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Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for total bases.

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It's Monday, we kick off a new week. We are

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we've hit the home stretch boys two weeks left of

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the regular season. And Brian, if I gotta say this,

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if the chat has listened to you and just straight

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up that your theory of if you need to win

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at this point, you weren't that great of a team

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in the first place. You're probably printing money right now,

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especially in the National League, because every team that has

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needed to win per se has lost for the fat

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past week or so. I'm talking about teams like the Mets,

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right And maybe that's not even the best example, but

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the teams I think the better example is these teams

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chasing the Mets. The Reds went to West Sacramento got

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swept this weekend. You know, the Giants that was sitting

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right there for them at home. They lost back to

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back games to close out the week. It's been kind

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of incredible to watch. The Mets did finally win yesterday,

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but they've let everyone back into the race, which is

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great for us. I guess as fans, we now have

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a wild card race in the National League. That's where

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I want to start Today, the Arizona Diamondbacks are two

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games out of a playoff spot. Two games are seventy

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five and seventy five, six and four in their last

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ten games. They won both of their weekend games to

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now draw to just two back of the Mets. Brian,

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I've said this whole time, they have a postseason caliber lineup,

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they just haven't had the pitching. So d Backs, Giants

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essentially playoff baseball. Where are you going with this one tonight?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, last two weeks of baseball. Most teams have twelve

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games left, and you mentioned the Diamondbacks are about a

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five percent chance to make the playoffs. Now, the Reds

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about a five percent, Giants about a ten percent. Even

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as well as Cleveland's playing, they've only got eleven percent.

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So the Mets. I only got the win yesterday, and

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I think it was to me because I had a

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small play against them, and I like the way Texas

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was playing as opposed to the Mets, and the Mets

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ends up getting that home run late and getting that victory.

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But yeah, it's it's right now. It's it's tough to win.

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It's tough to win anytime, and when people say that,

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it's important to win at the end of the season

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as opposed to the beginning. No mathematically a win and

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just as good as a win. Now, so anybody who

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says that clearly does not know math. But you've got

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to pack up these wins. Look at all the wins

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the Cubs packed up early in the season, and now

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they haven't played well since the all start breaking. Still

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they don't need to win, so you need to pay

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attention to that. But yeah, we're looking at San Francisco

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against Arizona. Tang going for San Francisco, Gallon going for Arizona.

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We're looking at basically Arizona's about it. Yeah, maybe a

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one thirty favorite right now of nine slightly to the over.

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And when you take a look at the numbers from

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Kaiwai Tang seven point five to two ERA but only

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a three point sixty nine expected, his whip is horrendous

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at one point seven to six. In fact, he's pitched

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thirty three innings in the major leagues. He's got a

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he's got an eight point twenty nine ERA one point

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eighty seven whip. Now, it's a small, very small sample

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size of thirty three total innings for two seasons here,

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but if you look at his savant page, and he

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hasn't pitched enough yet, but his fasketball velost season the

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twenty eight percent sits in thirty fourth, does have problems

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with walks. He's at thirteen percent walk rate this year,

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but his barrel rate has been excellent hard everything else

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has been very good. So I think if you were

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to bet Tang the rest of the season, he would

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be profitable. Going with Zach Gallon here, who has turned

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his season around a little bit, but he still comes

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in with a four point eight four, a four point

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five to one expected one point two to eight whip,

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and really, other than his ground ball rate and existension

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which is slightly over league average, everything else is in

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the blue. He's not having his good season. He still

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throws his four seamer forty six percent of the time,

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even though it's one and a half mile per hour

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lower than an average right hander. It's pitching better now

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than he did earlier. But I'm not so sure Arizona

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deserves to be favored here, and there has been some

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money coming in on San Francisco. Yeah, I leaned with

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San Francisco in this one, just because I trust Tang's

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STATCAS number more than his actual numbers that he's placed.

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And yeah, two teams fighting for the playoffs here in

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Arizona's got the better offense. San Francisco for what three

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weeks was the best offense of baseball. Now they're slowing

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down a little bit and coming back to the back

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to it. They are bringing up their first basement Aldridge

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I believe his name is, and he's the number one

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prospect and they're bringing him up. We'll see how that

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goes last couple of weeks of the season. Don't know

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how much we'll play, but at least he gets up

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there and he gets to look at it. I prefer

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San Francisco here as a dog. Don't know if it'll

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make my cart. It's a smaller card today, so don't

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know if it'll get there, but I'm leaning that way.

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Speaker 3: Hey, guys, nice to be back. If I look different

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and sound different, it's because I'm on my laptop in

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my Phoenix home. But yeah, long flight. I'm in the

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US now. If you check my Twitter, which is I

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think down there, you'll see I've been posting my bet

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slips because I'm going to the casino at least twice

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a day, so not a djen or anything, not at all.

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But it's very nice to be back. Hey, doing this

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show in the morning is quite a different feel. If

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I lived in the US, I would not have agreed

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to doing the show at this time. What a trooper

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six in the morning. But anyway, so yeah, regarding this game,

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this is interesting. You pick this game to start. I

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have this game the tightest matchup of all these two teams.

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Tight hitting, they're both top ten bullpen, they're both bottom ten,

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and starting pitching is really the only difference. But Gallen Gallen,

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although he's a trusted veteran, he's still only four points overtang.

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I got them both right around twenty out of thirty

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on a curve of thirty. So man, this is just

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tight all the way up and down. Brian mentioned that

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the Diamondbacks are just two games out of the playoffs,

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well so as San Francisco teams have a chance. So

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they're both fighting, so there's no real edge regarding that.

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And so I took a look at Gallen's history against

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these batters. Nothing special. He's pretty average. Actually, He's got

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like about a two twenty batting average against in about

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a seven to fifty ops. So no real edge there either,

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so if all things are equal, you have more value

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betting the underdog. So I kind of agree with Brian's sentiments.

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And also I agree with Brian. I'm not there yet,

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so I haven't bet it, but if I were to

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bet it, I think San Francisco would be the only

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way to go here.

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Speaker 1: Tb you could, you could go to this game if

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you wanted to. How far are you in Phoenix?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's yeah, it's fifteen minutes from my.

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Speaker 1: House, right, I say. My buddy, one of my best

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friends growing up, moved to the Phoenix, Arizona area, and

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he'll text me all the time. It'll be like I'm

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sitting third row for like twenty bucks, like because we

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grew up going out to Fenway, going to Yankee Stadium.

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He lived in Boston for a while, and I mean,

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just like you know, it's it's it's never a cheap ticket.

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And he lives in Arizona now he's like, this is awesome.

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Like my wife and I go dirt cheap and we

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sit like right behind the dugouts. So it's just like

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being in a smaller market. But yeah, huge game, And

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I'm with you guys, the Giants definitely show some value here.

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So I want to talk about Kaiwai tangs Triple A

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numbers for a second. They're crazy in Triple A this year.

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He's got a three sixty three hour er. But the

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thing that jumps out the most to me eighty nine

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strikeouts in fifty seven innings at Triple A. That is

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a lot of swing and miss. I know it's Triple

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A and and and it maybe hasn't you know, materialized

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at the big league level yet, but like like Brian said,

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small sample size at the big league level. If I'm

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I'm going off of memory, I think he pitched against

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the Padres in back to back games, and there was

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the first game his defense totally let him down, like

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someone botched a double playball that like continued this inning

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and then the same Padres team got to see him

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like a day later or six days later. Sorry, so

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you know, I I again I'm going off memory here.

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I know he pitched well against the Nationals. Point is,

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he hasn't had a ton of time at the big

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league level yet, and last year he wasn't very good.

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Like he he made a lot of changes in the

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offseason that have that have helped him a ton going

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into this year. Uh they talked about it in a

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Sacramento river Cats broadcast one time. That's why I know that.

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Speaker 3: Uh.

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Speaker 1: At in Triple A this year, he is a one

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point one ninety seven batting average against. And the strikeout

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rate is crazy. I am not Brian can do the

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math for me. There eighty what are we eighty nine

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strikeouts in fifty seven innings? That's like insane, right, Like

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that's insane numbers even at any level.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, basically everybody won in the major leagues. It's one

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to one, basically slightly slightly around win to one. So

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even in the miners, that's amazing. And I just wanted

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to point out while while we're doing the show and

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we're talking about how early it is for Brandon, he

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reached for a diet coke as opposed to his so

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you know, earlier in the morning.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I wonder how many people like don't

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realize he's in Japan and just think he's like hitting

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fireball at nine am, Like, if you're on the East coast, up,

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he's got the fireball at nine am. Yeah, two things.

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Speaker 3: Now, I can see why Brian was making those faces.

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When I'm when I'm swigging fireball, I couldn't imagine drinking

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right now at six as.

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Speaker 1: Two things in that that people in the chat have

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brought up that I think are great points. Well, Colin

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and Brian said this as well. Bryce Eldridge huge call up.

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I mean, I don't know how he's going too fair

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right off the bat at the big league level, but

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this dude has insane power, Like just just from a

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straight up like standpoint of putting a power bat in

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the lineup, that is a massive upgrade. The problem isn't

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the reason that he probably hasn't been called up yet

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a little too much swing and miss, and they're probably

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I think he would get exposed at the big league

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level pretty quickly, but you know what, there's two weeks

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left in the season. No one knows how to pitch

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him yet, so like, I mean, you're probably gonna hit

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him fit their sixth and suddenly you have like a

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big time home run threat. I understand what they're doing

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with him. And then Steve Duke says, someone has major

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belief in Tang. They're letting him try to lower his er. Yeah,

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when you have eighty nine strikeouts and fifty seven Triple

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A innings. Like, people are gonna believe in you a

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little bit. I'm a believer in him as well. Like

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I'm a believer in him as well because of what

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they've sort of pointed out on the river Cats broadcast

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this year, all of the different tweaks he made last

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season to this season. He throws a lot of different pitches.

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So guys with like a pretty extensive pitch mix, especially

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starting pitchers when teams haven't seen them much, it's, you know,

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they tend to be a little bit tougher to figure out.

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I'd much rather have the Giants here against Gallon, a

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guy that I think has been sort of overvalued all season,

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than try to lay a price against the unknown, in

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this case, the unknown being someone I think is pretty good.

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So I'm with you, guys, Giants definitely show value here

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for sure. Brian, Is that a Vandy hatt Now that's

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the Vegas Golden Knights right there, Markinson.

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Speaker 2: Vegas Golden Knights. It's getting to be hockey season, and

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my second love other in baseball, is hockey, so I'm

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getting excited. And our last Vegas Aces, the w NBA

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team won the first playoff game yesterday. So yeah, it's

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a good time to be in Vegas.

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Speaker 1: Admittedly, I never got super in the hockey, which is

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really dumb because I live in the Northeast and it's

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so big up here. But I go to college hockey

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games sometimes and they are a blast. So I have

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to say, like, even though I know nothing about the

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sport going to the hockey games, we go to Colgate

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games all the time. I promised they wouldn't bring them up,

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but I did on the show again. But we go

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over to Colgate hockey games all the time and they

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are awesome, so much fun.

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Speaker 2: So hockey games are the most fun out of any

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sport I've ever but I haven't been. I'm not a

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soccer fan, and I guess soccer would be outside of

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the United States or whatever. It's exciting for those guys,

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for me, it's not. But yeah, I never handicaps hockey

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until Love Veas got a team, and ever since I

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just in love with the sport.

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Speaker 3: Hockey is by far the best sport to watch live.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really fun to watch live. I still it's

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mind boggling to me that Syracuse University doesn't have a

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hockey team. I feel like that they should be like

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so big time in college hockey and they don't have

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a team. Go figure, uh, but we'll move on. Let's stay.

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I want to stay in the National League playoff picture

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because somehow, and I just want to make sure I'm

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speaking correctly here before I go to this game. Yes,

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somehow that beat Saint Louis Cardinals should be so dead

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and buried at this point. But like even them, and

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they would this would be pretty far fetched for them

258
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to get back into it. But even the Saint Louis

259
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Cardinals are only four games back and they start a

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series with the Cincinnati Reds where Brian Leonard, I don't know,

261
00:14:05,279 --> 00:14:07,480
how do you get off the mat after you were

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swept by the A's in the situation the Reds were

263
00:14:10,639 --> 00:14:13,960
swept in where it's like they're giving you every opportunity

264
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to take over that last spot and you couldn't go

265
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to West Sacramento and get one win. That being said,

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do you like this spot for them in Saint Louis tonight?

267
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Do you see them sort of bouncing back here?

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Speaker 2: I am in agreement a young team in Cincinnati, the

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changes that they've made at the All Star break and

270
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since the All star break and what they brought in

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for the runs to tell me in one of them

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00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,960
they not really worked out. We're looking at the libratorre

273
00:14:45,080 --> 00:14:47,720
at home about a one o eight one ten favorite

274
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:52,000
and Littel eight and a half basically across the board

275
00:14:52,639 --> 00:14:54,519
on the total. I was looking in a way to

276
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play Saint Louis here. Don't know if I'll get here.

277
00:14:59,399 --> 00:15:01,919
If you take a look Zach Lyttel three point seven

278
00:15:01,960 --> 00:15:04,639
eight e RA four point six to soho expected one

279
00:15:04,679 --> 00:15:08,240
point one to two whip. He doesn't walk anybody, and

280
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he's got a pretty good chase rate, but everything else

281
00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:13,039
is in the blue. He has not had that grade

282
00:15:13,039 --> 00:15:16,840
of a season, even though his ERA is is good

283
00:15:17,279 --> 00:15:19,519
at three point seven eight. I'm not a buyer in him.

284
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Like I said, the last three years he beat is

285
00:15:24,039 --> 00:15:27,120
expected era, and I just don't think he's that great

286
00:15:27,159 --> 00:15:30,600
of a pitcher. Not that not that he doesn't have

287
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value at times, because anybody's got value based on the

288
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line of the game. But I'm not a big fan Libertor.

289
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I thought we'd get more out of Libratory at this

290
00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,000
time in his career. He's in four seasons. He got

291
00:15:44,039 --> 00:15:47,519
a four point seven one one point three whip. It's

292
00:15:47,519 --> 00:15:51,039
starting to show that he is not anything special. His

293
00:15:51,200 --> 00:15:54,720
chase rates decent is sixty seven, doesn't walk anybody seventy

294
00:15:54,799 --> 00:15:57,399
nine percentile. But once again we see a lot of

295
00:15:57,399 --> 00:15:59,759
blue on his stat cast page. So we got two

296
00:15:59,799 --> 00:16:04,480
pitch I would look to go against. But we're getting

297
00:16:04,480 --> 00:16:06,480
an eight and a half here as opposed to an eight.

298
00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:10,759
Don't know if I'll get there with the over, especially Cincinnati,

299
00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:13,559
we could trust them anymore, especially on the road. So

300
00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,279
this is the game I'll be sitting out. But I

301
00:16:17,320 --> 00:16:19,240
had to off to Saint Louis. They've been out of

302
00:16:19,240 --> 00:16:21,759
it for so long. They've had a lot of injuries

303
00:16:21,799 --> 00:16:24,440
on this team, just some key players, and yet they

304
00:16:24,519 --> 00:16:28,480
come out and they continue to play well. That's an

305
00:16:28,559 --> 00:16:32,799
organizational situation. They're a very good organization. And I've been

306
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,720
to a lot of Major League ballparks across the country,

307
00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:41,080
and Saint Louis has got very knowledgeable fans. They when

308
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:43,919
there's a flyball hit, they don't go crazy like every

309
00:16:43,919 --> 00:16:47,000
other sport. They look where the outfielders are at. And

310
00:16:47,039 --> 00:16:49,039
it's something I taught my wife years ago. Just look

311
00:16:49,159 --> 00:16:50,840
at the outfielders when the ball is hit. If they're

312
00:16:50,879 --> 00:16:55,039
not moving, it's not home unless it's really at four

313
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:56,639
hundred and fifty feet and they just stit in there

314
00:16:56,639 --> 00:17:00,159
and watch it. But yeah, it's I'm not gonna get

315
00:17:00,159 --> 00:17:01,159
involved in this one.

316
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:05,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, if the outfielders are jogging slowly towards the fence,

317
00:17:05,799 --> 00:17:10,319
it's usually a home run. But yeah, here's one if

318
00:17:10,519 --> 00:17:15,039
if if you checked my Twitter account, my Twitter x account,

319
00:17:15,200 --> 00:17:19,279
I did post a bet slip on this. So I

320
00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:21,880
kind of agree with Brian's cap, but I kind of

321
00:17:21,920 --> 00:17:24,720
gonna go the opposite direction, and I'll tell you why.

322
00:17:24,839 --> 00:17:27,680
But before I do that, go to wagertalk dot com

323
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,079
and see what we have up. I already put my

324
00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,240
feature MLB play up with a free play as well.

325
00:17:33,559 --> 00:17:36,279
I'm sure these two gentlemen will be doing the same

326
00:17:36,319 --> 00:17:39,240
thing if they have not already. So wages talk dot

327
00:17:39,279 --> 00:17:43,680
com check the free play page because we all usually

328
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:49,480
have something up. I agree with Brian, neither picture has

329
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:53,839
good history against the batters are facing today, and neither

330
00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:57,759
pitcher gets a lot of confidence from me because neither

331
00:17:57,799 --> 00:18:02,160
one has been performing very well. So got to look

332
00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:07,319
somewhere to find some value. Again, I agree with Brian.

333
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,200
I would lean to an over given the fact that

334
00:18:10,319 --> 00:18:14,480
both starting pitchers are struggling, especially against in the head

335
00:18:14,519 --> 00:18:18,599
to head, but neither lineup is actually instilling confidence in

336
00:18:18,640 --> 00:18:21,119
me either. They're both ranked twenty one or worse out

337
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:25,480
of thirty teams in current form, and both bullpens are

338
00:18:25,519 --> 00:18:29,160
basically kind of average, toiling in mediocrity. As I like

339
00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:33,640
to say, Cincinnati's slight edge and bullpen. This is one

340
00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:36,640
of those games where I have one team better at

341
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,119
every category than the other team, but just better by

342
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,359
like one or two points, so it's not a huge confidence.

343
00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:45,680
But I got Cincinnati ranked higher than Saint Louis in

344
00:18:45,759 --> 00:18:49,680
almost every category, but only by a couple points. Another

345
00:18:49,759 --> 00:18:52,519
thing I like more about Lttel than I like about

346
00:18:52,559 --> 00:18:56,640
Lebatore is his walk to strike out rate. He's only

347
00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,240
walking twenty seven percent of the batters he's striking out,

348
00:18:59,279 --> 00:19:06,039
where Librator is walking about forty percent, but neither I

349
00:19:06,079 --> 00:19:09,640
don't see a huge discrepancy between these two teams anywhere

350
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:13,880
else besides there, but just the fact that the Reds

351
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:17,759
are a little bit better at almost everything than Saint Louis.

352
00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:20,799
If you checked my Twitter account, you saw I did

353
00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,480
put a small twenty dollars bet on the Reds minus

354
00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:26,960
one minus one is one of those things where if

355
00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:29,039
your team wins, you don't lose your money, So I

356
00:19:29,079 --> 00:19:32,319
look at it as a very low risk bet, and

357
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,200
I got the Reds minus one at I think plus

358
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,839
one forty five, So it's worth a twenty dollars play

359
00:19:37,839 --> 00:19:41,440
to win forty seven bucks to meet because I have

360
00:19:41,519 --> 00:19:45,440
these two teams the second most equal cap of the day.

361
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,720
But the Red's a little bit better at almost everything,

362
00:19:48,759 --> 00:19:51,000
so I think it was worth a small play there,

363
00:19:51,519 --> 00:19:53,000
but nothing huge.

364
00:19:55,319 --> 00:19:57,599
Speaker 1: Mark Martin in the chat says, if anyone has Caesars

365
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,000
tonight's matchup between the Texans and Bucks, you can get

366
00:20:00,079 --> 00:20:03,519
it like a price that's fifty cents off. Mark, I'll

367
00:20:03,519 --> 00:20:06,240
always point something like that out. Those are that's just

368
00:20:06,839 --> 00:20:09,200
folks helping folks here trying to beat the books. Like

369
00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:12,000
if any if there's ever a scenario where a book

370
00:20:12,039 --> 00:20:14,200
is going to give you a bet at plus one

371
00:20:14,319 --> 00:20:16,759
fifteen that the market is minus one fifty aut, you

372
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,519
should probably try to wait to try to find a

373
00:20:19,559 --> 00:20:22,559
way to get down on it. Just straight up numbers.

374
00:20:22,559 --> 00:20:23,960
I mean that happens every once in a while. So

375
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:27,319
thanks for sharing that Mark, I will I will share

376
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,319
if I play Major League Baseball today, I'm going to

377
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,480
give it out for free. I have a five percent

378
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,920
NFL play up. I did lose my first NFL game

379
00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,400
of the season yesterday, but I'm still five and one

380
00:20:37,480 --> 00:20:39,480
and I have a five percent that goes in Monday

381
00:20:39,519 --> 00:20:42,759
Night Football tonight. So check that out. And like I said,

382
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:44,640
if I do get to the window with a Major

383
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,440
League Baseball game today, it's going to be a free

384
00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:49,839
one and maybe who knows, maybe it'll happen on the show.

385
00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:51,759
But if it doesn't happen on the show, I'll probably

386
00:20:51,759 --> 00:20:54,559
do a video for it or post the right So

387
00:20:55,079 --> 00:20:57,880
I will not be selling Major League Baseball today, just

388
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:00,720
tell you that right now. Not committing of playing it though,

389
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:02,599
because there's only some of There's only nine games, so

390
00:21:02,599 --> 00:21:03,880
I got to see if I can find a way

391
00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:06,000
in the way I would go into this one. Probably

392
00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:07,400
won't be a client play, but I kind of do

393
00:21:07,480 --> 00:21:11,880
see runs. Not not enamored with either of these starting pitchers.

394
00:21:12,799 --> 00:21:16,799
Both have you know, like we kind of use this term,

395
00:21:16,839 --> 00:21:18,640
but both have a lot of blue on the stat

396
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:23,480
cast page. Expected era is not you know, expected batting

397
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,640
average not great Matthew Libertore isn't getting a ton of

398
00:21:28,440 --> 00:21:30,920
swing and miss in the zone. He gets guys to

399
00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:33,319
chase pitches, but when it comes time to like punch

400
00:21:33,400 --> 00:21:35,799
him out and he's got a sort of come back

401
00:21:35,839 --> 00:21:37,480
into the zone or he's behind in the count a

402
00:21:37,519 --> 00:21:40,160
little bit, it's very much out over the heart of

403
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,119
the plate. I think that's been one of the big

404
00:21:42,119 --> 00:21:45,720
reasons he hasn't really taken a step forward. You know,

405
00:21:45,759 --> 00:21:48,799
he's almost like man the Rays traded him. You know,

406
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,119
if the Rays are willing to part ways with someone,

407
00:21:51,119 --> 00:21:53,240
you know, there's got to be something wrong with them

408
00:21:53,240 --> 00:21:56,039
at this point. I think that I think, just going

409
00:21:56,079 --> 00:21:58,039
off topic here, I'm pretty sure this is who they

410
00:21:58,640 --> 00:22:01,359
scan the Cardinals for. It to get Randy at Rosarana

411
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,279
back as like a player to be named later in

412
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,960
a trade. It's like just like an all time fleesh

413
00:22:06,039 --> 00:22:08,400
job by the by the Rays, who are just very

414
00:22:08,400 --> 00:22:11,039
good at doing that. Point is the point I'm trying

415
00:22:11,039 --> 00:22:14,440
to make here, is very roundabout point. He's looked very average.

416
00:22:14,680 --> 00:22:16,480
I think he may. You know, you look at his

417
00:22:16,559 --> 00:22:21,400
last three years whips like one three, one three eight

418
00:22:21,839 --> 00:22:24,680
Era's in the mid forest. My gut and my eyes

419
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,000
are telling me that that's probably what he is. He's

420
00:22:27,079 --> 00:22:31,160
just kind of a consistently okay big league starter, someone

421
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,440
you want to have you keep in your rotation because

422
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,960
he's consistent. But I just don't know that he's like

423
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,640
shutting many teams down, and I don't think he's going

424
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,640
to shut the Reds down. On the other side, Like

425
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:44,880
Brian said about Lattel, I mean, you know, expected eiras

426
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:48,799
four six zero, expected batting average two seventy. Those are

427
00:22:48,799 --> 00:22:52,039
not great. Only throwing like ninety one miles an hour.

428
00:22:53,799 --> 00:22:57,160
Not now again, no strikeout there either. I guess his

429
00:22:57,279 --> 00:23:00,279
best attribute is he doesn't walk anyone. But like that's

430
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,079
not great if you're just if you're you know, being

431
00:23:03,200 --> 00:23:04,799
being in and around the plate is a good thing.

432
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,279
Being out over the plate not a good thing. These

433
00:23:07,279 --> 00:23:09,079
are big league hitters. They can they can hit that.

434
00:23:09,319 --> 00:23:11,160
And then I'll go back to the fact that we're

435
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,640
getting the nice number of eight and a half. I

436
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:16,200
love that number on and over because you know, you

437
00:23:16,319 --> 00:23:18,960
both both teams get to four and you're cashing a

438
00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,559
ticket in major League Baseball, So I like the over

439
00:23:21,599 --> 00:23:24,759
here probably won't make my card, but that is the

440
00:23:24,799 --> 00:23:26,559
way I look at this game. I also think both

441
00:23:26,599 --> 00:23:29,759
teams have bullpens that can be had if you will,

442
00:23:30,240 --> 00:23:32,640
they can give up a timely hit or two. And

443
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,039
these two games, and that's don't play today. So these

444
00:23:35,079 --> 00:23:38,359
two games, we've started the show with them today. There's

445
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:40,839
a half game to be made up. If you win.

446
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:42,440
I mean, they're all going to be going for it.

447
00:23:42,799 --> 00:23:45,359
And this game, in particular, Mike my gut tells me

448
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,759
Red's Cardinals have a late run or two a late hit.

449
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,759
None of these teams have like super high leverage arms

450
00:23:51,759 --> 00:23:54,160
that I trust. So again that just helps me to

451
00:23:54,279 --> 00:23:57,680
over eight and a half runs. Sorry, we're what are

452
00:23:57,680 --> 00:23:58,440
you gonna follow up?

453
00:23:58,440 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 2: There?

454
00:23:58,759 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 1: I rambled, which is not as par for the course

455
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:02,200
for me.

456
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 3: We can go to a different one, all right, Sorry

457
00:24:04,759 --> 00:24:05,240
about that?

458
00:24:05,359 --> 00:24:07,240
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to a different Let's go to

459
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:12,480
a different game. Let's go to let's stay in. I

460
00:24:12,519 --> 00:24:14,480
want to make sure we'll get to some of the

461
00:24:14,599 --> 00:24:17,160
quote unquote meaningless games, but I do want to try

462
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,920
to focus on some of the games with meaning. I'm

463
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:23,480
going to go to the American League here, Rangers Astros

464
00:24:23,519 --> 00:24:26,759
is suddenly a very important well not sudden, it's just

465
00:24:26,799 --> 00:24:29,519
a very important game. Brian said, he missed with the

466
00:24:29,599 --> 00:24:32,200
Rangers yesterday. But they've been playing great. They've played their

467
00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:37,559
way back into the mix the NL West. Don't look now,

468
00:24:37,599 --> 00:24:40,240
but there's my Mariners back at the top of the

469
00:24:40,279 --> 00:24:44,079
division by a game and the Rangers are three back.

470
00:24:44,559 --> 00:24:46,920
This So when I gave out on my free pick

471
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:51,200
video last Tuesday, the Rangers were twelve to one to

472
00:24:51,279 --> 00:24:54,039
win this division, and this was the series I had

473
00:24:54,079 --> 00:24:56,440
circled where it's like, this is the series they need

474
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:58,920
to have success in and they might be able to

475
00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:02,640
run down in the Astro. Well, here we are. Rangers

476
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,200
did their job last week, seven and three in their

477
00:25:05,279 --> 00:25:08,440
last ten games. They're three games back and they get

478
00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:10,680
head to head games against the you know, one of

479
00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:14,519
the teams that they're chasing here in the Astros. I

480
00:25:14,759 --> 00:25:17,079
like Jack Lighter. He's someone that I think is moving

481
00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:19,000
in the right direction. So, Brian Leonard, do you think

482
00:25:19,119 --> 00:25:20,799
he's good enough to get the Rangers to win on

483
00:25:20,799 --> 00:25:21,519
the road here.

484
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,519
Speaker 2: It's going up against Jason Alexander Houston, and Houston's about

485
00:25:25,519 --> 00:25:27,839
a one to twenty five favorite total late in a

486
00:25:27,839 --> 00:25:32,440
half to the under Jack Leder. Yeah, he's pitched better lately,

487
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:34,000
I don't. I think he got hit pretty well his

488
00:25:34,039 --> 00:25:37,319
last start, But overall, I like the way he's You

489
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,200
put that very well. He's trending in the right direction,

490
00:25:40,319 --> 00:25:45,920
and I agree because his numbers are not overall great.

491
00:25:45,920 --> 00:25:48,640
Three point eight one ERA, four point sixty three expected

492
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:51,759
one point three to one whip. His fastball veloss, he's

493
00:25:51,839 --> 00:25:54,359
very good. His extension is very good. He's only six

494
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,440
six foot one but got eighty ninth percentile extension. Those

495
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,519
are the highlights. Everything else is in thel so there is.

496
00:26:02,559 --> 00:26:05,960
He shows you how poorly he pitched it many times

497
00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:09,440
this season, but I think he's going up there. He's

498
00:26:09,559 --> 00:26:13,079
got the good fastball ninety seven point two miles an

499
00:26:13,079 --> 00:26:14,880
hour he throws at thirty eight percent of the time.

500
00:26:15,599 --> 00:26:17,599
One of the few guys that probably could get away

501
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:20,079
with throwing it even more. And I don't say that

502
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:24,519
much about fastballs, but he's had good success there. Jason Alexander,

503
00:26:25,039 --> 00:26:26,960
I was pitched better when I thought this year four

504
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,880
point one ninety RA four point five to seven expected

505
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,720
one point three to one whip. But he can't get

506
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,920
eight chases at all. He's in the first percentile and

507
00:26:35,000 --> 00:26:38,920
chase rate part hit rate eleventh percent, tile fastball velocity

508
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,839
ten percent. Tle He's really not a good pitcher, and

509
00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:43,640
for him to come in this season with a four

510
00:26:43,680 --> 00:26:46,799
to one record. Obviously they scored some runs when he

511
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:50,160
is on the mound, but out of the two, I

512
00:26:50,279 --> 00:26:53,519
prefer later. I you know, we're looking at a really

513
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:58,079
a weaker Texas lineup than what we saw earlier. Obviously

514
00:26:58,119 --> 00:26:59,680
Siger has been out. He's out for the rest of

515
00:26:59,720 --> 00:27:03,240
the year. IF have some other guys that are disappointed offensively,

516
00:27:03,319 --> 00:27:06,160
but if I play it, Texas probably the only way

517
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,559
I go. But I don't think we're getting enough here.

518
00:27:08,759 --> 00:27:11,279
You can catch one point thirteen is the best comeback

519
00:27:11,839 --> 00:27:14,880
on Texas as low as you know, plus one hundred

520
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:18,960
right now, but I prefer the Texas side. I'm just

521
00:27:19,039 --> 00:27:22,000
not getting the number I wanted, so unfortunately, I'll probably

522
00:27:22,000 --> 00:27:22,720
set this one out.

523
00:27:25,039 --> 00:27:27,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, guys, go to wajytalk dot com and see what

524
00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,799
we have up. My feature MLB play is already up

525
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,240
along with a free play, so go grab that. Some

526
00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:38,640
of my casino betting tickets are posted on Twitter right now,

527
00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:43,200
so check my Twitter out as well. I agree with Brian,

528
00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:44,880
I'm not going to play this game and I'll tell

529
00:27:44,880 --> 00:27:51,480
you why. Two pitchers who have one point three plus whips.

530
00:27:51,519 --> 00:27:55,400
Not a lot of confidence in that. But leaders a

531
00:27:55,519 --> 00:27:58,680
lighter is a strange guy because he's got a really

532
00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,640
good era with a bad whip. You take a look

533
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:04,359
at his head to head stats against these batters, not

534
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:08,400
a huge stamp size, but thirty three is decent to

535
00:28:08,440 --> 00:28:11,680
twelve batting average against with the seven forty ops not terrible.

536
00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:16,279
It's actually pretty good. But if you take a look

537
00:28:16,279 --> 00:28:19,640
at his rankings, I have Alexander ranked quite a bit

538
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,640
higher than him, so I'm kind of at a stalemate there.

539
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:25,119
Don't really know what to make. It's kind of the

540
00:28:25,119 --> 00:28:28,200
pitching matchup here is kind of an enigma to me.

541
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:32,720
Texas definitely has a bullpen advantage in current form. I

542
00:28:32,759 --> 00:28:35,279
have them ranked five, while I have Houston ranked thirteen,

543
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:41,960
but both bullpens performing quite well, so over under not sure.

544
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,599
Let's take a look at the batting. I got the

545
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:46,960
Astros batting just a little bit better in current form,

546
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:50,720
about five points higher. A stalemate for me, guys, I

547
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:53,200
don't know which way to go here. I think Jason

548
00:28:53,200 --> 00:28:57,000
Alexander is a better pitcher, but if you peel back

549
00:28:57,119 --> 00:29:01,359
the skin of the onion or or whatever that saying is.

550
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,000
Leader is actually a pretty decent pitcher. He was one

551
00:29:05,000 --> 00:29:07,759
of my chronic walkers at the beginning of the season,

552
00:29:07,799 --> 00:29:10,119
but he's kind of cured that a little bit. So

553
00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,720
I'm not gonna bet his walk prop here either, So

554
00:29:14,039 --> 00:29:16,039
don't really know where to go. I'm with Brian here.

555
00:29:16,039 --> 00:29:17,359
I'll probably lay off this game.

556
00:29:20,319 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 1: Someone needs to explain to me how Jason Alexander has

557
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,799
not gotten absolutely pummeled at the big league level this year.

558
00:29:26,119 --> 00:29:28,960
I need someone like to give me a thorough explanation

559
00:29:29,039 --> 00:29:32,200
at how's that's how that's possible? This dude should be

560
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:35,759
getting lit up like a Christmas tree, but he's just not.

561
00:29:36,279 --> 00:29:39,359
And sometimes there's something to that, right, Like I mean,

562
00:29:39,359 --> 00:29:42,720
he gets no swing and miss, so it's like everything's

563
00:29:42,759 --> 00:29:47,200
in the zone. There's not he throws. He essentially throws

564
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:50,480
four pitches, none of which he doesn't have like a

565
00:29:50,519 --> 00:29:52,960
plus pitch. So when I see a guy that I

566
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,720
think should be getting hit, I'm trying to figure out, like, Okay,

567
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,440
why is this not? Why does this guy not get hit? Okay?

568
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,240
And so I look for swing and miss, Well, he's

569
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:03,759
not getting any swing and miss. Does he have a

570
00:30:03,799 --> 00:30:06,160
really good pitch? Does he have a really good differential?

571
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:10,720
That's confusing someone? Not really sinker change sweeper for steamer

572
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,480
ninety to ninety two on his fastballs in eighty mile

573
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:17,440
an hour change up. It's not like he has this

574
00:30:17,559 --> 00:30:20,519
great wipeout sweeper. So I look at him, just like,

575
00:30:20,559 --> 00:30:23,720
how is this guy not getting crushed by big league hitting?

576
00:30:25,119 --> 00:30:27,400
I don't know. My gut says he still should be

577
00:30:27,440 --> 00:30:30,200
getting crushed by big lead pitching. I meant big lea pitching. Sorry,

578
00:30:30,279 --> 00:30:33,319
so I can only go against that. I just I

579
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:36,799
cannot understand how he's getting out, Like what did he

580
00:30:36,880 --> 00:30:39,880
do in his last start? Seven scoreless? Something crazy like that?

581
00:30:40,359 --> 00:30:43,359
Seven scoreless against the Blue Jays? What am I?

582
00:30:43,519 --> 00:30:43,599
Speaker 3: Like?

583
00:30:43,640 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 1: I need to know what I'm missing here? How is

584
00:30:45,759 --> 00:30:48,400
he going against the Blue Jays and not giving up

585
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,680
a single run? I mean he's a right he's right

586
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:53,400
handed pitcher. So then I'm like, is he a lefty?

587
00:30:53,519 --> 00:30:55,880
Is he like kind of crafty? Does he confuse guys?

588
00:30:56,559 --> 00:30:59,240
I just I can't figure it out. I feel like

589
00:30:59,279 --> 00:31:01,960
this guy should begin crushed at the big league level. Now,

590
00:31:02,000 --> 00:31:05,200
Colin makes a good point. He goes Astros system working

591
00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:07,839
their magic with a random pitcher. They definitely have done

592
00:31:07,839 --> 00:31:11,119
that at times, so maybe he's, you know, maybe the

593
00:31:11,200 --> 00:31:13,519
end and he did not like one thing. I'll also

594
00:31:13,519 --> 00:31:15,119
point out he did not start the year in the

595
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,839
Astro system, so some of those numbers he was with

596
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,920
the A's. I do think he got a call up

597
00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:22,200
with the A's earlier this year for a period of time,

598
00:31:23,119 --> 00:31:26,400
got knocked around, ended up down at sugar Land. Now

599
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:29,799
he's with the Astros. I still have to look to

600
00:31:29,799 --> 00:31:32,000
fade him. And as far as Jack Lighter's concerned, I'll

601
00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,759
say this again, I said this last week when he

602
00:31:33,799 --> 00:31:37,920
came up. I think the Rangers maybe mismanaged him and

603
00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:40,839
the Miners a little bit here. That so last year

604
00:31:41,039 --> 00:31:44,960
Jack Lighter very young, top prospect. Typically you don't call

605
00:31:45,000 --> 00:31:46,960
these guys up on a win, and the Rangers did

606
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,200
it like three times last year where it was like

607
00:31:49,319 --> 00:31:53,279
emergency twenty seventh man for a doubleheader, they called up Lighter.

608
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,720
He got crushed, bad situation for him. Then he goes

609
00:31:56,759 --> 00:31:58,079
down to the Miners. He's pitching well.

610
00:31:58,079 --> 00:31:58,359
Speaker 2: Again.

611
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,039
Speaker 1: I remember it was the A's because the Ages called

612
00:32:01,119 --> 00:32:02,799
up as Valdo Bido on the same day and it

613
00:32:02,839 --> 00:32:04,880
was like Okay, let's just throw the two triple A

614
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,240
starters that we're supposed to pitch that day. In the mix,

615
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,039
Lighter gets called up crushed. So it's like they kind

616
00:32:10,039 --> 00:32:13,359
of killed his confidence last year, and then this year

617
00:32:13,599 --> 00:32:16,160
he's at the big league level and suddenly like he's

618
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,440
he's got stuff to work out and they're trying to

619
00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:19,759
have him do it at the big league level. So

620
00:32:19,799 --> 00:32:22,480
when you look at his profile, it's like he's got

621
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:25,599
this great fastball ninety eight miles an now, big big arm,

622
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,559
big time heater, great extension, and it's like he just

623
00:32:29,599 --> 00:32:34,319
hasn't really developed the out pitches yet. But that's where

624
00:32:34,359 --> 00:32:35,920
I say he's trending in the right direction because I

625
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:38,079
think he's I think that stuff is now. You know,

626
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:40,680
we're in what mid September. I think he started to

627
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,359
develop that a little bit, and I think you've seen

628
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,920
it with him, like post All Star Break, he's been

629
00:32:45,000 --> 00:32:48,480
much better. So when I look at this game, Lighter's

630
00:32:48,480 --> 00:32:50,799
a guy I want to bet on. Alexander's the guy

631
00:32:50,799 --> 00:32:52,880
I want to fade. I'm not in love with how

632
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,680
many relievers the Rangers have used the last week or so,

633
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,240
but I've said this all year about the Rangers bullpen.

634
00:32:58,319 --> 00:33:01,440
They don't they don't have like these big time leverage arms.

635
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:03,559
It's more of a depth thing. So it's like this,

636
00:33:03,799 --> 00:33:05,799
the sixth guy out of the Rangers pen is like

637
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:08,519
kind of the same as the first or second. So

638
00:33:08,559 --> 00:33:12,200
I'm less concerned about Rangers bullpen usage. Then I would

639
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,039
be like, let's say another team that has like huge

640
00:33:15,519 --> 00:33:18,200
closer eighth inning guy, and then there's a big drop off.

641
00:33:18,440 --> 00:33:21,400
So I'm definitely considering the Rangers here. I don't know

642
00:33:21,440 --> 00:33:22,960
if it's gonna be my parlay leg I want to

643
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:24,799
see how the rest of the show plays out, but

644
00:33:24,799 --> 00:33:27,119
plus one ten on the Rangers, and this spot seems

645
00:33:27,839 --> 00:33:32,519
very intriguing with Lighter against Alexander. Okay, let's go to

646
00:33:33,200 --> 00:33:36,799
I want to go to Markinson. Somehow lost his comment.

647
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:43,640
I lost his comment anyway, Markinson wants to talk raise JS.

648
00:33:44,160 --> 00:33:46,359
I don't know where the comment went, but uh, it's

649
00:33:46,400 --> 00:33:48,960
there something and he wants to talk raise JS and

650
00:33:49,000 --> 00:33:53,839
I'm fine with that. This Brian is I think this

651
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:57,279
is a great illustration of why there's like more value

652
00:33:57,279 --> 00:34:00,319
in Major League Baseball than any of the other pro sports,

653
00:34:00,640 --> 00:34:02,839
because you just don't get the nuance like like you

654
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,960
do in other pro sports, where you have a team

655
00:34:06,079 --> 00:34:10,079
like the Blue Jays who are probably gonna win their

656
00:34:10,079 --> 00:34:13,000
division and they're gonna call up one of their young

657
00:34:13,039 --> 00:34:15,239
guys and you're and a lot of people are really

658
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,800
not sure why. And I think if you can like

659
00:34:17,880 --> 00:34:21,199
kind of understand how some of this stuff works, it's

660
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,519
a good assessment of value. So I'll let you start.

661
00:34:23,719 --> 00:34:26,159
But this looks like Blue Jays Rays. We should see

662
00:34:26,159 --> 00:34:28,920
the Major League gave you here of Trey Savage for

663
00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,719
the Blue Jays. Do you have a starter for the

664
00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:33,880
Rays yet?

665
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 4: No.

666
00:34:35,519 --> 00:34:38,519
Speaker 1: I think it might be Boil. I think it might

667
00:34:38,559 --> 00:34:40,760
be Joe Boyle, but I don't know if that's confirmed

668
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:41,360
at this time.

669
00:34:41,519 --> 00:34:45,239
Speaker 3: Yesterday they put they put Pepio up quickly and then

670
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,360
took it down, so maybe it's not going to be him.

671
00:34:49,440 --> 00:34:52,559
Speaker 1: So I guess, yeah, I mean, I guess we just

672
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,320
I was. Yeah. I don't see anything listed yet, I did.

673
00:34:55,719 --> 00:34:58,199
I'll try to find it on Twitter. But I know

674
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,000
we're gonna see Trey A. Savage for the Blue Jay

675
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:02,719
which is notable, one of the top pitching prospects in

676
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,280
the organization, and he's going to make his big league

677
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:10,239
debut So for Mark Kinsen, let's talk raise Jays.

678
00:35:11,280 --> 00:35:14,800
Speaker 2: We're looking at basically a one fifteen, one ten to

679
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:18,519
one fifteen favorite for Toronto Tampa Bay. Obviously don't know

680
00:35:18,559 --> 00:35:20,880
who the picture is right now, but we're looking either

681
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:25,039
eight and a half over or nine hunder. This is

682
00:35:25,079 --> 00:35:27,679
a guy. If you're a Toronto fan, I think you're

683
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,480
got some great excitement there. He's a major strikeout pitcher,

684
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:36,000
so I can I can see their annoficers saying after

685
00:35:36,039 --> 00:35:41,519
a strikeout, yes, Savage, I think that would be awesome.

686
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,039
But he's he's a number one prospect. He's only twenty

687
00:35:45,039 --> 00:35:48,320
two years old, and that is a concern in bringing

688
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:52,000
him up at twenty two, and he really he's not

689
00:35:52,119 --> 00:35:57,199
pitched a lot of innings this year. He's gone about

690
00:35:57,199 --> 00:35:59,639
one hundred and fifty or so on forty one to fifty.

691
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:04,800
But in the majors, I'm looking for him to have

692
00:36:04,880 --> 00:36:09,400
some pretty good success here, major strikeout guy, and at

693
00:36:09,440 --> 00:36:11,440
age twenty two, we'll see how it goes. He is

694
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:16,480
a writing and normally when guys come up that aren't known,

695
00:36:16,639 --> 00:36:19,559
I prefer left to his overrightings. But I think they're

696
00:36:19,559 --> 00:36:22,119
going to bring him up. They said they want the

697
00:36:22,159 --> 00:36:25,519
best arms in their bullpen when they get to the playoffs,

698
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,199
so they'll let him start. I don't know how long

699
00:36:28,199 --> 00:36:30,679
ago go. We'll probably go normal time, but when he's

700
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,159
used in the playoffs, probably you may see him as

701
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:37,559
a bullpen arm, unless, of course, he for some reason

702
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:42,400
has a lot of success like the Met's pitcher, and

703
00:36:43,039 --> 00:36:46,320
if it does, he'll be He'll be there until they

704
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,800
decide that he's thrown too many innings, So we'll see

705
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:51,639
how it goes. Maybe he'll be an opener of some sort.

706
00:36:51,679 --> 00:36:54,239
But the rest of the regular season he's coming out

707
00:36:54,239 --> 00:36:57,159
of the bullpen. Can't comment on Tampa Bay because we

708
00:36:57,159 --> 00:37:01,079
don't know who the starting pitcher is, but the lines,

709
00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,840
the line's somewhat favorable here for Toronto considering they're still

710
00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,400
fighting to win that division and Tampa Bay is long

711
00:37:07,440 --> 00:37:09,880
out of it. It's a cheap number. If you believe

712
00:37:09,920 --> 00:37:13,920
in Toronto. I can't you can't do anything but go

713
00:37:14,119 --> 00:37:16,280
up from here. So I think it's if you're if

714
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:19,280
you're looking to bet it, get in on them now

715
00:37:19,519 --> 00:37:22,159
and maybe you can beat the lesson line movement or something.

716
00:37:24,199 --> 00:37:26,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's a lot of X factors in this game.

717
00:37:27,039 --> 00:37:30,320
Looking up Tray Savage. Yeah, what is gonna have one

718
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:33,639
hundred and sixty strikeouts at ninety eight innings is pretty

719
00:37:33,639 --> 00:37:36,280
good stuff, a little bit high era in his minor

720
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:39,960
league career, but Adam will probably talk about that a

721
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:45,400
little more than I will. So yesterday when Pepio was

722
00:37:45,440 --> 00:37:49,039
the listing starter kind of is leaning towards Tampa Bay.

723
00:37:49,239 --> 00:37:54,199
But simply because you have an established bitcher against against

724
00:37:54,199 --> 00:37:56,800
the guy who's making his major league debut, I would

725
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:59,400
see a little value there, But now that Tampa Bay

726
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:03,519
is change it to undecided. Look, I have both of

727
00:38:03,519 --> 00:38:08,360
these bullpens pretty equal in current form, one of them thirteen,

728
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:12,320
one of them fourteen, So not not a huge discrepancy

729
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:16,000
or value there. Tampa Bay definitely has the hitting advantage though,

730
00:38:16,119 --> 00:38:18,760
or I'm sorry, Toronto definitely has the hitting advantage. It

731
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:21,880
got them ranked number two in MLB, where I got

732
00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:26,920
Tampa Bay ranked fifteen in current form. So where does

733
00:38:26,960 --> 00:38:29,159
that put us? Still a lot of X factors, but

734
00:38:31,119 --> 00:38:33,840
I think a kid making his debut with a power

735
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,719
packed lineup behind him, given how electric he's been in

736
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:41,599
the minors, maybe a slight advantage here for Toronto. I'm

737
00:38:41,639 --> 00:38:45,039
seeing minus one or something I don't know. That might

738
00:38:45,079 --> 00:38:47,960
be a little bit too steep for someone making his

739
00:38:48,079 --> 00:38:51,280
MLB debut. A lot of X factors here, but if

740
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:57,039
I think Toronto will probably win the game, but too

741
00:38:57,039 --> 00:38:58,480
many X factors to play it for.

742
00:38:58,519 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 1: Me, A really good point before I get into my breakdown.

743
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:07,000
By Turnbuckle, Tommy, you'll see movement all day up till

744
00:39:07,039 --> 00:39:10,480
game time. Books really aren't confident in their their MLB

745
00:39:10,599 --> 00:39:12,960
numbers until right before first pitch. That is a very

746
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:17,119
good that. That's a very observant and like astute observation.

747
00:39:17,199 --> 00:39:20,599
I think that's very accurate. I they're never confident in

748
00:39:20,639 --> 00:39:23,039
the overnight. You really can't get much down on MLB

749
00:39:23,159 --> 00:39:25,440
overnights anymore in many places, a lot of a lot

750
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:28,840
of books have sort of limited your ability to like

751
00:39:29,199 --> 00:39:32,239
bet or bet big overnight, and it's for that reason.

752
00:39:33,119 --> 00:39:35,000
They're just not confident in what these teams are going

753
00:39:35,079 --> 00:39:38,039
to do. Like I say, Joe Boyle here for the raise,

754
00:39:38,119 --> 00:39:40,559
like he was supposed to pitch for Durham yesterday and

755
00:39:40,719 --> 00:39:43,239
he got scratched. So that's that's that's where I'm getting that.

756
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,199
I really have no clue if he's going to be

757
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,360
their starter. But I know that he was supposed to

758
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,280
start for Durham yesterday. He got scratched at the last second.

759
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,480
That typically means big league club called and said, hey,

760
00:39:52,519 --> 00:39:54,599
we need a starter for tomorrow. You're not going to

761
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:58,079
use him, throw someone else out there. So that's that's

762
00:39:58,079 --> 00:40:00,280
what they did. And that's why I'm saying boil now.

763
00:40:01,000 --> 00:40:04,719
I've watched every inning of Treya Savage at the Triple

764
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,679
A level since he's been called up. First of all,

765
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,280
this dude will be playing in his fifth different level

766
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:12,719
of affiliated ball this year, which is kind of crazy.

767
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:16,079
He started in a ball, not High A. He started

768
00:40:16,119 --> 00:40:19,320
in Single A, and he's gone Single A, High A,

769
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:22,280
Double A, Triple A, and now he will be pitching

770
00:40:22,559 --> 00:40:25,320
in the majors tonight. The reason I say you really

771
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,599
need to know, like the nuance of the situation is

772
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,719
this is going They will be looking at him here.

773
00:40:31,079 --> 00:40:32,559
I feel like he's going to be kind of an

774
00:40:32,559 --> 00:40:38,320
opener for this game. They the Buffalo Bison's broadcast talked

775
00:40:38,320 --> 00:40:41,039
about this like last week. The Blue Jays are looking

776
00:40:41,039 --> 00:40:43,320
at him as a relief option. They want to see

777
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:45,440
if he can be like a one inning option. They've

778
00:40:45,480 --> 00:40:47,440
actually gone as far as to bring him out of

779
00:40:47,480 --> 00:40:51,119
the bullpen in minor league games. I think he will

780
00:40:51,440 --> 00:40:53,719
likely start this one, but I think you're going to

781
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:56,599
see him maybe two innings. So that's the only concerning

782
00:40:56,599 --> 00:40:59,599
thing for me is that I don't think this is

783
00:40:59,639 --> 00:41:02,920
like a a start. I think this is like, maybe

784
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,480
see if you can get the Ray's top four or

785
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,159
five hitters out. I'd be shocked if this is more

786
00:41:08,199 --> 00:41:11,800
than like a two inning outing for him. I we'll see.

787
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,000
I mean, he's gone so so far at Triple A.

788
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:17,679
His longest outing at Triple A was four and two thirds,

789
00:41:18,000 --> 00:41:20,039
but that was about a month ago. The last three

790
00:41:20,079 --> 00:41:22,480
times he hasn't pitched more than three innings, and I

791
00:41:22,599 --> 00:41:27,119
believe two of those were relief appearances. And then last

792
00:41:27,119 --> 00:41:30,519
week against Rochester he took the first three innings. They

793
00:41:30,519 --> 00:41:32,679
could have easily took him out the three innings he

794
00:41:32,719 --> 00:41:35,159
pitched against Rochester, or they could have easily left him

795
00:41:35,159 --> 00:41:37,639
out there. Sorry, last week, the three innings he pitched

796
00:41:37,639 --> 00:41:40,639
against Rochester at the beginning of the game, four strikeouts,

797
00:41:40,679 --> 00:41:43,480
no walks, got every batter out, So it's like it

798
00:41:43,519 --> 00:41:45,440
wasn't like they couldn't have just left him out there

799
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,639
for the fourth inning. I think I think he went

800
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:51,079
nine up, nine down. What I've noticed in his big

801
00:41:51,159 --> 00:41:54,239
lead in his triple A starts is guys are not

802
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,559
chasing quite as much. His walk rate is a little

803
00:41:57,559 --> 00:42:01,119
bit up. That makes sense, right, You're facing more veteran hitters,

804
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:04,360
but the strikeout rate is still there. The stuff is

805
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:07,320
so nasty. I don't really know what to do here

806
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,360
because it's like, I think he could come out and

807
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:11,480
be filthy, but I don't think you're going to see

808
00:42:11,519 --> 00:42:13,360
it for more than two or three innings. So you're

809
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:15,239
going to have to figure out what this Blue Jays

810
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:17,559
bullpen is going to do for seven innings or six innings.

811
00:42:18,000 --> 00:42:20,360
And that hasn't been great, right, The Blue Jays bullpen

812
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:24,199
over the last two three months really hasn't been that great. So,

813
00:42:24,679 --> 00:42:26,519
and I like Joe Boyle. If it does in fact

814
00:42:26,639 --> 00:42:28,679
end up being Joe Boyle, He's not someone that I'm

815
00:42:28,719 --> 00:42:31,199
like dying to that again, So just my take on

816
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:34,800
the game, probably no way in it for me. But TV,

817
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:37,760
you know what, do they still have first three innings

818
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:40,599
at any of these books? Is that still a thing?

819
00:42:40,679 --> 00:42:40,960
It was?

820
00:42:41,079 --> 00:42:46,760
Speaker 3: Yeahs DraftKings. Does I know they have first three? Like

821
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,719
totals I'm not sure if they have sides.

822
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:54,519
Speaker 1: Though, if you could get first if you could drafts.

823
00:42:54,159 --> 00:42:56,400
Speaker 3: Offers first three, first five, first.

824
00:42:56,199 --> 00:42:59,559
Speaker 1: Seven, I thought they did. If you can get a

825
00:42:59,599 --> 00:43:01,480
first here, That's the thing. What I've noticed about first

826
00:43:01,519 --> 00:43:03,199
three and first five is a lot of times they

827
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:05,559
just copy paste. They don't really change it very much.

828
00:43:06,119 --> 00:43:08,679
If you could find a first three innings Blue Jays

829
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,239
line or a first three innings under that's like the

830
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:15,239
most likely scenario here. I think he comes out wipes

831
00:43:15,280 --> 00:43:17,159
out the race top five or six hitters, but I

832
00:43:17,159 --> 00:43:19,159
don't think he's in long So if you can find

833
00:43:19,199 --> 00:43:21,920
a way to like isolate that, that's like the way

834
00:43:21,920 --> 00:43:24,519
you would play the SPS. Savage here is my in

835
00:43:24,559 --> 00:43:28,000
my opinion. Also, no, I'm not drinking a twisted tea.

836
00:43:28,199 --> 00:43:30,119
I haven't seen a twisted tea in like ten years.

837
00:43:30,119 --> 00:43:32,559
I didn't even know that still exists existed. But I

838
00:43:32,599 --> 00:43:35,039
do have a minute made zero sugar rate here. Someone's

839
00:43:35,079 --> 00:43:37,960
like a shrig hammering twisted teas on a Monday morning

840
00:43:39,159 --> 00:43:41,159
after the week after my weekend. I mean, I guess

841
00:43:41,159 --> 00:43:45,039
you could say that might be a possibility. After watching

842
00:43:45,039 --> 00:43:47,800
Travis Kelgi try to catch football, I wanted to drink

843
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:51,280
a few twisted teas, but no, I'm drinking a sugar

844
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:59,480
free lemonade right here. Okay, let's let's move on. Here

845
00:43:59,519 --> 00:44:02,320
we go, So let's go to Marc Mark Martin. He said,

846
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,719
Brian Leonard, he's asking you specifically, and you're going to

847
00:44:04,800 --> 00:44:07,159
start anyway. So this is great. He says. It's a

848
00:44:07,199 --> 00:44:09,760
Phillies at plus one fifteen in auto play, So right

849
00:44:09,800 --> 00:44:12,239
over to you on the Phillies. I forgot who they're

850
00:44:12,239 --> 00:44:16,199
even playing. Oh, Rodgers Dodgers. Oh well, of course we

851
00:44:16,239 --> 00:44:18,519
have to talk about this game. Then Phillies Dodgers go ahead.

852
00:44:19,159 --> 00:44:21,360
Speaker 2: I can't believe we've gone this long without talking about

853
00:44:21,360 --> 00:44:26,039
this game. You got probably the two best teams in

854
00:44:26,079 --> 00:44:30,320
the National League going head to head here, h interesting game.

855
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:34,280
You got Rangers Morez, the lefty who will finish in

856
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:36,440
the top five, and the saw Young he's been terrific

857
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:40,039
all season long. Immachian going for the Dodgers, and I

858
00:44:40,239 --> 00:44:43,039
like Emmachian. He started to come around. He's starting to

859
00:44:43,039 --> 00:44:46,440
pitch a lot better, and there's actually talk now that

860
00:44:46,519 --> 00:44:49,280
he makes the rotation next year, which was a long

861
00:44:49,320 --> 00:44:52,239
shot if they were all healthy. But we've got Sheen

862
00:44:52,360 --> 00:44:55,400
coming in basically about a one twenty favorite total of

863
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:59,360
eight and a half here, and uh yeah, you'd looking

864
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,199
at Rangers swar As two point seven seven ERA two

865
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,920
point nine seven expected. Other than his fastball velossity, which

866
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:07,880
is only in the seventh percentile, he's not gonna blow

867
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:11,440
anybody away in that regard. Ninety one point three on

868
00:45:11,559 --> 00:45:14,199
his four seemer and only throws at fourteen percent of

869
00:45:14,199 --> 00:45:17,639
the time. His numbers are awesome for the most part.

870
00:45:17,760 --> 00:45:20,199
It doesn't have great extension. He's only six foot one,

871
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:24,960
but his hard hit percentage ninety ninth percentile. Every Jackson

872
00:45:25,039 --> 00:45:29,199
velost the ninety seventh percentile, and you got the Phillies offense,

873
00:45:29,239 --> 00:45:34,519
which is pretty good, pretty good. The Dodgers Emmachian three

874
00:45:34,519 --> 00:45:37,280
point three two ERA three point five to one expected

875
00:45:37,400 --> 00:45:41,159
one point h nine whip. His ground right ball rate

876
00:45:41,239 --> 00:45:44,559
is a concern in the seventh percentile because there are

877
00:45:44,920 --> 00:45:48,400
that's a pretty good home run hitting ballpark in La

878
00:45:49,119 --> 00:45:52,679
barrel rate ten percent hard hit twenty three. I like Emmachean,

879
00:45:53,119 --> 00:45:58,159
I do, but I'm the same thing as are the

880
00:45:58,159 --> 00:46:01,760
person who requested this game. I think Philadelphia plus money

881
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,719
here is a decent bet how often you're gonna get

882
00:46:04,760 --> 00:46:08,679
Ranger Juarez with this with this team getting them plus money,

883
00:46:09,039 --> 00:46:12,519
you can get plus up to one on one on

884
00:46:12,639 --> 00:46:17,719
nine Pinnacle right now, but as well as plus one

885
00:46:17,800 --> 00:46:20,880
hundred other places. But this is a game that got

886
00:46:20,920 --> 00:46:25,239
hit a few minutes ago. Atlanta got hit, and uh

887
00:46:26,039 --> 00:46:29,400
the Yankees a bit hit a little bit. But this one,

888
00:46:29,440 --> 00:46:32,400
if I'm going to play aside, this may be one

889
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:34,320
of them that I might take a look at. I

890
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:37,239
like Philadelphia, heir, don't be scared off with the plus

891
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:40,840
with with the small plus price. As much as alec San,

892
00:46:41,119 --> 00:46:45,679
I think the the Phillies have the better pitcher and

893
00:46:46,199 --> 00:46:48,760
the Dodgers' bullpen even though they've got all that great talent,

894
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:51,679
I don't know if I trust him, and uh, you

895
00:46:51,719 --> 00:46:55,159
know from from a bet, from a hitting standpoint, two

896
00:46:55,360 --> 00:46:59,000
very good teams, but the Dodgers have some weak spots

897
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:01,519
in that lineup were philled. This is better one through nine,

898
00:47:01,559 --> 00:47:04,559
I believe in the game probably means a little something

899
00:47:04,719 --> 00:47:07,440
for Philadelphia, even though they've racked it all up and

900
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:10,599
they've got it all tied up for the division and everything,

901
00:47:11,920 --> 00:47:15,360
they are playing the Dodgers, and that gets everybody excited. So, yeah,

902
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:16,800
somewhat like Philadelphia.

903
00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:22,360
Speaker 3: Here, what an amazing turnaround this Dodger bullpen has made.

904
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:24,519
I got them in current form. I got them they've

905
00:47:24,639 --> 00:47:26,559
they've seem to have turned things around. I got them

906
00:47:26,639 --> 00:47:30,000
ranked number nine, where I got Philly's bullpen ranked twenty

907
00:47:31,000 --> 00:47:33,239
in current form. That doesn't mean that's what their talent

908
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,639
level is. It means current form. There's a lot of

909
00:47:36,639 --> 00:47:41,719
factors that go into that meaningful. If you're playing meaningless games,

910
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:44,400
your bullpen numbers are going to suffer because you're not

911
00:47:44,679 --> 00:47:48,400
leveraging your best arms. So there's a lot of factors.

912
00:47:48,400 --> 00:47:51,239
There two teams that are hitting great. I have both

913
00:47:51,280 --> 00:47:54,360
teams in the top four in MLB in current form hitting.

914
00:47:56,239 --> 00:47:58,480
So I'm impressed with Shean as well. I mean, if

915
00:47:58,480 --> 00:48:02,280
you cover his name, I look at his his his

916
00:48:02,519 --> 00:48:04,440
three E r A with a one o nine whip,

917
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,039
you would think that this is Tyler Glass now or

918
00:48:07,079 --> 00:48:11,519
Ian Snell, not Shean. But so Dodgers have a pretty

919
00:48:11,519 --> 00:48:15,519
formidable pitcher on the mound as well. Phillies have Ranger Suarez.

920
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,960
So Suarez actually has been touched up a little bit

921
00:48:20,000 --> 00:48:22,440
against these batteries in his career, though in eighty seven

922
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:26,599
sample size at bats three thirteen average in an eight

923
00:48:26,679 --> 00:48:31,360
forty five ops. So who's doing the damage. Well, Miguel

924
00:48:31,440 --> 00:48:35,760
Rojas not the guy you would expect, and Freddy Freeman.

925
00:48:36,760 --> 00:48:38,760
A lot of guys are nine and four. We got

926
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:43,280
Mookie Betts nine and four against him, CONFORDO eight two

927
00:48:43,400 --> 00:48:47,199
for eight, and he looks like he's never faced Otani before.

928
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:53,480
So I don't know. I would lean Dodgers, but too

929
00:48:53,519 --> 00:48:56,920
close to play. Actually, I just have these you know.

930
00:48:57,000 --> 00:49:00,559
Sometimes this is why it's hard to win playoff in

931
00:49:00,719 --> 00:49:02,880
almost any league, because when you have when you have

932
00:49:03,400 --> 00:49:06,320
solid teams going against solid teams, there's less of a

933
00:49:07,239 --> 00:49:11,519
gap there. So as as as future predictors, which is

934
00:49:11,519 --> 00:49:13,800
what sports betting is is predicting the future, you want

935
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:17,159
to find these gaps between the teams where you can

936
00:49:17,159 --> 00:49:20,400
take advantage of a good price. There's less gaps when

937
00:49:20,440 --> 00:49:22,760
you have two really talented teams like this, So I

938
00:49:22,800 --> 00:49:27,280
don't only see a gap. I would probably take advantage

939
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:30,639
of Ranger Suarez's poor numbers against these battles in his

940
00:49:30,760 --> 00:49:33,960
career and go with the Dodgers. But it's not really

941
00:49:34,079 --> 00:49:35,239
enough for me to play it.

942
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:39,360
Speaker 1: TV. I know you meant to say Blake Snell, but like,

943
00:49:39,599 --> 00:49:42,320
I haven't thought about Ian Snell in forever, and I

944
00:49:42,400 --> 00:49:45,159
just I had a flashback. No, you said Ian Snell,

945
00:49:45,159 --> 00:49:48,280
and I had a flashback to those horrible Mariners teams

946
00:49:48,599 --> 00:49:50,800
that were such a good fade for like a year.

947
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:53,519
I think I think Ryan Rowland Smith like forgot how

948
00:49:53,559 --> 00:49:55,719
to pitch and you could just have like bet against

949
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,559
the Mariners every night and you made money. It was Yeah,

950
00:49:58,559 --> 00:50:00,639
I think Ian Snell, you have to go like maybe

951
00:50:00,679 --> 00:50:04,920
ten years ago Mariners why they were really bad. No,

952
00:50:05,039 --> 00:50:07,719
that's at the great great name pull right there, even

953
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:09,719
though it was unintentional. I just have not heard that

954
00:50:09,800 --> 00:50:14,599
name in a minute. But I'll tell you what to

955
00:50:14,719 --> 00:50:17,599
going back to this game going into next season, this

956
00:50:17,679 --> 00:50:20,119
is a profile. Ranger Sowars is a profile that I'm

957
00:50:20,159 --> 00:50:23,079
gonna circle. And these are the types of guys I

958
00:50:23,079 --> 00:50:25,679
think you just want to bet on because they get there.

959
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:30,039
They're criminally undervalued in Major League Baseball today. What do

960
00:50:30,079 --> 00:50:32,519
I mean by that. It's a guy that has command,

961
00:50:32,559 --> 00:50:36,000
it's a starting pitcher that doesn't throw particularly hard, so

962
00:50:36,039 --> 00:50:38,880
they're not flashy, so they don't they might not have

963
00:50:39,639 --> 00:50:44,400
crazy strikeout numbers. The books. They're not everyone's favorite pitcher

964
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:47,280
when it comes to props and stuff like that, but

965
00:50:47,320 --> 00:50:50,480
they have command of all five of their pitches and

966
00:50:50,519 --> 00:50:52,559
they throw them all. Well, there's no holes, there's no

967
00:50:52,679 --> 00:50:55,199
pitch that you can really sit on. You look at it.

968
00:50:55,320 --> 00:50:57,960
Ranger soars as fast, what as you throw ninety one

969
00:50:58,440 --> 00:51:01,320
ninety ninety one miles an hour on the but he's

970
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:03,880
using it as a show me pitch. He throws it

971
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:06,679
fifteen percent of the time, and he's really only using

972
00:51:06,679 --> 00:51:10,280
it to say, you know, look at this. It's he's

973
00:51:10,360 --> 00:51:12,039
never throwing it in an area where you can do

974
00:51:12,079 --> 00:51:16,280
anything with it. And then it's basically singer, change, cutter, curve,

975
00:51:16,320 --> 00:51:19,119
and he can throw them all for strikes and today's

976
00:51:19,159 --> 00:51:23,440
hitter just does not can't hit that because today's hitter

977
00:51:23,519 --> 00:51:26,360
does is not Tony Gwynn, right, who in this worst

978
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:29,599
season hit two ninety I think is that correct. I

979
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:32,159
think that's accurate. I think like the worst stretch of

980
00:51:32,199 --> 00:51:34,880
his career, this worst one hundred and sixty two game stretch,

981
00:51:34,920 --> 00:51:36,960
he hit close to three hundred. And you just don't

982
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:40,400
have hitters that approach the game like that anymore. And

983
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:45,000
it's making these types of pitchers very underrated. Kyle Hendricks

984
00:51:45,079 --> 00:51:46,719
might be like one of the best points of this

985
00:51:46,840 --> 00:51:48,519
what we've talked about him on the show, where it's

986
00:51:48,559 --> 00:51:51,199
like you have guys that like they should be getting

987
00:51:51,239 --> 00:51:54,239
crushed by big league hitters, but big league hitters don't

988
00:51:54,239 --> 00:51:57,239
go up there with this approach of like, I just

989
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,159
want to do anything possible to get on base, put

990
00:52:00,199 --> 00:52:02,519
the ball in play, moving along to the next guy.

991
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:04,599
And then you get a guy like Ranger Swarz who

992
00:52:04,639 --> 00:52:08,039
throws ninety but it's like he can put the ball

993
00:52:08,039 --> 00:52:11,119
where he wants and all of these lineups or every

994
00:52:11,119 --> 00:52:14,159
big like look at his numbers, look at the underlying numbers.

995
00:52:14,199 --> 00:52:17,119
It's it's all red. It's all really good. So it's like,

996
00:52:17,559 --> 00:52:19,639
there's no way I'm betting against him, and there's no

997
00:52:19,679 --> 00:52:22,000
way I'm laying a price to bet against him. So

998
00:52:22,039 --> 00:52:25,559
to go back to the initial comment, Mark Martin, why

999
00:52:25,559 --> 00:52:28,159
would you lay a price to fade that? Right? Like,

1000
00:52:28,199 --> 00:52:30,000
I could only bet the Phillies here, and I do

1001
00:52:30,119 --> 00:52:32,480
like she and TV like I like him as well,

1002
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:35,039
So maybe you could look at the under but why

1003
00:52:35,039 --> 00:52:38,079
would you lay a price to to fade someone like Swarz?

1004
00:52:38,119 --> 00:52:39,440
Go ahead, DD.

1005
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:42,559
Speaker 3: I can't let you disrespect Tony Gwinn like that. His

1006
00:52:42,639 --> 00:52:44,880
career batting average was three thirty eight.

1007
00:52:45,320 --> 00:52:46,880
Speaker 1: Yes, I know, I'm saying.

1008
00:52:46,840 --> 00:52:49,800
Speaker 2: The worst sixty two games, worst.

1009
00:52:49,559 --> 00:52:51,559
Speaker 1: One sixty two game stretch of his career. He still

1010
00:52:51,599 --> 00:52:53,039
hit like two ninety one Like that.

1011
00:52:53,039 --> 00:52:57,199
Speaker 3: Is an amazing He was an amazing, amazing batter, the

1012
00:52:57,199 --> 00:52:59,320
best batter I've ever seen in my life.

1013
00:52:59,480 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 2: Hands, we're getting down to a guy who have not

1014
00:53:02,119 --> 00:53:05,280
any plays yet, so let let me uh, let me

1015
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:07,199
go off the board here. I'm gonna take a look

1016
00:53:07,199 --> 00:53:11,559
at this Cub's Pittsburgh game tie on against Ashcraft. Tie

1017
00:53:11,599 --> 00:53:13,320
on right now is about a one to fifteen one

1018
00:53:13,360 --> 00:53:18,079
twenty favorite Ashcraft eight and I am going to play

1019
00:53:20,840 --> 00:53:24,199
the Chicago Cubs team total under four and a half here,

1020
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,519
the wins blowing in slightly six miles an how or

1021
00:53:27,519 --> 00:53:29,920
not not a lot, But this is a very good

1022
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:32,320
pitcher's park the Cubs. If you go back to the

1023
00:53:32,519 --> 00:53:36,760
last ten games I believe they've gone, they've scored five

1024
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,239
runs or less in either six or seven of the ten.

1025
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,800
They're going without their best hitter. He's on the I

1026
00:53:43,039 --> 00:53:46,599
L again, and I really like Ashcraft going for going

1027
00:53:46,599 --> 00:53:51,199
for Pittsburgh, and we also have a Pittsburgh bullpen that

1028
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:55,079
is available. Braxton Ashcraft two point four to seven e

1029
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:57,960
ra A three point five one expected one point two whip,

1030
00:53:58,559 --> 00:54:01,840
great barrel percentage ninety seven percentile, great ground ball. Right,

1031
00:54:02,480 --> 00:54:05,039
he doesn't give up a lot of hard hits. I'm

1032
00:54:05,079 --> 00:54:08,360
going to play the Chicago Cubs team total under four

1033
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:11,679
and a half and lay the one forty.

1034
00:54:11,880 --> 00:54:13,800
Speaker 3: Should I continue with this game? No?

1035
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:15,800
Speaker 1: We have time? Yeah, continue with this game. What do

1036
00:54:15,800 --> 00:54:17,119
you got clubs Pirates TV?

1037
00:54:17,559 --> 00:54:23,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, another real tight game between these two. I got

1038
00:54:23,159 --> 00:54:26,400
the Cubs hitting better and a better bullpen. Actually, the

1039
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:28,679
Cubs I have in current form. I have their bullpen

1040
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:32,320
ranks number two in MLB. But Brian's right, Ashcraft has

1041
00:54:32,360 --> 00:54:36,079
been amazing. My numbers love him and the Cubs hitting

1042
00:54:36,199 --> 00:54:39,079
despite being higher than Pittsburgh, I still have them ranked

1043
00:54:39,119 --> 00:54:42,000
eighteen in current form. So if you take a picture,

1044
00:54:42,039 --> 00:54:46,039
who's performing this well against the number eighteen lineup? I

1045
00:54:46,079 --> 00:54:50,480
certainly would not disagree with Brian's team total under there.

1046
00:54:53,119 --> 00:54:56,039
Speaker 1: Yeah. I've said this pretty much all year since he

1047
00:54:56,119 --> 00:55:00,199
came up. Big fan of Braxton Ashcraft. I think the Pirates. Actually,

1048
00:55:00,199 --> 00:55:03,079
I was confused why they wanted him pitching out of

1049
00:55:03,119 --> 00:55:05,320
the bullpen when they called him up. But I actually

1050
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:09,320
really think it helped him a ton. I think it

1051
00:55:09,480 --> 00:55:12,559
like I think it showed him what his max sort

1052
00:55:12,599 --> 00:55:14,639
of potential is because they were putting him in a

1053
00:55:14,639 --> 00:55:16,960
situation where it was like, hey, go out three or

1054
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:20,599
four innings, throw hard and and I think they're doing

1055
00:55:20,639 --> 00:55:22,519
the same thing with Bubba Chandler to an extent, or

1056
00:55:22,519 --> 00:55:26,039
at least they tried to. So I really am a

1057
00:55:26,079 --> 00:55:28,400
fan of Ashcraft. Another reason I'm a fan of him

1058
00:55:28,440 --> 00:55:32,159
is he's he's kind of gotten maybe a little bit,

1059
00:55:32,280 --> 00:55:34,159
like well, at least you know, when he was in

1060
00:55:34,199 --> 00:55:36,239
the minors and stuff and coming up, when you got

1061
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:38,440
guys like Schemes and Chandler and you have all these

1062
00:55:38,480 --> 00:55:41,239
pitching prospects, he was forgotten about a little bit. And

1063
00:55:41,239 --> 00:55:44,440
he's arguably he's as good as anyone else in that organization.

1064
00:55:44,519 --> 00:55:47,280
In any other organization, he would be probably the top

1065
00:55:47,320 --> 00:55:49,760
guy in the minors. So I think he's been able

1066
00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:51,639
to fly under the radar a little bit. Maybe not

1067
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:54,280
so much now, but there's still value when you play

1068
00:55:54,320 --> 00:55:56,760
a team like the Cubs. As Brian said, the Cubs,

1069
00:55:57,000 --> 00:55:59,719
they haven't really hit since the All Star break, so

1070
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:02,400
why expect them to hit now against the guy that's

1071
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:05,480
done really nothing but throw the ball great the second

1072
00:56:05,519 --> 00:56:07,599
half of the season. I think Ashcraft is a stud.

1073
00:56:08,559 --> 00:56:10,599
I just think to what this Pirate's rotation could be

1074
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:14,320
next year. It's you know, you could have Skis, Ashcrat, Chandler,

1075
00:56:14,599 --> 00:56:17,320
Jared Jones. I mean, my god, like this team should

1076
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:20,000
be awesome next year. And it's It's been part of

1077
00:56:20,039 --> 00:56:23,519
my point this whole, like September, was your two spoilers

1078
00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:25,599
for me were gonna be the Orioles and the Pirates,

1079
00:56:25,639 --> 00:56:28,960
teams that were gonna be way better than like where

1080
00:56:28,960 --> 00:56:31,679
their market price was. I kind of see that today.

1081
00:56:31,960 --> 00:56:36,400
I make the Pirates a slight favorite here, so I'm fine.

1082
00:56:36,639 --> 00:56:39,760
I very much agree with with Brian's assessment of this,

1083
00:56:39,880 --> 00:56:42,760
and his number on team total under is likely better

1084
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:44,719
than Pirates plus one and a half, which is like

1085
00:56:44,800 --> 00:56:46,519
minus one fifty. So I think you found a good

1086
00:56:46,519 --> 00:56:48,559
way to play it as well. What juice are you

1087
00:56:48,599 --> 00:56:49,519
looking for right there?

1088
00:56:49,840 --> 00:56:53,000
Speaker 2: Minus one forty can get cheaper, but most of them

1089
00:56:53,079 --> 00:56:55,719
right now are at minus one forty.

1090
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:57,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, and if you can't listen, I mean if you

1091
00:56:57,360 --> 00:57:00,960
can't play a team total under in a parlay. You're

1092
00:57:01,039 --> 00:57:03,039
roughly the same price if you if you went Pirates

1093
00:57:03,039 --> 00:57:05,039
plus one and a half, it's like minus one fifty.

1094
00:57:05,559 --> 00:57:07,440
That's the way I would play it personally, but I'm not.

1095
00:57:07,559 --> 00:57:11,559
I'm by no means am I disagreeing with It's basically

1096
00:57:11,559 --> 00:57:14,199
the same bet. In my opinion. You need Ashcraft to

1097
00:57:14,239 --> 00:57:15,840
pitch well if you will if you like the Pirates,

1098
00:57:16,079 --> 00:57:18,159
and you need Ashcraft to pitch well if you're gonna

1099
00:57:18,199 --> 00:57:22,239
hit that Cubs team total under. Okay, TV, I've already

1100
00:57:22,239 --> 00:57:23,559
do you know what game you want to put in

1101
00:57:23,559 --> 00:57:25,840
the pilat, because we've already talked about my legs, so

1102
00:57:26,039 --> 00:57:26,599
I'll go to you.

1103
00:57:27,559 --> 00:57:32,199
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would like to do my leg in the

1104
00:57:32,400 --> 00:57:36,280
Yankees Twins game. I'm gonna cheat and be a cheap

1105
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:38,559
ass again. I'm gonna take the Yankees here at minus

1106
00:57:38,639 --> 00:57:42,400
one ninety on the money line. I like Rodon a

1107
00:57:42,519 --> 00:57:46,960
lot better than I like Woods. Richardson or yeah that's

1108
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:50,679
his name, Okay, I don't need I forgot if it's Richardson,

1109
00:57:50,719 --> 00:57:53,119
Woods or something. It's like he's it's like he's a

1110
00:57:53,280 --> 00:58:00,920
Hillary Rodham Quinton or something. Anyways, I mean Richardson's woods.

1111
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:04,000
Richardson has not not been good all despite his six

1112
00:58:04,159 --> 00:58:06,360
four record, He's still has a one three nine whip.

1113
00:58:07,480 --> 00:58:12,079
Just don't like it. And uh, I think has been pitching,

1114
00:58:13,039 --> 00:58:15,840
you know, in a second, I'm getting a okay, Radone's

1115
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,440
been pitching just lights out. I mean, he's been great.

1116
00:58:19,320 --> 00:58:22,519
The one thing that that alarms me a little bit

1117
00:58:22,519 --> 00:58:24,719
here is Rodon is not a really good road pitcher.

1118
00:58:24,800 --> 00:58:30,440
Speaker 1: But I don't think that'll be much of a.

1119
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:32,679
Speaker 4: Deterren here because he's just he's just been so good,

1120
00:58:33,519 --> 00:58:36,519
even even though his road numbers are worse than his

1121
00:58:36,599 --> 00:58:40,119
home numbers, is still three three four eras pretty good stuff.

1122
00:58:40,519 --> 00:58:43,360
I know, eras on the tell alls that, but I

1123
00:58:43,360 --> 00:58:47,800
mean it's a good indication about how how well I

1124
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:50,119
got some weird video playing here.

1125
00:58:50,280 --> 00:58:52,519
Speaker 3: Let me turn it out there we go. So in

1126
00:58:52,559 --> 00:58:55,960
his career against these batters, forty five that bats against,

1127
00:58:56,320 --> 00:58:59,519
he's got a one fifty six average and a four

1128
00:58:59,639 --> 00:59:02,239
thirty one ops against in forty five at that. So

1129
00:59:02,280 --> 00:59:05,119
that's pretty good stuff. Yankees are just a better team,

1130
00:59:05,159 --> 00:59:07,199
and they're kind of on a roll here despite getting

1131
00:59:07,199 --> 00:59:10,159
crushed by Boston. I did have Boston yesterday, by the way,

1132
00:59:10,239 --> 00:59:15,320
but I think the Yankees bounce back here, Parley, I'll

1133
00:59:15,320 --> 00:59:17,119
take minus one ninety. That's fine with me.

1134
00:59:18,679 --> 00:59:20,880
Speaker 1: Colin says it's his play of the day. You're not

1135
00:59:20,880 --> 00:59:22,559
going to get any argue for me there. I mean,

1136
00:59:22,599 --> 00:59:26,000
obviously the juice is high on just them to win,

1137
00:59:26,079 --> 00:59:28,800
but you're putting in a parlay no argument for me.

1138
00:59:29,239 --> 00:59:31,920
I have a pretty big, big edge to the Yankees

1139
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:34,480
there as well. I'll close it out with the Rangers.

1140
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:36,199
That was kind of how I was going to go.

1141
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:38,559
I wanted to see how the rest of the show

1142
00:59:38,599 --> 00:59:42,440
played out. But I really think the Rangers are the

1143
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:46,760
correct side here. I think Jason Alexander is going to

1144
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:49,159
get pummeled at the big league level at some point,

1145
00:59:49,400 --> 00:59:51,679
and even if he doesn't, I still like where Lighter

1146
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:54,599
is going. So, Brian, are we still looking out like

1147
00:59:54,599 --> 00:59:55,360
plus one ten.

1148
00:59:55,239 --> 00:59:58,320
Speaker 2: For the Rangers'pecally plus one ten, there's a couple of

1149
00:59:58,599 --> 01:00:02,000
four teens and there's alt so some plus one o

1150
01:00:02,079 --> 01:00:03,599
four so plus mon ten's about it.

1151
01:00:03,559 --> 01:00:06,480
Speaker 1: I have a feeling they I have a feeling the

1152
01:00:06,559 --> 01:00:08,599
Rangers might take some money throughout the day as well.

1153
01:00:08,719 --> 01:00:10,840
I want to be surprised if that went off closer

1154
01:00:10,880 --> 01:00:13,519
to even money, so TB, I'll I'll balance off the

1155
01:00:13,840 --> 01:00:17,639
Yankees' favorite a little bit with some plus money and

1156
01:00:18,119 --> 01:00:21,480
we are right like, very big couple weeks for us

1157
01:00:21,519 --> 01:00:25,239
coming up here. We are pretty much dead even on

1158
01:00:25,320 --> 01:00:28,079
parlays this year after we lost on Friday, so we

1159
01:00:28,199 --> 01:00:30,639
got to have a big week on the parlays at

1160
01:00:30,679 --> 01:00:32,400
least hit a couple to keep us in the plus

1161
01:00:32,400 --> 01:00:36,480
for the year. And this one, I just want to

1162
01:00:36,480 --> 01:00:39,320
make sure I've got this correct. So this one comes

1163
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,760
out to plus four fifty four, so really not that

1164
01:00:41,840 --> 01:00:44,679
bad considering we've got a nice sizeable favorite with the

1165
01:00:44,760 --> 01:00:48,840
Yankees in there. Plus four fifty four is pretty solid,

1166
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:51,239
and I will read that off one more time. To

1167
01:00:51,239 --> 01:00:54,480
close out the show, we have Brian Leonard Cubbs team

1168
01:00:54,519 --> 01:00:58,280
total under four and a half, Tokyo Brandon says Yankees

1169
01:00:58,360 --> 01:01:01,320
minus one eighty five, and then I'm gonna go with

1170
01:01:01,400 --> 01:01:04,000
Rangers plus one ten. So you've got three full game

1171
01:01:04,039 --> 01:01:08,440
bets Rangers, Yankees, Cubs team total under four and a half.

1172
01:01:08,840 --> 01:01:11,639
Hopefully we kick off the week the fact that we

1173
01:01:11,719 --> 01:01:15,039
have a thousand people in here live watching major League

1174
01:01:15,039 --> 01:01:18,880
baseball and football seasons as started is awesome. We love that.

1175
01:01:19,159 --> 01:01:22,480
Let's keep that energy up through the playoffs. We're not

1176
01:01:22,559 --> 01:01:25,320
going anywhere. We'll be back tomorrow morning, nine am Eastern.

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We all have plays up on the site. Go over

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to the replay if you've missed any of the show,

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as always, go to the replay and on the Ranger

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Talk YouTube channel. While you're there, maybe drop us alike

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and a subscribe. Hope everyone has a great Monday. We

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will see you guys back nine am tomorrow morning. More

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total bases