Speaker 1: The college Football Playoff is finally here. Well it was
here last week, but it doesn't matter. We're going to
get into the games that actually matter for the quarterfinals
up next on bet on It. Kelly Stewart, Marco D'Angelo, Yanni,
the Greek and I shouldn't say that not all of
the games mattered. A couple of them mattered, and a
couple of them really didn't. We previewed those and I
was a little shocked at some of the results. I'll
say that. Now we've got games headed into New Year's
Eve and New Year's Day, so we were recording early
here on wager Talk TV. Yanni, last week you said, hey,
we want to get to this one early. It's all
over our Instagram, but I did want to preview it
just in case anybody missed it. So can you give
us a quick synopsis on the Cotton Bowl New Year's
Eve that is Wednesday, seven thirty pm. Miami is a
nine and a half point underdog versus Ohio State total
forty two and a half.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and although Indiana beat this Ohio State team on paper,
Ohio State is still the number one power rated team
in college football. I know that's difficult for some fans
to wrap their heads around. But when it comes to
power rating, it's it's simply a mathematical equation that has
zero opinion on what it's sold. It's strictly data driven.
And like I said, power rating wise, Ohio State is
still above Indiana by at.
Speaker 3: Least two points.
Speaker 2: At least two points, and Indiana is legit now Miami.
Speaker 3: I was hard on Miami during.
Speaker 2: The regular season because I thought they were ranked higher
than they deserved and because they were rolling undefeated, and
the rank are based on that record.
Speaker 3: But when you dig into Miami, here's what you see.
Speaker 2: Defensively, they're sound, They're a top five defense, but they
had the forty fifth toughest schedule in college football, so
it's not all that impressive. But on the offensive side
is what worries me with Miami. They are barely a
top twenty five offensive team, and that's with the forty
fifth toughest strength of schedule, so they're going to have
a lot of trouble going up against Ohio State, which
is the number one defense in college football. Again, they
also had about a fortieth toughest strength of schedule, so
it wasn't the toughest strength of schedule, but still, you
know what, Ohio State has also very balanced top ten offense.
Speaker 3: They're the better team on paper, and.
Speaker 2: I think coupled with experience and that loss to Indiana,
you have a really motivated Ohio State team. My numbers
make them about a thirteen point favorite in this game.
I'm not surprised that that's not the number that's out there.
Seeing the money come in, it's pretty balanced. I think
they're gonna be heavier on Ohio State. That should be
the public team when it's all said and done, But
as long as it's lower than that minus ten, I
gotta take the Ohio State side. So gave it out
last week and still sticking with it. Nothing's changed. We're
on Ohio State minus the nine, nine and a half.
Speaker 1: Marco DiAngelo, welcome in to the show. It's been a
fun run here on bet on It. Let's keep it going.
And I hope you have the right answer here because
I have a futures bet on one of these teams.
Orange Bowl Thursday, New Year's Day, twelve pm. Oregon is
a two and a half point favorite versus Texas Tech
fifty two and a half. Here is the total. I
don't know, Marco. I came on the show in August
when we were doing our previews, and I said, you
guys are giving out fourteen to ones. You guys are
I'm gonna just be obnoxious and I'm gonna give out
a team that's one hundred and one. Now, I don't
really expect Texas tach too win the national championship, But
what the hell do I do with this ticket?
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, we have this discussion every year when you
get down to this part of the season and you
got those live big tickets. I'm old school, I'm conservative.
I always lock in a profit of something, you know,
for you, I would be looking at, you know, just
recoup at least what you wagered and then it's a
free role from there. That's my advice to you. But
I think you'll like what I have to say about
this particular round. I Am going to start with, Oregon
does have two edges in this game, okay, And what
it is is that Oregon played on this stage before
last year, and they already played a game this year.
Speaker 3: They played last week.
Speaker 4: The granted it was you know, a lot of people
made a lot of noise about Tulane and James Madison
being in the playoffs, but they were there, they played them,
and they were blowing James Madison out. But that last
touchdown late, I know, made a lot of the book
makers here in Las Vegas very happy last week in
they didn't cover. Now, with that said, I think that's where.
Speaker 3: The edges end.
Speaker 4: We know that Oregon can score, no question about that,
but I'm questioning will they be able to make enough
stops defensively?
Speaker 3: This Texas Tech defense is for real. Okay, you look at.
Speaker 4: What they've done this year, and when you think of
Texas Tech and you think of teams out of the
Big twelve, defense isn't the first thing that comes to
your mind with teams out of the Big twelve.
Speaker 3: But this team is for real.
Speaker 4: They are allowing just two point four yards per play
on the ground, a grand total of just seventy one
yards per game on the ground. And then you might say, yeah, Marco,
that's because they always had big leads and you know,
nobody was running the football.
Speaker 3: They were throwing the football trying to catch up.
Speaker 4: Well, guess what, they only allowed five point three yards
per play through the air and one hundred and eighty
four yards per game total. This defense is legit, and
I think it's gonna slow them down. Texas Tech held
ten of thirteen opponents this year to fourteen points or less,
six of them single digits. And offensively, they wear you down. Okay,
they run the football on average forty three times per
game over the last six weeks or the last six games.
I should say that sets the passing game up. You
keep pounding the football, pounding the football. They're wearing you down.
Then you start bringing those linebackers up to help. And
what happens, Man, They nail you with a big pass
play downfield. They are a complete team. I'm gonna go
ahead go with them. I'm gonna take the points here.
And you know, Oregon, what I said about that offense.
Remember there were three teams that held them in check.
Indiana held them to twenty, Wisconsin held them to twenty one,
in Iowa held them to eighteen. Texas Tech's defense is
better than all of those, except maybe Indiana. I'm gonna
go ahead take Texas Tech. Kelly. They advanced to the
next round.
Speaker 1: Wooh see, No Hedge, Marco, No Hedge, not gonna do it.
I wasn't gonna do it anyway. This is a different scenario.
I didn't bet a ton on this. Again, it was
a flyer.
Speaker 3: It was fun.
Speaker 1: It was like one hundred to one or you guys insane.
Plus we already cash Texas Tech to win the Big twelve,
so we're kind of basically free rolling it here. If
for somehow, some reason, this team catches lightning in a
bottle with that defense, I will take it all. Right.
Before we get to VR, I got a quick promo
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guys probably watch this video and then I'm gonna get
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Speaker 3: But Wednesday, New.
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Speaker 4: Yeah, Weekend Warrior every weekend forty nine dollars gets you
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Speaker 1: Six awesome stuff from Marco. We are going back to
you because I gotta know your thoughts on this one.
The Rose Bowl Thursday, four pm. Alabama is a six
and a half point underdog versus Indiana forty eight and
a half. You mentioned power ratings wise about Indiana Ohio state,
but this is Alabama and sometimes you're paying a premium. Now.
I used to always say Nick Samon as an underdog
is someone that I want to back. I'm not sure,
Kaylin debor is an underdog is a team I want
to back, But this one's bounced back and forth from
six and seven. Seems like every time it hits seven,
somebody gobbles it up. Yep, he goes right back to
six and a half. Kirk Sinnetti amazing underdog coach as well.
Love him now, always asked to be in a different role.
Kind of break down this one for us in the
Rose Bowl.
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is a great game.
Speaker 2: And just a disclaimer, I have a future on Ohio
State the national championship and I have a future on
Alabama to win the National championship. Both are to win
about twenty five units, and I'm not hedging either. I
look at it this way, even though you know Alabama's
a big dog, Ohio State's a big favorite, I'm gonna
roll the dice and look for one of them to
get there.
Speaker 3: Obviously, the hedge is an available.
Speaker 2: On the Alabama Indiana side, unless I bet live if
Alabama gets out and gets a lead or anything like that.
But in the Ohio State side, as I told you,
I already liked the Ohio State. Unless I get any
conflicting information, I probably won't hedge that. Even though it
does have a nice middle ten point middle. So we'll
see between now on Saturday, but for this one, there
will not be a hedge. I'm gonna let it ride.
And here's where it stands. Indiana is legit. That's the
bottom line. There's balance as they come. They have a
top three offense, they have a top three defense, and
they had a top twenty strength of schedule.
Speaker 3: It's not by accident.
Speaker 2: This team's thirteen and zero, and more importantly, they're coming
off their biggest win. The positive for them is that
they've had a lot of time between that win against
Ohio State and this bowl game. Meaning if it was
the week after, it would be a big letdown spot
for them against Alabama. That's not the case. That's why
I think you're seeing this line up around seven because
power rating wise it's a little bit too high. I
make this based on my power ratings about a five,
five and a half point max for Indiana. That's even
after a slight upgrade on the Indiana side. So power
rating wise, if you could get seven, Alabama looks like
the side.
Speaker 3: But I'm gonna look at the total here.
Speaker 2: I think we would take advantage of the under based
on the recency bias on the Alabama side. Alabama's coming
off a game where the total was listed at about
forty one and a half forty two, all right, they
almost eclipsed that themselves, putting up thirty four points against Oklahoma.
More importantly, you look at Alabama other than that Georgia,
the ugly Georgia game where they only put up seven,
they've put up twenty one or more points in FIDA
last five games, and more importantly, they've allowed twenty or
more points in for their last five games. There's some
recency bias on that total because when you look at
the Indiana side, even though against Ohio stated was a
low scoring game with a low total prior to that,
they put up fifty six thirty one, twenty seven, fifty five,
fifty six, thirty eight. They've put up some points and
they've had a lot of overs as well, so we
have an inflated total because of that.
Speaker 3: And I think it just sets up with that type
of game.
Speaker 2: You're looking at two really elite defenses, but they're also
balanced on the offensive side of the ball. Like if
it was just defense, then I would actually look to
go over because then I think the would be towards
the under, but that's not the case because when you
look at Alabama, they're a top ten offense. When you
look at Indiana, they're a top three offense. And that's
why this total is as high as it is. Well,
flip the script and it's Alabama. The defense is actually
more efficient, and the defense for Indiana is actually more efficient.
They just don't get as much as of the credit.
So we're gonna look to play this one under that
high total, and public's betting it over, so I think
it's also going to be one of the needs that
the books have as well. So I'm gonna go under
forty eight and a half in Alabama Indiana.
Speaker 1: That looks almost as terrifying as the next game under
the total I'm gonna talk about the Sugar Bowl Thursday night,
eight pm Eastern. Ole miss is a six and a
half point undered on versus Georgia fifty six and a half.
This one's taken some money as well, and rightfully so.
The last time these two played it was an absolute
another shootout forty three thirty five finish back in Week eight,
But since then, Georgia is only allowing eleven point six
points per game and helding every single one of those
opponents to under twenty one points. Ole Miss has also
been playing better defense thirteen point two points per game
in their last five games. And remember that two lane offense.
While they may be a non powerhouse program, we're still
doing four hundred and eleven yards per game and top
twenty five offense. So they held them to ten points,
but they did give up four and twenty yards, so keep.
Speaker 3: An eye there.
Speaker 1: Kind of lean towards the under but I'm gonna say this,
this is where the rubber meets the road. Ole Miss
took money at seven and they still have one of
the most explosive defenses almost five hundred yards per game,
ranked second. But what we saw last time, their defense
does show some signs of weakness against other offenses such
as Gunner Stockton and Georgia.
Speaker 3: Let's talk about.
Speaker 1: Gunner Stockton real quick gets number ten Texas four touchdowns
win twenty four to twenty nine, and the SEC Championship
versus number nine Alabama one hundred and fifty six yards
and three touchdowns. Nate Frasier powerhouse running back eight hundred
and sixty one rushing yards in those games and keeps
Georgia very balanced offensively. Hand up, I do have a
Georgia Bulldog future. I from ten to one to win
the National Championship. So I'm trying to give you guys
the most unbiased opinion on this game. That being said,
I do like the Dogs here. I know Ole Miss
is gonna put up a ton of yards, as they
have in almost every single game this year except for
that Georgia game where they were held to season low
three hundred and fifty one yards. Kirby Smart the best,
better head coach, and he has the defensive firepower against
Ole Miss. I like the Dogs under a touchdown. Make
sure if it gets back up to seven, you tread
lightly Dogs minus six and a half. All right, guys,
this is not our last college football show, but it
kind of feels like it. We'll be back for the
semi finals as well as the National Championship. Thank you
to VR. Thank you to Marco for all of your
awesome contribution and winners this year.
Speaker 3: On bet on It.
Speaker 1: You guys are looking for the NFL edition, It'll be
out normal time and we'll throw it up right here.
We'll put the Mega Show for you guys until next week.
Let's bet on it.