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Speaker 1: I Live.

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Speaker 2: Welcome in to the opening line report. Kelly Stewart here

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putting out early rage bait on Twitter. Uh oh, I'm

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in trouble already. Teddy Covers joining us here. We're gonna

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talk about conference championships and we're gonna give you a

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little national championship. I'll i'll preview as well, Teddy, because

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I gotta put myself in a conundrum. Shocker, I know.

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Let's get in to the conference championships. I want to

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hear what you thought of things yesterday? Right, Like I

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kind of pissed off some Patriots fans because I said

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Drake May was not a good playoff quarterback. Right, the fumbles,

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the interceptions. Now, i'llbeit he looked better than CJ. Stroud

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or Caleb Williams. But good grief, was that some sloppy

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football by the Patriots yesterday, even though the final score

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didn't reflect that.

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Speaker 1: So the weather matters, you know, sometimes the weather mattered

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ninety nine percent of NFL games. The weather doesn't matter.

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It mattered in New England yesterday for sure. Did it

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mattered in both of the Patriots We talked about. Oh,

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let's rip Drake May. Let's rip CJ. Stroud. The conditions

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were difficult for offense in both games yesterday. You know,

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the weather mattered as well in Chicago against the Rams,

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but it's certainly I think the weather was as important

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as any other factor in the Patriots win over the Texans.

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And when we talk about Drake May struggled, he was

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playing against the single best defense in the league in

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crappy conditions. We're not gonna say Drake May can play

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in the playoffs because he hasn't had a brilliant offensive performance.

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And of course, Drake May was not in a situation, Kelly,

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where he had to do anything, because the Patriots defense

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was good enough to dominate both games, two playoff games.

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We was giving up one touchdown that came after a

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May interception on the twenty seven year drive. So it's

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been the Patriots defense that's been able to control the

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flow and all of well, Drake May isn't playing his best,

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doesn't matter. Drake May's done everything New England's needed in

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a pair of double digit victories.

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Speaker 2: Okay, fair enough, I won't rage bait Patriots fans anymore.

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They're already mad at me enough after yesterday. Let's get

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into the late game. Because I got to cash that

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Matthew Stafford underpassing yards. But I was like, great, we're

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going to overtime after he's sitting right at two oh five,

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and I was like, oh boy, buckle up. That was

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nice because I did expect Matthew Stafford once again on

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the road to struggle offensively. I was not impressed with

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the Rams whatsoever, but the Bears made enough mistakes to

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keep the Rams in that one. Yes, Caleb Williams had

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some Joe Montana esque plays, but that was about it.

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Breakdown kind of what you saw from both of those

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teams yesterday and what the Rams are kind of lacking

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right now this late in the playoffs. I just feel

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like their defense stepped up enough yesterday get them to win.

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But Matthew Stafford, outside of a couple of passes, I

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just wasn't impressed with him.

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Speaker 1: So again in the playoffs, we're gonna overreact to everything

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that we see. Matthew Stafford is a Hall of Fame

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quarterback in the midst of an MVP caliber season who

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just went on the road in back to back weeks

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and guided his team to tough road victories and carry

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them in the fourth quarter of these tough road playoff games.

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Matthew Stafford has been freaking brilliant. Now, yesterday was Stafford

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at his absolute best? No, he was not. Were the

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weather conditions a factor and that, of course they were. Again,

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the weather was as big as any other factor in

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both games yesterday. Stafford say, oh, well, he used to

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play in Detroit. You used to play inside of Detroit

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and that was a half a decade ago. All right.

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You put Stafford in the cold when the wind chows

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are below zero, and you're not gonna get grade A

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Matthew Stafford not gonna happen, you know, not like we

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saw great a Gatub Williams or anyone offensively. And of

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course that was the only game all weekend that stayed

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under the total. If you were playing favorites and overs,

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you know much of the chagrin of the book. If

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you're a chalk eating weasel this weekend you did pretty well, obviously,

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because the Rams were the only team that didn't cover

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in the Rams that were the only one that stayed

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under the total. Other was favorite and over Favorite and

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over favorite and over for the first three playoff games

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of the weekend. And I'm sure that's not a great

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result for the house. And when you talk to John

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Murray later today or tomorrow, whenever you talk to him,

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I'm sure he'll express that sentiment you. I'm sure it

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was not a good weekend, a particularly good weekend for

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the book makers. But to say, oh my god, Matthew

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Stafford didn't play the single best game any quarterbacks ever

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played yesterday. No, he didn't, you know, and McVeigh after

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the games, like, my play calling wasn't good, I didn't

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have the offense ready. McVeigh took the plane for not

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the offense not being as efficient as it was. But

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you know, when you punt in ot, you're expecting to lose,

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and that's what the Rams did yesterday. They punted in ot,

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but they still found the way to win, even though

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they did not get the point.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, we could blame my mush of a boyfriend with

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the Rams futures ticket. He said, I think Caleb's due

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for another interception. I said, I was not gonna throw

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a three. Bear's money line was a little painful, and

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that was my own fault, Teddy, I was complaining to

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you before the show.

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Speaker 3: That's where bankroll management comes into play.

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Speaker 2: I had a nice plus four in pocket, and I

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decided to hit the gas pedal on Bear's money line

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and basically split the game. That being said, let's talk

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about another game that I did not hardly watch it all.

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So we're gonna save the best game for last. That

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would be Broncos Bills. But I'm hosting Saturday. I got

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people over for the Broncos game. What a thrilling ending.

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Next game, boom right away Seahawks touchdown bexting. You know,

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I had a couple of Moscow mules, and I said,

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what happened to the Niners because I was inside outside

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grill and doing my thing.

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Speaker 3: That was was that.

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Speaker 2: An epic performance by Seattle, Was that everything went their way?

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Was that the Niners injuries just caught up with Albeit,

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I did not watch anything but snippets of that game

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because it really wasn't one no, So.

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Speaker 1: For the clients and I split this weekend. You know,

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I had one winner with the over in the Broncos

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Bills and one loser stepping in front of the Patriots again,

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which I could smack myself in the head for the one.

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I'm kicking myself about. The one that I was you know, shit,

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it was I mean, I'm right there with Seattle, and

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I don't pull the trigger. I'm like, I, you know,

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I bet against san Fran last week and it cost me,

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and I'm like, I just I didn't get there, and

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I didn't get there really for one reason. That reason

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was Sam Donald. You know, I'm like, I cannot trust

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Sam Donald against a good defense. I cannot trust Sam

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Donald in a game of this magnitude. And Donald was

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a non factor when when you return the opening kick

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for a touchdown, you know, when you run for one

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hundred and seventy yards and when you're playing a team

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let's be on. I mean that was Seattle good, but

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it was san Fran exiling and we talked about it

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on the show last Monday, Kelly. I read a couple

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of quotes from the forty nine ers that these quotes,

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these are we accomplished something quotes, not we're hungry and

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driving quotes. And and I mean literally that game was

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the opening kick on returned for a touchdown, and at

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no point after that did it feel like san Fran

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was going to make a run. You know, they were done.

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They fought the good fight, They got a road playoff victory.

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Another one on the other side of the country wasn't happening.

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You know. That was to me as every bit, if

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not more about the forty nine ers, who, you know again,

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for the injuries they had, for the adversity they faced

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this season. We could do nothing to get San Francisco credit.

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But they were at a steam. You know, they knew it,

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they showed it, and Seattle took care of business in

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a in a you know again, a game that was

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not all that entertaining to watch except the total. You

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had to sweat it till the fourth quarter, and it

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sneaks over in the fourth so one last Seahawks touchdown.

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Speaker 2: Maybe some other people would argue with me, but I

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think the most entertaining game this weekend was Bill's Broncos.

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I had a great time watching that game. As a

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Broncos fan. I had both sides teas, so I didn't

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really care about the final result from a betting perspective,

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But man, was that a that was kind of a

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wild ending. A lot of people, if you had the Bills,

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were complaining about the refs and unfortunately bo Nicks got hurt.

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So we will talk about that when we talk about

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Broncos Patriots. Because I have lots of questions. But you

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mentioned you had the over Teddy, so you had a

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nice rocking chair winner there for your clients.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, it's good to be on the right side

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of some of these. Although we have to talk about

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the three controversial. I mean all three of them were

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extremely controversial. And when the refs literally go, nah, we

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don't want Buffalo to win. Here that's an interception. And

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then oh, here's a past interference call that's dicey, and

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then here's another pass interference call that's trailer. A lot

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of these games played over the weekend. The teams had

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one penalty, two penalties. The refs did a good job

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of swallowing their whistles unless they had to, and in

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that game you had a very contra I mean again,

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I had no play on the side either, and if

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you have both sides teas, it doesn't matter. But that

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interception's got to be reviewed. Okay. You know when I

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watch I watched the first slow Move, I'm like, you know,

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I watch it. You know, I watch a ton of NFL.

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That's all I do every week is watch NFL. And

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I watched the I watched the people. I'm like, I

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don't know what. Wow, that's a really tough call. I

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didn't know. And next thing, you know, I was like, no, no, no,

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it's it's an interception ball going this way. It's like, what,

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you know, you can understand why McDermott was as mad

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as he was after the game. And then the two

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passion interference calls. I mean, I don't think either one

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of them is legit in that situation to call and

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make that call, to say, all right, right, you know,

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I thought there were very tough calls against Buffalo, you know,

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and again, I got no skin in the game. I'm

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not Bill's mafia. I'm not Broncos fan, but you don't

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want refs deciding who goes to the next round. And

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if he tackles him, sure, but the dice he calls,

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the fifty to fifty calls, dude's got to keep his

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playing in his pocket there, So, I mean Bill's and

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then today, you know, with the repercussions with McDermot getting

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fired this morning off of that, that's tough, Bills, mom,

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I mean, that's that's really tough. Now, let's give Dever credit.

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You know, they did what they needed to do. They

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won the game. But the refs gave them the game,

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and that's not appropriate at this data. The refs gave

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them the game. They did.

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Speaker 2: You know, hey, listen, like I said, I was watching,

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there was a thirty people at my house watching, So

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you're you're catching glimpses, you're hearing oohs and odds, you're

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walking in and out, and next thing you know, you're like,

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I'll take it. I guess it's just one of those things,

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saidy as a As a Broncos fan, I have had

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horrific calls go against me. So when calls go my direction,

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I just say, oh, well, but you're right. We never

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want referees being able to influence the games. Unfortunately it

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happens every single week in the NFL.

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Speaker 3: They are humans as well. They do make mistakes.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into these conference championship games, though, because I'm

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go ahead so I.

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Speaker 1: Want I said, if we're gonna talk to national championship

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game tonight, we should do that. I thought we're gonna

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do that at the top, So we'll.

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Speaker 2: Do it right now. We'll do national championship first before

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we get into conference championships. If you guys have a

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question regarding the national Championship please let me know, Teddy.

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I have spent the last two weeks teasing the National

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Championship Indiana down below a field goal minus one and

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a half minus two with a bunch of different NFL.

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It pretty much all worked out for me as a whole.

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I have five six legs six legs teased with the

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Indiana Hoosiers, and yesterday I said, all right, all right,

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I gotta take a little.

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Speaker 3: I got too much liability here on Indiana.

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Speaker 2: Basically to win the game, right, like, obviously I need

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them to win by two, but to essentially just win

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the game, I think I've overexposed myself. I don't love

237
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this game one way or another. So I did take

238
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some Miami plus eight and a half this morning opened

239
00:11:53,039 --> 00:11:54,879
up my eyes logic screen. Lots of seven and a

240
00:11:54,879 --> 00:11:58,000
half's popping up. So people either said, hey, this line

241
00:11:58,039 --> 00:12:01,919
has gotten out of control, or maybe what's going on here?

242
00:12:01,919 --> 00:12:04,360
Are we seeing sharp money at eight and a half

243
00:12:04,519 --> 00:12:06,559
or are we just seeing people finally starting to buy

244
00:12:06,559 --> 00:12:07,360
in on the Hurricanes.

245
00:12:07,799 --> 00:12:10,200
Speaker 1: So this is what we've seen on this line. Okay.

246
00:12:10,519 --> 00:12:13,399
It opened seven and a half, Okay, And we talked

247
00:12:13,440 --> 00:12:15,720
about it and said there's only one way it can

248
00:12:15,759 --> 00:12:17,559
go from here right now, because they didn't take the

249
00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:20,200
seven and a half right away. It wasn't going down,

250
00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:23,200
it was only going up. And I dawdled, you know,

251
00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,679
and then said it moved up at boom eight and

252
00:12:25,720 --> 00:12:28,440
a half. At eight and a half, it stuck, all right,

253
00:12:28,799 --> 00:12:31,799
didn't go any further, whatever public support that was for

254
00:12:31,799 --> 00:12:33,320
any I didn't move the number, and I said, all right,

255
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:35,559
it's gonna come back down. And am I write up

256
00:12:35,559 --> 00:12:37,279
for the class. I even wrote this line's coming the

257
00:12:37,279 --> 00:12:41,600
other way, so be ready when it comes down. And

258
00:12:41,639 --> 00:12:43,919
obviously that's what we've seen. Now we've seen it drive

259
00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:45,879
back down to seven and a half. I would not

260
00:12:46,039 --> 00:12:50,519
be shocked. I mean, if we see some sevens the

261
00:12:50,639 --> 00:12:53,720
Sharps do like Miami in this barga. Again, the look

262
00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,039
headline for this was five five and a half. So

263
00:12:57,039 --> 00:12:59,159
the fact that we're seeing seven and a half, eight

264
00:12:59,279 --> 00:13:02,279
eight and a half tells us the reaction of what

265
00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:04,600
we've seen from Indiana just last game. You know, with

266
00:13:04,679 --> 00:13:09,000
Indiana obviously, you know, with two blowout victories here in

267
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:10,840
the playoffs, when we talk about every team gets tested,

268
00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:13,200
every team gets tested, you know, that's something I remember.

269
00:13:13,240 --> 00:13:16,039
I always talked about in the NBA tournament, and then

270
00:13:16,080 --> 00:13:17,600
all of a sudden you get a team like Yukon

271
00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,000
that goes six games and beats it all six by

272
00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:23,440
double digit margins. You go, well, everyone gets tested most

273
00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:28,159
of the time. You know. Indiana certainly played like a

274
00:13:28,240 --> 00:13:33,679
team that is on a mission, you know. And that

275
00:13:33,799 --> 00:13:37,639
being said, this is certainly a point spread that is

276
00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:40,480
a little bit out of whack with a what we

277
00:13:40,519 --> 00:13:43,120
seen for thecwusers all season. Be Miami hasn't been a

278
00:13:43,120 --> 00:13:45,440
dog this big all year, you know. I mean they

279
00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:47,639
haven't lost a game this big all year. You know.

280
00:13:47,679 --> 00:13:51,000
The Hurricanes two losses by a field goal and ot

281
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,360
and by six, So it's not like they've been blown

282
00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:57,320
off the field by anyone. So in terms of what's

283
00:13:57,320 --> 00:13:59,639
going to happen today, we've already seen under money come in.

284
00:13:59,679 --> 00:14:01,360
This was it's forty eight and a half at the Open.

285
00:14:01,639 --> 00:14:04,399
Now I'm seeing forty seven slash forty seven and a half.

286
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,240
I'm not convinced we're going to see any more under money.

287
00:14:07,399 --> 00:14:09,960
We would, but I think forty seven is about as

288
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:13,399
low as it's going to go. From a side standpoint. Again,

289
00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:17,000
we're seeing the money coming right now. For Miami. You know,

290
00:14:17,000 --> 00:14:19,200
I'm seeing seven and a half even money here in

291
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,559
Las Vegas. I'm seeing seven and a half at plus

292
00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,320
money in the global market. So we're definitely seeing some

293
00:14:25,879 --> 00:14:29,840
wise guys support for the Miami Hurricanes as we speak.

294
00:14:30,840 --> 00:14:32,840
That said, you know, we expected the wise guys to

295
00:14:32,840 --> 00:14:36,240
be on Miami because the number is higher than it

296
00:14:36,279 --> 00:14:39,120
was supposed to be just a week ago. That said,

297
00:14:39,159 --> 00:14:41,360
I'm not convinced that it's going to go down to seven.

298
00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,879
We could. We've seen some crazy line moves the last

299
00:14:43,879 --> 00:14:47,399
hour or two before kickoff in national titles games. You know,

300
00:14:47,639 --> 00:14:50,799
I remember a good handful of them. We're you know,

301
00:14:50,879 --> 00:14:53,320
I remember USC Oklahoma where USC is laying three and

302
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:54,799
then all of a sudden its pick them. You know.

303
00:14:54,960 --> 00:14:58,000
So this line could move back down to seven, it

304
00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:01,480
could even go below, but sometimes you do see a

305
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:03,399
ground slow support. I'm not convinced that's going to be

306
00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:06,120
the case today. Seven and a half feels to me

307
00:15:06,279 --> 00:15:07,440
like where it's going to go off at. If it

308
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:10,320
goes off anywhere else, maybe seven and eight in this

309
00:15:10,399 --> 00:15:16,279
base opinion, at least in the books that cater to Teddy.

310
00:15:16,320 --> 00:15:18,759
Speaker 2: We've got some questions in the chat regarding this game,

311
00:15:19,600 --> 00:15:22,840
one of our wager talking insiders has Indy Ada minus

312
00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,960
five and a half. Now, the ten and a halfs

313
00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:27,159
are long gone. That would have been a nice middle position.

314
00:15:27,279 --> 00:15:30,279
But as it currently stands, if you get eight or

315
00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:34,679
eight and a half, how big of a gap are

316
00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,279
you looking to middle games?

317
00:15:36,360 --> 00:15:36,480
Speaker 1: Right?

318
00:15:36,519 --> 00:15:39,080
Speaker 2: I know guys that lay seven all day and take

319
00:15:39,159 --> 00:15:40,639
seven and a half all day. That's what they do

320
00:15:40,720 --> 00:15:42,879
three and a half seven, especially in the NFL. Right,

321
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,960
But in terms of this National Championship, if you can

322
00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:48,799
still get a three point middle, let's say that for

323
00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,600
some reason he has a local that's still hanging an.

324
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 3: Eight and a half.

325
00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:53,840
Speaker 2: If you can get a three point middle on this game,

326
00:15:54,159 --> 00:15:56,960
do you think that is worth taking? Obviously I did

327
00:15:57,080 --> 00:16:00,159
because of the teaser side of things, hoping to get

328
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,879
a little greedy. Maybe Indiana wins by you know, two, three, four, five, six,

329
00:16:04,080 --> 00:16:07,360
seven or eight. That's a pretty sizable middle there.

330
00:16:07,919 --> 00:16:09,360
Speaker 3: Three points two.

331
00:16:09,159 --> 00:16:11,000
Speaker 2: Points even now with it being seven and a half,

332
00:16:11,039 --> 00:16:13,120
I'm not sure I'd be trying to throw that needle.

333
00:16:14,320 --> 00:16:17,080
Speaker 1: So I'm not a middler, all right. If you're a

334
00:16:17,159 --> 00:16:20,720
high volume player and you're consistently able to get reduced

335
00:16:20,799 --> 00:16:24,720
juice bets down. You can absolutely play a middling game,

336
00:16:25,639 --> 00:16:29,240
but that takes being at the screen, and you know

337
00:16:29,279 --> 00:16:30,840
it's not something you want to do one. It's something

338
00:16:30,919 --> 00:16:32,399
you want to do again and again and again. It's

339
00:16:32,399 --> 00:16:34,759
something that you're gonna do every single day. That's not

340
00:16:34,799 --> 00:16:36,679
how I bet, That's not how I handicap. That's not

341
00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:42,519
my amo. Okay, So the best advice I ever got

342
00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:45,759
from middling was from my old departed friend Dave Olinski said,

343
00:16:45,759 --> 00:16:49,000
real simple, you're thinking about middling a game, all right,

344
00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,879
start with the first bet you have, right, the bet

345
00:16:54,879 --> 00:16:57,279
you already have down. He's like, do you still like

346
00:16:57,320 --> 00:17:01,440
that bet? If you still like that bet, then you

347
00:17:01,480 --> 00:17:05,839
hold it. If you no longer like that bet, then

348
00:17:05,880 --> 00:17:08,359
you look for ways to get off it. So the

349
00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:11,720
whole handicap comes with that very for first bet you

350
00:17:11,759 --> 00:17:14,039
make the first part of the middle do you like

351
00:17:14,079 --> 00:17:15,920
Indiana minus five and a half or do you not

352
00:17:16,039 --> 00:17:18,160
like that bet anymore? If you like Indiana minus five

353
00:17:18,200 --> 00:17:19,759
and a half, you hold it, don't worry about middle it.

354
00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:23,559
If you don't like the bet anymore, you say, yeah,

355
00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,240
I'm reading the tea leaves and I'd rather have Miami

356
00:17:26,240 --> 00:17:29,400
plus and Indiana minus. Right. Now, that's when you look

357
00:17:29,759 --> 00:17:32,200
to get off that bet, and you can obviously do

358
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:35,200
it with a polytic expectation scenario if you can catch

359
00:17:35,240 --> 00:17:37,319
plus eight and a half. But if you're looking in

360
00:17:37,359 --> 00:17:40,279
the middle around a key number again, you can profitably

361
00:17:40,279 --> 00:17:41,920
middle that reduce jukee six and a half, seven and

362
00:17:41,920 --> 00:17:44,480
a half. You know, I mean, it's a lot, but

363
00:17:44,519 --> 00:17:46,839
you it's not something that's gonna happen once. You have

364
00:17:46,880 --> 00:17:49,000
to do it over and over and over again. And

365
00:17:49,039 --> 00:17:51,000
if you win, you know, one out of ten, you're

366
00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,000
doing fine, and then theory're supposed to win more than that.

367
00:17:54,079 --> 00:18:01,640
So but it's not something that I've being that type

368
00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:05,160
of a better a middler per se. It's difficult, man,

369
00:18:05,200 --> 00:18:07,079
it really is. It's it's a it's a it's a

370
00:18:07,160 --> 00:18:09,519
it's a hard way to make an easy living. But

371
00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:12,359
in terms of what do I do with my Indiana minus,

372
00:18:12,559 --> 00:18:14,279
you like Indiana minus five and a half, you don't

373
00:18:14,319 --> 00:18:16,799
do a damn thing. You hold it, maybe in the

374
00:18:16,839 --> 00:18:19,480
middle of it, look for something in game. But if

375
00:18:19,519 --> 00:18:20,880
you've got an itche and you're like, yeah, I don't

376
00:18:20,920 --> 00:18:22,680
know if I love this bet anymore, you look for

377
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:25,680
the best number you can find on Miami and you

378
00:18:25,799 --> 00:18:28,200
better or you take some Miami miney line. That's the

379
00:18:28,200 --> 00:18:32,119
other option that and that'll make you have to risk

380
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,200
less on the second side of the leg than you

381
00:18:35,200 --> 00:18:36,559
would if you're laying minus one ten.

382
00:18:37,319 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's where I'm at. Teddy is debating on how

383
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,279
much I want to have on Miami. I bet a

384
00:18:42,279 --> 00:18:45,039
couple of dimes yesterday. Now I'm seven and a half

385
00:18:45,039 --> 00:18:47,319
across the board as I was just looking, So I

386
00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,319
may just say, all right, I got a little bit

387
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:50,480
off of Indiana.

388
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,079
Speaker 3: Let's let's gamble and see how this National Championship goes.

389
00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:58,400
Speaker 2: Any other advice for anyone betting the National Championship tonight?

390
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,240
Speaker 1: So as we to this point of the season, we

391
00:19:01,319 --> 00:19:04,640
have to there's a couple disclaimers we got to give. Okay, First,

392
00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,680
there ain't no bad points spreads this time of year,

393
00:19:06,799 --> 00:19:08,759
all right, And I say, oh, this is not a

394
00:19:08,759 --> 00:19:10,160
bad Oh, this lot of the books don't know what

395
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:13,039
they're doing. Oh, these guys are idiots. That ain't the case.

396
00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:16,440
All right. So we're gonna see a fair few games.

397
00:19:16,440 --> 00:19:18,559
And it may not be this game, but certainly yesterday

398
00:19:19,519 --> 00:19:22,240
and over the course of the weekend You're seeing games

399
00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,559
coming fairly close to the points bread, so be aware

400
00:19:25,880 --> 00:19:29,000
when it comes to a bet sizing, and be the

401
00:19:29,079 --> 00:19:30,880
number of bets you're gonna make. This is not okay,

402
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:33,119
we're gonna go crazy and make five thousand big bets

403
00:19:33,160 --> 00:19:35,240
on this game, you know, or fifty big bets on

404
00:19:35,279 --> 00:19:39,799
this game. You know. It's not positive expectation in that regard.

405
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:41,960
So this is the time of year where you definitely

406
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,240
want to bet with your head, not over it. Like

407
00:19:44,279 --> 00:19:48,000
the slogan goes for problem gaming, and be aware. Okay,

408
00:19:48,039 --> 00:19:50,759
I know there's people that struggle with gaming. This time

409
00:19:50,799 --> 00:19:54,359
of year is particularly rough. If you're blowing through your bankroll,

410
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:57,279
get help now. You know this is not a scenario

411
00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,960
where you want to get You know, the weeks leading

412
00:20:02,039 --> 00:20:04,279
up to and the Super Bowl itself are the most

413
00:20:04,279 --> 00:20:07,799
difficult time for compulsive betters and compulsive gamblers. So be

414
00:20:07,839 --> 00:20:10,400
aware if this is If this gig is too much,

415
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:14,680
walk away and get some help. If you're betting within

416
00:20:14,839 --> 00:20:18,720
reason and you're comfortable with your wagering habits and sizes

417
00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,200
like I am, kel like you are, I believe, then

418
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:23,240
this can be a whole lot of fun.

419
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,200
Speaker 2: No, it definitely can be, but I still think, like

420
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:29,599
I said in the Bears game, I had I had

421
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,279
the plus four, and I thought, man, I think the

422
00:20:31,279 --> 00:20:32,559
Bears are gonna win this game. I think the Bears

423
00:20:32,559 --> 00:20:34,079
are gonna win this game. I'm looking at a little

424
00:20:34,079 --> 00:20:37,079
bit more. I see it go to four again, and

425
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:39,839
I'm like, I'm betting the money line. I'm doing it.

426
00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:41,240
And then I've bet the money line, and then I

427
00:20:41,240 --> 00:20:42,920
looked at another account. I was like, I should have

428
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:44,680
looked here first because it's ten cents better. And then

429
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:46,599
I've got the money line again. So that was my

430
00:20:46,759 --> 00:20:53,319
own fault for not bet sizing correctly. So even I

431
00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:57,440
do make mistakes or do degenerate things from time to time,

432
00:20:57,559 --> 00:21:00,640
Teddy that you know, you wake up one morning you're like,

433
00:21:00,759 --> 00:21:03,319
all right, idiot, way to go. Don't do that again.

434
00:21:03,759 --> 00:21:07,559
So hopefully I will not make those same mistakes going forward.

435
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:09,759
Let's get into these conference championships.

436
00:21:09,839 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 1: Yeah sure, yeah, you know we haven't done the basic

437
00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:15,680
tenets of an opening line report.

438
00:21:15,759 --> 00:21:18,759
Speaker 2: Yes, right, twenty minutes in we got almost two thousand

439
00:21:18,799 --> 00:21:20,400
of you guys watching. If you guys have a question

440
00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:23,480
for Teddy, we're opening it up for these conference championship.

441
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,160
Gas We're gonna go right into the first game, and

442
00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,000
that would be the New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos.

443
00:21:29,079 --> 00:21:31,759
And hey, look right here, Charles says the same question

444
00:21:31,799 --> 00:21:34,480
I have, is this the biggest injury move ever? I

445
00:21:34,599 --> 00:21:37,319
had Nicks or excuse? With Nicks, I had the Broncos favorite.

446
00:21:37,599 --> 00:21:40,960
I did not have the Broncos favored with Bow next Teddy,

447
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:43,920
I text John Murray, my good friend's CT. I said, Broncos.

448
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:48,480
I go Broncos. Pick'em. Broncos plus one is where I'm

449
00:21:48,519 --> 00:21:52,720
thinking this line would have been with bow Nicks. Now,

450
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:56,680
I said, uh, I'm gonna say Broncos plus three two points,

451
00:21:56,680 --> 00:22:00,440
two and a half points with Jared Stidham four four

452
00:22:00,480 --> 00:22:04,200
and a half. And I'm going, what am I missing here?

453
00:22:04,759 --> 00:22:09,640
This seems a little overblown. You mentioned overreactions. Break down

454
00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,160
this one for us. What did you make the line

455
00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:13,519
with bon Nicks? What do you make the line with

456
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,839
Jared's Didham? Where are we looking at for this AFC

457
00:22:17,960 --> 00:22:18,680
Championship game?

458
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:21,920
Speaker 1: So the look headline here, had you know from the

459
00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:24,880
potential hypothetical matchups, had the Denver minus one, there were

460
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,160
pick thems, it was in that range and that's where

461
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:30,039
my par rating one. My parrating for a healthy Denver

462
00:22:30,079 --> 00:22:31,839
and a healthy New England had this game, pick them

463
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,759
or New England minus a half point. I made a

464
00:22:35,799 --> 00:22:37,880
five point I'm sorry, the Denver minus a half point.

465
00:22:38,799 --> 00:22:42,680
I made a five point adjustment for the injury from

466
00:22:43,039 --> 00:22:45,920
from the transition from Bonnick to Jared's Didham. I don't

467
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,480
know if that is a right number. Okay, that's as

468
00:22:48,559 --> 00:22:51,160
guestimate as guestimate can be. And you're sitting there going,

469
00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:54,160
all right, well, let's see one guy has you know,

470
00:22:54,480 --> 00:23:00,680
has played fairly well but not an approbow level, and

471
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:02,519
the other guy hasn't taken a snap in two years,

472
00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,400
you know, one guy's guide to the team to a

473
00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,440
whole bunch of come from behind victories though, and the

474
00:23:07,480 --> 00:23:10,359
other one hasn't. Maybe five points isn't enough. The markets

475
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:13,759
obviously have adjusted more. With that five point adjustment. My

476
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,359
number came New England minus four and a half. The

477
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,119
markets were at five to five and a half last night.

478
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,240
That's basically what I'm seeing today, five to five and

479
00:23:22,279 --> 00:23:23,720
a half. There is still a four and a half

480
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:27,240
out there at the super book here in Vegas, total

481
00:23:27,319 --> 00:23:30,559
sitting forty one slash forty one and a half for

482
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:35,880
New England and Denvers. So to say that anyone knows

483
00:23:36,279 --> 00:23:39,160
what the adjustment should be from Nix to Didham, isn't

484
00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:41,759
it real? Because nobody knows exacting, the bookmakers don't know,

485
00:23:41,759 --> 00:23:43,039
the betters don't know. We don't know what we're gonna

486
00:23:43,039 --> 00:23:46,039
see f Art's did it? We really don't. But we

487
00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:50,359
have a per conceptual framework of how I approach a

488
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,079
team with a veteran starting q with a veteran backup QB,

489
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:58,559
and what has happened in previous instances when qbs have

490
00:23:58,599 --> 00:24:01,440
gotten hurt, like, for example, both Carson Wentz getting hurt

491
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,119
for Philadelphia and then Nick Foles coming in and leading

492
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,880
the Eagles to a Super Bowl title less than a

493
00:24:07,960 --> 00:24:12,160
decade ago. So in fact, and when when Sean Payton

494
00:24:12,920 --> 00:24:15,559
was talking about the injury, he started talking about all

495
00:24:15,559 --> 00:24:20,720
the guys who have been able to have success. You know,

496
00:24:20,839 --> 00:24:23,359
Cheddy Bridgewater going five and oh with the Saints, when

497
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,680
Drew Brees was hurt, Texans going three and oh with

498
00:24:26,759 --> 00:24:31,519
Davis Mills this year. You know his quote. You know,

499
00:24:31,559 --> 00:24:33,440
plant has always got to be to build on the

500
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:35,559
type of skill sets and players you're playing with Are

501
00:24:35,599 --> 00:24:39,359
there certain things boat us differings and Stiddy app sbsolutely,

502
00:24:40,039 --> 00:24:44,319
so it's certainly a scenario for Teddy.

503
00:24:44,319 --> 00:24:48,160
Speaker 2: Can I interject? Of course you mentioned Nick Foles, and

504
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:49,799
Nick Foles had a really funny tweet. If you guys

505
00:24:49,799 --> 00:24:52,160
didn't see it about being able to beat the Patriots.

506
00:24:53,039 --> 00:24:55,480
I'm going to say this as a Broncos fan. I've

507
00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:58,960
seen this team fall flat on their face versus the

508
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:01,359
Seattle Seahawks, and this Super Bowl right started with that

509
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:04,279
fumble right out of the gate with Peyton Manning and

510
00:25:04,319 --> 00:25:07,920
then turn right around and have the same Peyton Manning

511
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,519
who was two years older, who was like a statue

512
00:25:10,559 --> 00:25:12,680
out there. Now I understand that it was still Peyton Manning,

513
00:25:13,319 --> 00:25:17,039
but it was that defense. If we're betting on Denver,

514
00:25:17,599 --> 00:25:21,000
does it really matter. I haven't bet on bow Knicks

515
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:25,119
one time this season. I have only ever bet on

516
00:25:25,160 --> 00:25:28,599
the Denver Bronco defense. Does that make sense? Like, I

517
00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,799
know it sounds interesting to say, but if Jared Sidham's

518
00:25:31,839 --> 00:25:34,640
been in this organization for three years, right, I'm not

519
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:38,000
even gonna talk about the fact that he's practiced with

520
00:25:38,039 --> 00:25:41,960
this team and understands this organization or that he's even

521
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,519
comparable to bon Nicks. But bow Knicks is not without faults.

522
00:25:45,799 --> 00:25:48,160
He turns the ball over, he makes dumb mistakes. We've

523
00:25:48,200 --> 00:25:51,440
seen it because he is a young quarterback. Jared Sidam

524
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,000
is older and has been in this organization just as long.

525
00:25:54,559 --> 00:25:55,119
Does that not?

526
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:57,880
Speaker 3: I mean, I get that people want.

527
00:25:57,759 --> 00:26:00,759
Speaker 2: To see somebody pass the eye test, but I want

528
00:26:00,799 --> 00:26:03,279
somebody who can just manage the game and let your

529
00:26:03,279 --> 00:26:04,759
defense go out there and win it for you. If

530
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:09,359
if Drake May fumbles twice and throws an interception, there

531
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,200
is no doubt in my mind that Denver Bronco will

532
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:12,079
win this football game.

533
00:26:12,599 --> 00:26:14,720
Speaker 1: Sounds to me like you like Denver and you think

534
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:19,160
the Marcus have overreacted to the absence of bone Nicks. Now,

535
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,480
Denver had what thirteen come from behind wins this year.

536
00:26:22,839 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, which is crazy.

537
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: We have to give bon Nicks a little bit of

538
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:26,400
credit for that, don't we.

539
00:26:26,839 --> 00:26:29,920
Speaker 2: Sure, Yeah, listen, I would agree with that, But I

540
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,200
also think that bone Nicks is the reason why they

541
00:26:32,279 --> 00:26:35,519
were behind. Remember that Titans game where we came on

542
00:26:35,559 --> 00:26:37,680
here and I said, Teddy, I feel sick to my summa.

543
00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:39,480
I'm going to take the Denver Broncos week one and

544
00:26:39,559 --> 00:26:42,880
survivor with everybody else. I said, if we get bad

545
00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:44,680
bone Nicks, they could lose this game. And we got

546
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:46,519
bad bon Nicks. I think he had two interceptions in

547
00:26:46,559 --> 00:26:49,480
a fumble and it was just there was Thank god,

548
00:26:49,599 --> 00:26:51,920
the Texans defensive backs couldn't catch the ball and neither

549
00:26:51,960 --> 00:26:55,359
could the Texas or excuse the Titans wide receivers. Remember

550
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,759
cam Ward actually had some great passes and they just

551
00:26:57,799 --> 00:27:01,240
kept getting dropped. I am not some Broncos homer. I

552
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,000
have been against this team when needed, got lucky, gets

553
00:27:05,079 --> 00:27:08,079
that cult with that Colts field goal kick. Speaking of

554
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:12,559
crazy referee calls that go your way. I just if

555
00:27:12,559 --> 00:27:14,599
I'm betting on Denver, I'm betting on the defense. I

556
00:27:14,599 --> 00:27:16,319
don't care who the quarterback is. It could be you

557
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:16,920
for all I care.

558
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:22,079
Speaker 1: So the Broncos defense yesterday or over the weekends. Let's see,

559
00:27:22,079 --> 00:27:25,160
the Bills didn't punt. That's all you need to know.

560
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:29,240
The Bills didn't punt fair enough. You know, the Giants

561
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,200
scored thirty two against them. Okay, it's a Denver defense that,

562
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:35,519
just like the quarterback play has been up and down.

563
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,880
You know, I don't think it's Seattle's defense I don't

564
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:41,039
think it's Houston's defense, and it's kind of shown over

565
00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:44,279
the course of the season that Denver's defense is good,

566
00:27:44,319 --> 00:27:46,519
but perhaps not as elite as some of the elitists

567
00:27:47,039 --> 00:27:50,680
in the league. That being said, can this defense in

568
00:27:50,799 --> 00:27:53,839
theory carry them to victory? Of course they can. You know,

569
00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,000
it's not like the like the defense's hopeless or useless.

570
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,599
Jared Stidham is someone worth talking about, all right, career

571
00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:03,599
numbers for Jared's did him one hundred and seventeen completions

572
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,000
one hundred and ninety seven attempts, So he's in his career,

573
00:28:06,319 --> 00:28:08,359
he's got one hundred ninety seven attempts. He's got came

574
00:28:08,400 --> 00:28:12,319
out of Auburn in what twenty eighteen, fourteen hundred years.

575
00:28:11,759 --> 00:28:14,200
Speaker 2: Better at Baylor that I remember. He was a better

576
00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:16,319
Baylor quarterback than he was an Auburn quarterback.

577
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:19,599
Speaker 1: How about that seven point two yards per past them?

578
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,920
Nineteen sex on those one hundred and ninety seven attempts,

579
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,359
So he's been once every ten times he dropped back

580
00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:29,400
to pass, he's hit the turf. What are those numbers?

581
00:28:29,799 --> 00:28:30,240
They're not.

582
00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:33,799
Speaker 2: And those are all Patriots numbers. Correct?

583
00:28:33,839 --> 00:28:36,160
Speaker 1: When he played for the most lad the last time

584
00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:39,680
he started. He started week seventeen and eighteen four Sean

585
00:28:39,759 --> 00:28:46,319
Payton in twenty twenty three, after Russell Wilson was oh, yes, yes,

586
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:51,359
here's the Peyton quote. I know how he was coaching

587
00:28:51,359 --> 00:28:53,720
in New England. I know exactly how he was coaching

588
00:28:53,799 --> 00:28:57,200
New England, and then I know how Josh McDaniels felt

589
00:28:57,200 --> 00:28:59,440
about him. But ultimately, in our three years here, so

590
00:28:59,519 --> 00:29:01,519
our three year watching him day in and day out,

591
00:29:01,799 --> 00:29:05,319
he will be ready to go. Sam Allinger is going

592
00:29:05,359 --> 00:29:09,599
to be the backup. They just signed Ben Jinucci to

593
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:13,720
the practice squad, so they have a third string emergency QB.

594
00:29:13,920 --> 00:29:17,519
More Peyton quotes quote. Splitting reps on offense just doesn't

595
00:29:17,559 --> 00:29:20,720
happen in a work week. The reps are limited and

596
00:29:20,759 --> 00:29:24,359
the starter wants them. But one of Stitty's strengths is

597
00:29:24,400 --> 00:29:28,240
his mental aptitude and his progressions and understanding plays. There

598
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,400
will be practices. I'm looking at DC vance Joseph getting

599
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,319
pissed off because Stitty's making our defense look bad. He's

600
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:41,119
very accurate, He's got a lot to his ball. So

601
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,559
certainly there appears to be a level of confidence for

602
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:51,079
the Broncos staff with their backup QB. But of course,

603
00:29:51,119 --> 00:29:54,119
again there were plus four and turnovers last week. And

604
00:29:54,119 --> 00:29:57,400
when you're plus four and turnovers and barely survive in overtime,

605
00:29:58,079 --> 00:30:01,279
it speaks to some goods. And again, it's not like

606
00:30:01,319 --> 00:30:03,480
the Broncos defense in a problem area all year long.

607
00:30:04,039 --> 00:30:06,839
But they've as much as any team in the league.

608
00:30:06,839 --> 00:30:09,480
Denver's played complimentary football. The games the Dames where the

609
00:30:09,519 --> 00:30:11,680
offense hasn't played well, the defense has stepped up. The

610
00:30:11,759 --> 00:30:14,079
games where the defense hadn't stepped well played well, the

611
00:30:14,119 --> 00:30:16,839
offense has been able to step up. But you know,

612
00:30:16,839 --> 00:30:19,640
it's a Patriots team. For all the success they had.

613
00:30:19,799 --> 00:30:23,519
You know, they got thirteen first downs yesterday, you know,

614
00:30:23,839 --> 00:30:25,759
three or fourteen on third downs, two dred and forty

615
00:30:25,759 --> 00:30:28,960
eight total yards three point nine yards per play. Those

616
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:30,640
are not let's go to the Super Bowl type of

617
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,559
offensive numbers. And yet the defense has played so well

618
00:30:33,559 --> 00:30:36,240
it was good enough to win by a double digit margin.

619
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:38,640
And there were lots of quotes after the game, Kelly

620
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:43,359
talking about how this defense felt disrespected because the Texans

621
00:30:43,359 --> 00:30:45,319
were the team that were getting all the hype. And

622
00:30:45,400 --> 00:30:48,960
of course, one of the things I remember when the

623
00:30:49,000 --> 00:30:51,599
Colts won their Super Bowl, whether the Peyton Manning's only

624
00:30:51,599 --> 00:30:54,079
Super Bowl title in Indy, and they had these dismal

625
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:57,160
defensive numbers and they got the defense got healthy right

626
00:30:57,240 --> 00:31:01,000
in the postseason New England. It started the last couple

627
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:03,880
of weeks in the playoffs. They've gotten back from injury.

628
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:08,839
Milton Williams, Chris Tonga, Robert Spillane, Harold Landry, all these

629
00:31:08,839 --> 00:31:10,559
guys sat out time at the end of the regular

630
00:31:10,559 --> 00:31:14,759
season and they've all been contributors here in the postseason.

631
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:17,359
And this defense has been dominant into playoff games. Now,

632
00:31:17,359 --> 00:31:19,079
the weather had a piece of the equation, and they

633
00:31:19,079 --> 00:31:22,319
played two warm weather teams interns, the Chargers and the Texans.

634
00:31:22,599 --> 00:31:26,119
Now they're leaving the friendly confines of Foxborough and they're

635
00:31:26,119 --> 00:31:28,480
playing a cold weather team in a cold weather environment.

636
00:31:28,519 --> 00:31:32,559
They're not gonna have that edge. But clearly we've seen

637
00:31:32,640 --> 00:31:35,720
this defense really step up. You know, Drake may prop

638
00:31:35,759 --> 00:31:38,640
star defense. They played great. It was tough battle the elements.

639
00:31:38,720 --> 00:31:40,200
We knew they were gonna be a good defense, but

640
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:45,079
our defense helped us all night. So, I mean, you know,

641
00:31:45,119 --> 00:31:49,160
when you're dominating the other team in the Patriots were

642
00:31:49,160 --> 00:31:52,440
able to shut down the Texans running game completely if

643
00:31:52,440 --> 00:31:55,039
they can do that to Denver. They're gonna win this game.

644
00:31:55,079 --> 00:31:58,720
They're gonna cover this point spread, but well, they're gonna

645
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,640
win this game. They may not cover the foot, but

646
00:32:00,799 --> 00:32:03,640
if they could shut down the Broncos running, because never

647
00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:07,440
has to run the football in this contest. That said,

648
00:32:08,319 --> 00:32:10,680
we look at the two offensive lines in New England

649
00:32:10,759 --> 00:32:13,599
just beaten up on you know, Chargers off the line

650
00:32:13,640 --> 00:32:16,279
had some problems, the Texans off the line had some problems.

651
00:32:16,799 --> 00:32:19,279
The Broncos off the line arguably as good as any

652
00:32:19,319 --> 00:32:22,799
in football. Different type of challenge for New England stopping

653
00:32:22,799 --> 00:32:25,119
the run this week compared to last week. Drake may

654
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:28,400
is gonna have to play better in those two games

655
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:30,880
at home. But let's see what the weather is. The

656
00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:32,599
weather could be a whole lot better this week than

657
00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:35,440
last week. For the Let's not forget all the Patriots

658
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:39,640
stats here in the postseason have to be weather you know,

659
00:32:39,799 --> 00:32:41,200
at least as you're thinking about them, and have to

660
00:32:41,200 --> 00:32:43,680
be weather adjusted, because it's been lousy weather for both

661
00:32:44,319 --> 00:32:47,759
Patriots games, and that's helped them or hurt their opponents

662
00:32:47,759 --> 00:32:49,240
more than it's hurt them, even though it's hurt their

663
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:50,839
their their own offensive visions.

664
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:52,759
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy. I know we can talk about this

665
00:32:52,839 --> 00:32:54,839
game forever, but I do have two things I wanted

666
00:32:54,839 --> 00:32:56,839
to bring up. And I know he's ever gonna run

667
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,200
fast wesself another game to go over, And I'm gonna

668
00:32:59,200 --> 00:33:01,279
see this question from more d'angelon bet on it. But

669
00:33:01,319 --> 00:33:05,319
I do wonder how you handicap something like this because

670
00:33:05,359 --> 00:33:08,319
there is no way to quantify the injured player theory.

671
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:11,480
Marco talks about all the time, your star quarterback bo

672
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,880
Nix gets hurt on the last play of the game

673
00:33:14,119 --> 00:33:18,119
in some weird, fluky incident, and now you've got the

674
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:21,319
next guy up, Jared Sidham, how does the rest of

675
00:33:21,359 --> 00:33:23,920
the team respond. I mean, the reason why this is

676
00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:26,319
a theory and why people use it as a handicap

677
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:29,920
is because it does seem that the team rallies around

678
00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:34,240
guy number two. The problem is the math. Guys are

679
00:33:34,240 --> 00:33:38,160
gonna say, cool, what does that do for the point spread?

680
00:33:38,559 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: Well, I mean again, in this instance, right now, and

681
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:44,839
by the way, this is worth talking. In fact, let's

682
00:33:44,880 --> 00:33:49,240
not talk about it. Get your get your little siren out, damn,

683
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:52,839
get the get the theme going, because alive the market

684
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:57,720
right now? All right, again, it was Patriots minus four

685
00:33:57,720 --> 00:33:59,960
and a half was my powering number. The markets worth

686
00:34:00,039 --> 00:34:02,200
five and a half last night. This morning they were

687
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:04,839
at five and a half. Boom right now circa back

688
00:34:04,880 --> 00:34:07,240
down to four and a half. Global markets down to

689
00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:10,400
four and a half. There's still plenty of five and

690
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:13,239
a half out there for New England, but if you

691
00:34:13,400 --> 00:34:16,280
like Denver, grab the plus five and a half. Now

692
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:19,559
we are seeing movement in the other direction, even with

693
00:34:20,119 --> 00:34:25,320
the loss of bo Nix and the ascension of Jared

694
00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:28,400
Stidham to the starting QB position for the Broncos. So

695
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:33,000
we are seeing Denver money right now. And again I

696
00:34:33,039 --> 00:34:35,639
made a five point adjustment between the two qbs and

697
00:34:35,679 --> 00:34:38,400
I came up with New England minus four and a half.

698
00:34:38,639 --> 00:34:41,840
The markets are moving that direction right now. The five

699
00:34:41,880 --> 00:34:44,039
and a half may not be there an hour or

700
00:34:44,079 --> 00:34:46,239
two from now, so I would bet them sooner rather

701
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:51,119
than later. If you like the Denver side.

702
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,239
Speaker 3: Sweet, Okay, all right, we're in.

703
00:34:52,599 --> 00:34:54,079
Speaker 2: We're in with the five and a half. Teddy. That's

704
00:34:54,119 --> 00:34:55,559
all I needed to hear. This is why I love

705
00:34:55,599 --> 00:34:57,320
doing the show. This is basically what I do all show.

706
00:34:57,360 --> 00:35:00,559
Longest ive bet with Teddy, last question, Teddy, only because

707
00:35:00,599 --> 00:35:03,119
I know it's gonna get the comment section upset and

708
00:35:03,119 --> 00:35:04,440
we're gonna rage baits some people.

709
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,039
Speaker 3: Chris Thurston text me last night.

710
00:35:06,920 --> 00:35:09,239
Speaker 2: But cal, why don't you say, like every other sharp

711
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:12,960
guy on X about how the Patriots haven't played anybody?

712
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,199
And I go, the fact that they haven't played anybody

713
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:19,519
is just what it is their strength of schedule. They

714
00:35:19,559 --> 00:35:21,920
have to play the schedule that's in front of them. Correct,

715
00:35:22,159 --> 00:35:24,039
But Teddy, what are your thoughts on that strength of

716
00:35:24,079 --> 00:35:26,880
schedule argument? This is going to be one of the

717
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:30,199
best teams that the Patriots faced all season long, so.

718
00:35:30,559 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: I agree with that assessment. One of the reasons I've

719
00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,000
lost money betting against New England here in the postseason

720
00:35:35,039 --> 00:35:37,559
is because of the strength of schedule issues for the Patriots,

721
00:35:37,559 --> 00:35:40,199
and it's cost me money. So do you flip here?

722
00:35:40,519 --> 00:35:44,519
Maybe I can tell you this. You know, I'm not

723
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,239
laying this price with New England after I've already faded

724
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:50,159
them twice. I mean, they're betting against the Patriots Or'm

725
00:35:50,159 --> 00:35:56,159
not going to play the game. But certainly now, I'm sorry, call,

726
00:35:56,199 --> 00:35:58,039
I've got a law. What's exactly the question that I'm

727
00:35:58,039 --> 00:35:58,800
supposed to be answering?

728
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 2: No, I just the argument is the Patriots haven't played anybody, right,

729
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,320
it doesn't matter. They keep winning these games, and they

730
00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:10,960
keep winning the by margin aka covering the spread. They

731
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:13,920
haven't played anybody, but they single handedly took care of

732
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:16,719
Justin Herbert and the Chargers. Maybe whether it was a

733
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:21,119
factor c J. Stroud five interceptions, Kudos to that Patriots defense.

734
00:36:21,639 --> 00:36:24,440
I just when I hear these arguments over and over

735
00:36:24,440 --> 00:36:27,679
and over again, and then the eye test is it

736
00:36:27,719 --> 00:36:30,639
doesn't matter. The Patriots are still winning by margin. What

737
00:36:30,639 --> 00:36:32,800
do we do with that type of information, because you

738
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:35,400
know there are going to be handicappers that press that

739
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,639
all are all week long saying guess what, the Patriots

740
00:36:38,679 --> 00:36:41,920
don't deserve to be X when the reality is maybe

741
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,360
they do. You just mentioned earlier in the National Championship.

742
00:36:44,679 --> 00:36:47,880
The bookmakers are not given out freebies at this time

743
00:36:47,880 --> 00:36:49,760
of the year. They're not saying, oh yeah, here I

744
00:36:49,800 --> 00:36:53,440
have this crazy number because we're wrong in the market.

745
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,519
Speaker 1: The Patriots went to Buffalo and beat Buffalo. They went

746
00:36:56,559 --> 00:36:59,159
to Baltimore and beat Baltimore on the road. You know,

747
00:37:00,039 --> 00:37:02,320
if they didn't beat anyone all season and here in

748
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:06,639
the postseason, so I don't have New England. The power

749
00:37:06,679 --> 00:37:08,920
Raider as high as the Rams or the Seahawks. Nobody does,

750
00:37:08,960 --> 00:37:10,840
I don't think. And when we look at the AFCNFC Lions,

751
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,280
the Rams and the Seahawks are both going to be

752
00:37:13,320 --> 00:37:16,719
favored over whoever comes out of the AFC. All right,

753
00:37:17,400 --> 00:37:21,800
But at this stage, after winning a pair of playoff games,

754
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,760
after showing in the regular season, they can go on

755
00:37:23,760 --> 00:37:26,519
the road and beat quality teams. The strength of schedule

756
00:37:26,599 --> 00:37:29,320
argument is comme, it's gone. You know, strength of schedule

757
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:31,719
stuff works in the wildcard round, it doesn't work after that.

758
00:37:32,119 --> 00:37:34,280
After that you have teams in their own momentum and

759
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:37,239
for you and you nailed that in terms of you

760
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:39,760
only play who's on your schedule, that's all you get.

761
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:41,599
You don't get to say, oh, well this opponent's two

762
00:37:41,599 --> 00:37:43,159
week let me switch it out and play someone tougher.

763
00:37:44,039 --> 00:37:45,079
You don't get that choice.

764
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,639
Speaker 2: All right. I'm not a meteorologist and I do not

765
00:37:48,639 --> 00:37:50,360
play one here on wager Talk TV. But it looks

766
00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,119
like it's going to be forty eight degrees in sunny

767
00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:56,440
on Denver in Denver over the weekend, So take that

768
00:37:56,519 --> 00:37:59,360
for what you will. Teddy covers twenty one hundred people

769
00:37:59,360 --> 00:38:00,840
watching this live shout out to all of you guys,

770
00:38:00,960 --> 00:38:03,840
especially our wager Talk insiders. Make sure you guys give

771
00:38:03,880 --> 00:38:06,039
us that like and hit that subscribe button. We just

772
00:38:06,119 --> 00:38:09,719
hit two hundred and forty thousand subscribers yesterday when Aaron

773
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,320
Epstein was hosting Last Call with Teddy. It was amazing,

774
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:15,000
So thank you to all of you guys. Teddy really

775
00:38:15,079 --> 00:38:17,760
quickly before we get into the NFC Championship game. I

776
00:38:17,800 --> 00:38:20,239
know I was long winded about the other game, because

777
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,760
I was I just wanted to hear your thoughts. Let

778
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:24,159
me know what you got going on at waier talk

779
00:38:24,199 --> 00:38:28,840
dot com. College Basketball NBA National Championship is tonight Conference

780
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:33,400
Championships or this weekend WT dot buzz backslash TC to

781
00:38:33,519 --> 00:38:34,599
get on board with Teddy.

782
00:38:35,239 --> 00:38:37,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, so we're in play for the national title game

783
00:38:37,039 --> 00:38:40,800
tonight and you go to my homepagetut buzz backslash TC. Obviously,

784
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:44,079
Kelly just told you we will be in play on

785
00:38:44,119 --> 00:38:47,880
obviously the conference Championhi games. The football has been pretty good, man,

786
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:49,719
I mean we split out this weekend. I can't. I'm

787
00:38:49,760 --> 00:38:53,480
mad at myself for not playing well, we'll talk about it.

788
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:59,119
For not playing Seattle against San fran I think I

789
00:38:59,159 --> 00:39:01,280
talked about it ready. I'm still mad at myself today.

790
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 2: We can still be mad at ourselves. I'm so mad

791
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:03,320
for betting.

792
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:07,320
Speaker 1: There's money line. I really it was, you know it was.

793
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:10,559
It doesn't matter. It's over and we review mirror it.

794
00:39:10,639 --> 00:39:14,039
But bottom line is we'ren't playing the national title game.

795
00:39:14,079 --> 00:39:17,920
We'll be in play obviously for conferencempionship weekend. I'm passing

796
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,480
on the college hoops slate today. We may well have

797
00:39:20,599 --> 00:39:25,280
NBA up and available later. I didn't have a chance

798
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:26,559
to do it before I came on air with the

799
00:39:26,599 --> 00:39:33,039
eight am Pacific time start to the show. Show post

800
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:35,960
NBA as soon as we're done, so we'll have that up.

801
00:39:36,559 --> 00:39:40,559
I should be available an hour or now, an hour

802
00:39:40,639 --> 00:39:43,239
from now or less. Should have the association.

803
00:39:43,599 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 2: All right, Justin's getting angry at me in the comments section.

804
00:39:46,119 --> 00:39:48,360
Let's get onto the Seahawks Rams game.

805
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:53,960
Speaker 3: Blabbermouth. Sorry, Justin, here you go, let's get into this.

806
00:39:54,039 --> 00:39:56,039
Speaker 2: Sorry, Teddy, I just cared so much more about the

807
00:39:56,079 --> 00:39:58,079
AFC Championship game, and maybe I should care.

808
00:39:57,960 --> 00:39:59,519
Speaker 3: More about this one.

809
00:40:00,199 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 2: We talked about Matthew Stafford and some of his pitfalls

810
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,199
yesterday in the cold weather.

811
00:40:06,199 --> 00:40:07,360
Speaker 3: They're in Chicago.

812
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:11,320
Speaker 2: Now they're going to face a division opponent for the

813
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,000
third time this year.

814
00:40:13,119 --> 00:40:15,360
Speaker 3: Talk to me about the Rams at Seattle.

815
00:40:15,679 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 2: I was surprised to see this one come out a

816
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,239
little shorter than I had expected.

817
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:23,920
Speaker 1: So Seattle my powering number for the game king two

818
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:26,000
and a half. The markets open, there were two and

819
00:40:26,039 --> 00:40:28,840
a halfs and threes last night, forty seven and a

820
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:32,559
half the prevailing total. We're still seeing forty seven and

821
00:40:32,599 --> 00:40:35,039
a half. We're seeing forty sevens. There's forty eight's out

822
00:40:35,039 --> 00:40:36,840
there in the betting markets, so the totals a little bit.

823
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,840
I'm not convinced the markets know which way they're going

824
00:40:39,840 --> 00:40:41,840
to move on the total just yet. And from a

825
00:40:41,880 --> 00:40:44,199
side standpoint two and a half three, two and a

826
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:47,320
half three. It is bouncing as we speak, so it's

827
00:40:47,360 --> 00:40:51,239
not a scenario where you have to rush to grab

828
00:40:51,280 --> 00:40:53,639
one or the other. That said, I don't think it's

829
00:40:53,639 --> 00:40:56,400
going to hurt you to grab if you like Seattle

830
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,199
late two and a half. Now, if you like the Rams,

831
00:40:59,199 --> 00:41:02,000
find a plus three. Now the line's gonna settle, likely

832
00:41:02,039 --> 00:41:03,679
at one of the two, and it doesn't feel like

833
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:04,960
it's gonna be two and a half with juice or

834
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:08,199
three at plus money, but where it settles, it's not

835
00:41:08,239 --> 00:41:09,800
gonna hurt you to lock if you if you want

836
00:41:09,800 --> 00:41:11,239
the two and a half, grab the two and a

837
00:41:11,280 --> 00:41:14,039
half with the favorite. If you want the dog, find

838
00:41:14,039 --> 00:41:16,840
a plus three with the dog. These are good scenarios

839
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:20,559
for betters, not bad scenarios. You know, when there's line variants,

840
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:22,760
it allows you to shop for the best of the number.

841
00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:24,679
And that's one of the things I harp on on

842
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:29,000
this show is making sure that you shop for the

843
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:31,039
best of the number and get the free half points,

844
00:41:31,199 --> 00:41:33,000
not the ones that you have to pay for it.

845
00:41:33,079 --> 00:41:35,000
But you know, again my numbers two and a half,

846
00:41:35,039 --> 00:41:37,840
the markets are two and three quarters right now forty

847
00:41:37,880 --> 00:41:40,920
seven and a half slash forty seven revealing total as

848
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,480
we speak. And we're not seeing a whole lot of

849
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:48,960
movement on this game, like we just saw the money

850
00:41:49,000 --> 00:41:54,519
coming in for Denver a few minutes ago. Obviously, if

851
00:41:54,679 --> 00:41:59,519
the Patriots, what do we have we have? Patriots played

852
00:42:00,599 --> 00:42:03,840
Seattle and Denver played Seattle. So if Seattle wins, you

853
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,480
get a for the Super Bowl rematch, doesn't matter. You know,

854
00:42:06,639 --> 00:42:08,559
they had the back to back years. If if the

855
00:42:08,639 --> 00:42:11,599
Rams win, will be a different matchup. But if Seattle wins,

856
00:42:11,679 --> 00:42:15,159
it's going to be a rematch, regardless relatively recent rematch,

857
00:42:15,159 --> 00:42:16,559
you know. I'm talking about the last decade or so,

858
00:42:17,320 --> 00:42:20,199
and that that Bronco Seahawk super Bowl. Always one of

859
00:42:20,280 --> 00:42:23,639
my favorites, you know, but not entertaining in the slightest.

860
00:42:24,039 --> 00:42:25,519
There's nothing like the first play of the game and

861
00:42:25,519 --> 00:42:26,800
you get a safe and you're like, yeah, this game

862
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:27,840
feels over already.

863
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:30,840
Speaker 2: It was over already, Teddy. I was at the d

864
00:42:31,119 --> 00:42:33,760
with Derek Stevens and I was like, get me out

865
00:42:33,760 --> 00:42:34,079
of here.

866
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:35,079
Speaker 3: I hate this team.

867
00:42:35,119 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 2: So I think that was the day I.

868
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 3: Lost my actual fandom for the Denver Broncos. I was like,

869
00:42:40,519 --> 00:42:41,159
hate Manning.

870
00:42:41,559 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 2: See you later hit the road, you old man.

871
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:48,760
Speaker 1: No see. I thoroughly enjoyed that game because I had sorts.

872
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:49,280
Speaker 3: Were on Seattle.

873
00:42:49,679 --> 00:42:52,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I knew that and I had I remember

874
00:42:52,599 --> 00:42:54,840
Phil Ivy was in the nightclub and he goes, Kelly,

875
00:42:54,880 --> 00:42:56,199
you have to bet Seattle, and I was like, I'm

876
00:42:56,199 --> 00:43:01,320
not betting Seattle. Phil Seattle will of the play two.

877
00:43:01,199 --> 00:43:03,079
Speaker 1: And a half, last three the number right now forty

878
00:43:03,119 --> 00:43:04,920
seven and a half. Well for the Rams, Okay, why

879
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:07,000
is the number? Did you say you say this in

880
00:43:07,039 --> 00:43:08,679
the number came shorter than you thought we were gonna

881
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:10,000
Kelly or Hires.

882
00:43:10,159 --> 00:43:11,639
Speaker 2: We thought we'd see three and a half. I thought

883
00:43:11,639 --> 00:43:15,760
we'd see four. I really thought based on recency bias.

884
00:43:16,079 --> 00:43:17,440
And then when you said you made the game two

885
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,840
and a half, I guess. I guess I was weighing

886
00:43:20,840 --> 00:43:23,880
a little too heavily on the final results of some

887
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:27,039
of these Seattle blowouts lately, and I haven't been that

888
00:43:27,159 --> 00:43:28,239
high on the Rams.

889
00:43:29,039 --> 00:43:31,039
Speaker 1: So the Rams finished plus three and turnovers yesterday. The

890
00:43:31,039 --> 00:43:34,800
offense didn't commit any in the nasty conditions at Soldier Field,

891
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,119
they still didn't community turnovers. I only had one penalty,

892
00:43:37,519 --> 00:43:40,639
so no turnovers, one penalty, and they still didn't cover.

893
00:43:41,519 --> 00:43:43,840
You know, Matthew Stafford quote. It was crazy. It was

894
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:45,639
back and forth. We didn't play our best on offense.

895
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:48,400
Our defense dominated the game. Unbelievable to watch. Hell of

896
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:49,840
a play on fourth down to Caleb to get a

897
00:43:49,880 --> 00:43:53,119
team to overtime. I'm just glad we got the ball

898
00:43:53,199 --> 00:43:55,320
back and that was We can talk about that fourth

899
00:43:55,320 --> 00:43:59,480
down completion from Caleb Williams from he dropped back twenty

900
00:43:59,480 --> 00:44:01,880
five yards, checked it off his back footed Oh by

901
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:04,400
the way Colcomb had catched it. It gave everyone who

902
00:44:04,400 --> 00:44:05,960
had the Rams a heart attack, even though the Rams

903
00:44:06,000 --> 00:44:09,480
ended up getting and of course cost the Rand game

904
00:44:09,519 --> 00:44:12,400
to win, but not the cover for that ball game.

905
00:44:12,480 --> 00:44:16,000
So you know, Stafford first game all year he didn't

906
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:17,559
throw a touchdown pass that we did that again. He

907
00:44:17,639 --> 00:44:19,440
led a ninety one yard touchdown drive in the fourth

908
00:44:19,519 --> 00:44:21,719
quarter with the game on the line. We can't give

909
00:44:21,760 --> 00:44:26,360
Stafford too much grief for that. And Devonte Adams didn't play.

910
00:44:26,559 --> 00:44:28,920
It wasn't a factor in the ball didn't have a

911
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,440
catch in the first three Quords too catches for twenty

912
00:44:31,480 --> 00:44:36,079
four yards. But of course, what did the Rams defense do. Well,

913
00:44:36,280 --> 00:44:38,920
you know, they stopped Chicago down to the two yard

914
00:44:38,920 --> 00:44:41,920
line and they forced him into the fourth down conversion

915
00:44:41,920 --> 00:44:44,840
on the final drive, which ended up being completion. I'll

916
00:44:44,840 --> 00:44:48,880
give the Rams credit defensively for what they were able

917
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:52,159
to do in that ball game. And of course what

918
00:44:52,199 --> 00:44:55,079
do we see from Stafford now? You know back to

919
00:44:55,119 --> 00:44:57,159
back games where he's had to make plays on the

920
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,760
road in difficult environments and able to do it. But

921
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:05,239
his numbers in Chicago weren't particularly good. He was like, oh,

922
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:07,639
it's the worst he played all years dropped back success

923
00:45:07,679 --> 00:45:10,039
rate was thirty one point eight percent. His previous low

924
00:45:10,119 --> 00:45:12,760
was forty one point two percent. You know, oh, the

925
00:45:12,840 --> 00:45:14,880
Rams passing game is broken now, No, it's not. They

926
00:45:14,920 --> 00:45:19,840
played in tough environments, you know, in hard weather, so

927
00:45:20,639 --> 00:45:25,400
he'd still obviously has dealing with injuries, you know, and Stafford.

928
00:45:26,239 --> 00:45:28,039
It's certainly you know, the fact that he didn't get

929
00:45:28,039 --> 00:45:32,119
that extra day's worth of rest, maybe that matters. And

930
00:45:32,239 --> 00:45:33,719
of course you going up to Seattle where they led

931
00:45:33,760 --> 00:45:36,800
thirty to fourteen in the fourth quarter earlier this year

932
00:45:36,880 --> 00:45:39,480
and found a way to lose that ball game. Two

933
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:42,719
great games between the Seahawks and the Rams and Seattle.

934
00:45:42,760 --> 00:45:45,440
We talked about you know, La playing plus three plus

935
00:45:45,559 --> 00:45:49,280
finishing plus three and turnovers. Seattle finished plus three and turnover,

936
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:52,480
talking about the Rams only committing one penalty, the Seahawks

937
00:45:52,639 --> 00:45:55,679
only committed two penalties for five yards. All right, Now,

938
00:45:55,679 --> 00:45:57,719
that had a lot to do with San Francisco. You know,

939
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:01,079
Seattle scored forty one points on two eighty one yards

940
00:46:01,079 --> 00:46:04,119
worth of offense. You had to receive Shaheed bringing the

941
00:46:04,119 --> 00:46:06,280
opening kickback. And again we talked about just like that

942
00:46:06,320 --> 00:46:08,320
first play in the Super Bowl where the Broncos have

943
00:46:08,920 --> 00:46:11,800
the safety and the routes on for Seattle. As soon

944
00:46:11,800 --> 00:46:14,199
as Shahid ran that kickback, it felt over right there.

945
00:46:14,639 --> 00:46:18,199
You know, Staffs defense pretty dominant in that contest. They

946
00:46:18,280 --> 00:46:21,400
ran for one hundred and seventy five yards. And when

947
00:46:21,480 --> 00:46:24,360
you don't have to make Sam Donald make plays, we

948
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,599
could run the football and rely on your defense. Seattle

949
00:46:27,599 --> 00:46:30,079
can win games and cover point spreads and win them

950
00:46:30,079 --> 00:46:32,599
by margin. But I'm telling you flat out, I know

951
00:46:33,079 --> 00:46:36,199
it cost me a bet not trusting Sam Donald. All right,

952
00:46:36,880 --> 00:46:40,679
Sam Donald since Week eleven, twenty seventh in the NFL

953
00:46:40,719 --> 00:46:44,320
and QBR okay, you know, his air yards per targets

954
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:49,280
way down. His accuracy numbers are down. There are certainly

955
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:53,559
concerns about a QB that has struggled against quality defense

956
00:46:53,679 --> 00:46:58,320
is now in theory playing a quality Rams defense. Of course,

957
00:46:58,320 --> 00:47:00,199
he let this defense up a couple of weeks go.

958
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:03,320
But we remember the thirty eight to thirty seven overtime

959
00:47:03,440 --> 00:47:05,760
thriller in Week sixteen that allowed Seattle to play this

960
00:47:05,840 --> 00:47:10,440
game at home as opposed to on the road that game.

961
00:47:10,559 --> 00:47:12,599
To say that every break went in the Seahawks favor

962
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:16,320
isn't strong enough. Every breaky quitting the Seahawks favor down

963
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:18,199
the stretch of that contest. That's how they were able

964
00:47:18,199 --> 00:47:21,119
to win. And there's a reason here why the Seahawks

965
00:47:21,239 --> 00:47:24,760
not favored by even a field goal in this one,

966
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,639
at least not yet. There's still a lot of respect

967
00:47:28,679 --> 00:47:31,360
for LA in the betting marketplace. If you asked me

968
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:33,960
where this line is going to land, I think it's

969
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:35,440
going to land two and a half more than three.

970
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,119
As I'm thinking about it, as I've talked through it.

971
00:47:37,639 --> 00:47:39,280
This lines not a three. It's a two and a half.

972
00:47:39,320 --> 00:47:42,079
There's still a lot of respect out there for LA

973
00:47:42,239 --> 00:47:44,880
as what many people thought was the best team in

974
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,800
the league going into the postseason. All they've done is

975
00:47:47,800 --> 00:47:49,679
win two playoff games, and they don't have the betting

976
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:51,840
band went because they failed to cover either one of them.

977
00:47:52,079 --> 00:47:56,000
Now they're dogs. Yeah, I think two and a half.

978
00:47:56,800 --> 00:47:58,039
I think it's more likely to go off two and

979
00:47:58,079 --> 00:47:59,840
a half than three, as long as the weather is

980
00:47:59,880 --> 00:48:01,119
in disastrous yep.

981
00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 2: And that's where I'm getting ready to chime in, putting

982
00:48:03,480 --> 00:48:06,880
on my meteorologist's hat for Sunday, which of course is

983
00:48:06,920 --> 00:48:09,840
subject to change. I think in my next life, Teddy,

984
00:48:09,840 --> 00:48:11,639
I'm gonna be a meteorologists people don't get near as

985
00:48:11,639 --> 00:48:13,440
mad about those predictions, but it does.

986
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:16,039
Speaker 1: Say I'm cheazing.

987
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,880
Speaker 2: I'm like, no matter what you do, it's like they

988
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:20,239
said I was going to rain today and the sun

989
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:26,039
is shining. Fifty chance of showers all day in Seattle

990
00:48:26,119 --> 00:48:30,760
forty eight degrees. You mentioned the weather the first time

991
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:34,360
the Rams play the Panthers, that was a factor. It

992
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:36,840
wasn't as bad the second time in Carolina. Is still

993
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:42,239
no cover by the Rams. Sunset five pm in Seattle

994
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:46,960
on Sunday night, it's gonna be chilly, possibly rainy. Do

995
00:48:47,000 --> 00:48:50,360
you think that that is something we need to consider

996
00:48:50,400 --> 00:48:53,159
when placing a wager on Matthew Stafford.

997
00:48:53,880 --> 00:48:56,880
Speaker 1: So it's not Rams. If it's not Rams weather, you

998
00:48:56,920 --> 00:48:59,440
want to be aware. You know there's one. There's there's

999
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:02,519
three old weather teams and one warm weather team still standing.

1000
00:49:03,119 --> 00:49:09,280
So and La hasn't covered yet in the postseason. So okay,

1001
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:09,639
two and a.

1002
00:49:09,639 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 3: Half two and a half.

1003
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:11,719
Speaker 2: I know I don't have anything to tease it with.

1004
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:15,199
But if you had a leg to tease the Rams with,

1005
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:19,719
is we're looking at Rams over a touchdown?

1006
00:49:21,119 --> 00:49:24,000
Speaker 1: Sure there's there's there's worse bets in that, you know,

1007
00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:26,800
I would expect a competitive game, you know.

1008
00:49:28,400 --> 00:49:30,599
Speaker 2: So we're not expecting San Fran two point zero. We're

1009
00:49:30,639 --> 00:49:33,519
not expecting a dominant Seattle Seahawks performance. We're expecting a

1010
00:49:33,639 --> 00:49:37,719
like a knife fight like we saw last night in Chicago,

1011
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:40,800
where it's back and forth, back and forth, and uh,

1012
00:49:41,559 --> 00:49:46,000
either team could possibly win it regardless of the point spread.

1013
00:49:46,159 --> 00:49:48,320
Speaker 1: So I'm going to think about it before I say

1014
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:50,039
exactly how I think this game is going to go.

1015
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,119
I'm very much worried that about the Rams having just

1016
00:49:53,119 --> 00:49:55,519
played two physical games and Seattle just had a laugher

1017
00:49:55,880 --> 00:49:58,639
and on the road. So so you say, could the

1018
00:49:58,679 --> 00:50:00,760
Seahawks run them? Like, yeah, this could run him out.

1019
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:03,800
Of course they could. You know, they're from a physically

1020
00:50:04,039 --> 00:50:07,840
fresh standpoint. These teams are in very different positions right now.

1021
00:50:08,119 --> 00:50:10,559
Speaker 2: Yeah, Matthew Stafford not one hundred percent. We know that.

1022
00:50:10,599 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 3: We've heard different we'll call him rumors, right.

1023
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:17,719
Speaker 2: I haven't seen his throwing hand, like you don't see

1024
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:19,880
him wincing in pain right mid game, or at least

1025
00:50:19,960 --> 00:50:22,679
I didn't yesterday. But that was a factor as why,

1026
00:50:22,840 --> 00:50:24,800
Like the Bears, I think they've been kind of hiding

1027
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:27,079
some of his injuries for a better part of the season.

1028
00:50:27,079 --> 00:50:29,159
If you remember when we did the opening line report

1029
00:50:29,400 --> 00:50:31,360
way back in August, I asked you, I said, well,

1030
00:50:32,519 --> 00:50:35,199
going to be healthy, and by all intents and purposes,

1031
00:50:35,280 --> 00:50:36,639
he looks like he's been pretty healthy.

1032
00:50:37,320 --> 00:50:40,400
Speaker 1: Yeah. Sure, But then again, older qbs at this stage

1033
00:50:40,400 --> 00:50:43,039
of the season, playing in weather, you know, you can

1034
00:50:43,119 --> 00:50:45,880
you can have issues. That being said, they've won, you know,

1035
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:49,360
but from a freshness standpoint, Seattle had a week off

1036
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:52,599
and a blowout. Ram did not have a week off.

1037
00:50:52,639 --> 00:50:55,000
They went back to back barn burners on the highway,

1038
00:50:55,039 --> 00:50:58,639
coming down to the final play so and now traveling

1039
00:50:58,639 --> 00:51:01,199
for a third straight week. So from a freshness standpoint,

1040
00:51:01,239 --> 00:51:04,159
sex of a big edge is that gonna matter? We'll

1041
00:51:04,199 --> 00:51:05,119
find out on Sunday.

1042
00:51:05,559 --> 00:51:08,519
Speaker 2: All right, Teddy covers on the opening line and board

1043
00:51:08,559 --> 00:51:11,559
every single week here Monday Mornings with Me. Wager Talk

1044
00:51:11,599 --> 00:51:14,480
Today is up next Andy Lang and Dan Alexander. So

1045
00:51:14,559 --> 00:51:18,400
make sure you guys hang around in about eight minutes, Teddy,

1046
00:51:18,480 --> 00:51:20,920
any final thoughts for our audience before we get out

1047
00:51:20,960 --> 00:51:21,199
of here.

1048
00:51:22,119 --> 00:51:24,519
Speaker 1: Enjoy the games, good luck, Thanks for watching. Hey guys, listen.

1049
00:51:24,599 --> 00:51:26,360
Most of I mean we talked about two hundred and

1050
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:27,880
forty thousand of you who've subscribed to the Way You

1051
00:51:27,960 --> 00:51:31,239
Talk TV. If you haven't done it right now, just

1052
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,840
hit subscribe. It's so simple. We do a ton of

1053
00:51:35,039 --> 00:51:39,599
really quality content, free content every day. Get it for free,

1054
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,360
get inst your leurse when it goes live. Subscribe. Thank you.

1055
00:51:42,800 --> 00:51:45,039
We appreciate the lights. We appreciate the comments. Kelly and

1056
00:51:45,079 --> 00:51:47,239
I both get in there and try to answer. If

1057
00:51:47,239 --> 00:51:49,960
you have questions, lead in the comments below on YouTube.

1058
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,519
We appreach you it so much, and again check out

1059
00:51:51,519 --> 00:51:55,639
my homepage, wt dot, buzzbackslash TC. I know last week

1060
00:51:55,719 --> 00:51:58,880
wasn't my best. That being said, I haven't given up

1061
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:01,679
and will be just fine in the long term. So

1062
00:52:01,719 --> 00:52:04,920
we appreciate you guys. Thanks for watching, and good luck

1063
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:05,280
this week.

1064
00:52:05,360 --> 00:52:08,239
Speaker 2: Cheers all right, cheers, good luck this week. We'll see

1065
00:52:08,239 --> 00:52:11,119
you guys next Monday morning, same time, same place,