Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody? Welcome into another episode of Profit Picks.
If you are new, we do always start the show
by being transparent. Yesterday another day, positive day. It was
one in one, but my top play one which was
the Wizards plus fourteen and a half, So love that.
I did lose on Houston Cougar's first half. Man, they've
fallen off a cliff lately with that first half, you know.
But yeah, how's everything going for you? How'd you do yesterday?
Speaker 2: It's funny you say that one in one and you
still made money, because that's how it went in the
NBA for me yesterday. Overall. You know, in this business,
we're doing what we do. We call it grinding out
every day, and ye say, it's what I did college
pro grind out. A couple of units came out on
the positive band, bigger finish to the day. Then beginning
Ski the early part of the day looked like it
wasn't good to be too cool, but came on late
and won a bunch here in the NBA. The winner
was Phoenix team total over against Indiana. So they've been
kind to me twice in a row against bad defenses.
But the loss, where did I go wrong. Oh you
know what. We talked about it on this show, and
I told you I crossed it off my card, and
then the injury report came out and I put it
back on my card. Milwaukee and Miami over the total
and they didn't come close, so I got a one
in one. But the Phoenix was the bigger place. So
we'll take grinding out of profit every day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we do this three hundred and sixty five days,
so if only we're gonna win a little bit one day,
we will take it all.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: There goes Mark saying Saint Louis with the early w Yeah,
that's a crazy game right there. I only saw the
score in the first half. I didn't even see how
they came back, but I did see you know the result.
Appreciate you lucky power mind everybody to hit the like
button and share the video and we will get to it.
We have about eight games on the slate. We are
going to start with the Knicks and Pacers opened up
minus eleven and a half now looks like thirteen and
a half. Toto hasn't really moved. Let's get to the
injuries for the Knicks. Art is doubtful, Sohan doubtful, Town's doubtful.
McBride's still out for the Pacers, McConnell probable, Nie Smith questionable,
topping probable, Jackson Nemar Zubac questionable, Seam doubtful. Man, these
Pacers games, I mean, they're just rated in the season.
I feel like I probably just bet over in this game.
I don't think I really trust either defense right now,
but I'm probably not betting this game. You know, are you?
Speaker 2: Yeah? The Pacers, they make it kind of easy to
just fade their defense night in and night out. Again,
I won't do I did it yesterday, I did it
a couple of days ago. Read you the last eight
results of what they've given up. It's, you know, seven
games over one twenty three or better, six of one
thirty or better. To get the Knicks to one twenty
one tonight, seems like I should be there, Ski I'm
not there yet. But their resistance on the defensive end,
it's just non existent. Phoenix is not even a great
offensive team. I think the combo of Booker and Jalen
Green last night had close to eighty combined. So it's
an easy defense to score against. Here, you're asking the
Knicks to get the one twenty one. It's been doable
like nine out of the last ten games against this
Pacer defense. I may get there, but I haven't yet.
Speaker 1: All Right, Yeah, I'm gonna we can move over to
the next game. I don't think I'm getting there on
that one. Grizzlies and Pistons opening up minus fifteen looks
like fifteen and a half or sixteen mostly sixteen's out there.
Actually total has gone up quite a bit. Looks like here.
I think the opener was two thirty seeing it as
high as two thirty four. Injury report here for Memphis,
I see Gibson questionable, Gigi Jackson questionable, Wells questionable, Walter
Clayton Junior is doubtful, no Aldamo, Clark or Morant. For Detroit,
Lavert is probable, During is questionable, Tobias is questionable, and
Asar Thompson is doubtful. You know, one thing I like
for the Pistons is their offenses look really good lately,
not that their defense hasn't, but like the way they've
been sharing the ball and it's translating into you know,
good scoring performances. That is something I like to bet on,
whether it's scoring points for the game or the side. Well,
you have a sixteen point spread, you know you don't
need a little bit more than that. And I get
their defense has been good too, But I don't know
if I can trust them to be locked in for
a full forty eight Like the other day when I
bet Detroit minus I think it was like fourteen or
something like that after four straight ls like that. That
was motivation in that game. I know that they're going
to be motivated for four straight games, and it was
versus a team that just beat them this game. I
just have trouble thinking they're going to be motivated the
entire time. I think the guys on the Memphis side
are looks like Ti Jerome is active. I mean, that's
a guy that I really care about. If I like
Memphis starting to talk myself into the grizzly side, or
maybe it's the overside. You know what, If I can
trust Detroit to share the ball like they've been sharing it,
and you got Ti Jerome on the other side, I
think I can get there with an over. Any thoughts
here on either, can you talking me off Memphis? Can't
talk me off? The over you know, be hard to ski.
Speaker 2: I mean it's the second of back to backs for both.
They both played last night. I think the schedule maker, boy,
they were not knowingly but certainly have been kind to
the Pistons. They were on that four game losing streak,
and then the schedule maker hits them with Brooklyn the
seventy six ers with two thirds of their team on
the bench not playing, and now Memphis and Detroit's capitalized.
I mean, they came off the four game losing streak
one thirty eight to one hundred over Brooklyn. So to
your point, it gets you to the over, it gets
you to well, that gets you to the favorite, not
the dog. But then Philly last night one thirty one
to one oh nine. So back to back games against
weak opposition over one thirty. Back to back games against
weak opposition win by twenty plus. Here's the third in
a row. What's interesting about Detroit is the way they
managed the minutes last night. Eleven guys between twelve and
twenty four minutes. Nobody played extensively in that blowout of
the six Ers. So no matter who plays tonight, they'll
be rested. The Memphis side, second of back to backs,
another defense hasn't been great to begin with. But you know,
Detroit doesn't bring the full effort. I could see a
full game total. You could almost if I put it
this way, Ski, If you think the Pistons are going
to find their way to like, let's say one twenty four,
one twenty five, then Memphis doesn't have to do a
whole heck of a lot to get this the rest
of the way home, especially you know the Pistons second
of back to backs would travel. How interested will the
defense be? Not really sure, So I can't talk you
off of either. But I do think the Pistons have
been fortunate the last three games to have the schedule
lineup the way it did, and they've kind of righted
a ship against these bad basketball teams.
Speaker 1: I am most willing to take both here. Really, I
think I like the over more I do. I think
I can trust the Pistions. But I just tied the
wrong too, and you got during questionable right. Yeah, you
know this is one that I'm gonna and I'm looking
at it just making sure if I need to open
up my wallet now or not. You know, I looked
at this last night. The over was two thirty two
and a half by the time I liked it. Now
it's two thirty three and a half. Even some two
thirty four is out there. I don't want to miss
out on any more points, is what I'm trying to say.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it doesn't look like it's going backwards.
Speaker 1: You're right, I'm gonna keep it right there. I'll keep
my eye on it while we continue to show. I
write both of them on my list, but pretty sure
one of them will be in my pocket.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: Next game up here, Sons and Raptors just went open
minus three and a half. Looks like four and a
half now total right around the opener of two eighteen
and a half. For Phoenix. You have good Win questionable,
Brooks and Williams both out. For Toronto, you have Scottie
Barnes questionable with the newness CMB doubtful. I'll ask you
this before I passed this to you. You know you've
played on a basketball team before, correct I had? Do
you remember you don't have to tell us who it is,
but do you remember who is maybe the team you
who your worst loss was against.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it can as a matter of fact.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's the kind of shit you don't forget, you know,
when you get your asked, well, it don't just disappear.
Speaker 2: I didn't know where you were going at first, but
now I get where you're going with it. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So the last time the Suns played the Raptors, they
beat him by over forty points. And like I said,
you don't forget these kind of assholes. It wasn't this season,
But I don't think that really matters. You have a
Raptors team who is off of two losses, I believe,
right back to back losses. They come in this game
at home with the rest advantage versus team on the
back to back. I like the Raptors. I bet the
Raptors at three and a half. What do you think?
Speaker 2: You know? Yeah, it's interesting too. Well, the first thing,
I mean, there's not a heck of a lot of
leftovers from that Phoenix team, but you probably I'm sure
Devin Booker doesn't forget. I think it's difficult for Phoenix
two Ski. It's a third road game in four nights,
and if you're playing a motivated team third and four,
and you had the shooting or the scoring performances that
you had out of Booker in Green last night, you
just don't see those types of things getting repeated on
back to back nights, and again last night was done
in a game where you know the defense is three
class steps down from what Toronto was defensively. You'd love
to have Scottie Barnes in the game because he does
bring a little more defensive presence to and some playmaking, etc.
But there's enough of a case to be made here
to play against to fade Phoenix. You talked about maybe
the memory the revenge angle. I'm thinking the travel angle
doesn't work for them. Toronto's rested, they're not. They have
to go to Boston. Phoenix does, but it does come
with a couple of days rest. So maybe this one
is the one that gets in their way and they
can rest up for Boston. I could see a lot
of reasons why this line moved toward Toronto. The one
thing that bothers me a little bit. I'm not saying
it would keep me totally off, but I'd like to
have Scottie Barnes. I'd like to know he's playing a
big part of that team on both ends of the floor.
Can't look at Phoenix here. Though they did the right
thing for me last night, I don't think that's repeatable here.
Against this team. Indiana's just in such a horrendous defensive
class that you can't compare them to anything.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brian Scottie Barnes did play brandon Ingram did not
in that game. In that game there, uh man, really quick.
I never said this, but I'm just saying really quick.
Never said this ever on any like where anybody can
see it. But I don't think any of my friends
watched this anyway, and I would say it anyway now.
But when I had I transferred away from Fairfax and
I came back to Fairfax and the first game I played,
it's the same semester who I transferred away and came back.
The first game I played, it was like I was
new to the team, you know, they didn't want me
to play or whatever. I came in the second half
and I had a good game. Then the next game
we played, we played versus our rival school and we
got beat down Robino. Again, I didn't start. I didn't
really play that much, but because I was new, I
was like, you know, it was like my I was
barely at school for a week or two, and then
I got in and I was doing all right, but
I was so mad. I had never lost like that
in my life. We lost by like thirty something forty points.
You know, I couldn't. I couldn't believe it. I never
ever lost in my life like that. I never barely lost.
I used to always win. So to come on the
team and lose like that, I still have never forgotten
it to this day. So that's why I started off
by asking you that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny too, Ski, even on a lesser level,
coaching younger kids, my sons and playing a guy who
you know they had. The talent gap was evident beating
our team by maybe thirty five with four minutes left
and still full court pressing with his first team, and
I was like, you know what, I'd love to just
have fifteen minutes alone with you outside because it's crazy.
You're right, stuff like that, even from that much lower perspective,
you don't really forget. And when you see these people
the next time, you're like, Okay, things are a little
different now.
Speaker 1: Yep, all right. So that's that's how I'm feeling about
that one. I like the Rappers. Next game, I don't
have a strong opinion. You know, the storytime I used
up on the last game. I will I'll give you
all the time here if you want this game at
all open twelve now fourteen total skyrocketed from thirty one
and a half, I guess to thirty seven and a half.
What do you think here of.
Speaker 2: Being a yeah? I think I missed the boat. I
should have played Cleveland team total when it opened at
one twenty three and a half, but I was busy
doing college work all night last night, and I let
it go. And now we're looking at one twenty five
and a half when twenty six and a half even
in some spots, which I'm not saying Cleveland can't do it,
but Dallas on a back to back with that defense
doesn't really thrill me. I just I would have rather
had a better number SKI, So I didn't play. I
won't play, and you're right, we could move on to
New Orleans Houston if you want.
Speaker 1: All right, Pelicans and Rockets. I do have an opinion here.
Didn't really move on the side, but the total dick
go up from two twenty six and a half in
it at two thirty and a half right now. Injury
report Shangoon is questionable, Tata's out, A fleet is out
for the Pelicans, McGowan's is out. I really my first
thought was dang Pelicans getting seven points. Oh, I was
almost ran to the window. But what I don't like
is Pelicans could be satisfied coming off that win as
an underdog. Rockets just got beat down. As much as
I don't like the Rockets as much as they haven't
been playing well, I feel like when they get embarrassed
or when they lose bad, they were performing the next game.
Now this is their third game in four knights. You know,
not the greatest spots. But what I just said is
what kept me off of New Orleans plus seven. Any
thoughts from you on Repelicans and Rockets, You know.
Speaker 2: I think I you know, I was inclined to get
to the total here two thirty and a half. I
think despite the fact that Houston is a pretty good
rebounding and decent defensive team, I like what New Orleans
has in the way of a rotation. Now as far
as scoring goes, you know, when Trey Murphy plays, Now
that Murray's out there every night, Zion Sadik Bay has
played well, They've got they've got scoring potential. So I
don't think Houston's defense is going to get in the
way of the Pelicans scoring enough to push this thing over.
And the reason why I would like the Houston side
to get their share here is exactly what you said.
Not only did they get smashed, which was predictable, it
was the Denver game right up in altitude a couple
of nights ago, when they were never close, but their
offense was so bad. I love to play bounce backs
for teams, so I do think Houston at home will
bounce back offensively here. And like I says, I like
the New Orleans the rotation that they have right now
from an offensive standpoint, I don't know that Houston can
necessarily stop them from doing what's necessary to get over
to thirty and a.
Speaker 1: Half and talk you off and over Wolves and Warriors.
Minus six for the Wolves here, six and a half's
out there on the road right now. Totals coming down
from the two twenty seven and a half opener as
Los to twenty four. Looking at the injuries, Desumbo is
questionable for Minnesota, Melton posts are both questionable for Golden State.
Steph is out, Modi's out. Every time I see Minnesota
with a minus sign, I want to go the other way.
I really do. I'm just trying to double check and
see the Warriors. They're coming off that lost versus the Bulls.
They had two days off, they did not have to travel. Yeah,
as bad as the Warriors have been playing lately, happen
those two days off and not having to travel, it
does give you time to work on whatever was going wrong.
And the Warriors, I mean, and the Wolves not been
good at laying you know, laying points all season. So
it's Warriors or nothing for me at home. And he
thought from you here, you know.
Speaker 2: This was one game where I had zero thought. Ski.
If you felt strong, I would tail. But I don't. Again,
the Minnesota stuff we go over at nauseum. Right, it
is the same thing you just said it. When you
see a minus sign next to their name, it's they're
so difficult to handicaps. They've been so inconsistent all season long.
Could look at them from a totals perspective, most notably
from an over look. But I don't know that I
trust Golden State's offense enough. The rest is nice, but
Golden State, I don't know. The game just doesn't interest me.
So if you're not strong on it, then that gives
me all the reason to cross it off.
Speaker 1: All right, no problem with that. We can keep it
moving to the next game, that is the Jazz and Blazers,
And uh yeah, I I have zero interest in this game,
but I'll tell you've seen the Blazers minus fifteen. That's
pretty telling to me. You know, the Jazz team that's
gonna be out there is not going to be good.
Speaker 2: That's incredible.
Speaker 1: Anything you want to do here, you know, Jazz and Blazers, you.
Speaker 2: Know what you would like anytime Jazz are in Fathers,
you would just like to play over, but you may
you may be able to addn't know Portland's team total, Yeah,
that's even one. Twenty six numbers are just too high
and ridiculous here, Ski, I'd let the whole thing go.
I mean again, the one thing that if I wanted
to take twenty thirty minutes to investigate this game, maybe
I would come up with an over. But I don't
want to twenty thirty minutes to waste on better things
than this one.
Speaker 1: Fair, very fair last game on the slate. We will
look at the Bulls and the Clippers opened up. Minus
eleven for the Clippers is now thirteen to it open
two thirty three. Seeing uh, it's all over the place.
We'll call it two thirty four. A consensus right now.
Injuries a chro Sexton, Williams, Jabu Selli questionable for the Bulls,
Simon Smith doubtful, Ivy is out. All for the Clippers
has been rolled out, Collins is out. Man. That those
arench And what I like here because I like the
over and I bet the over and Garland has been
rolled out. So that is not not good. What do
you think here of you.
Speaker 2: Know, yeah, I mean we're both on the same wavelength
where this Clippers team is concerned. We see them on
the board at this point in time. We want to
play their games over. What bothered me a little bit
was Chicago on back to backs. Of course, it's just
in la uh, but I don't know that their offense.
You know, to get one thirty against the Laker defense
is one thing. To get it against the Clippers, even
to get the one ten against the Clippers in the
second of back to backs is another. So then I
went to look at the Clipper team total and that
one was around one twenty three I think at the time.
But without Darius Garland, we know that this whole philosophy
that we've been betting in cat capitalizing on is predicated
really on Garland speeding up the tempo for this team.
I don't think they'll play slow. I think it's ingrained
in them now. This is the way we're gonna play.
Just I kind of preferred Darius Garland, but if I
had to ski the proverbial gun to head, I think
I would try Clippers team total over. The Bulls defense
is non existent, and they're on the second of back
to backs, and the Clippers have been racking up points.
So maybe even without Garland, you could isolate and play
Clipper team total over.
Speaker 1: Hmm, Clipper team total over still without Garland. So you
don't trust the bullside as much as you trust the
Clippers without Garland still, is what you're saying.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I didn't bet it, But the thinking here
is that I don't think they'll change playing fast even
if Garland doesn't play. Obviously you'd rather have him, but
I think they'll stick with, you know, tempo, especially against
a team playing their second the back to backs and
the Bulls defense in the second of back to back.
I don't know. I just I would love to fade
that as well. So don't trust the Bulls as much
as I trust the Clippers side. What they're doing, what
they're preaching nowadays, and this situation kind of lines up again.
I haven't played it, but I could. I could probably
talk myself into it if I had a big afternoon
and just wanted to, you know, keep betting. Yeah, let's
keep betting and bet the Clippers over.
Speaker 1: I think they still can go over. I do. I'm
looking uh, I'm looking at it a little bit more.
I mean from the Bulls side. First of all, the
Bulls have been an underteam this season on back to backs,
right have you looked at that? I think they were
something around eight and three mark or something like that.
But they're two and zero this season unrested as long
as their opponent has rest. So all those games where
both teams were no rest, when they're unrested and their
opponent has, they're two and oh to the over and
those games average two to fifty five point five. I
forgot who those games were against. But that's saying that
the Bulls don't mind playing fast on the second of
a back to back. Now, for the Clippers side, yes,
we like Garland, we would like if Garland was in.
But the Clippers are eight and one to the over
this season when they have the rest advantage person unrested opponent.
Doesn't that sound like that matches up there?
Speaker 2: Are you know?
Speaker 1: I mean all nine of those games we're not with Garland.
Garland has only been there and played five games total. Right, Yeah,
I mean that sounds like reasons why they can still
score any thoughts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is when I, you know, hold up those
flash cards. Let's say sdq L come here, I come
here to get those types of numbers. It all makes sense.
I mean, obviously they're Tylu has changed this team into
a pace team, so they're not going to change that tonight.
And do we really think that without Darius Garland that
they're going to be I don't know, ten twelve to
fifteen points worse offensively against the Bulls defense on the
second of back to back. No, you probably don't. They
can get whatever they're averaging here tonight. My only problem
again with full game, was I didn't expect the Bulls
to be that good offensively against this defense. Against the
Lakers defense is one thing. Against these defense could be another.
But you know, I can't talk anybody off full game.
I would prefer if I was going to play, to
just trust the Clippers to get to one twenty four
against the Bulls. And you said, I think you said
two and oh to the over and those games were
around two point fifty five, which would pretty clearly indicate
as I try to look for those games that the
opponent of the Bulls scored pretty well in those games.
If the full game got the two fifty five, whoever
the opponent was scored really really well.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna pull it up. Teams still
a team equals Bulls and season, and.
Speaker 2: One might be Denver on the seventeen.
Speaker 1: I got you right now. You know one was the
Nuggets and one was the Jazz. So there are teams
who think score more than the Clippers.
Speaker 2: Let's look at the score. Scored a lot. You're right,
they scored a lot.
Speaker 1: Let's look at the other side, Clippers and the other
trend that I mentioned the Clippers. So some of those
games were lately. In these games, I need to maybe
look at which ones Garland's played. I think Garland's played
some of these games. Garland did not play versus Purs.
They went over that total, but the total was lower
versus the Pelicans Clippers scored one thirty seven. That's definitely
I think before Garland not sure. I get I get
the point of, you know, those team totals were less,
but I would ask the question of, you know, if
that's the case, because that's what Tommy said. Yeah, but
Skeeter team's totals like one on nine and a half
in those games. Bro, why this game open two thirty
three and not go down? Why is it? Why is
it not going down? If that's the case, That's what
I would ask, And solution says, bulls are not playing defense.
Would you agree?
Speaker 2: You know, yeah, I think that's a major part of
what at least I'm talking about. And you two and
we're talking about fading Bulls defense for sure. I'm just
looking here Ski to see, you know, when pace increases,
when you make the switch like Tylu made a lot
of times because you're playing faster, you could still be
a good defense, but you'll give up more points because
there's more possessions in a game. Right, So I'm trying
to just go over these numbers that the Clippers have
allowed since they decided they were going to be a
pace team. If I go back to I don't know
would it be fair to say that they started playing
this way. I don't know which.
Speaker 1: Game, Garland game. I think.
Speaker 2: If we use this month, if we use March first,
they've given up one seventeen one oh one, one oh
seven one sixteen one, twenty one, eighteen one, twenty eight.
It kind of seems like because they're playing faster, they
are giving up more, which would put some credence into
you saying you like full game over. You can't be
swayed off of that because it does look like maybe
they're just giving up more buckets because they're playing faster.
Speaker 1: You know what, I think just not having James Harden
on the team makes your team play faster. And I
think that any team playing the Bulls is willing to play,
you know, or not willing to play. But you know
the Bulls are going to try to play a tempo.
Do you agree?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Wait a minute now, because you had question time,
so I get question time. And now we know you
played with you and when you played a team that
you knew couldn't guard, you couldn't check you, and you
knew you could get yours. You were out there to
get yours right, run it up. Absolutely, that's got to
be the way the Clippers. You know, I think teams
look at that, guys, look at that got these guys
tonight week Lakers just scored one. We can go get
one thirty pretty easy against these guys, and they're gonna
look to put it in the hole. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Last five games, Bulls are number three in pace, Clippers
are number nine in pace. At the very least, I
think it'll be an up tempo game. We shall see.
Speaker 2: Remember that life where man, this Bulls roster has like
nine guards on it. Now, that's why your pace picks up.
Got guards running.
Speaker 1: Oh man, all right, I think we did a solid
job here today. Let's see. Is there any last comment?
Tommy says, it went up to two thirty six and
a half, then back down to thirty four and a half. Okay,
still didn't go down to two twenty. You know what
I'm saying. That's all I'm saying. All right, best bets,
or before we put that up, let's do our our promo.
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Speaker 2: I feel like my dog in the other room wants
to see the graphic. He's barking, like, where's that graphic?
With all the dogs? I'll go best bet here, Ski
because I'm in the midst of playing right now this
New Orleans Houston game over two thirty and a half.
I talked about why I liked it earlier. I really
feel like New Orleans can score on any defense at
this point in time, and I like the Rockets bounce
back angle from a really really bad offensive performance against
Denver to scoring against New Orleans tonight. So I'm gonna
leave that as a best bet as I click the
button here to make this play over too. Thirty and
a half is the number I got just now, and
it looks readily available. Wish I had gotten it sooner,
but I still think there's a wiggle room to win
this one, So best bet New Orleans Houston full game
total over two thirty and a half.
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff for myself. I may very well
push the button after this show. I may not, honestly,
but if I am pushing a button, that's my do.
My that's my do, And anybody gotta say anything, you
let me know that my dog dog For tonight, I
absolutely have to go with the Grizzlies plus sixteen and
a half. I mean, yes, it's the back to back
for both teams. It's still the fifth game and seven
nights for the Pistons, and the Pistons they are all
back to back blowout wins. It could be a little
bit complacent coming into this one for the Grizzlies. I
like that Ty Jeromes in the lineup, and I just
think this is ultimately too many points. So if I'm
betting a dog today, it is the Grizzlies plus sixteen
and a half. You know, I appreciate you. Taking the
time to catch these games and break them down with
me helps my process, I'm sure we hope everybody else
as well. And I see that never on the move.
I might have to push the button as soon as
I hang up the video right now because I still
see what I can grab. But yeah, appreciate you, Veno.
Everybody in the chat we appreciate you as well, and
we'll be back next week, So best of luck on
all your action this weekend. We'll catch you guys. Then
I heard that dog too,