Speaker 1: I Live.
Speaker 2: Welcome in to the opening line report. Kelly Stewart here
putting out early rage bait on Twitter. Uh oh, I'm
in trouble already. Teddy Covers joining us here. We're gonna
talk about conference championships and we're gonna give you a
little national championship. I'll i'll preview as well, Teddy, because
I gotta put myself in a conundrum. Shocker, I know.
Let's get in to the conference championships. I want to
hear what you thought of things yesterday? Right, Like I
kind of pissed off some Patriots fans because I said
Drake May was not a good playoff quarterback. Right, the fumbles,
the interceptions. Now, i'llbeit he looked better than CJ. Stroud
or Caleb Williams. But good grief, was that some sloppy
football by the Patriots yesterday, even though the final score
didn't reflect that.
Speaker 1: So the weather matters, you know, sometimes the weather mattered
ninety nine percent of NFL games. The weather doesn't matter.
It mattered in New England yesterday for sure. Did it
mattered in both of the Patriots We talked about. Oh,
let's rip Drake May. Let's rip CJ. Stroud. The conditions
were difficult for offense in both games yesterday. You know,
the weather mattered as well in Chicago against the Rams,
but it's certainly I think the weather was as important
as any other factor in the Patriots win over the Texans.
And when we talk about Drake May struggled, he was
playing against the single best defense in the league in
crappy conditions. We're not gonna say Drake May can play
in the playoffs because he hasn't had a brilliant offensive performance.
And of course, Drake May was not in a situation, Kelly,
where he had to do anything, because the Patriots defense
was good enough to dominate both games, two playoff games.
We was giving up one touchdown that came after a
May interception on the twenty seven year drive. So it's
been the Patriots defense that's been able to control the
flow and all of well, Drake May isn't playing his best,
doesn't matter. Drake May's done everything New England's needed in
a pair of double digit victories.
Speaker 2: Okay, fair enough, I won't rage bait Patriots fans anymore.
They're already mad at me enough after yesterday. Let's get
into the late game. Because I got to cash that
Matthew Stafford underpassing yards. But I was like, great, we're
going to overtime after he's sitting right at two oh five,
and I was like, oh boy, buckle up. That was
nice because I did expect Matthew Stafford once again on
the road to struggle offensively. I was not impressed with
the Rams whatsoever, but the Bears made enough mistakes to
keep the Rams in that one. Yes, Caleb Williams had
some Joe Montana esque plays, but that was about it.
Breakdown kind of what you saw from both of those
teams yesterday and what the Rams are kind of lacking
right now this late in the playoffs. I just feel
like their defense stepped up enough yesterday get them to win.
But Matthew Stafford, outside of a couple of passes, I
just wasn't impressed with him.
Speaker 1: So again in the playoffs, we're gonna overreact to everything
that we see. Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Fame
quarterback in the midst of an MVP caliber season who
just went on the road in back to back weeks
and guided his team to tough road victories and carry
them in the fourth quarter of these tough road playoff games.
Matthew Stafford has been freaking brilliant. Now, yesterday was Stafford
at his absolute best? No, he was not. Were the
weather conditions a factor and that, of course they were. Again,
the weather was as big as any other factor in
both games yesterday. Stafford say, oh, well, he used to
play in Detroit. You used to play inside of Detroit
and that was a half a decade ago. All right.
You put Stafford in the cold when the wind chows
are below zero, and you're not gonna get grade A
Matthew Stafford not gonna happen, you know, not like we
saw great a Gatub Williams or anyone offensively. And of
course that was the only game all weekend that stayed
under the total. If you were playing favorites and overs,
you know much of the chagrin of the book. If
you're a chalk eating weasel this weekend you did pretty well, obviously,
because the Rams were the only team that didn't cover
in the Rams that were the only one that stayed
under the total. Other was favorite and over Favorite and
over favorite and over for the first three playoff games
of the weekend. And I'm sure that's not a great
result for the house. And when you talk to John
Murray later today or tomorrow, whenever you talk to him,
I'm sure he'll express that sentiment you. I'm sure it
was not a good weekend, a particularly good weekend for
the book makers. But to say, oh my god, Matthew
Stafford didn't play the single best game any quarterbacks ever
played yesterday. No, he didn't, you know, and McVeigh after
the games, like, my play calling wasn't good, I didn't
have the offense ready. McVeigh took the plane for not
the offense not being as efficient as it was. But
you know, when you punt in ot, you're expecting to lose,
and that's what the Rams did yesterday. They punted in ot,
but they still found the way to win, even though
they did not get the point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we could blame my mush of a boyfriend with
the Rams futures ticket. He said, I think Caleb's due
for another interception. I said, I was not gonna throw
a three. Bear's money line was a little painful, and
that was my own fault, Teddy, I was complaining to
you before the show.
Speaker 3: That's where bankroll management comes into play.
Speaker 2: I had a nice plus four in pocket, and I
decided to hit the gas pedal on Bear's money line
and basically split the game. That being said, let's talk
about another game that I did not hardly watch it all.
So we're gonna save the best game for last. That
would be Broncos Bills. But I'm hosting Saturday. I got
people over for the Broncos game. What a thrilling ending.
Next game, boom right away Seahawks touchdown bexting. You know,
I had a couple of Moscow mules, and I said,
what happened to the Niners because I was inside outside
grill and doing my thing.
Speaker 3: That was was that.
Speaker 2: An epic performance by Seattle, Was that everything went their way?
Was that the Niners injuries just caught up with Albeit,
I did not watch anything but snippets of that game
because it really wasn't one no, So.
Speaker 1: For the clients and I split this weekend. You know,
I had one winner with the over in the Broncos
Bills and one loser stepping in front of the Patriots again,
which I could smack myself in the head for the one.
I'm kicking myself about. The one that I was you know, shit,
it was I mean, I'm right there with Seattle, and
I don't pull the trigger. I'm like, I, you know,
I bet against san Fran last week and it cost me,
and I'm like, I just I didn't get there, and
I didn't get there really for one reason. That reason
was Sam Donald. You know, I'm like, I cannot trust
Sam Donald against a good defense. I cannot trust Sam
Donald in a game of this magnitude. And Donald was
a non factor when when you return the opening kick
for a touchdown, you know, when you run for one
hundred and seventy yards and when you're playing a team
let's be on. I mean that was Seattle good, but
it was san Fran exiling and we talked about it
on the show last Monday, Kelly. I read a couple
of quotes from the forty nine ers that these quotes,
these are we accomplished something quotes, not we're hungry and
driving quotes. And and I mean literally that game was
the opening kick on returned for a touchdown, and at
no point after that did it feel like san Fran
was going to make a run. You know, they were done.
They fought the good fight, They got a road playoff victory.
Another one on the other side of the country wasn't happening.
You know. That was to me as every bit, if
not more about the forty nine ers, who, you know again,
for the injuries they had, for the adversity they faced
this season. We could do nothing to get San Francisco credit.
But they were at a steam. You know, they knew it,
they showed it, and Seattle took care of business in
a in a you know again, a game that was
not all that entertaining to watch except the total. You
had to sweat it till the fourth quarter, and it
sneaks over in the fourth so one last Seahawks touchdown.
Speaker 2: Maybe some other people would argue with me, but I
think the most entertaining game this weekend was Bill's Broncos.
I had a great time watching that game. As a
Broncos fan. I had both sides teas, so I didn't
really care about the final result from a betting perspective,
But man, was that a that was kind of a
wild ending. A lot of people, if you had the Bills,
were complaining about the refs and unfortunately bo Nicks got hurt.
So we will talk about that when we talk about
Broncos Patriots. Because I have lots of questions. But you
mentioned you had the over Teddy, so you had a
nice rocking chair winner there for your clients.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, it's good to be on the right side
of some of these. Although we have to talk about
the three controversial. I mean all three of them were
extremely controversial. And when the refs literally go, nah, we
don't want Buffalo to win. Here that's an interception. And
then oh, here's a past interference call that's dicey, and
then here's another pass interference call that's trailer. A lot
of these games played over the weekend. The teams had
one penalty, two penalties. The refs did a good job
of swallowing their whistles unless they had to, and in
that game you had a very contra I mean again,
I had no play on the side either, and if
you have both sides teas, it doesn't matter. But that
interception's got to be reviewed. Okay. You know when I
watch I watched the first slow Move, I'm like, you know,
I watch it. You know, I watch a ton of NFL.
That's all I do every week is watch NFL. And
I watched the I watched the people. I'm like, I
don't know what. Wow, that's a really tough call. I
didn't know. And next thing, you know, I was like, no, no, no,
it's it's an interception ball going this way. It's like, what,
you know, you can understand why McDermott was as mad
as he was after the game. And then the two
passion interference calls. I mean, I don't think either one
of them is legit in that situation to call and
make that call, to say, all right, right, you know,
I thought there were very tough calls against Buffalo, you know,
and again, I got no skin in the game. I'm
not Bill's mafia. I'm not Broncos fan, but you don't
want refs deciding who goes to the next round. And
if he tackles him, sure, but the dice he calls,
the fifty to fifty calls, dude's got to keep his
playing in his pocket there, So, I mean Bill's and
then today, you know, with the repercussions with McDermot getting
fired this morning off of that, that's tough, Bills, mom,
I mean, that's that's really tough. Now, let's give Dever credit.
You know, they did what they needed to do. They
won the game. But the refs gave them the game,
and that's not appropriate at this data. The refs gave
them the game. They did.
Speaker 2: You know, hey, listen, like I said, I was watching,
there was a thirty people at my house watching, So
you're you're catching glimpses, you're hearing oohs and odds, you're
walking in and out, and next thing you know, you're like,
I'll take it. I guess it's just one of those things,
saidy as a As a Broncos fan, I have had
horrific calls go against me. So when calls go my direction,
I just say, oh, well, but you're right. We never
want referees being able to influence the games. Unfortunately it
happens every single week in the NFL.
Speaker 3: They are humans as well. They do make mistakes.
Speaker 2: Let's get into these conference championship games, though, because I'm
go ahead so I.
Speaker 1: Want I said, if we're gonna talk to national championship
game tonight, we should do that. I thought we're gonna
do that at the top, So we'll.
Speaker 2: Do it right now. We'll do national championship first before
we get into conference championships. If you guys have a
question regarding the national Championship please let me know, Teddy.
I have spent the last two weeks teasing the National
Championship Indiana down below a field goal minus one and
a half minus two with a bunch of different NFL.
It pretty much all worked out for me as a whole.
I have five six legs six legs teased with the
Indiana Hoosiers, and yesterday I said, all right, all right,
I gotta take a little.
Speaker 3: I got too much liability here on Indiana.
Speaker 2: Basically to win the game, right, like, obviously I need
them to win by two, but to essentially just win
the game, I think I've overexposed myself. I don't love
this game one way or another. So I did take
some Miami plus eight and a half this morning opened
up my eyes logic screen. Lots of seven and a
half's popping up. So people either said, hey, this line
has gotten out of control, or maybe what's going on here?
Are we seeing sharp money at eight and a half
or are we just seeing people finally starting to buy
in on the Hurricanes.
Speaker 1: So this is what we've seen on this line. Okay.
It opened seven and a half, Okay, And we talked
about it and said there's only one way it can
go from here right now, because they didn't take the
seven and a half right away. It wasn't going down,
it was only going up. And I dawdled, you know,
and then said it moved up at boom eight and
a half. At eight and a half, it stuck, all right,
didn't go any further, whatever public support that was for
any I didn't move the number, and I said, all right,
it's gonna come back down. And am I write up
for the class. I even wrote this line's coming the
other way, so be ready when it comes down. And
obviously that's what we've seen. Now we've seen it drive
back down to seven and a half. I would not
be shocked. I mean, if we see some sevens the
Sharps do like Miami in this barga. Again, the look
headline for this was five five and a half. So
the fact that we're seeing seven and a half, eight
eight and a half tells us the reaction of what
we've seen from Indiana just last game. You know, with
Indiana obviously, you know, with two blowout victories here in
the playoffs, when we talk about every team gets tested,
every team gets tested, you know, that's something I remember.
I always talked about in the NBA tournament, and then
all of a sudden you get a team like Yukon
that goes six games and beats it all six by
double digit margins. You go, well, everyone gets tested most
of the time. You know. Indiana certainly played like a
team that is on a mission, you know. And that
being said, this is certainly a point spread that is
a little bit out of whack with a what we
seen for thecwusers all season. Be Miami hasn't been a
dog this big all year, you know. I mean they
haven't lost a game this big all year. You know.
The Hurricanes two losses by a field goal and ot
and by six, So it's not like they've been blown
off the field by anyone. So in terms of what's
going to happen today, we've already seen under money come in.
This was it's forty eight and a half at the Open.
Now I'm seeing forty seven slash forty seven and a half.
I'm not convinced we're going to see any more under money.
We would, but I think forty seven is about as
low as it's going to go. From a side standpoint. Again,
we're seeing the money coming right now. For Miami. You know,
I'm seeing seven and a half even money here in
Las Vegas. I'm seeing seven and a half at plus
money in the global market. So we're definitely seeing some
wise guys support for the Miami Hurricanes as we speak.
That said, you know, we expected the wise guys to
be on Miami because the number is higher than it
was supposed to be just a week ago. That said,
I'm not convinced that it's going to go down to seven.
We could. We've seen some crazy line moves the last
hour or two before kickoff in national titles games. You know,
I remember a good handful of them. We're you know,
I remember USC Oklahoma where USC is laying three and
then all of a sudden its pick them. You know.
So this line could move back down to seven, it
could even go below, but sometimes you do see a
ground slow support. I'm not convinced that's going to be
the case today. Seven and a half feels to me
like where it's going to go off at. If it
goes off anywhere else, maybe seven and eight in this
base opinion, at least in the books that cater to Teddy.
Speaker 2: We've got some questions in the chat regarding this game,
one of our wager talking insiders has Indy Ada minus
five and a half. Now, the ten and a halfs
are long gone. That would have been a nice middle position.
But as it currently stands, if you get eight or
eight and a half, how big of a gap are
you looking to middle games?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: I know guys that lay seven all day and take
seven and a half all day. That's what they do
three and a half seven, especially in the NFL. Right,
But in terms of this National Championship, if you can
still get a three point middle, let's say that for
some reason he has a local that's still hanging an.
Speaker 3: Eight and a half.
Speaker 2: If you can get a three point middle on this game,
do you think that is worth taking? Obviously I did
because of the teaser side of things, hoping to get
a little greedy. Maybe Indiana wins by you know, two, three, four, five, six,
seven or eight. That's a pretty sizable middle there.
Speaker 3: Three points two.
Speaker 2: Points even now with it being seven and a half,
I'm not sure I'd be trying to throw that needle.
Speaker 1: So I'm not a middler, all right. If you're a
high volume player and you're consistently able to get reduced
juice bets down. You can absolutely play a middling game,
but that takes being at the screen, and you know
it's not something you want to do one. It's something
you want to do again and again and again. It's
something that you're gonna do every single day. That's not
how I bet, That's not how I handicap. That's not
my amo. Okay, So the best advice I ever got
from middling was from my old departed friend Dave Olinski said,
real simple, you're thinking about middling a game, all right,
start with the first bet you have, right, the bet
you already have down. He's like, do you still like
that bet? If you still like that bet, then you
hold it. If you no longer like that bet, then
you look for ways to get off it. So the
whole handicap comes with that very for first bet you
make the first part of the middle do you like
Indiana minus five and a half or do you not
like that bet anymore? If you like Indiana minus five
and a half, you hold it, don't worry about middle it.
If you don't like the bet anymore, you say, yeah,
I'm reading the tea leaves and I'd rather have Miami
plus and Indiana minus. Right. Now, that's when you look
to get off that bet, and you can obviously do
it with a polytic expectation scenario if you can catch
plus eight and a half. But if you're looking in
the middle around a key number again, you can profitably
middle that reduce jukee six and a half, seven and
a half. You know, I mean, it's a lot, but
you it's not something that's gonna happen once. You have
to do it over and over and over again. And
if you win, you know, one out of ten, you're
doing fine, and then theory're supposed to win more than that.
So but it's not something that I've being that type
of a better a middler per se. It's difficult, man,
it really is. It's it's a it's a it's a
it's a hard way to make an easy living. But
in terms of what do I do with my Indiana minus,
you like Indiana minus five and a half, you don't
do a damn thing. You hold it, maybe in the
middle of it, look for something in game. But if
you've got an itche and you're like, yeah, I don't
know if I love this bet anymore, you look for
the best number you can find on Miami and you
better or you take some Miami miney line. That's the
other option that and that'll make you have to risk
less on the second side of the leg than you
would if you're laying minus one ten.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where I'm at. Teddy is debating on how
much I want to have on Miami. I bet a
couple of dimes yesterday. Now I'm seven and a half
across the board as I was just looking, So I
may just say, all right, I got a little bit
off of Indiana.
Speaker 3: Let's let's gamble and see how this National Championship goes.
Speaker 2: Any other advice for anyone betting the National Championship tonight?
Speaker 1: So as we to this point of the season, we
have to there's a couple disclaimers we got to give. Okay, First,
there ain't no bad points spreads this time of year,
all right, And I say, oh, this is not a
bad Oh, this lot of the books don't know what
they're doing. Oh, these guys are idiots. That ain't the case.
All right. So we're gonna see a fair few games.
And it may not be this game, but certainly yesterday
and over the course of the weekend You're seeing games
coming fairly close to the points bread, so be aware
when it comes to a bet sizing, and be the
number of bets you're gonna make. This is not okay,
we're gonna go crazy and make five thousand big bets
on this game, you know, or fifty big bets on
this game. You know. It's not positive expectation in that regard.
So this is the time of year where you definitely
want to bet with your head, not over it. Like
the slogan goes for problem gaming, and be aware. Okay,
I know there's people that struggle with gaming. This time
of year is particularly rough. If you're blowing through your bankroll,
get help now. You know this is not a scenario
where you want to get You know, the weeks leading
up to and the Super Bowl itself are the most
difficult time for compulsive betters and compulsive gamblers. So be
aware if this is If this gig is too much,
walk away and get some help. If you're betting within
reason and you're comfortable with your wagering habits and sizes
like I am, kel like you are, I believe, then
this can be a whole lot of fun.
Speaker 2: No, it definitely can be, but I still think, like
I said in the Bears game, I had I had
the plus four, and I thought, man, I think the
Bears are gonna win this game. I think the Bears
are gonna win this game. I'm looking at a little
bit more. I see it go to four again, and
I'm like, I'm betting the money line. I'm doing it.
And then I've bet the money line, and then I
looked at another account. I was like, I should have
looked here first because it's ten cents better. And then
I've got the money line again. So that was my
own fault for not bet sizing correctly. So even I
do make mistakes or do degenerate things from time to time,
Teddy that you know, you wake up one morning you're like,
all right, idiot, way to go. Don't do that again.
So hopefully I will not make those same mistakes going forward.
Let's get into these conference championships.
Speaker 1: Yeah sure, yeah, you know we haven't done the basic
tenets of an opening line report.
Speaker 2: Yes, right, twenty minutes in we got almost two thousand
of you guys watching. If you guys have a question
for Teddy, we're opening it up for these conference championship.
Gas We're gonna go right into the first game, and
that would be the New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos.
And hey, look right here, Charles says the same question
I have, is this the biggest injury move ever? I
had Nicks or excuse? With Nicks, I had the Broncos favorite.
I did not have the Broncos favored with Bow next Teddy,
I text John Murray, my good friend's CT. I said, Broncos.
I go Broncos. Pick'em. Broncos plus one is where I'm
thinking this line would have been with bow Nicks. Now,
I said, uh, I'm gonna say Broncos plus three two points,
two and a half points with Jared Stidham four four
and a half. And I'm going, what am I missing here?
This seems a little overblown. You mentioned overreactions. Break down
this one for us. What did you make the line
with bon Nicks? What do you make the line with
Jared's Didham? Where are we looking at for this AFC
Championship game?
Speaker 1: So the look headline here, had you know from the
potential hypothetical matchups, had the Denver minus one, there were
pick thems, it was in that range and that's where
my par rating one. My parrating for a healthy Denver
and a healthy New England had this game, pick them
or New England minus a half point. I made a
five point I'm sorry, the Denver minus a half point.
I made a five point adjustment for the injury from
from the transition from Bonnick to Jared's Didham. I don't
know if that is a right number. Okay, that's as
guestimate as guestimate can be. And you're sitting there going,
all right, well, let's see one guy has you know,
has played fairly well but not an approbow level, and
the other guy hasn't taken a snap in two years,
you know, one guy's guide to the team to a
whole bunch of come from behind victories though, and the
other one hasn't. Maybe five points isn't enough. The markets
obviously have adjusted more. With that five point adjustment. My
number came New England minus four and a half. The
markets were at five to five and a half last night.
That's basically what I'm seeing today, five to five and
a half. There is still a four and a half
out there at the super book here in Vegas, total
sitting forty one slash forty one and a half for
New England and Denvers. So to say that anyone knows
what the adjustment should be from Nix to Didham, isn't
it real? Because nobody knows exacting, the bookmakers don't know,
the betters don't know. We don't know what we're gonna
see f Art's did it? We really don't. But we
have a per conceptual framework of how I approach a
team with a veteran starting q with a veteran backup QB,
and what has happened in previous instances when qbs have
gotten hurt, like, for example, both Carson Wentz getting hurt
for Philadelphia and then Nick Foles coming in and leading
the Eagles to a Super Bowl title less than a
decade ago. So in fact, and when when Sean Payton
was talking about the injury, he started talking about all
the guys who have been able to have success. You know,
Cheddy Bridgewater going five and oh with the Saints, when
Drew Brees was hurt, Texans going three and oh with
Davis Mills this year. You know his quote. You know,
plant has always got to be to build on the
type of skill sets and players you're playing with Are
there certain things boat us differings and Stiddy app sbsolutely,
so it's certainly a scenario for Teddy.
Speaker 2: Can I interject? Of course you mentioned Nick Foles, and
Nick Foles had a really funny tweet. If you guys
didn't see it about being able to beat the Patriots.
I'm going to say this as a Broncos fan. I've
seen this team fall flat on their face versus the
Seattle Seahawks, and this Super Bowl right started with that
fumble right out of the gate with Peyton Manning and
then turn right around and have the same Peyton Manning
who was two years older, who was like a statue
out there. Now I understand that it was still Peyton Manning,
but it was that defense. If we're betting on Denver,
does it really matter. I haven't bet on bow Knicks
one time this season. I have only ever bet on
the Denver Bronco defense. Does that make sense? Like, I
know it sounds interesting to say, but if Jared Sidham's
been in this organization for three years, right, I'm not
even gonna talk about the fact that he's practiced with
this team and understands this organization or that he's even
comparable to bon Nicks. But bow Knicks is not without faults.
He turns the ball over, he makes dumb mistakes. We've
seen it because he is a young quarterback. Jared Sidam
is older and has been in this organization just as long.
Does that not?
Speaker 3: I mean, I get that people want.
Speaker 2: To see somebody pass the eye test, but I want
somebody who can just manage the game and let your
defense go out there and win it for you. If
if Drake May fumbles twice and throws an interception, there
is no doubt in my mind that Denver Bronco will
win this football game.
Speaker 1: Sounds to me like you like Denver and you think
the Marcus have overreacted to the absence of bone Nicks. Now,
Denver had what thirteen come from behind wins this year.
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is crazy.
Speaker 1: We have to give bon Nicks a little bit of
credit for that, don't we.
Speaker 2: Sure, Yeah, listen, I would agree with that, But I
also think that bone Nicks is the reason why they
were behind. Remember that Titans game where we came on
here and I said, Teddy, I feel sick to my summa.
I'm going to take the Denver Broncos week one and
survivor with everybody else. I said, if we get bad
bone Nicks, they could lose this game. And we got
bad bon Nicks. I think he had two interceptions in
a fumble and it was just there was Thank god,
the Texans defensive backs couldn't catch the ball and neither
could the Texas or excuse the Titans wide receivers. Remember
cam Ward actually had some great passes and they just
kept getting dropped. I am not some Broncos homer. I
have been against this team when needed, got lucky, gets
that cult with that Colts field goal kick. Speaking of
crazy referee calls that go your way. I just if
I'm betting on Denver, I'm betting on the defense. I
don't care who the quarterback is. It could be you
for all I care.
Speaker 1: So the Broncos defense yesterday or over the weekends. Let's see,
the Bills didn't punt. That's all you need to know.
The Bills didn't punt fair enough. You know, the Giants
scored thirty two against them. Okay, it's a Denver defense that,
just like the quarterback play has been up and down.
You know, I don't think it's Seattle's defense I don't
think it's Houston's defense, and it's kind of shown over
the course of the season that Denver's defense is good,
but perhaps not as elite as some of the elitists
in the league. That being said, can this defense in
theory carry them to victory? Of course they can. You know,
it's not like the like the defense's hopeless or useless.
Jared Stidham is someone worth talking about, all right, career
numbers for Jared's did him one hundred and seventeen completions
one hundred and ninety seven attempts, So he's in his career,
he's got one hundred ninety seven attempts. He's got came
out of Auburn in what twenty eighteen, fourteen hundred years.
Speaker 2: Better at Baylor that I remember. He was a better
Baylor quarterback than he was an Auburn quarterback.
Speaker 1: How about that seven point two yards per past them?
Nineteen sex on those one hundred and ninety seven attempts,
So he's been once every ten times he dropped back
to pass, he's hit the turf. What are those numbers?
They're not.
Speaker 2: And those are all Patriots numbers. Correct?
Speaker 1: When he played for the most lad the last time
he started. He started week seventeen and eighteen four Sean
Payton in twenty twenty three, after Russell Wilson was oh, yes, yes,
here's the Peyton quote. I know how he was coaching
in New England. I know exactly how he was coaching
New England, and then I know how Josh McDaniels felt
about him. But ultimately, in our three years here, so
our three year watching him day in and day out,
he will be ready to go. Sam Allinger is going
to be the backup. They just signed Ben Jinucci to
the practice squad, so they have a third string emergency QB.
More Peyton quotes quote. Splitting reps on offense just doesn't
happen in a work week. The reps are limited and
the starter wants them. But one of Stitty's strengths is
his mental aptitude and his progressions and understanding plays. There
will be practices. I'm looking at DC vance Joseph getting
pissed off because Stitty's making our defense look bad. He's
very accurate, He's got a lot to his ball. So
certainly there appears to be a level of confidence for
the Broncos staff with their backup QB. But of course,
again there were plus four and turnovers last week. And
when you're plus four and turnovers and barely survive in overtime,
it speaks to some goods. And again, it's not like
the Broncos defense in a problem area all year long.
But they've as much as any team in the league.
Denver's played complimentary football. The games the Dames where the
offense hasn't played well, the defense has stepped up. The
games where the defense hadn't stepped well played well, the
offense has been able to step up. But you know,
it's a Patriots team. For all the success they had.
You know, they got thirteen first downs yesterday, you know,
three or fourteen on third downs, two dred and forty
eight total yards three point nine yards per play. Those
are not let's go to the Super Bowl type of
offensive numbers. And yet the defense has played so well
it was good enough to win by a double digit margin.
And there were lots of quotes after the game, Kelly
talking about how this defense felt disrespected because the Texans
were the team that were getting all the hype. And
of course, one of the things I remember when the
Colts won their Super Bowl, whether the Peyton Manning's only
Super Bowl title in Indy, and they had these dismal
defensive numbers and they got the defense got healthy right
in the postseason New England. It started the last couple
of weeks in the playoffs. They've gotten back from injury.
Milton Williams, Chris Tonga, Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, all these
guys sat out time at the end of the regular
season and they've all been contributors here in the postseason.
And this defense has been dominant into playoff games. Now,
the weather had a piece of the equation, and they
played two warm weather teams interns, the Chargers and the Texans.
Now they're leaving the friendly confines of Foxborough and they're
playing a cold weather team in a cold weather environment.
They're not gonna have that edge. But clearly we've seen
this defense really step up. You know, Drake may prop
star defense. They played great. It was tough battle the elements.
We knew they were gonna be a good defense, but
our defense helped us all night. So, I mean, you know,
when you're dominating the other team in the Patriots were
able to shut down the Texans running game completely if
they can do that to Denver. They're gonna win this game.
They're gonna cover this point spread, but well, they're gonna
win this game. They may not cover the foot, but
if they could shut down the Broncos running, because never
has to run the football in this contest. That said,
we look at the two offensive lines in New England
just beaten up on you know, Chargers off the line
had some problems, the Texans off the line had some problems.
The Broncos off the line arguably as good as any
in football. Different type of challenge for New England stopping
the run this week compared to last week. Drake may
is gonna have to play better in those two games
at home. But let's see what the weather is. The
weather could be a whole lot better this week than
last week. For the Let's not forget all the Patriots
stats here in the postseason have to be weather you know,
at least as you're thinking about them, and have to
be weather adjusted, because it's been lousy weather for both
Patriots games, and that's helped them or hurt their opponents
more than it's hurt them, even though it's hurt their
their their own offensive visions.
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy. I know we can talk about this
game forever, but I do have two things I wanted
to bring up. And I know he's ever gonna run
fast wesself another game to go over, And I'm gonna
see this question from more d'angelon bet on it. But
I do wonder how you handicap something like this because
there is no way to quantify the injured player theory.
Marco talks about all the time, your star quarterback bo
Nix gets hurt on the last play of the game
in some weird, fluky incident, and now you've got the
next guy up, Jared Sidham, how does the rest of
the team respond. I mean, the reason why this is
a theory and why people use it as a handicap
is because it does seem that the team rallies around
guy number two. The problem is the math. Guys are
gonna say, cool, what does that do for the point spread?
Speaker 1: Well, I mean again, in this instance, right now, and
by the way, this is worth talking. In fact, let's
not talk about it. Get your get your little siren out, damn,
get the get the theme going, because alive the market
right now? All right, again, it was Patriots minus four
and a half was my powering number. The markets worth
five and a half last night. This morning they were
at five and a half. Boom right now circa back
down to four and a half. Global markets down to
four and a half. There's still plenty of five and
a half out there for New England, but if you
like Denver, grab the plus five and a half. Now
we are seeing movement in the other direction, even with
the loss of bo Nix and the ascension of Jared
Stidham to the starting QB position for the Broncos. So
we are seeing Denver money right now. And again I
made a five point adjustment between the two qbs and
I came up with New England minus four and a half.
The markets are moving that direction right now. The five
and a half may not be there an hour or
two from now, so I would bet them sooner rather
than later. If you like the Denver side.
Speaker 3: Sweet, Okay, all right, we're in.
Speaker 2: We're in with the five and a half. Teddy. That's
all I needed to hear. This is why I love
doing the show. This is basically what I do all show.
Longest ive bet with Teddy, last question, Teddy, only because
I know it's gonna get the comment section upset and
we're gonna rage baits some people.
Speaker 3: Chris Thurston text me last night.
Speaker 2: But cal, why don't you say, like every other sharp
guy on X about how the Patriots haven't played anybody?
And I go, the fact that they haven't played anybody
is just what it is their strength of schedule. They
have to play the schedule that's in front of them. Correct,
But Teddy, what are your thoughts on that strength of
schedule argument? This is going to be one of the
best teams that the Patriots faced all season long, so.
Speaker 1: I agree with that assessment. One of the reasons I've
lost money betting against New England here in the postseason
is because of the strength of schedule issues for the Patriots,
and it's cost me money. So do you flip here?
Maybe I can tell you this. You know, I'm not
laying this price with New England after I've already faded
them twice. I mean, they're betting against the Patriots Or'm
not going to play the game. But certainly now, I'm sorry, call,
I've got a law. What's exactly the question that I'm
supposed to be answering?
Speaker 2: No, I just the argument is the Patriots haven't played anybody, right,
it doesn't matter. They keep winning these games, and they
keep winning the by margin aka covering the spread. They
haven't played anybody, but they single handedly took care of
Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Maybe whether it was a
factor c J. Stroud five interceptions, Kudos to that Patriots defense.
I just when I hear these arguments over and over
and over again, and then the eye test is it
doesn't matter. The Patriots are still winning by margin. What
do we do with that type of information, because you
know there are going to be handicappers that press that
all are all week long saying guess what, the Patriots
don't deserve to be X when the reality is maybe
they do. You just mentioned earlier in the National Championship.
The bookmakers are not given out freebies at this time
of the year. They're not saying, oh yeah, here I
have this crazy number because we're wrong in the market.
Speaker 1: The Patriots went to Buffalo and beat Buffalo. They went
to Baltimore and beat Baltimore on the road. You know,
if they didn't beat anyone all season and here in
the postseason, so I don't have New England. The power
Raider as high as the Rams or the Seahawks. Nobody does,
I don't think. And when we look at the AFCNFC Lions,
the Rams and the Seahawks are both going to be
favored over whoever comes out of the AFC. All right,
But at this stage, after winning a pair of playoff games,
after showing in the regular season, they can go on
the road and beat quality teams. The strength of schedule
argument is comme, it's gone. You know, strength of schedule
stuff works in the wildcard round, it doesn't work after that.
After that you have teams in their own momentum and
for you and you nailed that in terms of you
only play who's on your schedule, that's all you get.
You don't get to say, oh, well this opponent's two
week let me switch it out and play someone tougher.
You don't get that choice.
Speaker 2: All right. I'm not a meteorologist and I do not
play one here on wager Talk TV. But it looks
like it's going to be forty eight degrees in sunny
on Denver in Denver over the weekend, So take that
for what you will. Teddy covers twenty one hundred people
watching this live shout out to all of you guys,
especially our wager Talk insiders. Make sure you guys give
us that like and hit that subscribe button. We just
hit two hundred and forty thousand subscribers yesterday when Aaron
Epstein was hosting Last Call with Teddy. It was amazing,
So thank you to all of you guys. Teddy really
quickly before we get into the NFC Championship game. I
know I was long winded about the other game, because
I was I just wanted to hear your thoughts. Let
me know what you got going on at waier talk
dot com. College Basketball NBA National Championship is tonight Conference
Championships or this weekend WT dot buzz backslash TC to
get on board with Teddy.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we're in play for the national title game
tonight and you go to my homepagetut buzz backslash TC. Obviously,
Kelly just told you we will be in play on
obviously the conference Championhi games. The football has been pretty good, man,
I mean we split out this weekend. I can't. I'm
mad at myself for not playing well, we'll talk about it.
For not playing Seattle against San fran I think I
talked about it ready. I'm still mad at myself today.
Speaker 2: We can still be mad at ourselves. I'm so mad
for betting.
Speaker 1: There's money line. I really it was, you know it was.
It doesn't matter. It's over and we review mirror it.
But bottom line is we'ren't playing the national title game.
We'll be in play obviously for conferencempionship weekend. I'm passing
on the college hoops slate today. We may well have
NBA up and available later. I didn't have a chance
to do it before I came on air with the
eight am Pacific time start to the show. Show post
NBA as soon as we're done, so we'll have that up.
I should be available an hour or now, an hour
from now or less. Should have the association.
Speaker 2: All right, Justin's getting angry at me in the comments section.
Let's get onto the Seahawks Rams game.
Speaker 3: Blabbermouth. Sorry, Justin, here you go, let's get into this.
Speaker 2: Sorry, Teddy, I just cared so much more about the
AFC Championship game, and maybe I should care.
Speaker 3: More about this one.
Speaker 2: We talked about Matthew Stafford and some of his pitfalls
yesterday in the cold weather.
Speaker 3: They're in Chicago.
Speaker 2: Now they're going to face a division opponent for the
third time this year.
Speaker 3: Talk to me about the Rams at Seattle.
Speaker 2: I was surprised to see this one come out a
little shorter than I had expected.
Speaker 1: So Seattle my powering number for the game king two
and a half. The markets open, there were two and
a halfs and threes last night, forty seven and a
half the prevailing total. We're still seeing forty seven and
a half. We're seeing forty sevens. There's forty eight's out
there in the betting markets, so the totals a little bit.
I'm not convinced the markets know which way they're going
to move on the total just yet. And from a
side standpoint two and a half three, two and a
half three. It is bouncing as we speak, so it's
not a scenario where you have to rush to grab
one or the other. That said, I don't think it's
going to hurt you to grab if you like Seattle
late two and a half. Now, if you like the Rams,
find a plus three. Now the line's gonna settle, likely
at one of the two, and it doesn't feel like
it's gonna be two and a half with juice or
three at plus money, but where it settles, it's not
gonna hurt you to lock if you if you want
the two and a half, grab the two and a
half with the favorite. If you want the dog, find
a plus three with the dog. These are good scenarios
for betters, not bad scenarios. You know, when there's line variants,
it allows you to shop for the best of the number.
And that's one of the things I harp on on
this show is making sure that you shop for the
best of the number and get the free half points,
not the ones that you have to pay for it.
But you know, again my numbers two and a half,
the markets are two and three quarters right now forty
seven and a half slash forty seven revealing total as
we speak. And we're not seeing a whole lot of
movement on this game, like we just saw the money
coming in for Denver a few minutes ago. Obviously, if
the Patriots, what do we have we have? Patriots played
Seattle and Denver played Seattle. So if Seattle wins, you
get a for the Super Bowl rematch, doesn't matter. You know,
they had the back to back years. If if the
Rams win, will be a different matchup. But if Seattle wins,
it's going to be a rematch, regardless relatively recent rematch,
you know. I'm talking about the last decade or so,
and that that Bronco Seahawk super Bowl. Always one of
my favorites, you know, but not entertaining in the slightest.
There's nothing like the first play of the game and
you get a safe and you're like, yeah, this game
feels over already.
Speaker 2: It was over already, Teddy. I was at the d
with Derek Stevens and I was like, get me out
of here.
Speaker 3: I hate this team.
Speaker 2: So I think that was the day I.
Speaker 3: Lost my actual fandom for the Denver Broncos. I was like,
hate Manning.
Speaker 2: See you later hit the road, you old man.
Speaker 1: No see. I thoroughly enjoyed that game because I had sorts.
Speaker 3: Were on Seattle.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I knew that and I had I remember
Phil Ivy was in the nightclub and he goes, Kelly,
you have to bet Seattle, and I was like, I'm
not betting Seattle. Phil Seattle will of the play two.
Speaker 1: And a half, last three the number right now forty
seven and a half. Well for the Rams, Okay, why
is the number? Did you say you say this in
the number came shorter than you thought we were gonna
Kelly or Hires.
Speaker 2: We thought we'd see three and a half. I thought
we'd see four. I really thought based on recency bias.
And then when you said you made the game two
and a half, I guess. I guess I was weighing
a little too heavily on the final results of some
of these Seattle blowouts lately, and I haven't been that
high on the Rams.
Speaker 1: So the Rams finished plus three and turnovers yesterday. The
offense didn't commit any in the nasty conditions at Soldier Field,
they still didn't community turnovers. I only had one penalty,
so no turnovers, one penalty, and they still didn't cover.
You know, Matthew Stafford quote. It was crazy. It was
back and forth. We didn't play our best on offense.
Our defense dominated the game. Unbelievable to watch. Hell of
a play on fourth down to Caleb to get a
team to overtime. I'm just glad we got the ball
back and that was We can talk about that fourth
down completion from Caleb Williams from he dropped back twenty
five yards, checked it off his back footed Oh by
the way Colcomb had catched it. It gave everyone who
had the Rams a heart attack, even though the Rams
ended up getting and of course cost the Rand game
to win, but not the cover for that ball game.
So you know, Stafford first game all year he didn't
throw a touchdown pass that we did that again. He
led a ninety one yard touchdown drive in the fourth
quarter with the game on the line. We can't give
Stafford too much grief for that. And Devonte Adams didn't play.
It wasn't a factor in the ball didn't have a
catch in the first three Quords too catches for twenty
four yards. But of course, what did the Rams defense do. Well,
you know, they stopped Chicago down to the two yard
line and they forced him into the fourth down conversion
on the final drive, which ended up being completion. I'll
give the Rams credit defensively for what they were able
to do in that ball game. And of course what
do we see from Stafford now? You know back to
back games where he's had to make plays on the
road in difficult environments and able to do it. But
his numbers in Chicago weren't particularly good. He was like, oh,
it's the worst he played all years dropped back success
rate was thirty one point eight percent. His previous low
was forty one point two percent. You know, oh, the
Rams passing game is broken now, No, it's not. They
played in tough environments, you know, in hard weather, so
he'd still obviously has dealing with injuries, you know, and Stafford.
It's certainly you know, the fact that he didn't get
that extra day's worth of rest, maybe that matters. And
of course you going up to Seattle where they led
thirty to fourteen in the fourth quarter earlier this year
and found a way to lose that ball game. Two
great games between the Seahawks and the Rams and Seattle.
We talked about you know, La playing plus three plus
finishing plus three and turnovers. Seattle finished plus three and turnover,
talking about the Rams only committing one penalty, the Seahawks
only committed two penalties for five yards. All right, Now,
that had a lot to do with San Francisco. You know,
Seattle scored forty one points on two eighty one yards
worth of offense. You had to receive Shaheed bringing the
opening kickback. And again we talked about just like that
first play in the Super Bowl where the Broncos have
the safety and the routes on for Seattle. As soon
as Shahid ran that kickback, it felt over right there.
You know, Staffs defense pretty dominant in that contest. They
ran for one hundred and seventy five yards. And when
you don't have to make Sam Donald make plays, we
could run the football and rely on your defense. Seattle
can win games and cover point spreads and win them
by margin. But I'm telling you flat out, I know
it cost me a bet not trusting Sam Donald. All right,
Sam Donald since Week eleven, twenty seventh in the NFL
and QBR okay, you know, his air yards per targets
way down. His accuracy numbers are down. There are certainly
concerns about a QB that has struggled against quality defense
is now in theory playing a quality Rams defense. Of course,
he let this defense up a couple of weeks go.
But we remember the thirty eight to thirty seven overtime
thriller in Week sixteen that allowed Seattle to play this
game at home as opposed to on the road that game.
To say that every break went in the Seahawks favor
isn't strong enough. Every breaky quitting the Seahawks favor down
the stretch of that contest. That's how they were able
to win. And there's a reason here why the Seahawks
not favored by even a field goal in this one,
at least not yet. There's still a lot of respect
for LA in the betting marketplace. If you asked me
where this line is going to land, I think it's
going to land two and a half more than three.
As I'm thinking about it, as I've talked through it.
This lines not a three. It's a two and a half.
There's still a lot of respect out there for LA
as what many people thought was the best team in
the league going into the postseason. All they've done is
win two playoff games, and they don't have the betting
band went because they failed to cover either one of them.
Now they're dogs. Yeah, I think two and a half.
I think it's more likely to go off two and
a half than three, as long as the weather is
in disastrous yep.
Speaker 2: And that's where I'm getting ready to chime in, putting
on my meteorologist's hat for Sunday, which of course is
subject to change. I think in my next life, Teddy,
I'm gonna be a meteorologists people don't get near as
mad about those predictions, but it does.
Speaker 1: Say I'm cheazing.
Speaker 2: I'm like, no matter what you do, it's like they
said I was going to rain today and the sun
is shining. Fifty chance of showers all day in Seattle
forty eight degrees. You mentioned the weather the first time
the Rams play the Panthers, that was a factor. It
wasn't as bad the second time in Carolina. Is still
no cover by the Rams. Sunset five pm in Seattle
on Sunday night, it's gonna be chilly, possibly rainy. Do
you think that that is something we need to consider
when placing a wager on Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 1: So it's not Rams. If it's not Rams weather, you
want to be aware. You know there's one. There's there's
three old weather teams and one warm weather team still standing.
So and La hasn't covered yet in the postseason. So okay,
two and a.
Speaker 3: Half two and a half.
Speaker 2: I know I don't have anything to tease it with.
But if you had a leg to tease the Rams with,
is we're looking at Rams over a touchdown?
Speaker 1: Sure there's there's there's worse bets in that, you know,
I would expect a competitive game, you know.
Speaker 2: So we're not expecting San Fran two point zero. We're
not expecting a dominant Seattle Seahawks performance. We're expecting a
like a knife fight like we saw last night in Chicago,
where it's back and forth, back and forth, and uh,
either team could possibly win it regardless of the point spread.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to think about it before I say
exactly how I think this game is going to go.
I'm very much worried that about the Rams having just
played two physical games and Seattle just had a laugher
and on the road. So so you say, could the
Seahawks run them? Like, yeah, this could run him out.
Of course they could. You know, they're from a physically
fresh standpoint. These teams are in very different positions right now.
Speaker 2: Yeah, Matthew Stafford not one hundred percent. We know that.
Speaker 3: We've heard different we'll call him rumors, right.
Speaker 2: I haven't seen his throwing hand, like you don't see
him wincing in pain right mid game, or at least
I didn't yesterday. But that was a factor as why,
Like the Bears, I think they've been kind of hiding
some of his injuries for a better part of the season.
If you remember when we did the opening line report
way back in August, I asked you, I said, well,
going to be healthy, and by all intents and purposes,
he looks like he's been pretty healthy.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Sure, But then again, older qbs at this stage
of the season, playing in weather, you know, you can
you can have issues. That being said, they've won, you know,
but from a freshness standpoint, Seattle had a week off
and a blowout. Ram did not have a week off.
They went back to back barn burners on the highway,
coming down to the final play so and now traveling
for a third straight week. So from a freshness standpoint,
sex of a big edge is that gonna matter? We'll
find out on Sunday.
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy covers on the opening line and board
every single week here Monday Mornings with Me. Wager Talk
Today is up next Andy Lang and Dan Alexander. So
make sure you guys hang around in about eight minutes, Teddy,
any final thoughts for our audience before we get out
of here.
Speaker 1: Enjoy the games, good luck, Thanks for watching. Hey guys, listen.
Most of I mean we talked about two hundred and
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you have questions, lead in the comments below on YouTube.
We appreach you it so much, and again check out
my homepage, wt dot, buzzbackslash TC. I know last week
wasn't my best. That being said, I haven't given up
and will be just fine in the long term. So
we appreciate you guys. Thanks for watching, and good luck
this week.
Speaker 2: Cheers all right, cheers, good luck this week. We'll see
you guys next Monday morning, same time, same place,