Speaker 1: It a Fantasy podcast network presents in a world of
football podcast that sounds like this.
Speaker 2: Welcome into our podcast on Suck Talk Radio and.
Speaker 1: Talk like bigs wah what.
Speaker 2: Don't go off the wedding earth work because they're not
so much fun. Must not overreact here in This League
Fantasy Football Podcast featuring.
Speaker 1: Bug the Yummie Silence. Oh it tastes so good you
get all the props go to you. You're amazing. It
is the way the well and the well.
Speaker 2: I would give somebody twenty dollars if Antonio Kates goes
before you two picks playing on iTunes, Stitcher, SoundCloud into
that's like four dollars in America. Now because of the
brexits coming to your ears. Now, what's up? Friendos are
welcome into the End This League Fantasy Football Podcast with
Scott Bogman and the Welsh that is us. Today we
are finishing out our primer series on ranks using Expert
Consensus ranks. We have talked about running backs, We've talked
about wide receivers. We've compared against projections and the ECR
getting you set creating a baseline for what the positions
and fantasy are going to look like this year and
today we are finishing off with a combo not Taco
Bell Pizza hut, but a quarterback tight end grouping where
we will go through the top ish end quarterbacks and
what tight ends are looking like, projections, a little bit
of sprinkle in on Bogman's ranks. That's what we've got
in store for you. If you guys would like to
see Bogman's ranks, ooh, he'll show you yours if you
showed him your wallet. Go to inn this league dot com.
Sign up today in this league dot com, get on
the Patreon. You can check out Bogmin's ranks from IDP
to Superflex. There's Dynasty, there's Redraft. You can see what
he's got going on. Mine should be up at the
very beginning of July if you care about that. So
lots of different ranks. Plus you can be a part
of all of the conversation if you' joining the group
me rooms. People are starting up leagues, they're talking through
a lot of people, are you know, jumping in and
answering questions like a discord, Like a discord is Group
Me's just a little bit different, a little bit more
tech based. We keep it like that. Plus, you can
be a part of mock drafts that we do never
know if we're starting up leagues and stuff like that.
Be a part of the action. Support your boys, support
the Fantasy Football Podcast. That is what you're doing when
you sign up in this league dot com, in this
league dot com, in this league dot com.
Speaker 1: Those rankings are going to be getting a fresh coat
this weekend as well. I've been spending last couple of
weeks writing my IDP primer for the Fantasy Pros Draft Guide,
so I've been spending a lot of time on the
IDP side. So I'm going to flip this weekend. And
I don't think I'll have too many adjustments obviously on
the IDP siditarian Arnold, you know adjustment, good Lord, in
a couple others. So but yeah, you'll be doing it
this weekend.
Speaker 2: After the World Cup where Bogwin's going a little bit
of World Cup.
Speaker 1: That's right. I'm gonna scratch this off the bucket list,
and it's Cape Verde versus Saudi Arabia, the most popular
game you've ever seen. Well, I'll tell you what. I
wasn't sure how popular this game in particular would be,
and apparently it is going to be extremely popular.
Speaker 2: Oh you saw the Reselle value, Yeah, craze, Okay, yeah,
okay to to buy?
Speaker 1: Who is this?
Speaker 2: Camp Verde? Camp Verde is a town in Phoenix too.
Speaker 1: If Cape Verde is a it has a population of
six hundred thousand. They speak Portuguese. I've looked them up.
By the way, you want to know who you're going
to be, who you're rooting for. I honestly do not care.
I just want to see how crazy it gets. Like
I've you know, I've been in a lot of big environments.
I've never been to a Super Bowl, but I've been
to a World Series. I've been at the Draft, I've
been in the All Star Game. I've been to a
lot of Bowl games. So I've seen a lot of
like big sports environments. So I'm very curious to see
what the World Cup is like and uh, you know,
the fans and all that. I think it's just going
to be I think it's going to be a great time.
So I'm pretty excited to go.
Speaker 2: You're definitely more cultured in that respect because I think
my two biggest are I've been to a game deciding
World Series and then I've been to WrestleMania. I've also
been to Royal Rumble, which you've been to as well.
Speaker 1: But forgot was that both that WrestleMania and Royal Rumble
with you? Yeah?
Speaker 2: Not so not only have you done all of those
things I said, but you've been to All Star games.
You also you not only have got to bowl games.
You were on the field at the goal line of
a Texas Bowl game where where one of the players
ran up to you with your camera after they scored
a touchdown. Like you've had some definitely biggest queen yours
quin yours. That's right.
Speaker 1: So I guess we will not talk about him today
outside of this.
Speaker 2: No, you won't not be on here. But yeah, World
Cup is on that list, so after the fact, you
guys will know the results. But Bogman has the covered there,
so hopefully you guys go and check it out with.
Speaker 1: The first time at NRG Stadium too. I have not
gone to NRG since I don't know that that's why
the Texans play. Oh okay, yeah, so I just I
haven't been there. I did read that there are conditioning
works very well, keep the inside about seventy to seventy
four maybe CJ.
Speaker 2: Strout will be there to watch the game. Maybe most
games attended will be the weren't me at Pelief in
Lone Roads at a World Cup game recently? I believe
maybe as an NBA may also I think that was
an AI. Think it's been an AI trend. Sure, yeah,
I think that's going on. But she does live in Houston, Tallas.
One of our Austin that's one of our friends, was
friends with her and would hang out. It was in
not that type of hangout, but was in Austin.
Speaker 1: So there you go.
Speaker 2: All right, Today we are going to be talking again
about the quarterback and tight end ranks. I've got projections.
So we will look at not only the Expert Consensus Rank,
which obviously is fifty plus rankers that put their ranks
in preseason draft ranks on Fantasy Pros, and the ECR
creates kind of a just an overall consensus that's pretty
easy to understand. And then there's a projection system, a
consensus projection system. We're using that as the baseline. Bogman
will have some variations. This isn't supposed to be our
ranks episode. This is just for you to understand the position.
So we'll be talking about the ranks, not going nuts
about where they're placed, but maybe having a couple you know,
conversation pieces around some of these players. Probably you know,
we'll get into like the fifteen plus of the quarterbacks,
the remain guys that you're taking same thing on tight ends.
You know, Tier three for Fantasy pros goes to fifteen
tight ends. That'll kind of be where the discussion relatively
stops in cases a couple other things. So that's what
we're going to be getting set for. So strap in,
let's not waste any more time. You guys already know
what to do. Go to in this league. Dot com,
support your boys, follow us on Twitter is the wels
Bogman Sports. You want to have more interaction there, you
can do that. Otherwise, let's take a break. When we
come back, we're going to start up with quarterbacks. What
does the ECR and tier look like? Look at some projections,
and then we will jump to tight ends. We'll do
it all right after this. It's in this league, no
one ask you anything ever. So whomever's in this league,
I don't you take a letter opener name quarterback ranks.
DC are looking at the tiers.
Speaker 1: This is what we've got.
Speaker 2: So my company, our company, Fantasy Pros, with the ECR here,
we definitely can have a conversation about the overarching I mean,
I feel like it's always the same thing. It's like,
you know, top tier tight ends or quarterbacks are great.
Other than that, wait and get value. Probably not much
has changed there tight ends. I feel a lot more
pressed from people. We'll talk about it, I guess in
a tiny bit, but people like ha Fitz Morris and
you there's a lot of people are more like I
want the top tier tight end more than ever, don't
want to screw around, and maybe even last year pushed
to that. But we'll get there. Going to quarterbacks though,
quarterbacks one through three are a tier on Fantasy Pros.
This is i mean, pretty close to last year, except
obviously the new addition. But Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, they
just kind of live here. They're in this spot. Josh
Allen is number one, Lamar Jackson is number two, but
Drake May comes in as number three. That is the
top tier. Last season, Josh Allen scored the most points
per game with twenty two. Drake May was number two
with twenty one point one. Though Lamar Jackson only played
thirteen games. We don't care about his total Fantasy points.
He did only average seventeen point one Fantasy points per game.
Most passing yards goes to Drake May over almost forty
four hundred, thirty almost thirty seven hundred for Josh Allen,
twenty five hundred in the thirteen games for Lamar Jackson.
Touchdowns passing goes to Drake May with thirty one. Josh
Allen had twenty five, Lamar Jackson twenty one in a
short amount of games. And Lamar Jackson also had the
lowest interceptions, but Drake mainly had eight, also impressive, and
on the rushing side, it actually went to Josh Allen,
not Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson didn't miss a significant significant
amount of games that this number should be so low
if we're being honest, only.
Speaker 1: Three had a lot.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I guess that's what it was. It took away
from there, but five seventy nine to Josh Allen, four
point fifty to Drake May and three forty nine to
Lamar Jackson. Lamar scored no rushing touchdowns last year, and
everything was Josh Allener's fourteen rushing touchdowns so that is
the lay of the land on this setup. I'll talk
about projections. Boggs, what do you think about this? Is
this a true tier one where all three of them
are interchangeable. I think your ranks are pretty similar to it.
What do you think about this top tier of quarterbacks
and do you want to own one of them knowing
what the cost is going to be, which is going
to be relatively high.
Speaker 1: I mean probably not because I also include Joe Burrow
and jayde Daniels in this tier. So I probably would
rather roster one of those guys because I know the
cost is going to be down because they aren't in
this tier and I have them in this tier. But
I think getting a upper tier quarterback is a fine
strategy still. But like you said earlier, if we're doing
the bit between, you're either taking a high end quarterback
or a high end tight end because you don't want
to do hashtag top tier players. You want to get
depth running BA and wide receiver. I'm picking tight end still,
so I just think quarterback is just deeper. Although I
do think tight end is deeper, and I think it's
more even this year. I was more on the tight
end train last year. Obviously it didn't work out with
rock Bowers being number one because he got hurt, but
I still would rather have a top tier tight end
and than a top tier quarterback in a non super
flex lead.
Speaker 2: So technically, if we're looking at like the overall ranks
the ECR not just positionally they all are. Technically if
you're playing in a twelve team, we're going to just
assume that for a second and not super flex. This
changes in super flex if you're just looking at single
quarterback twelve team. Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Drake May
are all third round picks, but Josh Allen Costu almost
the very tippy top of the first round. Drake May
is at the very back thirty five overall, and then
there's a little bit of a gap which is telling
us you could get Joe Burrow kind of in like
the mid fourth, and then you if you having if
you're having Jaden Daniels in there, Jayden Daniels is roughly
like a fifth rounder, fifth to sixth rounder. So like
I think by virtue of the value standpoint, you're gonna
have a lot more of Daniels. Do you think there's
something to consider though, when Burrow and May or that close.
Because I'm going to tell you about projections here in
a second, which work in favor. Do you think Drake
May is to me, he's like if I were a
deal pool. Yeah, He's kind of the guy where it's
like if I could risk getting him in the beginning
of the fourth or you know, early third, that's kind
of the thing that's like enticing to me if if
I were to play in that pool, that would be
the one guy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, And look, I think Drake May is going to
have a great year. I will say that there are
some people that probably push him too fast and expect,
you know, the repeatability from the easy schedule and all
that from last season, which I would probably pump the
brakes on a little bit. But the addition of AJ
Brown is enormous for Drake May, so I think they
kind of counteract each other. So that's why I still
have Drake May as a top three quarterback and I
have no issue drafting him. He's going to be outstanding. Again,
I do think that the path is going to be
a little harder, but I think AJ Brown equals that out.
Speaker 2: So here's a really interesting thing in there's a lot
of cool things here in the projections. If you care
about this. First off, Josh Allen is number one of
the projections, but he is so much more than the
next guy. It's not funny. It's three seventy two projected
points for Josh Allen. Drake May comes in at number
two at a projected three twenty six, So that's roughly
forty five forty eight points something. We're in that range.
Do you think Josh Allen is a forty plus point
differential from the next guy, because then you're starting to
get into kind of a little bit of Joe's RPV
the position value type of thing. Where is he is
he truly that much more valuable than the next quarterback
in your mind?
Speaker 1: I don't. I don't think he'll finish this season forty
points ahead of the next guy. But I'll say that
if there's a likelihood for one player to do it,
it is Josh Allen by a lot. Right. We are
like Lamar had the injury stuff last year. So if
we want to start saying, Okay, maybe Lamar is getting older,
maybe he's not gonna run as much, there's holes to poke.
I feel like in everybody else except Josh Allen. Josh
Allen gets the same offense with a better wide receiving
corps this season, right, You get Dj Moore, you get
Dalton k and Kaid presumably more healthy. You add Skyler
Bell to this mix as well. So I really like
Josh Allen is definitely number one to me by a
decent margin, not enough to put him in his own tier.
Like I said, I don't think he's gonna outscore people
by forty points for the season, but I think the
consistency puts him there.
Speaker 2: Projections due which is interesting. He's projected thirty eight hundred
passing yards, twenty seven and a half touchdowns, eleven picks, whatever,
but almost six hundred rushing yards and twelve rushing touchdowns.
So that's the rushing touchdowns is the marker that goes
kind of ballistic. Drake may is projected for the most
between these three, the most pass attempts, most yards, four
thy sixty one, twenty eight touchdowns, ten picks, five hundred
rushing yards and just around four rushing touchdowns.
Speaker 1: So we could easily see his rushing like his touchdowns
could go way up because he runs as well. They
just didn't.
Speaker 2: That was that was kind of the thing last year though,
I remember like fits and his credit and it's kind
of funny. Fitz was kind of doing the like, Hey,
Drake May is gonna pop because I think you're gonna
see a lot more design run plays. We actually really didn't,
but it was everything else. He was so much more efficient.
It was like it was the thing that Fitzy was
want to score early, Like yeah, and if that were
to change this year, I think Drake May is capable
of it, but they don't seem to scheme the offense,
and that especially because of how proficient of a he is.
I don't know if it gets to that level, but
there is the potential. Lamar Jackson is projected number three,
So here's the next one. I was saying, like, there's
some cool, fun stuff in here. This is what I
think is interesting, Lamar. And to your point, Lamar Jackson
is projected as a third quarterback. But Jadon Daniels in
the projections is not only the fourth projected quarterback, he's
point zero one points away from Lamar Jackson. So if
you were to buy into that wi old value change
where Lamar is going inside the top thirty. Jade Daniels
almost go outside the top sixty. Lamar Jackson projected thirty
six hundred yards, twenty eight touchdowns under ten picks around
six one hundred and fifty yards. They are low projecting
the rushing touchdowns, but you know there's a Derrick Henry thing.
Speaker 1: I guess.
Speaker 2: Jaden Daniels is projected for a few more passing yards
twenty four touchdowns, which is less more rushing yards than
Lamar Jackson, and more rushing touchdowns six't eighty five with
four point seven, So that kind of speaks to you.
So Lamar Jackson is number three, but there's a point
zero one differential between three and four quarterbacks, and then
a flight note the fifth quarterback is two points projected
lower than Jaydon Daniels, and that quarterback is not Joe Burrow,
that is Jalen Hurts. So just any thoughts on the
Lamar Jackson Jayden Daniels close differential.
Speaker 1: I mean, it makes sense. And the reason that I
put those five in my Tier one is because I
think these are the five quarterbacks capable of finishing as
QB one this year, Like these are the five that
I would bet money on to do it. But I
think it's fair to have Daniels at five, even though
the points separator is so small because of the injuries
he's coming off of. Joe Burrow has a history of injuries,
and of course we saw a lot of Joe Flacco
in Sincy last year as well, So maybe even those
guys should be in a tier of their own because
of their recent injury history, right, And I just can't
every time I watch Jane Daniels play, he's so good,
he's so much fun to watch, but I all, like
Fitz said this one time, and it just plays in
the back of my brain. He runs around like a
crash test Tommy and he absolutely does right. Like he
is like just so one for why Brandon Ayuk wants
to play with him, He's just so one for one
as an RG three comparison, it's kind of crazy. Like
I do think that JD's career is going to end
faster than it should because of an injury, because he
runs like crazy and he's got a you know, he's
got a slim frame for the NFL.
Speaker 2: So very interesting, very interesting for there going into the
next tier of quarterbacks. Ecr's got it is five, so
it is Joe Burrow. We mentioned it four, Jade Daniels
at five, Jalen Hurts is at six, followed by Kayleb
Williams at seven, and Justin Herbert. So that's where that
grouping ends. Uh, Jaden Daniels and Jalen Hurts are literally
next to each other on the overall ranks, So you know,
Burrow's a little bit ahead. I think Danielson Hurts are
in a tier. Then it goes Caleb after a little bit,
and then Herbert a little bit. Looking statistically at them,
you had from a points per game perspective, Jalen Hurts
was actually the number one on the points per game side.
He didn't miss one. He didn't play one game. Kind
of an interesting thing to think about. I'm not a
big Jalen Hurts guy, but now you take aj Brown
out of it, and it's like, is he gonna just
run more? You know, he's gonna just just tuck the
ball and just go a little bit more. He had
the most. Caleb Williams was point one away. He also
had nineteen projected points. Herbert was number three, followed by
Joe Burrow and then Jayden Daniels. That's a points per
game so not focusing on the overall points. From a
passing yards perspective, Caleb Williams was the leader at thirty
nine hundred. Justin Herbert was right below him at thirty
seven hundred. He did play one less game everybody else.
It's kind of a mess most touchdowns passing touchdowns maybe
or actually that was number three on there, but very close.
Caleb Williams is number one at twenty seven. Si to Herbert,
I was going to say, I'm actually surprised that the
Jalen Hurts one with twenty six. I forgot how close
that was. Joe Burrow was a seventeen and five seventeen touchdowns,
five picks in eight games, so he probably would have
projected on a full season that would have gone into
the mid thirties, and that would have put him closer.
I mean, that probably would have been the league lead
if frankly her that would have been right next to
who is at Jared Goff who had thirty Well, actually
Stafford led the way. Jared Goff had thirty four, so
he would have been like number two on the rushing
side here. Jalen Hurts for twenty one. He led the
way with over one hundred carries Justin Herbert, actually I
had the most yards. I keep screwing this up four
ninety eight as I'm trying to scroll back and forth.
He was the leader four hundred for Hurts, three eighty
three for Kleb Williams. Everybody else was lower and the
most rushing touchdowns Jalen Hurts with eight, which is actually
kind of a down for a Jalen Hurt season. So
that's the structure of all of these guys. You actually
have almost everybody the same rank as ECR except for
one pair that you swap.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's WT Caleb Williams Justin Herbert. But I have
them in the same tier. And the difference to me
is that Caleb Williams is going to his second season
with Ben Johnson. He keeps the same main role players.
DJ Moore is gone, but him and DJ Moore famously
did not connect very well. So you're gonna see more
Colson Lovelum or Roma Dun'sday or Luther Burden this year.
I think that's all going to be great for him.
In the second year with Ben Johnson, I think it's
going to take a nice step. Justin Herbert's still great.
The upside is still enormous. Like I said, I still
only have them one spot different. The difference is justin
Herbert has, you know, a new offense to learn. So
I think that's the slight bump towards Caleb Williams is
why I have that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I feel like he's probably the most polarizing of
all these players. I don't know about you. I feel
like there's an inherent like concern about what Herbert's going
to be with McDaniel there, and like, you know, are
they going to get more run heavy and maybe short ballfield?
Like I mean, maybe that's just being overplayed. But Caleb
is the one that I think has the is just
the most polarizing because like what could this next step be?
Maybe someone sees Jalen Hurts in that respect, like I
said before, take aj Brown out of it. Does Jalen
Hurts just like keep the ball a little bit more,
you know?
Speaker 1: Or does he throw more? Because he just almost refused
to throw towards a J I.
Speaker 2: Mean, I guess if you assumed that was the thing,
if you assume there really was a rift and he
just didn't want to throw it there, like I don't know,
it could go either way, Caleb Williams one is really interesting.
Speaker 1: What's your little getting a new offense too, by the way,
and that's.
Speaker 2: What's your interest in Jalen Hurts.
Speaker 1: That's what I want to ask you, because you just
talk very minimally, very minimal. I have a bigger tier
from six to eleven, so when and I like the
next tier down as well. So I just think there's
a lot of quarterbacks to pick from beyond the top ones,
which is why I kind of want to get a
top one. I'm just not really willing in most scenarios
to spend for a top one, so so I like
this group so because I have Hurts at the top,
meaning his cost, and it relates to his costs as well.
You know, I just can't see myself really ever drafting.
Speaker 2: Hurts interesting thing here, So I guess I won't make
too much about it because technically in this tier, Jaden
Daniels is high projected. He's four projected four Jalen Hurts,
as I mentioned, he's right with Jayden Daniels at three
hundred and twenty two point five thirty five hundred passing
touchdowns twenty four I'm sorry, thirty five hundred passing yards,
twenty four touchdowns, four to sixty one rushing and around
nine rushing touchdowns, so maybe a little bit higher there.
He's up in the top five. Joe Burrow as well,
is right after that. Joe Burrow's projection is a little
bit lower forty one hundred and thirty three touchdowns like
rushing touchdown, but it's lower than Jalen Hurts and Daniels.
But something I wanted to throw at you. After those guys,
there's still a couple of guys in our tier. There
is a five player differential before we get to the
next projected guy in this tier. Does that make sense
how I said that?
Speaker 1: So in this tier there's five guys that aren't in
this tier projected above the last guy in Burrow, Daniels,
and Hurts are relatively projected close.
Speaker 2: Before we get to the next guy, which is Caleb
or Herbert, there are five players with higher projected season
totals until we get two.
Speaker 1: Can I guess them?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, But justin Herbert is the guy with five
players in between projected higher than him.
Speaker 1: M And he said Caleb isn't in that group.
Speaker 2: Caleb is lower than Herbert. There's actually a guy between
Herbert and Caleb Williams as well.
Speaker 1: Okay, I think I got it all right. Stafford is
in there?
Speaker 2: Incorrect?
Speaker 1: Wow? Right, Gate Guy average twenty one point one points
last year. Jared Goff.
Speaker 2: Incorrect.
Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 2: Correct one of them that is one. Jackson Dart is.
Speaker 1: Two, Dak Prescott that is three. Is Mahomes in there?
Speaker 2: He is?
Speaker 1: He's four games one more. I have no idea who
the last one of the Bonecks, brock Perty, brock Purty
is the one.
Speaker 2: Brock Purty is actually projected from more than Dak Lawrence
or Patrick Mahomes. Five players in the projections higher than
justin Herbert. Now close? Is Herbert is the last one
of the three hundred plus projectors?
Speaker 1: Do they have games on there? It does? Is Herbert?
How many pass attempts for Herbert? Then?
Speaker 2: Five hundred and twenty nine?
Speaker 1: Okay five twelve last year in sixteen games, so that
that's basically got him for seventeen.
Speaker 2: Yeah, every player above those players above him we just mentioned,
not like Lamar and stuff, every one of them, but
Jackson Darter projected for more past attempts on it. Herbert
has projected thirty eight hundred yards, twenty six touchdowns four
fifty nine on the ground, but only two rushing touchdowns
twenty six and almost.
Speaker 1: Probably want him to run less because he's running for
his damn life less well, and also like mc vaniel,
you know they got ankle injuries too, Herbert, So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just think that's interesting, Like that doesn't vibe.
That's probably Caleb and Herbert are the two quarterbacks on
the negative that don't vibe rank to projection because Caleb
has bo Nixon between them, and there's a little bit
of a drop. I mean there's I guess it's it's
pretty minimal actually, But Kayler Williams is projected thirty eight
hundred almost twenty seven passing touchdowns, four hundred rushing and
two rushing touchdowns, nine point three picks. Again, like there's
if we look at ten points, there's a ten point
separator between like him and Brock Purty, and then if
you want to go lower than him, there's a couple
more guys. But Caleb Williams, like what where's the rank again?
He is next to Jalen Hurts, so six and seven. No,
Jalen Hurts is projected twenty five more points than Caleb Williams,
and those two are next to each other. So again
it's projections, but I thought that was really interesting when
you look at those two guys and Herbert is over Caleb.
Caleb's rank of what is it seven and ECR yeah, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven,
twelve thirty. He is fourteenth and projected at quarterback. That's
a pretty wild difference projections to ECR rank. Yeah, I
I whether you buy it or not, that's fine.
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, I don't know if I do. I'm
pretty excited for Herbert. I'm pretty excited for Caleb, but
I like them both.
Speaker 2: The next tier is nine through thirteen. Trevor Lawrence is
at nine, Jackson Dart is at ten, Dak Prescott at eleven,
followed by Brock Purty and Patrick Mahomes. From a per
game basis, brock Purty was actually the highest projected per
game at twenty point eight. It's gonna add Mike Williams
to the crew, Mike Evans to the crew. Trevor Lawrence
was number Actually, Patrick Mahomes is number one. Man. I'm
struggling with this today. Twenty one point one with Patrick
Mahomes twenty point eight with brock Purty. That's one and two.
Number three was Trevor Lawrence at twenty point six. Dart
and Prescott both struggled a little bit back on the
points per game yards went to Dock at forty five hundred.
He was your leader there. He also was a leader
in touchdowns. Trevor Lawrence went over four thousand and had
twenty nine touchdowns, so he was right there. Rock Purty
was the lowest, but that was also a per game thing.
Patrick Mahomes in fourteen games, had twenty two touchdowns rushing side.
Jackson Dart led the way and he only played fourteen
games and had just five hundred yards with nine rushing touchdowns.
Trevor Lawrence also had nine rushing touchdowns with three point
fifty nine. Mahomes was up there as well. You gotta
wonder with injuries if the rushing side is going to
go down a little bit. So that's a little bit
of the overarching is nonsensicals. I made that everybody in
there nine through twelve is still a QB one. Patrick
Mahomes kind of falls out of that at thirteen. Does
anybody not belong here? I feel like you're gonna say Mahomes.
Speaker 1: Well, I don't think Mahomes plays the first like three
to four weeks of the season. Everyone is insistent that
he's going to be back for week one, But instead
of saying yes, he's working on coming back in week one,
he is saying, you know, Andy Reid is saying he's
working real hard, he's doing his best. And I think
most coaches are pretty pollyanna your favorite word, and most
of them would say, yeah, we're really working to get
him back here for week one. Andy Reid just won't
say that. So whether it's just like you know, he
doesn't want to jinx it or something, maybe that's it,
but I don't I just don't think he's back. He
tours ACL in December, so I think he'd be absurd
to rush him back with all of the money he's
supposed to make, so I think he misses like at
least the first couple weeks, maybe the first month. So
I don't think he could. He can be up here
and he's going to be recovering from this knee injury
all year. You know less for quarterbacks than it is
for any other position. I understand that, but it's still
your ACL is pretty important. So I don't think he's
back as fast as other people do, And if he is,
I think they're pushing him too fast.
Speaker 2: I wonder if this is projecting a full seventeen or
if this is projecting like fifteen. I'd be really.
Speaker 1: Interested to see that attempts for him.
Speaker 2: Five point fifty two.
Speaker 1: That's got to be a full season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So then if you want to just like self
adjust it and take two games off there, then you
know he's probably sitting closer, you know, to QB two
and superflex or whatever. What do you think about Jackson
Dart being the highest projected of any of the quarterbacks
in this tier? He is within one singular point projected
of Joe Burrow three thirty six hundred passing yards, twenty
two hundred passing touchdowns, five fifty rushing and six and
a half rushing touchdowns, So actually less projected touchdowns, but
he's within one projected point of Joe Burrow. By it,
yeah or nay?
Speaker 1: I mean, if he plays a full season, yes, But
I think there's so much variance for Jackson Dart. Repeatability
from a good year is number one. We're obviously getting
a whole new coaching staff. So that's it. Things are
going to be different for him. Molik Neighbors recovery and
then the second surgery. How long is he going to
be out? Is he back for week one? And if
he is, is he still Malik Neighbors? Right, you add
issaya likely? But you take away Wandelle Robinson's it just
looks so different than it did last year. If we
want to say that Jackson Dart has the most upside
of this group, I'll I'll agree with that because of
his rushing, right, But I just don't know how you
could how you could accurately predict what type of season
Jackson Dart is going to have. There's a lot of
upside there, so I have him. I only have Trevor
Lawrence ahead of I think, out of this group. So yeah,
I I there's a lot of upside there. He just
very risky. Like if I draft Jackson Darham drafting another
quarterback for the bench, I.
Speaker 2: Think that's okay. It is kind of weird though, because
he's the lowest of this tier on a per game basis.
So if you want to take away the total points,
he does get Malik Neighbors back, but then you have
a lower projected rushing total, which is like, you know,
and maybe they're gonna want that more Cam's back. You know,
they don't want Dart to be throwing his body into
to everybody, like maybe he should be projected in a
lower rushing total. So is there enough in the passing
game to justify like twenty two, twenty three, twenty four touchdowns,
Milik Neighbor's coming back makes that feel good, But you
kind of don't know the next tier as we We're
gonna kind of end this out here because this tier
goes fourteen to twenty one. The core is at the top,
bo Nick's at fourteen, Matthew Stafford's at fifteen, Jared Goff
at sixteen, and Kyler Murray at seventeen, follow by Jordan Love,
Baker Mayfield, Tyler Schuck, and Malik Willis. Kind of feels
like you can maybe in you can maybe cut Chuck
and Willis off if you wanted from being frank, maybe Nick,
Stafford and Goff should be their own tier. You have
Stafford the highest of anybody in this group. You have
him as a QB one. Statistically, Stafford was the highest
on a per game basis. You kind of mentioned this
twenty one point one points. That's the same amount per
game as Drake May and he's like, Homes, Yeah, Patrick Mahomes,
he's being thrown down here. He obviously led the way
in passing touchdowns with forty six forty seven hundred yards,
and he's really being thrown down here, which is it
is goofy he was last year in QB points and
by the way his offense is returned, he's the same
running backs, he has the wide receivers, you know, like
it is. It is an oddity. So we can definitely
talk about that. Bo Nicks thirty nine hundred, twenty five
passing touchdowns three fifty six with the most rushing yards,
most rushing touchdowns of any of the players here. Jared
Goff averaged so maybe a surprising seventeen point nine points
per game. That's essentially with Jackson dart was. It's more
than Jayden Daniels, but that's less than you know, justin
Herbert or brock Purdy by a wide margin. He averages
a lot less forty five hundred yards though thirty four touchdowns,
so a lot closer to golf in that respect. Let's
just kind of stop. There is a real stopper Bonicks,
Stafford and Golf. Bo Nicks is the highest projected of
all three of those players. That does seem a little wild.
It's pretty close to Stafford and Golf, within three points
of Stafford and Golf. But does it shock you to
know that Nicks is projected higher than Stafford.
Speaker 1: No, and I when I make adjustments, I may move
Nicks up a spot here, but because I really love
the addition of Jalen Waddle. But it doesn't surprise me
that he's so high because he has that rushing upside. Right,
Like we know because you pointed this out a couple times.
I think in his rookie year, maybe it was last year,
but that Bo Nicks won't run win given chances. He
won't obviously run like some of these other guys do.
Jackson Dart takes off every chance he gets. So does
Drake May, so does Jane Daniels. Right, bo Nix is
way more patient with it.
Speaker 2: But he every time I bet his rushing prop, every
time I go for his rushing prop, he just he
stands with the line and waits and waits and waits
and drive me absolutely insane.
Speaker 1: Right, But we know he has that in him because
we've seen him have big rushing games. So the upside
is there for Brock Party and they may need it
a little more this year, or just having better wide
receivers this season may make it easier for him to
run a little bit. Maybe a little bit. Maybe Jonah
Coleman works and the run game is a little bit better,
soo his RPOs are more effective. So there's a lot
of upside for brock Party. So I'm not really surprised
at him having a high ranking here or projections.
Speaker 2: I guess you mean Bonex. You said brock Party.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yes, Bonex, My bad, Okay.
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray's interesting going to presumed he's going to have
the spot. You almost kind of can't look at anything here.
Jordan Love was only sixty point one points per game.
You just want to see him pass the ball more,
you know, is for it. I mean, if you play
the other two games, it could have been a little
bit more. But please pass the fricking ball.
Speaker 1: But a lot depends on what's going on with Josh
Shacops right, Like is if Josh Jacobs is getting a suspension, woo,
Jordan Love is gonna pass the ball a lot they
don't have another running back. They're gonna go to the
well and sign Najie Harris or Joe Mixon or somebody
left on the scrappy, I would assume because Marshawn Lloyd
ain't gonna get it done. Yeah, so, uh, something's gonna happen,
But they will. They will have to rely on Jordan
love Way more. If Jacobs gets a lengthy suspension. We
have no idea what your quick that investigation is going
to be.
Speaker 2: Are you a buyer of Kyler Murray in Minnesota?
Speaker 1: Yes, I am because of Kevin O'Connell right, Like, I
think Kevin O'Connell's still a very good offensive schemer. I
think the issues last year were from the capability of
the quarterback. I don't think Kyler Murray is the best
quarterback in the NFL by a decent margin. I would
say he's above average, and he has Justin Jefferson, Jordan
Addison and TJ. Howkinson, and like, they're very good targets.
So I'll be in on Kyler Murray in a super flex. Yes.
Speaker 2: Does it surprise you to know that Tyler Shuck is
projected from more fantasy points than Baker.
Speaker 1: Mayfield yes, it does. I'll say, like the Shuck train
is pretty loud right now, because you know, chryst Olave
had a massive year. You add Travis Etn, you add
Jordan Tyson and Bryce Lance and Oscar delp Right, there's
a lot of targets being added here for Shuck. So
that' kind of giving him no excuses of you know, hey,
look you have to be pretty good. But I mean Baker,
there's such a clear difference in Baker before and after
the shoulder entry last year. I think he's going to
come out guns blazing this year. And again, Baker's one
of those guys every time we doubt him, he proves
us wrong every time. So I'm not doubting Baker anymore.
Speaker 2: Last thing, and then I just am meant to do
a quick run through on superflex and what like the
first round looks like based on rank, is there anybody
not in that top twenty one that you think is
agreed the tiers? Because what do we go through one, two, three,
four tiers? Here there are players like c. J. Stroud,
Kim Ward, Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Jacoby Brire said, blah
blah blah. Is there anybody in here that you think
should be given a little bit higher of a look
that did not make the tier. Malik Willis snuck in
at the bottom of tier four. But any of those
other guys do anything for you or do you think
that looks and feels correct.
Speaker 1: I think it feels pretty correct. I do think that,
you know, I think CJ. Stroud has a chance to
make everybody look stupid. But I think I have him
right at his ECR. I have him one spot above.
His ECR is twenty two, and I have him at
twenty one. You know, obviously took a big step back
last year. But great targets, dude, really good targets in Houston.
You still have Nico, you have Jayden Higgins, they had
and Noel. I'm pretty excited about c J. Stroud's future.
Good value for him this year.
Speaker 2: When you look at super flex for just a second,
and we can look over Fantasy Pros ECR Superflex ranks,
there there are eight quarterbacks ranked inside the top twelve.
I just want to want to know. I'm using twelve
as the baseline if you play in a fourteen or
fifteen or sixteen team league. I'm sorry, I'm using twelve
as the baseline, adjust yourself to ten. There are eight
quarterbacks inside the top twelve. The top six picks are
quarterbacks of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Drake may, Burrow Hurtz,
and Jayden Daniels. A. Do you think that is correct
that there should be eight quarterbacks taken in the first
round of a superflex? And B do you agree that
the top six picks should be those six quarterbacks?
Speaker 1: I mean I have seven, but my top four picks
for the second round or all quarterbacks too, so I
would say that's about right, okay.
Speaker 2: And then the secondary thing is if you are playing
in a twelve team league, there are thirteen quarterbacks through
the top twenty four, so things start to break apart
a little bit in the second round. You said you
put four quarterbacks in there. The second round starts to
get more wide receiver heavy. So thirteen total quarterbacks in
the top two rounds. Do you buy that Patrick Mahomes
is number thirteenth, he's the last pick. I know you're
not a Patrick Mahomes guy. Whoever the hell you have
at thirteen is probably it. But do you think there
should be more? The second round should be a little
bit more aggressive or less? What do you think about that?
Speaker 1: I think less because I think there are about twenty
five viable quarterbacks for super Flex this year, and they're
not always twenty five viable quarterbacks, so a little deeper
this year, I think you can wait a little longer
on that second quarterback than you have been able to
in the past. So I surprisingly, for me, I don't
have that many quarterbacks in the first two rounds.
Speaker 2: And then last thing, is there anybody in a super
flex that would make you deviate from your single quarterback
ranks for super flex a little bit? Jennerson? What I'm
saying so like, there's a guy that you're like, you know, singularly,
when I only have one quarterback, I wouldn't want to
do it. Let's use an example. Jackson Dart is a player.
Let's say that you're like, you know what, I got
them at T in a single quarterback, but for a superflex,
I want to make sure I own him. I push
him up to eight at quarterback, knowing I can get
a veterany guy later. Is there anybody that breaks your
ranks a little bit positively or negatively in a super flex?
Speaker 1: I'm in my homes is really the one that I'm
the biggest difference on, and that is all from injury stuff.
I'm pretty high on Malik Willis. Like I think a
lot of people are doubting him because the targets aren't good,
but dude, it's going to run a lot.
Speaker 2: So I did six hundred and twenty eight rushing yards.
I believe that is fourth third most based off of
this in the NFL, quarterback would go to Malik Willis.
Speaker 1: Might be light, he might be bailing out a lot
if those guys getting no separation at all.
Speaker 2: So by that standard, would you say, like when you're
looking at like Isaac Love and Mayfield and Schuck, is
Willis the guy you're willing to break your own ranks
a little before to get as your QB two.
Speaker 1: Absolutely? Yeah, Yeah, I have him at sixteen. So I'm
pretty high on Malik Willis.
Speaker 2: Okay, then who is what is your quarterback? You just
answered that if you're picking quarterbacks in tiers or two quarterbacks,
Malik Willis is the back half of your super flex.
Who's the guy that you're bringing with him? Is it
Jaden and Daniels?
Speaker 1: No, it's probably Joe Burrow, right, because I am more
worried about Jade Daniels running around like a crash test
on me. But the upside is very high. So with
them both being cheap, it's probably burrow. But I will
probably have a fair share of Jayden Daniels. That will
make me very nervous this.
Speaker 2: Year quarterbacks in the books. There you go, let us
know what you guys think projections ECR, we will dig
much more into our own personal preferences, even though I
did kind of ask you there when we get into
our own ranks in a month or so. Whenever you
get to that, let's go take a look now at
the tight ends. Obviously in the same space, the only
place that you're ever doing. I guess if you do
a tight end premium it's more of a scott fishbowl thing.
We're taking lots of tight ends. You're probably ten xing
more super flex leagues, and you are a multi tight
end league. So the hyper focus is really the top
twelve to fifteen tight ends, unless there's any sneaky guys.
So we're looking at ECRM projections, and like many of
these positions, it seems very normal, I suppose, and it's
funny because I've actually done two tight end episodes on
Fantasy Pros. Now, for some reason, every Tier one is
three guys across every single position. I don't know why
that's the case anymore, but in this case it is.
Maybe there's one that shouldn't be your top three tight ends.
Rock Bauers coming in at number one on Fantasy Pros.
Number two is Trey McBride. Number three Colson Lovelan Loveland.
It jumps into this tier. Let's look at points per game.
Trey McBride dominates eighteen point six Fantasy points per game
last year, loses Kyler Murray and has Jacobey Brissett as
long as these lines of the thing as the guy
that's going to be playing in the ball. Rock Bowers
comes in it two at fourteen point seven. Colson Lovelin
is kind of complicated because the first half of the
year versus the second half, but he did average only
ten point three points per game on the season. Total
might be more relevant to look at like what he
did in the second half regardless. One hundred and sixty
nine targets for Trey McBride, one hundred and twenty six catches,
twelve hundred yards and eleven touchdowns far and beyond the
guy Bowers did not play the full slad. He played
twelve games, average eighty six targets, sixty four catches, probably
would have got into the nineties had he played a
full season, only six hundred and eighty yards. That really
flowed down with seven touchdowns. Colson Loveland fifty eight catches
in sixteen games, seven hundred yards, six touchdowns. That's the
lay of the land on tight end. Do you buy
Colson Lovelan being in the top three and do you
buy Brock Bowers holding the top spot over Trey McBride
when you had such an absolute dominant volume season that
just happened.
Speaker 1: Yes, for I, my answers are weird here. Okay, so
let's do Colton Loveland first. Colson Loveland at three, I
agree with, but I agree in the tier in the
tier though I don't have him in that tier, I
do have him at third. So I do not have
him in the top two tiers because we saw Brock
party have a record setting year as a tight end
in twenty twenty four, right, and he got hurt, and
he had Gino Smith last year and the whole offense
was broken. It was disgusting. So I'm kind of throwing
away twenty twenty five for Bowers. I don't think that
the Cardinals are going to be able to repeat the
volume that they had last year in the passing game.
I don't think that is repeatable. They had the most
past attempts by like forty last year. It's like a
full games pass attempts is six hundred and sixty one
I think they had over last season. So I just
think the overall volume in Arizona is coming down. So
I think Trey McBride's value is coming down because of that,
because he made most of his I mean, he's still amazing, right,
and he still has the potential to be, you know,
exactly what he was last year. I don't think he
gets there again because it's such a ridiculous season, right,
and I don't think you should expect that. So I
do have Bowers at one, McBride at too, but I
have them in their own tier because they can both
go crazy, super saying whatever you want to say, and
be the number one tight end by a lot. So
those are the two to me. Love Colson Lovelin. He
was tight end two after Week nine, after that massive
Bengals game, but I just don't put him there quite yet.
Speaker 2: That's all projections. Number one is Trey McBride, Number two
is Brock Bowers. Number three is Colson Lovelin. And there
are and we're looking at half PPR, by the way,
not full half PPR. I would say there are significant
enough gaps between both of them, specifically two to three
Trey McBride the only tight end projected over two hundred
points in half PPR. You guys understanding if you play
in more tight end or touchdown premium leagues or you
do you know, more tight ends catch or more points
for tight end catches or bonuses, just understand. Don't get
worked up on the points. But from an overarching perspective,
his gap between Brock Bowers is pretty significant. Two seven
to one ninety five for Bowers, McBride is projected for
one hundred and thirteen catches, eleven hundred yards and seven touchdowns.
Bowers ninety six catches about a thousand little over one
thousand yards and seven and a half touchdowns. Then the
gap is dramatic. To Coulson levelin one ninety five was
Bowers at two one sixty nine for Lovelan, So that
is twenty six point differential, seventy seven catches, nine hundred yards,
and we could round up to seven touchdowns for Colson Lovelan.
Do what is the most egregious, if anything, projection of
these three?
Speaker 1: What's the thing one more time with the targets? What
was the targets for.
Speaker 2: These I don't have targets. They don't have targets. Catches
one hundred and thirteen catches from McBride, ninety four catches
for Bowers, seventy seven for Colson Lovelin.
Speaker 1: Wouldn't one hundred and thirteen catches set the record again?
Mc pridy just said it at one twenty six, like
he had one hundred and sixty nine targets last year,
which is the most targets in a single season for
a tight end by fourteen. Before last year, there were
six one hundred and fifty target seasons at tight end.
Kelsey had done two of them. Bowers or excuse me,
Bowers had done one his rookie season, fifth, Tony g
had two in two thousand and four and twenty and eight,
and zach Ertz in twenty eighteen was the only other one.
Speaker 2: Well, he was projected for thirteen less catches than last.
Speaker 1: Year, so I understand, but I still think that that
is I still think one hundred and thirteen catches it
would be like, let me just look at this single
season tight end reception leaders. One hundred thirteen is still
an insane amount of reception. So I just don't think.
I don't think that that's really projectable. One hundred and
so one hundred twenty five last season one hundred and sixteen,
one hundred and fourteen, So one hundred and thirteen would
be the fourth most receptions by a tight end ever.
So no, I don't think that's quite right for train McBride. I,
like I said, I think that volume is coming down.
I don't think he's getting one hundred and sixty nine
targets again and one hundred and twenty six receptions or
maybe like just cut it down to one hundred. It's
still amazing.
Speaker 2: This, Okay, this is the thing. So even if it's
one hundred though and half PPR you're going to take
away let's even call it eight points, that's still more
points than brock powers. I think Fitzi's with you, And
now this isn't like our rank show, but what in
your mind, because you have Bowers at one and the
consensus had how does Bowers supersede McBride when you look,
is it just going to be They're going to be
just so much more efficient because like even when you
take away and you say, you know, it's one hundred catches,
unless you think the yard significantly, your touchdowns come down
significantly in that Cardinals offense, Like, how how does Bowers
jump over McBride here?
Speaker 1: Because he's the only one in his offense that is
going to be getting targets. I think if somebody sets
the target record this year, it'll be Rock Bowers, not
Trey McBride. Again, like they just don't have other options.
And with a healthy Bowers and a better offense, I
think it's gonna be. You know, Bowers is going to
be the first raad almost every time. Now, last season,
Trey McBride was the first read by a lot thirty
three point nine percent. But this is kind of the
same thing that we were talking about in the wide
Receiver episode, which is why I'm down on the Cardinals overall. Right,
you add Tyler out here, you add Jeremiah Love, you
add these two big rushers to this year. You want
the ball out of the quarterback's hands, out of the
court because the quarterback is not good. It's Jacoby Brissett,
who's fine, right, like you know, borderline startable level in
the NFL. He's having this argument because he started many games,
so uh, you know, I understand his frustration with it
because you looked good last year. It's just the defense
was miserable. But it's gonna be somewhat similar. But you
don't want to throw the ball that many times. You
want to run the ball way more. So I think
targets for everybody goes down, and that's a great answer.
I think it's the opposite for the Raiders though, right
like you, you were going to pass the ball more
because you added a good quarterback in Fernando Mendoza and
you don't have a lot of targets. Bowers is going
to lead this team by a lot. So that is
and I and dude, I go back and forth between
McBride and Bowers in my brain every day. It's not
an easy answer because Trey McBride is so good. I'm
not like Fitzy. I don't Fitty wants to sell McBride
everywhere you possibly can. I don't want to do that.
I saw McBride at Colorado State be awesome. Everybody knew
it was coming and he still got the ball. And
he did it for the Cardinals last year too. Everybody
knew it was coming and he still got the ball.
I just think in Arizona, you have McBride, you have Harrison,
you have Wilson, you have Jeremiah Love. Now, like, there's
way more mouths to feed. Okay, so that's why Bowers
gets more targets.
Speaker 2: To me, knowing this and knowing that you said you
want more tight ends, Brock Bowers is going sixteen overall,
Trey McBride twenty two. Amplify it and say it's in
the second round, in the second round, what percentage of
drafts will you be spending a pick on the tight end?
Probably the only quarter I thought, well, I did well.
Speaker 1: It depends on what position I'm in, Because if I'm
at the end, which is where I'm probably going to
be choosing my kds most of the time, I'm just
maybe it may be too early to take a tight end,
or maybe too you know, too good of a wide
receiver running back left from.
Speaker 2: Me, And that's a that's a prioritization I'm curious about
because I think like Fitzy has kind of made it
clear that it's just like he got to have one
of those guys, So I'm not sure, like maybe if
he had twelve, he's not going to pull the trigger
on that because the talent poll is too good. But
I got the impression that in most cases, Like I
don't want to speak for him, but I feel like
over fifty percent of leagues he's going I guess maybe
that can't be the case because if he so out
on McBride, it's only Bowers for him. Bowers is that
she is the little bit more expensive one at sixteen.
So I think if given the choice, if I just
told him, hey, in the second round, you can get
Bowers regardless of where you're at, unless you're at the
back end of the second round, how often I feel
like he'd say over fifty percent of the time, you
want you.
Speaker 1: Know what, Yeah, and listen, here are the guys in
that are I have in the second round? That it's
ah Chan, Colins, Gent Those the guys I'm willing to
take ahead of Bowers McBride because I have them at
sixteen and seventeen so I, like I said, I think
a quarter because in KTS, I'm gonna be picking the
back end, so I can get a like a JT
or like a Justin Jefferson and a Chan combo. Oh God,
please to be fair.
Speaker 2: By the way, gent A, Chan and Collins are thirteen,
fourteen or fifteen in the overall rank, so they're literally
the first three picks in the second round. So anything
after that tight ends are probably on the.
Speaker 1: Board for you.
Speaker 2: Tight Ends four through eight that is the next tier.
So there's five tight ends you start with. Tyler Warren
On Fantasy Pros, Tucker Craft comes in at five, Harold
Fannin at six, Sam four at seven, Kyle Pitts, who
just signed his new deal at eight. From a points
per game.
Speaker 1: Perspective, hello, Tucker Craft did he played.
Speaker 2: The least amount of games, but he averaged fourteen point
seven points per game while he was there. He caught
six touchdowns for four eighty nine. Obviously they're all lows
because of the games played. Number two might surprise you,
Kyle Pitts twelve point four. He also had the most targets,
the most catches, the most receiving yards, but didn't score
a lot of touchdowns, but a lot of big plays.
He had twelve twenty plus yard plays, which was second
among all tight ends, or at least tied among all
tight ends. Overall catches after Kyle Pitts went to Tyler Warren,
who also was second in receiving yards seventy six catches
eight to seventeen, had the least amount of receiving touchdowns,
only had one rushing touchdown. Thought that could be a
little bit higher, but Tyler Warren and Harold Fannon were
bottom end points per game at around eleven, which is
relatively mediocre in that so it's a weird here. You
have some slight differences, though, so feel free to jump in.
I will talk about projections here, but Tyler Warren is
the most highly ranked with the lowest touchdown equity. Kyle
Pitts seems very volatile. Tucker Craft seems like the wild
card to me because he had the potential to be
a top three or four overall tight end. I hate
that I'm not getting a discount though I'd love to
get more of a discount on him for this season
because I love the touchdown equity. But that team also
weirds me out with all the receiving options and stuff.
So where are you at on this tight end group?
Speaker 1: I mean, I still like Tucker Kraft the most out
of you know, this group, really and he's expected to
be back week one. We've heard all good reports from him. Obviously,
the ACL tear was in the middle of the year,
so not like Patrick Mahomes and at the end of
the year some more than enough time to recover and
make a big impact. And you know, like you said,
do we have an absolute alpha in Green Bay? Is
it Christian Watson? He's more of a deep threat to
me and one that comes with constant injury concerned. So
is Golden gonna take a jump? Is Jaydon Reied gonna
stay healthy? You got the Night's extension right, So? And
are we passing more? Because Jacobs Isscone. So I think
there are enough questions for Tucker Kraft, But for me,
I would have him pretty high up here. That fourteen
point seven points per game is really sexy.
Speaker 2: So do you think there should be a do you
think there should be a gap between Like do you
think Kraft and Warren are a tier better than guys
like Fannin and Pitts and stuff, Or do you think
it's deserved that, like this is the right tier of guys.
Speaker 1: No, I think all of these guys still could be
playing for tight End three. Obviously I have Colson Lovelin
in this group as well, But like I think, I
think maybe Tyler Warren doesn't get enough hype. I feel
like we're starting to get more Tyler Warren hype, but
for the last month, to me, the hype in Indy
has been around Josh Downs, which I just don't really understand.
Tyler Warren is so much better with the ball in
his hands and Josh Downs is I think Josh Downs
gets all right, excuse me, I think Tyler Warning gets
way more targets. You know.
Speaker 2: It's funny about the Yeah, I kind of think like
Alec Pierce gets to continue doing his role of stretching
the field and well he's heart Yeah. Sure. But my
point is is, and then Josh Downs can play that
super low like screen passy role type of thing, but
that that middle of the field Michael Pittman thing that
is more for Tyler Warren, even more for him. He
can obviously play screen passes and stuff, but that's more
opportunity for Warren to just be across the middle. So
I kind of agree with you. I love the hundred
plus target run. I actually kind of think Warren and
Craft deserve to be a sub tier just because, like
it is positive, especially with how Shador targeted Fannin and
now you've got Djoku out. Oh you know, So I'm
just saying, like, you know, he has a little bit
more run there, so I could see, like, you know,
there's a little bit more excited there. He did have
over one hundred targets and stuff.
Speaker 1: But the concern for Fannon isn't like it's day. It's
it's a dense Boston and Casey concepcion. It's not you know,
in Djoku being gone whatever, like he already led them.
But those guys coming in, those are those are guys
that are going to take targets. So that's the concern,
more bigger consers.
Speaker 2: And that's why there might be a sub tier. That's
why I'm kind of Gettingah, yeah, you are lower on
Sam Laporta. You actually have Kyle Pitts a spot higher.
But like if we were to follow the tiers, so
Titan nine goes into tier three, that's where Sam Laporta
would go to. You you have him a couple spots lowers.
What is the separator that Laporta doesn't belong in this grouping?
Speaker 1: I just want to know that Laporta is going to
be good to go for week one. He he was
like he was red Jersey for OTAs. They said, he's
trending in the right direction for training camp. You know,
it's just been the back injury is pretty serious for anybody.
So Mike, my concern with him is is he ready
for camp? Is he ready for week one? They say
he's trending in the right direction, So I'll reserve the
right to bump him up and move him later, but
drafting right now, I don't want to take Samblaporta. That's
basically what it is.
Speaker 2: Uh. Fun fact, when we look at projections of all
of these tight ends in this tier, your lowest projected
is your top guy, Tucker Craft. Tucker craft Craft is god.
What is it? Three, four, five, six, seven, eight night.
He's the tenth projected tight end in half PPR points
with fifty eight catches, seven hundred and fifty yards and
six touchdowns. Number one is Tyler Warren probably not a
shock eighty three catches eight seventy with five touchdowns, but
Kyle Pitts is number two at almost eighty catches eight
hundred just shy of nine hundred yards and five touchdowns.
Harold Fannin comes in next above Laporta at seventy eight
catches eight fifteen for five touchdowns. I guess we and
I guess Kelsey's in the next tier, and then you
know you got Tucker Craft is just kind of sitting
down there. Look, any is there any unbelievableness to that?
For you? It's goes Warren Pitts fan and Laporta and
then Craft as the projections, with obviously Craft being low
standing out and Pits being high standing out.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, Kraft is projected to be back for week one,
so I'm I'm surprised that all of this is down
for him. Obviously, he didn't go through the OTA program either,
so I understand it's fair to call me a hypocrite
about Sam Laporta versus Tucker Craft. But Tucker craft a
knee injury is pretty well known and recoverable. Right. It
doesn't happen everybody, and some guys take longer than others,
So there is risk in Tucker Craft. But I think
he's back and going for week one. I just the
back injuries are trickier to me for Sam Laporta, so
that I guess the low numbers for Craft do surprise
me a little bit. I'm not surprised fan. It takes,
you know, a haircut here, it makes it makes a
lot of sense with the guys that they added next tier.
Speaker 2: This is tier three, This is nine through fifteen. So
that's of our big stopping point. I'll ask you a
question about a deeper guy, but this is the end
of the first round and then the second tier one
tight ends that you're starting, and then the second tier
of tight ends. Travis Kelsey comes in at number nine,
followed by Dalton Kincaid. George Kittle is the wild card,
of course, he comes in at eleven. That is clearly
built around the injury. He says he wants to be
ready for week one. But you know if some buts
Candy is a nuts ye. Jake Ferguson week is number twelve,
Dallas Goddard at thirteen, Isaiah Likely at fourteen, Mark Andrews
at fifteen. Here are some numbers. You're obviously it's gonna
be skewed with Kittle here because he is the highest
of the projected per game at fourteen point seven. He's
like a top five tight end win healthy and out there.
Maybe there's a haircut that needs to be taken if
Mike Evans is out there when they all are healthy,
but there's too many concerns there. Next up, it's quite
a bit down. It's actually Dallas Goddard at twelve point
three points per game from last year he played fifteen games.
And then it goes to Travis Kelcey and Jake Ferguson
of that group besides well Kittle it doesn't even count
for this, but only two tight ends in this grouping
had one hundred targets. It was Travis kelce who's number nine,
and Jake Ferguson, who was twelve. Ferguson had the most
catches eighty two of anybody. Kelsey had the most receiving
yards at eight fifty one. Dallas Goddard blew everybody out
in touchdowns. He's the only one with double digit with eleven.
Ferguson had eight killed ad have seven in that short
amount of games. Pretty low touchdown totals for the rest
of that group. There's actually quite a few things to
hit in here. Do you want to go two nuts
on this? You have two wildly different ranks, so you're
gonna have two wildly different feelings of guys. The fourteenth
and fifteenth tight end are not startable fantasy tight end
options according to this. In the twelve man league, you
have both of them as top ten tight ends, and
you are clearly team Isaiah Likely. Obviously this is gonna
be a big discussion when we do our rank episodes.
But I'm going to guess you don't love the ranks
of those two guys, even though I think Goddard is
supported for you on projections because he actually comes in
as the ninth tight end and you have him at ten.
But your Isaiah Likely, who you have at eight, is
not in the top like fourteen or thirteen tight ends.
So the projections for Likely are sixty catches seven to
twelve with about five touchdowns. Goddard is sixty five catches.
Speaker 1: Andrews.
Speaker 2: Oh, I'm sorry, it's I'm sorry, I'm saying Godard Andrews. Okay, Okay,
I just want to make sure yeah, no, no, I
screwed that up. Andrews is still closer kind of to
your rank. I guess because he's projected as the eleventh
tight end. He's fifty eight catches six oh seven with
seven touchdowns, likely a sixty catches seven to twelve, five
touchdowns former teammates. Them being away from each other obviously
creates better production. And I think that's where you're getting it.
By the way you do have You've got it lower
than those guys. So that's yeah, I've got it at sixteen,
Andrews at ten. But Andrews and Likely being separated from
each other for you looks like you have put them
as more of elite options. So this is clearly where
ranks and you don't vibe. And I don't know if
you hate those projections for those guys either.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you know, projections are projections. So the
thing with likely to me is that, Okay, you know
we have Malik Neighbors coming off this knee injury and
a new offense. Who is the second target for the Giants?
Welsh tell me right now, it's Neighbors Jamskataboo. The second
target on the team is number two. I'm not talking
about like backing order. I just mean who will physically
have the second most targets it's gotten likely to me, right,
because it's Darius Slayton, it's Malachi Fields, It's it's this
group of who.
Speaker 2: Right, That's that's fair. Yeah, I mean I think you're
I think what you're debating is fine. I think there
might be a bigger thing to say it's nobody where
you say it's a collection of Austin and slay And
I guess you want to make the argument that there
has to be a clear cut number two that separates themselves.
I'll give you likely, but I think there's a hodgepodge
of Mooney and Juju and Beckham back that it.
Speaker 1: Just ends up looking like it ends up looking like
the Bills, you know what I mean, where it's just like, okay,
everybody gets forty eight targets.
Speaker 2: Here we go, oh yeah, it is so gross around
there that like, I'll give you that, I think the
top three fantasy option for this team is him, because
then you go, Skataboo has you know, got to be
number one? And neighbors is there?
Speaker 1: Likely?
Speaker 2: We know he can make big plays and he can
do stuff in small screen passes that maybe he does,
so I just don't know it's definitive, Like you were saying,
but I think your logic makes total sense.
Speaker 1: Right, And uh, you know Mark an Andrew's problems, you know,
have been a lot because Likely is there sharing targets
with him, and now Likely is gone, Charlie Kohler's gone,
you know so, and they're gonna get more vertical in
this offense this year as well. So I think Mark
Andrews is going to fit in perfectly here and have
a lot of touchdown opportunity, right because we know everybody
wants to tell me Theay Flowers is never going to
get end zone targets? Okay, who is then Jacobe Land
and Mark Andrews right, And obviously Derek Henry scores a
lot of touchdowns to Mark and get in there when
he's healthy as well. But I see there's touchdown up
upside for Mark Andrews. There's target upside from Mark Andrews
with Likely gone and this offense being more vertical. And
for Isaiah Likely he steps into an offense that leaves
one hundred and forty targets with Wandale Robinson gone, A
lot of those are gonna go to Malik Neighbors coming back,
but he is coming off a major injury. The offense
is different, and this is a group that worked with
Isaiah Likely in Baltimore. So I'm very very excited for Likely,
and I think he is being way too overlooked right now.
Speaker 2: Can Katie mentioned before projected fifty seven catches, seven hundred yards,
five and a half touchdowns. He's projected just under Andrews.
If I'm eyeballing this because they don't give me the
NU miracle, it looks like roughly tight end twelve on
this list, that's where you've got him. That's a little
bit lower than where the ECR has him. Would you
say if healthy Kinkaid might be the top? I mean,
I guess if you got to not count Kittle in
this one, and I guess I understand you have a
likely there, Yeah or nay that Kinkaid's upside if healthy
is tremendously high or do you think that's just enough?
Speaker 1: Nay? Yeah? Every day I and I think when I
do my adjustment, I'll probably finally move Kinkaid down. But
it's just they You know, Joe Brady takes over, but
he called the offense last year, so I don't think
the tight end usage is going to change significantly. Jackson
Hawes is in there to block a lot, so it
is Dawson Knox, and Dawson Knox can catch a little
bit as well, So you know Dunt Kincaid saw over
fifty percent of snaps I think three times last season.
I just don't know the upside would be from touchdowns
and he's he'd have to score a lot of them,
like Dallas Goddard did last year. But Dallas Goddard before
last season is season high in touchdowns was five, So
I don't think that's very repeatable to have eleven touchdowns
again for Goddard either, especially with Sours there, even with
Brown gone and the targets being spread out more. So,
I just don't see a ton of upside for Kincaid,
And I like that you pointed him out because I
do need to move him down.
Speaker 2: Is Goddard simply by the way, you're kind of hate
of him because you don't even have him top fifteen?
Is it touchdown regression? Do you think his touchdowns propped
him up? And you don't think that's repeatable? Not at all?
Speaker 1: Eleven touchdowns is crazy, Like Jake Ferguson having eight I
thought was kind of high as well with but Ceedee Lamb,
you know, high ankle sprain week two and then the
rest of the season kind of played Gimpi and George
Pickens would went nuts. With Lamb and Pickens coming in healthy,
what is left for Jake Ferguson is my question? So,
uh yeah, I'm down on those guys overall because I
think they were boosted by touchdown.
Speaker 2: Production outside the top fifteen. Any tight ends that you dig,
anybody that you're into, and I see you have Gadson
a tiny bit higher, that's actually a pretty common fate.
I think for a lot of people I know a
conquo as well. Are those one of the guys that
you would target? Who's someone that you dig outside the
top fifteen?
Speaker 1: Yeah, like a con quo. I do think that it
gets a little murky moving down. I don't Schultz could
come back up. Maybe TJ. Howkinson moves back up. Gunner
Helm gets his own run this year.
Speaker 2: How about this? Can you guess the tight end that
is not in the top fifteen ECR that has the
highest projections, It's.
Speaker 1: Got to be a conquo Because a lot like Isaiah
likely and a lot of people are saying this about
a conquo who is the number two target in Washington
right now? Is it not a conquo?
Speaker 2: It is not even remotely whoa okay, con quo, not even.
Speaker 1: In a con quo.
Speaker 2: Here's some guy's projected from more points than a con quo.
Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on, can I let me keep guessing
this other person? Then?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 1: Is it Jawan Johnson?
Speaker 2: Very close? Actually, when I asked the question, I thought
it was Juwan Johnson, and then I realized there's one
guy ahead of him. Juwan Johnson is projected very high,
but he is one spot below this guy.
Speaker 1: Okay, who is this guy? Just tell me?
Speaker 2: Hunter? Henry Hunter, Henry fifty six sketches, six point fifty
five and a half touchdowns, is projected within two points
of your boy, Isaiah. Likely he's the highest, followed by
Juwan Johnson. The Coco was so far down. Kate Aughton,
Kenya Sidik is projecting a j bardon those guys PROJECTI
more than a conquo.
Speaker 1: Wow, like I.
Speaker 2: And by the way, Gadsden projected lower than all of
those guys, including.
Speaker 1: The Dadson is lower than a conkquo. Yeah, wow, I
don't know. I mean, I think people are realizing that Gadsden,
and I think it's like thirty six percent of his
fantasy points came in two games last year, so he
does need to go down. But I still think there's
upside for Gas and there's just a lot of mouths
to feed there. I'm kind of surprised a Conko is
that like below kated outen. It is kind of silly
to me, Like I do think Washington ads. I think
Stefan Diggs is still out there. Obviously Brandon Ayuk wants
to be with the Commanders, so I do think they
add a target before the season starts. But a conk
will being that low might be number two on the
team right now, behind Terry McLaurin.
Speaker 2: All right, shot white, But you know, how about two
tight end targets any range, two guys that you think
are going to be on the majority of teams.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean one of the top two guys, So
Bowers and uh McBride for one of my picks because
I want to go high and if not, probably gonna
be Tyler Warren. Then you know, I think Tyler Warren
is going to fall to a point where I just
can't pass him. If I didn't get that early tight end.
Speaker 2: I just want to point out you decided you picked
two top four tight ends, two top five, and so that's.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Well I see, I see a lot of the
secondary group is the same, right, like a lot of
obviously like Isaiah likely. So but I know Isaiah likely
is free. I can get him in every draft, I think.
Speaker 2: So let me ask you this, if you were in
like a tight end premium league, is it okay you
get one of those top guys. You're getting one of
those and you're and you're not even gonna f around. Sure,
but now you have a util you know, a flex
spot that you could my baseball coming out utail, a
flex spot that you could utilize tight end premium. Are
you to who who's the guy that you're targeting. If
you're targeting another guy in the tight end, it's likely
over like you know, Harold Fannin or something. I mean,
I guess those guys are all going to be pushing.
It's likely because you're those.
Speaker 1: Guys are going to go too high for me to
reinvest after having one tight end, even in a tight
end premium for the most part. And I he's higher
in the tight end premium, but he's still cheap overall,
So it's Isaiah likely for me pretty much.
Speaker 2: Everywhere fascinating stuff, whether it's taking a look at the
ECR or the projections. You can go to Fantasy Pros
if you want to check out Finnish Pros dot com,
slash projections if you want to look at those which
I was citing three different sources, Fnish Pros dot com,
Slash NFL slash rankings, if you want to check out
the ECR, but maybe more importantly, if you want to
see what Bogman's got going on, go to in this
League dot Com. You can check out his ranks. Now
new coats coming up that is going to lead into
within the next month or so where you or Bogmin
and I are going to be doing our rank positional
rank episodes. This was just to get you set what
the market looks like. We'll obviously probably talk about how
the market has changed when we get to that. Because
I told you there's like fifty plus rankers, there's another
two hundred probably say happen.
Speaker 1: I think it's up to seventy seven now, yeah, I.
Speaker 2: Mean so by the time we do the ranks episode,
it'll probably be around one hundred and fifty plus. The
ranks contest usually gets around two hundred to fifty something
like that, and then in season it gets nuts. So
there's gonna be some changes. You know, they might not
be dramatic or anything like that, but you might see swaps.
You might see McBride jump over Bauers, whatever it looks like. Uh,
you can check out Bogman's ranks in this league. Mine
will be up there. But he's got Dynasty, he's got Superflex,
he's got redraft IDP all that stuff. Go and check
it out. You are supporting us when you do so,
and damn it, we love you when you do that.
Thank you for the support for the upcoming season, because
we got a bunch of episodes coming up, We got
mock drafts that are ready to happen. Itl Army is
where you can also be a part of those. You
can join us in the live mock drafts and a
ton more, whether it's breakouts, sleepers prepping you up for it,
plus ranks. It's all going down as a football season
is ready to kick into action, So make sure you're
subscribing to your part of it. I'll find us on Twitter.
Is it the Welsh bog wins sports. Those are on
the socials. That is going to do it for this episode.
Thank you so much for hanging out with us, and
we'll talk to you next time right here on ITL
Fantasy Football Edition Piece O Friends, Slip Bamar