Speaker 1: You're live, my friend. Welcome to wager Talk Today, the
gold standard of sports betting shows, where we talk to
talk and walk the walk. And we certainly don't take
a drink of our beverage right as we're going live. Nope, no,
we don't do that anyway. Welcome guys. It's Thursday. We
got NFL, we got NBA. Yanni and I had a
conversation literally twenty seconds ago that we got to bring
up because this is going to be really, really interesting.
Yaddy's going to start off the show with the Steam Report,
and then we got to bring on Joe Vernieri again
to talk a little bit about our Miami Indiana matchup.
But we want to get Joe's thoughts on Bill's Broncos.
And we got big NBA Prime doubleheader tonight, thunder Rockets,
Nicks Warriors. We've got all around the world jam packed show.
Thank you very much guys for watching, and please hit
the light button when we get started. Just takes a
couple seconds out of your day and it really really
helps us out boosting the algorithm.
Speaker 2: So Yanni, get what in here we want to get.
Speaker 1: All right, let's just jump right into our to our
conversation and then I want to get in the steam report. Okay,
so we're looking at UFC lines and there's Umar Nurmaga
met off minus we'll call it thirteen hundred. We'll call
it minus thirteen hundred on DraftKings against Davison figuretto.
Speaker 3: What's you were saying like they're almost telling you not
to bet this?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's here's the here's the problem I have. Once
you get up to that minus thirteen hundred range, that's
exactly that price. Your break even is now ninety three percent.
So that's what that price reflects. So to have an edge,
to look at this with no objectivity, to say, you
know what, no bias at all. I'm not talking about
predicting the outcome of the fight. I'm just looking to
see if there's value on fighter A. And I look
at fighter A and his odds are minus thirteen hundred.
That to me means that that fighter has to win
this fight ninety four percent of the time for me
to break even. For me to have an edge, I
now have to conclude he wins this fight about ninety
six ninety seven percent at a time. That's just having
a small edge above his implied win probability. I just
think the risk reward isn't there that to have that
type to place that type of bet. I just think
that the downside risk is so much greater than the
upside game that you're putting up way too much and
that there's just too many black swans that could ruin
that for you, a bad called by a reth, a judge,
something along those lines. He wakes up that day not
feeling great, has a headache, gets in a fight with
his girlfriend. All those things are are factors that you know,
we can't quantify, but they would affect the outcome of
the fight. And when you get up to that break,
even being over ninety percent, my question is always going
to be where's the edge coming from?
Speaker 3: Do we conclude he wins this fight.
Speaker 4: Ninety eight ninety nine out of one hundred times that
this opponent had zero chance. And it's hard for me
to get there when I look at Davison Figoredo. Granted
he's at the end of his career, but he's still
won four of his last six fights.
Speaker 3: His last two losses are still to the top two.
Speaker 4: Guys, Corey Sanhagen and Peter Jan Granted, Umar beat san
Hagen convincingly and Davison got knocked down. But I don't
think that, you know, fighter A beats Fighter B, so
fighter B should beat Fighter C.
Speaker 3: MMA.
Speaker 4: Matt warrants this big of a ligne adjustment because we
have a price to compare. And when we look granted,
Davison was a dog against san Hagen, a decent dog
against san Haagen, but Umar was still about a minus
three hundred minus four hundred. He wasn't up over that
minus thousand range. That's the problem I had. Yes, Umar
wins this fight. I highly doubt Figuredo wins it. Gun
the head. Everything I'm putting on Bumar as a good bet,
It's hard for me to argue that laying thirteen hundred
constitutes a good plus EB spot.
Speaker 1: And see, I look at this and I just go,
I gotta figure out how to make money off of this.
I have to, because I do think he wins ninety
eight times out of one hundred. I mean, you got
fig The big thing with Figuring, he had that horrible
knee injury against Sandagan. He comes back too early and
he gets the gift of gifts where he fights Montel Jackson,
who had the biggest deer in the headlights. Look I've
seen in the main event, and it still took him
a split decision. He's he's basically a shot fighter. And
I look at that price tag and I say, I
actually think it might be a gift. How can I
make money off of it? The ultimate example, of course,
is the Mayweather fight against Connor McGregor, with guys saying
not scared of laying big juice on this. I just
I wanted to have this conversation with He's like, is
this one of those spots you would have met like this?
Speaker 4: Are you looking the prophet? Are you looking to determine
the method of victory?
Speaker 3: Or are you like you know what?
Speaker 4: Because I had oh my god, I can't bo Nickel
on my podcast and I brought this up before to
you where I talked to him about the line moving
when he was on Contender Series, and I.
Speaker 3: Said, should I still bet you?
Speaker 4: It was thirteen hundred, eighteen hundred, twenty two hundred, twenty
eight hundred. I'm like, should I still be betting you?
And he was like yes, yes, yes, yes, yes all
the way up to ninety nine percent, he said, because
that dude had zero chance.
Speaker 3: Like even there, He's like you'd.
Speaker 4: Have a one percent edge over the house because I
would have had to beat myself, Like I would have
had to fall down, break my neck, something like that
would have had to happen for me to lose that fight.
He said, as soon as I touched him, I knew
he posed no threat. It would be like you and
an eight year old. You know he's not beating you,
Like as soon as you touch his arm and you
feel he has no strength, he's not doing anything to you.
And again, an eight year old get lucky kicking the
balls or something. I don't know nine times out of ten, Hey,
you're old, ain't getting the wu And and so I
I see that argument and andy guys threw it out
here all the time. I saw it with boxing. I
talked about it in that last fight with UH with Paul.
How you know the big guys don't mind laying that
minus six eight hundred to make money. So yeah, there's
an argument for your side, and there's there's sharp guys
that absolutely would lay this price if they came to
that conclusion. I just haven't gotten there. But I again,
you don't see me running in a window to bet Davison.
Speaker 1: So yeah, true, anyway. Yeah, I don't have a play
on him yet, but I just know, I know me
and my team are are gonna look at that and
we're gonna we have to profit off of that. Lumar
is gonna win unless Gore thing happens. Yeah. So anyway, Uh,
interesting conversation on laying those big numbers. All right, let's
get to the your steam report. Let's start with the
big boys. Let's start with NFL. What are we seeing
in the market so far?
Speaker 4: All right, gonna off some of the plays from the
steam sheet that had been in there since like Monday Tuesday,
so some of these lions have moved now.
Speaker 3: The steams have been doing good this week ten and
three on premiums.
Speaker 4: I've stayed real selective, but I've been adding everything into
that steam sheet.
Speaker 3: Here's some of the NFL.
Speaker 4: They laid Seattle as soon as the Seattle line came out,
But then yesterday I started seeing the seven.
Speaker 3: And a half get picked off on San Francisco.
Speaker 4: So that game's really interesting because I've seen both both
sharp opinions liking Seattle if they could get seven at
minus one ten, or liking the seven and a half
being able to get over a touchdown on San Francisco.
So it'd be interesting to see how that one plays out.
And you could just tell if you look at the
odds logic exclaim. Some books have seven juice, some books
have seven and a half where the juice is on
the dog. So it depends what risk they have, which
makes that one really interesting. And you know it's the
third time these two teams are meeting three ninety one
under Buffalo Denver. Be careful there because the bettingston dislike
to get out ahead of the market when it comes
to the playoffs. They determine which way the betters are
going to go, what the bias is, and they'd like
to get out ahead and then come back and pound
the other side late. We saw a lot of that
in the wild card round, but they did go under
forty seven Buffalo Denver, New England. This one was a
little bit surprising because I know many thought the line
should have been shorter on Houston, New England, but they
went through that key number of three. You were looking
at three and a half yesterday until some of that
got bought up on Houston.
Speaker 3: So again, playoff football and you have.
Speaker 4: A difference of opinion amongst sharp betters, and it all
comes down to the number. Meaning there's betters that want
to lay that three on New England. There's other sharps
that want to take that three and a half on Houston.
There's there's winning betters that are willing to lay the
seven on Seattle. There's winning betters that are willing to
take the seven and a half on San Francisco.
Speaker 3: Which shows you just.
Speaker 4: How tight the lines are when it gets to the
playoffs this late in the season and why most of
the Sharks plays are on props team totals first half.
Stuff like that sides in totals hard to beat. They
also took Denver Denver plus one and a half. That
one's flip. Denver is now the favorite and then the
under in the rams in Chicago, they started betting that
under at fifty one, fifty one and a half, they
stop betting at about forty nine, and public's betting that
one over.
Speaker 3: So if you agree with the under, I use that
on bed on it.
Speaker 4: If you watched that yesterday, that'll probably come back because
it's heavy on the over from the betting public, and
real quickly before we move the baskets. In college football,
as I talked about on bet on It. Indiana got
bet immediately as soon as this line opened, and it
was expected because power rating wise, they should be closer
to a double digit favorite, but that's the power rating
of the entire season. Recency is what we got to
pay attention to, and that's what I'm keeping my eye
on because the initial move towards Indiana was obvious, and
you're gonna hear nothing but one sided Indiana money as
we head into the weekend. But rest assured, the Miami
money will start coming in depending how high this line goes,
and then it'll be interesting to see if we see
sharp money come back and blast Miami as well.
Speaker 3: The under got hit immediately.
Speaker 4: That was a little bit surprising because the bias of
the betters is towards the over. When you look at
the recency of both these teams high scoring, you would
think that the market's gonna bet this one over, but
wise Guy's thought it was shaded a little bit too high,
and rather than waiting for the public to possibly move
this line higher and get a better under, they came
in immediately. Because remember, these guys aren't working together. It's
it's a zero sum game. So we're all trying to
beat the other guy to that betting line, and you
don't know if someone else is going to pull the trigger.
And that's exactly what happened there where they didn't want
to lose out on that forty nine and forty eight
on Miami and Indiana. So that's NFL and college football
for this weekend.
Speaker 1: I mean, NFL you get the National Championship. And Jesse
and I had this conversation about, you know, recency bias,
and we had we had a laugh and it was like, yeah,
recncy bias. ID he has been killing everybody.
Speaker 3: Yep.
Speaker 1: But so like the power rankings in the in the
regular season, how much should that affect this line? Like
it's kind of like NFL playoffs, don't you kind of
throw a little bit of it out the window? All
of it out the window. It's it's playoff time, man.
Speaker 4: Yeah, you have to, I mean, but at the same time,
you need something to go off of, like, yeah, we
have eleven games of data and that kind.
Speaker 3: Of tells you the story of these two teams.
Speaker 4: That's you know, and on paper, there's not a question
of we know who had the tougher strength of schedule
that was Indiana. Like we know who had the more
efficient offense, that was Indiana. We know who had the
more efficient defense, even that was Indiana. And even though
Miami's getting all the hype for their defense, there's still
third in efficiency where Indiana second. And that was against
a tougher strength of schedule. So we have the rightful
favorite in Indiana. It's just how big of a favorite
should they be? And again, like I said, most power
ratings and I've moved my Miami up. I have Miami
now seven, and it was hard getting them to crack
the top ten because of their offense, you know, being
barely you know, a top twenty offense with that strength
of schedule. But how they've been playing lately, you have
to take that into account.
Speaker 3: And I think that's.
Speaker 4: The key to this game, because if we look at
the entire season, then Indiana should be a double digit favorite.
If we're looking over the last two or three games,
that shouldn't be the case, and I think it should
be you know, closer to that touchdown, in which case
Miami's the side I think as better. That's what you
got to focus on, like will that will they sustain that?
Can they sustain that another sixty minutes. If they can,
then Miami's getting more points than they should. Are they
going to regress towards the me in that sixty minutes,
then they're not getting enough.
Speaker 3: I think that's where that game sits.
Speaker 1: Props market. You can really take advantage of this. Oh yeah,
because because the books, they're kind of just taking the averages.
That's what it's playoffs. You can find some sneaky, sneaky
good life and maybe because they're making you lay minus
one fifteen minus one twenty, they don't have.
Speaker 4: To be right fifty percent of the time and still
make money with those problems.
Speaker 3: That's why they're in a good position.
Speaker 4: And that's why, like I out my side total, that
package is already up, but I left it open and
wrote player props coming because that is where the money's
gonna come. Like a bunch of stuff's gonna start coming
in game day. And I'll probably have more risk on
the props at least when the Superbowl I always had
than the side or total.
Speaker 3: So we'll see Monday what happens.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we have two and one on our five. We
have three five percent plays last week on player of props.
We hit two of them, so for you, yeah, nice
and nice week. Let's let's move to hoops. You want
to talk college, well a little bit, and then Block
has a question for you that I think can help
us all out.
Speaker 4: Actually all right, I'll pull a couple of these off
today's steam sheet. Eight twenty three Eastern Illinois plus six
and a half, seven ninety five Oakland minus two, eight
sixteen South Alabama plus three and a half, eight thirty
South Utah plus six and a half, and six eight
forty nine u See River Sigdne plus five and a half.
And then real quickly, I'll give you a couple of
NBA signs five twelve Dallas plus one and minus one
and a half. So they flipped the favorite there Charlotte
five seventeen plus five and then five oh five Oklahoma
City minus four and minus four and a half. And
they played two overs over Phoenix, Detroit, over Atlanta, Portland.
So you got hoops, you got football, You're ready to
do some damage.
Speaker 1: Let's great question from Blocked. It's inevitable we all run
into this, I said, he said, he's running cold. Where
do you find confidence when you're in a class the
street Zoom out.
Speaker 3: That's what I always do.
Speaker 4: I honestly, when I'm running cold, I zoom out, like
if you're having a good twelve months, six months, four months,
zoom out to that and remind yourself that even during
your most profitable years, you're gonna have to overcome tough days,
tough weeks, and tough months.
Speaker 3: You have to be built for that.
Speaker 4: Keep reminding yourself over and over, and don't like question
your technique. That's what the mistake better start doing. They
start questioning their approach and do I change this up?
Do I go opposite myself. If you're doing that, you
need to take a little break because now you're guessing,
and you never want to be in the position where
you feel like you're guessing, even if you're wrong.
Speaker 3: You want to at least have a process.
Speaker 4: And if your process is constantly changing, that's where you
need to take a break and refine it.
Speaker 3: That's what I always tell betters.
Speaker 4: If you're ever in that feeling that you're guessing and
you don't have conviction, you got to pass and reassess
because again you're now flipping a coin and you put
yourself in a no win situation.
Speaker 3: If the bet wins now you have a.
Speaker 4: Process that you have no sample size for that you're
going to follow because you won yesterday. If it loses
now you're going to try to figure something else out. No,
that's not the approach. Again, take a break and revisit it.
But because losing is part of the ride, even during
your most profitable runs, you're going to lose. If you
can't accept losing, you're never going to win. That to
me was the hardest thing to overcome. I wouldn't leave
the casino until I got even. That usually made me
go home and broke. I wouldn't let the weekend with
the bookie until I got even. That usually made me
a bigger hole than it would have been otherwise. That's
the stuff you need to over to avoid if you
want to survive this. Those are the demons we all
have to brush off every day, and that just comes
from experience. Brother, So just grind, grind, grind block. You
are fine, Bro, You're going through what every one of
us has to go through.
Speaker 3: Got to go through the fire, brother, to get to
the other side. That's all you're doing.
Speaker 4: You're just cooking right now, and the flames are up
a little bit too hot. Just got to turn them
dials down a little bit.
Speaker 2: You're good.
Speaker 3: You're good, bro.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm just add in their dissect your losses. What
happened yet? Is there a problem in the process. If
there's not a problem in the process, you're fine. But
if there's a problem in the process where you're really off,
where it was like, oh wow, my handicap was not
even remotely close, I beat the line in it still,
then you have to look at what's going on with
the process. The process is fine, then just you know,
keep moving forward. And also if you need to just
lower the volume or lower the lower the units.
Speaker 3: Yeah, show your confidence back me. I got crushed. I
got buried on Sunday. I had so much confidence in
the NFL playoffs. Sunday four and one, I'm.
Speaker 4: Like, we're rolling. I got buried. Every single bed I
placed went opposite me.
Speaker 3: And what did I do?
Speaker 4: Lowered volume. Now we're on Thursday, I'm sitting at ten
and three. I feel great going into this weekend. That's
what you need to do. That's a great call there,
and that was also one of my biggest mistakes. I'm like,
I lost that money firing twenty plays, so I need
to win it backfiring twenty plays. That's not the approach.
That was the mistakes I made, And now the hole
gets bigger and bigger and bigger. Most holes we find
ourselves in could have been covered up a lot sooner.
Speaker 1: Absolutely absolutely, so all right, Yanni, what do you have
up for everybody? It's Thursday, creeping out, football Friday, ready
to go.
Speaker 3: Today's team sheet is up.
Speaker 4: NFL, college football, NBA, and college basketball NHL will be added,
and college basketball totals as the day goes through.
Speaker 3: Saturday.
Speaker 4: NFL packages up. Sunday, NFL packages up.
Speaker 3: Monday.
Speaker 4: College football National Championship signing total is up. Player props
will be added as we get confirmation. I'm very close,
probably with in today whether I'm going to fire at
five percent in the NFL playoffs this week. Very close
to getting that confirmation. But like I said, coming off
a losing Sunday, so you know what that means. Bounce
back this week, big week ahead, and yeah, best of luck, keep.
Speaker 3: Grinding, manage risk correctly. You're gonna do just fine.
Speaker 1: Yanny the Greek, thank you for having your great, great conversation,
great discussion. As always, We'll see you tomorrow, Yanni, the
Greek everyone all this plays up at a wager talk
dot com. Seth asks any early action for the NBA
in Germany. Uh yeah, hey, Seth, Yeah, ask and you
shall receive. I just put up a here. I'll read
you the write up I put up. This is a
four percent prop for us. It is Jacquelandale Landale over
six and a half rebounds. This guy has been getting
seventeen rebound chances per game. He's getting twenty six minutes.
This team is just decimated with injuries and trade rumors
and everything. So Landale's been taking advantage of this at
alongside Jared Jackson, who's just not a very good rebounder.
And so when I'm looking at rebound chances, I want
the number to be about half. If it's less than half,
this is an auto play. If it's way less than half,
this is a must play. So seventeen rebound chances, that
number should be eight and a half. On rebounds instead
it's six and a half. So Landale over six and
a half rebounds would be your play in that game.
So all right, Normally, normally we do a little promo here,
but we have to go to Joe who's been killing
me in the green room.
Speaker 2: Going on and how are you man?
Speaker 4: Hi?
Speaker 1: Joe, Hey, what's up buddy?
Speaker 2: Hanging out?
Speaker 5: I'm all waiting for uh you know, waiting for a game.
I think, yeah, we're all good to go.
Speaker 1: Wait, just waiting for the Sony open to tee off. Hunh.
Speaker 5: That's got a couple of friends here. We're just we're
just hanging and uh waiting. You know, they can think
there's a football game coming up at some point here,
any I.
Speaker 1: Think there is a football game coming up. We're gonna
get Joe's Joe's thoughts on some of this line movement,
the championship game. We got NFM, we got NBA, Joe's
got all the girls. Uh, but we do have a
we have a special.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: This is a This has been a lot of fun
all week. A lot of you taking advantage of this.
But Joe and I are running the buy one, Get
one special, the who Who Who Hurricane Special where you
get seven days of Joe in mind plays. We're going
head to head on the big game. But we're gonna
build bankrolls this week. I Joe, come on, it's not
a fair fight. It's not a fair fight. I got
I have a four percent NBA play we just gave out, Joe,
I've got a four percent boxing play where eight and
one lifetime on boxing. We've got golf plays, we got NBA, NHL, NFL.
So that's just on my end hitting all of that
for the basically half priced. What what are you what
are you contributing for the weekend?
Speaker 2: Well, I got I am loaded.
Speaker 5: I'm not locked in Andy on three of these three
plays on the upcoming Divisional wild card. One of them
I'm about to make step it up from a four
percent to five percent because now that I have all
the data, Uh, this is this is gonna be my
favorite play of the week, no problem there, cash with
one of my favorite last night, the University of Texas
gets it done against Andy undefeated. No more. I have
another four percent college basketball play right now that is
locked locked it in last night, and you need to
hurry because this line will not be what it is
by the time you get to tip here. So also
a couple of NBA plays on a loaded card here tonight.
And needless to say, I might have a little something
for this game on I think there's a game on Monday, Andy,
I can't remember it. I think there's a game on Monday.
Speaker 1: You guys just have to know that you're gonna you're
gonna get Joe Spread's totals, You're gonna get my props
and my you know, off the beat pat sports. Just
know we might have conflicting plays on the mic. Indian again,
we may have conflicting plays, or maybe we end up
on the same side. But in all, in all seriousness, though, guys, uh,
this is a no brainer. They're letting us run it
for ninety nine dollars. That's the price of one handicapper
for seven days. You're getting two of us and we
have a huge weekend. You heard Joe's got a five percent.
I haven't even put my five percent in sea at
all sports, all percentages, all five percent plays, all four
percent plays, and all the sports that were running good
in So it's a it's a Miami Indiana combo. Who
would have so yeah, yeah, girls are actually that's enough charge.
Hurricane cheerleaders are gonna yeah, that's so great. So that's
on the that's on the specials page over at wager Talk.
So it's on the top to click on specials and
redeem it. So we're having a really good week. I'm
on the leaderboard for last seven days, so looking forward
to a big weekend. So all right, Joe, let's let's
get serious. Let's go to the nf NFL here Buffalo
and Denver. Janni just just talk to us. This line
is now flipped. It doesn't matter plus one minus one.
I mean, it's basically a pick them. I'm sure the
sharps would tell you, no, no, no, that one point means
means the world over under forty six. Interested in your take?
How do you break this game down?
Speaker 2: Well, I I listen.
Speaker 5: I think we all thought that very similar to Jacksonville
and how Jacksonville started out as a dog at home
against Buffalo last week and then eventually went off as
a you know, it was a two point favorite that
at some point that Denver money was going to come
in here and flip this and it didn't take as
long as it took Jacksonville to become the favorite. But
needless to say, Denver, right now, about one one and
a half, I did the best, the best damn betting
show in the entire world ever, at least in the
next last six minutes. Andy with Art to Caesar this morning,
and Art said Listen, he's still anticipating a ton of
public support for Buffalo to come in before this thing
kicks off over the weekend. And it makes sense, Listen,
Buffalo is going to be the public side here in
a big, big way.
Speaker 2: It doesn't mean it's the bad side. But I'm having
a hard.
Speaker 5: Time with the total in this game, Andy, because I'm
trying to figure out it seems like the perception is
Buffalo Denver, Sean Payton, Josh Allen, We're gonna get We're
gonna get some points in this game. I mean, they
just dropped fifty one total right with Jacksonville, and we're
talking about that was one of the best team against
the run in the NFL. They didn't run the ball
well Buffalo, and yet they still managed to score that
many points. I just don't see that happening here, though.
I do think home field advantage matters more as the
playoffs progress, Andy, I think this round especially is where
you're really gonna start to see an edge for a team,
and I think it all begins and ends with the
defense of Denver in this one. I'm having a hard
time getting to an over in here. And Listen, we
know that Josh Allen when he has faced elite defenses
this year, right, we're talking about the Falcons, the Texans,
the Steelers, the Eagles, these top tier defenses. Those games
were ugly. Buffalo went four and one to the under
in those spots, and they average fewer than twenty points
a game.
Speaker 2: Sean Payton is not going to.
Speaker 5: Let boone Knicks sit back there and drop it thirty
times a game. It's not going to happen. It's only
his second year, and I can assure you he'd much
rather establish the run against this Buffalo defense than ask
phone Knicks to do anything crazy. So when you put
it all together, I think this game is going to
be ugly. I think it's gonna be maybe the lowest
scoring game of the weekend. So the only way I
could look here, Andy is towards the under in this game.
Speaker 2: Between these two teams.
Speaker 1: It feels like the playoffs just kind of end up
being the ultimate, like like you can't fake it in
the playoffs, and it was like, oh, there's the real
Trevor Lawrence, Like, oh look who showed up. His shit
went down on fourth and one. It's just like that
stuff tends to happen, so It's kind of like who
gets exposed here? Bill's defense bo Nicks, who's been shaky.
I don't know, it could be interesting, but I like
your look on that. And yes, you are right. Sean
Payton is not going to let bo Nicks. No, I'll
huff the ball.
Speaker 2: Big J Harvey game, big.
Speaker 1: A RJ Harvey overs on Russia tips things like that.
Let's move to the NBA. We got a double header tonight.
Only in both these games, it really only looks like
one main guy is going to be out. Brunson's a
little banged up, He's doubtful. But we'll start with this
thunder Rockets game. Sengoon is back in the lineup, Durant
is healthy, Sga is healthy. Hart and Stein's the only
guy that looks like it may be out. And Okay,
see what a big revenge win that was over the Spurs.
I had that game. I read that game completely wrong.
We got OKAYC minus five. They've been sputtering here a
little bit. Maybe that Spurs game gets them back on track.
Over under two twenty two and a half. What do
you like in this game?
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not been good since the calendar turned, it's
not been good for really either of these two teams here.
They've kind of come back down to reality a little bit.
But Andy, we see this every nbason around this time
of year, right, the games aren't nearly as high scoring.
Defense kind of gets put on the back burner a
little bit. It's a marathon, not a sprint, right, Guys
kind of understand there's a lot of basketball still to
be played, and I think Okasee and Houston both kind
of took their foot off the gas a little bit here,
But this is a big spot. I mean, okay, see
just handled and finally figured out a way to beat
the Spurs a couple of nights ago in their own building,
and now another team they're likely going to have to
go through if they're gonna make another run of the
championship in the playoffs. The Houston Rockets, who have not
been shooting the ball well at all. Missing Segun was
a problem for a little stretch there, but they've had
him back for a couple of days and it can
tell the market any I'm seeing nothing but Houston money
coming in so far here today. The overnight look aheadline
here three and a half, four up to five and
a half in some spots. I'd like to think that
both of these teams are going to push the issue.
Here feels like an under but I think the home
team can handle business here. I think Durant's gonna be
laser focused, and I think the Rockets are gonna want
to get a little revenge from a year ago and
handle their business in front of their own home crowd.
Speaker 1: I feel like, with all these teams in the West,
just take the team with the points.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I bet, I bet, I bet if you start a
Rockets thunder yeah at home, you get a home dog.
I bet if you did that with all four of
these teams, I put Denver in there as well, you
probably come out at home dogs.
Speaker 2: Ironically and up Andy have been cashing it.
Speaker 5: I think a fifty seven to fifty eight percent clip
in the NBA so far this year, it has been
extremely profitable to back the home dogs in spots.
Speaker 1: Let's move to the Knicks and the Golden State Warriors.
If Golden State was a good team, like Steph would
be in the MVP DISCUSSI quietly, he's just he's averaging
twenty nine points per game, but his team kind of stinks.
It looks like Brunson's doubtful for tonight, so I'm not
sure we're gonna get him Golden State because of that
minus seven. You have fun laying minus seven with this
Golden State War Years team, because if you think they're
gonna win, just take Steph over his points because they
cover him by margin. Steph doesn't go for thirty thirty
five over under two twenty nine even with brunt snout.
No way I'm laying this one. What do you think?
Speaker 5: I mean, listen, not without their own drama here that
has nothing to do with Draymond. Ironically enough, Buddy, Uh
you know reports surfaced a couple hours ago Jonathan commed.
Speaker 2: Demanding a trade. Oh no, deanding a trade, oh Joe.
Speaker 5: So I'm telling you, I am sure that locker room
is up in arms right now. U. They couldn't figure
out a way to use him. It's kind of a
waste here. I mean, the kid's twenty three years old.
He sanday what a two year, forty six million dollar
contract in the off season, But it's just not a
good fit anymore.
Speaker 2: So it's time to move on.
Speaker 5: So I hope they figure out a way to get
something in return for Steph and Jimmy to work with.
Speaker 2: But having said that, the.
Speaker 5: Overnight line was three and a half, and then the
Knicks lose bruntson and then lose to the Kings.
Speaker 2: Of all teams here, I.
Speaker 5: Didn't think they should be laying eleven points against anybody
on the road, but I didn't think they'd lose out
right to the Kings. So now, if you don't have Brunson,
you'll have McBride, You'll still have enough firepower here. I
think the overreaction and we see it all the time here,
right Andy and the NBA oh star players out ye know, well,
how's that working for Denver because they seem to be
winning and covering games even though three quarters of their
team is hurt.
Speaker 2: Here, I feel like the same thing as here.
Speaker 5: I think the overreaction to Brunson likely not playing in
this game. I think it's much. But I'll tell you what,
I wouldn't want to sweat out an under in this game.
It feels like points are coming, and it looks like
the market is heading.
Speaker 2: Back to that over projection here.
Speaker 5: Wouldn't shock me if this thing close is closer to
two thirty than Underneath at two twenty eight or two
twenty eight and a half.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, listen, that was one of the worst
games in NIKEL play all year. I mean they run
off the court to the Kings. I mean one oh one,
one twelve they were, They were down by twenty two
going into the fourth. So you're right, complete overreaction. We
see this all the time, bad loss.
Speaker 5: Go from an eleven and a half point favorite and
now you're catching seven, seven and a half against it?
Speaker 2: Yeah against me?
Speaker 5: What twenty two and twenty nine, twenty two and nineteen
Warriors team, Like what are we?
Speaker 2: What are we doing here?
Speaker 1: I'm with you one hundred percent on that one. So, uh,
by the way, underrated story that's going on in the NBA.
You you mentioned the Nuggets. Have you been following them?
What's what's going on with them? With with this Peyton
Watson Like yep. Like we see this with teams where
like the stars go out and they're out for a
month and it's like, oh, you get some role players
that get more minutes and now all of a sudden,
Denver's just stumbled into this new weapon. This is like,
there's now now Denver. To me, when Jokis gets back,
Oh my god, this team's terrifying.
Speaker 5: Yeah, well, they can get valenceuns, but they gotta get healthier,
we know that. But the fact that they have a
winning record in the meantime while they a guy that
was clearly uh you know, MVP conversation guy's averaging a
triple double.
Speaker 2: You gotta be kidding me here.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 2: They hope to have them back sooner than later.
Speaker 5: But the fact that they've been able to weather this
storm with some wins and remain very relevant is priceless.
Speaker 2: I mean, and listen, you saw it with Sacramento too.
Speaker 5: I mean, not that people didn't know who Malik Monk was,
but he wasn't playing. Why Dennis Schroeder was starting for
the King. Schroeder threatens to beat up Dunchick, he gets thrown.
After three games, Monk comes in, and all of a sudden,
now the Sacramento Gags are on a winning street.
Speaker 2: Go figure.
Speaker 5: It is sometimes injuries, while not great on the surface,
andy could be exactly what some teams need to get
their season jump started.
Speaker 1: Here addition by subtraction. But yeah, this Peyton Watson thing
is in you know, you know, I do player props
Peyton Watson. His point total was like eight and a half.
Last night it was nineteen and a half. Nineteen and
a half on a Peyton Watson point total. So really
really amazing stuff. This Western Conference playoffs, man, is gonna
be really really fun.
Speaker 2: I can't wait.
Speaker 1: All right, money's come in on Indiana as expected. We
got to talk about our national championship game. I think
you and I both said, if you're betting Indiana, you
got to get in now. If you're betting on Miami,
just wait until you start to see money. You know,
it's been kind of quiet. There's not a whole lot
of big narrative, big stories coming out. Kind of a
low key, measured game. Maybe it comes, maybe it starts
on Monday. Any any other thoughts on this game.
Speaker 5: Well, it's interesting. You know the defensive coordinator Therman for Miami.
I don't know if a lot of people know this,
but his backstory is he was the DC at Minnesota
before coming here to Miami, but prior to that, he
worked with Signetti at JMU, so you know, we else
he worked with the offensive coordinator for JMU. These guys
happen to know each other pretty well. Andy. It's one
of those things that you know, goes Overloo because we're
so concentrated on the Indiana AARP discount that they're gonna
get considering they have nothing but fifty year olds on
this team up and down the roster. But besides that fact,
you've got a couple of coordinators that are very familiar
and have coached together. He coached the defense obviously against
that offense at JMU, very similar. So there's you know,
I think there's not gonna be a ton of surprises
in this game. So the question to me will remain
who's gonna win this line of scrimmage? Right, That's what
it's gonna be. Can Miami have success running the ball?
Indiana needs to have success running the ball as well.
You can't ask Mendoza to drop back forty times. Listen,
they have not had their back against the wall yet, right.
But if we look at a common opponent, Ohio State
for the Big Ten championship in Ohio State against Miami,
I think that's gonna be a lot closer to what
we're gonna see Andy than some sort of forty five
to seven heading into the four. Don't think that's gonna
be that way, but I can tell you talking to heart,
the Caesar up the Westgate. You'd be hard pressed to
find anybody showing up and looking to back Miami. He said,
it's one of the most public teams he can remember
in a very long time.
Speaker 2: Indiana.
Speaker 5: Wow.
Speaker 1: Really yep, man, that's all public money.
Speaker 2: By the way, oh, poblic money.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, the sharps having the Sharps are just gonna
wait until till this time. South Point move to nine.
So it's it's creeping up and creeping up. Just why
Indiana is the number one public team.
Speaker 2: It's crazy, right, What a difference to year makes? Wow?
Speaker 3: Wow?
Speaker 1: Uh, this is an interesting question. Does the kaminga trade
request somehow get Yannis once? Yah, this one's out. So
you'd have to do kaminga a lot of picks. But
you got to get the salaries that make sense, that's
the thing. So you'd have to give up a Draymon
or Jimmy Butler some kind of expiring. It would have
to be a healthy, healthy package. But it's you need okay,
another team. Yeah, it's not terrible. You got two trade requests? Correct,
somehow this might actually it's it's.
Speaker 5: Yeah, has already said he's never asking for a trade,
So I mean he was already adamant about I'm never gonna.
Speaker 2: Say I'm never gonna ask for a trip.
Speaker 5: No, you won't, but your agent, well, behind the scenes,
your agent will be saying, get me the hell out
of Milwaukee, please, as fast as humanly possible.
Speaker 2: And I don't blame him before being honest.
Speaker 1: You and I had a lot of fun with Lane Kiffin.
Can we simply replace that with Rich Paul doing a
podcast whipping his client's teammates.
Speaker 2: I mean, it's like, come on, is this one of
the comings? Yeah? Stupid.
Speaker 1: So I listened to The Ringer and Bill Simith's podcast,
and I listened when he announced that that Rich Paul
was doing a podcast, and I was like, can they
do that? Can you have an agent doing those sports
opinion podcast? Maybe they won't talk about the Lakers. Nope, nope,
we'll get out there.
Speaker 5: Might as well just rename it the Lakers Cast. Who
are we kidding here? And by the way, are you're
gonna get one of those lebron patches he's wearing every
game now?
Speaker 2: To get one of those? Andy?
Speaker 1: Uh, I'm good, I'm good. I'm I'm I'm a Lebron fan.
I I think he's I think what his career has
been has been nothing short of spectacular. Absolutely, you know,
no and and no off court incidents like biologomy.
Speaker 5: Well but yeah, but that's a different story. That's a
different podcast. You're right, sorry about that, totally different.
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, but this one is not aging. This one's
not going to age really well.
Speaker 2: So does he come back?
Speaker 1: What's that?
Speaker 2: Does he come back for the farewell tour?
Speaker 5: Or is this it?
Speaker 1: Lebron strikes me as a guy that would love a
farewell tour Lebron. Lebron strikes me as a guy that
would like the videos, like the gifts that at mid
court whatever, he's earned it. Some of these guys have
earned it, So I have no problem with the that
have carried league like him and Steph. So, Andy, you're
going down to South Florida and hanging with Joe. It
was a tough decision in the end. I do have
to hang out with my my college buddies that we
all graduated from IU. We watched the last game, so
we're gonna keep tradition and we're to go watch it there.
I will actually be doing the show from that place
because I'm pretty sure I need to get there when
it opens to get a table, uh, because that's an
that's an IU bar and restaurant. So I'll be recording
way to talk today from them.
Speaker 5: I've seen a few I you jerseys in town already
and he saw the your fan base is certainly showing
up to South Florida.
Speaker 1: They'll be there.
Speaker 2: I'm not still traveling.
Speaker 5: Into the building, but they are definitely in the area
of the stadium, which is good.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like like this is this is like I know,
this is like people someone that hit the lottery that
buys a sports car, like we have never had in
our plans to go travel to a National Championship game.
So I you this is like, this is incredible.
Speaker 5: Yeah, is going to beat Yes, I can promise you
that a lot of fans.
Speaker 1: Uh oh now in the chat. Now we've got the
trade rooms, wok at the Pels uniform Zion, Yes, Zion,
Trey Murphy. That's a pretty good building block.
Speaker 5: So yeah, yeah, that that would actually be really good.
You know what back it looked Miami too, you honest.
Speaker 2: Very good.
Speaker 1: Trade and washed up bam.
Speaker 5: Yeah, or just listen train of the Memphis straight up.
John Morant for.
Speaker 1: For John Jaron Jackson yeah, you could, you could, you
could do something with that. So all right, Uh, Joe,
we're gonna get out here. But Chris, can you pull
up that graphic again about the the Bye one Get
one special? It's maybe my favorite name of a special
we've ever done, The Who Who Hurricane special? You get
you get Joe and the Duck.
Speaker 4: Uh.
Speaker 1: The Joe and the Ducks plays along with mine for
one price. You're basically getting both of us for seven
days for half price, only ninety nine dollars all plays.
Joe has a five percent best bet that's up. We
have a four percent NBA play today, four percent boxing
do not sleep on our boxing plays? How did everyone
like that? Plus money cash last weekend? So go get
this one. It's an absolute no brainer. We're coming into
the weekend. If you haven't locked especially and go get
it now. It's on the specials page over at wager Talking.
Joe Teller on what you have a up right now.
Speaker 2: Let's go locked and loaded for this weekend.
Speaker 5: Divisional round, NFL five percent coming your way, four percent
college basketball, as well as a couple of NBA plays
ready to roll. So all available right now over at
wager Talk. Take advantage of this because I'm sure Andy
locked and loaded with the Sony Open as well.
Speaker 1: Yep, they're teeing off right now. Got a couple plays,
got a four percent best bet in there. You know me, Joe,
I have. We had plays on the Dubai Open that
teed off at midnight last night. This is this is
how we roll. We have tennis plays. Oh that's another thing.
You're gonna get all of our tennis players. The Australian
Open starts Monday, so you're not going to now you're
gonna get our first round plays.
Speaker 2: So center out.
Speaker 1: What's we'll close out with? Seth not a lebron fan,
but respect he's doing it forty one considering I wake
up with body aches and he's averaging twenty five points
per game.
Speaker 2: That's true. It's a good point. Sad, that's a good point.
Speaker 5: But in your defense, you've been waking up like that
for the last twenty years, so you.
Speaker 1: Also have two million dollars to spend on body. Body.
So all right, Joe, Monday, good luck to you, brother
to be awesome. Let's let's just hope for a I
hope for a great game. I'll be happy for you.
I'll be happier for me if we pull it out.
But it's gonna be great. We will definitely happier for that, Joe,
I'll be happier. Yeah. Are we going to do something
really stupid and make Joe and I be on the
show on Tuesday morning?
Speaker 2: That's gotta be I mean, it's at some.
Speaker 1: Point bloodshot eyes.
Speaker 5: Correct, it should be a national holiday Tuesday. But we'll
muster along. We'll definitely do it.
Speaker 1: Appreciate all right, I one get one myself and Joe.
Thank you, Joe, great breakdown. It's always good to talk
to you. All right, let's do all around the world
and then we'll wrap up. We get ready for football Friday.
My heart goes out to a good friend, Dan, who
is moving across the country today and tomorrow. So I
was at the doctor today having my knee looked at,
and I think I would rather be where I was
rather than he is. So all right, Chris, let's do
the free plays here. We got a couple of NBA ones,
and then we got a college basketball one from Ralph Michaels.
We'll go to Jazz and Mavericks. I've been talking a
lot about Nurkic going over his points laid off last game,
glad I did over twelve and a half. I think
is playable here tonight. The big thing is just how
thin Dallas is on their front court. Davis is obviously out,
Gafford's questionable, they got other another couple guys questionable. He
only had eleven points last game, but he had fifteen
plus the previous six games. So I actually think numbers wise,
this is a good matchup. With how thin Dallas is,
I'll take Nurkic to go over his points. We mentioned Lebron,
this number seems really low to me. Over five and
a half rebounds, he's gone over this in five out
of six, and he's averaging over ten rebound chances per game,
and he's very efficient with the rebounds. When he's around
the ball, he normally grabs it. There's other guys in
the NBA where they're they get credited for rebound chances,
but they're boxing out and letting teammates come in and
get it. Lebron jumps in and grabs the rebound, so
and then free picks. Page. This is Ralph Michael Special
College Basketball Georgia Southern minus six over Old Dominion. Old
Dominion is only four and thirteen and they've had one
hundred and thirty second rank schedule. Georgia Southern is going
to be the better arrested team. So we like Georgia
Southern laying the points minus six. All right. See, so
in theory, someone could buy the who Who Hurricane package
on Saturday, and I have Joe's five percent NFL and
Andy's five percent UFC and everything in between. Now we're
cooking with fire. Now we're cooking with fire. Seth knows
what's up, because yes, I have a five percent best
bet in UFC that's a week from Saturday. So yes,
if you want to wait until Saturday morning, you're guaranteed
to have several five percent best bets in there. Very
very well done. Seth should come on here and sell
this package for us. Appreciate it. So all right, guys,
let's going to do it for us. Great show, Chris,
thank you for stepping in for Dan. Please hit the
like button and leave us a comment below, tell us
what your best bet is today. Don't forget NBA starts
at two o'clock today. We got a Germany game. We
got golf in the afternoon, so we got a lot
of good sports in the afternoon and then get a
loaded slate tonight tomorrow. Football Friday goes off tomorrow myself.
You know the line up, Marco, Teddy, Janni. We're gonna
get you ready for a big, big weekend of NFL
and then of course we will talk the National Championship Game.
Thank you so much, chat, I always appreciate you guys.
Good luck on your bets and we'll see. I'm going tomorrow.
Take care,