Speaker 1: Fade in the NFL public is nine and three the
past couple weeks, sixty two percent this season. In the video,
I'm going to give you the six most public plays
here for week ten, coming up right here, right now. Hi,
it's the Steve Merrill water talk dot Com, right back
here on waitter Talk TV. Welcome to the week ten
edition of Fade the Public. If you're new to the video,
I'm giving you the most public sides in the NFL
each week and long term, if you fade them, you
do make money. It's worked well this season, but we
dive deeper and we decide if we should fade them
or play them because we use this as a filter
just part of the overall handicapping process. But as I mentioned,
after that one good week in which the public went
four to oh three weeks ago, it will gone nine
and three fading them since sixty two percent on the season.
And we've got six public plays this Sunday, November the ninth,
actually five on Sunday, one on Monday, that's right, the
Monday night game. And there's also a public dog alert
for this week. That's all coming up here. Let's go
down and schedule order here We'll start with the first
game at nine thirty Eastern early kickoff in Germany. Indianapolis
Colts minus six and a half a public side this week.
Now the six games, I'd say this is probably the
least public of the six. The Colts barely qualified, but
still a public selection nonetheless, and I did do a
standalone video for this game here earlier in the week
on wager Talk TV. By the way, click subscribe click
the bell for an incident. You'll never miss out when
a free play video is posted, So if you'd like
a deep dive, full analysis about five minutes worth on
this game, check out that video afterwards. But I do
like the Falcons in this game, and I would agree
with fading the public in this one. Once again, the
Colts are the public side. I think we do fade
the public here for a few reasons. First of all,
these European games are a bit random, So whenever we
can get the underdog in these games, a quality dog,
I think it's worth the look. And we definitely get
in some line value the look aheadline. This summer, the
Atlanta Falcons were projected to be a one and a
half point favorite this summer. That was a betable line.
Now they're a six six and a half point dog.
That's a full touchdown swing. Now the Colts are coming
off a misleading loss, I would like to land a
little bit more. I'd like fading the Colts a little
bit more, I should say, if they weren't coming off
a misleading loss. But they outplayed Pittsburgh last week twenty
seven to twenty. Despite a six to one turnover deficit,
they still only lost by seven points, so it could
be a little bit of a bounce back spot. But
I think the tough travel situation the gatesats somewhat. And
I also like the fact that the Falcons match up
pretty well in this game. Atlanta on the season has
one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. In fact,
statistically speaking, they're giving up just six yards per pass
this year against teams at average six point eight. The Colts, obviously,
Daniel Jones have thrown the ball well, but he struggled
last week against a suspect Pittsburgh pass defense. Jones had
three interceptions, his worst rating of the season sixty QB rating,
so maybe he's starting to regress. You know, we would
be waiting for the Wheels to come off. We talked
about Baker Mayfield earlier this year. Drake may maybe Daniel Jones,
all vastly outperforming recent years. So as Jones started their regress,
we'll find out. Falcons also run the ball well. They
have a good ball control offense. Colts are decent against
the run, but they have been suspect against the pass.
In fact, Atlanta rates is the better defense overall, allowing
just five point one yards per play. Colts give up
five point five. Colts give up less points, but yards
per play is a better metric. I think we have
a live underdog here at the Falcons plus six and
a half. And I would fade the public in this one.
Is the public is on the Colts. That's your early
game at nine thirty eastern Sunday morning in Germany on
NFL Network. All right, we'll keep it rolling here. We'll
go to the daytime card now at one o'clock eastern.
And another public side this week is the Carolina Panthers
minus the five and a half. And we always talk
about using this as a filter part of the overall
handicapping process. And one of the problems with fading the
public on the blind is you're aving on the ugliest
teams in the league and in general, I don't like
playing ugly teams. But one subset we don't talk a
lot about is when an ugly team is the public side.
And this is a rare occurrence where that's the case.
I don't think the public's necessarily all over Carolina. They
just want nothing to do with New Orleans. And keep
in mind the premise here is when you get one
sided action, the line becomes a bit inflated more than
it should be, and that's probably the case here. The
look headline this summer is four and a half. It's
now five and a half. But can we really trust
the Saints. They have three offensive linemen injured, missing some
skill position guys. True rookie quarterback second round pickout of Louisville,
Tyler Shruggins at quarterback for the third straight week. He
actually looked okay last week against the Rams. I know
they lost thirty four to ten, but he averaged seven
and a half yards of pass had an eighty one rating.
But he looked really bad against Tampa in his home
debut the week before that the end of October, fifty
three rating and just four point three yards per pass
overall so far this year, fifty six pass attempts, he's
averaged just five and a half yards of pass and
one touchdown two interceptions, very mediocre sixty three ratings. So
he does not look good so far, and on the road.
It is a downgrade against the defense here. Rams defense
is better than the Panthers. But the other problem is
the Saints have absolutely no rushing attack. They're a terrible
running team. They have run for seventy nine yards or
less than five of their last six games. Actually I'm sorry, yeah, yeah,
seventy nine or less and five their last seven, eighty
eight or less and six of their last seven. It's
hard for a rookie quarterback on the road to do
well when he has no run support here, So I'm
really not in a hurry to fade the public, although
I don't necessarily want to be laying points with a
mediocre Carolina squad who's also maybe in a letdown spot
after coming in off the two touchdown underdog win at
Green Bay. They played Buffalo before that. They've also got
Atlanta and San Francisco and the Rams on deck. Let's
just not worry about the sight of here. Let's look
at the total instead. I do think there's some value
with the under thirty eight and a half. I mentioned
how the Saints are likely going to struggle offensively in
this game with the rookie quarterback and a lack of
a running game, and Carolina can do enough, I think
defensively to slow them down. Panthers on the season averaging
five point seven yards per allowing five to seven against
teams that average five to seven. Saints are averaging just
four point nine, so a huge stepped down in class,
and both teams are about a yard per pass below
average throwing the ball. Both teams only average five and
a half yards passing this season, and both pass defenses
have been above average. Two passing tax are going to struggle.
The undermakes sense to me here under thirty eight and
a half between the Saints and Panthers at one eastern.
All right, next game? Also eas for next game on
the schedule is the Buffalo Bills minus nine and a half.
Now shot round. This line is nine in some spots,
nine and a half in others. I'm not sure we're
going to see that key number of ten, but if
you like the Dolphins, I would hold off and wait,
you might get that key number of ten by kickoff
on Sunday, since Buffalo is the public side here, and
there's about a four to five percent chance the Bills
win by exactly ten points here. I do lean towards
Miami in this game for a couple of reasons. First
of all, they had the many bye week after playing
the Thursday night game and it was a terrible show
in just six points against the Ravens. But keep in
mind they also had a three to nothing turnover deficit.
In fact, Miami's had three turnovers and more and three
of their last four games and they've gone one in three.
They lost all three of those games. Their only win
was against Atlanta when they had no turnovers, and they
look great thirty four to ten. So it's going to
come down to turnovers in this game. That's always a
little bit unpredictable. But I do think Miami's a little
bit better than their overall numbers indicate because they haven't
turned the ball over. Meanwhile, the Bills have one turnover
or less in six of their eight games this year.
They have no turnovers in five of their eight games,
including a very strong performance last week against Kansas. City.
But now this is perhaps a letdown spot after back
to back losses. They bounced back with that Carolina win
big Kansas City win last week, and now they have
a look ahead with the Tampa Bay Bucks on deck
next week, followed by Houston and Pittsburgh. Could be a
little bit of a flat spot here. So I do
think we could maybe fade the public here with the
Dolphins plus nine and a half. I'd prefer to get
plus ten, though you might want to wait out. But
I also want to look at the total in this game,
as I think the over fifty has some value here.
Buffalo should be able to move the ball against a
terrible Miami defense, but the Dolphins probably have to get
to twenty twenty one points as well to get this
game up and over. And if you look at recent weeks,
I know they scored six against Baltimore and they scored
six against Cleveland, but if you look at their other
four games during that span, they scored twenty four points
or more than the other four games. So I do
think they can get to the total in this one.
And after that Cleveland game, they came back with that
excellent Atlanta game thirty four points. No turnovers and after
a mini bye week playing the Thursday game, I think
the offense will play better in this one. I lean Dolphins.
I'd fade the public in this one, but I'd also
look at the over fifty in this It's a big total,
but fifty one is the key number. I currently see
fifty to fifty and a half forty nine and a
half as long as it stays fifty and a half
or less. I like the over between the Bills and
Dolphins at one o'clock eastern. All right, let's keep grinding
here with the fade the public selections. The next couple
games are both on the four o'clock Eastern. Start Seattle
Seahawks minus the seven. Now Seattle's minus six and a
half in some spots their minus seven anothers. Obviously, seven
is a very key number, about a four to five
percent chance Seahawks win this game by exactly seven points.
So I would wait. If you like Arizona, if you're
looking to fade the public here, I would wait and
get a plus seven, but there are some are already available. Meanwhile,
if you like the Seahawks, you want to grab that
six and a half sooner than later. As I don't
think it's going to last too long. And we're already
seeing sevens pop on the board. So this is another
example of when you play game earlier late. If you
like Seattle, you play it sooner than later. If you
can get to six and a half, if you like
the Cardinals, you wait and get the plus. And last
week you'll recall it the Cowboys one of the most
public plays of the week Monday Night Football fading the Cardinals.
I gave you the Cardinals here in the video, also
did my Monday Night free play video. I recommended the
Cardinals as well, and they won the game outright. And
Jacoby Brissett, you know, we talked about him having better
numbers this year than Kyler Murray, and he played well
another QB rating of over one hundred back to back week.
So this Cardinal offense is moving the ball with Persett.
And so instead of looking at the side in this game,
let's walk once again look at a total play. And
I do think the over is in play in this
one between the Cardinals and Seahawks. Open forty four and
a half, but the sharp money has pushed it up
to forty five, even forty five and a half. At
some of the Sharper books now two to three percent
chance the game lands on exactly forty five, so you
do want to shop around here. Forty five is available.
The Sharper books have forty five and a half. I
like over forty five in this game between Arizona and Seattle.
I agree with that sharp money move, as I think
both offenses will have success. Seattle's had one of the
best passing attacks in the league this year nine point
three yards per past seventy percent completions, Darnold having a
great season. Cardinals do have a good pass defense, though,
so I maybe take a little bit of a look
at them at plus seven if you want to fade
the public. But their overall passing numbers have been better
with Persett, and I think they'll have some success throwing
the ball in this game as well. Once again, the
Seahawks are a pretty public side here, and while the
Cardinals I think might be a little underrated. I liked
them on Monday Night. I gave them to you in
both videos last week. Now it's a short week, having
to travel, it's not quite as a good setup, so
I think the over forty five might be the safer
play in this game at four o'clock eastern. All right,
Another public play goes at four to twenty five east
and above the six games this week, this is actually
the most public play. You know, a lot of times
they're all kind of the same, but this week there
was one game that stood out among the rest. The
most public play this week is the Detroit Lions minus
the eight and a half to minus nine. Even minus
eight out there shop around Detroit on the surface does
appear to make a pretty good teaser play taking them
down to minus two and a half or less. So
that's why some books have eight eight and a half
others have nine plus money because they don't want you
to be able to tease it down below that key
number of three. By the way, I did a standalone
video for this game Lions Commanders, earlier in the week.
It's here on the channel as well as if you'd
like a deep dive analysis four to five minute deep
dive analysis, check out that video afterwards. But the Lions
are the most public side this week. However, I'm not
in a hurry to fade them just because it's a
focused spot. They're coming off that loss last week against
the Vikings. You know the public went zero to four
last week on the public favorites, fading them went four
to oh. One of them was Detroit last week. Public
don't care. They're coming right back with the Lions, although
it's more so a fade of not my Washington Commanders.
Commanders have lost four to rows straight up and against
the spread, and I actually thought they were in decent
spots the last two weeks against Kansas City and Seattle,
and they still lost by twenty one and twenty four points. Now,
of course, Jayden Daniels got hurt on Sunday night with
the elbow injury. That means he is out Marcus Mariota
back under center. He's been very mediocre in limited action
the last two seasons, a huge downgrade between without Jayden
Daniels here. That's another reason I'm not in a hurry
to fade the lines, even though they're very public. I
did point this out of my video. With the standalone video,
we had a top over underseason wins playing the Commanders
under nine and a half. That was my top NFL
season future wins future this year. Currently they are at
three and six. I just need two more losses here
over the next eight games. They only have to go
two and six over the next eight, or they'd go
six and two over the next eight, we still cash.
So it's looking pretty good and they should drop this
game as more than a touchdown home dog. So pretty
good situation here to cast the season wins play. But
once again, I just don't know what to make of
this side here. Detroit's in an excellent bounce back spot,
but you're laying a premium in fact, to show how
inflated this line is. The look ahead line this summer
was Commanders as a slight home favorite Washington. It was
about a one and a half point home favorite this summer.
Now they're an eight and a half point home dog.
Huge adjustment, almost a ten point adjustment. And they were
in the NFC Championship game last year, and I think
they were vastly overrated last year. That's why we faded
them with that strong underseason wins play, and it's going
to cash in. It looks like, but you know, four
straight losses, this point spread is inflated. However, I'm not
in a hurry to fade a quality team off the loss.
So what I think might be the best way to
play this game is a team total with Detroit twenty
nine and a half. And here's the reason why. Yes,
they've scored twenty four or less and three straight games,
but they're taking a huge step down now against one
of the worst defenses in the NFL. And while the
Commanders might be able to score as well against Detroit,
it's also, by the way, playoff revenge for the Lions
after losing the NFC divisional game that put the Commanders
in the championship game last year. And then on top
of that, we don't know what we're going to give
the Commanders offense with Marcus Mariota under center and Jayden
Daniels hurt. So let's just take them out of the
equation to look at the Lions over twenty nine and
a half. If you look at Detroit this year in
focused spots, they've done pretty well statistically speaking, and they've
scored some points. In fact, if you look at their games. Yes,
I said twenty four or less the last few weeks
when they've been coming off of those losses recently as well,
but Detroit otherwise has put up some points this year.
I'll pull it up right here for you. Now, I
had a second go I lost. I got so many
games in front of me this week, getting confused. Here,
there we go. The Lions offense had that first game
against Green Bay in which they only scored thirteen bad showing,
and then they won four straight in which they scored
thirty four points or more fifty two, thirty eight, thirty
four to thirty seven. In fact, their only win this
year in which they scored less than thirty four points
was the twenty four to nine win against Tampa, and
there are other four wins this season They've scored at
least thirty four points or more every time. The Commanders
have one of the worst defenses in the NFL, particularly
bad against the pass, a terrible pass defense. This season,
They've really been unable to stop anybody through the air.
In fact, if you look at their numbers and opponents
played on the season, the Commanders were given up eight
point four yards per pass against teams that averaged just
seven point one. And of course, Jared goffin company a
great passing attack seven and a half yards per pass,
six yards per play, and overall Detroit's averaging thirty points
game this season. So I see no reason why they
can't get up in over twenty nine and a half.
Let's just take the Commanders out of the equation on
Sunday at four twenty five Eastern. All right, those are
your five games for Sunday night. There's one game on
Monday Night Eagles and Packers. And guess what, ding ding
red flag alert that is a public underdog. Play Philadelphia
Eagles or a public dog this week and we will
look to fad them in this game with the Packers.
I think it's a good bounce back spot for Green
Bay once again. I did a standalone video on this game,
deep dive five minute video for Monday Night football. I'll
give you all the Thursday Sunday Monday Night games for
free here in the channel each and every week. Hope
you're finding it useful. And by the way, if you
are finding it useful, quick thumbs up like is all
I ask, and I will keep them coming easy underwinner.
With that ten to seven Broncos game on Thursday, means
we are now nine and two nine and two this
year on the free Thursday night prime games Sunday Night Football,
Charger Steelers. That video is right here on the channel.
Watch it after this one free playing the Sunday Night
game between the Chargers Steelers with some key injury information
the way in that game, and also a standalone video
for Monday by Football Eagles Packers. I'll give you a
quick synopsis of what I said in that video. First
of all, the Eagles are a public dog. If you're
new to this video, I talk about we use subsets
here as a filter with fade the public information. Well,
my favorite subset, as most of you know, is fading
public dogs. First reason is that the public is usually
on favorites. They play overts in favorites, so when they're
on a dog, it's an extra red flag. It's unusual. Plus,
we get a quality team when we're fading a public underdog,
because by definition, we're getting the better team that's favored.
We're not playing one of these ugly ducklings like the
Saints or the Dolphins or the injured Commanders. We're getting
a quality team. In fact, the Packers might be the
best team in the NFC. Eagles are defending Super Bowl champs,
and yes, they had that quality win earlier this year
at Kansas City, but they've looked suspect at times as well,
and they're coming off of bye week. Normally you'd say
the bibe is probably a good thing, and it might
be here for Philly, but they did get back to
back wins straight up and against the spread after those
two losses, so I'm not sure they necessarily needed the VIBE.
Looks like a bigger bounce back spot for green Bay
after that two touchdown favorite loss against Carolina last week.
They had one other loss this season. That was back
in Week three against Cleveland thirteen to ten. If you
recalled Cleveland, green Bay was a very public play in
that game, and I told you in this video and
they even used it as a best bet for my
clients at wager talk dot com the Cleveland Browns in
that game, as it was a huge sandwich letdown spot
for green Bay. They're coming off the opening season, went
against Detroit Division rival, the Thursday night National TV winner
against the Commanders, and then they had the look Ahead
Sunday night game against the Cowboys that was a huge
letdown spot as a touchdown non conference road favorite, and
they dropped that game. They also tied against Dallas, although
I thought they outplayed the Cowboys, they probably should have
won that game and still put up forty points then
won three in a row after that until last week,
in which they were in another sandwich spot against Carolina.
They were coming off the big Sunday night come from
behind win at Pittsburgh against Aaron Rodgers with this huge
look ahead Monday night game against the Eagles. Well, they
laid another egg. Is more than a touchdown favorite against Carolina.
But if you look last time they were in that situation,
they bounce back strong forty points against Dallas and then
three straight wins after that. I think it's the same
situation here. I like the Packers minus the one and
a half fade the public dog in this one. I
think we're getting the better team in a basic straight
up win situation. But I also would recommend taking a
look at the Packer team total over twenty three and
a half. If you look this year in Dallas and
the Green Bay's two losses ten points and thirteen points
in those flat spots against Cleveland and Carolina, but they
have scored twenty seven points or more than their other
six games. They're five wins in a tie. They've scored
twenty seven or more every time in those six games.
I like the spot here, and I think the Philly
defense is not nearly as strong as it was last
year when they made that Super Bowl run. In fact,
statistically they're very mediocre this year five point five yards
per play against teams allow five point six. They give
up twenty three points a game on average. To a
schedule that averages twenty four and a half, Packers are
averaging almost twenty six points a game. I like the
over team total over twenty three and a half in
this one. I think it looks way too low. It's
a bounce back spot for green Bay. That would be
my recommendation for Monday night football. I would fade the
public dog here and look at the Packers either the
side or the team total in this one, however you
want to cut it. That's eight to fifteen Eastern Monday
Night on ESPN and ABC. WHOA six public plays this week.
Last couple weeks has been six fad in the public
went five and one, and then four and two, nine
and three combined. We will be the third straight week
fad in the six plays as profitable we shall find out. Hey,
I don't pick them. I just give you the information
and I try to give you as much analysis as
possible and let you know which way I would lean
you do the same. Drop your opinions below in the comments.
What sides or totals do you like in these games? Hey?
What other NFL sides are totals? Maybe some player props
you're looking at here in week number ten, I truly
read the comments and I reply back include some analysis.
If you have time, let's learn and earn and win
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