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Speaker 1: Hey twenty nine here if your bove KCD talk station,
Speaker 1: good time to be tuned in because every week at
Speaker 1: this time, good to hear from Daniel Davis to win
Speaker 1: the Daniel Davis Steve Dive. You can find his podcast
Speaker 1: out there in the world where your podcast, Daniel Davis.
Speaker 1: Good to see you, my friend. At least I can
Speaker 1: see you my listeners camp, but they can hear you.
Speaker 1: Welcome back, Welcome, thanks for having me back.
Speaker 3: Man.
Speaker 4: I almost had to do therapy for mission you last week,
Speaker 4: so eager to get back going today.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I was.
Speaker 1: Uh, every once in a while I got to take
Speaker 1: a day off, and I certainly miss our conversations. And
Speaker 1: I presume you at least Gauge engaged in some reflection
Speaker 1: on those who paid the ultimate sacrifice and service for
Speaker 1: their country yesterday, Memorial Day.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I indeed I do.
Speaker 4: I do that all the time, and obviously that's what
Speaker 4: we're supposed to do on that day. So I always,
Speaker 4: you know, harken back to that and respect the sacrifice
Speaker 4: they've been paid by so many, especially by the family
Speaker 4: members who still survive, and just always want to reinforce
Speaker 4: the message all that day that let's make sure we
Speaker 4: don't ever make unnecessary sacrifices to our country by asking
Speaker 4: them to die for causes that have nothing to do
Speaker 4: with our national security.
Speaker 1: Yeah, or causes that are just seemingly crazy. And then
Speaker 1: speaking of crazy, Donald Trump has suggested Bladimir and Putin,
Speaker 1: in his words, has gone absolutely crazy.
Speaker 3: Is that crazy like a Fox? Or is he unhinged?
Speaker 3: Daniel Davis?
Speaker 1: Because some of me thinks it's based upon our prior
Speaker 1: conversations and my observations and reporting in the news, it's
Speaker 1: more crazy like a Fox.
Speaker 4: Well listen, I mean, I was a bit perplexed because
Speaker 4: in that both the truth socialist Trump posted as well
Speaker 4: as his comments that he made there before he got
Speaker 4: back on Air Force One, he talked about how he
Speaker 4: was really surprised, etc.
Speaker 3: That Russia was doing that.
Speaker 4: And I don't understand why he would be surprised, why
Speaker 4: anyone would be surprised, because Russia is doing exactly what
Speaker 4: they've said they were going to do. They said they
Speaker 4: will not have a thirty day unconditional ceasefire. They will
Speaker 4: keep fighting and keep talking at the same time they
Speaker 4: want a negotiated settlement on their terms, or they'll simply
Speaker 4: keep fighting for it. And listen, Also, this this drone
Speaker 4: attack in Takiv that Trump was so animated about, is
Speaker 4: the fact that there has been back and forth, for
Speaker 4: going back to the several days, like five or six
Speaker 4: days in a row, Ukraine launched hundreds, like seven or
Speaker 4: eight hundred drones into Russia, tried to attack into Moscow.
Speaker 4: Moscow retaliated every day. So it's a back and forth deal.
Speaker 4: It's a war, and both sides are continuing to fight,
Speaker 4: So I'm not sure why anyone would be surprised by
Speaker 4: these sequence of events.
Speaker 1: Well, and you know something you and I talked about before,
Speaker 1: and is the expense of launching missiles to knock down
Speaker 1: drones or other missiles from the sky. And as I
Speaker 1: read now, the drone attacks feature in an array of
Speaker 1: decoy projectiles that I'm meant to intimidate drone strikes, but
Speaker 1: don't carry explosives. So Ukraine starts shooting at objects which
Speaker 1: don't have any destructive power. But there's no way for
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians to know whether or not they have they're
Speaker 1: armed or not. But obviously that frees up an opportunity
Speaker 1: for other drones to fill in the holes and attack
Speaker 1: the targets. I don't This is modern warfare, and I
Speaker 1: don't know how it's going to evolve down the road,
Speaker 1: but this it seems to make perfect sense to me
Speaker 1: that you would use, you know, a bunch of fake
Speaker 1: ones in there in the mix with the real ones
Speaker 1: increasing the likelihood you're gonna actually hit your target.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 3: And that's the problem that you really illuminated there that
Speaker 3: from the Ukraine.
Speaker 4: Side they have no idea which is which because a
Speaker 4: lot of them are what's called repurposed S three hundred
Speaker 4: and anti aircraft missiles and they look just like incoming
Speaker 4: missiles on the radar screen.
Speaker 3: You can't tell the.
Speaker 4: Difference, but part but they're just basically rocket motors that
Speaker 4: are flying in the air and you have to or
Speaker 4: even the slow drones, there's a medium speed drones, et cetera.
Speaker 4: All these things require you either have to shoot them
Speaker 4: down or they're going to strike their target. And what
Speaker 4: we're seeing, by the way I told you, there's this big, huge,
Speaker 4: like multi hundred drone strick. In both directions. Nearly all
Speaker 4: of the ones from the Ukraine side to Russia were
Speaker 4: shot down. Hardly any made it through handful of a few.
Speaker 4: But on the Russian side, when they're firing into Ukraine,
Speaker 4: a substantial portion of both the missiles and the drones
Speaker 4: are hitting their target, and especially not before last in Odessa,
Speaker 4: there was just catastrophic damage in there, and of course
Speaker 4: you've seen the videos I'm sure from Kiev, etc. You
Speaker 4: don't see a commensurate vision on that on the Russian
Speaker 4: side because they have the air defense missiles and the
Speaker 4: Ukraine side has insufficient air defense missiles.
Speaker 3: And this point it is a math problem for the
Speaker 3: Ukraine side.
Speaker 1: Right, which continues the theme that you and I've been
Speaker 1: discussing now for what seems like months, which well, I
Speaker 1: guess it has been the lack of arms that the
Speaker 1: Ukraine has, and I guess the inability of NATO to
Speaker 1: keep up with the with the demand in the United States.
Speaker 1: Of course, I believe pairing back it's provision new weapons
Speaker 1: of Ukraine, and I see German Chancellor merce now is
Speaker 1: telling the Ukrainians that there's no longer going to be
Speaker 1: any limit on the range of the weapons that so
Speaker 1: it seems like that this is like another step toward
Speaker 1: World War three if NATO countries are providing long range
Speaker 1: missiles for Ukraine to fire deeper and deeper into Russia.
Speaker 1: And I know, I guess the military strategy as well.
Speaker 1: If they're building a bunch of these drones at a
Speaker 1: factory that's two hundred, three hundred and five hundred miles
Speaker 1: inside Russia, then of course that facility is fair game
Speaker 1: since it's funding the Russian troops or providing weapons for
Speaker 1: the Russian troops. But this is going to more directly
Speaker 1: implicate NATO and to the extent they start, you know,
Speaker 1: intruding into Russian real estate, that increases the likelihood of
Speaker 1: some kind of armed conflict, doesn't it.
Speaker 4: Well I'm glad you brought that up because the comment
Speaker 4: by Chancellor Mets, the new Russian of Russian, the new
Speaker 4: German Chancellor made a point of saying on German television
Speaker 4: yesterday that UK, France now Germany, and he said, the
Speaker 4: United States have all lifted all restrictions on all these
Speaker 4: weapons and now they can fire deep. Well here's the well,
Speaker 4: as many problems with it. They don't have that many
Speaker 4: missiles that we're talking about. Russia can launch literally hundreds
Speaker 4: per month, every single month because they have the industrial
Speaker 4: capacity of.
Speaker 3: Long range missiles.
Speaker 4: Most are a good portion of them get through but
Speaker 4: on the US and NATO side, we had probably a
Speaker 4: couple hundred total. I think there's two hundred Taurist missiles
Speaker 4: from Germany that could be put into the mix. We've
Speaker 4: already said that our attackers long range missiles. We were
Speaker 4: near the end of that at the end of the
Speaker 4: Biden administration. We don't have a lot to put in there.
Speaker 4: So why in God's name would you want to like
Speaker 4: escalate the situation by striking something deep inside Russia with
Speaker 4: one of your missiles when you know that Russia can
Speaker 4: fire ten back for every one you can shoot and
Speaker 4: risk exploding the war. Yesterday Russia said two merits, if
Speaker 4: German missiles fire deep into Russia and strike a target,
Speaker 4: we will consider that as a direct participation of Germany
Speaker 4: in the conflict and will react accordingly. They left it
Speaker 4: vague what it is, but it's very clear they could
Speaker 4: either strike Germany itself, German assets.
Speaker 3: There's no killing what they could do.
Speaker 4: But if we think that Russia is gonna allow that
Speaker 4: to happen and do nothing, I don't think we've been
Speaker 4: paying attention.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and the other component of this is a lot
Speaker 1: of the hardware that we provided to Ukraine and we've
Speaker 1: had our own people there helping them to operate it
Speaker 1: because they don't have the security clearances necessary to make
Speaker 1: the longer range missiles work. And I presume that's got
Speaker 1: to be the case with Germany's weapons systems, which means
Speaker 1: there are boots on the ground in Ukraine from foreign lands,
Speaker 1: most notably NATO countries, that are helping out in the
Speaker 1: waging of this war. I mean, you know, I don't
Speaker 1: know what the rules of engagement are all about, but
Speaker 1: that sounds to me like we're already engaged in direct conflict.
Speaker 1: Just we don't have the uniformed troops on the front
Speaker 1: line shooting with small weapons.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we just don't have them on the front line.
Speaker 4: But also, by the way, both the storm Shadow and
Speaker 4: the Taurust missiles require US help also for targeting and
Speaker 4: other telemetry data, et cetera, not just the German boots
Speaker 4: on the Kiev ground so to speak. You know where
Speaker 4: they're being launched from, so our fingerprints, even the United
Speaker 4: States is on all these missiles at fire long range.
Speaker 1: And so going back to the fort about Ukraine hitting
Speaker 1: further and further or deeper into Soviet into Solvie. Here
Speaker 1: I go again channeling backwards into Russian territory. Say they
Speaker 1: are going after the drone factory militarily. I guess that
Speaker 1: makes sense from Ukraine perspective. But if a NATO country,
Speaker 1: say Germany, is providing the war waging equipment to Ukraine,
Speaker 1: then it seems to be fair play for Russia to
Speaker 1: go ahead and bomb the factories that are making that
Speaker 1: particular type of equipment.
Speaker 4: Yeah, we don't want to ever put them in the
Speaker 4: position to make that rational calculation, because here's the thing,
Speaker 4: there is two little thought on what is the intent
Speaker 4: of using a given military a piece of hardware or
Speaker 4: a tactic.
Speaker 3: Yes, you can say from a certain.
Speaker 4: Perspective, totally legitimately that anything in Russia is fair game,
Speaker 4: because everything in Ukraine is fair game.
Speaker 3: That's one issue.
Speaker 4: But then you have to say, what is the probability
Speaker 4: of helping the Ukraine side and changing the balance of war,
Speaker 4: and what is the risk of retaliation against US and
Speaker 4: drawing US directly into the war. That's where the calculations
Speaker 4: aren't being made. They're just doing the easy one and
Speaker 4: they're not doing the harder one, which could, as you
Speaker 4: very clearly point out, cause escalation. They could actually drag
Speaker 4: us In and the last thing anybody in the West
Speaker 4: should want is the possibility of having this thing escalate
Speaker 4: what it should be, and its death throws the whole war.
Speaker 1: Indeed, every day that goes by Russian makes more and
Speaker 1: more progress insofar as it's moving movement into Ukraine, so
Speaker 1: less and less more and more land is taken by Russia.
Speaker 1: And that's where I started out with crazy like a fox,
Speaker 1: because the longer Putin drags this out and refuses to
Speaker 1: sit down at the table, the more likely it is
Speaker 1: he's gonna end up taking over the whole country if
Speaker 1: he wants to. But in terms of a peace process,
Speaker 1: any negotiation, it's still Russia's position that they will not
Speaker 1: sit down unless Ukraine agrees to disarm and disavow its
Speaker 1: desire to join NATO.
Speaker 4: Correct, that is correct, Yes, Yes, Sergey Lavrov reiterated that
Speaker 4: about four days ago in a little known clip from
Speaker 4: the West where he just categorically said, yeah, we're not
Speaker 4: even going to consider anything short of demilitarization and denoxification
Speaker 4: and of course the non NATO part two.
Speaker 3: So yes, so we're not making any forward progress here.
Speaker 3: It's there. No, the two sides continue to go in
Speaker 3: opposite directions with the.
Speaker 4: Chancellor match with this, with Zelenski continuing to talk really
Speaker 4: antagonistic toward anything Russia, continuing to say I want more stuff.
Speaker 4: You have more people on this now with Trump making
Speaker 4: these comments, more people in the US saying, you know what,
Speaker 4: more sanctions and let's do more weapons. Jack Keane was
Speaker 4: on Fox News this morning making that impassioned plea, all
Speaker 4: of which go the opposite direction of bringing this to
Speaker 4: a conclusion and increase the chance that Ukraine will ultimately
Speaker 4: be militarily defeated.
Speaker 1: Okay, real quick for we part company on sanctions is
Speaker 1: do you think that sanctions could be a potential inrow
Speaker 1: to getting the Russia to sit down and maybe take
Speaker 1: a little less stronger stance at the outset? I mean,
Speaker 1: do we have anything left in our sanctioned arsenal to
Speaker 1: give too harm to Russia?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 4: I'm not a skilled mathematician, but whatever the number less
Speaker 4: than zero is, that's the chances for the sanctions having
Speaker 4: any impact. If you've had zero for seventeen rounds of
Speaker 4: sanctions when the US was fully on board and you know,
Speaker 4: had the quote crippling sanctions and Russia weathered all that,
Speaker 4: and now their economy is growing at a faster pace
Speaker 4: than ours is. Then that tells you all you need
Speaker 4: to know that Russia has made themselves sanction proof and
Speaker 4: it is more insulting than it is effective to think
Speaker 4: that you're going to have another sanctions round that's going
Speaker 4: to do what almost four years of efforts before have
Speaker 4: failed to do.
Speaker 1: It's irrational. Didn't pull any punches on that response, Daniel Davis. Now, finally,
Speaker 1: one final question in terms of the available troops to
Speaker 1: fight the war on behalf of Ukraine, they got to
Speaker 1: be running out soon or their numbers have to be
Speaker 1: perilously small. They've lost so many people on the front lines,
Speaker 1: is do they have a well to go back to anymore. No.
Speaker 4: In fact, there's been there's been a couple of research
Speaker 4: reports issued in just the last handful of days in
Speaker 4: the West and some of Ukraine as well that have
Speaker 4: calculated that Russia, and I think it was just the
Speaker 4: last month, recruited fifty thousand troops in a single month,
Speaker 4: fifty thousand, and the casualty rate is way less than that.
Speaker 4: So by maybe ten to fifteen thousand, they're adding more
Speaker 4: troops than they are losing. But Ukraine, even with the
Speaker 4: worst mobilization where they literally take people off the streets
Speaker 4: and that's now a routine thing in Ukraine, they're not
Speaker 4: even able to offset losses.
Speaker 3: So both the.
Speaker 4: Ukraine side is shrinking every day, the quality of what
Speaker 4: they can put it up to a quarter and in
Speaker 4: some reports say that they actually flee the battlefield when
Speaker 4: they get there.
Speaker 3: And then you have the Russian side.
Speaker 4: Getting bigger, stronger, economically, industrial capacity, everything is growing. So
Speaker 4: any way you want to look at this, it's it's
Speaker 4: bad news for the Ukraine and the Western side.
Speaker 1: Daniel Davis deep Diye I find them online, get his podcast.
Speaker 1: Tune in every every Tuesday at eight thirty the fifty
Speaker 1: five KRC Morning Show. I'm not sure what we call
Speaker 1: that news, Dan, it depends on which side of this
Speaker 1: love the ledger you're on. But wow, truth it's true.
Speaker 1: There you have it. I love getting truth and we
Speaker 1: all get it from you. Until next Tuesday, my friend,
Speaker 1: have a great week.
Speaker 3: See you next time. Eight forty three fifty five kr
Speaker 3: S Detalk Station. Be right back. This is fifty five
Speaker 3: KARC and iHeartRadio station.