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<v Speaker 1>Hey, it's Alex with the Token Metrics Daily Pulse for

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<v Speaker 1>April sixth, twenty twenty six. Iran ceasefire rumors just move

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin more than most FED meetings do. We've got that strategy,

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<v Speaker 1>buying another three hundred and thirty million dollars worth of

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin after losing fourteen billion in Q one, a North

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<v Speaker 1>Korea hack story that keeps getting worse, and the IMF

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<v Speaker 1>deciding today was a good day to warn everyone about tokenization.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get into it, but first a quick word from

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<v Speaker 1>our sponsor. Okay, So here's what's happening. So Bitcoin hit

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<v Speaker 1>a weekly high today, sixty nine thousand, four hundred dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>up about four percent. And the thing that moved it

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't an ETF filing or a FED pivot. It was

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire talks between the US and Iran. Unconfirmed ceasefire talks.

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<v Speaker 1>Oil dropped, Bitcoin popped. Ethereum actually outperformed on the day,

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<v Speaker 1>up nearly six percent. And while all that was happening,

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<v Speaker 1>strategy Michael Sailor's company quietly added another four thousand, eight

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and seventy one bitcoin for three hundred thirty million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars their total holdings are now approaching seven hundred sixty

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<v Speaker 1>seven thousand bitcoin. That's a lot of bitcoin. Here's where

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<v Speaker 1>everything landed today, Bitcoin around sixty nine thousand, Ethereum just

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<v Speaker 1>above twenty one hundred Solana around eighty two dollars. Total

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<v Speaker 1>crypto market cap sitting at about two point five trillion

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<v Speaker 1>now the detail worth flagging Bitcoin dominance is at fifty

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<v Speaker 1>six and a half percent, and Ethereum outperform Bitcoin today.

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<v Speaker 1>That's a small divergence, but it's worth watching. When Ethereum

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<v Speaker 1>leads on a risk on day, it usually means alts

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<v Speaker 1>A waking up too, and sure enough, the narrative trackers

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<v Speaker 1>back that up deepin that's decentralized physical infrastructure basically crypto

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<v Speaker 1>powered real world networks up thirty four percent on the week,

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<v Speaker 1>AI tokens up nearly twenty four percent, mean coins up

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<v Speaker 1>almost twenty one percent. The speculative end of the market

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<v Speaker 1>is catching the most heat right now. Real world assets

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<v Speaker 1>and DeFi these centralized finance are grinding higher, but they're

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<v Speaker 1>the slow lane compared to the MEME and AI rotation

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<v Speaker 1>happening underneath, and prediction markets are telling an interesting story.

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<v Speaker 1>Seventy eight and a half percent odds that Bitcoin closes

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<v Speaker 1>today in the sixty eight to seventy thousand band. That's

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<v Speaker 1>basically the market saying this rally is real, but don't

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<v Speaker 1>expect fireworks before midnight. Meanwhile, only three percent odds Bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>sets a new all time high before June thirtieth, Bullish

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<v Speaker 1>on the day, skeptical on the cycle. That's a tension

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<v Speaker 1>that gets resolved fast when a catalyst shows up. All right,

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<v Speaker 1>so what's actually driving all this? Let's start with the

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<v Speaker 1>geopolitical piece, because it's the most fragile part of today's story.

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<v Speaker 1>The Bitcoin rally to sixty nine thousand is built entirely

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<v Speaker 1>on reports of US RAN ceasefire talks, not confirmed talks.

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<v Speaker 1>Reports of talks, oil dropped, Bitcoin moved inversely higher, and

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<v Speaker 1>that oil to bitcoin correlation is becoming a real pattern now.

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<v Speaker 1>Macro traders, the big institutional money that moves markets, are

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<v Speaker 1>treating Bitcoin as a geopolitical release valve, which means when

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<v Speaker 1>the world feels slightly less on fire, money flows in fast.

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<v Speaker 1>The problem is the foundation here. A rally built on

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<v Speaker 1>diplomatic rumors has a very specific expiration date. If either

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<v Speaker 1>side denies the talks within forty eight hours, that bit evaporates,

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<v Speaker 1>watch sixty six thousand, five hundred as the level that

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<v Speaker 1>matters if this unwinds now. Here's where it gets interesting

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<v Speaker 1>with strategy. They just reported their bitcoin holdings lost fourteen

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<v Speaker 1>point four billion dollars in value in Q one twenty

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<v Speaker 1>twenty six. Then they bought more three hundred and thirty

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<v Speaker 1>million dollars more, funded through something called STRC preferred stock.

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<v Speaker 1>Think of it like a special class of shares they're

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<v Speaker 1>selling to raise cash, which they then used to buy bitcoin.

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<v Speaker 1>The takeaway is that this isn't just corporate conviction anymore.

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<v Speaker 1>The leverage is structural now, meaning it's baked into how

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<v Speaker 1>the company is financed, not just a one time decision.

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<v Speaker 1>They're issuing financial instruments to buy an asset that just

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<v Speaker 1>dropped fourteen billion in a quarter. That's either the most

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<v Speaker 1>disciplined high conviction trade in corporate history or a company

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<v Speaker 1>that's too far in to stop. Probably both. Okay, so

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<v Speaker 1>the drift hack we covered this yesterday, but the full

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<v Speaker 1>picture today is significantly worse. Two hundred and eighty million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars drained by North Korean operatives and here's the part

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<v Speaker 1>that should make every d five protocol team uncomfortable. This

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't a smart contract exploit, which means there was no

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<v Speaker 1>bug in the code to find and fix. North Korean

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<v Speaker 1>actors allegedly spent six months inside Drift's orbit, building trust,

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<v Speaker 1>mapping internal systems, getting close to the right people. Then

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<v Speaker 1>they drained it in minutes. The attack surface wasn't the protocol,

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<v Speaker 1>it was the humans around it, and Circle's response drew

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<v Speaker 1>criticism for being too slow to freeze funds. Circle being

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<v Speaker 1>the company that issues the USDC stable coin and technically

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<v Speaker 1>has the ability to block stolen funds. That points to

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<v Speaker 1>a gap that matters. Even when stable coin issuers have

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<v Speaker 1>the ability to act, the coordination speed isn't there yet.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no audit firm that checks for six months of

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<v Speaker 1>social engineering, and that's the uncomfortable reality every protocol team

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<v Speaker 1>needs to sit with. And then the IMF, the International

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<v Speaker 1>Monetary Fund, basically the global financial systems referee, weighed in

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<v Speaker 1>on tokenization today. Tokenization, if you're new to the term,

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<v Speaker 1>is the process of putting real world assets like stocks

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<v Speaker 1>or bonds, onto a blockchain. The IMF said the quiet

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<v Speaker 1>part loud tokenization doesn't eliminate systemic risk. It just moves

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<v Speaker 1>it onto faster rails. Here's what that actually means for you.

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<v Speaker 1>Their specific concern is that if tokenized assets settle peer

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<v Speaker 1>to peer without a central bank backstop, a liquidity crisis

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<v Speaker 1>in one corner of the market could cascade at blockchain

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<v Speaker 1>speed think two thousand and eight, but the contagion travels

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<v Speaker 1>faster than any regulator can respond. The bottom line is this.

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<v Speaker 1>The IMF warning isn't saying tokenization is dead. It's saying

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<v Speaker 1>governments are going to attach conditions to it before they

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<v Speaker 1>let it scale, things like requiring central bank oversight of settlement.

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<v Speaker 1>And since the market for putting real world assets on

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<v Speaker 1>chain is growing fast right now, with institutions filing products

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<v Speaker 1>left and right, that regulatory framework is coming sooner than

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<v Speaker 1>most people expect. If any G twenty central bank formally

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<v Speaker 1>endorses that framework in the next week, expect it to

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<v Speaker 1>reshape pending product filings immediately. One more thing on the

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<v Speaker 1>supply picture for bitcoin, even with today's rally seventy thousand,

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<v Speaker 1>is a real ceiling on chain data, which means tracking

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<v Speaker 1>where coins actually moved and at what prices shows heavy

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<v Speaker 1>supply concentration just above current prices. Coins that changed hands

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<v Speaker 1>between seventy and seventy three thousand during the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 1>four to twenty twenty five period haven't been sold yet,

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<v Speaker 1>which means those holders are sitting on losses and likely

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<v Speaker 1>to sell the moment they break even. That overhead supply

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<v Speaker 1>acts as a ceiling until volume or time clears it,

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<v Speaker 1>and layered on top of that is CPI on April tenth.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the inflation report, and a hot number would push

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<v Speaker 1>back expectations for interest rate cuts, which puts pressure on

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<v Speaker 1>risk assets like bitcoin. A market that just rallied on

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<v Speaker 1>geopolitical relief doesn't have the fundamental momentum to absorb a

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<v Speaker 1>supply wall and a hawkish inflation print at the same time.

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<v Speaker 1>If bitcoin closes above seventy thousand, five hundred on strong

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<v Speaker 1>volume before Thursday, the supply wall is being absorbed and

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<v Speaker 1>this rally has legs. If it stalls below seventy thousand

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<v Speaker 1>into the CPI print, sixty six five hundred is the

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<v Speaker 1>next level to watch. All Right, before we get into

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<v Speaker 1>the risks, quick word from our sponsor. Okay, we're back.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk about what to watch for. So what should

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<v Speaker 1>you actually be watching for on the risk side. First,

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<v Speaker 1>the geopolitical rally has no confirmed foundation. One denial from

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<v Speaker 1>either side of these Iran ceasefire talks and the bit evaporates.

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<v Speaker 1>Sentiment driven moves on diplomatic rumors are the most fragile

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<v Speaker 1>kind of rally. There is the same speed that brought

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<v Speaker 1>the price up can take it right back down. Second,

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<v Speaker 1>strategy's position is now a systemic variable in a way

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<v Speaker 1>it wasn't before. Seven hundred and sixty seven thousand bitcoin

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<v Speaker 1>funded through preferred stock issuance, which means they borrowed against

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<v Speaker 1>the company to buy bitcoin. Means a sustained draw down

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<v Speaker 1>below their average cost basis creates force selling pressure that

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<v Speaker 1>didn't exist in previous cycles. They're not just a buyer

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<v Speaker 1>any more. They're leveraged instrument correlated to bitcoin price, and

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<v Speaker 1>that changes the risk math for everyone. Third, the drift

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<v Speaker 1>hack changes the threat model for every DeFi protocol with

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<v Speaker 1>a team, a discord, and a hiring pipeline. Six months

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<v Speaker 1>of human infiltration drained two hundred and eighty million dollars.

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<v Speaker 1>The takeaway is simple, you can't patch human trust. Every

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<v Speaker 1>protocol that hasn't audited its internal access controls and social

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<v Speaker 1>engineering exposure is sitting on the same attack surface right

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<v Speaker 1>now looking ahead. Two things on my radar for the

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<v Speaker 1>next week April tenth is CPI the inflation report. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the one prediction. Markets are already pricing inflation scenarios, and

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<v Speaker 1>a hot number kills the rate cut narrative, which means

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<v Speaker 1>risk assets go back under pressure right as the geopolitical

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<v Speaker 1>rally fades. The timing is not great if you're bullish,

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<v Speaker 1>and watch for the drift post mortem. If it arrives

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<v Speaker 1>within seven days and name specific operational security failures, it

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<v Speaker 1>becomes the template for what every Salona protocol needs to

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<v Speaker 1>audit immediately. If it's delayed or vague, assume the lawyers

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<v Speaker 1>have taken over and the useful information won't surface for months.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the daily polls for April sixth. If you got

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<v Speaker 1>something out of today's episode, share it with a friend

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<v Speaker 1>who's into crypto. Honestly, that's the best way to support

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<v Speaker 1>what we're doing here. And if you want the full

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<v Speaker 1>written breakdown with all the sources, the newsletter is at

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<v Speaker 1>tokenmetrics dot com. As always, this is educational content, not

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<v Speaker 1>investment advice. Crypto is high risk. Do your own research

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<v Speaker 1>before making any financial decisions. I'm Alex, see you next time.