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<v Speaker 1>In June, the United States and Iran signed a memorandum

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<v Speaker 1>of understanding to cease hostilities, but it hasn't held. Both

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<v Speaker 1>sides have continued to exchange file the Strait of Hormos

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<v Speaker 1>has hardly reopened. So does Iran want to deal? Joining

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<v Speaker 1>me now is doctor Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East and North Africa Program at Chathamhouse SL I'm welcome.

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<v Speaker 1>So first, will it be fair to say that we're

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<v Speaker 1>sort of fundamentally where we are because the United States

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<v Speaker 1>is looking for a kind of quick exit, almost to

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<v Speaker 1>kind of quick transaction to get the straight open, and

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<v Speaker 1>the Iranians are looking for some kind of long term

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<v Speaker 1>resolution to the broad issue of the hostility between the

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<v Speaker 1>United States and Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>Well. President Trump has always celebrated the fact that he

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<v Speaker 2>is a deal maker, a transactional president, if you will.

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<v Speaker 2>But what we have observed and learned since he's come

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<v Speaker 2>into office, particularly in this second administration, is that the

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<v Speaker 2>quick transactions are not delivering sustainable peace processes or even

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<v Speaker 2>sustainable MOUs and that is what's problematic. The problems of

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East can't be resolved in a quick transaction.

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<v Speaker 2>They're all interconnected, they're transnational and they require deeper negotiations

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<v Speaker 2>that this administration, but perhaps also the international community today

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<v Speaker 2>is not really prepared to invest in.

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<v Speaker 1>So what kind of a deal does Iran want? What

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<v Speaker 1>does Iran want here?

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<v Speaker 2>I ultimately still believe that Iran does want the bigger deal.

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<v Speaker 2>It does need to unlock sanctions, relief and frozen assets

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<v Speaker 2>and come to a modus vivendi with the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think it recognizes that in this Trump administration

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<v Speaker 2>there are divisions within Trump's circle. The president, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>is increasingly frustrated, and it recognizes that it probably cannot

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<v Speaker 2>get that bigger deal out of this administration. So it's

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<v Speaker 2>seeking to preserve its leverage, and that includes the Strait

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<v Speaker 2>of Hormuz, which is, you know, what it got out

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<v Speaker 2>of the war. Secondly, of course, it still has its

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear program, which is unresolved, of course buried, to use

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump's words. So it needs to maintain this leverage

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<v Speaker 2>and try to achieve something at the negotiating table when

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<v Speaker 2>the time is right, when both parties are actually willing

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<v Speaker 2>to concede in a meaningful.

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<v Speaker 1>Way, can they take the pain? The economy is in

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<v Speaker 1>terrible shape, you know, these bombings must have destroyed it. Further,

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<v Speaker 1>they're being sanctioned, you know, are they? Is it possibly?

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<v Speaker 1>Run is overplaying its hand. It's it's in some sense

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<v Speaker 1>tactically one right. It has. It has achieved what was

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<v Speaker 1>trying to do. Should they not be searching for a

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<v Speaker 1>way out more more.

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<v Speaker 3>Than they are?

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<v Speaker 2>I personally believe they should. I think they are overplaying

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<v Speaker 2>their head. And I think that the longer this war

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<v Speaker 2>goes on, it will boomerang back on them the region.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's neighbors wholly oppose this war and have worked very

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<v Speaker 2>hard diplomatically to mediate and to find off ramps. And

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<v Speaker 2>the longer this goes on, the more Iran and Iran

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<v Speaker 2>back groups continue to spread the conflict around the region,

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<v Speaker 2>the more there will be a sort of anti Iran

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<v Speaker 2>alliance developing. And I think that's problematic for Iran. But

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranians, to answer your question, don't make existential decisions

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<v Speaker 2>based on macroeconomic indicators. They see this war as do

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<v Speaker 2>or die for them, and they not only need to survive,

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<v Speaker 2>they need to merge from this war with cards in

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<v Speaker 2>their hand that they can play at the negotiating table.

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<v Speaker 2>And they don't want to be cowed by President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>or forced to submit like the Venezuelans were.

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<v Speaker 1>So, if there was one thing you would tell American

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<v Speaker 1>policy makers to understand right now to get out of

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<v Speaker 1>this mess, what would it be?

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<v Speaker 2>I would say that they need to understand their adversary.

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<v Speaker 2>This adversary doesn't only answer to pressure, that incentives inducements,

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<v Speaker 2>and proper negotiations is the way through and the way

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<v Speaker 2>out of this mess. The United States and President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>can be lured into a two week bombing campaign and

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<v Speaker 2>that can damage and destroy Iran's territory further. But Iran

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<v Speaker 2>is willing to absorb those hits and absorb those costs

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<v Speaker 2>if it means that it can still retain its leverage

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<v Speaker 2>at the negotiating table. So I think the President should

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<v Speaker 2>be focusing on the diplomatic track, not just the military truck.

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<v Speaker 4>Right now, appears Iran is not talking directly with the US.

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<v Speaker 4>What can truly be accomplished without direct talks.

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<v Speaker 5>Well, let's go back to the MoU that was signed

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<v Speaker 5>back in June, and I don't have the exact language

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<v Speaker 5>in front of me, but it told Iran to work

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<v Speaker 5>with Oman to develop a mechanism for managing navigation in

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<v Speaker 5>the Strait that would be consistent with international law and

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<v Speaker 5>the sovereign rights.

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<v Speaker 3>Of the coastal states.

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<v Speaker 5>So the MoU does tell Iran to work through Aman

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<v Speaker 5>on this or work through this with Oman. I would

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<v Speaker 5>expect then as it becomes public, both regional allies will

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<v Speaker 5>have an opinion, and as I understand, they're generally favorable

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<v Speaker 5>of whatever it is that it says, and the US

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<v Speaker 5>will have an opinion as well. But at this point

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<v Speaker 5>I'm not shocked that Iran is working through the mechanism

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<v Speaker 5>with Oman. Solely, I think we need to see what

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<v Speaker 5>it says, what the provisions are that are within that agreement.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, meanwhile, there's threat going back and forth. Right now,

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<v Speaker 4>what do you believe Iran feels about this last chance threat?

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<v Speaker 5>So I think in some I'm not going to say,

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<v Speaker 5>they feel that they called the president's bluff, but the

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<v Speaker 5>President backed off. I think it for a variety of reasons,

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<v Speaker 5>one of them probably being that key allies in the Gulf,

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<v Speaker 5>particularly the Saudis, convinced him that it was time to

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<v Speaker 5>prioritize diplomatic efforts as opposed to additional military action. Even

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<v Speaker 5>though US Central Command has done a lot to destroy

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<v Speaker 5>Iranian naval capability.

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<v Speaker 3>They haven't eliminated.

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<v Speaker 5>The threat in the Strait of the hormones, nor can they,

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<v Speaker 5>and there's no indication that they've moved the needle on

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<v Speaker 5>Iran's strategic calculus, so you know, there might be some

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<v Speaker 5>question on the efficacy of those strikes. The other thing

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<v Speaker 5>I'd say is Iran's activities of the last two weeks

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<v Speaker 5>demonstrating that their range and ability to hold regional energy

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<v Speaker 5>infrastructure at risk goes far beyond the straight support moves,

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<v Speaker 5>whether it's the hu thies down at the Babble Mandeb,

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<v Speaker 5>attacks against ports in the Red Sea, or even as

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<v Speaker 5>far as Egypt.

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<v Speaker 3>I think our golf.

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<v Speaker 5>Allies convinced the President that this is not the time

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<v Speaker 5>to try a very large military campaign against Iran, and

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<v Speaker 5>then again to prioritize those diplomatic efforts.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay, we also have Secretary of Rubio who's saying US

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<v Speaker 4>was involved in the negotiations between Iran and Oman. On

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<v Speaker 4>the straight, Iran has set its goal and talks with

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<v Speaker 4>theman is to set temporary arrangements lasting one to three months,

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<v Speaker 4>where and here's the quote, where Iran is dominant.

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<v Speaker 3>Would the US agree.

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<v Speaker 4>To that do they have a vote or even a

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<v Speaker 4>choice at this point?

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<v Speaker 5>Those are great questions. I think, you know, we need

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<v Speaker 5>to see what it looks like. I think two things

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<v Speaker 5>that three things maybe that we'll look at.

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<v Speaker 3>One is what kind of fee structure, if any?

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<v Speaker 5>Is there is there some voluntary fee as the initial

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<v Speaker 5>reporting said, that would help pay for search and rescue,

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<v Speaker 5>for the cost of administering navigation, for environmental damage or.

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<v Speaker 3>Is it a flat out toll.

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<v Speaker 5>I think that's definitely something that not just the US

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<v Speaker 5>but the rest of the world would oppose. And then

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<v Speaker 5>what kind of coordination will occur between Iran and Oman

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<v Speaker 5>in terms of the channels.

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<v Speaker 3>That they manage.

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<v Speaker 5>Perhaps that's where Iran seeks to be dominant. And then third,

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<v Speaker 5>what will be done in terms of d mining and

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<v Speaker 5>making the channels safe for Iranian for commercial traffic?

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<v Speaker 3>Again in the strait of horror movees. Okay, we have

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<v Speaker 3>about a minute left.

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<v Speaker 4>Iran is threatening to strike the US navy as well

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<v Speaker 4>if this US blockade against Iranian ports continues. What is

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<v Speaker 4>their capacity to do that at this point?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, so, you know, they've definitely shown a capacity to

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<v Speaker 5>hit civilian vessels, and that's what has essentially kept the

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<v Speaker 5>straight closed. US naval assets have far more robust protections

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<v Speaker 5>I think in terms of their threat agrants. The US Navy,

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<v Speaker 5>perhaps Iranian thinking, is open for open. If we open

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<v Speaker 5>the straits, we expect you to reopen our ports and

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<v Speaker 5>that and hence a need to lift the blockade. So

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<v Speaker 5>that's another thing we'll need to watch