Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It's Wednesday time for full Court
Press Robino. I decided to troll myself on the show today.
I gotta know better than to go against New Mexico
at the pit. Ruined our parlay with that one. It
was a game. Admittedly, I was occupied with a very
good game in Newark last night that I was at,
so I didn't watch much of the Grand Cane in
New Mexico game. But it looked like a game until it, like,
wasn't I think. I looked down at my phone, It's tied.
In the second half. I look down at my phone again,
They're down by thirty. So I don't know what happened
in the pit, but it looked like New Mexico just did.
I guess what they do at home when they you know,
sort of ride the wave of that crowd and blow
a game open. Unfortunately it cost us our parlay. But
my only play for clients yesterday was Baylor, nice easy winner,
never never even a sweat, I you know, hate Yeah.
I was at the Yukon I Seating Hall game. I
was like, all right, well I'll watch on my phone
if I have to rob That was a check to
score twice throughout the game. I was never worried about Baylor.
They crush Oklahoma State. You had a great call on Nova.
Sorry I ruined it for you, But how'd your night go?
Other than that?
Speaker 2: The college hoop was good? It was almost five and zero.
Belmont team total fell just a shade short in that
seventy eight seventy four win over Balpo, who seems to
give them trouble each and every year in the home gym.
But other than that, had the Florida Oklahoma game over
the total pretty easy. Florida look great offensively. The guards
are coming around for that team. They're becoming a complete unit.
Had the Virginia team total, of course, you and I
discussed Virginia Louisville a couple of days ago. Number just
seemed too low to me, Adams seventy five and a half,
so clients got to win there. They got another win
with the Ohio Toledo game over again never in doubt,
And of course the one we released here as part
of the parlay, the Nova team total over which I
tell you they were cruising almost to the point where
I thought we'll just chalk this one up until they
hit seventy nine, and it wasn't as easy anymore. They
stalled there for a minute, but Providence kept the game
close enough to where they were going to be free
throws at the end, and sure enough you wind up
with a I think Ada eighty four final in that one.
So it was good. I mean, I'll take four and
one any day of the week. It continues, I think
since December first, where now and again at a lesser rate.
I haven't really played a lot of a high percentage
of bankroll on these plays, just more volume, lesser percentage.
Up about twenty six units. Good for number two at
wager Talk since December the first. It's a six to
seven week run here that's been really good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm on a nice run myself since January first,
trying to turn around a bad first couple months. So
it's been really good. I got five straight four percent
winners bringing that into today. Already have a four percenter
up for today, and you can get all of mine
and Rob's plays on the joint package that is gonna
be a season long thing. So that's up on both
of our pages, and you get three days every pick
that we make for the next three days. I've already
locked in a four percent play for today and Rob
with this slate probably gonna find something else. There's a
lot of games, so we're gonna get into it. I
think the feature game we decided tonight, especially after Iowa
State got just waxed at Lauren at Allen Fieldhouse last night.
Feature game is gonna have to be Vandy. They're heading
to Austin, Texas, Texas. Pretty disappointing season, I would say,
until last time out they get a huge win over Alabama,
Rob Vino, Can they do it again? Can they end
the perfect season for Vandy in Austin tonight?
Speaker 2: It's going to be and I hate to say, it's
going to be difficult when the you know, preferred team
or the better team is the road team, because we
saw last night when you go into an opposing venue
inside of conference and it's not like it's anything new
conference road is always treacherous in these power conferences and
even in the mid major conferences. But you know, to
your point about Kansas earlier they destroyed Iowa State, Iowa
State walked in. It is about the same, I guess,
almost the same size favorite as Vandy is tonight going
into Austin and didn't walk out very successful. You know
a couple of things here. Vanderbilt just does everything so well.
If your Texas, there's really nothing that they do that
Vanderbilt isn't better at at this point in time. So
when you have an underdog like that at home, and
if you're a home underdog player, you immediately look towards
the point spread and how much are you going to
give me? If I'm going to take the lesser team,
what am I going to get here? You're going to
get about five and a half. We'll see if it's
enough with Vandy. Adam, it's a team that even the
other day against LSU, they had a one for fifteen
second half shooting threes and still won the game by
fifteen points. I mean to quote to quote that Mark
Byington here, the head coach. He says, we went through
a shooting drought and these kids still figured a way
out of it. We were going against a team that
really wanted to win, but our guys had a response
in different ways. I really hope we keep that the
entire year. You walk in with a bullseye on your chest.
We mentioned this about undefeated the last few days. This
is another one that comes in Texas is going to
give them their best shot. And certainly they played well
against Alabama in that win the other night. I don't
think Alabama's the defensive team that Vandy is. I don't think,
you know, Alabama's a great offensive team with pace as
is Dy. But I think Bandy is the better shooting team,
the more efficient team. So Texas has that up against them.
And you also have to try and replicate the performance
out of Jordan Pope on Saturday night, right he was
absolutely on fire six of thirteen from three twenty eight
points in the game. Carried the team is Sean Miller. Actually,
you know, and we've mentioned head coach after head coach
this year that's had something derogatory to say about their team,
and generally it's defensive effort or energy level. And Miller
called the team out before the game and they went
out and won that one. He seems to think that
it's a bit of a confidence builder. You know, that
confidence could come crashing down right away. This total is
one sixty five and a half. I look there, Texas. Actually,
Adam has played quite a few games, five that have
gone over this number, two that have gotten to one
sixty four and one that's got the one sixty five,
so they're no stranger to this point territory. It just
it seems high to me. But when I think about
it in terms of final score, you know, eighty six,
eighty one, something like that, that seems really reasonable in
a game like this. So for me, if I had
to play, I really think I'd be on Vanderbilt. Still,
I will say one last thing at some point in time,
and we're only in mid January, so maybe it's not now,
but the loss of Frankie Collins five days ago just
put Vandy at a little bit of a depth shyness
where rotation is concerned. And I don't know that it's
too early in the conference schedule to say that they're
going to get fatigued, but I do wonder road trips
beginning of February, middle of February, if the gas tank
doesn't run a little dry on this Vanderbilt trio that's
been so fantastic so far this season. I'll say all
five starting quick tip, but the three in particular the
backcourt has been great for them. So tonight, I think
if I had to, I would lean Vandy. No real
spot for me on the total great game to watch,
but difficult game to play.
Speaker 1: I'll say that, M yeah, Texas needs a friendly whistle
in this game. In my opinion, they will get to
the foul line. They get to the file line a ton,
so they could really, in my opinion, benefit from like
this being called tight and a lot of files being
called But the problem with that, rob is if it's
being called tight and it's being called tight both ways,
Voca Titis would probably get himself in foul trouble and
that's a huge issue for Texas because if he is
not on the floor, that's a problem in my opinion,
for the for the Longhorns. And then you've got this
Vandy team has been so impressive even without Collins. Their
guards are just so good. And I you know, I
talked about this yesterday and I feel like it really
kind of came to fruition where you were being forced
to pay in an insane premium for these like home
team in the big spot national TV, like big time
home game, and almost everyone fell flat yesterday, right like
if you were if you were the out there being,
you know, trying to outthink the room being like Oklahoma
at home they got crushed, Mississippi State crushed. You know
there there was a few of them. Actually the game
I was that probably was trending toward being one of those,
and then Seaton Hall kind of miraculously came back to
cover that number. But this one's not as bad as
some of the other ones, and even some of the
ones on the today's card. Like, I feel like this
number is fair. I kind of I kind of make
it right in this range, Rob Texas five plus five
and a half. I think the number is fair, But
I do think Texas needs some things to go their way, specifically,
if they can win, if they can live at the
foul line here, they're getting the friendly whistle and they're
they're just pretty much allowed to rack up files and
shoot free throws. I think they can be in this game.
If that's not the case, I don't know if they're
good enough to hang with Vandy over forty minutes, especially
even without Collins. Tanner and Duke Miles are going to
outplay their guards in my opinion. So it's like Texas
needs to live at the free throw line, and they
can't have ookatitis getting foul trouble and not be on
the floor those are those are the big things for
Texas because when he's not on the floor, that that
team is just very different on both ends. And so
it's a tough one. I'm not the biggest I haven't
been the biggest fan of this Texas team. So for me, Rob,
I don't know if I can come in and then
play them after they just beat Alabama. I don't like
being reactive like that. So that's the other thing for me,
will be a good one. I think if but hey,
if you get the tight whistle, maybe the old is
in play, because if Texas is allowed to just go
and you know, get points from the foul line, I
think Vandy's still going to score here, So maybe the
over is in play. I can't did you say over?
I was like listening to you talk about Vandy, I
didn't really hear the total aspect.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't play under, that's for sure. I mean,
like I say, Texas has been in and around this
one sixty five and a half number quite a bit
this year. Five times they've gotten over it. A couple
of times they've gotten to sixty four. Once they got
the sixty five. So and especially Adam, if you have
the free throw extension. At the end, Vandy's an exceptional
free throw shooting team. If they're the one in front,
you're probably going to score from the free throw line.
They're just so complete. I mean, it's hard to believe
that with their lack of a true big that they
can be the shop blocking force that they are, that
they can be the defensive rebounding force that they are.
They're just better in all aspects. I think at first
glance people would recognize them this season as an offensive team,
but it's all the other little stuff that they do
so well, And I don't think their depth comes into
play here yet. I do think in February when they're
on the road, maybe Frankie Miles, they're talking about possibly
NCAA tournament after the meniscus surgery. We'll see, But it's
hard to go against Vanderbilt right now other than sixteen
and oh going on the road and a team lying
in wait. But I would take your advice that maybe
Texas that win against Alabama that could have been a
one off, right Texas hadn't really shown that all season long,
and if that's just a one game effort. Sean Miller
did seem to think that maybe the team has a
shot of confidence, we'll find out tough game to play,
maybe in game, but tough game to play from the outset.
Speaker 1: Rob, did you know wa wa sells two bigger sizes
of coffee than this right here? It's crazy, it's more
coffee than that. This is already a lot.
Speaker 2: I happen to have two wah wahs because they just
built another one two waas within a mile and a
half of my home here. So the one that was
a mile and a half away wasn't good enough that
to put one on the other side of the road
that was about you know, eight tenths of a mile
closer to me. So yeah, why was that a night place?
Speaker 1: For sure, my sister's got like five like within close
proximity to your house. But you gotta like, two miles
in central New York is a lot different than two
miles in South Jersey Philadelphia area. So yeah, I actually
like there was one that was much easier to get
to than the other. I guess you gotta he learned
like the hard way down here, Like, you know, two
miles down here might be you know, seventeen lights right
you're battling, Yeah, you know, you we're gonna go out.
So this is Garth. First of all, thank you for
the donation, and he wants to talk Wyoming San Diego State.
This kind of illustrates my point. I think, you know,
with these the books are really in my opinion, they're
making my life easier because they're taking so many games
just like and making it so they're impossible to play
with the tax that they're putting on home court. Suddenly,
I think that this will wear off over time. But Rob,
I think you get this whole thing where it's like,
you know, the finals, Finals week happened, or Finals month,
and then it's like you've got some time off and
then there's there's no one in the stands because students
are are on break. Students come back. Suddenly you've got
a little bit of atmosphere. Now you're in conference play
and it's like the big home game spot starts to
pop up. The problem with that is you're getting numbers
like you're getting in this game. And so Garth's thoughts
on Wyoming San Diego State. I can't pick aside. He
does like Wyoming team total over Well, Garth, the reason
you can't pick aside is because you're probably pretty tuned in.
You probably make your own power rankings and you're like, wow,
this is probably a pretty tough spot for San Diego
State to have to go in altitude. And then you
look at the number and realize it's one and a half,
And you got to say to yourself, how can I
possibly justify backing Wyoming and only getting a point or
a point and a half when I think anyone that
makes like power ratings probably has San Diego State like
significantly higher. So Rob, my question to you is like,
what are we giving seven or eight points here at
home for Wyoming? Like, like, that's where I'm getting having
a hard time with trying to bet a side in
this game. So maybe you do go the totals route.
Can Wyoming score more than seventy four points tonight?
Speaker 2: Well, obviously can Adam because there's potential for them to
get their pace in this game. Unlike a lot of
previous editions of San Diego State, they're playing pretty quick
for a San Diego State team, right They're number two
in tempo and league play. Of course, league play only
has a few instances so far, but again, Wyoming's gonna
go out and try to push tempo. It's basically the
way they have to play to win this game. You
can't go down and set up against the San Diego
State defense. That defense, for what it's worth, has held
their three of their first four Mountain West opponents under
this total of seventy four and a half. But if
San Diego State's willing to go with Wyoming, and San
Diego State has some offensive firepower, and as I mentioned,
playing at the number two pace in the Mountain West,
then certainly Wyoming could get over the total. Here. San
Diego State's the better team. Wyoming's off a loss, which
actually helps when you have the home team here off
of a loss, but it was a high scoring loss.
A lot of times when the team puts up a
bunch of points the game before, I don't like to
come back with them second time around. However, this number
is considerably lower, due in fact to this San Diego
State defensive ability. So you get that seventy four and
a half guarth that home with Wyoming. I guarantee you
probably don't see seventy four and a half as a
team total for Wyoming in Mountain West play the rest
of the year. So this is your one shot to
get this number, and it's more than doable in this instance.
I haven't played it yet. I think in this league,
even though Utah State is generally as good, or in
the case of this season, maybe even better than San
Diego State, san Diego State is the one team that
walks into Rhode Arenas with the immediate bulls eye on
their chests like they're the team that gets everybody's best
shot in that particular league. It's San Diego State. They'll
get Wyoming's best shot tonight. So I'll phrase it this
way for you, Garth, I wouldn't play Wyoming's team total
under in this instance. I think there's too many elements
from a fundamental standpoint that this game could get a
little bit up and down, and Wyoming could get some
open floor and be able to scorey fact and it
could get I tell you what, this game could get
a little physical where you end up on the foul line.
San Diego States not you know, not against being very
physical with teams. And I think you talked about maybe
potential for whistles in the Texas game, Adam. Potential for
whistle here would help Wyoming as well to get up
and over this number.
Speaker 1: I want to I want to clarify something because like,
just because I say that it's crazy that that I
wouldn't bet the number where it is, that does not
mean I really like San Diego State. That's That's what
the great thing is about being on our side of
the counter, rob. We don't have to bet every game.
We don't have to put a number out for every game.
You know, we you know, we have a slate like
this or maybe bet two or three of them. Now
by you says Wyoming plus two and a half, Now,
that doesn't surprise me at all personally. I made the
number five and a half here san Diego minus San
Diego State minus five and a half. Now you you
might say, wow, drag, that's a pretty big edge based
on you know what, what where the number is and
where you have it. But for me, like it's still
you still have to go win and Laramie in altitude,
Wyoming's definitely played. You know. The thing that probably keeps
me off of this one and wanting to take a
shot with the road team at a cheap price here
it is the fact that last year Wyoming was really
close both times to knocking off San Diego State. I
think it was like a two point game and a
three point game. They were right there in both of
them and lost. I feel like I won one of them.
I had a but again, last year I played Wyoming.
I remember in this matchup, and I was getting like
a considerable number, probably getting like three four possessions. You know,
now you're looking at plus two and a half pretty
much having to win the game. That's where it's like,
you know, if it isn't a tight game, I just
I trust Brian Dutcher and the way, you know, San
Diego State just more of a winning pedigree. So I
think I very slightly leaned San Diego State. But me personally,
I'm not going to take a shot in altitude. I
just don't. I don't like it enough and I don't
like the San Diego State team enough to uh, you know,
to want to make that play on the road and
buy you makes a good point. San Diego State hosts
New Mexico on Saturday. Very much could be a look ahead.
That's been a big matchup in this conference the last
few years, and yeah that it makes it challenging and
I feel like it's just you're gonna get this a
lot in conference play Shane. This is exactly like Shane
puts in a perfect segue. So it's we're gonna go
right to this game, Rob because this is kind of
illustrating my point. He says, can we talk North Carolina?
And this is like I'm in the same boat here
where it's like, Okay, you have to respect the fact
that North Carolina is heading out west here right the
ACC of course, ACC, this is the Stanford Cardinal and
the ACC North Carolina is gonna make the west coast trip.
But if you can get past them having to go
out west, to me, they're like a significantly better team
than Stanford. And unless you know, you might be without Stanford,
might be without Chishomapara in this game, I read that
would be concerning. I don't think it totally negates what
Stanford wants to do. But still he's been good for them.
So again, like, if you can get past North Carolina
having to play on the road, doesn't that seem like
a cheap price for the Tarhells to you?
Speaker 2: It does? I mean, especially from a matchup standpoint. We'll
go way back and again I said this yesterday and
we'll just we'll probably repeat this throughout the week. But
for those who are, you know, at this point in time,
tuning into college basketball because there's nothing really else to
bet on these weeknights other than college and NBA hoop.
The North Carolina side we've talked about hasn't an incredibly
lengthy front line. Three six tens are better, which matches
up really well against Stanford, who, for what it's worth,
is basically riding on the coattails of their point guard
to Corey, and North Carolina is gonna have a way
to stop or at least contain o Corey even at home.
I think you're right, you have to get past the
road swing. It's happening in the Big Ten tonight as well.
Michigan's going to go to Washington because the Big Ten
has this thing where they need West Coast teams invading
the East and the Midwest and vice versa. But in
this instance, Adam, I look back at what Stanford did
on the road this week in the Virginia duo Virginia
Tech Virginia, and they really didn't score. They didn't get
the seventy points in either game. And immediately, you know,
I went to the box scores and I think, what
I get from it without seeing the full broadcast of
either Stanford game against Virginia. Is o'crey becomes a marked
man in this league. And when you don't have enough
options offensively, which I don't think Stanford does, especially, you know,
he can't attack the rim against these guys, and where
are your offensive options against North Carolina? So for me,
I think the ACC is tuned in to where Stanford's
offensive strength is, and North Carolina certainly should be able
to go on the road and prevent it. And North
Carolina has really gotten good offensive efforts as of late.
I mean in the beginning of the year, I had
some doubts about their scoring capability, but I don't know
that I have those anymore after seeing what they've done
first couple of games here in the ACC. I think
North Carolina's probably a good side. I think better than that.
North Carolina team total is probably good as well. So
for me, being a totals guy, would probably lean that way.
But I'm not going to argue anybody off of playing
the tar Heels in this matchup.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I had Apara with question marks by him, so
that's obviously something to keep an eye on throughout the day.
I think he played in their most recent game, but
I read somewhere that he may be questionable for tonight.
You talk about North Carolina and the size up front,
I mean he certainly. I don't think. I don't think
Stanford has no chance without him, but he's certainly a
big body upfront that they would be without if he's
not if he's not in here. Again, this is very
similar to the last game we talked about, where I
make the number UNC minus five and a half. So
at three there's definitely lying value, but you have to
get over, you know, the fact that they're going to
have to head out west. I think Bayu made a
good point. I don't think they had to do it
last year, so I think the powers that be that
make the schedule in the ACC may be spared them
from having to make this trip. Last season. We've seen
teams struggle rob This is again completely anecdotal. I feel
like the West Coast teams struggle more coming east than
vice versa. Do you feel that way a little bit?
I think it's harder for the West Coast team to
come out here. I don't know. Again, I may have
made that up, but this is just like off of memory.
We've got what you know Ucla, which I guess this
is a good segue here. But UCLA plays at Penn
State tonight. We can talk about that game. Feels like
they always struggle when they have to come out East.
I didn't know. Like again, I think it's just notable
either way. Like making the cross country trip midweek not
necessarily easy. But you know, if you and se can
overcome that, I think they've got an edge there.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's on Hubert Davis and the staff right
to have the team ready, which I have faith in.
But to your point, Adam, I'm trying to think and
without having any you know, data points in front of
me to prove yes or no. If I just go
to the college football angle, which is the same, you know,
teams traveling west to East the first time around East
had a real hard time or West had a real
hard time coming east. Second year in college football a
little bit of a you know, it neutralized itself a
little bit here. If North Carolina didn't do it as
by you said last year, then you know, to do
something new like that. I mean, Maples isn't the easiest
place to play when Stanford's good I just don't know
that they have enough options to keep up. And like
you said, if a porps doesn't play. I talked about
the defensive end for North Carolina being rim protectors with
their bigs, but the scoring on the offensive end without
Stanford having one of their size pieces is incredibly stronger
as well. So I don't know. I think North Carolina
win or loose, should get themselves up and over this
team total, which by the way is seventy three and
a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, if I was gonna play it, I'd lay the
three with the heels. I just think they're better. And
people are joking in the chat, Yeah, this isn't This
isn't Maple's pavilion from the nineties when like Tiger would
show up and I think Stanford at one point. I
think Stanford at one point got got to one in
the country. I remember there's a famous buzzer beater. I
think they beat Arizona. This has got to be like
late nineties and like the entire crowd like spilled out
onto the floor. Yeah that that hasn't been the case
at Naples Million for a hot minute. So I don't think.
I don't give them much of a bump for like
home court, the bump would be the travel let's garth.
I see you there, and I want to talk about
the game that you uh brought up. Now that my
super chats are starred Rob, they trying to think of
the name of that super chet. But but I kind
of tease talking about UCLA Penn State, and I feel
like while we're like belaboring the point of like really
having to pay the tax for the home team, do
you really want to pay the tax with Penn State.
I kind of thought that number was a little light,
but cronin UCLA has struggled in this spot big time
coming east, So I don't know, maybe you know in
Penn State to their to their defense has played some
tough teams in the Big Ten, and they've played well,
even though I don't think they have a league win yet.
So Ucla Penn State interesting one. Do you think Penn
State can get a win tonight? Or do you like Ucla? There?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I cross this game off, Adam, and I'll tell
you why because as difficult as it might be for
UCLA to come east, I just after the two last
two efforts that Penn State has had within a bucket
of Michigan and then to play perdue the way they
did the other day to eight points, and I guess
you could even move it up one game to playing
a really nice game against Illinois, maybe three of the
most difficult teams you could play in that league, probably
the three most difficult teams you could play in that
league other than Michigan State. How much do they Is
it a confidence builder? Here's my question twenty twenty. Hindsight
is always the answer. We don't have that right now,
But are those games confidence builders for a team to
come home and knock somebody off like UCLA or those
games so taxing, so draining that they don't have that
type of effort in them tonight. And I don't think
you know until you know the opening jump and we
see what happens here. So for me, it would be
more of an endgame. But I will say this, Mike
Rhodes has this team on the rise. That's for sure.
The game against Michigan, And maybe that was a little prelude, Adam,
because right after that Michigan fell to Wisconsin, right, So
maybe we had miss at least myself. I won't count
everybody else in this boat, but maybe I had Michigan
on this pedestal where they were not just best in
the nation, but had a little distance between other teams
at the top in college basketball. Maybe that's not the case.
Certainly league play can take that out of you in
a minute. It did. I would love to see Penn State.
Here's a couple of things that work against them. Their
field goal percentage against defective field goal percentage against is
one of the worst in college basketball. So you see
and scare mc cronin his guys, His top three guys
all have scoring capabilities. So I almost wonder if this
game doesn't become an over adam because Penn State playing
with a little of that Mike Rhodes pace Offensively, they
like to get their shots off quick. UCLA. If I'm
Mick Cronin and we've had enough history with him, I
think you go on the road and you try to
lean on your defense and slowing the game down. Whether
or not you can do that at Penn State is
another question. I generally think the home team controls pace
more than twenty minutes, But it's a difficult game for
me because I don't know the answer to where Penn
State's focus energy is going to be here tonight. Do
they have another do they have a fourth game in
a row in them? I'm not sure. Ucla seems to
be rounding into form a little bit now, Like you say,
two road games in the league, lose at Iowa by thirteen,
lose that with Constant by eight. Not much to go
on there that's positive either.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one of those things where it's like no
moral victories, right, I heard that thrown around in the
Seaton Hall, Yukon post game a little bit. It's like,
you know, Penn State, Yeah, they've played some good teams
tough and haven't gotten crushed, but they didn't win any
of those games, and you almost have to wonder how
much that took out of you, right, Like they've they've
had a couple of really big efforts back to back
to back, you know, even right over the weekend having
to go to west Lap or going to west Lap
yet and playing Purdue to a pretty competitive final. Now
they have to turn around and it's like, for me,
I don't mind taking a shot with Penn State because
UCLA has been bad in this spot, but it's another
one where man, I wish I feel like I should
be getting like at least another bucket. You know, you
give me like Penn State plus six and a half year,
I may take that shot at three and a half.
I just don't know that you're getting enough line value you.
I just think there's like too much being baked into
home court. And that's another one. Bryce Jordan Centers has
not exactly been the craziest home court atmosphere in recent years,
especially especially not for like a non traditional, like huge
Big ten team. You know, if they if it was
like Michigan State coming to town and they're like top
ten or Ohio State, I feel like they get like
a big, big turnout. I don't know that UCLA gets
that type of draw there for them. So again that's
the I feel like with those three games in a row,
like we we kind of illustrated the point where it's
like this is really going to be a thing at
least these first couple of weeks of conference play where
I think that the home court you're really gonna have
to like evaluate is the home court worth as much
as the books say are saying it is, because otherwise
you're you're gonna end up stuck with like some bad
numbers on home teams in my opinion, all right, before
we move on again, we will start to lock in place.
We will have a parlay. I ruined the parlay yesterday
with Grand Cannon, but we're right about even on the year.
We're gonna try another two teamer for today. I think
we think we earned at least one more day of
trying the two team or Rob with that win on Monday,
for all of our plays, I've already got a four
percent play locked in for today. You can get that.
Just get the joint package myself, Rob, all the plays
you make for three days, I'm going for my sixth
straight four percent win. I'll put it up individually as well,
but it's a far better deal to just do the
joint package. So that's what I'm gonna promo here, Rob,
anything to promo for yourself any football for the weekend?
You what do you got going on?
Speaker 2: I don't have it up yet, but it's gonna go
up probably between this evening and tomorrow at least one
NFL play, Adam, I think these NFL plays, now that
we're down to four games, you can do the work
a little bit earlier in the week and come to
some conclusions I'm waiting on a couple of injury weather
reports here before I officially go up with that, But
I mean the promotional stuff. I think basically I set
off the top. It's been a really really solid college
hoop run since December, the first about twenty six units
playing very small incremental percentages of bankroll. Here. I think
you said it best. We looked it up and it's
called double the Firepower. That's the package you want to
look at. Double the CBB Firepower. Myself and Adam combined
for three days, and I tell you the truth, any
three days in college hoop is pretty good. You see
what this schedule, even though Monday was a dud, Tuesday
and Wednesday as far as schedule is concerned in watchable
games where Monday was all extra board games, you get
a lot of action during the week in college basketball
no matter what three days you pick. So again, I
would focus on that particular package here, Adam. I don't
know I should know the price. I mean, I know
the name of the package and I know how long.
I think the price is fifty nine dollars for three
days for both of us. I'm not positive of that
could be ten bucks higher. It's no more than ten
bucks higher. I'll put it that way. So go ahead
and get involved if you want to extend what you
hear here on the show for sixty minutes.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go. This is since we didn't really
I feel like we didn't have like a super definitive
answer for Garth on that San Diego State Wyoming game,
he asked about another one. This one I have a
little bit more of an opinion on, and we'll hit
this conference. So Garth says, any thoughts on Tulsa Charlotte.
He likes this Tulsa team a lot. Garth, I like
this Tulsa team a lot too. I kind of said
it from the beginning of the season. I talked about
Tulsa as early as the Rhode Island game they won,
and then before the Kansas State game they should have
won it was an easy cover. Well. I was actually
at their game last week in Debton, Texas against North Texas.
They lost that game. I feel like they kind of
rob hit the first bump in the road. You know,
that was the first game where they kind of got
punched in the mouth in the second half, didn't have
an answer. I felt like North Texas was the better
team in that game, deserved to win that game. And
then over the weekend, where it would have been a
spot where I would have thought Tulsa would have bounced back,
they drew a really tough matchup with South Florida, a
team that's going to play a certain style, and I
just don't think. I guess the thing for Tulsa that
I've noticed, and my buddy Truman is in the chat
we were at the game together. He pointed this out
and we're at the game, is that they kind of
lack some interior defensive toughness. And I think South Florida
really got to the rim against them, because that's what
South Florida does. They're NATO's two point zero Alabama. You know,
just try to run right at the rim, and I
think they were able to do that against Tulsa, score
ninety three points and hand them their second straight loss.
Much easier ask in my opinion here for Tulsa. My
number was right on online with this, but I kind
of think that Tulsa maybe bounces back here. Charlotte can
can be decent. I think they're on the ascent a
little bit, rob but I don't know if Tulsa lose
a Street three straight games. So I'm kind of in
with Tulsa being the the side I would pick in
this game. Anything for you for Garth Tulsa Charlotte.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Garth I would be. I give you
a slight lean here towards the under in this game.
One fifty one fifty and a half seems a little
bit high to me, with Charlotte being the home team
and playing at this snail's pace that they do, and
just knowing that that Tulsa had to go on the
road to North Texas the same snails pace type team
and the game only got to one thirty nine eleven
points less than what we see here. I feel like
Tulsa probably can't defend Charlotte as well as they defended
North Texas. And I guess the key to betting side
here is do you think that that contrast in style,
Tulsa definitely wants to play quicker than North Texas? Did
they definitely want to play quicker than Charlotte? Did? It
seemed to bother them a little bit at North Texas.
Do you learn from that or does it bother you
again when you're on the road against the same thing. Interesting,
it's hard when you don't have more than one real
league instance to point at in order to make that decision.
But I do think one fifty and a half is
probably too high for me to play an over. I
do think it probably sits somewhere in the one forties
in this game, you know something where the whole where
the winning team comes up with seventy four as their
winning score, I wouldn't be surprised at Also to me,
that plays toward the under.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think those are both reasonable takes. And again,
you know, I see, I see some uh. I lost
my one screen. I'm down to one screen today. But
I think Charlotte maybe did take a little bit of
money if that gets knocked down. So someone's been betting
against Tulsa the last couple of games. The game I
went to last Sunday, North Texas absolutely got slammed. Definitely
was a sharp side in that game, which kind of
made sense because that probably opened, like if you want,
just just for a reference point, right, Tulsa opened minus
four and a half at North Texas like ten days ago.
North Texas is a far superior team to Charlotte in
my opinion, even though Charlotte's been good. They've strung together
a couple of wins, the win over which toa state
was nice. That got bet down to like two and
a half North Texas covered, so basically like ten days late. Like,
I don't think Tulsa as a team has changed a
whole lot in ten days. I think they just had
a couple tough matchups and now basically the books are like, Okay,
you can have Tulsa at the same price that we
were going to give you against North Texas. Like, I
think just that loan maybe shows a little value on
the tall SA side because they're they're playing a lesser
team here in my opinion, So especially that if that
follows the same pattern and Charlotte takes a little bit
of money as a dog, which is possible they've taken
money as an underdog in recent weeks. Let's say this
got down to like Tulsa minus three, I think that's
a pretty good bet. If you can get like Tulsa
minus three or better, I think that's a good bet.
I was at like four point nine or something here
on the number, So that's what I'd be looking for
to jump in with the tall socide all right, let's
see here, Rob Vino, do you have any idea what
you want to lock in? I'm still kind of there's
a lot of games. I haven't really picked one yet.
I didn't know if you had an idea of a
game you wanted to go to, even if it's not
a game you want to use for the parlay. Do
you have a game you want to talk about?
Speaker 2: Well, I'll say this for the parlay, I'm down to
two and I'll just give them both to the audience
right now, and maybe I'll make the decision within the
next ten minutes which I like better. But the FIU
Kennesaw State game over the total which is pretty high
one seventy and a half one seventy one. If I
go to choose that one, I'll give you my reasoning why,
and then I feel like in a bounce back. Oh
and I'm just looking here as we speak, Tulsa and
Charlotte has been hit to the under pretty much universally,
down to one forty nine and a half now. But
to continue what I was saying, I think the bounce
back is in effect here for Denver out of the
Summit League, their overstreak got broken. It was fifteen and
oh now it's fifteen and one. They only scored I
forget what it was against South Dakota Saturday, but they
after three away games, they get to come home here
play Roll Roberts tonight. I may get to that game
total too. Give me just a couple more minutes to
figure out which I like best, and then we'll go
ahead and give one of those two to the to
the audience.
Speaker 1: All right, well, I mean I'll I guess I'll pick.
So we already talked Tulsa Charlotte, I'll pick. Let's let's
just stay on that Oral Roberts Denver game, just just
to do something different, get a little Summit League action
and and we'll we'll break it down. Yeah, we can
lock in plays at the end of the game. But like,
this game is interesting to me because, you know, we
kind of had the conversation about Denver last week a
couple of different times. Right ahead of the Saint Thomas game.
They got the cover there, uh sand upsp excuse me,
South Dakota State again. We noted that Denver was starting
to maybe not be as big of an underdog as
they were in previous games. Went off eight and a half.
They just tucked inside the number there, lost that game
by eight. Suddenly you're looking at laying eight and a
half with Denver. So like there's been a pretty big swim.
This has been a team that's done very well as
a dog a lot of this year, even go back
to the non conference huge win for them at Colorado
State as a big underdog. Covered that. They've had a
handful of coverage, a one at North Northern Colorado that
was another underdog win, covered a big number against the
Tulsa team that we just talked about. But Rob, now
they're at home laying eight and a half. Sometimes I
don't like that profile when a team's done really well
as an underdog and now suddenly they flipped to being
a big home favorite. It's not I typically don't want
to back them as a big favorite. So just talk
to me a little bit about that and then maybe
your analysis on where you do want to go in
this game, Denver or Roberts.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's you know, and again I'll say that in
the NBA, we do use as a handicapping angle, first
game home after a long road trip, which is the
situation Denver's in today. I don't know that it applies
as much in college, because in college you have such
a wide variance margin of separation between teams. In the NBA,
you know, guys go out on a five game road trip,
four game road trip and then come back home and
get their affairs back in order, and the first game
is generally not one where they play very well. And
when I say generally, I mean, you know, better than
fifty percent of the time you can bet on the
other side and probably win here. I think Denver's probably
happy to be back home or Roberts is not a
team that's won a lot here recently, and they haven't
necessarily come close. The North Dakota State game on the
road was pretty good when you take them to doublet
that's kind of impressive. Whether or not I want to
lay points with Denver, though, with the ridiculously poor defense
that they have is another issue. I mean, Denver, for
what it's worth, they rode that fifteen to oh overstreak
as a one trick pony, right, it's all scoring, it's
no defense. We're going to outscore you. And they tried
against South Dakota. Didn't work. It finally stayed under and
the odds makers obviously have caught up, right. That's the
key to our business here is when did the odds
makers finally catch up to something that wasn't seen to
start a season. So for this game, I think I
would still look over. I think Oral Roberts can put
enough up, and Denver certainly is going to put their
share up. But I'll lock in now in our parlay
Adam with the other game that I talked about fill.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, let's let's do this, rob But because if
you're not going to go to this game for the parlay,
I'm gonna take this game for the parlat. I'm gonna
take Roberts. I'm gonna take Oral Roberts plus the points,
and then we'll go to your game and do the
full breakdown of that FIU game. I just I'm about
three and a half points off where the market is here.
I can you tell me what the is this eight
and a half or not? What do we got right
now for this game across eight and a half. I
think I saw eight and a half too. I just
want to make sure I'm not giving out a stale number.
But while you while you just confirm what the number
is and I'll get my screen back here in a second,
I'm about three and a half points off where the
market is. Or Roberts has played much better of late,
Like if you you know, they they've just been far
more competitive kind of since conference play started. You know,
I know they didn't cover against Saint Thomas, but I
didn't feel like they played poor. Like that's a that's
a good Saint Thomas team, and that's a team that
you know will slow, will slow you down, defend you
like I feel like there, remember if you go back
to the beginning of the year, everyone thought Saint Thomas
in this league was going to like run away with
the league. So you know, they're a team that I
think maybe even be maybe a little bit undervalued coming
into conference play. I didn't think or Roberts played terrible.
That was the last game that was their most recent game.
It was a three point game at half Saint Thomas
ends up winning by eleven, but I don't think it
was like a not non competitive game. The game before
that is the one you referenced double ot loss at
North Dakota State. Pretty solid performance game before that. Yeah,
they lose on the road to North Dakota, but again
they didn't get They're really not getting crushed in these
games in my opinion, even though there's a couple of
eleven point losses in there. Going back to your point,
Denver to get enough stops to not like even give
them a chance to kind of creep through the back door.
If it isn't a competitive game. Competitive game, I feel like,
give a couple of different ways to cover this. Or
Roberts comes out, plays good, potentially plays good enough to win.
It feels like they're almost due to get, you know,
to have one go their way and not. On the
other side, Denver could be up ten eleven and you
have to worry about them just giving up a couple
of points to let you back in on eight and
a half. So correlates with what you kind of were
looking at. I'll take or Roberts plus eight and a
half from my lege at the parlay. All right, let's
go to let's go to Conference USA. Rob. I texted
you this weekend. You kind of said, man, I wonder
what the because we talked about travel in this league,
and yeah, I think as we were going off air
on Friday, You're like, man, I wonder what the home
road splits are? And then on Saturday. At one point
I was like, they're literally it's like twenty and four
to the home team. At least this was at some
point on Saturday. Now I know late Saturday, Middle Tennessee
went on the road and won, and I'm sure it's like,
you know, it could have changed a little bit, but
I definitely think there's something to that. In this league
with Delaware Florida International down in Miami, you got to
go out to El Paso. Las crusis all over the place,
So we're gonna head to Conference Usay, this is Florida International,
I believe taking on Missouri State. Is that the matchup here?
Kennesaw Kennesaw State, Yeah, sorry, Florida International, Kannessas State the
Flora's yours.
Speaker 2: Yeah. And the point I'm gonna make it a reason
why I like this is because obviously these two teams
prefer I won't even say preferred. They have to have
a certain pace, which is extreme tempo. Ballard's team has
been that way FYU for as long as he's been
tenured there is head coach, and Kennesaw has become that
way this year. I think they're the seventh fasted fastest
adjusted offensive tempo in the nation. But for FIU, you know,
when you get bottled up, which they've been in their
last three games by teams that want to slow you
down UTEP, Jacksonville State, Missouri State, and you can't get
out and play your preferred pace, it kind of is
frustrating for a team that's not that good. Right, Florida
International can score a lot of points, but when push
comes to shove and you're asked to play out of
style and you're not overly talented, it becomes an issue. Well,
it became an issue in those three games, right, All
of a sudden, the team that wants to play mid
seventies to high seventy possessions gets knocked down to sixty seven,
gets knocked down the sixty five against Missouri State seventy one.
All three of those games stay one fifty or lower.
Here they get Kennesau State, where this is gonna be
absolute track meet. You know, the opening number was far
better here, sixty one to sixty eight and a half.
We can get one seventy one in this game. I
still think eighty six a side is not out of
the question here, And I'll back that up by saying
Kenesau State played those same slow tempo teams that I
just mentioned two of them in their most recent two
games Missouri State, Jacksonville State and Kenesaus State here on
their home floor got those teams to one seventy each.
If you can get those teams to one seventy on
your home floor, then certainly you can get Florida International
to one seventy two because they're gonna play your temple.
They actually forced those two teams, Missouri State and Jacksonville
State out of their comfort zone. That's how you know
I can talk about who can dictate, who can dictate tempo.
Kennesesau State's showing you that on their home floor, they're
going to dictate tempo against anybody, whether you come in
as a sixty four possession team or not, you're going
to play our way. Florida International loves to play their way.
I think we get more than enough scoring opportunities here,
which is what you need when you play over So
give me the over here, Adam Kennesaw State FIU, which
will be more than happy finally to break out of
the doldrums of playing a bunch of tortoises and say, okay,
this is much more what we like over one seventy one.
In that game, I'll take as part of the parlay.
Speaker 1: Listen, I got to go down to FIU last year
towards the end of the season, caught an FIU game,
watched them pretty intently the final like two to three,
you know, a couple weeks of the season, and you
know in the offseason like this happened sometimes like that.
FIU is not a good basketball team. Last year they
were near the bottom of this league and they lost
a lot of they they lost a lot of their
best players, and I almost feel like they were unnecessarily
penalized for that coming into this year. It's like, listen,
when you're a bad team, why do you care if
you lost your quote unquote best players like you were?
You were bad, right, so don't you don't you want
new players like at that point? And I kind of
felt I kind of felt like that's what happened with
Florida International. Now why I'm bringing that up is I
feel like the books almost penalized them, slatch them. I
believe ended up at TCU. I know Deshaun Gidden's transferre
to the MAC. He's been on Sacred Heart his brother
is an assistant coach there. He's been really good there.
But but of course that's a step down conference to USA,
down to the MAC, and you know, they kind of
lost their better players. So Florida International has, in my opinion,
come into the year as of bottom option, and I
kind of felt like they were good. I looked at
this team, watch them play a couple times earlier in
the year, So this team's probably going to be better
than they are last year, and they certainly have. I mean,
if you look at like, you know that their offensive
numbers are pretty good. I think they've been competitive in
a lot of games that they should be competitive in.
You know, field goal percentage top one hundred nationally. They're
scoring eighty four point eight points per game, shoot the three,
you know, reasonably well. Kennesaw State's a really good rebounding team.
But FIU gets after it on the glass. They're not
just going to get crushed there on the glass. I
guess my point is from the side perspective, I think
this could be a pretty competitive game, and yeah, they
probably are going to play more of the style that
you know, f i u's probably in a more favorable
type of game here. Than they've been recently, So I
think you get a competitive game rob that gets over
the total. Here. I leaned toward the Panthers, but I
gotta be honest after texting with you this week, and
I'm kind of terrified to take a road team at
a small number in this league.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's funny too, because I think Delaware on Saturday
wound up? Did they win straight up on the road?
Because I immediate when you sent the text, I immediately
looked I should pull the true you're on Delaware? It
was close to tip off time in that game, so
I didn't, but I remember they covered. I just can't
remember if they won straight up in that game, so.
Speaker 1: I know, I know I won straight up on Saturday
night with Middle Tennessee State on the road at New Mexico.
So again, that could that could come back to the mean,
but I don't think it's There's definitely some merit to
like how many miles these teams are logging this year now,
Kennesaw to Florida International probably one of the shorter trips
in the league, right, Like, that's actually pretty reasonable travel.
Kennesaw in Georgia, somewhere FIU down in Miami, but uh, Rob,
give me that number on the on the total one
more time to be fair to everybody out there. One
seventy one guys, you can shop it and still maybe
find a stray one seventy and a half. But I
don't think you'll have any problem clearing one seventy one.
Speaker 2: And and you know, just real quick to sum up
what we were talking about with CUSA teams and travel
and traveling, you know, it's a good thing, Adam. Two.
If a team is successful as a visitor with long
travel the first game, you know, they go and they
play back to backs, maybe coming back against them in
the second game is still something an angle that we
should be looking at throughout the season if they do
win the first game. But it's a good like I say,
twenty and four. Who the heck's gonna argue with twenty
and four heading And even if there were a couple
of road wins on Saturday, it's still a very very
good percentage of winning if you're playing against those teams
doing the amount of traveling that like Delaware had to
do this past weekend.
Speaker 1: All right, real quick, we have someone asking can you
can we do a package through March madness maybe we'll
certainly ask about that. But I'll tell you what, if
you email customer support and ask, they'll they'll definitely make
you one, and they'll probably give you a better price
than whatever they would post that on the website. So
that's a that's a little like hack here Wajer talk
hack for long term stuff. Just email the girls at
Customer Support and they you know they're gonna they'll they'll
give it away at whatever they possibly can, at the
best possible rate. You just show them some love email
and tell them how they how great of a job
they do, because they really are the best customer customer
support support staff, Rob, I can't speak right now. Customer
support staff in the game, and they'll give you that package.
You'll just do it for you. Okay, let's get one
more in here. We've got a few minutes left. Half
the chat is talking about Auburn Missouri, the Battle of
the Tigers. Uh, this is a pretty intriguing game to me.
I had a winner over the weekend fading Missouri with
Ole miss Rob. You know, I kind of want to
fade them again here. I guess Auburn I'm in the
same boat with Texas, where It's like, did I just
did I just miss their huge performance?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: They had that big win over the weekend against Arkansas.
But I just think Auburn's the better team, and I
think this kind of sets up for another Auburn win.
What do you think, Auburn Tigers, Missouri Tigers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And just from the other perspective, it's kind of
hard to discount the Missoo's side, seeing the way Florida
has played the last couple of games and knowing that
the one game prior to these two outbursts, Missouri beat
Florida on this floor seventy six, seventy four. So Missoo's
been a little bit up and down. With the offense, Adam,
I don't know that they have the amount of offensive
weaponry that Auburn does. It kind of comes and goes
their Knights when you watch, and there's enough support for
Mark Mitchell in that offense. Maybe some Knights Jacob Cruz
is banging the threes and they're scoring pretty well, but
there's Knights where the threes go dry, and Dennis Gates
the team doesn't have enough officer. I think this one's
gonna get up and down. I'll tell you where I
was really really surprised, not necessary surprised that the total
open one fifty nine and immediate money took it downward,
but to the lengths that they're taking it downward now.
As we were talking here on the show, I saw
one fifty three and a half, and I think I
have to jump in at one fifty three and a
half and push back because Auburn is an incredibly good
team when they're playing ninety.
Speaker 1: Four feet of basketball.
Speaker 2: They're not as good setting up in the half court
this year, but you watch them play the last couple
of games, and when they can get games in the
open floor, Missouri will go with them. They do well.
So because we're real short on time here, I will
just close up real quick by saying I'm looking at
playing this total over because I think they pushed it
down too far.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would agree with that. I think Arkansas or
I think Auburn. Sorry, I was looking at their schedule,
looking at Auburn schedule with ALT like they have played
a really tough schedule Houston, Michigan, Saint John's earlier in
the season, NC State, Arizona, Purdue, Georgia, Arkansas, Like that's
a really tough schedule that they've played, and I just
think they're going to be able to score here. I
had my reasons for wanting to go against Missouri over
the weekend that came to fruition, and you know, watching
that game, I was like, man, all this kind of
is kind of bad. And they still sort of took
it to Missouri in the second half. Auburn a much
better team. I could only come back with Auburn in
that matchup. Yeah, we are up against it, but you know,
try to try to get to a couple more games today.
I know there's a bunch we didn't get to. It
is a huge slate. You know, we do the best
we can with an hour. The nice thing is, if
you know, if you're looking for more opinions, we've got them.
They're part of our package. So check that out. It
is three days myself, you know, all the plays we
make for three days. I'll certainly have a couple today.
The four percent I have locked in. We did not
talk about it on the show. We do have a
parlay and someone asked, do you mind that, No, that
Denver got met up, No, I want to play against that.
I don't think den should be an eight and a
half point favorite in this game, So I'm gonna go
Oral Roberts for my parlay Lade and Robino is gonna
go Florida International Tennesa State over one pin seventy one.
That's the two team for today. We'll be back ten
am tomorrow to talk more college troops. We'll see you
guys then