Speaker 1: You are alive, my friend. Welcome to wager Talk today,
the gold standard the sports betting shows where we talk
the talk and walk the walk. It's March madness, guys,
it is here. It's Tuesday. It's five dollars Tuesday, and
we got the first four tipping off. We've got some
NBA action, We've got a lot to get to a
lot of sports. So we're gonna have you completely covered.
To all of you that joined in on the lacrosse
play last night, absolute no sweat, easy winner. So that
is now two plays in a row for the Let
It Ride Mission. And honestly, what Dan is doing in
lacrosse this season is pretty impressive. So he's finishing up
another show. He'll join us here a little bit later.
We'll talk about that and we'll talk about what we'll do,
what we'll do moving forward. But we will have a
play that will go up for our Let It Ride
mission tomorrow. So but today we're talking at college basketball,
we're talking NBA, and we're talking five dollars Tuesday. Please
hit the like button and let's get started. Brian Power,
come on in, my friend. Is like the busiest time
of year for you? Or is there another time of
year that gets.
Speaker 2: A pretty close when people ask me this, like just
you know, neighbors and such, just random people who stopped
me when I'm walking down the street.
Speaker 1: I get a little bit.
Speaker 2: But it's either this or that last week of the year,
between Christmas and New Year's Eve, when you've got the
Bowl games. I'd say those are the two busiest weeks
for sure of the year. But wouldn't have it any
other way. Looking forward to the NCAA tournament and looking
forward to breaking down this first four matchup for everybody
right now, all right, well.
Speaker 1: Let's do it. It's Saint Patrick's Day. Happy Saint Patrick's Day, everyone.
I wake up to an inch of snow in It's
ten degrees where I live.
Speaker 3: Oh, what happened?
Speaker 1: The parade was like Saturday was like seventy degrees, just
like beautiful.
Speaker 3: Oh.
Speaker 2: I took a walk to clear my mind yesterday Andy,
not to get too far off topic, and it was
like really nice out and then the middle of a walk,
it just started snowing, and I'm like, well, this is horrible.
So I scampered home and it's okay, but yeah, we
got stow on the ground here in Cleveland. A little dusting,
if you will, so hope at worms up.
Speaker 1: All right, well let's go over college basketball. First four.
Looks like you got UMBC versus Howard pretty close to
a straight pick him here over Unders at one forty
two and a half? Are you gonnattack the side? Total?
How do you look at this game?
Speaker 2: Let's just talk about the teams in general before I
do kind of have I have a lean here towards
the side we'll conclude with. But look, this is the
all sixteen seed matchup. Gets us going in the first
four in Dayton, little history lesson. I'm sure most people
remember back in twenty eighteen. I think it was UNBC
was the first sixteen seed to win an NCAA tournament
game when they pulled that all time shock over Virginia Howard.
They're making their third tournament appearance in the last four years.
Lost in the playing game two years ago. So I realized,
since this is the all sixteen seed matchup, maybe some
people a little less familiar with these two teams what.
Speaker 3: They've done this season.
Speaker 2: Let's do a quick synopsis before they obviously both won
their respective conference tournaments. Both teams were regular season champions
in the America East and MIAK respectively. Those are the
two weakest conferences ANDY in the country. Per ken Palm,
that's probably has a big reason to do the weakness
of those two conferences. Why these two teams are in
the Play and Round. You look at the schedules for
UNBC and Howard, ken Palm has them three hundred and
sixty fourth and three hundred and sixty fifth in terms
of strength of schedule. For those keeping score at home,
there were only three hundred and sixty five teams and
D one college basketball. So two weakest strength of schedules
in the entire country meeting here in the Play and Round. Now,
what UNBC and Howard did, guys against those week schedules
was cash a lot of tickets. Both are nine and
one against the number their last ten games. UNBC is
actually fourteen and two against the number their last sixteen.
Howard had covered eleven in a row. Meanwhile, before they
won by only seven as an eleven and a half
point favorite in the MIAC Tournament final against NC Central.
So what do we do here. Unbc's won twelve in
a zero straight up, second longest ack to win streak
in the country, trailing only high point, who'll be facing
Wisconsin in the round of sixty four. Ken Pum has
the Retrievers rated as the best of the sixteen seeds,
so maybe there's a sense in their camp that it's
not fair that they were sent to Dayton for this
first four. Again, though, I think it speaks to how
weak the America East was this season. Keys to this
game are threefold. One, Howard turns the ball over too
much three hundred and forty third in the country in
turnover rate again out of three hundred and sixty five teams.
Two offensive rebounding. Unbc's actually top fifteen in the country
in not giving up those they don't give you a
lot of second chances. And number three foul shooting. I
believe we talked about follle shooting on the program last week.
Howard has lived at the free throw line this season, Andy,
but UNBC does not send their opponents the often. As
a matter of fact, the Retrievers send their opponents there
at a bottom ten rate in the country, so that
is something to monitor. If UMBC can defend without fouling tonight,
I think they're in really good shape. And my final point,
what ultimately leads me to recommendation here is that Howard
is due for some serious three point regression. Guys, since
February first, no team in the country, entire country, has
enjoyed a wider discrepancy in terms of percentage from what
it is shot behind the arc versus what their opponents
have shot behind the arc. Howard has been more than
ten percent better than its opponents and from three during
that time since February first. That's a really difficult percentage
to maintain over the long haul. We saw some regression
in the MEAC Attorney Final. Guys, I think UNBC is
a better team here. I know the line is moving
the other way this morning as we speak, So I'm
gonna disagree. I guess I'm gonna push back at we're
seeing right now here on the on screen. UNBC, I
think is the better team. That's who I would play.
Speaker 1: I believe this is two weeks in a row. You've
given us some really good free throw.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 4: Last week, Look, guys, Okay, that was not the crux
of the HANDICU.
Speaker 2: I know people, I went back and on into the comments,
people like lose, Well, what do you mean they have
good free throw defense? I just pointed out okay, and
I was playing the over and by the way, that
was the one I got wrong on last week's show.
I gave you one over that was right, that the
Oregon Maryland that was one of the worst first halfs
played I think in the history of basketball. But you know,
I thought it was worth noting when you're playing the
over that hey, this one team's opponents tends to hit
him from the from the charity stripe. But yeah, in
this case, I think that is a real key andy
to watch UNBC. If they can defend without fouling to
night then, which is what they've done for the balance
of the season. Like I said, I think they're in
really good shape.
Speaker 1: Uh, wreck is curious that money's coming for Howard. I
would be caught just paying attention to the line moves
this early in the day. You normally don't get those
confirmations until Honestly, this time of year, you're not gonna
get them before the first few hours. I'll double check
with Yachtie. Maybe Ralph can jump on that. But they're
going to release these lines and there's gonna be lower limits.
The sharps are going to play the lower limits. The
books will be aggressive on the line moves, and I'm
thinking you're gonna get a lot of buyback on the
sharps once the limits are up, so be careful looking
for the line moves this early.
Speaker 2: I just wanted to notice it because if I didn't
say it, Andy, every one of the comments suctually say hey,
the lines move the other way VP. I wanted to
acknowledge what we're seeing on the screen right now. So yeah, again,
like I said, sometimes you gotta trust your read on
the two teams. Yeah, if you want. It looks like
you can get plus one and a half on UNBC
now at one place. So I would absolutely co sign that,
especially because it's what is it, minus one twelve?
Speaker 1: Yeah, and like it just the line moves are not
always right. That's the other thing.
Speaker 2: So Zendo does sometimes on the way, like he'll call
me after the morning, wage's, oh my god, like the
way the line's moving. And you know, sometimes you're wrong,
but sometimes you know what steam is, it's people making
wrong bets.
Speaker 1: So yeah, absolutely, yeah, they went fifty five fifty six
percent of the time, which means they're losing.
Speaker 2: Uh port, don't just bet something because other people are
betting it, is what I would.
Speaker 1: Say yeah, yeah, it doesn't work well in text threads
and oh, oh you're betting this one. Oh okay, that's yes,
it's yeah, absolutely, So let's move to the NBA. We've
got Cavaliers and we've got the Bucks. Bucks got a
lot of questionables here in this one. This Cleveland team.
I like this Cleveland team. I think they're gonna be
sneaky good in the playoffs. Maybe steam he's not the
right word, but I really like I think I think
this is almost maybe the perfect time and team for
James Harden Like he doesn't have to do everything once
they get to the playoffs. He can be facilitator James
if they need him to shoot threes. But Donovan Mitchell's
there when they're healthy. I like this team tonight. They're
a big favorite. I get it over under his two
twenty eight and a half. How are you breaking down
calves in the Bucks?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I concur with what you're saying about the calves. Andy.
They took a horrible loss on Sunday. Obviously, they lost
out right as fifteen point home favorites to a Dallas
Mavericks team that they had just beatn My thirty three
two days earlier, and there was a lot of overreaction
to that lot. I bring the loss up because you
know here, like my dad texts me like right after,
Oh the Calves suck. I live it for those new
to the program up from Cleveland, I'm like, calmed down, Dad, Okay.
I think the Calves are playing for the four seed
in the East.
Speaker 3: Andy.
Speaker 2: From your remarks, it kind of sounds like you feel
the same way. I think they're playing the long game.
I think they want to avoid both the Celtics and
Knicks until the conference finals. Now, there was no Jared
Allen for the Calves on Sunday. Him being out is
a big deal. Team's just five and twelve against the
number without him this season. So you mentioned the big number.
I'm not really interested in laying it with Cleveland, but
there is an alternate way I'm going to play them
here that I'll get to in just a moment. But
the bigger injury to monitor here is obviously Jannis from
Milwaukee left Sunday the win over Indiana hurt his knee.
He's currently listed is questionable to play for tonight as
a result of that.
Speaker 3: And this is, you know, kind of the.
Speaker 2: Reality of the modern NBA a lot of times with
these injuries. You know, we're sitting here, it's noon Eastern
game seven hours away. What do we expect from the Bucks?
I don't know. So I think it's a real wild
card offensively at least. So if I were to make
a bet on this game, I would take the Cavs
team total over one twenty and a half. Why would
I do that? Well, in that loss Sunday to Dallas Andy,
Donovan Mitchell and James Harden, they were only fourteen of
thirty six from the field. That's thirty nine percent shooting
from your two best players. Call me an optimist. I
think they're going to be more productive tonight against a
Bucks team that is not good defensively. And remember, even
with your two best players shooting that poorly, Cavs still
got to one twenty. We're just asking to score one
more point tonight. And you know, with improved shooting against
a Milwaukee team that is just outside the bottom five
in defensive rating, I think that's gonna happen. Jalen Tyson
is back for Cleveland tonight. He sat out Sunday's lost.
There much better offensive team with him on the floor again.
Milwaukee almost just outside the bottom five, and defensive raiding
Cleveland happens to be number three in points per game
in the league. So I would take a look at
the Cavs over their team total of one twenty and
a half.
Speaker 1: I can't disagree with that at all. So yeah, just
a little regression back to the mean from those two
point guards should be in good shape. I don't know
if there's a right or wrong answer this time of year.
Do you find there's that you do better with these
first four games? Or is it the first round? Is
it the nit? Like how when you when you're looking
at these games, are their matchups that you settle on?
I mean, I mean, I'm I'm there's thirty one points
like twenty seven point spreads and I don't know. I
don't through college basketball. I I got enough sports to
look at it. So is there any particular way that
you look at this time of year?
Speaker 2: So, in full candor, what I'm doing, I'm going lighter
on the first round because the last two years I
have done far better in the second round than the
first round. Why that is is I am someone obviously
if people are familiar with you know, my work over
not just at wage talk, but what I talk about
here on the shows with you and I'm morning wagers.
I often like to buy low, sell high. I always
preface that, and in the second round a lot of
times you can use those first round results to your benefit.
There's a lot of overreaction to the first round results
that I've been very profitable in the second round. The
first round of the last two years. What has happened, Andy,
is you know, I'm generally speaking an underdog player. The
first round of the NCAA tournament is the one is
probably more so than any time on the sports betting
calendar during the year, is when the public is rushing
to play underdog. And these underdogs last year we saw
that they did not do well, and this year they're
not projected to do well. I've talked about this on
many shelves. I'll reiterated here right now in case if
you've missed it. We are right now on pace for
the first time in history since tournament expansion since nineteen
eighty five, where every team seated fourth or higher will
close as a double digit favorite. I guess it remains
to be seen. With the Hofstra Alabama line, I know
that's crashing a little bit in the wake of the arrest.
But again, I mean, we've never seen it before. We're
all top four seeds, close as double digit favorites, and
we are currently on pace for it. And I actually
agree with kind of how the odds makers have this
price d andy. It's tough for me as a guy
who looks for underdogs. Where's that upset going to be?
I think we're heading this year and moving forward, there's
not going to be a lot of upsets in the
first round of the NCAA tournament.
Speaker 1: Yeah, a bad time of year to get popped for
a pound of weed. I mean, is that really a
great time of year?
Speaker 2: I was gonna say, I prefer that happens in the summer.
Speaker 1: No, But but if if there is a bad time
of year, I would say maybe a week before that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of days before the charm is not ideal,
not ideal, not ideal for that to happen. But yeah,
and they took it out of their hands. Obviously, Nate
Oates is a checkered history of letting them play, but
that that decision was taken out of his hands here
And look, guys, you know Pawstra can slow that game
down so that they maybe they are the live dog.
I don't know, but yeah, first round we're still doing.
We do have Let me let me promote a little
bit here. I do have a first for a best
bet up. I will let you guys know. It is
for a game to one of tomorrow's first four matchups
four percent best bet. Uh. We did close the conference
tournaments on a nice four and one run. Our last
best bet was Utah State in the Mountain West Championship game.
For tonight though, because I'm sure everyone wants to bet
something tonight, I do have an NBA play up. We
just heard me break down. The Cavs and Bucks will
have a play up. It's a best bet as well.
Five dollars to get involved, guys, thirty eight and nineteen,
my last fifty seven NBA plays and you go back
to last year's playoffs, almost a full year. We're sixteen
and five with NBA plays righty four percent or higher.
You can get this one for just five dollars. That
seems like a pretty good deal to me. WT Dot Buzz,
Slash BP and check out the Morning Wager as well,
available on both the Wager Talk and Picks and parlays
YouTube channels.
Speaker 1: Nice, nice, excellent stuff. Brian, good luck on that best
bet Tonight's five dollars Tuesday, take care and let's cash
another one?
Speaker 3: All right?
Speaker 1: Dan has joined us Dan Nice Job Live yesterday.
Speaker 3: Yes, yeah, So I saw a couple of pokes in
the chat saying, hey, we got that over through yeah,
twenty and a half. I was talking to you before
we went on air, and I was like, Andy, I
just don't understand why they're pricing it like this. Twenty
five goals that we got early in the fourth so
nice and easy. We love a good rocking chair, Andy,
And the ladder has continued. So if you're like me
and our man Seth who tunes in, we are now
heading to what would that be rung number five of
the ladder, which I'm honestly Andy, I'm starting to think
I might just pull mine out, like I know, scare money,
don't make no money, but I may just pull it down,
bring it on to where you are at on the ladder,
which I believe would be the second step, and roll
with around what would that be like the two thirty
something like that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So for the if those if you guys haven't
been following. We decided to run our version of the
Ladder Challenge, where we call it let It Ride Mission.
The Ladder challenges are like one play a day, trying
to hit ten days in a row. And we looked
at it and was like, that is just mathematically impossible.
I don't see how one person can do it. So
we've rotated sports and rotated days, kind of giving us
our selves a chance to breathe.
Speaker 3: So picking the plays that we really like, you know
what I mean, like not forcing ourselves to do every
single day. We go to put up a play, you know.
And we have done lacrosse on darts, We've done a
parlay between F one and UFC, We've done golf, so
Andy we have we have run the gamut of the
Andy Lang's team experience and it's worked out for us.
Speaker 1: Man, it worked out for yeah. Yeah, So just Brado,
we we put in the rite ups for clients which
plays that we're doing, and we'll tell you on the show.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So yesterday we put that play up on sports Memo.
It was only seven dollars. So we do have a
five dollars best bet that is up. In darts. We
have one play that is up in darts here and
a seven dollars play that is over at Sports Memo.
We've we've been seeing the Premier League of Darts really
really well. We've hit eighty percent of our bets and
we're coming off a really nice run. I don't think
the next play and the let It Ride mission is
going to be on darts. I think it's going to
be tomorrow in another golf play. So part of the
problem is we normally only have one darts play. We
have two, and I don't want to put myself in
a situation where we happen to go one and I
happened to pick the wrong one. So now we we
love these darts plays. We've been seeing them really really well.
I would highly encourage you get it. I fully expected
two and oh I've already locked these in and bet them.
But this golf tournament is going to be really, really profitable,
and there's a couple of plays that I like, so yeah,
we'll well, we'll get you. We'll get you, guys squared away,
but just don't get too anxious. That's the key with
this is we don't want to push a play every
single day. That's the whole crux of it. So Dan,
if you if you guys rolled over five plays, man, man,
that's what I mean like.
Speaker 3: At this point. So technically, if you think about it,
like my investment has only been a hundred bucks, so
like we just let it ride. But I know, and
I'm one of the people who Andy says, you know,
like scare money, don't make no money. I see that
set the saying, hey, I got a cruise wedding to
pay for, so hey for a hundred bucks. You know,
I haven't decided. Maybe we'll see once we decide what
the let it ride play is how I'm going to
attack it. But right now it's just chilling there in
the in the balance, and man, does it look good?
Speaker 1: And yeah, yeah, absolutely so blocked. What happened the long
term LA cross packet? They I think they put it up.
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, they put it up. It was a it
was a flash sail and then some folks they were saying, hey,
we were looking for it. Where is it at? So
it's it's back up WT Dot Buzz, backslash al. You
can get thirty days of lacrosse action and Andy knock
on wood. Let's continue this season that it has been
and we've been selective. You know, we're not going crazy.
You're getting two, three, sometimes four plays a week, but
they're always the strongest play that I have that that
we fire on over there. So it's been night. It's
been working out for clients and you and I thus far.
Let's let's keep it rolling.
Speaker 1: Yeah, everything's been going good here. Uh in March, we're
up about seven units for all access clients, coming off
a really nice weekend. UFC was good to us, so
we'll have plays up once coming out. But yeah, looking
really looking really forward. I think we're seeing the board
really really well. So uh, locking the five dollars play
that goes off on Thursday. You can get the seven
dollars play over at Sports Memo and then we'll be
back tomorrow with another another leg of the let It
Ride emission. So all right, let's bring in Ralph Michaels
and we got to talk a few things, including a
twenty three and five ten trend. Yeah, twenty three and
five trend. I also think there's.
Speaker 3: Ralph, you're muted, just so you know, before you before
I get your cross cross examination, I wanted to give
you the heads off there.
Speaker 5: All right, Well, let me just say this.
Speaker 4: This is Teddy covers with a tier because there's no
cross examination.
Speaker 3: I know, I know well, Ralph. I had to do
freakin bet on it before we hopped in, and you
know from when we're recording bet on It, you know
your your mind cannot be anywhere else other than bet
on It. So I was like, if I throw out
of la cross play, Teddy's gonna cross examine me. It's
gonna be a dog shit play. So I'm full steam
ahead on getting the folks March Madness edition. And you've
been dropping some great charts and stuff, Ralph.
Speaker 4: But I'll tell you what I actually did look at
lacrosse today. Dan, You've got me now looking at damn
be ready, And I do have a legitimate question for you,
and I will give you my opinion of the day. Okay,
So number one, we saw CNN all but you get
canceled tonight. There's only four game schedules. Why the temperatures
in the mid thirties twenty mile an hour wins low teens?
Number one? At what temperature do they not play outside?
And number two? Does win defect lacrosse like it does
a football pass or things like that?
Speaker 5: I have no idea. That's just a legitimate question.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 3: So because the it's it's played lower to the ground,
you know, you're not having those crazy high arching passes
that you would typically expect. And this ball it's like
vulcanized rubber, Ralph, like, you're you're one step away from
basically playing with a concrete ball. So I think wind
affects it as much. But temperature is typically during this
time of year, you've gotten through that. We saw the
beginning of the year. We get a lot of games
that are rescheduled or moved indoors, and we like cash
it in and on that. So there's no real rhyme
or reason, you know, I think when it's wind. Plus
the fact that a lot of these teams like playing
on grass fields, the grass fields are slop right now,
you know, So there's no there's no perfect formula of
when they're going to change it. But also, Ralph, one
thing I'll say about how weather affects lacrosse. A lot
of folks will say, oh, it's raining, I really want
to bet an under because it's going to be sloppy.
It's the exact opposite, especially if you're playing on a
turf field. When it's rainy, the defenders they can't really
stop and be able to react, and the way that
the ball bounces off of the turf when it's wet,
so hard to read for goalies. So actually bad weather.
I'm typically looking to bet overs in lacrosse. So great
question there, Ralph, Ralph.
Speaker 5: Let me ask you this, okay, for my lacrosse play
other day.
Speaker 4: You know, I look at Villanova, who's not off back
to back home losses. Yeah, ranked than Lehigh catchers in
the mid thirties, eleven mile an hour wins.
Speaker 5: This is their first night game of the season.
Speaker 4: I have no idea if that affects anything as well,
But how about this Villanova. When Villanova plays the road,
team is six and one. They have played horrible at home,
They've played great on the road, and their four losses
ranked Saint Joe's ranked, Rutgers ranked pen ranked housand.
Speaker 5: I think they rebound. They're getting one and a.
Speaker 4: Half against Lehigh road teams six and one in Villanova
games home team in Lehigh games two and five combined
eleven and three home road dichotomy between those two teams.
Speaker 3: I mean, Andy, if we had a mic drop, you know,
we need to grab one of those, because Ralph, on
my short list today that just missed Lehigh plus one
and a half Lehigh on the money line, that would
have been the WTFLSG play.
Speaker 5: So I like Villanova, d oh, I'm against you.
Speaker 4: Then Villanova road team is six and one in Llan
Yeah games Lee High at home the home team is
two and five.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Ralph, sorry, I was looking at my I was
looking at my odds board wrong here, Yeah, spot on,
that's a wrong team favored the I. I always get that,
uh that mixed up when you got these two Pennsylvania
schools too, because that's how my things are labeled over here.
But yeah, for me, it would be take the plus
one oh four on the money line with Villanova, take
the road team simply because you're seeing Lehigh getting respect
here because they're the home team. It's not that big
of a travel spot. You know, the weather is absolute crap.
Villanova has a face off advantage, so uh yeah, a
little overrated.
Speaker 5: Because they've eat Michigan.
Speaker 3: One million percent. So the w t f LFG play
just came out, Ralph, Michaels gave it to you Villanova
in lacrosse, How about that, Andy, Ralph?
Speaker 1: Great job, Ralph, great job, Ralph. Let's talk. Let's go
to uh let's go to college basketball. Here. We gotta
gotta have you your take on first four game with
Texas versus n C State, and then we're gonna talk
some trends. You got a chart, We got a great
twenty three and five trend that's going viral on TikTok
as we speak. So Texas minus one and a half
over under one, fifty eight and a half. Big total here.
How do you break this game down?
Speaker 4: Well, look, we have two offensive teams and two poor
defensive teams that actually matched up earlier this year. I
think it was in Hawaii. That game actually was NC
State one oh two to ninety seven in the Mahui Invitational.
Now we have this Texas team that finished the season
losing their last four excuse me, losing their last two
regular season games and four of their last five. NC
State lost their last four regular season games and four
of the last six. Two coaching things I want to
point out one for each side. NC State, of course,
Will Wade as the head coach. After they lost to
RGIN in you Thursday in the ACC quarterfinals, he came
out and he said we're taking off Friday and Saturday.
I think there's better than a thirty percent chance will
play in the playing game, so I am going to
schedule my practices accordingly. I think that is great foresight
to think that's a situation and plan on that. But
also in edge for Texas, remember Sean Miller, his first
year is Texas. Where was Sean Miller last year he
was at Xavier. What did Xavier do in the playing game?
They actually beat this Texas squad. So Sean Miller beat
Texas last year in the playing game, and now he's
coaching Texas in.
Speaker 5: The playing game.
Speaker 4: I think that's important to know how to prep your
team for that role. You look at the teams on
the season, Texas eight and fourteen versus the number twenty schedule,
NC State, when twenty and thirteen versus the number twenty
seven schedule. When we look at the metrics in the
last three weeks, again we know both teams have played poorly.
They're basically identical number fifty five and number fifty six.
FYI playing games, the favorites are fifteen and fifteen, but
if the favorite has under three days of rest, they're
only four and seven against the spread with four days
of rest or more like Texas has, they're actually eleven
and eight fifty seven percent against the spread and number
sixteen seeds. The favorites are only seven and ten in
the playing games, but in the eleven seeds with the
major conferences, those guys are eight and five against the
spread sixty two percent and six and three sixty seven
percent with four days more or rest. I look at
these matchups and that does have me leaning with the Longhorns.
Texas away from home against the spread with three of
those four ats losses as a dog. NC State away
from home only seven and nine against the spread and
only one in six against the spread as a dog
or small favorite. We look at Texas against elite defenses.
They've played poorly three and ten.
Speaker 5: Against top sixty five defenses.
Speaker 4: NC State nowhere near that. Texas is eleven and three
straight up when they're playing a defense rate number eighty
or worse, and when NC State is playing a top
thirty offense this year, they are only one in seven
straight up with the win versus SMU. Texas against the
win and I think this line is incredibly this total
is incredibly over inflated.
Speaker 5: I'm gonna throw in an opinion on the under as well.
Speaker 1: All right, we get to under. Yeah, so what points
out there's a few books that have kind of swapped
here with NC State. I say, on DraftKings, NC State
is now minus one and a half but a plus money.
So there's a little bit of line where we talked
about does align. I mean, does that really matter that much?
Like minus one and a half to a minus one
and a half when it just kind of jumps over
the zero number there for you, Ralph, Yeah.
Speaker 4: You know, not really And you know, if you really
think on a higher scoring game, I don't know if
I use the money line, but on a lower scoring game,
if the total were in the one thirties, I would
be using the money line and laying the one or
one twenty five and andy. Before we get to our
second game, I do want to bring up something us
Brian about value in March Madness compared to the NIT.
I will unequivably say this, there is more value in
the opening round of an NIT game versus an NCAA game.
Why in March Madness you don't have to handicap motivation.
It's a big deal in the n I t for
those teams that got their bubble burst and didn't make
it into selections, didn't make didn't hear their name called
on selection Sunday. So you have to read a lot
of local newspapers. You have to read between the lines
on the coach's quotes. But you can usually pick out
two or three teams that are not giving it their
full effort because they were left out of the tournament.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we saw teams, but I'm not We're
not playing like in football. Oh we didn't we didn't
make it to the playoff. Well we're not going.
Speaker 5: Yeah, but you know, in the n I T you
get those extra practices.
Speaker 4: Any first or second year a coach, or any coach
that has a young team, they are absolutely gonna play,
even if they're playing for next year.
Speaker 5: It gives them those valuable extra reps.
Speaker 1: All right, well let's move to the n I T.
Here looks like we get you see Irvine versus unl V.
How are we looking at this breakdown?
Speaker 4: Well, you know, just as I said, Andy, IRV I
may have been a team that had their bubble burst
because they were close to being a team that could
have made the tournament had they won couple conference games.
Had they won a couple of conference tournament games, they
likely would have been in but they lost to Why
so they're here. But in this case, I do not
feel they are a team that will not be focused here.
I love Russell Turner, their head coach. You know what
happened last year? They got left out with a better team,
and what did they do? They won their first three
NIT games, got to the NIT Championship. This is a
third straight year there in the NIT, and now after
losing the NIT championship last year, they have a chance
to get to the finals and actually win the NIT tournament.
Speaker 5: So I don't not think they have that downfall. You
look at them this year.
Speaker 4: UCI twenty three and eleven versus the number one hundred
and sixty seven schedules, so middle of the road UNLV
seventeen and sixteen. They have played a much tougher schedule,
Number eighty three Irvine All defense. They're number two fifty
three on offense, number six in the country and defense.
UNLV number eighty six in offense, number two forty two
in defense. UNOLV is top one hundred in the number
of points that come from two point shots, over fifty
percent of their points come from two pointers, but Irvine
is number one in the country and two point defense,
and they're only one of six teams that have allowed
under forty five percent from two and you know what,
they're allowing forty two point seven percent, an amazing number.
Irvine seventeen and fifteen against the spread, But if you
exclude games as a double digit favorite and knock off
the first few games in the season where they started slow,
they are actually sixteen and six seventy three percent against
the spread, with a total of one forty four higher.
They have covered six straight by eight points per game.
UCI is seventeen and three straight up versus d's ranked
one fifty or higher, and all three losses were away
from home UNLB sixteen and sixteen against the spread, eight
and nine ats away from home, they were a good
away dog, getting nine or more. They went five and one.
They were a good away favorite of nine or more
two and zero. That's seven and one is a big
dog or a big favorite. But with the lines between
the Nines, they are one and eight straight up, one
and eight against the spread added up, the n Eaters
advance to Round two. They are the number four seed
in the nit they will be playing again end this weekend? Andy,
do I need to tell you that you are muted?
Or is that Dan's job?
Speaker 3: That's gonna be Teddy's job? Where's Teddy apt when we
when we need him? Ralph? Well?
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 1: My My follow up was how does a college end
up with an ant eater as a as a mascot? Like?
What are Let's get him boys, let's go eat these
as you know.
Speaker 5: Well, let's see we have the accred zips. How about
a kangaroo? Is that any better than a ant eater?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: But not how many kangaroos are there?
Speaker 3: So?
Speaker 5: Yeah, has a kangaroo? So does that count?
Speaker 1: You know exactly? Looseid interpretation? I don't know. I was
just curious. So Ralph, we're going to get to this
chart here, but it's five dollars Tuesday. Tell her what
you have about for everyone?
Speaker 4: Well, I have an an t play today, but I
do want to say this, Yes, it's five dollars, but
do not buy it. I finished college basketball number one
this year in profit at wager Talk on the season
last year March Madness, I finished number one at wager
Talk in profit. I already have a five percent loaded
for Friday, that is thirty five dollars.
Speaker 5: Why not get the rest of college basketball?
Speaker 4: And I'm key the Crown Tournament and every March Madness
play through the National Championship in Andy's hometown of Indianapolis
on April the sixth. Just one hundred and forty nine
dollars will get you the entire package. That's good for
me or any cap or wager talk. But again, number
one this year, number one March Madness last year a
big five percent loaded.
Speaker 5: You know what to do?
Speaker 1: I do know what to do, Ralph. Hopefully everyone follows
suit on that. Let's let's continue this run. But let's
go over this chart here, go over the one, the
one that you talked about on TikTok. Was it twenty
three and five run or trend?
Speaker 3: Well it is.
Speaker 4: Let's go ahead and show the number one chart first,
because it is a subset of this chart. And I
hear all the time. You know, you walk into a
sports bar and people say, oh, I'm going to bet
the number one seed.
Speaker 5: The first words out of their mouth. You are square.
Speaker 4: Oh I'm going to bet a twenty point favorite a
number two seed. You are square. Take a look at
this data guys, this is the last four years at
number one seeds.
Speaker 5: Well, I can tell you this.
Speaker 4: Number one seeds have gone fifty six percent with four
days of rest or more, they're sixty four percent, and
we're a total under one forty eight. Number one seeds
are actually nine and one ninety percent the last four years.
Take a look, there's only one red number and that
is a number four seed with four days of restor
more and a total under one forty eight. So when
I take all of that data and break it down
for you, this is what I get. Top three seeds
in round one. So number one seeds, number two seeds,
number three seeds with at least four days of rest
and a total under one forty eight, they have gone
twenty three and five eighty two point one percent against
the spread.
Speaker 5: So betting the's favorites are not square, just the opposite.
Speaker 4: There's actually value because so many people that bet college
basketball think it's absolutely insane that bet to lay twenty
points or more when it's not, and it hasn't been
for the last half a decade.
Speaker 1: Wow, I mean, wouldn't guess that's just thirty some odd
points is insane? That's I mean imagine just starting a
game and you're down thirty one nothing.
Speaker 3: Because it's automatic. That's what it is.
Speaker 1: Like, that's what it is. But this is it's a
pretty interesting, pretty interesting correlation there, Ralph. So all right,
three and five, what is it?
Speaker 5: That's it?
Speaker 4: It's it's number one, two or three seats with at
least four days of rest and a.
Speaker 5: Total under one forty eight.
Speaker 4: All right, again, the rest makes sense because these teams
that are number one, two and three sets played this
past weekend.
Speaker 5: The crappier teams played the weekend prior. So you have a.
Speaker 4: Team that did get their feet under their get their
feet back after playing in the conference tournament.
Speaker 5: They are arrested with four days of rest.
Speaker 4: And they are not playing a wild offensive team where
they got to run up and down the field.
Speaker 5: And remember these first games.
Speaker 4: I understand a lot of people say, well, they've got
a big game on deck, so I don't want to
lay these points. Well, i'll tell you what. Duke's third
string is better than their opponent's first string. So there's
times when even they have to bring in their second
and third string that it's not a negative like people think.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and those players like that's their moment to shine.
Like you bring in these bench guys, they're out there
playing harder than the than the starters were in the
first round. So it makes almost.
Speaker 4: Absolutely to get to get into the box score and
play defense.
Speaker 5: That's that's what these kids do when they're playing that game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely absolutely, Ralph Michaels, thank you so much. Great trends. Uh,
don't forget to check out all this plays at wager
Talkie's running that rest of any.
Speaker 5: One more note I want to share for round one.
Speaker 4: Since twenty twenty one, round one totals of under twenty
eight are sixty four percent to the over. Basically that's
only been a handful of games Round one. This is
basically blind betting every round one game blindly. Round one
games with a total of over one twenty eight are
fifty four and ninety four sixty three point five percent
to the under. So make sure you really like it
over to be betting it over in round one where
basically every game on the board for the last four
years has gone sixty six point to the under.
Speaker 5: That's a trend you have to pay attention to.
Speaker 1: Makes sense, makes all the sense in the world. So
great stuff. Ralph always giving you a bunch of information
across sports that we did not even expect. So thank
you very much, Ralph. A couple of things to go
over with you. Dan Uh Okay, Calshi is doing their
one billion dollars for the perfect Bracket challenge.
Speaker 3: Uh, that's why we're not gonna have it.
Speaker 1: Okay. So what if just every year for the rest
of my life, I just try and do the same
like pattern of seeds.
Speaker 3: Why not can I one day?
Speaker 1: It'll have I hit one in the next thirty or
forty years. Math would say no, but that's the thing,
like you try and pick different teams. I'm not going
to try and pick the teams. I'm just gonna say.
Speaker 3: You're just doing it. You're just doing a soul like
pattern that you just stick with that pattern.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and then I just needed to hit one, like
the trends are telling you the favorites are winning, so
right there, Like in this in this new era of
an IL, I think people thought, oh, other schools have
a chance. Well it turns out it's kind of not really.
Speaker 3: No, it's exactly yes, the people who have money have
have all the chance. Well, Andy, even if you're going
with the same pattern year over year over year. How
much are they giving away? They're giving away a billion
if somebody gets a perfect bracket, yes, billion dollars. Well
up that with a couple of zeros. Sense as we
well know, Andy, what is it? Nine point two quintillion
com nations of potential? How your bracket's gonna work out?
So hey, maybe for the next you know, the years
of your your young life, Andy, you try the exact
same pattern in one day you'll win the billion. But
if they want to give true odds, you put up
the nine to nine point two quintillion. Let me own
a share of Tesla, give me, give me the biggest
share of Tesla, and then then we'll then we'll be talking.
Speaker 1: The year the year I completely lost faith in filling
out brackets was the year one of my female friends
from Ireland she joined and she picked based on the
mascots and finished second.
Speaker 5: Well.
Speaker 3: Yeah, when we were in high school, you know, the
whole entire school enters in right, you know, and there
was always a senior who would collect everybody's money. Is
that and the other thing? So my brother who you know,
for for all of what we know Andy about sports,
like you know, you like, you're probably your go to
guy in your friend group. Oh what do you think
about this? Odio? So the same for me. My brother
is the exact opposite. And he had a best friend
whose last name was Butler at the time, and that
was where Butler wasn't a household name at all. That
was the crazy year that Butler went on the run
and won the national championship. I think it was like
two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, something like that.
That was the year that my brother beat the entire
school because he was the only person who had Butler
winning the championship solely because his best friend's last name
was Butler. Andy, there are no there's there's nothing you
can do to make your bracket, right, folks, just piss
pick off of you know what the animals are.
Speaker 1: I mean, you just how do you handicap that? Like,
you can run as many simulations as you want, and
you're going up against a guy that happened to pick.
Speaker 3: Butler who uh, small town or college combined again, you
would need nine point two quintillion of your best friends.
So it's to join you.
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, it's an insane Yeah, it's an insane thing.
And I'm sure that they probably have. I'm sure, I'm
sure they have things in place where you can't spam
a bot and have the same person fill out yeah,
nineteen million units, but even if you did spend even
if you did fill out nineteen million, but you can
make it easier where you're like, I don't want any
sixteen seeds winning in the first round. I don't want
any filled me.
Speaker 3: Yeah, but that'll be the year when a sixteen seed
wins Andy, when somebody finally has the perfect bracket and
it's documented, it's proven, that's when we'll know the simulation
has truly broken in. We're already trending towards that. That's
what we'll know. It's guaranteed that the simulation has been fried.
Speaker 1: This has been done with lottery and power balls. The
first group I ever heard came over from Australia for
a power ball and it was it was a big group,
and they went around to every gas station, every place
that sold lottery tickets. They blanketed. I mean from the
time these places open to the time they closed, they
had people coming in and buying all the random tickets
and so they got one where they got lucky was
nobody else got one, Like, if somebody outside your group
chops the pot, you're screw screwed, You're screwed. So it's
got to be a monster monster number to try something
like that. And then there's the chance that the bot
gets chopped in half, which would be the most disheartening
thing ever to put in all that work. So all right,
we got some free plays to get to and all
around the world. But honestly, Dan, I think let's think
about it. Let's have our discussion about the let It
Ride mission, because I have a lot of thoughts based
on what I've seen in my bank role over the
last few weeks and kind of things like that. So
I have thoughts. We don't need to decide right today.
We'll tell everyone tomorrow. But plays that are part of
the normal bank role, that's our five or that's our
five dollars Tuesday play with darts. There's one over at
Sports Memo, there's one over at wager Talk, So go
ahead and grab those. Let's do some free plays here.
We're gonna start with the Bruins and the Canadians. It
was funny I logged into our Google doc and last
Tuesday we had a free play on Charlie McAvoy. So
we're going right back to it because we hit the
one last Tuesday. This guy just is just an absolute machine.
He's gone. He's had a point in eighteen out of
twenty games, seven straight. The last game he played against Montreal,
he had three points. Montreal. They've lost two straight. They've
given up four goals. This guy's just a he's a
wagon man. He just I don't know why this isn't
minus one seventy minus one eighty. Maybe they're thinking the
streak is gonna come to an end, but boy, minus
one forty five. Yeah, you have my attention. Valast Bar Championship.
Look at Justin Thomas. Depending on what book you have,
you can take a look at the top twenty or
the top thirty markets. Make sure you're doing the including ties.
I see top twenties like minus plus one thirty four,
top thirty minus one twenty. So Dan and Jan and
I record the Golf Show. Justin Thomas comes back from
hip injury a couple of tournaments ago, and it was
just truly awful. He was really bad, and then last
week he finishes eighth. I watched a lot of him.
He just looked completely one hundred percent healthy. It was
like all the rust came off of him. Everything looked good.
His driving look good, his irons look good, his putting
look good. And I don't know why he would be
playing this tournament if he felt some ill effects of
the surgery. This is not a huge event. It's not
a stacked loaded field. But he's already down in Florida
and three tournaments in a row right off of hip surgery.
I think he's telling us that he feels pretty good
after an eighth place finish last week. He's already way
behind in FedEx Cup points. So I think if he's
telling us he's good enough to play, we probably have
to believe him, and then we'll go with these Suns
and the Wolves. Here's another one. I don't get Jordan
Goodwin over five and a half points. He's gone over
in thirteen straight. A lot of these games he's landing
right on six because he's hitting like two three pointers
or like a three to two in a made free throw.
He's coming off the bench, but his minutes are still
pretty decent. So let's look at the over in thirteen straight.
Anthony Edwards is going to be out for the Wolves tonight,
So this could be a pretty close game. I do
have a four percent NBA play that is up in
this game. There's a there's one prop I like a
little bit more, but that one, that one definitely had
my attention. So all right, that is gonna do it. Yeah, listen, JT. Burda,
we talked about Wyndham Clark over him. That wasn't even close,
Like just he just looked fantastic. I couldn't believe it,
could not believe. He didn't show any signs of that.
So all right, that is going to do it for us.
Speaker 3: Dan.
Speaker 1: What is the weather like for you on Saint Patrick's
Day right now?
Speaker 3: Windy as ass Andy? All night long it was rap
rap rapping on the window like a like a Edgar
Allen post story. And uh and yeah, it's it's been brutal.
Now it's freezing. There was random snow that ended up
happening last night. It has lack of better term, sucked.
And I told you, Andy, I'm coaching lacrosse. Now that
I'm back here coaching my nephew's team, I'm excited about it.
We have a game this weekend on Saturday.
Speaker 5: Andy.
Speaker 3: We have had a grand total of zero practices thus
far thanks to the fact that our field is all grassed.
It's been an absolute swamp. So I'm just saying, and
obviously this is a complete joke. Do not come after me.
Lay it with Mannheim Township when they play the Exeter
boys youth lacrosse team on Sunday on Saturday, because we're
not looking good. Team total under total under on the
on the Exeter seventh grade boys lacrosse.
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's too bad.
Speaker 3: Yeah, if anyone would have it, it would be three
six five.
Speaker 1: So well, calc back and see if they got that one.
So yeah, it's there's snow here. It's ten degrees when
I woke up. It's a miserable Saint Patty's day.
Speaker 3: Just nothing. A half and half Guinnison Smiths can't fix Andy.
Let's go.
Speaker 1: Don't you threaten me with a good time? All right,
thanks guys for watching. Appreciate you. Please hit the like button,
its comment and the comments sex and tell us who
you're liking in uh in in college basketball tonight. I
appreciate you, guys, and we'll see everyone the same time,
same place tomorrow. Look on your bets to take care