Speaker 1: But silver sat there and sat there. Gold broke out
almost two years ago, made new all time highs and
is now doubled in price, where silver just only made
new all time highs back in October. Yeah, so it's
moving to catch up. The force that applied, you know,
just sits there, doesn't go anywhere. Then all of a sudden,
it starts to move up, and volume picks up, and
these CTA trading funds, other traders and the like start
to jump on, and it creates its own momentum that
took it up to forty eight. That the old all
time highs that blasted it through to fifty four. It
then pulled back, held forty eight of support, and now
it's blasted through again. Ultimately, I think Carrie, it does
a gold you know where Golden took about eighteen months
for it to double in price after it made new
all time highs in March of twenty four. For your silver,
it's not going to take eighteen months, but it's following
that same path.
Speaker 2: You were listening to Carrie Let's's financial Survival Network, where
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Speaker 3: Than ever, and welcome. You aren't listening to and watching
the Financial Survival Network. I'm your host, Carrie lutz Man.
I am floating on air silver sixty years of suppression.
Craigkamke is with us Craig sixty years because I wrote
an article recently about the demonetization of silver in nineteen
sixty five. What LBJ did, the fact that the funniest
thing about it, Craig, was that they created the Kennedy
half dollar, and at the same time they pulled silver
out of the coinage. However, they couldn't pull it all
out of the Kennedy half dollar because then it would
have cheapened Kennedy's image in the eyes of the public.
So what they did was they made it forty percent silver,
the minimum amount they could use, so it didn't look
like a Johnson slug, as our good friend David Morgan
calls them.
Speaker 4: And you know.
Speaker 3: That lasted for like four years. But so the first ones,
the sixty fours came out, they were ninety percent. They
got hoarded up instantaneously as keepsakes. They cut the silver
to forty percent and sixty five to sixty nine, and
they still couldn't keep them around. I've been buying those
personally because they're considered the junkiest of the junk silver.
Up until a couple of weeks ago, they were selling
at discounts to melt value. Anyway, I'm digressing, but it's
been too long. I think the last time I talked
to you, silver was around thirty five bucks the ounce,
where now it's it hit close to six two on
the CRIMEX today. Nothing you're surprised about, is it?
Speaker 1: Yeah, I would imagine anyway, good to see it, Carrie.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 1: When we probably spoke back in September, I think was
the last time, and you know, back then we're all waiting.
It was like, well, gold have been going sideways, you know,
into the through the all the month of August. For
four months, silver been going sideways, particularly to silver. I'm
sure I probably mentioned and described it as Newton's law
of inertia. I think they also call it the first
law motion. An object at rest kind of remains at
rest until a force is applied to it, and that
force has been applied and continue to be applied now
to silver, and it's kind of a it's a fomo.
It's a momentum thing. It's a virtuous cycle. It's it's
why is it going up? It's because it's going up now.
There are a lot of other things in play, Yeah,
the global supply picture. You know, how much metal as
they're truly in the vaults in London, and what's going
on in Shanghai and all that stuff. But silver sat
there and sat there. Gold broke out almost two years ago,
made new all time highs and is now doubled in price,
where silver just only made new all time highs back
in October. Yeah, so it's moving to catch up the
force that applied. You know, it just sits there, doesn't
go anywhere. Then all of a sudden, it starts to
move up, and volume picks up, and these CTA trading funds,
other traders and the like start to jump on, and
it creates its own momentum that took it up to
forty eight. That the old all time highs that blasted
it through to fifty four. It then pulled back held
forty eight of support and now it's blasted through again, ultimately,
I think Carrie, it does a gold you know, where
golden took about eighteen months for it to double in
price after it made new all time highs in March
of twenty four. For your silver, it's not going to
take eighteen months, but it's following that same path.
Speaker 3: Hey, so we're going to create hemp Kes first law
of metals markets. That is, I like it. Okay, if
a medal is suppressed, it stays suppressed until an external force.
For us is the suppression to end gold pool in
the sixties. Obviously, gold all throughout, you know, our adult
lives basically has been suppressed, and silver is the perfect example.
I knew at thirty two and a half, and I
think we had even talked about that number, because I
seem to remember we had I'm going to look it up.
We had an interview way back when, and that thirty
two to thirty three number was kind of like really
an important number. And once it blew through that I
think in May that was that was it. And we
got three things happening here. Two of them I'll mention
another one. You can send me an email. But look
what happened Thanksgiving the day after Thanksgiving Giving melt up, right,
we went up two three bucks. I can't remember fifty
three point fifty right? And why was that? Because I
have a theory, and most metal traders never take off
the holidays. They'll take off any other times, but they
won't take off the day after Christmas, the day after Thanksgiving,
and the day after New Year's because all of the
banks have got their A teams are off skiing in Zermatt,
the B teams in Florida or in the Caribbean. The
seeded team is showing up but they're hungover, and the
D team is the margin clerks. The margin clerks are
running the show. And that's why you have these blowouts.
So we got one up here Christmas right, December twenty sixth,
and then we got January second. In addition, that's when
all the funds realign their poor folios. Like I don't
want to make predictions because you know I'm always wrong,
but certainly the groundwork is set for a monster move forward.
Plus we're in this inasonality fourth quock beginning in the
first quarter. Yeah, I mean, what's the limit here, Craig,
you hit them all.
Speaker 1: Kerrie, let's touch on your first point about the breakout
on Black Friday. There's a lot of would actually I don't.
I hate to call it nonsense, but it's verifiable as
it clickbait that made it sound like, oh, there is
some massive amount of deliveries at the Comax that caused
the market to melt down on it is that's bogus.
Oh yeah, anybody, anybody that tracks the metals knows where
to find this information. The CME's on website. And all
that was was the typical first night of deliveries on
a delivery month, and it wasn't one big order for
seven thousand contracts. That's all bogus. What happened on Friday,
Black Friday, right light volume, Like you said, ABTC team,
everybody else is not there. And two things happened. The
old that all that high from October sixteenth was about
fifty four dollars, price went down to forty eight, then
went back up to fifty four dollars, and hey, you know,
then immediately there's this chorus of people that wanted to
be the first to say it was a.
Speaker 4: Double top, which is not.
Speaker 1: But yeah, so anybody everybody starts, you know, looking at
it that way, and so if you're a trader and
you're short, where are you going to place your by stop, Carrie?
Speaker 4: Right above fifty four?
Speaker 1: Right, yeah, if it breaks out, I want to I'm
going to have a stop order in any when you're short,
it's a buy stop, and you're just going to have
that on there. Good Ntil canceled at the same time
when you and we moved through fifty four during comacs
hours on Black Friday, so it's light volume, not many
people around, and you get this surge of buying from
the CTA, you know, managed funds, managed commodity funds, commodity
advisors buying, chasing the volume up.
Speaker 4: Through fifty four.
Speaker 1: At the same time, you get all this short covering,
which is more buying, and you end up with a
three dollars and fifty cent up move up to fifty
seven and a half or whatever it was on that Friday, Carrie. Actually,
the same thing happened. I were recording this here on
Wednesday the tenth. The same thing happened yesterday, Tuesday, the night, yes,
reasonably light volume day ahead while the FOMC was meeting,
we moved up through those fifty seven highs, and it
happened again, and you could actually see on the volume
charge a little five minute candlesticks. The highest volume of
the day was right when price broke through fifty seven,
and you've got another surge of the CTA brying in
short covering. Yeah, so it becomes again this inertia thing.
It becomes a higher prices lead to higher prices type
of thing. Now we've seen, you know, CTAs can rush
for the exits all at the same time too. We
saw some of that in late October, so you got
to be mindful of that. But there's a lot of
stuff going for us when we can kind of talk
through this stuff, you know, you know, one by one
if you want. But there's a lot suggesting that we're
going to rally into year in and rally in January
as well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well it's a coil, I think. Yeah, once talked
about it the jack in the box. You keep turning
the handle and turning the handle, and eventually that thing
pops out, and you know, it's just you know, it
always feels good to be right for a change. As
we watched this for you know, really since twenty eleven,
with a couple of breakouts like could have bed in sixteen,
but you know, it never got over thirty for long. Yeah,
and you know, to all of a sudden see it
finally and really like the amazing thing was like I'm
buying stuff on eBay and like you can front it's
not front running, but like people would put up their
silver on like Thursday and Friday, there'd be a run up,
and then they didn't take it down. They didn't change
their price. So you're buying it below MILT value on
eBay all right. Now, obviously price goes down your above
melt value, but that hasn't happened, and you could just
pick them off, and then there's mispricing. There's a lot
of unsophisticated sellers, and then there's sophisticated sellers like coin
shops that should know better, and they're messing up. Now
all of those discounts to melt are pretty much gone.
Maybe find some war nickels.
Speaker 1: Remember we were people were saying all the time back
in twenty fifteen and seventeen, silver will never go up
up because as soon as it gets to thirty and forty,
everybody's going to be selling all the silver Bay bought
in twenty ten, and people gonna be dumping Grandma's candlesticks
and all that kind of well, hell, we're all the
you know, we blew through that, right.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 4: It's you mentioned though, Carrie. It we're talking about.
Speaker 1: You and I met in what like twenty twelve, right,
you know, this is all stuff we've discussed now for
over a decade, you know, the physical supply issue, the
leveraged markets, the derivative markets that were created in nineteen
seventy five to kind of olcomize metal, to get people
to accept a dot on a screen. You know, a
future's price is the actual price, right. And then these
banks that live you know, hand to mouth, you know,
between managing the price in New York and delivering the
medal in London, kind of just in time delivery, managing
their books, the using the ETFs as flywheels. You know,
every time they get a short metal, they get some
out of the SLV or the GLD, you know, and
they short it and they get it out and then
they hope they can buy it back later and put
it back.
Speaker 4: All of that crap.
Speaker 1: Has been going on for as long as you and
I have been talking.
Speaker 4: Well, and we knew it was it.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is certainty that this was eventually that
the music was going to stop. Is that app exactly exactly?
And that's where these banks are now. You know, whether
it's the central bank demand and now the tether demand
that underpins the physical market for gold, or whether it's
the eight hundred million ounce supply deficit over the last
four years combined with ramped up industrial demand, uh for silver,
all of these things are now kind of coming home
that can't be shell gamed away anymore. And that's where
again I see this stuff every day, these wave counters
and people, the technical analysts and the stuff, and they
try to, you know, create a reason why that dot
on the screen is going to go back down to
like its old moving average or something. It isn't don't
have anything to do with any of that at this point.
And that's where the people listening to you and I
I hope they've been listening all these years, but I
hope they're still they're not looking at the price and going,
oh gosh, it's too expensive. The one last point while
I'm on this thought carry that people need to understand
if you're looking at gold specifically or silver for that matter,
and saying it's expensive and it's got to go down.
Speaker 4: You're looking at.
Speaker 1: The price all wrong. Gold hasn't changed. That's why the
gold doesn't have any utility, right, it just collects dust.
It's a pet rock. It doesn't pay a dividend. All
this gold is just goal. And what's changing is the
amount of dollars or euros or yen or whatever that
it takes to buy that same ounce the gold hasn't changed.
What's changing is the destruction of the purchasing power of
your currency. For the dollar, ten years ago, it took
eleven hundred dollars to buy that one ounce of gold.
That same ounce of gold at five year years ago
took twenty two hundred dollars. That same ounce of goal
takes forty four hundred dollars. It's not the gold that's
getting expensive. It is your your currency that is wasting away.
And that's how people need to understand it.
Speaker 3: Well, that is true, but we have with silver, we
got an added boost there.
Speaker 4: Well, and that too. I mean it's the same thing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, shortage, we have shortish, we have escalating burgeoning industrial demand.
Add manipulation. That's a that's coming to an end, all right.
It looks to me like this suppression scheme is all.
But you know we could talk why.
Speaker 4: Would you, right would you? Why would you be shorting it?
Speaker 1: I mean saying, you know you have that if you
went at fifty dollars silver, if you are, I mean
pick a bullion bank, and you know we're gonna aggressively
shorten cap it when you're just getting buried.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, we Rick said when I interviewed them last time,
I said, what do you think of the people who
are short silver? And he said, the people who are
exercising these complex you know, paper shortthages, whatever complex trades
are going to be annihilated. And you've heard up to
say it before, they're going to have a religious experience.
Speaker 4: That's Rion's what you'd always say.
Speaker 1: Well, and remember Carrie, we always as we would talk
about the comax and all of this leverage, and that
it would always come up about the gold silver ratio.
Remember that, and people would already say the ratio should
be fifteen to one and said it's one hundred to one.
Speaker 4: Why is that?
Speaker 1: And I said it's actually, I think the best way
to understand it is it's a leverage ratio. You know,
you might just consider silver is six times more levered
than gold. Now that's you know, not I don't think
you can do a one to one look at it
that way. But the reason why it was always eight
to one or twelve to one to fifteen to one
and all said it's one hundred to one is a
function of all of the derivatives, the phony boloney, plastic banana,
you know, good time rock and roll, futures contracts, and
that's what's now being forced to be unwound. Yeah, and
that's where that's where the excitement lies.
Speaker 3: Hey, what's our goal to silver? Aci and s sixty
eight or nine to one? Yeah, it was ae hundred,
it was one hundred and eight. Yeah, right, uh uh.
I mean that in itself should tell everybody and think, oh,
but silver's too high. You know, it's at record pripey.
And I'm not saying buy or don't buy. I'm just
saying that's not really and you said it, that's not
really a valid reason not to buy, because well, you
know people, people are always buying stuff at the top.
But the question is, so strategy here, when do you
start like shedding a little bit of your supply? Are
you preparing for armageddon? Here? Is this the armageddon trade.
Speaker 1: This is the same answer from ten years ago, you know,
when people would always say, okay, so when you sell, Well,
the problem is, if I sell a ten ounce bar
of silver, someone is going to give me back six
hundred US dollars.
Speaker 4: Yeah, what the hell do I want those for? Yeah,
you know, that's the problem.
Speaker 1: I mean, I suppose you could know lever it into
buying some mining shares or something, or maybe you know,
that's what's great about the legal tender laws that are
making their way around the US now, so you can
actually use the metal exchange for other real assets. You know,
maybe you can buy some land or a home, you know,
or you know something.
Speaker 4: But that's the problem.
Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, you might sound good, I'm going to sell
this now and haul some down to my coin dealer
or you know whatever. But again, what are you getting
when you sell? You're getting feet dollars back or euros back,
and that's that's no bargain. So you've got to have
a plan for that. But Carrie, at the end of
the day, this has been such a wild year.
Speaker 4: When I wrote my remember my.
Speaker 1: Macro cast, we talked about every Yeah, k sure, we
were coming off a twenty five percent year in gold
last year, and in the previous four times that's happened
this century, gold has either gone barely higher, flat or
down the next year when Carrie, we're up like sixty
percent now as a follow up, so, I mean this
is this is very much unprecedented, and I think in
large part it is because it's just a collection of
stuff that you're kind of being warned is coming, and
it's being front run in a way. And so when
people say, you know, should I still be buying or
should I still be holding twenty twenty six is going
to be that's what's being front run.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: Remember back in February, remember Bessent with is we're going
to monetize the I said of the balance sheet?
Speaker 4: Remember all that talk?
Speaker 3: Yeah right.
Speaker 1: There was also the verbiage of the by Bitcoin Act
or the Bitcore Reserve Act, where it says in the
bill that they're going to revalue gold to its market
price up from forty dollars forty two to twenty two
or whatever. It's carried out now as a deficit neutral
way of coming, you know, getting cash from the Fed
to fund the Bitcoin Act. So there's all of that
that's out there you've got. Bessett has talked about emerging
the operations of Fed and Treasury working hand in glove.
In twenty twenty six, Powell comes out and says all
this stuff again today about oh well, only one cut
next year, and all this kind of jazz, and he's
as lame duck as it gets. Who cares what Powell thinks.
He's gone in May anyway, And so all of this
stuff is pointing toward dramatically lower interest rates, probably some
form of yield curve control, sharply negative real interest rates, remonization,
revaluation of gold. All of these things are coming next year.
So it's again it's not straight up. It's going to
continue in this pattern that's held for almost two years
now of twenty percent rallies and then consolidations and then
twenty percent rallies. But we're far from a top for
gold and definitely far from a top for silver, and
so people need to plan accordingly with that.
Speaker 3: In money, well, we're still seeing higher highs and higher
those we'll say the trends your friend here, Yeah, and
you see it even on a daily basis, The higher
highs and the higher lows.
Speaker 4: And the dips get bought.
Speaker 1: There'll be this big mass rush of selling of futures
usually while the COMEX is open, and get these huge
red bars of volume and price will plunge a dollar
dollar fifty or something, and then that dries up, the
vibe goes away in prices.
Speaker 3: Saw tooth. Yeah, really fun. And like we were talking
about the day after Thanksgiving a black Friday, well, historically
those would be the days when they slammed silver. Yes,
there was no liquid the not yeah, right, and a
very short a very uh you know, just a little
concentrated sell into that market, especially in the access market.
We even talk about the access market, right, which is
most subject to manipulation or for sure. And even there
when you see when you see silver go up a
buck in the access market.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you still see them trying to hit it. I
always call it the after hours, the billbacks, you know,
the the bid size, the training volume shrink by about
ninety percent once the COMEX hour stop, and so you
get so much more bang for your buck if you're
trying to influence price. And I'm not saying it's going
to be green candles every day, there's still going to
be uh slams. There's still going to be, you know,
the chasing out of that momentum like we saw in October.
There's still going to be consolidation phases. Gold is still
technically in a consolidation phase. In the peaked in middle
of October and now we're in the middle of December
and we're still below that peak. But there are going
to there's no reason to suggest yet that any kind
of top is in either. You mentioned the pattern higher
highs and higher lows, you start breaking down and making
lower lows. Okay, well, then we've got something to talk about.
But for now, as we head to the end of
the year, you said seasonally strong period. Once we get
past about the fifteenth of December, and certainly all through January,
the dollar is weaker, the dollars falling again from one
hundred and is back under ninety nine. When nobody's expecting
at this point as a dollar to go back to
the lower end of its range this year, down near
ninety six. Well, if that happens, that's going to get
the computers buying the futures too.
Speaker 4: There's a lot of really.
Speaker 1: Positive stuff for the metals, and my strategy continues to
be try to trade the dip and try to ride
the next wave up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I've done something and I don't recommend it. I
don't obviously, you don't give financial advice here.
Speaker 4: I don't wally imagine what you're going to say.
Speaker 3: I've done something so stupid, Craig, you know, like the
dumbest trade on the street, you know what it is.
Speaker 4: I can think of a few, but I can't imagine.
Speaker 3: The dumbest trade. But that's how good this market is AGQ.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, the all futures etf yeah.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the dumbest trade on the street. Right, it's just
generally I've got.
Speaker 4: It going to zero, yeah, yeah, because you can't hold
it long.
Speaker 1: Let's put it that way. You can't just buy it
and take US certificate.
Speaker 3: But you buy it, it goes up twenty percent in
three days. Yeah, and then but you know, it's not
a bad thing to hold when we get these holiday
trades coming in, right, see melt ups here almost certainly
unless they unload everything and they do the what did
we call it, the monetary and who knows who got contracts,
they just dumped them. But the danger is, and you've
said this for years, and I've quoted you so many times,
I always give you attribution is like when they get
to the point where they drive the price below what
its physical should be, and then all the buyers come
rushing in because they tripped all the algorithms and they
know that now and yeah, they just can't do what
they used to do, Craig. And that's maybe that's where
the suppression's really ending.
Speaker 1: Yeah, particularly in gold, and we're probably starting to see
that in silver the gold move. When I wrote the
macrocast this year, I said, what did I get Always
do that just for myself so I can go back
and realize what I was Remember what I was thinking
in January, and what.
Speaker 4: Did I get wrong?
Speaker 1: And what I missed last year was the impact of
this relentless, really central bank demand. We got to throw
the tether demand on there too, and so it really
hampered what has always been the ability of these banks
to just overwhelm the bid and smash price down and
get the price rolling, because you get to a certain
point where here comes that physical bid and it just
pushes it right back up again. And that's been the
underlying this pattern really since late twenty twenty three, about
October of twenty twenty three. So it's been more than
two years now, and we're getting to that point where
silver is looking like that too, and that's going to
be again, we don't know. We've always wondered, you know.
You remember the Gata hearings on Capitol Hill in twenty ten,
you know about are there one hundred digital ounces for
every one physical ounce? No one's ever known. We're in
the process of finding out.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I think you're early in.
Speaker 4: The process, too early in the process.
Speaker 3: I think Rick knows, I think Eric Spratt knows. I mean,
those are the people who really got access to the data,
but nobody totally he knows, right.
Speaker 4: Right, nobody knows exactly.
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, because it's deliberately opaque, you know, and you
don't know. You know that we could go on and
on about the vaults of London and how much silver
and gold do they really have underpinning you know, what
are multiples ten times, twenty times, one hundred times whatever
the unallocated trade that they have every single day in
London and versus off of this actual physical float what
is there and that's what's being drawn down. We don't
know how much it is. London will claim it's a
certain number but nobody, nobody knows.
Speaker 4: Right, and so anyway it's coming.
Speaker 1: You know. I remember recording a video for Kinesis four
or five years ago that they turned into a little
promo video where I was talking about unallocated accounts and
how if you're in one of these deals, you know,
at a Canadian bank or you know, in Switzerland or something,
and they say, yeah, this is a great deal. Yeah
it's your metal, but no storage. Well right right there,
that should shoot up a red flag. Wait a second.
An allocated account is my medal, and it says there's
you know, one percent storage v An unallocated account is
supposedly my medal and it's one tenth of one percent
of a sort fee. Well no, wait a second, that's
you're right there, she said off. But anyway, that's where
the real weakness is, those allocated accounts around the world,
where everybody thinks they've got the metal fleck, these hedge
funds and the like, Even really smart smart people like
Paul Tudor Jones or Stanley Druga Miller.
Speaker 4: The thing they own metal, they've got price exposure. When
they own an ETF. They don't own jack.
Speaker 1: And that's where the real weakness is going to show
up first again.
Speaker 4: That's where it looks like it's coming. That's what's going
to happen.
Speaker 3: That's further away. ETFs are so risky. You know R's
buff It says, you don't know who's wearing a bathing
suit until the tide goes out, and who's swimming naked
and we're going to find out soon enough. Hey, so
Tfmetal Reports dot Com and go there. It's still less
than Actually it's less than three lattes at a certain
undisclosed strawthee shop less than three. So I can't that
is a steal, especially if you pegged it to silver.
Could you imagine what your price would be?
Speaker 1: That's true, you know what, That's what I should do.
I should charge every month what an ounce costs. It's like,
it's funny. I'd like to do contests on my side
every once in a while, you know, get people involved
on you know, worst price going to end at the
end of the week and all that kind of stuff.
The price typically is I used to make my own
Scottsdale silver, used to make my own TFMR silver rounds,
and so that used to be you know, no problem,
give one of those babies away for twenty bucks. Well,
now it's sixty more contests.
Speaker 3: The dollars are worth less. But well we'll do a
TFR sub encription to physical ratio there.
Speaker 4: I like now, I like it, you know, to one third.
Speaker 3: It's a steal. It's a third, you know. Yeah, but
you can't beat that.
Speaker 4: I be using I'm stealing that, Carrie. I like that
a lot.
Speaker 3: And if you'd only listened to Craig Good ten years ago, man,
you wouldn't. You would have paid for a lifetime of
TF Metals report. So hey, the links in the show notes, questions, comments,
shoot me an email kl at Carrie LUTs dot com. Craig,
we will talk to you again real soon.
Speaker 4: Thanks for coming on always fun, my friend.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your
solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to
Financial Survivalnetwork dot com. Financial Survival Network now more than
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