Speaker 1: All right, welcome in. It is time for full court press.
It's Tuesday. That means it's five dollars Tuesday at wager
talk myself, Robino, all the handicappers on the site. We'll
have at least one play up for just five dollars.
So check out the site and it should be on
every handicapper's page. Rob Do you like my zip up?
This was a gift from Arkansas Pine Bluff. I told
him I was wearing it on the show today.
Speaker 2: It is.
Speaker 1: It is only it's only my third gifted pete piece
of merch, so very excited about that. Charlton State's giving
me a bunch and then Saint Francis last year gave
me one, and my guy Cameo gave me this, so
it's getting its moment on the show. Also, how about that?
Is there a better logo than the Arkansas Pine Buff line?
Speaker 2: Is the question?
Speaker 3: It is pretty nice and I actually saw it. I
saw it on X last night in theage still so
you broke it out of the package kind of them too.
Actually supply you with a little gear here for free
to promo on the show. So like Pine Bluff result
last night they.
Speaker 1: Did great win for them last night. They they they're
now won four straight games. I believe they've started off
SWACK played two and zero, and you know, Alabama State,
I thought played well, Like that's a decent Alabama State team.
We saw them beat UAB hang around with some other
good teams. So yeah, that was It was a good
game and a good result for Pine Bluff and the
SWACK is. I feel like it's alive and well this year.
I can't remember a year where the SWACK was had
as many like kind of decent teams as they do
this year, So it should be a good year for
the conference.
Speaker 3: Good deal. I'll just gripe one second here. Last night
William and Mary apologized to the chat here. I had
that team total up and over eighty one and a
half and boy in a you've talked about it a
lot the first month at them, these close games that
don't go your way. But Kyle Pulliam at the end
of that game, come on, dude, drive to the layup.
We're just looking for easy points and they're giving up
the they're giving up the rim. Drive for a layup.
Missed the layup, but get a steal immediately and get fouled.
Great foul shooter, go to the line, missed the front
end of a one and one. I'm like, come on, man,
we need like three points here, let's go so tough. Yes,
but William and Mary played a good game. Charleston was better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that you.
Speaker 1: Noted on the show yesterday. Charleston getting some guys back.
And I didn't catch a ton of that game.
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 1: I was at one game trying to watch Columbia on
my phone, for another one trying to catch the end
of the Nebraska game while I was at the game.
So I missed the sort of ending of that. But
you know, it seems to me like Charleston probably helped
out a lot by the guys that have returned for them.
And that's sometimes what you get with Brian or Rob
is like you're just gonna hoist up threes, right, Like
that's that's part of you know that that's the good
and the bad with that William and Mary and Cornell style,
which and in the end worked out for Columbia. I
cannot believe Columbia played a game in the hundreds and won.
That was not the game I was expecting. But I'll
take the result all day. That's what we're here, we're
trying to find winners. I may go to tonight's feature game.
It's it's right on my route home, and you know
I can't resist that. So the KFC Young Center tonight
rob like five hours away. Right now, I feel like
I've got to be in the building. Duke, lou of it.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 3: I think this is tough for Duke that game Saturday
against Florida State, and from somebody who had the Duke
team total as a client play Saturday afternoon over ninety
points and they got to ninety one in the end
with a pair of free throws and cash the ticket
for us. But at best, you that pace their ability
to score push Duke the entire way. Duke created separation
a couple of times second half, Florida State right back
at him. They had to work, and now to come
back three days later and probably have to work the
same way again in another opposition building Louisville. You know,
we've talked about it quite a bit. Pat Kelsey, the
pace he wants to play, the shooting that he has,
it is a little bit different here without Mike kel Brown.
For now, I think if he doesn't go tonight, it'll
be the fifth straight game I think it's been without four.
Showed up a little bit in that Stanford loss the
other night eighty seventy six when Louisville was out on
the West coast for that Cal Stanford kind of doubleheader,
so I'm not quite sure what to make of the
Louisville offense against this Duke defense. However, as I mentioned previously,
I think it's a tough spot for Duke to have
to come back and play two transition style teams quick teams.
Duke's obvious strength is down low, but boy, they got
some good three point shooting out of Eavans the other day,
so it could be another high scoring contest. Has noted
here by the line one sixty one and a half
up to one sixty two and a half. I don't
think I could play it under. I don't know that
Duke's you know, the brown thing is really where I
get a hang up on which side I would want
to play here. I don't know from what I saw
on Saturday that Duke is much of a turnover forcing
team against the pace team. So if Louisville doesn't turn
it over and they get their shots up the way
FSU did could be tough for Duke to win this game.
Obviously the points spread would indicate that. But it's the
problem for me on side. I think if I had
to play, I would look toward over one sixty one
and a half. Louisville is going to force Duke to
play their style. From what I saw Saturday, Duke doesn't
mind all that much. So very very slight lean towards
the over in this game, Duke Louisville. But if you're
in the building, Adam, I'm sure gonna be electric inside
there tonight.
Speaker 2: Rob, I'm with you.
Speaker 1: I feel like, can I just go enjoy myself and
Ben and Over and just root for some points and
watch the ball go into the hoop? It kind of
feels like that's gonna happen in this game, right, Like
do you think that Duke has looked uninterested the last
couple of games? If we go back to the side
for a second, Like, isn't this kind of the game
they get up for because they haven't looked up for
the last two I tell you that, right.
Speaker 3: And it does start. We've talked a little bit about
how conference season is a clean slate, so to speak,
and I think preparation becomes different, Adam, you look ahead
to what's on deck, and maybe your preparational focus if
your duke isn't really on Florida State. In Luke Lock's
first year head coach, Okay, we're gonna get that one.
Let's devote a little more of our brain power, our
game planning here to what's going to happen in Louisville.
That's more of the team that we're interested in. So
I could see that, and you do see that a
lot in conference play where you know these two game blocks.
Coaches do look ahead a little bit, teams get motivated
a little bit differently.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like I so just with this Duke team, So,
I mean their defense has been awful, Like the last
two games have been horrific defensively, Like you can it's
one thing to give up ninety one to Florida State
or eighty seven of Florida State and still win the game,
but you can't be given up. You can't have Georgia
Tech like in the game at the end. We'll get
to them in a minute. I mean, that's a bad
basketball team in my opinion, Like, that's not a team
that should be like a couple of possessions away in
Cameron Indoor at the end of that game. The reason
I said, Rob, you think they look uninterested is like
if you go back now to early December, it feels
like every time they're a big favorite, they're just that
there's a little bit of a I don't know if
they take it for granted.
Speaker 2: You know, barely beat Florida. They were.
Speaker 1: They were probably a seven and a half point favorite
or something of that nature in that game. But then
the Michigan State game up in East Lansing was one
of their better performances of the year. I took care
of business right there. Lipscomb, they didn't cover that. That
was actually you know that ninety seven seventy three final,
I'm just pulling it up here. Yeah, that was a
three point game at halftime. They gave up forty eight
points to Lipscomb in the first half of that basketball game,
and then sort of you know, blowing the Texas Tech
game to lose it. They were a pretty big favorite there,
and then the last two games, you know, not covering
big numbers. I just my gut and I won't bet this,
like I probably won't bet this like this solo you
never know if you're going to be in the building.
But like my gut says, Duke shows up for this
spot tonight, And that's terrifying as a better because you
know that Louisville at home is a different animal. If
they're gonna when they played poorly, it's typically on the road,
it's typically when they don't shoot the ball well, they
shoot it much.
Speaker 2: Better at home.
Speaker 1: So I feel like I've talked myself into the over
at this point, right because you get a.
Speaker 2: Focused Duke team.
Speaker 1: Maybe Duke plays a little bit more defense because they're focused,
but I also think their offense is still crisp and
Louisville they shoot it well at home better than they
do on the road.
Speaker 2: But that is an awfully big number round.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think to the point about Duke being disinterested,
youth could have something to do with that, Adam, that
you got three freshmen out there that don't really or
haven't been through these types of wars on a consistent basis,
especially like what they're going to be thrown into here
in acc play on occasions. So disinterest or just getting
your feet wet as freshmen, I'm not sure, but either
way it's probably good news for Louisville. If Mike kel
Brown was in this game, the line would be different, obviously,
but I'd feel way more comfortable with Louisville. However, like
I say, the whole atmosphere, it seemed like Duke for
what it's worth, when they were pushed on Saturday, they
didn't get rattled. They answered back, And we'll see if
they can answer back, because I'm sure there's gonna be
a couple of stretches here where Louisville pushes them and
maybe even has a lead and extends it. Can Duke
push back?
Speaker 1: Our guy bayou Bett says, who needs a signature home
win more than Pat Kelsey? Yeah, I mean, you know,
Louisville dipping a little bit in the in the polls,
I believe. I saw the new poll after the loss
to Stanford, which was was somewhat shocking to me that
they lost that game. I know he kind of talked
about it on Friday. I actually kind of liked Louisville
in that game. I think we had folks in the
chat that we were that were on Stanford. So w
for the chat right there. You guys got that one right.
It was very much wrong I didn't think there was
anyway Louisville would lose to that Stanford team. But yeah,
I mean it is kind of a it is kind
of a game that it feels like Louisville maybe needs
to take advantage of the spot. But Rob, deal, the
spot is just it's just the spot. Golask Ohio State
have a spot worked for them last.
Speaker 3: Night, right, you know, the spot sometimes gets too much
line consideration, too much money gets attracted to the spot sometimes,
so gotta be careful.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think as we talk it out, I feel
like the only way I could personally go is points
and you know, just just hope for that those both
offenses to be efficient, which we know they can be
because Duke is as a top notch team offensively in Louisville.
If they get ripping from three and they snowball off
the home crowd, you definitely could see some points from them.
All right, Rob, I want to do co favorite Day.
There's just it's one of those co co feature and
then we'll get into the chat. There's just too many
big games to like pick one feature. So I feel
like Houston Texas Tech needs the feature sort of sort
of you know spot as well, so let's head down
to the lone star state Houston. I guess that first glance,
I was like in Texas Tech, getting a that's a
nice number five and a half six more. I look
at the matchup and then kind of do the math
on it. My number kind of came out right there.
I believe I even made Houston minus like six point seven,
so maybe showing a little value even on the number
with the Houston side. I kind of like the matchup
for Houston, but I haven't been laying these like five
to six point favorites. So talk to me, Houston, Texas,
are you doing anything with this game?
Speaker 3: You want to talk about his interest the last two
Houston games and a lot of the CHET probably knows
this already, but Houston as a first half bet has
been a thing for about two plus years now. The
first half against Cincinnati, they're behind. At halftime of the
Middle Tennessee State game, they're only up by five thirty
three twenty eight. Kelvin Sampson has to push the Troops
to get to a sixty nine to sixty win, and
then he has to get a final ten minute of
the game against Cincinnati where they erase the deficit and
win by double digits over the last ten minutes to
win by seven in that one. So I mean the
alert signal should go off here that this will be
a game of interest for sure. JT. Toppin will be
a marked man offensively foreshore by the Houston defense. Nobody
goes to the glass like Houston. Nobody gets down and
dirty as far as half court defense is concerned like Houston.
And the question will be Texas Tech, as good as
they are, is home floor enough for them to match it?
This number surprisingly and I'm gonna look at the present
number right now, but it seems a little bit low
to me. We're Houston's concerned. They may be a little
more dependent Adam this year on the threes, see a
lot of threes being shot by Houston. They're not a
horrible shooting three point shooting team though, and like they
have been a couple of years in the past, I
would look at that side again. This is a team
and I use this phrase a lot that's venue proof,
not gonna go with to Lubbock and be awed by
anything there. They probably walk in as you should be
an awe of us, rather than us being an awe
of you and I. You know, Grant McCaslin, great head coach.
I think we both like what Grant McCaslin has done
his stops throughout his career. But nobody gets a team
up the way Kelvin Sampson gets a team up. And
I just think this is gonna be a very difficult
offensive night four Texas Tech. I think under is probably
the proper play here. I think you probably see a
game that doesn't leave the sixties on either side, gonna
be very scrappy. Number here has been bet up to
one forty three. I scratched my head a little bit.
I'm thinking, what are we doing here betting over in
this game which has conference implications. Obviously you could argue
maybe they're the two best teams in the conference, and
certainly both will be prepared EXU. You know before I
said march into Lubbock and be venue proof. The game's
in Houston, which makes it a little bit more surprising
to me when I was talking about line surprise only
six and a half at home. If I were gonna
bet this game, and I still might because I had
it checked off here first half, Houston is probably going
to be a play for me. I just can't see
Kelvin Sampson's team coming out three consecutive games playing lackluster
first halves. They set a tone, and they set a
tone early against Texas Tech. For Texas Tech, we often hear,
you know, when you turn a game on and you
have the announcing teams on, you often hear they have
to survive the first punch. And I don't know that
Texas Tech is going to survive the first punch here
from Houston. So for me, current number and this could Adam,
this could very well be we'll get to the end
of the show, but good likelihood it would be my
parlay leg here. Houston is a three and a half
point favorite first half and I'm a big bounce back guy.
When I see two performances first half like that out
of Houston, something they're generally really really good at, I
feel like, you know, it's time to get back to
being really really good at it. And this is an
opponent they probably have a bullseye on.
Speaker 1: Uh muted muted myself, Sorry about that. I like I
like I was as I was talking to no one,
I was saying, I like Houston here. I think finding
a way to play Houston in this game is the
best way to bet this game. Uh, listen, Texas Tech
gonna have a hard time getting to the rim. You're
probably looking at a team on the road and what
should be you know some of these like I've been
on the road for a few days hitting games, Like
I've been to some crowds where there's no students and
it's it's just not the you know, like they like
what they would probably consider like their typical crowd, their
best crowd whatever. I'll tell you where that doesn't happen.
It doesn't happen in places like Louisville, Houston, Like kids
will come back to campus just because they might be
able to get a ticket to this game. So like,
don't I don't think you're gonna have any issue with
Houston's home crowd being like an eleven out of ten
for Texas Tech. That's a big opponent. Both teams in
the top fifteen. You talked about Samson getting his teams
up they should They didn't play particularly well against Texas
Tech last year, and both were spots that I feel
like they should have. I think one was the one
Texas Tech was like severely like down players. I think
they had like six or seven guys against Houston, and
I don't think they I don't think Houston. They may
have won the game, but I don't think they played great.
And I think the other one, Texas Tech, maybe one
as well. I should have went and looked last year's
like final results up, but going going off memory, I know,
I know Texas Tech had a very like had a
bunch of injuries ahead of the Houston game last year
and still played pretty good. That's the type of stuff
that Calvin Samson's like, you're not letting this team come
into our building and embarrass us. And when Samson, as
you said, Rob, you know, CT talks about it all
the time, like Samson's like the guy for prepping for
that spot. I almost feel like you can. I almost
feel like you can bet this anyway. I like your
first half bet. I think you could find something that
maybe moneyline play into Houston. I think you could maybe
just lay the points if you can get five and
a half or six. I've got this closer to seven.
It was on my it was on my list, So
I'm really just for me, I've been avoiding some of these,
like having to either take you know, these numbers in
either either range. I kind of did my I went
through my results November December, Rob and I just I
haven't had personally as much success with the six point
favorite with the six to seven to eight point underdog,
and what I'm doing right now is working. So I'm
gonna try to stay disciplined there. But man, I really
do like Houston in the spot and I think they
cover yeah, whereas there's by you. Yeah, that's what CT
says about. That's what he that he was on a
show talking about Calvin Samsey goes he can lead a
dead horse to water and nurse.
Speaker 2: Him back to health. That was his life. I mean,
you can.
Speaker 1: Calvin Samson is as good as it gets. So but yeah,
well we'll continue on. Fixer has set up my twenty
minute mark promo, so he says, will you guys have
some college B ball plays up five four percent? Question mark? Yeah,
it's five dollars Tuesday. I've already got two plays locked in.
I'm not going to I haven't posted the sales brick
yet because I haven't decided which one I'm going to sell,
and it's probably because I'm going to give you one.
Speaker 2: Of them on the show. At some point.
Speaker 1: So whether someone asks about the game or it gets
time to my parlay, leg, I will give you one
of the client plays that I have for free, and
then the other one will you know or other couple
I've got. I've got quite the list today. There's a
lot of good games today, so I've already locked into ROB.
I could see myself potentially having a three or four
on the card tonight and it's going all right, Columbia.
I only play yesterday four percenter got it done, and
I think I think since I left the state of
New York and hit the road started hitting games, I'm like,
I'm eight and two, eight and two on the new year,
so hopefully we can hopefully we can keep it going.
Maybe I'll just live out of my car at some point.
Speaker 2: You know, I can't.
Speaker 1: I've already exhausted the the family members and then like
a couple of hotel rooms.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're but.
Speaker 1: Hey, if the if the plays keep winning Rob, maybe
I maybe I can keep this going a little bit longer.
Speaker 2: We'll see.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go to this. This one's I had
a question and I lost it. Let's see someone asked this.
I'll touch on this one quick. This one's kind of
interesting and it is the first game on the off
the board tonight, and I know people like to talk
about that early spot. I think it's a I'm in
a different time zone at least for the for right now.
I'll be back in the East Coast times on very soon,
so I believe this is a six pm game. The
question here is, Adam, yesterday you talked about you Mass
being a mess. Can Ohio you cover the number?
Speaker 3: Oh?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wonder what BP would think. Of course, Brian
Power one of the most notable Ohio Bobcat graduates. I
think there is I can't name many more notable Ohio
you grad Rob than Brian Power. But you know, my
comment about you Mass was more was more program based
over the last couple of years. Like I don't know
if I mean, I don't know if I was really
saying that about this particular team. They haven't played like,
they haven't had the results Rob they have, you know,
since Mac play started. I'm really surprised that this team
lost their first three Mac games because I thought once
they got to Mac Play they might start to, like,
you know, benefit from not being in the Atlantic ten anymore. Right,
like U Mass would play a similar non conference and
then they get to the Atlantic ten and then it
would be a gauntlet date in VCU. You know, George Washington.
You go back in the day, like those U. Mass
teams that were pretty good still having to play Xavier
and conference play Temple when those teams were in the
Atlantic ten. So that was always the thing with you Mass.
Decent non conference, but then they'd get lost in the
shuffle in the conference. So I said, well, maybe this
year in the MAC, the mid to lower MAC schools,
they might be able to clean up on those teams
and be pretty good. Now to U Mass, like to
their defense, they've had a very difficult start to MAC
conference play in terms of the who they've played. Kent
State's a good team, Bowling Green's a very good team,
and then.
Speaker 2: And then they had to go on the road.
Speaker 1: But the problem is you had two winnable games at home,
you lost both. You went on the road to what
would have been a fought was my five percent play
and ruin that for Trigg losing to Eastern Michigan a
game that I think you should win. So so I
guess U Mass is a little bit bit of a
mess rob they're zero to three to start MAC play,
and this is after pulling the upset against Florida State
and Ohio just hits.
Speaker 2: It's like found money for that.
Speaker 1: Did you see the buzzer beater from Jackson Paveletski over
the weekend to uh to walk off Eastern Michigan from
about half court? So, I don't know, Ohio's got some
momentum UMass is desperate. What do you think this is?
This is an interesting game for sure.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and probably one of the more difficult ones to
come up with a solid conviction on which side you
would play Massachusetts. For what it's worth, the strength here
would be on the boards against Ohio You, which is
not necessarily a good rebounding team. I would think that Ohio,
you know, Ohio You is not the same obviously offensive
force that they were, And when you rank three point
fifty six in three point percentage out of three hundred
and sixty five teams, it's difficult to overcome that. A
lot of times, Adam, if they're not getting the offensive
boards and they're missing threes, it's a lot of one
and done's, and then the other way with you, mass
I would probably lean slightly toward Massachusetts in this game.
But again I think listening to what your analysis was
and just thinking in my head what mine is on
this game, I think there's too much back and forth,
like conflict with this side that side, this side that side,
And when I get in that sort of position, I
would generally lean toward a dog, but in this case,
I don't know. I don't know that I'm getting enough
as a dog. I don't know if I have enough
trust in you, Mass, But almost three buckets here, I
mean four and a half is a lot to give.
I think in this game is probably the best way.
I put it forward that the lines going up two
to four and a half as a WHOLEHIO money. At
some point pushback could occur, But if I were going
to play, I would play umss. This game has really
sparked as far as total is concerned. One fifty four
up to one fight. Not sure that I see that
either here, and you got a pretty keen eye for totals,
I'm not sure that that's the correct way to go,
So probably no play for me. But if I had
to the old gun to head type of deal, probably
U Mass plus to four and a.
Speaker 1: Half I would be right there with you, But the
only way I could play it would have been to
I think this peaked maybe at five and a half.
I think you talked about it getting bet up. I
think I saw you mass up to five and a half.
Does not surprise me at all that uh some you
know that it played back at the number right there?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: I now again, has has you mass personally burned me
a little bit where I'm like less inclined to like
go back to the well with them?
Speaker 2: Yes?
Speaker 1: Is this in the rain that I just talked about
of plays that I've personally struggled in that five and
a half point underdog six point favorite?
Speaker 2: It is?
Speaker 1: That's that's why I kind of quickly sort of discarded
it on a slate like today where there's so many
other good options in my opinion. But yeah, rob at
five and a half, U mass makes a lot of sense.
And then you're talking about the total. I mean Ohio.
Ohio doesn't shoot the ball particularly well. They haven't shot
it well all season. They can't. You know, this is
a team that I think, on paper should shoot much
better than twenty eight point nine percent from three point range?
So is that move up is our is the betting
crowd like smart enough to be like, oh, we think
there's a bunch of positive regression here due to Ohio
because they can't hit a they can't hit a three.
Of course, Pavaletski wins the game on a half like
basically a forty footer, but this team hasn't shot three,
you know, shot the ball well all year. And then
you got the other side where it's like, UMass, we'll
we'll turn it over against anyone, like you know, you're
talking about having to go on the road with that
profile turn you know, just bad possessions, turn it over.
It's ultimately how they kind of lost the Eastern Michigan
game and then and also shot poorly, but like just
a bad turnover here and there. So yeah, it's it's
a very interesting one. I thought it was a good
question and one we're talking about. I think I'm with you.
I think this is a little bit of a consensus.
Uh breakdown, UMass or under. I don't agree with either move.
Speaker 2: All right.
Speaker 1: I saw a donation. We got to get that, and
now I can't. Oh, there it is, there's our guy Garth.
I couldn't tell what game it was, but we you know,
we love to talk We love to talk Mountain West
on this show. And I know, I know Rob Bino
likes nothing more than a a team going to altitude.
Where we now have a line that reflects the altitude, dude,
And I think that is you know, I think that's
what we're looking at here. It's pretty much what you're
gonna see Like this is this is probably a general
point we should make as we as we get ready
to break down UNLD Wyoming. Like once you get to
Mountain West conference play, the bump for home core is crazy,
like across the across the conference, like you're always going
to get You're almost always going to pay a premium
on home teams in this league every year, year in
and year out. With that being said, Garth says he
leans Wyoming at home. I don't know, Rob that that
doesn't look that bad for a priced in Laramie right there, Wyoming,
I'm looking at four and a half right now. What
do you think about that? UNLD Wyoming.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I got a lot of thoughts about this because
it's probably gonna make my client card in some way,
shape or form. I've watched the New Mexico Wyoming game
on Saturday Night, where I would have expected a far
better their offensive performance from Wyoming. Remember Adam, two games ago,
you and I were on the show and we talked
about the Wyoming Air Force game, and even think we
used that total under as a parlay leg where it
was a day game. Wyoming just went along with the
slow tempo, played enough defense, went wired to wire. Games
stayed way under, but they didn't really get to rev
up their offensive engine the way that they like you
or the way the Sundance Wicks likes them too. It's
a good offensive team. So I had a line of
thinking Saturday night, New Mexico was off a bad offensive performance.
Wyoming was off of lackluster offensive performance. Let's play this
game over the total. New Mexico did their part, Wyoming
did so. Again. My line of handicapping thinking was, you
know what, I can't wait to see Wyoming's next game
because I want to play their team total over thinking
that the offense is going to come. Here comes Nevada
or excuse me, UNLV line opens up fairly high priced
as far as overall total is concerned. Where team total
is concerned, Wyoming sits at seventy eight and a half.
I believe it is as we speak, and the totals
come down. A little bit surprising to me that the
total came down here, but it probably is more of
a money reflection on UNLV because as the total came down,
the Wyoming price went up. So there, I guess that
money's indicating to you that we don't expect a lot
out of UNLV. We don't expect a lot of them offensively. Maybe,
so we're going to push the total down bet Wyoming
side up. That number now sits four to four and
a half. But I still like the team total, Adam.
I watched Wyoming and they just miss shots. And that's
such a basic thing to say, but it's really in basketball.
It's what it comes down to make or miss. And
Wyoming is too good of a shot making team to me.
And Josh Passner is gonna play with pace. You know,
when I hand decap these totals, you have to have
enough opportunity to score points. To me, my outlook is
this Wyoming comes out of the gate pretty quick. Here
wasn't It wasn't, and I won't call it embarrassing, but
it was a deflating loss against New Mexico. I mean,
you shouldn't lose by that type of number to that team.
Mexo is playing well. I don't want to take anything
away from them, but I think Wyoming in a great
bounce back situation here against a team that's going to
create pace, against a team that Wyoming won't be afraid
to pace with, you get enough opportunities, you're shooting back
at home. I think it all that lines up here.
For in what regard, I'm somewhat happy that the overall
total has come down because as that comes down, they
ad just team totals down as well. And Wyoming now
it's seventy eight and a half at home against this team.
To me just seems like it's an eighty point game
for the Cowboys. So I think that's the way I'm
going to go client wise, But for Garth here, that's
the way I'm looking, and I think that Wyoming's pretty
a pretty solid play at home as well here tonight
in a little bit of a you know conference get
that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah more, I look at this one more. Wyoming makes
a lot of sense, even even like what did it
open three and a half? It's only it's only four
and a half right now. I think I actually think
that that could even get higher as I as I
look at my numbers and just know how some of
these home spots in the Mountain West get that get
be I think, like, if you like Wyoming, even four
four and a half is probably still good. I wouldn't
be surprised if that got up to like six. Something
from the Weekend Rob that I think got glossed over
a little bit was like Josh Passner came out, was like,
we are so sick. My team is like He's like
I He's like, I got whatever, like is going around
our locker room. He's like I was like literally in
the fetal position, I couldn't move. Like He's like just
coming out and like like describing his sickness in detail,
right and then UNLD, you know you could probably I
mean at this point you could probably have a couple
guys in a coma and still be air Force. So
it's like, you know, that's a I mean, sixty seven
to thirty nine. It was the final in that game.
That was that was the final in the UNLV air
Force game. So you got to think though, too, like
it's that time of year. It's just like if a
couple of people were sick on Saturday. A couple others
could have it now, right like if that, if that's
running through the locker room. So that was something to
me that I kind of had jotted down on my
weekend notes. And then I realized who UNLV was playing,
and I said, oh, I have absolutely no interest in
trying to fade UNLV here with air Force, who might
be the you know, one of the worst teams ever
in this league.
Speaker 2: So maybe you get your chance to do it now.
Teams got guys aren't feeling.
Speaker 1: Good now, they're still out in you know, altitude land
going from Colorado Springs over to Laramie. Yeah, it kind
of makes sense. So Garth, I think you found a
good one with Wyoming. And I may have to like
really go revisit this game to see if if it
belongs on my client card as well.
Speaker 2: That is a that that's a good fine. I think
Wyoming is a good look right there.
Speaker 1: All right, Rob, I'm gonna I'll give out.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna give.
Speaker 1: Out a three percent play and I'm also it is
also the leg of my oh it'll be my parlay leg.
And listen, I'm just pop committed. I have to take
the Syracuse Orange right here. I So what I did
was I laid minus one fifty for a three percent play.
The reason I did that is because this is less
a I couldn't really justify doing it at three, which
is where it got too quickly. So this actually opened
and qus I think minus one and a half.
Speaker 2: My number was one.
Speaker 1: This quickly got met up to three. But for me,
Rob this is just again I say I'm cut pot committed,
because for two weeks I talked about how important Donnie
Freeman coming back would be to the team. I talked
for a couple of weeks about how huge that spot was.
On a New Year's Eve, opening the league season up
at home, I played Syracuse in that game. I think
I gave it out on the show if I'm not mistaken,
and Syracuse, of course did what Syracuse has done better
than anyone for the last decade or so, and that's
just disappoint their fans lose the game. I actually had
a great number in that game, Syracuse plus two, and
they managed to like foul at the end and lose
by three.
Speaker 2: So you know just.
Speaker 1: What we're accustomed to out of q's basketball at this point.
With that being said, their defense is really good. William
Kyle is a tremendous rim defender. I know they have
their issue us with File shooting and scoring a little bit,
but the second half of that game against Clemson, Donnie
Freeman showed up and kind of showed you, like what
the ceiling is for Syracuse with Freeman playing well and
what they can do at full strength, which is really
the first time all year that they were full strength
against an actual opponent because Freeman only played those first
couple of games. Quos was a big favorite in all
of those games. So again, I go back and I'll leave.
I'll leave you the Georgia Tech side because I just
think they're I just think they're bad. Like I just
don't think they're a great, a very good basketball team.
Syracuse is disappointing and underwhelming. Georgia Tech is bad. In
my opinion, there's a difference. I still think Syracuse has
far more quality on the roster, and then having Freeman back,
I still don't even think is fully baked in to
like the overall line. It definitely was bet that way,
but that's why I'm just going to take the money line.
It's good for the parlay. I made it a three
percent play for clients instead of a four because of that,
So that'll be my parlay leg. Syracuse Orange minus one
fifty is going to be the parlay leg. And I
actually did bet that same thing, uh for three percent.
So I'm just going to keep my risk amount and
check go a little bit smaller. But confidence wise, it's
in the four or five percent range for me. I
just don't want to risk that much, you know, having
to lay minus one fifty. So that's why it is
a three uh yeah. But you know, Robert, tell me
if if I if I'm crazy as to think that
ques can finally win a basketball game, let me know
and give me a little uh fill me in on
the Georgia Tech side a little bit.
Speaker 3: Well, the Georgia Tech side of the equation kind of
it runs into another game that I'm you know, very
very involved in today as well. But Georgia Tech beats
BC on Saturday by twelve points without their starting center
Mohamed Sela, who by the way, leads a team in rebounds,
in blocks, in field goal percentage, shoots almost sixty one
percent from two point range. The status here tonight for
him not positive. I think I saw a questionable, but
these questionables just appear all the time. But the point being,
Georgia Tech got away with one Saturday against BC, and
I think that somewhat was factored into the opening line here.
You know, the results of games affect power ratings, which
affect opening numbers, and I think the market was too smart.
The market came right in with Syracuse, and I totally agree.
If they're down, they're starting center in this game tonight,
then Syracuse will absolutely own the rim. They've got the
rim protection. We've talked about it a ton already, which
makes it kind of an easy game from the interior.
Georgia Tech on the road in this instance, to me
doesn't appeal at all, and I think that Syracuse is
probably again the right side in this game. You can't
get away with what they got away with. Again, I'm
mixing up home and road guys. I'm sorry Georgia Tech
home here not making a difference. To me, BC, for
what it's worth, didn't present what Syracuse presents. And you
have to take these games as single matchups, and the
matchup style here with Syracuse is so much different than
what you saw out of Boston College. On Saturday that
I don't know that Georgia Tech can do it without
their big so I would be on the Syracuse side.
I think a Georgia A look at Georgia Tech team
total under is probably worth it as well. So I'm
not going to talk you off Syracuse here, Adam. Obviously
the money hasn't talked you off, and I would think
Syracuse probably in for a pretty good result here tonight.
Speaker 1: Trevor, you know, Trevor brings it up. So, yeah, it
is the road game. It's actually I believe Syracuse is
the last team in the country to play a true
road game, irrelevant whatever like done in a lot of
these big A lot of these big schools at this
point just don't play road games anymore. They'll they've they've
substituted playing like a quality road game to go play
like three games and three days in Vegas with one
of them tipping off at nine am local time, Like
just what, I don't know how that does, you know,
much better for you than like scheduling a decent opponent
and playing a road game. But that's what we're dealing
with with some of these teams, Syracuse being.
Speaker 2: One of them.
Speaker 1: That being said, I think Syracuse is going to be
thrilled to get out on the road. Right now, the
Dome hasn't been a happy place to be. Attendance is down,
the fan base is pissed. It's been this way for
a couple of years. I feel like there's been I
didn't go to the Clemson game.
Speaker 2: I went to.
Speaker 1: The Tennessee game was okay, but even like even the
Tennessee game, rob there was only twenty thousand, and that
seems like, you know, only twenty thousand, but like for
a non conference top twenty five opponent, there should be
probably thirty. Like when Syracuse is good and they've got
a big team coming in, it's usually like twenty seven
to twenty eight thousand, and then like a really big
game like a Duke or something, it would be like
thirty thirty one.
Speaker 2: Like the Clemson game, same thing.
Speaker 1: And that was a game that was, you know, middle
of the day on New Year's Eve like that was
you should have every family in Central New York at
that game like you would have when I have ten
fifteen years ago, and it was just kind of dead.
Speaker 2: So I think Q.
Speaker 1: Is actually going to have some energy playing on the road,
just getting out of this, like you know, Lull that's
been like every Syracuse home game, and so I actually
don't mind them going on the road here at all,
especially against the Georgia Tech team that I don't give
a can.
Speaker 2: I know they have a good home record because they haven't.
Speaker 1: Played anyone at home, but I don't give them like
a considerable home court bump. It's not it's not the
same as let's say QS was going to like a
Louisville or a Duke or maybe even like a UNC.
This is a very winnable ACC road game in my opinion.
So and yeah, by you, I was. I was pumped
as well. Look at what happened to me. I got
out of the snow. I'm eight and two. Since getting
out of the snow, maybe that'll happen to UH, Maybe
that'll happen to Syracuse as well. And then Bayou also
says syracuse ceiling is much higher with Freeman. Yeah, that
is an understatement. That is the guy that Qus needs
to UH to run any sort of offense, and everything
kind of falls into place on the offensive end when
Donnie Freeman is on the floor, and that was very
apparent in the second half. Rob against Clemson sou Syracuse
three percenter for me on the money line and we'll
throw it in the parlay at minus one fifty.
Speaker 2: Do you want to do you?
Speaker 1: Are you going to use something we've already talked about
or do you want to go to a different game
for the parlay or do you do you not know
yet that either or is okay?
Speaker 3: No? Again, this is one of those days where I
have like five selections, like you, I have a big
card today, and I to apologize for all these mistakes
home and away, guys, is as this show goes on
and gotta come forward. But I'm in here and I'm
actually trying to place Betts as we're talking at him.
So when I come back from picking my head up,
I'm losing my train of thought a little bit as
I get in on some of these numbers. But let
me go ahead and just give you a parlay leg
for tonight with a play that I think probably the
number is gonna get much higher, I think. But we're
gonna go big East and I'm gonna play Saint John's Butler
over the total number here consensus number one sixty two
and a half. Guys, this number is flying all over
the place right now. Since Adam and I have started
the show, you see sixty three, sixty three and a half.
I was busy getting that sixty two and a half
number before. For Butler is the worst, the absolute worst
defensive team in the Big East. There's no question. So
Saint John's recent problems scoring a lot of points I
think gets solved here. I think Saint John's probably finds
their way to mid high eighties. But Butler will Chase
Rick Patino doesn't have the same defensive team he had
last year. Adam and I think you were out at
the forefront of this start of the year with saying
somewhat that Saint John's is not the same team as
last year. They're they're a little bit downgraded in your mind.
It's playing out right in front of us as we speak.
They're claim to fame last year was the way they
could lock down defensively. I don't see that this year.
I see a little bit better shooting. I see an
opponent here that they could take advantage of in Butler
as far as offense is concerned. And Butler, like I say,
give that amount of credit. He gets these kids to
score and they get to the free throw line. Saint
John's is awfully handsy. They commit a lot of files.
Rick Patino always pulling the hair out of his head.
So for me, I thought this game was going to
actually open in the one sixty five range. It didn't.
It opened way back at one sixty and a half.
Since then, like I say, it's been pushed for purposes
of the sh show, And to be fair, I won't
use the number I got sixty two and a half
about forty minutes ago, but I will I'm seeing a
lot of sixty three and a half at them, so
let's be fair to the audience here and say over
one sixty three and a half. I still think it
gets there. I think you find a game that hits
maybe one sixty eight plus. So that's gonna be my
leg of the parlay today, Saint John's and Butler. It's
an early start seven on the East Coast, four on
the Pacific Coast. But I like that game quite a bit.
Speaker 1: Yeah, just when you thought things couldn't get worse for
the Big East, Saint John's went out and lost to Providence,
and and it's just again, I think I've said it
on the show a couple of times. Historically bad year
for the for the Big East. Any you know outside
of Yukon, who we obviously know is good. It is
just like top to bottom of mess. And I thought
I thought Saint John's was gonna be kind of the
one team that like was like the clear number two
in the league, like just based based on non conference play.
And now I don't even know if you can say
that at this point. With that being said, I can't.
I can't stand this Butler team and somehow they've beat me,
like with I had like a big dog against them
earlier this year and they like hit every single shot
to cover like twenty something in a game that they
should just not have covered that number. But like to
your point, their defense is atrocious. They can score a
little bit though, that is uh. They've had some guys
like biz Jack and they they've got some offensive talent.
And Saint John's, I mean, has been They've been a
little bit of.
Speaker 2: A mess just in general.
Speaker 1: I don't know, like Patino coming into press conferences like
doesn't throw his players under the bus, but he kind
of like he'll he's not shy to like be like yeah,
like Bryce Hopkins is just soft, right, like he says
stuff like that, So yeah, I could. I think I
see where you're going with this one. Personally, if I
had to bet this game, I think I would. I
would bet Saint John's to bounce back from the Providence loss.
But if they, if they bounce back, it probably means
their offense is functioning. And if their offense is functioning,
it probably means this one's going over. So yeah, I
hope for our sake, in the parlay sake, that that's
the case. But I'm not in uh, I'm not in
disagreement with you.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I may.
Speaker 3: I may renig on the sixty three and a half
at him because I was looking at and granted, these
are not I have to be careful what I say here.
These are not your more prominent TV commercial outlets, But
there are plenty of outlets right now still with one
sixty two and a half, I don't know, you know,
for folks, in a lot of options. I'll tell you
what options other than the basic ones, you can get
this number pretty easily.
Speaker 2: On here's what we're gonna here's what we're gonna do.
Speaker 1: So we'll go one sixty two point five, And I'm
just gonna throw a minus one twenty big on it,
so if people need to, because we're again we're putting
it in a parlay with Syracuse minus one fifty, so
you're still going to end up with plus money. So
that's what we'll do for the parlay, and I'll recap
that with a price. At the end of the show, Rob,
I see the chat and I instantly have to go
to you because you have nailed the Oklahoma State Cowboys
on this show since the beginning of the season. And
I've got an opinion here, but I got to hear
you talk first, so I can change it on the
fly if it goes against your read on Oklahoma State.
Speaker 3: Well, I mean, at face value, it's a pay style game.
The thing with Oklahoma State this year, Adam, is their
ability to score on just about anybody. Johnny Dawkins team
comes in here pretty high flying at this point in time.
But the way Oklahoma State shoots threes and at home
they got a duo of Miller and Roy that both
shoot better than forty five from three, it's crazy. And
for Anthony Roy, it's a guy who's been at four
schools in six years. I believe it is he played
at a place called Langston in Naia, where they won
a national title, I think. But the point here being,
I don't know that Johnny Dawkins team can survive the
offensive onslought that Oklahoma State's going to provide. That being said,
I don't know that Oklahoma State has the defense to
slow Central Florida down. This total open one seventy seven,
probably as things in Oklahoma States category aren't generally too high,
but I thought that might have been a little bit
too high. I prefer the side in this game. It's
already been bet up though it's been bet up to
three and a half. But in what I believe is
going to be a really high scoring game, and that's
not going out on a legend saying anything new. I
think that Oklahoma State can win it by a couple
of buckets here. They're just their offensive performance has been
absolutely crazy this year, and I'm not sure that to
this point, Central Florida's record is really not a little
bit fraudulent. At twelve and one, the list of opponents
isn't great. The one really really good team they did
play was Vandy. They got whacked by twelve. I just
you know, to me, the Kansas win was huge, but
when you're coming off of Kansas win, the letdown kicks
in as well. So I'm going to say Oklahoma State
minus three and a half something I might get to personally.
Didn't include it on client card yet, but I think
Oklahoma State's probably the right side here for multitude of factors.
Like I said, they're going to be able to score,
and I think the letdown factor exists for Central Florida.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's kind of the way I was leaning. And
like you said, there's a there's quite a few that
were kind of hit quickly by the market being being
one of them. I just noticed our I'm going to
have to update the odds and the Syracuse money line
in our parlag because that got hit even further past
where I got it, which I thought I was kind
of late to the party having to lay minus one fifty.
That's up to minus one seventy five as well. And
that's kind of what we're seeing with Oklahoma State, which
I do agree with. And I think my angle for
this would be, you know, Central Florida coming off of
a big win now having to go on the road,
it's uh, it's it just feels like a game that
they lose for I guess that's not a great handicap,
but it's just, you know, the spot for me is
is pretty like heavy favoring Oklahoma State, and I gotta
I gotta be honest that you like you you were
way ahead of this then I was. There was a
point in time at the beginning of the year where
I was willing to put my money against Oklahoma State,
and I've just I've kind of gotten away from that.
They continue to sort of, you know, play better than
I expect them to, almost on a on a sort
of game in and game out basis, And you know what, Yeah,
they lost over the weekend, gave it one hundred and
two to Texas Tech. But that's gonna happen, like you're
you're gonna you know, teams are going to go into
Lubbock and get.
Speaker 2: One hundred dropped on on.
Speaker 1: Occasion like that is what we can call a very
forgivable result, forgivable loss in my opinion for Texas for
Oklahoma State. So I like Oklahoma State to bounce back,
and then of course rob it's the tail is all
this time. Uc F breaks into the top twenty five,
gets the number by their name and then probably lose
this right away. So there you go. It feels like
an Oklahoma State win.
Speaker 3: And I would say, real quick, it's probably a big
game for Steve Lutz Adam. It's the Big twelve conference
home opener. You want to put your best foot forward
for the home fans. They've done well so far, fans
want to see it in conference. I think a lot
of situationals lined up here for OSU, aside from the
fact that they can play offense. I'm gonna shift the
gear real quickly here because I usually give the the
chat what might be one of my favorite coach quotes
of the day, and I just want to get this
one out there. Texas A and M Auburn tonight, right,
Bucky McMillan come from Stanford really leading Texas A and
M to a different style than they played under buzzwas.
But here we want to talk about Steven Pearl because
he was not mixing words over the weekend. Steven Pearl
not happy with his defense, which most coaches are never
happy with their defense. Here he goes our one on
one defense is terrible. We just continually work on it
and let guys drive right around us. At some point,
we have to have an identity. I'm always going to
figure out what I can do better, but my team's
got to do a better job to finding out their
identity defensively and taking some accountability in their one on
one defense because I can't go out there and guard
for them. That comes on the heels of there's one
of their star players. To Hot Pediford being benched to
start the game on Saturday, Pearl went on to say,
and I won't quote, I'll just paraphrase here what he
was talking about, that Pettiford's a leader on our team
and he's got to learn to lead better. We've talked
about it before a couple of things. There really quickly
a coach who's basically telling you that it's been a
while now that he's been trying to get them to
play better defense, and they have not responded. It's been
a while now that he's been telling to Hot Pettiford
that you're a leader of this team. You have to
act like a leader, you have to play like a leader,
and he hasn't responded. Before I read that quote, I
was going to be on Auburn tonight thinking that Texas
A and M is a little bit fraudulent. You know,
Texas A and M was. They were in that game
to the very end at home of dagainst LSU, and
LSU didn't have Deeden Thomas at the point on Saturday,
and still LSU was able to come within a triple
of tying that game is sending it into overtime. But
after that quote, Adam, I don't know that I could
lay points with Auburn A lot of times. The initial
reaction when something like that happens is okay, the focus
is on defense. The reason why I can't buy into
that right now is because it sounds like Bruce Pearl
has been telling is telling us that it's been a
while and we still haven't gotten it right. So why
would they get it right tonight. I'm not sure they
can outscore A and M. Which under Bucky McMillan, for
those who remember him at Sanford, and I had quite
a few Sanford overplays last year, they're scoring the way
that Samford scored last year. He is a coach with
a system with better talent. Totals up to one sixty eight,
not thrilled at one sixty eight. But I don't know
that I could play this one under because it looks
like A and M comes in as a one trip
pony and Auburn just cannot defend according to their coach
right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean A and M's giving up points left
and right too. That's certainly kind of a I feel
like being as it's Bucky's first year and it's almost
like kind of that, like it's not a rebuild.
Speaker 2: I mean, I guess it's like your Bill.
Speaker 1: It's you know, it's not like a year zero where
he's gotten no one or no talent, like it's this
is a this is still a team that's eleven and
three right now, right like they're not a bad basketball team,
but it's it's a building effort. And I think that
you see some of the Buckey ball stuff that you're
used to, you know, your custom of seeing from his teams.
But a couple of things, One playing like that in
the SEC. We don't even know if that's gonna work yet,
right we don't.
Speaker 2: We don't.
Speaker 1: We don't know if that's gonna work on the other
end of the floor because and that's sort of what's
happening to them, is they're very vulnerable on the defensive end.
So I'm in agreement with the number being massive. I
think you're gonna see a ton of points in this game.
Auburn is going to likely have a better offensive showing
in Texas, A and M should should be able to
score as well. This is another one that got bet
up five and a half, up seven and a half.
I agree with the move, but like if I loved
it at five and a half, I.
Speaker 2: Would have bet it at five and a half. Same same,
you know, kind of the same.
Speaker 1: Thing with Oklahoma State if I thought that that was
just the spot and the play I want, and I
would already bet it. So the fact that like, I'm
not gonna come in and play them after the move,
I will. I will sort of transition to you know,
Decerna's comment and why why I sort of was okay
playing Syracuse where it was, and he says, Man, all
that money going to Syracuse, that sharp money moving the market.
I'm going the other way. Well, I don't think. I
don't think that's just all sorts of steam like some
of these other ones. I think Rob that you're gonna
be correct about Scilla not playing that. That's what I
think that Syracuse money is for he did not. Now
correct me if I'm wrong. He did not play last
game right, he was out right against BC.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I have a feeling that that Qus money is him
out and William Kyle is gonna abuse whoever is in
there that isn't him. That's one thing you can. You
can hack William Kyle. Put him at the line and
stop him. But uh, if that dude gets a little
bit down, he'll go into the rim. He's gonna like
rip the backboard off. He's a freak, an absolute freak show.
And he is also just racking up block shot on
the other end, So I would beware just thinking you're
like fading steam. I think the QS move is legit,
and I think it's probably injury related. And like I said, Rob,
it's moved even more to the point where I feel
like I have to update the odds of our parlay
because I use minus one fifty and I don't think
I don't think you're gonna see minus one fifty anywhere anymore.
So I'm gonna put it in at minus one seventy five.
I put your total in at minus one twenty. That's fine,
We're still getting plus one eighty eight. It's still plus
one plus money.
Speaker 2: On the parlay.
Speaker 1: So yeah, we'll go with Saint John's Butler over one
sixty two and a half. For Rob Vino, we'll go
with Syracuse minus one seventy five. Couple of juiced up
money lines but together plus money one plus one eighty
eight and Rob Bino. It's five dollars Tuesday, So robis
plays up for five bucks. I'm gonna have plays up
for five bucks. And if you want to just get
all of the college basketball we play for any three
day stretch, that package is up as well. All Right,
we've made it to the end. Gotta get off before
the show behind us gets on. We'll see you guys tomorrow,
ten am Eastern For more full court Press