975
00:55:06,519 --> 00:55:09,800
from professional kapper's minds so you can make good decisions

976
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,559
as well, not just buy our plays, but also make

977
00:55:12,599 --> 00:55:17,360
your own decisions. So Brian just talked and gave a

978
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:21,280
lot of good information without giving without saying he's going

979
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,079
to play the game, and I'm about to do the

980
00:55:23,119 --> 00:55:25,840
same as well. So hopefully you guys can use this

981
00:55:25,960 --> 00:55:30,760
information and make bets as well. Because we don't always

982
00:55:30,800 --> 00:55:33,920
have an we don't always have a strong enough opinion

983
00:55:34,000 --> 00:55:37,440
to bet on a play. So here's my opinion on this.

984
00:55:37,599 --> 00:55:43,000
Brendan Fott is just he's so erratic. I mean, you

985
00:55:43,079 --> 00:55:45,880
look at his stats. He's just up and down all

986
00:55:45,960 --> 00:55:48,239
over the place. I have him ranked twenty one out

987
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:50,519
of thirty pictures, which is almost towards the bottom on

988
00:55:50,599 --> 00:55:56,480
a curve of thirty. But he's got seriously elite control.

989
00:55:56,920 --> 00:55:59,840
He doesn't walk people, and he strikes people out. I mean,

990
00:56:00,840 --> 00:56:05,119
usually a pitcher with who strike who walks only nineteen

991
00:56:05,199 --> 00:56:08,000
percent of the guys he strikes out, Usually that pitcher

992
00:56:08,079 --> 00:56:10,679
is gonna have really good numbers and really good expected numbers.

993
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:14,039
And the problem with pot is his expected numbers are

994
00:56:14,119 --> 00:56:17,480
through the roof. I mean, he's he's actually getting lucky

995
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,400
and he doesn't even have good that good of numbers,

996
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:23,079
and he's getting lucky on top of that, but he's

997
00:56:23,119 --> 00:56:25,960
not walking anyone. So what does it mean. It means

998
00:56:26,559 --> 00:56:31,119
when when people hit the balls he pitches, they're they're

999
00:56:31,320 --> 00:56:35,039
crushing those balls. So, like Brian said, he could come

1000
00:56:35,079 --> 00:56:38,239
out and look like Nolan Ryan in one game, and

1001
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:41,639
then he can come out, you know, and look like

1002
00:56:42,039 --> 00:56:45,920
the big Sexy on his next one. Right, so you

1003
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:49,719
know you know who the big sexy is, right? What

1004
00:56:49,920 --> 00:56:52,480
was his name? The Mets pitcher who came out and

1005
00:56:52,639 --> 00:56:55,519
hit a home run that one time totally overweight guy.

1006
00:56:55,599 --> 00:56:56,199
Speaker 2: What was his name?

1007
00:56:56,280 --> 00:56:59,760
Speaker 1: Oh, you know what I'm talking about. They called him

1008
00:56:59,760 --> 00:57:04,719
the Big Sexy But anyways, I forgot his name. Yeah,

1009
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:06,280
someone will put it in the chat.

1010
00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:09,760
Speaker 2: Probably one of my favorite players at the time.

1011
00:57:09,800 --> 00:57:17,239
Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, yeah, Bartolo Cologne. Thank you, Christin Wow Kristen

1012
00:57:17,400 --> 00:57:20,480
Fast on the response there. Not only is she giving

1013
00:57:20,559 --> 00:57:24,039
us memberships and money, she's answering our quiz question. Thank you, Ethan,

1014
00:57:24,119 --> 00:57:27,360
you got it too. Walks over for five. I don't know, man,

1015
00:57:27,519 --> 00:57:30,480
you should check his walks ratio. It's pretty low. I

1016
00:57:30,519 --> 00:57:32,760
don't know if I would do that, but I do

1017
00:57:33,159 --> 00:57:36,079
think he's He's a very inconsistent picture and I don't

1018
00:57:36,199 --> 00:57:39,079
like to battle him. And Brandon Walter actually has a

1019
00:57:39,239 --> 00:57:43,960
better walk ratio. So neither one of these pictures. Neither

1020
00:57:44,039 --> 00:57:46,960
one of these pictures walk people, and they have decent

1021
00:57:47,039 --> 00:57:51,199
strikeout walks to strikeout ratios. Both lineups are hitting really well,

1022
00:57:52,119 --> 00:57:55,039
and both bullpens are rather mediocre. So if anything, I

1023
00:57:55,079 --> 00:57:59,119
would go over on this one, but I am not

1024
00:57:59,679 --> 00:58:02,599
going to play it. So we got two minutes left.

1025
00:58:02,719 --> 00:58:04,239
So do you have a parlay piece?

1026
00:58:04,719 --> 00:58:07,239
Speaker 2: I do have my parlay piece, and yay, let's talk

1027
00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:07,599
about that.

1028
00:58:07,760 --> 00:58:09,039
Speaker 1: Is it a game we've covered already?

1029
00:58:09,360 --> 00:58:11,199
Speaker 2: Is the game we've covered? So I'll be brief, but

1030
00:58:11,760 --> 00:58:13,840
I do want to point out yesterday I'd asked everybody,

1031
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:18,840
we both asked everybody to get into the get in

1032
00:58:18,920 --> 00:58:21,760
there and tell us, you know what on the replay

1033
00:58:22,000 --> 00:58:23,800
on some of your plays, what you like that kind

1034
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:26,880
of thing. We appreciate it. Sometimes we're trying to trade.

1035
00:58:27,000 --> 00:58:30,400
If you know something I don't know, it'll help us out.

1036
00:58:30,559 --> 00:58:33,280
So which is why we're here sending it to you,

1037
00:58:33,360 --> 00:58:35,559
because it might be something you don't know, so it

1038
00:58:35,639 --> 00:58:37,400
helps us all out. We all make more money. I mean,

1039
00:58:38,039 --> 00:58:39,800
I love it and make sure to like it and

1040
00:58:39,880 --> 00:58:42,719
subscribe and you know, and all that. All that goes.

1041
00:58:44,280 --> 00:58:46,599
I'm gonna go back to that Baltimore Cleveland game. I'm

1042
00:58:46,639 --> 00:58:49,360
gonna play Baltimore team total over three and a half

1043
00:58:49,440 --> 00:58:52,840
at minus one forty. If you don't, if you're not

1044
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:58,639
able to play team totals over, either play Baltimore or

1045
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:00,960
yeah you played Baltimore, and again, I think they got

1046
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:03,719
a really good chance to win this game or play

1047
00:59:03,800 --> 00:59:07,719
the total in the game overall over, I think Baltimore

1048
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:10,280
is going to score some runs here. Over three and

1049
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:13,119
a half minus one forty and you had the Angels

1050
00:59:13,199 --> 00:59:15,599
team total over three and a half minus one twenty.

1051
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:19,039
Speaker 1: Two correct, So what does that come to. I'm not

1052
00:59:19,679 --> 00:59:23,079
I'm not good at calculating parleys, but.

1053
00:59:23,800 --> 00:59:26,239
Speaker 2: We'll have to ask. We'll have to ask the chat

1054
00:59:26,679 --> 00:59:28,480
because barlay's.

1055
00:59:28,079 --> 00:59:35,559
Speaker 1: And well, if I go to a parlay calculator right now,

1056
00:59:35,639 --> 00:59:37,599
I'm not going to be able to talk because, as

1057
00:59:37,639 --> 00:59:39,880
you know, I don't multitask very well. So if anyone

1058
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:41,760
in the chat can tell us what's a one twenty

1059
00:59:41,840 --> 00:59:48,639
two and parlay, we'd appreciate it. So again, on my page,

1060
00:59:49,360 --> 00:59:53,519
you can download is it four dollars? Four dollars? Really?

1061
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:56,840
That means plus four hundred? I doubt it's a plus five.

1062
00:59:57,360 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 2: That can't be it. Yeah, no, even that two thirty.

1063
01:00:00,679 --> 01:00:03,119
Speaker 1: So right, I would think it's about two eighty to

1064
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:06,800
thirty two fifty something like that. But anyways, my page

1065
01:00:06,840 --> 01:00:09,639
you can download my picture projections, the walks, the hits,

1066
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:13,559
the walk, the strikeouts and all of that. Trigg does

1067
01:00:13,599 --> 01:00:17,840
not have a parlay piece bill, so he we're gonna

1068
01:00:17,840 --> 01:00:20,400
do a tour again because we won one yesterday without me,

1069
01:00:20,559 --> 01:00:23,800
So we're gonna win one without trig Jack, I would

1070
01:00:23,840 --> 01:00:27,719
agree with you. It's probably around two fifty. Uh, and

1071
01:00:28,360 --> 01:00:31,360
I have a four percent MLB play out. Brian is

1072
01:00:31,440 --> 01:00:34,320
going to put something out later more more than likely.

1073
01:00:34,599 --> 01:00:37,239
Brian is a little more conservative. I'm putting his plays out.

1074
01:00:37,320 --> 01:00:39,119
I'll have a day where I put out like five

1075
01:00:39,199 --> 01:00:42,960
or six plays. Brian puts out usually one or two.

1076
01:00:44,280 --> 01:00:48,119
Speaker 2: Am I correct, Yeah, some days I'll put out. Well,

1077
01:00:48,159 --> 01:00:50,159
the other day when my cable went out or my

1078
01:00:50,440 --> 01:00:52,760
internet went out, I only put up one and a

1079
01:00:52,800 --> 01:00:55,840
half percents, but they put up four of them because

1080
01:00:55,880 --> 01:00:59,119
I couldn't couldn't get the information write up my two

1081
01:00:59,199 --> 01:01:01,519
on nine. That's not that sounds what I expected it

1082
01:01:01,639 --> 01:01:03,000
to be. Appreciate.

1083
01:01:03,039 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 1: We got anywhere between two oh nine two twelve, so

1084
01:01:05,400 --> 01:01:09,639
we'll call it two ten. Yeah, two ten, it looks like.

1085
01:01:10,599 --> 01:01:14,280
So we'll wrap up the shows. One guy's getting two twenty. Wow,

1086
01:01:15,719 --> 01:01:18,000
good book. We'll call it two ten though, just for

1087
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:22,400
just for our sake, we'll call it plus ten. And uh,

1088
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:25,480
we're going to wrap up the show there because Brian

1089
01:01:25,559 --> 01:01:27,320
needs to do his numbers and I need to go

1090
01:01:27,400 --> 01:01:31,119
to sleep. But anyways, we appreciate you guys watching. Sorry,

1091
01:01:31,159 --> 01:01:35,079
I missed yesterday and Adam is driving to he's taking

1092
01:01:35,199 --> 01:01:37,079
his cousin, I think his nine year old cousin to

1093
01:01:37,119 --> 01:01:40,400
a baseball game. I think a nephew, nephew, her niece.

1094
01:01:40,800 --> 01:01:43,360
So he's with a child today, so we kept it

1095
01:01:43,440 --> 01:01:45,280
clean because we know he's listening to the show. So

1096
01:01:45,440 --> 01:01:50,079
no cursing and no no alcohol for the child. So anyways,

1097
01:01:50,199 --> 01:01:52,320
we appreciate you guys watching. Do us a huge favor.

1098
01:01:52,440 --> 01:01:54,920
It costs you nothing and it takes only fifteen seconds.

1099
01:01:55,440 --> 01:01:57,920
Leave a comment on the replay and click the like

1100
01:01:58,000 --> 01:02:00,199
on the replay. Show wager talk that you'd like us

1101
01:02:01,079 --> 01:02:04,840
and visit our pages because not only can you buy something,

1102
01:02:04,960 --> 01:02:07,960
but Brian and I constantly are putting up free plays

1103
01:02:07,960 --> 01:02:10,000
as well, so you grab those in cash with us

1104
01:02:10,039 --> 01:02:14,079
as well. So thank you guys for tuning in. Two

1105
01:02:14,159 --> 01:02:16,679
of the best cappers on the planet add Adam or

1106
01:02:16,719 --> 01:02:19,159
three of the best cappers on the planet. Tune in

1107
01:02:19,239 --> 01:02:22,239
tomorrow and it'll be the Three amigos again. Thanks for

1108
01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:24,519
tuning in, and we will be back with more