WEBVTT 1 00:00:00.080 --> 00:00:03.640 On one hand, it's about a type of mission that 2 00:00:03.759 --> 00:00:06.960 Jaysak has been training for since its inception, which is 3 00:00:07.040 --> 00:00:10.480 counter proliferation counter weapons of mass destruction. 4 00:00:11.759 --> 00:00:15.160 But it also zeros in specifically on the. 5 00:00:15.039 --> 00:00:20.839 Case of Iran and the plans and the training exercises 6 00:00:20.879 --> 00:00:25.600 that Jaysak has conducted to potentially go into Iran by 7 00:00:25.719 --> 00:00:30.239 force and remove the highly enriched uranium, and this is 8 00:00:30.559 --> 00:00:35.520 an operation that would be incredibly complex and incredibly dangerous. 9 00:00:35.960 --> 00:00:38.320 Some people in the command began referring to it as 10 00:00:38.399 --> 00:00:41.560 Eagle Claw two point zero, which is a reference to 11 00:00:41.640 --> 00:00:45.640 Operation Eagle Claw in nineteen eighty in which Delta Force 12 00:00:46.079 --> 00:00:48.880 and the Rangers went to rescue hostages that were being 13 00:00:48.960 --> 00:00:52.479 held in Tehran. The whole thing ended in a fiasco 14 00:00:52.640 --> 00:00:56.119 at a desert stage in ground called Desert One, where 15 00:00:56.200 --> 00:01:00.439 a helicopter and aircraft were blown up. Other helicops were 16 00:01:00.439 --> 00:01:01.960 disabled by a sandstorm. 17 00:01:02.200 --> 00:01:05.840 The operation fell apart for a variety of different reasons. 18 00:01:05.879 --> 00:01:08.280 A lot of them were technical and mechanical, not because 19 00:01:08.439 --> 00:01:10.920 the guys didn't have the balls to do it. They 20 00:01:10.959 --> 00:01:11.640 certainly did. 21 00:01:18.400 --> 00:01:21.719 Hey, everybody, Welcome to a new episode special episode of 22 00:01:21.799 --> 00:01:28.879 Eyes on Jill Politics. I'm joined with Jack Murphy, investigative journalist, podcaster, 23 00:01:30.920 --> 00:01:34.400 forty three year old. Happy birthday, Jack Jacksonday birthday. Today, 24 00:01:35.439 --> 00:01:37.879 you guys have a new article you and Sean Naylor 25 00:01:37.920 --> 00:01:42.640 on the High Side about basically detailing the entire raid 26 00:01:43.200 --> 00:01:47.079 that's been planned since the beginning of the war to 27 00:01:47.159 --> 00:01:49.920 go in and grab the highly enriched geranium out of 28 00:01:49.959 --> 00:01:54.239 a I guess if you once you dig into the article, 29 00:01:54.239 --> 00:01:56.959 it's two sites that they were really planning on hitting, 30 00:01:58.159 --> 00:02:01.959 but there's there's Intelli just suggesting maybe there it's at 31 00:02:01.959 --> 00:02:08.560 three sites, so obviously an incredibly complicated uh mission. Yeah, 32 00:02:08.599 --> 00:02:10.800 the article's great. Check it out at the high Side, 33 00:02:10.840 --> 00:02:13.520 The high Side. That link is down in the description. Uh, 34 00:02:13.599 --> 00:02:17.400 it's stuff that no other journalists I feel like get 35 00:02:17.520 --> 00:02:20.520 so really good shit. I'm sure that people are freaking 36 00:02:20.560 --> 00:02:24.360 out down and down in Where's Jaysuck based out of 37 00:02:24.360 --> 00:02:29.800 Tampa Brag. I'm sure they're not happy there today because 38 00:02:29.840 --> 00:02:31.919 you go into some good detail, like you name the 39 00:02:31.919 --> 00:02:34.479 squadrons and everything, but like, just give me the whole 40 00:02:35.240 --> 00:02:37.719 give us like the you know, quick pitch on what 41 00:02:37.840 --> 00:02:38.759 the article is about. 42 00:02:39.000 --> 00:02:43.360 Yeah, so the story is called Iran WMD rate inside 43 00:02:43.439 --> 00:02:48.199 Jaysock's most challenging mission yet. I wrote it with my 44 00:02:48.319 --> 00:02:51.960 colleague Sean Naylor at the high Side. Shawn's on vacation, 45 00:02:52.199 --> 00:02:55.199 so he's not here today, so I'm the best of yet. 46 00:02:55.280 --> 00:02:57.319 Sorry, guys, Sean's working on his tan. 47 00:02:57.840 --> 00:02:58.639 Yeah, I hope so. 48 00:02:59.680 --> 00:03:05.199 I And so the story is about On one hand, 49 00:03:05.240 --> 00:03:09.080 it's about a type of mission that JAYSAK has been 50 00:03:09.120 --> 00:03:13.719 training for since its inception, which is counter proliferation counter 51 00:03:13.759 --> 00:03:15.000 weapons of mass destruction. 52 00:03:16.280 --> 00:03:20.120 But it also zeros in specifically on the case of. 53 00:03:20.280 --> 00:03:26.039 Iran, and the plans and the training exercises that JAYSAK 54 00:03:26.080 --> 00:03:31.000 has conducted to potentially go into Iran by force and 55 00:03:31.199 --> 00:03:36.360 remove the highly enriched uranium, and this is an operation 56 00:03:36.560 --> 00:03:41.439 that would be incredibly complex and incredibly dangerous. Some people 57 00:03:41.439 --> 00:03:43.919 in the command began referring to it as Eagle Claw 58 00:03:44.000 --> 00:03:47.479 two point zero, which is a reference to Operation Eagle 59 00:03:47.560 --> 00:03:51.240 Claw in nineteen eighty in which Delta Force and the 60 00:03:51.319 --> 00:03:54.639 Rangers went to rescue hostages that were being held in Tehran. 61 00:03:55.360 --> 00:03:58.280 The whole thing ended in a fiasco at a desert 62 00:03:58.520 --> 00:04:02.439 stage in ground called Desert One, where a helicopter and 63 00:04:02.800 --> 00:04:06.759 aircraft were blown up. Other helicopters were disabled by a sandstorm. 64 00:04:07.159 --> 00:04:10.840 The operation fell apart for a variety of different reasons. 65 00:04:10.840 --> 00:04:13.240 A lot of them were technical and mechanical, not because 66 00:04:13.439 --> 00:04:15.879 the guys didn't have the balls to do it. They 67 00:04:15.919 --> 00:04:20.680 certainly did, but you ran into these insurmountable problems. And 68 00:04:20.759 --> 00:04:24.199 I think this operation, you know, I had a Delta 69 00:04:24.199 --> 00:04:26.279 Force veteran one time. Tell me he's like, you know, 70 00:04:27.040 --> 00:04:31.000 Operation Eagle Claw was so complex that even today, with 71 00:04:31.040 --> 00:04:34.160 all the fancy helicopters we have and great technology, we 72 00:04:34.319 --> 00:04:37.720 probably still couldn't pull something like that off. And I 73 00:04:37.759 --> 00:04:41.000 think that was a thought process that went, you know, 74 00:04:41.040 --> 00:04:44.480 it kind of carried forward into this operation. And again 75 00:04:44.519 --> 00:04:48.079 the guys, you know, the commands were certainly very eager 76 00:04:48.160 --> 00:04:50.720 to get in and do this mission. But there's also 77 00:04:50.800 --> 00:04:55.560 some trepidation in some corners about what the likely prospects 78 00:04:55.600 --> 00:04:59.720 are once the operators get on the ground. What I 79 00:04:59.759 --> 00:05:03.160 mean that is the movement into I ran into a 80 00:05:03.199 --> 00:05:07.279 denied area is difficult. You have to get there, You 81 00:05:07.319 --> 00:05:09.519 have to establish some sort of a stage and ground. 82 00:05:10.199 --> 00:05:15.399 This operation would require an improvised landing strip if nothing else. 83 00:05:16.120 --> 00:05:19.279 You'd have to land aircrafts. For two reasons, The first 84 00:05:19.519 --> 00:05:22.879 is that you would have to land all kinds of 85 00:05:22.920 --> 00:05:26.639 engineering equipment and bulldozers and excavators and stuff like that, 86 00:05:27.560 --> 00:05:30.879 because the tunnels that lead into these underground facilities have 87 00:05:30.959 --> 00:05:34.879 been collapsed and destroyed. Largely they were destroyed by Operation 88 00:05:35.000 --> 00:05:38.279 Midnight Hammer a few months prior to all of this 89 00:05:38.480 --> 00:05:41.360 kicking off, where we went in and bombed these sites, 90 00:05:42.360 --> 00:05:44.399 but there are also reports that the Iranians went in 91 00:05:44.439 --> 00:05:47.480 themselves and collapsed and booby trapped some of the tunnels. 92 00:05:48.319 --> 00:05:53.000 So you have to move in heavy excavating equipment. That's 93 00:05:53.040 --> 00:05:55.639 not a jastock mission per se. That's more of a 94 00:05:55.720 --> 00:05:59.680 just a conventional army or a Navy operation where you 95 00:05:59.720 --> 00:06:01.040 haven't bring these guys in. 96 00:06:00.959 --> 00:06:03.160 So it's not just like one hundred operators going in 97 00:06:03.279 --> 00:06:04.920 doing the thing getting out correct. 98 00:06:05.000 --> 00:06:07.199 It's not the bin laden raid where like fifteen guys 99 00:06:07.240 --> 00:06:09.160 are going to go in there and like save America 100 00:06:09.199 --> 00:06:12.720 and kick some ass. Right. This would require probably in 101 00:06:12.720 --> 00:06:15.480 the neighborhood of a thousand of fifteen hundred boots on 102 00:06:15.519 --> 00:06:19.639 the ground. You would have rangers doing an outer court 103 00:06:19.720 --> 00:06:22.319 on and then you would have in this case it 104 00:06:22.439 --> 00:06:25.439 was a development group Sealed Team six had the lead 105 00:06:25.480 --> 00:06:28.480 on this one. They would be the assault squadron that 106 00:06:28.560 --> 00:06:31.720 goes in and if there's of course a security element, 107 00:06:31.759 --> 00:06:36.399 they're going to be eliminated by the operators. And then 108 00:06:36.560 --> 00:06:39.439 at some point the excavating excavating is going to have 109 00:06:39.480 --> 00:06:41.879 to take place that we talked about, and then there's 110 00:06:41.920 --> 00:06:45.120 an unit called the twenty first EOD Company, which would 111 00:06:45.120 --> 00:06:47.360 go in and actually secure the device. They're the ones 112 00:06:47.399 --> 00:06:51.839 that have the actual WMD training to do that, and 113 00:06:51.879 --> 00:06:54.079 then it becomes the whole process of getting it out 114 00:06:54.120 --> 00:06:56.240 of there. We're told it's something in the neighborhood, like 115 00:06:56.279 --> 00:06:59.319 three hundred to four hundred kilograms of highly enriched uranium 116 00:06:59.360 --> 00:07:02.600 that would need to be moved. There's a separate, yet 117 00:07:02.639 --> 00:07:06.360 another element that would handle that, called the Technical Escort Unit, 118 00:07:07.319 --> 00:07:11.439 and they are the guys that manage and move nuclear 119 00:07:11.480 --> 00:07:16.000 materials physsile materials from point A to point B. They're 120 00:07:16.000 --> 00:07:19.639 part of the US military. They didn't They've done operations 121 00:07:19.639 --> 00:07:23.759 in the past. For instance, they removed highly enriched uranium 122 00:07:23.759 --> 00:07:27.600 from Kazakhstan in the nineteen nineties, and even this one, 123 00:07:27.759 --> 00:07:30.920 this flew under the radar, but I mean, the US 124 00:07:31.000 --> 00:07:34.839 government reported this themselves in a press release. Just in 125 00:07:34.879 --> 00:07:37.360 the like maybe a month and a half ago, we 126 00:07:37.480 --> 00:07:41.959 removed highly enriched uranium from venezuela from a student like 127 00:07:42.079 --> 00:07:45.639 a academic student reactor or something like that that they 128 00:07:45.680 --> 00:07:48.360 had there. And again that would be the technical escort 129 00:07:48.519 --> 00:07:51.519 unit that would manage that and the Venezuela thing that's 130 00:07:51.560 --> 00:07:55.639 done in the Kazakhstan mission that I mentioned. These previous operations, 131 00:07:56.160 --> 00:07:58.480 they were done in cooperation with the local. 132 00:07:58.199 --> 00:08:02.160 Government, right yeah, environment, yeah, right, right, We're going to 133 00:08:02.240 --> 00:08:04.439 go in, We're going to take this dangerous material off 134 00:08:04.480 --> 00:08:07.240 of your hands, and in return, you know, you're going 135 00:08:07.319 --> 00:08:10.519 to get favorable economic deals or whatever whatever the case is. 136 00:08:10.600 --> 00:08:14.319 Right, Yeah, this would be by force. Now, the whole 137 00:08:14.319 --> 00:08:17.279 scheme of the operation that I just laid out, the 138 00:08:17.319 --> 00:08:20.680 technical escort unit brings the uranium out. It has to 139 00:08:20.720 --> 00:08:22.959 be flown out on fixed wing because of the static 140 00:08:22.959 --> 00:08:27.279 electricity created by rotor blades. That's a whole other thing. Now, 141 00:08:27.519 --> 00:08:30.800 everything I'm describing in this Iran mission would also be 142 00:08:31.000 --> 00:08:36.720 conducted in a CBRN environment you know, chemical, radiological, biological, 143 00:08:37.000 --> 00:08:41.480 and nuclear, and that would require wearing protective suits, you know, 144 00:08:41.559 --> 00:08:47.720 the protective masks the whole nine yards and while you're 145 00:08:47.720 --> 00:08:52.480 doing that, you're having to assault, excavate, secure, you know, 146 00:08:52.600 --> 00:08:56.120 render safe all sorts of different devices. 147 00:08:55.759 --> 00:09:00.120 And hold off the Iranian military from coming in be know, 148 00:09:00.320 --> 00:09:02.000 basically attacking you the whole day. 149 00:09:01.919 --> 00:09:04.799 While they're lobbing drones and ballistic missiles at you and 150 00:09:04.840 --> 00:09:08.960 all kinds of fun stuff. Right, So it's an incredibly 151 00:09:09.000 --> 00:09:14.759 complicated mission. It's Jaysak has trained extensively for this type 152 00:09:14.759 --> 00:09:18.639 of mission. However, as far as I've been able to ascertain, 153 00:09:18.720 --> 00:09:21.480 they never really trained for an operation where they first 154 00:09:21.559 --> 00:09:23.879 had to do the excavating of the site, where they 155 00:09:23.919 --> 00:09:26.440 had to like dig it up. There are some past 156 00:09:26.480 --> 00:09:31.200 examples where this was looked if something similar was looked 157 00:09:31.200 --> 00:09:34.240 into in the nineteen nineties, there's the Tarhuna facility in 158 00:09:34.279 --> 00:09:39.960 Libya where Gadaffi was running a underground chemical weapons facility, 159 00:09:40.879 --> 00:09:43.639 and this is really interesting. The plan to go and 160 00:09:43.679 --> 00:09:47.200 deal with that was for the Delta Force guys to 161 00:09:47.360 --> 00:09:52.120 goad vehicles onto these huge Marine corps hovercraft, drive them, 162 00:09:52.320 --> 00:09:56.279 you know, through the sea the Mediterranean up onto the beaches, 163 00:09:56.320 --> 00:09:58.879 and then go as far inland as they can stop, 164 00:09:59.360 --> 00:10:03.039 drop ramp, unload the vehicles. Then the vehicles drive to 165 00:10:03.120 --> 00:10:06.320 the facility and they would be taking with them, towing 166 00:10:06.320 --> 00:10:10.919 with them industrial mining equipment, industrial drills, you know these 167 00:10:10.960 --> 00:10:13.200 things that would you know, go vertical and you drill 168 00:10:13.279 --> 00:10:16.440 down into the earth. And what they were going to 169 00:10:16.480 --> 00:10:18.519 do was go on the top of the facility, drill 170 00:10:18.600 --> 00:10:21.240 down into it, and then using a cement mixer truck, 171 00:10:21.279 --> 00:10:25.159 they would pour an explosive slurry down the hole into 172 00:10:25.240 --> 00:10:29.840 the facility and detonate it and destroy the facility. But 173 00:10:30.039 --> 00:10:34.519 there's also again there's complications there. They carried out feasibility 174 00:10:34.679 --> 00:10:37.679 studies at the Nevada test site on this drilling into 175 00:10:37.720 --> 00:10:40.720 bedrock to see how fast it can be done, and 176 00:10:40.759 --> 00:10:43.840 even with the best equipment and the best professionals doing it, 177 00:10:43.840 --> 00:10:47.159 it could take weeks. Yeah, so all of these things 178 00:10:47.159 --> 00:10:49.879 are much more complicated, and you just run into these 179 00:10:49.879 --> 00:10:54.799 sort of insurmountable problems. But I think one of the 180 00:10:54.799 --> 00:10:59.320 other things that this article explores a little bit is 181 00:10:59.440 --> 00:11:02.679 that there are limitations on what small teams of special 182 00:11:02.720 --> 00:11:10.080 operators can realistically accomplish. You just run into these problems 183 00:11:10.120 --> 00:11:14.039 where you know, there's only so much that they can do, right. 184 00:11:13.919 --> 00:11:17.519 I mean, yeah, they basically how it read was essentially 185 00:11:17.600 --> 00:11:21.559 like you know, Silver Squadron ragor Battalion and maybe some 186 00:11:21.639 --> 00:11:24.120 elements from eighty second Airborne or whatever would shoot their 187 00:11:24.159 --> 00:11:28.000 way in to get to Isfahan and either four dour 188 00:11:28.120 --> 00:11:30.440 natons I don't know which, I know Isfahan was probably 189 00:11:30.440 --> 00:11:34.399 the main one, and then set up a perimeter, a 190 00:11:34.440 --> 00:11:37.759 security perimeter for weeks at a time so they could 191 00:11:37.799 --> 00:11:42.679 have a construction project going on. Right, Like that sounds insane, 192 00:11:42.759 --> 00:11:45.320 right because we al know that, like or at least 193 00:11:45.320 --> 00:11:48.279 we think that, like you know, Jaysack and special operations 194 00:11:48.279 --> 00:11:52.679 in general is usually used outside of like Iraq in 195 00:11:52.679 --> 00:11:55.120 Afghanistan where it was more long term, but like they're 196 00:11:55.200 --> 00:11:59.080 used for quick hits, like that's their whole, that's their 197 00:11:59.240 --> 00:12:01.919 bread and butter, that's where they make their money essentially, 198 00:12:01.960 --> 00:12:04.080 and then to send in a bunch of like the 199 00:12:04.120 --> 00:12:08.440 twenty first EOD guys and equit me. It's literally like 200 00:12:08.519 --> 00:12:12.200 set shooting everybody up, setting up a construction site for 201 00:12:12.240 --> 00:12:15.759 like a month probably yeah, and hopefully fingers crossed, we 202 00:12:15.799 --> 00:12:19.559 could get all the stuff out and bring it to Washington, right, 203 00:12:19.720 --> 00:12:21.919 is like the lab where they could do like the 204 00:12:22.600 --> 00:12:24.799 you know, the investigation on where it's from and all 205 00:12:24.840 --> 00:12:27.399 that stuff and just you know, securely retain it. 206 00:12:28.679 --> 00:12:32.000 Yeah. That's another aspect of this operation that has changed 207 00:12:32.039 --> 00:12:35.080 over the decades is that in the beginning, in the 208 00:12:35.159 --> 00:12:40.639 early years, the idea was interception or sabotage destruction, that 209 00:12:40.679 --> 00:12:42.720 you would go in and destroy the facilities, like we 210 00:12:42.840 --> 00:12:45.720 talked to Mountain Libya. What it evolved into over the 211 00:12:45.799 --> 00:12:49.799 years was that Jaysok would actually go in secure the 212 00:12:49.799 --> 00:12:54.440 physile material, secure the warhead, whatever it was, and actually 213 00:12:54.519 --> 00:12:56.480 take it out with them. 214 00:12:56.840 --> 00:12:57.159 Uh. 215 00:12:57.200 --> 00:12:59.679 And from what I can tell this is this would 216 00:12:59.679 --> 00:13:01.200 be done for a couple of reasons. 217 00:13:02.000 --> 00:13:03.840 You know, if it's uh, you. 218 00:13:03.759 --> 00:13:06.879 Know, a Russian nuclear warhead or something like this, we 219 00:13:06.919 --> 00:13:10.279 would want to obviously study that and reverse engineer it. 220 00:13:10.279 --> 00:13:13.240 In detail, you know, see where they got their stuff from, right, 221 00:13:13.320 --> 00:13:14.039 obviously like. 222 00:13:14.039 --> 00:13:16.279 To see how we can defeat that kind of technology. 223 00:13:16.279 --> 00:13:19.279 But also yes, if you know, if we went into 224 00:13:19.320 --> 00:13:22.519 Iran and we secured physile materials, we would want to 225 00:13:22.559 --> 00:13:25.080 study those materials in the lab here in the United 226 00:13:25.120 --> 00:13:29.080 States and determine if another country gave that to them. 227 00:13:29.240 --> 00:13:31.120 You know, and again I do not know this for 228 00:13:31.159 --> 00:13:31.519 a fact. 229 00:13:31.639 --> 00:13:34.600 I'm just saying, you know, theoretically, if like Russia or 230 00:13:34.679 --> 00:13:38.000 China were to give them physile material, if like something 231 00:13:38.039 --> 00:13:41.159 like the aq con network were to like render that 232 00:13:41.159 --> 00:13:43.200 that sort of material to them, that's. 233 00:13:43.320 --> 00:13:46.000 Yeah, there's a really interesting quote that you just posted 234 00:13:46.120 --> 00:13:48.879 when you reposted the article just now. I don't think 235 00:13:48.919 --> 00:13:51.799 this is an operation. I don't think this operation has 236 00:13:51.840 --> 00:13:54.559 been done before, even in a training environment, said the 237 00:13:54.600 --> 00:13:57.840 former defense contractor, adding that if the facility itself was 238 00:13:57.879 --> 00:14:01.720 buried in rubble jaysock would probably just completely destroy what 239 00:14:01.799 --> 00:14:04.879 remained with explosives rather than try and dig out the 240 00:14:04.919 --> 00:14:09.600 fissile material. That sounds insane too, Like, how is that 241 00:14:09.960 --> 00:14:11.879 you know it's already covered up, It's already for the 242 00:14:11.919 --> 00:14:16.799 most part buried anyway. Also in the article, you also 243 00:14:16.960 --> 00:14:20.600 mentioned about like the worry about even taking a couple 244 00:14:20.639 --> 00:14:24.480 of kilograms of enrich uranium and making a dirty bomb. 245 00:14:25.240 --> 00:14:29.080 Wouldn't that also, like, you know, there's probably environmental factors 246 00:14:29.120 --> 00:14:32.320 to be thinking about if you're blowing up fissile material 247 00:14:32.360 --> 00:14:34.080 in place, right. I mean, sure it's on the ground, 248 00:14:34.159 --> 00:14:36.919 so maybe it'll be a little bit less impact, you know, 249 00:14:37.000 --> 00:14:40.320 impact the environment, but still there's dangers there. 250 00:14:40.240 --> 00:14:42.039 If that course of action was taken. 251 00:14:42.080 --> 00:14:44.600 I think the idea would be that you'd fully collapse 252 00:14:44.639 --> 00:14:48.039 what remained of the tunnels and just entomb the material inside, 253 00:14:49.000 --> 00:14:51.720 which arguably is more of a delaying measure. It's not 254 00:14:51.759 --> 00:14:55.320 really a final resolution to the problem. The problem being 255 00:14:55.399 --> 00:14:59.320 that you can't really just leave highly enriched uranium under 256 00:14:59.360 --> 00:15:03.639 the deserts of Iran forever, because if some idiot were 257 00:15:03.720 --> 00:15:05.840 to go and dig that up, doesn't have to be 258 00:15:05.879 --> 00:15:09.600 the Iranian government. I mean, say some terrorist organization even 259 00:15:10.080 --> 00:15:13.000 went and digs that up and just a few milligrams 260 00:15:13.039 --> 00:15:15.559 of it could cause a serious issue. Like you said, 261 00:15:15.559 --> 00:15:18.120 if you blew up a dirty bomb, you know in 262 00:15:18.480 --> 00:15:21.600 you know, Eastern Europe or Western Europe or wherever, you know, 263 00:15:21.639 --> 00:15:24.799 you could cause a huge disaster. So you can't really 264 00:15:24.879 --> 00:15:28.240 just leave the material out there. Someone has to secure it. Now, 265 00:15:28.320 --> 00:15:30.799 maybe we reach a deal with the Iranians and they 266 00:15:30.840 --> 00:15:32.960 secure it. I know at one point there's even talk 267 00:15:33.039 --> 00:15:35.200 with the Chinese government that they might go in and 268 00:15:35.240 --> 00:15:38.000 secure it, or we could reach a deal with the 269 00:15:38.039 --> 00:15:41.919 Iranians where our forces go in there peacefully and secure it, 270 00:15:42.000 --> 00:15:46.159 like we did in Kazakhstan years ago. Yeah, but you 271 00:15:46.200 --> 00:15:48.519 can't really just leave the material out there under the 272 00:15:48.519 --> 00:15:52.960 desert forever. But for the time being, it seems like 273 00:15:53.240 --> 00:15:55.600 that's kind of what's going to happen at least for 274 00:15:55.639 --> 00:15:59.559 the foreseeable future, that we're going to monitor these sites 275 00:16:00.080 --> 00:16:04.559 with satellites and if anyone started moving excavating equipment in there, 276 00:16:04.600 --> 00:16:06.519 we would be able to detect that and pick it 277 00:16:06.600 --> 00:16:12.639 up pretty quickly. Because, you know, the Chairman of the 278 00:16:12.720 --> 00:16:17.320 Joint Chiefs, Dan Cain, got briefed up on this and 279 00:16:17.360 --> 00:16:21.240 he went and briefed President Trump, and the President decided 280 00:16:21.279 --> 00:16:24.759 not to greenlight this operation, largely for the reasons that 281 00:16:24.759 --> 00:16:28.200 we've been talking about that it's high risk, there could 282 00:16:28.360 --> 00:16:32.759 be quite a few American casualties. And there are some 283 00:16:32.799 --> 00:16:36.039 other things to some opsect things that I think some 284 00:16:36.080 --> 00:16:39.799 people in the community are glad we're not going to 285 00:16:39.879 --> 00:16:43.000 have to use. There are things that relate to like 286 00:16:43.120 --> 00:16:47.879 electronic intelligence and things like this. Basically capabilities we would 287 00:16:47.960 --> 00:16:50.360 use that we would only be able to use once 288 00:16:50.480 --> 00:16:54.919 because our adversaries would afterwards understood what understand what we did, 289 00:16:55.000 --> 00:16:58.399 and they would adapt. So there are kind of high 290 00:16:58.480 --> 00:17:01.879 end capabilities are considered to be like one and done's 291 00:17:02.039 --> 00:17:03.799 you know, you're only going to get one shot at it, 292 00:17:05.160 --> 00:17:08.559 and so I think perhaps this is the administration coming 293 00:17:08.599 --> 00:17:12.200 to terms with what we were discussing that there's limitations 294 00:17:12.200 --> 00:17:15.319 on what you can accomplish, that Jaysak isn't just the 295 00:17:15.400 --> 00:17:19.559 easy button you can press to resolve tricky foreign policy issues. 296 00:17:20.680 --> 00:17:24.079 Throughout President Trump's two administrations, there have been a number 297 00:17:24.200 --> 00:17:28.000 of you know, lightning fast operations that were highly successful, 298 00:17:28.920 --> 00:17:33.440 the killing of al Baghdadi and Syria, the killing of 299 00:17:33.599 --> 00:17:38.480 cost Some Solimani in Iraq, then more recently the Maduro 300 00:17:38.599 --> 00:17:42.440 capture in Venezuela, and then even Operation Midnight Hammer was 301 00:17:42.519 --> 00:17:45.920 kind of you know, quick airstrikes. There wasn't really any 302 00:17:46.319 --> 00:17:50.839 downside for the United States per se. But with this 303 00:17:50.920 --> 00:17:54.359 particular operation, now you're coming up against that wall where 304 00:17:54.359 --> 00:17:55.839 it's like, okay, we're not going to be able to 305 00:17:55.880 --> 00:17:58.960 just helicopter, you know, twenty five operators in to kick 306 00:17:59.000 --> 00:18:00.920 some ass and come home. Like it's it's a little 307 00:18:00.920 --> 00:18:02.200 bit more complicated than that. 308 00:18:02.920 --> 00:18:04.240 I mean, you kind of see it a little bit. 309 00:18:04.319 --> 00:18:06.799 What happened with the F fifteen pilot that got the 310 00:18:06.880 --> 00:18:08.680 F fifteen that got shot down in the wizzow that 311 00:18:08.799 --> 00:18:11.400 was out there for I can't even remember what it 312 00:18:11.440 --> 00:18:13.400 was like almost a week, right he was out there 313 00:18:13.920 --> 00:18:16.640 and no, just like I'm sorry, yeah, two days. But 314 00:18:16.759 --> 00:18:22.039 like the operation that Jaysack went under, you undertook essentially, 315 00:18:22.240 --> 00:18:24.240 you know, it was not easy. It didn't seem you 316 00:18:24.440 --> 00:18:27.559 lost a lot of assets. Thankfully no one died on 317 00:18:27.599 --> 00:18:32.319 our side, but still, like think about that, do you 318 00:18:32.359 --> 00:18:34.160 know essentially doing the same thing, right, they wanted to 319 00:18:34.240 --> 00:18:36.440 land fixed wing airplanes, they did it got stuck. They 320 00:18:36.440 --> 00:18:39.720 got stuck in the sand essentially, so they had to improvise. 321 00:18:40.880 --> 00:18:44.119 Uh So, just thinking about the scale and the scope 322 00:18:44.160 --> 00:18:49.440 of what this would entail, it sounds crazy. It sounds 323 00:18:49.440 --> 00:18:52.319 like it's it also like kind of mirrors or parallels, 324 00:18:52.359 --> 00:18:54.720 Like everyone was talking about car Island and stuff like that, 325 00:18:54.759 --> 00:18:57.519 Like taking carg Island. It's like, okay, yeah, we'll send 326 00:18:57.559 --> 00:19:01.039 like five hundred one thousand marines in there, secure the island, 327 00:19:01.119 --> 00:19:03.759 take it. But then they're literally getting pounded until for 328 00:19:03.839 --> 00:19:04.720 what until when? 329 00:19:05.079 --> 00:19:05.160 Right? 330 00:19:06.160 --> 00:19:11.279 Yeah? I also did like the sub little subplot drama 331 00:19:11.519 --> 00:19:14.880 in terms of like the JSOCK officers and stuff like that, 332 00:19:14.880 --> 00:19:16.640 who were like, yeah, no, we could totally do this, 333 00:19:16.880 --> 00:19:19.559 like this would easy, you know, And I also like, 334 00:19:19.599 --> 00:19:21.839 I want you to talk a little bit about the uh, 335 00:19:22.839 --> 00:19:26.920 the friction between like Jysock and sent Coom specifically. 336 00:19:28.319 --> 00:19:31.559 Yeah, the issue was that, Yes, I mean the the 337 00:19:31.680 --> 00:19:35.400 JSOK headshed sounds by all accounts pretty eager to go 338 00:19:35.440 --> 00:19:37.839 ahead and do this. They wanted to get on with 339 00:19:37.880 --> 00:19:40.839 the mission and get it done. H They've been kind 340 00:19:40.839 --> 00:19:43.880 of on standby for this mission for about three months, 341 00:19:44.119 --> 00:19:47.720 which is kind of unusual to have Jasock ford deployed. 342 00:19:47.279 --> 00:19:48.599 For such a long period of time. 343 00:19:49.119 --> 00:19:51.079 I think they had to issue a bunch of waivers 344 00:19:51.160 --> 00:19:52.960 just to keep them forward deployed that long. 345 00:19:56.920 --> 00:20:02.160 The question Jack starta there is because like the Jaysak 346 00:20:02.240 --> 00:20:05.039 guys are supposed to like continue to rotate into like 347 00:20:05.119 --> 00:20:08.039 the hot like you know, into another job. You know, 348 00:20:08.240 --> 00:20:08.720 like is that it? 349 00:20:09.039 --> 00:20:11.720 Yeah, they have to maintain a high state of readiness 350 00:20:11.880 --> 00:20:14.279 and you can't. You have to rotate the guys on 351 00:20:14.359 --> 00:20:16.960 and off that high state of readiness so that they 352 00:20:17.000 --> 00:20:19.200 can do their training, they can go on leave, their 353 00:20:19.200 --> 00:20:22.880 professional development, et cetera. So there's this rotation schedule with 354 00:20:22.920 --> 00:20:27.839 the different squadrons and the different ranger battalions. You know, 355 00:20:27.920 --> 00:20:30.480 as we talked about, you know, Jaysak is kind of 356 00:20:30.720 --> 00:20:35.519 tailor designed for highly precise surgical operations that happen, uh, 357 00:20:35.680 --> 00:20:38.680 you know, during a period of darkness. They're not designed 358 00:20:38.680 --> 00:20:42.279 for like long duration operations. That's more of like a 359 00:20:42.640 --> 00:20:46.160 special forces mission, a conventional military mission. 360 00:20:46.880 --> 00:20:48.720 Even rangers, you know, bring. 361 00:20:48.559 --> 00:20:50.519 A lot more assets to the table for like a 362 00:20:50.559 --> 00:20:56.319 long duration mission. But so yeah, Jaysock was eager to 363 00:20:56.319 --> 00:20:59.960 get on with it, but Sentcom wanted to that is, 364 00:21:00.079 --> 00:21:03.599 Central Command, the overall combatant command over the Middle East, 365 00:21:04.519 --> 00:21:08.640 was more interested in prioritizing other targets. There's also a 366 00:21:08.680 --> 00:21:10.960 thought that all kinds of triggers would need to be 367 00:21:11.079 --> 00:21:14.279 met in the lead up to executing this operation, that 368 00:21:14.319 --> 00:21:17.799 we had to do more things to eliminate Iranian air 369 00:21:17.839 --> 00:21:22.079 defense and their various military capabilities before we even attempted 370 00:21:22.079 --> 00:21:26.480 this mission. So, just as an example, JAYSAK had two 371 00:21:26.519 --> 00:21:30.319 Reaper drones circling objectives that they wanted to hit that 372 00:21:30.359 --> 00:21:33.480 they were interested in in Iran and they wanted like 373 00:21:33.519 --> 00:21:36.119 that kind of like persistent twenty four hour eye in 374 00:21:36.160 --> 00:21:38.920 the sky over those targets. And two of those drones 375 00:21:38.960 --> 00:21:41.440 got shot down by the Iranians. And I'm not sure 376 00:21:41.480 --> 00:21:43.799 the precise number. I think since the war started, we've 377 00:21:43.839 --> 00:21:47.759 lost like fifteen reapers or something like that. So this 378 00:21:47.920 --> 00:21:49.559 is this is a different kind of war. This is 379 00:21:49.599 --> 00:21:55.799 not Afghanistan or Iraq, where we had uncontested airspace, and 380 00:21:55.880 --> 00:21:58.160 so this is kind of like where the friction kind 381 00:21:58.160 --> 00:22:01.039 of developed, I think a little bit between common Jaysock 382 00:22:01.680 --> 00:22:05.319 and uh. But now we're at this point where it 383 00:22:05.359 --> 00:22:08.279 seems increasingly clear this operation simply isn't going to be 384 00:22:08.319 --> 00:22:12.160 executed and it's simply on standby as like a deterrent 385 00:22:12.279 --> 00:22:14.240 to like rid your finger at a ram, Like, hey, 386 00:22:14.240 --> 00:22:15.359 you better cut a deal with that. 387 00:22:15.440 --> 00:22:16.200 We're ready to go. 388 00:22:16.440 --> 00:22:20.960 Like, yeah, because I've been told that the forward deployed 389 00:22:21.359 --> 00:22:25.480 Jaysak guys and their attachments and abors and so forth 390 00:22:25.799 --> 00:22:28.519 are already starting to trickle back to the United States 391 00:22:29.119 --> 00:22:33.119 because this forward deployment was impacting mission readiness for so long. 392 00:22:33.680 --> 00:22:37.319 Yeah, well, like, I mean, I guess it hasn't changed much, right, 393 00:22:37.319 --> 00:22:42.200 But even during Afghanistan, in Iraq, like and Syria, you know, 394 00:22:42.319 --> 00:22:46.920 Jaysock and Ranger Battalion deployments were usually like three months 395 00:22:46.960 --> 00:22:49.920 give or take maybe four, So we're like coming up 396 00:22:49.920 --> 00:22:52.200 to that. So it's understandable why, like, you know, they 397 00:22:52.240 --> 00:22:54.680 want to bring people back and maybe rotate them out. 398 00:22:55.319 --> 00:22:57.640 Yeah, some guys were afraid that this whole thing was 399 00:22:57.680 --> 00:23:00.319 going to turn into like their delay. I meant to 400 00:23:00.400 --> 00:23:04.599 Cyprus after Gaza happened, and they spent and I think 401 00:23:04.599 --> 00:23:05.480